My latest interview in our lockdown series is with PFF draft analyst Mike Renner. I would recommend checking out his coverage, including his excellent draft guide, by clicking here. A big thank you to Mike for his time.
I wanted to draw attention to some information provided within the PFF draft guide, which you can read below the interview…
Included within Renner’s draft guide are the win percentages for each player in the O-line vs D-line 1v1 drills at the Senior Bowl. It’s important to note who performed well here, given the likelihood of Seattle investing in both lines.
For a number of years the Seahawks have placed a high value on excelling at the Senior Bowl. L.J. Collier had an outstanding week in Mobile last year. Marquise Blair also attended. In 2018, Rashaad Penny performed well in the Senior Bowl game.
Here’s the list of participants they’ve drafted in the first three rounds since 2010:
First round
James Carpenter
L.J. Collier
Rashaad Penny
Second round
Bobby Wagner
Jarran Reed
Ethan Pocic
Marquise Blair
Third round
Russell Wilson
Jordan Hill
Tyler Lockett
It’s a fairly significant list. None of the group had any kind of character flags either. The Senior Bowl is an opportunity to get to know these players, see them compete and that’s undoubtedly appealing to a culture-strong team like Seattle.
So who performed well in the 1v1’s? Who might’ve impressed them enough to join the list above?
Zack Baun had the highest win percentage of the pass rushers (75%). I went back and watched the North practises this week and that number is legit. Baun was superb and clearly the most natural attacking the edge. You could see his 1.54 10-yard split on show. The problem for Seattle is he’s 238lbs and he’s fairly maxed out. Whereas someone like Josh Uche (67% win rate in Mobile) can carry 250lbs — Baun can’t. So it’s unclear if he’ll be able to rush from the line or whether he’s strictly suited to playing outside linebacker. Both players delivered at the Senior Bowl though — on top of pass rush win percentages during the season of 27% (Uche) and 20.1% (Baun).
The second best performer in Mobile was DaVon Hamilton (73%). Again, this showed up re-watching the tape. He won mostly with power and heavy hands but he’s also very capable of shooting gaps. For all the talk of Ross Blacklock being a good pass rusher — Hamilton had the same pass rush win percentage score in 2019 (12.6%). Hamilton will go earlier than many realise.
Here’s a list of the top performers:
Zack Baun — 75%
DaVon Hamilton — 73%
Jonathan Greenard — 71%
Anfernee Jennings — 71%
Josh Uche — 67%
Bradlee Anae — 67%
Cam Brown — 67%
Marlon Davidson — 63%
McTelvin Agim — 58%
Terrell Lewis — 57%
Javon Kinlaw — 57%
Both Uche and Anae also tore up the game. We know the Seahawks like to draft from Michigan and Utah too. The big question mark with Anae is the physical profile. Can he continue to be a productive sack-artist at the next level with his moderate level of athleticism?
There were no real shocks on the O-line. Lloyd Cushenberry and Damien Lewis excelled from day one onwards so it’s no surprise they were near the top. Tyre Phillips had a much better week than he was given credit for and Keith Ismael was very consistent.
Lloyd Cushenberry — 75%
Keith Ismael — 75%
Tyre Phillips — 73%
Damien Lewis — 69%
Calvin Throckmorton — 67%
Ben Bredeson — 62%
Ben Bartch — 58%
Josh Jones — 54%
Matt Peart — 54%
The pass rush stats are probably more relevant for the Seahawks and it validates projecting Uche and Hamilton for Seattle — as I did in my recent two round video mock draft:
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Hey Rob, have you watched Netane Muti, G out of Fresno State? He is a bully!! 44 bench reps at combine. I read he does have some injury concerns though
I haven’t — simply because at this time of year I have to prioritise the players I watch. He has very short arms and injury issues.
I spent some time on Muti a couple of months ago. His highlight tape is amazing, but most of those are from his RS Freshman year: 2017
I watched the tape of Fresno State VS Minnesota in week 2 and was less impressed. He’s also played only 5 games combined in the last 2 years due to season ending injuries in both.
Fresno State played USC in week one, so maybe he showed more in that one. Injury risk and short arms (as Rob said) probably have him off our board. I did see PFF had him as their top-ranked IOL, so they like him quite a bit.
I don’t see much difference between how an NFL team will deploy Baun and a guy like Haason Reddick. Baun has a much higher floor IMO.
I gotta ask. You were pretty adamant throughtout the CFB season about Uche not being a fit for a Seattle. What changed your mind?
What’s changed???
How about the fact they’ve done nothing to address the pass rush?
My point beforehand was always he’s a SAM or a situational rusher. And that 100% remains the case. And they need a proper, dynamic LEO — not a situational rusher. But they’ve backed themselves into a corner with a crap pass rush class so it is what it is. There are no dynamic LEO’s. I never thought I’d have to talk about taking him early. I thought we’d be talking about OT and WR. But here we are.
What are the odds of him being able to play LEO full time? If he can’t, what’s he missing? Is it just about 5-10 pounds?
Just size and the ability to do some of the edge setting you need at the next level. Players like Cliff and Clemons were as tough as they were quick.
I watched four 2019 Uche games yesterday. Illinois, Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa.
– Uche had one win against Iowa on the LT. The RT destroyed him.
– In all games, Uche is a liability in stacking the line.
– Uche, no matter what others will tell you, has no inside counter.
– Uche is alwasy chasing his mark
– Uche sacks, in what I watched, were broken plays, where the QB feels pressure from SOMEONE ELSE
I just do not see it.
His worst game was Iowa and that was against Tristan Wirfs.
Here you go. Its the all Utah/Michigan mock which isnt really that bad and checks a lot of boxes.
27…Cesar Ruiz
59…Josh Uche
64…Bradlee Anae
101…Zack Moss
133…Donovan Peoples Jones
144…Leki Fotu
You can run an all Louisiana mock too that works out well. Choose your order for the following:
Justin Jefferson, Grant Delpit, Kristian Fulton, Chaisson, CEH, Damien Lewis, Patrick Queen, Cushenberry, Rashard Lawrence, Sullivan/Moss, Robert Hunt, Kevin Dotson, Amik Robertson
When I do mocks, I always draft all LSU for the bengals lol Give burrows his teammates.
Interesting article as always, Rob. Some questions for you that I’ve been thinking about over the weekend.
1. Do teams who are considering trading back factor in division rivals getting key players? By trading into the second round, does that mean you’re allowing the 49ers to select a better player the Seahawks might have taken? I get the idea of minimizing risk and increasing the number of players chosen, I’m just not convinced it’s the right strategy especially if a key rival gets a better player.
2. Does it feel like the talent level drastically drops after the 4th round this year? Granted, we don’t know as much about some of these players but this year feels worse than most and makes me wonder if the Hawks might focus on getting a smaller but better selection of picks by trading down.
3. How many players have not signed their tender offers yet? What’s the amount of cap flexibility if the Seahawks revoked them to sign D-line help?
3
1. I’d say it’s 99% likely the Niners will trade down themselves from #31. They don’t pick again until R5.
2. Yes I think there’s a big drop after R4.
3. I’ve not studied the numbers but I think what is more likely is something happens with Britt.
Great interview again, Rob, and really informative article. I very much appreciate the hard work! Schneider should steal you away fom us.
Thank you 👍🏻
I’d settle for a few more views and RT’s! Local media and radio seemingly not interested, even with some big name interviews recently with a degree of Seahawks focus.
Hey Rob, Im curious why you say that Baun cant get to 250 and Uche can? Here was there measurements.
NFL Combine:
Baun…6’2″ 238 32 3/4
Uche…6″1″ 245 33 5/8 arms
Senior Bowl:
Baun…6’2 1/2 240 32 1/8
Uche…6’1 3/8 241 33 1/4
Now I like Uche over Baun but I dont see any reason why one guy can get to 250 and the other one cant.
