Month: March 2020 (Page 3 of 4)

Why the Seahawks are meeting with Jordan Reed

A year ago, shortly after the 2019 draft, the Seahawks traded a seventh round pick to New England for Jacob Hollister. The move created very little fanfare at the time. A year on, it probably deserves greater focus.

I think the Seahawks are extremely motivated to incorporate a dynamic move-TE into their offense.

I don’t think the trade for Hollister was just for depth. I think it was a specific plan to add a particular skillset. Someone who can operate as a ‘big slot’ or a mismatch at the second level. A chain mover, big-play creator and a compliment to Seattle’s speed at receiver.

Hollister finished 2019 as Seattle’s third leading target, despite originally failing to make the 53-man roster. Eventually he was re-signed following Will Dissly’s injury and played 11 games.

He was thrust into a more significant and complete role than was perhaps intended. Yet it provided a glimpse into what his type of skillset could offer the offense. He played well and he was a factor.

Jordan Reed has been one of the top move tight ends in the NFL since entering the league in 2013. He was recently cut by the Redskins after a series of concussions limited his playing time.

The fact that they’re meeting with him just weeks after signing Greg Olsen is telling. It suggests that they do in fact want a pass-catching ‘big slot’ tight end on the roster. Greg Olsen and Will Dissly (when healthy) will be your more conventional tight ends. There’s room for another in the Hollister/Reed mould.

It’s also indicative of what the Seahawks are looking for at the position. Two days ago I highlighted Hunter Bryant as a possible draft target for Seattle. A lot of people assume because of his lack of size and only running a 4.74 forty that he won’t be on their radar. It’d be wrong to focus on either of those aspects.

The forty yard dash doesn’t matter at tight end. Throw it out. Forget about it. Look at some of the times run by tight ends in recent history:

Rob Gronkowski — 4.68
Hunter Henry — 4.66
T.J. Hockenson — 4.70
Zach Ertz — 4.76
Travis Kelce — 4.61
Will Dissly — 4.87
Jordan Reed — 4.72

Many of these times are similar to Bryant’s 4.74 — including Reed’s 4.72.

Because we’ve had 10 years to study and research what the Seahawks have generally looked for at every position, it’s easy to see the clear trend when it comes to the agility tests at tight end.

A strong performance in the short shuttle and a sub-7.10 in the three cone is the consistent trend:

Luke Willson — 4.29 (ss), 7.08 (3c)
Will Dissly — 4.40 (ss), 7.07 (3c)
Nick Vannett — 4.20 (ss), 7.05 (3c)
Anthony McCoy — 4.57 (ss), 6.99 (3c)
Zach Miller — 4.42 (ss), 7.01 (3c)
Jimmy Graham — 4.45 (ss), 6.90 (3c)
Greg Olsen — 4.48 (ss), 7.04 (3c)

Hunter Bryant ran a 4.46 short shuttle and a 7.08 three cone.

Now let’s go back to the previous list of TE’s. They all performed well in the three cone and not the forty:

Rob Gronkowski — 7.18
Hunter Henry — 7.16
T.J. Hockenson — 7.02
Zach Ertz — 7.08
Travis Kelce — 7.09
Will Dissly — 7.08
Jordan Reed — DNP

Bryant is right there. His agility testing compares favourably with the top TE’s and the players at the position Seattle has drafted.

And when you watch him on tape the one player you think of is Jordan Reed. Lance Zierlein made that exact comparison in his NFL.com player profile.

Bryant has the character they look for. He’s been working out with Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. I think he will be a target for the Seahawks in this draft.

The signing of Olsen could easily be viewed as insurance for Dissly. After back-to-back seasons were ended by extremely serious injuries, Dissly doesn’t need any pressure to race back into the team. Olsen can be the expected starter and Dissly can contribute, try to stay healthy and earn the ability to be the long term solution as Seattle’s orthodox TE.

On the other side though, I think they want a move TE. By meeting with Reed they’re setting the table. You let the situation play out. If Bryant isn’t available to them in the draft, they could sign Reed as an alternative. Or they could re-sign Hollister. They would have options and they seem to be assessing all of those options now.

It’s also possible they sign a player to fill this role before the draft as a ‘hedge’.

Either way — I’d wager they sign a mobile mismatch tight end at some point. It appears to be an element they want on this offense.

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Wednesday notes: Tom Pelissero’s free agency projections

Before getting into today’s piece, a quick reminder in case you missed some of the articles published over the last few days:

Updated 2020 draft tier list
Why Curtis Weaver deserves more attention
Free agency thoughts and predictions
Thoughts on 20 potential Seahawks videos

Tom Pelissero from the NFL Network has been speaking to NFL executives to get a feel for the start of free agency. His article provides some interesting notes.

Firstly, he believes there’s a chance George Fant will receive at least $10m on the open market. The Seahawks almost certainly won’t stretch to that, so it seems there’s a decent chance he’ll be moving on:

“The market is also expected to be strong for a couple young players who have mostly been reserves: Halapoulivaati Vaitai (Eagles) and George Fant (Seahawks). Both players could command $10 million a year, and maybe more.”

Meanwhile Germain Ifedi is expected to be in the $12m bracket:

“Bryan Bulaga (Packers) is expected to do well for a soon-to-be 31-year-old right tackle with a long injury history, potentially landing in the $10 million to $12 million range. Germain Ifedi (Seahawks) could potentially push toward that same range.”

Increasingly it looks like the Seahawks are going to have to sign a cheap veteran right tackle as a draft hedge. It also looks like one of those first three picks will have to be saved for a right tackle. Luckily, this is a good looking class at the position.

How much will it cost to keep Jarran Reed?

“Jarran Reed (Seahawks), D.J. Reader (Texans), David Onyemata (Saints) and A’Shawn Robinson (Lions) could all land north of $10 million, too.”

I think the Seahawks would be willing to stretch to about $12-13m for Reed. That’s the top of the market for a defensive tackle. They love Reed’s fit in the locker room. If Jadeveon Clowney moves on, they will probably act to keep Reed. They can’t afford to lose both of their best starters on what is already a struggling D-line.

Speaking of Clowney…

“The franchise tag is likely to pick off several names here, including Yannick Ngakoue (Jaguars), Matt Judon (Ravens) and Bud Dupree (Steelers). So, if you don’t break the bank for Jadeveon Clowney, you’re looking at a group of pass rushers who could all land in the $12 million to $15 million range.”

There’s no indication teams will be willing to break the bank for Clowney. It’s more interesting to know that some of the other names are in the $12-15m range though:

“That’d be another huge payday for two veterans: Robert Quinn (Cowboys), who enjoyed a revival last season with 11.5 sacks in Dallas, and Jason Pierre-Paul (Buccaneers), who had 8.5 sacks in 10 games after returning from a fractured neck. Dante Fowler Jr. could land in that same range if the Rams don’t franchise tag him.”

$12-15m for Fowler would be a decent price in the current market. You might be able to fit that type of contract alongside Clowney. There’s also no mention of Everson Griffen, so he could be even cheaper.

Two days ago I mentioned the possibility of finding a value signing at receiver. With such a strong draft class at the position, it could provide opportunities for smart teams. Pelissero backs this up:

“Beyond Amari Cooper, who seems destined to stay with the Cowboys, the only receiver NFL executives expect to really get paid big is the Jets’ Robby Anderson. A generational WR class in the draft figures to depress the market overall, but Anderson still could land a deal in the $12 million to $15 million range.”

Meanwhile the Seahawks are reportedly meeting with recently cut T.J. Carrie. The former Browns nickel corner was popular in Cleveland. He was a John Dorsey addition and didn’t survive the regime change.

Seattle has often sought cheap value at nickel corner. We’ll see if Carrie is available at the kind of price that could solve a need for next season.

There were two significant pro-days today — Oklahoma and Wisconsin. I’ll update the post if results are revealed beyond what I have here.

Wisconsin receiver Quintez Cephus ran a 4.56 after a disappointing 4.73 at the combine. Reportedly Jonathan Taylor looked good during route running drills. There’s an extremely good chance he’ll be a first round pick and he could go a lot earlier than people are currently projecting.

Oklahoma defensive tackle Neville Gallimore continues to baffle. He ran a 4.79 at 304lbs which is great. Yet his agility testing is extremely poor. He ran a 5.10 short shuttle at the combine and while he bettered it to a 4.69 at his pro-day — that’s still a surprisingly poor time given his straight-line speed. He did jump a 30 inch vertical and a 9-3 broad after passing on both tests in Indianapolis. He would be a 2.91 TEF tester.

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Further thoughts on 20 potential Seahawks targets

There’s been a bit of time since the combine and I wanted to spend a bit of time talking about a collection of players who either stood out or could be on Seattle’s radar.

Antoine Winfield Jr (S, Minnesota)
There are reportedly some injury concerns with Winfield but everything else screams high draft pick. He ran a 4.45 and jumped a 36 inch vertical. His field drills were among the best by any prospect in Indianapolis:

He had seven interceptions in 2019. I’m not sure the Seahawks will look for a player like this after acquiring Quandre Diggs. However, they’ve placed a high value on production as we saw when they drafted Tedric Thompson despite his moderate physical profile. He’s a superb player with a great attitude and NFL bloodlines and could easily sneak into the first frame or top-45.

Josh Metellus (S, Michigan)
The safety group ended the combine with a flourish. Metellus looked extremely comfortable in backpedal, transition and locating the football:

He was handpicked by John Harbaugh to be one of Michigan’s 2019 captains. He plays with the kind of attitude and personality Seattle tends to like with great tackling consistency and a fierceness in run support. The Seahawks already have a lot of safeties on their roster so we’ll see how keen they are to add more. Metellus just looks like a dude, he moved well at the combine and could be a day three find.

