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I contacted the source today that I’ve used many times in the past for draft information, including last week’s Seahawks inside view. He was kind of enough to offer some last minute thoughts hours before the draft.
– Ryan Mallett isn’t just off the Seahawks draft board, he’s sinking in a big way. Apparently he won’t be taken until the mid second round at the earliest. The source was quite adamant about this.
– The desire is still very strong to trade down from #25 and they will consider 2012 compensation. If no deal is forthcoming it’s probably going to be about value.
– I’m told it’s likely Seattle will favor offensive lineman if they can’t move down. This is based upon what is expected to happen and who will be available. This can change quickly, but it’s worth considering the guys Kip reviewed a few days ago. Right tackle may be an option and purely from my own opinion, I wonder if you can include Danny Watkins, Rodney Hudson or James Carpenter in the debate too? That’s not from the source, just a hunch.
– Do not expect Andy Dalton to be drafted at #25. The words used to describe the possibility of that happening were very negative. I understand there’s a big drop off between Dalton (#3 on the teams quarterback board) and the top two – an unnamed player at #1 and Colin Kaepernick at #2.
– Speaking of Kaepernick, I believe there’s still a chance he goes at #25 especially if quarterbacks leave the board quickly. I think they want to draft a quarterback but on their terms and preferably after trading down. They are high on his talents. They also won’t ignore better value at a different position if it’s staring them in the face. Even so, if you’re someone who wants the team to draft a QB early you need to back the guy from Nevada.
It’s the eve of the draft, so I wanted to offer some predictions and thoughts based around what I’ve heard about the possible direction the Seahawks will take.
Last year the left tackle position was a main target area. We saw that with the drafting of Russell Okung with the 6th overall pick. It really came down to whoever was remaining between Eric Berry, Trent Williams and Okung. Had Berry been there at #6, he would almost certainly have been the choice, but the Seahawks would have tried to get a left tackle at #14. By adding Earl Thomas to pair with Okung, Seattle was able to address the two places on the roster they most desired.
This year I get the feeling there’s a much more open feel about things. Perhaps there is a slight leaning towards the quarterback position, but they’re certainly not going to reach to fill the need. What it means is there’s likely to be a handful of players they’re prepared to take at #25 in a best player available scenario. Mike Pouncey, the offensive guard from Florida, is one of those players. The Seahawks don’t expect he’ll make it to their pick, because he’s a legitimate option for Miami as early as the #15 overall pick. There are a cluster of teams including New York, Tampa Bay and Kansas City who should ensure he’s off the board before Indianapolis pick at #22.
Jimmy Smith is likely to be another player in that situation. Despite a lot of negativity about his character, the guy is a top-ten talent physically. The Seahawks won’t be the only team to have him higher than Prince Amukamara on their draft board, but again it isn’t likely that either make it to #25. Should that be the case, I think they’ll waste little time handing in the pick.
I’ve no further information on who else they’d be prepared to take at #25 and feel absolutely satisfied. Perhaps they look at a Muhammed Wilkerson (DE, Temple) and see defensive line depth and a Red Bryant clone? Maybe the lack of height on Brandon Harris (CB, Miami) will be less of an issue for the Seahawks given his strong open field tackling ability? Despite my opposition towards spending a high pick on a right tackle – a position easier to fill than most without spending expensive draft stock – I have no information as to their thoughts on a Gabe Carimi (OT, Wisconsin), Nate Solder (OT, Colorado) or Derek Sherrod (OT, Miss. State). Is Jabaal Sheard (DE, Pittsburgh) an option?
The player you can label as a wildcard is Mark Ingram. One member of the Seahawks offensive coaching staff (who joined the team during this off season) loves the guy and has been making a case for the Alabama prospect to be drafted (if available) at #25. I understand that the front office don’t share that enthusiasm for the pick considering the needs elsewhere on the team and the current depth at running back on Seattle’s roster. You do wonder, however, if there is a situation where Ingram is the best player available and they pull the trigger. What if they can’t move down? What if he’s clearly graded much higher than the next available player? It’s perhaps an unlikely scenario, but there is no way I’m ruling out Ingram.
