Month: September 2024 (Page 1 of 3)

Instant reaction: Seahawks lose in Detroit with depleted defense

September 30, 2024 /

Well, that was a superb effort by Geno Smith, Ken Walker, Ryan Grubb and the offense.

The defense? A different story.

Losing Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy, Boye Mafe and Jerome Baker was always going to make life very difficult. Julian Love exiting with a thigh injury in the second half made matters even worse.

Still, it would’ve been nice to see the replacements show a little bit more than this.

Most people anticipated some issues, especially against an opponent with such a strong offensive line and a nice arsenal of skill players. I’m not sure many anticipated Jared Goff having a 100% completion percentage at 16 yards per completion.

Awful tackling on a David Montgomery 40-yard catch-and-run, a Jared Goff touchdown reception and a 70-yard saunter for Jameson Williams immediately after a hard-earned Seahawks touchdown drive tilted things towards farcical.

The score never got out of full control thanks to Seattle’s brilliant offensive display. Yet it also never quite felt there was a moment to get too excited. Any moments of joy were so fleeting, because after all but one of the Seahawks’ offensive series’, the defense would just hand points to the Lions.

It really showed the importance of being strong in the trenches. Detroit bossed things at the line of scrimmage on offense. They had a lot of success with their D-line too — and it’s to Geno Smith’s credit that he still found a way to make so many plays.

On Smith, this was a sensational performance. Without him, it would’ve been a tragic blowout. The Seahawks put so much on his shoulders to try and keep up with the Lions’ easy scoring rate. With even a tiny bit of help from the defense, he might’ve orchestrated a cracking victory. The only blemish was the penultimate redzone series, which was a bit of a mess to end with disappointment.

Ken Walker has played two games this season and has shown in both that he has legit superstar potential. His combination of power, speed, change of direction and rapid acceleration is reminiscent of the greats at his position. If he can stay healthy he’ll be a wow player.

It would’ve been interesting to see this match-up with Seattle’s defensive line at full strength. It also has to be mentioned how banged up Detroit are too. They were missing key defensive players plus their great center, Frank Ragnow.

Mike Macdonald gave a passionate ‘next man up’ message in the week. He’s seen how difficult this is going to be with a weakened D-line. The money spent on Leonard Williams, for starters, definitely seems well invested tonight. He would’ve hoped from more from the fill-ins, who missed an opportunity here. The Seahawks still need to pad out their depth in the next off-season.

A loss isn’t the end of the world. They kept fighting right to the end, which is to their credit. A victory would’ve been outstanding but it never felt that realistic that the Seahawks would march into Detroit and win with so many key absentees. The key is to try and get the missing players back as soon as possible.

If that can’t happen, the Seahawks might have a few issues in the coming weeks against opponents with similar high-scoring offensive units. At least, though, they’ve shown they can be really potent on offense.

Curtis Allen’s week four watch-notes (vs Detroit)

September 30, 2024 /

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

At 3-0, Mike Macdonald has the Seahawks accomplishing something that not many other teams have done — winning games while breaking in an entirely new coaching staff with new systems on both sides of the ball.  To be sure, growing pains have been present. Yet skill, hard work in practice and determination are compensating for those challenges and then some.

It’s very easy to look at their first three opponents and dismiss their success as the result of a soft schedule.  What can easily be overlooked is the rate at which this team is beginning to gel.  Whenever Macdonald is asked to comment on their success so far, he quickly pivots to the truth. They have a long way to go as a team and he has them not resting on their laurels of success but using that as a springboard towards future growth.

Based on everything we have seen in training camp, the preseason and the first three games, I think we can trust this coaching staff to identify and work on their issues in a progressive manner.  The status quo will not be tolerated.  The message is being sent loud and clear — success is built on hard work and an understanding that attention to detail and keeping the fundamentals in front of you are core principles they will adhere to.

Which brings us to this week’s matchup against a familiar foe:  the Detroit Lions have been a regular part of the Seahawks’ schedule.  This will be the fourth year in a row they will play each other.  And 2025 may be the fifth, depending on the division place both finish in.

The Seahawks have won all three games.

We have consistently identified ways to beat this Lions team (click here and here).

It begins and ends with containing this powerful offense – particularly in the run game – while taking advantage of a middling defense to apply scoreboard pressure and forcing Jared Goff win the game for them.

Fact:  in every Lions’ loss from 2022 on, their run/pass mix on offense has favored the pass.

Fact:  in only two of the Lions’ 25 wins in that same stretch have they asked Goff to throw more than 60% of the time.  And one of those wins?  Week 11 last year against Chicago?  They needed to throw to get back into the game in the fourth quarter because… Goff had thrown three interceptions, one in each quarter.

Side note:  How Goff has parlayed his performance into a 4-year extension with $170 million guaranteed is Exhibit A that the NFL has gone crazy for Quarterbacks.

