Would the Seahawks be interested in a big trade up for a quarterback?

I’ve got a new mock draft coming later today but first I wanted to do a bit of thinking out loud.

Seven years ago the Chiefs traded up for Patrick Mahomes. It was a franchise defining move. The moment after the pick was made, the NFL Network reported that John Schneider would’ve been prepared to take Mahomes in round one if he’d lasted to Seattle, despite having Russell Wilson on the roster.

The Chiefs are now a dynasty. Schneider loved Mahomes enough to, presumably, make it known publicly that he felt that way even with Wilson under contract. That’s how much conviction he had over Mahomes.

I don’t know if he shares the same conviction about Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye. He probably doesn’t, truth be told. But for the sake of a discussion — if he has a strong belief in either of them, will he be minded to remember that day in 2017 and back himself?

It might be why he’s being non-committal on Geno Smith. We’re two years removed from the Wilson trade and this is draft #3 since parting with the franchise QB. Is Schneider ready to make his move?

It would be massively expensive. It cost the 49ers two extra firsts and a third to move from #12 to #3 in 2021 for Trey Lance. I’d imagine it would be even more expensive, three years on, to go from #16 to #3. I also think desperate teams in the top-15 would in all likelihood match any offer you make, thus making it virtually impossible to strike a deal.

That said, the Texans moved from #12 to #3 a year ago and it cost them the #33 pick and a future first only. So you can never be quite sure on the price or the competition.

Let’s just consider for a moment a world where the Seahawks could outbid the teams in front of them. Why would they, and why could it work?

Firstly, there’s at least some minor buzz about the Patriots moving out of the #3 pick and acquiring Justin Fields to be their quarterback. Let’s suppose they aren’t sold on Daniels or Maye and want, for example, to take a tackle instead.

A good tackle will be available at #16. We’ve also seen teams, in recent history, trade down and then move back up. The Cardinals did it just last year when they had the #3 pick, moved down to #12, then back up to #6. In 2021 the Eagles dropped from #6 to #12, then moved back up to #10. So if the Pats are targeting the tackles in the draft, they won’t miss out by trading to #16.

The Seahawks could put a package of picks together and possibly include a player — maybe even Geno Smith, if the Pats want an experienced starter but aren’t interested in Fields. It would position New England to be more competent offensively at the start of their new era, with picks to spend in the future. They’d have to be completely unconvinced by Maye or Daniels themselves. That wouldn’t necessarily mean much for the two players though. Teams slept on Mahomes seven years ago — just as they slept on another of Schneider’s favourites, Josh Allen (the third QB taken in 2018).

Eliot Wolf is the personnel decision maker in New England these days, the son of Ron Wolf. Given Schneider’s strong relationship with Wolf senior (they met for dinner in the last few days according to Schneider), you’d imagine there’d be a connection there to work on a structure that might work for both parties.

It’s also worth noting that Wolf senior was very much a ‘trenches’ GM back in the day. If Wolf junior isn’t totally sold on a quarterback, it wouldn’t be preposterous to think he might move out of #3 for a haul of picks and a veteran quarterback to buy time, before looking at the great tackle class.

Why might the Seahawks be sufficiently interested in Daniels or Maye to move up to #3, guaranteeing one of them? Both are highly creative, mobile, dynamic quarterbacks with the ability to throw downfield. That’s what Schneider has tended to like. Daniels’ frame is a little bit leaner than the prototype — but he does resemble a player in Lamar Jackson who new Head Coach Mike Macdonald knows all about. The Seahawks just appointed Zac Hill as an offensive assistant. He was Daniels’ offensive coordinator in Arizona State for two years. I’m not convinced they are trying to re-create Baltimore’s offense — but Daniels would give them an opportunity to do so. Plus, scrambling quarterbacks have been Kryptonite for the 49ers in the past.

Daniels was a top-five player for ‘big time throws’ in college football last season, he ranked third in ‘big time throw percentage’, he only had a ridiculous seven turnover worthy plays all year with the fourth best turnover worthy play percentage. His first down conversion percentage on 3rd and 7 or longer was second only to J.J. McCarthy among the big name QB’s in this class. He led the top QB’s in the draft for on-target passes on third and long beyond the sticks.

These are all reasons, I’d argue, why Daniels is a lock to go to Washington with the second pick. But it stands to reason that the Seahawks would be intrigued by this level of success — not to mention his experience as a QB and rapid development.

Then there’s Maye. He looks exactly like you’d expect a John Schneider QB to look. He’s big, athletic, strong and has an arm to make throws to all areas of the field. He’s creative, he improvises. He’s basically the physical prototype for the modern NFL. However, there are inconsistencies in his game and some teams will be put off by his fluctuating performances and risk taking. I doubt Schneider will view it that way — because those were exactly the same criticisms aimed at Mahomes and Josh Allen (another quarterback he reportedly really liked).

It does feel like we’ve been here before — with Mahomes and Allen, the two players Schneider really liked. As we keep noting, Mahomes wasn’t in Daniel Jeremiah’s top-50 list at the start of April 2017. He was a late first round pick in his final mock. Allen wasn’t for everyone, after an erratic career at Wyoming. It’s amazing to think now that Mitchell Trubisky, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold were taken before Mahomes and Allen in the 2017 and 2018 drafts.

On both occasions, Schneider focused on what each player could become — not the flaws. Could he do that with Maye? Could he see the dynamic playmaking, the big arm, the frame, the ability to create that others, including myself, maybe aren’t focusing on? Maye had the second most big time throws in 2023 and by far the most in 2022 (10 more than the second ranked player). He had a big-time throw percentage in the top-six and like Daniels, limiting the number of turnover worthy plays (10). You could put some of the statistical regression down to losing key players on offense at North Carolina, if you wanted to be generous.

Further to that, Maye has the kind of personality I can imagine will really appeal to Schneider. He’s affable, humble and there’s no sense of ego. He would fit Seattle’s renewed focus on character.

Can I imagine Schneider liking Maye? Yes, easily. Can I imagine him deciding to be aggressive to go and get a quarterback he really likes? Again, yes.

I don’t think they could pull it off even if they wanted to. But I just wanted to throw it out there. It’s the off-season, so why not talk about these things?

And I’ll come back to the start of the article. Schneider saw his old pal Andy Reid make an aggressive move for the quarterback he loved and they’ve gone on to create a modern NFL dynasty. Schneider is from Green Bay — the team with big-armed gun-slingers Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. As he kept saying yesterday, they’ve drafted two quarterbacks in 14 years. It’s on his mind. Is he really just going to keep going along, waiting and waiting for the improbable to happen where a quarterback he loves falls into his lap? Or eventually, is he going to make his move? Complete a bold trade? Be aggressive?

