Category: Front Page News (Page 215 of 367)

I’ll be conducting a daily live blog Friday-to-Monday during the combine workouts. I hope you’ll join in the debate and get involved. Today I wanted to run through some of the things I’ll be looking out for over this year. Measurements begin on Wednesday with the OL’s, TE’s and PK’s. Workouts begin on Friday. For a full schedule breakdown, click here.

— Eli Harold is a perfect LEO pass rusher. He’s long, lean and explosive. I think he could end up going in the top ten. Is there a more natural fit for Dan Quinn if he wants to emulate Seattle’s scheme in Atlanta? Cliff Avril and Bruce Irvin are good comparisons for what to look for. Avril ran a 4.51 with a 1.50 ten yard split. Irvin ran a 4.50 with a 1.55 ten yard split. They were both 6-3 — Avril had 8lbs on Irvin (253 vs 245). Harold is listed at 6-4, 250lbs.

— Will LSU defensive end Danielle Hunter win the combine? He has a ridiculously low body fat percentage (4%), he’s incredibly long and fluid. Personally I think his tape is horrendous but you can see the upside based purely on athleticism. He could go off in Indianapolis, excelling across the board in every drill.

— Who are the candidates to challenge Hunter? Eli Harold has to be in with a shout. Owamagbe Odighizuwa is built like a Greek God and could have a Ziggy Ansah type weekend. Ansah ran a 4.63 at 271lbs, had a terrific 4.26 short shuttle and a 34.5 inch vert. Odighizuwa doesn’t have Ansah’s 35-inch arms but he has enormous 11-inch hands and similar size (266lbs).

— Melvin Gordon is a workout machine. A true gym rat. Let’s see if all the work was worth it here. Jamaal Charles, the player he’s often compared to, ran a 4.38. I wouldn’t expect that kind of speed, but he’s probably a solid 4.4 runner. He has a fantastic, errr, ‘ass’, so he could challenge the 11-2 broad jumps by Lache Seastrunk, Anthony Alridge and Carl Stewart (best recorded jump in last ten years).

— Can William & Mary receiver Tre McBride prove he’s a fantastic athlete? Reports suggest he can get into the 4.4’s. I need to see it to believe it. Even if he runs in the 4.5’s — it shouldn’t be a concern. He’s shown enough suddenness, playmaking ability, ball skills, size and character to warrant serious consideration possibly as early as the late second round. He’s one of the most exciting receivers in the class and deserves more attention.

— Will Tevin Coleman work out? Tony Pauline reported in December he was carrying a foot injury. He was compared to Darren McFadden by Mike Mayock today. It’d be interesting to see if he can get anywhere near McFadden’s 4.33 forty time. UPDATE — Gil Brandt has confirmed Coleman will not participate.

— How fast is Jaelen Strong and what is his broad jump? I think he’s going to produce an excellent vertical with his basketball bloodlines. The main concern is separation skills. Can he show initial quickness in the forty and lower body explosion in the broad? He’s got a real chip on his shoulder — his Twitter timeline is a constant stream of retweeted criticisms. Let’s see if he can prove the doubters wrong.

— Just how fast are Devin Smith and Phillip Dorsett? I think Dorsett has a clear edge between the two and should provide the fastest time over the four days. Considering both players lack size, speed is going to be crucial. The quickest time by a receiver in the last ten years was the 4.27 by Marquise Goodwin in 2013, followed by Jacoby Ford (4.28) and Darrius Heyward-Bey (4.30). If I had to guess, I think Dorsett runs in the 4.3’s.

— Sammie Coates and Breshad Perriman have similar traits. They look the part and should have excellent combines. They need to. They have to convince teams to invest in upside potential because catching the ball consistently is a problem for both. If they want to generate high second round (or even first round) grades, they have to live up to expectations and test well across the board. And they need a team or two to believe they can improve with a summer on the jugs machine. Athleticism alone wasn’t enough for Cody Latimer (who had amazing hands) to get in round one. I think Coates and Perriman will struggle to crack day one, but if they’re going to — it’ll be down to their physical skills.

— Can Dorial Green-Beckham make a statement? He doesn’t just have to ace team interviews in Indianapolis. I think he needs to speak well to the media and show a ‘changed man’ vibe. I want to see him answer some difficult questions. On the field he needs to flash freak-of-nature talent at 6-6 and 225lbs. This is an opportunity to regain some momentum. The character concerns are legit and damaging for DGB. He needs to make some positive headines. Cornerback Marcus Peters faces a similar test — although I expect he’ll ace team and media interviews. He’s a smooth operator.

— How quick is Nelson Agholor? Watching him dunk a basketball, compete all over the field, return punts and play with real grit and determination makes you want to believe in the guy. A really good forty time could pump up his stock. Running a 4.52 last year hurt former teammate Marqise Lee. I’m not sure he has the potential to add too much weight and he’s skinny. That’s a concern. Guys without size need to be sudden and quick. I think he can beat Lee’s time. I like him.

— Just how special is Devin Funchess? Speaking of dunks, how about the video posted in yesterday’s piece? Expect an incredible vertical jump. I think he can produce a terrific 3-cone too, he shows good change of direction skills on the field. The main concern is he’s a build-up-speed runner and might not break the 4.7’s. If he can crack the 4.6’s — watch out. He’s working with the TE’s not the WR’s. Mike Mayock says he has better movement skills than Kelvin Benjamin. Funchess is the biggest enigma in the draft.

— Will we see any separation among the top three receivers? Hand size, forty times, vertical jumps — all could be difference makers for Amari Cooper, Kevin White and Devante Parker. For me Cooper is the cream of the crop and could surprise a few people. He’s more athletic than he gets credit for.

— Yesterday we discussed how Maxx Williams won’t be judged on speed. He has a knack of making plays, he has exceptional character and he’s just a good football player. But if he can impress here with a great work out — and if he has above average length/hand size, it won’t hurt. If Coby Fleener can manage 27 reps on the bench press I’d like to see that from Williams. He doesn’t look particularly toned in the arms. Has he got natural strength? If he is going to run in the 4.8’s like Marcedes Lewis — a 37-inch vert would be a nice trade-off.

— How does Penn State tight end Jesse James perform at 6-7 and 245lbs? We’re all looking for a freak of nature TE. At that size it’s harsh to expect a remarkable workout. You can guarantee if we do see a special workout warrior at TE this year (we didn’t in 2014) he’ll be going earlier than he probably should. Every team is looking for the next Gronk/Graham. Of all the tight ends capable of making a statement — Wes Saxton at South Alabama might be the guy. He’s lighter (6-4, 235lbs) and that could help in the quickness drills. He looks good on the field.