Don’t expect Ryan Mallett, Adrian Clayborn, Stephen Paea, Marcus Cannon, Marvin Austin or Phil Taylor to be the choice. These are all players Seattle has expressed interest in and feel positive about, but for scheme purposes or other undefined reasons, they are not likely to be drafted by Seattle. In the case of Mallett, the Seahawks see his lack of mobility as enough of an issue not to include him on their board.
Depending on what offers are available, the Seahawks will look to trade down. The guy to keep an eye on is Colin Kaepernick, because I understand he’s had consensus approval among the Seahawks draft room. He is the #2 quarterback on Seattle’s board, with #1 remaining unknown, although I would predict it’s Jake Locker. When the Huskies quarterback is drafted by Washington in the top ten, it’ll leave Seattle contemplating their options. Do they like Kaepernick enough to avoid risking missing out on day two of the draft? With seven picks after the #25 on Thursday, teams could well move up to target the Nevada quarterback. New England own the first pick of day two and rest assured they will be fielding calls for the pick with the Patriots only currently owning five picks in 2012.
If they are not committed to Kaepernick, they may be willing to accept any deal to move down with offers as low as an extra 4th or 5th rounder touted. Ideally, they want that 3rd round pick back they spent on Charlie Whitehurst. It’s going to be very interesting to see how they play this if the Pouncey’s and Smith’s are off the board and whether they’d actually commit a first round pick to a guy like Kaepernick. It could happen.
Yesterday we had information about Carson Palmer potentially landing in Seattle down the line. Make no mistake, drafting a guy like Kaepernick doesn’t impact that at all. Whether it’s Palmer or Matt Hasselbeck starting in 2011, the idea will be that in two years time they want to hand over the keys to a guy they have developed. It would be a perfect scenario to train up Kaepernick behind the veteran, ready to start in the future. It’s a lot of stock placed in one position, particularly if you include the Whitehurst deal. Even so, we’re talking about the most important position in football here, it warrants this much attention.
Players to keep an eye on in round one at #25 or after a small trade down the board:
Confirmed: Mike Pouncey, Jimmy Smith, Colin Kaepernick, Mark Ingram
Speculation: Jake Locker, Jabaal Sheard, Muhammed Wilkerson, Prince Amukamara
Late round prospects to watch:
Confirmed: Lee Ziemba (OT, Auburn), DeMarcus Van Dyke (CB, Miami), Curtis Marsh (CB, Utah State), Jeff Tarpinian (LB, Iowa)
Later tonight I will publish my final mock draft for 2011…
So stay tuned!
Andrew Luck was a 70% passer last year, how does it compare?
During the 2010 college football season I tallied statistics from all of the top quarterbacks, receivers, running backs and defenders and listed the results in the prospect tracker. You can find the numbers in the new menu bar under the title ‘prospects‘.
I chose the players I expected to get the most attention on draft day, so it’s quite telling that I decided against adding Andy Dalton. Whenever I watched TCU in 2009 or 2010 I never saw him as anything more than late round fodder and a career backup. Depending on who you believe, he might have a chance to go in round two on Friday and I understand he’s the third quarterback on Seattle’s draft board. Either I made a major error in grading Dalton, or he’s seriously over rated.
Using the prospect tracker I wanted to compare the performance of Colin Kaepernick, who I believe is receiving serious interest from the pacific north west. The stats are based on regular season performances only, so they don’t account for a 192-yard, one touchdown performance against Boston College in the Kraft ‘Fight Hunger’ Bowl.
Despite opting not to declare for the 2011 draft, I kept Andrew Luck’s name on the list if only for the basis of a comparison. After all, this is the poster boy for college football at the moment and the man everyone expects to be the #1 overall pick next year. His numbers at Stanford in 2011 were very impressive, yet distinctly similar to Colin Kaepernick’s.
Luck went 245/349 passing for the season with an excelent 70% completion rate. Kaepernick wasn’t far behind, going 213/326 for a 65% completion rate.
