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These are my predictions for the Seahawks off-season. Let me know how much you disagree with them in the comments section.
1. The Seahawks trade Geno Smith after the combine
From the lukewarm review from John Schneider, the non-committal comments from the new Head Coach and Adam Schefter’s quote-tweet presenting the possibility of a trade, the tea leaves are making it clear this is a distinct possibility.
It’ll require someone to make an offer the Seahawks are prepared to accept but I sense, rightly or wrongly, they are just prepared to move on. I think they want to get younger at the position, have the draft in mind and are willing to roll with Drew Lock if needed.
Rather than cut Smith and receive no compensation, they can flip him before March 18th and get something. They’ll save $13.8m this year and, perhaps more importantly, create $33.7m in cap space for 2025.
If Geno was the unquestioned starter for next season, as many believe, the GM of the Seahawks and the Head Coach had multiple opportunities in the media to make that clear. They didn’t.
This feels like it’s heading in a certain direction. My trade-partner guess would be Pittsburgh. The Seahawks need to receive an offer though, so we’ll see how it plays out. The combine is where any talks would heat up.
2. The Seahawks re-sign Drew Lock and add another veteran
Ryan Grubb says he’s giving new-parent advice to Lock, while Schneider and Mike Macdonald are name-dropping him in questions about Geno Smith. The Seahawks are spelling it out — Lock’s coming back. Whether it’s to act as a cheaper bridge than Smith, a genuine starter or to simply be a backup, they are going to re-sign the 27-year-old.
They were able to keep him without much reported competition a year ago so the likelihood is this will get done.
I think they’ll then sign a veteran backup/competition. Tyler Huntley, Sam Darnold, Joshua Dobbs. That type of player. That way the team has two quarterbacks on the books before the draft.
3. The Seahawks will trade down in the draft
They pick at #16 then have to wait 62 picks until #78 before selecting again. Unless they trade down, they’ll miss out on the meat of the draft class — with a lot of good options at positions of need on day two.
There are teams in the 20’s who could be eyeing an offensive tackle (Green Bay) and several who could be targeting a specific cornerback (Philadelphia, Buffalo, Detroit) so there should be options. The Packers having two second round picks is helpful. It feels like there’s a deal to be done here.
4. The Seahawks will draft a quarterback between picks #25-65
As mentioned earlier, I just get the sense they are going to go younger at the position and launch their new offense with a signal caller they can build around.
Listen to this interview with ESPN’s Brady Henderson on ‘1080 The Fan’. He notes towards the end that the Seahawks, in his opinion, probably liked Anthony Richardson enough to take him with the #5 pick a year ago. However, they were reluctant to set-up a bridge situation where Richardson’s salary and bonus added to the cost of Geno Smith’s contract as it’d be bad value in terms of the cap.
Brady is well connected, so this is worth paying attention to. I came away with two thoughts. Firstly, the Seahawks using Geno as a bridge and adding a rookie to sit behind him is less likely than some of us have thought. Secondly, it lends support to the idea the Seahawks might be comfortable drafting and starting a rookie quarterback rather than making them sit and wait behind a more expensive veteran.
I’m not saying this is the right or wrong way to do things. I think it might be their approach, though. They wouldn’t be the first team to think there’s huge benefit in having a cheaper quarterback, to make the most of the rookie pay-scale. And there could be an extra reason why they feel comfortable doing this…
5. The Seahawks will draft Michael Penix Jr
If you are going to start a rookie next year, it might as well be the one who spent the last two years working with your new offensive coordinator. He’ll know the terminology, he has a good relationship with Ryan Grubb and it could actually be a real benefit for the rest of the team to have a quarterback and coach who can guide as the new offensive structure is built.
Penix Jr won’t be a great fit for every team but I think he is for the Seahawks, as long as any combine medical checks are clear. I spoke to one highly experienced and respected talent evaluator recently and he voiced concern about the Washington quarterback because the offense he played in was full of pre-determined reads. I suspect some teams will share that view. The Seahawks clearly don’t. They just hired the guy who was running Washington’s offense to run theirs.
Penix Jr’s stock in the media has been a rollercoaster. During the season I don’t think enough people recognised he had a difficult stretch of games. After the Sugar Bowl, I think people got especially carried away. John Middlekauff — who’s great — called Penix Jr ‘the clear #2 pick in the draft’. Then he rowed that thought back a week later after the Michigan game. It’s why I wrote this article after the Texas win to try and provide some balance.
Now, I’d argue Penix Jr has become underrated. He’s an afterthought for many. As I said in yesterday’s piece, you can pull up 15 or more throws from the 2023 season alone and make a case that they are as good as anything you’ll ever see in college football. He has elite arm talent, the ability to throw highly difficult layered passes between defenders deep to the sideline, he can throw with outstanding touch 40-50 yards downfield and when you need him to laser a throw through traffic in the red zone, he can do it and make it look easy.
He led the NCAA in play-action passing per PFF’s grading system, he was second only to J.J. McCarthy on third and fourth down accuracy, he had more big-time throws than anyone else in college football last year and he led the NCAA in big-time throws from play-action.
Penix Jr isn’t perfect and there are legit concerns about his awful 23.3% completion percentage on scrambles, the way his completion percentage tailed off last season as pressures increased and the fact he’s not as accomplished on short and intermediate passes.
Yet if you want an explosive offense combining big shots downfield with a tough, physical running game — there’s really nobody better to do this than Penix Jr. He’d have a smoother transition to starting quickly working under Grubb, he’s an experienced and mature player and a good leader. His arm tilts the field and he elevated Washington to within one game of being the best team in the nation.
Trade down a bit, get some more draft stock and then select Penix Jr?
It’s not a ridiculous thought.
6. The Seahawks will part with several big-name players
Jamal Adams will be a post-June 1st cut to save $16.5m. Quandre Diggs’ cap-hit of $21.2m is unsustainable and he is cut to save $11m. I’m torn on what happens with Tyler Lockett but his cap-hit is nearly $27m and it feels like he could also be a post-June 1st departure. Bryan Mone is certain to depart, saving $5.8m. Will Dissly’s $10m cap-hit also warrants monitoring, given they can save $7m by moving on.
On top of Geno Smith potentially being dealt to save $13.8m, this would give the Seahawks ample money to reshape their team and shift resource to different areas.
One final thing I think might happen is the Seahawks waiting until training camp to make a call on Dre’Mont Jones. He had an underwhelming first season in Seattle. If by camp he’s failing to make an impression, or if he simply doesn’t fit, he could be moved to save an extra $11.5m. They can’t trade him until after June 1st, though, to recoup that saving. If it isn’t working — a player swap or a late-round flier could be in order to get the extra cap-room. It could be important too — remember, the Ravens signed Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy later last year and both became vital additions to Macdonald’s defense.
7. The Seahawks retain three key players
I think the Seahawks will hang on to Leonard Williams, even if they have a fight on their hands. He played very well on a struggling team in 2023, is a great fit for the defense and provides the impact interior rusher they’ve been trying to acquire for years. Saving money in 2024 and 2025 by moving others on will create the platform for the Seahawks to make a big move to keep Williams in Seattle.
I think Jordyn Brooks will also be back. It makes sense for him to sign a short-term deal (one or two years) and re-enter the market. Why not work with the Head Coach who turned Patrick Queen from a bust to an all-pro? Coming back to Seattle on a prove-it deal, with a chance to move back inside to middle linebacker, could be good for both parties.
The Grubb offense seems to like pass-catching tight ends and with it being a light draft at the position, bringing Noah Fant back would also make sense. There’s a player in Fant and a reason why he was a top-20 pick. It’s unfortunate he’s not had many opportunities to act as a focal-point pass-catching weapon in his career. I think they roll the dice on him and try to pair him with someone like Cade Stover from Ohio State, who will surprise people with the way he tests at the combine, or Ben Sinnott.
8. Bobby Wagner won’t be back
Everyone appreciates and respects Wagner’s brilliant career in Seattle but it’s time to move on. My guess is he’ll re-join Dan Quinn and Ken Norton Jr in Washington.
I think Colby Parkinson will also move on and try to find a fresh start somewhere else and Damien Lewis will only return if the money’s right for Seattle and if he’s a fit for Scott Huff’s plan for the offensive line.
9. Free agency will be about value
I don’t think the Seahawks will go big-game hunting like they did last year, landing Dre’Mont Jones. Instead I think they’ll touch base with a number of players, with the idea of letting the market come to them in the second wave.
This is how they’ve operated for most of Schneider’s time in Seattle and it’s definitely how the Ravens typically go about their business.
It’s how all the good teams do their business, frankly. Free agency is a place where you pay a premium price for non-premium players. There’s a lot of value to be had, if you play the game and know when to strike.
