I’ve seen a lot of people referring to the Seahawks ‘being able to get a third round comp-pick’ next year if Leonard Williams isn’t re-signed beyond the 2023 season.
I wanted to break it down and talk through the reality of the situation.
The comp-pick formula is determined by net-loss of players (who you lose vs who you sign) and contract value. As OverTheCap explains:
In plain English, if a team loses more players that qualify as CFAs than it signs during free agency, that team is eligible to be awarded compensatory picks in the following NFL draft.
It’s quite a complicated formula overall and the explainer that OverTheCap provides is tricky to decipher, even though they’ve clearly done their best to explain things in laymen terms.
I’ll try and address the situation with Williams and Seattle as best I can here.
The first thing that would need to happen for the Seahawks to get a third round-comp pick would be for Williams to sign a mega contract with another team.
This year, the only players who generated third round comp-picks were Christian Kirk and Brandon Scherff. Kirk, if people recall, re-set the market at receiver in 2022 with a contract worth $18m a year. Scherff signed a contract worth $16.5m a year.
The comp-pick formula isn’t just dictated by average salary. For example, Kirk’s $18m-a-year deal is smaller than Von Miller’s $20m-a-year deal, yet Kirk gained Arizona a third-rounder and Miller only delivered a fifth-rounder to the Rams. This is because the formula takes into account positional salary percentile’s. Kirk’s contract put him in the top percentile at his position. Miller’s deal put him below the 90th percentile for a pass rusher. That helps dictate the pick you receive.
For it to even be a possibility that Williams could deliver a third-round compensatory to Seattle in 2025, he would need to agree to a contract that made him one of the highest paid defensive tackles in the NFL.
It’s not impossible. Javon Hargrave signed a $21m-a-year deal with the 49ers this year at 30-years-old. He is being projected by OverTheCap to earn the Eagles a third-round comp pick in 2024. Williams also turns 30 next June.
However, Hargrave anchored Philadelphia’s defensive line on the way to a Super Bowl run. He was one of the stand-out D-liners in the league and had 11 sacks.
Williams has 1.5 sacks for the season so far, with ten games to go. It’s unlikely his production will match Hargrave’s. It would also be some achievement to reach Hargrave’s level of importance to Philadelphia in 2022.
The other highest paid players at defensive tackle are some of the expected names (Aaron Donald, Chris Jones) and talented younger players who have just signed their second contracts (Quinnen Williams, Jeffrey Simmons, Daron Payne). I think it’s more realistic that Williams would fall in one of the next two tiers in free agency, given his age and the fact he’s approaching his third contract.
Dalvin Tomlinson signed a $14.25m-a-year contract in Cleveland this year as a free agent, while David Onyemata moved to Atlanta for $11.6m. Tomlinson turns 30 next year and Onyemata turns 31, so they are similar ages. Tomlinson had three sacks in 2022 and had a strong PFF grade of 77.1 with the Vikings. Onyemata had five sacks for the Saints but only registered a PFF grade of 64.0.
It’s very possible that Williams could earn more than both players but I do think this is a realistic projection of his price range, based on the information we have today.
Dre’Mont Jones obviously got a higher salary when he joined the Seahawks ($17.1m per year) but it’s worth noting he is only 26, it was his second contract and he had seven sacks last season.
If Williams was to sign a contract comparable to Dalvin Tomlinson’s, or between Tomlinson’s salary and Dre’Mont Jones’ salary, he could potentially net a fourth or fifth round comp-pick if he departs at the end of the season. Even if he matches Jones’ $17.1m salary, the Broncos would’ve only netted a fourth-round comp-pick based on salary percentiles.
Onyemata is projecting to gain the Saints a fourth round pick next year. Tomlinson would’ve also gained Minnesota a fourth rounder but the fact they signed Marcus Davenport to a similar-sized contract meant the two deals cancel each other out (thus, no comp-pick).
JC Jackson netted the Patriots a fourth rounder this year when he signed a $16.5m-a-year deal with the Chargers. Chandler Jones and Von Miller will gain the Cardinals and Rams a fifth rounder each. It’s very plausible Williams could do the same for Seattle if he leaves the team next year but a third-round pick seems pretty unlikely.
The next thing to consider is any comp-pick would be dependant on the Seahawks themselves being inactive in free agency. If they signed an outside free agent on a deal comparable to Williams, they wouldn’t receive a comp-pick for him.
It’s very likely the Seahawks will not be active in free agency in 2024. OverTheCap projects they only have $6.1m in effective cap space. They will raise another $5.9m when they cut Bryan Mone. So they basically have $12m to spend in free agency.
With such a long list of pending free agents, it is going to be really difficult for the Seahawks to be add an outside player you’d consider a ‘net gain’. What I mean by that is, their effective cap space will be used to re-sign or replace the following:
Bobby Wagner
Jordyn Brooks
Noah Fant
Damien Lewis
Colby Parkinson
Phil Haynes
Drew Lock
Evan Brown
Darrell Taylor (RFA)
Mario Edwards Jr
Deejay Dallas
There are many other names to list, including some ERFA’s, but these are the key names.
Without a second round pick, it’s one-pick harder to use the draft to replace these players. That means there will almost certainly be a big off-season focus on retention and/or replacing in a cost-effective way. There’s a ton of work to do.
Replacing any of the players above would not impact the comp-pick situation for Williams because you’d be cancelling out the comp-pick you’d receive for any of the free agents lost.
This means two things:
1. It’s going to be difficult to re-sign Williams after this season. The money simply isn’t there and neither is the means to replace your long list of free agents if you use most of your available cap on keeping him.
2. There’s a good chance the Seahawks will receive a comp-pick (likely a fourth or fifth rounder in 2025) if Williams walks.
That, I think, is the top and bottom of it.
I’ve seen people talking about the expectation or likelihood of Williams being kept. I think that is hope more than the reality of the situation based on Seattle’s cap.
