This is my first attempt at a Seahawks seven round projection. There are two central thoughts in this mock that I wanted to focus on:
1. I think John Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback
2. I think acquiring more stock will be seen as a priority
On the first one, I have a strong hunch about this. I think Schneider’s lukewarm words about Geno Smith at his press conference were revealing. I believe he has been eager to draft a new signal caller for some time, even during Russell Wilson’s time in Seattle.
Now that he is in charge I think his vision for the offense will be explosive plays, getting the most out of D.K. Metcalf and an aggressive, point-scoring unit. I know people are talking about Mike Macdonald, as a defensive coach, perhaps wanting to resort to running the ball and adopting a conservative style. I don’t agree. Baltimore had a lot of success because their offense was aggressive, they regularly played with a lead and that significantly helped the defense. I suspect that will be the mentality in Seattle.
I think there are quarterbacks in this class who will appeal to Schneider, while also acknowledging that the range for players like Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler is unpredictable.
On the second point, the Seahawks don’t have a second rounder because of the Leonard Williams trade. They do have two thirds. For the last two drafts, Schneider has had a treasure trove to work with due to the Wilson trade. I think he will seek to get more stock this year by moving around the board.
If there’s a can’t-miss player at #16 that could change. I think players like Jared Verse, for example, fit that profile. Assuming he and others like him are gone, I think the likelihood of moving down from #16 is strong. This is a good draft in the first four rounds. They have a number of holes and need picks to fill those holes with affordable talent.
The state of the roster pre-draft
In this projection, I have the Seahawks re-signing Leonard Williams to a big extension. Jordyn Brooks signs a one or two-year deal to try and bolster his stock under the leadership of the man who elevated Patrick Queen. I also have the Seahawks retaining Noah Fant, given the paucity of tight end alternatives in the draft and free agency. Drew Lock is retained.
Jamal Adams is cut to save money and there are other savings, outlined in my piece a few days ago. This includes trading Geno Smith before March 20th. I have them dealing him to the Steelers, who must know Kenny Pickett isn’t the answer. They’re already talking about trading for a quarterback. The Seahawks have very little leverage in negotiations due to the March 20th deadline, when his contract locks in to Seattle’s cap. That is the latest they can deal Smith to get the $13.8m saving. As such, they can’t get much more than a day three pick — with the Steelers giving them a fourth rounder (#120).
You might argue that’s not much compensation but if Schneider’s preference is to move off Smith and draft a quarterback anyway, getting anything in return would be a bonus. He does also turn 34-years-old this year.
The seven-round mock
Round 1 — #16 — the Seahawks trade down
I have the Seahawks moving down nine spots in a deal with the Green Bay Packers. They deal the 16th pick to Green Bay for the 25th pick and 58th pick. The trade makes sense per the trade chart, because Seattle’s pick costs 1000 points and Green Bay’s two picks cost 1050. The Packers also have two second rounders so they can afford to be aggressive. They move up because the mid-first round is going to be the back-end of where the top offensive tackles come off the board. This is a key need for the Packers and they can’t afford to wait. They move up for Olu Fashanu or Joe Alt — two left tackle prospects who are a bit over-hyped by the media and could be available at #16. Or, they could target Amarius Mims.
This trade gets the Seahawks back into the second round.
Round 1 — #25 — the Seahawks trade down (again)
Yep, we’re back to those days when people used to complain about the Seahawks constantly trading down. There’s method behind the madness though. In this scenario, Schneider has had his eye on a group of players all along at a particular position. They’re all still on the board, so he feels confident moving down four more spots to get further stock.
The Seahawks deal the #25 and #150 picks to Detroit for #29 and #92. Per the trade chart, Seattle’s two picks are worth 751 points and Detroit’s two picks are worth 752 points. Essentially, the Seahawks swap a fifth rounder for another third rounder. Given the draft class drops off after round four, this isn’t a big issue. For the Lions, it enables them to aggressively jump Arizona and Buffalo to get the defensive back they want — with a run ongoing in this range.
So far the Seahawks have completed two trades, gaining #58 (round two) and swapping #150 (round five) for #92 (round three).
Round 1 — #29 — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
I think Schneider might have interest in both of the big-name PAC-12 quarterbacks but Penix Jr is the one with the arm talent to be a crucial difference maker and ’tilt the field’. He is far from a flawless prospect and I’ve written many articles detailing some of the issues, including after watching him live. However — you can’t avoid the fact that he has a golden arm comparable to the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, two players Schneider absolutely wanted to draft.
If it’s Seattle’s intention, and I think it is, to feature an explosive, aggressive offense, Penix Jr fits the mould. Yes, he will have stretches where the short/intermediate accuracy is off and drives will stall. Yet he will also be a threat to be a big play on every snap. If you can produce a complementary running game to bring the safeties up, you could have the makings of a top-tier explosive offense.
The fact that the Seahawks are interested in hiring Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator adds to the intrigue. It’s not a given they’d seek to pair them together but it’s also pretty easy to make the connection. Penix Jr and Grubb had a good working relationship at UW.
I think the Seahawks could potentially be interested in Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler too, perhaps even J.J. McCarthy (although I think his physical limitations might be an issue for Schneider). I get the sense most Seahawks fans want to focus only on the trenches with the early picks but having studied the draft class in great detail on the whole, there are plenty of options stretching into round three. I would suggest the difference between the mid-to-late first round O-liners and the day two O-liners is not that significant, it’s an excellent class. And while I really believe it’s vital to invest in the offensive and defensive lines, it’s also critical the Seahawks find a long term quarterback option.
I will probably look at a scenario down the line where the Seahawks trade down a bit from #16, take an O-liner, then maybe move up with a newly acquired round two pick to get a QB.
Round 2 — #58 — Kris Jenkins (DT, Michigan)
This is the pick acquired from Green Bay. I don’t expect the Seahawks to go chasing Baltimore’s big name free agents, in part because they don’t have the cap space to do so. I think instead they’ll set out to find their own versions. Jenkins could be viewed as a potential Justin Madubuike alternative.
The two players share a lot of similarities. Madubuike was physically brilliant and a blog favourite. He ran a 4.83 forty and a 1.73 10-yard split, highlighting his impressive upside. There were some concerns about his consistency and size (6-3, 293lbs) and he lasted into round three, despite many projecting a second round range.
Jenkins shares a similar profile. He’s extremely athletic and reportedly is capable of running a 4.33 shuttle and a 7.16 three-cone (Madubuike ran a 7.37). He’s undersized having mostly played in the 280’s and 290’s until this year where he topped 300lbs. His play on the field has at times been underwhelming and inconsistent. However, as with Madubuike, the talent is there.
Jenkins is of good character and that is a big factor for the Seahawks. Mike Macdonald will know all about him from his Michigan days. His dad and uncle both played at a good level in the league. I watched a video recently (see below) with his uncle Cullen Jenkins and he had a Seahawks helmet in his house, randomly, signed by Walter Jones, Mack Strong and others from that Super Bowl XL era. I wonder if Steve Hutchinson, another former Michigan man from that group, might have good intel on Jenkins through the family.
An alternative to Jenkins could be Clemson’s Ruke Orhorhoro. If Jenkins measures with shorter arms, Orhorhoro (who has great length with 34-inch arms) could be a viable option instead. He’s 6-3 and 288lbs and plays with a lot of power, quickness and intensity. He was a more impactful player in college but arguably has a lower ceiling.