Nick Harris (C, Washington)
Harris had an excellent field drill performance at the combine. Shaun O’Hara and Joe Thomas loved his workout, in particular his mirror drill:

A lot of people picked up on Harris’ struggles at the Senior Bowl in 1v1 drills. Yet when we spoke to Jim Nagy on the podcast, he noted the test is weighted in favour of the defensive linemen. Harris played well during the game and in scrimmages. He has the attitude Seattle likes, the personality that will fit in their culture. He’s athletic and tenacious. Don’t be surprised if the Seahawks like him a lot more than the media and isolate a part of the draft where they’ll target him.

Shane Lemieux (G, Oregon)
Nothing stood out about Lemieux’s testing. His vertical and broad were unspectacular. His three cone and short shuttle were poor. He has short arms (32 1/4). However — I loved his tape. He’s physical, gets after defensive linemen and really takes it to an opponent. He energised the rest of Oregon’s O-line with some highlight-reel blocks, including hip-tossing an Auburn lineman early in the season opener. During field drills I thought he looked fluid, loose and he moved really well — which was surprising considering his agility testing was so off:

He ticks a lot of boxes for Seattle — leadership, run blocking, intelligence. It’ll just be a case of how much they can look beyond a non-ideal physical profile but he looks like a high value mid-round pick.

Cam Akers (RB, Florida State)
Akers had a ‘wow’ workout at the combine. He just looked so quick and sudden. His feet are incredible. They had a new footwork drill where the players had to step in and out of some pads at speed. Akers looked like he was performing ‘riverdance’:

His change of direction and explosion is obvious. He’s right in Seattle’s wheelhouse at 5-10 and 217lbs plus a 35.5 inch vertical. I think he’s going to go earlier than people recognise. The Seahawks need to add a runner and they probably need a runner like this to compliment Chris Carson. Don’t fall off your chair if they take Akers at the back end of round two.

Hunter Bryant (TE, Washington)
The forty yard dash for tight ends is massively overrated. Here are some times to consider:

Rob Gronkowski — 4.68
Hunter Henry — 4.66
T.J. Hockenson — 4.70
Zach Ertz — 4.76
Travis Kelce — 4.61
Will Dissly — 4.87
Jordan Reed — 4.72

Hunter Bryant ran a 4.74 and a lot of people gave up on him there and then. I hope the NFL feels the same way because he has Jordan Reed level potential as a move tight end. There is one test that consistently correlates with quality tight end play and that’s the three cone. We’ve already identified the time Seattle focuses on. They’ve only added tight ends who run faster than a 7.10. Here’s the list above and their three cone times:

Rob Gronkowski — 7.18
Hunter Henry — 7.16
T.J. Hockenson — 7.02
Zach Ertz — 7.08
Travis Kelce — 7.09
Will Dissly — 7.08
Jordan Reed — DNP

Hunter Bryant ran an excellent 7.08. That’s why he’s capable of being an excellent tight end at the next level. That’s why he’s likely to be on Seattle’s radar. In comparison, Cole Kmet ran a 7.44 three cone. They traded for Jacob Hollister a year ago to try and add a move-TE compliment to join Ed Dickson and Will Dissly. They could target Bryant in round two to pair with Greg Olsen and Dissly in 2020.

Hakeem Adeniji (G, Kansas)
During the Senior Bowl I spoke a few times about how impressive Adeniji looked. Then at the combine he was second only to Tristan Wirfs in TEF, showing to be a truly explosive lineman with major upside. The Seahawks love linemen that have played multiple positions. Adeniji has experience at tackle and guard and he’s taken snaps in practise. He’s been extremely durable in his career, he has 34 inch arms, he’s in terrific shape with minimal bad weight. He’s the type of player you bring in and let him get after it. He could be an option in the third or fourth round.

Kyle Dugger (S, Lenoir-Rhyne)
There was a moment where Dugger threatened to gatecrash the first round. He touted the possibility of a 4.3 forty but only delivered a 4.49. He still jumped a 42 inch vertical and an 11-2 broad.

He’s not the most fluid mover. There’s a little bit of stiffness as he changes direction. Dugger is such an alpha though and he has major special teams value. He could be developed to play linebacker or safety. He’s shown tremendous grit to succeed at a small school and even get to the combine. He’s exactly the type of character they love to bring in. His combine testing, however, suggests he needs some work and adjustment. That could temper his stock, making him a more realistic target later than he was recently being projected.

Willie Gay Jr (LB, Mississippi State)
We’ve been talking about Gay Jr since mid-way through the 2018 season. He flashed so many times when studying Jeffery Simmons and Montez Sweat. His 2019 season was a waste for various reasons that’ll need investigating. When he’s actually on the field though — for me he’s a first round talent:

He’s sensational in coverage, he constantly flies around and makes plays. We know the Seahawks target linebackers who either run a sub-4.1 short shuttle or test through the roof overall. Gay Jr is a 149 SPARQ athlete. If he falls due to the 2019 issues, he could provide a mid-round steal. I sense his stock will rise in draft rooms after the combine though.

Jeremy Chinn (S, Southern Illinois)
A year ago Jim Nagy referred to Marquise Blair as a Seahawks type of player when he was discussing the 2019 Senior Bowl. This year, he compared Chinn to Kam Chancellor in terms of physique. You don’t see Bam Bam on tape at all — but Chinn is 6-3, 221lbs and looks an imposing figure. I thought he moved very well for his size during field drills:

He ran a superb 4.45 and jumped a 41 inch vertical plus an 11-6 broad. Nagy has since suggested he could go in round two. That might be a bit rich for the Seahawks but he’s another guy who just looks the part, has tested like a pro and he’s someone coaches will love to try and develop.

Jonathan Taylor (RB, Wisconsin)
There’s very little to say about Taylor that’s new but I had to bring him up again. He has everything the Seahawks look for in terms of size and explosive testing. He’s a terrific character. He says he wants to play for the Seahawks. I think they’d love to have him — but after running a 4.39 it’s hard to see him getting out of round one.

Jabari Zuniga (DE, Florida)
A year ago we were mocking Zuniga at the end of round one to Seattle. Then he chose to return to Florida rather than declare for the draft. His 2019 season was plagued by an ankle injury. That said — he’s basically the only dynamic EDGE who tested at the combine. He ran a 1.61 10-yard split which is good at 264lbs.

He’s explosive and has baseball mitts for hands. He looks the part of a classic defensive end. Every now and again a good pass rusher lasts into round three and everyone wonders how it happened three or four years down the line. That could be Zuniga in this draft. He didn’t have a great Senior Bowl though.

Jonathan Greenard (DE, Florida)
He was a fun player to watch in 2019. There are concerns about a wrist injury. It was also well reported prior to the combine that he wasn’t going to run a great forty (he ran a 4.87). Even so — he had some really good agility testing at 263lbs with a 7.13 three cone and a 4.34 short shuttle. Seattle places great value in those tests. Greenard’s short shuttle is in the same ballpark as Rasheem Green and Sam Hubbard — two players they seemingly liked in 2018. He also has vines for arms (35 inches) and has outstanding character and tenacity. He’s an alpha. He was the emotional leader for Florida. Depending on how you view the injury he could either be a second rounder or a mid-round option who gives you a really good chance to get a quality contributor at a good price.

Matt Peart (T, Connecticut)
I’ve seen the tape and it’s not great. There’s a lot of things he needs to work on. However, the coaches speak very highly of him during interviews. He has experience at right tackle. He’s 6-7, 318lbs and has nearly 37 inch arms. He ran a great 5.06 forty and he scored a 3.08 in TEF. There are traits to work with here as a day three project. If nothing else, he could be a nice swing-tackle option replacing George Fant if he departs.

Cesar Ruiz (C, Michigan)
I was banging the drum for Ruiz throughout the 2019 season and he delivered a tremendous performance at the combine. He’s perfectly sized to play center with extreme explosive traits (3.25 TEF score). He has the +33 inch arms, he ran a 5.08 forty. He looked highly athletic during field drills:

We know the Seahawks like Michigan players. He lost his father at a young age and has had to battle for a NFL career. I can’t believe he gets out of the top-25 in round one. If he does, just draft him.

Isaiah Wilson (T, Georgia)
To me he just screams prototype Seahawks right tackle. He’s massive (6-6, 350lbs) but none of it is bad weight. He looks like a new Terminator, sent back in time to blow up the left side of a defensive line. He finished second only to Tristan Wirfs in weighted TEF — meaning he’s basically the second best combination of size and traits on the O-line in this draft class.

He dominates in the run game and along with Andrew Thomas, helped create the best pair of blind-side pass protectors in college football. The Seahawks will be lucky if he gets to #27.

Jalen Reagor (WR, TCU)
There are so many receivers we could talk about but I feel like we’ve covered the class a lot. I want to re-focus on Reagor. His 4.47 was slower than expected but it’s still in Seattle’s 4.4-or-faster range. It’s his explosive testing that makes the difference for me. His ability to go up and get the football is so evident on tape and his 42 inch vertical totally matches what you see in games. He’s that downfield, chunk play threat Seattle loves and he could be an option at #27 if he lasts that long.

Curtis Weaver (DE, Boise State)
I’ve already written about Weaver in more detail this week so I won’t go over old ground too much. He might not look like a prototype rusher and certainly his lack of length could be a turn-off for Seattle. However — his short shuttle (4.27) at his size (265lbs) is comparable to some of the top pass rushers in the league and his pressure percentage and pass rush win percentage are among the best in the draft. The Seahawks need pure pass rushers and that’s what Weaver is — albeit in unconventional packaging. I think he’s a possible second or third round pick.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, LSU)
A word of caution — there won’t be a single article between now and April where I don’t take any sniff of an opportunity to write about CEH. Forget the 4.60 forty. He jumped a 39.5 inch vertical and that matters a lot more. He’s a highly explosive, incredibly physical, team-energising runner. The kind Seattle loves in terms of playing style. He’s not their typical type given his lack of size but I can’t remember seeing a more natural route-runner at running back.