Very little separated each players yards-per-attempt (8.9 to 8.7 in favor of Luck). Kaepernick had 2830 passing yards compared to Luck’s 3051. Both players threw seven interceptions, but Luck recorded seven more passing touchdowns. To compensate, Kaepernick’s running ability in Nevada’s pistol offense generated 1184 yards and an eye catching 20 touchdowns compared to Luck’s 438 yards and three scores. Of course, Luck ran a very different offense where his mobility and sneaky athleticism was merely a bonus and Kaepernick’s rushing qualities were a focal point for the Wolfpack.
Numbers only tell one side of the story of course, because using pure statistics you’d find it hard to seperate the pair. I’m not trying to say in this article that the two are on an equal footing, something I’m sure Colin Kaepernick – being a humble individual – would accept himself. Kaepernick will not be the first overall pick this year even if he does find a home in round one. Luck’s throwing mechanics are uniquely perfect for a college quarterback and he has some experience of pre-snap reads and adjustments, although a lot of those appeared to be scripted.
Level of competition also has to be taken into account. Kaepernick did beat Boise State, California, Fresno State and Boston College but Nevada’s schedule was also padded out with Eastern Washington, Idaho, Louisiana Tech and Utah State. Stanford negotiated the PAC-10 with some style, only losing to eventual BCS Championship runners-up Oregon on the road.
One thing the numbers do back up is Kaepernick’s elusiveness. He was sacked just ten times in 2010, which is a lot less than other mobile quarterbacks such as Jake Locker (19), Cam Newton (23), Blaine Gabbert (23) and Christian Ponder (23). Again though, you have to wonder about level of competition considering Andy Dalton’s eight sacks at TCU running a similarly weaker schedule. Andrew Luck was sacked an incredible six times, testament not only to his ability to get the ball out quickly but also to Stanford’s superb offensive line.
It is interesting to see that Kaepernick had a better completion percentage than both Locker and Gabbert, significantly so in Locker’s case. Again this perhaps doesn’t tell the whole story as Kaepernick was never faced with an almost impossible situation against Stanford and Nebraska, although performances such as Locker’s against UCLA proved he wasn’t entirely blameless. Another interesting note on Gabbert is that his 62% completion rate came despite throwing more passes (418) than anyone other than Nathan Enderle (478). Gabbert also had the lowest number of touchdowns (15).
Looking at Kaepernick’s previous years at Nevada also hints toward some level of development as a passer. He took less sacks, significantly improved his completion percentage (he averaged in the mid-50’s before 2010) and maintained a low turn over ratio, throwing just 24 interceptions in four years of starting football.
On the face of it the numbers are very impressive and you want to see that development, particularly as a senior. It’s one of the criticisms labelled at Jake Locker who would almost certainly, in my opinion, have been the fourth overall pick last year to Washington. His inability to pass in the 60% range – whatever the reason – gave ammunition to the critics. Statistics can be manipulated in both a positive and negative way and rest assured had Locker been a 60-65% passer, even if the performance wasn’t ultimately much better, people would’ve spoken about him in a more favorable manner. It’s really only a 3% improvement in terms of completions, which is nothing.
Kaepernick did make that jump and the team who ultimately drafts him this week will hope that it’s just the start of further development as a passer, because that is how he’ll be successful at the next level.
Pete Carroll and John Schneider see depth as an issue. It’s not really surprising, considering the number of injuries sustained in recent years and how the team has suffered as a consequence. The Seahawks got better value than usual out of their late round picks last year, finding contributors like Walter Thurmond and trading for Leon Washington. They also found a few guys for the future, including Kam Chancellor and Anthony McCoy.
Currently they own the second pick in round four, two picks in round five and some late round change in the 6th and 7th. Schneider has been part of a franchise in Green Bay that has the best draft pick retention in the league over the last few years. Seattle must emulate that and it means continuing to search for diamonds.
The list further down the board will be much larger than the possible options at #25 – that’s pretty obvious due to the talent pool and nature of the draft. I understand these four are among the players the team is considering – in some cases possibly as early as #57 and in others as low as priority undrafted free agents.