As much as I have my own reservations about Drake Maye, I can also acknowledge he screams John Schneider. I think he’ll love the little off-script moments where he throws left handed, improbably shovels a ball to the running back as he’s being sacked by a gang of defenders, takes off on a run like a big galloping giraffe and turns it into a huge explosive play.

You can spend years trying to build the perfect team to create the perfect opportunity to draft a quarterback, or trade up for one. It’s really hard to do. Sometimes, you’ve got to get the quarterback, let them elevate those around you and just support them with an O-line and weapons in whatever way you can.

Do I think the Patriots are going to be prepared to trade all the way down to #16? No. Not without some obscene compensation that could in itself hammer the Seahawks’ chances of supporting a young QB.

Are the Seahawks going to be willing to basically give up their next two drafts for one player this year? I think it’s unlikely.

Do I think it’s still worth talking about whether John Schneider might do it? Yes, absolutely. Especially at a time when he and the Head Coach are being quite cagey about the player many assume is the unchallenged quarterback starter.

If you missed our ultimate combine preview, check it out here.

160 Comments

  1. Murphy

    Love the content, as always! Regardless of who the player was, if JS had the conviction about a player to aggressively move up, I’d be very excited and emphatically hit the “I Believe” button. I say this as someone who has argued against the Maye hype.

    • Rob Staton

      Completely agree

  2. Jeff Cole

    I feel like all of the Drew Lock mentions are part of the recruitment effort to get him signed and a nudge to Geno Smith to get better. It is interesting though that the message to the league is the Hawks may take a QB at #16, if only putting out the smoke signals as a way to help facilitate a trade back. I think the Hawks do prefer to trade Geno, but they’ve gotta be prepared for the possibility they can’t and with that the very real possibility that Lock and Geno are competing once again for QB1. Regardless, this is the most interesting Seahawks offseason in a very long time. The needed changes are coming, even if regression comes with them it’s nice to get past how stale things had become and back to a point of excitement what the team can become.

  3. Richard106

    Hi Rob. Really enjoy the website, and my first time posting! I was wondering as I was reading this, when, if a team was going to make this kind of move, the ideal time to do so would be? i.e. when is the sacrifice of giving up a lot of high future picks worth it?

    I was thinking the best time might be if you already have a lot of young talent on the roster, from a couple of years of good drafts, plus you are under the cap so have money and cap space to play with for a couple of years in free agency. A bad time might be if your squad is ageing and you are in cap space purgatory, then you would really need to be hanging onto future draft picks to help make your team younger and cheaper.

    Not sure if this is a good theory or not, or whether having a star QB simply trumps everything else regardless, but following it through Seahawks would seem to have the youngish fairly talented roster set ok, but the cap space situation doesnt look ideal. If they went this route, do you think they would be able to maintain a decent roster for the next few years without the high picks?

    • Rob Staton

      Honestly, I think the best time is simply when you identify a QB worth moving up for

      • geoff u

        💯Even if you already have a franchise QB. Well, maybe you wouldn’t move up, but if they landed in your lap like Mahomes could’ve when we had Wilson, you grab them anyway.

      • Matt

        Agreed. Timing, in general, is usually a hindsight deal. Very rarely, in any part of life is there perfect timing. Usually you took a calculated chance at a time you felt comfortable doing so.

        I could easily see Schneider going all in on Maye. He’s exactly the type of prospect you do that for. If he had no flaws; we’d have no chance at him. The fact is his flaws make him more enticing because it means there might be a chance a team would trade out of the pick to get him.

  4. cha

    Intriguing thought-line Rob.

    Another benefit: If JS can be satisfied with Daniels or Maye, they can make that trade right now. Just blow the uncertainty and the ‘they’re tipping their hand to their intentions’ right out of the water.

    It sets up Free Agency well too. Bring in Drew Lock with an incentive-laden contract, make your cut moves to open up cap room (Adams, Diggs, Mone, Bellore) and build the other parts of your team with some select signings.

    The Pats would get a few weeks to get a look at Geno Smith, which with a new coach could be really beneficial. And the salary risk is very low.

    They’ve got $78m of cap room, so no problem there.

    If they wanted they could bring along some Geno friends to ease the transition. Marquise Goodwin on a short term contract, Colby Parkinson and Noah Fant could be longer term to build with.

    There’s a lot of benefits there.

    • BK26

      I’ve had that thought too. Don’t remember exactly when, but the Panthers traded up last year, nice and early.

      It would definitely relax me more if they traded up to #3 (unless the draft Minimal McCarthy, then here come the aneurysms!)

      Cross off as many items as possible as early as possible.

      • cha

        Yeah. This team has regularly gotten deep into the offseason without major components of need addressed off and on for years now.

        They have to be ahead of the curve in some things if they’re to take the next step.

        Fans see it as impatient fans pushing to grab the shiniest toys as soon as the store opens. But it’s more like making sure you get one of the best cuts of meat from the grocery. Because if you don’t, it’s chopped liver for dinner for the whole season.

    • TatupuTime

      To make a trade like this you have to LOVE the player you are going to get. It’s a huge gamble. I can see them falling in love with one of those two guys – but the likelihood of falling that hard for both guys seems unlikely to me. It always felt like a huge mistake when the Niners traded for the 3rd overall pick reportedly before they identified the target. So agree with the thought process, but it just seems highly unlikely to me that they’d be comfortable with any of the three QBs at this time.

    • Ty the

      I like it cha…..

      All depends on the conviction. The team is in a rare position to either go for it on a QB to utilize cap space on rest of team for next 5 years. Or trade down and build up and target your guy next year.

  5. jr66

    I believe this a good year to build in the trenches and Defense. Then next year sell the farm to move up and get Ewers.

    • Peter

      However….

      In this scenario Rob posits or your scenario you never know when you can move up.

      Ewers could be qb 1,2 next year and whatever team wants him isn’t budging.

      There’s some really interesting names next year but let’s look at Ewers for example. Say John who has already mentioned him really wants Ewers but he gets his THIRD shoulder injury. Is that really a player you want? My main point is you really can’t know a year in advance. Or…there’s a wild chance that Ewers returns or transfers for yet another year.

    • TatupuTime

      It’s impossible to predict next year. Ewers could easily be out of reach.

      Having a good young team without a QB is NFL purgatory.

  6. Rob Staton

    Andy Reid on his success as a coach: “Get a good quarterback.”

    https://x.com/bynatetaylor/status/1762525304503894411?s=46&t=uv5_Cfk4hepYHPYUO6WNbQ

  7. JoeG

    We already have a “good” QB. The trick is finding an above average, or great QB. I think it’s entirely possible that they move up and draft a QB, or draft one at 16, get our QB for the future and have them sit a year or 2 behind Geno. Would definitely be exciting!

    • Mike

      Nothing exciting for me about a year or two more of Geno….

    • James Z

      It seems to me that when Reid said get a ‘good’ QB the connotation, not the literal (good vs. very good or great) meaning for him WAS great.