For example, what kind of market will Carolina’s Frankie Luvu have? Could he be a cost-effective role player for Mike Macdonald? Could a veteran guard such as Kevin Zeitler provide toughness and leadership to a new offensive line? Will Tampa Bay’s Devin White need to take a prove-it deal? How much will Jonah Williams make as a free agent and could his ability to fit at guard or right tackle be vital for a team like the Seahawks, with health questions over Abe Lucas? There was reported interest in Josh Uche before the trade deadline, could he be an option? Is Josey Jewell someone who can help provide leadership and organisation next to Brooks at linebacker?
These are just a few names. It feels like there are plenty of players who, if they make it past the first wave, could offer genuine value. I think that’s what the Seahawks will aim for — with any serious money being invested in the trenches/front seven.
10. The Seahawks will come out of the draft with high grades again
Over the last three weeks I’ve been able to study some of the players I hadn’t previously been able to watch, plus review some others. There’s sufficient depth in rounds 2-4 to feel like it’s very possible for the Seahawks to come out with a haul, should they manage to trade down from #16 to fill the void until they pick at #78.
For example, Iowa State cornerback T.J. Tampa is a big-hitting, tone-setting player with good coverage skills and recovery speed. He fits the Seahawks mentality. Austin Booker at Kansas is a long, high-ceiling edge rusher with untapped potential. Safeties Malik Mustapha and Kitan Oladapo both wowed at times on tape and could help form a new, young, cheaper and more dynamic duo as the last line of defense. Linebacker Nathaniel Watson organised and led Mississippi State’s defense while chiming in with 21 career sacks as a blitzer. Interior offensive linemen Dylan McMahon and Jarrett Kingston could be very intriguing later on. At defensive tackle, Ruke Orhorhoro and McKinley Jackson both have the feel of potential Seahawks. Alabama receiver Jermaine Burton has a lot of the skills Seattle likes, while the Washington duo Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan could provide ‘BPA’ quality at a certain point in the draft. Both are underrated.
I can keep going. Zak Zinter at Michigan is a blog favourite. Emani Bailey’s Senior Bowl performance shone a light on a potentially dynamic third-down runner. Jack Westover was clutch every time the ball came his way. Byron Murphy is expected to test through the roof at defensive tackle. Chop Robinson has scary qualities as a pass-rusher and will be a steal if he lasts beyond the top-10. Payton Wilson plays with his hair on fire and there are a cluster of other linebackers — Cedric Gray, Edgerrin Cooper, Jeremiah Trotter and Junior Colson — who have the potential to start quickly.
It was also incredible re-watching T’Vondre Sweat’s Senior Bowl performance. The bad reps are what they are. The good reps were remarkable — he demolished interior linemen like he was competing against High-Schoolers. I don’t know if the Seahawks value the nose tackle position highly enough to take him very early — but his run defense grade was 92.0 in 2023 —- first among interior defensive linemen. His 12.8% stop percentage (number of times he was responsible for personally stopping the run play) ranked 2nd behind UCF’s Lee Hunter. His pass rush grade was an 85.3 —- seventh best among all interior defensive linemen (team mate Byron Murphy ranked first with a 91.5). His pass rush win percentage (15.3%) ranked sixth best, he had the second most batted passes at the LOS (6) and he ranked 11th for QB hurries (26). In true pass-sets, his win percentage increased to 24.5% (ranked fifth).
Fixing the run defense will be a priority for Schneider and Macdonald and it won’t just be solved by scheming. Baltimore gave up 4.5 YPC in 2023, the ninth highest average in the NFL. Their 109.4 YPG average ranked 19th highest, so just above average for the league. They gave up 121 rushing yards at 6.7 YPC against San Francisco and gave up 128 rushing yards against the Rams.
Whoever they draft, there’s enough quality here to believe we’ll be satisfied with their draft class for a third year in a row.
The five men I admire most (in no particular order):
1. JFK
2. Rob Staton
3. Ganghi
4. my father
5. MLK
“The 3 men I admire most, the Father, Son and The Holy Ghost”.
(if you get that reference, you’re old……)
My, my!
They caught the last train for the coast…
👍
The day the music died..
Where’s my pink carnation, my pickup truck?
“Maybe Vader someday later, now he’s just a small fry. He left his home and kissed his mommy goodbye.”
Sayin’ soon I’m gonna be a Jedi
that’s a fantastic song, Weird Al has some all time great songs, that one and Word Crimes are both in a league of their own.
👍
Drivin the Chevy to the levy..
Whiskey and rye
I don’t think people realize how many of noted offensive wizard Ben Johnson’s offensive plays are pre-determined reads to make Jared Goff look like an actual NFL quarterback.
I don’t want this. I want Brooks to stay where he is. Keep the value there instead of doing the Pete Carroll jerk-a-position game. Brooks was not good at MLB.
If Macdonald/Durde can get him good in one offseason I will happily eat my words.
But let him do what Queen did. Fly around and make tackles, create terror as a blitzer and react, not think.
I am very whelmed with the thought of Brooks coming back. I haven’t seen enough from him to beleive he could be anything than an average linebacker, at best. I feel the same with Fant.
What I would say is — I bet Ravens fans would’ve said the same a year ago about Queen
Psh, I doubt Fant would make even an average linebacker!
Yeah, but Bobo can do it all. Punt, kick, edge rush . . . What’d’ya need?
Bobo, Bobo, he’s our man! . . .
Time for the twitch to QB? I hear Bobo’s cannon makes Penix’s look like a wet noodle in a monsoon ten leagues underwater.
This franchise needs a clean break from the Carrol years. I hope you’re right about ridding the team from players like Adams and diggs. Even Wagner lockett and Geno should be let go regardless of how much those three are appreciated by the fan base.
100% except for Lockett. I’d like to hold onto him and see if some desperate team will overpay just before the trade deadline. A team one decent receiver away from nirvana. The Chiefs maybe? Or a team ready for a deep run whose star WR goes down.
I would bet a significant amount that Lockett isn’t getting traded. And not only for the salary reasons.
Hey there Rob, LOVEEE your content, amazing article just want to say that ngl I will be so sad if they draft Michael Penix, there’s nothing about him that I like. Don’t hate me guys, I just don’t like it, I’d rather Spencer Rattler in the 2nd round or 3rd ( I don’t think he will be available but who knows ) or even Michael Pratt ( He could be available in the 3rd round )
1st round – Fautanu, Fuagua, Verse, Robinson, Newton, Murphy, Latu …. But no Penix 🤮🤮🤮
Drafting a 23/24 years old QB with multiples injuries record who we all saw was BAD against the best good college defense ( NFL defense will be worst ) to sit behind Drew Lock … No thanks
Drew lock is a downgrade …. Geno is better so I would say that we should wait and not draft a QB because we need yes or yes a QB, wait this year and next year draft a QB ( yes I know we don’t know who will declare and all that ) but I could see that Ewers is MUCHHHH BETTER than Penix we’re hearing about McCarthy that he is a 1st round pick ( I don’t see it but ….) Well ….. Penix isn’t a 1st round pick either, Seahawks fan talk about him cuz he was the Huskies QB
Drew Lock is a downgrade. But how much of a downgrade when you compare say a $4-6m cap hit vs Geno’s $31.2m cap hit? And being free of $33m in cap in 2025? While getting a pick in return?
The case for moving on from Geno is as at least as strong as the case for keeping him.
Yes I agree with that, I was only referring to the football level
“Drew Lock is a downgrade. But how much of a downgrade when you compare say a $4-6m cap hit vs Geno’s $31.2m cap hit?”
This is an erroneous comparison, I really don’t get why we keep making this comparison it undermines the argument. Its a $4-6m cap hit v a 14 million cap hit, a minimum of 17 million goes against the cap regardless of what happens to Geno.
And $33.7m comes off the books for 2025
So not that erroneous is it?
The advantage of trading Geno now is not paying his base + roster bonus this year and being completely free of him as a cap hit next year, because of course you are eating the dead cap from his signing bonus now.
If you cut or trade him next offseason, you are extending some of that dead cap hit into 2025, but the only additional money you are committing to is the 2024 money (base + roster bonus). I do think it is a bit misleading / confusing to say the alternative to trading him is his 31m cap hit this year plus his 33.7m cap hit in 2025. You can still move him in 12 months and you have an 8.7m 2025 dead cap hit (which you are already paying – it is just getting pushed out a year).
The $33.7 M is also an exaggeration. Because, if you cut him before next year, you will still save $25M. So, the options are-
Trade him now – save $14M this year, $33M next year ~ $47M total
Cut/Trade him next year – save $25M next year
So, the difference is actually $22M.
It isn’t an exaggeration though line_hawk. You literally wipe $33.7m off the 2025 books this year. That’s money you can use now, on contracts for players like Leonard Williams, as you structure his contract and cap hit’s (or anyone else’s). You can’t do that if Geno is still contracted because the money will be accounted for.
