/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70038186/usa_today_16977555.0.jpg)
Russell Wilson’s salary is not holding back the Seahawks — bad drafting and roster construction is
How often do you hear the following argument:
‘You can’t pay a quarterback top dollar and succeed in the NFL‘
It’s become football rhetoric. It’s an argument we increasingly see among Seahawks fans and media too.
Russell Wilson is earning too much and therefore the Seahawks can’t contend.
It’s not totally without merit. Only three times in the last 15 years has the Super Bowl winning quarterback been among the top-five highest paid.
Yet that stat fails to recognise that success can’t simply be defined by the one single quarterback who lifts the trophy. What about the three others who reached the AFC and NFC Championship games and otherwise had outstanding seasons?
It’s hardly a counter to paying an expensive quarterback if, say, the highest paid signal caller came up a game short or suffered tremendous misfortune in the final four. And how significant is the pay difference between the top-five highest paid and say the sixth or seventh highest paid, if they go on to win a Championship?
Yet increasingly counter arguments are not voiced to oppose the growing sentiment of success equating to cheap rookie contracts at the most important position in pro sport.
I’m going to try and push back a little today.
Here’s the short argument. Let’s say Wilson turned to the Seahawks and said he was going to take a dramatic $15m pay cut. His average salary would drop to $20m a year. That would make him the 16th highest paid quarterback in the league.
What exactly does that $15m get you? Is the difference between the Seahawks being highly competitive and a legit contender $15m in extra cap space?
It wouldn’t have been enough to sign Trent Williams ($23m a year) — NFL.com’s top non-QB free agent for 2021. You would’ve had just enough to out-spend Green Bay for Aaron Jones ($12m) but would you really want to spend that much on a running back?
Trey Hendrickson’s contract with the Bengals is worth $15m a year. So technically you could’ve signed him. He’s playing very well for Cincinnati but is he alone the difference between a good and great team?
You could of course add three players worth $5m. What exactly does $5m a player get you these days? After all, Bruce Irvin was on more than that last year. Benson Mayowa’s contract is worth $3.8m.
The point I’m getting at here is even if your franchise quarterback takes a massive, unrealistic pay cut — the salary cap space you create alone isn’t really a difference maker. It doesn’t present you with an opportunity to create an all-star team. You’d have just enough to add one high-profile free agent, probably of a reasonable standard. Or you can invest a bit in your depth but you might just end up adding three fairly average players.
The cost of Wilson’s salary is not the issue here. It’s 100% to do with intelligent use of resources with whatever you have available — whether your QB is on $35m a year or a rookie contract.
The Seahawks had ample resources to create a highly successful team from the 2018 reset onwards. They simply did a bad job in the draft and free agency.
For example, Seattle spent $58.25m on the following list of players during the 2020 off-season:
Jarran Reed $9.35m
Greg Olsen $6.9m
Bruce Irvin $5.9m
Carlos Hyde $4m
B.J. Finney $3.5m
Brandon Shell $3.475m
Quinton Dunbar $3.421m
Jacob Hollister $3.259m
Benson Mayowa $3.018m
Mike Iupati $2.5m
Cedric Obuehi $2.237m
Joey Hunt $2.1m
Branden Jackson $2.1m
David Moore $2.1m
Geno Smith $887,500
Neiko Thorpe $887,500
Luke Willson $887,500
Phillip Dorsett $887,500
Chance Warmack $887,500
They then spent two future first round picks and a third round pick on Jamal Adams.
That is massive investment. It’s eye-watering.
How can anyone say $58.25m plus two future first round picks isn’t enough to craft a successful team when you already have the likes of Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Duane Brown, Bobby Wagner and Quandre Diggs under contract?
How exactly is Wilson’s deal holding you back here?
On top of that, they started the 2018 and 2019 drafts with three total first round picks. They eventually used those picks on Rashaad Penny, L.J. Collier and Marquise Blair. All busts.
So even with Wilson on an enormous extension, they’ve had so much to spend to build a contender. Again — the problem isn’t a lack of resource. It’s the total misuse of the picks and money they’ve had.