    • TatupuTime

      There are two paths for me. Have an elite QB that elevates a team (of which I think there are only like 4 in NFL) or have a cheap good QB. If Geno was on a rookie contract you could put a great team around him and he’d be good enough to win.

      The problem for me is Geno is becoming too expensive for just “good”. The NFL vastly overpays the 2nd tier quarterbacks (in my opinion), because they can pay them and win a decent amount of games even if they aren’t true SB contenders.

  8. Thomas

    Well I’m glad I don’t need to make the call on that.

    I’d say no unless Caleb Williams starts to fall because teams are acting foolishly. But if you don’t like the QBs next year…

    I’ll bet John wanted to take Levis and Pete said no.

  9. CFA

    This is what I’ve been saying for a long time, how do you expect to draft a good QB if our team almost always chooses between pick 18-22, a case like Mahomes’s I don’t think will happen again, Maye fulfills JS’s qualities, I think Drew Allar (Rob will probably talk about him next year) fulfills them too, maybe more things need to be corrected than Maye, but he fits perfectly with the types of QB that JS likes, if we want a good QB, not a DECENT one, we will have to be extremely aggressive, unless our team has a big drop and we finish in the top 10 in the draft (which is possible)

    • Spectator

      Allar is a statue and nothing like a JS QB. Ewers, Maybe Howard, maybe Leaonard or Van Dyke, but not Allar. Not saying Allar wont excel next year, but he is not creative or mobile. If you are a PSU fan, hes a slightly better Hackenberg

  10. Sparky

    Maye seems like such a Josh Allen type. Could easily see John getting enamored. And Jayden Daniels seems like a no-brainer.

    I just wonder: Is this how he wants to begin a new era with a defensive-minded HC? Put all the chips in for a QB? Seems like itd be hard to get Macdonald on board.

    But maybe this is the kind of shot he’s always wanted to take but Pete was too loyal to Russ.

    • Rob Staton

      I’m pretty sure Macdonald, a first-time Head Coach, will be on board with anything the SB-winning GM plans

    • BK26

      I bet MacDonald was told: “whatever we do at qb will be all on me.”

      Schneider hasn’t been waiting this entire time to have someone else keep making the calls.

  11. Denver Hawker

    Does it need to be #3 for Maye? I can only see maybe the Giants at #6 or Falcons at #8 taking him but maybe just as likely to go OL and JJ, respectively. Could be an easier trade up option.

    • Rob Staton

      Yes — I think if NE doesn’t want Maye, someone else will (at #3)

  12. Cysco

    What’s really interesting is looking at the similarities between Drew Lock and Drake Maye. It’s uncanny.

    Both are 6’4” and weigh 227-229 lbs

    Final year stats:
    Passing YDS:
    Lock: 3,500
    Maye: 3,600

    Attempts/Completions
    Lock: 437/275 – 63%
    Maye:425/269 – 63%

    YDS per Attempt
    Lock: 8
    Maye: 8.5

    TD:
    Lock: 28
    Maye:24

    INT:
    Lock: 8
    Maye: 9

    They were/are essentially the same player stats wise.

    • Rob Staton

      Trade up confirmed 😂

      • Cysco

        Yep.
        Pack it up boys. our work here is done. See everyone next year.

    • cha

      I’m seeing double!

      Four Drew Locks!

      • Sea Mode

        How many #1 QBs would that give us…?

    • Andrew

      Lock played 4 yrs, Maye 3, lets see who used there legs better,

      2015 Missouri SEC FR QB 12 52 28 0.5 1 0 0 0 52 28 0.5 1
      2016 Missouri SEC SO QB 12 52 123 2.4 1 1 21 21.0 1 53 144 2.7 2
      *2017 Missouri SEC JR QB 13 43 111 2.6 1 0 0 0 43 111 2.6 1
      *2018 Missouri SEC SR QB 13 55 175 3.2 6 0 0 0 55 175 3.2 6
      Career Missouri 202 437 2.2 9 1 21 21.0 1 203 458 2.3 10

      1 td for Lock, using legs

  13. Roy Batty

    I think the narrative you’ve created with this string of articles has been spot-on.

    That narrative firmly states, “Anything is possible.”

    And I wholeheartedly agree. That is why this draft has me on the edge of my seat, more so than the last two.

  14. EmperorMA

    I am totally down for selling the farm if John Schneider and Mike Macdonald believe in one of this year’s QB prospects.

    After re-watching a few key Seahawks games from the past season, my overwhelming #1 objective for the team going forward is that it MUST NOT have Geno Smith on the roster. Whatever it takes to get that done works for me.

  15. Brodie

    Fair points and interesting to consider. I think the cost may prove too prohibitive to make the move up to #3, but who knows. Trading away our only pick in the top 75 this year, plus our #1 next year for Maye makes my skin crawl, but I may just be flat out wrong on him. I had similar reservations about Josh Allen and Justin Herbert.

    It will be interesting to see what fleshes out during the combine and the pre-draft process. Last year it was – Stroud scored like a coma patient on the fancy new quiz that the QB’s take. Jalen Carter had the racing death and other concerns. There was the Laramy Tunsil gas mask fiasco. Josh Allen was a racist. Will Levis ate bananas with the peel on and put mayo in his coffee. Silly season is almost upon us.

    You’ve potentially opened Pandoras Box in the comment section regardless. The JJ McCarthy truthers are going to be here any minute asking why not a smaller trade up for their guy?

    • cha

      I think the cost may prove too prohibitive to make the move up to #3,

      Huh?

      Straight up swap Geno for #3.

      //wipes hands

      That’s job done.

      • Brodie

        That’s right! I totally forgot that was the valuation. Still not sure the Hawks should do that though. Maybe if they throw in next year’s #2.

        • geoff u

          Psh, I’d take nothing less than two 1sts. Have we all forgotten that Geno is the new GOAT?

        • cha

          I still can’t believe MSD said what he did.

          I asked him on twitter to confirm he actually believes that and got no reply.

          The Youtube comment section was absolutely roasting him.

          So strange to see a paid reporter for a publication like The Athletic (who charges for content) talk like a common fanboy.

      • Dancingeek

        😂

  16. Peter

    A lot is made about building up the roster first. Seattle did it once before and it seems the right thing to do. But is it?

    I looked at the starters from the 2016 to 2018 chiefs roster.

    In 2017 and 2018 the chiefs only had 12 total draft selections.

    From the 2016 roster to the ’18 roster 14 (!!) Players had been switched out as starters including two olinemen.

    Then in 2019 another 11 players were switched as starters. Including a new center and not counting but need to be mentioned a further two olinemen were placed back into starting roles in different positions then they had. So essentially a new oline from a year prior. Three players in new positions.