And if you cut him next year, you then take on dead cap-money. You don’t have any 2025 dead money if you move on now.
Even within your numbers, there’s a very clear financial benefit for moving on now if the team prefers to do that.
Yes, agreed there are cap advantages to trading him now; whether its freeing up future money to sign others or creating new $ for this year.
I don’t care about whether Geno stays or goes but if they are indeed starting Lock, I would rather just tank the year, get rid of expensive contracts and not spend money on short term rentals. Kind of what the 49ers did in the first couple of years of KS. JS still keeps saying they will be competitive this year but not sure how and why they would do that in that case.
I don’t think we need to frame it this way though. They can make a turn, build towards the future and that can mean multiple things in terms of win/loss record next year. JS is just going to say what he has to in an interview
And Drew Lock may not sign for 4-6 million if he’s expected to start. He probably would want 10-15 million to be a starter. 4-6 million is 3 games a year money at QB.
People keep saying this but here’s the reality — someone else has to be willing to offer that money for him to demand a pay increase. He re-signed in Seattle last year with zero fanfare. The idea his salary could double or triple doesn’t cut it for me. I doubt anyone is going to be offering him a.) a big pay increase b.) an opportunity to start. The Seahawks can offer B
The idea I struggle with is another franchise paying Genos bills plus giving us a pick. His FA was ice cold last year, so who would be dumb enough to jump?
After combine, there will be 7 or 8 QBs in this class who are either (a) everybody’s darling, or (b) plausible candidates for a tryout.
Add to this a host of young QBs still around. How many suitors will Jake Browning have, to name one example?
Wrong
I’ve written multiple long-form articles about Penix Jr discussing pro’s and con’s. I’ve been described as a ‘Penix hater’ as a consequence. I’ve watched him live, I’ve consulted with people vastly more experienced than me to discuss him
Nothing about my opinion is based around him being the Huskies QB
There is no way that I could understand the : JS wanted Josh Allen, Mahomes ……….. and now Penix
I don’t know why that’s hard for you
The age concern seems silly, but the injury concern is legit.
What gives me pause, however, is the Michigan game where they finally faced a defense that might give us insight into how he’d perform under NFL pressure and the results weren’t just unimpressive for Penix, they were discouraging for Grubb too.
Grub called several plays that had wide open receivers running downfield. Penix missed them. Grubb did his job if you ask me. Penix flamed out in that game but all QB’s have bad games.
Yes, I was not talking about your opinion, I know people call you Penix hater, I was talking about the fans, sorry fans but I don’t see Penix > Ratler, no way
Both are really hard to project. I could see either being excellent or trash. Wouldn’t take either in the first round.
Mild disagree good sir.
Penix + Grubb. You posit that they will select penix because of that.
It makes sense.
I don’t think Grubb has “that much authority” to pick a QB, maybe Fautanu if we decide to go for him, but I don’t think he has any say in picking the Seahawks’ franchise QB, that will be more JS and MacDonald (and I would say what more JS than MacDonald)
Penix is not “my guy,” but few in this draft we can get are. But I get Penix to Seattle.
I also think an OC who has been looked at by the nfl and wants to be a HC will have very little final say. Input? Sure no doubt.
That’s because of a coaching connection, not simply because ‘he played for the Huskies’
The implication is we’d ignore him if he played for Utah. Not true
I get it. That’s why mild disagree. I understand the Grubb + penix anywhere thought process.
On the one hand it makes a ton of sense to kick things off. On the other hand now I have even bigger worries what Penix is in any other system that isn’t Grubb/ deboer’s the day he leaves.
Sure, but he isn’t talking about Washington in the context of Grubb. He’s implying the only reason anyone is talking about Penix is because he’s local, otherwise we wouldn’t bother. That isn’t true
You wouldn’t bother. The polite we is nice.
You have never played local favorites. In fact I’m a little down on Troy fautanu and truce because you never talk about them.
Trice runs a 4.20 short shuttle at 270lbs so that has my interest. He was very disruptive in college but I wanted to see a bit more power at his size. Fautanu I like but I’m torn because he has a guard body but looks like he fits better at tackle. More I watched I think he’s half a round weaker than Alijah Vera-Tucker who I much preferred
I like your ten points and don’t disagree with any of them but I have a couple of questions.
If they trade down, and Penix has been taken by someone else by the time the Seahawks want to draft him, what is Plan B?
If a trade partner does not materialize do the Seahawks then release him?
Actually, there is some validity, because of not only the injury concerns surrounding Penix, but all the other insights Grubb has on Penix.
It could literally be that JS wanted Penix all along and brought in Grubb to ease Penix’ transition to the NFL.
Grubb could – conceivably – be a signal they intend to draft Penix.
Ewers will most likely go top 5 next year. How will we get him?
Trade up. Folks think I’m nuts but I’m coming around to my own idea that they kick the can on qbs and build the team. This isn’t about keeping Geno. This is about John believing un lock and taking one late. If it works awesome. If it doesn’t….pay the iron price. Though that price might be more the nickel price if it doesn’t work.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for trading up, and I’d have been all in on doing so last year for Stroud/Richardson/Levis. However, there was only one team willing to trade with us (Chicago) and Carolina beat us to it. It’s very likely we won’t have a trade partner, or at least no more likely than we would this year to get Williams/Daniels/Maye. They could very well go 1-2-3. Why won’t we have to same problem next year? And the next year?
It feels that way for sure.
But KC did it and Buffalo.
Right now everyone thinks 6 qbs go in the first. Klatt seems to think this is the ’83 draft all over…but I don’t know. There’s always a lot of time maybe too much from now until draft day.
I just have a hard time believing in “next year” for a position, let alone a player, when there’s so much uncertainty. A million things could happen, but I wouldn’t count or depend on any of them. Yet another year with no plan at the QB position post-Wilson other than kicking the can down the road yet again is appalling to me.
I agree very much with this.
I just don’t know if they’ll feel that way. I think a lot of teams should be taking qbs before us and many won’t.
I would never suggest kick the kick to do it. I’m just running around my head how likely to take one the team is and if there will be one.
There are always those in the media who say that. Williams has to go first to Chicago. After that it’s hard to say but I’m guessing Daniels and May go fast. Beyond that, I’ve no clue. Were I a GM, I’d not pull the trigger on anyone else until well into the second round at the earliest.
Honestly (and I hate saying this), I’m about ready to say just punt on qb’s (or go Pratt or Travis later) and try for next year.
Next year’s guys will have higher floors. Maybe not the same ceiling, but less risk/reward. And not thinking Ewers or Sanders. Leonard, Howard, even Cook. I’d have them higher than most guys this year. No injury concerns, no weird gimmicky offenses, no alpha teams to have to take into account. I’d feel better with one of them than one of the second tier guys this year.
And odds are, Lock won’t be as good. Maybe a better pick next year.
I’m surprised that you and I don’t see this as the vaunted ’83 draft all over.
Oh this year?
I just didn’t think that I’d sour on this class like I have. I think the guys next year are just more fundamentally sound to more or less get by if they don’t reach their ceilings. And they are bulldogs. I watched Howard and Cook drag their teams down the field play after play, that kind of mentality where they aren’t going to be stopped. I don’t get that from anyone in this class other than Rattler.
This year is just too boom or bust. I can’t see them getting by if they aren’t hitting on everything. I hate saying it because last year was so hard to watch with a quarterback on the field that I knew wasn’t going to be good enough.
Nobody knows whether Drew Lock is a downgrade.
He is a downgrade. Otherwise he’d have beaten Geno out.
In fairness though, few thought Geno would last as long as he did as a starter and yet he did
Lock has had what, one start? And led a GW drive
How though? He wasn’t exactly afforded an opportunity., was he? That was no one’s idea of a real “competition”, except for Pete Carroll’s.
Wasn’t he? He hasn’t beaten anyone out since he’s been drafted. If you think Pete was just going to start Geno no matter what, then what are we going to say about Russ? And are we thinking that the Broncos had a vendetta against him and that’s why he didn’t play well?
He’s 27. Couldn’t beat out the guy in front of him, too much trust in his arm. Could he get better? Yes (even though he is closer to all that he can be now). Is he a legitimate long-term solution? No. No matter what, it’s another retread from another team. They need to find their own guy.
And I want him to be the starter. If he is, then Geno is gone and we have more cap to work with.
In the end, Lock, Geno, “random veteran signed,” it doesn’t matter. They are place holders for someone that will have (hopefully) have upside to be good enough to be a long-term solution.