Dre’Mont Jones’ cap-hit this year is $10m. If Williams was to sign a similar contract, or even slightly less, he’d basically be using up all of Seattle’s available cap.
The only way around this would be to start hacking at your roster, such as cutting Geno Smith as a post-June 1st agreement to save $22.5m, cutting Jamal Adams in the same way to save $16.5m or parting with Quandre Diggs outright to save $11m.
These are not implausible moves but anyone speaking optimistically about retaining Leonard Williams should be up-front about the fact that other expensive veterans would need to go first. Keeping the full band together, as it is right now, is for the birds.
It’s also worth noting that $12m to keep or replace most of Seattle’s other free agents isn’t going to be enough. So even before we consider an extension for Williams, the chances are one of Smith, Adams or Diggs will need to go, or the Seahawks will need to find other ways to create cap-space (basically lending on the credit card, which has taken plenty of other teams into cap hell).
Therefore, I would suggest the following. I don’t think the Seahawks have traded for Williams with any specific, cast-iron plan for beyond this season. I think they have rented him for 10 games and will check the lay of the land at the end of the year. They will weigh-up his impact vs the impact of players like Smith, Adams and Diggs when making a financial call for 2024.
Thus, this trade — to me — should be very specifically referred to as a rental and an aggressive move to try and win now with no clarity on anything beyond the end of this season.
This is a ‘Rams 2021’ type trade. It’s their version of Von Miller. I’m sceptical the Seahawks are in a similar place to the Rams two years ago and their ‘F-those picks’ mentality. They’re 5-2 but have played some bad football in multiple games. The offense has had miserable full halves against the Rams, Bengals and Browns.
The Williams trade will upgrade and improve the defensive line. However, in order to truly justify the deal, the offense will also need to avoid being so streaky going forward. It’s no good the defense playing well if the offense struggles to convert a third down for two quarters (or more).
The Rams’ aggressive approach won them a Super Bowl and as such, was justified. The Seahawks don’t need to win a Super Bowl for the Williams deal to be viewed positively — but they do need to prove they’re a serious NFC force with results in the coming weeks. They need to be more than a mere sixth or seventh seed playoff outfit, a Wilcard round playoff team or a fairly non-competitive divisional round team (as they were in the final years of the Russell Wilson era).
I will be comfortable with this trade if Williams plays very well, the Seahawks take a leap forward overall and he is eventually extended. Otherwise, I think scrutinising the value of the deal (as we have done) was the right thing to do. A ten game rental to be marginally better or retain the status quo, for the price of a second round pick and swapping a 2025 fifth for a fourth or fifth round comp-pick, would feel like an overpay.
In order to extend him, I would have no issue with the Seahawks parting with Geno Smith this off-season if he continues to play the way he is currently. I think you can find a cheaper bridge quarterback who can throw nine touchdowns and six interceptions in seven games. If the defense is the identity and if the QB essentially needs to be a point guard for an array of talented weapons — then it’s harder to justify a $33-41m salary for Smith in 2024 based on his production this year and the salary-cap challenges facing the Seahawks.
Smith, as we’ve said all along, is in a prove-it year. He has a big 10 games coming up against some tough opponents. He needs to keep the offense on schedule, utilise the weapons he has better and limit the turnovers and turnover-worthy plays. Shane Waldron also has to do a better job assisting Smith in this task.
If he succeeds, they will need to find money from elsewhere. If he doesn’t succeed, I would say it’d be better to have a cheaper bridge quarterback and then make drafting a QB the priority. I think it should be anyway. It’s time. Select one within the first three rounds, invest in a player at the position. It’s a deep class at quarterback and it’s time to identify someone they like, even if they don’t start immediately.
I will post an article tomorrow with further thoughts on this but I do think there will be players they will believe are worthy of selecting in their draft slots next year, even without a second round pick.
It’s also possible that 2024 could mirror 2012 — where they had a strong overall roster then added a talented young rookie quarterback. That formula won a Super Bowl in 2013. As they aggressively invest in their defense, one possible plan could be to try and emulate 2012. Financially at least, it makes sense.
A final note and a clarification. People have been talking online about Seattle owning Denver’s third round pick. To be clear, they do not. They will receive the lower of Denver’s two third round picks. At the moment, this would be the pick Denver acquired from New Orleans. As of today that would be pick #80, not Denver’s selection at #71.
So if the season ended now, Seattle would possess picks #25, #80 and #89 in the first three rounds. They would’ve given the Giants #58 in the Leonard Williams trade.
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“Shane Waldron also has to do a better job assisting Smith in this task.”
AKA RUN THE BALL MORE THAN 13 TIMES!
This defense can be top 5. The offensive line deserves a ton of credit and looks plenty adequate. Weapons galore. Geno just needs to take what the defense gives him and not turn the ball over. 2012-2013 formula.
I’m bullish on the defense but I believe it has a tough road ahead to be top five.
Currently:
#8 rush defense ( that was a fall after Cleveland)
#21 pass defense. This the “good….but….” commment: Jones, the red rifle, Dobbs, pj walker
The stat I do like….#11 defense in points against. That stat is great and there’s some data to suggest this could be a real strength of the team.
For me this is a feature, not a bug. This roster needs serious trimming. And to the extent it’s unavoidable not to overpay at a position group, I’d much rather that group be the DTs than the Safety room ffs. Geno’s next contract doesn’t seem like the team’s biggest stupid expenditure next to Diggs and Adams.
100% agree this may be an intended feature as the team uses 2024 to course correct at a number of positions – Safety being first among them.
Of the pending FA group the only player I’m currently interested in retaining for something other than a ridiculous discount is Lewis.
Clean books moving forward in 2025, with the QBotF installed would allow room for strategic extensions of the 2022 class, and plan for 2023, etc…
In no order Lewis and Brooks for me. Though Brooks presents to me as “player to most likely get tippy top money from our FO,” and for that I’d probably be out.