They spent $11.796m on David Moore, Branden Jackson, Joey Hunt, Cedric Ogbuehi and Jacob Hollister a year ago.
They invested $12.8m in Greg Olsen (35 years-old) and Bruce Irvin (33-years-old) and got nothing out of it. Irvin received a 32% pay increase on his 2019 salary in Carolina.
They preferred to spread their cap space on three offensive linemen (B.J. Finney, Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell) instead of investing in all-pro right tackle Jack Conklin — who earned $8m last year in a starring role for Cleveland. His salary never tops $14m with the Browns.
You don’t need me to say any more about Jamal Adams and the draft investment wasted on him, not to mention the $17.5m a year they’re now committed to.
It really is as simple as this. Had the Seahawks spent their money and picks wisely — they could easily be a top contender in the NFC right now. The size of Wilson’s contract is a total moot point. It hasn’t restricted them at all. And with the cap likely to rise rapidly over the coming years, it probably won’t restrict them in the future either.
This is the same for any team — whether you have a cheap rookie quarterback or a seasoned veteran. It all comes down to team building.
The Bengals finished 4-11-1 last season even with Joe Burrow having a successful rookie season (before he got hurt). They have elevated to one of the top teams in the AFC in 2021 by continuing to make wise decisions in free agency and the draft.
They made the right call to select Ja’Marr Chase. They’ve invested in emerging defensive linemen. They’ve added pieces to their O-line to a point where it can be serviceable. They’ve retained core players and allowed other ageing players to leave.
They’ve also embraced current NFL trends and structured their game-plans around what is generally considered to be modern-day progressive thinking.
Their success isn’t predicated on the fact Burrow’s salary is only $9m this year. Their success is built on good personnel decisions, team building and philosophy.
And guess what? They have $10m in unspent cap space. So for the purpose of this argument, let’s just give it to Joe Burrow. Now he’s on $19m this year. Now let’s take Tyler Boyd and his $9m salary. Boyd has 329 yards (53rd in the NFL) and one touchdown this season. Let’s cut him and give another $9m to Burrow. Now he’s on near enough $30m.
Are they any worse? Is the difference between Cincinnati succeeding and not succeeding the 53rd ranked receiver in the league? Their #3 guy?
The fact that there’s $10m in unused salary and $9m invested in Boyd proves how much of a fallacy ‘quarterback pay’ is when it comes to determining the potential for success. You can bump Burrow’s salary to $30m by removing one player. Even the teams with good rookie QB’s are likely not using all their cap space or they’re wasting millions on other players.
The Bengals are trending upwards because they’ve made good personnel decisions. The Seahawks are trending downwards because they’ve made bad personnel decisions.
It’s as simple as that.
There are two other arguments I want to make.
Firstly, the idea of trading Wilson to replenish stock and then trying to find another quarterback in the draft is one I struggle with a lot. I don’t think people realise how difficult this is, not to mention how tricky it’ll be to actually turn those picks into good players (especially with the 2022 draft class looking pretty horrendous).
Let’s look at every quarterback taken in the first two rounds since Wilson’s 2012 draft class:
2013
EJ Manuel — #16 overall
Geno Smith — #39 overall
2014
Blake Bortles — #3 overall
Johnny Manziel — #22 overall
Teddy Bridgewater — #32 overall
Derek Carr — #36 overall
2015
Jameis Winston — #1 overall
Marcus Mariota — #2 overall
In this three year spell alone, eight quarterbacks were taken in the first two rounds. Only Derek Carr was worth having — and he’s squarely in the second tier of NFL quarterbacks.
2016
Jared Goff — #1 overall
Carson Wentz — #2 overall
Paxton Lynch — #26 overall
Christian Hackenburg — #51 overall
2017
Mitchell Trubisky — #2 overall
Patrick Mahomes — #10 overall
Deshaun Watson — #12 overall
Deshone Kizer — #52
The interesting thing about these two drafts is Goff and Wentz were seen as ‘sure things’ yet amounted to average quarterbacks at best. Lynch and Hackenburg were both titanic busts.