Anyway, at the risk of copying and pasting once again, here is our previous explanation of why they need to rely so heavily on the running game, and how to exploit that vulnerability on defense:

Their offense is working because they consistently call for Goff to get rid of the ball as soon as he possibly can.

The Lions have found something that works with Jared Goff’s limited abilities.  Hand it off to your explosive runners and let them move the ball downfield.  Run some play action with designed pass plays that are one-look and throw and let them gain yards after the catch with their athleticism.  Take the snap and throw quick slants.

it is remarkable how much he telegraphs his intentions by not even looking at anyone but his primary target.  He practically must throw to his first read for the play to be successful.  Anything else is an adventure.

If that is the case, the strategy is obvious.  Get the corners up on their men.  Press them, take away the easy catch and run and make Goff hold onto the ball and think.  Safeties and coverage linebackers, read his eyes.  I would be comfortable gambling by instructing the defenders to break on his first read and make him pay for his lack of vision.

Make Jared Goff beat you.

Watch a textbook example of this:

The coverage team is doing their job.  Goff is having to wait and scan the field before throwing.  His quick target is not immediately open.  His feet get a little happy, and he throws to Sam LaPorta.  Riq Woolen has read his eyes and with his track-star speed, closed the gap quickly and stepped in front of the throw and returned it for a touchdown.

To get to this point, the defense needs to contain the running game, and the offense needs to score to apply pressure.

The most complete example of this strategy was delivered by the Baltimore Ravens in their Week 6 beatdown of the Lions.  This is how the first eight series went:

Ravens: Touchdown in 4:23 (4 runs, 3 passes)

Lions: 4y Run, Incomplete Pass, Sack, Punt

Ravens: Touchdown in 5:46 (4 runs, 7 passes)

Lions: 2y Pass, 4y Run, Incomplete Pass, Punt

Ravens:  Touchdown in 3:57 (1 run, 7 passes)

Lions: 3y Run, Sack, 13y Pass, Punt

Ravens: Touchdown in 2:56 (4 runs, 2 passes)

Lions: Seven passes, no runs, ball turned over on downs

In a quarter and a half, the Ravens had completely short-circuited the Lions’ game plan on offense and made them one-dimensional.  They cruised to an easy 38-6 win, with Tyler Huntley getting a series at the end of the game.

Can the Seahawks pull off something similar?

They can.  Perhaps not to the extreme degree that the Ravens did.  But it is within their grasp.

How?

Take Advantage of the Lions Defense

Detroit’s defensive backfield has performed poorly so far this season.  Cornerbacks Terron Arnold and Carlton Davis are among the league’s worst-performing players (in 44 targets they have zero interceptions and one – one! – pass defensed among them) and excellent safety Brian Branch has appeared on the injury list with an illness and may not play.

The Lions reached the NFC Championship game last year, but that is more a tribute to their coaching and their ability to implement their offensive game-control vision than their defense.  They were in the bottom-10 of the NFL in points allowed and passing yards allowed.

Their rushing defense was a top-five unit, and while anytime you can be in the top-five of any statistic, that is good, it is a bit of a red herring.  Their ability to run their offense successfully set up the opponent to have to take to the air to keep up.  They faced the third fewest number of rushing attempts and were rarely tested on the ground.

With Ken Walker back and Zach Charbonnet coming off a good week against the Dolphins, the Seahawks should be able to use the rushing attack to balance out the offense and keep the ball out of the Lion offense’s hands as much as they would like.

They have done it before, more than once.

But what about the passing game?  Aidan Hutchinson stands as the solitary obstacle in the Seahawks’ way to running their game plan however they like.  He already has 6.5 sacks and is looking like he is putting together a case for Defensive Player of the Year.  How can the Seahawks keep him in check, particularly when he lines up the bulk of his snaps against the Right Tackle?  With the Seahawks running out their third choice there in Stone Forsythe?

Look to the game last year, when Hutchinson played 68 snaps against Forsythe and Jake Curhan and did not record a sack.  How did they do it?  Have a look at the tape.

You will see the Seahawks offense using every trick available to them — double-teaming him with a tight end or running back, having a tight end chip them on their way to a route, dialing up quick passes to get rid of the ball before he can get home, and moving the offense away from his side of the field.

They also occasionally got creative.  Watch 3:22 where they bring in three tight ends and double him with Dissly and Parkinson, while Geno Smith throws to Noah Fant for a nice gain.

To be fair, Hutchinson still had an impact on the game.  At 3:33 you see him bullying Curhan right into Smith’s lap and making him throw the ball away (followed by Myers wildly missing a field goal try).  At 11:16 you see him as a key part of the pressure that has Smith taking a very ill-advised sack late in the game that allowed the Lions to kick a field goal and force OT.

Hutchinson is going to have his plays.  But the Seahawks need to make sure they have him covered for the bulk of the game, as they did last year.

If Ryan Grubb and Scott Huff can make this happen, the game should be well in control.

