I promised an updated horizontal board after the Senior Bowl and here it is. It’s based on performances in Mobile plus further tape study (eg where I didn’t have a player on the board pre-Senior Bowl but have now watched enough to put them on the grid). I’ve also worked on some of the players who excelled at the Shrine Game. The new board has 199 players graded. The next update will probably come after the combine.
You can click the board below to enlarge. Then, I’ve listed some of the players I think ‘fit’ the Seahawks following the appointment of Mike Macdonald as Head Coach, there are notes on ‘risers and sliders’ and I spend some time discussing the quarterbacks.
Potential Seahawks targets
I was intrigued by this Reddit post that was doing the rounds last week, detailing a lot of useful information about Mike Macdonald and the Ravens.
I think it’s also important to remember that in the last two drafts the Seahawks have doubled down on character, with John Schneider talking about the importance of that aspect of evaluation and clarifying what a ‘Seahawk’ is.
The players below tick that box, fit the scheme which Macdonald may implement and could fill potential needs.
Malik Mustapha (S, Wake Forest)
I was wowed when I watched tape of Mustapha the week before the Senior Bowl and immediately placed him on the board as my highest ranked safety with a second round grade. He has an outstanding mix of range, quickness, hitting ability, power and he’s versatile enough to play different roles at safety (free, strong, nickel). He doesn’t have Kyle Hamilton’s size (5-10, 210lbs) but I believe he can fill that void if Macdonald is looking for that type of player. He needs to sharpen up schematically to stick at free safety because he does give up some plays. Initially I would suggest putting him at strong while he develops, in place of Jamal Adams. Yet the potential is there for Mustapaha to be a top-tier safety. From a character point of view he is first-rate with an engaging personality, he was a team-captain and he would perfectly fit Seattle’s desire for a high-character individual. He could be available in round three and quickly work into a starting role.
Nathaniel Watson (LB, Mississippi State)
I wish I’d studied Watson sooner. I watched him after hearing some positive reviews on day one of the Senior Bowl. On tape, he’s an ideally sized physical machine — capable of playing the MIKE or WILL. He can drop in coverage to take away throwing lanes but he can also fly to the ball-carrier and play sideline-to-sideline. Watson, if given an opportunity, will absolutely hammer opponents and possesses the big-hitting skills Seattle’s defense has missed in recent years. There’s a good example on tape from last year where he chases down and blasts Bryce Young. There’s an old-school style to his play, with the traits of a modern day linebacker. He can play in attack-mode as a pass-rusher and had 10 sacks in 2023 and totalled 21 sacks in his last three seasons. He led the Mississippi State defense and was the one to make the calls on the field and adjust. Watson is a heart-and-soul player very capable of developing into an impact player and leader. If you can get him in the third or fourth round range, he could be a steal. If he runs a good short-shuttle and 10-yard split, watch out.
Jackson Powers-Johnson (C, Oregon)
JPJ was just born to be a center. You only have to look at his frame, he’s a big square block. Yet you wouldn’t think he was 334lbs — he carries the weight so well and athletically he is exceptional. His balance when engaged is different level. There are examples of him on tape running downfield with ease, seeking out people to block. He can do everything well — turn defenders to open lanes, get his angles right to be in position to control, he recovers and adjusts well when he loses leverage initially, he has a strong back to plant the anchor, you can pull him and get him on the move and he makes it look easy, he reaches up to the second level, he attacks defenders early off the snap and gets into their pad-level to be the aggressor. He’s a good short-shuttle away from being a possible lock to go no lower than the Dolphins at #21 or Cowboys at #24. Character wise, he’s exactly what you’d expect from a center. This is a nice deep class at the position but JPJ has separated.
Luke McCaffrey (WR, Rice)
If the Seahawks part ways with Tyler Lockett this off-season, McCaffrey could be a ready-made replacement. Watching him during practise in Mobile, he had the same kind of subtle, gliding movements Lockett has to get open. He also has that same savviness and consistency and you can tell he’s an intelligent player. I don’t know if he can run a 4.40 like Lockett but he has the bloodlines to do it. As you’d expect given his deep NFL roots, he’s all football and there are zero character concerns. I think he’s another player who could be available in the third round range who provides tremendous value for whoever takes him.
Dylan McMahon (C, NC State)
I was able to watch some of the Shrine Bowl highlights and the one player who stood out the most was McMahon. He showed choppy feet to keep setting and anchoring against interior rushers. He consistently got his hands inside and in the right spot and because he’s a smaller blocker (6-2, 295lbs) he won many leverage battles. Then, with his strong back and connected feet, he just controlled. There were occasions during scrimmage where he released up to the second level and sealed running lanes. He also did a good job turning opponents off the snap. His angles were good and he’s scrappy — he’s just a pain in the arse to disengage from. McMahon can reportedly jump a 32-inch vertical so he’s explosive. He speaks well, again — typical of an intelligent, determined center. I’ve got him in round three with the expectation he could be available later at a bargain price.
McKinley Jackson (DT, Texas A&M)
If the Seahawks need a bigger defender to anchor their line, a lot of people are going to look to the flashier T’Vondre Sweat. I can see why — he’s a big name with incredible athleticism for his size. I do think, however, that Sweat’s weight is an issue. His conditioning wasn’t always great at Texas and they basically had to kick his arse into gear. Finally, in his last season, the light switched on and he delivered on his potential. But it was a bit of a battle until this point. The fact he refused to weigh-in at the Senior Bowl speaks to the problem. I’d rather focus on Jackson instead — the emotional leader of Texas A&M with no such baggage. He is a fiery, tone-setting defender with great size and the length/height to win many leverage battles (6-1, 331lbs, 33-inch arms). In Mobile he consistently drove blockers back into the pocket. He’s been a blog favourite for months so I already knew on tape that he can disrupt and not just carry blocks. McKinley is a physical, total-football player who can be a productive plus nose tackle for a long time.
Emani Bailey (RB, TCU)
I was blown away by his performance in the Senior Bowl game. Bailey is short but stocky with a 5-7, 210lbs frame. He does a really good job making the first man miss to get yardage. He can run through contact and based on tape evidence, you only have to watch for a couple of minutes to see him breaking tackles and finishing every run. Bailey is incredibly tough and physical but he also has the footwork and agility to go with it. He’s shifty to make people miss in the open field and he has enough acceleration to turn a good run into a great run. If he gets an opportunity to bounce outside he does it effectively and with no wasted motion, before bursting upfield. He runs good, crisp routes as a receiver and shows good hands. He can carve out a role very quickly as a third down back, with the potential to be a three-down runner in time. I want this guy on the team. Get him on the team as RB3.
There are other players I could list here as potential targets. As noted below, I think some of the quarterbacks fit Seattle. Payton Wilson the linebacker at NC State is exactly the kind of intense, play-every-snap-like-it’s-your-last prospect they could be really interested in. There are athletic defensive tackles — including Kris Jenkins at Michigan, who Macdonald will be familiar with. There are other linebackers including another Michigan man — Junior Colson — plus Jeremiah Trotter, Edgerrin Cooper and Cedric Gray that you can well imagine fitting the bill. Ladd McConkey feels like a Schneider-type player and I’d love to think offensive linemen like Zak Zinter, Graham Barton, Sedrick Van Pran, Zach Frazier and Roger Rosengarten would be considered too.
I’m told Ja’Lynn Polk is highly competitive with incredible character, so he could be a real value option. Two other Husky skill-players in Jalen McMillan and Dillon Johnson could also last longer than they should given their talent.
At #16, if either of Jared Verse or Chop Robinson last, sticking and picking might be the best move as both players have exciting pro-potential. I’d even consider throwing Quinyon Mitchell into the mix, given his blend of athleticism, swagger, physicality and ball-playing ability.
There are lots of players in this draft class and ample opportunity for the Seahawks to kick off their new era in style.
Key risers on the board
I decided to put Oregon State tackle Taliese Fuaga in the blue-chip category. From the minute I watched him during the season, he looked special. A physical monster who absorbs opponents when he makes contact, yet he has the footwork untypical of a man his size to get into position to connect in the first place. He won’t get out of the top-10, he dominated at the Senior Bowl and for me is the top tackle in the draft.
Missouri defensive end Darius Robinson had a great week and I’ve moved him up to round two. He’s getting first round buzz but I would offer some caution here. Robinson showed he can play across the line using power and technique. However, on tape and in the scrimmage you see a common occurrence. Robinson is a nearly-man. He’s nearly there to make the play a lot of the time. He’s more disruptive than productive. I think teams will value his frame, toughness, consistency and ability to challenge blockers but without amazing testing, I think he’s more of a top-45 pick than top-20.
Quinyon Mitchell was the star of the Senior Bowl for me and I’ve moved him into the first round range. I think he’ll be the first cornerback off the board. Jackson Powers-Johnson is also now in that grading area. Meanwhile, receivers Ladd McConkey and Roman Wilson received a boost, as did tight end Ben Sinnott.