    My overall point is that if the league’s current dynasty with few resources can make the most important move and key roster changes to get to the AFC title game and then take that roster and make yet another 11 key roster moves to hoist the Lombardi in two full seasons I think maybe we should fret less about having the perfect roster first.

  17. geoff u

    Williams and Daniels seem destined to go 1 and 2 and it’d take a epic haul to get either of them. Maye, on the other hand, I could see slipping. If the Patriots aren’t convinced and pass, other teams may as well (ala Levis last year). I doubt he falls like Levis did, but if he slips enough where Seattle is in range and willing to trade up to grab him like KC did with Mahomes, I could absolutely see it happening.

    Then grab Rattler in the 3rd and let the two battle it out. Finding a franchise QB is the single most important thing you can do to win championships and it’s time to go all in.

  18. Ross

    How much pick compensation does including Geno Smith alleviate? This could be why Seattle has decided to take on Geno’s 2024 cap hit of $27M, right? Because it allows us to keep a 1st or 2nd round pick in 2025 or 2026 in the event of a trade up?

    A trade up certainly feels unlikely as JS has never done something of this magnitude, but circumstances dictate everything and he had RW for most of his tenure as well as PC having a huge say. All this to say, if JS is so keen on a QB to do something like this, i’m 100% on board.

    • Cysco

      IMO Geno has to be viewed as nothing more than a throw-in as part of any deal. No one is trading for Geno as their future. He’d be for a different team, what he is for us – A serviceable veteran starter for this season and maybe next.

      If the deal without Geno is our first and third this year along with our first and third next year. Maybe throwing in Geno allows us to save our 3rd this year? He wouldn’t drastically change the compensation.

  19. Mick

    I agree we’d need #3 to land a top QB, but I’m not sure the Pats are in for a deal. Have you seen this, Rob?
    https://twitter.com/ChadGraff/status/1762493550455882196

    • Rob Staton

      To be fair, that’s exactly what he’d say to that question whether he wanted one or wanted to trade down

  20. bmseattle

    It seems like Maye is polarizing enough that he *might* slip a little, but if Rob is saying #3 for him, I would defer to him.

    If JS has a great relationship with Wolf jr., it might be easier to trade up to 3 than, say, 6, anyway.

    Not having the mid-round 2nd pick likely makes a trade up untenable.
    Though, I suppose if they are willing to give up multiple, future 1sts, maybe they could get it done.

    It would certainly be exciting and give us lot’s to talk about. Which would be good, since our draft would basically be over.

  21. Cawww

    Love this article Rob. Such a great thought process and you laid this all out exceptionally. Getting a Franchise QB is by far the most important part of the Seahawks future. If you believe the guy is in the draft, you have to make the move up (if its even possible). I was all-in last offseason on moving up to #1 for Richardson or Stroud, and it still frustrates me that they didn’t do it. I personally don’t think the guy to move up for is in this draft, but if JS thinks he is, then go get him.

  22. UkAlex6674

    But JS didn’t love Mahomes enough to trade up?

    • Rob Staton

      He had prime Russell Wilson, Alex

  23. hoggs41

    Only argument I would have is does he really like two guys where the trade could be early or would it just be one of the two and the trade is made right before the pick. I doubt he would fall in live with both guys but I could for see it being one of them. Not sure they could get to number 2 unless Washington could get to number 1. Great talking point.

  24. Blitzy the Clown

    the Texans moved from #12 to #3 a year ago and it cost them the #33 pick and a future first only. So you can never be quite sure on the price or the competition.

    I think this is well observed and well stated. If NE and/or WAS don’t rate either Maye or Daniels as high as a prospect at a different position, say WR or TE or OT (each position has at least one blue chip player available), that they could get after the trade down, then the compensation needn’t be obscene. I tend to think it will because of the structure of this particular class with 3 top tier QBs. But it might not be.

    And your observation about the connections between the Seattle and NE FOs makes for intriguing speculation. If similar dynamics set up in this draft as last year, Seattle might be able to move up to 3 from 16 for a 2025 R1 + 2024 R3 + ??? Maybe Smith? Maybe a 2025 R3?

    I’d love to see Jayden Daniels in Seahawks Blue. I’m not sold on Maye personally. But I’m not a pro scout. If Schneider thinks enough of him to make that kind of move, I’m excited.

  25. Andrew

    Great article! If we keep G.Smith my concern is we finish in the pick #13 to #20 range again, next yrs qb class is considered weaker however guys can move up after great unexpected years, Burrow, LSU qb this year ect. If the Seahawks did not use the extra ammo from the trade with Russ to get a qb, had better ammo then Carolina to move last yr, in my opinion they will have to move on a qb at some point and give up assets unless they like Huskies or South Carolina QB and move on theme earlier then consensuses to assure they get there guy…At the very least its a convo worth having, lets be honest if they can fire Pete anything is possible in regards to there QB situation…Cheers

  26. Hawks93548

    Trading up for a quarterback is very intriguing.

    Although it probably won’t happen, I think it would be so much better if they could trade more players and limit the number of additional picks other than #16 in the trade.

    What players would you absolutely not consider trading at all?

    For me, Witherspoon is the first player that I wouldn’t want to trade. JSN is another. Mafe comes to mind. I also wouldn’t want to trade any offensive linemen that Grubb likes. I’m probably missing some others. But there aren’t a ton of players on the team that I view as off limits.

    What about these possibilities?

    The #16 pick, DK Metcalf, Tariq Woolen, and Ken Walker for the #3 pick.

    Or maybe take away one of those players to trade up to somewhere later in the top 10 to draft a quarterback that they like that is still there?

    Just brainstorming here.

    But it seems like there are options to prevent giving up too many additional draft picks even if some people don’t like the idea at all.

  27. Waldo

    Thank you Rob for all the great content. I appreciate how you expand upon (or shoot down when necessary) ideas that your readers are interested in talking about

  28. Happy Hawk

    Another thought-provoking article from Rob. On Fire! Listening to JS say over and over he has only drafted 2 QB’s in 14 years – makes me think he has an “itch” and a plan. Could be trading up (hope it is not a T Lance move), or it is Pennix Jr at #16 all along, or even a 2 year plan by trading down and building the young roster and purging the aging non-producers – then go after your QGOF next year. In any event – this off season should be exciting. Thanks again Rob.

  29. Palatypus

    I noticed that again this year we are all ignoring the most important topic: the staring contest with John Scheider during the interview. It is up to me to handicap it then. This year’s favorite is Xavier Thomas, EDGE, Clemson.

    https://www.nfl.com/prospects/xavier-thomas/32005448-4f41-0701-7963-119e70113d58

    Don’t let the bow tie fool you.

