Nobody should panic if Kawann Short is the best defensive tackle available when the Seahawks are on the clock. He’d be a fine choice with the #25 pick.
The beauty of the Senior Bowl isn’t to sit and read countless differing opinions of the work outs or wax lyrical about performances in the game. It’s about noticing little qualities, taking on board information and then going to back to watch more tape. Which is exactly what I did after watching Short dominate during Saturday’s game.
Sometimes your initial impression can be wrong. It takes that second look to get a more accurate opinion of a player. My lasting impression during the 2012 season was an image of Kawann Short taking plays off against Ohio State. I’d read other people voice such concerns going into the game, and there it was on the tape. I watched further games and picked up on the occasional play where he’d engage and take a block without showing any real effort to progress. Whether he was gassed or whatever, he wasn’t playing with maximum effort. That lingered.
Yet I’m watching the Senior Bowl and here’s a guy who’s lost about 10-15lbs, looks refined and not as sloppy in the midriff. So I go back and watch six games (all of which you can see for yourself at the bottom of this article). I was wrong to concentrate too much on those plays taken off and it did cloud my judgement a bit. Crucially, what he does well is exactly what the Seahawks need to add to their defensive line.
At times it was impossible to block him 1v1, he needed a double team. Given the way Seattle’s defensive line operates with a LEO and three technique placed to the exaggerated right, it’s going to be very difficult to double up on Short even at the next level. Not even Sheldon Richardson flashes a comparable ability to get into the backfield.
He generally does a great job getting off blocks using nice hands and flashing great athleticism for his size. He’ll shoot a gap effectively and gets a nice quick burst off the snap. He’s shown decent ability on stunts to skip wide and attack from a different angle. You see the swim, club and spin moves — so he’ll be creative and keep an offensive lineman guessing. When he gets low and drives into his blocker he can flash a solid bull rush. Sometimes he gets too high and loses leverage but this is coachable.
When he was lined up as a three technique by Purdue, he had consistent success. He also played the one technique and nose. He’ll stack and shed at the line of scrimmage, he’s strong enough at the point to be effective against the run. Footwork is an underrated feature among tackles and he doesn’t take many wasted steps, he gets off the line and is moving quickly immediately. He can be crafty, often stopping as if beaten only to counter and explode again to deceive a blocker.
As you can see from the tape below, he’s capable of pursuing elusive quarterbacks to make plays (eg Denard Robinson). Out of all the tape I’ve watched this year, Short clearly had the most tackles for a loss among DT’s.
He’s been voted a team captain two years straight and hasn’t had any notable injuries so far. Apparently he opted not to declare last year after receiving just a third round grade from the draft committee. I highly doubt he’ll last until round three in April.
That’s not to say everything is positive. He looked bigger on tape than he did at the Senior Bowl so conditioning could be a problem. It’s nice to see he got in shape for the NFL scouts and it might not be a problem working within a pro-fitness programme. He looks better with the weight off and seemed to play even quicker.
Short has quite a lean lower body and you’d like to see him get bigger in terms of muscle mass. He’s going to need to drive with his legs and at the moment his top half is considerably bigger than the bottom.
Unlike Sheldon Richardson and Sharrif Floyd, the motor seems to stop running when the play moves away from his part of the field. Richardson almost turns into a linebacker when the play kicks out wide, tracking the ball carrier and often being the one to make the decisive tackle. Short, more often than not, shuts down and doesn’t make that same extra effort.
His ball location could be better at times. It’s not a major issue, but he sometimes makes the initial penetration and reads the play incorrectly — tackling a running back on a quarterback keeper or vice versa. It’s nowhere near as bad as Datone Jones for example, but it could still be an area of improvement.
You’d like to see more of a violent streak. He doesn’t tend to play ‘too nice’ like Sharrif Floyd, but he’s also the consummate pro. Usually that would be a major positive, but this is the three technique position. A little nasty here is generally a good thing.
The other issue is age. He’ll turn 24 this Saturday. In comparison, Floyd isn’t even 21 until late May. The Seahawks took a chance on a 25-year-old rookie in Bruce Irvin last year, but you have to get an impact from a player giving up 2-3 years on other rookies. There’s quite a few ‘older’ rookies this year — Sylvester Williams (25), Star Lotulelei (24), Margus Hunt (26) will all be in their mid-20’s. I suppose it could be worse, they could be Brandon Weeden (29). Upside and room to grow is understandably limited among older players entering the league.
Kawann Short is going to be a solid any-down tackle who offers an interior pass rush in base while maintaining strong run support. You might need to keep an eye on his weight and manage his snaps, but most teams do that with their defensive tackles anyway. In many ways he compares favourably to Randy Starks — a free agent who could be on Seattle’s radar in March. The Seahawks need someone who can play first and second down and collapse the pocket. While Short’s upside isn’t as high as Sharrif Floyd’s and he lacks the ‘born to be a three technique’ nature of Sheldon Richardson, he’s probably the next best fit.
The Seahawks could do a lot worse than draft Short in the first round. Check out the tape below. Tomorrow I’m going to do a piece on a player they could target if they opt to draft a defensive tackle in the middle rounds. If you’re looking for a player who could be the next Geno Atkins, Penn State’s Jordan Hill could be the guy.
E.J. Manuel had a good day, but not as good as Kawann Short or Ziggy Ansah
The Senior Bowl always tends to be a perfect storm for lineman on both sides of the ball. They can just get at it, try to make plays whether blocking or rushing. It’s harder for the skill players to shine in games like this. A cluster of defensive lineman over the years have boosted their stock at this event and not really done anything at the next level. That’s the disclaimer out of the way.
Having said all of that, Kawann Short and Ziggy Ansah were the two most impressive players on the field today, with Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson closely behind.
Everything that is good about Short was on display in Mobile. He consistently knifed through gaps, penetrated into the backfield and caused constant problems for the offensive line. He was the only player to beat Kentucky guard Larry Warford (who was also very impressive overall) and it just seemed like you were noticing him every snap. Short had two near sacks to end the first half, combined with Sylvester Williams to blow up the interior on another play and started the third quarter by sweeping past Warford to drop the running back for a loss.
With 2:31 left in the third he drove his blocker five yards into the backfield, collapsing the pocket and forcing Tyler Wilson to throw the ball into the ground to avoid the sack. There was no doubt in my mind who was the most impressive player out there today. Short turned up to play.
A lot of scouts will put on the Purdue tape over the next week or two to go back and review his performance in 2012. They’ll see flashes of brilliance like this, but they’ll also see a lot of mediocre snaps. Short has enough pure talent to be right up there with the Sheldon Richardson’s and Sharrif Floyd’s of this class. But he does have a lot of mediocre tape to go with the good stuff.
Playing like today he’ll have a shot to be a first round pick. His challenge will be to convince teams that he can play with a high motor. One thing I noticed is he looked a lot slimmer in Mobile and weighed just 308lbs. ESPN had him listed at 325lbs going into the 2012 season. If he’s working hard on conditioning that’s a great start because he always seemed to play heavy while carrying a little extra timber. Slimming down certainly had a positive impact today and he looked the part of an active three-technique.
If the Seahawks aren’t able to address their lack of interior pass rush in free agency, on this display Short has to be an option early in the draft. I’ve included two pieces of game tape at the bottom of this piece.
Ansah showed that despite all of his inexperience he’ll still be an intriguing player to NFL teams. At times he barely looks like he knows what he’s doing out there. When he locks into an edge rush and engages the tackle, he almost panics and doesn’t know how to counter. Yet when he doesn’t have to think too much and can just flow to the ball, he shows off supreme athleticism not matched by a defensive lineman since Jason Pierre-Paul entered the league.
Today he was all over the field, recording 1.5 sacks, deflecting passes and making multiple tackles. He was involved from start to finish. On one play he managed to get away from a block that appeared to have him beat, only to race after and chase down Denard Robinson. He abused whichever poor tight end kept getting lined up against him on the right side. Late in the third quarter he avoided a low block to explode into the backfield and force a sack/fumble. He always plays stout against the run and today was no different — he consistently held his ground and couldn’t be moved.
I’m not sure if Ansah is ever going to be a great sack-artist who really threatens off the edge. For that reason he might be better off lining up in the 3-4 at the five technique — this will minimise his need to get constant pressure and enhance his strong ability against the run. Any 4-3 team looking to invest in him should probably already have a proven, effective edge rusher on the roster — allowing Ansah to act as the left end.
Some people had questioned what all the hype was about after a mediocre practise performance earlier in the week, but Ansah showed there’s a lot of raw potential to work with here.
Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson look ideally suited to be franchise left tackles. Fisher has the classic combination of skills for the role and should be a top-ten pick. He’s good enough to make a team like Arizona consider passing on the quarterbacks early to ensure they get him at #7. Johnson is a pure technician who looks incredibly polished. He doesn’t have quite the natural ability of Luke Joeckel or Fisher, but he’s more than capable of slotting in as a rookie and protecting the quarterback. He’d be a wise pick for San Diego at #11 if the other two tackles are off the board.
It’s hard to see where a third guard falls into the first round mix and Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper will be the first two to go. Larry Warford plays with great leverage, locks onto a defensive lineman and wins his match-up and is a big-time force in the run-game. Teams looking for interior offensive line help early in round two or even the last handful of picks in round one are going to get a very solid football player. If it wasn’t for Warmack and Cooper, he may go even earlier.
In terms of the quarterbacks it was a mixed bag. Mike Glennon put some nice plays together in the second half including two terrific back-to-back throws into tight windows. He also missed a lot of easy passes in the first half as he struggled with accuracy. I like Glennon and there’s no reason why he can’t be a productive starter at the next level. However, he’s going to need some time to find a rhythm and patience from whoever drafts him. I doubt he’ll last much longer than the early second.
Ryan Nassib was pretty hopeless overall and did nothing to help his stock. He threw an ill-advised interception into thick coverage (what did he see??) and was the victim of the Ansah sack/fumble. For all his physical potential (strong fast-ball, plenty of athletic quality and mobility) he just looks like a poor man’s version of Jake Locker. Kind of like Locker without all the X-Factor plays. He’s always been a mid-round pick at best for me.
E.J. Manuel had a better performance, completing some nice throws and leading the south roster to all 21 of their points. He’s not a natural passer of the ball — he’s more of an athlete playing quarterback than an athletic quarterback. However, give me a player like this over a player like Nassib any time. Manuel showed some nice composure to find tight end Michael Williams in the back of the end zone for a score despite having Margus Hunt charging into his line of vision. I never really enjoyed watching Manuel at Florida State — he dominated bad opponents but never really looked the part against a good defense. There’s every chance he’ll be a round two pick due to his athletic potential. I think he’s a solid round three-type who would make a good back-up if nothing else.
Tyler Wilson was neat and tidy completing a lot of short passes. He missed badly on an under-thrown lob for the endzone that should’ve been picked by Jordan Poyer. It was a little bit concerning given he doesn’t have the greatest arm strength and it should’ve been a touchdown. He didn’t blow anyone away today.
Landry Jones did everything you’d expect. No mobility, completely panics at even the slightest hint of pressure, a complete lack of dynamism. On a 4th and 8 call in the first half he felt pressure and checked down to a covered receiver at the line of scrimmage. He heard about that on the sideline after. There is just absolutely nothing about his game that makes you want to believe he can be a starter in the NFL. Remember last year when even after a rank bad season he was still being touted as a possible first round pick? Nothing has changed since then. Except nobody refers to him as a first round talent any more. He took a sack to end the first half and you can just tee-off on him — blitz away because you know it’ll work. I wouldn’t even spend a 4th rounder on his services.