Round 3 — #78 — Zak Zinter (G, Michigan)
This pick is why I don’t feel that passionately about having to go O-line in round one. Zinter is, for me, one of the absolute finest linemen in the class. I thought he was the best guard I saw in 2023, playing with an old-school mentality. You’re not going to be wowed by any testing results here but he’s going to get the job done up front. Watching him, I thought he screamed +8 year starter (at least) in the league.
He’s available here because he suffered a bad injury against Ohio State. By all accounts he’s recovering well from a broken leg and is expected to be back before next season. That will likely impact his stock and could mean a top-50 talent lasts into round three. If that happens, some team is going to get a stud. He is a plug-and-play guard who will elevate an offensive line in year one. Yes, he’ll need to go through all of the medical checks before the draft. However, everything from his brawling style of play, the way he attacks opponents right off the snap, loves to get up to the second level, can mix it up in the running game and tie down his side in pass protection makes Zinter a home-run pick.
I think he’s potentially as good as any interior lineman in this class and he could be available at a discount price. Furthermore, he is a high character player loved by team mates. Plus, it’s another Michigan player. I suspect both Macdonald and Hutchinson will know all about him. And he’s played with Olu Oluwatimi.
Round 3 — #81 — Malik Mustapha (S, Wake Forest)
Mustapha might not have Kyle Hamilton’s size but his playing style is ideally suited to a similar role in Macdonald’s defense. Here’s what I said in yesterday’s article:
I was wowed when I watched tape of Mustapha the week before the Senior Bowl and immediately placed him on the board as my highest ranked safety with a second round grade. He has an outstanding mix of range, quickness, hitting ability, power and he’s versatile enough to play different roles at safety (free, strong, nickel). He doesn’t have Kyle Hamilton’s size (5-10, 210lbs) but I believe he can fill that void if Macdonald is looking for that type of player. He needs to sharpen up schematically to stick at free safety because he does give up some plays. Initially I would suggest putting him at strong while he develops, in place of Jamal Adams. Yet the potential is there for Mustapaha to be a top-tier safety. From a character point of view he is first-rate with an engaging personality, he was a team-captain and he would perfectly fit Seattle’s desire for a high-character individual. He could be available in round three and quickly work into a starting role.
Mustapha is one of the more underrated players in the draft.
Round 3 — #92 — Nathaniel Watson (LB, Mississippi State)
This is the pick acquired from Detroit. In this projection I have the Seahawks re-signing Jordyn Brooks. He needs a partner though and Watson, for me, is a strong candidate. Here’s what I wrote about him yesterday:
On tape, he’s an ideally sized physical machine — capable of playing the MIKE or WILL. He can drop in coverage to take away throwing lanes but he can also fly to the ball-carrier and play sideline-to-sideline. Watson, if given an opportunity, will absolutely hammer opponents and possesses the big-hitting skills Seattle’s defense has missed in recent years. There’s a good example on tape from last year where he chases down and blasts Bryce Young. There’s an old-school style to his play, with the traits of a modern day linebacker. He can play in attack-mode as a pass-rusher and had 10 sacks in 2023 and totalled 21 sacks in his last three seasons. He led the Mississippi State defense and was the one to make the calls on the field and adjust. Watson is a heart-and-soul player very capable of developing into an impact player and leader. If you can get him in the third or fourth round range, he could be a steal. If he runs a good short-shuttle and 10-yard split, watch out.
As with Mustapha, Watson is one of the more underrated players in the draft.
Round 4 — #118 — Austin Booker (DE, Kansas)
I’d suggest Darrell Taylor’s days are numbered in Seattle. He’s shown flashes of pass-rushing quality but I’m not convinced he’s disciplined enough for Macdonald’s scheme and he’s been a liability too often. Keeping him as a RFA feels unlikely. If they move on, though, they’ll need a replacement. Macdonald might prefer to bring a veteran in — he had great success with Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy — and that would open up the possibility for the Seahawks to return to their ‘picking a receiver in round four’ ways. If not, Booker would be a strong option here.
There are lots of things he has to work on. He needs to fill out a bit and get stronger. However, if we’re using the Ron Wolf approach of focusing on what a player can do, here’s what he is. Firstly — he has great length (34 inch arms) and there’s evidence on tape of him bench-pressing tackles to keep his frame clean and keep his eyes on the ball-carrier, disengaging and making plays vs the run. He can win with speed and bend off the edge — flashing incredible balance to round tackles. He has quickness and occasionally wins with power. There is plenty to work with here.
Round 4 — #120 — Dylan McMahon (C, NC State)
This is the pick acquired from the Steelers for Geno Smith. The Shrine Bowl brought McMahon to my attention and I produced this write up after studying him closely:
He showed choppy feet to keep setting and anchoring against interior rushers. He consistently got his hands inside and in the right spot and because he’s a smaller blocker (6-2, 295lbs) he won many leverage battles. Then, with his strong back and connected feet, he just controlled. There were occasions during scrimmage where he released up to the second level and sealed running lanes. He also did a good job turning opponents off the snap. His angles were good and he’s scrappy — he’s just a pain in the arse to disengage from. McMahon can reportedly jump a 32-inch vertical so he’s explosive. He speaks well, again — typical of an intelligent, determined center. I’ve got him in round three with the expectation he could be available later at a bargain price.
McMahon has the potential to be as good as the bigger names in this center class, which is deep. I think he could quickly compete with Oluwatimi to start and you’d have two strong, young options competing to be the long-term starter.
Round 6 — #193 — Ainias Smith (WR, Texas A&M)
There are electric qualities to Smith as a receiver but the main reason I’m including him here is as a return man. It’s far too long since the Seahawks had a legit threat returning kick-offs and punts. Smith would be an immediate contributor in that regard, with the chance to work his way into seeing some playing time as a receiver down the line.
Round 7 — #232 — Jack Westover (TE, Washington)
The Seahawks are going to need to find some depth at tight end and while Westover might not be the most conventional NFL TE, he consistently showed a clutch gene during his time at Washington. Penix Jr frequently made him work for key conversions and he always delivered. A team-first type who could develop a role on special teams quickly and act as a third-down option.
Full draft class
R1 — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
R2 — Kris Jenkins (DT, Michigan)
R3 — Zak Zinter (G, Michigan)
R3 — Malik Mustapha (S, Wake Forest)
R3 — Nathaniel Watson (LB, Mississippi State)
R4 — Dylan McMahon (C, NC State)
R4 — Austin Booker (DE, Kansas)
R6 — Ainias Smith (WR, Texas A&M)
R7 — Jack Westover (TE, Washington)
I think all of these players could contribute quickly with multiple having the potential to be plus starters. Let me know your thoughts on the haul in the comments section.
Finally, I posted a video on my channel discussing the offensive coordinator search. Check it out by clicking here.
Rob you spoil us so much with all this great content.
I would absolutely support trade downs to get more picks in the 2nd and 3rd round range.
This also feels like a great combo of BPA with need, we add beef to both lines, get a QBOTF, a dynamic safety, along with LB and tight end help. Would be A+ for me.
Welp we can cross Ryan Grubb off the list.
https://x.com/NextRoundLive/status/1755347164140581034?s=20
This OC search has been a major letdown so far.
Yeap, maybe we hire the Detroit guy ( my favorite )
Yeap, maybe we hired the Detroit guy
Of course, they would never be able to say it, but I really wouldn’t be surprised if they “interviewed” him mainly because they are interested in Penix and JS wanted to pick his brains about him.