In 2017, clearly Mahomes and Watson have reached elite standards. Yet Kizer was seen by many pundits as a prospective #1 overall pick for large parts of the 2015 and 2016 college seasons and Trubisky was viewed as an emerging star.
And as good as Mahomes and Watson are, there are four humongous disasters in these two years alone.
2018
Baker Mayfield — #1 overall
Sam Darnold — #3 overall
Josh Allen — #8 overall
Josh Rosen — #10 overall
Lamar Jackson — #32 overall
This was seen as an all-time draft class in 2018. Mayfield has been so-so and the Browns must be wondering whether he’s worth a big second contract. Darnold is on his second team and was just benched mid-game. Rosen has been a disaster.
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have been sensational — yet they were the third and fifth quarterbacks taken. This shows how difficult it is to identify the true quality available.
2019
Kyler Murray — #1 overall
Daniel Jones — #6 overall
Dwayne Haskins — #15 overall
Drew Lock — #42 overall
2020
Joe Burrow — #1 overall
Tua Tagovailoa — #5 overall
Justin Herbert — #6 overall
Jordan Love — #26 overall
Jalen Hurts — #53 overall
I am not including the 2021 draft class because it’s too early to judge them.
Exactly 30 quarterbacks were drafted between 2013-2020. Of that group, you can argue eight truly justified the picks used on them.
That’s a 26% success rate. Or in other words, history says you’ve got a 74% chance of making a bad investment at quarterback in the first two rounds.
The concept of getting rid of a quarterback of the quality of Wilson to enter a situation where you are trying to buy lottery tickets to get one of the 26%-ers is frightening. What’s more, five of the eight who justified their draft placing were taken in the top-10. So unless you have a top-five pick, or even the #1 overall pick, the chances are you simply won’t be in position to get the success story from a given draft class.
And of course there’s always the chance you hit on a Wilson or Dak Prescott beyond the first two rounds. That’s even rarer though than hitting with an early pick.
Let’s also not forget about Seattle’s other hand-selected quarterbacks in the Carroll era. They traded a third round pick and dropped down considerably in round two to acquire Charlie Whitehurst. They signed Tarvaris Jackson and Matt Flynn. Aside from Wilson, the only other pick they’ve spent on the position was a seventh rounder on Alex McGough.
It’s a horrible list.
Moving on from Wilson wouldn’t be a great opportunity to get cheaper at the position. It’d be a great opportunity to be a bad team — scrambling around looking for answers, constantly being undermined by your quarterback play.
See: the Denver Broncos
The only way you could justify it would be with the following:
1. You own the #1 draft pick where you are guaranteed to draft someone you have unquestioned faith in (a Trevor Lawrence type)
2. You immediately trade for a veteran of a similar quality — thus ending up in the same situation with a highly paid veteran on the roster
Again, trading Wilson isn’t the answer. Using the resources you actually have in the correct way is the key. Every team is looking for a Wilson-level starter. You don’t want to join the list of have-nots. It’s taken the Chicago Bears decades to find a franchise quarterback and they’re still looking.
The final argument I want to make is about the record of storied quarterbacks. It’s often stated, correctly, that Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees only have one Super Bowl ring each. This is lazily used to backup the point that expensive veteran quarterbacks can’t win.
Here’s the reality…
Aaron Rodgers has been in five NFC Championship games. The reason the Packers are 1-4 in those games is not down to Rodgers or his contract. Only one NFC team gets to make the Super Bowl. They’ve been beaten by rampaging Atlanta and San Francisco teams (both of which had paid high salaries to Matt Ryan and Jimmy Garoppolo). They were obviously very unfortunate against Seattle. A year ago, they blew a big opportunity to beat Tampa Bay due to errors and poor game management.
The Packers should have been in more Super Bowls. The reason they haven’t been is so much more nuanced than ‘Rodgers has a big contract’.