None of the quarterbacks did enough to really enhance their stock, which makes this a great week for Matt Barkley and Geno Smith. Barkley didn’t attend as he recovers from a shoulder injury, while Smith just decided not to show. They remain the two quarterbacks most likely to go early in the 2013 draft.
Sylvester Williams had some nice plays and generally played well alongside the dominating Kawann Short. He’s not quite as refined as the other defensive tackles expected to go early and could do with the same kind of conditioning Short has gone through. He can afford to lose a few pounds to increase his quickness and therefore his production.
Datone Jones played defensive end and had some nice pressures. He’s not an explosive edge rusher and he has more success working back inside. The fact he played nearly the entire game at end emphasises how a lack of fit will hurt his stock — no matter how sharp he looks on tape. He’ll be really good value if he’s around in the middle rounds as a Jason Jones type versatile lineman.
Margus Hunt was a big disappointment. He had a hard time even against right tackle Jordan Mills. There were a couple of times when he broke into the backfield, but he really needed to show more. There’s going to be concerns that he’ll struggle with leverage at 6-8 and while he has undoubted physical quality he also has to show a level of readiness considering he’s going to be a 26-year-old rookie. We saw none of that today — he looked inexperienced, lacked explosion and for the most part he was handled easily. You have to feel this week is going to hurt his stock a bit. There was none of the crazy pass-rushing quality we saw in the Hawaii Bowl.
Linebacker Zaviar Gooden had an easy interception of Zac Dysert but flashed great speed and coverage skills. He made me want to go back and watch more Missouri tape. Likewise Sio Moore also warrants some greater attention.
Duke receiver Connor Vernon caught everything, looked good adjusting to some poorly thrown passes and was Mr. Consistent on the day. He lacks game changing physical skills, he doesn’t look particularly strong or fast. His stock is pretty limited but he should get a chance in camp to try and win a job.
Jonathan Cyprien — a safety from Florida International — looks like the real deal. Bacarri Rambo had an interception as per usual. Sudden first-round lock Desmond Tufant was avoided for the most part.
I watched some Detroit Lions tape yesterday to look at free agent pass rusher Cliff Avril. He’s an effective edge rusher, with great balance and lean and when he’s lined up against a right tackle he causes a lot of problems. But there’s one thing that kept jumping off the screen. Something that smacks you in the face it’s so obvious.
Interior pressure collapsing the pocket. Time and time again.
It was 2011 tape, Ndamukong Suh’s weakest season statistically. He had four sacks in 14 games that year. Yet it was clear as day what an effective force he continued to be. On almost all of Avril’s 2011 sacks, Suh crashes the pocket preventing the quarterback from stepping up — essentially making him a sitting duck for the speed rush off the edge. The Seahawks in 2012 created almost no push up the middle and never truly felt the maximum benefit of a defensive end (Chris Clemons) who — like Avril — can lean, accelerate and finish.
Nobody should doubt that Clemons is one of the most underrated players in the league. Three straight seasons with double digit sacks as the only pure pass-rusher in Seattle’s base defense is incredible. He’ll be a huge miss if he starts 2013 on the PUP as he recovers from ACL surgery.
Finding a defensive tackle who can be productive on the stat sheet isn’t imperative. The Seahawks just need someone who can make life easier for whoever’s playing the edge.
Of course it’s very easy to point to Suh and say, “just get someone who does that.” He’s a unique and gifted player. The type you need to be picking in the top two or three to get any shot at. You can’t expect to find the next Ndamukong Suh with the #25 pick. The three-technique is one of the single hardest positions to judge based on college tape. It’s such a rare blend of speed and relative size, plus burst and aggression. Without just going out and throwing money at a proven commodity, it’s a difficult hole to fill.
During my time writing this blog only one prospective three-technique has performed so well on tape, there was no doubt his skill set would translate to the next level. That was Suh. Most of the defensive tackle videos I’ve watched since have been mediocre or incomplete. You’re almost always left wanting more — greater strength against the run, quicker burst, more size, a nasty streak. It is so hard to find the ‘ideal’.
Players like Nick Fairley and Sheldon Richardson come close, but even they had some flaws in college. It’s almost like you have to accept some rough edges. It might be a pick based more on potential, frame and athleticism rather than production and tape. And then you ask yourself — can this player be Geno Atkins? Or will he be just another bust among many?
I wanted to do a mock this week where the Seahawks draft a defensive tackle in round one. And it really came down to two players.
Datone Jones — more than anyone it seems — is having a great Senior Bowl. He’s 6-4 and 280lbs, played everywhere along UCLA’s defensive line and registered 6.5 sacks in 2012. He played nose tackle, three technique, power end, five technique. He did it all. ESPN’s scouting trio of McShay/Wiedl/Muench noted how impressive he’s been in Mobile so far:
“Jones was the only guy on Tuesday who beat CMU OT Eric Fisher in a one-on-one drill, and he did it with an outside-in move. Fisher usually protects that pretty well, and Fisher stoned Texas’ Alex Okafor on a similar move earlier in practice.”
Jones was the most consistently disruptive defensive lineman on the field. He’s off to a good start and his performance here is going to send us back to watch more tape of his 2012 season.”
This was just one of many positive reviews, so I looked at a few UCLA games from last season. Jones definitely stands out as a penetrative force. He has a knack of getting into the backfield, flashes nice burst and an effective swim/club move. Despite not being the biggest lineman he doesn’t get destroyed against the run. You start to wonder if he could work his way into becoming a disruptive three-technique.
The big concern is going to be his size against bigger, more physical lineman. He could be a liability against the run at the next level. Whenever you’re talking about a 280lbs player starting inside, it’s a concern. However, the Seahawks have been at least willing to give Greg Scruggs (285lbs) some snaps in that position. If you’re willing to accept he’s going to get blown up sometimes, you could end up with a pretty good pass rusher.
He needs to learn to finish — often he doesn’t make best use of his ability to live in the backfield, either failing to track the play or just not executing. I’ve included tape above of his performance against Stanford in the PAC-12 title game.
Pete Carroll recruited Jones at USC so he’ll know about his potential. It might be a stretch to think he could jump onto Seattle’s first round radar, but stranger things have happened. A strong Senior Bowl is aiding his cause.
He just gets edged out this week by Florida’s Sharriff Floyd. I talked about him in greater detail on Monday and although he’s divided opinion somewhat on this blog, I do think he’ll receive some consideration. I went back and looked at some Gators tape from 2011 to watch Jaye Howard again — and the difference between Howard and Floyd was tangible. We’re talking about a whole different level of athlete. Floyd’s only scratched the surface of his potential so far. I still think he might be best suited to the five technique but there’s no doubting he has some untapped potential as a pass rusher.
The Seahawks know more about this guy than anyone in the NFL given Dan Quinn’s time in Florida and Pete Carroll’s background recruiting him for USC. Nobody will be left wondering about this particular prospect if they pass. If you want to watch his two-sack performance against Louisville (full game) click here.
Note — I have only one quarterback in round one this week. However, I think as many as three or four could go on day one. We could see teams trading up into the late first. I don’t include trades in my mocks — if I did — you’d see four quarterbacks in the top-32. Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, Geno Smith and Mike Glennon. A lot of people want to tell you this is a bad year for the position. It isn’t a bad year. It’s just not an Andrew Luck/Robert Griffin III year.
Note 2 — This tweet from Daniel Jeremiah suggests today’s projection might be short lived…
One junior player generating a ton of buzz is Florida DT Sharrif Floyd. Had one high ranking exec guarantee he’d go top 10.
#1 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
I’m going to settle on this pick for the time being. Kansas City needs a quarterback. Barkley should be the first to go.
#2 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
Gus Bradley needs a pass rusher and Werner could be the choice after a 13.5-sack season.
#3 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
Both of Oakland’s starting defensive tackles are free agents. They had the second worst pass rush in the NFL behind Jacksonville.
#4 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
Chip Kelly needs to rebuild Philly’s offensive line.
#5 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M)
The Lions could use an edge rusher, especially if they lose Cliff Avril. Moore had 12.5 sacks in the SEC this year.
#6 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
Don’t fight the board. The Browns have bigger needs but Warmack is immense.
#7 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan)
They’ll need to really distrust the QB class to do this. But they DO need a left tackle.
#8 Alec Ogeltree (LB, Georgia)
Ogletree might have the biggest upside in the entire draft.
#9 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
Get Revis back, plug in a speedy pass rusher and New York’s defense will be scary. In a good way. Unlike the offense.
#11 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
They need to draft a left tackle.
#12 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
The X-Factor player of this draft.
#13 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
The complete cornerback. This would be a steal.
#14 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
Nice size with an effective swim move and burst.
#15 Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU)
Lot’s of upside but is he enough of a threat rushing the edge?
#16 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
Out of all the safety’s in this class, Vaccaro is getting talked up the most. He’s a solid football player.
#17 Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
This could be their biggest need.
#18 Barrett Jones (C, Alabama)
It’s a reach, but Dallas needs to fix their offensive line. And it starts with the center.
#19 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
New York should skip to the podium if this happens.
#20 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
Terrific tight end prospect. Could go even earlier.
#21 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
A possible replacement for Michael Johnson who could depart?
#22 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
Will they switch to the 3-4 if they appoint Rob Ryan? If so, plug in a nose tackle to take up blockers for Long, Quinn and Brockers.
#23 Travis Frederick (C, Wisconsin)
Big body, intelligent player and looks made for a man-blocking scheme.
#24 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
DeAndre Hopkins is a fantastic receiver. Simple as that.
#25 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
Supreme athletic potential, has history with both Pete Carroll (recruiting) and Dan Quinn (coaching).
#26 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
His best fit in my opinion is at 3-4 end.
#27 Jonathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
I’m not a fan. He’s just a big body. I guess that works as a nose tackle.
#28 Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
After that playoff defeat, surely the secondary has to be a target area for improvement?
#29 Matt Elam (S, Florida)
They also need to upgrade that secondary.
#30 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia)
The spinal stenosis issue will need to be tested thoroughly.
#31 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
Tough shoes to fill, but the Ravens often look for value in round one.
#32 Datone Jones (DE, UCLA)
He’s a fast riser and dynamic pass rusher. Could go earlier than this.
Second round
#33 Jacksonville – Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
#34 Kansas City – Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
#35 Philadelphia – Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia)
#36 Detroit – Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
#37 Cincinnati – Stepfan Taylor (RB, Stanford)
#38 Arizona – Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas)
#39 New York Jets – Mike Glennon (QB, NC State)
#40 Tennessee – D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
#41 Buffalo – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
#42 Miami – Margus Hunt (DE, SMU)
#43 Tampa Bay – Justin Pugh (T, Syracuse)
#44 Carolina – Logan Ryan (CB, Rutgers)
#45 San Diego – Terrance Williams (WR, Baylor)
#46 St. Louis – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#47 Dallas – Alex Okafor (DE, Texas)
#48 Pittsburgh – John Simon (DE, Ohio State)
#49 New York Giants – Sam Montgomery (DE, LSU)
#50 Chicago – Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia)
#51 Washington – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#52 Minnesota – Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
#53 Baltimore – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#54 Cincinnati – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#55 Seattle – Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#56 Green Bay – Giovanni Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#57 Miami – Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
#58 Houston – Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State)
#59 San Francisco – Jordan Poyer (CB, Oregon State)
#60 New England – Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
#61 Atlanta – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#62 Denver – Larry Warford (G, Kentucky)
The Seahawks appeared to be sending scouts to Rutgers on a fairly frequent basis this season. Chris Steuber — a draft analyst formerly of Fox Sports — noted Seattle’s attendance on several occasions.