The Seahawks need someone who can move the chains and score points. That’s Edwards-Helaire. Whoever gets him will land an absolute gem. For me he’s a top-40 lock but if he lasts beyond that you’re getting a steal.

Raekwon Davis (DT, Alabama)
We’ve talked about Seattle’s long search for their own version of Calais Campbell. It’s still on-going. Davis tested in a very similar way to Campbell at the combine and his ability to stack blockers, play with great leverage despite his size and flash athleticism is freaky and warrants attention. I thought his field work was excellent too. Look how he turned the corner on the final bag below (and remember he’s 6-6 and 311lbs):

A lot of players on this list are ‘grown men’ types. Davis is a physically intimidating presence. The Seahawks have lacked some of that on their D-line since Michael Bennett’s departure and the days of Tony McDaniel eating up the interior. Jarran Reed provides an edge but he missed a chunk of the 2019 season. Davis alongside Reed in 2020 would be a nice look (or Calais Campbell, if the Jags are feeling generous).

There are a lot more players I could add to this list. Austin Jackson is the type of explosive, athletic offensive lineman they like to develop. I think he’s going to go in the top-20. Matt Hennessy and John Simpson both had great combines. Damien Lewis had an explosive workout before getting hurt during drills. There are a whole bunch of receivers we could discuss — including Denzel Mims, K.J. Hamler, Bryan Edwards (who could provide real value and looks like a Seahawk) and Justin Jefferson. Rashard Lawrence played with fire at LSU. And Julian Okwara will be one to monitor when he eventually has his pro-day.

This was simply a collection of players I wanted to talk about today that either enhanced their stock or could be on Seattle’s radar.

There are a several alpha types on the list. That could be a focus for the Seahawks this year. John Schneider famously said a few years ago they want to go back to being the bully. They never truly got back to that. There could be a chance this year.

Elsewhere today, it was confirmed the Seahawks have received comp picks in rounds three, four and six. Meanwhile, they’ve also promoted Dave Canales to passing game coordinator and appointed Austin Davis as quarterbacks coach (per Albert Breer). I interviewed Davis nine years ago when he was at Southern Miss. It’s great to see him enjoy a NFL career both as a player and now as a coach in Seattle.

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Monday notes: Free agency thoughts & predictions

Just a few thoughts a week away from free agency…

Who are the six?

When Pete Carroll spoke to John Clayton at the combine he mentioned they’d narrowed their search for free agent pass rushers to ‘half a dozen’ targets.

So who are they likely to be? This is my guess…

1. Jadeveon Clowney
Carroll stated it was a ‘huge priority’ to retain Clowney.

2. Yannick Ngakoue
Tony Pauline reported last week they were interested in trading for him.

3. Everson Griffen
He was linked to a Carroll reunion as soon as he opted to void his Vikings contract.

4. Arik Armstead
He’s an ideal fit for the five technique and can play inside or out.

5. Dante Fowler
He has the speed they look for off the edge and he was productive in 2019.

6. Robert Quinn
He’s an injury risk but led the league in pass rush win percentage in 2019.

Their willingness to narrow the options also hints at a very focused and determined approach to land both the ‘premier pass rusher’ Carroll wants for the LEO and the run defender who can also rush at the five technique.

Again, they had Clowney in 2019 and he alone wasn’t enough. They need to add to the D-line, not maintain the status quo. With their remaining cap space (which can be increased with some predictable cuts) they have possibly earmarked a set amount for both the LEO and the five tech.

If the list above is a sound prediction, it could mean they’ve budgeted for Clowney or Armstead — followed by the addition of one of the four pass rushers.

Who they sign to play the LEO could depend on how much they spend on Clowney/Armstead. What’s left of the budget? If there’s more available than expected — perhaps they can splash for Ngakoue via trade? If the budget is lower than intended, it could mean trying to work something out with the older veterans Griffen or Quinn. And it’s always possible Fowler has a colder than expected market given what happened a year ago. Some players just don’t turn the league on (so to speak).

There’s also the possibility of an unexpected trade.

What happens with Jarran Reed?

It’s pretty clear the Seahawks are strongly motivated to retain Reed. Culture and familiarity has an even greater importance these days. Both Carroll and John Schneider have praised Clowney and Reed for their ‘fit’.

However, first and foremost they’ve got to get the edge rush sorted. Until that happens, everything else has to take a backseat. If Reed gets a significant offer in the first wave of free agency the Seahawks might have to accept defeat. They’ll probably be hoping he remains available long enough for them to sort out the LEO and five — and then they can see if there’s a deal to be done with their remaining cap room.

There’s a precedent for this. In 2011 they were able to retain Brandon Mebane after he reached the market, while making significant moves to sign Sidney Rice, Zach Miller, Tarvaris Jackson and Robert Gallery.

After all, Everything seems unrealistic until it happens. Remember — the teams with hard cash to spend (like the Seahawks) can structure contracts to fit. You also need to factor in the likely rise in cap space over the next few years if the new CBA is ratified plus the fact several big contracts (Duane Brown, Justin Britt, K.J. Wright) will no longer be on the books within a couple of years.

The Seahawks know they need to improve the D-line. That’s hard to do if you lose one or both of your two (only?) quality starters. They might be more motivated than they usually would be to keep Reed. It’s not an ideal way to start attacking the off-season by losing one or two key players on a unit that’s already your greatest need.

I think with Reed it’ll simply come down to what the market tells him. If he’s a $12-13m a year player, they might stretch to that. It’s the current top end of the market. If it’s less, what does he do? Move on for a prove-it deal? Players very rarely stay with their original teams when they sign prove-it deals. They usually go somewhere where the scheme gives them the best chance to pad stats. That’s not a one-gap, stop-the-run-focused Seahawks interior D-line.

You might say $12-13m is too much and would be better spent elsewhere. You might have a strong case. Remember though — culture, familiarity and fit. The Seahawks love what Reed brings to their locker room and that is hugely significant.

What might they do on the O-line?

Some people will want the Seahawks to invest big on the offensive line in free agency rather than prioritise the pass rush. That’s fine, I suppose, if you’re prepared to say, ‘come and get some’ to the rest of the league with Rasheem Green and L.J. Collier as your two starting defensive ends.

You can’t throw money at every position. Given the Seahawks had a MVP caliber season from Russell Wilson in 2019, they ran the ball effectively and finished with a top-five DVOA offense — it’s pretty clear how they can improve to take a step forward in 2020. It’s upgrading one of the NFL’s worst pass rush units.

Their recent O-line plan also deserves a lot more credit than it receives.

It’s very difficult to draft quality young offensive linemen unless you’re picking early in the draft. The entire league — every team — is desperately searching for good O-liners at an affordable price.

Seattle has been drafting near the end of round one for eight straight years. They tried to go young towards the end of the LOB era and it ended very badly. More recently they’ve signed proven veterans with a lot of experience, combined with drafting and developing younger players in the later rounds.

J.R. Sweezy, Mike Iupati and D.J. Fluker are not Quenton Nelson. They’ve had their iffy moments over the last couple of years. They’ve also not prevented the offense from succeeding at an explosive level.

With major money set to be spent on the D-line, it’s highly likely their approach will continue. I suspect they’ll sign a veteran at right tackle if Germain Ifedi and George Fant depart. Someone like Jared Veldheer. He’d be cheap, experienced and provide a hedge ahead of the draft. Darryl Williams could be an alternative. That way they can look at potential early round options (Isaiah Wilson, Prince Tega Wanogho, Lucas Niang) but also later round options (Matt Peart, Alex Taylor) if needs must.

They’ve spent the last two years developing Jamarco Jones and then Phil Haynes. Eventually you have to give these players a chance to win a job. That might be your competition at left guard, with a veteran or new rookie added to the mix.

I’m not sure they’ll be much more adventurous than that unless an unexpected opportunity presents itself. That was T.J. Lang a few years ago. Seattle had a bit of money to spend and took a shot at Lang. If a similar situation emerges — perhaps for someone like Graham Glasgow — they might have a nibble there. But that might be the extent of their O-line flirtation in free agency.

The Justin Britt situation also remains an interesting one. They’ve not even cut Ed Dickson yet so nobody should expect a decision to have been made on Britt. It might depend on what happens during the legal tampering period and how much cap space they feel they need. If he goes he’ll need replacing. That could be Joey Hunt (who is an unrestricted free agent) or Ethan Pocic. It could be someone like Alex Mack if cut (and affordable) or a draft pick (Cesar Ruiz would be ideal but if not — Matt Hennessy, Nick Harris, Lloyd Cushenberry or Tyler Biadasz are options).

An opportunity at receiver?

This is such a loaded receiver class in the draft that certain free agent wide outs might receive a cooler than expected market.

(I don’t think that’ll be the case for the O-line despite it being a good offensive line class — the league just needs linemen too much)

There might be a chance to get a really good player who ends up needing to take a short-term contract. Imagine you’re a free agent and you don’t get a big offer. Wouldn’t you go and spend a year with Russell Wilson to try and boost your stock for 2021?

It’s something to consider. The Seahawks have been opportunists in the past. Wilson needs more weapons. There might be a value signing to be had at wide out.

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Why Curtis Weaver deserves more attention

In Saturday’s updated tier list, I put Boise State’s Curtis Weaver in tier five.

He deserves a lot more attention but I understand why it isn’t happening. He’s dropped from 300lbs to 265lbs. Lance Zierlein says he has a ‘soft frame’ in his NFL.com scouting report. He’s not a svelte, long and lean pass rusher.

He does have great agility though and that counts for something.

In our big combine review we mentioned the focus Seattle has placed on the short shuttle for pass rushers.

The ability to change direction quickly, pivot and accelerate is naturally a key component for any edge defender.