— Which of the OT’s separate? Every year athletic linemen really boost their stock. It’s why Eric Fisher ultimately usurped Luke Joeckel as the #1 pick in 2013. It’s why Lane Johnson propelled himself into the top-five. D.J. Humphries at Florida has reportedly added 20lbs of weight. He’s long and smooth. If he can show mobility despite the extra size he could jump into the round one mix. T.J. Clemmings should also impress physically. Teams really focus on the athletic qualities here — much more so than they used to. Greg Robinson, Taylor Lewan and Joel Bitonio were all incredible athletes with consistently good physical traits and drill performances. It’s no surprise Lewan and Bitonio impressed in year one. With the best athletes in college playing on the D-line these days, agility on the O-line has become absolutely vital.

— Will Andrus Peat and Ereck Flowers perform as well in the kick-slide drill as I expect? Can they match it with the length and strength to cement their place in round one? Can Brandon Scherff and La’ell Collins convince teams they can play tackle? How will Ty Sambrailo do in the bench press? He needs to show strength to match his foot speed. Can Jake Fisher likewise show upper body power and maybe a little extra (good) weight? How athletic is Penn State’s Donovan Smith or Corey Robinson at South Carolina?

— Is Leonard Williams as good as advertised? I think he shows real flashes of quality and his production at USC is good. But I’m not sure he’s quite the player he’s been hyped up to be in the media. If he shows up here with a supreme workout — I’ll eat my words. Speaking of USC prospects — how does running back Buck Allen perform? He doesn’t flash eye-catching size, speed or power — but he cuts on a dime. He has a shot to break round two as a top-notch cut-and-run back.

— How big is Shane Ray? He’s listed by Missouri at 6-3 and 245lbs but he looks smaller on tape. If he’s 6-1 and lacks length, how does that impact his stock? Rest assured he’ll do well in every drill as an explosive pass rusher. But teams value length and size, especially if you’re going to play D-end in the 4-3.

— I’ve seen some tape complaints on Oklahoma nose tackle Jordan Phillips. You know who had lousy college tape? Dontari Poe. Then he ran a 4.98 and went in the top-12 picks in 2012. If Phillips can run a similar time — and if he passes all the medical checks on his back — don’t be shocked if he enjoys a similar rise.

— Arik Armstead appears to be a favorite within the various front offices, much more so than in the media during the 2014 college season. He’s listed at 6-8 and 290lbs. Let’s see how big he really is and whether he can put on a show at that kind of size. You want to believe he’s another Calais Campbell. And yet Campbell didn’t have an amazing combine — running a 5.04 in 2008, posting 16 reps on the bench press (long arms — problematic here) and a 29.5-inch vertical. He had a 1.69 ten-yard split. It’ll be interesting to compare.

— We’ve been waiting 18 months to see Vic Beasley run a forty yard dash. He’s small, light and lacks length. It’s all about the speed with Beasley. Can he get anywhere near Bruce Irvin’s numbers (size and speed)? He’s going to have to run in the 4.5’s at least — you’d hope for the 4.4’s if he’s in the 230-240lbs range. He needs a great ten yard split too. Given his shorter arms you’d like to see a not-hopeless performance on the bench press too to alleviate some of the strength concerns. Irvin had 23 reps.

— I don’t see any of Carl Davis, Preston Smith, Henry Anderson or Mario Edwards Jr going in the first round. But they get hyped up a lot, so let’s see how athletic they really are. Smith is the most intriguing with excellent size and length. I’m just not sure he’s a top-athlete. Datone Jones forced his way into round one with a 4.80 forty, 112-inch broad jump and an excellent 4.32 short shuttle. That’s the benchmark for guys like Smith and Edwards Jr. Davis is bigger and has to look good compared to Malcom Brown and Eddie Goldman — two former 5-star recruits. As well as he played at the Senior Bowl, Davis’ tape is rank average.

— The defensive tackle I’m most interested in watching here? Washington State’s Xavier Cooper. I watched my first batch of games last week and he was very, very impressive. A possible second or third rounder for me, but I want to watch more before making a firm judgement.

— Hau’oli Kikaha’s medical checks will be interesting. Is he 100% healthy? And how athletic (or not) is he? He has the production, he’s a great hands fighter and he just gets to the quarterback. But he’s going to need to prove he’s more than a good college player. I’m not overly optimistic. If he he’s healthy though, teams will take interest in his production.

— Alabama safety Landon Collins was touted as a SPARQ demon a couple of years ago. Here’s your chance to prove it, Landon. In an especially weak year for safety’s he could go very early.

— LSU cornerback Jalen Collins is one of my favorite players this year. I think he could be a top-15 pick. He has the size and length. We know that already. I think on tape he shows rare athletic qualities too (eg chasing down Melvin Gordon in the open field). Monday could be his day. Get ready because Collins is a stud in the making. Jonathan Joseph ran a 4.31 at 5-11 and 188lbs in 2006. I’ll stick my neck out and say Collins pushes the 4.3’s at 6-2 and 198lbs.

— In terms of later round corners, I really like Alex Carter, Steven Nelson and Damian Swann. Out of the three, I suspect only Swann ticks the required ‘length/size’ boxes for Seattle. Which other corners stand out athletically to be the next possible Sherman/Maxwell/Browner? It’ll be a fascinating watch on Monday. This is the position, more than any other, where you can look at a sheet of measurements and eliminate three quarters of the group and focus on certain size ideals.

— Is Quinten Rollins a safety or a corner? You can ask the same question about Utah’s Eric Rowe. They need to show nimble footwork, change of direction skills, initial quickness and explosion. Still, Richard Sherman didn’t have the greatest combine so it’s never worth ruling anything out.

Let me know what you’ll be looking out for in the comments section.

The current flavor of the month prospect is UCF’s Breshad Perriman. Mel Kiper had him going 15th overall to the 49ers in his latest mock draft, stating:

One of the bigger sleepers in the 2015 draft class at this point, Perriman is a player I’ve grown to really like as I’ve spent more time going through his tape. At one time I had him as a likely second-round pick, but now I see him as a close call in terms of overall ability next to the top few wide receivers in this class. He’s got size, and strength, and is going to run really fast at the combine and be a guy who can both stretch defenses vertically and also make plays over the middle and in traffic. He’s also got great bloodlines, as I scouted his father (Brett) when he played for Miami.

Today Gil Brandt tweeted his interest in Perriman, suggesting he could be a first round pick. Greg Cosell went a step further, comparing his “size and movement” to Julio Jones.

Here’s the issue with Perriman — and it’s a big one. Drops. At the end of the day, you can have all the size and speed in the world. If you’re not a reliable hands catcher, how high are you going to go in the draft? I mean, you better have some pretty serious athletic qualities to make up for the number of drops Perriman had in college. According to Steve Palazzolo he had seven drops from 54 catchable passes in 2014 — a drop percentage of nearly 13%. That’s just too high. Palazzolo clarified they don’t count drops on bad throws — these are basic passes that should’ve been hauled in.