Brooks, Lewis, Parkinson and Edwards Jr (never thought I’d say that) in order of importance for me (and of course the right price).
I don’t know that Brooks will get stupid money even if he finishes the year at the current pace. I could see the FO inking a deal with him before the next offseason.
Parkinson as well. Edwards Jr? Maybe.
I’d love for them to exercise control with Brooks. Exercising control with contracts has not really been a strength.
Fant is #2 for me, but the discount would have to be substantial.
Not parkinson? Feels like he would be cheaper for similar results.
I feel like Fant would want to move to a team that will actually throw him the ball. He’s too talented for this offense.
He carefully eluded as much in a recent podcast.
Blitzy the Clown , I know your profession, good one.
Really worried they are going to overspend on LB and TE next year. We don’t have any starting LBs under contract for 2024. Despite his recent good play, Brooks has shown enough issues over his 4 years that I wouldn’t want him back on a big contract. Wagner has been better than I anticipated, but he also has limitations that I think a lot of fans have been glossing over and an extra year on the tires isn’t going to make things better. There isn’t anyone waiting in the wings here either. Would love to see them go young, fast, violent here – but I don’t think they will.
Fant and Parkinson are free agents and they could save $7M by cutting Dissly next year. I’d expect Parkinson to be cheap and come back. Fant is very talented but underutilized as a receiving YAC TE by the Seahawks. Will be interesting to see if they keep Dissly. He’s pretty important to the team, but his contract never made sense and he’s had so many injury issues. It’s really hard to go young on TE given the way the Seahawks use the position.
Absolutely insane numbers tied up in Diggs/Adams/Love next year. Current 2024 cap hit of $56M+ for those three alone. I could see them extending Diggs and Love to kick that can even further down the road. But just a gross mismanagement of resources on the position.
Lewis is the priority re-sign for me.
Well put together Rob. We’ll make a cap man out of you yet!
The only thing I’d add is I firmly believe the Seahawks structured the Geno contract to be renegotiated in 2024. Those ‘performance escalators’ were never going to be paid as the contract laid out. If he did get the full $46m (which is all but impossible at this point), they would just tear up the contract, rework it, give him some of that money as a bonus and likely have a cap hit of around $18-22m in 2024 and graduating up in 2025/26.
Ironically, they probably would be in a better cap situation if Geno matched his 2023 numbers and the offense was rocking.
Interesting. Thanks Cha.
I still don’t know how the Seahawks and Geno’s agent got this past the NFL and NFLPA. I wish I was a fly on the wall when this got rubber stamped.
Fantastic analysis, thank you for this. As for the comp formula, i know that contract total figures and % of compensation within position group are the drivers of the actual round received. I am not too clear on the “netting” that happens when you have free agents signing with other teams, and you sign up free agents. Say for simplicity you get a FA with a relatively low salary, and you loose Williams with a top salary….don’t these 2 options cancel each other out? (so, no compensation)….or does the formula also assign a relative value to each player based on their merit, despite of the total number of ins and outs? I seem to recall that the issue with Richardson was that we lost him for a good salary (albeit, there was some contract magic that made the actual number big in total terms, but smaller in compensation-related terms) but then we hired a bunch of nobodies that canceled the potential comp.
“cutting Geno Smith as a post-June 1st agreement to save $22.5m, cutting Jamal Adams in the same way to save $16.5m or parting with Quandre Diggs outright to save $11m.”
I agree with doing all three of these things.
For a more cutthroat team this works. Reservations about whether or not Seattle cuts Adams, Diggs at all….I just don’t see John and Pete being d***s and releasing Geno to scrounge around on the market after teams have mostly settled rosters or drafted QBs.
💯 Yes, please!!!
Cut and resign Smith to something like $15-20M (doubt he gets more elsewhere). With Mone, Adams and Diggs gone, that’d give us nearly $45M to resign a few players (Wager at a discount, maybe Williams/Brooks/Lewis/Edwards at the right price), draft a QB and make a couple strategic additions.
It’s time to be ruthless!
Somehow, this trade leads me to think the Hawks will trade down from the “25th” pick
Maybe. If they drop ten spots it nets us a mid third rounder. Is this worth it vs a first? Remains to be seen.
Was my first thought as well. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them slide out of the 1st round and then come up from their NO 3rd round pick. Ultimately two 2nd round picks wouldn’t surprise me.
“Therefore, I would suggest the following. I don’t think the Seahawks have traded for Williams with any specific, cast-iron plan for beyond this season. I think they have rented him for 10 games and will check the lay of the land at the end of the year. They will weigh-up his impact vs the impact of players like Smith, Adams and Diggs when making a financial call for 2024.
Thus, this trade — to me — should be very specifically referred to as a rental and an aggressive move to try and win now with no clarity on anything beyond the end of this season.“
This is 100% right in my view. I think the talk about comp picks and extensions are mildly interesting, but wildly speculative. And, I don’t think the Org thought about those at all, L/W was the top of someone’s list and a decision was made that he was worth a 2nd round to rent for 10 games + playoffs.
I also don’t think this was a Rams all-in move, or else I think one of Sweat or Uche would have arrived as well.
@BAL, SF, @DAL, @SF, PHL – come out of there with a 3-2 record and take care of business in your other games…that is 13-4, that probably wins you the NFCW, and maybe even gives you home field (for all the talk of our gauntlet, look at PHL’s schedule!)
Looking forward to reading the thoughts on what may happen come draft time. I’ve tried looking myself, but am having an awful time projecting who might really be there at pick 25.
If we get to 13-4 but somehow are also getting pick #25 I’m going to be thoroughly bummed out.
“Comp picks and extensions … I don’t think the Org thought about those at all.” –LouCityHawk
Of course they didn’t think about that! Why would they? Their jobs are safe no matter how much thought they put into their FO work.
Are they though?
Till Jody bails, I’d say so.