DeMarcus Van Dyke (CB, Miami)
Originally seen as a late round pick, now a fast riser after running a 4.28 at the combine. If the Seahawks want him badly enough, they may have to consider spending their #57 pick. A track star at Miami, he sometimes plays that way with a lack of natural instinct for the position, but he has raw potential as a cover corner.
Lee Ziemba (OL, Auburn)
Played right tackle for the Championship winning Tigers. Considered a fourth round prospect in some quarters and could be a depth solution on the offensive line at 6-5, 317lbs. Very superstitious apparently and a four year starter, but not considered an obvious fit in the zone blocking scheme.
Curtis Marsh (CB, Utah State)
Converted running back who is believed to be a hard working, team first kind of guy. Possible 5th or 6th round selection. Above average speed but struggled with a hamstring injury at the Senior Bowl. Reportedly strongest in press coverage.
Jeff Tarpinian (LB, Iowa)
Special teams prospect who carries a late round or UDFA grade. It’s not hard to see where his value is (see video below).
Miami's Orlando Franklin doesn't need a helmet to block
I’ve updated the two-round mock draft today to represent how I feel some of the teams may be thinking five days before the draft.
Essentially it comes down to two factors. Firstly, Colin Kaepernick is very much an option for the Seahawks and they believe they can trade down and target him at the top of round two. If a deal is not forthcoming, does the team still feel comfortable drafting him in round one? To see the latest projection, click here or select ‘Mock Draft’ in the menu bar above.
Secondly, which players do the Seahawks grade higher than Kaepernick so that they would avoid the position with their first pick in the draft? Mike Pouncey appears to be one of them. I would project that Jimmy Smith is another and I understand one member of the offensive coaching staff is very high on Mark Ingram. I truly believe neither Pouncey or Smith will be available at #25 and the team isn’t trading up for them. Correctly, the Seahawks believe running back would be a luxury considering their investment in the position through Marshawn Lynch and the many other needs elsewhere.
The impression I’m getting is that they aren’t tied to any one position and that’s an opinion John Schneider expressed in his press conference last week. They would probably like to make an investment in quarterback first and foremost, but they are confident in their ability to perhaps solve three or four problems instead of one. They found some mid-to-late round talent last year, but didn’t strike gold in round two gambling on Golden Tate. You can’t write him off after one year, but evidently he has a lot of work to do to warrant the investment Seattle made.
Nevertheless, Kaepernick fits the bill in terms of what they’re looking for in a quarterback – mobility, arm strength, the ability to extend plays, the non-reliance on brilliant pass protection in order to make plays, running ability to develop the zone blocking scheme and become part of the overall gameplan, character and playmaking quality.
It’d be taking a chance, just like trading for Charlie Whitehurst was taking a chance. Kaepernick would not be expected to start in year one, with either Matt Hasselbeck being re-signed or Carson Palmer being brought in from Cincinnati for perhaps a 5th rounder and a further conditional pick depending on performance. I believe a deal like that could be possible to land Palmer and there has been some discussion. Both are stop-gap options that the team likes enough to run with as it re-builds. There are people out there who rate Kaepernick highly, very highly. Don’t sleep on him being off the board before Seattle is on the board at #25, particularly if a team trades back into the first.
In round two I’ve gone back to the Seahawks taking an interior lineman in Miami’s Orlando Franklin. I suspect guard is an area they are determined to improve and will consider early – but as with other needs, they aren’t going to focus in on the position as a life or death situation.
Elsewhere, I have Buffalo making a surprise move at #3 taking Cameron Jordan. Make no mistake he is a big-time talent who would instantly upgrade Buffalo’s defense. Adding Phil Taylor in round two could set up that defensive front for a long time, particularly in a division that contains a lot of offensive punch. So why not Von Miller, Blaine Gabbert, AJ Green or Patrick Peterson? No specific reason, but how many people had C.J. Spiller pinned to #9 last year? Or Aaron Maybin and Eric Woods to Buffalo the year before? Zero. That alone is not enough to warrant the Jordan projection, but he is a flashy playmaker who will provide a quick impact at a position of need. To some degree, he could be the back-up option to Marcell Dareus for Buffalo.
