Author: Kip Earlywine (Page 7 of 13)

Written by Kip Earlywine

(Be sure to scroll down and check for new content as Rob and I have been posting updates frequently.  If you missed it, Rob gave his day two reaction which you can read here.)

Russell Wilson is not the best Seahawks Draft pick ever.  Russell Wilson wasn’t the biggest Seahawks draft day value ever (obviously).  Russell Wilson could be, but probably won’t be, the greatest Seahawks quarterback ever.   I’m not saying this is the best pick ever, but anyone that’s done a top ten list of their favorite movies probably realized in short order that there is a big difference between “favorite” and “best.”

Russell Wilson is none of those things, but there was no pick I ever enjoyed hearing in the moment more than this one.  I’ve followed the draft as a Seahawks fan for about 20 years, and this was only the second time that a pick made me leap off the couch and scream in celebration.  The other time was in 2007 when Brandon Mebane somehow reached our third round pick and the Seahawks didn’t repeat their mistake of passing on him in the previous round.

So why so much emotion?  Its because, well, if there is one thing that is consistent every year, it’s that the Seahawks never seem to draft the players I want the most.  This was true for so long that I just accepted it- my favorite players would be playing for other teams- that’s just how the world works. The thought of going through this whole draft without getting Rusell Wilson was a painful one for me.  I might be a bigger believer in Wilson than John Gruden is, if you can imagine that.   So as an emotional safety mechanism, I forced myself to assume that he wouldn’t be a Seahawk.  Seattle would wait until the late rounds for a quarterback and another team, probably Green Bay or Philly or even Pittsburgh, would make him their pick somewhere in the mid rounds.

When the 75th pick arrived, I wasn’t even thinking about Russell Wilson, because picks that I would like this much never happen.  The thought didn’t even cross my mind.  Especially since both Lamar Miller and Chris Polk were available (and are still available). Demario Davis was still there too.  We had heard that quarterback was probably going to be a later-than-this priority, and that was before the team signed Matt Flynn.  In that moment, I was thinking about five potential players the Seahawks could be thinking of, and none of them were Russell Wilson.  Hearing his name called was like getting struck by lightning.

Which is weird, because while I had ruled Wilson out emotionally, intellectually I’ve been saying for months that Russell Wilson makes all the sense in the world for the Seahawks.  I initially covered Wilson in part II of my quarterback series back in late December of last year.  In one of the latter installments I added this:  “The more I think about it, the more realistic Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson appears.”  In the next installment after that, I even floated the hypothetical that John Schneider was talking up guys like Tannehill and Osweiler “to help them get drafted before Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson.”  Back in early March I wrote a “What I think Seattle’s draft could look like” 7 round mock in which I was trying to be as realistic as possible (this was pre-Matt Flynn).  I had Seattle drafting Russell Wilson in round 4.  At the end of my (lengthy) Wilson explanation, I even said that “if it was up to me I’d find a way to draft Wilson even earlier than this.”

Just a few days ago I did a post regarding my top ten quarterbacks and my best guesses for the front office’s top ten.  I had Wilson 3rd on my list, behind only Luck and Griffin, and gave him a 3rd round grade.  Having Wilson that high is controversial to say the least, if not open for mockery.  Maybe it still is, until Wilson shows everyone what I think he can.  I had the Seahawks ranking Wilson 5th, behind Luck, Griffin, Osweiler, and Tannehill, with an estimated front office draft value in the 4th round.

Now that I think about it, I should have at least anticipated the possibility of Wilson at #75.  Teams reach for guys with perceived 4th or 5th round grades in the 3rd round all the time.  The emotional part of my mind and the thinking part of my mind were more than separated, they were divorced.  The kind of ugly divorce where neither side ever talks to the other ever again.  Hearing Wilson’s name being called was surreal.  The most pleasant surprises are often the ones you didn’t suspect the most.  Instantly the safety valves released.  I was able to celebrate the player that I had badly wanted, but wouldn’t allow myself to hope for.  I erupted in a way that I had not since watching the Beastquake come out of nowhere in the Saints playoff game, when just moments earlier it seemed the Seahawks were sinking further and further into certain doom.  It was one of those moments where on the outside I was shouting and high fiving, and on the inside it felt something like this.

I said yesterday that my two favorite players in the whole draft going in (regardless of round) were Bruce Irvin and Russell Wilson.  I figured there was maybe a 10% chance we’d get one of them.  To watch the Seahawks draft both of them… it feels amazing.  I’m just not used to getting players I like this much.

Russell Wilson may not be a lock for the Hall of fame just yet, but he’s got a good chance to be the best quarterback that was actually drafted by the Seahawks.  Since entering the league in 1976, the Seahawks’ history of drafting quarterbacks has been abysmal.  Jim Zorn doesn’t count, he was undrafted (and that was back when the draft went 17 rounds too).  Dave Krieg also went undrafted (12 rounds that year).  Matt Hasselbeck was drafted, but by the Packers.  Warren Moon was a veteran free agent.  Seahawks draft picks at quarterback include Rick Mirer, Dan McGwire, David Greene, and Mike Teel, to name a few.  I think it says a lot when the best Seahawk drafted quarterback of all time is probably Seneca Wallace.

I’m a believer in Wilson’s upside, but even if I’m wrong, Wilson’s floor is a better Seneca Wallace without the problems that limited him, and Seneca Wallace has been one of the league’s better backups for close to a decade now.  Some might say that paying a third for a good backup is too much, but tell that to Chicago, who had a strong playoff run derailed by a lack of a quality backup option.  The difference between a TJ Yates and a Caleb Hanie can define a season.

Regarding the Wallace comparison, it’s important to remember that Wallace wasn’t limited by his height so much as his mind.  He drove everyone crazy by running out of bounds for a loss instead of throwing the ball away.  He didn’t look comfortable running the offense, and often locked onto receivers.  He was mobile, but lacked pocket presence.  In a lot of ways, he was a shorter Tarvaris Jackson.  By contrast, Wilson is incredibly smart with his decision making.  Size and athleticism aside, they are two very different quarterbacks, with Wilson being easily the superior prospect.

And remember, that’s his downside.  His upside is a slightly shorter but smarter version of Michael Vick.  Pete Carroll compared him to Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton (who played at 6’0″).  I didn’t see it personally, but I’ve heard that Carroll lit up like a Christmas tree in the Seahawks war-room when the Seahawks got Wilson.  Clearly this was a player they really believed in and badly wanted.

This is meant to be a reaction post, so I’ll save the heavy analysis for later in the week.  But for now I’ll say that Wilson is a guy who intrigues the heck out of me, and I’ve believed for a while that he had outstanding potential if he went to a team like Seattle, Philadelphia, or Green Bay: a team that runs a mobile quarterback offense and was willing to modify their offenses to compensate for Wilson’s shortcomings.  Andy Reid has already done so for Michael Vick, who’s only an inch and a quarter taller than Wilson.  Pete Carroll is well known for modifying scheme to get more out of players.  In that sense, I don’t know if there was a better match in the league for a player like Russell Wilson than Pete Carroll’s Seahawks.

Lately it seems everything that comes to Seattle from the state of Wisconsin has worked out pretty well for us.  Dave Krieg.  Mike Holmgren.  Matt Hasselbeck.  John Schneider.  Now Russell Wilson.  (Hopefully John Moffitt can step things up too).  The Seahawks are now set for not one but two quarterback battles this August, one between a passable starter and the NFL’s best backup, and the other between two highly intriguing quarterbacks with upside.  I can’t wait to see how things shake out.

Written by Kip Earlywine

(Before you read any further, be sure to scroll down and check out my post explaining why Bruce Irvin wasn’t a reach at #15 if you haven’t already.)

Considering that we whiffed on the easiest part of the draft, I don’t know if there is much hope for projecting things going forward.  Oh well.  As they say, “nothing ventured nothing gained.”

Vinny Curry in round two? A commenter in my initial reaction thread made an interesting claim.  I have no idea if there is any substance to it.  In fact, I’d probably put the odds against any rumors having much substance right now.  But what he said was still interesting just the same.  He claimed that Vinny Curry was the other pass rusher that really interested Seattle.  I find that interesting because like Rob, I’ve long felt that Curry was one of the draft’s most overlooked pass rushers.  I’d go so far as to say that Vinny Curry is the closest thing you will find in this draft to a young Chris Clemons.  In terms of size and physique they are very similar, and both have similar quickness and pass rush repertoire.  Or to put it another way, Vinny Curry is the kind of complete pass rusher that Nick Perry wishes he could be.

Now, I don’t think Curry will last to #43.  Even if he gets close, the Bills are probably going to have some interest in him, and that might be as far as he gets.  But forget about pesky things like probabilities and for just a few minutes let’s talk about possibilities instead.

If (for argument’s sake) it’s true that Seattle holds Vinny Curry in high (1st round) regard, then obviously they’d find him to be a terrific value at #43.  And while the team already added Bruce Irvin in round one, Bruce Irvin isn’t just here to replace Chris Clemons, he’s here to compliment Chris Clemons.  There’s a problem though.  Chris Clemons is 30 years old and turns 31 in October.  He’s also a free agent to be after this next season.  If Clemons is indeed a goner after 2012, then Seattle could end up back to square one with the pass rush, and that’s even if Bruce Irvin pans out.

Seattle doesn’t have to add another pass rusher this year.  They can hope that one of Dexter Davis or Jameson Konz pans out as Seattle’s future second pass rusher.  But if a pass rusher they have graded in the first round is sitting there at #43, whether it’s Vinny Curry or Courtney Upshaw or Andre Branch, will they pass on that?  I wonder.  This front office has to be prepared to draft a quarterback early next year if their current experiment doesn’t pan out.  Having a big need at pass rusher for the second year in a row would be an unwanted distraction.

Any “out of left field” picks possible? Certainly.  This front office is fairly transparent in their methods, but their picks have remained very difficult to pin down beforehand.  I’ve been thinking for a while that Seattle’s second round pick is the “wildcard” in this year’s deck.  While I strongly believe that running back and linebacker will remain priorities in this draft, the #43 pick is likely going to have a few options available with first round talent at a variety of positions.  It’s a great place in this draft for the Seahawks to simply scoop up the best talent available.  With this being a deep draft for both running backs and linebackers, Seattle could probably get away with putting off those needs one more round, especially since they picked up that extra 4th rounder.  Don’t be completely shocked if they make another surprise pick at #43.  It also wouldn’t surprise me if they traded down again, as this is a very deep draft that will pump out quality players for many rounds to come.