I think Bobby will be back, I like MP, I have doubts about Leonard Williams
Do you remember when he came back? Remember Sherman’s podcast insinuating that JS put up obstacles? Bobby is Pete’s man and I don’t want to say that he isn’t JS’s, I see it as JS always wanted to improve the squad and Pete was too emotional, like that person who doesn’t want to “hurt” others (let’s say he decided to be friends first to be the HC), Pete’s red flags have been mentioned and many have looked elsewhere, KJ said that Pete had lost the locker room and I think WE ALL WITNESSED that when they smoked in the last game. I don’t think Bobby will be back, it’s time to move on guys, if Lockett is cut it will be painful, he is one of the best players, but that’s sport.
I’m concerned about Leonard Williams too
Rob If we don’t sign Leonard Williams, will we have compensatory picks next year?
Probably not
They’d have to be inactive
If we hang back and wait for the value free agents, there’s a good chance we’ll be inactive in the part where one has to worry about losing compensatory picks. That’s what I’m hoping for.
You’d have to wait a long time for that to happen though, if you sign second and third wave value players you’ll still lose comp picks
Adama Nathan made a good point in the pod.
I prefer to keep Willians but the new era may not feel inclined to.
I think they’ll be extremely keen to keep him personally
I meant more his position that if they did let him go there would be sort of a mechanism that made sense.
I think he’s also right in that what coach would not want Williams.
I’ve also been doing mocks with penix and another qb at 16 and taking it as Williams is the second round choice to see how that pencils out.
I think it’s plausible that’s how they could view things
Especially with two thirds
At least if there’s a QB they feel ‘they have to have’ at #16
We’re draft news and want the picks but if you write it down it’s not bad at all:
16. Penix
Rnd 2 Williams
Rnd 3 Mustapha
Rnd 3 Zinter
Rnd 4 eboigbe
Watson maybe in the fifth? A TE?
I have a hard time picturing our wunderkind coach (and his good defensive staff) reviewing the film on their defense and deciding that they need a one year older Bobby back. He wants versatile players that leave the offense guessing at what is coming. Bobby has become one dimensional with age. He’s the opposite of versatile, he should really only be used in very specific ways.
I really think Pete saw all the communication issues in 2022 after Bobby left and decided he needed him back to improve the defensive issues. Bobby came back in 2023 and all the issues remained (because it was a coaching issue as much as anything). 2023 Bobby feels like a true Pete call to me.
Agree 100%!!!!! Give me Verse or Chop any day over Penix. He’s so old. Love love love that arm. Hate his flaws. Sadly, he feels inevitable though. Seahawks need to stick to BPA though on their board. Penix is NOT that. Maybe if they can trade down, but still wouldn’t take him in the first.
Of all these predictions, I expect Wagner not being back is the most likely of all. He’s lost a step and Mike Mac has seen that on film already.
My opinion is that 2nd most likely is a trade down to get a 2nd.
Logic in all of these Rob though I’m guessing not all of them come to be. If they do, get yourself some lotto tix post draft and do so quickly.
Love this post — thank you so much!
What do you think of sticking at #16 and taking Penix? I just wonder if they’d be too worried of another team sniping him if they drop back in the mid 20s.
Stealers. At 20 seems like a real interesting fit.
I keep reading reports, and have heard on the radio that the Steelers are sticking with Pickett. I have no idea if that is true, but if they are set on Pickett and Rudolph, I would think they aren’t interested in Geno. Personally, I think they’d be nuts to keep either of those two over Geno.
I think they’d be nuts to pass over Geno. But I also think if Penix is sitting there at 20 that’d be a mistake.
A different mistake, but yeah, i agree. Penix definite to go to the right team.
That’s a pretty adamant no. If it’s Penix at 16 or no qb, then I can wait.
If JS has a type at QB, and if Brady Henderson is right about Anthony Richardson fitting that profile – one that includes Mahomes, RW, Allen, et al – it’s obvious that each of those guys has a big arm and they can run. Penix has a big arm, but lacks any threat to take off with the ball. I wonder if the arm makes up for the lack of movement. I also wonder if Penix will be there in R2. I appreciate that JS also liked Andy Dalton, but Dalton was arguably the second-best QB out of that draft and the Seahawks NEEDED a Qb in 2011. It wasn’t an awful eval.
I want Sweat. I think he makes everybody better – either double him or bad things happen. He’s Jalen Carter-ish without the baggage.
Good stuff, Rob.
Penix has the athleticism to be a runner, but either the offense didn’t call for it, or his injury history has led everyone to tell him not to make running a habit.
That’s a big chasm to cross:
Athleticism to do it
Vs.
Doing it
In his second season at Indiana he almost looks like it’s an option. That’s it.
Sweat’s ceiling is insane
The problem will be controlling his weight, keeping the fire burning and turning him into a consistent high producer rather than an athlete who finds life isn’t as easy in the NFL
Looks like Sweat didn’t weigh in at the senior bowl. He’s got to at the combine doesn’t he? Or I’ll assume he’s in the 380-400 lbs range.
I had him at 362lb
Does MM prefer the 3-4 or 4-3 as the base defensive scheme? Is Sweat invaluable in the inside of either formation? If so, he might be exactly what the D-line has been looking for!
Chuck Arnold on 93.3 KJR
Macdonald: “Massively impressed from the beginning. He’s real. Great fit. Definitely and add to the organization.”
Who makes decisions? “John new title. Complete alignment with staff though. Collaborative effort.”
Ring of Honor in 2024? “Not having convo about next year. Starting convos today about 2025, our 50th anniversary. How do we make that the greatest celebration? That’s our focus right now. Start rolling some stuff out end of this 2024 season.”
Grass at Lumen / World Cup 2026? “Six matches in Seattle. Only 1 of 2 guaranteed to get USMNT. Right now, I don’t think we’re (seahawks) going to play on grass. Seahawks, Reign, etc ton of use. At this point grass not an option for us. Lumen has greatest turfs in league. In great shape.”
Pete Carroll role with Seahawks? “Still an advisor to us. What that means we’re still trying to iron that out. New coach, new staff. Give it time, what’s right for that advisor role. Pete’s special to organization. What his role is, we still gotta iron that out.”
Want to see PC in the building? “Of course we do. Part of our community.”
Throwbacks? “Last year was awesome. Launch and campaign. Got to wear on the road too. We are going to wear them next year. (how many games?) We don’t know. Get alternate jersey for 3 games. As an org determine when best. Last year throwback most successful launch in NFL history.”
Full time throwbacks? Discuss? “We haven’t had that discussion. They are great, agree with you.”
International Games? “Still a priority in the NFL. Not a home team next year. When schedule comes out in May, it could be one of our road games. Don’t know yet. We love going international. We’re popular overseas.”
New Lumen experiences? “A couple things new. Original video boards be redone. Whole new sound system to building. Rock that place differently. South end of club level build entirely new lounge. Wings of video board, new semi-private suite concept. 4-6 seat blocks, common area food & beverages. Great view.”
Hope the throwbacks are more than two games. Such a great look
Would be the ideal time frankly to just go to them full time at the start of a new era
They won’t be. He said the Action Green are still in play.
Would be fun to see the 50th year be the throwbacks in 2025.
Also 6 weeks in and we still don’t know what Pete Carroll’s advisor role is. Golly gee.
They’ll be saying the same about Pete in December
They know it’s not a real role. He was fired and they’re trying to dance around that
I know. Just fun to see them squirm a little.
It’s a way of saying, “We need him to find another coaching job so the clause in his contract kicks in, and then we won’t have to pay him.”
That’s my take.
I fully expect them to roll out new uni’s, but it will likely take 2-3 years. Holmgren era got new uniforms four years into his tenure, then Pete in his third year. I hope it’s very close to the throwbacks.
Throwback unis should be the regular unis. And I like our current ones, but the throwbacks are just killer and everything I loved about the original.
I’d like to see an alternate modernized throwback uni. Same color scheme, maybe the modernized logo, maybe silver helmets instead of grey.
There must be an NFL ban on helmets of a certain reflectivity level. You never see helmets like the Huskies have, where you can just about see the reflection of the stadium in them…or even reflective at all.
They changed from the originals to the ‘blah cloudy sky rainy blue’ unis in 2002.
They changed to the current kits in 2012.
They’re overdue for a change.
I’m not one to gloat, but I will be very happy should they trade Geno. Not just to recoup a decent draft pick and unload current and future cap hits, but because of many people’s bad attitudes towards this train of thought.
They’re the same people who made demeaning comments about us for insinuating the Hawks would trade Russ, or move on from Pete. For some reason a lot of them have latched on to the idea that since Geno has his base salary now guaranteed, they won’t move him. They believe trading him isn’t an option because it will mean the Hawks are OK with regressing. As if retaining Geno guarantees more victories.
They just don’t see the big picture. They don’t realize that hiring MacDonald wasn’t about winning it all this year, or even next year.
It was about setting up a foundation to build upon for years to come. Schneider isn’t an idiot. He knows the team has limitations. That’s why he stated they expect to compete, but that it won’t be easy.