Initially I presumed they were keeping tabs on massive receiver Brandon Coleman. That presumption was probably incorrect. There’s every chance they were keeping a closer eye on linebacker Khaseem Greene.
The Seahawks don’t blitz a lot and rely on a front four to create pressure (with mixed results in 2012). Pete Carroll wants turnovers — and the best way to do this is to create pressure in a base formation allowing your linebackers and defensive backs the chance to make plays. Don’t give up big yardage on early downs. Force teams to throw and therefore make mistakes.
A lot of the time Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright and Leroy Hill were asked to react to the play, use their instincts and swarm to the ball. There wasn’t much pass rush responsibility on the linebackers last year and it showed — they had only 4.5 combined sacks between them. Mobility, quick reactions, finishing ability and coverage skills appear to be much more important than how well they get to the quarterback.
For those reasons, Khaseem Greene is a likely target in the 2013 draft.
He’s a converted safety without ideal size (6-0, 236lbs). He didn’t switch to linebacker until 2011 and he still flashes some of that safety speed whether it’s running sideline-to-sideline or sifting through traffic to make a play in the backfield. Greene has a real nose for the ball and just seems to make sound judgements most of the time — knowing when to attack and when to sit in coverage. He’s extremely reactive.
Some teams will be put off by the way he approaches the line of scrimmage. I’m tempted to say he’s ‘delicate’ taking on blockers — he just doesn’t show a great deal of vigour or desire to get involved. He gets engulfed by physically superior lineman, he never really engages and doesn’t have a counter. If you were asking him to play a lot up at the line, you’d be concerned. He’ll be a non-factor most of the time in those situations. And it does limit his stock quite a bit.
He also lacks the explosive range we’ve seen from some other prospective WILL candidates in this draft class. Alec Ogletree is another converted safety and a likely top-15 pick — I’ve not seen a linebacker drop 20-25 yards and pick off a deep ball before like he did against Ole Miss this season. Greene isn’t going to be doing anything like that and he also compares poorly against a player like Arthur Brown, who’s quicker and covers ground better, but is also undersized.
However, there’s no doubting he can cover and Greene’s ability to make consistently good decisions on the field gives him an edge.
Seattle’s use of the WILL is perfectly suited to avoid having to do too much at the LOS. It’s a nice fit for Greene. It’ll allow him read the plays, stay in coverage and let his instincts to do the work. He’s better at letting a play develop, getting through the bodies to sniff out a screen or grab the ball carrier. He has the closing burst to execute and make plays. But he has to stay clean.
Greene’s not such a great athlete that you’d feel obliged to keep him on the field in nickel situations. He could be a solid two-down linebacker though, taking away the kind of inside routes that killed this team in some key 2012 losses. He’s incredibly aware of underneath coverage and excels here. While improving the pass rush is key for the Seahawks this off-season, they also have to find a way to stop getting beat by slot receivers and underneath routes. Matt Stafford, Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill had a field day in that regard. Death by checkdown.
His tackling form is generally good — although as is the norm for the modern day linebacker or defensive back, he sometimes leaves the ground to go for the big hit and it’ll lead to the odd missed tackle. He has solid body control and doesn’t get twisted around or caught off-guard. He rarely loses balance.
Greene’s a fifth year senior with a metal plate in his leg following a nasty broken ankle in 2011. Despite a terrific résumé during his time in college, I just have a feeling teams are going to look beyond Greene. And the Seahawks or another like-minded franchise will take advantage. He’s the kind of player you can just imagine John Schneider and Pete Carroll getting in round three and turning into an instant impact starter.
Although there haven’t been many candidates for this honour, he’s been touted by the Rutgers media as the greatest defensive player in school history. His response to that suggestion? “I just want them to remember me as a great guy, great leader and a great team mate.” It all sounds very familiar. He was a big time leader for the Scarlet Knights during the last two years.
He added some weight prior to the 2012 season and at times during the season it appeared he was struggling to adjust. It’s tough to go from around 220-225lbs then suddenly work at 10-15lbs heavier even though you’re still required to flash mobility and range. By the end of the year he’d got to grips with this and his bowl game performance against Virginia Tech (see above) was impressive.
Look at the way he recognises the screen at 2:57, doesn’t react too quickly and swarms to the ball. It’s a nice hit too, jolting the ball-carrier as he hits the turf. At 6:28 he makes a nice drop on a blitz look, taking away Logan Thomas’ apparent second read and forcing a bad throw. At 6:59 he dips in-side from a starting position on the left edge, avoids the blockers and makes a nice play to get the quarterback out of the pocket (Thomas still manages to break contain, but it was a good play by Greene). He times his blitzes very well, looking silky smooth attacking the line and judging the snap count perfectly. If he avoids contact, the quarterback’s in trouble. And then of course there’s the first play on the tape — a forced fumble in the end zone which he recovers for a touchdown.
There’s also a lot of snaps on that video where he’s ineffective — getting blocked or just inconsequential to the play. We’re not talking about a can’t miss athlete here that’s going to garner a lot of hype in the first two rounds. He’s pretty scheme specific and fortunately for the Seahawks, he’d look good on their defense. It’ll be interesting to see how he runs at the combine because Carroll is looking for speed at the WILL — it’s why he’s been keen to force Malcolm Smith onto the field in place of Leroy Hill. Smith could get the opportunity to win the job full time in 2013.
Drafting a linebacker still remains a distinct possibility. Greene is one to keep monitoring. At this stage I think it’s most likely they’ll target the defensive line and a pass catcher with the first two picks (unless an Ogletree or Brown is on the board at #25) but Greene would be a nice fit for this team at any stage beyond the first two rounds if he’s still available.
Note – thanks to JMPasq for supplying the game tape as per usual
There are so many contrasting opinions from the Senior Bowl — making it almost impossible to know who’s performing well or not. A lot of tweets I’ve noticed over the last 24-48 hours seem to be heavily influenced by preconceptions and favourites.
On Hunt: “(He is) just what you’re looking for in a 5-technique (3-4 defensive end) in terms of size, potential and length. He’s disruptive with his strength and long arms. Even when he’s not making plays he can cause havoc, but you worry about the lack of suddenness in terms of his first step and change-of-direction ability. He lacked suddenness on Tuesday. He hasn’t shown up a lot in the limited sample size we have so far, and we’ll keep an eye on this raw prospect going forward to see what he can do.”
On Williams: “(He) was underwhelming in Tuesday’s practice. Williams did well bending the edge and with his body control, and he has explosive qualities to be a good 3-technique in the NFL, but he was neutralized every time we watched him. There were times he flashed his quickness, but he was most effective with his swim moves and you can’t consistently rely on those in the NFL, because offensive linemen will tenderize your ribs. He didn’t make a lot of big plays on Tuesday.”
McShay was also critical of Purdue’s Kawann Short, claiming he took plays off during team drills. “On one play, it almost seemed as if he had a gentleman’s agreement with (Ricky) Wagner, who steered Short inside easily.” This has been a criticism labelled at Short several times during his college career.
They reserved a more positive review for the subject of today’s main piece — Khaseem Greene — stating he had the best day among linebackers. “He jumped an underneath route he shouldn’t have during seven-on-sevens, but otherwise showed great instincts. Greene was always around the ball on run plays, and it was clear he was reacting more quickly than the other linebackers on the field. He also had a nice fumble recovery and matched up one-on-one with Barner in coverage.”
On Margus Hunt: “Looks the part and flashed ability yet at times was easily handled by opponents. Needs to really fine tune and polish his game.”
On Alex Okafor: “Like his game and motor. Uses all his assets to their maximum yet not a great athlete.”
On Sylvester Williams: “Had a lot of good moments today. Fires off the snap, showed good power in his lower body and got a lot of push up the field. Must do a better job using his hands and protecting himself.”
On Markus Wheaton: “Really like what Wheaton showed today. Quick, fast and consistent. Fast off the line, ran exceptional routes and caught the ball very well. Did struggle handling jams at the line.”
I’ve long suspected that if Seattle cannot trade Flynn, they’d release him. Aside from the teams likely desire to find a back-up more akin to Russell Wilson’s physical skill-set, they don’t need to be paying a back-up quarterback around $5-7m in 2013. I believe they can make a saving of around £3m by cutting him this year — and that’s crucial money whether you want to invest in free agency this off-season or push unused cap space into next year when key players begin to hit free agency.
A lot of people would frown at such a move, but then I think Flynn is pretty overrated. Apart from there being better ways to spend his salary, it also makes little sense having a dynamic, Pro-Bowl quarterback on your roster earning over seven-times less than the back-up earns.
Time for this weeks mock. And before we start, read this. It’ll explain why Manti Te’o isn’t included. If you’ve missed the news, it’s probably the weirdest story you’ll ever read about a Heisman finalist. Or any football player. Ever.
We now know the Seahawks will pick 25th overall. We also know Pete Carroll wants to improve the pass rush. Interestingly, John Schneider appeared on ESPN 710 this morning and chipped in with some thoughts of his own. We’ll go into this in more detail tomorrow, but here are the highlights:
– Schneider mentioned it was a superior group of receivers compared to last years draft
– He talked up the offensive line talent at the top of the first round
– He also mentioned that there were some ‘unique’ defensive lineman available
– Schneider says he finds the crop of junior linebackers ‘impressive’
Like I said, we’ll go into this more tomorrow. I did find the receiver comment interesting given the team avoided the position last year. Depending on how the board shapes up, I think we’ll see a pass catcher taken within the first 2-3 rounds.
He’s absolutely right to talk up the offensive line talent. Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper could all be top-15 picks. It could’ve been an even better class had the likes of Jake Matthews and Taylor Lewan declared.
The word ‘unique’ intrigues me when he refers to the pass rushers. The Seahawks have drafted ‘unique’ players before. Could he be referring to guys like Margus Hunt, Ezekiel Ansah and Dion Jordan who are a little unorthodox?
As for the junior linebackers — there’s only four (unless he counts pass rushing OLB’s). Alec Ogletree, Kevin Minter, Jelani Jenkins and Tom Wort were the only four pure linebackers to turn pro. You have to believe this team would love a shot at Ogletree.
For this weeks mock I have to go with a defensive lineman. Was there any choice after everything that’s been said over the last few days? I considered John Simon (DE, Ohio State), Alex Okafor (DE, Texas) and Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida). Then I remembered what we’re dealing with here. John Schneider says there are ‘unique’ pass rushers available. This is a team that consistently thinks outside of the box. And I thought, why not?
Why not just put Margus Hunt with the Seahawks this week?
He’s unorthodox. He’s 6-8, 275lbs and he throws a discus. He’s Estonian. He’s also unlike any player I’ve watched before. His speed, height and weight combination is unnatural and unmatched. He’s one of the biggest physical freaks you’ll find anywhere in the world. And for all of those reasons, he’s possibly one of the most Carroll-y, Schneider-y draft picks we’ll ever find.
You can’t get anymore outside of the box than Margus Hunt. If he was 22-years-old with three years experience at a top programme he’d be a contender to go first overall. Because he’s coming to the NFL via Estonia, a cancelled SMU track and field programme and a last minute football scholarship, his stock is slightly different. Conventional wisdom tells you this is a guy who’ll be 26 in July with limited experience. The Seahawks don’t deal in conventional wisdom.