Some of the players I’ll be keeping an eye on tomorrow:

WR:

Reuben Randle.  Seattle is deep at receiver, but they lack starting quality players.  Randle carries a 1st round grade for some.

Stephen Hill.  Was all the pre-draft hype just that?

Alshon Jeffery.  I know Jeffrey isn’t fast, but he does a lot of things very well.

Mohamed Sanu.  Yet another fringe first round option that could become a value pick.

TE:

Coby Fleener.  I think he’ll reunite with Andrew Luck in Indianapolis, but considering that Fleener’s stock appeared to be falling in the final weeks of the draft’s run-up, it wouldn’t completely shock me if he made it to our pick.  The Seahawks don’t really have a second tight end that’s proven right now, so Fleener has some appeal, even if his blocking skills have drawn a few harsh reviews.

Dwayne Allen.  The Seahawks are nothing if unconventional at evaluating players.  It wouldn’t shock me if Fleener wasn’t their top tight end.

Orson Charles.  same deal.

OL:

Jonathan Martin.  Martin isn’t an elite talent, but he’s a very good talent and I’m frankly blown away that he escaped the first round.  He’ll likely be the first pick of the second round (St. Louis), but as of now, he’s still a possibility.  Seattle is a longshot to add a lineman this early, but Martin deserved to go top ten in the minds of some, and Seattle’s situation on the line is far from settled.  Right now an awful lot of this team’s success is hinging on Breno Giacomini, a lot more than I’m comfortable with (and I like the guy).  Russell Okung is injury cursed until he proves otherwise.  And James Carpenter’s injury health is concerning as well (he’s not expected to fully recover until the 2013 season).

Mike Adams.  Another value at offensive tackle.

Cordy Glenn.  Yet another value at offensive tackle.  Where were options like these last year when it counted?

Peter Konz.  Seattle doesn’t need a center, but Konz is such a good talent that it might be worth finding a way for him on the roster alongside Max Unger in the interior.

Kelechi Osemele.  Another quality interior line option.

Amini Silatolu.  Raw but talented.  Just the kind of player the Seahawks like.

QB:

Brock Osweiler.  I’d rather not, personally.

Kirk Cousins.  Please no.

Russell Wilson.  After seeing Irvin go in the first, nothing would surprise me at this point.

RB:

Lamar Miller.  To me, Miller is the best non-Richardson back in the draft.

LaMichael James.  A great change of pace option with under-rated strength, interior rushing ability, and toughness.  May possibly have every down potential.

Chris Polk.  Don’t be shocked if he goes round two.  A team like the Packer’s could have some interest.

Robert Turbin.  Could be worth keeping an eye on in round three.

Bernard Pierce.  same deal.

DT:

Brandon Thompson.  One of the best pass rushing defensive tackles in the draft.

Devon Still.  A fringe first round prospect, he could fall even further in a crowded field of DTs.

Jerel Worthy.  Worthy is a hot and cold player, but when he’s on, he’s dominant.

Kendall Reyes.  Another good option at DT.

DE/Pass Rusher:

Courtney Upshaw.  I’d love to get Upshaw at #43.  What a fun defense that would be, with Irvin, Clemons, and Upshaw shuffling all over the front seven.

Vinny Curry.  Chris Clemons 2.0.

Andre Branch.  I’m not as impressed by Branch as most, but he’s got long arms and knows how to use them.

LB:

Ronnell Lewis.  Lewis feels like a long shot, but he’s one of my favorite SAM linebacker options in the draft.

Zach Brown.  I don’t know what to believe right now, but whether or not our source was right about Brown, you have to admit that Brown does fit the profile of a Pete Carroll pick.

Mychal Kendricks.  Maybe I’m crazy, but it feels like everyone is sleeping on Kendricks’ stock suddenly.  Could he be a possibility in round three?

Bobby Wagner.  I find him to be “meh”, but even I’ll admit that Wagner seems like exactly the kind of linebacker Pete wants manning the middle of his defense.

Sean Spence.  A playmaker who makes mistakes.

Lavonte David.  I doubt David makes it to us.  But man, if he does and the Seahawks aren’t all over it, it better be for a damn good reason.

CB:

Janoris Jenkins.  Seattle doesn’t really need a corner that badly, and Jenkins has serious character concerns, but he’s also seriously talented.  To me he’s a top 10 pick in terms of talent.

S:

George Iloka.  Iloka’s a stud.  I doubt Seattle would draft him in rounds two or three, but I’ll still be watching him hoping that he’ll still be around tomorrow.

Written by Kip Earlywine

This was probably the most surprise-filled first round I’ve seen in a while.  Here are a few random thoughts from day one:

“Buyer’s market, indeed.” The funny thing about the term “buyers market” is that it actually means the opposite in a sense.  It refers to a situation where there are more sellers than buyers, and therefore the laws of supply and demand signify lower prices and less overall activity.  A recession can be an example of a buyer’s market.  In most cases, it isn’t easy to sell in a buyer’s market.

It was reported that every team picking between three and sixteen was contacting teams about moving down the day before the draft.  This made a lot of sense as the talent falls off very gradually after the top 6 “elite” talents are off the board.  Trading down has a lot of appeal if you can get a player nearly as good at the lower pick.

Despite the flood of sellers (who presumably wouldn’t be interested in buying), we saw a huge flurry of team’s trading up today.  More surprising still was how many trades took place in the top ten.  Top ten trades are historically uncommon, you might have one or two a year normally.  If you count the RG3 trade from earlier, there was a total of four trades in the top ten, with the Rams trading back twice.  The Seahawks of course had their trade at #12.  There would be four more trades in the rest of the first round, including two by the Patriots, who are notorious for trading down, not up.  All in all, there were 9 first round trades- more than one trade for every four picks.

Maybe the best thing to come out of the NFL labor dispute last year was the sanity that was restored to the rookie pay scale.  Doing so not only eliminated “the loser’s tax”, but it’s clearly encouraging teams to trade up on draft day, which makes the draft more unpredictable, more fun, and helps it move along at a quicker pace.

“Who?!” I’m not sure if I’ve seen a draft with as many surprise first rounders as this one.  Bruce Irvin is one of the biggest draft surprises ever, even moreso than Tyson Alualu from a couple years ago.  Then you had Brandon Weeden, who I’m sure made history as the oldest quarterback ever selected in the first round.  Chandler Jones technically wasn’t a surprise first rounder, but he wasn’t widely mocked in the first round until days before the draft.  AJ Jenkins became a surprise 1st rounder despite the fact that there were three other receivers with first round grades that hadn’t been taken yet.  Jenkins was ranked 99.84 on the consensus big board, meaning that on average (among Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, etc) he was a projected 4th round pick.

As it turns out, Bruce Irvin was not a reach. Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk is reporting that seven teams had Bruce Irvin ranked among their top 15 players.  That figure probably comes pretty close to the number of teams that were considering pass rush help in the first round, so it sounds like Seattle was hardly alone in thinking that Irvin was an elite pass rushing talent.  As I expressed in my draft reaction earlier tonight, my problem with the Irvin pick wasn’t the pick itself but the opportunity cost.  Why not trade down some more?  Well now it’s starting to look like that wasn’t the case after all.  The Jets and Chargers picked in the next three selections after Seattle, and both coveted pass rushers.  If even one of them rated Irvin highly, then Seattle would have been out of luck.  There was also a report by Michael Lombardi that Irvin had been contacted by a team in the bottom third of the first round and told he’d be the pick if available (it’s speculated that team was the 49ers).

In retrospect, it appears Seattle played their hand perfectly.  There wasn’t a single pass rusher taken in the first 11 picks, meaning Seattle had their choice of any pass rusher in the draft, and they still chose Irvin.  But instead of taking him at #12, they moved down just a few spots and added two extra picks, upping their total from 6 to 8.  As I said in my previous post, when taking value out of the equation, the Seahawks added one of two players I liked the most (draft stock aside) in the whole draft.  They added two draft picks doing it, and now it appears the one drawback (reaching) isn’t as true as I initially thought it was.  The Seahawks will probably get their share of “F” grades for what they did, but in retrospect those two moves could end up looking amazing in a few years time.

I guess this whole “reaching for Bruce Irvin” storyline highlights something really important.  Listen, we draftniks like to think we matter, but we really don’t.  NFL front offices don’t adjust their boards based on what Mel Kiper thinks, or what Todd McShay thinks, or what Mike Mayock thinks, and certainly not by what Rob or I think.  Us draftniks have limited time, limited resources, limited experience and knowledge, and while we work hard to project the draft with decent enough success, the fact is that our evaluations just aren’t going to be as high quality as the evaluations by most NFL front offices.  Those guys are professionals.  People like us are just entertaining wannabe’s.

And so when I give my own rankings, or when Mel Kiper and Todd McShay talk about their big boards, all we are really doing is guessing how NFL teams rate players.  That’s all it is and nothing more.  When a guy like Bruce Irvin or AJ Jenkins goes first round, who are we to criticize?  Seriously.  Unless you know how every team rates every player, you’ll be forced to judge based on empty guesstimates, which in the case of Bruce Irvin proved our harsh initial judgments to be completely wrong.

And I’ll say this too- our front office also has a much better feel for the market than we do.  They’ve had a lot of success with letting their own free agents test free agency because they knew the market wasn’t very strong for them.  They’ve used this tactic time and again to motivate players to sign back with Seattle on cheap, short-term contracts.  They also knew before the 2011 draft that Ryan Mallett was in for a big fall and would reach at least the late second round (he was snatched up in the mid third).  NFL teams knew that.  Reporters and draftniks didn’t.  They also knew that James Carpenter was rated highly by multiple teams who picked right behind them (Steelers, Bears, and Packers).  Odds are pretty good that Seattle also had ways of knowing about a few of the other seven teams that ranked Irvin in their top 15, and the Seahawks wisely decided to quit while they were ahead at #15 and take Irvin there.  All that being considered, its awfully hard to complain about how the Seahawks came out today.

Who was day one’s biggest winner? A case could be made for the Colts and the Redskins if their shiny new quarterbacks end up having Hall of Fame careers, but the team draft I wanted to switch places with the most was actually the draft by St. Louis.  I’m sure that somewhere Adam Carolla is getting plastered right now for more than the usual reasons (he’s the only celebrity Rams fan I could think of off the top of my head).  The Rams moved from the 2nd pick to just the 14th pick and added two future firsts and two more present year second rounders for doing so.  Their punishment?  Having to select Michael Brockers, who is arguably the best defensive tackle in the draft.  The Rams now have three picks in the first half of round two, and this is a very good year to be picking in the early second round.  I would much rather have those three early 2nd rounders than the #12 pick.  The NFC West is already becoming a tough division and its future is looking tougher by the minute.