I have Gabbert dropping to #8 and past a few quarterback needy teams. Cincinnati is still a very likely proposition, but would anyone be surprised if they take a receiver in round one? AJ Green may be able to help a mediocre pick at quarterback in round two (such as Christian Ponder or Andy Dalton) look a little brighter. Arizona should take him at #5 but appear to be leaning towards a veteran option (Marc Bulger is the hot tip). San Francisco, for whatever reason, seems an unlikely fit. If Gabbert does squeeze past the first seven picks, you’re looking at Tennessee as perhaps being the floor.
The reason for the fall in this projection? Gabbert looks the part across the board, yet he was just so completely unspectacular in college. You’re investing in the unknown to a degree. I suspect that Gabbert will be top of a lot of boards in the quarterback department, but may not thrill some GM’s enough to make the call. At the end of the day, Carolina are going to end up taking Cam Newton – a guy with a bigger boom and a bigger bust ratio – over Gabbert, who is the presumed safe option.
I could be wrong here and Gabbert go as high as #2-#4 overall, or perhaps he will slip a little bit?
Following up yesterday’s information, I’ve had further contact with my source and he’s been able to shed a bit more light on a few things. Remember, these are just things he’s heard. I’m merely relaying the information. Don’t forget to check out my earlier article on Colin Kaepernick and the ‘Pete Carroll offense’.
– Ryan Mallett is not part of Seattle’s plans due only to a lack of mobility and it is not an issue of character.
– It’s understood Colin Kaepernick is the second ranked quarterback on Seattle’s board and apparently Andy Dalton is ranked at #3. The top ranked quarterback is not known. It’s important to remember that guaranteed top-ten locks Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert are probably not on the board due to their likely exit point.
– Mike Pouncey is viewed as a guard, not a center and is a favorite but likely won’t last to #25.
– Adrian Clayborn, Marcus Cannon, Phil Taylor, Stephen Paea and Marvin Austin – players the team has shown interest in but will not be drafting for various reasons.
– Some mid/late rounders to keep an eye on – Curtis Marsh (CB, Utah State), DeMarcus Van Dyke (CB, Miami), Lee Ziemba (OL, Auburn), Jeff Tarpinian (LB, Iowa).
– It’s understood that Jimmy Smith is valued higher than Prince Amukamara and that he’s likely to go in the 15-20 range on draft day.
– Trading up appears to be unlikely. In the fact the words used by my source were that a trade up won’t occur unless “Aaron Rodgers re-enters the draft”.
– Finally, it’s said that one high profile member of the coaching staff is a big fan of Mark Ingram and would love to draft him at #25 if available. However, the front office believe there are too many needs on the roster to draft a running back in round one.
Gaining momentum: Could Colin Kaepernick be a Seahawk next week?
I wanted to offer some information I received today from a proven source. Regular visitors to the blog will be aware of the success rate of this source in the past. There have been occasions when the information hasn’t been 100% accurate as well, but never illogical. This is speculation and not fact, but as I say it comes from a guy I trust.
– Ryan Mallett is not on the Seahawks draft board. No reasons were given.
– The Seahawks like Mike Pouncey (OG, Florida) but the belief is he’ll be off the board before the 25th overall pick. He is seemingly receiving consensus approval.
– Trading down is very much part of their plans. The desire is to drop down into the first 5-7 picks of the second round. Regaining a third round pick is considered the target. If a deal isn’t there the likelihood is they’ll remain at #25 although depending on how the board falls, they may consider dropping back for as little as an extra 4th or 5th rounder.
– I understand the other player that is gaining approval across the board is Colin Kaepernick (QB, Nevada). It’s believed they can get him in the early second round, but could be willing to take him at #25.
– The third player I’m told they really like is Stephen Paea (DT, Oregon State). The Seahawks were incredibly impressed with him. Nevertheless, it’s suggested he won’t likely be an option based on where he is projected to go.
One final note, it’s believed the team came close to completing a deal with Matt Hasselbeck just before the CBA expired with guaranteed cash the stumbling block. This is something the Seahawks expected more flexibility with, but it didn’t happen.
Don’t forget to check the latest Seahawks Draft Blog mock draft.