Just look at them.
I have, and I see two guys who could both get to 250.
Well then I’m sorry but you’re very wrong on that one.
Baun is what he is. He’s a diminutive, compact person and there’s a reason he was asked to do a lot more of the LB stuff at the senior Bowl. There’s absolutely no way you can look at him at the combine and say “oh yeah he can slap an extra 12lbs on that frame”. Come on.
Uche is much more naturally in the 245 range and there’s a clear easy way for him to reach 250 with some greater muscle definition and upper body girth. He’s slim not diminutive. He‘ll be near enough 250 within a month on a pro weight programme.
You cant tell me Im wrong because its not a factual situation, its opinionated. You can tell me that you disagree with me and that is fine.
It is factual. All you have to do is look at them.
Not sure why you’re arguing on this.
Because it kills me how you think you are right about everything. If someone disagrees with you, you shoot them down. In a opinionated discussion no one is right and no one is wrong, its opinion. There is a lot of smart people in here (me not included) so you should listen to them as a lot of people in here know as much about football as you do. Let them disagree with you, its not another person taking a shot at you its just discussion.
Stop crying because I disagreed.
I only speak with conviction about things I know about. I’ve given you a very legitimate counter and all you’ve offered in response is a moan because I disagreed — and quite an offensive suggestion that I don’t listen to anyone else (which is total bollocks).
So spare me these kind of responses.
You didnt disagree though you told me I was flat out wrong in a discussion where someone cant be wrong. If you disagreed Id be fine with that as that is what I said. Just remember its OK if someone has a different opinion than you. I see a guy whos frame could get to 250 and you see a frame that you dont think can get to 250. Its OK, if we see it differently.
It’s not though. It’s very clear that Baun isn’t a player capable of getting up to 250. I don’t even know why you would think or consider that. He’s compact and diminutive. For you to not only disagree but then, when faced with a contrasting argument, essentially go on the attack and make accusations like you did. Come on. That’s out of order.
This is how my arguments been sounding during quarantine
I disagree with Rob here and there. It’s his blog. People will have opinions.
However the reality is there is such a thing as frame, and skeletal structure. People with bigger bones and a broader skeleton will be heaver and will put on weight easier. Uche is a bit shorter than Baun but has a stockier build, the type you see in an NFL defense end. I see Baun as a slighter linebacker who almost looks like a safety.
Take it from me. A player’s frame is non-negotiable. When they stop growing, there is a fixed amount of growth potential before it becomes cumbersome. Now, comparing player to player? Baun is a better overall OLB. It isn’t close. The way he sets an edge vs Uche is hands down better. Baun doesn’t get engulfed like Uche has from time to time. He had his worst game against Wirfs. Ok, well Wirfs wont be a top ten tackle in the league next season, so ho will he fare against big, veteran tackles who can handle him? Are they LEO’s? Neither really is an ideal fit. Still, if they are both going to play OLB and situational pass rusher… Baun is the superior football player.
I don’t really think it’s an answer in a debate over differing opinions that all opinions are equally valid because they are opinions. Some are based on better facts or experience than others.
Zach Baun has the build of a big safety. He actually looks less than 238 on tape, in my opinion.
And I love hearing your opinion.
Baun or Uche? That kid looks like a DB out there with that single number business. He plays the run like a defensive back at times.
Regardless of frame and weight to 250. Neither are stout enough to play 3-downs today. Uche may be able to hold down Strong Side LB.
Baun is the better football player today. I suspect that will be the case 4 years from now. Uche is a speed guy. An extra 5-10 lbs may actually do him more harm.
All of this bickering about the Uche/Baun/Anae is really making me think that they wont go edge 1st.
Im coming back around to them thinking they can pick their choice of DT with their 1st pick, and with their love of scouting 2 years early that leads me to think its going to be
Raekwon Davis
Willie Gay
Darrell Taylor
for our 1st 3 picks.
Only question is will our first pick be in 30s or 40s.
John Schneider is the only guy who thinks he ripped off another team because they only got one $10 Bill and he got Nine $1 Bills.
I would encourage you to read this.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/smart-nfl-teams-trade-down-at-the-draft-most-nfl-teams-arent-smart/2019/04/25/b974c904-675c-11e9-a1b6-b29b90efa879_story.html
Let’s say 1st round has a 60% chance to get a starter, round 2 has a 45% chance and round 3 has a 30% chance. Does it make more sense to take the 1st or trade down for a 2nd & 3rd?
You have a 40% chance of failure if you stay.
If you trade down, you have .55 * .7 = 38.5% chance of failure (not getting a starter).
So a 61.5% chance of getting at least one starter, along with a 13.5% chance that both are starters.
I made these numbers up just to illustrate the math.
I understand the point you are trying to make, but this team needs difference makers not just “starters.” If we were trying to build depth, then yes, I think the trade down scenario is great. This team doesn’t need depth, they need talent. The more you trade down, the less likely it is you find it.
You could replace the term “starter” with “star” and the result is the same. We took Collier with #29 & DK with #64. Its all about maximizing your chances and trading down gives you more of them.
OR, you could trade down and maximize your top pick while still hitting on your second and third rounders. That is why our roster has taken a talent hit the past few years. Top picks arent’ carrying their own weight and the later draft picks are more productive.
I think they are reaching with that first pick because they want to fill a need. I’m sure they have higher players on their board that they could take. Take the best players and fill needs thru FA and trade and don’t try to do something out of desperation. But do you think they will do that? Hell no. I’ve been a little disappointed with their first picks and I don’t expect that to change.
IF we had pick 10, I would not want to trade down, I would be thrilled to draft a true top shelf talent.
Pick 27 heck yeah, trade down.
DK is a star in making. What is your point? You don’t like how long it takes?
Michael – you are a complete headache, dude.
DK is absolutely a star in the making. They traded up for a high ceiling player and put him in a position to play towards his strengths. That’s a good process, IMO. I have said repeatedly, that JS has had his hits – do you not believe in any sort of gray area here?
I mean, c’mon dude.
I think your complaining without evidence of a better process is lazy and petulant.
If there is gray then go with the flow.
Seattle’s success came from a group of “difference makers” that no one thought would be “starters” based upon where they were drafted.
Wagner – 2nd round
Wilson – 3rd round
Baldwin – UDFA
Chancellor – 5th round
Sherman – 5th round
This whole dialogue has completely derailed…you know what all those guys had in common? Yes, they were doubted – they also had special traits and I’m saying that recently, they have targeted more guys who lack a special trait.
Wagner – athleticism
Wilson – every tool minus height
Baldwin – rare agility / route running
Chancellor – Size / Strength
Sherman – Length / Processor
All guys had special traits.
The ones who have had special traits seem to work out for them because Pete is great at playing to guys strengths. DK is a great example of that. You know who didn’t have special traits? Collier, Blair, Barton. *Using last year as an example and yes, it’s early.
I don’t like the process of trading down and playing it safe (with traits/skill sets) when they are in dire need of difference makers.
Again, I’m not saying JS hasn’t had hits. He wouldn’t have a job if he didn’t have any hits.
Matt, the math does not back you up on this. A comprehensive draft study demonstrates that trading back for more picks creates a greater likelihood of finding both starters and pro bowlers. I wrote an article on the confidence bias that referenced this research several years ago.
I can’t get into the link without a paywall and/or time for me to change settings, but I agree with the probability based decision making you outlined and generally agree with the approach.
There is a time and place to go for stars vs. starters though.
I’d be interested to learn the probability of different levels of productivity per round (or range of picks would be more accurate since a round is arbitrary).