Great content Rob. Well written and very informative.
Thank you
Off topic.
Good news Top Gun enthusiasts!
The Blue Angels homecoming show will be ON MY BIRTHDAY November 3rd (and 4th.) It will be streamed live on television by WEAR locally and online, as well as the rehearsals at 2 p.m. MT. The theme for this year’s show is “Women in Aviation” and the National Naval Aviation Museum is open to the general public.
It feels just like training camp.
Top Gun: saw that in the theater back when I was in high school. Had a blast making fun of it for hours with my friends afterward.
I think this move puts pressure on both Shane Waldron and Clint Hurtt, and by extension Pete Carroll.
I’m not saying they are a SB-bound team. But surely if they cannot produce with what they have on the field now, it’s not for a lack of talent.
It’s staggering when you look at it on paper:
QBs: Smith, Lock
RBs: Walker, Charbonnet, Dallas
WRs: Lockett, Metcalf, JSN, Bobo, Eskridge
OL: 80% of their starting line is back
TEs: Fant, Dissly, Parkinson
On the way back: McIntosh, Dareke Young, Lucas
I get that every player can’t have a ton of touches every game, but it is arguable that half of that list is being severely underutilized currently.
On defense:
DL: Reed, Jones, Williams, Edwards, Young
OLB: Mafe, Taylor, Hall, Clark
ILB: Wagner, Brooks, Bush, Rhattigan
S: Adams, Diggs, Love
CB: Woolen, Witherspoon, Brown, Jackson, Burns
On the way back: Bryant
That’s too much talent for how middling they currently are. The coaches need to show us something.
Not for nothing but the most positive man in hawks land, Corbin Smith, seems to think Lucas is done for the year.
The signs aren’t looking good, I agree
It’s been trending that way since Carroll’s tone changed a few weeks ago.
Just hoping he can come back next year
The offense looks absolutely putrid for large chunks of games, Need to get the run game going. No excuse for being the 19th ranked run offense. We are behind the Rams for gods sake.
Plus the red zone issues – some of that has to fall on play calling. Even the touchdowns made were fantastical (I’m thinking of the Bobo catch which was week and a half ago??).
Last week gave us a little hope for a good offense in the first quarter. But that hope was promptly dashed. Still there is hope that they can figure it out. Like everyone else, I wonder why if Geno Smith is so average that they keep using him as their primary weapon? Can’t they run more often when they have two great running backs? Or is the offensive line and their numerous holding calls just too much to handle?
It’s all very puzzling but it gets back to play calling and what will work.
“Need to get the run game going. No excuse.” –James Cr.
This.
Carroll attributes the woefully low rush attempts count to poor third down execution, but maybe the former is influencing the latter? Running the ball is a mentality, and nobody knows this more than Carroll. That attempts count has to be upped, bigtime. Force the issue. Make it happen. POUND THE ROCK!
That pass defense struggled early, but keep in mind they were without at least Woolen, Witherspoon, Brown and Adams for stretches during those early games. Since they have gotten healthy, they have performed very well (other than against screens). I know competition is a factor, but still strong signs.
I think Geno is going to be traded and they’re going to pick someone in rd3 and try to recreate 2012
Alternatively signing Love hopefully means they’re ditching Diggs and Adams next year
This is pretty identical to when we were in win now mode with Russell Wilson and all that constant mortgaging the future, which over time turned us into a talent-less crap team. It didn’t work out with a top 5 qb, I don’t understand why they think it’s suddenly going to work now with regressing-to-the-mean Geno Smith. Maybe they think this is Pete’s last hurrah?
The only way this pans out is if this defense turns into a top 10 defense, and we commit to the run. 9 ypc! for the running backs against the browns. Take away the 45 yard run and it was still 6.2 ypc! Geno has shown twice this year that he can be clutch, so that’s encouraging at least, but the more we can minimize his mistakes the better.
I do actually believe this team is talented enough this year to win it all, if the cylinders start hitting, but mainly because the rest of the league is pretty all over the place. The thought coming is was if Geno can be like first half Geno, the defense just has to be adequate. The defense appears to be adequate now, time for the offense to step up.
That raises the specter of 2024, where something is going to have to give
Something in my gut is giving me hope that this team will start “peaking” at the right time.
I’m trying to ignore it, but there are a lot of things that could come together at the right time…
…and I think Pete is the right guy for the job.
Putting this out into the universe just feels foolish, but sometimes you got to go ALL IN!
Let’s hope so. We expect run defense to be garbage but they are doing relatively good and great if you remove those screen passes in Brown’s game. On the other side, the offense should be doing a lot better but same old issues, even with the number of weapons, they are unable to put together a good game plan and execute it.
Your gut feeling has a merit and yes Pete is hard to understand at times but he makes things happen. Let’s see this time Pete fixes issues on time.
Do not trust to hope. It has forsaken these lands.
I’m ready for both John and Pete to just leave I’m tried of the unneeded and horrible trades and Geno Smith.
We’re 5-2, leading our division, with one of the most exciting young teams in football, and this is your perspective?
Not just Jo’s perspective—looks to me that’s the party line here.
Party line? Hardly.
It’s just whether being good not great is the most important thing.
They’ve both made a great team, then ruined the team, now we’re hoping they’ve made a great team again. Here’s hoping.
On Geno. I don’t know. If you’re a big believer in the story of him I think you look past a lot of stuff.
“If you’re a big believer in the story of (Geno) I think you look past a lot of stuff.” –Peter
Who are you addressing, me? Did I say any such thing about the story of Geno? Goodness gracious.
Personally, I tend to agree with Rob’s overall take on the state of the franchise, but I can’t be the only one who has noticed the echoey nature of this forum. It’s inevitable, I suppose, when likeminded people convene to share ideas. But clearly, I value SDB. The number of talented posters in the forum is quite respectable, and do I need to say more about Rob’s outstanding analysis? Tip-top content, year after year.