Despite being a 265lbs EDGE, Weaver tested with the linebackers at the combine. It’s strange how they separate the defensive tackles and defensive ends but then still have clear pass rushers working out with middle linebackers.

Weaver ran a 4.27 short shuttle at the aforementioned 265lbs. Had he worked out with the defensive linemen, that would’ve been the fastest time:

Curtis Weaver — 4.27
Alex Highsmith — 4.31
Alton Robinson — 4.32
Jonathan Greenard — 4.34
Derrek Tuszka — 4.34
Jason Strowbridge — 4.37

His time also beat Willie Gay Jr’s 4.30 at 243lbs and Zack Baun’s 4.31 at 238lbs. Gay was celebrated for his fantastic workout in Indianapolis (rightly so) while Baun is often projected as a top-40 prospect as a rush linebacker. Weaver’s 4.27 has received a lot less attention — despite the fact he’s much heavier than both Gay and Baun.

So how does a 4.27 compare with other players who recently entered the draft?

Joey Bosa (269lbs) — 4.21
Shaq Lawson (269lbs) — 4.21
Curtis Weaver (265lbs) — 4.27
Solomon Thomas (273lbs) — 4.28
Jordan Willis (255lbs) — 4.28
Rashan Gary (277lbs) — 4.29
Dante Fowler (261lbs) — 4.32
Chandler Jones (266lbs) — 4.38

Bosa, Lawson, Thomas, Gary, Fowler and Jones were all first round picks — while Willis is one of the top testers in recent memory.

The time is also in Seattle’s wheelhouse for the positon. Cassius Marsh — whose weight was up and down at college depending on where he was asked to play — ran a 4.25. Obum Gwachum ran a 4.28.

What about the three cone?

Weaver’s 7.00 was identical to Zack Baun’s and was marginally quicker than Willie Gay Jr’s 7.08. Again, Weaver is a significantly heavier player.

It would’ve also been the second fastest time among defensive linemen this year:

Derrek Tuska — 6.87
Curtis Weaver — 7.00
Jonathan Greenard — 7.13
D.J. Wonnum — 7.25
Alex Highsmith — 7.32
Alton Robinson — 7.32

Here’s how his three cone compares to the veteran players listed earlier:

Jordan Willis (255lbs) — 6.85
Joey Bosa (269lbs) — 6.89
Solomon Thomas (273lbs) — 6.95
Curtis Weaver (265lbs) — 7.00
Chandler Jones (266lbs) — 7.07
Shaq Lawson (269lbs) — 7.16
Rashan Gary (277lbs) — 7.26
Dante Fowler (261lbs) — 7.40

Last week we noted Seattle’s focus on pressure percentage. In the last two seasons, Weaver’s number is 18.4% — tied for first among draft eligible prospects alongside Julian Okwara. I don’t have the specific 2019 number but his pressure percentage in 2018 was 21.6%.

In terms of career pressures in college, Weaver recorded 147. Only Chase Young had more (150) among 2020 draft prospects.

He’s also in the top-five for pass rush win percentage in 2019:

Chase Young — 27.2%
Joshua Uche — 27%
Julian Okwara — 23%
Curtis Weaver — 22.9%
Alex Highsmith — 21.7%

His pass rush win percentage in 2018 (when he was fully healthy) was an incredible 31.1%.

These are all appealing numbers. It’s just the frame that makes you pause.

The Seahawks haven’t drafted anyone who looks like Weaver. He’s only 6-2 but quite heavy for the height. He has short 32 3/8 inch arms. Cassius Marsh had arms just shy of 33 inches and they brought him in but generally they stick to the +33 inch arm bracket.

It’s not just a Seattle thing either. I can’t think of anyone he really looks like or compares to. The league is always suspicious of players who fit that description.

What he did in college, albeit against relatively weak opponents, is top level. His agility testing paints a clear picture as to why he succeeded. Yet there are physical limitations and an unnatural pass rush frame to balance things out.

For that reason, he might not go as early as he otherwise would. Yet there will come a point in the draft when someone will take a shot on him in the hope that the agility testing and college production will translate.

And it’s not like players don’t overcome limitations. Za’Darius Smith was 6-4 and 274lbs at his combine with 32.5 inch arms. He ran a 4.66 short shuttle, a 4.83 forty and jumped a 29 inch vertical. In 2019 he was one of the NFL’s top pass rushers after signing a big contract in Green Bay as a free agent.

I suspect the team that does take him will do so with the intention of making him a pass rush specialist. That’s probably why he ultimately worked out with the linebackers. Like the two Smith’s in Green Bay — his best role might be suited to playing aggressively in space on key passing downs. He’s not a dominant run blocker and it might be a stretch, with his physical profile, to imagine him operating as an every-down DE in a 4-3 formation.

It shouldn’t be a surprise though if he excels in the role of a situational, specialist rusher in a 3-4 and turns it into a big second contract.

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Updated 2020 draft tier list (post-combine)

Jonathan Taylor was one of the big winners at the combine

I’ve used the information from the combine and updated the tier list. This is my attempt to try and reflect on where some of the shelves are in this draft.

Tier one

Joe Burrow (QB, LSU)
Jeff Okudah (CB, Ohio State)
Isaiah Simmons (LB, Clemson)
Chase Young (DE, Ohio State)
Derrick Brown (DT, Auburn)
Andrew Thomas (T, Georgia)

I’ve narrowed the top tier to six prospects. Joe Burrow had a college football season for the ages in 2019 and fully deserves to be the #1 pick. He’s supremely accurate and poised but also has the ability to improvise and throw on the run.

Jeff Okudah is the best combination of talent and athleticism at cornerback since Patrick Peterson. He has ideal size, length and height and he’s a 142.56 SPARQ athlete, capable of running a 4.4, a 4.03 short shuttle and jumping a 41 inch vertical.

Isaiah Simmons is the complete package. He has great size and length (6-4, 238lbs, 33.5 inch arms), he ran a 4.39 forty and he was the heart and soul of Clemson’s Championship defense. He could change the game.

Derrick Brown didn’t have a great combine but not everything rests on a testing performance. He dominated for Auburn as a disruptive and disciplined defensive tackle with great size. It’s incredible how impactful Brown is. He’s so quick and aggressive and always has to be accounted for.

Chase Young skipped the combine which, to me, suggests our prediction of a poor workout was likely spot on. At SPARQ he ran a 4.94 forty and a 4.46 short shuttle. Even so, he had two terrific seasons at Ohio State and will almost certainly be the #2 pick in the draft.

The nonsense written about Andrew Thomas a few weeks ago shouldn’t be forgotten. All those people who were calling him a guard and putting him in the late first are now moving him back into the top-12. He has classic tackle size (6-5, 315lbs, 36 inch arms) and was a master at Georgia.

Tier two

Tristan Wirfs (G, Iowa)
Jonathan Taylor (RB, Wisconsin)
Henry Ruggs III (WR, Alabama)
Mekhi Becton (T, Louisville)
Javon Kinlaw (DT, South Carolina)
Jedrick Wills (G, Alabama)
Cesar Ruiz (C, Michigan)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, LSU)
Austin Jackson (T, USC)
C.J. Henderson (CB, Florida)

I’ve listed Tristan Wirfs as a guard. I think his frame is ideally suited to moving inside and it’s where he’ll make the most of his impossibly explosive traits. He was one of the stars of the combine, not unexpectedly, and will have teams salivating over his potential.

Jonathan Taylor is a deserved riser after a tremendous combine. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if he goes a lot earlier than people are currently projecting. Some teams still value the idea of a special running back and that is what Taylor is. He showed he’s the perfect combination of size and speed while on tape he sprints away from defenders and he runs over them. He led draft eligible running backs for yards after contact (1257 yards).

Henry Ruggs III was always going to run fast and a 4.28 was fairly anti-climactic in the end. At the next level though, every opponent who faces Ruggs will have to account for his speed. He will dictate game-plans every week.

The concern with Mekhi Becton was two-fold. One — he needs a lot of work on his pass-sets. Two — how athletic is he considering he has to shift around a 364lbs frame? After running a 5.10 it’s quite simple — he’s a freak of nature and every team will be very happy to work on his pass-sets.

Javon Kinlaw didn’t workout at the combine but he showed enough in two days at the Senior Bowl to suggest that the Alabama tape (and others in 2019) wasn’t a fluke. He has Fletcher Cox-type potential as a wrecking-ball defensive lineman.

Like Tristan Wirfs, I’m listing Jedrick Wills as a guard. This is the body of a guard. That’s fine though. He showed he was very explosive with exceptional footwork at the combine. Plug him in at left or right guard and enjoy ten years of quality play.

Cesar Ruiz has been a blog favourite for months. He’s a first round pick. The combine shouldn’t surprise anyone. He’s highly explosive and perfectly sized. Within two or three years he could be the best center in the NFL.

I’ve moved Clyde Edwards-Helaire down a few spots but he’s still very much a second tier prospect. I’m not bothered about a 4.6 forty. He jumped a 39.5 inch vertical and that’s a lot more important. He’s an incredible talent who plays with brutality as a runner. He’s an exceptional route runner and pass catcher. He energises his team mates. Draft the guy.

Austin Jackson needs time and might need a year or two to realise his potential. Left tackle prospects who are 6-5, 322lbs, run a 5.07 and jump a 31 inch vertical don’t last long in the draft for a reason though.

C.J. Henderson wasn’t much of a ballhawk at Florida but his coverage was always tight and he flashed a ton of potential. He can cover the slot or outside, he’s well sized for most teams and he ran a 4.39 to go with a 37.5 inch vertical. He’ll go early.