I’m in agreement with the rest of your predictions, also, Rob. They are practical and designed to build something, and not meant as desperation fixes that we’ve been accustomed to for so long.
There’s a player mentioned in this article that I rewatched yesterday and today
And I’ve bumped him up a full round
And I’m REALLY excited for his potential in the NFL
I’ll include details in an article this week
Can’t wait for the article on oladapo…I kid….but maybe I’m not
I would imagine Austin Booker would intrigue Mac with his length at edge.
Chad Reuter at NFL.com, mocks him at 52 to the Rams
Get this man in the team!
I wonder if it is McMahon…cause I’ve been warming to him.
The legend of TJ Tampa grows!
Oh wait, he’s not on the Horizontal Board yet.
I’ll guess Edgerrin Cooper. Love that guys tape. He looks like LB1 to me.
On Cooper: I love the way he stays clean at the second level. Never lets himself get engaged with blockers. He’s got the length to keep them away and can diagnose plays well, then fly to the ball. Watching him spy and then shoot through the line to get at the QB/RB is awesome.
He looks like a solid coverage ILB and has some rushing chops too. He looks bigger than Payton Wilson to me even though I see them listed at the same weight. Awesome athlete w/o the injury history of Wilson.
I’m curious about designating both Jamal and Lockett as post-June 1st cuts. Doesn’t that push a ton of dead cap into 2025? Do they need to be that aggressive getting money for this year? Or with rollover does it not really matter when they take those nasty dead money hits?
There’s about $40m of dead money between Adams and Lockett. A post-June1 means they take $20m this year and $20m next year.
So they gain cap room June2.
Now, they can choose to spend that in 2024, or roll it over to 2025. If they roll it over, that helps mitigate the $20m the following year.
The challenge is, they would need at least one and probably several other moves to pick up cap before June 2. They need to get under the cap in March, and if they want to bring Leonard Williams back, they need to have more than just ‘we’re under the cap’ money.
Thanks Cha.
The Seahawks trade Geno Smith after the combine
This to me is set in stone. I suspect they already have a team they are in talks with, and as the draft draws nearer a move will be made. This to me is a test of Schneider as a salesman and trade maker.
2. The Seahawks re-sign Drew Lock and add another veteran
100% that Lock will be back. I think they might go a different direction if FA – Tannehill or Wentz. I have a nagging feeling they may trade a late round pick for QB instead – although draft assets are at a premium.
3. The Seahawks will trade down in the draft
This is almost as certain as #1. Unless something weird happens (Chop, Daniels, etc…), I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple more aggressive moves were made to consolidate 7 picks in the 2-4 round range, and maybe 2 in 5-7.
4. The Seahawks will draft a quarterback between picks #25-65
I go back and forth on this one, and a big part of that is that opinions are so sharply divided on the QBs this year. I don’t think this team will reach for a QB, if the round fit isn’t, they aren’t going to reach for a QB. Which brings us to….
5. The Seahawks will draft Michael Penix Jr
In another site I recently posted my personal odds for QB to be taken by the Seahawks (and the round the QB would be taken) Penix is my odds on favorite for R2/R3.
I really like Penix, and so I kind of don’t want my team to draft him.
He does make the most sense. His arm is special, but his leadership is exceptional. Penix puts the general in field general. If you want a culture setter he is your guy, unquestioned leader day 1.
Skill set wise, Penix reminds me of Levis. His weaknesses are field vision and decision making against max coverage. The Seahawks passed on Levis twice, and we don’t know why.
Grubb has been in college for all of these prospects, both his old bosses were involved in either coaching or recruiting several of these prospects.
6. The Seahawks will part with several big-name players
Yup. Prez, Diggs, Dissly, Bellore – all likely gone. Geno gone. I’m curios about the Lockett move.
Again, elsewhere, I chimed in with what a DK trade would take if I was Schneider, the answer was met with resistance, but I’d start with the Brown trade to Philly (largely viewed as a theft by Philly) as the floor. No team likely offers up what DK is worth.
7. The Seahawks retain three key players
This is a departure for me.
L/W is a priority, and I think that deal gets announced 3/18(per), just before the combine or at it.
Brooks to me will be too costly to retain, but if the market isn’t there I’d welcome him back at a reasonable price. Even if there are other FA LB I prefer.
Fant is another one where I think the cost might be prohibitive.
8. Bobby Wagner won’t be back
Please, let this be true. Not getting killed with BWagz trying to cover a WR on crossing route is on my goal list for next year.
9. Free agency will be about value
This seems right, and it is a good year for value, guard, LB and Safety all have good depth and value options. Zeitler or Dotson would be a nice addition, but I really want see an investment in OLine, it is critical for what Grubb has run prior.
I’d love to see Dodson stolen from the Bills, but some things are just wishes. Kenneth Murray is one to watch in a prove it deal.
The safety market is flooded: Winfield, McKinney, Whitehead, Elliott, Savage…. It is almost virtually assured that there will be an opportunity to add an affordable difference maker here.
10. The Seahawks will come out of the draft with high grades again
I think this is right.
After some move downs, and some pick accumulation, by letting the board come to them the Seahawks are in good shape to add several high upside difference makers.
Sam Adams was one of my favorite Seahawks of all time, Sweat reminds me of Adams. But there are a lot of other players that are just so intriguing.
It feels like there will be early runs on WR and Tackle, which almost plays right into the Seahawk’s hands. Two players that have been intriguing me are Darius Robinson and Gabe Hall (in particular).
What I’m very curious about, is with as loaded as the WR pool is, will the Seahawks eventually be compelled to pull the trigger on the BPA. And please let it be Corley who is inexplicably available.
Yikes. Serves me right for trying to copy and paste from a notes doc. Disregard all.
It happens.
I had a post in the last article where I wrote down my thoughts in Word that didn’t format right. I’m sure nobody read it because right after that Rob posted a new article.
No I read it. It was a great chunk of info.
Traps, intrigued, seriously I enjoyed quite a bit.
I saw a thumbnail while watching the video on YouTube for another video posing the question of whether or not to trade Alvin Karmara and Marcus Lattimore for draft picks.
I read it just now and found it interesting as well. Their (Saints) cap is truly something else.
$83M over the cap with the best way to create space being to restructure/extend guys that are past their prime. In doing so they can kick some of that into next year, where they are… checks notes… $40M over the cap with 43 players signed.
To be borrowing on the credit card for so long and never getting close to a title, I would be calling for Mickey Loomis’ job. 23 years in the role, making things worse by the year, No 3rd or 4th round picks this year, up to his ears in debt and a roster w/o much talent.
I read it. I’m a little torn on draft grades. While a nice to have….I don’t know our team is still pretty clunky.
I’m less torn by the penix thing. I’ve come to terms with that this is going to take multiple shots. I see Penix’s lack of real world, actually factually numerical based forward motion with his legs a massive problem. And….I think they are going to draft him.
And I think parts of it will be very cool. And parts where he’s not playing behind the best oline in the nation will be very uncool.
I am all in on the Seahawks drafting Penix.
Penix has a rare quality, nobody outside of Caleb Williams and Jayden Williams possess.
Truth be told… Drake Maye’s accuracy is so inconsistent it’s frustrating as hell. He’ll just straight throw a ball out of bounds when a guy has beat his man down the sideline for a potential touchdown.
JJ McCarthy has never had the look of “the best player on the field” and his arm will be bottom 10 in the league the minute he steps in to a starting spot.
Jayden Daniels has elite top 5 running ability but I truly worry about his frame. He is lighter and takes bigger hits than Lamar Jackson. And do you really want a slightly better passing Lamar Jackson with slightly worse running? Look I know he’s a 2 time MVP but the dude can not bring his team back from a deficit in the playoffs.
Caleb Williams I see as a rare, special talent. Amazing arm talent. Incredible creativity. He’s legit 1 of 1.
Penix has a rare and special trait. One you can build upon. His deep ball is rare. He is my QB2 and i’d take him at 16 without hesitation as long as his medicals hold up. If you can trade down with Detroit which is desperate for a top CB and pick up a 2nd and 3rd, than that’s great. But if not… i’m taking Penix over almost anybody. I see Jared Verse and Byron Murphy as “viable” stick and pick candidates.
I want special. Penix has special in his game. I’m willing to risk the 16th pick on someone that “might bust” over someone like JJ McCarthy who will most likely never be great.
Ok cool, now let’s talk about his flaws…
I’ll be so upset if they take Penix at 16!
Cool speculation l! A lot of it is something I’d like to see happen.
About point 1, I’m not sure that’s the right way to read the media. With Russell Wilson, he always gave ‘up in the air’ -answers about his future before. But after 2021 season, he started saying in definite terms he will play in Seattle, which of course, he didn’t.