This is my penultimate mock draft of the season. My final projection will be a week today, the night before the draft.
I’ve mixed things up a bit in the top ten. Buffalo remain a wildcard at #3 and could go in a number of directions. I think it comes down to this – do they view Blaine Gabbert as a franchise quarterback? If they do, then he probably has to be the pick. Ryan Fitzgerald can start the 2011 season and pass on the baton. Let’s not kid ourselves here though, Buffalo do have a long term need at quarterback and addressing the position has to be an option.
Von Miller isn’t a top-five pick for me. A year ago nobody talked him up as even a first round pick after a 17-sack season. He chose not to declare after receiving a third round grade from the draft committee. Now he’s a top-five lock? Like Aaron Curry (who also received a third round grade and shot up the board later on) he probably will go early, but I wouldn’t make that move. Miller is a better prospect than Curry because he can actually rush the passer and did so in college with success. Even so, I’m not convinced he’s worthy of a high pick.
I love Cameron Jordan, he’s a top-ten talent. Yet I consistently struggle to find him a home in that range. He could go as high as #3 to Buffalo (believe it) and as low as #18 to San Diego. I want to put him at #3, maybe in next week’s final mock?
I’ve also added an ‘alternative’ pick. This is very loose – guys who are still on the board that would be a viable option.
As for the Seahawks, I’ve gone back to Jabaal Sheard. If he lasts until #25 I can see that being a possibility. He’s got the size of the LEO and the speed that will make the most of the position. Despite not being the biggest, he plays above his size and is a real physical threat who works well against the run. Probably one of the most under rated players in the draft who’s best football will come at the next level.
Having said that, I’m still really torn on what the Seahawks will do. I keep going back to the quarterbacks and how much of a void that is right now. Nobody expects a big trade up the board to target the top four, yet I wouldn’t rule it out.
Talking of quarterbacks…
More Ryan Mallett controversy today. The National Football Post is reporting he missed a meeting with the Carolina Panthers due to illness and then cites an unnamed source suggesting Mallett was ‘out on the town’ the night before.
I want to avoid being labelled the guy’s personal excuse maker – but really? This is what we’ve come to? An unnamed source who doesn’t say the guy was drunk (or even drinking) but was ‘out late’?
Really I don’t know what to make of this anymore. It really looks like another sign of awful reporting on a guy who has been hit with a sledgehammer during this off season. Maybe somebody really wants Ryan Mallett to fall down the board, or maybe he really can’t handle himself? I still don’t think this is a fair report and it’s completely lacking in detail.
EDIT – here’s the response. Carolina have also issued a statement:
“Ryan Mallett came for a visit to Charlotte two weeks ago. He had dinner with our coaches the evening he arrived and came down from his hotel room for a scheduled breakfast meeting the following morning upon which time he informed a staff member that he had been sick all night with nausea. We told Ryan that if he was ill to remain in his room as long as the nausea existed. We took him to the airport later that afternoon for his scheduled flight.”
To see the latest projection, click here or select MOCK DRAFT in the menu bar.
Notre Dame's Kyle Rudolph makes the cut
I’m not a big fan of big boards. How do you distinguish between prospects of a similar level? What puts a guy at #3 instead of #4? It’s a way for the likes of Mel Kiper to tally who’s stock is rising or falling, but the changes are sometimes so intricate it’s hardly worth the bother.
I like the way Gil Brandt does things. He separates the prospects into tier’s, grouping guys together of a similar quality.
A few people have asked about a big board on the blog and it’s something I’ve avoided previously. With less than a fortnight to go until the 2011 draft, I thought I’d put something together using the Brandt methodology. It’s a top-25 broken into seperate tiers that are explained along the way.
Tier one: Prospects in contention to go first overall
This is only a small list, but if you own the #1 overall pick you don’t need a cluster of names. These three are the prospects I’d consider drafting with the top choice and if I’m in the top five, I’m hoping to grab one of these guys. The quarterback will always take preference if you have a need at the position, although you don’t just include the top prospect for the sake of it. If you have a franchise quarterback or made that investment recently, you probably aren’t going in that direction here.