A step further would be to construct an updated draft pick trade chart based on that analysis, the value of having a star vs. starter at different positions and a model that projects the effectiveness of your current roster in the coming years. Potentially even an analysis of the ideal mix of stars vs. starters on a roster to identify how your current team is balanced.
You’d probably want a separate model that evaluates draft picks per position based on a set of characteristics per position that have proven out over time. That would allow you to create a vertical and horizontal board based on data. You could even add FA to the boards for an overall off-season plan.
I’m sure most if not all pro sports teams are leveraging big data in this way now or at least they should.
From my experience, the key is to use the data in combination with human observation/model correction and not in place of it. Nerds rule. I recently read a great book on probabilistic based decision making called “Thinking in Bets” if anyone is interested.
Absolutely. I agree with the premise, but Tre Flowers is a draft hit/starter. Does he help you win a Super Bowl?
No, he does not. This team doesn’t need average starting talent – it needs difference makers.
Byron Maxwell, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, KJ Wright, Brandon Mebane, Big Red are all telling you to stop.
You are whining about good process.
Go review the Browns last 10 first and second round picks and come back and tell me how that process works better.
“You are whining about a good process.”
Then you list names from 10 years ago…
I’m whining about a process that has produced a stagnant talent level going on 4+ years while leaving massive holes at paramount positions.
Chris Carson, Shaquille, Coleman, Lockett, etc.
All gained by trading down and then coming up to get your guy.
I appreciate this kind of analysis but I think it fails to address the human nature of the NFL.
The Draft is not a meritocracy but we tend to pretend it is. First round picks represent a significant investment and are expected to drive jersey sales, spark interest in the NFL season, and protect the job security of GM that made the pick.
That’s how Randy Moss fell in the draft. And Frank Clark. And DK Metcalf. GMs are typically risk averse and prefer decisions that are easier to back up and explain. There are very few GMs that have the job security to truly make the pick the way they want.
Further, if you’ve invested in a first round pick, that player is likely to get more reps and opportunity in practice. A UDFA is lucky to get a chance with the 2nd team. A first round pick will also get multiple opportunities in the league because they have the clout of being a first round pick (with few exceptions). All of these things play into the “success” rate of first round picks.
You also have to consider is that these GMs often answer to men who get a lot of their information from the big draft pundits, radio and non-football sources. I know it sounds ridiculous but think of owners like Jerry Jones, Dan Snyder, etc. So if an owner is reading Kiper, he may have a different feeling on a player than the GM. And the GM may feel pressured to make an easily explainable pick. That way if it goes wrong he can point to several big boards and say “See? No one thought this would happen.”
Lastly, the media hypes these players up and they play a huge role in making these players house hold names. They want people to be invested in their content so they will hype up their high visibility players. To this day, I feel like Russell Wilson deserved Offensive Rookie of the Year, but RGIII was the big exciting pick. Russell was a third rounder. For years, Earl was talked about as the most important piece of the LoB, and I really think it was Kam. That’s no disrespect to Earl, he is a phenomenal player, but Kam was the captain on the field and the tone setter. He was the Lynch of the defense. But Earl was the first rounder, and it made the talking points easier.
There is a huge amount of politics and human judgment that goes into the draft that is not talked about. Part of the reason we consistently do well in the late rounds is because Pete and John (for the most part) give players a fair shake. They are as excited about their seventh rounder as they are about their first. It’s served them really well. Is that to say there is not a talent gap between the 10th pick and the 110th pick? Of course not. But the draft is also not as simple as saying our pick at 27 has a higher chance for superstar production because history says first rounders are more commonly superstars.
One of the worst things that has happened in the last 3-4 years is the analysts have built up contacts and now use them to base their projections. People like Todd McShay, Daniel Jeremiah and Mel Kiper are barely analysts anymore. They are vehicles for the information doing the rounds in the league. Players move up and down boards or up and down mock drafts based on what a source passes on in a phone conversation or text exchange.
That isn’t analysis. That isn’t honest opinion. And it’s open to being exploited.
It’s no different with Ian Rapoport who has gone to bat for Tua this off-season. We can only guess on his motive but there will be one.
Exactly. You even have the Kentwan Balmer scandal with Kiper from several years ago.
All these things should remind us that a first round pick is not always picked due to talent, and those players that are picked later are not always given the fair opportunity to succeed. And that is without going into how you define “talent”. I think there should be less focus on where a player is picked and more focus on who was picked and where they are going.
Boiling it down to First Round Picks are more talented because they succeed more misses the imperfections that are present throughout the draft process. Would DK have a less percentage chance of succeeding if he was taken one pick later and been a 3rd rounder? Or was he always going to do well with Wilson regardless if he was taken in the first, second, or third round??
Well…
trading for clowney speaks otherwise to this. Extra draft stock+jacob martin would be nice to have right now.
Metcalf, Carson, and Quentin Dunbar aren’t $1 bills.
Has this team become better or worse over the last 3-4 years? Yes or no?
Take away the QB and where does this roster rank?
Yes – John Schneider has obviously had some nice hits in recent years. If he didn’t have any – he wouldn’t be a GM. The fact remains this team is not closer to getting back to the Super Bowl because they have far more misses than hits in recent years – and part of that comes from the fact that he continually waters down draft capital and cap space.
More new pro bowlers since 2014 than NE.
Do me a favor. Show us a process with “better results” in the same draft area and we’ll talk.
I’ll give you McDowell over TJ Watt sucked… The rest is just whining.
You’re assuming that they are passing on guys that they want though.
They traded down in 2016 to get a 3rd and take Ifedi. There were no other OL taken before him.
What if they stayed put in 2017 and drafted Takkarsit McKinley or Taco Charleton (who were the next two DL off the board) instead of trading down for Malik?
What if they just stayed put in 2018 and drafted Penny who was obviously the RB they wanted? Would he be more valuable because we took him at #18 instead of #27? If they could have traded down again, maybe they get ‘stuck’ with Chubb and pick up a 3rd to draft Pro-bowler Orlando Brown.
Last year, it felt like they missed out on some guys but they only had 4 picks, so trading back was a necessity.
As Gerry said above, if you trade back from a top 10 pick, you are passing on more of a sure thing. When you get to the back half of the first round, the hit rate for ‘stars’ drops significantly.
Notice Rob talking about the 9ers. He’s predicting they take a player at #13 and then trade back from #31. Take the more sure thing and then add capital with the late 1st to get a couple of cracks at hitting on a guy.
Who will be there at #27 that we just can’t pass on? I agree we need some difference makers, but if you’re getting Brandon Aiyuk or KJ Hamler AND Jabari Zuniga, the odds favor taking the second in my oinion.
I wonder if the 40’s is to far for them. I could possibly see them doing it with more than one trade if there board still has players they like but I wouldnt think they would go straight from 27 to the 40’s.
“Schneider should steal you away fom us.” Hope not. I am addicted to this blog. I would be lost without Rob. But a guy has got to do what is best for him/family.
Rob, since this article/interview is with PFF, I had a couple of observations from their site that had me curious about your take.
1. They have Isaiah Wilson ranked as the 9th best GUARD. I haven’t heard anyone talk of him kicking inside.
2. Ben Bartch ahead of Austin Jackson/Ezra Cleveland. Have you watched much of Bartch. Seems like he’s moving up boards, and Pauline talked him up after the Senior Bowl. No TEF numbers and shorter arms, so unlikely to be on our board?
3. They ranked John Penisini (DT – Utah) as #10 DT, any chance you’ve looked at him? Surprised they had him over Fotu.
4. Jabari Zuniga is no where to be found. Jeremy Chinn ranked as #10 S. Logan Wilson ranked as #10 LB.
(I guess I’m just surprised by these grades).
