Category: Front Page News (Page 36 of 367)

Week eight NFL draft Seahawks scouting notes

October 24, 2022 /

The draft is about projection

What can a player become? What are they facing in college that helps you project success at the next level?

These are fairly obvious points, right? Essentially the core of what the draft is.

Yet it feels like we on the outside are increasingly forgetting the basics.

Todd McShay was at the Mississippi State vs Alabama game on Saturday. He was asked about the top quarterbacks in the draft. He said his top two remained Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud but people in the league favoured Will Levis.

Tony Pauline has voiced a similar sentiment.

I respect McShay and Pauline greatly and this isn’t about pointing fingers at them. They’re far from the only ones sharing this opinion.

For me, though, it’s fairly obvious why the league feels the way it does about Levis.

He’s operating the Kyle Shanahan offense with offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello. Last year he had Liam Coen, who’s now Sean McVay’s right-hand-man. He utilises pro-concepts, is asked to make reads at the line of scrimmage and he needs to function like a NFL quarterback.

He plays for an unfancied team in the SEC without the perks of playing for one of the giants of college football. He has to play behind a horrible offensive line — meaning he faces weekly adversity. Just like in the NFL.

Levis also has outstanding athletic qualities (123.27 SPARQ score), he has ideal size and arm strength. He has all of the traits teams covet.

He can do this:

As a GM it’s very easy to turn to an owner, list those positives and explain why you’re going to invest their money in Will Levis to lead the franchise.

It doesn’t mean Levis will succeed. It just means when you consider what he can become, it’s not a stretch to imagine a Josh Allen or Justin Herbert-type projection. Levis is having a better college career than either Allen or Herbert and he has similar physical tools. Jim Nagy at the Senior Bowl made the comparison before the season began, so don’t just take my word for it.

Levis has transferable qualities and experience. That is why the league, reportedly, values him more than the others.

Let’s now look at two other quarterbacks. I get asked a fair bit about Mississippi State’s Will Rogers. He has no arm strength to speak of and he looks mightily like a system player from the air-raid offense. It’s very hard to project Rogers to the next level as a consequence. Again — it doesn’t mean he’s a guaranteed failure. Yet you have to follow the evidence to make the best judgement call. Very little about Rogers’ play suggests he has a NFL future.

Let’s take it a step further. Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker is the darling of the internet currently. That’s not a surprise. The Vols are playing incredibly well. They beat Alabama. They have an explosive, exciting offense.

I’ve seen some people suddenly projecting Hooker to round one.

I’ve watched all of Hooker’s 2022 games so far. Josh Heupel has done a tremendous job but we need to be honest about what’s happening. Heupel’s offense is a half-field attack filled with simple reads. It sets the table for the quarterback. Hooker’s experience within the scheme certainly brings everything together. But this is an offense that churns out production and we see a lot of this in college. Washington does something very similar, for example.

On top of this, Tennessee’s receiver group is absolutely loaded with talent and they have a potential high first round pick at right tackle in Darnell Wright — a player who shut down Will Anderson last week.

When you watch the tape closely — Hooker does indeed have some good throws (especially downfield) and he has a strong command of his brief. He can be streaky with his accuracy though, there are a lot of easy throws and I fear that when he’s not operating in a system that acts as a ‘cheat code’ for quarterbacks — and when he isn’t surrounded by the talent he is at Tennessee — he might be found out. Is he good enough to excel when the environment isn’t tailor made for success?

I wouldn’t rule it out. Far from it. But I think any of us talking about the draft have a duty to be honest about this and grade accordingly. You won’t know whether Hooker can handle a pro-system and pro-challenges until he’s in the building. If someone takes him early, it’ll be a massive role of the dice. And they’ll probably take him early based on faith rather than grade.

The truth is despite his 2022 success — he’s a far harder projection than Levis.

You might ask — why Levis over Stroud and Young then?

With Young it’s obvious. It’s easy for an internet pundit to dismiss any concerns over size. You’re not spending someone else’s money. Your job isn’t on the line if you get this decision wrong. There simply aren’t any 5-10, 185lbs quarterbacks with middling arm strength winning in the NFL.

Young has the natural talent, charisma and creativity to be the one who makes it work. That’s why he’ll still go in round one. Yet there’s a risk factor here. Again — the projection is difficult. The transferable qualities are not as clear.

Stroud is like Hooker with a glow-up. He’s surrounded by four and five star recruits. The offense holds his hand for him. He can produce moments of absolute majesty. His arm strength, accuracy and touch — at times — has to be seen to be believed. Yet when the sideline tells him to throw somewhere — you better believe he’ll throw it.

Numerous times this year his intended target has been smothered like the screen-shot below and he’s thrown the ball anyway, leading to a turnover:

He will go in the top-three picks because the talent and upside is through the roof. Yet the projection is far harder than Levis. He won’t be playing on a star-studded offense in the NFL, with his reads made for him on the sideline, with first round picks getting open and making insane plays every week at receiver. He’ll need to operate the kind of pro-offense Levis is already showing he’s capable of. It’s why the Kentucky quarterback should be viewed as the favourite to go first overall.

If the Seahawks plan to take a quarterback early — and they currently have the #6 pick thanks to Denver — I still think Anthony Richardson (if he declares) could be an option. The Seahawks love tools, upside and special qualities. Richardson is far from the finished article and needs time and development. Yet as I’ve said a lot — his upside/projection is superstar level. It remains an enticing thought to retain Geno Smith and then draft and redshirt Richardson for a year or two.

Stop getting defensive tackles wrong!

Most mocks and articles have Bryan Bresee or Jalen Carter as the top defensive tackle. Let’s get one thing straight — Mazi Smith is the best eligible defensive tackle for 2023.

Bresee has been in-and-out of the Clemson line-up due to a personal tragedy and injury, while Carter has been missing games also with an injury. Smith plays every game. He doesn’t get the media hype because he only has 0.5 sacks for the season. Yet when you watch Michigan tape — he is constantly creating interior pressure and disrupting opponents.

With respect to Bresee and Carter — so far they haven’t come close to making the same kind of impact when they’re on the field.

Further to that, Smith will be a physical phenomena when he tests at the combine after topping Bruce Feldman’s freaks list for 2022.

The media has a tendency to latch-on to players and stick with them. We see it every year. One name that springs to mind is A.J. Epenesa before the 2020 draft. Frequently touted as a top-10 pick — nothing on tape suggested he warranted that type of grade. He lasted until pick #54. That was the range he was always destined to go in.

I think we’re seeing something similar now. Bresee and Carter are both athletic, talented players. They appear more likely destined to go in the second half of round one in a typical draft year. Maybe they get bumped up due to the lack of alternative options?

Mazi Smith is the real deal, however. He is the one with the size and freakish athletic potential — plus the consistent impact on the field — to talk up as a high pick.

Clemson defenders impress

Having said all of that — I thought Bresee had a much more impactful game against Syracuse. Hopefully he’s working into some form — although he was upstaged by his defensive team mates.

K.J. Henry is wildly underrated and was again bright and disruptive off the edge. His best football should come at the next level. He’s a truly dynamic, athletic edge rusher with star potential who deserves a fringe first round mark.

Myles Murphy continues to grow on me. He looks a bit lighter and quicker this year and while he’s still somewhat overrated by the media, his last three games have been very impressive. For a rusher with his size he appears agile and quick with the ability to attack the edge with burst and lean. I’ve bumped him from a round two grade to a fringe first round grade.

Tyler Davis also excelled and while he’s perhaps more of a third-round type at defensive tackle — he showed a great motor and the ability to swim into the backfield.

Keep an eye on Jonathan Mingo

The Ole Miss receiver is one of the players I’ve enjoyed watching the most this year. He’s 6-2 and 225lbs but he’s just so fluid as a runner. He glides around the field and does an excellent job getting downfield. He’s big and quick, presents his hands to the ball and he’s just a fantastic weapon.

A couple of things really stand out for me. Firstly — explosive plays. He has nine +25-yard receptions this year. Secondly — he’s so effective when you move him to the slot and get him matched up against a safety. Every time I watch him I can’t help but wonder how good he’d be as Seattle’s WR3. Pre-testing I think he’s a second rounder.

B.J. Ojulari continues to rise

I really liked his brother and if anything — B.J. is longer, leaner and quicker. He was a handful again at the weekend against Ole Miss and he just creates so much pressure rushing in space. He’s well versed in the role of a 3-4 OLB and has shown he can drop effectively but also provide a challenge for blockers throughout a game.

I mentioned last week he wears the famous #18 jersey for LSU — an indicator of his leadership qualities. At the very least, he warrants a second round grade. He’s far better than players like K’Lavon Chaisson who had no business going as early as he did.

Alabama notes after a blowout win vs Mississippi State

There was a better performance from Will Anderson on Saturday and he’s a top-three lock next year — but I maintain he’s not on the same level as a Bosa brother, Myles Garrett or Von Miller. At least not based on what he’s shown in 2022.

