Before getting into the notes for this week, a few general Seahawks/draft thoughts…
The Denver Broncos look like a bad team. I don’t, however, think they’re going to be bad enough to deliver a top-five pick to the Seahawks.
Winning in London where they rode their luck a bit then did just enough at the end was big for Denver. That’s the kind of game a really bad team finds a way to lose.
They do have a tricky schedule to come (including two games against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs) but I suspect they’ll be in the 6-8 win range rather than the 3-5 win range you need to get into the top-five. This year, for example, the New York Giants had the #5 overall pick and only had four wins in 2021.
Increasingly it looks like Seattle will end up with the picks we kind of expected, only in reverse — with Denver providing a pick in the #8-12 range and Seattle picking later in round one.
I’m fascinated to see how this draft class shapes up given the lack of emerging players who we can seriously consider top-10 picks. This is a uniquely light draft — where prospective high picks have been injured or under-performed and very few players have promoted their stock into the top range.
Seattle currently owns the #10 and #22 pick as things stand — it might be that both players they claim with those picks (if they keep them) carry fringe first or second round grades. Or they might be forced to go for talent, just at positions we don’t consider ‘key needs’.
For example, the meltdown that will occur if they take Texas running back Bijan Robinson with a top-10 pick will probably crash the internet. Yet it’s not beyond the realms of possibility he would be light years ahead of any other player available if Seattle picks in the top-10 and the quarterbacks and defensive linemen worthy of early consideration are all gone.
They could trade up — but it’d be expensive and risky.
There are good receivers in this class they might consider. There’s a little bit of a risk factor with Quentin Johnson but I can imagine the Seahawks loving his upside. I’m a big admirer of Jalin Hyatt and Jonathan Mingo (who would be a good second round option). Jaxon Smith-Njigba has missed most of this season but he was incredibly impressive in 2021 (long speed could be an issue, though). I’m really interested to see how the under rated Bryce Ford-Wheaton tests if he turns pro.
There’s one brilliant tight end in Michael Mayer. Would they want to go down that road? Almost certainly not for a tight end but again — how much are you willing to compromise on talent to address positions of greater priority when you’re still only going into the second off-season of a build (even if that build is producing results faster than expected)?
Or it’s possible one or more of the top defensive tackles last. I think Mazi Smith will go a lot earlier than people think and Jalen Carter/Bryan Bresee a bit later. Especially Bresee who, while having an outstanding physical profile, hasn’t played at the level he’s capable of and has a fairly significant injury history.
Will a quarterback be available to them? It’s still possible — and should still be considered if it’s one of what I’d call ‘the big four’. I think we’re seeing the benefit of time with Geno Smith and the folly of being thrown in at the deep end (see: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson). It might be wise to have ‘one in the chamber’ behind Smith, unless they genuinely believe Drew Lock can essentially do what Geno’s doing now down the line.
It’d be nice to have deeper, more reassuring options (for example a stacked top-20 loaded with talent at various positions but mainly D-line) but at least there are some options — plus some intrigue.
I hope, ultimately, they build on the success of this year by focusing on the premium positions while being ready to capitalise on a great opportunity, as they did with Ken Walker. Needs kindly seemed to match available talent in the 2022 draft. They might not be as fortunate in 2023 but I hope the focus remains on talent acquisition, not position-addressing. The last time they had two first round picks they ended up with L.J. Collier and trading down for Marquise Blair when the likes of Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf were available. I’d rather just get as much talent as possible in the next draft than tick off a wish-list of positions.
Finally, before getting into the scouting notes, I’m glad the Seahawks (so far) haven’t pulled any moves like the Roquan Smith trade to Baltimore.
The Seahawks don’t need to dabble in rental trades for players who are due massive contract extensions in the off-season. Fresh off such an emphatically successful 2022 draft — retaining their picks should be key.
Furthermore — as we’ve discussed a lot already — they don’t have that much cap space in 2023. Adding a player you need to give a big fat contract to in 2023 simply decreases your chances of keeping Geno Smith beyond this season.
Florida vs Georgia
Highly rated Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter returned from his knee injury in this game and had an impact, while also highlighting some of the pros and cons of his game.
He showed flashes of real quality, swimming through the gap to penetrate and collapse the interior. One move in particular created a key pressure on a big fourth down play. He is the closest thing in this draft class to a Jeffrey Simmons type. He has an athletic looking frame (listed at 6-3 and 300lbs) and his quickness and agility — combined with his power — are key reasons why he will be a first round pick.
I also think this game showed again that he needs to become more consistent. You could pull a highlights package of 4-5 plays and use it for the basis of saying Carter’s a sure-fire top-five pick. Yet there were also a lot of ‘nothing’ reps where you’re left wanting a bit more.