If it were my blog—which it is not—I would challenge divergent thought differently than I’ve seen it challenged in here at times. I would widen the bandwidth significantly.
A word Jed — I’m not interested in people ‘reviewing’ the blog, or calling it ‘echoey’ because someone has said something you don’t like.
We talk about football here. Argue back with Peter. Or don’t. But those are the only options.
Only one warning too, because this stuff is f***ing tiresome.
There is no ‘party line’
We discuss everything and I give my opinions (as it’s my blog) and people can debate me all they want
Same every day
At my party, I’ll keep inviting Schneider as long as he keeps drafting like the past 2 years. Pete is always welcome too, but we do need a succession plan.
As for debating: Superman is WAY faster than The Flash.
Agree 100% with finding another QB who can at least replicate what Geno has done for cheaper. It sure feels like Pete wants that elite D more than anything at this moment in time. That takes lots of depth for rotations and injuries. I feel like it’s much more likely they cut Geno and re-sign defensive FA’s or outside FA’s rather than cutting Diggs and/or Adams and keeping Geno.
I like Geno and I also like cap flexibility. Plus, this D is a few simple errors and a few soft penalty calls at very inopportune times from being at or very near the top in PPG and yards. And that’s including the week 1 debacle vs the rams.
“If you can get a 2nd rd pick for an expiring contract, you run to do that deal.”
Mike Lombardi on Bill Simmons’ latest podcast, speaking about Washington trading Sweat to Bears. He goes on to note how often if drafting mid to late rd 1 that you can get a very similar player in rd 2. Describes the Rd 2 picks as “gold”.
They are gold
They are incredibly valuable
And PCJS flushed it right down the toilet. The Hawks get played again—by themselves. The incompetence of these incompetents continues on, year after mediocre year, with no hope for accountability in sight. At least SDB will be able to celebrate being right come January—not the greatest consolation as you’re facing draft season with depleted stock and a roster full of question marks, but it beats wasting time in the denial stage. Get to go straight to anger.
It was quite a few years ago by now (before the more fixed salary structure for draft picks was put into place), but some economists did a study that concluded 2nd round picks had the best ratio of performance to $ in the draft. I’d imagine it might still be true … high quality players for far less money than a 1st rounder.
Seahawks last 8 2nd round picks: Hall, Charbonnet, Boye Mafe, K9, Eskridge, Taylor, Blair, DK Metcalfe.
On 4 year cheap contracts that’s a pretty nice list of contributors, even with the Eskridge/Blair picks in there. If you hit on a DK Metcalfe or Boye Mafe it’s insane value. Good teams rely on contributions from cost controlled rookie contracts.
Unfortunately, I suspect WR is where the key to the Seahawks financial future lies. With JSN in the fold and Lockett projected to account for 26.7 M cap hits in 2024 and 2025 its unlikely he’ll be retained at those prices for age 32-33 seasons (especially age 33 when savings would be $17 m to cut him). I love him and he’s a great player, but that contract seems to be screaming for him to become a cap casualty in the next 2 years. They could choose to keep him and jettison DK instead (who is tradeable at age 26 with a lower cap number in 2024). That seems like a less likely path even though DK is more mercurial and less dependable.
2024 does create contract opportunities for Quandre and Jamal. Both could create significant savings if cut. It’s hard to justify so much $ on aging safeties. Their futures will depend on how this season plays out. Diggs generates nearly twice the cap savings if cut and is older, though also in a prime position to negotiate a career ending contract.
Smith’s contract is unique. He won’t be cut as long as he keeps meeting the team’s game manager needs.
Lockett isn’t going anywhere
People don’t realise how much love there is for Lockett within the front office, coaching staff and locker room
He will be here as long as he wants to be. You can book that in.
And the point on Smith doesn’t make sense because he’s neither meeting those needs nor is his performance warranting the big pay rise coming
100% agree with Rob. Locket is going to the seahawks for life and he deserves every penny.
So according to DVOA, we have had the easiest schedule in the NFL so far. And from here on in, we have the third toughest schedule:
https://x.com/aschatznfl/status/1719077365274275914?s=46&t=uv5_Cfk4hepYHPYUO6WNbQ
Stop being negative.
You’re just highlighting numbers to confirm your priors.
😂😂😂
@ cha well you just described ‘the party line’
thanks to all in the comments, and thanks for this article. much appreciated
Yep, feels a bit like last year. Baltimore will be a good test, but man it’s very possible we go 9-8 or 8-9. If that happens it makes this trade a disaster, IMO. I mean we just went through the easy part and Geno has 6 picks. 5 in the last 3 games.
I still think 10 wins which is what I said at the start of the year
If that happens I’m not sure the deal would’ve been worth it for one more win, unless Williams plays lights out and they are aggressive with the roster to create money to extend him
This Ravens game may prove pivotal. Not sure how much I trust DVOA anymore now that most everyone left, but they are their #1 ranked team (4th offense, 1st defense). If we win that, 10 and above is on the menu. If we lose, 10 looks like the ceiling. But you never know. The offense and Geno really need to get it together. Williams can’t do much about that.
I think this deal is worth it, IF the seahawks have a deep playoff run. NFC championship game or a hard fought lost in the divisional round.
Im kind of reminded of the 2010 season. Fans were split on if the seahawk should win or lose the last game of the year vs the Rams. Fans knew seahawks had no chance for a superbowl. If they lose, no playoffs and get a higher 1st round pick. Win, and face the reigning superbowl champ in the first round.
But they won and the win against the Saints was a jumpstart to their run to the superbowl two years later. Gave their young players playoff football winning experience.
Im now ok with losing the 2nd round pick next year if the seahawks have similar results. Gaining valuable playoff winning experience for their young core. But they cannot lose in the wild card round.