Byron Young is a personal favourite simply because — as a 3-4 DE — he stays so active. He doesn’t record a bunch of sacks but he consistently breaks into the backfield and gives the quarterback something to think about. He thought he had a sack-fumble in this game but it was overturned as an incomplete pass. Young has great power and mobility for his size and is someone to think about for day two, depending on testing results.

In terms of Bryce Young — in the first half he looked so mature, talented and naturally gifted. Yet the injured shoulder is clearly bothering him. His throws lacked the same kind of zip, he was receiving treatment on the sideline and his second half was, unfortunately, quite bad. He took unnecessary sacks, had plenty of misses, should’ve had multiple turnovers — including a fumbled snap, an avoidable sack fumble and he could’ve been picked in the red zone. He only finished 21/35 for 249 yards and two scores despite the blowout.

C.J Stroud continues to be streaky

The good with Stroud is ever so good. The bad is utterly frustrating.

The screen-shot from earlier in the article led to another interception we see all too often. It was a nice leaping grab by Jack Campbell — a player I’m not sure has the mobility to be a great linebacker at the next level (but this was a great play). Stroud also had a really careless sack/fumble. He was just barged over by a defender and dropped the ball. It was returned for a touchdown.

Yet offsetting this were the usual pretty passes and another collection of a highlight reel moments. The talent is there — but can you trust him to make the step up to the NFL and adjust to the demands of the pro’s?

Thoughts on UCLA’s triplets

I’m yet to study Oregon from this game but have watched the Bruins’ key trio.

The Seahawks should seriously consider drafting running back Zach Charbonnet to pair with Ken Walker. His toughness, explosive traits, ideal size, footwork to make people miss and acceleration is absolutely fantastic. I’ve got him graded in round two. A tremendous player.

Jake Bobo made several clutch catches to extend drives. He also had a wonderful one-handed catch with a defender draped all over him. If Bobo tests well — he would be another fantastic ‘bigger’ WR3 option for Seattle. I have him in round three at the moment but testing is key.

I thought this was Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s worst game of the season (from the games I’ve seen). It wasn’t terrible or anything. He made some plays as a runner and passer and his interception was merely a hopeful, desperate heave late in the fourth quarter on fourth down. You might as well take that shot. I just thought he looked a little bit limited when the game was drifting and he does unfortunately lack size and traits — even though he’s incredible creative and talented. I think a fourth round grade is fair, although he might go later.

Another defensive tackle to monitor

I checked out South Carolina’s Zacch Pickens yesterday after reading a recommendation from Tony Pauline. He’s one to keep an eye on. He has ideal size and you see real flashes of quickness and power on tape. Pickens can shoot gaps to disrupt, he can drive blockers back into the pocket. I like his motor and effort — I just think his conditioning looks like it could use some work. He seems to tire quickly and need a breather. As an impact rusher though from the interior he has some potential. I can imagine him taking a year or two to maximise his potential, though. Even so — a likely day two pick.

A quick word on Michael Penix Jr

He’s probably the player I’m asked about the most and he won again at the weekend, meaning the questions re-started.

I like his size and his arm. There’s a sturdy quality to him which is impressive and it provides the solid base from which he’s able to generate throws with velocity. Yet the offense is a classic ‘set the table’ scheme and he often zones in on his intended target to telegraph throws. It’s a very comfortable offense to play in and he has a history working within it at Indiana. Thus — it’s no surprise he’s executing at a high level.

Penix Jr will get drafted later on and will get an opportunity to see if he can make it stick as — if nothing else — a useful backup. He won’t be a high pick though and he’ll need a lot of work at the next level, even though he has a decent arm.

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Curtis Allen’s week seven watchpoints (vs LA Chargers)

October 23, 2022 /

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen

NOTE — I am hosting the BBC’s national radio coverage of the Seahawks game in LA today. You can listen online by clicking here. 

After the game tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel

The Chargers currently sit at 4-2 and are undeniably talented.  They have the most valuable roster piece of all – a franchise quarterback on a rookie salary – and some big pieces on defense.

This year, though, they have been the living embodiment of the “live by the sword, die by the sword” nature of this NFL season.  Most of their games have featured very slim margins, with a singular play or two making the difference.

They lost a close one to Kansas City in a game that included Justin Herbert throwing a backbreaking 99-yard pick six in the fourth quarter.

They beat Cleveland by the skin of their teeth when the Browns’ kicker missed a 54-yard field goal try with moments to play.  Jacoby Brissett also had a very poorly thrown interception late in the game in the red zone.  

Their most recent win came in overtime and featured a muffed punt by the Broncos that sealed the game.

That does not mean their record is inflated.  I am just pointing out that for a team that has very high expectations for this season, they have been playing close to the razor’s edge. That is a good thing for the Seahawks.

Still, this game will require Seattle to be sharp in all phases – including the coaching staff to prepare a proper game plan in order to put their players in the best position for success – if they want to come away with a victory.

The Rookie Class Will Need Both Great Individual Efforts and Team Support

This group has exceeded all expectations so far this season and has been a massive boost to the team and their future team building plans.  This game will be their biggest test yet.  Why?

Practically everywhere you look at this Chargers team, there are very accomplished players that will match up against a Seahawks rookie.

Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will line up across Tariq Woolen and potentially Coby Bryant.

Khalil Mack will be trying to get past Abe Lucas and Charles Cross (more on that below).

Those are tough assignments for anyone, let alone players with only six games of NFL experience.  No doubt the coaching staff will not put them all on islands and ask them to consistently win every snap.

The pass rush and Quandre Diggs will need effective games to keep these great receivers from tilting the field.

The tight ends and running backs will be needed to chip and block the rushers and Shane Waldron will need a balanced attack with a steady diet of runs and quick passes to maximize Geno Smith’s effectiveness.

Darrell Taylor, Uchenna Nwosu and the interior players will need to be effective in their assignments.

At the end of the day though, there will be several plays Sunday where a rookie player will be one-on-one with a very talented Charger.  Holding them to a draw would be a big, big victory for the team.

For their long-term development, sure some mistakes and losses would provide some great teaching moments for the players and the coaching staff.  In this game though, there is quite a large burden being put on the rookies’ shoulders.  How they respond will have a lot to say about the outcome of this game.

There is one more rookie we have not yet discussed that should also figure very prominently on Sunday…

Feature the Run Game and Do Not Abandon It

Some fun with numbers…

The Chargers had the #30 run defense last year, conceding 139 yards per game and they gave up a league-worst 144 rushing first downs.

This year they have risen to #23 in the NFL at 125 yards per game and incredibly, are on pace to concede only 77 rushing first downs.  So, in this one area they would flip their position from league-worst to league-best.

The numbers would suggest the Chargers have made a serious improvement in run defense.

Don’t believe them.  They are lying to you.  The Chargers are still one of the NFL’s worst run defenses again this season.

What is the real story?  The Chargers are giving up an awful 5.6 yards per carry, worst in the NFL except for the Giants by a slim margin.  Why so few first down runs then?

The Chargers have only faced 22.5 rushing attempts per game this year, good for 27th in the league.  Teams are running very well on them, just not very often.  This is a serious weakness the Seahawks are primed to exploit.

Why are teams not pounding the rock on Los Angeles?  I am not sure.  They do have a good number of tackles for loss, which might be concerning to play callers.

One thing I am sure of:  It is not because the Chargers have such a dynamic offense that they run up the score early and teams are being forced to abandon their running game to catch up.  

The Charger defense has taken the field with a lead on 49% of their snaps.  Compare that to the #28-32 teams in terms of fewest rushing attempts faced:  their defenses have been on the field with a lead a whopping 66% of the time.

What does facing a low number of attempts and conceding a high average per carry mean?  They are allowing some really explosive runs.

Look at this chart of their opponents’ successes running the ball so far this season:

Twelve explosive runs and four of them more than triple the 12-yard threshold for an explosive run.  And the efficiency – my goodness, these runners are just gashing the Chargers in a relatively small number of carries.

Is there one specific direction runners are making these big gains?  No.  Look at the two right columns – they are happening both inside and outside the box, and are attacking the left side, the right side and the middle.

So, what is happening with the Charger defense that is causing so many big runs?  One big factor is they are running a defense very similar to what Head Coach Brandon Staley ran with the Rams as defensive coordinator.  On the defensive line, the interior players have a ‘gap and a half’ responsibility.  In short, it means the defender is tasked with engaging the guard or center, reading the runner and the gap and then coming off his man and making the tackle.

It works brilliantly when you have Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers.  Not so much when you do not have players of their caliber.  Thus, the Chargers can be exploited with a heavy package of blockers.

That is exactly what is happening.  Looking at those explosive runs on tape, there was a common thread in the vast majority of them:  the offense employed a power formation at the line of scrimmage.  All of Nick Chubb’s runs had at least six on the line.  One had seven.  One had eight!

Look at Dameon Pierce’s 75-yard run.

You have six on the line, Nico Collins is off the line but crashing in to help on the edge (that’s seven) and Fullback Troy Hairston is leading Pierce through the hole and taking Derwin James out of the play.

