Ranked at #18 in the top 40 watch list, Barkevious Mingo is probably not going to play for the Seahawks if he ends up being a first round pick. Having just drafted ‘ideal LEO’ Bruce Irvin, it’s unlikely Seattle would draft another pass rusher that early next year. Even so, he’s on the list so it’s worth reviewing the tape. LSU are carrying a lot of defensive talent next year and will remain a SEC powerhouse in 2012.
Both Mingo and Sam Montgomery are limited in terms of how they create pressure and the big question that needs to be answered is whether they’re simply effective as a duo against college lineman, or whether they can excel once separated at the next level. I don’t think either would’ve gone before Bruce Irvin this year.
There are things I like about Tyler Wilson, and things that bother me. He might not have completely enjoyed being coached by Bobby Petrino, but he has a technical level only bettered by Matt Barkley thanks to that experience. He’s more mobile than you expect and can scramble, he’s got above average arm strength and in many ways he’s a solid prototype NFL passer.
At the same time, he tends to get happy feet in the pocket. Sometimes he could just be a little more composed and set – let the play develop and deliver. As soon as he senses pressure he looks for space and I’d like to see him stand tall in the pocket a bit more. He doesn’t have a classic release – it’s slingy. That hasn’t been a problem for a guy like Philip Rivers but it has for others. It’s not the kind of thing that’ll put you off a quarterback, but at this early stage we can highlight it. Wilson also blows hot and cold and I’d like to see him have more complete games where he just flat out dominates – he’s capable of it.
Essentially that’s why he’s going back to Arkansas, for another year as the starter in preparation for likely being a first round pick. I think teams will love this guy, especially if he can lead his team to the SEC title which isn’t beyond the realms of possibility. He’s the best quarterback in that conference in 2011 and alongside Barkley and Logan Thomas a legitimate candidate to go #1 overall next year. I also think he’s good enough to shine despite Petrino’s departure. It makes him one of the more intriguing players this year and why I ranked him at #7 on our top 40 watch list.
Ranked at #1 in our top 40 watch list, Matt Barkley probably should be the #1 overall pick next year. That doesn’t mean he will be. Teams are enamoured with big, athletic quarterbacks. It’s not so much why an elite talent like Cam Newton goes #1 overall, but it is a reason why guys like Jake Locker and Ryan Tannehill become top-ten picks. Barkley isn’t the big time athlete with ideal height, a huge arm and plus mobility. He’s a surgeon who’s technically better than any quarterback I’ve ever seen in college.
We’ve seen eight quarterbacks drafted in round one in the last two drafts so Barkley won’t sink, but if a physically superior quarterback (such as Logan Thomas) has an excellent year there’s every chance he won’t go #1 overall. There are other things that could lead to a minor fall. Can Barkley live up to expectations after a fantastic 2011 season? Will a fourth year starting lead to over-analysis if he’s less than perfect? Will teams be slightly concerned by the lack of success experienced by previous USC quarterbacks like Matt Leinart and Mark Sanchez?
Pete Carroll has a strong bond with Matt Barkley. I think both would love the opportunity to work together again in the NFL, for multiple reasons. And despite John Schneider’s penchant for picks, it won’t prevent Seattle from moving up the board for the right player if required. If the Seahawks are in a position where they feel they need to draft a quarterback in round one in 2013 (and who knows if that’ll be the case), they’ll probably be in a position where moving up would be manageable. Still, we’re getting well ahead of ourselves here…
At this early stage, the 2013 class of receivers doesn’t look great. A lot can change over the course of a year but right now, there’s not a great deal to get excited about. I wanted to include some names in the top 40 watch list, but struggled to find clear-cut first round talents. Even so, this list isn’t about just identifying first rounders. It’s about highlighting players that are worth watching during the 2012 college season.
Wilson fits the criteria as a player who should really benefit from Mike Leach’s presence at Washington State. Whether he ever develops into a first round prospect remains to be seen, but he’ll probably get plenty of targets next season.
I didn’t include Keith Price among the top 40 watch-list for 2013, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a player to monitor this year. This was a game where Price outshone Robert Griffin III. It’s also a chance to see UDFA Jermaine Kearse in his final Huskies performance before joining the Seahawks.
This tape comes from 2010, Irvin’s first year at West Virginia where he was predominantly used as an impact pass rusher on third downs. It shows in the snap count – Irvin featured in just 15 defensive snaps, ten of which were on third down. He took just three snaps on first and second down. Yet despite this limited work-load, he had three sacks and three quarterback hits.
First down snaps: 2
Second down snaps: 1
Third down snaps: 10
Fourth down snaps: 2
In 2011 Irvin took 43 snaps against Pittsburgh, 30 against Louisville and 27 against Clemson. He more or less doubled his game-time in comparison to 2011. Almost certainly due to the scheme, Irvin was more comfortable as an impact player at West Virginia. He had 14 sacks in 2010 with 15-snap games. After taking on a larger role at the start of 2011, he managed just one sack in his first five outings. When WVU scaled back his snaps in the second half of the season, he recorded 7.5 sacks in his last five games for the Mountaineers. There’s some consistency between work-load and snap count.
