Christian Kirk revealed at his pro-day yesterday that he’ll be working out for the Seahawks.
It’s an interesting nugget of info because it puts another prospect on our radar. Kirk, a receiver, isn’t likely to be an early round target at the expense of aiding the running game or adding a pass rusher. There is a scenario, however, where he could become an option.
Unfortunately, it means bringing up the possibility of an Earl Thomas trade again.
The Seahawks are extremely limited with just the #18 pick and then nothing until #120. They’ll almost certainly move down in the first round but what they’ll get in return is debatable. In recent years they’ve been able to collect third and fourth round picks. That kind of a return isn’t going to shift the early round focus from fixing the running game (Pete Carroll yesterday reaffirmed it’s the off-season priority).
If they traded Earl Thomas to gain a pair of second rounders — or an early second and an early third (to potentially move back into round two) — it opens things up.
The second round is where a lot of the value is going to be in this draft class. Picking twice or even three times in that round would be a huge boost for a re-tooling team.
Getting two picks for Thomas and then potentially moving back from #18 could be a plan of sorts. There’s a lot of draft fantasy going on here I know. And we’re no clearer to knowing if a trade for Thomas is a.) likely b.) a good thing or c.) going to get the kind of return to make this possible.
Two or three picks in round two, however, would enable you to address the running back position in the sweet-spot for that group (25-50). You could look at the options on the defensive line and at safety (Jessie Bates III and Justin Reid are considered borderline first or second round picks). And the offensive line would remain a possibility.
Receiver could be an option too.
It’s not a good draft for the position overall. Seattle’s willingness to look at receivers in free agency is testament to that. Reportedly they’re set to meet with Brice Butler next.
So why would Kirk be a fit?
For starters, it comes back to what we were discussing yesterday. Attitude and being all about football.
Here’s a section from Kirk’s NFL.com bio written and sourced by Lance Zierlein:
“Scouts like his mental makeup and desire to compete…”
“Kirk is a well-built, mentally tough slot target whose game is built around pace more than explosiveness.”
So in terms of being a competitor with grit, Kirk ticks that particular box.
It’s very difficult to find a negative review of his game. For example, Bob McGinn’s anonymous sources describe him as a ‘big time player’, adding he’s ‘well-built’ with ‘good hands’ and ‘extends and lays out’.
He’s graded in rounds 2-3 by Zierlein and McGinn’s sources seem to consider Kirk a borderline first or second round pick.
The Seahawks have regularly drafted receivers that run in the 4.4 range. Kirk ran a 4.47 at the combine. They’re not tied to a particular size or frame — drafting a wide variety of body types over the years. You can’t get much different than Kris Durham, Tyler Lockett, Paul Richardson and Amara Darboh. They all ran the same kind of forty, however.
He’s a deep threat, capable of getting open while also offering some special teams dynamism as a returner. If he’s as competitive as the reports suggest, he might be a willing blocker (important in Seattle) although it’s not something he had to do in college.
One area he also seems to excel is the scramble drill. Quite often he was able to break coverage and become invisible downfield, often presenting a wide open target for a quarterback on the run.
He seems like a very focused individual during interviews.
It’s very easy to see why the Seahawks are showing interest. He’s an X-factor playmaker with good character.
Seattle appears to want some game-breakers at receiver to compliment a running game and make the most of play-action opportunities. Kirk would fit into that category. If they wanted to bring him in, however, they might have to do some further roster re-shaping first to gain further draft stock.
Why are the Seahawks looking at quarterbacks?
Last week John Schneider was stood in the rain watching Sam Darnold’s pro-day. He then took a private jet to Wyoming to go and see Josh Allen.
A year ago Ian Rapoport posted this tweet during the 2017 draft:
#Packers considering a QB at No. 33. #Seahawks may have taken Mahomes. Chiefs traded way up to take Mahomes. The Ron Wolf tree loves QBs.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 28, 2017
And now this tweet from Bucky Brooks via Rob Rang (left in to add some context):
Former Seahawks scout who is still tight with plenty in that building… Interesting… https://t.co/bEIvlJHJmU
— Rob Rang (@RobRang) March 28, 2018
So what’s going on?
Probably nothing all that spectacular really. At least not yet.
The Seahawks have a big negotiation coming up in 12 months. Russell Wilson will be in the last year of his contract. Seattle has turned over a significant chunk of the roster in an attempt to get younger, cheaper and more competitive.
Cap space won’t be a problem. They’re set to have about $100m next season. They’re unlikely to want to go absolutely nuts on a Wilson extension, however.
Jason La Canfora recently wrote an article discussing the situation:
“… from afar this still seems like some sort of feeling-out process is going on, that maybe both parties are still sizing each other up, perhaps, and trying to determine what the future holds.
“In the next year we’ll learn a lot more about the direction of this team, how quickly they can get back on track, how heathy Wilson emerges from the 2018 season, how confident he can be in the group of men entrusted to block for him. Will the Seahawks be talking about a five-year deal worth $30M a year for Wilson come this time a year from now? If not, will there be trade rumblings? (Given the supply/demand problems in the quarterback market, a hypothetical Wilson trade would have to be the blockbuster to end all blockbusters, right?) Is Carroll, the oldest coach in the NFC, inching closer to retirement by then if this team is outside the playoffs again?
“Personally, I have a hard time seeing a generational talent at quarterback like this leaving the team that originally drafted him in his prime, and Schneider has displayed the ability in the past to kickstart a rebuild with a single draft. I wouldn’t bet on him being down for long, but with the draft just over a month away and spring finally upon us, the Seahawks can’t be considered among the handful of Lombardi favorites for the first time in a long time, and much work remains to be done to return to the lofty perch their fans have come to expect during the Carroll/Schneider era.”
So there’s a lot to be decided. And John Schneider is working the pro-day circuit.