Did you notice that Pierce was never even touched?  On a 75-yard run.  Runs do not get any easier than that.

The Seahawks have a running back ready to explode in Ken Walker.  Last week against the Cardinals he had four explosive runs.  Alright, fine.  He only had three.  I rounded up.  His 11-yard run counts as explosive in my mind because he wasn’t stopped by a tackler but the goal line.  And that little okie-doke move he gave Byron Murphy at the end was sweet.

The point being, running with a power formation should be a regular feature of Seattle’s offense on Sunday.  The have the means, motive and opportunity.

Other teams so far have just flirted with it.  They get their explosives and then check out of the runs and go to the passing game.  So odd.  

Just to be clear, I am not stumping for the Seahawks to run 35 or 40 times on Sunday.  Just make sure you do not shy away from running, even if it does not produce amazing results immediately.  We have seen rock-solid evidence that it will come if you stick to it.

Having a stacked offensive line and running a lot will also assist you greatly in keeping the strongest area of their defense in check…

Do Not Allow Khalil Mack to Disrupt the Entire Offense

Let’s not mince words.  The Seahawks are countering maybe the NFL’s best pass-rusher on Sunday with bookend rookie tackles who had a really challenging day last week against Arizona.

Charles Cross (59 PFF Sunday) and Abe Lucas (61) facing off against J.J. Watt and Marcus Golden last week was just a warmup for this weekend.

They will be taking the point on keeping him in check and they will need to bring their A-game Sunday for the offense to function as it wants to.

Mack is having a tremendous season.  While league talking heads are not unjustifiably focusing a lot of attention on the Russell Wilson trade as a huge win for Seattle, the Chargers must be over the moon with their trade for Mack.  For only a second-round pick this year and a sixth-round pick next year, they have an 86.9-graded PFF player on the field for 85% of their defensive snaps who has collected six sacks, seven tackles for loss and forced a fumble.

Oh, and they are paying him only $8.75 million this year.  And they have him under contract for the next two years with little to no guarantees.  That is what you call a steal of a deal right there.

But back to the game Sunday.  The Chargers line Mack up against both tackles, so they will both need to be ready.

There are several things the Seahawks can do to help mitigate the effect that these two players will have on the offense:

-Run the ball consistently.

-The tight ends will be a critical piece for this game.  From just straight up helping the tackles in a standard blocking formation, to chipping and then releasing and getting open for a quick timed pass, to using them in a fullback/H-back type position to lead the runner through holes.

-Geno Smith will need to be even quicker with his processing.  There will be plays the Seahawks do not max-protect and he will have to know that sooner rather than later the rush is coming.  He will need to decide to throw or scramble at a faster pace.  Typically, this year he has been fine in this area but he regressed Sunday against Arizona a bit and that led to him being sacked six times — as Pete Carroll has acknowledged.

-The running backs will need to stand ready to pick up rushers.  The Chargers blitzed 24 times last week against Denver.  The backs will need to give more than a token effort to pick them up and give Geno that extra half-second he needs to make his throw.

All those are great ways they can help.  But as I said above, at the end of the day Cross and Lucas will still face Mack or a blitzer one on one at times.  It is just a numbers game.  You cannot double-team him and a blitzer on every single play.  How they do in these matchups will be crucial.

One thing that will provide incentive for them to play well – the Chargers are not just giving up explosive run plays.  They have been burned several times in the deep passing game.  Big acquisition J.C. Jackson is struggling with a new scheme and his health to the point that he got benched Sunday.  They have claimed that he will start Sunday.  At this point, what looked like an offseason area of strength is now looking like a real vulnerability.

One of the reasons Los Angeles is struggling with deep passes:  Staley misses Jalen Ramsey just as much as he misses Aaron Donald.  He literally had Ramsey on an island and flooded coverage on the other side of the field.  You look very, very good as a defensive coordinator with a player who can take half the field away.

Staley does not have that advantage anymore.  In fact, his corners have been beaten with regularity.

And those nine blitzes per game I mentioned up above?  They open the middle up and put pressure on the backfield to consistently win one-on-one, which they have yet to do to the degree they need to.  So, if the blitzer does not get home or otherwise effect the play, the defensive backs are vulnerable.  And they will be more so if they are trying to cover D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

The Seahawks should be able to take advantage of this.  If – and this is a big if – their blockers can provide the quarterback enough time to make his reads and throws.

Special Teams, Please Do Not Do Anything Stupid

This point is self-explanatory.  Two weeks in a row we have seen a punt go horribly awry and both resulted in touchdowns for the other team.

In the Saints loss, the margin of victory was seven points.

In the Cardinals win, the Seahawks were able to shrug it off because they won comfortably and the defense had an uncharacteristically great day holding the offense out of the end zone with some assistance from a wonky Cardinal offense.

The Chargers are more talented than those two teams, and the Seahawks defense is still fragile.  Barring some strange collapse by the Chargers, a best-case scenario is this game will be another close matchup.  Another blunder could make the difference like it did in the New Orleans game.

Special Teams has always been a source of pride for Pete Carroll.  When he spoke earlier this week about the mistakes driving them crazy, I believe him.  Look for the Seahawks to right the ship this week.

They better – they will need to be very effective to beat the Chargers.

College football open thread & notes (week 8)

October 22, 2022 /

This weeked I am watching the following:

Syracuse vs Clemson
Ole Miss vs LSU
Mississippi State vs Alabama
Washington vs California

My focus will mainly be on defensive players this week. I will watch the quarterbacks as usual when those become available (I will aim to watch all 2022 games of the big name QB’s) but I also want to get an angle on the defensive class.

Due to work commitments no notes this week but a quick plug — if you’re in the UK (and you might be able to listen globally online) — I am hosting the BBC’s national radio coverage of the NFL tomorrow and the featured game is none other than the Seahawks vs Chargers. I’ll post a link tomorrow and if you get a chance, check it out.

Some players I want to touch on today…

October 20, 2022 /

I’m continuing to plough through games to fill out my horizontal board which already has 116 names on it. Considering I haven’t previously started a board until well after the college football season — I hope this provides some scope on the work I’m trying to put in this year, ahead of a huge draft for the Seahawks in 2023.

I wanted to write a few notes down on some players who’ve caught my eye. I appreciate I’m putting a lot of names out at the moment — I’d recommend running through recent articles you might’ve missed for other thoughts on different players.

I’ll share this though. This is what I’ve compiled for the first round:

Legit first round grades

Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)
Will Anderson (DE, Alabama)
Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame)
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)

Fringe first round grades

Jalin Hyatt (WR, Tennessee)
Darnell Wright (T, Tennessee)
K.J. Henry (DE, Clemson)
Bryan Bresee (DT, Clemson)
Kelee Ringo (CB, Georgia)
Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)

I also have a bunch of second and third rounders — but I want to do more work and publish the board in 2-4 weeks time with some information/detail left unsaid for now. However — I do have six centers in this range (many of which I’ve written about recently). Ten receivers (including Zay Flowers — very impressive, Jonathan Mingo — big and only scratching the surface and Bryce Ford-Wheaton — if he declares, a very interesting talent). Luke Musgrave the Oregon State tight end is in this range, as is Georgia safety Christopher Smith and UCLA running back Zach Charbonnet.

Jalin Hyatt (WR, Tennessee)
A lot of people will be turned on to Hyatt after the Alabama game and I went back to review five Tennessee games. Speed kills in the NFL and there isn’t anyone like Hyatt in this class who can get into his route efficiently then accelerate through the stem and create separation. He’s not just a blazer off the line who leaves defenders in his wake. Hyatt does something that’s arguably even more useful. It’s that late change through the gears that often shocks cornerbacks. It’s devastating. And you see it on the deep shots and basic slants where he creates the key separation as the ball enters his eye-line. He also presents his hands to the ball and generally does a good job catching. He’s going to be tremendously difficult to cover at the next level and he carries himself with a confidence you expect to see from a future star receiver. He has a great chance to go in the top-45 if he continues to excel.

Byron Young (DE/DT, Alabama)
Young isn’t a game-wrecker and nobody is going to be ‘wowed’ by his tape. Yet I noticed a couple of things watching Alabama’s D-line. Firstly, he’s very good at attacking his gap. While it doesn’t translate to a lot of pressures or sacks — it frequently forces a running back to think on his feet and it’s an easy way to disrupt rhythm in the passing game. There are plays where even though he’s not creating a pressure — his ability to shoot a gap or shove someone backwards creates disruption. On top of that, he’s stout at the POA and difficult to move. I couldn’t help but think he’d be a nice option for the Seahawks if they retain the scheme they’re rolling with. I’m not sure how he’ll test but I see him as a second-day-er who can be solid and useful — if unspectacular — at the next level.