Who was day one’s biggest loser? Most people will probably say the Seahawks, but I have a feeling those remarks will just look entertaining in a couple years time.  I’m going to go outside the box a bit and say that Cleveland was the biggest loser, in the sense that they did the least good with what they were given.

First, they were losers because they lost out to the Redskins for RG3.  That’s strike one.

Next, they sacrificed a very valuable 3rd round pick for a pointless trade up to secure Trent Richardson.  Even if another team jumped up for Richardson at #3, which probably wouldn’t have happened, Cleveland was assured some pretty phenomenal offensive talents in Matt Kalil or Justin Blackmon either way.  A 3rd round pick this year is going to be the rough equivalent of a 2nd round pick last year in terms of talent level, so watching them waste a 3rd rounder for no good reason was the draft equivalent of a rich guy caricature  lighting his Cuban cigar with a hundred dollar bill.  That’s strike two.

Finally, I gave Cleveland my vote for “best day one of the draft” last year when they swung the ridiculous Julio Jones deal, the prize of which was a 2012 first round pick.  Seeing them waste that pick on a quarterback who will be 29 years old midway through his rookie season is not only strike three against them in the 2012 draft, but it makes me want to consider rescinding my imaginary draft trophy I gave them last year too.

Coming up:  players to watch on day two.  Stay tuned.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Man, I don’t even know where to begin.

I love this pick.  I love, love, love this pick, in the sense that, had we added him at #75, I’d have been all over it.  If it had happened #43, I would have been completely supportive.  But at #15?  Man, I’m not even sure how I should feel.  It’s complicated.

I actually watched this draft at Big Al’s in Vancouver.  I showed up 90 minutes early to grab the best seat.  Portland’s top sports station, 1080 the fan, was doing a live draft party there.  When I first got there, the place was almost totally empty, but Isaac and Big Suke were right there doing their broadcast about 75 feet away from me.  I almost walked up to them just so I could impress them by calling Courtney Upshaw at #12 an hour before the draft had even started, but something held me back.  I was SURE that Upshaw was going to the pick, I would have bet everything I owned on it.  But I decided not to because I didn’t want them to think I was some pompous ass.  Obviously, I made the right call by staying put, and not for the reason I had anticipated.

As the draft got closer, the place quickly became packed, and a lot of different teams were represented.  There was still a pretty strong number of Seahawks fans though.  When the 15th pick signaled “the pick is in” and Goodell approached the podium, there was a small uproar of clapping, cheering and excitement.  Then the name “Bruce Irvin” was read.  The room went completely quiet.  I’ll never forget that moment.

As far as Irvin goes, man, this pick makes me feel so confused emotionally.  I’d use this analogy for those that follow the Mariners at USSMariner.  A few years back, Dave Cameron wrote his popular offseason plan just before that offseason began.  Part of that plan highlighted Miguel Batista as a good free agent pitching signing.  Then the offseason began, and the Mariners went out and signed Miguel Batista… for about triple the amount of money Cameron thought Batista was going to get.  Suddenly Cameron had no idea how to react, because the Mariners had targeted a player he liked, but paid way too much in doing so.

That’s pretty much exactly how I feel about Bruce Irvin at #15.  Not because Irvin can’t justify such lofty draft position, but because it at least feels like they could have had him so much later.  I didn’t see a single mock that had Irvin anywhere in the first round, and I only saw a few that had him going in the 2nd.  Most people had Irvin graded in the rounds three to four region.

That said, if you take draft stock out of the equation, there were just two players in the draft that I badly wanted to be Seahawks. Those two players?  Russell Wilson and Bruce Irvin.  I’ve been saying for a while, not here but on message boards, that I badly wanted to see the Seahawks pull some strings and find a way to get Irvin and or Wilson in the mid rounds somehow.  So while I’m not crazy about the price tag, I couldn’t be happier that we got the player we did.  I’m going to laugh if Seattle goes and takes Russell Wilson in the 2nd round, that is if my head doesn’t explode first.

I talked before about how I had a bit of a “curse” going with highlighting Seahawks options and how the front office always seemed to avoid those players.  In 2010, I covered fifty or sixty likely options, and only one was drafted by Seattle.  Last year I covered a dozen or so “Tom Cable” prospects- none of them were named James Carpenter or John Moffitt.  This year I covered a ton of running backs, quarterbacks, and linebackers.  There were only three other players from any other position that I covered in my scouting reports series.  Those three players were Michael Egnew, Jonathan Massaqoui, and, would you believe it, Bruce Irvin.  What a weird way for the curse to reverse itself.

Anyway, if you missed it, you can read my scouting report on Irvin from the link in the previous paragraph.  One person compared him to Rufus Porter, a Seahawk from the late 80s and early 90s that for a brief time was an undersized sack machine for us.  To me, Irvin is RG3 the pass rusher.  He’s got 10-15 sack a year potential, but he’s got more red flags than any pass rusher in the draft.  He’s boom or bust to the extreme.  Maybe I’ll have more to say about him later, but if nothing else, I’ll end this for now by saying that Irvin is going to be a very exciting player to watch the next few years.

I actually have a lot more thoughts on this.  I might have a larger post about day 1 of the draft later tonight.

Before I get to my mock draft, I want to share a few random thoughts about the last few months here at the blog, and also a few special predictions for the weekend’s draft.

#1: Rob and I have spent a lot of time highlighting Courtney Upshaw on this blog.  Rob has consistently held a very high opinion of him and thinks he’s an elite talent.  I know that a lot of readers have accused us of having a man-crush on him.  That might be true for Rob, but I’ve always maintained that I view Upshaw as a solid prospect with the potential to become great.  As I said in my writeup the other day, if coaches can put him in better situations for bull rushing, he could be productive enough to justify the #12 pick.  Otherwise, I think Upshaw is going to be an Adrian Clayborn (20th overall pick) or Robert Ayers (18th overall pick) level contributor, and therefore a small reach at #12.

So to be perfectly clear, I have no issues with taking Upshaw at #12, I’d even find it potentially exciting, but it’s not like he tops my draft board at the 12th pick either.  If the pick was mine to make, I’d probably trade down, or draft one of Coples, Kuechly, DeCastro, Martin, or even Stephon Gilmore, who I’m starting to think could be a smaller Richard Sherman.  There is a lot of parity at the #12 pick, and a lot of good picks that could be made.  Rob may feel a certain way, but I’m definitely not on the “Upshaw or bust” bandwagon.  So please stop saying so.  It’s silly.  We haven’t featured Upshaw as much as we have because we want to promote him, but because we have good reasons to think he’s going to be the pick and we wanted Seahawks fans to be prepared for it.  It’s just that simple.

So why do we think Upshaw is likely?  Because our source that has provided nothing but good and trustworthy information over the last three drafts gave us a list of names to watch for and Upshaw headlined it.  We’ve also heard from one other person close to the situation that Pete really likes Upshaw.  Then there’s that pickup basketball game rumor from a few months ago too.  And while Pete and John have jovially talked about Melvin Ingram, Quinton Coples, Ryan Tannehill and other top 15 pick options, they’ve been as quiet as the grave concerning Upshaw.  I successfully predicted that Seattle would draft Aaron Curry (to my great displeasure) two days before the 2009 draft when I realized that Curry was the one player Tim Ruskell hadn’t visited or talked about at all.  If a GM is going out of his way to ignore a guy who is an obvious possibility, that’s often a telling sign.

#2: John Schneider is an incredibly open GM with draft information, almost to the point of recklessness, but I think it’s just a bi-product of his successful track record and that he feels he can “win” even when the board doesn’t fall perfectly.  Yesterday, Schneider openly admitted to there being “little cut-offs and ledges” in the draft, and named the 12th or 13th pick as one of those ledges.  He also said that there are two players that stood out as being “very attractive” as options.  Couple this information with the reports that every team between picks 3 and 16 is contacting other teams about moving down, and you have a clear buyer’s market on the trade front.  Long story short, don’t expect Seattle to trade down from the #12 pick unless both those unnamed players are gone.   If they are who we think they are, then at least one of them will likely reach the pick.  So for those of you hoping for a trade down (I’m among you), I wouldn’t get your hopes up.

#3: Pete Carroll released his annual draft hints on twitter.  This year’s theme: clips from comedy films.  Even with the insider information I’ve heard, I honestly have no clue if any of these hints mean a thing.  That said, the first of those clips was a scene from the movie Step Brothers.  As someone else already pointed out, Courtney Upshaw was raised by his Aunt and was, in a sense, a step-brother to the rest of the family.  All of the clips seemed to share the theme of damage, pain, or destruction.  That makes me lean towards Upshaw (and Richardson) even more, as they are the two most violent players in the draft.

#4: Okay, okay, now that I’ve given my reasons why I think Upshaw is very likely to be the pick, I need to be clear that Rob and I have not been explicitly told he’s the guy in absolute terms, and we have to acknowledge the chances that Seattle could go in another direction.  I suspect that Schneider’s aforementioned “very attractive” options are Upshaw and Richardson.   However, we were also told that Melvin Ingram and Quinton Coples were in play as well.  We also heard that they really like Zach Brown.  If it’s not one of those five players, it will be the first time our best source has been inaccurate.

Now that that’s out of the way, here’s a few quick hit predictions for this weekend’s draft:

1. Seattle probably won’t trade down in the first round (see above).
2. Seattle might trade up early in round two for Zach Brown, but otherwise I don’t expect the team to trade up for the most part.
3. This is a deep draft, but the Seahawks only have six picks to work with.  John Schneider is going to covet extra picks even more than usual.  If there isn’t an obvious bargain available in rounds two, three, and four, look for Seattle to move down.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Seahawks had multiple trade downs in this draft, as picks in rounds three, four, and five are going to hold a lot of value this year.  Seattle has gotten phenomenal returns from rounds four and five the last two years, but they currently only have one pick in that range this year.
4. I expect Seattle to draft a pass rusher, a linebacker (or two), and a running back in the first four rounds.
5. The #43 pick could be a wildcard pick.  I expect Seattle to draft a linebacker or running back there, but if a legit first round talent like Kendall Wright or Coby Fleener is sitting there, it might be enough to push Seattle’s priorities down a round.  Maybe.
6. Seattle spent a lot its team invites on late round defensive backs, and in the Alabama pickup game rumor Carroll referred to “not drafting a corner that early”, which hints at the team drafting one later on.  Personally, I’m rooting for Ron Brooks.  George Iloka is a baller too.
7. No inside info on these last few predictions, but I suspect Seattle might add an offensive lineman late and/or possibly a tight end.  Both are small areas of need for Seattle but both are areas in which the team can afford to wait and develop the position with late round picks.
8. It wouldn’t shock me if Seattle added a second pass rusher after the first.  The middle rounds are relatively strong for pass rushers this year (Massaquoi, Irvin, etc.) and Seattle showed last year that they are willing to double down to address an area of need.
9. As usual, expect Seattle to draft a lot of player’s we didn’t cover, and a lot of players that almost no one has heard of.  It’s a little deflating whenever picks happen that make you say “who?!”, but that’s just because this front office is much more awesome at digging up talent than we are.  I’ll have to remind myself not to flip out when two thirds of their draft haul will be guys I’ve never heard of.  Pete and John have earned the benefit of the doubt.

