Chase Young is a 49er
If you’re minded to not want to discuss the ins and outs of trade value, that’s fine. I just wanted to say this article probably isn’t for you.
You’re welcome to be disinterested in the subject and there’s nothing wrong with that. Some of us want to discuss the trade value though. That is also OK. I’ve seen too many Seahawks fans in the last 24 hours try to shut down any opinion that strays marginally beyond, ‘OMG this is an amazing trade’.
Personally, I think value should always be discussed. Draft picks are the foundation with which you build. Your high picks are critical. The Seahawks have built an intriguing new core with back-to-back excellent drafts. When a trade is an ultra-aggressive, 10-game rental — with no guarantee of anything more — scrutiny is necessary.
A day after the Leonard Williams trade was confirmed, I think it’s increasingly starting to look like an overpay that is just irksome enough to want to write about.
Chase Young has today been dealt to the 49ers for a third round pick. According to Over The Cap, the trade will cost San Francisco $560,000 in salary:
Young for a 3 and a $560K salary makes that Seahawks trade for Williams look so silly
— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) October 31, 2023
Young has had injury issues in his career but he’s healthy in 2023 and has five sacks in six games. His PFF grade is 75.4. He’s seventh in the league for pressures (38) and sixth among edge rushers for hurries (27). For perspective, Boye Mafe (Seattle’s best performing pass rusher) is 29th for hurries (16) and 30th for pressures (23). As well as Mafe has played, Young’s pass rush numbers are superior (although he had a strong supporting cast in Washington and Mafe is a far better grader vs the run).
At 24-year-old and still on his rookie deal, if Young continues to be productive he will be due a big contract next off-season. That increases San Francisco’s chances of recouping a higher compensatory pick (although they would need to be inactive in free agency themselves). It’s not implausible, with Young playing across from Nick Bosa, that he will excel, sign a big deal somewhere else and the Niners will get the third round pick back in 2025. It looks like a shot to nothing.
Williams on the other hand has 1.5 sacks this season and only had 2.5 last year. His PFF grade is 67.6. You might argue sacks aren’t everything but his run-defense grade is only 59.4. His pressure percentage is just 5.8% — ranked 41st among defensive tackles. He does rank 11th for hurries (16) and 14th for total pressures (22). To me it paints a picture of a player who can be disruptive but is probably in the ‘good’ rather than ‘great’ territory, at least at this stage in his career (year nine).
At 29-years-old (30 next summer) and approaching a third contract, he’s less likely to sign another mega deal. That will make the prospect of a future high comp-pick slim. I like him as a player and am looking forward to seeing him in Seattle. I long felt the Seahawks needed another defensive tackle — but not at any cost. I do fear Williams’ best days are in the rearview mirror and they were simply too aggressive here, giving up a prized asset.
The 49ers trade feels opportunistic. Those are typically the best kind of trades. Seattle’s feels overly aggressive. Those are the types of trades that have led to mistakes being made during the Carroll and Schneider era.
It almost feels a little bit like they got carried away after the dramatic Browns win and San Francisco’s third straight loss and decided to go ‘all-in’ aggressive. They paid a premium to avoid paying Williams’ salary. The Niners, instead, seem to have got a similar financial deal for a cheaper pick with a little more patience but no-less action.
It should be acknowledged that clearly there wasn’t much of a market for Young. The Commanders moved Montez Sweat to Chicago to acquire a higher pick. Thus, they were already negotiating with teams. Compared to the Sweat deal, it almost feels like they gave Young away. It feels overly generous and the 49ers are the benefactors.
Even still, comparing the two deals, it feels just a bit too rich from Seattle’s perspective. Trading your second best off-season asset for such a short-term rental is a big call and now two things have to happen. One, Williams has to justify the move. Two, the Seahawks have to prove they are a team who should’ve even been considering making such an aggressive trade. They’re 5-2 and it’s a good start. They’ve also been very streaky, played some bad football at times and they’re about to face a gauntlet of opponents. They went from 6-3 to 9-8 last year and after making this trade, that simply cannot happen again.
Remember, they are stretched with the cap next year. Unless they’re willing to cut someone like Geno Smith, Jamal Adams or Quandre Diggs, they are going to struggle to retain Williams beyond this season. This trade is about the here and now. We need to see results on the field to justify their aggression.
I appreciate some fans will square the circle of this trade quite easily. For me, I’m just not in that headspace. I can hope for extreme success with the trade while having some reservations over the value. I think the Giants will be delighted with their return. I think the Niners will feel very happy about their trade today. I think the Seahawks overpaid and the Commanders undersold.
I really hope this trade works out for Seattle. I can’t help but feel like we’ve been here before though with similar, overly aggressive trades.
They transformed the team with sound, sensible roster construction and excellent drafting in 2022 and 2023. This move feels like a return to the iffy trades that came before their latest reset. I hope Williams can play well enough — and produce — to justify the outlay.
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Perfectly stated Rob. Kudos.
I’m in the glass half full dept for Williams’ performance. I think you’ll see an improvement in his play in Seattle.My question is whether or not Geno Smith will get us to where Pete (and John?) think we can go based on this trade. My gut tells me ‘no’ and if we don’t at least get to the NFCCG and Geno is the biggest reason why, it would’ve been better to hold on to the pick as ammo to trade up for a QBOTF.
I share your concerns at QB
The way Purdy has played lately.. it looks like the niners are going for an arms race to win the division.
kinda sucks that instead of signing frank clark.. the hawks could went for williams and sweat/young..
Sweat went for a 2nd though.. then the hawks could have possibly got the comp pick back ifnsomeone overpayed for him..
I know the hawks needed an IDL but.. how can u pass on chase young for a 3rd.. also makes the trade for clowney look silly.. and richardson.. it feels like JS is like that rich guy that sttarts to haggle then just says FK it.. u got a deal. I just want it..
I am wondering about the Williams trade in this way; Do you think that loss of a 2024 R2 pick makes it less likely that they will go QB in R1? The logic behind that is that a rookie QB may not play in 2024 and they might not want to wait until R3 to continue building the team.
It’s impossible to say. But I hope they draft a QB in the first three rounds.
Hey rob thanks for the article!
Btw in the past week my work has flagged your site for phishing and I can no longer navigate to it. Has anything you are aware of changed in the past few weeks that may have set this change off?
Not to my knowledge
Anyone else noticed anything?
Same for me in the last week.
My University has also flagged it and I have to use data to access the site.
Same at my work. Have you looked at getting a certificate for your website so it can be accessed with HTTPS?
Not necessarily the root cause, but a good security best practice nonetheless.
Can I just check, what would cause this?
Just so I can look into what the issue might be
No issues for me, but I checked the certificate and it looks like it was issued in the last week so maybe a recent update is what’s causing issues.
Weird that some of the comments suggest they can’t connect via https. Anyway here is what the certificate looks like to my browser in case anyone else spots an issue
Issued by:
Common Name (CN) R3
Organisation (O) Let’s Encrypt
Organisational Unit (OU)
Issued On Thursday, 26 October 2023 at 00:03:02
Expires On Tuesday, 23 January 2024 at 23:03:01
I’ve just ran a Malware scan on the site and it showed nothing, so I’ve contacted Google to raise that it’s being flagged (perhaps in error)
This comment has made my day.
Knowing I’m not alone has made my day. Appreciate everyone else saying something
Hope it’s resolved.
Same.
Can’t navigate to it at work. Have to use the phone.
Seconded on a great write up by Rob.