Thanks for keeping us entertained and engaged. 10 days to go!
Penisini just meh for me. Nothing special.
No way Wilson is a guard.
Bartch was awesome at the senior bowl.
I don’t agree with a lot of those grades but it’s ok to disagree.
https://imgur.com/a/5ysY81Y
Its from here:
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/04/13/nfl-draft-rumors-coronavirus-life-peter-king/
First interview (written or recording) ive heard with anyone from PFF, so that was super cool.
Thanks Rob!
My pleasure, thanks for listening.
I would love to see the offensive line improve. I would love to see them draft three solid offensive line picks and build from that, But it appears that the Seahawks are content to build via free agency, Just look at all the players (is it four now?) they are bringing in. I don’t think they will make a high pick on the offensive line this year.
If you rule that out, then the other offensive positions they might pick for are wide receiver or running back. Of the two, a wide receiver would make the most sense in the first round. Running backs have gotten devalued and can be taken later. Wide receivers can be taken later, but the skill set is better the higher you pick. Adding another Metcalf caliber wide receiver would really improve the passing game.
So what I’m leading up to is: the Seahawks would probably either take a wide receiver in the first round, or trade down and pick 2-3 defensive guys first. Then concentrate on rounding out the offense from the 4th round down. What do you think about that strategy?
I wouldn’t rule out an offensive tackle with the first pick at all. Brandon Shell is the only RT on the roster and his contract screams hedge. I could easily see them adding an OT at #27 or after a small move down.
It would be great if they would pick an offensive tackle. I just think that the number of vets they have brought in precludes it. Maybe a late round tackle will be drafted as insurance. I’m beginning to think the first three rounds will be elsewhere. And I understand that choosing a linebacker, defensive end and defensive tackle would be just as tempting. So many holes to fill!!!!!
I saw a tweet the other day that showed we dont have any OL starters, or new signings for more than a 1 or 2 years. We really nned to get a tackle with pick 1 if one is still there. Might not be able to chance trading down either.
I’m not sure that I would agree about the value of RB. I think you get the most value from a RB on their rookie deal, and taking one in the first round grants you the 5th year option. Christian McCaffery is one of, if not the best RB in the league, yet he’s paid as the 16th. The problem comes from overpaying a RB on their 2nd deal (Gurley/David Johnson/Lamar Miller) when they are being paid top 10 money for little to no value.
At this point, the only position’s I think we can rule out of the first 3 picks is CB (nothing new) and probably S. I think we can assume that at least one of the picks will be DL too. Everything else, I think is still on the board.
I disagree with this. The dollar allocation relativeness is greater for an OT or DE, opposed to TE and RB being near the bottom. A rookie deal (for illustrative purposes) for 27th overall is say 5 mill. It doesn’t matter the position. Top RB cost at most 10 mill. so you fill the 10 mill hole with a 5 mill player. The top level DEs are getting 20+ mill, so by drafting DE you fill the 20 mill hole with a 5 mill player. I do agree that you get the most of the RB in his rookie contract though, but I disagree it is more money wise to draft a RB early opposed to other positions. That being said, I still would very much like our first pick to be Taylor after a trade down. The player value is there, even if the money allocation is not. Your getting a better talent and player with a later pick. But again, when thinking about roster building, it may be more valuable to draft say a Akers in the later 3rd (where I think he ends up going) or a Moss later 4th. Either go Uche-Davis-Gay-Greenard/Anae-Akers or Taylor-Davis-Hunt-Greenard/Anae-BPA.
In a vacuum, I agree that absolute value of a DE vs a RB tilts to the former. The problem is that the best OL/DE don’t last to the end of the first round. Anyone that is there at 27 is likely to need a year or two to be a contributor.
For as much as many like Isaiah Wilson, he’s best served getting a year under his belt as he’s pretty raw. A good RB can come in and start on Day 1. You can also land the best RB in a draft class at #27, but more like the 5th best OT or DL.
If we were drafting at #7 instead of #27 then sure. I just don’t think we rule out RB as one of our first 3 picks based on the ‘RB position being devalued’
lol. CMC just got PAID. Not #16 anymore.
I agree with that. Whish is what I was alluding to at the end when advocating for Taylor. And then after I posted, I see CMC sign for 16 mill a year haha
“For as much as many like Isaiah Wilson, he’s best served getting a year under his belt as he’s pretty raw.”
The beauty of it is that he can get a year under his belt before having to start. Or, if he just wins the job outright, all the better.
DaVon Hamilton really might be the best option at defensive tackle if we can draft him day 2.
Aw man, RIP to Tarvaris Jackson. What a legend man. Only backup to get super bowl snaps in the last 20 years.
Bad news…
Does the Isaiah Wilson situation remind anyone else of Braden Smith?
Not physically, but both players were not very highly regarded by the general draft community, but we liked both of them here. I remember talk about Smith having to move inside. Smith has been a really good right tackle for the colts. Isaiah Wilson will be a good right tackle in this league.
Went back and watched the 1 on 1 Sr Bowl competitions for both the North and the South.
My thoughts:
1) Josh Uche is a man without a position. He is too small to play end, and may not have the hips to play LB.
2) Cushenberry is really strong. Great technician. Not a great mover. Might be a better fit to Ruiz
3) Damien Lewis is effing awesome. Great feet, great hands, tough as hell. Needs to get stronger, but the man can play in 2020
4) Ben Bartch is super intriguing. Shorter arms, but those feet. He is super intriguing
5) Zuniga is the versital athlete I imagine the Seahawks covet.
6) Anae is my preferred small, try hard guy over Uche. Guy just knows how to rush.
7) Adeniji is super intriging. Great feet, strong, good hands. Leans a bit. Shows great recovery ability.
8) Hennesey and Stenberg disappointed. Both showed well. in the game. Same for Harris. Strange.
9) Gallimore is quick. Hamiliton is not. Hamilton is strong and stout. Gallimore is small and light.
10) Jonah Jackson is intriguing. May be there late when Seattle likes OL.
11) Marlon Davidson is intriguing. Bummer he tweaked an ankle.
12) Terell Lewis. I went back and watched LSU – Bama. He has so much you like. He is a 3-down player. He is just all power no twitch… he is a lighter Epenesa. Now, if he is healing still from the 2018 ACL, maybe he is awesome in 2020.
13) Loved Greenards feel for DE
My dream draft would be something like this:
– Cushenberry
– Lewis
– CEH
– Zuniga
– Greenard
There is really no talent worthy of the 27th pick unless someone falls. Really interesting, mean and potatoes draft… in my uneducated view.
Oh… one more thing. Zack Baun did not lose one rep in 1 on 1’s. He is not a great cover LB. My god he is intriguing for a specialist rush role.
In every draft there is a great player selected at #27 or later.
And does anyone actually rise or fall? Or is it just perceptions of where they will be drafted changing by the minute?
There will be a great player available to us at #27, of that I have no doubt. Doesn’t mean we will pick that player or stay at #27 though.
I’m catching myself stating opinions as fact. I need to back off a bit.
The premise of no one worthy of 27 is better said, “The group available from 27-64 all have about the same value”.
So, get more of those picks 🙂
My problem with Anae is that he is a horrendous athlete. I just don’t think you can draft a guy like that on the first 2 days. If he can’t overcome his physical limitations – he’s basically a useless player at DE. Uche at least has serious explosion and can play SLB even if the pass rush doesn’t work out. That’s not great, but Anae cannot play anywhere else. Too small for the interior and way too slow for LB.
I agree. Yet, there he is, in the Sr Bowl, destroying tackles… bad one maybe, but destroying all the same.
Same with Baun. Both have great hands, bend well, understand leverage. They are better footballers to that of Uche, Davidson.
But they are not 3-down players… so, ultimately, you are right.