If Mike Holmgren and Tom Heckert are willing to draft a 29-year-old rookie quarterback in the late first round, why wouldn’t a team crying out for a pass rusher consider this guy in a similar range? Carroll and Schneider drafted Bruce Irvin a year ago and he turned 25 during his rookie season. That’s a whole one years difference.
He’s got the upper body strength, the ideal frame, the speed off the edge, the ability to beat a blocker with good hands. He struggles with leverage which is no surprise at 6-8. That’s something you have to live with. For a team that wants to be bigger, faster and stronger than anybody else – he fits the bill. And he’ll get to the quarterback.
Really the age thing isn’t so much a concern if he can have an impact quickly. That’s going to be the defining judgement here. For a team with Super Bowl ambitions (this team has come a long way) it doesn’t matter how old you are. It’s about finding a way to go that little bit further. Winning a Championship. He’s not going to be a ten-year starter. He’ll probably max out with a 6-year career. That’s still six potential Super Bowl runs where you have a legitimate, freak of nature pass rusher.
There are more orthodox players available, but that doesn’t seem to be how this team thinks. Where would he line up? He could start at defensive end if Chris Clemons goes on the PUP list. He can line up opposite Clemons in some balanced four-man fronts. He could line up inside like Jason Jones.
Coincide a pick like this with a free agent acquisition (Randy Starks, Henry Melton, Desmond Bryant) and suddenly this situation looks a little brighter. Margus Hunt might be part of the answer to Seattle’s problems with the pass rush. I’ve included his game tape against Fresno State at the top of this piece.
In terms of the mock draft on the whole, I’ve tried to mix things up a bit this week. I wanted to do a projection that represented two things:
1. The Kansas City Chiefs not taking a quarterback with the #1 pick
2. No early rush on quarterbacks
The position is so important that I expect the best of the group to go early. However, there are a lot of contradicting views here. And what if those views are right? There are so many noises coming out of the league that there won’t be an early rush on the position. I guess anything could happen this year. This is the first draft I’ve covered without a really obvious prospect who’s going to go first overall. It’s a unique. And I don’t want to do the same mock every week.
First round
#1 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
This would be something of a sideways step, replacing Branden Albert. But it’s a possibility if they don’t like the QB’s enough.
#2 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
The Jaguars need a pass rusher and Werner could be the choice after a 13.5-sack season.
#3 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
Both of Oakland’s starting defensive tackles are free agents. They had the second worst pass rush in the NFL behind Jacksonville.
#4 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
Why not? He’s good enough. Chip Kelly might be more ‘pro-style’ than people think.
#5 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M)
The Lions could use an edge rusher. Moore had 12.5 sacks in the SEC this year.
#6 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia)
Jones has top-five talent but the spinal stenosis issue will really linger. He’ll need to be cleared to go this early.
#7 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan)
Like Kansas City, they’ll need to really distrust the QB class to do this. But they DO need a left tackle.
#8 Alec Ogeltree (LB, Georgia)
Ogletree might have the most upside in the entire draft.
#9 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
Get Revis back, plug in a speedy pass rusher and New York’s defense will be scary. In a good way. Unlike the offense.
#10 Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU)
He could be a combine star.
#11 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
They need to take a left tackle.
#12 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
The X-Factor player of this draft.
#13 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
The complete cornerback. This would be a steal.
#14 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
Pure three-technique. This would be a steal.
#15 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
Jordan can make some money at the combine, so he needs to get healthy.
#16 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
Out of all the safety’s in this class, Vaccaro is getting talked up the most. He’s a solid football player.
#17 Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
I’m not a fan of Rhodes, but big physical corners are the en vouge thing.
#18 Barrett Jones (C, Alabama)
It’s a big reach, but Dallas need to fix their offensive line. And it starts with the center.
#19 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
New York should skip to the podium if this happens.
#20 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
Terrific tight end prospect. Could go even earlier.
#21 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
This guy is legit. A brilliant linebacker prospect.
#22 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
Will they switch to the 3-4 if they appoint Rob Ryan? If so, plug in a nose tackle to take up blockers for Long, Quinn and Brockers.
#23 Travis Frederick (C, Wisconsin)
Big body, intelligent player and looks made for a man-blocking scheme.
#24 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
DeAndre Hopkins is a fantastic receiver. Simple as that.
#25 Margus Hunt (DE, SMU)
I just have a hunch this front office will like the idea of drafting a beast of a pass rusher who’s also a discuss thrower from Estonia.
#26 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
His best fit in my opinion is at 3-4 end.
#27 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
Underrated lineman who had a great year for a bad team.
#28 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
He can play the one or the three technique.
#29 Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
Tough shoes to fill, but Minter has as good a chance as anyone to succeed in replacing Ray Lewis.
#30 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
He’s well suited to the five technique in a 3-4 scheme.
#31 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
No, I don’t think New England will draft Barkley. But it’s the kind of position where someone could trade up to kick off a run on QB’s.
#32 Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
I don’t rate Hankins, but he might be the best ‘big’ left on the board.
Second round
#33 Jacksonville – Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
#34 Kansas City – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#35 Philadelphia – Kyle Long (T, Oregon)
#36 Detroit – Matt Elam (S, Florida)
#37 Cincinnati – Giovanni Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#38 Arizona – Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia)
#39 New York Jets – Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas)
#40 Tennessee – D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
#41 Buffalo – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
#42 Miami – John Simon (DE, Ohio State)
#43 Tampa Bay – Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
#44 Carolina – Logan Ryan (CB, Rutgers)
#45 San Diego – Terrance Williams (WR, Baylor)
#46 St. Louis – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#47 Dallas – Alex Okafor (DE, Texas)
#48 Pittsburgh – Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State)
#49 New York Giants – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#50 Chicago – Justin Pugh (T, Syracuse)
#51 Washington – Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
#52 Minnesota – Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
#53 Baltimore – Sam Montgomery (DE, LSU)
#54 Cincinnati – Eric Reid (S, LSU)
#55 Seattle – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#56 Green Bay – Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia)
#57 Miami – Brennan Williams (T, North Carolina)
#58 Houston – Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#59 San Francisco – Jordan Poyer (CB, Oregon State)
#60 New England – Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
#61 Atlanta – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#62 Denver – Stepfan Taylor (RB, Stanford)
Think back to the start of 2011. In Pete Carroll’s end of season press conference he identified the running game as a cause for concern. It was supposed to be the heart and soul of this team, yet the Seahawks ranked 31st in the league for rushing. Jeremy Bates was fired as offensive coordinator, in came Darrell Bevell and Tom Cable. The teams first two draft picks were offensive lineman. There was no media kidology here — this was pure, unadulterated honesty. Carroll did what he said he was going to do.
A year later the pass rush was identified as a key area of weakness. Only ten teams had less sacks than the Seahawks in 2011. Carroll and Schneider zoned in on a pass rusher in the first round of the draft and selected a player defined by Carroll as, “the ideal LEO.” Bruce Irvin was taken with the #15 overall pick in the 2012 draft. Jason Jones was added in free agency to act as a specialist three-technique. Once again the Seahawks had been honest about their ambitions in the off-season, and most definitely pro-active.
The problem is, one plan worked better than the other. The repair work to the run game turned the #31 ranked rushing attack in 2010 into the third best this season. For all of Seattle’s moves to improve the pass rush a year ago, it’s only warranted a three-sack improvement. Bruce Irvin, Jason Jones, Greg Scruggs, Jay Howard, re-signing Chris Clemons to an extended contract. It all adds up to three more sacks.
Seattle’s total of 36 this year is probably a generous review of the pressure they were able to exert on opposing quarterbacks. An eight-sack half against the Green Bay Packers — more freak than anything – bloated that statistic into mediocrity. Without that blistering half of pass-rushing, the Seahawks are among the league’s worst for sacks. A true bottom dweller, belittling the claims that this is an elite unit.
Of course, it’s not all about sacks. It’s about consistent pressure. Green Bay aside, this was never achieved. The Seahawks faced some of the worst offensive lines in the NFL this year and couldn’t get home. In key moments against Detroit, Miami and in the season finale against Atlanta, a lack of pressure equated to defeat. Pete Carroll and Gus Bradley were forced to rush five against the Falcons in the two key plays that set up Matt Bryant’s game winning field goal yesterday. That’s music to Matt Ryan’s ears. The top pocket-passers in the NFL want. you. to. blitz.
This is one of Carroll’s rare failures so far. He and John Schneider have found a franchise quarterback with a third round pick. They’ve created easily the best secondary in the NFL despite spending only one first round pick on Earl Thomas. They’ve devised a dominating running game and found a superstar running back via a trade worth a couple of late round picks. The roster is deep with young talent and it’s trending upwards.
The lack of pass rush, however, is right up there with the Charlie Whitehurst trade. Two big blotches on the copy book. The plan hasn’t worked and it’s time to start again.
Don’t take my word for it — these are Carroll’s sentiments exactly. He appeared on the Brock and Salk show (ESPN 710) this morning and was asked about the teams needs going forward:
“We didn’t settle the issue of rushing the passer. You know Jason (Jones) came in here and he got banged up and wasn’t really able to contribute the way we’d hoped. He did everything he could but he had a bad knee. We need pass rush, I think more than anything that’s it…. We need to add up front somehow to bring the heat.”
You can here the audio at the top of this article. The quotes used above appear at the 19:00 mark.
Carroll unsurprisingly appeared deflated in his post-game press conference yesterday, where he again addressed the lack of pass rush. On Bruce Irvin he commented, “I didn’t really see him out there.” In today’s open media conference he again stated, “We need another pass rusher. We really do. We’re going to need a couple of them.”
It’s a dose of refreshing honesty in a league where most teams guard their intentions like it’s a matter of national security. Then again, it doesn’t take a genius to work out Seattle’s biggest problem. NFL.com’s Gregg Rosenthal has written a lot of positive articles about the Seahawks this season. Even he couldn’t avoid spelling it out when reflecting on the 30-28 defeat to Atlanta:
When Pete Carroll looks at the film from Sunday’s heartbreaker, he’ll know that his team’s lack of a pass rush hurt badly. The Seahawks’ defense didn’t force a punt until midway through the fourth quarter. The Seahawks registered one “quarterback hit” and zero sacks in 35 drop-backs. With the game on the line, Carroll had no faith he could get pressure Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan with his front four.
Rosenthal’s rather bleak but honest ending to the piece kind of sums it up: “That made the difference in sending the Seahawks home for the offseason.” And he’s absolutely right. The Seahawks were a pass rush away from the NFC Championship game and a one-off shot at the Super Bowl. That’s how vital this issue is — and Carroll knows it.
Everything else in place. The offense will continue to grow with Wilson and Lynch. The rest of the defense is set. There’s plenty of depth across the roster. They just need to do a better job at rushing the passer.
We now know what the primary ambition is going to be during the off-season. This team will add at least two key pass rushers. It all begins when free agency opens on March 12th and moves on to Seattle’s #25 overall pick when the draft begins on April 25th. The hard part is working out what exactly they might do to rectify this problem.
Nobody guessed the Seahawks would take Bruce Irvin with a mid-first round pick. Trying to guess what they’ll do this year could be even tougher.
What are the options?