  30. Unio

    JS has more horsepower than he will ever again be afforded to makeover the roster, and enact an epic trade-up maneuver than he has right now. I cannot imagine in his discussions with Jody Allen he would earn her confidence and a promotion with anything less than bold ideas. Is this not true also for recruiting the HC? One does not attract a football mind and character such as Macdonald purely with offers of resplendent wealth. This, every team can provide. No, you attract him with visions of what could be…bold ideas. At this moment JS can pretty much do whatsoever he desires. New HC, new promotion, unimpeded for the first time to shape the roster to his ideal scene, it is my hope that JS will strike while the iron is hot to find his QB and mold the team around him. IMO, Daniels would be a true coup; I’m not sold on Maye at #3 and I have taken grief for believing JJ McCarthy is under-rated and not-worthy. It’s all good; my opinion means nothing. Whomever JS and MM select as QB, I for one, trust their judgment to make the best decision.

    • Brodie

      For what it’s worth, your comment yesterday about JJ’s ample frame and the vigor of his arm was an instant classic in my eyes. Now, resplendent wealth…

      Keep posting Unio, you have a way with words. Where do you live?

      • Unio

        Thank you, my friend; you are kind to say this thing. A mentor, in a different unit of time, guided me into seeing all writing as an opportunity of painting with words, adding color to an otherwise arthritic form of communication. Color, I might add, which is warmly embraced on these cold, gray, northwest days.

  31. DK

    Great Article Rob, but lets talk about the biggest news of the day!

    https://x.com/cougsgo/status/1762886268197945449?s=20

    Congrats Rob!

    • geoff u

      Nice

    • BK26

      Hell. Fricking. Yes.

      Congrats Rob.

    • Peter

      Heck yeah!!

    • Rob Staton

      Thanks guys!

      For a long time I’ve dreamt about a regular slot talking Seahawks on the radio, as someone who loves and works in radio over here

      So grateful to Puck and Jim for giving me the chance and hope you will all tune in Wednesday’s at noon or will check out the podcast version (which I will embed)

      • Film12Hawk

        Yay! So excited for you, Rob! Congrats!

      • Ben Fort Worth

        Congrats!!

      • Andrew Taylor

        Congrats.. awesome news. I will be listening either live or on the podcast version to every one. Is there somewhere we can post and thank Superior Linen for sponsoring this. Puck and Jim have gained a fan. This is just so cool.

    • Palatypus

      Congratulations!

      And FINALLY !!!

    • James Cr.

      And boom goes the dynamite!

    • Big Mike

      Awesome! Very happy for you Rob. We’ll deserved.

    • Bmseattle

      So cool, and long overdue!

    • Brodie

      No way! Just in time too!

      Congrats Rob

    • Huggie Hawk

      Congrats Rob!

    • crazykind

      Yesssssss! Congrats Rob, Seattle radio just got smarter….

    • Ben

      Heck yeah! Congrats, will be cool to have you local radio!

  32. BK26

    FWIW, the only players that I would move up for would be Daniels and Maye. Maye is oddly intriguing. Any other qb and I have a decisive answer. With Maye, it turns into “eh, yeah I’m ok with getting him.” Just a simple “sure.”

    Robinson or Verse I would entertain jumping a pick or two, otherwise it is trying to trade back.

    With Daniels, you can get by with the athleticism while the line is improved. Maye can sit if needed. Maye fits what we know about Schneider; literally the mantra of “focus on what he CAN do, not what he can’t.”

    Draft is very intriguing coming away with Maye (or Daniels; or Rattler). Otherwise it just feels like a draft where nothing flashy is done and the team’s backbone is strengthened. Won’t feel too exciting, no massive needle movers.

  33. Film12Hawk

    It’s worth considering that we can assume we have a better relationship with the Patriots with Eliot Wolf running the show as mentioned above by bmseattle at #3 and also the Chargers at #5 with the Jay Harbaugh and Mike Mcdonald connection to Jim. There’s also the Jets at #10 to leap frog the Broncos and Raiders with Joe Douglas. So if there’s ever a year to go out swinging to get our QB it is this year!

  34. Canadian Hawk

    If the idea is to focus on what each player could become, then I think the 24 class has way more depth/options than what we’re currently seeing for 25.

    This would be the year to do it.

  35. Z$

    I know it’s not the be all end all, but Rap reporting Seahawks met with Jayden Daniels

  36. brewduck

    Rob- just wanted to shoutout the old school Canucks hat you’re wearing in the latest video. Such a dope hat!

    Thanks for everything and looking forward to the next few weeks!

    • cha

      The clean logo and blue/green, and the black/orange/yellow are amazing Canucks getups.

      Their current killer whale ones are not good. The blue/purple whale were awful too.

  37. ShowMeYourHawk

    Maye seems Iike the mystery man in this this year’s QB crop. He was immediately slotted as the overall #2 pick without much hype. Daniels, Nix, Penix and McCarthy all have hype. Maye? Nothing. Could he slip past #5-6? If NE sticks and takes Harrison and ARI pivots to Odunze or Nabers, all bets are off. Can see John trading up to #6 or #7 if Maye is his guy.

    That said, I’m unreasonably salivating at the idea that we somehow end up with Daniels.

    • BK26

      Many, for me, either one makes it an exciting draft.

      Completely changes the feel of the team too. There’s the home run, the power bat. Nothing wrong with Geno and Drew, but we’ve seen it all. You can only watch a decent show so many times.

    • StillDecidingOnMyHandle

      Who is this year’s Blake Bortles? That’s what I want to know,

  38. CJ

    I just want the Hawks to go after a QB. Not wait for one to fall to them, or continue with Geno. Find your guy and go get him.

    And I still have PTSD after the 2017 draft. Seeing players like Njoku and Watt still on the board and we trade down for Malik…

    • Blitzy the Clown

      I don’t want that if it costs too much. Too many other holes to fill and I don’t think anyone other than Caleb Williams warrants the expense to acquire. I’m not saying I think it’d be worth the cost to trade up to 1 for Williams. Only that he’s the one prospect worthy of it.

  39. line_hawk

    No 3 for
    – 24 & 25 1st
    – Geno
    – Witherspoon (these drafts are loaded with CBs and Spoon is great but he is not a game changer)

    Would that be so bad if Schneider is sold?

    • Rob Staton

      You can’t trade Witherspoon

    • 509 Chris

      Spoon is easily worth 2 firsts alone. He’s also one of the only bright spots on the Defense. A move like that for the 3rd qb in the draft just doesn’t make sense. If you were talking with Chicago than ok maybe you trade spoon. Not for Maye though.

    • cha

      It would cost an extra $7.88 million on the cap to trade Witherspoon at this point.

      $15m dead.

      Not happening.

    • nfendall

      I don’t understand why you include Witherspoon in this trade. He is the only player currently on the roster that looks like he could be a legit blue chip stud and he is still on a rookie contract, even if it is one the more expensive ones.

    • Andrew

      I agree line_hawk, if we traded #5 last yr & this yrs #1 with one of our wrs would we be mad with C.J Stroud record braking rookie passer….JS was asked about Spoon and he said he was hurt alot and he finished the yr to light weight wise and it hurt his play on the CBS interview…Gotta give something to get something and for a shot at a franchise qb, I would do it in a heartbeat.