Baun or Anae at 101, sign me up.
I have this nagging feeling Baun is going to be a lot like TJ Watt. And that will piss me off.
Dang, 4 years $64 million for Christian McCaffery.
Those are monstrous numbers. Obviously the Gurley situation didnt alter there thoughts. Some say its better to do it early than late with the RB.
You could probably do the 5th year tender and a franchise tag (or maybe even two) for less. Less cap flexibility but the commitment is mitigated.
Thats the tough debate. Do the extension after year three and for years 5-8 or do the 5th year option plus a couple franchise tags. Seems like once you get into the fifth year option or a franchise tag the extension looks less likely. I just dont see the Titans ever going long term on Henry unless they get it done by 7/15.
He is now the unquestioned leader of the offense here in Charlotte.
He is everything the Carolina’s wants in a face of the franchise. We are recovering from losing all our identity. Keuchly and Cam are gone.
New era. Needs a face. It’s a fair bet. The dude balls out like a crazy person every game.
So… what if we put aside all of Seattle’s needs and ask the old 2011 question:
“Who tilts the field?”
Johnathan Taylor? Denzel Mims?
How about Curtis Weaver? Maybe not a good looker, but he can play.
I’m thinking Kenneth Murray, Denzel Mims, Aiyuk, Taylor, Swift, CEH.
Somebody you game plan for. Defense be damned.
I hope Rob is wrong Taylor is available at 34 and we get him there. Taylor will be perfect 3 down player.
If Taylor is available and they draft for need it will be just like passing on TJ Watt again. Draft a player who isn’t as good because they “need” a certain position.
Predicting Ruiz if no trade down, Cushenberry if trade down happens.
Kneels. Prays… “Please trade down for the better fit (Non-Zone Blocking) Center”… “Please!”
Neiko Thorpe back
Championship!!!!!!
yawn. resigned the special teams ace on a team that has had subpar st for multiple seasons. save the $, draft some more kids.
Assuming it is a vet minimum deal you wouldn’t be “saving” more than about $200k by giving the spot to a draft pick here. One of the most popular guys on the team when you hear other guys I thought he has been good as a gunner, and together with Amadi gives you two. He’s not the reason their special teams have been trash the last two seasons.
Lockette, Heath Farwell, Chris Maragos, EZE Thorpe. They’ve always had one or two special teams players. As do the Patriots and Eagles. It may be unexciting – but this isn’t holding them back in any way.
all that is true.
but the the defense is still bad, so im a little jaded and bitter
I hear that.
This draft needs to be based on ceiling not floor. We need difference makers. Go big or go home – we don’t need anymore average starters. We need guys who can make a difference, even if it’s just one dimensional.
You think Baun or Uche can get you 10 sacks? Then by God, draft Baun or Uche. Who cares if he only plays on passing downs.
You think Jonathan Taylor can be the best RB in the NFL? Then by God, draft Taylor – who cares if he’s a RB.
You think Cesar Ruiz can be the best Center in the NFL? Pull the damn trigger.
Quit going after average ceiling, high floor guys. You don’t win with average talent. We have an elite QB in his prime…go big or go home.
Bad news, we stopped at the bar, gave Finney, Shell, Ogbuehi, and Warmack a ride back home with us.
Also we left Clowney sitting at the bar by himself, and he’s considering moving to Cleveland now.
That is depressing all-around.
I love that Delpit might be a realistic target at 27 or after a trade down.
Where did you get that?
I think there’s 0% chance the hawks get him with their first pic, regardless of what number it is.
I wrote this comment in response to your most recent 2-round mock. Unfortunately I didn’t feel well enough to finish and post it until today. I realize it’s a little stale but I want to make sure you know how I feel.
I really enjoyed this mock. It’s definitely different — not so much for SEA but for the rest of the draft. I respect your willingness to be flexible, especially in such a strange pre draft environment like this. There’s a lot of uncertainty this year, not only because of coronavirus, but also because it’s just that kind of draft class. Daniel Jeremiah summed it up pretty good in this tweet:
@MoveTheSticks
Most teams agree on top 4 WR’s and top 2 CB’s (the names, not the order) but then it gets wild. One team’s 5th WR might be another team’s 12th WR. One teams 3rd CB is another teams 8th CB. Can’t remember a year like this one. Impossible to predict anything after top 15-20 picks.
You could say the same thing for other positions like OL, RB and S. Lots of subjectivity this year, made even worse by the limitations imposed by the pandemic.
When you said you were going DL at 64, I thought Justin Madubuike made the most sense for SEA. BTW, of all the DL likely to be available at that pick, I like Raekwon Davis the most. His fairly unique physical profile gives him tremendous upside. And Cesar Ruiz’s comment that Davis was the toughest player to defend just seals the deal for me. But if Davis is not available, then Madubuike looks good. But then you mentioned the injury concern which I hadn’t heard. If that’s accurate, under the circumstances, that just might be enough to move off from him in this range.
When you mentioned going for an interior DL like a NT, at first I thought Rashard Lawrence. He’s pretty stout, can plug a gap well and is hard to move. But then you said you were looking to replace Al Woods and instantly I thought of Davon Hamilton. Not that they’re similar players, but they would play similar roles on SEA’s DL. Hamilton doesn’t get the same press as some of the other DTs in this class, and he’s not rated as high on the PFN simulator, but I think it’s a great pick. I’d be fine with it if that’s how it went down. I’ll say this: Devon Hamilton is a grown ass man. He’s a good football player. I still like Madubuike and I hope he’s an option. He’s got a lot of what SEA like in a 3T. But I can envision Hamilton at 1T next to Reed. I think he could help fortify the interior of the the DL and restore the foundation of the fantastic run defense of the super bowl teams.
I haven’t been able to listen to each interview as you posted them. I’ve been listening to them later, and I’ve been lax about commenting on them when I do. So I want to take a moment to commend you on all of it. I’ve really enjoyed the player interviews. It’s a compelling perspective that I’ve never really seen before, and the way you interview, it’s all very casual and comfortable and real. The execs are very interesting too; they have so much experience. I forgot McCloughan was GM at SF. He’s got some John Madden to him. A boyish exuberance that makes him loads of fun to listen to.
I want to say overall that I’m really proud of you. I’ve known you for a long time. I’ve participated in this community with you for a long time. It’s been amazing to watch you establish yourself as an American football journalist. The highest compliment I can pay you is to say that I think you’re highly innovative. You aren’t just doing “your thing” you’re evolving your thing, and your thing is becoming a new and novel thing, and that’s a really good thing. Kudos to you. It’s been enormously rewarding being on this ride with you. I know it’s all your work, but I’m always rooting for my own. Congratulations.
Are you feeling better ?
Nice read, very well said!
Wouldn’t it just be great if we could afford to pick a player like Willie Gay Jr.? He’s one of the players in the draftcould actually contribute to the defense right away by adding speed, BAMF, he can defend the perimeter run as well. But with this confusing offseason, I guess not.
I really like that post. I almost posted something very much like that several times, but I know with our current needs he is more of a luxury and probably will not be available after we fill our other needs. But I will say this, if we do select him I think that means something good is happening with our draft and JS has a few things sorted out that are not currently sorted out now. Drafting a difference maker like that I believe means that we are turning the corner on becoming the team we need to be.
Exactly. If we did solve the pass rush needs earlier, we could afford a luxury pick like him. This defense needs an injection of talent as Rob always says; Willie Gay Jr. can be that injection.
So I haven’t watched a lot of Willie Gay Jr, but when I read this as the negative on the PFN Sim player profile, it seems like that is what we need from our SAM the most – to cut off the corners on outside runs!
Negatives: Despite his 40 time, does not show great range and struggles to cut off the corners from ball carriers. Average pursuit ability and ball skills.