I suggested Tanner Engstram day one and if he gets it — I’d be very cool with that
But if they aren’t going after him, I’d tend to agree
I would definitely be cool with Tanner Engstram, but I just cant get behind Chip effing Jelly. Like u say in your video hiring the Jelly man would pour a huge bucket of ice water on the Macdonald hire, and would undo a lot of the goodwill JS garnered by hiring him (in my eyes).
I agree with your overall sentiment, but why the body shaming?
Rob first off I enjoy all the work you put into Hawk related stuff all year long for the rest of us fans. I do some research but nothing like what you do!! Kudos! My take is wait and see how JS handles the whole show. I believe there is a plan that has numerous adjustments as needed when things change. I do not think young inexperienced choices are crossed off his “want list” so everything is in play. I am excited about the program again, loved what PC brought the fans and city and will always be grateful but it was time for new energy. Keep up the great work Rob
I mean, it has been a major letdown in the same way the HC search was a major letdown up until Macdonald was hired.
Now it might be one of Engstrand, Kelly, Bieniemy. Not inspiring for our offense IMO. Can they expand the search?
Great article Rob, I just don’t like Penix … But great draft, one question … Zinter could play left guard ? Cuz I think we need someone there ( I think he played RG ) … I love Jenkins and Zinter btw
I don’t know if we are going to draft a QB but yes we need a new one this year or next one … I think Quinn Ewers and Drew Allar ( he just looks like Allen lol ), one thing is real, we are getting excited with this team AGAIN
I’d just draft Zinter and then let it play out. See who fits where
Looks like Allen? Have you seen him play? Allar is a statue and is more Christian Hackenberg than anyone else. Furthest thing from Allen.
I agree with you!! Great Draft but I would substitute Penix with Jeremy Moussa (Florida A&M). This kid is special!!! They could take him as a 6th rounder!! John crushes the OC choice it will be fantastic!! Also get Kemarii Averett (Bethune-Cookman!!! I was surprised that he was not picked last year. Key pieces for a Super Bowl run!!!
Appreciate all the work and reasoning that goes into your boards and your articles, Rob. Thank you for your tireless efforts.
That said, Penix in two straight mocks is an unintentional (?) troll job for those of us that see Penix as a bust just waiting to happen. His arm may be Allen/Mahomes-esque but he certainly hasn’t shown the creativity or the ability to move like those two. Factor in his collegiate OL giving him loads of time he won’t have in the NFL, the left handed transition for the offense and the injury history, if we go Penix in the first (even after a trade down), I anticipate we’ll truly regret it. One man’s opinion.
After all the Rattler talk, I’m surprised you didn’t have JS taking him with the 2nd rounder they acquired and going OL/DL with the late first instead.
Rob,
Great stuff. One question: if Payton Wilson is still on the board at #29, would you personally rather get him there and try to get a QB in the 2nd round?
I suppose this comes down to whether you’d want to roll the dice on a QB still being there at #58, and, whether the talent gap between Wilson and Nathaniel Wilson is large or small.
I doubt the QB’s last
I really like Wilson but I’d need to know the confidence on the medial checks to take him that early
I’m leaning this way. Williams, daniels, maye, nix, penix….I think go day one. Even if teams have to get back up to the bottom of round one.
There are by my count five teams that need or should draft a qb before Seattle. Included: jets in the should category.
I always love Rob’s Mocks. The explanation and Logic behind each pick is always spot on. A great read during my lunch break. Thanks Rob
Great article Rob, I just don’t like Penix, I don’t like anything at all, but a very good mock draft CONGRATS, one question, could Zinter play as LG? I think I played RG in Michigan… I love Jenkins and Zinter.
I don’t know if we will choose a QB this year or next but WE NEED A FUTURE QB, next year we all know that Quinn Ewers apparently is very much liked by JS, even so I wouldn’t rule out Drew Allar, it’s not like he had a great season ( 1st and is 19 years old), I say this more because of the type of QB that John likes, Drew Allar looks like Josh Allen physically
Good stuff! Did you walk through all of the picks or kind of slot guys where you think they’ll go?
I’m curious who might be an alternative if say, Zinter went a few picks earlier.
Love the idea of having an actual punt returner returning punts!
UDFA QB alert…… Anyone know that Carson Bradley from USA is Gus Bradley’s son?
Yes.
In this projection would you have them resigning Lock?
Yes
You mean he can play this coming fall, right?
Should be.
Yes
Quite the haul. The day two range looks fantastic.
Not sure if it will be so much about having interest in the qbs or the best of the rest.
Have a feeling that nix will go before we are even on the board. This is not a penix v. Nix post. Just as I travel around the internet I see a lot more talk about Nix than Penix.
Re coaches:
I’ve wondered if Joe Bleymaier or Brian Fleury might be the targets. The former is one I would not have blinked at if he were brought in for HC interview.
I’m not terribly worried about the wait, as the job is OC, not HC, but still – decisions (Like Geno) are to be made sooner, not later.
Olson is still in house and he has handled OC duties prior, Lal would be another I would consider tasking with the job.
Sanjay Lal is hated in Jacksonville for the job he did there
I’m not even sure I want him to stick around as receivers coach
Hadn’t heard that with the Jags…
I thought you’d be all for 2 British Coordinators.
Best available… not BBA (best Brit available) 😉
I posited Bleymaier in the last thread and got crickets. Passing coordinator for KC carries some cache but you never know how much of KC’s “it” is on Reid.
Seems like if they sign Grubb it’s a very big hint that they’re going for Penix.
I absolutely love this draft. I love the two Michigan players you selected. What a haul this would be. One can dream.
Grubb made an announcement that he is Alabamas OC.
I’m going to say it. I’m a little concerned about trader John moving down so much.
I understand more is more.
I also understand that Seattle has not often done well moving down.
Do any if you all doing mocks just stick and pick?
I am going to be absolutely gutted if Chip Kelly ends up being our OC. Talk about being stuck in the past and the counter opposite of innovative. Please no!!!
I will be gutted too, and not chuffed.
Can you imagine… What if it’s Kelly at OC, and they draft JJ McCarthy, a slow receiver “with great hands that runs great routes”, and the heavyset fellow from Texas?
Gag, but I suppose there would be fans of that. And they’d say Chip Kelly will know how to unlock Jake Bobo’s true potential.
Anyway, kidding aside I like this mock draft, and the horizontal board is my bible. What a strange draft though, and the QB’s scare me.
I’m already seeing Kelly equals more bobo
Re Mock, not in love with Penix in the first.
It feels a little like a reflexive draft grabbing the last toys off the shelf before they are gone. I’d prefer to see them try to grab their top player at certain positions, which may be unrealistic.
A solid draft. It would leave me wiyh some questions
Not sure why you think that. This was a very calculated use of the board, getting the guy JS wanted after two moves down. He didn’t make the pick in a reflective way it was planned
I think it is a great draft. Really solid thought experiment.
I’m of a few minds about this class:
1. I’m just not sold on any of them. Of the ones we could maybe draft. There’s a lot of misses in recent times and I think they could all be potentially.
2. I can see a scenario where five go before Seattle picks. Yep. Crazy as it is having such bad classes recently means teams are still very desperate.
3. With trading back. Shrewd if it happens but I see Rams and Steelers right behind us who could well take a qb. Additionally I count Giants, Jets, and Atlanta with high 2nd round picks that may want to get back into the first round if they don’t take one with their earlier picks.