Matthew Bergeron (T, Syracuse)
A Canadian-born blocker — I thought he looked extremely accomplished on tape. He was rarely out of position. He can set with fluidity to block-off the route to the quarterback. I like his kick-slide although it can be a little choppy at times. He can smooth that out. I’ve seen some sniffy reviews about how he finishes vs the run but I didn’t see any problems there. He plays with an edge and there were a couple of snaps where he dumped opponents to the turf against NC State. He doesn’t look quite like a prototype left tackle — he lacks obvious length in the torso — and I’m intrigued to see how he weighs and measures. He’s got ample lower body bulk though and I think at the very least he’ll find a home at guard, with the potential to be a useful starter. Testing numbers are always big at tackle and if he performs well, there’s no reason why he can’t be at least a day-two pick.

B.J. Ojulari (DE, LSU)
If Ojulari can put it all together, he can be a real threat at the next level. He has great quickness off the snap to put the tackle on skates — plus the length and bend to get around the arc and straighten to the quarterback. He has a variety of moves — he just needs to refine them all. There’s a euro-step, a spin move, a rip/swim, he’ll stunt inside. He does everything and when he’s honed his technique — combined with his explosive power and speed — he could be a terror off the edge. Ojulari also drops quite a lot into coverage and plays the role of a traditional 3-4 OLB. He does it well — he’s a fluid mover who can cover ground and fly to the ball when needed. He also has an edge and an intensity to his play. At LSU they have a tradition of awarding the #18 jersey to a player who shows the following aspects and traits: attention to detail, laser focus, attitude, smarts, grit. I liked his brother Azeez Ojulari when he was at Georgia and B.J shares some of his qualities. He’s a good player with the potential to have his best years in the NFL. Before testing, I’ll give him a day two grade.

Sedrick Van Pran (C, Georgia)
Blocking in a phone booth — he is very accomplished. He can latch on and control 1v1. There’s evidence on tape of how useful this can be. A lot of Georgia’s successful runs come from the interior, running into gaps created by the 1v1 blocking at guard and center. There’s evidence of him pulling and latching on successfully, moving to his right. He does have a tendency sometimes to over-extend and it’s surprising nobody has tried bat his arms down and use his own forward momentum against him. It’s an odd technical niggle given he shows so well planting the anchor with a good, strong back — there’s little need for him to reach as much as he does. Even so, he does keep his frame clean regularly. Van Pran’s second-level skills are a mixed bag. Sometimes he seems a bit lost when he progresses — but then there’s also evidence of some nasty, vicious blocking against smaller linebackers. Depending on how he tests, he could have day-two potential. I’ve found six centers I like in this range so far.

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Too early thoughts on the Seahawks’ draft options

October 18, 2022 /

If the season ended today the Seahawks would own the #7 and #14 overall picks in round one and #38 and #45 in round two.

I want to look at some (admittedly premature) scenarios for the options they might have with those picks.

Firstly, I want to repeat the reality of Seattle’s 2023 off-season. They have $32m in effective cap space with only 33 players contracted for next season — including zero quarterbacks.

Only the Chiefs and Raiders have fewer contracted players for 2023 currently.

So basically, there’s a lot of work to do and not a lot of money to play with.

I really think they budgeted to have a rookie quarterback next year. I think they spent accordingly, expecting to draft a QB in 2023 and be making a big saving at the position, allowing them to spend elsewhere.

For all the talk of re-signing Geno Smith, even if he was given a $15m contract next year — which would be incredibly modest based on his performances so far — that would be half your available cap space gone with only 34 signed players.

People are legitimately saying give him a three-year deal worth $20-30m. The only way to do this would be to severely back-load the deal. It would mean the final year of the contract would essentially be meaningless short of Geno playing at an elite level. The team would need an easy ‘out’ with limited dead money. His willingness to accept such an agreement would depend on what interest other teams show in him.

This would allow you to potentially keep the 2023 cap hit down, with something like a $45m cap hit in 2025. You can see, now, why you’d need a way out.

I do think the Seahawks will consider this. You have to be adaptable and the truth is Smith has over-performed everyone’s expectations (including Seattle’s — otherwise they would’ve signed him to more than they did for only one season).

Of course it’s possible he won’t have much of a market. He is, after all, a journeyman quarterback who is suddenly playing well. It’s one of the reasons you have to wait this out really and let the market come to you. Geno and the team need to find out what the rest of the league is saying he’s worth.

Adjusting spending plans at quarterback would mean making sacrifices elsewhere and thus creating new holes.

Based on what we’ve seen so far, there’s no way they can justify Quandre Diggs’ $18m cap hit in 2023. Cutting him post-June 1st will split the dead cap hit between 2023 and 2024 and you’ll save $14m. That could be enough to retain Geno Smith but would create a hole at free safety — a hole that can be filled in the draft (more on that in a moment).

Gabe Jackson will also surely be cut to save $6.5m — but how the Seahawks worked out a way to be stuck with $4.7m in dead money in year three of his contract is mind-blowing. They have not handled their cap well over recent years.

I think we’ve possibly seen the last of their big investments on the O-line. The Rams’ blocking scheme, which they are mimicking, has been very productive over the years by introducing ‘types’ of players at a cost-effective price. They love to convert college tackles into guards and like the Austin Blythe/Brian Allen types at center. If the Seahawks replace Jackson it could be someone like Jake Curhan or Stone Forsyth already on the roster — or it could be a later round pick.

I’m not against more high picks on the O-line — especially with a good looking center class — I’m just suggesting what could be more likely.

Onto the draft picks…

Let’s start with their top choice which, courtesy of Denver, is currently #7 overall.

I think it’s increasingly likely Will Levis will be the #1 overall pick. He’s an easy projection for teams because everything about him is transferable. The traits, the arm, the size, the pro-style offense.

We all love to have our opinions and people argue endlessly on the internet about players and prospects. A GM picking first overall needs a hit. He needs to look at the owner and say, ‘this player is going to be the guy’ and then provide evidence to back up the argument in basic terms.

Levis provides the easiest set of answers at the most important position. It also helps you can play this clip in the meeting room:

I would predict the top three players will, at this early stage, be:

Will Levis (QB)
Will Anderson (DE)
C.J. Stroud (QB)

After that, we could see Bryce Young (QB) come off the board quickly depending on how teams picking in the top-10 view his size.

Then, things get tricky.

Bijan Robinson (RB) will be the highest graded player on a lot of boards but positionally, it’s always a debate as to how high a running back should be taken. In this draft, I think he’ll go high because the alternatives just aren’t there.

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) could find himself in the same situation.

The other name I would mention is Anthony Richardson (QB). I know he’s had a very up-and-down season for Florida. However, this is all about projection. Richardson has everything required to be special. He is a physical phenomena. He is a player who, on Saturday, had an 81-yard rushing touchdown and a 51-yard touchdown pass in the same game. If he is developed and fine-tuned, he could be a superstar.

His bad games have been very, very bad this year. His good moments have been eye-catching. In fairness, it was a similar story for Josh Allen at Wyoming. He was awful in college and took two years in the NFL to become the player we see today. Allen was a meme in the early days of his Buffalo career.

Richardson could take a similar path. With time, he has everything to be special. If he declares — with so few options in the top-10 — I promise someone will roll the dice.

I don’t think it’s too unrealistic that a top-six could include, therefore:

Will Levis (QB)
Will Anderson (DE)
C.J. Stroud (QB)
Bryce Young (QB)
Bijan Robinson (RB)
Anthony Richardson (QB)

Again, Bryce Young might be the biggest question mark as teams consider whether a 5-10, 185lbs quarterback is a wise investment. Yet his talent, competitive nature and playmaking quality could tempt someone to look beyond those size limitations.

So the first question is — are the Seahawks better off staying put at #7 or moving up?

Having a quarterback who can learn and develop behind Geno Smith would be a wise move. A Smith/Richardson combo, for example, could create Seattle’s answer to Alex Smith/Patrick Mahomes (although Richardson is far less experienced than Mahomes was at Texas Tech).

Levis and Young would be better prepared to start early if you needed to replace Geno. Stroud, I think, would need time to adjust to the pro-system he’d be entering.

I don’t see Will Anderson as a game-wrecking Bosa brother or Myles Garrett/Von Miller type. He’s a very good pass rusher but you only have to see the way Darnell Wright handled him on Saturday to realise he’s perhaps not going to be an unstoppable force — rather a very useful starter. Still — the Seahawks might be prepared to take a chance on him being special and to be fair, his 2021 season was one for the ages — even if he has underwhelmed at times in 2022.

I wouldn’t be against trading #7 and #14 in this draft to move up if you truly believe in one of the top players. The options in the teens, so far, are not looking great.

If they stay at #7 though — and the six names above are gone — my suggestion right now (and it’s too early to make a firm prediction) would be to pivot to Mazi Smith (DT). He’s an incredible athlete with insane agility, quickness, power and explosive traits. His 0.5 sacks for the season totally bely the consistent pressure he’s provided despite his nose tackle size.

There aren’t many 6-3 325lbs defensive linemen with his physical profile. A 33 inch vertical, a 9-5 broad, a 4.41 short shuttle, a 6.95 three cone. Incredible.

Smith gives you a chance to draft an impact defensive lineman with special upside. For me, he is the clear #2 D-liner in this class after Will Anderson and will likely go in the top-12.