With that out of the way, here’s my 2012 Draftsmas morning mock:

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The best quarterback prospect in some time.

	#2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) Griffin is very risky, but his upside is intense.  He’s also fun and easy to root for.

	#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) Kalil is one of the best tackles to come out in a while, and the Vikings have a huge need at that position.

	#4 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) The Browns might consider Blackmon, but Richardson wins hands down in terms of pure talent.

	#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) This pick feels like it’s been a lock forever.

	#6 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) This a dream scenario for the Rams.  It will almost feel like they got those extra two first rounders and the extra high second rounder for free.

	#7 Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse) Two years ago the Jaguars made a stunning reach for Tyson Alualu in the top 10 picks.  The Jaguars are looking for pass rush help, and could be swayed by another last minute fast riser.

	#8 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) The Dolphins must be sick of hearing quarterbacks and coaches telling them “no.”  On the bright side, Ryan Tannehill won’t have a say if Miami drafts him.

	#9 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) Cox’s stock is rising fast, and he also fits perfectly with Carolina’s needs on the defensive line.  This is quickly becoming an obvious pick.

	#10 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) Buddy Nix went balls out in free agency for pass rushers because he preferred to address offensive tackle in round one.  He could go with a few options here, but Martin is the best pick for a team that wants to ensure they are drafting a future tackle.

	#11 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) The Chiefs need a run stopper, but with Poe’s stock taking a tumble, I think they’ll address offensive line instead.  Reiff has the flexibility to play guard and tackle, which will have added appeal to the Chiefs.

	#12 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) Unless today is your first trip to this blog, you’re probably already sick of hearing about this guy.  That said, I’d put the odds of him being the pick very high, unless a team leapfrogs the Seahawks for him.

	#13 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) Arizona desperately needs offensive line help, but they need a tackle more than a guard, and this is too early to take a guard anyway.  Adams’ stock has taken a hit for off the field reasons, but he’s the best tackle left at this point.

	#14 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) Jerry Jones isn’t a subtle man, and he’s shown a lot of interest in Barron.  It wouldn’t surprise me if Jones traded up a few spots just to be sure he gets Barron.

	#15 Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College) DeMeco Ryans probably won’t be enough to keep the Eagles away from Kuechly.

	#16 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) The Jets need a pass rusher and will be thrilled if Ingram lasts this long.

	#17 Stephon Gilmore (CB, South Carolina) I suspect the Bengals will spend one of their firsts on a corner.  Gilmore deserves the hype and is the best corner available in my opinion.

	#18 Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis) The Chargers need a nose tackle or a pass rusher.  Poe feels like less of a reach here than Vinny Curry.

#19 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) The Bears were known to add not one but two big time receivers this offseason.  They got the ball rolling with Brandon Marshall, and here they add Floyd to solidify a potentially scary passing attack in 2012.

	#20 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) Corner is a need for the Titans, and Kirkpatrick will be considered a steal at this point by some.

	#21 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) The Bengals need a guard and won’t think twice if DeCastro falls this far.

	#22 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) The Browns will take a receiver here, the question is who.  There are plenty of options, but Wright gets my vote.

	#23 Janoris Jenkins (OT, Stanford) The Lions need help at corner, and Jenkins is supremely talented.  His off the field concerns will keep him out of round one, but don’t be surprised if the Lions move back to take Jenkins a bit later.

	#24 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) Hightower is the perfect example of a Pittsburgh Steeler type player.  It’s only fitting he would be drafted by them.

	#25 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) Denver might go for a receiver here, but a deep class of receivers and Brockers high value will tilt this pick in his favor.

	#26 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) If Coples doesn’t go top 12, I think he’s in for a bit of a slide.  The Texans are a logical destination, as Coples has upside on par with a certain defensive end the Texans just lost in free agency.

	#27 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) Mercilus could make sense for the Patriots as a situational pass rusher.

#28 Doug Martin (RB, Boise State) Green Bay runs an offense not unlike Seattle’s, and as great as Rodgers is, their’s is still a relatively run heavy offense, but without a productive back to make things click.  Martin could help take Green Bay’s offense to a new level.

	#29 Peter Konz (OG/C, Wisconsin) Baltimore needs help in the interior of the line, and Konz is a fantastic value this late.

	#30 Rueben Randle (WR, LSU) The 49ers will probably grab a receiver here.  If not Randle, then Stephen Hill.

	#31 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) The Patriots need a pass rushing defensive tackle and Still is the best tackle available at this point.

	#32 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia) The Giants are in need of offensive tackle help once again, and Cordy Glenn is probably the best option here.

Round two

#33 St. Louis – Jerel Worthy (DT, Michigan State)
#34 Indianapolis – Coby Fleener (TE, Stanford)
#35 Minnesota – Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech)
#36 Tampa Bay – Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)
#37 Cleveland – Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina)
#38 Jacksonville – Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
#39 St. Louis – Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)
#40 Carolina – Josh Robinson (CB, UCF)
#41 Buffalo – Andre Branch (DE, Clemson)
#42 Miami – Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall)
#43 Seattle – Lavonte David (LB, Nebraska)
#44 Kansas City – Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State)
#45 Dallas – Nick Perry (DE, USC)
#46 Philadelphia – Jayron Hosley (CB, Virginia Tech)
#47 New York Jets – Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame)
#48 New England – Shea McClellin (LB, Boise State)
#49 San Diego – Dwayne Allen (TE, Clemson)
#50 Chicago – Brandon Thompson (DT, Clemson)
#51 Philadelphia – Brandon Taylor (S, LSU)
#52 Tennessee – Kendall Reyes (DT, Connecticut)
#53 Cincinnati – David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech)
#54 Detroit – Kevin Zeitler (OG, Wisconsin)
#55 Atlanta – Orson Charles (TE, Georgia)
#56 Pittsburgh – Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State)
#57 Denver – Robert Turbin (RB, Utah State)
#58 Houston – Marvin Jones (WR, Cal)
#59 New Orleans – VOID
#60 Green Bay – Bruce Irvin, (DE, West Virginia)
#61 Baltimore – Bobby Wagner, (LB, Utah State)

#62 San Francisco – Amini Silatolu (OG, Midwestern State)
#63 New England – Juron Criner (WR, Arizona)
#64 New York Giants– LaMichael James (RB, Oregon)

My guesses for Seattle’s picks in rounds 3-7 (assuming no trades):

#75 Seattle – Chris Polk, (RB, Washington)

#106 Seattle –James Michael-Johnson, (LB, Nevada)

#181 Seattle – Chandler Harnish, (QB, Northern Illinois)

#225 Seattle –Ron Brooks, (CB, LSU)

Written by Kip Earlywine

Here are some factors that led me to this rankings:

#1:  My own rankings are based on the assumption that any of the three linebacker spots can be upgraded, and that KJ Wright has enough flexibility to play middle or even weak side.

#2:  I liked our linebacker group last year, so if Pete Carroll is so determined to overhaul it, it must be because something was clearly lacking, whether it was speed, coverage, or the ability to cover ground in run support.  I kept the team’s “speed” preference in mind when making these personal rankings.

With that in mind…

My top ten 4-3 linebackers in the 2012 draft:

#1:  Luke Kuechly (deserves to be drafted: top 15 pick)

I’ll say with 99% certainty that the Seahawks won’t be drafting Kuelchy at #12, but I honestly wouldn’t mind if they did.  Kuelchy is fast enough to become an above average coverage linebacker, and his instincts tracking the ball in run support are off the charts.

#2:  Dont’a Hightower (deserves to be drafted: round 1)

Hightower isn’t just a very good inside linebacker, he’s also got the size and power to be an excellent SAM, and enough quickness to be a solid WILL.  He can play both inside and outside in a 3-4 too.  He even lined up as a 4-3 defensive end on 3rd downs, and showed a lot of promise as an edge rusher.  Hightower can pretty much do it all, and he does it very well.  Oh, and did I mention he does all this at 265 pounds?  If Hightower lands on a team like Baltimore or Pittsburgh, its not hard for me to envision him as a perennial pro-bowler.

#3:  Lavonte David (deserves to be drafted: late round 1)

Undersized but stellar, David put up the best statistics of any linebacker in this draft class over the last two years.  From a 4-3 perspective, David is probably limited to playing the WILL spot unless he can add a ton of weight, but he has a chance to be perhaps the best WILL linebacker in the NFL on day one.  David is excellent in coverage, instinctive, smart against the run, and deadly as a pass rusher.  If Seattle passed on him at #43, it better be for someone amazing.

#4:  Ronnell Lewis (deserves to be drafted: early round 2)

Lewis was a defensive end in college, but his excellent special teams play, speed, good instincts and hard hitting ability all point to him as a potentially dominant SAM linebacker in a 4-3 (or a passable outside linebacker in a 3-4).  If Lewis is the best player available, he’s worth considering as he’d likely be an upgrade over Wright at SAM.

#5:  Shea McClellin (deserves to be drafted: early round 2)

McClellin is one of the draft’s most diverse players.  A high school linebacker who converted to defensive end, McClellin posted respectable pass rush statistics as a Bronco, but the Senior Bowl and Scouting Combine revealed that his true talent may be at linebacker.  Carroll likes players with scheme diversity, and McClellin could play either outside linebacker position, he could play strong side end on pass rush downs and could even be a successor for Clemons at the LEO.  Despite playing defensive end, McClellin’s forty time was among the best for outside linebackers, and its said he looked terrific in coverage drills.  McClellin will also draw strong consideration from teams looking for 3-4 outside linebackers.