Free agency
According to John Clayton, the Seahawks have $18.6m in cap room for 2013. Part of this will come from the savings made on Alan Branch and Jason Jones becoming free agents (both could still re-sign for cheaper deals). The other part is down to the rules of the new CBA which allows teams to ‘carry over’ unused cap into future seasons. You have to expect the front office will build on this strategy going forward with many of the teams young stars due major pay increases if they’re going to stick with the Seahawks. For example, in 2014 Richard Sherman is due to earn $690,606. He’s an unrestricted free agent in 2015 and will probably command a much greater salary. Earl Thomas and K.J. Wright will also be free agents that year.
Keeping the band together is not going to be easy unless money is saved.
Even so, there’s enough cap room to at least entertain the possibility of making some moves in free agency. The cap situation could be improved further if Matt Flynn is traded/cut or if Zach Miller is willing to spread some of his $11m 2013 cap hit into future years (he’s due to make $7m in 2014 and $6m in 2015).
In terms of pass rushers, there are some nice prospective options assuming teams don’t use the franchise tag. Desmond Bryant (DT, Oakland), Henry Melton (DT, Chicago) and Randy Starks (DT, Miami) would all upgrade the teams interior pass rush. Bryant (27) and Melton (26) are both entering their prime and will be costly. Starks (29) would probably be more cost effective but with a much more limited upside. The Seahawks made two big splashes prior to the 2011 season by signing Miller and Sidney Rice. Would they entertain a similar move to bring in a veteran three-technique?
It’s unlikely Oakland will be able to afford Bryant, given they’re a projected $4.5m over the cao for 2013. Chicago has enough room at $13.3m to make an offer to Melton, while Miami has $35.8m to play with. Funnily enough, both teams could be impacted by the future of Jake Long. Miami will surely try to re-sign their left tackle, but using the franchise tag would cost $15.4m next season. The Palm Beach Post has already reported that it’s an unlikely scenario for the Dolphins. If Long hits free agency, the Bears could be a suitor given their major issues blocking for Jay Cutler. If the left tackle market dominates the start of free agency, it could present an opportunity for teams chasing the top defensive tackles.
Out of the three options I still favour a move for Starks. He’ll not be as expensive as the other two, while his run defense is superior. He’s still capable of collapsing the pocket and making plays, plus he might be open to a front-loaded two-year contract that’ll end in time for the Seahawks to free up cap room to re-sign their own key players. Both Bryant and Melton will be searching for longer term deals with lots of guaranteed money spread over several years. At the same time, there’s no doubting that Melton is the best pass rusher of the three and would have the greatest impact overall. But at what price?
Finding a veteran edge rusher could also be a possibility, especially if Chris Clemons needs to start the 2013 season on the PUP list as he recovers from an ACL injury. Anthony Spencer (DE, Dallas), Paul Kruger (DE, Baltimore) and Michael Johnson (DE, Cincinnati) will all command good contracts as young, productive pass rushers. Osi Umenyiora (DE, New York Giants) will also be a free agent and at 32-years-old, he might be willing to sign a more modest contract to play for a contender in his final 2-3 years in the league.
Addressing other needs in free agency could allow the Seahawks to concentrate on the pass rush in the draft instead. Receivers like Dwayne Bowe (WR, Kansas City), Mike Wallace (WR, Pittsburgh), Wes Welker (WR, New England), Greg Jennings (WR, Green Bay) and Danny Amendola (WR, St. Louis) are all likely to reach free agency. Victor Cruz (WR, New York Giants) is a restricted free agent, while former USC tight end Fred Davis (TE, Washington) could emerge on Seattle’s radar.
The problem is, this will be an expensive road to go down. Last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars invested $32m in former Dallas wide-out Laurent Robinson (anyone remember him?). He caught 24 passes for 252 yards and no touchdowns in 2012. Rest assured the big-name stars listed above will be wanting at least as much as Robinson stole from the Jaguars.
This is a team being built through the draft, with pay-days earned via performance and competition. It’s unlikely that the Seahawks would ‘chase the dream’ in free agency by making multiple big moves. Stuff like that turned the Philadelphia Eagles into a laughing stock. A choice move or two seems likely though.
2013 draft
Finding productive pass rushers in the draft can be a bit of a crap shoot. For every Aldon Smith and Von Miller, there’s a Derrick Harvey, Brandon Graham or Aaron Maybin. Who expected J.J. Watt to dominate as the most dynamic pass rusher in the NFL? Probably not even the Houston Texans. The Sehawks have been burned before in this situation, owning the #25 overall pick and trading down before taking Lawrence Jackson. No other position is quite so boom-or-bust when it comes to the draft.
The 2013 class actually has a cluster of talented pass rushers available. Bjoern Werner, Damontre Moore, Jarvis Jones, Dion Jordan, Ezekiel Ansah, Barkevious Mingo, John Simon and Alex Okafor could all be first round picks at defensive end or outside linebacker. Sheldon Richardson, Star Lotulelei, Sylvester Williams, Jesse Williams and Sharrif Floyd could all be drafted at the three or five technique positions.
And that’s just a sample size. This is a deep class for defensive lineman.
Seattle’s greatest need is an interior pass rusher. They’ve lacked a natural three-technique all season and it’s been costly. It’s testament to Chris Clemons that he’s once again managed to record double digit sacks this season playing almost as the teams sole pass rusher in base defense.
There’s no reason why the Seahawks couldn’t go big in the draft to improve the pass rush. They drafted offensive lineman back-to-back in 2011 to improve the run game, would they do defensive line back-to-back in 2013? Getting an interior presence is vital, particularly if they don’t find a solution in free agency. Edge rushers and a cost-effective replacement for Jason Jones are also possible.
One player I keep coming back to at the moment is Margus Hunt — the most Seahawky non-Seahawk who’ll turn pro this year. There are numerous things that will put off teams riddled with conventional wisdom. He’ll be a 26-year-old rookie. He has limited football experience having travelled to America to work on his discuss throwing. His technique is raw. None of these things stand to concern the Seahawks, who will no doubt ask what he can do as opposed to what he can’t. What you’re getting with Hunt is a 6-8, 275lbs beast with unnatural speed for his size. While he might be an outside bet as a possible first or second round pick for Seattle, he’s exactly the kind of player you can see Carroll and Schneider taking a chance on.
In the last fortnight I’ve also begun to consider Texas’ Alex Okafor as a more realistic possibility for the Seahawks. His 4.5-sack domination of Oregon State was a master-class in speed rushing off the edge, technique and control. He has a similar frame to Clemons at 6-4, 260lbs and he had 12.5 total sacks for the Longhorns this season. Importantly, he has solid upper body strength, good hands and he understands leverage to work against the run. That’s crucial for a tall and lean defensive end.
If the Seahawks do target edge rushers in round one again, it still won’t shake the biggest need unless they act in free agency. A nasty, violent three technique is a must. Sheldon Richardson is that man. He’s likely to be a top-15 pick given the rarity of good three-techniques in the NFL. The position has proven so difficult to get right in recent years with the leagues best (Geno Atkins, Henry Melton, Darnell Dockett) being found in the middle rounds. Every now and again though, a talent emerges. And Richardson looks like he could buck the trend of disappointing first round defensive tackles.
Do you need further evidence that he fits the Seattle’s scheme? USC spent considerable time trying to prize him away from Missouri during his time in the JUCO ranks. At one point he appeared to commit to the Trojans, only to stick to his initial decision and play in the SEC. Monte Kiffin wanted this guy in his defense — and it just so happens Seattle’s two key defensive brains are both Kiffin disciples.
Getting Richardson with the 25th overall pick would be a gift from the football gods. Yet there’s some hope in the form of character red flags. He’s the prototype three-technique, right down to the attitude and smack talk. It’ll rub some coaches and GM’s up the wrong way. He also served a one-game suspension in 2012 as a punishment for skipping class. It’s still a long shot, but if you’re lucky enough to find a franchise quarterback in round three of the draft, you’ll never rule out Sheldon Richardson suffering a fall on April 25th.
Scheme changes
Carroll seems agitated by the lack of pass rush, and maybe even a little let down. Bruce Irvin has endured a mixed rookie season. He hit a wall mid-way through the year and struggled to have much impact after the bye week. The Atlanta game was supposed to be his chance to show he can be a starter at the LEO position — but he struggled mightily. So concerned at getting beaten by the run, Irvin committed to it almost exclusively. The end result? He was a complete non-factor as a pass rusher.
The Seahawks might be going through the same moment of realisation experienced by West Virginia. They tried to force a starting role on Irvin, albeit in an ill-suited three-man front. He struggled and quickly reverted back to his productive specialist role. The decision paid off and he ended his final year with the Mountaineers strongly.
It might be time to accept what Irvin really is — a specialist. He’s always been at his best concentrating on one thing and one thing only… getting to the quarterback. Let him pin his ears back and go. Playing at the line of scrimmage in a four man front carries too much responsibility for a player incapable of manning the role. He’ll get you 8-12 sacks a year as a third down specialist. He’ll make big plays — just like he did against Carolina and Washington. But those big plays will come in decisive and specific moments, not regularly during a four-quarter game of football.
The thing is, Carroll truly believed Irvin was the ‘ideal LEO’ for his scheme. I’m not sure that’s the case. Not any more. That could be premature, it could be unfair. But I have to believe Carroll is contemplating Irvin’s duties going forward, especially if Chris Clemons can’t start the 2013 season. When you draft a pass rusher with your first round pick and 12 months later state “pass rusher” as the teams biggest need, something isn’t right. Irvin can be a fine specialist pass rusher, but that might be his ceiling.
This isn’t about one player though. Overall the Seahawks haven’t rushed the passer well enough in three seasons of Carroll’s programme. If you’re truly going to review how to make things better, don’t you have to look at the scheme too? It hasn’t really ever created sufficient pressure, even against the bad teams.
One of the problems is the unbalanced nature of Seattle’s attack. By focusing solely on a LEO rusher, it’s easier for the offensive line to max protect one side. A running back in pass protection can cover the left tackle and suddenly Clemons is trying to beat a double team to get home on a lot of plays. Using three big bodies in base defense (Bryant, Mebane, Branch) should theoretically make the Seahawks tough to run on. That isn’t the case. The run defense got progressively worse as the season went on. The unit failed to receive any benefit from using three non-pass rushers on their defensive line.
Theoretically things stand to improve immensely with the introduction of a legitimate three-technique. It’s also worth noting that San Francisco use a tandem on one side more often than not with Justin and Aldon Smith. It’s unbalanced, but works because the two pass rushers are high-quality and the rest of the line plays stout against the run. Will it be enough for Seattle though? If the Seahawks are going to use a 4-3 defense, do they need to start running a more balanced pass rush? Do they have to re-consider Red Bryant’s role as a defensive end and consider moving him back inside?
I’ve argued with several people about the significance of Bryant this season. Carroll made him the highest paid defensive player on the team for a reason. I believe the use of a proper three-technique will lift the defense and perhaps legitimise his role as a defensive end if the pass rush and run defense both improve next year. He continues to be a vocal leader for a young roster. That doesn’t excuse poor play, but it has to factor into why the Seahawks are so keen to keep him at the forefront of their defense.
I concede Carroll will likely review the situation during the off-season. He’s shown a willingness to be pro-active and go against his own beliefs for the greater good. I also suspect after some soul searching he’ll stick with his original plan and try to enhance it. That doesn’t mean the Seahawks can’t bring in personnel to incorporate a more orthodox 4-3 front if needs be. I’m not convinced Irvin and Clemons can act as a base tandem without any pass rush up the middle. But get a player who can act as a more natural left end, bring in a proper three-technique and suddenly, you can be flexible against certain opponents and situations.