A lot of this seems to be the Seahawks covering their bases. They’re not going to draft a quarterback at #18. It’s about being ready for all eventualities. Let’s say Jackson dropped into round two and Seattle, somehow, had multiple picks in that round. Suddenly it might be a more viable pick. And then you create leverage. You have a Plan B. You can make a decision on whether you want to pay Wilson $30m a year or whatever it’ll be by the time talks come around.
Green Bay benefitted from planning ahead with Aaron Rodgers. So did New England with Jimmy Garoppolo.
This is the time you prepare for all eventualities. This is when you do your homework.
Otherwise you just end up being the Panthers in 2010 — taking Jimmy Clausen in round two without even knowing all that much about him.
It doesn’t mean they’re about to trade Russell Wilson. It doesn’t mean they’re set for a divorce in the next year or two. It does mean the Seahawks are leaving no stone unturned. Which is a good thing.
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Downfield blocking by the WRs is one of those under the radar strengths the Hawks had in the 2012-2014 years with Tate, Kearse and Baldwin. I can understand the Hawks want to get back to that and Kirk seems to fit the mold with the ‘all football’ attitude.
You heard it here first! How do PC/JS plan to fix the run game and keep it healthy? Draft Saquan Barkley. How do they plan on drafting Barkley? Trading Russell Wilson to the Cleveland Browns for the 1st overall and 4th overall plus 33. Seahawks either slightly trade down to a QB hungry team and hope Giants trade out or pass on Barkley and take him 4th overall, while acquiring multiple future picks and later picks. We get our new Beast Mode in Barkley, along with a new game manager Russel Wilson clone in the role of a Game manager and winner in JT Barrett later in the draft. Plus all the players we pick up with the trades. Talk about retooling!
No just no!!!!
Ha, ha. That’s a good one. Nobody is going to give that trade value for Wilson.
Seem to recall us getting a first from the Bears for Fricking Rick Mirer, and 2 firsts for Joey Galloway from Jurrah, also seems like Rams got a mountain of picks (3 firsts and a 2nd) from skins for #2 pick in order to draft Griffin. So never say never and never say nobody
Not that I’m advocating trading Russell Wilson, I’m not. I believe not only is he a Franchise QB, but that one day he will be a HOF QB, and I kind of like to keep those.
“Seahawks trade down to a QB hungry team”… as we enter the draft without a single QB on the roster
???
Pretty sure Russell is on the roster…
He’s talking about trading Russ for all of those picks
JT Barrett is no Russell Wilson clone. He’s a reasonably good athlete but a poor downfield passer. And yes, I’m an OSU grad and I’ve watched him for years.
That’s almost as good of an idea as trading earl. Trade b wagz and Doug while your at it.
Think of the picks!!!! Even the browns will be envious.
/sarcasm
Think the Seahawks would also need to get Tyrod Taylor or something for the trade to be willing for the Seahawks.
I think Barkley is a very good back, but I thought Elliot was better coming out of OSU. I don’t get the talk about trading up to draft him, not at all, I don’t think any running back is worth that. I consider Barry Sanders to be the best ever to play the game, and he never won a championship. I am not devaluing the running back position, but other positions on the field are of more importance in my opinion.
Some team will be happy to get Barkley, but if a team were to trade up to get him, I think they will walk away disappointed.
+1
Totally agree on Barry Sanders. In my book, the best running back to ever play the game. Look at what he did running behind those awful Detroit Lions O-lines. I always speculate about what would have happened if Emmitt Smith was in Detroit and Barry Sanders got to run behind those Cowboys’ O-lines. Emmitt Smith would have faded into obscure trivia, and Barry Sanders would have ended his career with 15K to 20K yards, a record pundits would claim would never be touched.
Great write up Rob. After hearing some things yesterday:
A. Pete mentioning Carson/Davis will compete for the #1 spot (I’m guessing a rookie will too)
B. Schneider mentioned the unlikeliness of a 3rd contract (Earl Trade)
C. Boykin’s release and possible interest in a vet like Butt-Fumble (Schotty guy)
I can see the potential of grabbing a QB earlier than later and grooming. No team has lost out on grooming a backup and trading him…
The Jets are going to have a surplus of QB’s after the draft. Teddy Bridgewater has a team friendly contract and might be worth trading for as Wilson’s backup. The article seems to suggest we are looking for leverage in contract negotiations. The Seahawks will not find much leverage in the draft at the QB position. These kids will not get enough chance to play.
Kid’s got some Golden Tate to his game. And some Tyreek.
I agree with the Golden Tate comparison. He has that explosive Might Mouse style of playing. The fact he benched 225 20 times at a stocky 5-11 200 should tell us a lot about his powerful explosive style.
I am impressed with Kirk. He may not blow people away with his size and and straight line speed, but his highlight videos does illustrate his quickness, and elusiveness. I am especially impressed with his ability to return kicks. He certainly has that big play dimension. Indeed, Golden Tate comes to mind as a comparison. I give him a mid second round grade.
I agree Rob – I think they’re doing due diligence on all players. If the player(s) they want aren’t there when they pick, they still have to be prepared to take another player who has similar draft value. So if Rojo/Chubb aren’t there after they trade down to say #40, then be prepared to take a different player with the best value at the #40 range. Could be DL, LB, DE or even WR.
I still think Kerryon is in play too. And wouldn’t rule out other RB’s.
Rob, how does planning for all eventualities include scouting Allen and Rosen? That is a very lofty eventuality unless the team IS actually considering a trade of Wilson… how else could we ever be in range (picks 1-2) for those scouting trips to matter?
I’m not saying it’s happening, or is even possible… I’m just trying to make sense of the fact that during the busiest time of year, John Schneider cleared his schedule to scout two players he will never come close to drafting…
Thoughts?
I think it goes back to the point in the piece about Jimmy Clausen. He was a much weaker talent than Darnold and Allen. However, the Panthers drafted him in round two after a big fall and then admitted they hadn’t done as much work on him as they should because they never expected him to fall.
So if there’s an option of a.) going to the pro-day or b.) sitting in your office — you might as well go.
I guess they really mean “no stone left unturned” when they say it.