Keep the Lions Running Game in Check

This would appear troublesome, with the Seahawks missing some of their best run defenders to injury in Leonard Williams, Boye Mafe, Uchenna Nwosu and rookie Byron Murphy tonight.

But consider this point from earlier this week:

Dre’Mont Jones and Jarran Reed are ready to play.  Derick Hall has taken a big leap in his second year.  Mafe didn’t play last season, Leonard Williams was not yet a Seahawk and Edwards and Taylor have been replaced with Johnathan Hankins, Mike Morris, Trevis Gipson and (likely) Tyus Bowser.

At Linebacker, Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks have been replaced by Tyrell Dodson and (possibly) Jerome Baker and a backup combo of Tyrice Knight and Drake Thomas.

That team last year held the Lions to 3.78 yards per carry and one explosive run.

Can this year’s team hold to that standard?  Or do even better?

Remind me – who coached that Ravens defense that kept the Lions clamped down last year and constantly gave the ball back to their offense?

This game will be the biggest test yet of Mike Macdonald’s defensive acumen.  Playing without four key defenders along the line will require quite a bit of his scheming and play calling skills.  Also helpful is the Lions will be without Center Frank Ragnow – one of the NFL’s best – for this matchup.

We saw this game before the season started as a test of two good teams.  Injuries have altered that somewhat.  It is now a test of good coaching and scheming.

And so, this game will show us another element of this new Seahawks regime.  Can they win a tough game on the road against a quality opponent without a good chunk of their best players available?

I would not bet against them.

Maryland quarterback Billy Edwards Jr has my attention

September 26, 2024 /

I recently sat down to watch Maryland receiver Tai Felton and couldn’t help but notice the person throwing him the ball. Billy Edwards Jr might be the best kept secret in college football.

Granted, his only real test so far was a close loss to Michigan State. I’d also suggest he’s unlikely to declare for the draft after just one year as a starter. He transferred from Wake Forest after a redshirt freshman season and has been waiting his turn behind Taulia Tagovailoa since.

Even so, I wanted to write a short piece on him today and note he’s one to watch for the future.

Edwards Jr has a sidearm release but he’s able to whip the ball out with great velocity. He’s constantly attacking the middle of the field — throwing layered passes with the necessary arm strength. You see him throw from the left hash-mark to the right sideline with ease. He can also throw with touch downfield, he knows when to hang a pass in the air to create a 1v1 opportunity or a fade to the back corner of the endzone and he’s very capable of throwing downfield in the 40-45 yard range.

I’m really focusing on third down conversions this season and this was an area Edwards Jr really impressed me. He had one 3rd and 13 seam throw against Michigan State that was an absolute bullet placed with great accuracy between a crowd of defenders. He regularly showed poise in the pocket, kept his base and delivered to move the chains. Maryland are 36/66 on third and fourth downs this season — 54.5% conversions. Several of these conversions were 3rd and at least mid-range yardage with Edwards Jr getting the job done.

He plays smart football. He’s very willing to go through progressions and check down wisely to take what a defense offers. Yet he’s not overly conservative. There’s plenty of evidence in four games this season of him throwing into tight windows, putting a bit more on passes when needed to fit the ball into his target. There’s one redzone throw against Virginia arrowed in between two defenders for a touchdown that really makes you sit up and take notice. Edwards Jr holds the safety to the left with his eyes then comes back over the middle, delivering with great accuracy and velocity between the two defenders thanks to the space he created. He does try to be creative and he’ll take a few risks to be a playmaker.

He’s athletic enough to be used as a runner — although his running style is a bit reckless and he takes too many avoidable, heavy hits. He has 10 total touchdowns and two interceptions in four games. He’s leading the BIG-10 in passing yardage.

He’s listed at 6-4 and 219lbs with room to add a little more weight if needed. I’ve listened to the way he speaks and it’s impressive. He’s determined, carries a bit of a chip on his shoulder, speaks well and you can imagine him being a lead voice in a locker room.

Here’s the Maryland Head Coach on his quarterback:

“I think he has emotion, and he’s one of those guys that he’s on both sides of the aisle, per se,” Locksley said. “Like, you’ll see him hanging out with the running backs, and then he’ll be with the big [offensive] linemen. He kind of gets along with everybody, and to me when you think of a quarterback, it’s a person that elevates the level of his teammates. Always say he has to have the mind of a coach and the skill of a player, and those are characteristics Billy showed early.”

I think he’s an impressive looking quarterback. I’m eager to see more and will be tracking him in the coming weeks.

You can watch his performance against Michigan State here:

As for his top target Tai Felton — he’s very savvy with his routes, shows good body control and an ability to adjust to the football in the air. His YAC ability is impressive. He has enough size and the only thing to be uncertain about is his pure speed. That will determine how early he goes — but he’s a player who could easily find a day two home in the draft.