Tier three

Ceedee Lamb (WR, Oklahoma)
Isaiah Wilson (T, Georgia)
Jalen Reagor (WR, TCU)
Jerry Jeudy (WR, Alabama)
Denzel Mims (WR, Baylor)
Kenneth Murray (LB, Oklahoma)
Patrick Queen (LB, LSU)
Antoine Winfield Jr (S, Minnesota)
D’Andre Swift (RB, Georgia)
Raekwon Davis (DT, Alabama)
K.J. Hamler (WR, Penn State)
Ezra Cleveland (T, Boise State)

A 4.50 forty is fine for Ceedee Lamb. The fear was he’d run a 4.56. He’s a magician as a YAC specialist but during catching drills he showed unique body control and contortion skills that were just exciting to watch.

Isaiah Wilson was second only to Tristan Wirfs as the best combination of massive size and explosive power at the combine. He had a fantastic 2019 season as he and Andrew Thomas combined to create a laughably good pocket for Jake Fromm. Run-blocking is his speciality though. He’s 6-6 and 350lbs and carries hardly any bad weight. He’s a terminator.

Jalen Reagor gained muscle for the combine and it slowed him down. We were expecting a 4.3 and we got a 4.47. He can rectify that at pro-day. However, his 42 inch vertical showed up on tape countless times. Despite only being 5-11 he regularly out-jumped bigger defenders to high-point the football. There aren’t many 5-11 red zone dynamo’s but that’s Reagor.

Jerry Jeudy didn’t sparkle as much as some of the other receivers. That’ll be fine for teams with a young quarterback who needs a reliable, consistent route runner. But there are just more exciting receivers in the class.

Denzel Mims was a combine star after running a 4.38 and excelling in the agility drills. I didn’t really see 4.38 on tape and that’s worth remembering. Yet his ability to win contested catches, create quick separation on shorter routes and provide chunk plays is all very appealing.

Kenneth Murray and Patrick Queen both fly around the field with speed and quickness. They’re modern day linebackers. They both ran well at the combine before picking up injuries.

Antoine Winfield Jr had a ‘wow’ combine. He ran a 4.45 and jumped a 36 inch vertical. Then the drills started and he took the roof off. His ability to shift and change direction was eye-catching. He’s so sudden with almost no wasted movement. He has everything. Production (seven picks in 2019 alone), athleticism, quickness, bloodlines, focus and maturity.

D’Andre Swift did enough by running a 4.48 and jumping a 35.5 inch vertical to keep his stock ticking along.

Raekwon Davis is a beast. He’s just what you want lining up at defensive tackle. He looked terrific at the combine and his testing numbers and size are extremely similar to Calais Campbell. I’ll take a shot on anyone you can say that about.

K.J. Hamler put up 15 bench reps of 225lbs despite only weighing 178lbs. Do people realise how freakish that is? The guy is an absolute beast. Only 1% of the world can bench their own body weight. He benched an extra 47lbs 15 times. That was the best performance on the bench by any player at any position by far. He’s a great receiver too and very creative and slippery with the ball in his hands.

If you’re 6-6, 311lbs, run a 4.93, a 4.44 short shuttle, a 7.26 three cone and you have highly explosive traits — the NFL is going to make you, Ezra Cleveland, a high draft pick.

Tier four

Grant Delpit (S, LSU)
Trevon Diggs (CB, Alabama)
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, Arizona State)
Julian Okwara (DE, Notre Dame)
Justin Herbert (QB, Oregon)
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Alabama)
Prince Tega Wanogho (T, Auburn)
Kristian Fulton (CB, LSU)
J.K. Dobbins (RB, Ohio State)
Justin Jefferson (WR, LSU)

Some of these players would be higher if they’d been able to test as expected or weren’t carrying injury question marks.

Grant Delpit didn’t work out at the combine. I’ve been resisting moving him down boards because he’s so ultra-talented. Yet Tony Pauline reported teams are getting a Greedy Williams vibe from him. I want to see him compete to restore his stock.

Trevon Diggs is an excellent athlete and does a great job tracking the ball in the air. You can work on flaws but generally you can either track the ball or you can’t and Diggs is ready to play. He didn’t take part at the combine but we know he’s a great athlete — just look at his brother.

Brandon Aiyuk is terrific. He has excellent size and acceleration. His catching technique, control, ball-tracking, positioning, ability to create easy separation and special teams dynamism makes him a fascinating talent. It was surprising that he only ran a 4.50 forty and I’ve dropped him a little as a consequence.

Julian Okwara is 6-4, 252lbs and he has 34.5 inch arms. He’s a dynamic speed rusher in a draft class with barely any dynamic speed rushers. He couldn’t run at the combine but will at Notre Dame’s pro-day. Expect a fast time.

I put the two quarterbacks in this tier. Justin Herbert is big with a good arm and he can create, improvise and deliver exceptional plays. He’s too erratic though and I think he’ll need a strong supporting cast and a quality offensive mind as a coach to get the best of him. Tua Tagovailoa would be higher but it’s as simple as this — nobody is going to know the full medical picture by the draft and I can’t rank him higher than this with major question marks about his future and his ability to play at the same level we saw pre-hip injury.

Prince Tega Wanogho has ended up becoming one of the most underrated players in the draft. With great size he was tipped to a run a 4.95 but he couldn’t run at the combine. If he falls, he’ll provide value.

Kristian Fulton is a physical corner who loves to get after it. He can line up outside or at nickel. He ran a 4.46 forty. That’s fast enough for the way he plays.

J.K. Dobbins could’ve owned the combine but he chose not to workout. He was also lighter and smaller than expected (5-9, 209lbs) which was a surprise.

I don’t really understand the hype around Justin Jefferson’s 4.43 forty. He’s always looked like a mid-4.4’s type. He’s solid and consistent.

Tier five

Damien Lewis (G, LSU)
Willie Gay Jr (LB, Mississippi State)
Hunter Bryant (TE, Washington)
Anthony McFarland (RB, Maryland)
Matt Hennessy (C, Temple)
Jabari Zuniga (DE, Florida)
Curtis Weaver (DE, Boise State)
Logan Stenberg (G, Kentucky)
Shane Lemieux (G, Oregon)
John Simpson (G, Clemson)
Jalen Hurts (QB, Oklahoma)
Jordan Love (QB, Utah State)

The more I’ve watched of Damien Lewis the more I’ve liked. He’s a terror blocking in the run game, he recovers well and is very difficult to beat. He looked very polished and accomplished at the Senior Bowl. At the combine he showed he’s explosive with great size.

Willie Gay Jr jumped a 39.5 inch vertical, ran a 4.46 and a 4.3 short shuttle. He’s such a playmaker too and the only thing holding him back is some 2019 weirdness (suspensions, incidents).

Hunter Bryant is a dynamic big-slot or joker TE who will create endless mismatches. He ran a superb 7.08 short shuttle and his overall testing marks aren’t a million miles away from Jordan Reed.

I think Anthony McFarland is one of the most underrated players in the draft. He’s so quick, so electric. He destroyed Ohio State in 2018. He won’t fit every scheme but if he lands in the right place — watch out.

The more I watched of Matt Hennessy at the Senior Bowl the more impressive he looked. Hennessy was one of the top performers in Mobile having been able to make a full assessment. He could easily go in round two.

Jabari Zuniga is one of the most explosive pass rushers to enter the league in recent years and he ran a good 4.64 forty to rebuild his stock after an injury plagued 2019 season. He could be a value pick.

Curtis Weaver lacks length or a typical pass rushing body (he’s 6-2 and 265lbs but dropped weight from 300lbs). Even so, he had 18.5 TFL’s and 13.5 sacks in 2019 and ran a 4.27 short shuttle which catches the eye. That will translate.

I’m a huge Logan Stenberg fan. He absolutely batters opponents and is a true finisher. He reminds me of Alex Boone. He talks how you want a guard to talk. He lacks ideal length and profile but who cares with the way he plays. Shane Lemieux is also very aggressive yet controlled and was mightily impressive on tape. John Simpson has some iffy moments with his footwork but his size, tenacity and aggressive blocking style has some appeal.

I’m putting Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love in the same area. Both players have the tools to be starting NFL quarterbacks. Yet both players need to be more consistent and learn to handle pressure and slow the game down. Hurts was exceptional at the combine. I wouldn’t bet against him.

Tier six

Davon Hamilton (DT, Ohio State)
Justin Madubuike (DT, Texas A&M)
Jonathan Greenard (DE, Florida)
Kyle Dugger (S, Lenoir Rhyne)
Devin Asiasi (TE, UCLA)
Adam Trautman (TE, Dayton)
Hakeem Adeniji (G, Kansas)
Chase Claypool (WR, Notre Dame)
Nick Harris (C, Washington)
Michael Pittman Jr (WR, USC)
Rashard Lawrence (DT, LSU)
Cam Akers (RB, Florida State)
Matt Peart (T, Connecticut)
Zack Moss (RB, Utah)

Davon Hamilton was highly explosive and has outstanding size (6-4, 320lbs, 33 inch arms). If you want someone to anchor the interior this is your guy. Justin Madubuike was by far the best performer during D-line drills at the combine. He just looked so smooth and fluid. The problem is — where’s he playing at his size?

It was no secret that Jonathan Greenard was going to run in the 4.8-4.9 range at the combine. However, a 4.34 short shuttle shows up on tape and he has 35 inch vines for arms. He’s always had something, he just lacks twitch.

Kyler Dugger has the size, he’s highly explosive, he’s a star special teamer and most importantly — he’s a true alpha. The Seahawks need some dogs and Dugger fits the bill. He does have a little stiffness though and ran a slower than expected 4.49.

Devin Asiasi is a very clean catcher of a football and while he appears heavy there’s no doubting his quickness and athletic elegance at tight end. Adam Trautman running a 6.78 three cone and a 4.27 short shuttle has piqued my interest. You can work with those numbers to create mismatches.

Every time I watched Hakeem Adeniji I thought he was impressive in Mobile. Now he had an explosive workout at the combine. He has tackle experience but will play guard. He’s a great prospect to try and develop.