I read somewhere that Al Davis use to scout all the top qb’s no matter if they were looking for a qb or not. Wonder if Schneider is doing the same.
I don’t know if you’ve ever seen the ESPN 30 for 30 called “Elway to Marino”, but it’s a really good watch. That story kind of alluded to Davis not knowing a whole lot about Elway, specifically in regards to his arm strength.
I think there are a few other factors to consider here.
One, there are other players at these pro days besides the QBs. If you’re there, obviously you’ll check them out and form your opinion in case they fall, you have an opportunity to get them down the road in free agency, etc. You’re also looking at the other guys, both the bigger name guys from USC and possibly finding some UDFA talent at Wyoming.
Two, maybe John is carrying out a little due diligence on his own scouting staff? If Pete needs to hold his coaches accountable, Schneider should be doing the same for his scouts. Maybe he was checking out these pro days to compare his grades for players with his scouts and see if they match up. Always compete.
+1
The other part of it is, how many times have we heard stories of scouts going to a pro day to scout a player only to have another player stand out that they weren’t even really considering before. It happens all the time.
I would think opposition scouting plays a role too. Never hurts to get a “free” look at a guy you may play next year – maybe 2x if he ends up in your division.
Even if you don’t draft him you are going to have to play against him.
Since he was pretty cheap, I wanted DeShone Kizer from the Browns a couple weeks ago. He was a 21 year old rookie on a terrible team. Maybe he’ll be ready in a couple seasons.
Is Lamar Jackson a lot better than Kizer?
I would say he’s a lot better personally. I wasn’t a big fan of Kizer’s at all.
Isn’t Kizer traded to packers?
Schneider scouting top QBs reminds me of New England drafting high developing and moving on QBs for profit.
Not sure what profit they got from Garapollo, didn’t they spend a 2nd rounder on him, and when they traded him didn’t they just get a 2nd rounder?? not much profit there
I think the patriots got a few wins from him while Brady was suspended. I bet at that time they thought he was worth it.
You could argue they would’ve had a franchise QB for years to come if it wasn’t for Tom Brady being a football god.
Plus they made a clear error not to deal him the year before when the price would’ve been much higher.
Not all second round picks are created equally silly billy.
Its like a full round of difference.
Jesus. Really trying to paint a pats native 2nd as equal to a 49ers native 2nd
Ta-rippin’
They got a draft pick 25ish spots higher 3 years down the road. Not sure that’s a big win in value. Rob’s point holds true though, he gave them a backup plan for QB, which is awesome. They just weren’t able to take full advantage of his value.
Are you KIDDING
Thats a big return imo.
Especially given they had an elite backup for the downtime
That’s a very good return. Most draft picks are dealt a few years down the road for a conditional 6th or something.
How would you feel if I told you could lease a car, drive it for three years, then get MORE money back than you paid for it three years ago?
Ethan Pocic vs Deion Jones
A WR that IMO is currently extremely under-rated that has + production & tested pretty well at the combine is WR-Cedrick Wilson of Boise St. who went off for 10 catches & 221-yds in their bowl game against Oregon and really caught my eye. Currently Wilson is ranked #184-overall, projected Rd-5/6 as #23 out of 314 WR’s at nfldraftscout.com & he is variously ranked by most sites as a middle Rd-4 to late Rd-5-ish prospect. He may need to add some bulk and get stronger but the reasons I think Cedrick Wilson is under-ranked and underrated are as follows;
(1 ) Production: -2017: 14-games, 83/1511/18.20-ypc/7-TD’s, 5.9/rec-game, 107.9/yds-game.
& 18/465/25.83-yds – on KO returns; Situational stats: 58-for 1-st downs, 39/15+ yds, 22/25+ yds.
#2 in FBS with 1511-yds season total, behind only WR-James Washington.
#5 in FBS with 58 receptions for 1-st downs
#1 in FBS with 39 receptions of 15+ yds.
#1 in FBS with 22 receptions of 25+ yds.
Per: http://www.cfbstats.com/2017/leader/national/player/situational01/category03/sort01.html
FILM: https://www.fanragsports.com/boise-states-cedrick-wilson-best-wr-no-one-talking/
—Career: 27-games: 139/2640/18.99-ypc/18-TD’s +31/742/23.94-ypc/0-TD’s as KO returner.
(2) Combine #’s: 6-022/188, 31.5″/arms, 9.75″/hands, 4.55/40, 9-reps, 37″-vert, 10′-1″/broad, 6.89/3-cone, 4.23/20-yd shuttle, 11.48/60-yd shuttle. (#8-WR with 37″-vert, #7-WR with 11.48/60-yd), #7-WR in SPARQ rankings with a pSPARQ of 114.9 & NFL% of 47.3.
(3) Bloodlines; Cedrick Wilson SR., his father, played in the NFL and was a SB champion. I never ever
discount bloodlines as these kids grew up with NFL football athletes as mentors & they should know all about how to be a successful NFL player.
IMO-….IF, Cedrick Wilson was available with one of their 5-th round picks, he needs to be drafted by the Seahawks there, allowing the major needs to be drafted first. Kirk would be a nice WR, but I can’t see them spending the higher picks in that manor considering the running game & pass rusher needs that must be filled with those higher picks (currently 1 in Rd-1 & 1 in Rd-4 w/o trades). Kirk would be potentially a nice piece of the puzzle, but with somewhat similar WR’s in Baldwin & Lockett,
I would think Kirk would be defined as a luxury pick unless they end up with numerous high picks and
have filled their other needs of more importance.
Those positions don’t HAVE to be filled with early selections. Likely though, yes.
Just because you see draft media say ‘hearing NFL scouts have him ranked as a 2nd rounder’ does not mean that’s how the HC and GM view him. Their grades are final and different from the scouts.
I’ve had the opportunity to watch Cedrick play a lot here in Boise. This kid is a very good player and I completely agree with picking him up in the later rounds. He will make a good pro WR, he 1) has very good hands, doesn’t drop many balls, 2) frequently gets open by running good routes, 3) is sneaky fast, even though he didn’t test great, 4) is a good kid, never in trouble.