I think its gotta be a super bowl appearance to make the trade worth it. Anything else just makes the remaining picks that much higer in the rounds and makes getting a qb potentially harder. I don’t see the NO playoff win a catalyst to future sucess, it was drafting Wilson that completed the team. (Obviously forever greatful for Beastquake)
All I keep coming back to in my mind is a 2nd and a 5th got this team K9 and Woolen. That isn’t even talking about if theres a want to trade up for a qb or replacing guys that will inevitably be unsignable because of poor cap management. I’m really hoping this team surprises me but whoever gets added to the defensive front doesn’t throw the ball or call the plays.
That’s what bothers me about these trades, and they’ve never worked out as far as I can remember. In all likelihood we lost a 2nd and 5th for a 10 game rental and realistically, not a very good shot at a Super Bowl this year. I just don’t get what they’re seeing. I’d love to finally be proven wrong, but until then this approach just hasn’t worked at all.
Ya their track record is pretty poor. Not taking away the Lynch or Diggs types deals because they have made those. But who the hell were they bidding against that would give up more than a 2nd even? Then to see Sweat and Young both gilet moved for less just makes me wonder if they were even in on those? I’m guessing Washington has been taking calls for a few weeks, why sign Clark before exhausting those options if you want to do a deal anyway? The whole thing looks foolish like past trades. Its like the Giants weren’t that set on moving him unless they really get a great offer so Seattlekept bidding againstthemselves. Interesting though, outside of the Seahawks sphere the rest of the media is saying the Giants fleeced us. Guess our fans don’t wrote back though.
“I just don’t get what they’re seeing.” –geoff u
They’re seeing the franchise valuation steadily rise, with only a little bit longer to go before the big cha-ching. I get the impression some of you still think it’s all about championships—adorable!
I legitimately don’t think Allen is selling anytime soon.
Pete and John are absolutely about championships.
Bobby Wagner — R2
Richard Sherman — R5
These aren’t just picks to write off
I said yesterday but if you just stare at the names an easy case can be made that round two has been Seattle most successful round….
a 2nd and a 5th can also turn into Chrstine Michael and Jesse Williams. Its a risk you have to take sometimes
Why is it though?
You don’t have to take the risk
I will be comfortable with this trade if Williams plays very well, the Seahawks take a leap forward overall and he is eventually extended. ~ Just listening to his press conference gave me confidence this is a good dude super talalented and versatile filling a huge need ,its exactly the type of SEAHAWK guy You spoke of prior to the Draft…the Opposite of Carter..no Drama just a Grizzly in the middle of this D LETS GO!!!!!!!!!
Rob, what would a fair value trade for LWill have looked like in your view? Given we couldn’t take on the salary, would it be a 3rd and a 5th? just a 3rd? Where was fair value in your humble opinion?
Honestly, I don’t think the Seahawks are in a position where an aggressive trade was right. As we discussed earlier, they’ve had the easiest schedule in the NFL so far and they’ve got the third hardest schedule coming up. I understand why the team think there’s an opportunity, given San Fran’s stumbling October. I just think we’ve got a bit carried away by pulling out a win against Cleveland when we were staring at 4-3 with that easy start to the season.
So my answer would be, I don’t think fair value for Seattle existed that would’ve been good enough for the Giants. I don’t think the Seahawks are suddenly close, or are ready to be a serious contender. I hope I’m wrong but I was very prepared to just let this season play out with the view that 2024 could be ‘the year’ where things ramp up.
I think they should’ve kept their picks, continued to aim to draft well in 2024 and should’ve tried to create room in the off-season to add someone like Williams as a free agent (or Christian Wilkins, or Chris Jones etc).
That would’ve been my preference.
It’s going to be real weird paying him whatever it is, Williams, knowing that dollar amount would have been the same whether we traded for him or not.
3000 words on 2024 quarterbacks coming tomorrow
Think you’ll find it interesting
After this week it’s the hope that I need haha.
I’m checking my phone for this like my daughter waiting to hear back from some boy, post it already!
If I didn’t know better, with the way this works with salary and picks, I might think that this move was made to help Pete go for it this season because there may not be further seasons…for Pete.
Wow you might be on to something Gross. People have said it before but it makes more sense on this move than say, why they won’t go qb early in the last draft.
I hope so
ditto
“The Seattle Seahawks … (have) very quickly established themselves as easily one of the top ten rosters in the NFL … pushing a top five roster. That’s scary, absolutely scary. As far as defensive rosters go, I would have to say this is definitely a top five defensive roster. That quickly. Man! Outstanding job. You have to love it when you can see guys are on their A game, and that’s what John Schneider and Pete Carroll are.” –Top Billin’
The grifter speaketh.
I’m not sure I disagree…
The major drawback is that they are not in the top ten at the most important position.
For all the naysayers, what would would the ceiling for this team be with a Josh Allen or even Justin Herbert at QB?
He’s got you covered. He has done at least 2 or 3 Geno hype videos so far this year. Geno is amazing, didn’t you know that?
It’s got everything to do with the truth of Geno’s play, and nothing to do with spoonfeeding addled Seahawks fans for views and super likes…
I recall the thin-skinned pencil-neck dust up, about the only time I went to that dude’s site and saw Seahawks video 7k comments, Eagles 500 comments…
I’ve been more bullish than a lot of fans on the Hawks D this year, the Ravens and home 9ers will really be put up and shut up for the team generally however.
I’m not ready to say they are not a top 10 defense…or a top 10 roster… Really, I think there is a ton of talent on this team that needs to perform up to its level.
He knows what he’s doing
Used car salesman.
https://twitter.com/NFLGameDay/status/1719810493886665193
I love the “*since week 4” qualification.
“What have you done for me lately?” 😆
Daniel Jones, a hobbled Joe Burrow, Joshua Dobbs, and PJ Walker.
A murderer’s row of talent if I ever saw it.
Joe Burrow wasn’t hobbled in that game. Though I agree otherwise. However PJ Walker beat the Niners, Josh Dobbs beat the Cowboys.