#6:  Mychal Kendricks (deserves to be drafted: round 3)

I know that Rob and I have touted Kendricks as a second round option, and we even mocked him to Seattle in the SBN writers mock at #43, but when I put on the games, I see a guy who looks like a 3rd or 4th round pick.  Kendricks’ amazing combine will boost his stock significantly and probably makes him a near lock for round two, but I personally wouldn’t feel great about drafting him until the third.  The Seahawks may feel very differently though as they appear to be placing a very high premium on speed.

#7:  Bobby Wagner (deserves to be drafted: round 3)

Wagner has boring tape and doesn’t make a lot of splash plays from middle linebacker, but he’s one of the best coverage inside linebackers in the draft and he has the speed to cover tight ends and slot receivers with ease.  Wagner is a bit of a jack of all trades linebacker and would be a very solid pick in round three, though like Kendricks, he will probably be selected before then.

#8:  Demario Davis (deserves to be drafted: round 3)

Davis posted a very strong combine and has electrifying tape.  In terms of maximum potential, he would be much higher on this list.  Uncertainty about his coverage ability, small school competition, and tackling issues drop him down this far, but Davis is a monster talent and I’d be stoked if Seattle picked him any time after the second round.

#9:  James Michael-Johnson (deserves to be drafted: round 4)

You would think a guy with the last name “Michael-Johnson” would be ridiculously fast, but James is hardly “the world’s fastest man.”  Michael-Johnson’s field speed is just barely above average, but he compensates for that speed with outstanding coverage instincts and reaction ability.  There isn’t a obvious Derrick Brooks candidate in this draft class, but Michael-Johnson’s ability to work a zone and read a quarterback reminds me of Tampa’s Hall of Fame linebacker.  No other linebacker I scouted this year was used in coverage more than Michael-Johnson was, not even Zach Brown or Lavonte David.  Michael-Johnson isn’t the greatest run stopper, but his closing speed and coverage ability makes him a very attractive option for what Seattle wants to do on defense.

I excluded Michael-Johnson from my draft spotlight series for one simple reason:  I want him to be a Seahawk.  My previews have always been remarkably inaccurate.  Two years ago I covered fifty or sixty players, and only one was drafted by the Seahawks.  One year ago, I covered several options on the offensive line, but James Carpenter and John Moffitt were not among them.  I fully expect to strike out once again in 2012.  So there you have it.  James Michael-Johnson:  destined Seahawks draft pick.  (Oh, and to the draft-gods that might be reading this, I should also point out that I didn’t cover Dont’a Hightower or Luke Kuechly either.  Just throwing that out there…)

#10:  Tank Carder (deserves to be drafted: round 4)

Lots of non-BCS talent at linebacker this year, eh?  Half of this list is made up of linebackers from non-BCS conference schools, which is saying something as I discount success significantly based on level of competition.

Carder is the closest thing in the 2012 draft to a Lofa Tatupu middle linebacker.  Like Tatupu, Carder is hard hitting with a well rounded skill set.  He plays his ass off and shows good potential in zone coverage too.  Like Tatupu, he’s a leader on the field and stood out despite playing on a very good defense.

Just missed:  Sean Spence (4th round), Zach Brown (4th round)

The front office’s top ten 4-3 linebackers (my guesses):

(estimated draft grade in parenthesis)

For the purposes of this ranking, I’m assuming that Seattle is looking for linebackers that can cover first and foremost.  I think when Pete talks about wanting “speed” at linebacker, that’s what he actually means.  I’ve come to this conclusion based on the insider info that the team rates Zach Brown very highly, and if you’ve seen Zach Brown play at all, you know that his coverage ability is the only part of his game that he could brag about.  I also think that while the Seahawks believe in KJ Wright’s versatility at all three linebacker spots, I suspect the team would like to keep Wright at SAM if possible.  That means they would probably prefer options at MIKE and WILL over SAM, although SAM linebackers could still be considered if the value is just too good to pass up.  Finally, I think the front office values versatility, so linebackers that have a chance to play two or three linebacker spots would be more strongly considered.

#1:  Zach Brown (1st round grade):

Zach Brown is not a good football player, but the Seahawks love him and I can think of several sane reasons why they would.  While he isn’t the very fastest linebacker in the draft, he’s close, and not many linebackers can run a 4.50 forty time at 244 pounds.  Purely in terms of size and speed, Brown is capable of playing all three linebacker spots in a 4-3, which holds huge appeal to the Seahawks as they will want to move players around and show as many looks as possible.

In an extreme scenario, and by extreme I mean something approaching Mad Max / Water World territory, Seattle might even consider Brown in the first round.  I don’t think a good enough offer will arise to nudge Seattle out of the 12th pick, but if one does and Seattle moves down in the 1st round, keep an eye on Brown as a possible fallback option.

According to Sports Illustrated’s Tony Pauline, Zach Brown didn’t make the top 33 list of draftable players (taken from a random sampling of NFL draft boards).  It’s sounding more and more that Brown will slide into the second round.  If that happens it should be very interesting to see how John Schneider handles the pressure of having such a highly rated player approach their 2nd round pick.  Will Seattle hold firm and hope Brown makes it?  Or will they cave and spend a valuable pick to move up?

#2:  Lavonte David (2nd round grade):

I wish I knew how Seattle rated David.  I’m assuming they’d like him a lot, as he’s field fast with good coverage skills and brings a lot to the pass rush as well.  On the downside, David isn’t very scheme versatile for a 4-3 and will likely be locked into a WILL linebacker role for Seattle’s defense.  Still, David is pretty much the definition of an “impact” player and could immediately take the Seahawks’ defense to the next level.  Pete Carroll has connections to Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini too (thank you Field Gulls).

#3:  Bobby Wagner (2nd round grade):

Wagner isn’t flashy, but he doesn’t have a lot of glaring flaws and is one of the best coverage linebackers in the draft.  He also ran a 4.46 forty.  I’m lukewarm on him, but his appeal is pretty obvious.

#4:  James Michael-Johnson (2nd round grade):

This might seem very high for Michael-Johnson, but the few times Rob and I have been blessed to see the Seahawks draft boards they always struck us for being unusual and having plenty of surprises in them.  I think Michael-Johnson could be one of those surprises.  Michael-Johnson’s overall profile is similar to Bobby Wagner except that Wagner excels in man coverage whereas Michael-Johnson was more of a zone coverage expert.

#5:  Mychal Kendricks (2nd round grade):

Kendricks is under-sized but a special athlete.  I really like Kendricks’ upside at the WILL because of his speed in coverage and his ability to accelerate when blitzing.  Kendricks can also play MIKE if needed.  Depending on how the draft board falls, Kendricks could be a strong consideration at #43 due to his incredible speed, athleticism, upside, and scheme diversity.  He’s also a Pac-12 player, which could cause Pete Carroll to favor Kendricks even more.

#6:  Demario Davis (2nd round grade):

Davis is a very similar athlete and player to Kendricks.  I like Davis’ tape more, but I have him a little lower on both lists because his performances came against weaker competition.

#7:  Sean Spence (3rd round grade):

Spence is a playmaking linebacker who utilizes great hand usage to help overcome his lack of height and size.  Solid in coverage and adept at making plays behind the line, I only have Spence this low because he possesses only average speed and makes too many mistakes.  Seattle shipped off Aaron Curry in part because he was mistake prone, so that makes me think that Spence’s mistake problems could be a significant turnoff for this front office.  That said, I wouldn’t rule out Spence as an option in rounds two, three, or four.

#8:  Shea McClellin (3rd round grade):

McCellin might rank much higher than this, but I think Seattle would put him this low mainly because his coverage ability is an unproven commodity.  I wouldn’t put it past McClellin to be a 1st round pick either, as many 3-4 teams will be seriously interested in his skill set.

#9:  Korey Toomer (mid-to-late round grade):

For these last two options, I’ll list a couple of long shot options that could make sense in the mid to late rounds, should Seattle opt to add a linebacker in that range.  Keep in mind that there are several small school linebackers with excellent forty times, guys that nobody is taking the time to talk about.  I’m only going to list two, but there are probably a dozen small school linebackers with speed that could be in play.

Korey Toomer’s scouting report reads a lot like Zach Brown’s.  He’s a guy that does a lot of things well and has fluidity on par with defensive backs, but lacks the aggressiveness and timing that separates great linebackers from failed ones.  Toomer is 6’2″, 234 pounds, and ran a blistering 4.48 forty time.  The Seahawks were one of twelve teams to meet with Toomer and were just one of four teams to have him do a private workout.

#10:  Marcus Dowtin (mid-to-late round grade):

Dowtin is another linebacker who resembles a safety with his movement skills.  He’s 6’2″, 231 pounds, and ran a 4.56 forty time.  Like Toomer, Dowtin is a small school player.  John Schneider has not shied away from small school talents thus far.

No Kuelchy, Hightower or Lewis? I have these three off of Seattle’s list despite how highly I think of them as their coverage ability is considered less than a sure thing.  Additionally, Kuelchy and Hightower have no real chance to reach the #43 pick, and I don’t think Seattle would spend big to trade back up into the first round for either one.  Obviously, I would love to be wrong on all three counts, as you can see from where they sit in my own rankings.  I’d be pretty surprised if any of them end up Seahawks though.

Written by Kip Earlywine

This installment will cover the running backs.  Keep in mind that rankings will be much harder this time for a few reasons:

#1:  We haven’t heard any inside info about which running backs the Seahawks like other than Trent Richardson.

#2:  After Richardson, there is a ton of depth and parity in this running back class.

#3:  There isn’t a ton of running back consensus among draft minds.  How you rank them has a lot less to do with how good they are and is more about what type of attributes you favor in a runner.

My top ten running backs in the 2012 draft:

#1:  Trent Richardson (deserves to be drafted:  top 10 overall)

Richardson’s high power, high leg drive, deceptive speed, and gaudy statistics remind me a lot of Corey Dillon many years ago.  Dillon had a fringe hall of fame NFL career, and I think Richardson might end up being even better than Dillon was.  Richardson is widely considered the best running back to come out since Adrian Peterson.

#2:  Lamar Miller (deserves to be drafted: late round 1)

There might not be a running back in the entire draft that makes it look easier than Miller does.  He’s also one of the draft’s fastest and most elusive running backs.  The Clinton Portis comparisons are legit, in my opinion.

#3:  Chris Polk (deserves to be drafted:  late round 1)

Polk has improved each of the last three seasons and nearly set a school record for rushing despite playing behind a weak offensive line.  Polk is an interesting combination of being hard to tackle and also being an excellent receiver.  His speed is under-rated too.  Other than pass blocking, Polk is a classic jack of all trades running back that does everything pretty well.  Polk could potentially slip into the third or fourth round, making him a huge bargain for some lucky team.