All this to say the following. If Penix is a true QBOTF, not the qb of a contract, then perhaps there is a case to be made to just take him there at #16. As draft nerds we love the options but from a team perspective hitting on a real QB is immensely more important than extra picks.
If you get him later with a ton of extra pieces you are a wizard.
If you trade back and ANY qb goes before your new pick and they hit and Penix ( or any qb really that John picks) does not….oof….better hope a few of those extra picks are multi time probowlers.
Would love, love, love picking up Penix, but I do wonder if he’s a guy that is going to rise up boards with so many QB needy teams out there, and after listening to The Athletic GM pod with Mike Sando and Randy Mueller, Mueller was praising Penix quite a bit. Is he someone you see actually as a raiser as the process goes along or is his age a determent?
As noted in the piece — I think his range (and Nix’s/Rattler’s) is vast, can’t remember three QB’s who could go anywhere like these three
Solid mock. This would be a great scenario. I would pass on Penix because of the injury history and maybe lack of him being much of a threat to run. Either Nix, JJ or Rattler would be better Imo. I think it would be a matter of preference.
I also wanted to thank Rob for the hard work he is putting into this blog for the current offseason. I want a young QB on this roster as much as anybody, but am really anticipating them beefing up the interior of both lines.
With the OC appointment seeming to drag on, and it looking like Grubb isn’t leaving Alabama, I am wondering if Chip Kelly is a serious candidate for the Seahawks. He seems to have a decending career arc and falling into an OC job in the NFL would seem lucky. Can he be considered a prize candidate when is success was with Oregon, (and maybe during his ealry tenure with Philadelphia), over a decade ago?
Thank you
Wouldn’t Penix need to come with an upgrade at RT depth? Perhaps move Lucas inside? That may affect the draft and FA strategy.
Well maybe Lucas comes back and/or they sign a good backup
Yes. Penix needs a good OL. So does the running game. It’s fundamental.
Good Choices Rob, it’s a nice balance of players . Glad you pointed out the need for a return man. Mostly just give me hopes that the Seahawks can paper over some holes with good players.
I can’t take anymore Deejay Dallas returns that have a 0% chance of scoring. I really hope they can find someone dynamic for 2024.
I’m just happy if DJ Dallas will catch the ball and not muff it. It would be great to find someone who could gain a few yards after the catch.
I’d be happy with “Captain Fair Catch “ Bryan Walters
https://youtube.com/shorts/T9QVdARCfUA?si=MzgUAuX07Cca1CHe
*cough*
Let me counter that YouTube short with this one…
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/zVFm53KrVAE
He did that a lot last year. I would be a very happy 12!
Ya, your guy is electric. Would be a great dynamic that we haven’t had in years.
The Ravens beat the Rams on a walkoff punt return TD this year. Having that kind of threat would be awesome.
I need DJ Dallas to never touch the football again in a Seahawks uniform.
THANK YOU, Rob, for the updated horizontal board and mock draft. Great stuff as always.
I also listened to the Youtube video regarding the Offensive Coordinator search. I can’t help but thinking there is someone on the Niners or Chiefs coaching staffs that the Seahawks want to talk to before making the job offer. With most other OC positions being filled, I don’t see why it hurts waiting a few more days to get the chance to speak with someone that interests you. Just a thought.
Anyway…get to feeling better soon!
I’ll do backflips off the couch that Grubb is heading to Alabama, if it lessens the likelihood that Penix ever suits up for the Seahawks.
Based on our draft position and odds that we’d trade the house to move into the top 3, it feels like a reach on Nix/McCarthy, moving up from the 3rd/down from the 1st to take Rattler or punting the QBOTF search until next year. The last option is incredibly depressing but a better one than betting on a deep reach. With much to do on defense with limited cap (even after cuts/trades), our ceiling is likely 6 or 7 wins next year, anyhow. Probably picking Top 10-12. Slightly less expensive to trade up from there. 🤷🏽
I think you’re going a bit OTT on the QB’s
It wouldn’t be me if I didn’t. 😂
Honestly, until we know who our OC will be, we’ve no idea what kind of skills our QBOTF will need to possess, so it’s really premature to assign what characteristics we’d target, anyhow. It’s just been so long since we’ve had any hope of a new leader rising up and putting the team on his shoulders in pursuit of the ultimate prize.
I want Daniels soooo much and know it’s nearly an impossibility. No way JS mortgages the team’s draft future for a quick fix trade up, when we have so many needs. Rattler is my fallback. Nix and Pratt are my “well, I suppose we’re trying” options.
John Schneider is still the one drafting the quarterback. We more or less know what he wants.
Apparently Cullen took the Michigan DC job.
The latest is he’s delaying any decision on his future until after the SB and people believe that is indicative of an intention to stay in the NFL
Meanwhile Wink Martindale is being linked with Michigan and will interview with them
So their search is ongoing
Thanks for the clarification, seeing some mixed reporting!
Nice conversation with Penix on pft:
https://youtu.be/MD1A8BWxlkk?si=wxtnd-kh4BnGc-Ht
Dude always has fun vibes.
Liked his comment about byron murphy.
Sign me up for this draft. Love Westover as a late pickup. Guy made clutch catches every week.
Can we cut Dissly then?
There can be only one (tight end from the UW).
It’s a fun mock. I have doubt about Penix too – but drafting a QB at #29 isn’t the same as drafting on at #5 – if he’s not the guy you can move on much more quickly, and it doesn’t cost the team 2-3 yrs.
I know the lines matter – but have to say I LOVE the idea of upgrading our S and LB positions. I know we’ve come to see them as overvalued by the past regime – and fair enough – but to me they are also where defenses find their core toughness (LB) and playmaking (S), when you have the right guys in those roles.
Cool that you picked Westover at the end too – that guy seemed to make every clutch 3rd and 6 reception over a season of close games, and never dropped a ball.
Slight disagree.
Pick five or pick 29. It will still be a 2-3 year proposition.
I might be a bit late with this, but I think that the reason Mike Kafka’s Mom thinks he is so boring is because of the jokes.
https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/kafkas-joke-book
“Why did the chicken cross the road?
It had been crossing so long it could not remember. As it stopped in the middle to look back, a car sped by, spinning it around. Disoriented, the chicken realized it could no longer tell which way it was going. It stands there still.”
***
“What’s the difference between a lawyer and a catfish?
Nothing after Albert’s inexplicable transformation. Every breath was agony.’
Would rather get the center from Oregon and finally have premier option there for years!
Would someone remind me? I know that Olu Olu had small hands for a center (8 5/8″) but is he also left-handed? Who am I thinking of if he is not?
There was a report earlier today that Dan Cullen could be hired by the Seahawks as the DC/DL coach. Seems like an impressive get, with decent amounts of experience within the NFL. He has worked with both LB and DL over the last few years. They are waiting on the SB to make the announcement (?)
Note: Cowboys DLC Aden Durde has also emerged as well in the last 24 hours as a candidate.
None of the reported OC candidates blow my doors off … but I’ll trust the process (JS/MM) and I’m confident we will get clarity by the middle of next week. The whole process has been refreshing, because everyone brought into the building so far seems like a good fit.
hi Rob
thanks for this amazing work. The research and insight offer fans to get emotionally attached to these prospects (love it!)
i am torn in trading down
which would you rather have blue chip pass rusher like Jared Verse at 16 or or trade down getting your mock QB DL LB?
Love the draft and the whole off season plan. We will really have young talent everywhere in this scenario. Hope we can grab a G in Free Agency as well if money allows. Maybe we can save some money by moving on from Reed and Dissly (bring back Parkinson as well).