Cam Newton (QB, Auburn)
Newton has limitless potential and is a better passer than he gets credit for. He’s a player you can build a franchise around for the long term, but I also believe he can have an instant impact working in a scaled down playbook. If I was forming a listed big board like Mel Kiper, Newton would be #1.
AJ Green (WR, Georgia)
A really polished route runner who flashes a competitive streak despite not having the biggest frame. He’s quick rather than elite in terms of speed, but he has so much control and should produce quickly in his career. Capable of spectacular plays and can become a quarterback’s best friend.
Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson)
Bowers is a beast and despite all the recent talk of injuries – if he passes the medical checks I’m still taking him very early. You watch him during that 16-sack season and see major potential to be a dominant force at the next level. I’d be looking for 8-10 sacks as a rookie, which is a realistic target.
Tier two: Prospects you’d consider in the top-ten
The next group are players you’d be happy to take in the first ten picks and would provide excellent value in that 11-20 range if they fall.
Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas)
If I don’t have a quarterback and I’m picking in the top ten, I’m looking at Mallett strongly. He has the physical tools, he understands pro-concepts, he’s a surgeon progressing through reads and he has the necessary experience controlling an offense and changing plays at the line of scrimmage. There’s been too much negativity surrounding this guy.
Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU)
Peterson has all the tools to become an all-rounder – he’s a good coverage guy, physical against the run and he provides a threat as a kick returner. He’s capable of taking on a top-receiver one-on-one and competing, we saw that in two games against Julio Jones.
Jimmy Smith (CB, Colorado)
Perhaps a player with even more potential than Peterson. When you watch Smith on tape, he has everything you look for in a cornerback. Many would argue differently, but I think there’s every chance he’ll have a better career than Peterson.
Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama)
Scheme flexible and is more than capable of playing as a disruptive force up the middle or setting the edge against the run. He won’t be a big stat-guy at the next level, but whoever takes him will notice his value.
Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn)
Unmatched quickness off the snap and has a cluster of moves to compliment that burst. He will consistently get into the backfield warranting extra attention, which will create opportunities for your edge rushers. Has a nasty streak which will lead to penalties, but manage it and you can turn it into a positive.
Cameron Jordan (DE, California)
He’s quick for his size and teams in a 4-3 should still consider him. Fluid technician who finds ways to get into the backfield. Jordan’s best years will come in the pro’s and with a star personality to match his talent, there’s no reason why teams shouldn’t consider him very early.
Julio Jones (WR, Alabama)
Bounced back from an inconsistent 2009 to show real progress in Alabama’s run heavy offense. Understands routes and how to get open, elite size and speed combination. Jones can make Hollywood plays but also offer a safety net for a young quarterback. He’s dedicated and comes from a great programme that emphasises blocking.
Tier three: Prospects who could go in the top 10-15 based on need but are graded between 10-25
If your big need is quarterback or left tackle and you’re picking in the top ten, you might consider a guy in tier three. I hate using the word ‘reach’ because some positions are too important to ignore. If I’m holding a pick in the 11-25 range these are the guys I look at first, including anyone else who may have fallen out of my top two tiers.
Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri)
Has everything you look for in a top quarterback – mobility, good arm, character and he’s accurate. Even so, he’s been inconsistent and there is a certain degree of ‘unknown’ about Gabbert. The system he comes from in Missouri makes it difficult to make a full judgement either way. I’d take him in the top ten, but I put him behind Newton and Mallett and into tier three.
Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama)
Loves the game and plays every snap like it might be his last. Ingram has major star quality minus the elite breakaway speed, but he’ll be a work horse with major production if he’s drafted by a team that can run the ball. Intelligent, driven, understands blocking and has the vision to turn a small hole into a big gain.
Corey Liuget (DT, Illinois)
Ideal size for the three technique position and has a great first step off the snap. Consistently disruptive on tape and he’ll get into the backfield and force mistakes. He hasn’t got the production of Fairley or the scheme adaptability of Dareus, but he comes a close third in a strong group of defensive tackles.