But, my friend, you have pretty perfectly crystallized the issue. This is a very good move. You can’t play 10 more games and no bye and hope the middle holds. You just can’t.
If the reason we don’t succeed this year necessitates using that second we no longer have….. not great.
Per Big Mike’s great comment
I don’t know how you associate this trade with “very good.” In my book, a “very good” trade is the trade for Marshawn. The best trade this organization ever had was for Largent, for pennies. Trading for Dunlap is pretty high up there. I don’t think this signing is much better than Clowney; it’s definitely NOT better than trading for Clowney. He’s not better than Chase Young or Montez Sweat.
What if the end result is that we’re still bad up the middle and down two picks. You can’t sit back and say, “Oh well, if we needed those picks, that’s not a great sign.” You can turn a pick into a player in more ways than one. You can’t pick up a guy doing medicore work for more than he was purchased previously; that’s just bad business.
Full stop. I was/am against the trade.
Buy its happened so I’m trying to see the positive.
I commented days back that I did not think the team was any one player with a third round or higher draft pick away from greatness. I still contend it is not.
I’d much rather have a TE, an ILB, with dim reports on Lucas possibly a RT in 2024 than a old DL for 10 games where we have to find every metric to support the trade other than counting stats because those numbers are not good and haven’t been for a while.
Quick look at OTC seems to indicate that even though the 9ers cap situation is worse than ours next year, they can restructure their way to another $80+m in cap space. Lots of levers to pull. So, they might be able to re-sign him.
Our trade and the Young trade are apples to oranges. Williams is an IDL and Young an edge. Its also been reported that multiple teams were interested in Williams and almost nobody but the 49ers wanted Young. A third was the going rate for Williams and we had to up it to a 2nd to secure the trade AND get the Giants to eat all but vet minimum salary. At 29, if its less likely that Williams signs a mega deal its probably more likely that he resigns with us compared to Chase with the 49ers – with 5 sacks already, if Chase finishes strong the 9ers probably have to franchise him if they can afford it or let him walk. I also think you’re really underselling how good Williams is just because his numbers don’t stack up to the numbers of an edge guy. The tape tells a different story. I don’t necessarily like parting with a 2nd either but in a draft you yourself said wasn’t very deep, it seems a lot less painful to do it now.
We can still make value comparisons between players of different positions (and still both DL)
There have been no reports about the extent of interest in Young to my knowledge and very little in the way of reporting regarding interest in Williams. We don’t have to bend the truth to suit an argument.
The salary played a part in the trade but Young is also costing the Niners a paltry $560,000 so it’s a moot point in the comparison and not the great bonus some are making out. I don’t see any scenario where a R2 for a 10 game rental is justified, personally.
We currently have a projected $6.1m in effective cap space next year. Even if Williams isn’t getting a mega-deal, retaining him will be very difficult.
Well, I didn’t compare their numbers directly. That’s why I made reference to Williams’ stats and grades relative to other defensive tackles and the same for Young with edge rushers.
Let’s be right, neither of us have sat down and studied the tape.
And let’s not forget, I was the person who raised that point about the draft.
But even so, trading away premium assets deserves to be scrutinised. Which is what I am doing.
The Bears Sweat trade seems the worst trade of the three. Why wouldn’t the Bears just keep pick and be aggressive in Free Agency?
I think it’s being knocked a bit too much. They acquired a good pass rusher at a good age. They have $80m to spend next year. They have two high first round picks to use in the next draft. It’s a horrendous 2024 draft for edge rushers. I think it made sense for them.
I can’t agree more Rob.
The trade seems expensive, shortsighted and almost desperate.
A bit like they end games, I still can’t get used how they keep surprising us or, maybe to be more fair, how they manage to consistently overpay on what are so often bad trades?!
Ugh…
It feels a little like a “stars in the eyes,” “hormonal,” “let’s just GO for it,” kind of deal. Kind of like the Jamal vibe.
I am looking forward to watching him play, though. He could well be the beast in the middle that makes everybody around him a level better…
Great take, as usual. With the success of the last two drafts, I was surprised they made this deal. Maybe a change of scenery/Pete can motivate Williams and he returns to a Pro Bowl level. As do others, I worry about the QB position and hoped they would make a huge push in the upcoming draft to get a stud, but that would go against their MO which is not to draft a QB early, if at all. It’s going to be an interesting ride!
While I mostly agree with you, it should not be understated that Young garnered close to no interest. It’s not even San Francisco’s third, it’s a compensatory third (meaning more like a 3.5th).
Is Lynch a mad genius seeing what no one did? It’s possible. We got Diggs for peanuts from the Lions, and he more than offset his cost (before his extension, of course). But it’s improbable. It can be — like the Lamar Jackson free agency — that most teams didn’t realize the opportunity presented to them.
Jason may know a lot about contracts, but I think GMs know more about valuing players.
In the end, it’s an aggressive move. And if we win it all — or have Williams extend with us for 2 more years at a reasonable cost — it will be worth it.
And Mafe has been better than Young by tracking metrics. ESPN PRWR has Mafe as third best, behind Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons.
I acknowledged that in the article.
How would we know how much interest a player received? Only a player or their agent would really know that, and they certainly wouldn’t announce it.
I love your write-ups Rob, you always have a great look at things but I think you’re missing some key points here.
Chase Young is younger, but he’s not a big interior DL. In fact, you mentioned earlier how Seattle was missing 300 pounders, and that there wasn’t really any available. The draft is weak and free agency means big $$$ that we don’t have and as seen with Dremont, doesn’t guarantee returns anyway.
Young is absolutely going to require a big contract specifically because of his age and because he’s a DE. Williams is not as headline-grabbing, combined with his age and he might take a discount to play for a winner on top of that.
Williams is a year younger than Jarran Reed who is playing balls out. 3 years only puts him at 32. If you can get three solid years out of an interior DL, that’s worth a 2nd considering the rest of our defense right now.
Additionally, I think Williams will make Dremont and Mafe even better. He’s good vs the run which Chase Young is not. I don’t think we can rule out this played a factor in the premium price, also it sounded like we had competition on the bid.
I think Williams actually solves a need that could provide us the flexibility to be aggressive and go after a QB next year. I’m with you on Rattler, dude stares down the barrel of a gun every play and is still completing 70% of his passes, incredible. His arm is slick, and he’s really turned life around it looks, can’t not love that.
I completely acknowledge Seattle had a far greater need at DT. The point isn’t really to say they should’ve traded for Young instead. It’s to compare the values of the two trades to scrutinise Seattle’s deal.
He might do — but there’s nothing to suggest that is a possibility at this stage. For all we know, he’s looking forward to reaching the market.
If they can get three years out of him, sure. At the moment though it’s 10 regular season games. That’s how I feel we have to judge the deal in the here and now.
While many readers know this it should be said that Rob is so good at this sort of back and forth without being a dick. I really appreciate the discourse on this site and the way it is handled. The above comment is excellent and the response by Rob is Perfect. While I generally stay out of strong opinions and do not consider myself an expert on most of this, I just wanted to acknowledge the posters and especially Rob, our hero, for doing the hard work in such an admirable way. Thanks Rob.
Thanks DJ
Can’t disagree. I find it bonkers. Utterly bonkers. It is, safe to say, a standard Seahawks trade. Too much for too little. As soon as I saw it I knew you’d be all over it, Rob.
Not saying Williams will be a bust, or Chase would’ve been a success if he’d landed in Seattle, but we’re two draft picks down which could’ve been used more astutely when we need to be looking at our succession planning for a QB sooner not later. If Chase were available, I’d hope we at least explored the possibility.