Roger Rosengarten had an outstanding week and although I haven’t moved him into round one, I see him as a very likely top-45 pick.
Players who dropped
It was hard to see Jacob Cowing weigh-in at 165lbs then not make an enormous impression. If you’re that small, you need to be really good and I thought he was just OK in Mobile.
I moved Patrick Paul into round three. His technical flaws were glaring, as he kept spreading out his arms before making contact, exposing his chest way too much. It looks like a bad habit he’ll struggle to kick. Brandon Coleman didn’t play that well at guard, which is his likely position in the NFL. Charles Turner, a blog favourite, had a great first day but struggled after that. I’ve moved him into round three.
Kalen King had a really poor Senior Bowl and I’ve moved him deep into day three.
Thoughts on the quarterbacks
I have to say, I’ve heard and read a lot of inaccurate stuff about the quarterback performances in Mobile last week. As I said in my review, they all did OK. Nobody struggled. Nobody stood out. As Tony Pauline often says, the Senior Bowl can be a ‘king maker’ at the position. No kings were crowned this year and I’m not sure anyone did that much to shift their stock.
This is what I think about the class — and this is based on watching 18+ games on each of these players.
Caleb Williams will be the #1 pick. It’s been obvious for two years. He is exceptionally talented and despite people suggesting otherwise, nobody has come close to knocking him off that perch. I’m not convinced Chicago and Shane Waldron are the match to unlock his limitless potential but that is almost certainly where he will begin his career.
Jayden Daniels is QB2. He is incredibly dynamic as a deep-ball passer and as a runner/playmaker. He will stretch teams in many different ways. He doesn’t have quite the lightning arm and running ability of Lamar Jackson but he’s not a million miles behind — and I’d argue he shows better touch and accuracy as a passer than Jackson did at Louisville. He will almost certainly be taken second overall by Washington I think.
Drake Maye, as I’ve said for over a year, is overrated. That doesn’t mean he’s bad. He isn’t. But the talk of him being the #1 pick was ridiculous and all of the people pedalling that should fess up before they ultimately return to Caleb Williams being the no-brainer choice over the coming weeks. He has physical tools, surprising mobility and creativity for his size and he can be a playmaker. He also takes too many ill-advised risks, makes too many errors and was outplayed by other quarterbacks in his time at UNC. Teams will be thoroughly mixed on him. I don’t think he’s a shoe-in to go third overall at all. He won’t drop deep into round one but it won’t be a surprise if he gets to #8. Josh Allen was a better prospect and he lasted to #7.
Then you have a group of four that are incredibly hard to place in terms of draft range. I can imagine Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr, Spencer Rattler and J.J. McCarthy all going very early. I can also imagine all four lasting into day two and in some cases, well into round three.
I’ll get McCarthy out of the way. I just don’t see it on tape. There’s nothing special about his game, he’s a light quarterback and he needs to add strength, particularly with his arm. I think he’s best suited to be drafted for a specific system that requires doing what you’re asked, rather than someone who is going to be an explosive downfield passer and difference maker. I have him in round three but virtually everyone assumes he will go in round one. I wouldn’t do it.
Onto Nix. Let’s just park the Oregon offense talk for a minute and talk about what he’s shown he is capable of. He can drive the ball downfield with great velocity and accuracy. He threw a flea-flicker at the Senior Bowl 60-yards on the money:
Great ball from Bo Nix, but Tez Walker can’t haul it in
The UNC receiver’s had a rough week pic.twitter.com/u4rKfd1ilt
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) February 3, 2024
That’s not common. Nix has excellent physical tools and is not limited in any way with his arm. He can make the quirky, modern-day special plays — as shown by his across-the-body throw on the run and numerous other big-time efforts while on the move. He’s shown he can throw accurately over the middle while also keeping an offense on the go, on time and he has helped elevate his team. There are zero character concerns. He has a good, solid frame with reasonable height (6-2) and he showed a great release in Mobile which is quick and will stand him in good stead at the next level.
For all of these reasons, it’s very possible he could be a high pick. Some teams will be concerned about how he fared at Auburn, they’ll consider the extreme user-friendly offense in Oregon, they’ll look at the occasions where he did have patches in games where things stalled. This is why I have him in round two. But the truth is, there are plenty of things to like about Nix and I think, as with Maye, some will like him a lot and others less so. His range could be #11 with Minnesota to #45 New Orleans. Nothing in-between that would shock me. It really is going to come down to how much you believe in the philosophy of focusing on what a player can do. But anyone saying he ‘sucks’ or ‘belongs in round four’ is talking out of their backside. There are tools to work with here and they carry value.
With Michael Penix Jr, his arm talent is remarkable. I think it’s a bit disappointing he didn’t let it rip in Mobile. I didn’t see one ‘wow’ throw all week and yet we know he can do it. Maybe the coaches could’ve got him and Nix to do a few deep-balls at the end of practise? They dialled that flea-flicker up in the game for Nix, I guess.
That said, on tape there’s ample evidence anyway. Penix Jr’s arm compares favourably to any of the high-profile rockets we’ve seen in recent years. Patrick Mahomes’ arm talent was no more spectacular at Texas Tech. In fact, you could make a case that Penix Jr’s best 10 throws at Washington were at least on par with Mahomes’ 10 best in college. I’m not sure anyone will top the pro-day Josh Allen had but Penix Jr is in that company. It’s not just the depth of throw either — it’s the complexity of the throws. He was delivering layered passes between defenders 30-35 yards downfield that most people can’t make after five years in the league.
Now, as discussed a lot during the season, he also had a long stretch where his play was not very good. His completion percentage sank, his play dipped considerably and there were games where he looked quite mediocre, short of the occasional explosive pick-me-up. There are times where you feel like he needs to constantly be a big-play quarterback and if the explosives aren’t there, I’m not sure he can manipulate a defense on the shorter/intermediate range. He might be relying on a good running game to be able to consistently get the looks downfield he wants.
There’s also the injury history, he doesn’t have anything like a prototype frame and the left-handed thing does matter, because it forces a lot of transition — not just structurally to the offense but your receivers and other players have to get used to it too. Again, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if someone falls in love with Penix Jr’s physical tools and wants to build an explosive, attack-minded offense that can live with several 50% completion days provided he’s able to get the chunk yards to go with it. Equally, the concerns might push him into the #50-70 range where he would, clearly, be well worth taking a chance on.
Finally Rattler. He might be the most naturally gifted in the class outside of Williams. He is such a talented thrower with a ‘born to do this’ style. He’s the only player of the group who has played in anything close to a pro-style offense or a pro-style environment behind South Carolina’s terrible O-line in the SEC. He still performed at a high level, limited mistakes in his final year, played within structure and showed he can create and improvise and make the big plays downfield.
I’ve been saying for a long time that he’ll go earlier than people think and it seems like the tide is turning nationally. From a pure talent standout, I think you could easily justify taking him ahead of Nix and Penix Jr. There are two things to raise though. Firstly, he looked small at the Senior Bowl. He was 6-0 and 219lbs so he has the bulk but he did look smaller with that height than say Nix at a similar weight. He is not a big, powerful quarterback — even though his natural talent enables him to get the ball deep downfield. Secondly, he is going to be asked a lot of questions about his time at Oklahoma. He needs to own up, admit to his mistakes and prove he’s a different person. I believe he’s already there, based on what I’ve seen from him. Teams will need that reassurance though because this is a guy you’d be taking with the chance he becomes the key player within your franchise.
Rattler won’t go lower than round three if he handles the character questions well. Then it’ll be a case of how much higher can he go than that.
Nix, Penix Jr and Rattler are far better than Malik Willis going into the league, who many fawned over despite the quite obvious back-breaking flaws in his game. They are not, however, anywhere near as enticing or as upside-laden as Anthony Richardson. They could end up being viewed in a similar way to Will Levis, who had outstanding physical talent but lasted to pick #33. None of the three are ‘bad’ players, they all have redeeming qualities that justify faith that they can start in the NFL. For teams needing a QB, they are worth a shot.
Furthermore — all three can feature in the kind of offense that I think John Schneider wants to run. I also think he is itching to take a quarterback, as I keep saying, and I think he’s lukewarm on Geno Smith and might be inclined to launch this new era of Seahawks football with a new QB.
That could mean trading down first before taking one, or even taking one with their second pick after moving down, or some other kind of plan. Let’s just say this though — I’d seriously caution against ruling out the Seahawks drafting a quarterback this year.
Love the comments on the Quarterbacks Rob, I’m starting to think this could be the year they go for it.
The guy in their range I’m mostly looking at is Nix. I wrote on the blog a couple days ago that I had previously written him off from his Auburn days but that flea flicker from the combine was eye opening for me and, having actually looked at his more recent film, I think he’s got a shot to make it.
A comp I’ve heard that I like is Jalen Hurts, not in play style, but in career. Like Hurts, he showed toughness is a difficult situation, but then the guts to go somewhere else and reinvent himself. I could see a similar career arc where he just keeps improving and surpasses everyone’s expectations.