We have to many other needs to invest a 1-4 round pick on WR this year, especially when none of them are considered elite talents.
Great info JimQ! If Wilson lasts til day 3 he’ll be a bargain! This WR class lacks the first round talent, but does have some depth. Would be cool to get a guy like Wilson-think he’d be a good fit. Hes gotta get that 40 time under 4.5- that seems like the PC/JS benchmark for WRs.
@dpbrugler
#Texas DT Poona Ford (one of this year’s top Combine snubs) has a top-30 visit planned with the #Seahawks.
What is a “top-30 visit” ?
It means he’s visiting the VMAC.
Interesting player. Short (5-11) but measured 32 3/4 inch arms at the Senior Bowl and there’s every chance he’s above the 33-inch threshold Seattle seems to like at DL (they always seem to under-mark in Mobile).
I’m keeping a list of VMAC visits, workouts and meetings. Will put it up when it gets deep.
Interesting that they’d cut a dude out of the draft if he showed up with a quarter inch short arms. Like “you better dislocate those arms or the Hawks won’t pick you
I’m guessing they would potentially make exceptions for the right players. But being below the thresholds would be a significant mark against a player.
Teams are allowed to bring in up to 30 draft eligible players to the facility for a visit.
Hell yeah! That’s my guy.
Poona or someone like him will be a nice addition.
IDK Reed, Jones, Stephen, and Johnson, how many DTs we need? Course one or both of Stephen and Johnson could be hedges, and could eventually be cut if a DT we like falls into a range we like. But as usual JS is as clear as mud.
From what it sounds like, Johnson & Stephens are gonna be 3-techs in the mold of Alan Branch or Tony McD, whereas Naz will be the energizer off the bench.
My guess would be they want a backup at 1-tech?
I think there’s a lot of 1s in this draft with upside. Actually kind of a deep class. We’re gonna take one, but probably not till one of our 5th rounders. Young backup anchor with upside should be there in the 5th.
Interesting player. They need a nose behind Reed.
And now at Maryland’s pro day for WR DJ Moore.
With him and Kirk they’re looking for the next Golden Tate huh?
Sure seems like it. They also spent a ton of time with Dante Pettis and scouted Memphis a few times.
I wonder if the VMAC visits will tip off any changes in players for the new offensive regime? Like if they scouted certain WR before that would fit Bevell’s offense but will now be looking at ones who fit Schottenheimer. I’m sure there’s overlap and good players can fit any offense, but I’d be curious to know how their board has shuffled with the coaching changes.
Great question.
Yep, and we won’t know until we see what they do. What we do know (since the front office said so in February), is that the FO make it a point of emphasis this offseason learning the physical types that their new offensive coaches prefer.
Music to my ears. Pettis has the “it” factor – he finds a way to win and my guess is they won’t want to risk Tyler returning as much.
Ohio LB Quentin Poling killed his pro day with the Hawks in attendance.
6’0
235 lbs.
32′ arms
78″ wingspan
4.50-4.55 40
1.57-1.59 10
2.56-2.60
38″ vert
10’7″ broad
24 reps on the BP
6.88 3 cone
4.27 SS
2017 stats: 101 tackles, 12 TFL, 5 QB sacks, 5 PD, 1 FF
Sweet cant wait to see which LB’s we draft
I don’t think Seattle had drafted a LB since 2014, Kevin Pierre-Louis toward the bottom of the 4th round. That needs to change.
I don’t have this guy on my big board yet, is there a current consensus on his draft day value yet?
Day 3
Thanks Vol
No problem
I’d like to point out a website that has updated rankings in top-100 and value boards for both
offense & defense. I tend to agree with almost all of their rankings and the reason I’m giving
them a shout is they are #1 in the last 5 years, picking an average of 84.8% of the top 100
players that were actually selected in the draft. That’s darn good & another bookmark for me.
Their value boards I like a lot. The 1-st 3 rounds are broken into A,B,C, for early/middle/late
portions in each round by position & then just ranked sequentially for Rounds 4-7 by position.
Check them out at: http://draftboardguru.com/top100/ (also see value O & D tabs.)
Hey Rob, have you done any looking into Marquis Haynes from Ole Miss? He seems like he could be a Bruce Irvin type and won numerous awards and accolades for being a great leader/teammate.
Also any thoughts on Holton Hill from Texas? Kind of the “project” Pete has gone for in the past. Seems to have the measurables and talent, but got in trouble with the team last year. Might not be “all about football”, according to some.
We tracked Haynes for two years, was a player we were keeping an eye out for right up until the combine. But if you’re running a 4.67 at 235lbs with only a 1.67 split you’re probably not going to fit in the SAM/LEO for Seattle.
Hill I could see them taking a look at. Very talented. Has had some issues but has the frame etc. Might go a bit too early but if he drops a bit he’s an option.
Haynes ran a 4.5 something at his pro-day. That’s what got me looking at him.
Thanks.
First, I want to say I said Kirk is a great fit for the Seahawks back in February, that it would help the run game and play-action. Everyone I told said that was a crazy idea for Pete to take a WR so early with the run game so bad. I think this team will be trending towards building around Russel and the offense.
That said, I wouldn’t be apposed to a RW trade… Think about, this team leaned heavily on the run game at the beginning of Russel’s career. They have proven they can win a lot of games with that formula. I’m a believer of spending high picks on areas you know you aren’t great at coaching up. Developing O-line comes to mind as a major weakness of ours, QB could be (we only have RW as a sample size and no other QB has panned out).