I’ll admit I haven’t watched a ton of Giants football. PFF seems to describe Williams as solid all around but maybe not elite at anything. This is from their article on top 32 DL entering 2023:
12. LEONARD WILLIAMS, NEW YORK GIANTS
The sixth overall pick in 2015, Williams has been a high-floor player since arriving in the NFL. Throughout his eight-year career, he has never earned a PFF grade lower than 70.5. He’s solid both as a run defender and as a pass rusher and doesn’t really have a weakness to his game.
I’m optimistic that he’ll be an improvement over Mario Edwards and have enough gravitational pull to help get better looks for the rest of our DL and Edge players.
Whether he’s worth the price long term we’ll have to see!
FWIW
Interesting, appreciate the context
Although Silver did work for the team (maybe he still does?) and wrote articles for the team website — he might be being leaned on here or might’ve had a bad experience with Young
https://www.commanders.com/news/washington-football-team-partners-with-nfl-network-s-michael-silver
Or alternatively have better insights into how Young was viewed by the Commanders
Sure — but that doesn’t really need to be pointed out given Cha’s OP
To me, if they had drafted a QB last year (Levis instead of JSN), i wouldnt be upset with the Williams trade. Because you solved most of the holes with this team. Except interior Dline.
Try to contend this year, while having a young qb to learn and experience playoff football.
Now we have less draft capital to find the QB.
I think we have enough to work with as I think there’s likely to be enough talent to fall to mid-bottom of the first or top of second that it won’t require a ton to get one we like.
My hope is they are finally going to draft a QB and know who they want
It would complete the build
It’s worth mentioning that last time they built a super bowl team this is exactly what they did. Plug in a cheap rookie QB and ask him to do very little after building a juggernaut team that has the pieces to win games with poor QB play.
Fingers crossed because we certainly have the “poor qb play,” part down…..
Agreed. No matter what with their trades, the biggest hole on the team is still looking. And as of today, there is less capital that can be used to get that QBOTF.
It all comes down to that.
(Also watched Chase Daniel break down Levis’s tape and he was IMPRESSED. Guy knows his football and knows how to break it down).
Which worries me slightly.
And it’s why I felt so strongly about investing in a QB this year. Address that position, without the need to start the player immediately.
My biggest fear is having a stacked roster and not have a viable long term qb. And wasting a talented roster while they are still in their prime.
Are we gonna become like the Commanders, Saints or the Browns. Great talent all around, except QB.
Fair concern
If they don’t pick a quarterback in the first round it’s going to be a long wait till the third round.
They might trade down in R1
I’m struggling with this trade. I think this team is farther than 1 player away from be a championship team unless that player is Mahomes or Burrow. But that also means I don’t think next year’s 2nd rounder and the following year’s 5th rounder will make them a championship team either.
I think Williams makes this team much more likely to make a good run or win the SB. But I still think they’re the 3rd to 5th best NFC team, but would play the top 2 teams to really close games most of the time. And I think there are 6 teams that are better in the AFC, including our next opponent.
So, that makes a short term deal a poor decision, but not a terrible, franchise altering one. But those increased odds this year are pretty fun and gives me more hope for this season. And I can really use some short term good vibes with all the awful non-sports part of life.
I guess this says it best: “ I really hope this trade works out for Seattle. I can’t help but feel like we’ve been here before though with similar, overly aggressive trades.”
I don’t always agree with Rob, but this time, I am 100 % agree with every word in the article, and Young trade makes us look stupid, at least on paper. Hopefully, it will magically turn out great, but when we rely on magic, odds are not in our favor.
I immediately called my football buddy, who is a Commanders fan, and started yelling at him. How many times are they gonna make these bloody niners better. Trent Williams for peanuts, and now Young.
Was hoping that Rob will react to this trade, and he did not disappoint as always.
This Young LW Sweat deals make sense for every team, except for us. Chicago can afford that, and they need players. Niners despite losing 3 straight are legit contenders and are all in, They lacked sacks the last few weeks, enter Young. I watched Commanders quite a bit this year, Young looks healthy, explosive, and plays with a motor. If he does not win with speed he is constantly pushing the tackle into the QB.
Seems that Commanders are preparing for a new regime and Rivera’s days are numbered (would be somewhat comic if Bienemy’s days are numbered as well). I expected them to sell one of Sweat or Young, but not both. Too many mouth to feed in that fearsome dline, but i though they had a legit shot at the playoffs. Realistically, 8 wins should bring that 7th seed in the NFC, depending on the tie-breaks.
We needed IDl more than edge, but still, Clark needs to get in to a better shape soon. In these few snaps he played v Cleveland, I thought he reminded me the Seattle version of Ziggy Ansah.
Of course they overpaid. It’s what they do. It’s what they always do. Someone will of course post something like John Schneider is a genius. Football Einstein he is not. He’s just a GM. It’s like the entire NFL knows that Pete and John can’t help themselves. Like I said yesterday they get a little taste of sugar and they have to dip their hands into the whole honey Bowl. The NFL knows this and uses it drives up the price and John can’t help it but he has to pay it. It’s as annoying as hell. My God I’d love to sell those guys some beachfront land in eastern Oregon
Thats what I said yesterday, everybody knows if JS starts sniffing around just ask too much and wait. SEA will do it. There is no measure to their want.
I think most of us can agree this was an overpay.
Honestly I thought the Giants would get a 4th for Williams; maybe a 3rd if they paid some of his salary.
I never saw him going for a 2nd, let alone a 2nd plus.
Even if Schneider did say it was difficult to find good interior D-lineman.
While the Sweat price was high, I agree it makes sense for Chicago who will likely franchise him if they can’t sign him.
49rs get a great player at great value. Hard to find anything but positives to say about that trade.
How many can’t see how he improves their defense is beyond me.
I definitely think Williams improves our defense & at a position of need.
However, it felt difficult to judge our team through 7games to warrant paying a 2nd round price for any addition.
The team has just been a bit of a roller-coaster ride in each game.
Regardless, I’ll be excited to see how he helps the team going forward & hope he turns out to be an impact player for us.
Great article & breakdown of the trades Rob.
My big concern is if they like a QB and trade down to aquire the lost draft capital; thus missing out on said QB.
At this point if they really like a QB and view him as 2nd round pick; I hope they avoid getting cute for extra picks and just take him in the 1st.
If Chase young hits what everyone thought he would be and what we saw in college because in college what I saw was an unblockable guy. And he’s still young this could happen. If it happens how are you going to play them? Because you got Nick Bosa and Young destroying your quarterback the great Gino Smith whom I believe Pete loves more than people think. Don’t be surprised if they find a way to keep Gino at the contract they want but that’s your quarterback of the future as well as present
More context:
https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/10/31/nfl-trade-deadline-notes-49ers-bills-commanders-bears
I like Josh Uche but didn’t want a rental there for a designated PR
The article headline is Tucker Carlson-ish, more red meat for the ‘fire the front office’hordes, maybe some will add the money spent on safeties, plus ‘they could have had Creed and Carter ‘. As a lurker, not a money contributor I am aware I have no rights to criticize anyone on this siteand do not have to click on this site, I stoppped following the SB Nation site because their main author was a ‘fire the front office’ cheer leader. As a fan of the Seahawks since their first day, I like more balanced reporting, not damning with faint praise, followed by a ‘but’, i.e “the throwback uniforms looked good, but the team was not perfect”.