This is still a good defense overall, but they need a plan to combat late game winning drives like we saw in Detroit, Miami and Atlanta. Being able to turn to a more balanced pass rush in the hour of need is crucial. I don’t think this team will totally go away from the Bryant experiment or the 4-3 under. But I do think they’ll make the moves to be more flexible.
Moving forward
We’ve talked a lot about the defense here and it seems somewhat unfair not to even mention Russell Wilson. Hours after a stunning performance against Atlanta, he was in front of the media today for his final press-conference of the season. His performance in front of the microphone was almost more impressive than the action on the field. He looked and sounded like the heart of this franchise. He oozed confidence and spoke with authority. For the first time, he came across like a spokesperson for the players.
Wilson sported a hoodie noting his slogan, “No time 2 sleep” and acted like a ten-year veteran. This is a team game, he’ll be the first to tell you that. Yet Wilson looked every bit a franchise quarterback during this interview — saying exactly the right things, talking about his optimism for the future. I always believed the identity of this team would come back to Pete Carroll. Slowly but surely, it seems to be shifting towards Russell Wilson.
You’d like to make his life easier next season by at least investing in one more solid receiving option. A Zach Ertz, a DeAndre Hopkins or even one of those free agent pass-catchers could be a key addition to the offense. I suspect at least one of those early draft picks will be saved for a pass-catcher.
Ultimately though the difference between joy and pain this time next year will rest on Carroll and Schneider’s ability to improve the pass rush. To quote Kip — and I’m sure he won’t mind me using this quote — “I truly believe that the Seahawks would be unbeatable if they had a defensive line like Denver’s or Cincinnati’s and stayed healthy. They’d be the Women’s UCONN team of the NFL.”
I tend to agree.
I’ve included some game tape videos below to show off some of the prospects that could provide the answers in 2013. This includes a new Sheldon Richardson video vs Tennesse, courtesy of JMPasq.
Another week, another mock draft. This time things are a little bit clearer for the team picking first overall.
Andy Reid is in at Kansas City. The main reason the Chiefs job was so attractive was in part because they’re such grand underachievers. They have two good pass rushers, two excellent defensive backs, an explosive running back, a decent offensive line and some young receiving options. There is no way this team should be picking first overall.
The reason they are is simple – they don’t have a quarterback. Reid will know if he finds one, Kansas City could enjoy a resurgence and become competitive in an AFC West division that isn’t exactly daunting (Peyton Manning won’t play forever). He has to draft a quarterback first overall and I’m sticking to my guns on who he’ll take. I want to talk about this briefly before getting into this week’s projection.
A lot of people want to tell you how bad the quarterback class is, but in reality it’s just not as good as last year. There’s no Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III that tick every media-friendly box. Elite athleticism? Check. Character? Check. Feel good storyline? Check.
What you’ve got instead are three decent quarterbacks who all deserve first round consideration. Matt Barkley, Geno Smith and Tyler Wilson all have their faults, but all have striking positives too. It’s not a black hole situation for Kansas City and they can win with all three of these players in my opinion. For all the hand-wringing over the quarterback position, who else truly deserves to be the #1 overall pick? I’m not convinced Luke Joeckel is quite as good as a Matt Kalil for example (4th overall last year) while the top pass rushers don’t get close to Jadeveon Clowney (a probable #1-2 overall pick in 2014). This isn’t like the time St. Louis took Sam Bradford over Ndamukong Suh. There really aren’t many alternatives that will lead Kansas City away from trying to solve their quarterback dilemma.
Anyone playing any position could be a top-ten pick this year. That’s just the way it is. The talent differential between picks #1-25 is going to be minimal. And there’s no none-quarterback who truly deserves to go first overall.
If Reid ignores the position with the first pick, he’ll likely be depending on a Ryan Nassib, Tyler Bray, Mike Glennon or Landry Jones being available in the middle rounds. That seems like the blueprint to another lost year, and Reid needs to kick start this franchise and find momentum early.
So which of the three quarterbacks should Kansas City select? I still think it has to be Matt Barkley.
There’s a lot of garbage talked about Barkley – how he had a bad year, how he only succeeded due to the talent around him. If you want to blame anyone for USC’s meltdown this year, look no further than Lane Kiffin. When he wasn’t busy being a jerk to the media or playing silly mind-games with opponents, he was overseeing a shambles on the field.
Amid this shambles, Barkley still threw 36 touchdown passes. Had he not missed the last two games through injury, he would’ve likely topped 2011’s 39 scores – beating a season that won universal praise. He had to operate behind a porous offensive line minus Matt Kalil and with center Khaled Holmes suffering an injury plagued year. He ran an offense that scored 51 points against the Oregon Ducks – I guess Barkley also needed to play defense too seeing as Monte Kiffin’s unit gave up 62 themselves? In a bad year for the Trojans, Barkley’s numbers still stand out. So why is he getting so much bad publicity? Why has he gone, for example, from #1 to #32 on Todd McShay’s big board? Why has he gone from #1 on Mel Kiper’s board to not even being included – while Mike Glennon does make the list? I understand if you never rated Barkley to start with, but how does he go from best to borderline first rounder based on a 36-touchdown season? That makes zero sense.
If his success at USC was only due to a strong supporting cast, why did Max Wittek only throw for 107 yards against a rank bad Georgia Tech outfit in the Sun Bowl? Wittek has a better arm than Barkley, he’d played against Notre Dame previously. Why wasn’t the talent at receiver helping him put up big numbers against a mediocre opponent?
Andy Reid can build around a quarterback like Barkley. He is a methodical, accurate quarterback. He’s not going to run the read-option or beat you with his legs. He will orchestrate an orthodox passing offense, make quick, intelligent decisions and act as a point guard for your playmakers. In the right environment, Barkely can shine. Kansas City has that right environment. They can protect him, run the ball and use a possession-based offense. And they can win football games.
He’s also an engaging, hard-working character who will quickly take control of the offense. If you build to his strengths, he will succeed. I’ve long believed he has an upside potential comparable to Philip Rivers and I see no reason to doubt that. Rivers is competitive, accurate and when he’s had tools he’s been elite. If Kansas City builds correctly, Reid can win with Barkley.
In Philadelphia he drafted smaller, quicker receivers (DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin). The Chiefs should target Robert Woods with their second pick and maybe also Markus Wheaton. That way they can run a lot of quick screens, slants and get the ball to their playmakers – just as Barkley operated at USC. He has a bigger target in Jonathan Baldwin, although Dwayne Bowe appears likely to depart. Jamaal Charles is a perfect foil as a runner/receiver. With a good defense already installed, this could be a 9-10 win team in 2013.
You can make arguments for the other two quarterbacks too. Geno Smith has a superior fast ball and showed real efficiency at the start of the college season before things imploded at West Virginia (similar to USC’s crash, although Smith’s stock somehow stayed intact while Barkley’s fell). Tyler Wilson is surprisingly mobile and more of a gun slinger – plus he had no chance of succeeding in Arkansas’ season from hell. He does force too many passes though and occasionally makes questionable decisions. I still think Barkley presents the best option as a technically gifted passer who can act as a point guard for Andy Reid. And if he needs any reminder of what Barkley is capable of, he needs only look at the 2011 Oregon tape. Why not ask Chip Kelly what he thinks about Matt Barkley?
Three other quick notes – Tennessee defensive lineman Darrington Sentimore today declared for the draft. He’s a former transfer from Alabama. This is a boost for Seahawks fans hoping to identify a mid-round defensive tackle who can rush the passer. Sentimore is a fiery character, he weighs 290lbs and is 6-2 in height. He never truly delivered on his promise in college, but he has a lot of talent. He could be on Seattle’s radar. I’ve also left out Brandon Coleman in this weeks projection. Rutgers coach Kyle Flood says he doesn’t expect any more players to turn pro before the January 15th deadline and Coleman is yet to commit either way. I think he’d be better off turning pro given the quarterback situation, but it appears he might be spending another year in college. He’s only a redshirt sophomore. Taylor Lewan announced today he will be returning to Michigan for his senior year.
Onto this week’s mock draft…
First round
#1 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
The Chiefs need a quarterback. They don’t have a terrible roster. They have to do this.
#2 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
The Jaguars need a pass rusher and Werner could be the choice after a 13.5-sack season.
#3 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
Only Jacksonville had less sacks than Oakland this season. Richardson could be the next great interior pass rusher.
#4 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
This is the starting point for whoever replaces Andy Reid. They have to repair the offensive line.
#5 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M)
The Lions could use an edge rusher. Moore had 12.5 sacks in the SEC this year.
#6 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia)
Jones has top-five talent but the spinal stenosis issue will really linger. He’ll need to be cleared to go this early.
#7 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia)
They need a quarterback. Simple as that.
#8 Alec Ogeltree (LB, Georgia)
Buffalo might trade back into the first round to get a quarterback, allowing them to take the best player available here.
#9 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
If Chance Warmack went first overall, it’d still be good value.
#10 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
Plenty of upside here, just not a lot of consistency.
#11 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan)
They need to take a left tackle.
#12 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
The X-Factor player of this draft.
#13 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
The complete cornerback. This would be a steal.
#14 Sylvester Williams (DT, Utah)
Big-bodied defensive tackle who can get to the quarterback and play well against the run.
#15 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
Jordan will know he can make some money at the combine, so he needs to get healthy.
#16 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
With Taylor Lewan deciding to return to Michigan, this is great news for the technically sound Lane Johnson.
#17 Matt Elam (S, Florida)
Pure playmaker in the secondary.
#18 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
Athletic guard who could even switch to tackle. He will start for 10+ years.
#19 Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU)
Another player who could really boost his stock with a great combine.
#20 Justin Pugh (T, Syracuse)
The next best tackle on the board.
#21 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
He had a tremendous Chick-fil-A Bowl.
#22 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
This guy is legit. A brilliant linebacker prospect.
#23 Travis Frederick (C, Wisconsin)
He’s going pro after dominating at guard and center. Big body, looks made for a man-blocking scheme.
#24 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
Minnesota needs a reliable receiver to compliment Adrian Peterson’s brilliance. They kind of need a quarterback, too.
#25 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
The Ravens always seem to get value. What better way to replace an emotional leader?
#26 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
Stanford’s leading receiver, his blocking is also better than advertised.
#27 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
His best fit in my opinion is at 3-4 end.
#28 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
He’s a good fit for the 3-4 end position. Long term Jason Smith replacement?
#29 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
He had a great year on a losing team. Can play tackle or guard.
#30 Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas)
No, I don’t think the Patriots draft Wilson. But a team like Buffalo could trade into this range to get him.
#31 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
They could use a big body to help the run defense.
#32 Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
Denver can afford to take a solid football player here.