  40. Z$

    I still find it interesting that PC/JS stated that coming out of last year’s draft, one of their goals was to have more picks in this year’s draft. This was of course pre LW trade, which smells more of PC short-term thinking. Having wanted more picks this year could mean two things – the obvious more draft stock for more players, or potentially more draft stock for a move up. We know they very seriously considered qb last year, and a contingency plan could very well have been to accumulate assets in this draft for a trade up for a QB given the perceived strength of the class. Schefter made it blatantly plain that the Seahawks are shopping Geno, and you can certainly put together a puzzle that indicates the Seahawks are willing to do something bold for a QB of the future if the chips fall right.

    • BK26

      Not as a counter, but about half of the expected qb’s went back to school for a year. Bad timing, especially if that was part of the plan for this season.

      • Z$

        Completely agree.

    • Rob Staton

      I need to add that to the article, about wanting more stock this year

  41. LouCityHawk

    Is there somewhere posting measurements already? I’ve seen some people quote them but can’t seem to find it.

  42. TwilightError

    It’s fun speculation now that we don’t really know how they operate without Carroll. I could not see them making such a move with Carroll, but now, who knows? Maybe they are crazy aggressive if there is the guy they really want…

    This draft is especially fun with the second basket of quarterbacks being almost as interesting to project as the first one.

  43. Big Mike

    Is fun article Rob. Great food for thought. I agree it’s unlikely they’ll trade up but as the old saying goes fortune favors the bold. Maybe John will be bold.

  44. HawksFanMattMan

    This is exactly the kind of advantage that Schneider is attempting to cultivate with his off-season moves and public comments; that a perfectly reasoned argument like this, or one for a completely opposite approach, or anything in between, could credibly be made regarding the direction the team will go. No one knows and that’s what he loves.

  45. 509 Chris

    I try to not dwell on it or sound like a broken record but as Rob said 12 months ago, last year was the year to draft a qb. They had ample draft capital and a native pick far more attractive for trading purposes. No one they took in the first 3 picks are more valuable than had they went and got Stroud or AR. I dont even want to discuss passing on Levis twice it makes me sick. Tennessee fans have a ton of optimism now. So far I really like McDonald and what they seem to be all about but it would be so nice if they had a young qb in the wings as well. Maybe they’ll pass again and Ewers is the plan in 25 while using this year to shed bad cap and let a young coaching staff get their feet wet.

    Rob (and cha) as always your work has been amazing so far this year. I really appreciate the voices here navigating the waters of our new world for the casual fan.

    • Ben Fort Worth

      Agree 100%

      Should’ve found a way to trade up.

  46. J

    What are peoples thoughts on Cooper DeJean?

    Seems like he could fit that Kyle Hamilton role (not comparing him to Hamilton, just they are both super versatile players in the secondary). But haven’t seen much discussion.

    Won’t be working out at the combine due to injury, maybe we will see him at his pro day.

  47. MarkinSeattle

    I like Ritter who I think is a great option in the third round. I agree that a trade up for a QB is likely not in the cards and I am not a big fan of Maye.

    For ‘25 QB’s my hope is that Leonard has a good year. He will be working with the OC who turned Jaden Daniels into a Heisman winner and the #2 pick in the draft. I also feel that there will be some other QBs who emerge in ‘25, so I am fine waiting until next year and giving a lock a shot at running the offense this year. If he rises to the occasion, then maybe we don’t need a QB. If he doesn’t, then we have a high pick to select a QB.

    • 509 Chris

      I think if they want Rattler they need to trade back into the early 2nd late 1st for him. Someone will decide he’s worth taking a shot on before the 3rd and waiting around on qb’s has really hurt this franchise over the last few years.

  48. Denver Hawker

    Hoge opinions reserved, pretty harsh words on Drake Maye: https://x.com/theherd/status/1762578679241359743?s=46&t=cOHU3a7sncZq-_1QP4M1Og

    • BK26

      Not going to lie, Merril Hoge’s takes make me think that he has pretty much lost it. Saying that McCarthy has a cannon? Maye 6th for the qb’s?

      As far as I’m concerned, JJ McCarthy probably called him “sir” once so he likes him more. Maye might have asked what Hoge does for a living and offended him.

    • Ben Fort Worth

      Merril Hoge dunking all over Colin/Russ with Kenny Pickett was the best thing I’ve seen on The Herd all year.

      He was also dunking on Caleb Williams. I’d take it with a grain of salt.

    • Mike

      Pay zero attention to anything he says, at least about QBs. He has been right before but so has a broken clock. He gives off strong get off my lawn vibes. All you need to know about his QB scouting is that he thought Brian Brohm had a higher upside than Aaron Rodgers.

  49. Blitzy the Clown

    Corbin K. Smith @CorbinSmithNFL

    Each NFL team can have 45 formal meetings at the combine. Here’s the ones for #Seahawks that are known after today:

    -Jayden Daniels
    -Kris Jenkins
    -Marshawn Kneeland
    -Dallas Turner
    -Bralen Trice
    -Johnny Newton
    -Junior Colson
    -Trevin Wallace

    12:11 PM · Feb 28, 2024

    • Peter

      Interesting with Jenkins, Colson two players you’d think they get the most Intel on, in house.

      • Nick

        But remember, JS may want to speak and talk to confirm what he’s heard from MM et al.

        Coaches aren’t there, just JS and the scouting dept from what I understand.

    • ShowMeYourHawk

      Trevin Wallace is an interesting interview. A Day 3 option for ILB?

  50. Ben Fort Worth

    I can’t see any scenario where Schneider leap frogs Sean Payton for a QB. But then again, I’ve seen weird stuff before in the draft. Maye’s character is A+++, he absolutely crushes interviews. He’s a coaches wet dream. He’d be right up there with Stroud and Richardson if not higher in last year’s crop.

  51. Dustin

    Enjoyed the radio spot you wanker. 👍

    • Brodie

      I fancied it too

  52. DHawk

    First time poster, longtime lurker.

    Rob, huge appreciation for what you do. Your analysis is unmatched.

    On moving up to draft a QB, I’d quibble with the track record. Yes, JS is unmatched here: RW, Mahomes, Allen.

    But don’t we need to include other positions in the analysis? Why would a GM be good at picking QBs but less good at picking other positions? Shouldn’t we heavil weight the full sample size of drafting at all positions and chalk the entire track record up to judgment?

    If looked at that way, I’d say we’ve had some big wins and big losses. Slightly above average hit rate but not massively above average, beyond the first few years (after which the league adjusted).