What on earth are you on about?
I remember my first beer…
@david thompson
asking if the seahawks overpayed is what now? my word man. it’s not a spicy take, this headline and piece. you are free to fan, as we all are, but your comment makes me want to suggest that you just stick to the teams site, greg bell, and the salk show with pete carroll.
this team needs to be challenged more, than less. iron on iron, compete and that. gosh darn it i find your take bothersome. glad you wrote it but jeeeeeez.
as to the 9ers changing my feelings of the trade, this am i was bothered. on the face young is younger/better/cheaper. the price was too high for LW. now that it’s paid, i have some high hopes he’s able to spell reed. the defense is building something exciting. at least now they are much more fun to watch/root for.
Geno ain’t it. looks like pete thinks he is.
be nice if they ran the ball more.
at least the defense and this blog keeps my fandom engaged.
“Tucker Carlson-ish”
How appropriate that you would bring this guy up. Most of the people who subscribe to his rhetoric missed the critical thinking train. Based on your comments, I’ll suggest there are plenty of Seahawks sites out there where the only acceptable stance on the team is endlessly “everything is great” and where critical thinking about the team is unacceptable. It would appear that you’ll fit right in.
Okay, it appears that a borderline playoff team trading a 2nd for a 10 game rental makes perfect sense. I stand corrected.
We can also assume the unposted thought process preceding the ad-hominen attacks are also above reproach.
Hey Rob, love your perspective. Maybe Pete and John aren’t enamored with what they are seeing of the projected late first round prospects and have an eye to trade back to recoup picks and go for depth/value. As you’ve pointed out, there is a decided lack of blue chippers who grade out in the first. Seems like a high pay for a rental – but maybe they plan to trim our safety budget and try to resign him. Time will tell if this was an overreach.
I suspect they will trade out of R1.
However, I still think it’ll always be hard to justify using a R2 on a 10-game rental. That pick doesn’t have to be used on a player next year. You can trade it in the off-season for more than a rental. You can use it to move up. You could trade it for future picks. It’s an asset beyond just what’s available in the 2024 draft at the spot you’d be slated to pick.
The above comment by Rob/A-ok I think gives a good summary of how this trade can go from overpay to ok/good.
Outcomes where this trade isn’t a fleece:
1) Seahawks win the superbowl (no one complains about harvin because of that super bowl kick off return)
2) Seahawks get min 2+ years out of him playing well (lots of pressures and solid run defense). This would require a min 2 year extension after the season.
Barring those 2 above outcomes not happening, then the trade becomes a shit overpay. Currently, it is an overpay, but there are variables at play and we can’t really fully judge it until after the end of the season and we see where he goes/how he played.
He’s an FA after this year. #2 just means we made a good FA signing, which we always want to do anyway, it wouldn’t mean that we made a good trade.
I posted elsewhere for me the Hawks have to at least make the NFC championship (with LW contributing) for it to have been worthwhile, although I could see how others might require a superbowl or superbowl win.
Ya I agree with you, it turns the trade into basically a solid free agent signing. Goes from overpay to ok. Lot of downside in this deal
A kid just came here to my house in Pensacola trick-or-treating dressed as Devon Witherspoon.
Did you answer in your blog witch getup?
Pajamas, actually.
I believe that Leonard Williams only has to play as well as he has been playing this year to add A LOT more value to the Seahawks than most future Rd 2 picks. Granted, a few work out well, but the vast majority are never going to be a pro-bowl caliber DT.
Big interior DL guys who are that effective do not grow on trees, and the Seahawks are instantly better with Williams on board. The same can’t be said for nearly all Rd 2 pics (make you instantly better) and very few will ever reach his level of play.
I have a tough time comparing him to Chase Young, who is a younger EDGE. Williams is bigger and better against the run and will eat more double teams at the LOS. Young gets the luxury of many one-v-ones and is really playing mostly as a pass rusher, which means he should rack up stats.
10 games of a player with the 2023 numbers posted in this article provides a lot more value than your second most important asset in the off-season? Not sure I can get on board with that.
Not sure anyone is claiming a R2 pick makes you ‘instantly better’. The point of draft picks often isn’t to make you instantly better. But good drafting, as we’ve seen the last two years, is the best way to build and improve your roster. They just traded away a big asset.
Plus, let’s not just view that R2 as ‘one’ player. It could’ve been used to move up. You could trade down from R2 and get two players, who both contribute and provide four years of cheap club control. You could use it to trade for someone next off-season who isn’t a 10-game rental. It’s a key asset.
We can compare the value of the trades though, relative to their situations.
Williams’ run grade this year is quite poor (as noted) and he also benefited from playing next to Dexter Lawrence.
It’s 4 years (minimum 68 games) under a reasonable contract vs. 10 games. LW doesn’t have to be better than your average 2nd rounder … he has to be WAY, WAY better for this to make sense.
Great move by the Seahawks, Williams will give them what they need from the interior. The best part is that they will get a 3rd round compensatory pick at least if he leaves in the offseason.
1. They can’t get ‘at least’ a third round comp pick. A third round comp pick is the ‘most’ they can get.
2. We need to be clear about the realities of the comp pick formula. The Seahawks, to get a comp pick back, would require Williams to sign a contract with someone else. Then, they would need to be inactive during free agency themselves. That doesn’t mean not spending big. That means not signing players, period. They’d have to lose more players than they sign. So the chances of getting any comp pick are complicated and not as clear as people keep saying. To get a third rounder, it’s even slimmer. They would need Williams to sign a mega-deal, which I would suggest is unlikely at his age, a decade into the league.
My point of view is you can both question the value we gave up for Williams, and also think the Chase Young deal is not a much more favorable one.
I also don’t love giving a 2nd for Williams, but doesn’t he have much more of a pro resume as a reliable productive player? Seems like up until the first 7 games of this year – Young was pretty much thought of as a busted pick – and in the two years prior he played just 12 games total w 1.5 sacks during that time.
Again, a 3rd obviously feels much better for Williams, but I’m not sure Young is an equally valuable asset.
In fairness, Young was seen as a bust because of injuries. Now that he’s healthy, he has five sacks in six games. Whether he stays healthy or not, who knows? But the Niners only really need him to stay healthy and productive for another nine games — playing across from Nick Bosa.
SEA gave something like pk 50 plus a future 5th, SF gave something like pk 100. My abacus says LW should be that much more valuable.
That said, value includes need and individualized ROI, regardless of how much one seeks to cling to efficient market concepts.
In the getting on board concept, perhaps LW brings that fairy dust (the whole vet, character, mentor yada yada) that makes e g. D.Hall blossum, line assignments solidify, better LB opportunities, better opps for Reed and Jones etc. In that sense it makes for good fandom. I am more excited to see SEA this w.e. with LW and FC on the field than not (setting aside GM-think re:2024.
But it still smacks of JS being easy pickings whether it is overpaying to keep own, over investing in S, or any trade were they want something, because as buyers they will pay big.
In an interview earlier today, I had this to say:
Q: Toast, do you think the Seahawks overpaid for Williams?
GM: Yes
Q: But you agree that it was a move they had to make, right?
GM: For what?
Q: Super Bowl
GM: (*String of expletives*)
Q: What would you have done, smart guy?
GM: Swapped Taylor, a ‘24 2 and a ’25 5 for Sweat AND Young.
Q: But then you don’t have Williams.
GM: (*String of expletives*)
Q: What’s that you’re eating?
GM: Bite Size Snickers.
Q: How many have you had?