My jaw dropped seeing that flea flicker
That pass is ridiculous
For anyone who missed it:
https://twitter.com/tkyles39/status/1753846331834024267
https://twitter.com/JustinDavidKish/status/1753849735918899214
How does Nix compare to Herbert coming out?
Are they similar in being talented guys who weren’t utilized to their fullest potential at Oregon?
Draft Day is becoming a reality. We are moving around the 1st round for a QB named Bo..
They need an LB, DT and S for sure (maybe more than one depending on FA) and they could use a C and a G.
Not sure how FA will shakes up but while I’d love a QB, I just can’t see one that is not feels like a backup, or would be better than Lock for example (especially in their 1st and maybe 2nd year).
If they draft one that’s great, we’ll need one for sure, but I’d rather take JPJ or Jackson or Payton Wilson which would feel more BPA meeting a need (around #16-28 if we’ll trade back) than reaching for QBs with OK upside and a lot of questionmarks.
I hope they trade back, draft one of the mentioned guys and shoot their shot at QB in R3 or early R4
That approach could make sense too. (waiting on QB until R3)
One thought I had was what JS went for last year: the #1 CB, #1 WR, and #1 EDGE rusher on their board (not named Will Anderson). Get your choice at certain positions before the rush starts.
Obviously, this year will be different having neither a top-10 pick nor two R1 picks, but how might we look at possible draft scenarios where we move around a bit in order to get a couple of the best players at different positions?
Maybe trade down and go CB or C in R1, then LB or S in R2.
Sea Mode.
I’m just asking and not making any judgement but CB in round one? Is there one you like?
I’m pretty into nearly any IOL player round one, later and a few at #16
Not really on CB, just Rob (and others as well) has called Quinyon Mitchell the star of the Senior Bowl and has moved him into first round range.
If we trade down a bit and he ends up being BPA at our pick, maybe JSMM decide to make the strength of our defense the three CBs. Maybe they feel his talent + versatility will allow them to use Spoon in a ton of creative ways.
So no, I’m not advocating for it nor do I see it as likely given our needs in the trenches, but it was just a scenario I was running through.
Thanks so much for the detailed notes. I wasn’t able to catch any of the Senior Bowl this year, so this is extremely helpful to read and I enjoyed it. Glad to see there will be several enticing options for the reboot under JSMM. (Should we coin that now in place of PCJS…?😁)
I agree. I think that using the right words and correct spelling makes posts sound more knowledgeable. No insult intended, just good advice.
I’m taking C Jackson Powers-Johnson all day long, and I don’t care we have to stick, trade back, whatever, he’s my Dude this year!! Give me JPJ!!!!!!
How does he stack up talent-wise compared to JMS last year? Were you on that train too?
I was pretty hyped on the Van Pran train before he returned. Maybe JPJ is better. I wouldn’t consider Van Pran a consolation prize if we got him.
He was in Lance Zierlein’s first round mock with a relatively low rating of 6.25 for a round 1 player. I’m not sure what JMS’s rating was last year but I think it was higher. I want to see how he tests.
I liked Michael-Schmidt a lot last year too. Not nearly as much JPJ though. Plus we also have a really big need for interior OL. Why did we even draft two 2nd Rd RB if we can’t even use them? Beefing up the OL or DL needs to be priority #1 in my book.
I kinda like Oluwatimi though. Of all the positions, Center is generally an easy position to find a starter on day 3 and there are some good ones this year.
Thanks Rob, outstanding as always. You make me much smarter on draft day.
Thanks Mike
Love the hawk type players you highlight here Rob, given how many needs we have and current cap issues it really feels like we will need 2 full offseasons to get things where we want.
In addition to focusing on character I also hope JS focuses on BPA, we have seen good results when that is the focus.
Yes we have strong needs at linebacker and DT and safety (if needed cuts are made), but in defense especially we can afford to go BPA and should to raise the overall level of the defense.
I agree with best football player available and drafting from deeper draft positions etc.
And for all the good reasons to draft for character I think John and Pete showed us that you don’t want to truly reach for character either, take last year’s second round pick Hall who was hailed for his immense character….
Hall also has incredible physical tools
Great stuff Rob.
I know you can’t scout every player but Jaden Hicks of WSU is a SS I believe should be on your list somewhere. Hawks likely have more needs or different needs to address.
I am a Coug fan. Did watch a lot of their games. I think he is the real deal at SS for someone. I think he’s worth a look if you haven’t already.
I’ll check him out
You might check out TJ Tampa too. I know he wasn’t in the senior bowl, so for another day. Just a guy that I think will go R2/R3 or so. Bonus, his tape is pretty fun.
I would second this, as a Coug I find it pretty easy to tell when guys are NFL caliber, as the team generally consists of non NFL guys with a few UDFA types every year like Jackson, and Smith-Wade this year. He is clearly head and shoulders above that level. I think he’s a better Safety prospect than Henley was a LB prospect last year. Check out the Wisconsin game this year if you can find the tape.
I know Dane Brugler likes him alot. Had him as a 2nd rounder I believe. I need to watch him
Brugler though
What? You mean you haven’t tweeted at him yet asking when “The Beast” will be out this year? 🙄🤣
😂😂😂
He was also a late withdrawal from the Senior Bowl, with no injury news so speculation is he’s gotten good feedback from some teams and his agent had him pull out.
This really looks like a 2 QB draft with a bevy of little Trubiskys waiting to be snatched up by the desperate few. There may not be a diamond hiding in the rough here. Not saying it’s not worth taking a shot, but it’s a tough call when you have so many needs – QB being one.
Also, Jalen Catalon transferred to UNLV. He can’t stay on the field and doesn’t look anything like his former self. He’ll play next season for his former DC at Arkansas, so maybe the magic returns, but I doubt it.
I would agree with 2 qbs except for the fact that Chicago has the number 1 pick. I predict Caleb Williams will be the next Mitch Trubisky.
Let me know when a Riley qb means much of anything in the pros. I’ll wait.
Hurts? Baker?
Hurts I’d agree. However even on this here site folks think he sucks. I like him quite a bit and I sort of split the difference because he wasn’t just a Riley guy.
Baker is a weird one because he is starting to look more and more like a qb that was effected by his situation. Tbf though it’s taken quite a long road and a few stops to even get into that territory.
Full disclosure: Williams is a great talent. Will never argue that. Could care less about his dad’s stupid comments. Barely care about how bad USC is. Riley is a great offensive mind but might not be a great HC.
Just me here. I see a lot of things Williams does that look awesome on Saturday and will get him killed in the pros.
Namely and top of the list. He holds on to the ball way, way too long looking for a ‘hero’ shot. Not dissimilar to our former qb. Williams has a lot of things going for him like a much better arm than his size would show. However his physical profile is worrying to me as the speed and size of pro defenders ramps up.
Do you make it happen this year with Penix, rattler, mccarthy, nix ( he’s going fourth is my guess)
Or
Do you wait for ewers, leonard, sanders, howard, tvd, and quite a few more.
Reminder. Some of next year’s class will be out of range unless we fall off a cliff.
Herbert was underutilized at Oregon under coach (not so super) Mario Cristobal. He was certainly decent, but has shown better in the league than in college. I watched almost all of his games in college and didn’t realize how good he was until he became a pro.
I think Nix is the real deal. He has the tools, smarts, character, and leadership traits you want. Some have pause or are critical about the simplicity of the offense or the protection his line gave him. My question then is, what was he supposed to do? He set the all time NCAA record for completion %. He had 45 TD passes to 3 INT’s his final year. He would have had even more absurd #’s had he not sat out multiple 4th quarters. He lost three times to the Huskies in two years…but to the chagrin of some Husky fans, might have been due to Dan Lanning’s 4th down fetish. Lanning might have potentially cost that team upwards of two victories against the Dawgs.
The one concern is not having experience taking snaps under center. It’s a legit concern.
In my opinion, I don’t see him being any worse than a Kirk Cousins.
Both Penix and Nix threw a lot of short passes behind or at the line of scrimmage. Naturally they are more successful percentage wise with a short pass behind the line of scrimmage. As a bonus the yardage the receiver makes also gets added to the quarterback totals. This tends to skew the numbers versus quarterbacks throwing downfield against coverage.
If your going to invoke Kirk Cousins then I’ll say Geno Smith is also a Kirk Cousins and Nix and Penix certainly could be at least as good. Probably with stronger arms.
Ironic that you like Emani Baily – my comp for him is Deejay Dallas, the man he’d be brought in to replace. There’s simply no reason to draft him, or any RB, in 2024. We’ve taken 3 RBs in the last 2 drafts, none of whom are getting significant work as it is. If you need an RB4 (or RB3, pending McIntosh’s health) find one in free agency.