As Lance Zierlein puts it, “His drops will drive teams crazy.”

A year ago another big, athletic receiver was getting similar attention. Cody Latimer didn’t work out at the combine due to injury — but at his pro-day he recorded a 39-inch vertical jump, a sub-4.4 forty, he benched 23 reps and looked the part at 6-3 and 215lbs. Physically he was quite the talent. Then you throw on the tape and he had excellent, secure hands — he could high point the football and he showed dedication as a blocker and special teams contributor.

Getting behind Latimer was easy and although he eventually settled into a second round slot (drafted by Denver) — the growing hype was understandable. Perriman might have similar physical tools but he’s nothing like the reliable pass-catcher Latimer proved to be in college. For that reason it’s hard to invest too much stock in a high first round grade.

The receiver position is more important than ever with teams throwing a ton and building around the passing game. For that reason I can see Perriman going earlier than Latimer — who had the misfortune of declaring in a freakishly loaded year at the position. If there’s an early rush (Cooper, White, Parker) — teams might start reaching. Let’s say all three are gone before Kansas City is on the clock at #18. Can they afford to wait until round two, praying a receiver is there that they like? Possibly not. A small reach in the first round can be forgiven. I’m not sure missing out altogether will be in KC. What about San Francisco at #15? You have Cleveland at #19 (receiver is a BIG need for the Browns), Carolina at #25 (still need more), Seattle at #31 and New England at #32. So you can imagine a situation where someone like Perriman gets vaulted up the board.

The two videos below are both positive examples of his game. There are two drops combined, but also some pretty eye-catching grabs where he shows good catching technique. The quarterback situation post-Blake Bortles wasn’t great at UCF and you see a real lack of accuracy at times — throws behind or just off target. That’s no excuse for the big missed opportunity against ECU (1:43 in the second video), where he just straight drops a perfect throw and takes a touchdown off the board.

Ultimately I think Perriman will be a second or third round pick. It won’t be a shock if he goes earlier, but it’s hard to bang the table for him in Seattle unless you convince yourself he can get over the drops and make big improvements in that area.

Meanwhile…

Mike Mayock revealed his first set of positional rankings this week. His top five at receiver reads: White, Cooper, Parker, Green-Beckham and Funchess.

Devin Funchess is a tough player to work out. He has great size and knows how to get open. At times he flashes good catching technique and he can box off defenders to make plays downfield and in the red zone. But there’s just something about him that makes you want to hold back.

If there’s one thing the Seahawks would probably like to add to this offense, it’s a hulking tight end/receiver mismatch that can work the seam, provide a safety net and just win with sheer size/speed. That rare player who draws a linebacker in coverage and just dominates (see: Gronk vs K.J. Wright).

It’s so difficult to judge these types of prospect. The Detroit Lions chose Eric Ebron with the #10 pick a year ago ahead of Odell Beckham Jr. Think about that for a moment. Detroit could have Megatron, Golden Tate and ODB. Instead they get Ebron — an athletic, mobile (and ultimately disappointing) tight end. Hey, he’s only a rookie. Time is on his side. But so far he looks like the next Jermaine Gresham or Brandon Pettigrew. Flashes in college but isn’t so special at the next level. The recent history of big WR/TE types taken in the first round is pretty sketchy.

Rob Gronkowski was a second rounder mainly due to injury problems (back). Look where Jimmy Graham, Jordan Cameron and Julius Thomas were taken. Or Antonio Gates for that matter. You almost need to search for the diamond in the rough. I think Seattle accepted that when they took Luke Willson in 2013. Look for the size, speed and potential — not so much the tape or production. That’s not to say the next big WR/TE drafted in the first round can’t succeed. That’s why you keep searching.

So you look at Funchess and you need to decide whether you can live with the flaws and accentuate the positives. Some teams will be all over the opportunity to work with a prospect with this skill set, others will feel very differently.

Here’s what Bob McGinn’s anonymous sources within the league said about him:

“He’s not unlike Jared Cook, who’s with the Rams,” one scout said. “Pretty talented kid. Will he be your split-out tight end-H-back or a bigger wideout? I lean more toward the mismatch at tight end. He’s going to be kind of a hybrid player.”

Here’s what I think teams will like:

He shows good footwork and quickness for a big target and finds ways to get open. Considering he’s listed at 6-5 and 230lbs, this is impressive. Fast forward to 0:41 in the video below:

Look at the replay from this touchdown play. That is just a perfectly executed double move — selling the safety with a wonderful head-nod to the right before cutting inside. He’s wide open in the end zone. Quick feet, understanding how to sell a fake. This is textbook coaching and execution. Having watched four 2014 games now, this isn’t the only example of Funchess using his head to sell a fake. He has ways to get open and doesn’t rely on speed.

Here he is battling possible first round pick Trae Waynes (CB, Michigan State) (all Vine’s in this thread courtesy of @JoeGoodberry — a recommended follow).

He doesn’t make the catch in the end, but look how he works to get open against a top-cornerback prospect. He darts to the outside before cutting inside. It’s not elite suddenness by any stretch, but he knows how to set the defender one way before working to the left. He’s fighting there and it’s a great effort. It’s a poor throw by the quarterback, but he still lays out to try and make the grab.

For the most part he high-points the football nicely and plucks it out of the air. He does flash solid catching technique (cupping the hands together, snagging it). He has the size to box off a defender and gain position — and it’s hard to overthrow him. Take a look:

There’s a further example in the video below at 0:33:

Watching the replays from the play in the video above, there’s never any doubt this was going to be a catch despite the 50-50 element of the deep throw. The cornerback can’t get around his big frame to play the ball. It’s exactly what Seattle has lacked for so long — a receiver or tight end who just wins through sheer size. Throw it up and go let him make a play. All Funchess has to do here is run the route, locate the football and the rest is history. He has position, he boxes off the defender. He makes it look easy.

He has a big catching radius due to his height and length. Russell Wilson has had issues with overthrows — it might just be part of an overly-conservative offense that preaches ball control and turnover differential. With Funchess you can deliberately overthrow and he’ll still go up and make a play.

Need someone to run the seam and make a difficult catch? He can do that too. Fast forward to 3:39 in the video below:

Despite the presence of four defenders, Funchess finds the soft spot. It’s another bad throw behind the receiver — but he still makes a tough catch under pressure. You can line him up anywhere — as a tight end, in the slot, out wide. You’d want to get him working against linebackers if possible but he can also work over nickel corners. In the red zone he can be effective too and he even showed some potential on screens and quick hitters. He’s not a big YAC guy obviously, but he can get you five yards on a shooter to the outside.

So what about the things that aren’t so appealing?