GM: 462
Q: Your eyes are super dilated, Are you feeling okay?
GM:
Q: Toast?
GM:
Rob, i’m not questioning your take on value, at all. I think that you are spot on and I’ve long felt that asset management has been a huge weakness of this management team. From a football perspective, do you see Leonard Williams improving the pass rush by taking some of the NT responsibilities from Jarran Reed and allowing Reed and Jones more freedom? I’m wondering if PC/JS and Hurtt see a player like Williams as the key to really unlocking what they paid for with Jones. Just a thought.
You’d have to think it would help. For what they’ve given up, you’d hope so! But yes, I think it will.
Rob, I totally agree we paid more than we should. Just change 2nd to 3rd round of seattle and trade looks good or fair.
Question to you Rob, what will be bench mark to call out this trade as good after a year?
A deep playoff run and Williams being a big factor
Thank you Rob. Let us hope we don’t regret like Peacock trade.
I am not sure that Geno is capable of a deep playoff run. If my inhibitions are accurate, the defense will not be able to show what they can do during a deep playoff run because of a sputtering, turnover-prone offense.
Just watched the Browns highlights again
Jeeze, what’s Juan Thornhill doing on the TD at the end?
I believe that’s called “The Quandre Quandry”
The Quandre Ole
Eagles and 49ers improved; the Cowboys didn’t make a move.
Panthers not making a sizeable move was a bit shocking.
However, the Bears moves really were from left field. Didn’t see them coming.
I can see why they are struggling….. the GM has blown it multiple times already.
Sadly, looks like the Eagles are cut above all the NFC and may very well be the best team in the NFL.
The Eagles look tough right now. I’m looking forward to watching them this week.
It’s fun to kick the 49ers a bit while they are losing, but they are still loaded and can beat anyone. The NFC is hard to predict, each top team has a QB with major flaws.
I don’t see the Seahawks in that top tier quite yet, but hope springs eternal.
Had a friend try to apply the following logic:
– likely preferred to give the Denver R3, which maybe would make more people feel a little better
– forced to give the R2 instead for $10MM in cap (which theoretically could be rolled over for signing said player or another next season)
– so Giants paid $10MM to move up from say pick 70 or so to pick 55 or something, plus another $1MM for the higher slot value of the pick
Another point he mentioned:
– Good DTs drafted in R2/R3 rarely produce at LW level their first year or even two
– So above average 3-down DT snaps is more like R1 DT expected production
It’s a whole lot of brain pretzeling to try and justify what ultimately is dependent on post-season success and a friendly resigning or comp pick.
They don’t have the Denver R3, I believe it’s the latter of the two Denver has. So it’ll be New Orleans’ pick unless the Broncos go on a run
I’d also stress a DT this blog really liked in R2 this year is currently grading as the #12 ranked DT
I’ve seen it reported differently, but I think you’re right on the pick which makes the jump bigger.
Benton def the one that got away- Charb was a consolation prize and I have no doubt he was on their list and referenced post draft conference.
Separately, it’s odd that John specifically stated he wanted more picks for 2024 which he viewed “as a strong class”. This backtracks that a bit, but you’ve also pointed out the draft looks pretty weak at this point.
Tell your friend you have an internet friend who thinks:
1. A second round player gets paid basically 10 million for four years of club control.
2. With that pick you can get up to 68 regular season games lined up in front of them.
3. I’m selfish. There I said it. I like the draft that’s why I’m here. And I hate watching names I know drift on by.
4. I also dont really care for the old and like watching young teams develop.
5. Comparative performance between positions via different rounds is not what’s at stake. One that’s extremely hard to correlate. Two, Seattle does need DT depth which is NOT given by this trade beyond 10 games. But Seattle will also need other positions after that time as well and now we have one less way to do that.
Important
He was quite proud in all this justification- I sided with your 5th point- there is nothing guaranteed beyond this season so it’s a 10 game rental for an R2 (with apologies to R5)
Well, one thing about overpaying is that if you have a reputation for doing it people always answer the phone.
Things that bug me:
1. The assumption that if the acquisition doesn’t work out, we automatically get a 3rd round comp pick.
2. That Acquiring a 29 year old possible rental on a team with cap/roster questions shouldn’t be questioned.
Things I like:
1. The NFC is pretty open- nfl has a lot of good teams but non have looked unreal this year.
2. Have loads of tootsie pops, never buy them except for HW but I’ll be taking what’s left. Will be enjoying with Macallan 22 year.
💯💯💯💯💯
(Although I’ve never had a tootsie pop)
It’s a tootsie roll inside a dum-dum.
They used to make them with gum in the middle called a blow-pop.
But in the age of the internet, I think a blow pop is something else.
Comp is more like a 5th imo. Sea basicaaly gave NY the comp they would lose PLUS a 2nd. SF gave them just the comp they would lose. SF basically is getting a zero cost rental, except the 1 yr delay on the r3 comp.
Assuming the young edge does better in FA than the old IDL.
Are we not overrating Young a bit? Washington didnt pick up his 5th year option. Injuries yes, but you pick up that option and see, unless you’ve pretty much lost hope in the player.
I did a little research to try and figure out who the eight running backs at the Senior Bowl might be this year. The list is depressing and shows how weak this draft might be. The top eight rushers of the 46 on Jim Nagy’s watch list, as of a week ago, were as follows.
1) Blake Corum, Michigan
2) Tahj Brooks, Texas Tech
3) Jo’quavius Marks, Mississippi State
4) Ray Davis, Kentucky
5) Jalen White, Georgia Southern
6) Treshaun Ward, Kansas State
7) Jaylon Knighton, Southern Methodist University
8 Jermaine Brown, University of Alabama-Birmingham
There are about 40 underclassmen I would draft before any of these guys, except for Ray Davis.
Your observations are accurate, and the questions you raise are valid.
For me, three things work against the value aspect of the trade, which I present in order of how I perceive their impact on value to be.
1. Reality check. Seattle aren’t really contenders. Notwithstanding the 5-2 record and leading the division, they’ve shown dreadful inconsistency — on both sides of the ball. They may be in a good spot nearly halfway through the season, but are they really set up to take advantage of their good fortune, or will they wither down the stretch, as they did last year? It’s a big question on which to gamble a R2 pick for what is at this point a 10 game rental.
2. Age. Williams is 29 going on 30 and it’s a fair assessment his best football is behind him. No doubt he has the ability to contribute, and do so immediately. But even looking past this season, and that’s another big question, what level of performance can we reasonably expect of him? What level of performance do we need from him long term to justify the R2 expenditure?
3. Cap considerations. Not this season. But having already established this trade will be hard to justify if Williams isn’t extended, it will be a problem next year. You’ve already laid out in detail in previous articles the litany of FAs this team needs to deal with, one way or another. And then there are the massive expenditures at SS/FS and QB just to name a few. I don’t know what Williams’ expectations are by way of a new contract, but I think extending him sooner favors Seattle in that he’s not having his best year (or two) so his market value is attenuated, and he may yet end up proving essential to the defense on a team that makes a legit shot at the NFCC, and thus would hold tremendous leverage in negotiations after the season.
However, I am by nature an optimist, and there are reasons to support the trade. Here are my top three:
1. Positional need. From the draft to preseason to right now, the one true need this team has (outside a franchise QB) is strength and power at the DT position. Even with Reed and Edwards playing as well as they have, they’re too thin (literally and figuratively) inside on the DL. Williams instantly corrects that weakness. Through the end of this season, at least.