Well, it depends when he’s available. If he’s there on day three, graded well above anyone else, taking a flier on another position with a far weaker grade would be pointless
I got a good look at Emani Bailey at Senior Bowl practice in person and I disagree. He has way better feet and hands. There were a lot of things I didn’t like about the American team at the Senior Bowl, but the running backs were not one of them Emani Bailey, Ray Davis, and Cody Shrader were a joy to watch.
Emani Bailey is actually about an inch shorter and a bit lighter than Deejay Dallas. He’s small and elusive. He’s a late pick for sure, and he’s different than Charbonett and Walker III. He reminds me of Kenneth Gainwell out of Memphis with the Philadelphia Eagles.
The offensive tackle draft prospects are deep with 8 tackles receiving high round ratings (1st or 2nd round). How often does this happen in a draft? Given the uncertainty with Abe Lucas and the good but not great play from Charles Cross, it looks like a great time for the hawks to select an impact offensive tackle that usually is off the board in the the top half of round 1.
Shouldn’t Jacob Cowing be in red after tearing his bicep and getting carted off?
Where has that been reported?
https://clutchpoints.com/senior-bowl-news-arizona-jacob-cowing-carted-off-injury
Not sure about reliability
He was carted off, but I didn’t see it. I was on the concourse doing something. Maybe charging my phone? But everyone started to buzz when they brought out the cart.
Well that is a bummer. I really like Cowing a lot! He’s my favorite sleeper this year who has quietly been rising up a lot of draft boards.
Okay, he was carted off, but it wasn’t too serious. MSN wrote a confusing article. Rasheen Ali had a torn biceps.
I heard it was a knee when I was at the practice.
I see lots of calls for C early. Did Olu play that poorly that it warrants an early selection here? Seems like lousy value to me given the wide range of needs, but in the interest of full disclosure: I’m dumb
I think it’s more of if you have a chance of a Pro-Bowl talent or All-Pro talent then you should probably pull the trigger.
No one knows what Olu Olu is going to be.
If you want more speed and intensity on defense, draft Payton Wilson and Malik Mustapha
You will instantly be faster, relentless, physical and destructive
Adding them to the watch list. Thanks Rob!
I have about 10 hours of video if you need it.
https://www.youtube.com/@albertbutler4364/videos
For me, I think I’m learning towards embracing the mean and nasty draft. I’m liking the idea of getting JPJ and Dominick Puni for C/G. That’s a nasty combo. Triple down with AJ Barner to boost that run game.
Then get a bunch of fast and aggressive young guys on defense.
And versatile. Yet to be proven, but I think versatility will be a big scouting point moving forward with MM at the helm. I’m salivating imagining the kind of pressures he could create with Payton Wilson and Spoon moving around and disguising looks.
I’ll have to check out Mustapha next.
I do expect that the Seahawks are strongly considering drafting a Quarterback this year. There seems to be some interesting options available and counting on Smith or Lock to be the long-term solution seems foolish.
In 2022 there were no quarterbacks worth drafting in the first few days. Hindsight shows that Purdy may be the only decent QB in that entire Draft.
Last year, the only highlt rated QB prospect they could have drafted was Levis and they, along with a lot of other teams, decided to pass. That may have been the correct decision, but it is too early to state that definitively.
If the Seahaks pass on drafting a QB this year, then when would they pull the trigger? Wait until 2025 Draft or the 2026 Draft? Maybe Smith or Lock can be a bridge QB until the 2030 Draft?
Awesome stuff Rob. Can’t wait to check out Mustapha and some of the others.
Feels like we’re gonna choose at least one from the Michigan D.
Been reading more about Mike Saintristil…here’s the top comment on the Michigan football’s subreddit on who would you rather have: Mike Sainristil or Jabrill Peppers? The top comment from their fanbase reads:
Mikey. I’d take 22 Sainristils if I could. It’s not about physical ability IMO, both are good. Jabrill was better. But Mikey has a quality that can’t be taught or coached. He’s got that dawg in him. His body to dawg ratio is off the charts.
Sounds like a BAMF to monitor. https://www.reddit.com/r/MichiganWolverines/comments/1992he7/who_would_you_rather_have_sainristil_or_jabrill/
Was he the guy who went completely under a pulling lineman’s block and dropped Dillon Johnson in the UW game? I still can’t get over that play, it was unreal.
I watched every Michigan tape I could find to scout for the National Championship and Mike Sainristil was the guy I fell in love with. Unfortunately we don’t really need a nickel with Witherspoon and Coby Bryant in the fold. Kids a stud though.
Why didn’t he weigh in at the Senior Bowl. Saw him on the list but no measurements. Did he pull out?
He did
As usual, amazing article Rob. Great job finding players that’ll be available in the later rounds. I’d be down to trade back a few spots and draft Fautanu then McMahon later in day 3. Wouldn’t that be nice ? A decent/good o-line ?
Did anybody else notice that KC and others are using the running game more in the playoffs? In this copy cat league we might see the Seahawks get back to running the ball and dominating the line of scrimmage. They seem to have the running backs and a couple early Oline draft picks might be just the thing.
Remember, a defensive head coach likes to control the time of possession and that means an effective running game. I would like to see it with Drew lock under center launching long balls after pounding the ball for a bit.
Yeah.
I think it has to do more with scheme though. With more teams playing that 2 high shell look or in nickle packages — you want to run the ball.
You write about Darius Robinson being a “nearly-man” and that made me think of Jadeveon Clowney for much of his career and then he had a career year in 2023 with MM. Not sure that MM would be able to get the same results out of Robinson, but I’ll be damned if I didn’t get very intrigued.
I think Clowney was much more dynamic and more of a game wrecker though
Rob, I love the horizontal board. Estimated draft round cross tab with position makes a great visual representation. Is the horizontal board an Rxcel workbook?
Excel. Nice job, Elmer.
It’s on numbers on a Mac
If the Hawks first two picks were Jackson Powers Johnson and McKinley Jackson the draft would already be a success. Everything else would be gravy. Two impressive men right in the middle of the trenches. One on each side of the football.
Seahawks hire Harbaugh to there coaching staff.
https://boltbeat.com/posts/seahawks-swipe-jay-harbaugh-chargers-coaching-staff-jim-harbaugh
This reminds me of that old PSA ad where the Dad finds his son’s stash of weed and asks him where he learned about it.
“I LEARNED IT FROM YOU DAD !!! I LEARNED IT FROM YOU !!!”
Benjamin Solak saying Chip Kelley interviewing for Seahawks OC role tonight
God , I hope he’s not the hire. Don’t do it John , we’re doing good so far !!! 😂
Oh hell effing no. Don’t undo all the good will you garnered JS with the MacDonald hire. Just hire Grubb and get on with it already.
So, JS hires him and tells him to keep the offense the same, but with Drew Lock at QB. Lock puts up Geno-like numbers and everyone thinks he’s a genius, then some sucker pays top dollar to snag him for head coach and we get who we really want next year.
Brilliant!
Ew.
ALSO. Chip Kelly was the HEAD coach of the San Francisco 49ers?? Why did I not get more enjoyment out of that and how did it fall out of my brain.
People laughed at the idea of Dan Quinn and Chip Kelly in Seattle. It will be ironic if Chip Kelly end up being the Seahawks OC after all.
I bet it doesn’t happen
Hell to the NO!
I have a feeling that it’ll be either Grubb or Engstrand. Kelly wouldn’t be my first choice. Although to be fair, Philadelphia was top 5 in scoring offense in both 2013 and 2014 (and a still respectable 13th in scoring offense in 2015). 2015 was the season where Kelly assumed more control over personnel decisions and he made a series of questionable decisions. And his lone season in San Fran seems to been more the fault of a crap roster.
Kelly isn’t my first choice of the 3 reported candidates, but I think if he’s solely focusing on the offense, he wouldn’t be a disaster.
If it’s okay with Rob, and you guys are feeling really bored, I could post the link to track his Senior Bowl hat’s journey to Sheffield.
Buddy…haha. Some things must be kept to yourselves. I don’t think we need to see how a hat is going over to the UK.
I was just going over the paperwork I had to sign and the clerk at the UPS store wrote down the contents as “Super Bowl Cap” and the value as $1.00.
That’s not what I said.
You know, we tracked all those athletes that were chipped up in the same way at Zebra Insights.
Which is more boring, tracking a package in the mail online or Bob Slowik?
I don’t want to track anything haha.
Bob Slowik’s Mom doesn’t even want to track Bob Slowik.
Mike Kafka would like a word
I meant Mike Kafka. Doh!
Why does everyone hate the potential hiring of Chip Kelly as OC? I’m not saying I like it, but I’d like to hear why specifically y’all hate it so much. It would be really interesting to see him come in as an OC without the full responsibilities of a HC.
He’s done nothing to deserve the job. Nothing this decade at least.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2023/11/12/chip-kelly-ucla-offense-week-11-college-football-misery-index/71556923007/
In Phili his offenses were 4th, 3rd and 13th in points/game during his time there.
So that’s his experience that’s most applicable. And it looks great!
