For all the discussion about D.K. Metcalf’s future in Seattle, I think it’s fairly obvious what’s going to happen. They’re going to extend his contract.

The only thing likely to prevent this happening is a difficult negotiation. I’m not sure that’ll be the case though. His last contract was agreed without any drama.

So why is it so obvious he’ll stay in Seattle?

It will cost the Seahawks $21m in dead money to trade him. That’s a huge amount of money. In order to justify such an expense, you’d have to be getting a lot back in a trade. Metcalf’s stock is possibly as low as it’s ever been. It’s highly unlikely an offer will be forthcoming that makes the team comfortable paying $21m to watch him play somewhere else. The cap saving for 2025 will only be $10.9m.

Talk of a $30m a year deal is a red-herring. Brandon Aiyuk’s contract in San Francisco is worth that amount on average and should act as a parameter for negotiations. On closer inspection though, Aiuyk’s $30m a year deal is nothing like it. It’s window dressing.

Here are Aiyuk’s cap-hits for the next three seasons:

2025 — $10.7m
2026 — $16.2m
2027 — $42m

By 2027 the 49ers have an easy out in the deal that will save them $19.4m. They’ll take on a $22m dead cap hit, as much as Metcalf’s dead cap-hit today.

If the Seahawks and Metcalf were to do a deal using the framework of Aiyuk’s contract, they could very reasonably just kick the can down the road on his deal for two more years.

They would give Metcalf a deal worth $120m with $45m guaranteed and $30m a year. It sounds enormous. In reality, you’d be paying him about $10-15m next season, $16-18m the following season and then you can get out of the contract. It’s nothing like a $30m a year commitment.

His current cap-hit, worth $31.9m, could realistically be cut by at least half. That would create around $16-20m in cap space immediately. That is far more appealing than saving $10.9m, while paying him $21m to play somewhere else, while also likely not getting great value in a trade, and having to replace Metcalf somehow in free agency or the draft.

The Seahawks have $146m in available cap space for 2026. They can easily take on a $16m cap-hit if his new contract matches Aiyuk’s. Then by 2027, when the cap-hit rises massively, you can make a decision. You can trade or cut him, costing the same dead-cap as you’d spend now, only with far more cap space to play with (making it easier to absorb). Or you can re-work his deal to lower the cap-hit. It would easily be manageable.

From a financial perspective, it makes perfect sense to go in this direction.

I think people are unaware or mistaken on what trading Metcalf means for 2025. You are not saving any real money or creating cap space. You are not clearing $30m immediately. The saving would come in future seasons, where the Seahawks already have a ton of cap-space.

Basically, unless someone makes a fantastic trade offer that you can’t turn down (they probably won’t) the best move is to extend him, lower his cap-hit, keep the player and reassess in a couple of years when he becomes expensive again. He only just turned 27, so you have time to consider things.

This is a far more straight forward situation than the one with Geno Smith. The quarterback market is different. Aiyuk’s deal can easily be used as a precedent for Metcalf, where things make sense for the player and team. With Smith, he’d presumably point to massive contracts for Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence. The Seahawks will balk at those deals for a number of reasons — in particular the total lack of value plus Smith’s age.

Therefore, it’ll come down to Smith’s willingness to compromise. As we discussed on Saturday — given what the media is saying, I’m guessing his camp are not currently minded to compromise.

The Seahawks, in my opinion, will not retain Smith on his current $44.5m cap-hit. They will want to bring that number down and retain an annual-out. Yet according to Albert Breer’s report prior to the Bears game, Smith is seeking a commitment in terms of salary and contract-length:

“The exploding QB market does complicate his future”

Breer’s report spells it out. The Seahawks are clearly open-minded about keeping Smith. He seems to want a bigger commitment. Unless the two sides can come together over the next six weeks, a parting could become a reality.

It’s still early days though. It’s a time for brinkmanship. Deadlines spur actions. By the time we get closer to March, Smith’s representatives might be more inclined to work with the Seahawks. Unless, of course, they feel their client has a market elsewhere. That will almost certainly be the case if Pete Carroll takes the Las Vegas Raiders job. But it’s worth remembering how lukewarm his market was in 2023 and he’s now two years older.

So while I think it’s very clear Metcalf will be back with the Seahawks, I think it’s very much in the balance with Smith.