Reed?
Jarran Reed?
You hope they cut him? To save $4.4M?
Think they might want more of a traditional Nose but honestly I thought thered be more cap relief.
I am personally not sold on Penix but what do I really know with some seasoning maybe he becomes something great, my hope would be he does’nt see the field for at least a year and ideally a couple. Outside of him I love the rest of the picks, would be a really solid haul.
With Kafka being promoted to assistant head coach that ship has for sure for sure set sail and it makes you wonder if they have’ t lost out on a number of OC’s that they really had thier eye on and now are reeling a good bit and now how do you offer any of the leftover guys any decent sized/length contract? My guess is they don’t but then you’re either taking a real long shot on a guy who’d be ok with a lesser deal or you pony up and pay a more established guy that you may have to part ways with very soon because he’s just not good enough. I guess we’ll see how it all plays hopefully shortly.
Hi Rob,
Great work as always and this is when I start to learn about the college players with your insight (among others) and doing the mocks.
I might go other players, but the way your did your mock and not sticking at #16 makes more sense to me.
Look forward to what you have coming next for us!
Just had my first mock draft with a simulator (nflmockdraftdatabase.com). Totally a blast.
First the trades. Seattle trades with Cincinnati
Cincinnati receives Seattle’s 3rd round pick 78
Seattle receives Cincinnati’s 3rd round pick 80
Cincinnati’s 7th round pick 234
Cincinnati’s 7th round pick 254
Cincinnati’s 3rd round pick 2025
Cincinnati’s 4th round pick 2025
Cincinnati’s 5 round pick 2025
2nd trade Cincinnati
Seattle trade was with Philadelphia.
Philadelphia receives Seahawk’s pick 80.
Seattle receives picks 97, 169, 170. Plus 2025 5th round pic and 2025 6rd pick 2025
3rd trade
San Francisco receives Seattle’s pick 97
Seattle receives picks 98, 132 plus San Francisco’s 7th round pick 2025
———————————————————————————————————
The picks
16 . Jackson Powers – Johnson; Center, Oregon
81. McKinnley Jackson; Defensive tackle, Texas A & M
98. Junior Colson; Linebacker, Michigan
118. James Williams; Safety, Miami
132. Malik Mustapha; Safety, Wake Forest
150. Spencer Rattler; QB, South Carolina
169. Jarrian Jones; RB, Florida State
170. Andrew Coker; OT, TCU
193. Tyrice Knight; LB, UTEP
232. Brevyn Spann-Ford; TE, Minnesota
234. Frank Gore Jr.; RB, Southern Mississippi
251, Tanor Bortolini; IOL, Wisconsin
——————————————————————————————————–
Comments
I used draft simulator to make these picks.
Don’t think McKinnley Jackson will be on the board at 81
Spencer Rattler will not be on the board at 150
Don’t see Cincinnati, Philadelphia and San Francisco making these trades. But they offered me these trades and so I took.
But is was fun
Special thanks to drucker for the website.
Thanks for the work Rob. Really like this draft. QB or no QB the best part to me is you’re strengthening the team in the middle on both sides of the ball which I believe is badly needed. Plus you have the Hawks taking Zinter and thus fulfilling my man crush.
A question about him: how does he compare to Bitonio when he was coming out? I know you loved him too.
No way I draft Penix after he has had 3 major knee injuries and is an older draftee.
We have to improve the O Line.
End of story
And in this mock draft they did improve the O-line
You’ve fallen into the trap of thinking ‘improving the OL’ can’t happen without spending the first pick on it
The health of Penix’s knee will come down to medical checks at the combine — you or I don’t have information on the health of his knees
He’s also as old as almost all of the other quarterbacks that will be available to us. So that isn’t really a sticking point.
For concerns: injuries, yes. Age, no.
We also have to find a long-term solution at QB. $32M Geno isn’t the answer, and you can’t expect to luck into a Russell Wilson in the 3rd round again. Most quality QBs go in the first round, and if you want one, you have to pay the price. You can find o-linemen easily in other places. There is always going to be some other, bigger perceived need, but we can’t keep neglecting QB year after year after year.
Thanks Rob, good mock draft, really enjoyed it. Are you going to do some live drafts this year?
One of the concerns about the current roster is that there are no Blue Chip, Elite, or Game Changing type of players. DK and Spoon are close. I get wanting to trade back to
fill as many holes as possible. For the Seahawks to be one of the best teams in the NFL, don’t they need some dominant players at multiple positions? Should they be looking to trade up to chase the best players?
There has to be a blue chip player to draft at #16
They don’t have extra stock to trade up and they shouldn’t be mortgaging on a non-QB
There isn’t really anyone worth trading up for if it isn’t a quarterback. And if it isn’t Daniels, I don’t think it’s worth missing out on the high-end depth.
Earlier picks still have a better chance at finding a blue-chip player.
I get what you mean. Maybe Verse or Fuaga are there and you change plans.
Maybe they just get better scouting?
I don’t know if the players in Rob’s draft are blue chippers but it’s very solid. Seattle needs blue chippers but it also needs high quality players all over.
As far as OC. I have to admit that I have warmed up to Chip Kelly. Remember when Sean McVay. McVay took over the offense. He brought in an experience DC. Wade Philips.
MacDonald is 37 years old. But he is bringing in some experience coaches. Leslie Frazier. Kirk Olivadotti is another experience coach. MacDonald has never been a head coach before. If he has experience people that he can trust and use as a sounding board he is less likely to make mistakes. For me Chip Kelly knows how to run the football.
The question is what do you want in a offensive coordinator? What is your goal. What percentage of the time do you want to run the football. In that NFC championship game the 49ers could not stop the run. The Lions lost because they kept shooting themselves in the foot. One reason Ben Johnson is such a good OC is because he is planning ahead. When he calls a play many times he is going to use that play to set up the next play. You have to see the whole picture. Johnson is also very good at out guessing the opposing coaching staff. Right now no knows who the OC is going to be. It could be Kelly. It could be Engstrand from the Lions. It could be someone else. It seems like their first two choices ( Mike Kafka and Arthur Smith) are already off the board. We might not know until after the Super Bowl. John Schneider is keeping his cards close to his chest. https://za.pinterest.com/pin/475481673163536540/
Wade Philips was also one of the best DC’s in football at the time, so he was an incredible asset for Sean McVay. I don’t think there will be anything for MacDonald to take away from Chip Kelly in terms of helping him become a better coach. He needs to learn how to be a HC, so he has Leslie Frasier. He needs an offensive coordinator to do their job/be effective/not be anything for him to worry about. That’s it.
Chip Kelly has struggled to put good offenses in the NFL, on top of being just an ass to deal with. Players didn’t like him.
With an OC, I want someone that can game plan. That can make adjustments enough to be a weapon. Someone that knows how to use the talent that the team has. I don’t see Chip Kelly being that.
The only thing that Chip Kelly adds is a coordinator that won’t be in any danger of getting hired out from under you.
Without a bombshell trade, Williams or Daniels are out of reach. The other QBs all have their flaws — Maye, Penix, Nix, Rattler — there’s something to like about each of these and there’s things to be concerned about, but that’s how it will always be until we get a top 2 pick (unlikely to ever happen). We failed last year staying put at number 5 and being within striking distance, I suspect (hope) that was more Carroll. We really need to take a shot this year. We really going to roll with Geno/Lock again? Third wasted year in a row?