College has recruiting aspects program tier etc. But the article you posted mentioned he had 4th best offense in the country a year ago. So he must have done something right.
The game has changed and I’m not going to pretend I know everything Kelly is doing.
I will say. Has he ever developed a qb? Mariota, DTR. They kind of stayed the same since the day he got them. I know it’s two examples but both were very unprepared for the pro game.
Didn’t they have a really good offense with DTR, like top five in the country? DTR never looked like he was going to be a solid NFL QB, so maybe Chip got all he could out of him? I really don’t know as I’ve pretty much ignored him since he left Oregon. I have read that he hasn’t adapted since then.
I watched DTR for a few seasons. Always liked him.
He just seemed ill prepared.
I remember Mariota since I was living in Eugene and watching him in college then the pros and he seemed lost.
Watching Charbonnet videos the offense was different ( than oregon, philly) but I don’t know. It just felt Pete-like. Like, hope my players play better than your players. To me.
Fair enough. I saw a couple of DTR’s games at the Rose Bowl (my buddy represented Kazmeir Allen and got free tickets). If nothing else, this season is going to be way more interesting than the last five years!
As a pretext to my comment, I am a UCLA Bruin who was initially excited by the Chip Kelly hire and is now hoping he does not return as HC. He would not be my first choice; as OC (give me Tanner and that Detroit offense!). However, I would be intrigued by the decision. First, I think JS deserves an open mind given the last two drafts and the recent string of seemingly positive hires. I’m not telling people how to feel because I would understand the negativity. I just could see the logic. Kelly has, shown, in the past, to be adept at creating an offense. Additionally, his offenses at Oregon and UCLA appeared, to my untrained eye, to be very different. This tells me that at the very least he can adapt to changes in personnel or environment. Finally, he has shown himself incapable of being an effective HC. So you don’t have to worry about losing him and he’d be able to provide perspective, along with Leslie Frazier, to your new young head coach. If JS is convinced that he can still get a lot out of the offense, then there is a lot of logic to this move.
The only thing I remember about Chip Kelley’s offense being different was that he always went for the 2 point play after a touchdown – and they went for it on a lot of 4th downs.
Seems like we saw that pattern in two of the playoff games last week. Sometimes it’s better to take the field goal rather than going for it on 4th.
https://theathletic.com/3904954/2022/11/17/chip-kelly-ucla-offense-usc/
Here’s a relatively recent (Nov. 2022) and well written article detailing how Kelly’s offense has evolved over the years.
Loved the article. I’m so locked in on QB this year. It’s such a deep class.
I’ve studied some of the QB needy teams and here’s my sure to be wrong prediction of how it plays out.
CHI: Caleb Williams… Too good to pass up
WAS: Jayden Daniels… Kliff Kingsbury had Mahomes, Murray, and Caleb Williams so he enjoys a QB with mobility and dynamic playmaking.
NEP: Drake Maye… Alex Van Pelt gets a piece of clay to work with and Jerod Mayo starts his tenure fresh with a new QB.
NYG: Stick with Daniel Jones… No QB acquired as it is said that ownership LOVES Jones
ATL: Justin Fields… I think it takes their 2nd round pick to acquire him
MIN: Kirk Cousins… Him and KOC have great chemistry. They’ll get something done to keep him in Minnesota.
DEN: Bo Nix… Denver has no 2nd rounder. Nix has a Drew Brees comp and I think Sean Payton will like him.
LV: Russell Wilson… I could see them trading for Justin Fields and Russell Wilson going to Atlanta instead.
NO: Derek Carr… They made their bed with Carr by giving him that terrible contract. Now they have to try and elevate his play with a supporting cast.
SEA: Michael Penix Jr… I’m projecting JS gets a QB in the fold in Round 3. I see it as Michael Penix or Spencer Rattler.
LAR: JJ McCarthy… I see this as more likely in the 2nd round at pick 52
PIT: Spencer Rattler… I think his “character concerns” and supply/demand at QB puts him in round 3 where Pittsburgh takes him at 84 overall.
TB: Baker Mayfield… I think they give him a solid deal that they can get out of if he doesn’t perform.
Dang.
Very well done. Nix is getting a lot of run just not in hawksland…..curious….
I actually have been thinking ATL with Nix. More athletic Matt Ryan?
I’ve made my bed and I will stick with it….Rattler to the Rams. Round two. The BEST qb as bridge to the future situation.
I would love to see the comedy team of Kliff Kingsbury and Drake Maye.
It’s the King Drake comedy hour!!!
Been thinking about this, bunch of interesting QB options in FA and draft from a league wide perspective. Fun to think about!
Been trying to find the right comp for Nix. Brees was never the runner like Nix. It’s gotta be Colt McCoy with an actual NFL arm?
I’m going back a ways but = Kurt Warner??
Nah, Warner didn’t have that athleticism. And he could go out and throw the ball 50 times and be perfectly fine.
Not sure Nix will ever be a guy to throw it over 30 times, with that being the extreme. He just isn’t that good a passer.
Nix is getting a lot of Jalen Hurts comps. Drew Brees? Yeah right. That being said, Bo has elevated his game. I think he would do well in the right system.
Pretty solid but I don’t see McVay liking McCarthy. Been saying for some time and I’ll stick with it, I think he will want Penix. I could see Nix too.
Personally I don’t see Penix as a fit for McVay
I think McVay is more likely to prefer Nix or Rattler
Nix for sure.
I’ve been putting Rattler in my mind with Mcvay because ( not comparing arms, throwing techniques, or stats here) Rattler has that very intangible thing, that I love, of ‘on to the next play.’
Whether he’s getting drilled in the face but still making the throw or yes when he makes an error. In hindsight I would guess that Mcvay was down on Goff because at the time Goff would shrink and Stafford never does.
Agree. I don’t see Mcvay and mccarthy.
Sign me up for Mustapha. Love the way he flies around, reminds me of Budda Baker.
Interesting comp.
Mustapha himself has said he patterns his game after Budda Baker.
Post Senior Bowl mock draft with PFN simulator. Didn’t get a QB or RB, but traded back at least a couple times and got several good players.
33.
Jackson Powers-Johnson
OC Oregon
65.
McKinnley Jackson
DT Texas A&M
78.
Darius Robinson
EDGE Missouri
81.
Junior Colson
LB Michigan
101.
Malik Mustapha
S Wake Forest
118.
Cam Hart
CB Notre Dame
150.
Luke McCaffrey
WR Rice
154.
Theo Johnson
TE Penn State
193.
Dylan McMahon
OG NC State
198.
Nathaniel Watson
LB Mississippi State
Great work as always Rob on the big board and the breakdown/wish list of players.
Close.
McCaffrey with good testing, bloodlines, etc will probably go third. JPJ I’d say just a few spots higher. But I don’t know. Center is still a bit of an undervalued position. Also will be very interesting for all of them how combine testing goes.
So many players, so few draft picks
😞😥
Not every year but definitely this year.
Rob, I still can’t help but think that Bo Nix has too much Brady Quinn to his game. X has even coined the nickname checkdown merchant for him.
In a recent ESPN article, it says
“Evaluators arrived in Mobile wanting to see Nix operate out of the comfort of Oregon’s offense, work under center and drive the ball downfield when the opportunity arose. They left Mobile with the feeling Nix hadn’t answered those questions. Nix had a spotty practice week in terms of accuracy, especially when he tried to push the ball downfield.”
https://www.espn.com.sg/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39437476/2024-nfl-draft-predicted-round-ranges-seven-senior-bowl-qbs-penix-nix-rattler
While he had that good throw early on, it was the very first play of the game and off a trick play. He regularly throws it short of the sticks and is just underwhelming in general.
This is what I mean though. Yeah the Oregon offense is what it is. Now go and watch every game and you’ll see ample evidence of him being able to make all the throws you need
Can someone help me with the Brady Quinn stuff?
Feels weird for me going to bat for a qb I am look warm on but Quinn was terribly inaccurate and couldn’t move in college. I vaguely remember Quinn in the pros.
Did notre dame run a version of oregon’s offense?
This check down Charlie stuff I get but it’s not all correct. Go watch him at Auburn. He’s a different qb, or has other tools, he’s just a mess as a, player there.
I think people are just trying to rag on Nix because they’re nothing like each other as players
Yikes, there’s another Ian!
Looking at this chart, I am wondering how the impact of NIL has changed the trade value chart algorithm since there are so few underclassmen. So, I asked AI about it. This is what Co-Pilot had to say about it.
I’m thinking someone good with Excel, could figure out the adjusted value fairly quickly.
BTW, were underclassmen allowed to enter the NFL Draft back in 1992?
Let’s start building the trenches.
First pick has to be JPJ if available. Van Pran isn’t a bad second choice either.
I’d then look to get Christian Mahognay a bit later on at G.
DT wise I’d like a later pick on Mekhi Wingo and or Dewayne Johnson. Kris Jenkins is a good player but I have a feeling he will go earlier.