Tyron Smith (OT, USC)
It became apparent towards the end of the college season that Smith would be the best offensive tackle in a class lacking that elite player at the position. This choice is based completely on upside – he has the frame, the lateral mobility and the strength to be one of the best in the NFL. You’re taking a chance, but it’s a calculated gamble.
JJ Watt (DE, Wisconsin)
He hasn’t got the elite speed and he’s more perspiration than style, but JJ Watt finds a way to make plays. Every week he’ll play hard and he’ll over achieve. In 2010 he had seven sacks, an interception and he blocked three kicks. He’s strictly a 3-4 defensive end, but in that scheme he’ll do what it takes to have an impact.
Robert Quinn (DE, North Carolina)
There are things that concern me about Quinn – the tumor and the lack of football for two years ahead of his rookie season. I think he’s best suited to an orthodox 4-3 or the LEO position in Seattle. The tape shows real edge quality and no lack of effort, but he hasn’t got a great repertoire. If he plays college ball in 2010 and gets 10+ sacks he’d be a candidate to go second overall, instead he drops into tier three.
Aldon Smith (DE, Missouri)
Another player who could be higher but has some issues. Did he return from injury too quickly in 2010? He didn’t look the same dominant player from 2009 with top-ten potential. Smith was anonymous in the bowl defeat to Iowa. Otherwise he’s got perfect size for a 4-3 end, great technique and a better range than Robert Quinn.
Jabaal Sheard (DE, Pittsburgh)
Under rated player with the potential to be better than Quinn and Smith. Sheard plays hard every snap and he’s great against the run. He’s not the biggest statistically, but he looks big on tape. Speed is right up there off the edge and he was one of the quicker ends at the combine. Love the guy, his best years are to come and he fits both schemes.
Mike Pouncey (OG/C, Florida)
Just a solid player who starts in week one and gets on with his job. Had problems snapping early in the 2010 season but made corrections. I still prefer him at guard but teams who need a center should have no issues making this pick. The ultimate safe, unspectacular choice and good teams like New York and San Diego should consider this, with Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Philadelphia close behind.
Von Miller (OLB, Texas A&M)
I have Miller as a pure 4-3 outside linebacker. He can rush the passer from that position and still generate sacks – he could have a Julian Peterson type impact on the league. But the fact he’s a linebacker and can’t play up at the line lowers his stock for me. He’ll get washed out against the run up front and speed is really his only true asset. It’s also a big asset to have, of course.
Tier four: Prospects I’d grade as top-25 picks
Obviously players in this group will be off the board due to need (I fully expect Jake Locker to be drafted by Washington). However, these are the last five players I’d grade as part of my top-25.
Jake Locker (QB, Washington)
If I needed a quarterback and the top three are gone, in this range I take a chance on Locker’s upside. He can become a great player in the NFL, something that’s often forgotten. There will be growing pains.
Phil Taylor (DT, Baylor)
Looks sensational given his size and moves freely for a big tackle. The weight instantly makes people think he’ll play the nose, but I could see him at the five technique and maybe even playing some three technique.
Stephen Paea (DT, Orego State)
Slightly undersized for a 4-3 nose tackle, but offers so much value against the run. Added some pass rush production as a senior but his value in the NFL will come as a run stopper. If I’m Indianapolis, I ignore the need at offensive tackle to take this guy at #22.
Kyle Rudolph (TE, Notre Dame)
Injuries have hampered his stock but there’s no doubt to me a clean bill of health secures a first round grade. He’s a playmaker who adds dimensions to an offense, opening up the playbook.
Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska)
You’re getting an athletic player with potential to become a solid if unspectacular starter. He will make mistakes and he’s not going to be a great playmaker, but he’s a solid pick.
Just missed out:
Rodney Hudson (OG, Florida State), Adrian Clayborn (DE, Iowa), Derek Sherrod (OT, Miss. State), Brooks Reed (DE, Arizona), Akeem Ayers (OLB, UCLA).
Players I rate higher than most:
Jordan Todman (RB, Connecticut), James Carpenter (OT, Alabama), Jeremy Beal (DE, Oklahoma), Brandon Burton (CB, Utah), Pernell McPhee (DE, Miss. State), Ricky Stanzi (QB, Iowa)