If you could pull off a blockbuster deal, like a trade with Cleveland that offers a RG3 type of trade, it could be a repeat of our current era. Before you call me crazy, listen. If you can turn that trade into Saquon Barkeley, Quenton Nelson, Lamar Jackson, and another 1st round stud in 2019, you could argue this team would have a dominant running game with a generational running back and stellar o-line a lot like we did when this era started. It’s a HUGE gamble, but the savings from having to pay a top QB could also do wonders for this team. The counter argument is that you simply have Russel Wilson, a generational QB. My only response to that is, what happens when/if his speed goes? That could be on the horizon in next 1-4 years, no one knows. He could suffer a devastating leg injury. Russel can operate in the pocket, but he excels at scrambling and working with his feet. Do you think if Brady relied on his mobility he would have lasted as long as he has?
This trade has a 0.001% chance of happening, I know. But it’s a scenario I like the more I think about it. Just food for thought.
With respect, I really don’t want to spend that much time discussing scenarios about trading Russell Wilson. It’s so improbable (even you admit it’s less than a 0.1% chance).
Understandable Rob. Don’t expect you to consider every trade scenario that may or may not happen. Obviously the discussion of trading ET is a better topic, and more prevalent. The idea was inspired by the mention in this article and Schneider saying no player is untouchable.
Just throwing thoughts out there, curious about opinions of others on the subject.
No problem at all. Feel free to discuss. I just want to avoid an extension of Seahawks Twitter where ‘trade Russell Wilson’ became a thing for a while — and it created quite a lot of angst among fans.
If I can ask though,
This whole ‘you don’t trade franchise QBs wisdom is simply because no-ones ever done it.
Someone has to be the first to try it, and it’ll either work or spectacularly blow up in the face.
Schneider seems just like the ballsy kind of GM to go ‘you know what, I reckon I can make this work for us’
If it was right to do no doubt he would.
But here’s the thing. Franchise QB’s are rare. And if you have one, in his peak, you don’t trade him away to have the opportunity to see if someone else can be what you already have. Especially not to save money. Because in three years time you’ll be paying the quarterback the money you wanted to avoid paying in the first place.
+1
These are all my thoughts on the matter.
It’s happened before. It’s just never happened without having a clear replacement on the roster. SF traded Montana because they had Steve Young. GB let Favre walk because they had Aaron Rogers. I don’t think a franchise jumps off a cliff without a parachute, and that’s what the Hawks would be doing if they trade RW without his replacement under contract.
Does anyone remember the decade of searching for a QB after Dave Kreig moved on. The list looked like this:
Jeff Kemp
Dan McGwire
Kelly Stouffer
Stan Gelbaugh
Rick Mirer
John Friesz
Warren Moon
Jon Kitna
Glen Foley
Brock Huard
There were 3 high first round picks in there trying to fix the problem, rd 1 pick #2, rd 1 pick #6, rd 1 pick #16, with no success.
Finding a franchise QB is hard. Most of those touted as sure thing, potential franchise QBs in the draft don’t pan out. If you have one, you don’t trade him with the thought that we’ll just draft another one.
Totally agree. Franchise QB’s are very difficult to come across, and I’m all for spending a high pick on one (like a Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson) so that you can first be in a position to trade RW. You’ve hit it on the head, trading Russel should only be an option if you’ve got someone in the wings you think highly of.
I normally would not even consider it possible but QB salaries are going crazy, Russ has a contract coming due in a year or two, JS is clearly going to think real hard about 3 led contracts, JS is making he QB pro day rounds. So this time it can’t be dismissed as crazy talk but I still think the odds are less that’s 1%. Trade Russ and it is not a rebuild it is a complete scaping of the old vehicle and I just don’t see it as even remotely possible.
No matter what, if you trade your franchise QB for a younger guy and picks, in 3 years you’ll be paying him even more and you’ll have to start all over again. He shouldn’t be moved.
Agreed. There’s a lot to risk by making such a move. I like the idea of it only because of that Brady-Wilson comparison. It’s that X factor to every players game. For Brady it’s his arm, decision making, and overall mastery of the offense from the pocket. Russ can do those things, but, obviously there’s a difference that you can’t really debate between the two. What makes Russ GREAT is his elusiveness and mobility.
When Russ banged up his ankle for half the season, we saw just how much his mobility is relied on. Passing from the pocket is more difficult at his height, no getting around it. Doesn’t mean he can’t, but if that season was a sample of an immobile Russ then you’ll have major problems IF he loses his speed. If he were taller and have more of the qualities that make Brady and Rodgers great, I might have a different opinion.
The longevity of the player is what I’m concerned about. NFL = Not For Long
Yes, with Drew Brees at 39 and Tom Brady at only 41, I can understand your concern. Eli Manning is 37 and it’s clear his days are numbered. The same for Ben Rothlisberger (also 37). And who knows how many more years Phillip Rivers at 36 can go. Heck, Brett Favre only made it to 40 before he was washed up, and Peyton Manning was only 39. I too think RW may be close to the end, so now would be the perfect time to dump him. I’m going to snicker at the team that picks him up with so little time left on his clock – the joke is on them.
Mark, I wasn’t saying the end is near for RW necessarily. The difference between all those QBs is their ability from the pocket. Remember the 2016 season Suh stepped on RW ankle? He struggled a lot afterwards to work from within the pocket. Granted, his o-line didn’t help at that point either. I’m simply saying we (and Russell) rely on his mobility too much. That most of his “magic” comes by being on the move.
Michael Vick had a good run that lasted roughly 10 years of quality play, and he started losing his speed even earlier. Part of my question is, what happens when Russel loses his speed? I think the comparison to Vick is a good one – similar X factor, height and weight etc etc.
I like to hear anyone’s thoughts on whether they think there is a steep drop off or not if Russel is less mobile/not as fast.
+1
TrADE RusSSEl WIlsON
Try CBD instead of THC, please.
Whole-heartedly disagree with you, amigo.
Trollin trollin trollin keep them doggies trollin . . .
Rob,
What are your thoughts on Nwosu from USC??
Was clearly a leader on USC’s defense. Like the way he plays with intensity. Has good burst off the edge, good motor. Like the fact he has long arms despite a lack of height. I’m just not sure on the fit in Seattle. It’s difficult to place him in the scheme. As a character he fits. But his body type, testing and play makes me wonder where exactly he’d feature for Seattle.