I want to build the trenches as much as anyone but let’s not fall into the trap of saying someone ‘has’ to be the first pick
And maybe with such a deep OT class someone will get pushed down/overlooked ala Abe Lucas?
I wasn’t to high on Bo Nix. But his numbers speak for himself.
“High school career
During his career at Pinson Valley High School in Pinson, Alabama, Nix accumulated over 12,000 total offensive yards and 161 touchdowns.[3] He also won Alabama’s Mr. Football Award as a senior in 2018.[4] He was rated the top dual-threat quarterback of his class and committed to play college football at Auburn University.”
His senior year he had over 4500 yards. 45TD passes and only 3ints.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426338/bo-nix
In college he majored in communication.
Maintaining a 3.62 GPA, Bo Nix graduated magna cum laude from Auburn in 2021 (where he was the three-year starting quarterback from 2019-21).
“The most experienced quarterback in NCAA history with 60 career starts, Nix leads the nation in completion percentage (77.2) and is tied for No.1 for passing touchdowns (40). He ranks second in passing efficiency (186.25), passing yards (4,145), passing yards per game (318.85), and total touchdowns (46). He ranks third in total yards per game (336.4).”
https://footballfoundation.org/sports/football/roster/bo-nix/650#:~:text=Maintaining%20a%203.62%20GPA%2C%20Bo,quarterback%20from%202019%2D21).
Don’t know what to make of Bo Nix.
Pretty impressive.
I think the only reason Abe Lucas slid into the 3rd is because of his injury concerns. Considering what happened with him this season, I’m concerned about him in the long term.
A fair concern for sure and surely one JS is assessing.
That said, injury concerns (neck) were also why DK was available to us at the end of R2. Penny and his perfect medical grade also say hello. You win some, you lose some.
The Seahawks have lost a lot at this game. Not only did the injured player never fully recover, but they also wasted roster space for a year or two while they recovered and another year or two of I hope they will play better next year.
I can’t think of many instances of injured players working out for the Seahawks. But plenty of players who failed to make the field.
Walter Thurmond says hello…
We’ve all clamoured for a top grade centre for years , since Unger was traded – even more so since we didn’t draft Humphrey which to me was borderline negligence by the front office – so why wait until later in the draft (and we would be looking at round three with no second round pick, unless there is a trade up) to select a ‘lesser’ centre when the premium player at that position maybe available early doors?
It wasn’t borderline negligence. I know some Seahawks fans have whipped themselves into a frenzy about Creed Humphrey but here’s the reality. He was the 63rd pick in the draft. Which means every team passed on him once, most twice. He was the third center taken in 2021. He was an outstanding athlete with some flaws to his game, like most. It was a great, upside pick by the Chiefs and that is really their approach to the draft. They consistently shoot for high ceiling, athletic profile types. Unsurprisingly, he has succeeded on the team that has Patrick Mahomes.
Everyone acts like it was some huge egregious whiff by just the Seahawks. It wasn’t. And I’ve been bored of that angle for years. I want the Seahawks to focus on the trenches and have complained about that forever. But it goes way beyond Creed Humphrey.
This is a good centre class. A certain centre is not going to be the difference for this team long term. They need to find a competent, consistent player there, it doesn’t have to be the first pick. It could be, but doesn’t have to be.
And the other side of the coin is that you really liked Tyler Linderbaum and he ended up Pro bowl in his rookie year as a Raven as pick #25 overall in the draft last year. Makes me wonder if Mike Mac saw that and will be interested in a Center in that same area (after a trade down).
As for Humphrey not being picked, I think a good part of people’s annoyance with the Hawks passing on him is the guy they drafted instead, who has bombed, combined with the approach to the Center position that Seahawks have taken over the years. It could’ve been someone else rather than Humphrey. For example, I remember you being high on Ryan Kelly and me wanting the Hawks to take him. He’s STILL the C for the Colts like 10 years later. Would’ve been nice to have him and not be stuck with sub-par play at the position all these years.
And I think the Seahawks liked Linderbaum too
I think it’s very plausible they address the position early — I just don’t agree with the sentiment that they ‘have’ to
You don’t think they should give Olu a chance to be the starter?
Evan brown wasn’t very good and they didn’t give him a shot. Is this Pete being Pete? Or Olu.
I’m far less sentimental about players on the roster than I used to be.
Olu, bradford, Lewis. Any and all can be upgraded upon. Cross is fine but when the time comes if he doesn’t get quite a bit more consistent same for him.
Okada, Reed. Same thing here. I’m way divested on late round picks hoping we find the next Baldwin. If a player in the draft is better they’re better.
It’s a very good center draft. If it’s between very good dlinemen and very good center maybe go dlinemen. But if it’s very good center and just okay dlinemen or similar I’d go center every time.
If they don’t build the trenches Rob, then just go ahead and get rid of your RB’s right now, because they ain’t doing anybody no good.
Seriously though, trenches is what needs to be considered first before drafting a QB. Whether that’s OL or DL is the question. They need to seize this deep OL draft, because they don’t come around very often, along with being able to pick high enough to get a good one.
‘Building the trenches’ does not mean ‘have to take offensive linemen in the first round in 2024’
The idea that as a GM, you see a QB you love but then go, ‘nah, I better draft a center first in round one and pass on the QB’ is absolutely nuts
And this is a deep OL draft!
Guys in regards to John Schneider interviewing Chip Kelly. Remember just a few short weeks ago Tom Pelissero reported that John Schneider had 2nd interviews with Ejiro Evero, Patrick Graham, Mike Kafka, Raheem Morris and Dan Quinn.
But I do have to admit it makes me ask why is John Schneider interviewing Chip Kelly as a possible OC. Maybe he just wants to plug him for information. I don’t know.
As far as Chip Kelly. Maybe they are underwhelmed by Ryan Grubb and Tanner Engstrand.
Could be a favor to Kellys Agent. Kelly is apparently desperate to get back to the NFL. It would be funny if it wasn’t so sad…his agent keeps leaking he “might” be considered for an OC job with this or that team….Far as I know, he had two interviews with the Raiders, that’s it.
Hopefully it’s just that, and JS being thorough.
It could be they’re trying to trigger someone else to hire him? Would be one less competitor for another OC they like.
According to Solak, Kelly got a “ton of NFL interest”. Haven’t heard any news about Kelly interviewing elsewhere, so who knows. But it sounds like Schneider is doing what he said he was going to do: talk to a lot of really knowledgable people not only to see if they have a place on the staff, but also to pick their brains for X’s and O’s stuff. Say what you want about Kelly, but he’s got a brain to pick in this regard.
If I was an NFL GM in a similar position, I’d want to hear what Chip has to say about running a pro offense these days. Doesn’t mean I’d hire him. And maybe it does because Kelly blows them away with his philosophy.
I have some faith in their process, people were clamoring that the Seahawks were going to hire Quinn, but ended up getting one of the top 2 picks instead. People just need to be patient, especially since it seems all the other OC positions have been filled.
Kelly is worth talking about given reports that he has actually interviewed, but I agree with this overall point. As the HC process dragged on there was some understandable fear about where it was going, and it feels like we are at the same spot with OC. But their process has been fantastic so far. They’ve earned a bit of trust from me.
Would be interesting to know Bobo and Charbonnay’s thoughts on Kelly running the offense. They played well for him at UCLA.
I’m still really hoping it ends up being Grubb but I’ve got to trust that if it’s someone else, JS and MM know more than I do. And certainly have much more skin in the game. Kelly would give me an unboner tho.
Really enjoying digging into the new board and try ng to visualize how Schneider can manipulate this draft to take advantage of the depth at the right round.
One of my struggles has been trying to visualize how they could walk away with ideal talent. I continue to think that trading on team assets and a trade back in R1 (unless certain blue chip assets remain) is the way to go.
I still think DeJean is better, I expect he will wow at the combine and that may push him up. There are other small issues like that. I might dig into some of those later.
—
I am in the crowd that would rate Nix/May/McCarthy much lower. I don’t see starting NFL QBs. I was fortunate to spend some time with an old friend recently who is a Cleveland Browns fan. We go way back (1980s).
He respects my thoughts on players and knows I watch a lot of college ball, we were talking about the QB class and he heard my comp of Nix to Quinn (he is a Duck, watched a lot of Nix).
He had a unique take…I wasn’t wrong, Quinn could make all the throws, the only knock on Quinn coming out was that he died in the spotlight, couldn’t handle the top competition. However, Brady Quinn was drafted by the dysfunctional Browns at the height of their dysfunction. Quinn never had a fair shot to develop in the NFL. What if? He countered, Quinn had gone later to a stable org that was able to develop him?
This is a fair point and turns one of my own common arguments against me – you can’t use draft bust numbers as predictive because not all teams draft and develop equally.