2. Age. Yes, it’s also a concern. But at the same time, being a young 30 to start next season (again, if they extend him) isn’t like he has only 1 or 2 seasons left. As we’ve seen with others at his position, it’s possible to remain an effective defender into one’s mid 30s. Especially in a rotation heavy scheme like Seattle favor. If past is prologue, Seattle won’t be looking to sign him longer than 2-3 years anyway.
3. Cap considerations. I’ll say it again, but in a different way: I’d rather tie up, say, the roughly $10m currently in Diggs in the DT position. So if signing Leonard Williams to an extension forces Seattle to make some tough decisions elsewhere like that, I say so be it.
In the end, it’s too early for anyone to say if the deal was worth it. We need to see him play, and see Seattle figure out how to keep him past the end of the season. But it’s completely fair to discuss the worth of it now. Maybe by doing so, we can establish a framework for measuring the overall value once all the pieces are in place.
I’m mostly with you on the positivity train. 5 and 2. Is pretty great. This move really could be a weight on the scale in our favor going forward. Just that slight rest, slight improved rotation.
If I step out and get a broad view I’m pretty okay with it.
You know what it is though, right. It’s just the trepidation of this type of move not really work.
I absolutely *love* the sunny side of hawks-verse and the odd need to say things like “just because it didn’t work before, doesn’t mean that’s true this time!”….It feels very reductive.
I’m just in the let’s get to Sunday and let it rip. Giants run similar stuff to us, he’s in game shape, lets see him in action.
How accurate are PFF grades? I picture an intern being the one actually scoring. It’s not like PFF has massive income to paid qualified scouts six figures plus to do these.
Somewhere between burning bush infallible stone tablets and wet finger in the air. I find them directionally accurate but difficult to use as a measure of impact in the game.
I get the impression if Williams was getting an 85 grade we wouldn’t be asking this question
Or 30. PFF is okay to spot really good players and really bad players. Their intermediate scores have no actual meaning.
Sidenote:
Was thinking just the other day that there is a strange rise of new data points that seems to follow a line on a chart with the growth/explosion of voices talking about football.
Pff, qbr, pressures, pass rush win rate, S2, DVOA, I see some folks using instead of PFF what seems like an ESPN derived metric, and many more.
There’s no point to this comment other than it generally feels like it muddies the conversation a bit from objective good to subjective good in regards to players and teams.
Personally I think there are too many metrics now — and it gives people a chance to basically find something (anything) to backup whatever argument they want to make. I don’t exclude myself from that, either.
Geno gone. Adam’s gone . Diggs gone. Throwbacks here to stay. Pretty effin simple. Nuff said💪
If a borderline playoff/playoff team offers the Frank Clark trade package for DK in the offseason (a 2024 1st rounder, swap of 2024 3rd rounders, and a and a 2nd in 2025, would you take it? I’m not advocating for trading DK at all, it was just a thought since he will have 2 years left on his deal and will cost a lot of money to resign in a couple years.
Raiders just fired their HC Josh McDaniels and GM David Ziegler
I don’t know how hard it is to work with Mark Davis but they have had pretty lame GM’ing since forever.
And Josh McDaniels is not a head coach. Some folks are not and should never be.
Hey Rob,
If the Seahawks went from a 3rd to a 2nd in exchange for about ~9.35 MM in cap savings, is that good value just on the cash for picks portion? The only point of reference I can recall is in 2018 when the Browns “bought” a 2nd rounder from the Texans by taking on Brock Osweiler and ~10 MM against the (then lower) cap. That Browns pick ended up being #35 overall and Nick Chubb.
I think any time a rebuilding team does that, with cap space to burn, it makes 100% sense. The Browns’ deal was excellent for them, buying a second rounder. This is a great deal for the Giants.
The Seahawks are not in a position where they can ‘buy’ picks because of their cap space so they’re in a different position. But draft picks are the most important currency for teams.
I said weeks ago that getting Williams would put hawks over the top. Great trade we have chance to make a run. Maybe not win it all but at least win a playoff game or two. Overpay for sure but I think it was worth it.
This trade has to deliver more than a solitary playoff win. This is Rams 2021 territory aggression.
And it won’t stop the offense being as streaky as it is
Personally I don’t think in any shape or form, based on the way they’ve played so far, this team was one player away
Rob,
I have been a follower since about 2010 and have always appreciated your mindset and choosing of words. I still can’t fathom that people can’t comprehend what you are saying objectively. Removing emotions from the situation, what we gave up for Leonard Williams was a desperation overpay. I understand the “Giants are eating his contract” but was a potential 10 game rental of Leonard Williams, worthy of giving up a top 64 pick? I don’t think so at all.
I look at the Chase Young trade, and can easily see that if he doesn’t stick in San Francisco, that his marketability is greater than Leonard Williams on the free market. Still, I can’t see how people don’t understand that. I know that Williams fills a bigger need for us, but I think Young would’ve been a wiser trade or we may have been better off not trading for Williams at all.
If Leonard Williams plays well, and we end up re-signing him, I think I feel a bit better about the compensation. In my perfect world, we go with a cheaper quarterback (Lock or someone like that), and draft a QB early versus Geno Smith. I also understand there’s no guarantee in that end us having that second round pick would’ve made the transition to future a little bit easier.
Thanks House
For some reason this fan base in particular is suspicious of critical thinking. We talk about positives all the time. For years I was accused of being too positive. As soon as we discuss things in non complimentary terms, the accusations come out. Even when we are having a nuanced debate with reasoned argument, which we are here whether people agree or not. I get accused of having mental health problems or issues at home whenever I do an article like this. It’s so f-ing tiresome. All because I want to debate the value of two trades.
Saying the Hawks trade is silly, is silly in itself.
The Hawks don’t need an EDGE, they need interior, so that jackass that tweeted that has put his ridiculous credibility into the shitter.
He isn’t saying the Seahawks need an edge
He’s saying it’s silly because they overpaid
I’m just going to add this. Take a look at all the teams out there. No team that was dominant early are any more. SF now looks middling, same with Philly.
Ten games left. ANYTHING can and WILL happen. Injuries, teams depth coming into play. Nothing is ever certain in this game.
The Hawks may get it all together on offense and be unstoppable, who knows?…We have this gauntlet of good teams coming up and even though the win vs. Cle. was suspect, in the end it was a win, which is ALL that matters.
I’ll take the interior pressure with Williams over Young off the edge for THIS team all day and night.
It’s not about trading for Young or Williams
It’s all about the value of the Williams trade
Its all F relative if you got a leak in your toilet and spend $50 bucks, your Wife is happy your kids arnt pissing off the porch ,your good!
Meanwhile Biff over there your next door Neibor has the same problem but got a Tiger…fror free in a shiny Freakn cage ..Hey kids look at that F Tiger
Agree with you Rob on the trade value aspect.
BUT – the most compelling (possibly copium tinged) reasons for optimism on the Leo trade in isolation:
1. PFF’s IDL pass rush evaluation grades Mario Ed and Reed nicely, and Williams pretty nicely too factoring difficulty of assignment – and then has Dre Mont Jones hovering on the outskirts of the right quadrant too.
The idea of adding Williams’ output to the other three is intriguing.
2. Pre-season when we were losing our collective sh*t about a lack of action at NT, what would we have said about this acquisition? I think we’d have been pretty stoked.
At the point the IDL was a real area of weakness and concern. Mario was viewed as largely washed and Reed was being judged on Packers numbers, the run-D’s rep was in tatters.
Today we are adding top-10 IDL (albeit descending) to a surprising area of strength.