His whole career at Michigan just felt so underwhelming. Granted, he always played in a disappointing passing offense. The Wolverines were truly awful in 2014 and as the offense imploded, Funchess disappeared. You look at a player like Kelvin Benjamin and despite some of the mental lapses and bad drops at Florida State — he still had some beastly performances and big production. Would Funchess put up the big stats with Jameis Winston throwing the darts? Maybe. But he never took over a game like Benjamin at FSU and never played with the same level of intensity.

He’s very much a build-up speed receiver. When he gets moving he can accelerate and kick up a gear — but while his short-area quickness and footwork is impressive, he’s not quick to get into his breaks and he won’t separate on a go or post route.

Can he act as a conventional tight end? Perhaps most worrying for the Seahawks is he’s a terrible in-line blocker and shows little interest in the open-field to finish a block. You want to see more attitude here. You want him to line up at tight end because this is where he’ll really hurt teams — working the mismatch at the second level and down the seam. If he can’t execute the blocking duties can you even consider him at TE? You can take some of the pressure off by playing him in the slot (a lot of move-TE’s line up in the slot these days) — but he doesn’t have the short area quickness to stay there full time.

He lurches between circus-catcher and frustrating dropper. The stat sheet shows 20 drops in three seasons. He will make plenty of head-scratching decisions. There are also times where his effort, not just in blocking, is really sloppy.

Look at the interception at 4:03 below:

What is he doing here? It’s a half-baked attempt at a one-handed catch that ends up costing his team a turnover. It’s this kind of maddening play that turns you off Funchess. You know he’s capable of so much more — so what’s going through his mind as that ball leaves the quarterbacks hand?

There aren’t many human beings that can do what Devin Funchess can do and in many ways the positives outweigh the negatives. I can see why he gets a lot of first round attention and if the Seahawks want a big target who can make chunk plays and win over the middle — this is an option. But there are so many frustrating aspects to his game too. Will he be quite as effective downfield against faster DB’s? Will he dominate smaller opponents and continue to make tough grabs? Can he be a next-level dynamo in a way he never was in college — instead of another underwhelming move-TE like Jermaine Gresham (a superior athlete)? Does he have the potential to dominate like a Gronk or Graham and take over games — or is he going to be a 5-week-a-season wonder? McGinn’s scout says Jared Cook. Another player who promises so much but flatters to deceive.

His ability to get open with head movement and effort keeps me intrigued — even though I’m not convinced the Seahawks will think about drafting him early. The combine will be big for Funchess. If he shows difference making physical traits even if the forty isn’t great — he could be a big riser. But the only real reason I think Seattle would consider him is the size factor. If they can’t land a veteran receiver and if they don’t acquire a big move-TE like Jordan Cameron, Julius Thomas or Jermaine Gresham — Funchess can fill that role. There is a ‘Big Mike Williams’ vibe to his game. But the lack of blocking talent, the question marks about his ability to line up consistently at tight end and the boom-or-bust nature of his play might be a turn-off for a team that loves suddenness and grit.

Elsewhere today…

Mel Kiper has put together a new mock draft, with the Seahawks taking Miami receiver Phillip Dorsett at #31.

Kiper: “Dorsett would offer Seattle something they simply don’t have on the roster right now, which is a player who can consistently create space with quickness in the passing game. The Seahawks are simply far too reliant on Russell Wilson’s ability to extend plays and allow wide receivers time to get open, and Dorsett is a Porsche in terms of acceleration and the ability to start fast and stop quickly.”

There are seven first round receivers in Kiper’s mock including Breshad Perriman (UCF) at #15 to San Francisco. Depending on what happens in free agency, the Seahawks might feel obliged to reach a little bit on a wide-out at #31 (especially if they see five already off the board when they’re on the clock). We saw it with Justin Britt a year ago — are you prepared to miss out altogether if you wait until #63 and nine or ten receivers are gone? That’s why it’s important to consider other projections. Whether you think seven first round wide outs is likely or not, Kiper has brought an interesting talking point to the discussion.

I like Dorsett — he has genuine speed and suddenness and should run the best forty time at the combine. He uses a second gear to separate and he can beat you downfield. Whether the Seahawks are looking for this type of receiver is another question. In Kiper’s projection they would have alternative options in the form of Funchess or Jaelen Strong if they wanted to go big. If they were willing to wait on a receiver, Eli Harold and Todd Gurley are both available.

Charles Davis has also published his first mock draft on NFL.com. He has the Seahawks taking Oklahoma defensive tackle Jordan Phillips. He’s a beast — the nearest thing to Dontari Poe in the last couple of years. For that reason I expect he’ll go early, assuming he passes the medical checks (he’s had back problems — a concern).

Lance Zierlein has put together a list of the fastest players expected to impress at the combine. SDB favorite Jalen Collins is named here. A source is quoted as saying he could run a 4.4. If that happens — he should be a top-20 pick. The guy has so much potential.

In the next few days I plan to do a piece on USC’s Nelson Agholor. In many ways he is Seahawky. Plays above his size, good catching technique, knows how to separate, some initial suddenness, established punt returner, good character. He’s not a big target by any means, but among the receiver options Seattle might consider early — he’s worth monitoring. And he can dunk:

I re-ran the SUH scenario for 2016- it actually CAN be done with keeping Irvin and not robbing from Offense- not saying it will happen…

— DAVIS HSU (@DavisHsuSeattle) February 9, 2015

@robstaton yes

— DAVIS HSU (@DavisHsuSeattle) February 10, 2015

According to this article by Omar Kelly, the Seahawks can look forward to $25m in free cap space this off-season. It’s certainly enough to do whatever they want with their current in-house crew. Russell Wilson will get a new deal. They can afford to give Marshawn Lynch a pay-rise. They can talk contract with Bobby Wagner and J.R. Sweezy. The cost to keep Byron Maxwell probably outweighs his actual value — but you can’t expect to keep everyone.

The idea that on top of all of this you can add a genuine superstar like Ndamukong Suh is, frankly, a little dirty. Yet according to Davis Hsu in the Tweets above — it’s not the pipe dream we perhaps first imagined. You’d have to make cuts elsewhere. But Hsu has calculated you would be able to keep Brandon Mebane in 2015. Presumably it would mean cutting ties with Zach Miller and Tony McDaniel to raise an additional $6m. That seems like an acceptable trade-off.

You could do Suh- even if he was $9M Year 1 (could skip FA TE)- using $130M cap for O/D pic.twitter.com/ZCxD1CG4mf

— DAVIS HSU (@DavisHsuSeattle) February 10, 2015

The problems emerge in 2016 and beyond. You’d be under intense pressure to draft well to fill holes. You’d be tight against the cap for a few seasons. Your depth could take a hit. That’s why Hsu offered this note of caution:

I pretty much agree with Corry- SUH possible but not probable & would hurt your depth too much in 2016…

— DAVIS HSU (@DavisHsuSeattle) February 10, 2015

But this is Seattle’s Championship window. And it’s not often you get the chance to consider adding a player of Suh’s quality.