So I don’t put any weight on what the FO says about Geno’s future. This is not to say your point is wrong, surely the trade could happen.
Well, they kept saying they had ‘no intention’ to trade Wilson. Which was pointed out as a massive tell at the time and so it proved. Meanwhile the national media kept steering us to the possibility of a trade. So not sure I agree here
They consistently talk about Lock, also. Every single person involved with personnel and the QB position group mentions him. The guy isn’t even under contract.
That speaks volumes to me.
After the Geno restructure, I’d say I got this one right.
It’s easier for a team to trade for him now. Less money up front they have to pay.
We don’t know why they did it. No one does. Nothing has changed. He could be kept or traded still.
Not really sure how this constitutes you being right, Twilight
One more name of 1000s that must be included. Vince Lombardi:
The Super Bowl Trophy is named after Vince Lombardi
I am sure no one on this board knows this. But Vince Lombardi attended daily Mass. Every day of the year. The Super Bowl Trophy is named after a man that attended Daily Mass.
John Schneider attended Mass before the 2012 NFL draft.
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/mar/31/schneider-has-given-the-seahawks-more-than-a/
“RENTON, Wash. – The morning of the first NFL draft that truly belonged to him, Seahawks general manager John Schneider went to mass, hoping for a little divine intervention before he went looking for the first new pieces for his broken-down ballclub.
After that mass, he asked the priest to offer a special prayer for draft night.”
Comment: Seahawks are most fortunate to have John Schneider as their GM.
Both Vince Lombardi and John Schneider deserve to be on my top five list.
Why do Catholics always take a Higgs-Boson with them to Church?
Because without it, you can’t have any mass.
I am sure no one on this board knows this. But Vince Lombardi attended daily Mass. Every day of the year.
Quoted my own response accidentally. Sheesh!
If it is Penix in R2…we better get a RT in R1 or FA.
What if Abe Lucas is OK to return?
That’s one of my biggest rooting points for the offseason, to get Lucas back healthy.
Btw, does anybody knows if fitness and conditioning coach Ivan Lewis is gone with the old regime, or not? dude was pretty controversial.
Even if he starts the year healthy. If he goes down at any point everyone will say – we should have seen this coming… chronic knee injury, missed a ton last year, had to get a 42 year-old Peters off of his couch, etc.
JPJ at 16!!! That’s my dude! So many different routes that Seattle could go for OLine though.
Just in case. If he does, the new guy can be RG/backup. Depth.
Great read. Thanks Rob. You really do spoil us.
There is a point that I disagree on in regards to Penix….”as long as any combine medical checks are clear”
I think if the med checks are clear Penix goes too high for the Seahawks to draft him. If the medical check are mixed or bad then the Seahawks have a better chance to draft Penix.
If the Seahawks do draft Penix I think they should hang on to Lockett-at least until the trade deadline. Lockett would make it much easier for Penix.
Long time reader first time poster, I agree, reading your blog is such a treat Rob. Cheers!
Two things to consider.
If the medical aren’t great Seattle should not touch him and/ or he will fall like a brick. Gleaning info on him from non hawks draft sites it’s the medicals, the lack of scrambling, and the system almost in order that makes teams hesitant.
The second thing. I’m not sold penix goes in the first round as is. Sometimes I think 6 qbs first round and can see 8-9 teams before us that should pick one. Then I watch a well reasoned draft and remember there are teams that won’t pick a qb because they themselves know it’s a horrible spot like NE for a new qb.
So I start to see the flow and yeah its more like three qbs go in the first round like every year.
This is the off-season quagmire with the only football is speculation, fear, hope, anticipation, worry, and confusion. Kind of like if you go to a banquet and the goodies are spread out in splendor, and more dishes are coming out of the kitchen, the aromas are intoxicating, and your mouth is salivating, and the emcee says “before we dine, we will hear a few words from our board and make some awards!”. And they drone on and on and…you get the picture.
It is a love-hate relationship I have with NFL and the draft. The fun is divided, with the speculations and mock drafts, and trying to find your guys is a gas, but when the games begin: Time to eat!
I find myself more preoccupied at the moment with subtractions rather than additions (i.e. cha’s “aggressive approach”).
Mone and Bellore are givens. Adams, Diggs, Lockett and Geno are next. In the context of what’s happening, I prefer the lesser-known upside of Lock plus payroll savings and youth over Geno any day.
I’m torn on Dissly because I think he could thrive if used better, but I’m okay if he’s gone and they add back Parkinson and/or Fant. Parkinson’s potential still feels untapped.
After that, let JS, MM & Co. fill out the roster with some extra money to spend. Look for some unpolished gems in the 2nd wave of free agency. Unearth a couple UDFA gems in April.
Also, get guys like Kobe Bryant, Jerrick Reed and Jonathan Sutherland coached up and onto the field. I’m very curious to see what a healthy, beefed up Mike Morris can do.
Looking at this QB class, there are a lot of options. But none of them you can look at where you’re like “wow.” You look at Mahomes, Stroud, and Burrow, you could tell those guys had the IT factor coming out of college. It doesn’t look like any of these guys have it. The closest that could possibly have it, I would say Jayden Daniels who isn’t within our reach.
Rob, would you be ok if they drafted Penix in the bottom of the 1st?
If Penix didn’t have a lengthy injury history already, wasn’t reckless with some his throws, and showed a little more mobility especially when it’s necessary, he would definitely be considered a top 5 pick.
But I wonder if it’s injuries contribute to why he doesn’t scramble often.
I don’t know, there are some wow moments from this QB class IMO
I’m inclined to think that was the old administration’s thinking.
The way they handled the cap last year was extremely aggressive. Pushing out $20m on Diggs, Lockett and Adams. Spending a 2 to get Leonard Williams on an affordable contract etc
Agreed. Sounds like Pete not wanting to hurt Geno’s feelings.
I still can’t believe they held off announcing the starter that week until the very last minute.
Some people hailed that as tactical – but Pete was trying to find every which way to start Geno and not Drew.
Spending that 2 on Williams as a rent-a-player and not even for a full season, ugh, what a terrible move. Reeked of desperation by Pete.
I sure hope that trade was on Pete, and not JS.
At the time it felt short-sighted at best and irresponsible at the worst.
Still does
Falling in the category of “interesting advanced QB stats”, here’s a review of the top 7 QB’s in terms of throwing when seeing the NFL’s currently most prominent defensive coverage:
2-high
https://x.com/PFF_Jackson/status/1759646233260663159?s=20
Rattler not showing well in those metrics, unfortunately.
(or fortunately, if it means we have a shot at him later in the draft)
Thank you for sharing. That was fantastic!
https://twitter.com/JimNagy_SB/status/1703083492647617021
Kid out of Yale has great length with over 36″ arms and is very athletic, heard some good reviews from the senior bowl. Would be great if we could get him on day 3. Combine starts in another week or so, wish they changed their times so almost all the participants would do all the tests. JS is going to take on part of Geno’s salary in a trade so we can recoup that 2nd. Once again a fantastic article Rob.
Lots of videos of T’Vondre Sweat on Jim’s page. Saw that in person.
But is he 400 lbs.?
362lb
Saw a mock where Arizona ended up with MHJ and Jared Verse and the Rams got Chop Robinson. Safe to say I would be quite unhappy with that outcome.
Great job as always, Rob.
I think what bothers me most about discourse on places like Reddit etc. is that so many people are not even willing to consider that certain scenarios other than their own preferred ones are even a possibility.
Why does some people wanting the team to keep Geno Smith preclude them from trying to understand the logic behind other scenarios that MIGHT possibly happen?
Nobody knows what’s going to happen. If anything, reading as many scenarios as possible and understanding the reasoning behind each one makes for a happier fan. Even if you don’t agree with the ultimate decision, at the end of the day, at least you can understand why. Isn’t that all we can do anyway?
I don’t understand people who think drafting a JAG at qb to sit behind Geno is a maybe move but drafting a first round qb is a stupid move when checks notes: chiefs, greenbay did just that and it seemed to work out.
Could someone hold this mirror while I confirm my priors?
With the Hawk’s management letting Geno Smith receive some money they didn’t have to pay him if they cut him, I think the possibility at least exists that they keep him all the way through his contract (2 more years). There are reasons I think this. One, Smith is a very good QB, maybe not super, super star but still, he’s very good. Two, if they work on building other areas early in the draft (both lines) they could wait to draft a QB mid to late in the draft. Someone like Joe Milton III. Strong arm, very mobile but very raw. What else I like about him is a lot of his flaws are what Smith brings to the game day in and day out. It certainly didn’t hurt Jordan Love the learn behind a good QB for a couple of years. What are your thoughts on Joe Milton III ‘s game Rob?
Jordan Love was a very talented college quarterback with skills to work with.