As is the case with all trades and draft picks, I suppose only time will tell if this Leonard Williams trade is a successful one. I suppose if he plays as a top 15 DT in the league over the next 2 ½ seasons and Seattle get to extend him, then I think despite the draft capital it’ll have been a successful trade.
However lucky or not the team might be, they have found themselves in a strong position this season and with the trade deadline upon them, the coaches decided, not irrationally and as has been discussed on this blog, they needed cover at DT and to maintain momentum and it was better to enhance the position at this point rather than just get cover as the Falcons did with Kentavius Street.
For the future, this season will be the end for Quandre Diggs you have to imagine. Just as it was for Bobby Wagner a couple of years ago, the Seahawks aren’t going to have a $21 million cap hit for Diggs in 2024. Cutting him will allow them to transfer some of this resource into a contract for Williams on the D line, something we’ve been crying out for for a few seasons now. With younger players like Adams, Young and Morris coming through, the D line could be in good shape for the next couple of seasons at the very least?
They didn’t trade for 2.5 years, they traded for 10 games. If he plays for us 2 more years after that, it will because we’ll be paying him fair market value for those services just like we would with any other FA signing.
One thing that does concern me about the Leoanard Williams trade, which doesn’t really have anything to do with the player or his value, is how not having a 2nd round pick might alter John Schneider’s approach to the draft.
He’s been very successful sticking with the Seahawks native pick, these last few years even when picking in the 20s, it has set up a certain momentum for the rest of the draft on the back of it. If the mindset is already to try and trade out of their native Rd1 pick to pick up an extra 3rd rounder, who might we miss out on this time? It won’t be a Montez Sweat or TJ Watt this time, but it could be worse, they could trade themselves out of taking a top QB?
Thinking of mindsets, it might be Schneider’s view that he’s ‘going’ to take a QB in Rd 3 (hence the extra value of getting another Rd3 pick by trading down in the 1st), because that was what he did in 2012 and got Russell Wilson. I’m probably being patronising on this point however.
Just one final point on their Rd 1 pick, when was the last time Schneider traded up in Rd 1? Worth pointing out that in 2019 the Seahawks native picks was 2 picks below Jeffery Simmons selection for the Titans. Obviously with hindsight, but trading up 3 places with the Vikings for example, would have snared them Jeffery Simmons and left all these current discussions around a Leonard Williams trade superfluous.
A few years ago we had only 3 picks going into the draft and most thought it would force us into trading down to recoup those picks. They stood pat (Eskridge, Tre Brown & Forsythe).
Since the LJ Collier incident – trading down 8 spots & the disappointment seen in their body language of missing out on someone – we haven’t traded back with any high value picks. Maybe they were hoping for Simmons or thought they could get Sweat or Abrams 8 picks later.
My thought is that something changed in that 2019 draft. They got cute and never wanted to be in that spot again. FOMO maybe, but there have been guys they liked that they stayed and picked from then on.
Yes, I hope you’re right.
Eskridge and Taylor are both second rounders as well, so there’s never a given that they will be bonafide players in this league.
Williams provides a presence in the middle that is missing. And he will only be 30. Merlin Olson played well into his 30’s, I see them getting him a contract.
Nobody says they’re a given though
It’s still an extremely valuable asset
And if they don’t sign him up, they used it to borrow a player for 10 games
So there’s a lot at stake here. He has to play well, the team has to succeed and they need to extend him which isn’t easy as the article outlines
Extend him or don’t extend him, the 2nd is gone either way. When it’s time to make that decision the 2nd will be the very definition of a sunk cost.
Hall
Charbonnet
Mafe *
Walker *
Eskridge
Taylor
Blair
Metcalf *
McDowell
Pocic
Reed *
Clark *
Richardson
Britt
Michael
Wagner *
Tate
All the 2nd rounders Seattle has picked. * = locked on successful picks.
That’s six bona fide successes put of 17 picks with the jury out on Hall, Charbonnet which could possibly put it at nearly a 50% hit rate.
Leonard Williams should 100% fill a need and provide juice. Depending how he plays this year his contract could be anywhere from easy to deal with Reed to something as high as all current cap space.
No second rounder next year might not matter. However retaining Williams at 17 million a year if he lights it up could see it being hard to retain: Lewis, brooks, one or both of the TE’s ( or all three if they need to cut Dissly for dollars)…I increasingly see chatter about cutting Lockett. The most reliably good player on the team at any position cut for 7 million and a dead cap of 19 million? Awesome.
Talk of post June 1st cuts of Diggs and/or Adams….maybe.
I agree that DT’s can play into their 30’s. Big disagree on Merlin Olsen comp. For the youth or the less historically knowledgeable Merlin Olsen had 91.5 sacks in 16 years in an era where you could attempt to kill your opponent on the field. LW will ‘only’ need 50+ sacks over the next five years to catch him.
Did the work for him…
Really, only have to look at last years draft and wonder what Seattle might have done with an extra 2nd rounder and what that would mean for the team moving forward.
If we go with the low number, 6 successes out of 17 picks could mean 24 years of cheap, quality play. That’s about 1.3 years for each 2nd round pick on average, rather than 10 games.
Dang i love a wonky stat. I mean…I don’t love it in this case but they is some interesting framing. Thanks for that.
Edit. That is some interesting framing. The 1.3 per pick.
Been listening to the Cigar Thoughts podcast, which is great for some positive vibes around the team. A 5-2 record at this point is probably around what we thought it would be.
They praise Adams, and i do really like him as a player on the team, he’s just simply too expensive. Same goes for Diggs. Great when they are great, but not frequent enough to be payed at this level.
Moving on from Smith, Diggs and Adams was the first three things i did on my madden 24 save. Ate the deadhit, moved on to younger and cheaper alternatives. Will it hurt? probably. It might also give chance to a rock solid 5th round safety that out of nowhere plays at top levels. It happens all the time, why not again. Seattle do have history with bringing greatness oout of late round, hungry dogs with something to prove with every play.