This is why I’ve so far couched my rating for Carter. The flashes are great and I’ve no doubt they’d show up at the next level too. But you want to see more than the occasional flash. You want to see evidence of a more rounded game.
Can he be more than a one-gap penetrator? Can he be a plus run defender to warrant any-down value? Can he stack up blocks and draw extra attention at the LOS at the next level? Can he play with better leverage? Does he have the potential to take over a game rather than just flash every now and again? And when he’s given opportunities to shoot into the backfield, can we see more consistent production?
He only has three sacks in college football. It’d be nice to see a bit more production and consistency. I appreciate he’s been injured this year — but prior to jumping to the league, can he take another step in college to end this season on a high?
He has the physical tools to be a formidable force and that could be all that is needed in this light-weight first round to go very early. I suspect he’ll have growing pains early in his career though and there’s going to be some projection on what he can be. How high he goes will depend on a team’s willingness to take a chance on him delivering on his potential and being more consistent.
Elsewhere, UGA safety Christopher Smith was again impactful. He broke up deep passes in this game, ran to the sideline with great quickness, his read/react is very good and he comes up to the LOS and makes tackles. He’s trusty, fast and tough. As I’ve suggested before, depending on how he tests, he can be a second round pick.
Cornerback Kelee Ringo gets beat too often. Yes he has physical tools and that makes him a really intriguing prospect who will almost certainly go in the top-45. Yet at times he’s as close to a liability as Georgia can have. Ringo jumped too early on a deep ball from Anthony Richardson and gave up an explosive play downfield — a habit that we’ve seen a few too many times recently. Ringo’s phsyical tools are through the roof but to max out his draft stock he has to start doing the fundamentals better.
Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson was hit in the thigh on his first snap and twisted his knee awkwardly falling to the ground. He played through the pain but couldn’t run in the first half. He still flashed great escapability, physical tools and arm strength. He was very creative to extend plays. Richardson can throw downfield with precision and velocity and he was incredibly difficult to bring down even when defenders burst into the backfield.
There were also some throws where he was a split second too late or misfired slightly.
By now we all know about Richardson — the obscene upside and the need for further development. It was reported over the weekend he is leaning towards turning pro.
I can’t see anything changing my opinion at this point. His physical upside is so extreme — as high as any quarterback I’ve watched entering the league. I think it would be a good use of a high pick to select him, let him develop behind Geno Smith with the possibility he eventually takes over. Richardson has the talent to be a Josh Allen level player. Like Allen, he also needs time, refinement and guidance to deliver on his potential.
I’m not sure he’ll be there for the Seahawks unless they pick very early. Even with his inconsistent play — he’s already performing at a higher standard than Allen did at Wyoming. I suspect someone will take him in the top-five because the upside is simply too good.
Florida linebacker Ventrell Miller doesn’t get much help on a struggling Florida defense but he’s a magnet to the ball carrier and a pillar of consistency. He’s been impactful all season. In this game he showed some ability as a blitzer, played with his usual aggression and did his best to slow down Georgia’s running game. I’m not sure he will have the physical profile or speed to interest the Seahawks but he’s having a very good season. Miller has also been playing through an injury all season and he’s been the heart and soul for the Gators.
Georgia tight end Darnell Washington is a tank. He’s not the quickest but his frame is fairly remarkable. In this game he again showed real potential as an extra blocker who can settle into soft areas of zone coverage and provide a big target on mid-range throws and in the red zone. He had one careless drop against Florida but otherwise provided a nice outlet. He will be a useful player at the next level although testing will determine how early he’s drafted.
Linebacker Nolan Smith is regularly projected as a first round pick but I’m not convinced. He’s a decent player, undersized and I just think there’s nothing particularly special about him. For me he’s a day two pick. I felt the same way about Nakobe Dean and he lasted into round three. The same might happen to Smith.
Michigan State vs Michigan
This was the best game I’ve seen from Michigan pass rusher Mike Morris. In previous games I think he’s played with a lack of urgency despite an increasing buzz in the media. This was a very different story. He led the pre-game speech to the team and came out roaring. He had a nice sack on an inside move before half-time, ran around like his hair was on fire and created pressure from the edge. More of this please.
Defensive tackle Mazi Smith had possibly his quietest game of the season but still looked a class above. There aren’t many nose tackles who come back onto the field for 3rd and long. Smith’s ability to shoot gaps at his size is virtually unheard of. Here he was pushing the pocket, winning with quickness again. He will destroy the combine. He can be even better when he learns to time his get-off to match the snap. He has shorter arms which will put some teams off but he’s a freakish athlete and the most disruptive defensive tackle I’ve watched this season.