    In which case, I’d personally be more excited about sticking to the higher expected value play of trading down and getting more shots on goal vs doing the opposite of our historical value strategy and betting it all. Btw, our best moves have been value (RW, Marshawn) and bet it all has been pretty lousy (Adams, Graham).

    He has earned our trust and I’m excited for him to finally get to swing the bat unencumbered, but I’d personally prefer we stick to value rather than swinging for the fences.

    • Brodie

      Some of our best picks have been trade-ups too though. Not to the extent of moving into the top 10, but Tyler and DK were both trade ups where value presented itself.

      My sneaky suspicion is that they are indeed targeting Penix, but still want to trade down (then maybe back up). They don’t want to tip their hand or get caught out, by trading Geno and then missing on his replacement. I think if they can get Penix, they will deal Geno and let Lock and Penix battle it out. Rattler could be another option, but I don’t think Nix fits the Grubb offense.

      If they miss out on Penix (and Rattler?) they’ll roll with Geno.

      • James Z

        I can only concur. Trading down and getting a 2nd gives them the possibility of drafting Penix in the late 1st or maybe even 2nd or Rattler in the 2nd and if neither one is available (or desired) if available there are plenty a big hits in the late 1st and in the 2nd.

      • DHawk

        Good points. Jarran Reed too, as Rob noted. To my mind those are all value picks. Guys who dropped farther than they should. I’m really just unexcited about how much we’d have to pay up to go into a very top pick, where by definition it’s almost impossible for someone to have fallen way farther than they should.

    • Peter

      Since it’s quibbling day on the blog.

      John’s record drafting qbs is just Wilson. Until the next one is drafted we just that to go on.

      I do worry about some of his blind spots in the draft: dline anyone?

      I know John liked other qbs but I don’t know how singular he was in their appraisal vs the rest of the league since we know two other coach/gm combos did pull the trigger on them.

      • Brodie

        Yep. I mentioned in another section how they passed on Mazi Smith for JSN, Keanu Benton for Hall, Pickens and Dexter for Charbonnet last year. When everyone knew that DT was a glaring need. Everyone was focusing on Jalen Carter, but that wasn’t the only shot we had at a DT.

        This is one position that I’m eager to see if the approach changes. Forever, it felt like they just treated DT as an afterthought. Grab some fatass and plug him in there after cut-down day seemed like the approach. Then we traded for LW and (I think) there have been mentions that it was a JS driven move. Maybe Pete was a big factor in ignoring DT?

        If they sign LW, I can see them mostly passing on DT again. If they don’t sign him and then pass on Sweat, Ruke, Mckinnley, etc. I’m going to be pretty disappointed.

  53. MMjohns195

    i don’t believe in trading up for a qb. There’s a great article on the Athletic about it and how rarely it works out. Honestly we’re using the outliers to justify trading up to get a QB, but i don’t see seattle as a team that is likely to take a risk like that, unlike say KC when they traded for Mahomes, they had an established veteran starter AND a pretty complete team around them. The cost was significatly less for the mahomes trade than it would be today. I don’t think anyone views seattles roster as being complete.

    Here’s a snippet of that athletic article:

    “Teams have traded up or into the first round to select a quarterback 28 times in the past 30 drafts dating back to 1994. Mahomes has won 14 playoff games in his six seasons as a starter entering Sunday’s game against the 49ers. The other 27 quarterbacks who were selected after a team traded up have combined for 36 postseason wins. Ten of those victories (one in the Super Bowl) belong to Joe Flacco, who was selected 18th by the Ravens in 2008 after Baltimore moved up by trading the 26th pick along with third- and sixth-round selections to the Texans. Eight of those wins (two in the Super Bowl) belong to Eli Manning, the No. 1 pick of the Giants in 2004 after New York traded the No. 4 pick, a future first-round pick and other compensation to the Chargers.

    That leaves 18 playoff wins for the other 25 quarterbacks.

    Seventeen of the 28 quarterbacks who were acquired via first-round trade never won a playoff game with the teams that drafted them, and only nine of those quarterbacks signed an extension with the teams that drafted them before the expiration of their respective rookie contracts. (Note: Jordan Love of the Packers, Justin Fields of the Bears and Bryce Young of the Panthers are all still playing on their rookie contracts with their original teams and could land extensions.)”

    • Matt

      I mean this with all due respect…I’d caution making any data arguments when we are talking about 28 data points, in a sport that has so many variables.

      It’s part of the reason I think football analytics are relatively garbage. It’s just not a sport that allows for clean, objective data inputs required to form a proper, objective analysis.

      It’s possible with Baseball, but not football.

      I think what happens with many of these teams, is that trade ups for QBs are out of desperation, not a tactical move. KC with Mahomes. BAL with Lamar.

      I firmly believe the best time to be aggressive to get a high end QB is when you’re not desperate to get one. We all know Geno’s time is limited, but he’s still a capable starting QB. Now is exactly the time to make this move because I guarantee the scouting/analysis of these QBs is at its best because again, we have a functioning QB and aren’t forced to make chicken salad out of chicken shit. We can see the warts and make grounded decisions based on “is that wart a killer or something we can fix?”

      Again, I think the best scouting happens when you’re not desperate. We’ve seen it firsthand in Seattle in drafts. When we go BPA – awesome. When we have to fill a need? Usually awful.

      • MMjohns195

        Going to respectfully disagree. 28 Data points are more than sufficient in this case. We’re not talking about 5/6 over a 3/5 year period. This is nearly 30 years of data, and nearly thirty transactions. Your point about Lamar and Mahomes are good examples of the minority. Taking the percentages, it’s roughly about 18% of the trades working out. I’ll also state that Mahomes / Lamar are outside the top 10, so the cost wasn’t as prohibitive, and both rosters were significantly better than Seattle’s roster today.

        • Matt

          28 data points is minute. Those 28 data points also have an insane amount of variables where it’s virtually impossible to create any sort of objective data input. If the data input requires significant subjectivity, the resulting analysis is worthless. Again, football is an incredibly poor sport to attempt analytics. There’s virtually no scenario that comes down to a 1 on 1 matchup that requires no subjectivity.

          I’m pushing back because there is literally no baseline that can be created in these scenarios. Again – the variables are endless.

    • Peter

      Disagree that KC had a complete or fairly complete team when selecting Mahomes.

      See: above.

      From the time he was drafted to the start of his first season starting they rotated out 14 starters on offense and defense. That’s not a complete roster. That looks more like an on the fly rebuild/retool/ re- whatever to me.

    • BK26

      So I guess having an established started and a good team is a good idea. Check and mostly check.

      If you have a guy, you go get him. It’s that simple. Jordan Love, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson. They were all traded up for and those teams aren’t complaining.

      And the Chiefs were not a complete team when they traded up for Patrick Mahomes. One thing that WAS missing was a top-end qb.

      Have to get your guy. It stinks, but drafting is hard. Good thing that well-ran teams tend to be better than others.