This would be the ultimate power move — and also the kind of swing-for-the-fences job this front office had been willing to undertake. Acquiring Sidney Rice in 2011 was seen as a coup at the time. Ditto Zach Miller. The blockbuster trade for Percy Harvin left the league gasping for air. When there’s a big move to be made, the Carroll/Schneider regime have often been bold enough to make it.

As Brian Nemhauser opines in this well put together piece:

“It is extremely rare to have a chance to add a franchise level defensive tackle. Suh is the most unique talent on the market, and happens to address an area the Seahawks have not done a good job of filling via the draft. Spending the money here would make the draft highly focused on offensive options, and that might be the right move anyway.”

Nemhauser is right. The Seahawks haven’t done a good job adding defensive line talent in the draft. They relied on Chris Clemons (via trade) to provide a pass rush for three years. They inherited Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant. Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril were free agent acquisitions. They moved Bruce Irvin to linebacker. The only moderate success story so far is Jordan Hill — and he provided several weeks of dynamic interior rush before a season-ending injury.

Instead of worrying about life after Mebane or the lack of inside pressure (never more obvious than in the Super Bowl) — here’s your opportunity to land one of this generations top defensive talents. A legitimate star to rival the Gerald McCoy’s and J.J. Watt’s out there. A chance to put a disruptive, stone-walling force of nature alongside Avril, Bennett, Irvin, Mebane and Hill. An opportunity to make your linebackers and secondary even more threatening.

The Seahawks, according to Hsu, can offer the kind of $15m average-per-year salary Suh would command — and still keep most of their existing team together.

And better yet — if you believe Jason Cole’s recent report — the guy actually wants to play in Seattle. “This is his number one choice — because Suh is from the northwest area, grew up in Portland, he’d like to be there.”

Sure, there’s every chance they’d be outbid and this will amount to nothing more than a talking point designed to help us all move on from that interception. But look at the other teams with more cap room than Seattle according to Kelly: Jacksonville, Oakland, Cleveland, Tennessee, the New York Jets. A who’s who of the NFL’s bottom-dwellers. Suh can be rich and a possible Champion or even richer and go through the motions until the end of his career. After all, he’s 28-years-old now. This contract could be his last. Will four or five years in Cleveland or Oakland provide the ideal final course to a brilliant starter and main?

How about a few years in your native Pacific North West fighting for Championships and maybe even winning a couple?

The move is so tantalizingly attractive you almost have to save yourself from getting sucked in. Suh in Seattle. Imagine it. With Sherman, Thomas, Bennett, Chancellor, Wagner and Avril (his former team mate in Detroit). A collection of talent for the ages. And yet we’re still a month away from the start of free agency. Lions ownership recently expressed some confidence they’d be able to re-sign Suh, with team President Tom Lewand stating: “I think there’s a very, very good chance that we can get something done with him in the next few weeks.” That’s unusually chipper considering everyone expects he’ll be leaving Detroit (they have $15m in cap space to play with).

So what would it mean if they did make a blockbuster move like this? Ultimately, get ready for an almost exclusively offensive-based draft.

They’d have to find a way to replace Byron Maxwell. Even if that was an internal move (Tharold Simon for example) they’d need to add a corner at some stage. There’s nothing stopping them adding a prospect like LSU’s Jalen Collins in round one — a scary proposition for anyone facing the Seahawks defense in 2015. But at some point they’d have to turn it over to the offense. Adding another ‘Seahawks-style’ corner in the mid-to-late rounds is likely, especially if you’re fielding a front four that includes a force like Suh.

That would enable them to focus on drafting for the offense. Receiver would be an early priority. They’d have to look at replacements for Zach Miller at tight end and James Carpenter (potentially) at guard. But this wouldn’t be a problem. The bulk of your offensive line would remain intact. You’d still have Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. You’d still have the receivers and tight ends you had for the bulk of the 2014 season. You’d simply be adding more talent to that group.

Pick your poison. Want to add the high-pointing skills of Jaelen Strong at #31? Want to bring in a hulking seam-busting move-TE like Devin Funchess? Want to go after rare athleticism (Sammie Coates), speed (Phillip Dorsett), chunk plays (Devin Smith) or all-round solidity (Maxx Williams)? You can bring in Ty Sambrailo to play guard if you like. You have all of those options. You are only adding talent. And all the while you look across at that defense…

For all the discussion we’ve had about adding a veteran presence to the receiver’s meeting room and bolstering the weapons for Russell Wilson — nobody would match the impact of Suh in Seattle. Landing him still seems so unlikely and yet so thoroughly attractive. And as Nemhauser points out in his piece on the subject — an offensive-focused draft wouldn’t be such a bad thing anyway.

A year ago, the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos were beaten and bruised and trying to plot a way back to the Super Bowl. They’d come close, but not close enough. It was time to make a move.

The Broncos aggressively pursued the free agent market — landing Aqib Talib to fill a hole at corner, T.J. Ward to feature at safety and Emmanuel Sanders to replace the departing Eric Decker. The Patriots — having lost Talib to Denver — went big on the cornerback position. They brought in Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner.

How much of this was down to a rapidly closing window? It had to play a part. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are pushing 40. The opportunity to win a title isn’t going to get any easier with every passing year. We’ve seen how quickly it can diminish in the case of Manning. But this was also about making the necessary moves to close the gap and eventually cross the line. In the case of the Patriots — it worked. The impact of Revis and Browner cannot be underestimated. One perfectly executed jam at the LOS by Browner was worth every penny of his $2.715m cap hit.

When you get so close the urge to be aggressive eats away at you. “What can we do to make sure this doesn’t happen again?” Nobody will ever get closer to a Super Bowl Championship than the 2014 Seahawks. And now they’re faced with a similar conundrum. What are they going to do at wide receiver (or tight end?) — and how aggressive do they want to be?

It’s the biggest need on two levels. For starters, it’s a pure numbers game. Jermaine Kearse is a restricted free agent. Doug Baldwin, Kevin Norwood and Chris Matthews are under contract. Paul Richardson might be set for a Navarro Bowman style ‘red shirt’ year. Ricardo Lockette is an exclusive rights free agent. Basically, you need another receiver. Secondly — you just need to get better here. Never was that more obvious than the decision to target Lockette on the decisive play to try and win a Super Bowl. You can’t lose Golden Tate, Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin and expect to be OK in the talent department.

This isn’t about throwing the ball more or diverting from a run-first identity. It’s about making the most out of the times you do throw. Nearly all of Seattle’s 2013 and 2014 defeats carried a similar theme — man coverage in the secondary and receivers not getting open, with a stacked box attacking the offensive line to pressure Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. The Seahawks are crying out for a receiver who warrants considered attention even within a run-based offense. Or at least a guy who can make plays when he’s covered.