Scouting notes week four: Michigan pass rusher is unstoppable, Kaleb Johnson in round one & more

September 24, 2024 /

Josaiah Stewart dominates USC

Michigan might have abandoned the passing game but at least they can rely on a decent collection of NFL defenders to be competitive. Nobody was more impressive than Stewart against the Trojans. He was unstoppable — collecting two sacks, three TFL, four QB hits and a forced fumble. However, these numbers barely highlight just how dominant he was on Saturday.

It’s one of the best pass rushing performances I’ve seen in a long time. He consistently screamed off the edge, had the two tackles struggling to get even a hand on him and USC had to shift their protection throughout the second half to try and stop him wrecking the game.

Stewart lacks ideal size and length (6-1, 240lbs, 32 1/4 inch arms) but he’s just so dynamic attacking the edge. He plays with a relentless motor and has surprising power. Watching him I couldn’t help but think he was a fit for the Mike Macdonald Seahawks.

He transferred from Coastal Carolina in 2023. As a true freshman he set the single game program record with four sacks and collected 12.5 for the year (another school record). His sophomore season wasn’t as productive — recording just 3.5 sacks. He had 5.5 in his first season for Michigan.

Stewart rose to prominence last season because he was the player who famously bull-rushed top-10 pick JC Latham into Jalen Milroe on the final, decisive play to win the Rose Bowl, despite a +100lbs weight difference:

If he was 6-5 and 250lbs with 34 inch arms he’d be on a trajectory to be a very high pick. The size will cost him because there are so few players with his physical profile who turn into top NFL rushers. Yet there’s just so much to like. Almost every rep is attacked lack it’s his last. He will challenge tackles with his physical playing style and I suspect he’ll do a better than expected job vs the run as a consequence, just through sheer attitude.

Look at him set the edge on Saturday, this is a grown-man rep:

He consistently sacrificed his body against USC to run full pelt into the tackle to drive him backwards and impact the running game. It’s an unorthodox but effective jolt-back style.

Yet he’s not just uniquely powerful and committed for his frame. There are genuine bursts of suddenness off the edge:

He’s going to need a wide-alignment to be effective. With his lack of length you’re unlikely to see him engage and rip through contact. Stewart needs an angle and it could limit his role to that of a situational edge or rotational 3-4 OLB. Yet a creative schemer could put him in various positions to succeed. I also wouldn’t bet against him playing way beyond his size limitations.

For example, despite his lack of length he did show an ability to straight arm the left tackle, keeping his frame clean to peak into the backfield and remain in the play. Plus his smaller height enabled him to win leverage battles as he got underneath the left tackles’ pad level to drive him backwards on one snap, forcing an incompletion.

The other thing working in his favour was a dangerous inside move. He really only had two forms of attack and he’ll need to be more varied. Yet whenever he darted to the inside shoulder of the tackle he was so quick. You could see how terrified both tackles were, struggling to defend the edge and the inside rush. Stewart absolutely hammered Miller Moss on one inside move and as a consequence the throw was nearly intercepted (it should’ve been).

He had an edge rush from the right hand side that ended the first half. Again he was too quick and the right tackle couldn’t get hands on him. It was a very easy win based on pure quickness off the edge.

His sudden agility movements are reminiscent of top edge rushers. Stewart can glide in his sideways shifts to dodge blockers and remain clean.

USC began the third quarter constantly shifting protection to help whichever side he attacked. They chipped him with the RB, pulled guards to support on his side and they had the TE help with a double team. They knew he was wrecking the game.

The first USC touchdown happened on a snap when he was being spelled. There was a noticeable difference when he wasn’t on the field.

I think the pick-six from Moss thrown to Will Johnson was provoked by the fact Stewart was in USC’s head. He was closest to Moss, too, when he made the ill-fated throw after another dynamic inside move.

He beat the running back and right tackle to force a red zone fumble at the end of the third quarter. He was too fast, again, for both. Two blockers vs one rusher made no difference.

Stewart ran an inside rush in the fourth quarter where the right tackle was just hanging on for dear life — he was too powerful to be stopped and ran through the block. On the same drive, he forced an incompletion on 3rd and 7 with yet another dynamic interior rush — easily beating the left tackle.

With 34 seconds remaining — guess what? Another dominant inside rush to force an incompletion, this time with the game on the line. He ended the contest, just as he did against Alabama last season.

As I said, he was unstoppable in this game. He received a 95.8 PFF grade for the performance and is currently PFF’s top graded edge rusher for the season (92.9). Having listened to his interviews — he’s mature, well spoken and appears to have have high character marks. This isn’t surprising given the way he plays.

Stewart might not be ideally sized but there’s no doubt in my mind that you can win a lot of games with players like this on your roster. He’s a warrior, a perfect fit for Seattle and would be a tremendous addition to the rotation. Even with other needs on the roster, I’m inclined to say ‘find a way to get this player’.