Kentucky vs Tennessee
This was an absolute car crash of a performance from Kentucky and one I’m sure will lead to an overreaction from draft pontificators regarding Will Levis’ contribution to said car crash.
It’s absolutely the case that Levis played badly, had three turnovers and he deserves to be criticised for his part in this horror show.
His first interception was just a good play by the safety — hammering the receiver as he caught the ball leading to a tipped pass. That was unfortunate. His next two picks were late throws that were more ‘throw and hope for the best’ than anything close to timing and rhythm. These were mistakes by a pressing quarterback chasing the scoreboard.
What I will say though is I’m not sure any NFL evaluator is going to take even a second look at this tape. You can’t glean anything from a game like this where Kentucky were so hopelessly dreadful in every aspect.
Levis had no chance. He was throwing to overmatched freshman receivers who appeared allergic to contact. His one trusty receiver, Tayvion Robinson, dropped an easy back-shoulder fade on third down when the score was only 13-6. The Kentucky offensive line gave up another four sacks and eight TFL’s in another disaster-zone performance. The scoreboard pressure was constricting almost immediately. Why? Mainly because for whatever reason Kentucky’s secondary kept blowing the same coverage. The safety and corner on the left hand side kept being drawn to the same player, leaving Jalin Hyatt running wide open downfield. It was ridiculous how it happened twice for touchdowns — the exact same issue repeated.
Their punter kept kicking crap punts. There was one play where they had about 15 defenders on the field as they desperately tried to substitute to combat Tennessee’s up-tempo style.
Everything was a mess. The final score was 44-6 but it felt like 144-6.
Tennessee were everything Kentucky weren’t. Their defense, smelling blood, smothered them at the LOS and attacked in numbers. Their offensive scheme is so fine tuned it could win them a National Championship — that’s a distinct possibility now. They have two high draft picks at receiver and their right tackle should be getting mocked in round one.
The quarterback Hendon Hooker will continue to get a ton of praise and hey, he deserves it for the success he’s having. Yet there are so many easy wide open throws for big touchdowns. The scheme and talent makes his life so easy — half-field reads, instructions pre-snap from the sideline, guys running downfield with no defender in sight. In this game Tennessee specifically ran to the line after every play to stop Kentucky substituting and it worked. They couldn’t keep up. I’ve never seen a team use tempo to this extent before.
Levis can only dream of such an environment.
I don’t really blame him for pressing and making mistakes as things spiralled out of control. I’m not sure who would’ve succeeded at quarterback for UK in this game, against this opponent. That’s not to excuse or overlook Levis’ flaws — which we discuss as much as his positives. I genuinely believe though that it’s virtually impossible to take anything away from this game.
I still think if/when Detroit lands the #1 overall pick in the 2023 draft that they will view Levis as an ideal fit for what they want. Everything about his approach and profile fits in with the Lions and their staff.
Elsewhere, Running back Chris Rodriguez ran through tackles and collected yards after contact as per usual. He lacks cut back explosiveness and a second gear. He may have limitations in terms of next level upside but he’s fun to watch and his testing results will be important. He’s a bruising, physical, punishing runner.
I wrote about this last week but I think Tennessee duo Jalin Hyatt and Darnell Wright are destined to be high picks. They’re the best receiver and offensive tackle duo I’ve watched this season.
Stanford vs UCLA
Bruins running back Zach Charbonnet is a tremendous player worthy of at least a second round pick. He’s physical, shows great agility and quick feet to dodge tackles and he has the explosive traits you look for in a running back. He has amazing contact balance and ideal size. He continues to show he has value in the passing game.
I had him in round two a year ago and was surprised he returned to UCLA. He’s been a blog favourite for 15 months. He’d be a tremendous player to pair with Ken Walker as a highly dynamic 1-2 punch.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson was beaten up in this game, played through the pain and laboured throughout with an injury. Even so — he still threw the ball well and made gains with his legs when the situation called for it.
I’ve been a DTR fan for a long time too and although he lacks amazing physical tools and size — his creativity as a runner is an X-factor and he doesn’t have a weak arm. If nothing else, he would be a very useful Tyrod Taylor style backup.
Jake Bobo had a bad drop in the game but was also UCLA’s leading receiver. He’s big, athletic and generally trustworthy. I think he lacks the change of direction skills and suddenness of some of the receivers in this class but even so — he’s had an impressive season and warrants serious NFL consideration as a big WR3 type.
Tanner McKee continues to struggle on Stanford’s hopeless and directionless journey to persistent mediocrity. In every game this year he has 2-3 throws that flash genuine talent but then there’s also a lot of dross. I still think he looks too much like Mike Glennon for my liking but like Glennon, I think someone may take him in round three.
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