We’ve spent a lot of time on this blog talking about the 3-3-5 and how it didn’t suit Bruce. Pete Carroll has described him as the ‘ideal’ LEO pass rusher, and it’ll be intriguing to see how he adapts into that role as a full-time starter in the future. With Chris Clemons likely to remain the every-down LEO for at least 2012, once again we’ll get a chance to compare Irvin as an impact player and a starter. Even if he never truly translates to a full-time starter, if he can make three sacks in 15 snaps as a pro, nobody will be calling him a bust.
Among the 15 snaps tallied above, Irvin faced a double team six times from two offensive lineman. On one futher snap he had to deal with the running back blocking down to support the right tackle. He got his sacks on 1st and 10, 3rd and 7 and 3rd and 18. If the Seahawks sneak Irvin into the game on third downs, it’s going to be very difficult not to keep the tight end blocking, forcing teams to either take a receiver off the field or stay in max-protect. It won’t always be in the stat-column where #51 had an impact.
The first sack is at 1:58 on the video. Irvin lines up on the right side of the now infamous 3-3-5, with the two other defensive lineman positioned to the extreme left. First of all the blocking is abysmal on this play – despite the fact the left tackle and guard only have to monitor Irvin (there isn’t even a blitzing linebacker) it’s a complete mystery how he’s managed to penetrate inside. He engages the tackle, disengages with too much ease (did the tackle expect inside support from the guard?) and hammers the quarterback to end the first half. Fair play to Irvin for capitalizing on an opportunity, but this was a gift.
Irvin gets his second sack at 3:40, this time lining up on the left side again in a three-man front. He just flat out beats the right tackle for speed off the edge, leans around the corner and gets to the quarterback. This is the type of explosive edge speed the Seahawks are looking for and against sluggish right tackles and tight ends, Irvin should have a field day even in the NFL.
The final sack comes at 4:30. Again, I have no idea what the left tackle and guard are doing here. The tackle is left on an island with Irvin, who just dips inside and sprints past him like he’s not there. Where’s the guard? The most impressive part of this play is the leap at full stretch to get a fingertip to the quarterback’s shoe-laces to take him down. Great execution, again making the most of bad line play to make a maximum impact.
Even when Irvin was blocked out of a play, the tendency to be double teamed created opportunities for others. Teams aren’t going to be able to zone-in on Clemons off the edge with Irvin in the team, and it works the other way too. If the Seahawks can get any kind of impact from Jason Jones as an interior rusher, the defense (and team in general) will receive a substantial upgrade. Irvin will have an impact next year playing around 50-60% of snaps. The acid test will be how he copes as the eventual LEO starter, but it’s a role that suits him a lot better than the 3-3-5.
Ranked by many as a potential top-15 pick this year, Loutulelei returned to finish what he started in college. A former BYU recruit who never attended the school due to academic issues, Lotulelei is now at Utah via the JUCO ranks and he’s made an impact in the PAC-12. He shared the Morris Trophy with Matt Kalil last year and is already being tipped to be a top pick in 2013. We put him at #6 in our top-40 watch list.
I actually think he made the right decision to return to school. He needs polish, he needs time on the field. Lotulelei is far from the finished article as both a pass rusher and a run defender, but he’s a guy to keep an eye on in the fall.
This guy could easily be next years #1 pick. I’m a big Matt Barkley fan, but Logan Thomas is the one quarterback who could go above him in the 2013 draft. Big arm, plus mobility, a little Big Ben to his play and he still has another level to reach. He impressed as a first-year starter but can still get even better. He’s at #2 on our top-40 watch-list for next year, but he could be the first name off the board if he declares.
PFT broke the news today that Bruce Irvin had agreed terms with the Seahawks, becoming the first 2012 round-one pick to sign a contract. The deal is worth $9.34m fully guaranteed over four years, with over $5m in bonuses. The news is less of a huge relief as it was in the past, with the rookie pay scale all but ending the long hold-outs witnessed pre-2011. Eight rookies in total agreed terms today, including second round pick Bobby Wagner and third round quarterback Russell Wilson.
Today we’ll look at Irvin’s senior tape against Louisville after previously studying his performances against Pittsburgh and Clemson.
One of the things we’ve looked at so far is how West Virginia used Irvin, schematically and in down/distance. By now everyone’s aware of the 3-3-5 formation the Mountaineers used and Irvin’s admittance that he didn’t exactly fit within that system. Irvin: “We ran a 3-3-5 stack defense, I was 235 pounds and you got me in a three technique? I can’t help you. You got me going against two 300-pounders and I’m only 235? I don’t know anybody who could play the run against two 300-pound guys at 235 pounds.” The thing I always come back to is this – everybody knows it was a bad fit for Bruce. He admits it, the Seahawks won’t use him in a three-man front and most people who watch WVU tape can see it wasn’t a great fit. Yet he still had over 20 sacks in two years. So what will he do in a position or scheme which suits him down to the ground?