And this doesn’t seem like a glowing review either:
Analysis: Gay possesses the size and speed to develop into a productive linebacker at the next level. He must keep his focus on the field and learn to play at a high level on every down to have a career in the NFL.
He does have his negatives as listed above, but he does have potential with his athleticism. Plus, he can learn from the NFL’s best in Bobby Wagner on and off the field.
That is true, but most of what you read about him questions whether he could be a middle LB. Seems like the consensus is he’s better suited to being a SAM, so that would be replacing KJ right? Gay is an interesting player for sure, but I sort of feel like he is a boom or bust guy…
My latest mock (first 133 picks). I tried to use your newest Tier-list and a chart with the biggest needs for every team. Will only list the most dropped names:
29 OT Wilson Titans
30 WR Aiyuk Packers
32 RB CEH Chiefs
38 DT Davis Panthers
39 DE Uche Dolphins
42 DE Okwara Jaguars
61 DT Madabuike Titans
63 G/T Hunt Chiefs
72 DE Weaver Cardinals
74 LB Gay Browns
78 RB Akers Falcons
80 CB Hall Raiders
Seahawks picks:
Pick Original Team Player Pos Traded to
36 Giants Jones OT Seahawks (27)
53 Eagles Zuniga DE Seahawks (59,144,150)
71 Chargers Hamilton DT Seahawks (64)
99 Giants Robertson CB Seahawks (27)
101 Seahawks Van Jefferson WR
112 Chargers Dillon RB Seahawks (64)
133 Seahawks Dotson G
214 Seahawks Metellus S
238 Giants Montez QB Seahawks (27)
Sold.
I try to learn from the draft dims, and what I’ve learned so far is that if I go into this hoping to ‘fix’ our DL I’m going to be *very* frustrated. So I tried something different – just go get players I actually want on the team:
25
Round: 1
Grant Delpit
S | LSU LSU TRADE
59
Round: 2
Brandon Aiyuk
WR | Arizona State
64
Round: 2
Seahawks Logo
Justin Madubuike
DL | Texas A&M
116
Round: 4
Seahawks Logo
Michael Ojemudia
CB | Iowa TRADE
133
Round: 4
Seahawks Logo
Devin Asiasi
TE | UCLA
166
Round: 5
Seahawks Logo
Trevis Gipson
EDGE | Tulsa
187
Round: 6
Seahawks Logo
Anthony McFarland Jr.
RB | Maryland
221
Round: 7
Seahawks Logo
Jake Luton
QB | Oregon State
The 7th is basically a throwaway so I just kind of went random (it seems to glitch it if you trade into a pick that’s on the clock, so I did a weird trade up/1 slot trade down to fix it). Sure, it doesn’t fix the pass rush. But we’re not doing that anyway, at this point. Obviously, Delpit isn’t actually sliding that far. But the questions I came out of it with are:
1) how far does he need to slide before you start thinking about going after him?
2) who else is just a dude that you’d be excited to see the team draft in each round, just straight up ignoring the current roster?
I think Delpit could very well slide to 27 and I don’t think we’d take him. I can’t really see any realistic scenario where he’s a Hawk. Safety is probably the absolute lowest priority on our current roster. Rob has mentioned a few times in the comments that drafting Delpit not only ignores all of our other needs, but essentially writes off Blair as a wasted pick.
Guys I would like to see be Seahawks:
1. Denzel Mims/KJ Hamler
2. CEH
3. Patrick Queen: While he might look more like a safety than a linebacker at the moment, he’s got enough explosiveness to make up for it. He’s still a raw athlete though who is only picking up the intricacies of zone coverage. Unteachable tools though. (PFF)
4. Jonathan Greenard: His run defense is very impressive at 263lbs. You can play him on early downs. He has unnatural length (35 inch arms) for his height (6-3) and he’s powerful enough to stun offensive tackles, create separation and then play the ball carrier. He did this against Georgia’s Isaiah Wilson at 350lbs. (RS)
5. L’Jarius Sneed: Looked like a top potential top-100 choice as a cornerback in 2018, but his game took a step back when he moved to safety as a senior. He’s an athletic prospect with outstanding size, and he’ll be a steal during the last day of the draft for the team that moves Sneed back to cornerback and properly develops him. (TP)
6. John Reid: This should surprise no one. My favorite slot CB this year.
7. Jake Breeland: Was heading for a monster year before injury. Good blocker, better receiver.
Maven’s Breakdown on Bruce Irvin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IOPJE47X-M
Rob, how do you see Lynn Bowden or Tyler Johnson as part of the receiving corps? Two different styles, that’s for sure. Tyler Johnson is that jump ball, red zone/red line and hands receiver that would be a good complement for DK and Lockett in that they do different things. Bowden is Mr. Versatile. He played QB because Kentucky was so short handed. He took hand offs, he caught passes, and he threw passes. Lots of TDs and as an added bonus he returned punts. But his route running is a little raw. Any chance we pick any of those guys?
I like Johnson but for whatever reason his stock is lower than a snakes belly and I’m not sure how quick he is. Bowden I haven’t really studied yet.
Watched it. He did a pretty good job with it.
Another great interview. Pretty consistent with others views about the Seahawks and their draft needs. As for the Senior Bowl, I think that they view it as the safest route. Seattle has not had a shot at true top end talent since they drafted Bruce. Most drafts have limited true first round talents and their success has taken them out of that realm. The senior Bowl seems must more transparent than the combine. The participants are motivated and mature. It reminds me of taking college players over high schoolers in the MLB draft. Players have a higher floor. If they had the chance in the early first they would roll the dice on high potential like they did with Bruce and Earl.
I am trying to make horizontal board with PFF rankings and I cant do all 7 rounds (I will do 5). But what shocked me is I noticed I cant find Zuniga in that 5 rounds and reason for that is they graded Zuniga as 6th round player. 181th player on Mike big board. Unreal.
Yeah I don’t get that
I quit…I lose 3 hours of my life but I don’t think this has any sense…4th round or lower: Isaiah Wilson, Matt Peart, Lucas Niang, Tega Wanogo(6th)Raekwon Davis, Jabari Zuniga(6th), Jonathan Greenard(6th), JK Dobbins, Cam Akers, Loyd Cushenberry, John Simpson (6th round) DPJ, Jeremy Chinn, Bryan Edwards, (129th player) etc etc…
Those are some out there grades
You’ve inspired me. I’m going to use PFF, Zierlein and PFN to create a chart. To be in round 1 it will have to be a consensus. Consensus picks will have to be in respective rounds and some kind of average used for the others. Only problem is I’ll have to do it while my wife’s in the shower.
Please share this if you finish it!
Barely linked to Seahawks potential draft pick, but would be Kenny Willekes an interesting pass rusher to take a look in middle rounds, perhaps 4th or 5th?
Just not twitchy enough and doesn’t have the length. An effort rusher who gives it all but at the next level just hard to imagine him being a difference maker.
Madre Harper had insane numbers at his pro day. Former teammate of Tre Flowers and Chris Carson. Wore 25 because of Richard Sherman.
Late to the party, I see… 😏
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/seahawks-seven-round-mock-draft-5#comment-485466
There’s always one. Cant find any cutups tho
Yeah just heard him on pedestrian podcast.
Rob. Hypothetical question. The Hawks don’t sign Clowney. Let’s say a week before training camp. Ngakoue still is demanding a trade. Would you trade next year’s ( 2021 ) first round pick for Ngakoue ?
I’m not going anywhere near this. Let’s get to that point then discuss it.
I will take that as à yes.
No, you should take it as I’m not going there and if it gets to that point I’ll discuss it then.
Haha. Talk about hearing what you want to hear.