Would I hate a pick of Nix/Maye/McCarthy before day 3? Yup! I’d hate it enough to start looking at future GMs and brace myself for some depressing football. Could I be wrong? Yup! Defensive minded Marvin Lewis (former Wunderkind of Baltimore) rode the Red Rifle to several successful seasons – and that could be what we have to look forward to!
This is why investment matters, Kirk Cousins benefitted from his draft position, as did Drew Brees, Jalen Hurts, and others. Fan/Org expectations matter…and the investment from the Org side matters because it allows for quick reinvestment at the position (you don’t have a Prez problem).
I’m trying to be positive about the new Mac era, the specter of Chip Kelly combined with Nix/McCarthy has poured some cold water on me.
While I’m not a fan of Nix/Maye/McCarty, I’m on a slightly different boat.
If Nix or McCarthy were picked anywhere in the 1st round, I’d be pretty mad.
Maye in the bottom half of the 1st I’d be fine with (even at 16), just with how toolsy he is.
Nix or McCarty in the 3rd? Sure, let do it, that’s a fine place to draft players of their ilk. I don’t think you’d need to go all they way to day 3 to draft them. Just not first round.
Quinn was a total jackass of a human being when he came into the League. That surely had something to do with his failure to thrive as well. He almost made the Hawks as a backup late in his career, but he couldn’t hit a bran door on half his throws…
…and to be fair, he seemed to have matured a great deal, and to be a halfway decent human by the time he was in Seattle.
Who knows, maybe with a Shanahan or Reid he’d have made it. Hard to say.
Hey all, I have enjoyed this mock draft sim more than PFN. They help with fair draft pick trades and player ratings seem realistic.
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-draft-simulator
Just tried it and it had Caleb Williams being selected 8th by the Falcons, so I fled.
Weird. He is 1.1 on mne.
Worked a trade for Caleb at pick 10.
Jamal Adams posted some weird stories on IG – looks like he got the news we’ve all been waiting for (or perhaps some wishful thinking from my part)
Is he using that platform to try to sell his 6,000 coffee cup?
I think that was like a week ago already, right? Or have their been new ones since then?
https://twitter.com/_MLFootball/status/1752179849081594059
But yeah, I don’t think we need to look to any IG stories or anything to know what his fate will soon be. He’s 1000% gone.
As usual the article makes me want more players than we can draft, or players that are out of our scope 🙂 But I think Rob is doing more work than most of the draft pundits on pro sites, and this shows.
I wanted to drop a line on Chip Kelly too. I don’t mind calling him to an interview, but I wonder if Mac has the freedom to choose his OC. Doesn’t particularly strike me as his first option. If John wants to control this hire and even go against Mac’s option, if needed, I think it’s a mistake.
Thanks Mick
Making a board like this, you constantly analyse, compare, contrast, reflect — I think more of the draft pundits should do it instead of wasting time with ‘top-50’ lists and endless mocks
You also force yourself to do the work
I hope it’s helpful to people and there’s easy access to the board via the new website format, with the tab at the top of the page
The board has and always will rule.
Pretty much every evening I can just look a column and start going name by name.
It’s not always easy. Olinemen feels like I have to watch slow mo replays of a great run or pass. Dline takes me a few run through to lock onto a player.
I believe this approach best mirrors the board construction methodolgies that pro scouting departments use. I’m grateful that you are transparent with your sausage making so we can all play along. I expect there wil be quite a few mods to this as always, but each year your starting point is usually miles ahead of other journalists.
Thank you
Agree.
And people need to understand better – this isn’t a prediction chart that estimates where players will be drafted, but a value chart.
That is what teams use. Fans and mockers don’t relate to this method as much as they should.
I’ve seen people get tied in knots that player they love is on Rob’s board as a 2nd round value. “He’s obviously going to go in the first round!” Well yeah, when Rob has 18 first-round graded players, that means (checks math) that 14 players graded lower than first round will be selected in the first round.
It’s not about predicting, it’s about the talent pool level and assessing your draft options from the depth available.
I hear ya.
But I’ve also hear Rob is British. Doesn’t even know what American football is. Is in fact either a casual fan, a homer, a hater, and possibly a doodoo head for not loving my favorite player.
And if I could get the caps lock to work well all of this would have been capitalized.
After several requests, I’ve added Jaden Hicks and Cole Bishop to the board after studying both today
Speed is an issue with both of them I fear — Hicks looks like a dynamic box player who can take routes to the outside. Don’t see him as a space player though. Bishop equally lacks dynamic range but could work in the box playing around the ball
Unless the OC hiring is being held up by the Rooney rule obligations, I’m wondering if there’s a person or two associated with the Super Bowl teams that JS wants to meet with. Perhaps Joe Bleymaier, the KC pass game coordinator or David Girardi, the KC QB coach? Since Reid is essentially the offensive megamind, it’s difficult to get a read on who provides what to that offense but John likely has a good relationship with Reid, due to their GB bloodlines.
Alternatively, I suppose Brian Griese or fighting off the Saints for Kubiak aren’t off the table when looking at the Niners’ coaches, either.
Otherwise, let’s just finish the deal with Engstrand and move ahead, please. There is no room for a “Chip” in this organization, as Hurtt took his secret stash of Chips with him to Philly.
I’m glad to see you added Ainias Smith on your big board (WR, Texas A&M)). He was one of my favorite Aggie WRs and a heart and soul team player. We lost him early in the 2022 season to injury and he came back strong in ’23, especially as a punt returner. If he is truly available in rd 5-7 then we should get him as our primary ST returner and let DJ Dallas walk.
Here is a highlight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsHMM3Tr_ZY
I think this is the only time I ever saw him bobble a catch. What he did with it afterwards is pretty cool.
He’s British so clearly an excellent candidate
🤣
*imagines a newly resigned Leonard Williams stopping down during drills for a spot of tea*
So instead of a ‘Tater’ we would have ‘Biscuits’.
Chips
Crumpets
//trying hard not to make a politically incorrect Rooney Rule joke
So our defense will have no teeth?
/I’ll see myself out
Whatever, man. Hire him so that we can recoup some sweet comp picks if he succeeds and lands an HC gig down the line. The NFL would love an internationally born HC story.
Benny Hill would make a good coach. There would be lots of running at the end of practice.
And I would really like to see Jamal Adams coached the Barbara Woodhouse way.
I, for one, welcome Chip Norton Jr.
I’d like to remind them that as a trusted Seahawks blogger, I can be helpful in rounding up others to trudge to Lumen Field and buy overpriced beer to sit in the rain and watch the offense struggle to move the ball.
That’s why you need the beer, though
How does Nix compare to Herbert? The knock on both seems to be they have high upside but the Oregon offense held them back.
Herbert prototype size
Denver radio is heavily invested in discussing first round QBs- consensus seems to think Sean Payton will like Bo Nix for his system or try to trade up if they can.
Joel Klatt was on today to discuss the QBs and seems to really like JJ McCarthy as someone with solid technique and can operate the system (which Klatt thinks is most important quality for QBs). Touches on pre and post snap read ability (compared to Penix who does this more) and mentioned JJ wasn’t really asked to it so hard to evaluate.
One comment I liked from Joel and Schlereth on evaluating QB success was their ability to stand in the pocket, make an accurate throw with a DL popping you in the chin. Some of these QBs really haven’t been tested this way in how the college game is played which makes evaluating them more challenging. Klatt also thought Drake Maye would be the top QB if Caleb wasn’t on the board- he’s been on this bit all season- doesn’t talk about his faults much just stomps a “better throwing Josh Allen”.
Man, sitting in the pocket, taking the hit, making the throw only leaves Spencer Rattler. Maye might be the only one that is average? To me it’s an issue for anyone else.
Yeah, I think the system comment is good too.
Coaches need to trust the QB can get in and out of the huddle, make a pre-snap read, and deliver ball on time with accuracy. How does one evaluate this at the combine, pro-day, or college game film. This is probably the biggest reason so many arm-talented QBs struggle in the league is translating one system to another. It’s why a guy like Purdy is successful.
This combined with ability to stand in the face of pressure, take shots from the D, and deliver the ball- not take off running or tuck in the fetal. I think there’s nuance for escapability and ability to pickup first downs with your feet- but this seems to be what evaluators care about in translating college to NFL success.
I agree on Rattler, question will be how long can you wait to get him. Maybe JJ is that guy too and Macdonald will have sufficient diligence there.
That’s the problem with college football now: everyone has a system. Too much is taken care of pre-snap, tendencies are in place to make it easier for the offense. I think a lot of it is due to the NIL and transfer rules: run a simple offense or a system so the players and quarterbacks can be just plugged right in.
It makes it harder to get a feel of players because a lot of what we need to know is hidden.
It’s going to make QB and Oline evaluations even harder moving forward.
Rattler is the only qb who doesn’t just “bends knees and claps “
Nagy said Nix had never taken a snap under center in his college career. That’s pretty crazy considering 2 teams & 5 OC’s.
Though watching the Ravens, I didn’t see Lamar lined up under center once.
Maybe it’s less necessary?