At #14 — you could make a case for Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) or Michael Mayer (TE) based on talent — but neither position will be coveted by Seahawks fans. Perhaps if a Brian Bresee (DT) is available you roll the dice on his massive physical upside but it hasn’t led to great results on the field at Clemson. I think Jalen Carter (DT) is a bit overrated as a top-10 pick and could also be available.

If you wanted the freakiest cornerback pairing in football, Kelee Ringo (CB) playing across from Tariq Woolen would be interesting. He’s 6-2 and 215lbs and supposedly runs a 4.3. I have to admit — that would be something to witness. Yet Ringo hasn’t played that well this year — not even against Vanderbilt at the weekend in a blow-out. So there’s some projection with him (but I guess there was with Woolen too).

If the Seahawks needed a tackle I would mention Darnell Wright (RT) here. However, they have nailed that position down.

You can talk yourself into players but there’s a lot of potential and not a lot of college production among some of the names being touted as early picks.

Given the way the defense has played it would be very appealing to add high-upside talent to try and create a better unit. I do worry, however, about a team leaning on 32-year-old Geno Smith at quarterback and ending up being another Washington-type with some good defenders but an offense that’s constantly looking for ‘the guy’. Geno’s play has been a nice surprise but I hope it’s simply creating a more attractive bridge rather than being seen as a long-term answer.

That said — I do like investment in the trenches and at premium positions. For me Seattle’s biggest needs are clear — a long term answer at quarterback and creating a defensive line capable of doing more to impact games. They should set an aim of creating a terrifying defensive front.

There are some quarterbacks you could target later on but I would urge some caution for fans thinking there are loads of options beyond the top-10. I think the middle rounds are a fair range for players like Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Hendon Hooker if you want to take a punt there. Some teams will like Tanner McKee (I think he gives off Mike Glennon vibes) and I’m not sure there’s a lot to get excited about after that. BYU’s Jaren Hall has really fallen off recently, for example.

At picks #38 and #45 — this would be a good spot to consider adding someone like Christopher Smith (S). His range and playmaking quality would be a welcome replacement for Quandre Diggs.

I’m very intrigued by Clemson’s K.J. Henry (DE) and Kansas State’s Felix Anudike-Uzomah (DE) also has a lot of appealing tape. I have both players with fringe first round grades.

I’d love to think the four centers would be an option — John Michael Schmitz, Joe Tippman, Ricky Stromberg and Olusegun Oluwatimi. I suspect they’re more likely to retain Austin Blythe or find someone similar.

Although taking another running back early will upset certain sections of Seattle’s fan base — I wouldn’t be upset at all if they were able to land a Zach Charbonnet or Chris Rodriguez in round three. Charbonnet’s quick feet, size and speed could push him into round two. Rodriguez is Marshawn-like in his ability to hammer defenders and create yards after contact.

As I’ve said quite a lot already — it’s early days. There’s still so much that will shape this class — the rest of the college football season, the Senior Bowl, the combine. I’m watching anywhere between 8-12 games a week at the moment and still only scratching the surface of what this class is.

But I do think I’ve got a good feel for the first frame. There are good options in the first few picks. Then there’s a sheer drop.

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College football week seven draft notes

October 17, 2022 /

There are good centers in this draft

I don’t necessarily expect the Seahawks to draft one, mind. The Rams have a ‘type’ for their blocking scheme. It was Austin Blythe and now it’s Brian Allen. Smaller frame, wrestling background etc. It’s no surprise Seattle recently brought back Joey Hunt who also fits the bill.

The ‘plus’ version of Blythe and Allen was Tyler Linderbaum in the 2022 draft and the Ravens took him before Seattle had a chance to seriously consider him.

The centers in the 2023 class are bigger, more powerful blockers. I’ve not studied the Rams blocking scheme to any great extent so I can’t say why they favour this type of center. It could be adaptable. They might think the position is fungible.

I guess what I’m saying is I wouldn’t rule anything out — but my advice would be don’t get your hopes up too much as I/we spend some time talking about good centers in this class. My guess is they’re more likely to find ‘their guy’ later on who fits a profile — or simply retain Blythe. People won’t like that but they haven’t particularly shown any great desire to invest in a center.

As I’m starting to build my 2023 board, I’ve got four players with tentative second round grades.

Minnesota’s John Michael Schmitz is an incredibly powerful, often brutal interior blocker who drives people off the line of scrimmage. He’s 6-4 and 320lbs but moves surprisingly well laterally. His hand placement appears to be extremely effective and he can drop the anchor when needed in pass protection. Watching him is a lot of fun and while he might have testing limitations and a lack of positional flexibility (he has played center exclusively in college) — he looks like a clear plug-in-and-play type. One note — he will be a 24-year-old rookie.

Wisconsin’s Joe Tippmann has similar size at 6-6 and 323lbs but he’s expected to test extremely well and that could easily promote him into the first round mix. Reportedly he runs a 1.65 10-yard split and a 4.31 short shuttle. He’s also incredibly strong — recording a 455lbs bench press and a 635lbs back-squat. Tippmann is another powerful, impressive blocker who locks onto his target and finishes. He’s not just a great athlete — his power is impressive and you’d expect an explosive testing performance. The only downside is his height and it means he loses the occasional leverage battle. But I like the way he initiates contact and then benches to extend and win blocks.

Arkansas’ Ricky Stromberg is another massive center with impressive athletic skills. He’s 6-4 and 320lbs but ran a 4.46 short shuttle at SPARQ at the same weight. His overall SPARQ score was a 103.86 which is remarkable for a man of his size. Funnily enough despite that great agility testing I think his footwork lets him down at times. He can be a bit flat-footed when engaged but in the running game he has some highly impressive reps. I like his hand placement and I think you can get him on the move to be creative to spring gaps.

Michigan’s Olusegun Oluwatimi might actually be the player I’ve enjoyed watching the most. He possibly lacks the top-level athleticism of the players above and therefore some of the same upside — yet his tape is the most consistent. It’s extremely hard to find bad reps. While he doesn’t necessarily wow you with explosive power or quick feet — he gets the job done. If you need him to pull and get on the outside, then lock on to someone in space — he’ll do it. If you need a couple of yards in the running game, he’ll smash his guy at the LOS and get you your two yards. Michigan has some creative run concepts and sometimes Oluwatimi has to snap then run to the edge and block the defensive end being giving a free run to the backfield.

He does everything well.

He’s 6-3 and 310lbs. In the NFL physical traits do matter and we need to see how he tests. Athletic limitations do get exposed at the next level when you’re not playing for the defending BIG-10 Champions against overmatched opponents, while being coached by a NFL Head Coach who has been to a Super Bowl. Yet everything I’ve watched from Oluwatimi makes me want him. I’m sure he’ll do a great job when one of the AFC North teams take him instead.

I’ve also got Ohio State’s Luke Wypler currently marked in round three, with Notre Dame’s Jarrett Patterson and Alex Forsyth of Oregon in round four. I still have more players to watch, too.

Again — I’m not sure the Seahawks are going to be in the center market in 2023. But the players are there.

Darnell Wright is the real deal

I’ve not really needed to talk about Tennessee’s right tackle so far because let’s be right — the Seahawks are not going to be in the market for one next year. However, Wright is such a fantastic player and is down as a fringe first rounder on my board.

He handled Will Anderson against Alabama. I don’t mean he did well against him. He dominated 1v1. There were multiple reps where he locked-on to Anderson, completely controlled him and took him out of the play.

On one snap he dumped Jah-Marien Latham on his backside. He passed defenders off with ease despite all of the stunts Alabama throw at opponents. He’d clearly done his homework and had an answer for everything. His feet are good for his size, he moves to get into position well, his hand-placement is very good and he finishes.

He’s a very different body type to Abraham Lucas who, by all accounts, had a left tackle body just with exclusive right tackle experience. They are different players but there’s an excitement level with Wright that deserves more attention. For me, he is far better than Paris Johnson Jr and Peter Skoronski — the two offensive tackles often mocked early in round one. I have Johnson Jr in round two and Skoronski as a guard convert.

I think it’d almost be a waste to take such a talented tackle and shift him to right guard but I’m also not saying I wouldn’t consider it for the Seahawks if they want to keep bolstering their O-line. He has the size and skills to make that an easy transition. Although I do think he’ll end up being a first round pick and I’m not sure that’d be the best use of resources — especially when this is a scheme that has been able to plug in later round tackle converts in LA.

TCU safety impresses again

The Seahawks made some big calls last off-season — trading Russell Wilson and cutting Bobby Wagner.

They need to do the same in the up-coming off-season.

Quandre Diggs is not playing anywhere near well enough to justify an $18.1m cap hit in 2023. So many people in the media and the fan base keep saying the Seahawks have loads to spend next year. They don’t. They’ve spent most of it already on players like Diggs. They have $32m in effective cap space and have only 33 contracted players next year — including zero quarterbacks.

They need to be spending their money in the right areas.