Chase Claypool was one of the stars of the combine with his complete performance. I don’t think he’s quite the fluid athlete his testing might suggest but as a big target with rare speed and change of direction, he’s a worthwhile project.

Nick Harris is undersized and won’t be everyone’s cup of tea. I don’t care. I love his tenacity, attitude, physical style, ability to get out into space and connect and his pissed off approach to the game. I thought he looked excellent during combine drills.

Michael Pittman Jr ran well at the combine (4.52 at 6-4, 223lbs) and he also excelled in the explosive and agility tests. I just didn’t see much separation on tape or an ability to win with quickness and suddenness. It’s key for most schemes these days. I suspect on some boards he’ll be rated a lot higher than others. It’ll just depend on how the offense is coordinated.

Rashard Lawrence equally just plays with a fire and intensity that you need in the trenches. As a former #12 overall recruit, he ran a 5.07 forty. He gives you everything and he’s well sized at 6-2, 308lbs and 34 1/8 inch arms.

Cam Akers fits the Seahawks’ profile for a running back with a great blend of explosive power and size. He also ran well in the forty.

Matt Peart just oozes potential. He’s 6-7, 318lbs and has nearly 37 inch arms. He’s a candidate to draft and develop.

Zack Moss has explosive qualities and he’s a really tough, physical runner. I just wonder about his upside and ability to shine at the next level.

To be determined…

Tee Higgins (WR, Clemson)
Joshua Uche (LB, Michigan)
Yetur Gross-Matos (DE, Penn State)
K’Lavon Chaisson (LB, LSU)
Bryan Edwards (WR, South Carolina)
Robert Hunt (T, Louisiana-Lafayette)
Lucas Niang (T, TCU)

Tee Higgins said he wasn’t doing anything at the combine because he needed a rest. I’m tempted to rest him from all of my mocks and tier lists for the rest of the year.

Joshua Uche, Yetur Gross-Matos and K’Lavon Chaisson didn’t run at the combine. All have strengths and weaknesses but all also rely quite a bit on upside (which is impossible to determine until we have testing numbers).

Bryan Edwards broke his foot during combine training. He’s a terrific receiver who shouldn’t fall too far.

I’m intrigued by Robert Hunt. He sets the tone as a blocker but he’s injured. It would’ve been interesting to see how he tested at the combine.

Lucas Niang is a forgotten man of the class due to injury but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he entered the league and quickly became a starting right tackle or guard.

If you missed yesterday’s post-combine, pre-free agency podcast, check it out below…

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Report: Seahawks want to trade for Yannick Nagkoue

Friend of the blog Tony Pauline isn’t just a terrific draft analyst. He’s one of the best insiders in the business and a proven, trusted source.

So when he reports the following, it’s worth paying attention:

I’ve been told by a very good source that the Seahawks would like to acquire Yannick Ngakoue via trade. My sources tell me they believe compensation would include something like a second-round selection and possibly a situation where the Seahawks swap their pick in round one for the Jags pick in the second round.

The fact the source even proposed a very specific level of compensation is interesting. It almost reads like this is someway down the road.

The Jaguars do need to save money. Cutting Marcell Dareus saved $20m. Trading AJ Buoye saved another $11.4m. Spotrac suggests the Jaguars have as much as $33m in available cap space following these moves.

The thing is, they seem determined to try and trade Nick Foles. Gardner Minshew deserves to be the starting quarterback next season. Foles was a free agency flop — getting injured then failing to steal the job away from Minshew on his return.

It’s possible, perhaps even likely, that Foles was a Tom Coughlin signing. With Coughlin now gone the current regime might want to make a statement of faith in Minshew, while also getting out of the Foles contract as soon as possible.

It also wouldn’t be an ideal scenario to have Foles on the bench every time Minshew has a rough outing. They need to give Minshew an opportunity to be their franchise quarterback without any media pressure if he faces some sophomore difficulties.

Trading Foles will cost nearly $34m. That’s his year-two dead cap hit.

It’d be another Brock Osweiler situation. A team just looking to get out of a bad contract as soon as possible in order to prevent the situation lingering beyond this year.

Yet any trade would eat up all of Jacksonville’s available cap space. So in order to do this, they’ll need to make further savings.

They can save $12.5m by cutting or trading Marqise Lee, Abry Jones and Geoff Swaim. If they’re willing to move on from center Brandon Linder, then it’s another $8m. That’d create enough room for a draft class and maybe a couple of cheap free agent signings. It’s not enough for a draft class and to retain Yannick Ngakoue on the franchise tag though.

Thus — why trading him is very likely.

It’d be interesting to know where the Jaguars honestly think they’re at. They’ve become a dysfunctional franchise again. They’re trading away assets. They’re seemingly getting younger.

Is this a full blown rebuild or reset? Or are they trying to do a bit of both — not collapse any further while also accepting change is required?

For example, they’ve had ample opportunity to say, ‘Calais Campbell isn’t going anywhere’ and they’ve not done it. The owner and GM have both been asked. Despite his clear influence, production and talent — they’re not even committing to him. The Walter Payton man of the year and a top-five statistical defensive lineman.

Here’s what David Caldwell said at the combine about Campbell:

“We think he still has a lot of football ahead of him. A lot of these pieces are fluid. If we add a piece or delete a piece, a lot of those decisions will be made dependent on what we do in free agency and the draft.”

It reads like a man who would ideally keep Campbell while appreciating it might not be possible.

Here’s what he said about A.J. Buoye in the same press conference:

“A.J. had a nice year last year. He has a lot of football left in him. Another player we like as a person and as a guy.”

Buoye was traded to the Broncos this week. The statements are almost identical. They like him, he has lots of football ahead of him. Buoye was dealt. Is Campbell on the way too?

It’ll be interesting to see what happens there — given we know how much the Seahawks admire Calais.

I digress. Back to Nagkoue. Whatever happens, it’s inevitable he will leave Jacksonville. They can’t afford him and he wants to go.

In an interview with John Clayton last week, Pete Carroll stated the following:

“What we’re trying to find is a real premier pass rusher to play the LEO spot and we need a run defender who can mix and do both (five-technique and LEO).

“The five technique guy generally has the ability to move inside on nickel situations and rush on the guard and that’s kind of how that formats but you’re looking for a unique, extraordinary pass rush guy for the LEO spot.”

I’ve not studied Ngakoue enough to say whether he’s a premier pass rusher suitable for the LEO but here’s what NFL.com says about him in their ‘top-100’ free agents list (Ngakoue is ranked at #5):

“Ngakoue specializes in the blind-side speed rush, a style of QB hunting that tends to generate takeaways via strip sacks and forced mistakes. Not yet 25 years old, he understands players with his profile will break the bank once the bids start rolling in.”

He has 37.5 sacks in four seasons. He’s not the twitchy, dynamic athlete we’ve seen them add at the position previously. Bruce Irvin, Cliff Avril and Frank Clark were all outstanding athletes. Yet they’ve also used Chris Clemons and his physical profile is similar to Ngakoue’s:

Chris Clemons
Height: 6-3
Weight: 255lbs
Arms: 32 1/4 inches
Forty: 4.64
10-yard: 1.72
Vertical: 35 inches
Broad: 9-6
Short shuttle: 4.58
Three cone: 7.47
Bench: 18 reps

Yannick Ngakoue
Height: 6-2
Weight: 252lbs
Arms: 32 1/2 inches
Forty: 4.75
10-yard: 1.64
Vertical: 34.5 inches
Broad: 9-10
Short shuttle: 4.58
Three cone: 7.35
Bench: 26 reps

Of course Clemons was a cheap trade addition with no financial or draft implications. Ngakoue would arrive in Seattle at a cost of picks and a big new salary.

Even so, the physical similarities are there. Do they see a new Chris Clemons in Ngakoue? Maybe.

That in itself leads to another issue though. Between 2010 and 2012, Clemons was the only pass rusher in Seattle. He desperately needed help. That’s why they drafted Bruce Irvin in 2012 and then signed Avril and Bennett the year after.

If they trade for Ngakoue, do they have the ability to sign others? To retain Clowney? Because they need a multi-faceted pass rush not a single, isolated star.

The answer is yes — they do have the ability. If they want to. The cash-rich teams (of which Seattle is one) can do pretty much what they want. They can offer up front money and manipulate cap hits quite easily. People look at cap space as a hard number. They reduce an APY from the amount as soon as a potential signing is touted. Yet in reality, Ngakoue could sign for $17-20m a year and have a 2020 cap hit of around $6m. Frank Clark’s cap hit in 2019 after a similar trade and extension was a mere $6.5m.

(I’ve suggested $17-20m because Dee Ford’s salary in San Francisco is $17m APY and the compensation is similar — so there’s the precedent. Ford’s year-one cap hit was $14m for what it’s worth)

The downside of this, of course, is you run the risk of cap difficulties down the line and a dead money problem. Seattle faced that after 2017. Yet there’s also pressure to win over the next 3-5 years. You don’t want to waste this Russell Wilson shaped window through fear of dead cap space in 2025.

So there’s the balancing act. This has always been an aggressive team. They go after their needs. Not every plan comes off. You can never accuse them, however, of lacking intestinal fortitude.

Whether they trade for Ngakoue or not — this will be a pro-active off-season.

A final point on the compensation. A second rounder feels right. It’s just a question of whether it’s this year or not. The Dee Ford trade between Kansas City and San Francisco was for a future second round pick.

The Seahawks have two second rounders this year so it might make sense to simply relinquish one of those. It really depends how they see this draft class.

Moving from #27 to #42 is tolerable in terms of value. There is some decent day two depth. What it would do, however, is minimise opportunities to add further picks in that area by losing a valuable trade-down chip (#27). That might be a price worth paying if Ngakoue provides sacks and regular pressure.