Second round
#33 Jacksonville – Alex Okafor (DE, Texas)
#34 Kansas City – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#35 Philadelphia – Barrett Jones (C, Alabama)
#36 Detroit – Jonathan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#37 Cincinnati – Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
#38 Arizona – Kyle Long (T, Oregon)
#39 New York Jets – Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
#40 Tennessee – Gabe Jackson (G, Mississippi State)
#41 Buffalo – Logan Ryan (CB, Rutgers)
#42 Miami – John Simon (DE, Ohio State)
#43 Tampa Bay – Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
#44 Carolina – Shawn Williams (S, Georgia)
#45 San Diego – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#46 St. Louis – Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
#47 Dallas – Jonathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#48 Pittsburgh – Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State)
#49 New York Giants – Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia)
#50 Chicago – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#51 Washington – Eric Reid (S, LSU)
#52 Minnesota – Bennie Logan (DT, LSU)
#53 Baltimore – Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
#54 Cincinnati – D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
#55 Seattle – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#56 Green Bay – Giovanni Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#57 Miami – Brennan Williams (T, North Carolina)
#58 Houston – Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#59 San Francisco – Jordan Poyer (CB, Oregon State)
#60 New England – Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
#61 Atlanta – Margus Hunt (DE, SMU)
#62 Denver – Terrance Williams (WR, Baylor)
Next best available
QB – Mike Glennon, Tyler Bray, Ryan Nassib, Landry Jones
DeAndre Hopkins dominated LSU's secondary, something not many people achieve
DeAndre Hopkins is Mr. Consistent – a clutch receiver without the eye-popping physical qualities. He makes up for it by getting the basics right – he catches with his hands, doesn’t have many drops, runs good routes and makes crucial rather than explosive plays.
Cordarrelle Patterson is the X-Factor player of the 2013 draft. He’s 6-3/6-4, could run a 4.35 at the combine and hits home runs. He’s a threat to score every time he gets the football, setting a school record for all purpose yards in his first season with Tennessee. Patterson doesn’t play with great technique, but he’s a playmaker.
Which is the better fit for the Seahawks?
On the one hand they have a young quarterback who needs as many consistent targets as possible. When it’s third down in a big game, Russell Wilson needs to know there are guys on the field he can rely on. He also needs as much dynamism as possible in this offense. Seattle likes to make quick strikes down field, usually off play action. Speed, height and reach are crucial as Wilson looks to exploit single coverage and jump-ball situations.
Hopkins is no slouch and we’re not talking about a mediocre athlete who can only run short, inside routes. You don’t get to 1405 yards and 18 touchdowns playing steady football. He can get downfield, he can run after the catch. Yet he doesn’t compare favourably with the statistical top-five receivers in the NFL who all weigh +225lbs and stand at least 6-3 tall. He compares favourably to Roddy White, but there aren’t many dominating receivers who play outside at his size.
Patterson had 1,858 all-purpose yards in 2012 – more than any other player in the SEC. He scored five receiving touchdowns and three rushing – plus two extra scores via punt and kick returns. However, he also faced something of a learning curve in his first season in the NCAA. His technique looks off and he looks every bit a player fresh out of the JUCO ranks. He gets his body into awkward positions to catch the ball and doesn’t often extend his hands to make a completion. These things can be coached and he has the athletic prowess to make for a worthy project.
Let’s look at the tape…
DeAndre Hopkins vs LSU
This was one of the all-time best performances I’ve seen from a receiver, mainly due to the sheer quantity of clutch plays. Sammy Watkins left the game in Clemson’s first offensive series through injury, meaning the LSU secondary could zone in on Hopkins. He still found ways to get open despite double coverage. He still made difficult passes with a corner draped all over him. He had two difficult touchdown receptions, several third down completions and made the play of the game on 4th and 16 to extend the game-winning drive.
Look at the technique at 0:35 in the video where he extends his arms to make a catch for the first down. Hopkins locates the ball mid-route, reaches out and plucks the football out of the air. Textbook reception.
At 1:49 he absorbs a holding call against the corner, fights off some physical coverage and still locates the back-shoulder throw for a completion. He needs to prove he can be physical at 6-1 and 200lbs.
The two touchdowns at 2:25 and 5:57 emphasise how crisp he runs his routes, how he can make difficult catches in traffic and convert on key downs. Bear in mind LSU were fully aware Tajh Boyd would be looking for Hopkins on both plays.
At 3:07 he flashes his athleticism to make a man miss and turn a short gain into a first down. The 4th and 16 conversion comes at 6:48 and prevents LSU from winning the game. Again – another tough grab.
The one thing that keeps jumping out – you don’t need to make a perfect throw with this guy. He’s going to adjust to the ball in the air, extend and complete the catch. He might not be the most dynamic receiver in college football. He might not run the fastest forty yard dash. But he’s a driven and ambitious player who will work hard to have an impact.
We talked about his character and drive to succeed in a piece earlier this week. I have no doubts that he’ll work hard at his craft. His personality and attitude appears to compare favourably to Julio Jones, who won major brownie points with the Atlanta Falcons because they knew they could trust him to work at his craft.
There are some issues too – as always. Hopkins is a pure hands catcher but he doesn’t necessarily have the strongest hands. Sometimes when a ball is a little high and he has to extend, he misses the catch. As cornerbacks in the NFL get bigger, questions are going to be asked if a player of this stature can win a high percentage of jump passes (a heavy staple in Seattle’s offense). Teams are looking for big receivers who don’t necessarily run a 4.3, but can be competitive and win 1vs1 match-ups in the air.
Neither is Hopkins a truly explosive player. While you can never truly have enough reliable pass-catchers, do the Seahawks need to look for something they don’t have? Is this an offense that lacks more of an X-Factor type – someone with unique dynamism who can make quick strikes downfield or major YAC? Or can we sometimes be distracted by flashy playmakers when really the core quality a receiver needs is the ability to get open and make a play. The question becomes, can Hopkins continue to get open and make regular plays in the bigger, faster world of the NFL?
One example that says he can is the game above. LSU’s secondary remains one of the best in college football. And he dominated them to the tune of 13 catches for 191 yards and two vital touchdowns. GM’s, scouts and coaches around the league will turn to this game when they sit down to scout Hopkins… and they’ll like what they see.
Cordarrelle Patterson vs Florida, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Georgia
Only the Florida game in the tape above was among Patterson’s most productive (eight catches, 75 yards and a touchdown) in 2012. By the end of the season Tennessee were just trying to find ways to get him the ball – thus why you see him taking a lot of snaps as a running back. In part this is a concern. His consistency as a receiver took a hit after week three vs Florida when teams started using physical corners to disrupt his routes. The solution? Find other ways to get him the ball because he’s too much of a playmaker. They did that, and he scored touchdowns and made big plays.
He’s pretty much the ‘Ying’ to Hopkins’ ‘Yang’. Patterson hasn’t been a production machine who churns out 6-8 catches a game. Yet sometimes he only needs one catch or one possession to have a major impact.
Here are some of the good plays from the tape above. At 2:28 he’s being held all the way by a defensive back, but he keeps his focus and extends to make a smart diving catch. We see the best example of strong hands at 7:06 when he plucks the ball out of the air for a nice completion.
He’s capable of trick plays – something that has been more of a feature for the Seahawks this year. At 3:29 he throws a pass on a fake run and at 4:46 he scores on a reverse against Missouri. Perhaps the best play in the tape is at 11:37 where he takes a reverse and is set to throw to Justin Hunter. He’s not open, so Patterson has to pull the ball down and run. Which he does, finding the edge and running half the field for a spectacular touchdown.
At 7:51 he flashes some of that punt return quality before taking one all the way at 10:04 against Vanderbilt – managing to avoid hitting the turf despite a heavy tackle, keeping his balance and taking it home.
We see further evidence of his elusiveness at 5:41 when he appears to be bottled up for a short loss only to extend the pay, stretch it out and make something out of nothing. Great athleticism.
Then there are the concerns, such as the awful drop against Georgia at 10:59. It’s a perfect throw by Tyler Bray, right on the money for a touchdown. Patterson has his guy beat – all he has to do is make a simple catch and he runs it home for a score. Bad, bad drop. There’s a further sloppy play at 2:39 going for a one-handed effort when two hands and a little more commitment makes a big gain.
Against Akron (not featured in the video) he was responsible for a pick-six by rounding off his route and not challenging for the ball. His catching technique is far from perfect – even when he makes plays. Patterson has a tendency to contort his body and make life difficult for himself. He’s more of a body catcher and let’s it get into his chest/stomach too much. There’s not a great deal of evidence on tape of him winning jump balls.
At the same time, you cannot expect the finished article from what essentially amounts to a freshman in college. He transferred from the JUCO ranks and started in week one, going straight into the line-up to replace dismissed receiver Da’Rick Rogers. In his first year in the league, you’ll probably throw him out there as part of some package plays. Let him run some deep routes and return some kicks. It’s bonus time to get coached in the pro’s. And it’s only then that you can expect to see anything like a complete player. In the meantime you might just get a really dangerous weapon who can still make some big plays. Score some touchdowns. Seattle took a similar approach with Kam Chancellor in year one and it paid dividends. Golden Tate has looked sharp after two years having little impact. There’s precedent there for bringing guys along slowly knowing the upside and potential at stake.
What is Patterson’s ceiling? He has the speed. He has the size. He makes game-changing plays and scores cheap points. Essentially, the sky’s the limit. But you might also have to stomach some of the mistakes to get to the promise land.
So what’s it to be?
The Seahawks have looked at both kinds of players in the draft. Bruce Irvin was a former JUCO transfer with raw potential and mass-production in college in a specialist role. He was judged to be a top-15 pick because he fit the teams scheme (although Pete Carroll’s familiarity with Irvin also played a key part). Patterson does fit the quick-strike offense, he can work in trick plays and he’s explosive.
On the other hand, they’ve also gone the route of very solid, productive players who are consistent without prototypical size – with one obvious example of that. And I don’t think they’ll be averse to take players like that in round one to help that particular player reach his maximum potential. Consistency is not an ugly word for a wide receiver and Hopkins simply gets the job done.
Time for the weekly mock draft update and the first for 2013. I promised video of DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson) performance against LSU in this weeks Chick-fil-A Bowl and you’ll find it above. I’m going to break it down tomorrow, but wanted to include it in this piece because… well you’ve probably worked it out by now.
Thoughts on the mock
– This is the hardest time of the year to do a mock draft. Several teams haven’t got coaches or even GM’s. If Andy Reid lands in Arizona, will he really give Kevin Kolb another chance as the starter? If Ray Horton is appointed as a Head Coach, will it be to a team that suddenly has to adjust to the 3-4? Basically this thing could look a lot different in a fortnight. Not that it’s anything remotely like an accurate projection in early January. It’s just a discussion starter.
– I’m not convinced by some of the recent hype around certain quarterbacks. Tyler Bray has plenty of arm talent but made far too many mistakes this year and others have questioned his attitude. I can’t put him in the first two rounds at the moment. Suddenly Tajh Boyd is being touted as a first or second round pick based on his performance against LSU. I just can’t see that happening based on his overall 2012 performance. Mike Glennon is another player suddenly receiving a fair amount of hype. He still warrants (at best) a mid-round grade in my opinion.
– I still think Matt Barkley is the best quarterback in this class and therefore the most likely player to go #1 overall. USC has been a shambles on the field this year and a PR disaster off it. Lane Kiffin is lucky to still be in a job. He is completely responsible for the mess at Southern Cal. Yet despite all of this, Barkley had 36 touchdowns and a 157.6 passer rating – less than four points short of his 2011 mark where everybody was touting him as a top-ten pick. And for all those people questioning whether he’d be as good without Marqise Lee and Robert Woods, I present to you the Georgia Tech game – where Max Wittek managed a grand total of 107 yards and had three interceptions in a lousy defeat. Barkley isn’t the physical comparison to Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III or Cam Newton. He is, however, an accurate and accomplished passer with the kind of attitude you can build a franchise around. The Chiefs have a good supporting cast, they just need a guy to pull it all together.
– I haven’t included Jake Matthews (T, Texas A&M) following a report that he’s likely to stay in school for his senior year. With Luke Joeckel likely to turn pro, Matthews would have the opportunity to play left tackle next year for the Aggies. If he performs to expectations, that would put him in position to be a possible top-five pick in 2014.