3. Rob’s own point is key for me here. The quality of the 2024 draft. What does a late 2nd pick look like – esp. at an ultra premium position like IDL? By the sounds of it we’re talking a ‘Rob’s grade Round 3’ aren’t we – if not lower.
4. The final point is the stuff on comp picks which I don’t fully understand so will leave to others but plenty of talking heads are describing this deal as ‘essentially swapping picks’ a 2nd for a 3rd (in the case of Williams signing with another team in March) – and basically dropping 10-15 spots for 10 games of Williams. I’m not sure how accurate that is, but it’s a framing that certainly paints this trade in a much safer light (more of a ‘shot to nothing’ as Rob described the SF trade). Interested in others thoughts on that.
Overall I am prob a bit more glass half full so I like the aggression here. I think it sends a great message to the locker room where ‘always compete’ means more than usual. This is not just another building year but we’ve got a shot to do something special in a weaker than expected division. It puts us ahead of schedule in my eyes.
*top-10 IDL
I just mean a past top 10 draft talent, not current
Some thoughts in response…
It is — but not at any cost. And I believe the price paid deserves scrutiny.
I would’ve voiced similar concerns about the price for a rental. It’s worth noting, though, that a trade in pre-season would’ve been a 17 game rental. Now it’s only a 10 game rental. So the goalposts have moved a bit. I still would’ve said a R2 and R5 pick is too much.
You don’t need to take a DT in round two (although as it happens, I think that range could provide value at DT next year). I would recommend considering this — I had Abraham Lucas as a fringe first rounder. He went in round three. I had Damien Lewis as a legit top-50. He was the 69th pick. I had Bobby Wagner in round one in 2012. He was pick #47. If someone wanted to take my view on this — which is up to them, I’m not saying anyone has to — my take would be that while it’s not a deep draft class, I’m not willing to write-off that there wouldn’t be very attractive options in round two for Seattle at this stage. And that’s before we even get into the fact that the R2 pick is an asset on its own that can be used in a multitude of ways (trading for a longer term player, trading up, trading down) so it’s not just about what would be there in R2.
I’m afraid this isn’t accurate at all and it’s something that needs to be pointed out. The only way for the Seahawks to get a third round comp pick for Williams would be for him to sign a mega contract in the off-season somewhere else and for the Seahawks to be totally inactive in free agency.
Case in point, the only players who generated third round comp picks this year were Christian Kirk and Brandon Scherff. Kirk, if people recall, re-set the market at receiver. The chances of Williams being paid upwards of $18-20m next year are slim to none. So the idea of getting a third rounder is for the birds I’m afraid.
They could get a lower pick (round five for example). However, in order to do that, they would need to not sign any free agents themselves — or lose other free agents and basically have a short-fall. That would amount to weakening the team, possibly significantly, without your second best pick in the 2024 to draft a replacement.
So the comp pick situation needs to be understood. It is not what many people think. It will be difficult for the Seahawks to get something for Williams and there’s barely any chance of a high pick. So they most certainly have not ‘dropped 10-15 spots’ for 10 games of Williams.
Further to that, just for clarity, the Seahawks don’t have Denver’s R3 pick from the trade this year. They have New Orleans’ pick (or whichever is lowest). That, currently, is pick #80.
Part of me wonders if people would’ve been saying this if Jamal Adams hadn’t headed that ball on Sunday, causing a fortunate interception. They didn’t score a point on offense for three quarters until the final minute. They have been extremely streaky all year and a 4-3 record, from a non-too challenging first seven games, was very realistic.
Personally, I do not think this team is as close as some think. My fear is that they made a Rams 2021 trade when they aren’t a Rams 2021 team. They are a developing roster with young talent. If they only have Williams for 10 games, they just blew a high pick chasing something that might’ve been an illusion based on the 49ers having a surprising run and the Eagles being a bit stop-start. In a month’s time, those two teams might re-assert themselves and we might lose to the Ravens, 49ers, Cowboys and Eagles and get a dose of reality.
That’s just a perspective. I hope this trade is a roaring success. But I think these are important (and fair) points to raise.
Thanks for taking the time for the v. thoughtful response – even if you have dismantled my comforting copium blanket!
The comp pick value misreprensentation doing the rounds is particularly eye-watering as you lay it out here, and I am firmly of the Abe-Lucas-level talent in the Spring over a rental now please camp…
I guess the crux is the here and now vs. Spring point though…
As you say:
“a trade in pre-season would’ve been a 17 game rental. Now it’s only a 10 game rental. So the goalposts have moved a bit.” — I think for Pete and John they see the goalposts as having moved closer and got wider than they were in pre-season, by virture of the field of competion we are facing, as well as improvements to our run-D etc. They see a path to a deep playoff run they may not have done in the pre-season, so maybe this trade makes more sense now than then (as I said already I agree with your assessment of the trade value – even though I like the fact they’ve *done something* and made a play here).
The picture can change quickly as you say but you’ve got to play the field in front of you and right now the path looks a little more friendly for us to do something than it did a few weeks back. Will it look as friendly when others have retooled next off-season? Maybe, maybe not. You talk about being opportunistic in your piece – I see some opportunism here…
Finally I take your point on fine margins etc. with the Harry Maguire… I mean Jamal Adams sorry, pass break up… BUT that one cuts both ways. How many times does a team march up the field as easily and often as we have done this year and then failed so consistently in the red zone… It doesn’t take a huge leap to imagine Geno and Waldron and the recieving corp making some adjustments that really makes this offense start humming. It’s already statisically in good shape in terms of moving the sticks, just not in TDs.
I would’ve hoped we’d see that by now, given we’re nearly half-way through the season. But it’s possible this happens. I think an equally pressing concern though is the way they’ve gone whole halves where the offense simply doesn’t seem able to function. That has to change.
I’ve been deep in my underground bunker, reviewing tape, pouring over analytical data, sucking down energy drinks like water, and I think I’ve finally cracked the code of how to get the offense on track. It’s ingenious.
RUN
THE
FOOTBALL
ok Cha come outside and get some sunshine
your work is done
Delving deep into the ins and outs of players grade and efficiency is an area of the game i don’t put a lot of time into and dont have a lot of knowledge.
but i did look a some simple stats on each player since 2020
LW: Games: 53 Total tackles: 204 Solo tackles: 102 Assist tackles: 102 Sacks: 22
CY Games: 34 Total tackles: 90 Solo tackles: 62 Assist tackles: 28 Sacks: 14
these would suggest that LW is more reliable and more consistent, and without a RRP on players they are only worth what you are willing to pay and Seattle maybe paid a little extra for that reliability and consistency.
Also my brother lives in Jersey City and is a often attending Giants games (cheap tickets on the seconds marketplace) and he has always said the LW is the only decent reliable player they have…
There’s a serious lack of context with those stats though given how little Young played
It’s why I used the stats I did in this piece
these no lack of context for LW as he has played almost all games and probably not for CY either as he is often injured both of those stats are absolute
You can’t just compare stats that way though if their situations are totally different. It doesn’t work Matty.
As things currently stand, the discrepancy in value between the two trades seems fairly obvious. We can hope that Williams can make an impact and plays 10+ games as a Seahawk. Nevertheless, this is further evidence that allocating nearly 25% of your cap to safety is not a sustainable way to build a contender.
Yep…the whole reason we had to “pay more” in draft picks is because of our continued poor management of the cap over the years.
And its not juat the ridiculous safety contracts. Every year we have several “wtf?” contracts on our roster.