Designating Diggs as a post-June 1st cut will allow the Seahawks to spread the dead money out, paying $4.1m in 2023 and $4.1m in 2024. It’s a waste, obviously, but such is the ham-fisted way they’ve botched their cap situation over the last few years.

Nevertheless, they need that $14m to go elsewhere. Maybe even to Geno Smith.

They should then focus on drafting young, fast, dynamic players for the safety position. It’s just a shame they’re handcuffed to Jamal Adams for another year. Cutting him after June 1st would save you $11m in 2023 but would cost you $14m in 2024.

It’s not a blistering safety class but there’s some nice depth types later on (John Torchio, Larry Brooks, Hunter Reynolds) and there are two players I would circle to be drafted a bit earlier.

The first is Georgia’s Christopher Smith. He wears #29 — a nod to a certain somebody, no doubt — and he has the range, hitting and playmaking qualities Seattle needs in a young free safety. I think he’s a second round pick.

I’d then target Abraham Camara of TCU if he declares.

I love the way he plays the game. He’s not the biggest player or a traditional strong safety. He lines up a lot in the nickel, he lines up deep, he has some snaps outside or covering the slot. He’s a very versatile weapon.

However, the guy packs a tremendous punch. He is a big-time hitter. He leaves a mark and does provide a fear-factor.

He again flashed in the win against Oklahoma State. Camara had a touchdown saving tackle on the first defensive drive of the game. He had an absolute sledgehammer hit on the second drive which had the fans in the stadium gasping. There was another huge hit with 3:47 left in the third quarter. There was also one play where he had a brilliant read in coverage, flew to the ball-carrier and delivered a textbook tackle.

Camara is also a bundle of energy and emotion. He’s animated, he’s passionate. I think he’s a tone-setter. His grading in coverage is superb this season and he led the Big-12 in QBR when targeted in the first month of the season.

He gets around the field, makes plays and he can hit.

Ventrel Miller warrants attention

I’ve watched all of Florida’s games this season and every week he has stood out. When he missed a game through injury, it left a gaping hole in UF’s run defense.

Miller isn’t a brilliant athlete and given Seattle’s preference for great athletes at linebacker, it might put them off. However — I’ve seen enough from the linebackers this year to think maybe having someone who just gets the job done and can lead at a young age is something to desire.

In the loss to LSU he had a brilliant TFL — knifing into the backfield to hammer the running back. He showed speed and anticipation to read the opportunity and go for it.

Laterally he is going to have some issues. He is not a flying linebacker who’ll race sideline-to-sideline and string out plays. You don’t want him in coverage and you do want him playing downfield.

Yet there’s such an intensity to his play and he has been impactful this year with five TFL’s and five QB hurries.

He doesn’t get much support either. Florida’s defense is bad. After a difficult start to the third quarter, Miller stood up on the bench and was shown on the TV copy giving a passionate speech to the rest of the defense. According to the sideline reporter, it was such an emotive speech the crowd behind the bench gave Miller a standing ovation.

Just run a good short shuttle, Ventrel. I want to love you.

Mazi Smith is the best defensive tackle eligible for 2023

I’ve watched all of the big names now and Smith is the best. Week after week he is producing pressure, even if the sack numbers (0.5 in seven games) aren’t there. He is just so impressive.

He’s 6-3 and 326lbs and yet his movement and agility is top-notch. He swims away from blockers to penetrate, he can dart through gaps and create immediate pressure. When you need him to absorb double-teams he can to plug holes vs the run. Not every snap is a roaring success but it never is. Smith is a terrific player.

Given he is also reportedly capable of a 4.41 short shuttle, a 9-5 broad jump, a 6.95 three cone and he’ll do a ton of reps on the bench — he has everything required to be a top-15 (if not a top-10) pick. Especially in this class when the alternatives are so thin.

Is Smith going to be a game-wrecker? No. Is he the next Quinnen Williams? No. Can he pretty much fit into every scheme and provide rare athleticism, quickness and size at defensive tackle? Yes.

He should be the first defensive tackle drafted, based on what we’ve seen so far.

A quick word on Quinton Johnson

The TCU receiver has finally broken out after a slow start to the season. He looks terrific again — combining outstanding size, speed and general athleticism to impact games. Reportedly he can run a 4.4 and jump a 42-inch vertical.

The thing I want to note about him though — his body type reminds me so much of Richard Sherman. A slightly quicker version. But that’s what his frame looks like. He’s also a very good player who will go no later than the second round and could easily go in the first frame.

Alabama vs Tennessee

This was very much a contest between two big name quarterbacks but I want to start by talking about defense. In particular, Alabama’s inability to do anything well.

I can’t remember the last time a ‘Bama unit looked this inept. Especially in the secondary. They looked slow, pedestrian and incapable of impacting the game. They were consistently beaten on short and long range routes in the secondary and the pass rush was ineffective.

It was another disappointing showing from Will Anderson. He only had half a TFL in this game but that barely tells the story. As noted above — he consistently lost to right tackle Darnell Wright.

Let me be clear — Anderson is a very good player with a bright future. He is a lock to go in the top five, possibly the top three. His 2022 season probably warranted the Heisman — it’s a shame that award so often goes to the most productive quarterback. He could and should come into the NFL and provide an immediate presence off the edge.

Is he a game-wrecker though? That’s where I have my doubts. In a game like this you want to see him make an impact. Alabama’s secondary was struggling, they needed someone up front to step up and make a key play.

Like I said, Anderson will be a good player. Alabama’s struggles weren’t on him. But if he’s going to be a Bosa brother at the NFL level, or Myles Garrett, or Von Miller — you want to see him do more in a big game like this.

Onto the quarterbacks and Hendon Hooker will get most of the headlines because Tennessee won. I’ll talk about him in a moment but generally, I thought this was more of the same from Hooker. A continuation of what we’ve seen all year. Some good, some bad. But you have to credit the way he leads Tennessee.

I thought Bryce Young, though, was sensational.

This was Young at his creative best. Alabama trailed 21-7 after the first quarter and there was a feeling they had to keep up or this was going to get ugly. Young kept them alive and dragged them kicking and screaming into a three-point game.

Yes it helped having the brilliant Jahmyr Gibbs in the backfield. He looks, incredibly, like an even better version of former Alabama and Tennessee runner Alvin Kamara. Yet Young himself threw for 455 yards, completed 35/52 passing and scored a couple of touchdowns.

His processing was practically perfect in this game. He consistently made the right decision — when to leave the pocket, when to let plays develop, when to try and create. There were no limitations despite his recent should injury as he threw with plenty of juice. He had a classic Russell Wilson-esque play on one snap — avoiding two tackles to evade pressure, keeping things alive for what felt like an age, then throwing to the end zone to draw a questionable DPI penalty to extend a drive on third down.

He had to work hard for his touchdowns, unlike Hooker who benefitted from some nice lay-up opportunities.

There’s just something naturally brilliant about Young. His feel, his instinct, his athletic qualities. His manner on the sideline is competitive yet measured. He looks like a player people will gravitate towards. He looks like the kind of player you want on your side when the game is on the line, or when you need someone to keep you in a contest after a bad start.

I do wish, however, we could just accept the fact that he is uniquely sized at about 5-10 and 185lbs and there’s nothing wrong with teams (or bloggers) having reservations about that. I can well imagine we’re going to have a lot of chest-beating comments on twitter about the ‘ridiculous’ NFL focusing on his size.

It’s very easy to feel that way when you’re merely commenting on the internet and not putting your job, reputation and an owner’s money on the line.

We’ve never seen anyone like Young before. For that reason, it’s easy to imagine him succeeding with his natural talent and ability. It’s also easy to imagine him struggling to handle the physical demands of the NFL or playing far less successfully without the benefits that come with being the Alabama quarterback.

Someone will take the chance on him working out. He could be a top-three pick. He could last well into the first. He has quite a broad range in terms of stock. And that’s OK. I like him and would be comfortable drafting him. I also embrace the risk factor of selecting a 5-10, 185lbs quarterback. But this game showed he has a magical quality to his game and this was a top performance.

Hooker deserves immense credit for the way he has played this year too. Tennessee has been a clown-show for years and they’ve finally returned to credibility. Hooker is a big part of that.

However, my thought that he’s probably a third or fourth round type with plus-backup potential hasn’t changed after watching this game.

Josh Heupel might look and sound like adult Bobby Hill is running a college football team but there’s no doubt he’s very good at his job. He has created an offense that is dynamic, well executed, attacks opponents and is capable of out-scoring anyone.

Hooker benefits from that but he also makes things tick with his skill-set. He is very good at throwing downfield which helps create those big shot-plays. He can execute when the play is there. The scheme doesn’t demand he run through progressions, read the defense at the LOS and adjust. When things are clicking and on-time — he’s adept at getting the job done.

However — he has almost a perfectly balanced ratio of great plays and ‘urgh’ plays. Even in this game.

For example, his first long touchdown was a beautifully placed pass in behind two flat-footed defenders. It’s not an overly challenging play to make — it was a quick play-action from the gun, one-read and throw downfield. Yet the velocity and timing was perfect. It was a very pretty touchdown. He’s had a fair few of those this year.