Milton lost his starting job at two different schools and if he had one more year to stay with at Tennessee, would have lost his job again. He’s is incredibly inaccurate and really doesn’t have any skill other than a great (insanely great) arm. Doesn’t matter if he can’t throw a catchable ball. He’s just not an NFL quarterback. More or less a waste to use a pick on him.
I am not saying Milton is the one the Seahawks should draft, just that I am intrigued. If you watch his tape, he reminds me of an undisciplined Cam Newton. Maybe not there yet, but just his size and style of play. I’m sure there are others in the later rounds that could be developed with 2 years behind a good QB.
I don’t think he is a NFL QB
It takes more than size to warrant a Cam Newton comp
Would rather wait and roll the dice with Cam Ward
Milton is a late day 3 / undrafted player. He has a big arm but does almost nothing else well. He didn’t exactly light the world on fire in an extremely QB-friendly offense. He will also be 24 years old in a few weeks. There’s not really much to get excited about.
So the Seattle media is asking about Pete Carroll’s advisory role. Interesting. The question here are they that dumb or are they still blinded by Pete Carroll or what?
How much longer till they start asking if Bobby is going to be resigned?
Because I don’t buy for 1 minute they’re doing it to watch John squirm. I don’t think there are that smartly calculating.
I like that they’re asking. It’s just keeping them on the hook for their words.
Saying why Pete is really gone would be a classic case of ‘screwing up by telling the truth.’
The age of always having to be right. Sad
Long ago, we had the Age of Reason. Now we have the social media fueled age of Never Wrong.
I think they’re just playing dumb, but that’s only because I’m holding out hope that there aren’t people who are really that dumb.
Rob what are your thoughts on Jer’Zhan Newton? He played with Witherspoon and I feel John might have scouted him now for two seasons. Thoughts trading back in round one and they draft him in the late first?
This is a fun read.
Can’t really argue with any of these predictions. I think the most controversial is them definitely drafting Penix. As I’ve said several times, Penix might not be my choice, but I can see why he would be Schneider’s (and Macdonald’s and Grubb’s). One more thing to consider is Grubb has experience scheming an opposite-handed backup QB, which would make integrating Penix into Seattle’s QB room either as the immediate starter or backing up Lock/Smith.
I’ve noticed in my many runs on the sportskeeda mock sim that after trading down from 16, and particularly when the trade down is farther, the best player available on either side of the LOS is one of McKinley Jackson, T’Vondre Sweat or Byron Murphy. Darius Robinson is also usually available. Of that group, which would you take and why?
I get similar results on the PFN sim and was taking Jackson almost every time. But I’ve started looking at Robinson more lately. I almost never take Sweat or Murphy, but Rob’s recent comments on Sweat make him an interesting choice in that range.
I guess it comes down to if they resign Leonard Williams or not.
Something like this is what I keep coming up with – trade back to get to 8-10 picks total, add a QB somewhere in rounds 2/3, get at least 2 IOL and one that could project to OT, beef up the defense at every level with playmakers, add a WR and a TE.
37. Michael Penix Jr., QB Washington
69. McKinnley Jackson, DT Texas A&M
76. Kiran Amegadjie, OT Yale
99. Jamari Thrash, WR Louisville
105. Jaylan Ford, LB Texas
118. Kitan Oladapo, S Oregon State
128. Theo Johnson, TE Penn State
150. Charles Turner, OC LSU
193. Jalyx Hunt, EDGE Houston Christian
230. Al Blades Jr., CB Duke
2025 LAC 2nd
2025 DAL 5th
I kept getting offers for 2025 so I just ended up with a few 2nd and 3rd rounders for a qb next year.
Still got a bulk for 2024 that I would be more than happy with.
1. If they trade Geno, 2024 is a lost year. Lock (or some other vet bridge QB) or a rookie starting – 6-11. Very much hope this is wrong.
2. Lock hasn’t got what it takes. A player is what he puts on tape, and Lock has “a million dollar arm with a 5 cent head”. The rest of the misfit toys out there as free agents aren’t any better. Except Gardner Minshew. But he’s not better than Geno, so that’s a pointless move. Very much hope this is wrong.
3. If they trade down to get a second and take JPJ, I’m all for it. Center and DT are the two biggest needs for this team. JPJ in the first, Sweat in the second. beginnings of an a+ draft. Kinda with you. Sorta. Mostly.
4. I’d rather see them grab a guy in the third. or trade back up into the second if necessary. But overall, I’m with you that they need to grab a QB.
5. I see the arm talent, can’t question that. I think the whole “we got his Washington OC” thing is WAY overblown. I wouldn’t be mad if they took him, but I’d rather see them grab Rattler. Kinda hope you’re close but not quite right on this one.
6. It’s time to move on from Adams. I would hate to see Quandre go, but I can understand it. Mone and Dissly, ok. Lockett would hurt. Schrödinger’s prediction – you’re both right and wrong. Until the box is opened. Then I hope you continue to be both right and wrong.
7. I just don’t see Williams staying. I think we get outbid. Brooks\Queen\Fant, I don’t really think any of the three matter that much. But I hope you’re right overall.
8. This would suck. Again. But I would understand. Again. Kinda hope this is wrong. But it probably SHOULD be right.
9. The splash guys in FA feel like have been as much miss as hit, so I’m down with value. Hope this is right.
10. Sweat is a hell yeah for me. JPJ is my draft crush. So is Rattler. DK was my last draft crush. But I VERY much hope your prediction is right and we get a great draft.
What do you mean by a ‘lost year’?
Are you saying that if we keep Geno we are SB contenders?
I am saying 6-11.
They could be 6-11 with Geno just as easily as with Drew Lock. They had some lucky bounces tis last season and could have easily gone 5-12 as they could have been 12-5. Don’t forget Lock won his only start. Yes Philly was in a free fall, but they were still a solid team.
Geno Struggled against some pretty bad teams, so is the difference between Lock on a cheap deal allowing the team to add more pieces around him really that different than Geno making 5 times more and not being able to add as many pieces?
Just giving a whole picture rather than this Geno v. Lock straight up.
And yet both seasons with Geno ended up with a winning record.
There is a reason why Lock is so cheap. It’s because he’s not very good. It doesn’t much matter how good your pieces are when your QB is trash.
And three years ago, everyone thought Geno was a busted journeyman QB in his 30’s with no serious future in the league on a cheaper contract than Lock’s last season
That’s ok if it is first year of the Process.
With you on Tyler, it’d hurt tho is likely necessary.
OTOH why would you hate to see Diggs go? His business decisions were a cancer on this team.
That makes two of us! Jackson Powers-Johnson and T’Vondre Sweat in the SAME draft would be incredible. This team needs to beef up the trenches in the worst way. I can’t get the Pittsburgh game out of my head.
JPJ is decent but I fear he has reached overrated status
I’m just not sold on Penix. Maybe I have a bias against lefty’s as I can’t quite put my finger on what exactly has me hesitant about the Seahawks building around him because he has an incredible arm. The putrid completion percentage when scrambling and the overall issues he had against pressure are worrying – I feel like QBs nowadays have to have the ability to scramble and create off-script and I just don’t think Penix has that in him. I could be wrong… but I think I’d rather Seattle trade down in the 1st, try to beef up the IOL or DL in the 1st then take Rattler in the 2nd/3rd. They have to start taking some shots on QBs.
There is much you highlight that I hope comes to pass, including the players named to move on from as well as those to retain. 100% in on Williams.
Wagner to the Commanders does feel like a fit.
But I’m concerned that no one will really want Geno as more than a high-end backup or modest filler in a competition for starter, which could sink any trade offers. If I’m Pittsburgh, NE or the Raiders I’d rather land Russ than trade for Geno.
This is why I was a fan of just cutting him outright before Feb. 16th. I just dont think there is much of a market for Geno. The league doesnt value him as much as the Seahawks do.
I’ve been trying to research the Ravens defense and determine what the base scheme is. Will MM have the Seahawks go back to a 4-3? The only thing that is consistent that I heard is he likes fast players at every position, like lockstep coverage DBs. He uses offense-confusing rushes, like LBs faking blitzes to cover TEs and crossing WRs. But doesn’t everyone?
Logically, this means bye-bye to slower coverage players. We might see more of a purge than what we are expecting.
Hope so
Change is needed
All I know is that he is the polar opposite of Pete’s philosophy. Gone are the days of “here’s a simple look, we’re not disguising it, and we’re not changing anything just for you, but you can’t beat if we execute.” That was fine when we had a defense overflowing with hall of famers but you can see how putrid it’s been the last 5 years when the talent level dropped off. From what I’ve heard, MM wants to sow confusion, disguise looks, mix and match rushers and coverages, and attack opponents’ weaknesses while maximizing the strengths of his players.