#4:  Doug Martin (deserves to be drafted:  late round 1)

Martin has the quickest feet of any running back in the draft.  If you want a back that can break ankles, Martin is your guy.  I have him a tiny bit lower than most people do because of the level of competition he faced while playing for an elite team, and also because his tendency to dance behind the line too much could be a small issue for zone blocking schemes.

#5:  LaMichael James (deserves to be drafted:  round 2)

James may not be very big, but he’s much stronger than his size would lead you to believe.  He’s also a very good inside rusher, a bit like Justin Forsett with wheels.  James averaged over 20 carries a game at Oregon and stayed healthy (an odd elbow injury aside).  He’d make for a good 3rd down back, but I see logical reasons as to why he could expand his role beyond that.  My only problem with James was that almost all of his runs were draw plays.  How would he function in a normal offense?  That uncertainty drops James a bit for me, but otherwise I think he’s a special talent that does a lot of things well and is going to be one of the league’s fastest running backs on day one.

#6:  David Wilson (deserves to be drafted:  round 3)

Wilson is very young, has fast straight line speed, and had terrific production in his first season.  He doesn’t really have much in the way of elusiveness, vision, or instincts though.  He’s got too much length for his own good which makes him a stiff and predictable runner.  He almost seems like a track star who just recently converted to running back.  I wouldn’t put it past Wilson to have a huge NFL career, but I didn’t like what I saw.  I wouldn’t take him until many other options had already left the board.

#7:  Robert Turbin (deserves to be drafted:  round 3)

Robert Turbin is a Marshawn Lynch clone with a shade less athleticism.  Turbin is a strong interior rusher that makes mostly good decisions.  He prides himself on his pass blocking and could easily become a productive three down running back in the NFL.

#8:  Bernard Pierce (deserves to be drafted:  round 4)

A powerful, downhill runner with decent speed, Pierce is a bit like a mix of Knile Davis and David Wilson.  Pierce has Wilson’s long legs, stiff movement, and good north/south speed, while resembling Davis in terms of power and consistency.  Pierce is an excellent mid round option for a team that can’t address running back early.

#9:  Tauren Poole (deserves to be drafted:  round 4)

Poole has many similarities to Chris Polk.  Both are well rounded players with deceptively decent speed who played behind poor offensive lines.  Poole has quick feet and good change of direction skills.  Poole is one of the draft’s most under-rated running backs.  He’d probably be drafted in round two if he didn’t play for such a miserable team.

#10:  Isaiah Pead (deserves to be drafted:  round 5)

As Matt Waldman colorfully illustrated, Pead is a talented back, but “he takes too many trips to the corner store.”  Pead is widely thought to be just a third down back in the NFL.

The front office’s top 10 running backs (my guesses):

(estimated draft grade in parenthesis)

I think Seattle is looking for three things:  they are looking for a change of pace back, they are looking for a guy who can fill in for Lynch if he gets hurt as a three down back, and they are looking for Lynch’s eventual successor in 3-5 years time.  Marshawn Lynch just turned 26 years old two days ago.  He’ll be 29 years old in the final year of his new contract.  I don’t have a crystal ball, but it seems logical to think that Lynch has a very good chance of seeing the end of that contract here in Seattle. That means whoever Seattle drafts this year is going to be very much a long term player, with seasons from 2016 and beyond kept in mind.

Trent Richardson, David Wilson and Lamar Miller are all very young players, while Doug Martin is relatively old.   If Seattle drafted Doug Martin, and Lynch remained on the team through his contract, Martin wouldn’t become the starting back until his age 28 season (2016).  Because of that, I think age is going to be a factor in the front office’s ranking process.

#1:  Trent Richardson (1st round grade)

Richardson isn’t just one of the best running backs to come out in the last decade, but he’s a perfect fit for the Seahawks’ identity. He’s also the youngest running back in the draft.  If Richardson reaches the 12th pick, the Seahawks would strongly consider selecting him.

#2:  Lamar Miller (1st round grade)

Miller is a good fit as a complimentary back to Lynch in the short term, and he’s young which makes him a good option in the long term.  Miller’s only real negative is his inexperience (blocking, etc), and having a few years to be the #2 back while getting coached up could be the perfect situation for him.

#3:  David Wilson (2nd round grade)

There are plenty of times when this front office thinks in ways I don’t understand, and I suspect Wilson will be another of those times.  This front office takes a bit of a “fixer upper” approach to the prospects they target in rounds 2-7.  I don’t think Wilson’s shortcomings are fixable, but they may feel differently.  Wilson is one of the youngest running backs in the draft too, and while I’m not his biggest fan, I think he will do his best in a power zone blocking scheme, which happens to be what the Seahawks run.

#4:  Chris Polk (2nd round grade)

There were many times early last year when Marshawn Lynch looked hopeless that I wondered how different the offense would be if we had Chris Polk in there instead.  Thankfully, things came together and Lynch had a heck of a second half of the season.  Chris Polk may not have a lot of elite attributes, but he’s in his element when playing behind poor blocking.  Some backs can still be effective behind bad lines and some can’t. The future of Seattle’s offensive line is a bit murky, so Polk holds some appeal here in case the run blocking ends up backsliding.

#5:  Doug Martin (2nd round grade)

I have Martin fifth on this list for a few reasons, but that doesn’t mean I think Seattle would be loathe to draft him at #43.  Martin is a good player and I think there is a lot of truth behind the Ray Rice comps.  As I pointed out right after last year’s draft, Seattle is trying to replicate the process that built the Baltimore Ravens.  In that mindset, targeting the next Ray Rice makes a lot of sense.  I just think that Martin will be slightly below some of the other names due to his age, injury concerns, and high number of rushes for loss.  I could definitely be wrong though.  There is very little that separates the members of this years’ 2nd tier.

#6:  Robert Turbin (3rd round grade)

Turbin reminds me so much of Marshawn Lynch.  John Schneider rated Lynch very highly back when he was with Green Bay.  It honestly wouldn’t blow me away if Seattle took Turbin at #43, though I would hope they’d try to get him later than that.

#7:  LaMichael James (3rd round grade)

Pete Carroll has increased familiarity in the Pac-12 and has used it to his advantage on numerous occasions already.  With there being two premiere Pac-12 running backs in this draft, could Carroll lean that way once again?  James is a pretty good fit for Seattle in some ways, particularly in the short term.

#8:  Bernard Pierce (3rd round grade)

Pierce is another young running back that seems to fit a power zone blocking scheme well.  His good measurables will appeal to this front office too.  It wouldn’t shock me if Seattle took Pierce in the 3rd round.

#9:  Tauren Poole (4th round grade)

As a bit of a poor man’s Chris Polk, Poole could have a lot of appeal if for some reason the Seahawks do not select a running back in the first three rounds.

#10:  Terrance Ganaway (5th round grade)

Despite all of his huge runs in the Alamo bowl, Ganaway is not a fast running back.  He’s not very elusive either.  He does have good power and is dependable in short yardage.  His straight ahead power running style could hold some appeal to the Seahawks and their power zone blocking scheme.

Written by Kip Earlywine

I think I’m pretty much done with the draft spotlight series for this year.  In the end, I scouted a little over twenty players in the last month, and spent (on average) about five hours apiece doing the write-ups for each player, and that’s on top of the 15 quarterbacks I reviewed in my late round quarterback series earlier this year.  Before I shut things down and slip into an exhaustion coma, I thought that it might be fun to attempt a “big board” for each position after doing all the work and research over the last few months.

I’m only going to include quarterbacks, running backs, and linebackers, since I spent 99% of my time researching those positions and didn’t really cover anything else.  Additionally, I’ll include my best guesses on what John Schneider’s big board might look like for those positions.  Let me be clear that while Rob and I have heard a handful of specific details about players they like, most of this list will just be guesswork. Bear in mind that all of my rankings are tailored to Seattle’s specific scheme needs (point guard quarterbacks, fast linebackers or coverage oriented linebackers, and zone blocking scheme friendly running backs).  I’ll break this down into three different posts.  For now I’ll start with quarterbacks.

My top ten quarterbacks in the 2012 draft:

#1:  Andrew Luck (deserves to be drafted: #1 overall)

It’s hard to tell how good Luck is under duress, because he was almost never under pressure at Stanford thanks to what was arguably the best offensive line in the country.  That pretty much sums up the totality of my reservations regarding Luck, who’s been the golden boy of college football the last two years.  Any quarterback can bust, but Luck is the safest quarterback with the highest potential to come out since at least Carson Palmer.

#2:  Robert Griffin (deserves to be drafted: top 10 overall)

I don’t want to be the guy who bets against Griffin.  I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a quarterback with his elite combination of intelligence, athleticism, work ethic, arm strength, and accuracy.  That said, Robert Griffin might be the most over hyped quarterback of all time.  His hype is understandable, but it is not deserved.  He has way too many red flags to justify the price Washington paid for him.  His pocket presence and “escapability” aren’t as good as a lot of people think despite the athleticism.  His mechanics and footwork need serious work.  He’s a lanky 215 pounds and was an injury magnet in college.  He also came from a college system that was designed to exploit college level athletes.  For all the crap Darron Thomas gets for having superior athletes and easy plays, people don’t talk about this problem at all when discussing Griffin.

Overall, I find him to be easily inferior to Cam Newton as a prospect.  It’s kind of amazing how much the “diva” label matters to GMs, some of whom felt Newton was not worth a top twenty pick (oops).  Griffin is no diva, in fact, I’d go so far as to say he’s the coolest guy in the whole draft.  I think his likable nature may have sparked his meteoric rise up draft boards as much as anything else.

Regardless, Griffin is a worthy top 10 pick on potential alone and I really do wish him the best.  I’m not expecting him to fail, but I guess you could say I’m more prepared for it than most because his risks are very real and not being talked about nearly enough.

#3:  Russell Wilson (deserves to be drafted: round 3)

After Luck and RG3 leave the board, there is a massive drop off in the quality of the quarterbacks.  Most people have Ryan Tannehill third, with many even swearing to believe he’s worth a top 15 pick.  I know it’s self-serving for Russell Wilson to compare himself to Drew Brees, but I think Wilson has a point.  Brees stands about 5 inches shorter than the average NFL lineman.  Wilson stands 6.5 inches shorter.  Does that extra inch and a half matter when even Brees has to use passing lanes at his height?  Really, any quarterback under 6’2″ is probably going to be a “passing window” quarterback in the NFL.  Jeff Garcia (6’1″) and Michael Vick (6’0″) were very effective in a point guard quarterback scheme and had to use throwing windows because of their height.