Iowa running Kaleb Johnson adds to deep RB class

Ashton Jeanty at Boise State is quite rightly getting most of the draft buzz at running back but it’s an increasingly strong looking group. Arkansas’ Ja’Quinden Jackson has caught my eye, Nicholas Singleton and Trevor Etienne are destined to be effective pro-runners and I’m a fan of DJ Giddens. The depth stretches into players like Raheim Sanders, Kyle Monangai and several others.

However, Iowa’s Johnson flashed so much on Saturday against Minnesota, I think he has the makings of a NFL star. He has everything.

He’s ideally sized at 6-0 and 225lbs with sprinters speed. If he finds a lane he’ll accelerate and reach top speed quickly and he pulls away from defenders. He can get skinny to run through gaps in the line.

This play ended in a 40-yard run:

You want to see running backs run through contact in order to gain extra yardage and turn good runs into great runs. Johnson leads all running backs in college football with 444 yards after contact. For comparison, Omarian Hampton who is second on the list has 394 yards, with Jeanty a distant third with 354.

The Boise State runner leads the NCAA with 6.32 yards after contact per attempt, with Johnson second on 5.41.

What about missed tackles? Johnson is ranked first with 30 in just four games. Jeanty has 26.

Explosive runs? Again Johnson leads college football with 18 runs of 10+ yards (Ja’Quindon Jackson, who I highlighted last week, also has 18).

He was as unstoppable against Minnesota as Josaiah Stewart was against USC. Iowa only managed 62 passing yards in the game and still won 31-14 despite a totally one-dimensional attack. It was down to Johnson’s 206 yards on 21 carries, including three touchdowns. He already has 685 rushing yards and nine touchdowns for the season. His yardage total unsurprisingly leads college football with, again, Jeanty in second place on 586 yards.

The one area where both runners aren’t particularly impressive is in the passing game. That might say more about Iowa than Johnson’s ability to be a receiver — but he only has seven catches on seven targets for 26 yards. Jeanty has five catches on eight targets for a meagre 12 yards.

While most people are starting to consider Jeanty a realistic first round possibility — I think Johnson’s right up there too. They are the two most talented pure runners eligible for next year. I think they both deserve fringe first round grades and at a time where the running game is becoming more important due to the frequency with which we see two-high safety defensive schemes — they could both easily go in the first frame next April.

Other scouting notes

— Week four was not good for injuries. LSU’s Harold Perkins tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season. Michigan’s Will Johnson left the game against USC with an injury. Raheim Sanders at South Carolina barely featured and top tight end Colston Loveland didn’t play. Earlier in the week we saw talented cornerback Shavon Revel ruled out for the season with an ACL injury too.

— It was another underwhelming day for LSU offensive lineman Will Campbell against UCLA. I remain unconvinced by people projecting him as a high first round tackle and personally see him as a day two guard. It’s since been revealed he has sub-33 inch arms, increasing the likelihood that he’d need to kick inside.

— LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier again played well against UCLA. He showed sensational accuracy on a downfield throw at the start of the second quarter. He looked off the safety and then threw a perfect dime to the right sideline, hitting the receiver in stride with such precision it looked like he handed the ball to the wideout:

Every week I’m impressed with the level of anticipation he shows when throwing. Look at the screen grab below. He’s off-balance with the center virtually standing on his toes in the pocket. He throws to the crossing route (see the circled receiver) with perfect accuracy right down the hash marks, letting him run onto the football for the completion. It’s not an easy throw due to the lurking defender positioned just in front of the midfield logo:

Once again Nussmeier was great on third downs — LSU converted 10-15 on the day. You could visibly track how he manipulated defenders with his eyes by watching his helmet stripe. He finished 32/44 passing for 352 yards, three touchdowns and zero turnovers.

I’m incredibly impressed with the technical level he’s showing. Very few quarterbacks play this way in college. He’s producing results on a much less talented LSU roster this year, too. How teams judge his physical upside will determine how high he goes but I wouldn’t rule out a high grade by some. He’s not a weak-armed player — he just doesn’t have a cannon with amazing scrambling ability. Make no mistake though — he is very talented and deserves more attention.

— Some quick thoughts on two other quarterbacks from week four. I watched Penn State and Drew Allar versus Kent State. He reminds me of Mike Glennon. They have the same frame, throwing style and they were both a bit gangly and ungainly on the move. Max Brosmer at Minnesota had a mixed day against Iowa but he did have some nice throws over the middle. He lacks consistency at the moment. He didn’t get much help in the game and his second pick was a tipped pass. His first was a poor late throw although on replay a hideously bright setting sun appeared to be shining right in his eyes. Brosmer isn’t going to be a high pick but he is a player I’d be fearful of if he landed with the Rams or Niners.