Do people really think Ewers will just fall into our lap next year and won’t be a top 3 pick? I’m tired of it’s always next year while the team fumbles about. John has to be tired of it too. I don’t know which QB he’ll like the most, but he needs to figure it out and go get him. If none of them floats his boat, then he needs to do something outside the draft. Sure, we’re drafting better now, but the post Wilson plan hasn’t been a shit plan. Sorry not sorry.
*has been
Agreed. People said the same thing last year. “We’ll just get Williams or Maye!” And now here we are picking 16th, and nearly every team ahead of us is desperate for a QB. Last year everyone said build the defense, and now here we are with an even worse defense with even more holes. I don’t understand the massive resistance to drafting the most important position in any sport, as if picking some rando on day 3 is somehow “safe”. There’s never going to be a perfect player drafted at the perfect time.
Which is why the Seahawks should dump Geno Smith , draft for both lines and defensive secondary, and use Ahlers as QB next season. Because the Seahawks need better draft position! They will never get a premium QB at this rate.
Sadly, it might be our best shot. In the sewers for Ewers!
Great job Rob.
Would love if everything fell that way.
Admit that Penix would be my third QB on that list.
Rattler, Nix, Penix.
If your mock do you have all three of those available and went with Penix just because of the bigger arm and the possible UW OC connection?
Based on some of the other misgivings you have mentioned in the past about a left armed QB I would wonder if there is that much separating Penix arm to have to make those kind of changes in a QB competition in camp.
I would never put Penix to Seattle due to geography — I just think the arm matters, it’s that good. But I can also see JS liking aspects of Nix and Rattler
I could watch the USC TD throw all day long on repeat.
https://twitter.com/CFBRep/status/1720963419728175602
https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1755466986170266091
JSN quote on Waldron.. yikes!
Daaaaamn! Faint Praise indeed! Hard to blame him, considering how little he was used the first half-season, after lighting it up in preseason. Apparently it wasn’t just the injury holding him back…
Love it. Professional way to say “enjoy your screen passes four yards deep, Caleb.”
Fantastic article and updated board. Tons of details about names we’re all gonna get familiar with, if not already.
I agree with the projected strategy of trading down, though I was a little surprised by the second. Pleasantly so.
It pains me to say this as a lifelong Husky fan, but I’m not into Penix. Loved him in college because he won games for my team. But I just don’t think he will find consistent success at the next level. I see Geno Smith 2.0 and we’ve been there and done that. Having said that, I recognize Schneider will likely covet his arm. Even so, there’s the lefty issue and according to the experts, that’s not trivial. Not knowing which of the other QBs in this talent tier are still available in this mock makes critiquing the Penix pick difficult. But I think I would prefer any of the others to Penix. I’m tired of rollercoaster offenses. But if it is Penix, I’ll shut the hell up about my doubts and cheer loudly.
The money in this mock is in that Third Round! Honestly, if we come away from this draft with Zinter, Mustapha and Watson, we’ve won. Speaking of the last two, I know the focus needs to be on the trenches. But we desperately need an injection of young, cheap talent at LB and S, and I don’t know that there are two prospects at this position who intrigue me more. Still love Payton Wilson, but watching Watson’s tape got me feeling a certain way.
A couple of questions on the Mock.
Can Zak Zinter play Left Guard? He’s only played Right Guard as far as I can tell. Whilst he’d be an upgrade on Anthony Bradford I imagine, where the Seahawks really need help is in the Left Guard position?
Would Will McDonald IV be a comp for Austin Booker? They have very similar builds and both seem to be quiet bendy? Marshawn Kneeland had a nice Senior Bowl I thought, the one guy who beat Taliese Fuaga that I saw. Perhaps a 3rd round option?
Kneeland would be a good get.
Every year I find myself wanting to trade up for someone when the better strategy seems to be trading back (especially with no R2 this year).
It’s going to take some serious discipline to not jump for Verse or Bowers if they slip outside top 10.
I hadn’t thought about Bowers until yesterday when I saw him mocked to Seattle. I liked it.
Seeing some angst about whether or not Zinter can play LG since he played only RG at Michigan and the hole on the roster is at LG (assuming they don’t keep Lewis).
Couple things…
Firstly, Zinter is a top OG. Left, right, don’t mean as much as his overall talent.
Secondly, he might be an excellent LG. Who knows? Draft him and find out in training camp.
And thirdly, there are some quality LGs in FA. If Zinter is indeed a RG only (and even if he isn’t), go sign one of Jonah Jackson, Dalton Risner or Jonah Jackson.
Point is, just go get the talent. If he’s there in R3, pluck him and worry about where he fits exactly down the road.
Yes. Keep it simple. “Go find the talent”. Of course, it means that you need to find the money too, and that will require some uncomfortable decisions to be made.
💯Blitzy
💯💯💯💯
I could not disagree more.
I think the Seahawks should draft Zinter, then start him at his natural position for a year. Then sign an aging, expensive and tired veteran and play him in Zinter’s spot and shove Zinter to another spot.
That way, we can allow the veteran to be comfortable. The young draft pick, who will be with us years after the veteran has long since retired, can have the position back after he’s proven he can be a pro and adjust to being jerked around.
(Good Lord I pray those days are past us)
Cable available for OL coach?
The only good thing to come out of that era is TEF, and it’s derivative, wTEF.
This comment just gave me PTSD
I cried.
So did Damien Lewis
How about instead of Zinter we draft a DT in the 6th, convert him to guard, and start him day one?
Ha! I put Jackson twice when I meant to add Ezra Cleveland. Guess I have a favorite ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Jonah Jackson hasn’t been a Left Guard for Detroit and as Cha insinuates below, messing Rookies around from their prefered (better) position on the O line hasn’t exactly worked that well in the past. Better draft them to play in their best position i’d say.
Risner is a Free Agent i could get behind Seattle signing. Lewis too, if he’s on around 4 million or less, though Lewis has always been a Right Guard, who can fill in on the left.
If Zinter falls into an spot where he’s great value, i’d be excited by the pick, even if he’s to compete against a Vet and Mr Bradford.
Rob, thanks for all of your excellent work.
Do you think Rattler would be available at #29 and that if he is, the Hawks draft Penix?
Or do they draft Penix because Rattler is unavilable?
I’m thinking Rattler is going to be their target, and they would draft him over Penix at 29.
With all this talk of Zinter, as well as our search for offensive staff, might I posit a former Wolverine and Seahawk HOF Guard to come aboard as our OL coach, once an OC is hired?
I mean, Hutch is RIGHT THERE, currently unattached to any other team and still has ties to the organization.
I don’t think he wants to coach. I think he enjoys the scouting that he does and the freedom for what he gets to do for the team.
I read recently that his business in Tennessee (if I recall) closed down in the last year and he was having/had some issues with PPP loan fraud. Perhaps he’d like to get away from all that? You never can tell with some folk but if JS asks Jody to offer Hutch a solid contract, it doesn’t hurt to proposition him.
Ah that would make a difference. Hadn’t heard any of that.
I will say, offer him a job. Every year. If he says no, he’s still a hell of a scouter (Lucas). If yes, he’s Steve Hutchinson.
With all of this talk of Zinter – I feel compelled to point out that he’s the worst kept ‘value’ in the draft. I think all 32 fan bases hope to land him late and 31 are going to be disappointed.
I think he’ll go earlier than projected. My question is how do guys like Beebe, Frazier, Van Pran, Haynes, Puni stack up? Are all of them worthy consolation prizes and is there a tier drop-off after those guys? OL scouting is not my thing, so it’s a genuine question.