The front office identified this need when they were trying to shop Harvin during the season. They tried to deal him for Juluis Thomas, Jordan Cameron or Coby Fleener. They later had talks with Tampa Bay over Vincent Jackson — the Buccs were interested in a trade, but wanted too much.

Ever since Pete Carroll arrived in Seattle they’ve been searching for an X-Factor. In 2010 they talked to Brandon Marshall and considered a move for Jackson. In 2011 they went big to sign Rice and Zach Miller. By 2013 they pulled off the big trade for Harvin. Now they face re-opening the search. They have to keep looking.

A dynamic receiver or tight end who demands attention and game-planning is crucial to take this offense to the next level. It’ll take some of the up-front pressure away from Wilson and the O-line if it forces teams into more considered coverage looks — it’ll also help open up the running game. The big shots Wilson took in the Super Bowl to Matthews? Wouldn’t it be great if they had a receiver who could do that on a regular basis? And that’s not to say Matthews won’t be able to — but we only have one game’s evidence from a player who turns 26 in October. It’s also one thing to exploit Kyle Arrington — Matthews had less success going up against Browner.

There are other ways this team can be ‘aggressive’ of course. People will argue about bolstering the offensive line — although I’m not sure how you’re going to do that in free agency. I’d also argue the replacement of James Carpenter with a first round pick in this class will have a marginal overall impact on the offense. The conversation this week has focused on Ndamukong Suh. It’s not impossible but would take a major clear-out (Mebane, McDaniel, Miller) to stand any chance. It would also create problems down the line if you want to re-sign some of your home-grown stars. It’s more likely he signs a +$100m contract elsewhere.

Eventually you come back to WR/TE as the most likely focus. This is an aggressive front office. They will go after key needs. In 2011 they made it clear improving the league worst rushing offense was the key — so they draft James Carpenter and John Moffitt and sign Robert Gallery. They wanted better targets so landed Rice and Miller. In 2012 they said they wanted speed in the front seven so they go out and draft Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner. A year later they make a splash for Harvin and also sign Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril.

The only off-season where they haven’t been overly active was 2014 — weeks after they won the Super Bowl. This is not a front office that has ever stood still or been complacent with a need.

So how do they approach the WR/TE situation?

1. Wouldn’t it be great if Russell Wilson had a target he can grow with? Someone with a similar attitude and love for the game. Someone who wants to create a chemistry comparable to Romo/Bryant or Brady/Gronk. Someone who won’t question the quarterback, someone who won’t be divisive in the locker room. Wilson’s guy.

2. How badly do they need a veteran presence in that wide receiver room? While drafting a receiver to work with Wilson is preferable — Doug Baldwin’s recent antics hint at a position group that is crying out for a leader. Finding a proven receiver is also the best way to deliver an instant impact. You won’t have to go through the inevitable rookie growing pains — although Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr, Kelvin Benjamin and several others showed it’s possible to succeed early in your career.

Spending a high draft pick on a receiver would be the cost effective way of dealing with this situation — and that might be necessary with so many looming contract to renew. But they do have $23m in cap space according to Spotrac and that will only increase if they cut Zach Miller ($3m saving), Tony McDaniel ($3m saving) or Brandon Mebane ($5.5m saving). Ideally you’d keep Mebane, but they’ll have to judge how serious his hamstring injury is. Essentially you could lose Miller and McDaniel and put $6m towards a free agent receiver or tight end. Of course, you also make a $7m saving if Marshawn Lynch departs.

Let’s look at some of the possibilities:

Free agency

The two names that stand out are Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas. There’s almost no chance Bryant reaches the open market — Jerry Jones would cut half his team if it means they keep Dez. Thomas is also unlikely to make it out of Denver considering the Broncos have $26.6m in cap space to play with.

After that the options aren’t great. Nobody should expect the Seahawks to sign Michael Crabtree. Jeremy Maclin isn’t getting out of Philadelphia. Randall Cobb probably has no interest in leaving Green Bay — plus they can easily re-sign him with $24m in cap space.

The best option might be Torrey Smith (Baltimore has only $3m to play with at the moment). He’s a frustrating player who flirts with genuine brilliance and then disappears for several weeks. It’s hard to determine how much he can expect to receive on the open market.

Even if the big names reached free agency — the Seahawks are unlikely to be an appealing option. The passing game takes a back seat and you might only get 3-4 targets in a game. They will be able to offer the opportunity to play for a contender, but you’d expect they’d have to overpay to seal the deal. And they don’t have the cash to overpay.

The tight end position might provide some relief here. Jordan Cameron reportedly wants out in Cleveland while the Broncos might struggle to pay Demaryius and Julius Thomas (particularly with an extension looming for Von Miller). Jermaine Gresham will almost certainly test free agency. For $6-8m (the price of Miller and McDaniel) you might be able to lure Thomas or Cameron to Seattle. When healthy, both players offer genuine dynamism over the middle and in the red zone. But both players carry significant health risks. Last year you could franchise tag a tight end for $7.035m. Cleveland and Denver could go down that route.

Veteran cuts

There are mixed reports on whether Brandon Marshall will be cut in Chicago. Some people are suggesting it’s a done deal while others believe he will stay with the Bears. They have enough cap room to keep him ($23m) and still improve a terrible defense.

Marshall is a fierce competitor and the type of receiver Seattle lacks. But he can also be a divisive figure. This piece by Rick Morrissey from the Chicago Sun-Times sums up some of the feeling he’s generated over the last 12 months. Is he capable of being the calming force in the receiver’s meeting room? Can he lead by example? Will he take pressure away from Russell Wilson instead of creating more drama for the young quarterback?

Larry Fitzgerald would be the ideal addition. His cap hit in 2015 is a remarkable $23.6m and it never dips lower than $17.35m between now and the end of the 2018 season. There’s very little room for Arizona to re-work this deal and as things stand they’re $8.6m OVER the salary cap for 2015. They have to make savings somewhere — and this might be a difficult, painful and inevitable decision.

If Fitzgerald enters the market, nearly every team in the league will want to meet with him. Even in his 32nd year he’s still a remarkable physical talent. He’s definitely one of the hardest working players in the league. As his role in the Arizona offense shockingly diminished — he didn’t complain. He is the definition of a model pro.

The Seahawks need someone like Fitzgerald to lead their group of young receivers, rally behind Wilson at quarterback and be a go-to target for the next 2-3 years. Would he make the move? After a few frustrating years with the Cardinals, will he seek out a high-octane passing offense? As a fiercely loyal player would he dare join a bitter division rival in the midst of a Championship window? Are there teams out there who can pay him a lot more money? How much will he be motivated by chasing a ring?

The Minnesota Vikings make a great deal of sense with their $18m cap room and need for a receiver like this. He can return home, leave the NFC West and move on. The Seahawks would surely have interest in Fitzgerald if he reaches the open market. He’s the ideal option. But would he be able to stomach competing for one of Arizona’s division rivals?