      • MMjohns195

        You are picking the outliers again, the most likely scenario is that you’re not getting one of those guys, it’s not even really 50/50 chance, its’ more like 18-82% you’re not getting the guy. I’ll say again that Mahomes, Jackson, Love are guys who were drafted outside the top ten and as a result didnt’ cost nearly as much to move up.

        Kc was a more complete team than seattle was given the situation, they had won the division in back to back years.

        The majority feeling on the blog has been that Geno isn’t really that good and doesn’t make a difference, so can you really say he’s an established starter when everyone wants to run him off?

        • BK26

          They’re all outliers. You can look at the ones that didn’t work out: were the teams horrible? Was the coach on the hot seat? The ones that work out are still part of the data point. We’re talking about trading up for a quarterback. Some teams are better and smarter, so their chances of failure would be hypothetically different.

          You don’t have to trade to #3. Odds are, we can’t afford it. If Maye is sitting at 10 and the team is open to it, why not? If that is John Schneider’s guy, almost have to do it.

          KC was still not a complete team either way. Fans were pretty frustrated down here. They had the giant, glaring hole that we currently do: no long-term qb. Like us, couldn’t get over the hump, no matter how far we each got.

          Chiefs also said the exact same thing about Alex Smith: not good enough. They were both better (slightly or more-so) than replacement level. They are established starters, just not good enough to win a Super Bowl.

    • Brodie

      Ya, but people don’t play the lottery to have a chance at winning rent for a month. They play it to change their lives forever.

      NFL front offices aren’t full of idiots who want to lose their jobs. If something has been tried 28 times in 30 years there is a good reason.

      The success rate may be bad, but you also need to think about the opportunity cost of the 900 or so times that teams stayed put, drafted a ‘safe pick’ and it was a bust too. The time Denver traded up for Paxton Lynch was a bust, but we moved down and took Ifedi & Procise who weren’t exactly a hall-of-famers. At least Denver shot their shot though.

      I’m not arguing for trading up or down, but we shouldn’t be afraid to try it because it hasn’t worked a lot of the time. It’s a high risk, high reward move that can change the fortunes of a team.

      • Rob Staton

        PFF’s top-three QB’s in 2023

        Allen
        Mahomes
        Jackson

        All three, a team traded up for them

      • BK26

        Perfect analogy. Sports is really gambling. The successful ones are the smarter ones. But bottom line, it’s all a gamble even in the best of circumstances.

    • Denver Hawker

      Not a data guy, but this seems to correlate to R1 QB picks in general, less specific to trades.

      • Mmjohns195

        It’s specifically referencing trade up’s.

        • Brodie

          If the overall hit rate on R1 QB’s is 20% and the ‘trade up’ hit rate on R1 QB’s is 20%, which is the driver though?

          • Mmjohns195

            The 20% referenced was specific to QBs traded up for

            • Denver Hawker

              I’m suggesting that the logic used here to disparage trading up for a QB is likely the same logic to disparage drafting one altogether. The success rate (if measured by playoff wins suggested here) isn’t high for R1 QBs but that doesn’t mean you don’t take one and trading for one doesn’t lessen the prospective outcome.

    • geoff u

      While I appreciate the data, trading up is not what causes a QB to bust. The two are unrelated. It’s rather thin to try and connect these two things.

      Fact is, the higher up you pick, the better your odds are. You have about a 40% chance to get a pro bowl level player in round 1, 18% in round 2, and 10% in round three, and it only gets worse from there. As far as odds go, depends on what you give up. Is drafting two 2nd round QB’s (18% chance each, 36% cumulative) better than drafting one 1st round QB (40% chance)? Probably not. Also depends where in the round you pick, you’re odds are highest with the #1 overall pick and lowest with the 32nd overall pick. But yes, trading up gives you a better percentage chance to hit on a pick.

  54. GoHawksDani

    I hope for one of these scenarios:
    A, trade back, pick up R2, trade Geno, build lines, LB, S, see if you can get Rattler, McCarthy or Penix in R3 and if it doesn’t work try again QBOTF for next year and roll with Lock this year

    B, make a big move to get one of the top3 QBs (probably only Maye is a real option or Daniels if he falls a bit for some reason). I love Daniels. His legs make him a safe pick (if he doesn’t read/QBing good enough at least he can run amazingly), he has a good hand and he’s just an exciting prospect. Maye is much less exciting, he could become the next Lock or something, but he has some Allen and a tiny bit of Mahomes in his play also…so I could get behind that move

    What I don’t want is a QB which is not a top3 drafted in R1. Rattler could be a franchise QB maaaaaaaaybe, Nix too… but I just don’t see it for McCarthy or Penix. And messing with the line and receivers because your QB is left handed only for 1-2 year just worsen the situation for me with Penix. In R3, OK, roll the dice, but pls no in R1/2

  55. Collins

    They absolutely should trade up if they have their guy. Take a risk. Swing for the fence. We aren’t going to be a team that pushes for the Super Bowl every year until we find our QB. Keeping Geno and filling the trenches in the 1st round the next 2 years does us no good until we can find good, consistent, competent production from the QB.

    If you see your guy and you can make a move to a spot that you can get him then you have to go for it. If he’s not in this draft then get Verse/Robinson at 16 or trade back, add a few more picks then try again next year.

  56. Forrest

    Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, #16 and next year’s #1? That’d also free up some cap.

    • Rob Staton

      It’ll take more than that

    • cha

      That would free up about $2.5-3m.

      • Forrest

        I was looking at OTC showing savings of:

        Lockett (Pre-June 1 trade) – $7,105,000
        Lockett (Post-June trade) – $17,000,000
        Geno (Pre-June 1 trade) – $(600,000)
        Geno (Post-June 1 trade) – $12,900,000

        Obviously larger savings for 2025.

        https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/seattle-seahawks

        • cha

          You can’t make post-june 1 trades after the draft.

          Lockett +7m
          Geno -600k
          #16 +3.25m
          #3 -7.56m

          $2.09m gain

          • cha

            *before the draft

    • Unio

      Lockett would probably retire rather than accept a trade. He might accept a contract rework to stay for 1-2 more years, though.

  57. bmseattle

    I know Rob will post this so it’s easier to listen to, but here is a link to hour 3 of the Puck and Jim show, for those who want to hear Rob with them from today.

    https://www.iheart.com/podcast/59-puck-27459121/episode/2-28-h3-rob-staton-joins-whats-154954768/

  58. Dave

    While I personally like the idea of a QB, I would be a little Surprised if they made a big leap to get one. The team is showing a lack of commitment to its current QB. Isn’t it a strong possibility that this lack of interest in there own QB just a distraction for other teams not to see their interest in another position

    • Rob Staton

      Not sure it’s worth pissing off your QB in the name of deception, or a very likely plan for them

  59. Christopher

    How do Maye and Will Levis compare as college players and prospects?

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