“The second round is where a lot of the value is going to be in this draft class. Picking twice or even three times in that round would be a huge boost for a re-tooling team.”
I think this can be said about the draft period. Some years you have more “first round value” players, but 2nd-3rd rounds are value rounds every year.
Probably why JS likes to trade down so much. Whiffing on a 2nd rounder is a lot easier to swallow than a 1st rounder.
While the early second is almost always a great place to be, the true pockets and shelves of any given draft are very distinct and unique year to year often hinging on one single selection down the line.
If Lamar Jackson goes to Seattle at 18 it changes a ton for instance.
Top of the second, bottom of the third look very strong to me. Then the late fifth and early seventh wouls be my choices
“Groom Stage” QBs are basically late 1st round picks in the draft capital world.
Does anyone know where any Seahawks personnel/ scouts were on the 21st? It was Georgia’s and USC’s pro days that day. I’m wondering which one John went to really, I’m sure they had multiple people at both.
John was at USC.
John was at the USC one I believe. I’m sure Pete with his connections there probably has some good intel on their prospects.
Interesting
Hypothetically, what would Russell Wilson fetch?
If Cleveland offered pick1, pick4 and Myles Garrett, are we starting to get close?
Let’s not get into this discussion Nathan.
1, 4, 33, 35, 2019 1st, 2019 2nd, 2020 2nd, 2020 3rd.
It’ll never happen. Lol
They’ll need to throw in a long snapper.
…and David Putney…
and a kicker!
https://twitter.com/alexmarvez/status/979143295275323393
Hurst visiting soon.
I like mo hurst! If he fell to us after a trade back that would be great value.
Not sure how much we need a 3T tho, but won’t ever complained about having another talented player on the team.
Here’s an alternative perspective on Seattle drafting OL early, Wynn for example.
1. It absolutely is in line with the “focus” on the running game.
2. It’s not about “benching” anyone because no one has a starting job on that line. Compete, compete, compete & win it!
3. In 2017 Fant missed games(all), Joeckel missed games, Brown missed games, Aboushi missed games. Seemingly every year we have significant missed playing time on the OL. Quality depth can save a season and lack of it can end one.
4. This is more than a one year re-tooling. OL takes longer to gel than a RB who can pay more immediate dividends. Maybe we are worse in 2018 for it but better from 2019 on.
We all have our favorites. My only real hope is that the 1st player we do draft, be it a RB, DL, OL, WR? turns out to be a great addition toward our next title. That goes for the rest of the draft too. We need to nail this one.
Duane Brown and Justin Britt do have starting jobs on the line. There are possibly three open spots but they already have Ifedi, Pocic and Odhiambo (R1, R2, R3) competing there plus D.J. Fluker (just signed), Jordan Roos (who they clearly liked enough to redshirt) and George Fant (who they liked enough to start at LT a year ago). That’s already six players competing for three jobs.
I’ll keep saying this. I’m a huge fan of Isaiah Wynn’s. We were talking about him on here before a lot of the national types pumped his name up. But eventually other areas of the team need care and attention. They’ve already appointed Solari and signed Fluker, traded for Duane Brown, drafted Pocic and Ifedi/Odhiambo in the last two years alone. Spending yet another high pick just to bench Pocic or cut Fluker and not address another position that is thin is simply not a good use of resources.
+1. Have been repeatedly saying this in some national discussions when all that gets thrown out there is…..’Seattle has to get a whole new OLine’.
Does Fant have the build to move inside to LG or is RT his only shot at starting? I’m a Fant fan because I like his athleticism, attitude, and he seems to be a quick study. It would be great to to have him lining up next to Brown as his eventual replacement.
I think he’s a tackle but they might take a look at him at guard.
Speaking of quarterbacks, any draft projection on Penn State’s Trace McSorley in 2019? I have no idea how he will translate to the pros & the dude is not big by any QB standards. That said, he sure made a lot of back breaker plays in the Fiesta Bowl. Showed pretty impressive touch, poise & mobility. I was impressed. A gamer.
is this SDB or did I make a mistake and go onto Davis Hsu twitter account?
here is the reason you don’t trade Russell Wilson, for those who fear he is about to get a big new contract.
80% of all starting QB’s will eventually get paid at or near the top of the pay scale, even if they are not an elite QB. That is how Cousins gets the top contract even though you have to struggle to say he is one of the top 10 qb’s. So you trade Russ for a pile of assets, but you can’t win because your new qb cannot finish/win games. And by the time he can, you have to pay him at the top of the scale and now you have lost the advantage of having the low paid qb. Having Russell play as well as he did in his first 3 years is rare, don’t expect to repeat that. Easier to do what Pete can do and that is rebuild the D.
You will eventually pay your QB top $$, so why not have one that is worth it
People are talking about it for the same reason as trading Earl. “Think of the picks” lol. The ole Cleveland model, we see how that worked out for them last year/years and they had “three first round picks OH EM GEE” and pick first every other year.
You don’t move on from hall of fame talents in their prime because by trading them for draft picks you are likely just making your team worse and less talented. Russ isn’t going anywhere.
If we’re taliing WR I like Pettis, Sutton, Chark and Wims.
Michael Gallup man…. dude is the real deal.
Lamar Jackson is an exciting player, as is Sam Darnold. I think this is JS covering bases. Both he and PC mentioned RW as one of the core players to build around moving forward. I don’t imagine Cleveland is going to offer all it’s picks for RW anymore than JS is going to look to shop him.
I think Rob hits it on the nose that if Seattle were to find itself with a handful of day two picks and one of these QBs slide, they want to be prepared.
On a much more exciting note, Maurice Hurst is going to have a VMAC visit. That is a player I could see Seattle spend 18 on.
Just for fun, one way I could see the draft going.