I’m ramping up my search to find Seahawky prospects for the later rounds of the draft.
Here I’ve found a new candidate for most underwhelming tape compared to great workout numbers and production: LB Casey Toohill, Stanford. (I think Von asked about him a few weeks ago)
6043, 250, 33.5″ arm, 4.62 40yd, 1.54 10yd, 39” vert, 10’6″ broad, 4.21 SS, 7.08 3C, 17 bench.
Listed as LB at the Combine, but plays more as a DE/OLB. Don’t know how he managed to get 8 sacks and 11.5 TFL last season. Tape vs. UCLA looked terrible to me. I didn’t see any of those explosive traits at all, he looks super weak, gets swallowed up by Tackles and doesn’t beat anyone with his supposed speed and agility. Just weird.
To his credit, he does show discipline to hold the edge vs. the run and shed blocks fairly well.
Hey Sea Mode, take a look at CB/S Julian Blackmon of Utah when you get a chance. Slot corner/FS hybrid player that seems to have great instincts – there is a highlight of him blowing up a screen pass against Oregon that is just awesome! Sees the play develop and is shot out of a cannon to drop the WR/RB behind the LOS!
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/julian-blackmon?id=3219424c-4128-3027-fdc4-2c27128f84f7
https://sportsnaut.com/2019/12/watch-utahs-julian-blackmon-with-bone-crushing-hit-to-open-pac-12-championship-game/
Have you looked at Utah CB/S Julian Blackmon at all? There is an awesome highlight of him blowing up a screen against Oregon that shows his ability to diagnose plays and then fly in and make a play!
Sorry for the double post…
A few other late round guys that are interesting to me:
WR/KR Joe Reed from Virgina
WR Isaiah Coulter from Rhode Island
And CB/S L’Jarius Sneed from Louisiana Tech
Sneed is really intriguing to me too. They moved him to safety because they didn’t have any better options, but he could be a nice developmental corner. PFN scouting report said he was looking like a top 100 prospect before they moved him from CB.
I’ve been watching Reed today. Lowest drop rate of the entire class led me to him. But I haven’t reached a conclusion yet.
Looked at Coulter a while back and he didn’t really interest me.
Will look into Blackmon and Sneed soon. NCB will be the next position group I go through.
Sweet, thanks for doing this!
Do you see the potential in Reed to be a KR/PR/ST player? And I also thought he could be a guy to take a jet sweep or screen just to get him the ball in space…
Awesome work Sea Mode! Your effort is very appreciated.
Hey Rob,
Incredible work as always but the amount of quality interviews has been fascinating. It is greatly appreciated and a much needed entertainment in these tough times.
Does PFF have similar win %’s from last year’s Senior Bowl class? Would be interested to see how Collier and others numbers stack up to this year’s class.
Thanks!
Yep…
Top pass rushers
L.J. Collier — 90% (!!!)
Montez Sweat — 75%
Oshane Ximines — 75%
Charles Omenihu — 62%
Top defensive tackles:
Kingsley Keke — 87%
Khalen Saunders — 83%
Greg Gaines — 82%
Dylan Mack — 67%
Renell Wren — 67%
Demarcus Christmas — 63%
So based on this, it appears to be something they pay attention to.
I figured there might be a pattern. How about for OL? I know we didn’t draft any but it might be a predictor for NFL success.
Clicked off the guide now but I know Garrett Bradbury did well.
Did another mock. Couple of my preconceptions going into the draft:
1, Okwara is the most LEO-like between Zuniga, Uche and him
2, Hawks value RB
3, Hawks won’t pick DT in R1 or R2 (Hamilton/Lawrence or Fotu are the main targets)
Traded with Colts 27->44, 75, 160
With Vikes 101, 144, 216, 2021 R3 -> 89
I’d really like this haul:
44 – Julian Okwara, DE Notre Dame
59 – Zack Baun, OLB Wisconsin
64 – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB LSU
75 – Prince Tega Wanogho, OT Auburn
89 – Davon Hamilton, DT Ohio State
133 – Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR Liberty
160 – Kevin Dotson, G Louisiana
2 successfull passrusher. Baun could be an OLB/situational rusher on passing downs, Okwara LEO
CEH is probably the best RB (unlikely he falls to 64, but who knows, not likely but not 10000% unreasonable)
Prince could be a good project and in 1-2 year he could man LT or RT
Hamilton is a great power 1T. Would be awesome next to Reed
Gandy-Golden could fight for WR3 with Dotson and Moore. Not a great WR, but all the others were long gone
Dotson could be a good OG
This would address the passrush, both lines and add a couple interesing skill players.
NCB was left out which is a bummer, but couldn’t pick one early and there are no good options after R4
I love that haul. The only one I am unfamiliar with is the WR from Liberty. Thanks for sharing.
Only rarely does the draft present a R1 LT talent available in the lower half-dozen picks. Given that Duane Brown has only a year or two in the tank, is an increasing injury risk, and there is no legit backup LT on the team, I believe the Seahawks must draft Austin Jackson or Ezra Cleveland at #27. Both are exceptional athletes tailored for LT, but a year behind Duane will allow them to add strength for the running game. Seems a no-brainer to me.
I don’t think Jackson will be there. Cleveland might be though.
Rob, how far of a drop are Niang and Wanogho from Cleveland or Jackson? Do you see them as the type of players that could compete right away at RT and them move over after to LT after a couple years?
Maybe that’s just wishfull thinking and they should just draft a RT now and LT next year! Or trade for another vet when they need to!
It’s hard to say without testing numbers. Jackson has a lot more potential than the rest I’d say.
I agree. They have to take advantage of the opportunity to get a high level OT. An opportunity like this doesn’t happen very often.
Rob,
At this point, with pass rush being the biggest need and no obvious solution, I think the Seahawks could end up dealing #27 to JAX for Yannick on draft night. As you’ve said numerous times, they’re not fixing the pass rush with any name at #27, and I’m holding JS to his word fixing this thing. I think the biggest difference comparing paying Yannick to Clark (last year) is that Seattle needed the picks last year to play with. If they had the luxury of paying Clark while still having some draft capital they would have. As far as comparing Yannick to Clowney, I think they ultimately view Yannick as a better pass rusher without the injury concern. Kind of what LZ said on the podcast, Clowney can wreck havoc but the fact of the matter is that he only had 3.0 sacks last season. I think they’d be more comfortable paying that money to a proven pass rusher who’s healthy. All while still having two picks in the second round for a DT/OT. If you can add Yannick and say, Raekwon Davis/Devon Hamilton, while resigning Reed, not to mention Irvin/Mayowa — I think it’s safe to say that is an upgrade. Would love to hear your thoughts and thanks again for all the insight.
I think if it happens with Ngakoue it’ll be early next week. Same kind of timeframe as Frank Clark. Very rarely players are traded on draft night because you need a contract structure in place with the player.
I’m not sure on Ngakoue. If they’re not willing to pay big money for Clark or Clowney I can’t see them paying big money for him.
Agree that it seems unlikely they will be willing to give up picks and pay YN and not pay Clark or Clowney. And are we sure YN is really a better pass rusher than JC? Or has he just played on a much better def line?
I think he’s a good pass rusher and he also has a pissed off attitude that I like. But Clark and Clowney are on a different level physically and Ngakoue’s production isn’t so good to be a difference maker there. I can’t imagine them refusing to pay Clark and Clowney then giving up a high pick for the right to pay Ngakoue instead.
What are the rules about a player signing a franchise tender with a team 1, then trading him to team 2, but team 1 still responsible for a portion of the cap hit that year?
Similar to what HOU did with Clowney last year, but is there a limit?
If JAX gets a 1st for Ngakoue, but agreed to be responsible for 10 million of his 19.3 cap hit that year, then Ngakoue signs a 3 year extension, would the year 1 cap hit be reset or something for the new team?