Now let’s look at the Saints. Drew Brees competed in three NFC Championship games, with a 1-2 record. They had a three-year run of the wildest misfortune any team could ever experience between 2017-19:
2018 — the Minnesota Miracle
2019 — botched DPI call gifts the Rams a win
2020 — heartbreaking overtime loss to the Vikings with a suspicious game-winning TD
Again, New Orleans’ playoff history is a lot more nuanced than simply asserting Brees was expensive therefore the Saints didn’t win a Super Bowl.
I suspect we’re all being influenced by two things. The CBA change in 2011 that created cheaper rookie contracts combining with the modern phenomena of a small number of young quarterbacks succeeding very early in their careers.
The NFL has changed. While it’s still very evident that some young quarterbacks struggle when they turn pro (as we’re seeing in 2021) — the transition for some hasn’t been as difficult.
By year two or three, quarterbacks are thriving. This enables a team to benefit with 2-3 years of cheap value at the position before — as we’ve seen with Mahomes and Allen — those players are paid record-breaking deals.
Yet there are two things to remember here.
Firstly, that value doesn’t last very long. It’s simply not realistic for a team to have a great quarterback for three or four years then move them on in favour of trying to find the next star. We’ve seen that with Kansas City and Buffalo. They realise how risky that is. I doubt any team will ever make the call to move on from a Mahomes or Allen before they reach their second contract to ‘try’ and find the next stud in the draft.
If the Seahawks did move Wilson and then hit the jackpot again — not only would they be very fortunate, they’d also be only three or four years removed from being in the same position of having to fork out a big extension.
Secondly, it’s pretty clear that what dictates success in the NFL isn’t value at quarterback. It’s quality. A top-class quarterback supported properly by wise personnel decisions to deliver a complementary roster.
Since Pete Carroll’s arrival in Seattle in January 2010, these are the quarterbacks to appear in the NFC or AFC Championship games:
Tom Brady (9)
Aaron Rodgers (5)
Peyton Manning (3)
Patrick Mahomes (3)
Drew Brees (2)
Ben Roethlisberger (2)
Matt Ryan (2)
Russell Wilson (2)
Mark Sanchez (2)
Colin Kaepernick (2)
Joe Flacco (2)
Brett Favre
Jay Cutler
Eli Manning
Alex Smith
Andrew Luck
Carson Palmer
Cam Newton
Case Keenum
Nick Foles
Blake Bortles
Jared Goff
Jimmy Garoppolo
Ryan Tannehill
Josh Allen
What this shows is that quality, regardless of cost, matters. Yes there are exceptions on the list. Nobody would mistake Mark Sanchez, Blake Bortles or Case Keenum as great players. Yet it’s worth noting just how good the rest of their rosters needed to be to essentially carry them at quarterback.
Typically the winning combo is this — an excellent quarterback well supported due to good roster building. That means good drafting and wise veterans additions.
Mahomes and Allen aren’t succeeding now because they’ve been cheap. They’re succeeding because they’re brilliant and the Chiefs and Bills have done an outstanding job in recent years building their rosters.
Tom Brady hasn’t been in nine Championship games because of his salary. He’s been in nine championship games because he’s the greatest quarterback ever to play the game and both New England and Tampa Bay have done a good job supporting him by drafting and signing well. That was down to intelligent decision making, not the fact Brady allowed both teams to save literally only a few million dollars.
The key to Seattle returning to the top echelon of the NFL is not trading Wilson, embracing an expansion-level rebuild and hoping magic is created.
The key is for the Seahawks to do a much better job in the draft and free agency and create the kind of environment that adequately supports Wilson and enables him to succeed.
This is why he’s been considering his future. He no longer believes in Pete Carroll’s philosophy. He doesn’t think the roster building has been good enough. He no longer thinks this team is positioning itself to be successful.
They have to get back to that. This organisation needs to prove to Wilson they are serious about returning to that level.
Please consider supporting the blog via Patreon (click the tab below)…
Become a Patron!