Off-setting this is the streaky nature of his intermediate throws and the massive inconsistency in his accuracy. He started off very well throwing over the middle with plenty of poise but things became muddled as the game went on.

He threw high on a short pass over the middle which was tipped into the air and nearly picked off. He had a wide open receiver with 12:44 left in third quarter after the defender fell over. Hooker somehow still overthrew him despite the ‘shooting fish in a barrel’ nature of the play. It should’ve been six.

He felt pressure with 3:15 left in the third quarter and threw a high, inaccurate pass that was intercepted. He was very fortunate not to throw what could’ve been a game-losing interception with just over three minutes to go. He delivered an underthrown pass, it was tipped and picked off then ran-back deep into Tennessee territory. Hooker was bailed out by a DPI in the end zone and the Vols scored on the next play.

Underthrown passes and throws that are just ‘off’ creep into his game too much. The gaudy numbers don’t indicate this but sadly, the tape does.

He also had a botched exchange leading to a fumble recovered for a touchdown.

Yet, again, you have to give him credit for the plays he did make and he had an incredible big-time throw at the end to set up the game-winning field goal.

I suspect teams will like him especially because he has good athleticism and the ability to move around, throw downfield and he is elevating his team with his play. Although my expectation is he won’t ultimately be a consistent NFL starter — it won’t be a shock either if someone falls for him, takes him early and it might even work out.

My guess is his pro-play might end up fluctuating just on a grander scale. In the NFL I could imagine a player capable of great quality but also highly frustrating moments. If I sound more negative than positive — let me stress I admire what he’s achieving and have enjoyed watching Tennessee this year. But I do want to be honest about his draft stock — which for me should be marked lower than the likes of Will Levis, C.J. Stroud and Young. And I don’t think he has the upside of Anthony Richardson — even though he is suffering plenty of growing pains at Florida.

Hooker benefitted from an incredible performance by receiver Jalen Hyatt. He had six receptions for 207 yards and five touchdowns. I’m looking forward to studying him closer but Alabama’s secondary was a hot mess.

Tyler Van Dyke is getting there

He still needs to transfer at the end of the season and go to Kentucky (or somewhere similar). But he had a good performance against Virginia Tech until Mario Cristobal started getting in the way again.

Miami came out and attacked the Hokies with their passing game. TVD took a wonderful downfield shot, he scored some pretty touchdowns and he was the focal point. It felt a lot like watching 2021 Van Dyke.

Yet having accumulated a handsome lead, Cristobal then reverted to type. Out came the ultra-conservative stuff again. They took their foot right off the gas and allowed Virginia Tech back into the game. They almost nicked it at the end.

TVD was forced to convert two huge 3rd and 8 players to seal the win — one with his arm and another as a runner. He flashed first round potential in this win.

I’m sorry though — Cristobal is awful. He seems obsessed with creating a certain type of team he simply doesn’t possess with Miami in year one. ‘We want to be physical’. ‘We want to run the ball’. “Let’s make every pass an extended hand-off’. Just put the ball in TVD’s hands and play up-tempo. The offense stinks when they don’t.

Van Dyke finished 29/46 passing for 351 yards and two scores with no turnovers. It’ll be interesting to see what he does at the end of the season.

Tanner McKee is…

Mike Glennon. That’s who he reminds me of. A lot of teams liked Glennon because he flashed a great arm to go with a slightly awkward, taller frame. McKee is very similar.

I thought he played well against Notre Dame and he continues to feature in an offense that doesn’t suit him. I think, like Glennon, he will have his admirers. I think he’ll go in the third round like Glennon did. And I think they’ll probably end up having similar careers.

Anthony Richardson makes magic happen

I know he’s inconsistent. I know sometimes he throws a 100mph fastball when touch is required. I know his touchdown/interception ratio sucks.

I also know there aren’t many quarterbacks capable of an 81-yard touchdown run and a 51-yard touchdown throw in the same game.

Richardson has superstar potential. He just needs time and development. It might never work out for him. He might always be a rough diamond. But what if it does work out? And wouldn’t you love to be the team who drafted him if it did?

Don’t be surprised if he does actually declare for the 2023 draft after all and goes a lot earlier than people think.

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Instant reaction: Seahawks beat Cardinals, move to 3-3

October 16, 2022 /

This wasn’t exactly what you’d call a clean game from either team. But it was a game the Seahawks thoroughly deserved to win.

There were some really positive moments. Kenneth Walker showed he’s perfectly suited to take over the lead role in the backfield. The two rookie cornerbacks combined to force a turnover. Tariq Woolen also had an interception for the fourth straight game — the first time that’s happened since you-know-who. It’s so immeasurably joyful to see a Seattle cornerback producing picks again, especially a young stud like this. The defense created pressure for the first time in a while (recording six sacks) and generally had a better showing.

It was also a bit of a stumbling and bumbling game by both teams.

I’m a bit worried about Kyler Murray. Not Kyler the player, Kyler the person. He looks miserable. After Arizona’s first drive, the sideline reporter noted he was being consoled by Zach Ertz. This is not the player I remember at Oklahoma. He looks a shadow of his former self on the field in terms of play and demeanour and I hope he has people in that organisation making sure he’s OK. Sometimes it’s not all about money, as we saw with Andrew Luck.

Murray was able to make some big plays with his legs but as a passer he looked really bad. Each of Arizona’s fourth down attempts were lame, unconvincing and sloppy. Murray just looked lost, on each occasion.

Not that he’s given any help by Kliff Kingsbury. It’s astonishing, really, that he received a handsome contract extension. His scheming appears basic and inadequate. Without Nuk Hopkins to provide a cure-all, the basic route combinations are being exposed. This isn’t the Big-12.

Geno Smith also struggled a fair bit more than he has recently. Arizona’s defense is tricky because they bring so much pressure. The O-line struggled to handle such a creative front and that didn’t help Smith. In fairness to Geno, he still did enough to deserve to be on the winning side.

You could argue it could’ve been a blowout with a cleaner game from Seattle. Yet at the same time, Arizona had the three fourth-down SNAFU’s in scoring position. They also had the Murray fumble deep in Seattle territory. But this was all somewhat countered by Michael Dickson’s strange decision (the second in as many weeks) to hold onto a punt and give away a special teams touchdown.

Overall a bit of a slop-fest with a few highlights — good ones — from Seattle.

I want to believe the defense has turned a corner but the Cardinals and Murray struggled so much, I’m remaining sceptical for now.

What it does show, however, is the Seahawks are going to be very capable of grinding out games like this against poor opponents. And that there are also worse teams than Seattle that will fill out the high picks in the 2023 draft.

I don’t expect the Broncos to be so bad that they end up picking unexpectedly high, leaving both teams with a similar final record and potentially giving the Seahawks two picks in the teens.

I’m going to spend a bit of time digesting that thought over the next few days and what it means for the future. I still think the long-term process is the more interesting conversation than any potential achievements in 2022.

Given 2023 is shaping up to be a top-heavy draft, I do wonder what it means. The top young QB’s are drifting further away. The defensive playmakers many crave aren’t readily available. It’ll make for an interesting discussion, although I’m not sure the conclusions will be particularly appealing.

Curtis Allen’s week six watchpoints (vs Arizona)

October 16, 2022 /

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. After the game today tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel

The Cardinals playing the Seahawks always invokes a strange kind of apprehension in me.  

This series is kind of a Bizarro World adventure, with the road team coming out ahead more often than not.

In the last seven seasons, the Cardinals are 5-2 in Seattle.  Conversely, the Seahawks are 5-1-1 in Glendale.  So, nothing is as it seems, and it really feels strange knowing the Seahawks can beat the Cardinals but not in front of their home crowd.

Even knowing the Hawks play well in Glendale is cold comfort.  The myriad of tragic lows experienced in that stadium, from catastrophic injuries to beloved players, a franchise-shattering play in the Super Bowl, to watching what we were fairly certain was Russell Wilson’s last game in a Seahawks uniform, all add up to very strong ‘won the battle but lost the war’ feelings.

As always, the Cardinals’ timing is impeccable.  The Seahawks followed up a dazzling offense/poor defense win with a dazzling offense/poor defense loss and we are all perplexed about the future of this team. 

Losing games gets the Seahawks closer to the top of the draft in 2023 but losing this way is unacceptable.  We are forced into big-picture thinking by this defense and asking questions about how they could possibly be this bad?  A sideline spat between Quandre Diggs and Jordyn Brooks might be the first sign of life that somebody on the team has noticed how poorly they are playing. 

Looking forward to the next great quarterback coming to Seattle in 2023 is exciting but the quarterback they have right now is one of the best NFL comeback stories in ages and we are all thrilled to be witnessing it.

Here come the Cardinals, with their good defense, their Mighty Mouse-Hollywood Brown duo and their own set of internal dramas going.  