IDK why because I know it is the changing of the times, but it worries me if my quarterback can’t or hasn’t taken a snap under center. But I also still think that you should run the ball more than what is deemed “normal” now.
Big 10, smash mouth football is just too ingrained into me.
Wow. Out of curiosity, I tried to look up shotgun %’s in the NFL.
The Vikings with 70.6% out of shotgun were #1… FEWEST! (from a lionswire article)
Damned if I can figure out who led the league, but BAL ran it at a 93% clip in 2022.
Any #’s for the hawks. Felt like I heard raible saying “geno out of shotgun,” as much as I heard “geno under center,” last year.
I can’t find it. Found that we ran it 71.2% on first down though and assume the rate went up from there.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/2023_splits.htm
64.7% of offensive plays
I love the power potential of Fuaga, but I am not sure he stays at T. Bruce Feldman mentioned teams he’s talked to believes he will be moved inside, like Fautanu but for different reasons. He listed Fuaga as a mauler he exceeds at run blocking has shorter arms that the prototypical LT and has issues with elite speed from the edge. Would be great inside for he Hawks if he slides.
I’m at the point that Rattler seems the most realistic pick…especially if we can trade down for trenches pick and get Rattler in 2nd.
When you look at the best and worst OL’s this year, the QB play mirrored what you’d expect:
Bottom 5: Titans, NYG, NYJ, CAR, JAX (even Lawrence in his 3rd year with Ridley, Kirk, Engram, Zay Jones, Etienne, etc. had an 88 passer rating and 21/14 TD/INT ratio)
Hawks were 27th rated OL
Top 5: Cowboys, Lions, Colts (Minshew had similar #’s to Lawrence coming in as a backup and not playing 2 games), Ravens, Eagles
I think you build the line first and foremost this draft unless you plan to sit a drafted QB for a year. We have Cross… a good, not great LT. Then what? Lewis, Brown, Haynes are all FA’s that no one really seems to care if we lose. Lucas may have major knee issues. Olu played 12% of the snaps this year. Bradford filled in alright as a run blocker, but didn’t look great in pass pro.
So we have a bottom 6 OL that might be losing 4/5 starters. Sounds like a recipe for getting a rookie QB killed more than anything.
Now Andy Dickerson is possibly leaving for Cleveland? The OL situation is worse than I think a lot of people realize and that’s a scary thought for bringing in a rookie QB with our top pick.
Louder for people in the back.
I’ve been banging in this for quite some time in regards to the team having good building blocks vs. Talented pieces. Semantics? Maybe. A killer corner, a good maybe Great WR, a good maybe Great OLB are awesome to have. Feels like they built the team in reverse with the old Dline and the nearly nonexistent oline….
The oline is dicey and that’s putting it mildly.
I’m willing it but everytime I do a mock it’s basically Fauntanu, van pran, zinter.
Everyone and anything else is gravy. Not saying each is the best. The dline I think we can get in those ranges vs. Oline talent available/needed never matches up.
Real world I’m sure they wouldnt do that. Maybe Olu can play. Great let’s get two guards.
There is always FA too.
Was just looking at FA iOL for some old blog favorites. Lloyd Cushenberry, Dalton Risner, Robert Hunt, Ezra Cleveland… some okay-ish options for that route. Then I noticed another:
Ravens signed John Simpson to a one year $1M deal and he’s now projected at $7-8M (ie solid comp pick). Getting a dirt cheap LG who played well for 99.4% of snaps and now will bring back mid-round pick… hope John is taking notes.
I don’t think it is quite that cut and dried though.
For the Seahawks, the running game was underutilized and the defense was awful. Those things affect QB play just as much. Look how many of those bottom 5 fired their coaches and/or didn’t fire but they’ll be coaching for their jobs in 2024.
In that same vein, look at how many in the top had smart, innovative offensive coaches.
A smart coach would NOT have gone into the Thanksgiving Day Niners matchup with Geno nursing a sore shoulder and thought ‘yeah, let’s screw the running game and have our banged up QB throw the deepest average per target the whole season (10.7 air yards) because…maybe SF will give us yards by PI penalties.’
Geno was sacked 6 times, pressured 10 times and threw an interception for a 70 QB rating.
And for everyone that keeps saying ‘Geno would have been better had he had a clean pocket all year’ his sacks dropped incredibly from 2022 and his pressures went up slightly.
Pete Carroll’s praise all season masked Geno’s troubles. But when pressed to comment, Pete would say that Geno needed to get the ball out quicker. And Geno agreed with that, and said he needs to get better. When he finally started getting it out quicker, about 15 games in, he had much more success.
A function of the OL? No. Coaching and a QB doing what he needs to do.
Can we bring Pete Carroll back on staff so we can fire him again tomorrow?
Fair points. I don’t think either bad OL or bad coaching are mutually exclusive to bad QB play though.
Similarly, I don’t think that getting a new HC & OC should mean that we don’t prioritize the OL.
The OL as it stands is dog water and needs serious investment IMO.
Right.
Just pointing out the meat in the chili isn’t the only reason it’s good or bad.
drucker: LOVE the nflmockdraftdatabase.com. It is awesome. Tons of fun.
Thanks
Samprassultanofswat
I found that the first 15 picks can be pretty bad. I restarted it half a dozen times (Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison both fell to #16 at different times).
I do like the trade aspect of it. Much more user friendly than PFN’s. Also good to see ranking discrepancies between the sites.
Their pick algorithm is wack. I found myself staring at a choice between Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze at #16.
In regards to J.J. McCarthy coach MacDonald will have inside knowledge on McCarthy.
However, I have to admit all this Chip Kelly does have me a bit worried.
One thing that is interesting about U.C.L.A. last year is that they ran the football for 197 yards per game.
2022- 23 football stats. U.C.L.A. had 237 yards rushing per game. So Kelly does like to run the football. https://stats.pac-12.com/sports/fball/2022-23/teams/ucla
Rob, I’m intrigued by Taliese Fuaga based on the glowing reports I’ve read about him following the Senior Bowl (also, he went to the high school that is literally a 2 minute drive from my house). For the sake of discussion, assuming he were to somehow fall to 16, do you think he’d supplant Cross at LT? Abe Lucas at RT and move him inside to guard? Seems that Lucas would make a better guard than Cross to me.
I think you could play Fuaga anywhere
Damn Rob. This is really good. Thanks so much for your effort on this one. Brilliant!
Do you guys think an RGIII-like haul from WAS might be incoming for the Bears to move off the #1 pick? And would they take it and roll with Daniels or whoever their #2 QB is?
And I would be shocked to see anyone give a R1 or R2 pick for Fields. Who??
I think there will be some who look at Fields as a runner, plus how dysfunctional Chicago has been, and think that he could be a star in a better environment. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they got a 2nd from a team willing to take a shot.
Atlanta?
By the way. PFN overhauled their mock draft simulator. Haven’t played with it yet, but not a big fan of the UI.
The guy couldn’t do anything with Patrick Mahomes. So let him get the guy that reminds him of Curly haired Kermit!
And he had to tell everyone that Mahomes was better than what people thought because his offense didn’t help him at all in college.
Or (conspiracy voice on)….it’s an attempted smokescreen…and Kingsbury/Commanders are hoping Williams goes #1, so they can get whichever QB they think is best at #2.
No evidence for that speculation of course, but I do have a tidbit of info that’s sort of interesting. Now, this will sound attenuated and wacky – but it’s true – though of course the info itself is subjective so use that filter as well.
I live down in LA, and my oldest kid graduated HS two years back. His best friend, who I know well too by now – has worked for the coaching staff of the USC football team the past three years. First as a volunteer in college, and post-graduation as an intern (unpaid for a full year….), and now a paid low-level staffer. His job is to chart opponents’ plays, track whatever metrics USC wants him to on their team, etc.
He was over at my house toward the end of the college season and we’re talking football, and at some point I asked him if Caleb was a team leader type. He said, ‘yeah, when things are going well’ – by which he explained that he wasn’t saying Caleb was some jerk, but that he wasn’t a bring the team together guy either. He also said that the USC practices this year were ‘terrible’, and that much of that was b/c CW would insist on freelancing plays instead of running what the coach’s asked in scrimmages, etc.
Anyway, he may well become the next Mahomes, but will be interesting to see if any of the above proves to be part of the package.
Cool, didn’t know his older brother played pro baseball.
https://twitter.com/Mariners/status/1755322130957558064
One more now definitively crossed off the list.
JSN on Waldron 😂🤣
https://twitter.com/jasrifootball/status/1755308801551450410
Incredible
Oh my goodness
To be fair, the second half was asking about Justin Fields and Waldron. They will probably never work together. What is JSN supposed to say there???
I’ve started to see some buzz for Khristian Boyd DT/nose from Northern Iowa as a result of his performance at the Shrine Bowl. Apparently he was extremely impressive both on the field and in interviews. He even studied all the olineman that were going to be there so he could prepare for each individually. Did you get to watch him at all?