Not all short quarterbacks can get around this problem, but Russell Wilson has already proven that he can.  His line at Wisconsin was one of the tallest in the country and taller than many NFL lines, and yet he had almost zero height related problems because the scheme and his own talent allowed him to find throwing lanes to look through.  I honestly worry more about Wilson’s stats being inflated by Wisconsin’s high completion rate offense more than I worry about his height.  If Wilson goes to the right kind of offense, namely an offense just like Seattle’s, I believe that at a minimum he’ll be one of the league’s best backups, with a chance to be a good starter.

Wilson is either NFL material or he isn’t, but I think if he passes that test he’s going to be a good NFL quarterback.  Wilson probably won’t be drafted in the 3rd round, he’ll probably go in rounds 4-6, but quite honestly I would not complain if the Seahawks pulled the trigger on him there.  Wilson has the talent to fundamentally change how the NFL looks at sub-six foot tall quarterbacks.

#4:  Chandler Harnish (deserves to be drafted: round 3)

Concerns about height (6’1″) and level of competition aside, Chandler Harnish is simply the best quarterback in the draft that none of the big name draft analysts are talking about.  His pocket presence, elusiveness, mobility, accuracy, confidence, mechanics, decision-making and his general smooth looking play are all NFL caliber.  Some have criticized his arm strength but I just can’t agree.  His passes arrive with zip and his deep ball isn’t Locker/Mallett territory by any means but it’s good enough.  My only real concern with Harnish was that he ran a disappointing 4.76 forty at the combine, which makes me wonder how much of a hit his field speed will take when going up against NFL defenses.  Harnish may not have ideal measurables, but it’s clear that the guy can flat out play.  The way he plays the game reminds me of Steve Young.

#5:  Ryan Tannehill (deserves to be drafted: round 3)

I remember right after last year’s draft, Rob did a piece on potential quarterbacks to look out for in 2012.  Near the bottom of the list was Ryan Tannehill, a guy that nobody was talking about.  I wasn’t impressed by a lot of the options, but Tannehill jumped out at me immediately as a guy with first round potential.  As we’re starting to find out, a lot of NFL scouts were fully aware of Tannehill’s talents, with some of them claiming to grade Tannehill in the top 15 even before the 2011 season.  I believe them.  Tannehill’s best tape was from 2010, so it makes sense they would like him after his best season.

Unfortunately, Tannehill did not develop as he needed to in 2011 and even took a few steps backward.  I like the guy and he certainly has NFL pro-bowl potential physically, but his decision making is deeply flawed and he might require years of development.  In a way, he’s a bit like this year’s Colin Kaepernick, although each quarterback needs development time for totally different reasons.

#6:  Darron Thomas (deserves to be drafted: round 4)

I’ll admit some bias on this one.  Not Oregon Duck bias, because I’m not a Duck’s fan.  No, I suffer from a Keith Price bias, as Keith Price’s 2011 season developed my thinking on quarterbacks more than any quarterback in a long time.  Thomas is the closest thing in this draft to a Keith Price option.  Both are lanky, semi-athletic quarterbacks with a little inconsistency in their deliveries.  While Thomas gets a lot of bad press for being the quarterback of a gimmick offense, he still played a point guard quarterback role very similar in nature to the role Keith Price played last year.  Thomas looks very comfortable progressing through reads and makes mostly good decisions (unless Cliff Harris is involved).  In a lot of ways his flaws are less egregious than Robert Griffin’s (particularly footwork and mechanics), but because his ceiling isn’t as high he gets crucified for his problems while Griffin gets a free pass.

I have a ton of respect for Chip Kelly, but he’s in the business of competing for national championships, not possibly throwing games away to develop his quarterbacks.  I can’t help but wonder how perceptions of Thomas would differ if he had put up close to the same numbers he did the last two years while playing in Steve Sarkisian’s pro-style offense, which given the similarity of the quarterback roles, doesn’t feel like a stretch to me.  Don’t get me wrong, Price is the better quarterback, but Price is 6’1″ and finished last season at 185 pounds.  Darron Thomas is 6’3″ and weighs 220, both being “franchise quarterback” measurements.  If you have that kind of size with above average mobility and performed well for a major school, you should not be allowed to be an afterthought.  I’m not glossing over Thomas’ flaws- that’s why he’s this far down the list.  But I think a lot of people have fallen into the trap of ignoring his talents because he’s got some imperfections and because the prevailing attitude about him is so stiflingly negative (or as I like to think of it, “Tedford quarterback” syndrome).

Do I think Thomas is likely to be a good starter?  Probably not, but I do think he could become one of the league’s better backups in a point guard quarterback scheme.  To me, that’s worth a 4th round pick.  Given how pervasive the groupthink on Thomas is though, it wouldn’t shock me if he went undrafted.  Which is silly, I think.  Thomas has some talent.  This isn’t Jordan Jefferson we’re talking about here.  I see some natural talent in Thomas, and a lot of stuff to work on, but also a ton of room for development.

#7:  Brock Osweiler (deserves to be drafted: round 4)

I should probably have Osweiler a lot higher than this.  Osweiler passed for 4000 yards last season and threw 28 touchdowns.  He’s 6’7″, but doesn’t come with the typical athleticism drawbacks of an overly tall quarterback.  Purely in terms of potential, Osweiler could become an NFL quarterback that resembles Big Ben:  big, tough, decently mobile, and efficient.  I think that if Pete Carroll could get any quarterback in the NFL, Big Ben would be on the short list because of how his toughness and efficiency compliments a run first offense.

I have a few problems with Osweiler though that provide me with a healthy skepticism.  First is that he was really inconsistent.  He’d have some games where he’d look like 1st round material but other games where he looked like garbage.  His accuracy is also very inconsistent and at times he’ll miss the target by a lot, which reminded me a little of Mike Teel when he was here.  Osweiler also had 13 interceptions last year (one per game), and that’s simply too many.  Another thing is that I’m not seeing natural leadership from Osweiler on the field, or at least not leadership that is on par with most other draftable quarterbacks.  It’s superficial, but I get a bit of a Jimmy Clausen vibe from Osweiler in interviews- though I’ll at least give him credit for trying to be likable, even if it’s incredibly rehearsed sounding.

I also wonder why Osweiler would leave Arizona State after only one season of starting, especially with all the problems he has to work on.  Darron Thomas catches a lot of crap for the same thing, but Thomas started for two years, not one, and even if he had returned in 2012 the odds would be against him boosting his draft stock even if his performance improved.  If Osweiler had returned to Arizona State and improved, he could have easily become a 1st round pick next year.  By declaring now and settling to be a round 2-4 pick, that makes me wonder how much confidence he has in himself.  It definitely feels like Osweiler is cashing in now to cut his losses.  I’d have a lot more respect for him as a prospect if he went the Landry Jones route instead.

#8:  Brandon Weeden (deserves to be drafted: round 4)

We’ve seen Weeden before.  His name was Chris Weinke, the oldest player to ever win the Heisman.  He entered the 2001 draft at 28 years of age just like Weeden.  Despite having second round talent, Weinke was a 4th round pick.  He was a solid backup for a few years, but only briefly started and in the end, didn’t amount to much.

As much as Brandon Weeden would like everyone to believe that his age and maturity will allow him to walk into the NFL without a rookie hangover, history has proven otherwise. Most recently, we’ve seen something similar with Danny Watkins- a player that Seattle had a lot of interest in and very nearly drafted (the Eagles snatched him up a few picks before the Seahawks).  Watkins was 26 years old, but made the argument that he was more NFL ready because of his age.  Instead, Watkins was a brutal flop in his first season, getting benched early in the season and even admitting publicly that he was overwhelmed and not even close to being ready.  I’m not pronouncing Watkins a bust, but I think it’s safe to say that his argument about being NFL ready because of his age has been thoroughly discredited by this point.

Other than some inconsistent accuracy, I found Weeden to be a promising quarterback, but his age will almost certainly limit him to being a short term backup.  His talent is better than a 4th round grade, but his circumstances and limited shelf life drop his grade considerably.

#9:  Kirk Cousins (deserves to be drafted: round 5)

Cousins, a quarterback with remarkable eloquence off the field but limited ability on it, is a bit like this year’s Ricky Stanzi, although quite honestly I liked Stanzi a lot more when I scouted him last year.  You can read my review of Cousins in more detail here, but the main thing is that he’s a mediocre quarterback despite throwing most of his passes less than 10 yards.  His upside in the NFL is Trent Edwards.  Stanzi was a 5th round pick last year.  I’d feel a little bad for him if Cousins was drafted earlier despite being inferior, and it looks very realistic that could happen.

#10:  Austin Davis (deserves to be drafted: round 5)

I wish I knew more about Austin Davis.  I’ve only been able to scout one full game.  My initial impression is mostly positive.  In terms of size he’s similar to Chandler Harnish, and while he’s not the athlete Harnish is, he’s a leader who is money in the red zone.  He has the look of a point guard quarterback.  If I knew more about him, I’d probably have him higher than this.

The front office’s top 10 quarterbacks (my guesses):

(estimated draft grade in parenthesis)

#1:  Andrew Luck (1st round grade)

I’d assume they’d have him ahead of RG3.  While Luck gets compared to Manning a lot I think he probably compares the closest to Big Ben because of his size and accuracy, and as said before, I think Seattle is looking for a Big Ben type quarterback.

#2:  Robert Griffin (1st round grade)

Griffin is a perfect fit for the point guard role and might have more upside than Luck, and this front office values upside more than most.

#3:  Brock Osweiler (2nd round grade)

I’ve heard from two sources that the Seahawks are huge fans of Osweiler, which makes a lot of sense.  I’m not that big a fan of his, but this front office likes players with upside and they like value.  Osweiler has 1st round upside with a 2nd or 3rd round price tag.  He fits the “tough guy” quarterback mold.  Their interest in him makes a lot of sense.

#4:  Ryan Tannehill (2nd round grade)

As said before, Tannehill has a lot of similarities with Colin Kaepernick.  Kaepernick was Seattle’s 2nd highest rated quarterback in the 2011 draft.  From what we’ve heard, Seattle does like Tannehill but seems to like Osweiler a lot more.