1. Cle. Sam Darnold QB
2. NYG. Josh Rosen QB
3. NYJ. Josh Allen QB
4. Cle. Saquon Barkley
5. Den. Quenton Nelson OG
6. Ind. Bradley Chubb DE
7. Buf. (Trade w/TB). Baker Mayfield QB
8. Chi. Tremaine Edmunds LB
9. SF. Minkah Fitzpatrick
10. Ari. (Trade w/ Oak). Lamar Jackson QB
11. Mia. Denzel Ward CB
12. TB. Derwin James SS
13. Was. Vita Vea DT
14. GB. Jaire Alexander CB
15. Oak. Marcus Davenport
16. Bal. Mike McGlinchey OT
17. LAC. Leighton Vander Esch LB
18. Car. (Trade w/ Sea) Isaiah Wynn OG
19. Dal. Rashaan Evans LB
20. Det. Derrius Guice RB
21. Cin. Connor Williams OL
22. TB. Josh Jackson CB
23. LAR. Harold Landry DE
24. Ind. (Trade w/ Sea) Sam Hubbard DE
25. Ten. Roquan Smith LB
26. Atl. DaRon Payne DT
27. NO. Will Hernandez OG
28. Pit. Taven Bryan DT
29. Jax. Calvin Ridley WR
30. Min. James Daniels C/OG
31. NE. Kolton Miller OT
32. Phi. Christian Kirk WR
Top 4 stays set, everyone wins. Buffalo is forced to get ahead of Miami for Mayfield, which leads to Miami passing for talent and Arizona grabbing the last guy anybody really liked. Carolina trades up to replace Norwell. Then Indy trades up after Landry goes to make sure they get another top tier DE to go with Chubb, then probably plan to grab a RB at 37.
Seattle then holds picks 36, 49, 55, 120, 140, 141, 146, 156, 161, 168,
Trade #1 w/Carolina- 18 for 24, 55, 161.
Trade #2 w/Indy- 24 for 36, 49, 140.
And all I’ll say as for who the Hawks will take is with 36 it would be one of Rojo, Chubb, Michel or Kerryon.
No offense but no way we get Carolinas 2nd rounder going back 6 spots, we could get there third though. Also the same with Indy. They wouldnt give us 36 and 49 for 24. I love the mock though.
Yeah I kind of just threw something together to fit the mock lol didn’t check how realistic it was
I’d be thrilled with Jones or Chubb at 36. Not so much with Michell or Johnson.
It’s not just what Russell Wilson does running, throwing and doing his thing, it’s the fact he never quits always believes and puts team first every day, except contract signing day lol. He sets a tone, even if his choir boy persona makes it hard to buy into, he is a viciously competitive person and that rubs off on everyone sharing the field with him. Sure every player has a price, but a future HOF QB in his prime would cost like 4 first round picks and extra picks thrown in. No team could afford to give true Value of a RW lol.
I want Chris Carson, CJ Prosise to be supplemented with Ito Smith and Nick Chubb. It would be one hell of a competition. We would be able to probably grad Ito Smith in the 5th or 6th round. Don’t get me wrong on Mike Davis, I think he is a useful person to have but I wouldn’t bet my running game on him being your second or third best, let alone first.
Ronald Jones would be great to add but if we can’t get him I would be happy taking Nick Chubb and a flyer on Ito Smith.
The Idea of trading Russell Wilson is ludicrous and useless!
We most likely couldn’t find a replacement nearly as good
We would be creating more holes on a team with plenty
It would signal the firing of both JS & PC
+1 on a late round flyer on Ito Smith. Pairing him with Chubb would be awesome.
I’m telling y’all Michael Gallup is one of the best receivers in this draft. Dude is a technician and tough, not the fastest but seems to, like Kirk, play with pace. That’s how Antonio and Doug Baldwin win, Michael Crabtree too. Gallup can turn into a chain mover and red zone threat and he’s not that slow. 4.51 40. Antonio is 4.58 I believe.
The crazy thing with Gallup is he’s always been raw, but just last year started working on the little things, and he already has picked it up really well and flashes big time. The scouting community said he did bad at Bama but I say he had a heck of a matchup with a top Corner and caught a touchdown while his team got blown out.
He’s smart too, a big part of his game, you can tell he watches film and understands how to beat his guy. Really reminds me of Michael Thomas and Michael Crabtree. Even a bit of Jarvis Landry.
He needs to be consistent, but man could he do some damage for us.
Ha! I just posted him below as one of my later round guys I hope we target.
Nice right-up, and I agree. I do wonder where we could get him.
A few names of guys that might be available on day 3:
Dorance Armstrong – KU, EDGE
Ade Aruna – Tulane – DE
Genard Avery – Memphis, LB
Fred Warner – BYU, LB
Jason Cabinda – PSU – LB
Parry Nickerson – Tulane – CB
PJ Hall – Sam Houston – DT
Michael Gallup – CSU – WR
Josh Adams – ND – RB
Ito Smith – SMU – RB
Will Richardson – NCSt – T
Dmitri Flowers – OU – FB
I have not done nearly as much digging into this class as some others, so would be curious if anyone has any Hawk takes on these guys. They seem like late round guys I could get excited about though.
Folks don’t get me wrong. But I am starting to think that A tight end might be a higher priority over an offensive lineman. The way I look at it. You could make a case that the Hawks gave added three offensive lineman. First their is D.J.Fluker. Next if he can play and stay healthy their is George Fant. Fant was developing into a nice addition to the OL. Fant, however never played a snap during the 2017 regular season. Finally Ethan Pocic has added 20 pounds of solid rock muscle to his frame. That is going to benefit the run game. Pocic was listed on Wikipedia at 302. Well according to John Schneider Pocic is now up to 322 pounds.
One other footnote. John Schneider said that he is liking the that Jordan Roos is developing.
Tight is very much still a key need. They need another one.
I remember when they were glowing over the development of Christine Michael, and how he was going to take a much larger role in the offense. Sometimes they say things to try to boost the confidence of the players. I can’t hold much stock in them telling us they are excited about the development with someone.
Hey Rob, what are your thoughts on Cody O’Connel? PFF ranked him 4th out of all draft eligible guards.