— This is shaping up to be a good tight end class. Penn State’s Tyler Warren is one of my favourite players to watch so far. He’s incredibly dynamic as a pass catcher and is clearly Drew Allar’s favoured target. On Saturday he also threw for a touchdown and took a direct snap before running for 17-yards. I think he’s a fringe first rounder and a likely top-45 pick. LSU’s Mason Taylor continues to shine. Both players are plus blockers and they will carry a lot of NFL appeal. Taylor is the son of Hall of Famer Jason Taylor (ex-Dolphins pass rusher) and his uncle is Zach Thomas (former Dolphins/Cowboys/Chiefs linebacker). It’s also good to see Iowa’s Luke Lachey back on the field. He’s a tremendous blocker in the run game and can be a good pass-catcher too. I really like all three players.

— Two Iowa offensive linemen have caught my eye. Center Logan Jones is an elite athlete with the kind of traits and size that have worked in Scott Huff’s scheme previously. He had a tremendous run blocking game vs Minnesota. Gennings Dunker is also very athletic, physical and a classic Iowa lineman who could be a very useful guard at the next level.

Finally, please support Puck Sports and check out my latest show below reflecting on the Dolphins game — if you can also like the video that’d be great:

Curtis Allen’s week three watch-notes (vs Miami)

September 22, 2024 /

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

The Mike Macdonald era in Seattle is off to a 2-0 start. While they haven’t buried their opponents in those first two games, winning while still experiencing NFL growing pains signals encouraging progress.

Today’s game against the Miami Dolphins was supposed to be a sizable step up in competition for the Seahawks — an extremely talented AFC team with aspirations of a deep playoff run.

Things obviously haven’t gone to plan for the Dolphins. Another concussion to Tua Tagovailoa and his subsequent placement on Injured Reserve has left a hole that threatens to sink their season.

Also, what was one of the NFL’s best pass-rushing teams last year has seen a sizable drain in talent. Christian Wilkins left for Las Vegas, Bradley Chubb is still out and recovering from a torn ACL and Shaq Barrett decided to retire.

Yet they still feature a lot of firepower – particularly on offense – and that must be respected.

This game is an important marker for the Seahawks to see where they stack up against the rest of the NFL — not to mention a top-flight tune-up for next week’s game in Detroit against the Lions.

The individual matchups will be a treat to watch — D.K. Metcalf versus old rival Jalen Ramsey, Zach Sieler against former teammate Connor Williams, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill against Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon, Jaelen Philips against Charles Cross.

The Seahawks need to win more of these matchups than they lose. Or at least hold the majority of them to a draw.

What areas of this game do the Seahawks need to excel in to go 3-0?

Control the First Half with the Offense

In the Mike McDaniel era, the Dolphins are a fantastic 16-2 when leading at halftime and an awful 3-14 when trailing. While it is true that most teams feature a winning record when leading after two quarters and a losing record when trailing, not many are as extreme as the Dolphins.

This is more so when you consider the Quarterback now running the offense is a sizeable step down in capability from the starter, which hinders their ability to generate points quickly.

While a lot of attention is rightly being given to the shift in Quarterbacks, the offense can help their defense tremendously by applying scoreboard and game clock pressure with a balanced attack by Geno Smith and the running game.

The Dolphins have not yet found their stride in two main aspects of their defense yet and the Seahawks must take advantage.

On run defense, Miami was a top-10 unit last year. They conceded only 3.8 yards per carry and only gave up 100 yards on the ground in six of their games in 2023. This year? 4.5 yards per carry and they have given up 100 yards in each of their first two games.

They really miss Wilkins and Jerome Baker on their run defense.

Fan confidence in the Seahawks’ running game is not high after a poor performance against the Patriots and the unsettling news about Ken Walker’s oblique injury troubles. However, a recommitment to the running game, with the evolving chemistry on the offensive line, should produce some opportunities to feature a more balanced offense this week. That simultaneously takes some pressure off Geno Smith to carry the offense and helps the defense do their job.

In pass rushing, Miami has seen a stunning drop in effectiveness so far this season. Last year they were one of the NFL’s best, finishing at #3 overall in sacks (56) and pressure rate (27.7%) without very much blitzing at all (21.5% of the time, sixth lowest). A good chunk of that effectiveness fed off their ability to keep the running game in check and force obvious passing situations. Combine that with an elite quick-strike offense, and you have a real force.

This year? In their first two games they have been among the league’s worst. They have three sacks (which projects to 26 for the season) and a mere 15.6% pressure rate. This is despite a considerable uptick in blitzing (31.1%).

Geno Smith knows how to handle heavy blitzing. He has been blitzed on 33.7% of his drop backs this year and has consistently burned them. He is completing 75% of his passes for 9.6 yards per attempt and a 101.2 passer rating.

Where can he attack this defense in the passing game? An area that has proven to be a weakness for Miami is passes to Running Backs and Tight Ends. The Dolphins this year are conceding 7.6 yards per catch to Tight Ends and a whopping 12.4 yards per catch to Running Backs.

This is not new. They were among the league’s worst in these two categories last year as well. Yet strangely, their first two opponents have not gone to that well very often.