They have failed to rocket out of the gate this year like the typical Kliff Kingsbury teams have in the past.  Last week they had a bizarre fourth-quarter sequence that culminated in a missed field goal as time expired to lose to the Eagles.  

Their offense has a strong air of stale predictability to it.  This after an offseason where the three principals (Murray, Kingsbury and GM Steve Keim) all signed very healthy extensions.

Both teams are 2-3 and at this point in the season have far more questions than answers.

So really, that is the biggest watch point.  Who is going to control their drama most effectively on Sunday?

It will take an effort from the Seahawks equal to their Week One game against Denver – a level we have not seen since – to come away with a win this week.

I am deviating from my standard practice for watch points a little this week.  Instead of narrowly specific points to watch, with how loosely both teams are playing it is hard to really build much of a narrative to follow.  This week’s points will be more of a collection of stream-of-consciousness thoughts that will likely factor into the game, if all these oddball x-factor things like questionable penalties, broken-tackle busted plays and odd coaching decisions do not get in the way.

Some Notes on the Offense vs Arizona’s Defense

The Cardinals come into this game with a very middling defense statistically so far this season.  However – since the 44-point drubbing they suffered at the hands of the Chiefs in Week One, they have been effective.

They are only allowing 19.75 points per game and 310 yards per game in their last four games – both are good figures considering they have played the Raiders, Rams, Panthers and Eagles.

With the way the Seahawks’ defense is playing, 20 points from the offense is not going to win this game.  They will have to find a way to score more than those four teams.

The good news is this offense matches up very nicely with the Cardinal defense.  There are several areas the Seahawks should be able to make some hay in this game.

The first advantage comes in the opening quarter.  Seattle is the #2 offense in the NFL in first quarter scoring, coming out hot with 8.2 points over the first five games.  Arizona’s defense?  The very last-place team in the NFL in the first quarter, allowing 7.6 points.  Not unlike last week, the Seahawks need to come out of the gate and take control of the scoreboard early on.  That can only help their defense.

One way they can do that is to keep using their tight ends liberally.  Why?  It is another Cardinal weak spot on defense the team is well-placed to exploit.  They are second-worst in the NFL in defending tight ends (who is the worst?  Don’t ask…ugh).  Every week so far this season they have given up an average of 6.4 catches for 78 yards and .4 touchdowns.  

The Seahawks?  Their tight ends on offense are averaging 6.6-71.4-1.  An average day for this offense should be easily achievable.  Do not be surprised if they surpass it easily, and we are talking about the trio’s excellent day as a nice game recap point.

One interesting battle to watch will be how Geno Smith and Shane Waldron handle Arizona’s blitzing.  Once again mad scientist Vance Joseph is sending extra rushers as often as anyone in the NFL, sending blitzers on an incredible 41.7% of plays.

Are they getting home?  No.  They only have recorded six sacks, good for the last place in the NFL.

But you need to look at pressure not just sacks right?  Sure.  They are middling at best, only getting pressure 23% of the time, good for 16th in the NFL.

Geno might be licking his chops.  When he has been blitzed this year, he is returning a 118 passer rating, 31% of his passes gain first downs and he has only been sacked twice.  Nor has he thrown an interception.

It should be noted that he has yet to face a team that is blitzing that heavily.  His numbers may not quite be that good Sunday, particularly with Joseph cooking up all kinds of exotic pre-snap looks and sending corners and safeties from all over the place.

Some Notes on the Defense vs the Arizona Offense

As usual, this is where the real challenge lies for this team.  Is there a chance this defense could stop mimicking pre-2022 Geno Smith and start mimicking 2022 Geno Smith?  Yes, sure.  But just like with Smith, we will need to see it – and see it for stretches – for us to believe it is really happening.

Here are some things Arizona does on offense that the Seahawks could work with on defense…

They are the worst first quarter scoring team in the NFL.  They have zero first quarter points in five games.  Zero.  No touchdowns, no field goals.  So, while the Seahawk offense is one of the best, the Cardinals take a whole quarter to get on track.  Here is hoping that continues this week.  A professionally embarrassed defense should come out of the gate raring to prove their competence and build some momentum, and opportunities to do that do not come any more gift-wrapped than this sputtering first quarter group.

I mentioned how they are predictable on offense.  In the past, they have started the season very well, taking teams by storm.  Yet, when the league starts to figure out what they are doing, they adjust and the Cardinals do not or cannot and the wheels start to fall off in the second half of the season.

This season so far though, they are 2-3 and have not played very well on offense.  Why not?  One of the reasons can be found in the patterns they have locked themselves into.

Let me illustrate with a quick chart on their pre-snap play setup and their post-snap choices.  You will clearly see that they have taken the variation out of their offense:

 

There are a few things going on here we need to work through.

First off, it is amazing how they have taken any of the guesswork out of their post-snap action this year, as you can see from the bottom portion of the chart.  They are only making token attempts to deceive the defense before revealing their true intentions.  By not needing to discern what is going on, defenders (particularly linebackers) are free to pin their ears back and straight up handle their assignments.

The top part of the chart is very interesting to me as well.  The Cardinals have always needed to work in shotgun a ton.  That is simply a function of Murray being short and needing the depth to read the field and work his scramble magic with his feet.  They have a small package of plays for when he lines up under center.

This year they have squeezed the margin even narrower though.  Murray sets up under center a miniscule 11% of the time, but when he does, 72% of the time the play is a run.  They are telegraphing their intentions more than they ever have.

The interior defensive line can take a key from that and know they do not need to penetrate way up field and rush the passer, but to clog the middle.  Kyler loves to take the snap in shotgun and just hand it to his running back and let him find a gap.  That is one downside of the shotgun.  The runner does not get a head of steam.  He must get the ball flat-footed and read the gaps.  If there is not a clear gap to run at, he has no momentum to just lower his head and push the pile forward for a yard or two.

The other element is their play choices.  Watching their first five games on offense, I cannot tell you how many times I witnessed these five offensive plays over and over and over again:

  • The running back screen
  • A seam route by Zach Ertz with a ‘sit down in the zone’ option
  • A one-on-one hitch or go-ball route counting on the WR to win his matchup
  • A wide receiver screen because the corner has come off the WR and the defense is protecting the deep pass with a two-high look
  • The Kyler Murray scramble to give his receivers time

True, those are five very different plays that attack different areas of the field.

However, it feels like the predictability of those plays can be used to your advantage if you have a plan in place, the personnel to make it work and a fired-up belief that you can have success.

First off – defending screen plays successfully is pure desire.  The first defender to the screen must know if he can knife through and get the runner, great.  But most of the time, his job is to occupy the lead blocker and shuttle the runner back to the middle of the field where help is coming from.  Secondly, the linebackers and defensive backs are important but the defensive linemen are critical in defending the screen.  They need to recognize the signs of a screen quickly (the OL releasing them for a free shot at the quarterback), read the flow and run down those backside lanes the runner will get to.

Watching the Eagles defend the screen against the Cardinals was a thing of beauty.  Fletcher Cox came steaming in and hit the runner with a lick more than once.  Poona Ford and Bryan Mone have both demonstrated downfield hustle in recent seasons.  They will be badly needed to accomplish that Sunday against the Cardinals, who have traditionally been one of the most screen-heavy teams in the NFL.

What else?  Kyler also has shown me something this year — if he has ‘his guy’ (usually Hollywood) one on one with the corner tight on him in a single-high safety deployed, he will frequently abandon the set pass play with its needed progressions and target him.  Conversely, if the corner is off his man, Kyler will just dump it to the receiver and let him get some YAC.  

Particularly if the receiver is lined up on his favorite side – the left side.

I think the Seahawks have two ways to successfully defend this:

— The Seahawks can occasionally dictate to Kyler what they want him to do with their presnap look.  Show him one look and then quickly adjust before the snap.  At worst you disrupt his processing.  At best he throws for a loss or an interception.

— Tariq Woolen can have a whale of a game Sunday.  He will get Hollywood Brown or A.J. Green a lot.  With his length and toughness, he can disrupt the receiver at the line of scrimmage and get a hand on the ball when Kyler throws it his way.  He may even be able to bait Kyler into throwing at him and pick another pass off.

Zach Ertz is a problem.  As you have probably figured out, the Seahawks are the worst team in the NFL in defending tight ends.  They will have to find a way to disrupt him.  Altering his routes is a real task, and that will likely fall on Ryan Neal or Josh Jones.  If they can re-route him though, Kyler’s safety valve will have a difficult day and that will force the offense out to the edges of the field where the sideline is an ally.

Kyler Murray’s in-pocket game is becoming increasingly based on rhythm.  His average pocket time so far this year before a throw or a scramble is 2.2 seconds, easily the lowest of his career.  The average depth of his throws is four yards, again easily the lowest of his career.

He is relying so much more on his screen game and his singularly talented receivers to win battles for him.  Gone are the days where he is either running the ball himself or scrambling around in the backfield playing schoolyard ball on 40-50% of plays.

If the Seahawks can play with him a bit, jam and otherwise re-route his receivers, they can force him to think on his feet and make some very poor decisions.

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