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Pass rush win percentages (draft and free agency)

Dante Fowler had a 23% win rate as a pass rusher in 2019

A year ago Pete Carroll delivered the following quote as he prepared to draft a defensive lineman in round one:

“We’re just looking for activity and problem-makers. Usually you can look to that pressure percentage; how many times when they rush do they affect the quarterback?”

L.J. Collier’s pressure percentage was 19.2% in his final year at TCU, just below Brian Burns (19.7%) and Montez Sweat (20.2%). He had a higher rating than Clelin Ferrell (18.5%) and Rashan Gary (15.8%).

Evidently this was a big reason why they drafted him at #27.

Unfortunately pressure percentage stats aren’t widely available. PFF openly promotes ‘pass rush win percentage’ but doesn’t reveal the pressure percentages for a whole draft class.

We do know the following:

Joshua Uche — 23.3%
Terrell Lewis — 19.8%
Zach Baun — 16.5%
Jabari Zuniga — 15.8%
James Lynch — 15.7%
A.J. Epenesa — 13.4%
Jordan Elliott — 12.7%
Marlon Davidson — 12.2%
Javon Kinlaw — 12.1%
Derrick Brown — 9.8%

PFF also revealed that Julian Okwara (19.1%) and Curtis Weaver (18.2%) led all draft eligible pass rushers in pressure percentage for 2018 and 2019 combined. Chase Young was third with 17.6%.

In terms of career pressures, here are the top four:

Chase Young — 150
Curtis Weaver — 147
AJ Epenesa — 138
Julian Okwara — 124

Little bits of information like this are important. This is where PFF excels. Not so much with their unexplained and iffy ‘grades’ but certainly with these advanced stats. For example, Jonathan Taylor leads draft eligible running backs for yards after contact (1257 yards). That’s something the Seahawks will notice.

Hopefully more of the pressure percentage information will be revealed before the draft, given Carroll has acknowledged it’s significance in their evaluation process.

In the meantime, we can look at pass rush win percentage. We have the stats for college defensive tackles, defensive ends and the pro-statistics for the 2019 season (including some prominent free agents).

Draft eligible DE/EDGE pass rush win percentage:

Chase Young — 27.2%
Joshua Uche — 27%
Julian Okwara — 23%
Curtis Weaver — 22.9%
Alex Highsmith — 21.7%
Khalid Kareem — 21.4%
Bradlee Anae — 20.2%
Zach Baun — 20.1%
Jabari Zuniga — 20%
Terrell Lewis — 19.8%
Trevis Gipson — 19.2%
Carter Coughlin — 19%
Yetur Gross-Mator — 18.9%
Darrell Taylor — 18.6%
Jonathan Garvin — 18.5%
A.J. Epenesa — 17.5%
Jon Greenard — 17.2%
Marlon Davidson — 16.2%
Alton Robinson — 15.9%
James Lynch — 15.5%
Trevon Hill — 15.3%
Kenny Willekes — 14.6%
K’Lavon Chaisson — 13.1%

Joshua Uche grades very well in both pressure percentage and pass rush win percentage. PFF offer this note of caution though:

“Uche is quite the confounding evaluation because while he’s graded out exceptionally well, it’s come on a very small sample size and not from a traditional edge alignment. Many of Uche’s wins this season came almost as a blitzer walked up over interior linemen. While that’s a great skill to have, it’s not really a substitute for beating offensive tackles one-on-one. Being undersized only makes that more of a question mark.”

Uche didn’t do anything at the combine so we don’t have a physical profile to judge either. He looks like an Uchenna Nwosu type suited to playing linebacker rather than an EDGE or LEO. Michigan run a very aggressive, attack-minded defense. The Seahawks prefer to rush conservatively with four.

Julian Okwara played limited snaps in 2019 because his season was cut short through injury. However, his 23% pass rush win percentage and 2018/19 average of 19.1% pressure percentage are both intriguing. Those are the kind of numbers that could interest Seattle. In comparison, L.J. Collier had an 18% pass rush win percentage and a 19.2% pressure percentage. Like Uche, Okwara didn’t test at the combine so we don’t know his testing numbers to properly determine his Seahawks fit.

K’Lavon Chaisson’s numbers are striking for a different reason. His 13.1% pass rush win percentage is the lowest among EDGE candidates and correlates to what you see on tape. A lot of his pressures and sacks were manufactured through stunts. Any investment in him is based on potential, not production. However — he also didn’t test at the combine. So for a third time, we don’t know how truly athletic he is.

For comparison, here are the 2019 class of DE/EDGE’s and their pass rush win percentage scores:

Josh Allen — 30.3%
Jaylon Ferguson — 26.6%
Christian Miller — 24.1%
Joe Jackson — 23.1%
Montez Sweat — 22.1%
Clelin Ferrell — 21.3%
Jachai Polite — 20.4%
Oshane Ximines — 20.1%
Anthony Nelson — 19.2%
Brian Burns — 18.5%
Chase Winovich — 18.2%
L.J. Collier — 18.0%
D’Andre Walker — 16.6%
Rashan Gary — 16.2%
Ben Banogu — 16.0%
Zach Allen — 13.4%
Charles Omenihu — 10.3%

Back to the 2020 draft class and here are the defensive tackle pass rush win percentage scores:

Jordan Elliott — 18.7%
Javon Kinlaw — 18.1%
Justin Madubuike — 14.9%
Robert Windsor — 14.3%
Neville Gallimore — 14.2%
Derrick Brown — 13.7%
Raequan Williams — 13.5%
Ross Blacklock — 12.6%
Davon Hamilton — 12.6%
Josiah Coatney — 12.4%
Raekwon Davis — 11.9%
Benito Jones — 10.5%
Jason Strowbridge — 10.5%
Rashard Lawrence — 8.1%
Darrion Daniels — 8%
Leki Fotu — 7.7%

I’ve watched a bit of Jordan Elliott and I didn’t see a top-level, exciting pass rusher. Javon Kinlaw was totally different. He impacted games, even against opponents such as Alabama. I waited to see the splash plays PFF claims happen all the time with Elliott and just came away underwhelmed.

Some of these numbers matter more than others. Rashard Lawrence and Leki Fotu are never going to be elite pass-rushers so it’s not a big concern they’re at the bottom. Jason Strowbridge is much more of an inside-out rusher type and his placing at the bottom explains the difference between his college tape and his Senior Bowl performance.

Here’s the 2019 class comparison:

Quinnen Williams — 19.7%
Christian Wilkins — 16.4%
Dexter Lawrence — 14.6%
Jerry Tillery — 14.3%
Dre’Mont Jones — 13.3%
Greg Gaines — 13.0%
Trysten Hill — 12.2%
Jeffery Simmons — 11.8%
Khalen Saunders — 11.5%
Ed Oliver — 11.4%
Gerald Willis III — 10.0%

For all the hand-wringing about Raekwon Davis as a pass-rusher — his win percentage is almost identical to Jeffery Simmons who ended up being a top-20 pick despite suffering an ACL tear pre-draft. His 11.9% score is also superior to top-10 pick Ed Oliver.

It’s worth noting that of the defensive tackles above — two were top-10 picks, three went between picks 11-20, Jerry Tillery was the #28 pick, Trysten Hill the #58 pick and both Dre’Mont Jones and Khalen Saunders went in round three. So don’t be surprised if the productive pass-rushing defensive tackles listed above go early.

Finally, let’s look at the pass rush win percentage for the pro’s during the 2019 season:

DE/EDGE/OLB

Robert Quinn — 33%
T.J. Watt — 28%
DeMarcus Lawrence — 27%
Myles Garrett — 26%
Jadeveon Clowney — 25%
Joey Bosa — 25%
Shaquil Barrett — 25%
Dante Fowler — 23%
Za’Darius Smith — 23%
Preston Smith — 23%

Defensive tackle

Aaron Donald — 25%
Grady Jarrett — 22%
Chris Jones — 19%
Maliek Collins — 16%
Quinton Jefferson — 16%
Calais Campbell — 16%
Ed Oliver — 15%
Denico Autry — 14%
Matthew Ioannidis 13%
Vita Vea 13%

Of the names above, six are free agents this year — Robert Quinn, Jadeveon Clowney, Shaquil Barrett, Dante Fowler, Chris Jones and Quinton Jefferson. Kansas City are placing the franchise tag on Jones and Tampa Bay will do the same with Barrett. Quinn, Clowney, Fowler and Jefferson will reach the market.

Furthermore, several performed well after reaching free agency a year ago. DeMarcus Lawrence was tagged and then signed his big new deal with Dallas. Barrett played on a prove-it deal in Tampa Bay as did Dante Fowler in LA. Za’Darius and Preston Smith both signed with Green Bay and Grady Jarrett was tagged by Atlanta before signing a large extension. All of those deals paid off.

The results above are also a reminder that stats don’t tell the whole story. Quinton Jefferson, as well as he played at times in 2019, was clearly not more impactful than Calais Campbell.

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Further thoughts on trading up for Isaiah Simmons

In yesterday’s combine review I proposed the Seahawks trade up for Isaiah Simmons. It’s unrealistic, yes. I don’t think it will happen. I think they’ll do what they always do — identify the players they like and then manipulate the board to get as many of those individuals as possible. I still think it’s a worthwhile discussion and I wanted to put some more meat on the bones today.

In 11 years of writing this blog, I’ve never proposed a significant trade-up scenario. This isn’t something I do. The fact that I’m writing a second piece about this is a review of both Simmons’ ability and the situation the Seahawks find themselves in.

The defense needs more talent. They built a legendary unit between 2010 and 2013 using later round picks and smart free agency moves. The re-set that started in 2018 hasn’t produced the same results.

They’re among the worst ranked teams for pressures, sacks, run defense and missed tackles. The unit has flaws at every level. There’s talent too — but not enough of it to cover up some of the issues.

They don’t need to re-create the LOB to win a Championship. They just need to be better. Two or three key additions, paired with the brilliance of Russell Wilson and a highly productive top-five offense (per DVOA) could put the Seahawks right in the mix to succeed in 2020.