By the way – LOVE the addition of having the most recent horizontal board and mock drafts available for quick access at the top of the page. Minor enhancement for a major upgrade in UX.
Bebe and Puni I like. I would have to go back and look at the video, but I think Haynes got worked over at the Senior Bowl. Van Pran? I wanted him in the first round before the Senior Bowl, now Rob has him as a round-two value. That seems fair. But he will probably go earlier since this is a thin draft at the top.
Thanks. I’m mainly going off of Rob’s board and other evaluators that I trust (short list).
I have a spidey-sense thing going on like the 2022 draft for ILB. R2 was deemed a bit early but then Troy Anderson and Muma went before our pick. Chenal and Tindal were still there, but we took Lucas. Then just before our early R4 pick both of the above went and the well ran dry on ILB.
I’m hopeful that some of those other names would be on a level with a healthy Zinter because I worry that he’ll go earlier than people are projecting. I mean Rob has him higher than Beebe and had Beebe going at #38. Feels like he’s destined to go in the 50-60’s range… which is fine if we feel similarly excited about some of those other names.
A well established team could definitely pick Zinter earlier than we hope. If he is in the road to playing next season or even start of next season I won’t be surprised to see him go around 40.
I do remembe seing Puni get pancaked at one of the practices and saying in my Hulk voice, “Puni God.”
And I think it was Darius Robinson whoo did it.
I like it, Rob. I think one of the big questions we have to answer is the health of Abe Lucas at RT. If he’s back, great. But, if we’re cobbling together backups, there are two great RTs in the draft.
Dan Viens said on his channel that Kafka’s been given AHC title so he’s totally off limits. I hadn’t heard that. Which leads me to question: what if he really wanted to come to Seattle, couldn’t he just resign from NYG and make the switch?
Well he’s just accepted the promotion, so not any more
I wonder if Grubb was using the Seahawks to leverage Alabama into giving him a richer contract.
Would be a weird move to announce yourself as Alabama’s OC but still be working the contract angle.
I know him stepping to the podium and saying “Hi, I’m your Offensive Coordinator” seems definitive, but this cycle anymore is bananas.
Nothing has been announced. And DeBoer and UW were working on a contract extension right up until he left for Alabama.
Also if memory serves, Sark said he was not going to USC a couple hours before he went to USC.
So…*shrug*
We are far beyond bananas. This is kumquat territory.
JSN not exactly a fan it would seem…
https://seahawkswire.usatoday.com/2024/02/08/seahawks-receiver-jaxon-smith-njigba-gives-awkward-endorsement-of-shane-waldron/
I won’t be happy with Penix. Michigan rattled him with pressure in the second half. and it was apparent through out the year throwing on the run is not his strong suit.
With that special arm talent, he has a shot and JS loves arm talent. He looked pretty good passing on the run in the Cha post above.
Last year I said I had concerns about Bryce Young. Mainly because of his frame. Don’t know if he can hold up.
I am the same concerns about Penix. The Championship game was one of the few games where Penix was hit on a consistent basis. At the end of the game he was playing with bruised ribs. Penix also has had 4 season ending injuries. Yes he is a tough dude. But he is going to take a lot of brutal punishment in the NFL. Can he hold up.
When football season starts he will already be 24 years old. It’s a tough decision. But I think I would have to pass. Might take a chance on him in the 3rd. Maybe.
As far as offensive coordinator Dan Viens from Seahawks forever threw out some interesting names. One on the KC staff. Two on the 49er staff. I could throw the names out their. But if you are interested in the names you need to listen to the podcast. Veins makes good points on these possible candidates.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kv6gZYNZhVM
It won’t be Nagy. He’s been struggling with that offense, so there is no reason to bring him on. I have half a mind that they might have fired him to bring Kafka back if they had lost a few weeks ago.
He’s not too popular down here.
“One of the concerns about the current roster is that there are no Blue Chip, Elite, or Game Changing type of players. DK and Spoon are close. I get wanting to trade back to
fill as many holes as possible. For the Seahawks to be one of the best teams in the NFL, don’t they need some dominant players at multiple positions? Should they be looking to trade up to chase the best players?”
Romeo get what you are saying. Do you remember a couple of years ago when Russell Wilson complained about needing more talent? How did the Seahawks respond? They traded two first round picks and a 3rd round pick and brought in Jamal Adams. Do we really want to go through that disaster again? The Seahawks as an organization still have not recovered from that horrible decision.
The best way to acquire talent is through the draft, and trading down lets you get more lottery picks. That is how baltimore has been so good over the years, valuing their draft picks.
Sure the higher the pick the more likely of a blue chip, but true ‘guaranteed’ blue chip players are usually only maybe 8-10 a draft. So if you are drafting outside of that, it makes sense to trade down for more shots at the pie.
Depends entirely on the draft and available players. One of our biggest faults in the past was trading down, missing out on good players, then ending up with someone like LJ Collier. Your chances of hitting the lottery have better odds the higher up you pick. The first pick of the draft can literally chose anybody. The second can choose anybody, but whomever they pick, and so on and so on. You’re odds get worse each time.
We didn’t trade down for Collier.
My mistake
Pretty sure we traded 21 to green bay…..?
So the Collier pick came from the Frank Clark trade. But we did also have 21.
We traded down from 21 to 30 to 37 to 47 and selected… Marquise Blair.
Looking it all up we turned the 21st pick into:
Marquise Blair
DK Metcalf
Ugo Amadi
Ben Burr-Kirven
Gary Jennings Jr
Travis Homer
Not a great batting average. We could’ve just stayed put and picked DK.
Blue chippers we missed out on were we soothsayers:
21. Josh Jacobs, Montez Sweat
30. Deebo Samuel
37. Elgton Jenkins
Gary Jenkins was a R taken in round 4. He must have set a record. He flamed out in the preseason and never made the team. I don’t have the evidence for this but I think that since 2010 we have had more success in round 5 than in round 4.
This was the 2019 draft. JS was hailed as a wizard for turning very few draft picks into many. It didn’t turn out too well did it? If he hadn’t been injured, BBK might have been the only one on the roster in 2023 besides DK.
I mostly wanted to bring up a counter argument to the current trade down mock just to be contrarian. I do understand that this is a prognostication from Rob to what he thinks JS will do.
The Niners have a lot of Blue Chip Players like McCaffrey, Samuel, Warner, Williams, etc. If the Seahawks want to match that team and those levels of players, they either have to pay a premium for top free agents, trade valuable picks for one or select them in the draft. You are most likely to find these kind of players in Round 1, usually near the top. I am arguing that trading top picks for medium picks is not the best way to acquire the top end talent. Without top end talent, keep on enjoying losing Wild Card Games.
You can get premium players throughout the draft. Just need to identify and coach up.
Sure. We all hope that’s what they do now. Hopefully all the dud picks and bad coaching was just Pete.
Doesn’t that go against what you’re actually saying?
McCaffery was a trade. Deebo was drafted in the second. Warner was drafted in the 3rd round. Willams was traded for a fifth and third in the next season.
^This
Plus in the example above, where “we could have just stayed and picked DK” it would have been staying to pick Blair and missing out on DK.
He wasn’t wrong. There wasn’t and still isn’t enough talent.
Packaging multiple picks for a safety is silly. Trading down to get collier, McDowell is also silly.
There’s a lot of holes so I get trying to fill out the roster as much as you can.