– I’ve said this a few times, but this is a really good draft to be picking in the late first round. The talent differential from the top-ten to the 20-32 range is minimal. Whether the Seahawks pick 21st overall or 32nd, there’s going to be some good options to help keep this team moving forward. So basically, feel free to reach the Super Bowl guys.
Back to a first and second round projection today.
First round
#1 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
The Chiefs need a quarterback. They don’t have a terrible roster. They have to do this.
#2 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
The Jaguars need a pass rusher and Werner could steadily move up the boards after a 13.5 sack season.
#3 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M)
Only Jacksonville had less sacks than Oakland this season. Moore had 12.5 in the SEC for Texas A&M.
#4 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
This is the starting point for whoever replaces Andy Reid. They have to repair the offensive line.
#6 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia)
Jones has top-five talent but the spinal stenosis issue will really linger. He’ll need to be cleared to go this early.
#7 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia)
Are they seriously considering persevering with Kevin Kolb? Really?
#8 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
Buffalo might trade back into the first round to get a quarterback, allowing them to take the best player available here.
#9 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
If they really want to play smash-mouth football, this is the guy they should take.
#10 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
There’s a bit of Dockett in there. He could be the next great three-technique.
#11 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan)
They need to take a left tackle.
#12 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
The X-Factor player of this draft.
#13 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
The complete cornerback. This would be a steal.
#14 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
Massive upside, but too inconsistent for the top-ten.
#15 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
Jordan will know he can make some money at the combine.
#16 Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan)
The next best tackle on the board.
#17 Matt Elam (S, Florida)
Pure playmaker in the secondary.
#18 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
Athletic guard who could even switch to tackle. He will start for 10+ years.
#19 Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU)
Another player who could really boost his stock with a great combine.
#20 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
With the tackles off the board, Chicago goes best player available on offense.
#21 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
He had a tremendous Chick-fil-A Bowl.
#22 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
This guy is legit. A brilliant linebacker prospect.
#23 Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
It’s time to start planning for life after Ray Lewis (legend).
#24 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers)
He’s contemplating whether to declare. If he does, he has more upside than any other receiver in this class.
#25 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
When building a 3-4, you need a nose tackle.
#26 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
Just a really good football player. Mr. Clutch.
#27 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
His best fit in my opinion is at 3-4 end.
#28 John Simon (DE, Ohio State)
Blue-collar pass rusher. Underrated.
#29 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
He had a great year on a losing team. Can play tackle or guard.
#30 Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas)
No, I don’t think the Patriots draft Wilson. But a team like Buffalo could trade into this range to get him.
#31 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
They could use another interior pass rusher.
#32 Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
He’d go higher if he showed more consistent effort.
Second round
#33 Jacksonville – Jonathan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#34 Kansas City – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#35 Philadelphia – Barrett Jones (C, Alabama)
#36 Detroit – Logan Ryan (CB, Rutgers)
#37 Cincinnati – Giovanni Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#38 Arizona – Justin Pugh (T, Syracuse)
#39 New York Jets – Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
#40 Tennessee – Kyle Long (T, Oregon)
#41 Buffalo – Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State)
#42 Miami – Alex Okafor (DE, Texas)
#43 Tampa Bay – Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
#44 Carolina – Shawn Williams (S, Georgia)
#45 San Diego – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#46 St. Louis – Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
#47 Dallas – Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
#48 Pittsburgh – Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
#49 New York Giants – Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia)
#50 Chicago – D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
#51 Washington – Eric Reid (S, LSU)
#52 Minnesota – Bennie Logan (DT, LSU)
#53 Baltimore – Sharrif Floyd (DE, Florida)
#54 Cincinnati – Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#55 Seattle – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#56 Green Bay – Stepfan Taylor (RB, Stanford)
#57 Miami – Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
#58 Houston – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#59 San Francisco – Jordan Poyer (CB, Oregon State)
#60 New England – Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
#61 Atlanta – Brennan Williams (T, North Carolina)
#62 Denver – Terrance Williams (WR, Baylor)
Time to start a new bandwagon. A DeAndre Hopkins shaped bandwagon.
Without any doubt at all, he’s a stud. Any doubts about this guy need to be firmly removed following an incredible solo-performance against mighty LSU yesterday. He’s a top-20 talent who may go later… and a smart team will be ready to capitalise.
LSU’s passing defense isn’t quite as sharp since losing Morris Claiborne and Patrick Peterson to the NFL (and Tyronn Mathieu to marijuana) but this was still a terrific performance from an underrated player. Give credit too to quarterback Tajh Boyd, who had to deal with a relentless pass rush and constant pressure. But there’s no doubting who the star of the show was.
Hopkins had 13 catches, 191 yards and two touchdowns. His first score was set up by a physical grab down the left sideline, competing against pass interference to turn and locate the ball before making a difficult catch (see the play here). The touchdown (click here) owed a lot to Boyd’s accuracy and velocity, fitting a pass into a tight window. But Hopkins made the catch look easy in traffic. Clutch completion.
The second score was another tough catch at the back of the end zone, made possible by a good route (click here). It’s the kind of effortless play Hopkins makes time and time again. He’s such a smooth, controlled route runner with the hands to match.
I’m going to post the full game tape on the blog soon, but here are the other characteristics he flashed on the night. He’s a pure hands catcher. For nearly every one of his 13 receptions he extended his arms and plucked the ball out of the air. He had one drop by my count – a high pass on a crossing route he had no real duty to complete. His reaction was poignant – sheer frustration at himself for not making the grab. It’s testament to his character and attitude, something I’ll come back to later.
Fortunately drops are not a concern. He smothered every other pass thrown his way – on one occasion leaping above a defensive back to make a completion with his finger tips. For all the great physical traits you find with other players – and you’ll hear pundits continually talk about size and speed when it comes to the wide out position – you just cannot beat a guy who catches everything thrown his way and makes game-winning plays. ‘Reliable’ is sometimes superior to ‘explosive’. When you’re driving for the win, a quarterback wants a guy he knows he can go to. It might be his third read on the play, but he always knows in the back of his man is going to be there. In the red zone? Where’s my guy. This is the type of player Hopkins will be at the next level.
We’ve talked about clutch plays, but there was no greater example of this than a 4th and 16 completion on the game’s final drive. He found just enough separation over the middle for Boyd to slip a pass in between two defenders – similar to his first touchdown. Hopkins makes the diving catch and holds onto the ball. That play essentially won Clemson the game, as shortly after they marched down field and scored the winning field goal as time expired. Drop the pass and LSU wins.
He’s not the biggest receiver at 6-1 and 200-205lbs. He’s also not among the fastest – I’d project a time in the 4.45-4.50 range at the combine. This is where the league is in danger of being fooled again.
Conventional wisdom says that’s not spectacular enough for a high pick. The five most productive receivers in the NFL this year statistically were Calvin Johnson (6-5, 236lbs), Andre Johnson (6-3, 230lbs), Brandon Marshall (6-4, 230lbs), Demaryius Thomas (6-3, 229lbs) and Vincent Jackson (6-5, 230lbs). Clearly size matters. The man ranked at #9 is Roddy White of Atlanta – listed at 6-0 and 211lbs. He’s become a clutch receiver for Matt Ryan – the original dynamic target prior to Julio Jones’ arrival. Hopkins compares favourably to White – who was drafted #27 overall in 2005. They’re likely make comparable forty times (White had a 4.47), they have similar size and range. However, Hopkins hasn’t shown any of the inconsistencies that dogged White’s early years in Atlanta before the light switched on.
The way you make up for a lack of size is playing above your stature. Be physical. Master your routes. Understand the offense. Find advantages elsewhere. When you listen to Hopkins conduct an interview, he’ll talk about (for example) exploiting a cover-2 and appears to be a student of the game. Despite the arrival of highly-recruited Sammy Watkins he never complained about a reduced work-load in 2011. Watkins left the LSU game after picking up an injury in Clemson’s first offensive series. That makes a 13-catch near-200 yard performance even more impressive against one of the best defensive teams in the SEC.
During the game ESPN’s sideline reporter Jeannine Edwards relayed a story about Hopkins being asked in high-school to make a list of targets for the year ahead. Apparently he’s continued this tradition throughout his career and has met every goal he set out to achieve. Supposedly his one remaining goal for the 2012 season is to become a first round pick in the NFL draft. It’s this kind of determination and focus that’ll have GM’s and coaches salivating when they sit down to speak with this guy. And doesn’t he just sound like a perfect compliment to a workaholic like Russell Wilson? You can almost imagine the pair working overtime throwing passes during the off-season. It’s a chemistry waiting to happen.
I appreciate the front office’s apparent penchant for size at the receiver position. There are a lot of jump-balls to be won in this offense. They coveted both Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson on the trade market and decided both moves were too expensive. Big Mike Williams was a feature in 2010 and 2011. Sidney Rice is 6-4. If they’re going to add another receiver, they may favour the size of a Cordarrelle Patterson or Brandon Coleman.
However, one of the reasons this team believed 5-11 Russell Wilson could be a starting NFL quarterback was due to the way he made up for a lack of size. His release point, hand size, throwing velocity, accuracy and mobility rendered it a moot point. Pete Carroll has talked about players needing to make up for a lack of elite physical qualities to warrant consideration. Hopkins answers the call with his hands, clutch playmaking ability, route running and intelligence on the field. And it’s not like 6-1 and a 4.45-4.50 forty yard dash is a major issue anyway. This team drafted a smaller receiver in Golden Tate who can still go up and make physical plays.
One thing I’ve learnt watching Russell Wilson in Seattle is to never underestimate a prospect who is determined to be great. Few players have that quality. Some are physically good enough to never require that aspect of their personality. Others are so driven, so zoned in on making themselves ‘great’. I get that impression from Hopkins.
Sources tell me tonight will be the final college game for DeAndre Hopkins/WR/Clemson as he will enter the draft….
Now that we know he’s going to turn pro – and what a way to bow out of college – it’s time he warranted serious consideration as a first round pick. The likes of Keenan Allen and Justin Hunter continue to appear in multiple mock drafts carrying first round grades, while Hopkins is nowhere to be seen. I’d be very suspicious of any mock not giving this guy serious first round consideration – especially behind those two players. For the record, he ended the 2012 season with 1405 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. There’s going to be a lot of good receiving options in the late first round this year. Hopkins, Brandon Coleman, Cordarrelle Patterson, Markus Wheaton and others could all be available in that range. Stanford tight end Zach Ertz is another name to keep an eye on if he decides to turn pro. It’s perhaps another reason why the Seahawks would be better served addressing some of their pass-rushing issues in free agency to allow the front office to take advantage of the pass-catching talent available this year. Of course, there are other possible target positions in the first round. Tony Pauline confirmed today that Georgia’s brilliant linebacker Alec Ogletree will turn pro:
Have been told after much deliberation Alex Ogletree/LB/Georgia will enter the draft… — Tony Pauline (@TonyPauline) January 1, 2013
Ogletree’s final snap for Georgia was a sack – a fitting end for one of the more explosive defensive prospects entering the league in the last few years. It’s also difficult to look too far beyond Kansas State’s Arthur Brown, who will contest the Fiesta Bowl against Oregon on Thursday. Both players appear to be good fits for the WILL position in Seattle’s 4-3 under scheme.
Even so, it’s time to get excited about DeAndre Hopkins. He could be a name many more people are talking about by the time April comes around.