Not someone I’ve studied much to be honest. Like Cole Madison though who he played with.
I like the addition of Ed Dickson. Dickson sounds like a guy you want on your side if you ever had to go to war. Dickson is a hard nose tough guy. With that said. It wouldn’t hurt to add a tight end. Having two tight end does wonders for the running. But if you take a peek at New Englands offense there is a reason Bill Belichick loves two fight end formations. It can create miss matches in the passing game. Tom Brady has feasted off ofor throwing to tight ends slot guys,
I wish we could edit our postings.
Tom Brady has feasted off of two tight ends, slot guys and backs coming out of the back field.
New 3000 NFL mock draft pod on field gulls
Rob, I think there’s a typo. I thought I read that they’ll have 100 million in cap space next year…..For the life of me I can’t imagine. I must have read that wrong
It’s true
In regards to JS going to some top QB pro days, I seem to recall and interview a few years back where he talked about someone they had just signed in FA. If I remember correctly, the player they signed was a high pick and had somewhat flamed out in 2 or 3 years with the team that drafted him. JS said they had interviewed him and done a lot of research on him during the draft, knowing he was going to go much higher than they were picking. But JS said they did that groundwork for exactly the instance that arose where a few years down the road they had a shot to get him and were already comfortable with their character and knew what type of player they were.
So it likely has nothing to do with this draft or trading Russ, but more for if they ever have a chance to cross paths years down the road.
Rob, Maurice Hurst is sub 33″ arms. Do you think they could draft him, or they just want to know everything about potential trade target for teams like Falcons who want to move up?
Last 4 years seahawks 1st pick was VMAC visitor. For now, Justin Reid and Maurice Hurst are potential 1st picks for us.
Not sure. There’s always an exception to the rule.
They don’t have much information on him because he didn’t workout at the combine. So maybe they want him to do some testing plus their own medical checks perhaps.
“Let’s not go nuts paying a QB….”
Sorry, that ship sailed. When Kirk “You like that” Cousins can get 28M / year…..
RW, AR, JF, MS, MR and others will be getting at least 30M / year
Maybe it is time to find a cost effective QB, then trade RW for 2 1st rounders.
Not saying they should, but the salary cap being tied up in a single player seems to work against building the whole team…. and being SB caliber. The Patriots have been sneaky about how they pay their QB, thus able to maintain some decent supporting cast around him.
Just food for thought.
Let’s look at some data folks:
Since 2004,
2004 Patriots
2005 Patriots
2006 Steelers
2007 Colts
2008 Giants
2009 Steelers
2010 Saints
2011 Packers
2012 Giants
2013 Ravens
2014 Seahawks
2015 Patriots
2016 Broncos
2017 Patriots
2018 Eagles
Out of 15, 4 were led by rookie contract QBs (if you count eagles with Nick Foles)
1/3 doesn’t mean a whole lot to justify getting rid of a franchise QB.
Look at the AFC, since 2004 where Manning, Rothlisberger and Brady have taken it every time except when Flacco did. The NFC is more of the Wild West.
+1
Not to mention if you think you can draft a good replacement for Russel Wilson, the hardest position to draft for, then why couldn’t you also find great players to replace the ones we lost as cap casualties through the draft? This trade Wilson sentiment makes absolutely zero sense to me. People who want Wilson traded need to take a long hard look at the Browns and see how not having a QB is going for them.
The AFC is so top heavy. The NFC is very spread out as far as who can make it to the Super Bowl. You look at who the Patriots competition is. Maybe the Steelers but not really and maybe Jacksonville.
Is anyone else outraged at the proposed changes to “the catch rule” or the “no head down tackling rule”? I think it is complete garbage and the more you legislate the game… the worse it will become. What made the NFL great? Big time hits and highlight reel catches…. not some watered down product due to injury concerns or nuanced language in the rule book.
The new catch rule is to stop great catches being ruled incomplete (The dez catch for example.
And the helmet rule is neccessary to preserving the sport, it cant continue as it was. Its also very possible to make big hits without leading with your helmet. Rugby has been doing it for a while.
The new helmet rule is likely going to need some revision. He gives the officials too much latitude in making subjective calls and can Inappropriately influence the outcome of a game.
I’ve just listened JS on Clayton. I think he mentioned McCloughan as a scout. Did you hear the same?
And Rob , one more question. 🙂 Do you think there is possibility of trading back before draft day?
Before? No. During? I think that’s certain.
It probably wont happen until the pick is already in for #17. Thats usually how it works.
People make a big deal about paying Russell around 30m APY on his next contract (and as such want to trade him), but even if we paid him that amount of money, his percentage of the cap will stay roughly the same. Unless Rodgers or Matt Ryan obliterate the “QB cannot account for more than 17% of the cap” barrier, Russell’s contract will appear huge, but will still be manageable.
On to the math. Russell’s 2015 extension (4 year, 87.5m) came out to $21.875m APY, which was below the Rodgers’ cap on APY of 22m, but ahead of Cam. Luck broke the APY cap, but not the % one. The salary cap in 2015 was $143.28m, meaning that Wilson essentially took up 15.2% of the cap.
If we assume he’ll get 15.2% of the cap for next year, which has been estimated at $188-190m, that puts his APY at around $28-29m, which is around what Kirk Cousins and Jimmy G got this year – already a bargain.
However, we must account for Rodgers and Ryan, as I don’t think Wilson will settle for less than Ryan. If Ryan signs first, and Rodgers gets more, I think Rodgers’ contract will be the new cap, and Wilson will be right under. If Rodgers signs first, and Ryan gets more, Wilson’s contract might be the top in the league. I estimate Rodgers potential APY (if he signs this year) at $30-31m judging by the percentage of the cap he got last time, so we might end up having to pay Russell that much next year. That would only be an increase of .8% of the cap over Russell’s last contract, which isn’t much.
I think the problem is now that every contract is trumping the next one. We know Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the league. Once he gets his deal every QB after that should be under his. My opinion anyways.
That’s how it worked before on Russell’s past deal.