While he was as exclamation point to the pass rush and not used as an every down player at WVU, it’s time the critics realised this is just the way the game is going. If Irvin has ten or more sacks next year as a rookie specialist, few people will be disecting the decision to make him the first pass rusher off the board. Greg Cosell today called the mocking of Seattle’s choice as, “so absurd it’s laughable” before breaking down why:
“It could easily be argued based on tape study that Irvin was the most explosive edge pass rusher in the draft. Think about that for a minute. The most important defensive priority in today’s NFL is rushing the quarterback. You can go all the way back to Hall of Fame coach Bill Walsh in the 1980s; Walsh, always a step ahead, said that fourth quarter pass rush was the key to winning. His theory has evolved to the point where it encompasses all four quarters. Thus, the Seahawks selected a player with explosive attributes at a premium position.
“What about the argument that he’s not a “three-down player”? That’s another use of “conventional wisdom” that does not withstand further scrutiny. Irvin will likely be on the field close to 60 percent of the plays in an increasingly pass-first league. In the NFL, if you cannot defend the pass, you will not win. Last year, the San Francisco 49ers selected Aldon Smith with the seventh pick in the first round. I watched every 49ers defensive play in 2011. Smith did not play more than 20 snaps in the base 3-4 defense. He was exclusively a sub-package player, playing only in nickel and dime personnel. He had 14 sacks in the regular season, and two more in the playoffs. Was he a poor draft choice because he was not a three-down player? Please, let’s think before we react.”
Aldon Smith too approximately 46% less snaps than Von Miller last year, but still had more sacks. Against Louisville Irvin took 30 total snaps, which is 13 less than he took against Pittsburgh and three more than against Clemson. Yet the great thing about the Louisville game is it kind of sums up Cosell’s argument quite emphatically. Irvin’s first snap in the game doesn’t come until the score is already 14-7 to Louisville with 1:21 remaining in the first quarter. Irvin’s first snap is a sack for an 11-yard loss. He stays on the field for 3rd and 19, and gets another sack. Two plays in one entire quarter, two sacks.
The Seahawks have enough defensive lineman who can stop the run. They need a pass rush to get teams off the field. If Irvin can team up with Chris Clemons as a rookie it doesn’t matter if he only plays two snaps in a quarter as long as he can have an impact.
First down snaps: 11
Second down snaps: 11
Third down snaps: 8
Fourth down snaps: 0
This is the first tape I’ve studied where Irvin is on the field for 1st and 10 more than any other down/distance. The two sacks are classic Irvin, beating the tackle to the edge and getting to the quarterback. The second sack is the kind of play that will really appeal to the Seahawks – flashing the explosive get-off, the ability to find the edge before the tackle can adjust and then showing impressive lean to turn at a seemingly impossible angle to make the play. Balance, speed, execution – something the Seahawks lacked last year aside even with Clemons playing the majority of downs.
When Irvin talks about playing the three, look at 1:32 in the video when he lined up as an interior pass rusher. There’s essentially a center, guard and tight end teaming up to block him. It’s almost unexplainable that he’d be put into that position, but WVU did use a lot of creative blitzes and looks and actually made a sack on this play via the left edge rusher with the extra attention Irvin received to the right-center.
Irvin has two staple moves – the speed rush to the edge and the inside counter. He’ll drive and plant his foot into the ground to give the impression he’ll go outside, before sidestepping inside to attack the center. I don’t buy-in to the theory that he’s too weak to engage a tackle, because there are examples of a capable bull rush or successful brawl. In this video though, the left tackle had his number when he got into his pads. This will be the greatest test Irvin has to deal with if he’s to become a permanent LEO pass rusher. Tackles in the NFL will be quicker and trying to counter will be more difficult. Can he cut back with a punch to the chest to jolt the tackle? Because if the tackle always covers the inside but can kick out well enough, he could be dominated at times. Can he adopt a spin move so that when he fakes the edge rush he can avoid contact and break into the middle in a more fluid manner without sidestepping/dancing? Developing a spin move could be a major positive for Bruce.
I like the play at 3:25 where he dips inside and spots a hole to break on the quarterback. Seattle could find some fortune having Irvin dip into the interior from Clemons’ side similar to the way San Francisco uses the two Smith’s. Justin holds the edge, Aldon loops back around and attacks from the interior. Seattle could use the extra attention given to Clemons in order to similarly enhance Irvin’s ability to have an impact. I also like the way Irvin reads the play, it’s an underrated quality he has. Seattle struggled against mobile quarterbacks on the bootleg or PA and getting out of the pocket. Irvin should help here because he reads the game very well in space, takes good angles and will limit the area in which a quarterback is prepared to move into.
Anyone who says Irvin can’t hold up against the run needs to watch the play at 3:49. He blows through the guard and knife’s through from the left end position and destroys the play for a loss. Irvin’s strength for his size is deceptive and while he won’t play with the same level of ferocity on every down, it’s worth noting that he plays stronger than most 235-245lbs lineman.