Rob this deal speaks of an overpay to me.
How much do you think that this deal was a sense of urgency for PCJS time in Seattle may be coming to an end? PC is 72 Years Old and although he jumps around the sideline and chews bubble gum with the fervor of middle schooler I think we can agree that his days of coaching are numbered. I really don’t see him extending at this point, but I surely wouldn’t oppose it if he did. This seems like a win now move for PCJS legacy than one that is best for the team in the long run IMHO.
Judy Allen will sell the team eventually. She has to. My only hope is BOZO isn’t waiting in the wings seeing as rumored bid on the Commanders was rebuffed from DS. I don;t think PCJS transition to the new ownership group when that happens.
In short I think they are going for it to leave out on a high note.
I think it’s possible some of this is down to a timeline for Carroll.
The L/W trade speaks more about how the Org views itself than how NFL trade markets work.
I’m not ready to say the L/W trade was an overpay, as of yet, rather I think this coupled with the Uche report suggests that the Seahawks paid what the market dictated for L/W. Whether it was wise to commit to make that market-value payment in light of the teams other needs is necessarily dependent on understanding how the Org views 2024 and its 3 year plan (two data points we know little about). I’m totally willing to accept that the price for L/W may have reached a point where the Org should have walked away, I’m assuming it reached a point where they could no longer swing both L/W and Uche.
* I mentioned Uche prior to reports because I view him as a superior version of Taylor.
**I am cold to the argument that the Seahawks were fleeced by the Giants in their pursuit of L/W. My reasons for this are the history of the club, my own 30 years in (a different) business, the history of the Giants, and the Jamal Adams trade; but it is all speculation.
Young and Sweat are two commodities that were had for less than than the Seahawks had L/W. Rob is 100% correct that these can be used for comparison purposes in determining the Seahawks wisdom in choosing to pay market for L/W. Yes, they play different positions, but just because a commodity is slightly different than another doesn’t mean you can’t compare them.
I’ll address the market forces second. The Org’s wisdom in making the L/W trade has been really well covered above, my summary is simple-the Org paid what it felt it could given that it believes it can win it all now, and is consciously mortgaging a loss in 2024. The Org valued 10 games of L/W over 10 games from Uche or Young/Sweat(no indication they were in on these players). Whether the Org was wise to mortgage 2024 success is a great question, and I’ve said it suggests to me that we as fans should brace for a reset year, with a lot of veteran departures. Could L/W have been had for a 3rd or less, unknown, but unlikely. Should the team have never bought L/W in the first place – great question, no other DLine moved, so he may have been the only one available, and are they really contenders? The answer to the last one will become clear over the next couple of months.
Understanding NFL market forces is a tough business for people inside the business, much more difficult for people on the outside, and a common fan has no chance.
Player evaluations for fans are based on slivers of information. I’m old enough to remember some friends running around high-fiving screaming out “We got Boz!” There is an old colleague who still won’t talk to me today because I told him Dan McGwire was going to suck. Dare I bring up the recent Jalen Carter debacle?
L/W, Young and Sweat presented 3 different commodities, which in essence are 10/9 game commodities before figuring in playoffs. Of the 3 of them, Young is the best *on paper*, why then were the Commies willing to move him, and why were no other teams in? I’ve long heard whispers and reports that Young has attitude issues and is a locker room cancer of sorts. I’m no scout, but I do pride myself on correctly identifying good line play (stressed about how far apart Rob and I will be on Verse), and I’ve never been a fan of Young’s game. Sweat was moved to a team for a very similar package as the L/W package, and that team has the ability to franchise the player, or offer a big contract, did no other contender desire Sweat’s skill set? The Sweat move struck me a bit more oddly… it suggested that the Seahawks prioritized L/W over Sweat (IDL > Edge), but was no other team willing to go late 2 for him?
Have Edge players taken a back seat to IDL in terms of market value? Does L/W have a leadership quality (or other intangible) that places him above Young/Sweat? Markets are supposed to perfectly derive value and correct themselves (see safety values PCJS!) and the NFL can be slow in this regard.
As much as I’m skeptical of a Seahawks got fleeced narrative, I’m perplexed by the 9ers are the smartest guys in the room meme. It seems to get rolled out every year since Shanny has arrived, only to get knocked down over and over. To try and list every time som Seahawks media personality or commenter or fan I know has said the 9ers are just smarter, I’d need a full page. Brock Purdy ain’t BradTana, and I doubt the whole of the NFL missed on Chase Young because they had stopped answering their phones or some nonsense.
The compensation for Young actually smacks of the 9ers giving up just enough so that the Commies could save face with their fan base. Teams that needed PR help like Young is supposed to offer include contenders: BUF, MIA, BAL, HOU, KC, LAC, DAL, MIN, GB, ATL, TB, SEA…. The injury riddled Bills weren’t willing to give up a bit more? Really? 12 other franchises made a mistake in valuation? Analysis of the market suggests that the 9ers may have overpaid for Young in context, but the cost was likely worth it to their Org in case the Young scratch off ticket pays off.
Based on the outside looking in, the NFL valued L/W more than Young, possibly more than Sweat (unclear), whether the NFL market was perfect in its analysis is something to discuss and also that time will tell. Every year, we see on this blog that the NFL is imperfect in its market evaluations. Is it ok to ask whether the NFL misvalued Young and L/W? 100%.
As a fan, I’m relieved that the 9ers weren’t able to get what I thought they would, secondary help, and instead added a player that is not as good as Bosa, plays the same position, and is one I feel the Commies traded for addition by subtraction. The NFL market forces suggest I might be right on Young, who did not command as much as teammate Sweat did. I truly hope Young is the catalyst that causes the 9ers frayed Defensive locker room to really fall apart.
My best guess is the Seahawks paid what the market commanded for L/W, it doesn’t appear to be a gross overpay. I do believe they have a realistic shot at the Super Bowl, and L/W does appear to love that needle forward in a way I’m not convinced that Uche/Sweat/Young would have. The price for L/W was steep, the wisdom of that price has me concerned, but more in an eyebrow raised way as opposed to pacing the floor.
The National Media has crowned the 9ers winners and the Seahawks losers, I think that narrative will be wrong, yet again
***of course, there is alternate universe B where the Seahawks drafted Carter and are 3-4.
damn dude that was a frikn Novel but yiour Right
its all relative
The Niners got a steal Absolutly BUT it does Not adress the issue they are having and thats on the Dbackside..they have been getting pressure already
! Seahawks overpay but got exactly what they needed . So who cares how much you spend if you got what you wanted . You can make the argument we also needed an upgrade at edge but that was prroblem number 2 .
Hey Rob love the article, besides qb what do you think the Seahawks need to be a Super Bowl team
If they get a top QB that might be enough
Drafting well gives us the opportunity to take a swing at LW. When Undrafted players (i.e Bobo) play meaningful snaps, I’m ok with a risky trade. JS must have faith in his scouts to deliver another stellar class. Let’s go!
Seems fairly simple: assuming we can’t retain Williams next year we gave up long term contributors like the next Derrick Hall, Boye Mafe or Kenneth Walker (2nd rounders) for 10 games of Williams.
Or, we conceivably gave up the asset we’d need to get a Quinn Ewers or QBOTF.
This trade feels reckless for a team that is not likely ready to make a run at another ring. Draft capital is like credibility, you earn it in inches but give it away in miles.
Buckle up, as I suspect this trade won’t age well during the tough next half of the season and our future isn’t quite as bright.