Could they give him 3 year, 16 million/year extension for a total of 4 years (67.3 million total), but only be responsible for 57.3 million against the cap (14.3 million/year)?
If JAX only option is to trade him, and they’re in a rebuild year, with extra cap space, couldn’t they theoretically offer to be on the hook for all 19.3 million of the tag that year to help facilitate the trade? The team acquiring Ngakoue could potentially pay him 48 million over 4 years @ 12 million/year, while Ngakoue earns 16.8 million/year.
If that’s how it works it seems like there’s 3 main negotiation variables for the trade to happen: Draft Picks, Contract Extension, Year-1 Salary Cap Responsibility.
But if this isn’t how it works, I’ll shut up.
Clowney played with JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus.
True enough, but I’m still not convinced that YN is a better pass rusher than Clowney. Certainly he’s not a more disruptive player, and does not possess the same athleticism. The question really is which player would be the better investment for the Hawks?
Rob,
Great work as always. I just watched a unique video on a kid named Kendrick Willekes. Any thoughts on him? Thoughts on him as say a 5th rd pick?
https://twitter.com/kennyw97/status/1243307171636490241?s=20
Not twitchy. More of an effort guy. Short arms.
May just be me, but none of that looked that impressive. My 30yo fat Hispanic self can do all that but the splits. lol
Lol
I think Rob best described him as an “EFFORT” guy. I hate to say it, but that doesn’t last forever. I was reading that he did well during the Senior Bowl week and the short arms was a big knock on him
Our dude Russ is having a boy! Can’t wait to break him down for the 2041 draft. The blog will still be here right!?
Thank you for another enjoyable interview Rob. I was struck by the comments about Denzel Mims. Given Seattle’s known bias toward top Senior Bowl performers, I love the idea of finding another star receiver “hidden” by a limited college route tree. And Davin Hamilton was selected as the top defensive player by the Senior Bowl offensive players so he is squarely on the radar as well.
https://twitter.com/NFL_Memes/status/1249741929849532422
Fluid hips. Balance allows him to react and change direction quickly. Great recovery speed. Able to blanket receivers and stay in their hip pocket.
No ball skills though…haha!
The 2nd comment.
‘Better than Richard Sherman in the SB’
But he’s PFF’s #1 ranked corner. That means he’s the best one in the game. That’s how this works now. I don’t make the rules.
When did the misinterpretation happen? PFF is supposed to be a tool. Not scripture.
It’s a joke.
Have seen people will argue that Collier is a joke based on his 2019 PFF rank. I swear there are ‘fans’ that have never watched a game.
/smh
Blaming that sentence on my dog.
Considering it’s a dog playing defense, I assume the sarcasm is strong.
There are plenty of average Joe’s who base every argument about a player on PFF’s grades though.
I pointed out to someone last week that last year PFF had Amani Oruwariye going top 25 and he went in the 5th round at pick 146. They miss too.
They’re the only ones who really say “Player X had a 76 score last year” and so people who don’t watch the games, just use that to say “Player Y sucks and we need to trade/cut/bench him. We should trade for Player Z.” It’s just lazy.
43.Raekwon Davis
59.Robert Hunt
64.Willie Gay Jr.
80.Davon Hamilton
81.Bryan Edwards
133.Alton Robinson
144.Kevin Dotson
214.Patrick Taylor Jr.
Not sure if 2 inside Dlinemen are what we need. Im still very high on Poona and Reed. Some backup is needed for sure. But is it worth to spend our first pick in the draft on another DTackle?
Davis and Hamilton are good prospects so I wouldn’t hate it. I would just personally hope to grab Davis later and attack a bigger need first.
KJ is not a SAM.
From last year.
Wright has played some strongside linebacker for Seattle previously, but he told KJR Friday “I’m not going to Sam.”
KJ is the WILL LB correct? Wagner is the MIKE and Kendricks played the SAM role…
+20 mins with Tony Pauline coming in a bit…
Ten minutes ago i was checking how much before draft you did interview with him last year. 😂
Shocking.
Exactly. They sure as heck had better be face-timing with every DL in this draft!
They will do due diligence. But don’t be shocked if they take a chance on him.
It wouldn’t shock me. I’ve mentioned him a few times as an option including just the other day. I’m pretty high on him.
My opinion: he is a 3-down player. He is slight, but has the frame to grow. He already has power. He uses his power well in his rush repitoire. If he is able to begin to trust his knee, he may find enough twitch.
He is a true LEO.
I don’t think he’s slight. I actually think he’s very powerful and well sized. He’s not 250lbs and he’s a big 262lbs. Plus his game is more power than quicks. So I wouldn’t say true LEO. I think he’s more of a 3-4 OLB or in Seattle you maybe get him to fill out to 268-270 and play DE.
Hmm. You bring up an interesting thought with your reply.
Is finding 255 lbs twitchy, hold the edge, stack the line, bend the edge LEO even possible with “Win Forever” without paying top dollar?
Would being more 3-4 with 4-3 principles be a proper subtle change for Pete?
Who made the sun? (kidding)
Sure — you can get any kind of player in any kind of way.
Yesterday someone had a right go at me after I disagreed strongly that Zach Baun couldn’t get up to 250lbs with his frame.
Today, he tested positive for a diluted sample at the combine… because he drank too much water to weigh-in heavier JUST to make 238lbs.
Looked pretty maxed out to me. Why’d he feel so strongly about him getting to 250?
Not sure. As you say, he’s maxed out in the 230’s. And that’s fine for what he is. He’s never going to be a 250lber.
Perfect build for a linebacker/safety hybrid. The problem is coverage is not his strong suit.
Exactly. You run the risk of him adding bad weight and having a negative impact on the things he does well.
You’re right, CaptainJack. During his daily podcasts during Senior Bowl week, Tony Pauline and others reported on their podcasts that Baun wasn’t good at all in coverage. But they kept praising Josh Uche for being great in coverage every day even though it was a new position and skillset for him. Considering that and his pass-rush % is right there with Chase Young, I’d be happy with us selecting Uche with a trade-back into the 2nd round with our 1st, or with one of our other 2nds.
Really looking forward to the Pauline podcast Rob. Have been since you mentioned it a couple weeks ago. He’s my 2nd favorite football podcaster after you.
San Diego St. CB Luq Barcoo has an intriguing profile.
6’1, 180 lbs., 32″ arms, 75″ wingspan
2019 stats: 55 tackles, 5 TFL, 9 INTS, 16 PBU
4.41 40
4.11 SS
6.84 3 cone
11.3 broad jump
41″ vert
Nice. Will add him to the list to check out.
But I think nickel is what they’ll be looking to add this draft, unless a guy like Bryce Hall falls enough that the value is just too good to pass up.
BTW, I read he hadn’t given up a single completion when in press coverage the entire 2019 season right up to his injury.
He has the measurables. Not sure he has the instincts.
Pauline’s write up
He might be able to play some nickel. I also like Kindle Vildor too.
Traded down, focused heavily on the lines:
44. Julian Okwara
59. Raekwon Davis
64. Prince Tega Wanogho
75. Jabari Zuniga
101. Donovan Peoples-Jones
122. Anthony McFarland
133. Leki Fotu
144. Damien Lewis
214. Tyler Bass
Thoughts?
I like it, but your not getting Fotu that late.
And not Damien Lewis either
Not really about the draft. I’ve had the RedZone replay on each day. During the Baltimore and Atlanta games there was this guy wearing the #27 jersey that kept flashing.
Blair may be awesome in 2020. Toasting his trajectory is that of Kam and Sherm.
Back to the draft…
The Seahawks just re-signed and brought Mike Iupati back.