Trades

I doubt the Seahawks would consider another blockbuster trade, but a modest deal for the right receiver seems possible. One option stands out and that’s Vincent Jackson. The Buccaneers fielded calls for V-Jax during the season and Seattle were one of the teams to show interest. Will their demands lower this off-season? It’s hard to say.

Tampa Bay will select a quarterback with the #1 pick and there’s every chance that rookie will start this year. It’d make sense to let him throw to Mike Evans, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Jackson as he eases into the pro-game. But did Evans’ brilliant rookie season make Jackson expendable? The Buccs had a fire sale before the trade deadline as they re-shaped the roster. If they want to get younger, dealing V-Jax for a mid-round pick makes sense — even with $23m in free cap space.

The big issue is Jackson’s contract. Whoever deals for him will want to re-work his salary. He’s 32 and set to earn $12.2m in 2015 and 2016. That’s too much. To force a trade and play for a contender, you’d have to expect he’d be open to a deal. The Buccs might just cut him and save $8m — he has to know that is possible.

For two or three years Jackson could be a really effective weapon for a team. He can still get downfield, he goes up and makes plays and he’s a big time red zone option. If you can get his salary down — he’d be a key addition.

The draft

There’s another reason why I think this could end up being the most likely solution. We’ve spent a lot of time discussing the value to be had at corner (Jalen Collins), defensive end (Eli Harold), running back (Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon) and other positions. But over the years the Seahawks haven’t been afraid to reach to fill needs. I actually really liked James Carpenter and Bruce Irvin in college (physical brilliance + production). But both picks were cited as reaches. The Seahawks didn’t really care.

Even last year — Justin Britt in round two was a clear reach. But they knew, without a third round pick, it was now or never to get a right tackle they liked. There’s every chance the Seahawks will simply identify a receiver they like who will be available at #31 and take the guy. Address the situation and don’t look back. It’s what they’ve done before.

What if a lot of the other appealing options are gone? Let’s say they like the guys we’ve talked about — Collins, Harold, Gurley and others. They could all be gone by #31 anyway.

Personally I’d rather acquire one of the veterans above and hunt for a younger receiver later on. The value appears to be much stronger in rounds 2-4 this year (Agholor, Lockett, Dorsett, Hardy, Mayle). You could argue there’s only three receivers worthy of going in the first round (Cooper, Parker, White). But if your hand is forced? Who are we talking about?

I’m not crazy about Devin Funchess — a huge target who should be better than he is. He’d offer everything the Seahawks lack in terms of size. He could split out wide, play move-TE. He should dominate over the seam. But he’s just so underwhelming. I can’t imagine him playing for the Seahawks. Not within this group. Sammie Coates has T.O. size, fantastic athleticism and muscle tone. He’s strong. He has a good character. But the inconsistency he flashes is beyond frustrating. Would they take a chance on potential? Maybe. I wouldn’t be shocked. But you’d be taking a big risk on a prospect with so many flaws in his catching technique.

I’m a big Devin Smith fan and I don’t buy all the snobbery over his downfield production vs conventional routes. The guy makes chunk plays and that’s not always easy. He high points the football. He makes circus catches look easy. He flashes a bit of DeSean Jackson, a bit of OBJ. You can work on the shorter routes. If he was brilliant working over the middle on slants he’d be going in the top-15. It’s like critiquing any player who goes late first vs early first. You can’t expect the finished product in that range. But is another smaller, sudden athlete the answer for Seattle’s offense? After watching Matthews in the Super Bowl — do they need to go bigger?

We’ve talked enough about Dorial Green-Beckham to avoid going over old ground. Teams will do their homework. I think there’s more to the situation in Missouri than a couple of run-ins with the law and that’s that. We’ll see. He has all the talent in the world but if he’s still there at #31 that speaks volumes.

And that brings us to Jaelen Strong. Not a player I’m all that fond of. He’s a bit of a plodder in terms of speed. He lacks suddenness getting into his breaks. He struggles to separate on short or long routes and every catch seems to be contested. Yet he is adept at high pointing the ball, making spectacular grabs and you can’t fault his production (2287 yards, 17 TD’s in two seasons). I like his character — modest, mature, well spoken. He could mesh with Wilson. He’s not my favorite player in the draft — but he might end up being Seattle’s.

I don’t currently see a tight end worthy of going at #31. Maxx Williams is a really solid prospect who does everything well — but he doesn’t have difference making size or speed. I think he’ll end up being a good pro — but it’s hard to imagine he’ll offer a passing game the kind of jolt Seattle is looking for. I think he’ll be a second round pick.

The Seahawks are going to address receiver and/or tight end with some gusto — I’m sure of that. We could see a Cameron or Thomas arrive in free agency, with the #31 pick going on the best receiver available. It might be an even bigger splash — trading up for example, or making a deal with Larry Fitzgerald. Either way, this seems like the position to focus on the most heading into free agency next month. And from there, we’ll have a better idea on what they intend to do in the draft.

Todd McShay published his second 2015 mock draft today and had the Seahawks taking Todd Gurley (RB, Georgia) with the #31 pick. Here’s the blurb:

It’s been rumored recently that the Seahawks could sign Marshawn Lynch to a long-term deal this offseason (he’s entering the final year of his contract), but I’ll believe that when I see it. If Lynch isn’t with Seattle beyond the 2015 season, Gurley is a perfect replacement. He was a top-15 talent in this class prior to tearing his ACL this season, a powerful downhill runner who also has excellent speed — the best NFL comparison I can come up with for Gurley is Lynch. The Seahawks would have to be comfortable with his health situation, but he could be an ideal successor to Lynch. They could also look to address offensive or defensive line here.

McShay is clearly skeptical about Seattle’s ability (or desire) to extend Marshawn Lynch’s contract, but this isn’t a pick made to immediately replace Beast Mode. He says “if Lynch isn’t with Seattle beyond the 2015 season” — so he’s making this move with Lynch finishing out his contract.

I don’t know. Given the volatility of the situation the idea of paying Lynch or even just keeping him for 2015 and then drafting a running back in the first round kind of feels like you’re asking for trouble. Can you imagine the reaction? You can see the headlines now — Seattle plots to replace Lynch.

At the same time, Gurley might need a redshirt year as he battles back from a torn ACL. I can’t think of a better player to replace Lynch long term. You’d sure need some man-management skills to get the team to buy into this. But heck, it’s the Seattle Seahawks not the Seattle Marshawn Lynch’s. Consider this too — as much as this team clearly appreciates Robert Turbin and he’s Russell Wilson’s BFF, can you begin to imagine a backfield next year with Lynch and Gurley? That’s scary.