In the 2023 Draft the Seahawks stayed at pick 1.5 and took their BPA Witherspoon. He might be one of the best CBs in the NFL for the next several years.
I do understand those that want to pile up a bunch of picks and get more chances to add players at multiple positions.
There’s quite a few names if the land at #16 I’m taking over quite a few qbs later we might get.
Wish we had that 2nd rounder but I’ve been treating it like we drafted Leonard Williams ( cash aside).
https://twitter.com/AllbrightNFL/status/1755604632951574767?s=19
Allbright definitely has connections and says Nix is “absolutely not” in play at 12 for Denver and Nix will go in front of Penix
McCarthy in the top 10 feels wild to me. Like I just wonder what they’re seeing? He’s not an incredible athlete and he had such a limited role at Michigan that it’s tough to project him.
Interesting on Nix and Penix, round 2 / 3 seems more reasonable for those.
I would be ecstatic if McCarthy goes top 10 though. That takes away one less team wanting a QB and essentially bumps us up to #15
I’m with Geoff and this version of 4d chess.
Someone drafted trubisky once.
I think he’s more of an athlete than you give him credit for. His limited role does make things more difficult though. It’s going to be interesting to see what the league thinks
I like little grains of info but have to apply caution. Why would a broncos reporter know two months before the draft?
It’s bullshit seaon. The draft is Christmas. The Senior Bowl is Halloween.
Albright is pretty notorious for stretching the truth to outright making shit up.
There was a whole thing with his military history and claiming he went to Harvard law.
Google: Ben albright lies or similar and there are dozens of stories about the dude. Certainly not someone I’d put a lot of stock in.
I think the trades are realistic and i like most of the picks. I’m the weirdo that prefers McCarthy to Penix though. Penix has too many red flags for me personally. I’m curious what physical limitations youre referring to with McCarthy? He’s quite mobile and has no problem with arm strength (he’s not Milton, but who is). He’s 6’3. He has questions/red flags too, but i think they’re things you can coach or develop. Especially since he’s only 21.
That said, i preferred last years QB class to this year. Especially with our draft stock last year. I think we’re in that awkward QB purgatory area now. We’re too good to draft high without mortgaging the future. We might be stuck with journeyman vets for awhile. Unless we find a late gem.
Caution with the listed sizes. I’ve never seen a school list smaller and a guy is taller. But I’ve seen numerous times it go the other way.
I understand the logic behind trading down from #16 to something such as #29 and acquiring more draft picks, especially when 1) not having a 2nd, 2) having multiple holes to fill, and 3) desiring a QBoTF. However, I must say it makes me extremely uneasy. I have visions of: Brooks (27), Collier (29), Penny (27), McDowell (35), Ifedi (31)…okay at best (Brooks, Penny) but generally underwhelming. That list averages to to the 29.8 draft selection. IMO, there’s a big difference between drafting at #16 and drafting near #30, and an even greater disparity between #16 (where we COULD draft a blue-chip OL/DL prospect) vs #58 (where we’d presumably be drafting for OL/DL if we pick a QB at #29). That’s not to say blue-chip player can’t be found later, but the odds decrease. The last two years we kept it simple and didn’t get “cute”; we stuck with our draft position, we stuck with our mantra of BPA, and captured our best drafts in years. I hope we continue with that approach. Our SeaHawks always seem to do better when we let the draft “come to us”. We have two 3rds, maybe JS can move up into the 2nd round if he sees someone fall who he really likes. Just my 2 cents…
T.J. Watt — pick #30
Lamar Jackson — pick #32
Chris Jones — pick #37
T.J. Watt — pick #30
Lamar Jackson — pick #32
Chris Jones — pick #37
Which is why I said, “That’s not to say blue-chip players can’t be found later, but the odds decrease.” I’d love to have any of those guys. Sadly, they were selected by other teams.
Been awhile, but I remember studies on this and your odds of finding a probowler in the first round is 50/50 and 1/4 chance in the second round. Googling stuff, I see a more recent study:
1: 40%
2: 18%
3: 10%
4: 5%
5: 5%
6: 2%
7: 1%
https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2023/3/29/23659586/the-nfl-draft-research-project-starters-and-impact-players-edge-rushers-premium-players-top-picks
Good info…Thanks!
Pretty interesting insight into a what if with the seahawks. Since all these picks could have been Seattle’s pick.
Zinter and Mcmahon would add some spite to the O-line for sure.
Jenkins for me is one of my main draft crushes.
Also Rob, you comment on Baltimore taking early leads and having the D do their thing is 100% spot on. I really hope we do the same.
Great work Rob, as always. I say it every draft year – since I found you for the Germain Ifedi draft this is my go to site. The sheer amount of work you put in year in year our and all year round on a contstant basis is superb.
Thank you
The conventional wisdom is that Seattle better get an OC soon because of the 2/16 Geno deadline. The OC needs to give input.
The hiring ‘delay’ tells me that JS/MM are making the decision on Geno on their own and they’ve decided.
I’d also argue the 16th Feb deadline is a red herring
The deadline to trade him is the key date
That’s fair but the Seahawks are backed into a corner here.
Per my piece, they’re over the cap and they need to get under. Cutting Mone and say Bellore barely gets their head above water.
When March 13 comes around, they’ll have no money to sign LW, JB, or tender their RFA and ERFA’s.
They’d have to cut Quandre Diggs or a combo platter of Dissly and Dre’Mont to have enough breathing room to carry Geno until March 18. That’s about their only option.
For only having a handful of big contracts, it’s amazing that they can be in such awful shape regarding the cap.
They went super-aggressive last year by pushing Lockett, Diggs, Adams money into future seasons, and then trading for Williams. I don’t think fans truly understand how big and bold they went. Well now the butcher’s bill is due.
Also, this is the consequence of the Jamal Adams trade and not following their typical intelligence on big contracts. They now have a boatload of money on a badly injured player and do not have 2 or 3 bright young stars hitting their strides on rookie contracts.
I thought Brady Henderson had a good spot on Brock and Salk today that hit some of the things Rob and Cha have been discussing regarding Geno options.
It was great
It was good hear well sourced, detailed info and informed intel on there
I’ll have to listen to it on replay.
BH has been good on this issue. Level headed and seems to grasp the contract issues well.
Panthers retain Evero as DC and add two ex-Seahawks coaches as OC and STC.
https://twitter.com/Panthers/status/1755671258736586854
Considering success rate per draft round, if I were GM there are two strategies I would employ:
1. Trading later round picks to move up slightly for a player I really liked who had a good chance of being selected before my current position.
2. Trade down for future draft capital. Doing so every year gains a round in draft position somewhere. In fact, my first year I’d probably trade everything for future picks. Trade this years 1sts to the equivalent of two 1sts next year (or over next 2 years). This years 2nd for a 1st next year. The 3rd for a future 2nd. I The amount of self control needed to do this would be difficult, but well worth it. Every year you essentially move all your picks up a round and gain a first.
QBoTF, starting guard, strong DT and firecracker at LB? Fiesty Safety with leadership mentality?
Rob you dirty dog, giving my friday another kick, lets go!
I woud love for Schneider to continue to pick Best Player Available that also carries leadership and mature mentality. Also complete psychos on defense is fun. What made LOB so great was their unbreakable belief that they were the best and their complete and utter insane minds, throwing themselves into tackles as if its the last thing they were ever to do.
Down season or not, all i want from this offseason is long term hope for a competing team.