#5:  Russell Wilson (4th round grade)

I’ve also heard that Carroll “loves” Russell Wilson.  Not at all surprising.  The Seahawks are one of the few teams that run a scheme tailored for Wilson’s strengths and weaknesses, and there may not be a quarterback in the 2012 draft who “tilts the field” as much as Wilson does with his confidence and leadership.  He’s also a guy that could potentially be available in the late rounds, which scores bonus points as I feel it’s unlikely Seattle will draft a quarterback early.  It’s worth pointing out that last year we heard of several prospects that the Seahawks thought well of but scratched off their boards completely despite that (Marvin Austin and Adrian Clayborn being a couple examples I remember).  So just because Seattle really likes Wilson doesn’t necessarily mean they’d draft him (that said, I hope they do).

#6:  Kirk Cousins (4th round grade)

I wonder if Cousins might be much higher than this.  We’ve heard that (unsurprisingly) the Seahawks are big fans of Cousins, and if Cousins reaches the 4th round, don’t be surprised if the Seahawks end up taking him.  I hope they don’t, personally, but I think it’s very possible.  I’m putting him below Wilson for now since the info we’ve heard was very positive for Wilson and seemingly more positive than Cousins.

#7:  Chandler Harnish (5th round grade)

Here is where the guessing really begins.  Seattle’s draft boards are always a little weird- John Schneider is a guy who marches to the beat of his own drum- though who can blame him with the results he’s had?  I’ll put Harnish in this spot as to me he’s clearly the best of the rest at this point and fits the offense like a glove.  He was also the only quarterback in the draft that was given an invite to visit the team.

#8:  Austin Davis (6th round grade)

In an interview around the time the combine was going on, John Schneider listed Harnish and Davis in the same breath.  Seattle was known to have sent a scout for one of Southern Mississippi’s games last year, and I can’t imagine it was to scout anyone else.  Davis seems to be NFL adequate in terms of tools and he oozes strong intangibles.  He’s another “tilt the field” kind of quarterback.  It would be pretty cool if Seattle drafted him.  Austin Davis was kind enough to give an interview to Rob on this blog last year, and we don’t exactly have a ton of interviews on this site.  So his becoming a Seahawk would be kinda neat.

#9:  BJ Coleman (6th round grade)

As much as I dislike Coleman as a prospect, it’s hard for me to not see him being on the Seahawks’ radar.  He doesn’t have much talent, but he does have terrific measurables without being publicly condemned as damaged goods like Jordan Jefferson.

#10: Bo Levi Mitchell (7th round grade)

I’ll end this list on a bit of a wildcard.  The Seahawks have not shied away from small school talent.  Mitchell made huge strides in each of his last two seasons, including a FCS national championship season in 2010.  I’ve only had a chance to see him in his near upset on the road at Washington, but he’s similar in size and stature to Drew Brees and has terrific pocket presence and elusiveness.  He doesn’t have a world class arm, but it didn’t stop him from making “wow” throws in that game.  He’s a guy that might be totally off the radar of most NFL teams, but I doubt he’s off the Seahawks radar as the Seahawks do a lot of homework on smaller schools.  I’d probably have Mitchell higher on both these lists if I had more of his tape to go off of.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Doug Martin is (most likely) a classic illustration of the gap between “draftniks” and actual NFL front office personnel.  Doug Martin had almost 1600 yards from scrimmage in 2010 with 14 total touchdowns.  He did this while being the featured back of the Boise State Broncos, a perennial top 10 team in college football.  Despite this, Martin was an afterthought entering the 2011 season, thought to be a 4th round pick.  After posting another 1554 total yards and 18 total touchdowns in 2011, Martin was still considered a 4th round prospect as recently as early January of this year.

Then something happened.  Some time around the Senior Bowl, Doug Martin’s stock rocketed from a 4th round afterthought to the near consensus “best back in the draft not named Trent Richardson.”  Now Martin is considered a possible late 1st round pick.

It’s one of those things that gets me thinking.  We’ve heard quotes about NFL scouts having Ryan Tannehill as a top 15 guy going way back.  Rob and I know from our own inside info experiences that Seattle’s own front office tends to look at least one extra year ahead with every draft.  It’s not uncommon for scouts to follow prospects going all the way back to high school.

In other words, I don’t think the NFL world just suddenly discovered Doug Martin, even if it looks that way.  More likely, a scout or two blabbed about Martin to a draftnik at some point, and suddenly the cat was out of the bag.  Because of this, I don’t feel that Martin is over-hyped or a sudden riser: I simply think that he’s finally getting the credit he should have been getting over a year ago.

Now with all that being said, do I personally think Martin is the second best back in this class?  No, I don’t.  Although I do think it’s mighty close.  I slightly favor Miller as the second option, with Polk placing third and Martin fourth.  You might not be able to slip a piece of dental floss between the three though- all of them are outstanding backs in three unique ways, and your preference will ultimately boil down to what you value most in a running back.

Martin had the humblest beginnings of the three.  Whereas Miller and Polk were four star recruits coming out of high school, Martin was only a two star (out of five) prospect.  Whereas Polk and Miller had multiple schools fighting for their signatures, Martin did not get a single scholarship offer outside of Boise State.  ESPN ranked Martin as the 248th best running back coming out of high school.  Miller was 12th and Polk was 66th.

Martin redshirted his first season (2007).  He played special teams and defense during the next season (2008), with just a handful of rushing attempts sprinkled in.  During his third year (2009) Martin broke out after replacing injured starting running back DJ Harper.  Martin finished with over 700 rushing yards in part time duty.  The next year (2010) was his massive debut season as the full time starter in which he had nearly 1600 yards from scrimmage.  He followed that up with another good season in his senior year (2011) with 1554 total yards from scrimmage.

Even though I may not rate Martin quite as high as some, even I will attest to Martin’s special quickness.  There may not be a back in this draft that can move his feet as quickly as Martin can.  Martin has a lightning fast spin move and has elite stop and go ability.  He’s deadly in the open field as he can easily juke defenders out of their shoes.  Martin might be even more elusive in the open field than Lamar Miller, although I tend to favor Miller as he just makes everything look so easy.  Martin’s combination of strong looking physique, quickness, but lack of a third gear is reminiscent of Knowshon Moreno, the 12th overall pick in the 2009 draft.

While Martin struggles in some aspects of penetrating the first level (more on this later), his command and navigation in the second and third levels of the defense looks pro-bowl worthy.  In addition to having great quickness, quick cuts, short area burst and general elusiveness, he’s also patient and smart.  He’ll often wait the extra split second to let a lineman reach his block and use that block for extra yardage.  When Martin gets up to speed he displays impressive strength, often carrying defenders extra yards.  Short (good leverage), strong, and quick is a tough combination to deal with as a defender in the open field.  Martin is one of those running backs that linebackers hate having to tackle.

As a receiver Martin has good hands and has been productive each of the last two years.  He won’t run routes deep downfield like Chris Polk can, but on screens or safety valve passes you can’t ask for much more than what Martin provides.  Martin’s pass blocking is neither good nor bad, though in this class of backs that probably makes him one of the better pass blockers.

Despite being only 5’9″, Martin is a ripped looking 222 pounds.  That added size eases some injury concerns, but Martin suffered his share of injuries at Boise State, including an ankle injury late last season and an injured hamstring in 2008.  I’m kind of surprised he wasn’t injured more.  As strong as Martin can be at full speed, a few times a game he’ll get popped at the line of scrimmage and slammed to ground with great force- not unlike how Justin Forsett could get manhandled when he ran into a defensive lineman instead of a crease.  Martin is not a weak back, but there are many times he gets blown back at the line with so much violence that it’s as if he weighed 170 pounds, not 222.  We’ll have to wait and see, but I suspect that Martin could end up getting pulled in 3rd and short situations in the NFL.

Martin has good balance and has a good habit of churning his legs through contact.  Despite that, I found that he broke surprisingly few tackles.  Whereas a back like Chris Polk (or Marshawn Lynch) has a knack for using his balance to absorb the impact of a hit and transition to a spin out of the tackle, Martin looks caught in a trap.  Rather than break free, Martin typically concedes the tackle while pushing for the extra yard or two.  I really like it when backs have the presence of mind to tack on extra yardage whenever they can, though I would prefer to see Martin break more tackles instead.

For as much flak as Chris Polk has received for his average speed, he’s actually faster than Doug Martin.  And given how well Martin benefited for playing on a national title contending team against Mountain West competition, that lack of top speed should probably be talked about more.  A lot of Martin’s big runs wouldn’t have been so big in the SEC, much less the NFL.  Martin can still be a great NFL back, but big plays will probably drop off considerably and he’ll have to make his living off a high number of mid-range runs.

For a variety of reasons, I found that Martin had a distressingly high number of rushes for negative yardage in my sample despite the run blocking advantage held by Boise State on a week in week out basis.  As said before, Martin’s initial power isn’t enough to compensate for his lack of height.  You would think that being 222 pounds, it wouldn’t matter how tall Martin is, but for whatever reason linemen can blow Martin back at the line as if he weighed far less.  And for as impressive as Martin’s footwork and quickness are beyond the first level, it lures him into a bad habit of dancing too much behind the line, robbing him of the precious time needed to turn a two yard loss into mildly positive play.

Finally, as with many players I’ve reviewed recently, Martin is another “old” college prospect (Earl Thomas is 4 months younger than Doug Martin is).  I don’t worry about age as much with running backs though, as decline for backs is tied more to wear and usage than age.

In conclusion:

Doug Martin is a hell of a running back, and I wouldn’t argue with anyone who ranks him as the second best running back in the draft.  Martin is special enough to warrant late first round consideration, though in my opinion Lamar Miller and Chris Polk are equally as special, if not more so.

What I like most about Martin is his ability to make linebackers miss with his quick feet and impressive lateral agility.   Once he gets past the first level, Martin passes the eyeball test with flying colors.  The Ray Rice and Frank Gore comparisons almost feel inadequate because neither one possess the short area quickness and elusiveness that Martin does.

However, I do have some worries about Martin’s ability to breach the first level, and I also worry about his lack of fit with a zone blocking scheme that asks running backs to can the flashy stuff, make one cut, and go.  Behind a man scheme line that allows for some wiggle room (pun intended) behind the line of scrimmage, it wouldn’t be hard for me to envision Martin as a top five NFL back.  But behind a zone scheme without great blocking, I could just as easily envision Martin struggling as Knowshon Moreno did with Denver.   I don’t think Seattle is the ideal fit for Martin, but we could certainly do worse than taking Martin with the 43rd pick, should he reach it.

Compilation videos:

vs. Colorado State

vs. Georgia

vs. Arizona State

vs. New Mexico