The recent combine was not good for the defensive side of the ball. As noted on Saturday, this is the weakest looking D-line group in a long time. Nobody working out at the combine had any speed or quickness to threaten the edge as a pass rusher.

The defensive options at #27 just don’t look that good.

It’s possible they solve this problem in free agency. They might be able to pull off another coup. Who among us predicted the Harvin/Bennett/Avril moves in 2013? Or last years trade for Jadeveon Clowney that was described by many as daylight robbery? Or swapping a fifth rounder for Quandre Diggs?

A weak defensive draft, however, is more likely to make the open market more expensive and competitive.

They might only be able to re-sign Clowney and one second-tier compliment. They might lose out on Clowney and need to invest in a different player.

Either way — as Russell Wilson noted — they need some superstars.

So what makes Simmons a potential star?

Every player has bust potential. Some are more risky than others.

The reason why I called him the first player in 11 years of blogging worthy of trading up for is simply because the risk factor is as low as I can remember.

This is a player who ran a 4.39 at 6-4 and 238lbs. He jumped a 39 inch vertical and an 11-0 broad. His physical profile is even more freaky than D.K. Metcalf. Yesterday we pointed out the similarities between Simmons and Julio Jones. His upside is as high as any defender in recent memory.

His production in college was superb. As a sophomore starter he led Clemson in tackles as they won the National Championship (89 tackles, nine TFL’s, one interception returned for a touchdown, seven PBU’s, three FF’s). As a junior he returned to the Championship game, recording 102 tackles, 16 TFL’s, eight sacks, three interceptions and nine PBU’s. He won the Butkus Award as the nation’s top linebacker.

What about his character? Simmons was an emotional leader on a roster filled with personality. He was a heart and soul type, setting the tone and leading the way.

He’s incredibly versatile. According to PFF, “Simmons played 100 or more snaps at edge defender, linebacker, strong safety, free safety and slot cornerback, all while grading out above 80.0 as a run defender, tackler, pass rusher and coverage defender.”

Sometimes versatility is a flaw. You can be a jack of all trades and master of none. I don’t see that with Simmons. It might take a little time to work out his true best role — but the talent, upside and character makes for an easy projection of success wherever he lines up.

Think of the options too. If you needed him to match-up with George Kittle when playing the Niners, can you imagine a better physical specimen for the role? What if you need someone to spy Kyler Murray? Seattle struggled mightily defending the perimeter run in 2019. How about a 4.39 runner with physical intensity to solve that problem?

He could be a long term replacement for KJ Wright at the WILL. He could replace Mychal Kendricks at the SAM and play rush and cover. He could be the fastest strong safety the league has ever seen. You could rush him off the edge on key downs and use him as a dynamic blitzer. The Seahawks need a nickel — how about a 238lbs big nickel who can run as fast as most of the smaller cornerbacks in the draft?

Whether it’s TFL’s, sacks, superior coverage or the ability to contain your NFC West opponents — be it Kittle, Murray or LA’s endless misdirection — Simmons provides a solution to all of Seattle’s woes.

I spent a bit more time looking at what a move like this would cost the Seahawks.

There are three trades worth considering as a comparison:

1. In 2011 the Atlanta Falcons traded #27, #59, a fourth round pick and their 2012 first round pick to the Browns to select Julio Jones.

2. In 2017 the Kansas City Chiefs traded #27, #91 and their 2018 first round pick to the Bills to select Patrick Mahomes.

3. In 2018 the New Orleans Saints traded #27, a fifth round pick and their 2019 first round pick to the Packers to select Marcus Davenport.

All three trades included a team moving up from #27 — the pick Seattle owns this year. It’s quite the coincidence that this pick has been traded so often.

This actually helps if you’re trying to move up. A buyer (Seattle) and a seller can use precedent to reach a fair agreement.

If the Seahawks needed to trade up to #6 or #7 — it would probably cost them one of their two second round picks, one of their two fourth round picks and their 2021 first rounder. If Simmons lasted to #10 or beyond — it’d be a bit cheaper.

When you’ve got a lot of draft picks, these types of scenarios are easier to justify.

So is Simmons even likely to last into range?

It’s possible the Lions take him at #3 after his sensational combine. It’s also very possible he lasts long enough to make a trade possible.

Let’s run through the top-12:

1. Cincinnati — they will draft Joe Burrow

2. Washington — they will draft Chase Young

3. Detroit — the safe money here is on a trade with a team for a quarterback

4. New York — Dave Gettleman is all about the trenches (DL, OL)

5. Miami — this’ll be a quarterback if they don’t move up, otherwise it could be Detroit and the hot tip is for them to draft Jeff Okudah

6. LA Chargers — this’ll be a quarterback if they don’t move up, otherwise their next biggest need is clearly O-line

7. Carolina — this is a logical landing spot for Simmons but they also need O-line and D-line help badly

8. Arizona — they too need O-line and D-line help plus they could consider a receiver

9. Jacksonville — they could take Simmons but they are yet another team who needs O-line and D-line help

10. Cleveland — they need a left tackle

11. New York Jets — they need a left tackle, a receiver or a cornerback

12. Las Vegas — Mike Mayock stated their priority is a weapon on offense

Realistically the Seahawks would need Simmons to drop to at least #6 or #7 to entertain any thoughts of a trade. When you think about it, it’s not actually that unrealistic — and he could last longer.

After all — who thought Josh Allen would last to #7 a year ago? But he did. Marshon Lattimore — tipped to be a top-five pick — lasted to #11 in 2017. Aaron Donald and Odell Beckham Jr lasted until picks #12 and #13 in 2014 — despite their extreme athleticism, big name status and huge college production.

It really comes down to positional value. This year there are a collection of quarterbacks, one supposed elite pass rusher, a handful of quality offensive tackles and a top cornerback prospect expected to go early. Teams might like Simmons — but not enough to pass on a QB, pass rusher or O-liner.

In particular you look at pick #7 right through to #11. They all desperately need an offensive tackle. And in this class, there happens to be Andrew Thomas, Tristan Wirfs, Mekhi Becton, Jedrick Wills, Austin Jackson, Isaiah Wilson and Ezra Cleveland.

You’ve also got the possibility of Derrick Brown, Javon Kinlaw and the receivers fitting into this too. We could also see Jordan Love or Jacob Eason taken early.

Mike Sando published a top-10 mock draft today with an anonymous GM making the picks. Simmons wasn’t even included. In Daniel Jeremiah’s latest mock published today, Simmons lasts to #7.

Is it beyond the realms of possibility that the Panthers — beginning a major rebuild — would prefer a haul of picks in 2020 and 2021 instead of one top-10 selection? If he lasts to #10, would the Browns be comfortable trading down? After all, their analytics-led front office stacked picks when they were first appointed and had control. Tony Pauline has been reporting the Browns really like Ezra Cleveland. Would they be willing to drop down with the aim of drafting him later on?

This is a massive off-season for the Seahawks. They’re at a crossroads. They need to turn a good team into a great team. The blueprint to doing that is clear. It’s simply more talent on defense. Two or three really quality additions.

If they can’t achieve that in free agency, it might — for the first time — be worth considering a big trade up. Not on a whim. You trade up for the player who is finally worth the move.

Yes it’d be expensive. But you’re hoping it costs you the #27 pick and the #32 pick in 2021. Seattle’s recent history of picking in that range isn’t great. A calculated gamble, with the franchise in need of a Championship inspiring boost, is justifiable.

Even if the trade was as expensive as Atlanta’s Julio Jones plan — they’d still be in possession of a second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh round pick in the 2020 draft.

Some people roll their eyes at these suggestions. They treat the NFL like a dull, uneventful league where nothing exciting happens. The exact opposite is true. Crazy, unexpected things happen all the time. Of all the talking points we’ve discussed this season — this is probably the most outrageous because there’s no precedent for them doing anything like this.

Can you say it isn’t logical though? Can you argue they don’t need a splash or two on defense? Can you argue that’s not the main thing holding them back? Can you argue against Simmons’ fit in Seattle?

I don’t think it’ll happen. But it doesn’t mean it shouldn’t.

Quick thoughts on Yannick Ngakoue

The big NFL news today involved a report stating the Jaguars would place the franchise tag on Ngakoue, only for the player to tweet the following in response:

It seems inevitable at this stage that the Jags will seek to follow in the footsteps of Seattle, Kansas City and Houston and trade a pass rusher on the tag.

Would the Seahawks be interested? They’d have to be. He has 37.5 sacks in four seasons. He doesn’t turn 25 until the end of this month. Their biggest need is pass rush and Ngakoue is one of the better young rushers in the league.

However, there are some other things to consider:

— This will be very expensive and likely cost at least #27.

— Ngakoue will need/expect an immediate extension. You’d have to pay him the exact same money Jadeveon Clowney receives as a free agent. So why wouldn’t you just pay Clowney and keep the pick?

— Frank Clark had 22 sacks in 2017 and 2018. Ngakoue has 17.5 in his last two seasons. If they wouldn’t pay Clark top money, why would they pay Nagkoue top money?

— Furthermore, Clark ticked all of the boxes in terms of physical ideals. He had the size, length, twitchy agility and explosive traits they love. Nagkoue has short arms, he ran a slow forty, he tested poorly in the short shuttle and three cone and he wasn’t very explosive. Will Ngakoue’s profile be a turn-off, even if he’s since shown to be a productive player?

— How much did Ngakoue benefit from playing on Jacksonville’s loaded defense? His best season came in 2017 when the Jags nearly made the Super Bowl. They called themselves ‘Sacks-onville’. He recorded 12.5 sacks. In the two years since, when the Jaguars have struggled, he had 9.5 and eight sacks. If you trade a high pick for him and give him an elite salary — will it be worth it if he’s only bringing in 8-9 sacks?

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