The Seahawks need to attack this weakness liberally this week. They have excellent pass-catchers in Noah Fant, Zach Charbonnet and Kenny McIntosh. A couple of well-timed passes to beat the blitz and flip the field could really help them take charge of this game.

Protect the Perimeter on Defense

In Tua Tagovailoa’s first two years as an NFL Quarterback in Miami, he was steady but unspectacular for Head Coach Brian Flores. He missed some time with injuries and was not making a strong case to be the Dolphins’ long-term franchise Quarterback.

When Mike McDaniel became the head coach in 2022, Tagovailoa exploded with a season that garnered some MVP votes.

What happened?

Acquiring Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle maturing into a star certainly helped. But something else drove his success — throwing over the middle of the field. In his first two seasons, Tagovailoa avoided throwing in the middle like his life depended on it and it severely limited his game.

McDaniel changed that. He deployed plays that took advantage of his Quarterback’s elite processing and decision-making. As a result, his entire game improved. He added more air yards to his passes due to being able to make defenses respect his ability to attack more of the field. Slants and short post routes were thrown before pass rushers could get anywhere near him. Therefore, Tagovailoa has been the Fastest Gun on the NFL in getting the ball out in recent years, and as a result his pressure rate faced was miniscule.

That is the context we need to discuss defending backup Skylar Thompson.

He is a vastly different Quarterback than Tagovailoa.

He will rarely throw over the middle of the field.

Have a look at the two target charts from his starts in 2022:

The field between the numbers looks like a barren wasteland. Only a fraction of his attempts attacked this area.

That was 2022. Has he improved in this area two years later? The preseason says no. A video of his every throw in preseason this year shows that passes intentionally designed to go to the middle of the field were only made on approximately 10 or so of his 61 throws. Most were awful, some were disastrous and should have been or were intercepted.

That is not to say that Thompson will never throw over the middle today. In fact, you can probably expect a throw or two to try and surprise the Seahawk defense. In whole though, success on defense will mean using the sideline as an ally and pressing Wide Receivers to disrupt their routes from the numbers to the sideline and using a deep safety to keep an eye on anyone who gets through the net.

McDaniel will very likely call a section of the plays he did for Tagovailoa — those snap-throws to the perimeter to De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert and the two Wide Receivers and let them create with their speed and vision. It’s a Miami staple and it works very well for them.

Edge defenders like Devon Witherspoon, Jerome Baker, Tyrell Dodson and K’Von Wallace will be especially important in defending these types of plays. They will need the vision to see the angles, the speed to get behind blockers and the sure-handedness to bring these runners down before they get a head of steam.

This is also true of the run game. Yes, Miami does run in between the tackles. But they love to have sweeps and end-around runs that give their speedy backs room to operate. The cornerbacks will need to be alert to get off Wide Receiver blocks and show determination to tackle these runners for a minimal gain. Both Woolen and Witherspoon have been graded very well by PFF in run defense so far this year. This will be a very intriguing chess match.

The other area that Thompson differs from Tagovailoa is he uses his legs much more. He hangs onto the ball far longer than Tagovailoa, simply because he does not have his processing speed and confidence. Asking him to stand in the pocket, scan and deliver a strike is not his strength.

He is faster and has a strong arm to throw on the run. Pass rushers will need to pursue him with vigour and limit his time to find a receiver. We all saw this in Seattle with Russell Wilson, once he escapes the pocket, Wilson was very dangerous. Thompson has some of that to his game. The problem for him is, it is too big a part of his game, and at times he can be inaccurate which negates the strength. He also prefers to retreat to the perimeter to buy time rather than go forward in traffic.

My guess would be Mike Macdonald will take another pass this week on revealing his Bag of Tricks on defense, and deploy a standard tack when the backup is in: flood coverage and make him beat you. How is this different than years past, where players like Colt McCoy would dice the Seahawks up? This team can get pressure with four. Inside pocket pressure from the likes of Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy will be nicely supplemented by the speed of Boye Mafe and the power of Derick Hall, with some Dre Jones mixed in for good measure.

That is not to say Macdonald will not dial up a package in a key moment.

Like the offense, the early part of the game is key. Thompson typically has started slow and rusty – particularly with his accuracy on throws of any length – and had a difficult time finding a groove. If they can help the offense have a quick start, that ratchets up the pressure to keep up and Thompson just is not built for that.

In his 2022 playoff game start, he was 7 for 21 with an interception in the second half of the game. The defense had created three turnovers but Thompson was just not able to take advantage.

As talented as Miami is, this should be a game the Seahawks can have in hand and control.

Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan is intriguing

September 20, 2024 /

One of the best feelings when scouting quarterbacks is seeing a player not protected by his scheme. High-percentage throws, often in the form of extended hand-offs and wide-open deep shots, are common. You end up judging players based on non-translatable environments. When you see a player doing something as simple as throwing over the middle with consistency into tight coverage, it’s virtually heaven.