Another point. How many people right now are talking about Seattle’s redundant kick return game? Gurley, even with his size, is a return specialist — scoring two touchdowns in his short Georgia career and having a third called back last season on a bad call. Even if you want to pace him in year one as a running back, he could offer an immediate impact on special teams (health permitting).

Quite frankly I’d be prepared to go through some of the strife because Gurley is a fantastic talent. I’ve no doubt he’d be a top-15 pick (maybe top ten) without the injury. He is that good. To get him at #31 knowing you had a really good post-Marshawn contingency plan is ideal. Let me refer you to this Lynch-related article by Mike Florio.

This quote stood out to me:

Lynch, who turns 29 in April, is definitely closer to the end of the road than the start of it. Unless the Seahawks can find a solid alternative to Lynch, they’ll be far closer to the end of their road as contenders than the start of it, too.

He’s kind of right, isn’t he? Russell Wilson’s great, but the Seahawks aren’t built like a lot of other teams. The run game is an afterthought for other clubs. Not in Seattle. Wilson, as good as he is, thrives on a situation where the run (via play action, read option etc) is such a threat he can work off it and exploit the commitment teams make up front. I don’t think we’ll ever see the Seahawks or Wilson at his most effective with a JAG running the ball. Maybe I’m wrong. But Lynch is to the Seahawks what Rob Gronkowski is to the Patriots. Replacing him will be the single toughest thing John Schneider has to do over the next few years. It’s probably why they’re even considering a substantial pay increase and contract extension. Delay the inevitable.

Gurley has the talent and punishing running style to be Beast Mode 2.0. They’re different players — Lynch is freakishly strong for a back without amazing size. Gurley is a big back with freakish speed. But the end product is still the same — they’ll beat you up.

It’d be really something to go down this road with so many other needs on the roster — but that’s why you have 10-11 picks and a free agency period. If they want a special player at #31 and a guy who jumps out — Gurley fits the bill.

Here are the other players available at #31 in McShay’s mock that were off the board in mine:

Jordan Phillips (DT, Okahoma)
Bendarick McKinney (LB, Mississippi State)
Cameron Erving (C, Florida State)
Hau’Oli Kikaha (DE, Washington)
Carl Davis (DT, Iowa)
Owamagbe Odighizuwa (DE, UCLA)

When I look at this list, there’s nobody I’d prefer to have over Gurley. McKinney isn’t needed as a hulking 3-4 inside backer, while Kikaha probably lacks the length/ten yard split to interest Seattle in round one. Erving can play multiple spots on the offensive line — but there’s some O-line depth in this draft. Davis and Phillips offer incredible size and in Phillips’ case — rare speed and athleticism. But he has an injury history (back) — as does Odighizuwa (hip).

In this scenario it’s hard to argue with McShay’s pick. And as long as you can create some degree of harmony within the locker room after essentially drafting Lynch’s replacement — it’d be a wise investment for the future.

Jalen Collins is really, really impressive

The more I watch of this guy the more I hope he’s even available for the Seahawks at #31. There are two defensive prospects I’d like to see reach the bottom of the first round — Eli Harold (DE, Virginia) and Jalen Collins (CB, LSU). By the combine I think both players might be considered top-20 picks.

McShay has Collins at #26 to Baltimore. I can see it. The more LSU tape you watch the more you convince yourself. He has the complete package. Length, deep speed, recovery speed, fluid change of direction, the ability to high point the ball, excellent form defending the run, he’s a good tackler. The only thing he lacks is game-experience and a bit of technical refinement. The idea of this team and this staff getting to work with Collins is salivating. Hey — I really like the potential of someone like Damian Swann at Georgia. I’d like to see what they could do with him as a later round option. But Collins has legitimate potential to be one of the games top corners. That’s how highly I rate him based on what I’ve seen so far. It doesn’t mean he’ll definitely get there, but he has a shot.

Right now there aren’t many players I’d rather have than Collins from this class. If I had to rank a list of top options it would include Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon — depending on what happens with Lynch. Harold and Collins would be on it too. That might be it for now heading into the combine.

A few thoughts on the situation at receiver

In listing key needs yesterday, I put receiver/tight end at #1 and for good reason. But the more I look at this situation the less convinced I am that the #31 pick is a good spot to take a receiver. McShay’s mock kind of proves that. Cooper, White, Parker, Smith and Green-Beckham are all gone. Even if the first three names are off the board, I’m not totally convinced they’d take DGB in the first or Smith for that matter.

It’s also a position that could probably use a veteran presence. A calming influence. Doug Baldwin’s ridiculous celebration and subsequent penalty in the Super Bowl smacked of immaturity. Since Sidney Rice departed who has been that leading experienced figure in the WR meeting room? Take Zach Miller out of the equation (potentially) and it’s a group desperate for some experience.

Ideally — and it won’t be easy — you add a veteran receiver or tight end who can act almost as a #1 target. It’s going to be hard but not impossible. For example, Davis Hsu today tweeted a way Seattle could acquire Jordan Cameron for $4m in 2015. It means cutting Miller (saving $3m) and not re-signing James Carpenter. You’re banking on Cameron avoiding further concussions and staying healthy. But you would be bringing in a genuine dynamic receiving threat and a legit red zone/seam target.

Offense w Jordan Cameron, No Miller, No Carp, No T-Jack pic.twitter.com/9T30snGMIN

— DAVIS HSU (@DavisHsuSeattle) February 5, 2015

I’m not sure you can bring in a Vincent Jackson or Larry Fitzgerald for the same kind of cost. In fact I think we all know it’s almost impossible. You’d have to make other savings or be creative. I’m not convinced Fitzgerald could stomach joining a division rival either, but he’d be the ideal character guy this team needs at the receiver position — plus the dynamic big target Wilson requires. Jackson isn’t quite the same leader, but he’s a brilliant downfield/seam threat even at this stage in his career.

If you can make an addition in free agency, you can shoot for value at receiver. Phillip Dorsett would provide game-changing speed on the outside and downfield, but could also act a kick returner. Tyler Lockett was superb at the Senior Bowl and is another good kick returner. Nelson Agholor has returned kicks at USC and is an underrated receiver in this class. These are players that could go in the second or third round range. Justin Hardy is another name to look out for at the combine — and of course Sammie Coates. Personally I also believe Jaelen Strong, Devin Funchess and Dorial Green-Beckham will be available on day two if you want to take a bigger receiver instead with no kick return qualities.

I don’t think you can go wrong with Dorsett, Lockett, Agholor or Hardy. Even Coates has an explosive, physical element you’d love to have — you just need to work on his consistency.

You can really upgrade the receiver/tight end positions without spending the first pick. There will be a sweet spot in rounds 2-3 here. I think you almost have to manipulate a way to bring in a veteran, before looking at day two of the draft. This free’s you up to potentially look at a Todd Gurley/Melvin Gordon/Jalen Collins/Eli Howard in round one.