The feeling I get is that Macdonald will be building a defense around the players he has. In Baltimore they have been a base 3-4 team for years and have built around that concept and Macdonald continued to do that.
Here in Seattle he has a totally different type of player, especially upfront. At the end of the season the Seahawks had two defensive linemen who weighed over 300 lbs. Jarren Reed at 306 and Cameron Young at 304. The Ravens had 5 including Michael Pierce at 355.
If Maconald really wants to disguise what the defense is doing having guys that can play inside out on the defensive line will be key. Reed being able to play NT or 3-Tech is going to allow Macdonald and Durde to scheme up a number of things. I think the base defense will be more Big Nickel where the you will have three players who will be some what interchangeable, Spoon, Love and perhaps Jerrick Reed or Coby Bryant will be there with Woolen and Brown or Jackson being your outside corners. Spoon can be physical enough against the run to stay in the slot, but will provide the run support needed from that position.
It can be a mix of 3 man fronts and 4 man fronts, based on opponent tendency and the situation.
A buddy of mine just asked me if I were in the Seahawks front office, would I consider a Geno Smith/draft pick for Justin Fields trade?
When I initially thought about it, I thought it was crazy, and as I’ve sat and pondered it for a little bit, Geno Smith played his best football in Shane Waldron‘s scheme. It would take pressure off of needing to start Caleb Williams in week one and give him a little time to develop. I don’t think CHI would want to pay Geno’s money for a backup…
I know that doesn’t help us with a QBoTF, but it’s an interesting thought.
Even if the Seahawks ate Geno’s bonus of $9mil to facilitate a trade, the incentives due to him on top of his base pay are likely a non-starter for the Bears. Why pay $13mil plus any incentives he hits to a backup? Unless they plan to play Geno only 5-6 games to ensure he doesn’t hit those payouts but even so, I don’t think you tell your fans to get hyped about the the prospect of finally having your first franchise QB since Sid Luckman and then throwing Geno out there to start. The fans would riot.
That doesn’t even factor in the Seahawks, who’d need a starting QB, which Fields has shown repeatedly that he is not. He’s a gadget player, at best.
The Bears will draft Caleb and start him immediately
The Seahawks won’t trade for Justin Fields
Take those to the bank
Yes, but can you predict what I am going to bury in my back yard?
Always setting traps?
I know it’s a silly hypothetical. I think he was bored, to be honest when he asked me.
I got it from Jay Mohr’s impersonation of Christopher Walken.
Agreed 100%
Heard Grub’s segment on 710. Not one question about Geno.
This is wandering into levels of absurdity now.
Willful ignorance?
If he’s traded, all of them will say – ‘No One saw this coming!’
I swear the media and fanbase are exactly like the fart huffers in that South Park episode when Kyle moves to San Francisco and everyone gets enjoyment out of sniffing their own farts lol. Seems to accurately portray the mentality in Seattle too.
It’s pretty obvious that there is a “no Geno talk” mandate, coming from The Seahawks PR team, to the on-air folks at 710.
I get that the radio segments aren’t the same as the press conferences… but this seems very conspicuous and, frankly, odd.
Are they not capable of even answering questions in a neutral way, that says stuff without saying stuff?
I mean, that’s kind of standard PR 101, isn’t it?
I heard Brock and Salk discuss Geno. Brock said a trade is on the table prior to March 18th.
I don’t see why people can’t see what’s going on here
There’s no way they’re just ‘forgetting’ to ask about Geno Smith, last year’s starting QB, in these interviews
Of course they are not “forgetting” to ask about Geno smith. Do you think the “No Geno talk” implies they are likely (or certain) to move on from Geno?
I think it’s this. The team is steering the flagship station away from bringing the topic up. That’d be my guess. The Seahawks know if Grubb, Macdonald, Schneider get asked about Geno — all they can do is talk him up or it’s a ‘thing’. And then if they talk him up and trade him for a R4/5 everyone will go crazy. So the flagship is being steered by PR to just avoid the topic.
If people want to call that a wild conspiracy, they can do. It’s a more sound argument IMO than ‘710 simply forgot to ask’.
Couldn’t agree more. The fanbase for the most part is just so oblivious and seem to have a complete and utter inability to read between the lines.
“I am sure no one on this board knows this. But Vince Lombardi attended daily Mass. Every day of the year.
I did know that. A Football Life: Vince Lombardi (2 parts) is a great watch”
Big Mike: Two thumbs up. https://www.pinterest.com/pin/738097826423769213/
Detroit Lions are cutting safety Tracy Walker loose.
He’s 29, a 5-year starter, missed a bunch of games in IR in 2022 but rebounded last year.
The Lion defense was slightly better than the Seahawks’ in 2023 (that is to say, not great at all).
PFF grade in the 60’s, and he had a $12.8m cap hit in 2024.
The Lions have $44m of cap room this year and $159m of cap room in 2025.
They felt they could live without Walker.
Big mistake, Lions, BIG MISTAKE.
Or maybe they’re anticipating signing the best safety in the history of the NFL after he gets cut this offseason?! Possibly even best safety duo getting cut…what better way to spend 44 million.
BRING HIM HOME LIONS
1) Agree
2) Agree
3) Disagree, you have 8 Blue chip players on your horizontal board. The chances are they’ll be more successful in the NFL than others further down. If there’s a chance a QB the team likes or a Blue Chip Edge is falling outside the top 10, trading up seems a more ambitious, proactive step to take.
4) Top QB’s tend to go in the top 15 of an NFL draft. The Wilson’s, Purdie’s of this world are much rarer, than the Allen’s, Mahames, Herberts, etc etc.
5) See my points above. If Penix is good enough he’ll go in the Top 20.
6) Agree
7) Agree, though Patrick Queen was much better when playing alongside a dominent Mike in Raquon Smith. I think Jordyn Brooks could be in the same boat.
8) Agree
9) Agree, the roster is in a position where a steady free agency can really consolidate the depth and starters across all positions. This is why I think an agressive move in the draft for a game dominanting player, is really what this team needs. The team is at #16, still close enough to the top 15, that drafting a blue chipper or top QB is a real possibility.
10) Not sure I agree, if they look to draft quantity. They could end up with steady players, without being dominent. The other 31 teams will also be looking for rough diamonds.
I did a draft such as follows;
#11 Seattle gives the Vikings a 3rd #76 and 2025 2nd round pick. Knowing what they do about JJ McCarthy, they pick their QB of the future with no intention to play him in 2024 or possibly 2025, taking the Smith / Mahomes – Rogers/Love Green Bay approach to developing QBs.
#59 Sending Tariq Woolen and Dre’mont Jones to Housten, the Texans are delighted to receive a Pro Bowl calibre player, with a proven quality D liner onto their roster . Seattle pick Zack Zinter.
#78 Edgerrin Cooper
#118 Dominik Puni – a hedge for Abe Lucas, he can also cover or push to start all other positions on the offensive line
#120 The pick taken from Pittsburgh for Geno Smith – pick WR Luke McCaffrey
#150 Erick All – assuming medicals work out.
#193 Khristian Boyd – pick to perform the Michael Pierce roll in MM defense.
#232 Sione Vaki – could be a top special teams performer, including returning kicks.
Recap;
#11 JJ McCarthy – QB
#59 Zach Zinter – RG
#78 Edgerrin Cooper – Mike LB
#118 Dominik Puni – OL
#120 Luke McCaffery – WR
#150 Erik All – TE
#193 Khristian Boyd – NT
#232 Sione Vaki – ST, S, RB, SWR
I don’t even know where to start with this
Start at the top my man. Trading up for McCarthy and then trading two starters (one on a R5 rookie deal) for a low R2 pick. I don’t see either of those things happening!!
What’s there not to like 😉
😂
Well reasoned predictions. Would be fun to do a follow up to look back on how many you got right when the new season starts.
Since the announcement hire, I find myself most excited to discover what a Macdonald player will look like. How much will he take from the Harbaughs and Ravens org vs how much he’s his own man. Will he innovate his defense even further now that he has full control? What impact will that have on who he/JS signs or drafts?
He’s never had the opportunity to make final decisions and shape his own team, which is why I’m particularly excited and interested to see what happens in #9 of your predictions.
Conventional wisdom would suggest that if he’s an innovative defensive mind that he won’t need to sign star defensive players to big contracts to optimize his system. He should be able to find value in reclamation projects for that side of the ball.
Versatility, athleticism, coverage ability etc. will likely be prioritized. The safeties and ILBs seemed to be what made his system work in Baltimore. Let’s see what he changes when he comes here.
I’ll be updating predictions as we go along to be honest, this is just a guess/conversation starter for now
Rob, what would you consider fair value for Geno in a trade?
I would think a 2nd, anything less than a very high third would be daylight robbery. You’re right though, he’s clearly available.
R4