Memphis’ Seth Henigan has shown he can do this. It was enjoyable watching his tape. I want to run through my thoughts based on what I’ve seen in his three games so far this season.

This is his fourth year starting and his experience shows. There were multiple times against Florida State where you could see clear progression through reads. It’s rare that you’ll see a player go to a first, second and third read and eventually pull the trigger over the middle. Henigan does that.

His first handful of throws in the game showcased a NFL style skillset. His internal clock would tick as he eyed up a couple of reads over the middle before checking down. He took off on a roll-out before throwing for a first down on the run. He’d take a three-step drop, set his feet and throw to a covered defender over the middle because that was the best option, delivering an accurate pass with timing over the middle (no hitch) to get the seven yards on first down the defense was offering. He dropped in a nicely thrown 45-yard downfield shot to the right sideline for a big play, noticing the opportunity with a 1v1 outside.

Henigan diced up Florida State all afternoon, showing total command of his offense and an ability to attack different areas of the field. I just keep coming back to the way he was throwing to covered receivers but his timing and accuracy was sufficiently good that he was able to make completions over the middle of the field. This is what you need to do in the NFL.

He also showed poise and improvisation when needed. On one play at the end of the second quarter his intended target was a quick throw to the outside receiver. I think he anticipated the cornerback blitz but perhaps didn’t expect the defender would get to him as quickly as he did and then jump to block the throw, rather than go for the sack. Henigan pumped to deceive the corner, moved to his right to buy a little more room and then completed the pass for a nine-yard gain on first down.

One of the things I’m really zoning in on this year is how a quarterback handles third downs. I was really impressed with Henigan here.

With 18 seconds left in the first half he turned a 2nd and 20 into a 3rd and 7 with a layered pass over the middle in-between defenders, then figured out the flaw in the coverage on the next play to get a first down — setting up a scoring opportunity as time expired.

He started the second half with a laser throw into tight coverage over the middle to convert a 3rd and 5 situation. The pass needed extra zip and perfect accuracy and he delivered. He capped this drive with a 3rd and goal play-action touchdown — throwing off-balance with incredible anticipation and accuracy, guiding his pass to the receiver’s right arm as he fell backwards to avoid the covering defender.

The play of the game was a 3rd and 13 play with 4:05 left in the third quarter. He stepped up to avoid a blitz off the left edge, side-stepped to avoid his own lineman running into him and had to re-set in the pocket. He did all this while keeping his eyes downfield. With very little back-lift he then threw over the middle for a conversion:

These are plays you can look at and imagine happening in the NFL.

Against North Alabama you saw similar plays — throws into tight coverage, completed by standing tall in the pocket, throwing with base and timing and delivering on target for chunk yardage. He was credited with five ‘big time’ throws in the game, was able to get his opponent to jump off-side on more than one occasion and again exploited 1v1 coverage on the outside with another 45-yard touch pass.

With the rest of the season to come — he already has 84 career passing touchdowns for Memphis (26 interceptions). He has added nine rushing touchdowns. This is the kind of career production and experience teams love and it shows with the confidence and understanding he plays with.

I like his mechanics. His release is sufficiently quick and he can throw with touch. His ball placement both on an intermediate and deep level is good. He doesn’t have an absolute cannon of an arm but he understands when a throw needs a bit more mustard to beat a coverage. He’s not a slouch in the pocket and can move around when needed. Certainly he can throw on boot-legs and roll-outs and his pocket movement is good.

Ceiling will be the big question mark. He is not a big powerful gunslinger who can launch it downfield 60-yards and I’m not sure he ever will be. Neither is he a massively creative force to extend plays and as a runner it’s very much on a ‘needs must’ basis. Henigan is technically impressive and I can definitely see him appealing to the Shanahan tree teams looking for someone to run their scheme. I don’t think he’s limited to these systems though — and there’s enough on tape to feel like he has sufficient promise to be drafted with the idea of seeing how he gets on with the step-up in quality.

Henigan is a player I want to keep watching this season. He’s unlikely to end up being a high draft pick but he’d be worthy of a Senior Bowl invite to show what he can do. He might not be physically brilliant enough to project as an eventual NFL starter but a player like this definitely deserves a chance in the NFL. He was a lot more intriguing than I expected.

At the moment I have Quinn Ewers and Shedeur Sanders rated as legit first round talents (although both players carry question marks — injuries for Ewers, baggage for Sanders). Carson Beck is a fringe first round player for me. Garrett Nussmeier, on limited playing time, has a tentative day two grade although I need to see more starts to confirm that mark. I think Cam Ward and Jalen Milroe deserve to be graded in round three currently, due to their physical tools, upside and character — but both players are technically flawed and will need to show progress over the coming weeks in that area. Then I have eight players graded in a day three tier, including Henigan. It’ll be interesting to see if any of that group can show sufficient progress in the coming weeks to make a jump.

« Older posts

© 2025 Seahawks Draft Blog

Theme by Anders Noren — Up ↑