Last note: Having Witherspoon hit so hard he makes recievers think twice about being near him is exactly the type of defense i want to see. I wanna see a reciever get blasted so hard they don’t even try to make runs after a catch.
EXTREMELY positive vibes.
You talking the Cigar thoughts pod?
I might just skip it this week. I listen to Smith and Rang most week nights. And that can be a bit much. I can’t imagine bevens plus smith.
Yeah, the response was for Peanut’s above. I get it, team is doing well, a lot of people have quite a bit of faith for this year. But I can’t gloss over the details of the team. Excuses for the problems. Too much blind faith and “do no wrong” attitude.
I’m down to here and surprisingly Kenneth Arthur once and a while. He’s had some good, realistic views (a lot about Geno) that some of his readers just disregard.
Cigar Thoughts is my go to post-game pod, along with the SDB response. Those are the only two I listen to for game response.
I like balance in all things.
Smith and Rang it will all depend on the topic, I appreciate Rang’s insights a lot, and Corbin Smith does work – his takes are not always right (who’s are?), but he does put in work.
Almost any other one I try wears me thin, too much banter, too much slant, opinions that seem to be flung out there without care or concern.
I still listen to the following:
Locked on hawks with Smith and Rang. Positive vibes. Generally accurate assessments of opponents. News tidbits.
Seahawks forever. Dan Viens, for me, does a great job talking positively but also adjusts thinking over team. After Rob does the best job talking about draft prospects without regurgitating the same names forever.
Hawkblogger. There I said it. Though I rarely agree with everything I really like Simmons and Nemhauser (sp?) together.
The Pedestrian Podcast. Adam and Stuart are a fun listen and get really great guests.
Full disclosure. Fans of Rob’s might be the most cynical and people mistake cynicism with negativity but damn there are some shows with grossly dysfunctional fans who are trending into toxic to be toxic territory with a ton of comments that you couldn’t say to someone’s face without expecting a physical conflict as it’s end result.
I follow Viens on Twitter, he is about 50/50 for me, but his podcast dragged, maybe I should give him another shot.
I think I used to download the Pedestrian Podcast to listen to in the off-season while driving from site to site, lots of banter on that one?
Maybe I’ll give Hawkblogger a try. There used to be a show 3in 3out that I enjoyed from a purely popcorn perspective, but it has disappeared – and for the life of me I can’t recall the hosts names.
I find most the users on SDB to be informative, and in full disclosure, I know a handful of lurkers (irl) who come here strictly for the comments section. Two of those lurkers are from other teams (AFC), and actively wish they had a community like this.
I stayed out of comment sections specifically because I’m unapologetically opinionated. I imagine I would have earned permanent bans since I was on the full trade RW train beginning in 2018, and was full stop pumped for Josh Allen.
The SDB hate is a curious thing for me, I’ve disagreed with Rob plenty (even staunchly – Will McDonald), he even scoffed at my 13 win ceiling prediction on his podcast, it doesn’t bother me, he’s never deleted anything of mine, no one here dogpiles on me the way they might on other sites.
Apologies Rob to speak of you in third person…
I’ve been here since Kip Early wine was making “suck for luck,” graphics and the Wilson pick got around less than 50 comments.
I found you only get banned if you do the following:
1. Personally attack Rob or personally attack a fellow poster.
2. You would have probably been dogpiled for wanting to trade Russ. But…opinions here change. In hindsight I’m not sure that wouldn’t have been a bad or good move. Allen has ruled, at times, and Russ is annoying. I still contend if they did that but made all the other decisions the same this team would be a net neutral.
Careful with Hawkblogger! Some of it will make your head explode.
I mean, with that neck, how can you not say something?
It is just a weird thing, people act like this is a monolithic group of bobble heads over here.
There is a slant, naturally, towards commenters who think long term, and are more interested in drafting, team-building, and the like. When I see ‘party-line’ comments I just scratch my head.
If anything, I’d say this site veers more towards being pro-PC, very pro-JS, and kind towards the coordinators. People conflate the idea of saying “maybe PC should retire” with “fire PC!”. Same thing with the Geno discourse….
Sometimes it’s easier to smear people you disagree with than debate them
…did SF pick up Chase Young AND Randy Gregory for less than Seattle paid for LW?
Once you make an exception…
Until further notice, I’m counting Gregory and Young as Subtraction by Addition.
Rob gets mad when I say this, but this trade is more evidence that the Seahawks are not going to invest much (Day 1 or Day 2 Draft Picks) for a new QB. Since Pete and John have been here, they have actively tried to not spend too much capital on QB. Using only 2 pick in 14 years, one 3rd and one 7th, is proof of this. They are currently satisfied to stay with reclamation projects like Smith and Lock, IMO.
You will point out that they did resign Wilson to large contracts. It has come out that they were actively looking to trade Russ well before he demanded to get out. They never wanted to spend 40M on a QB but got stuck with Wilson as he was winning a lot of games . Wilson foolishly believing he could be elite, and wanting to get the hell out, helped them to be able to use their resources elsewhere, like at Safety.
Yet they were looking to trade Russ. And no matter what people say, Russ was elite. He just isn’t going to win it all with a team throwing it 40 times a game.
I’m as skeptical as anyone else. To me, this trade either means round 1 will 100% be a quarterback, or they won’t take one at all (late round doesn’t count, that is a wasted qb pick as far as I’m concerned). It’s about the only glaring weakness left. Might even be more likely that they move up. If Geno plays this way the rest of the year, I don’t think John will want to roll with it again.
And capwise, they have to do something. Geno can’t stay in his current contract.
To me this trade locked in that there will be a QB drafted in 2024, maybe not R1…I’m going to wait for Rob’s article on QB’s to drop, but I feel like I’m getting a sense of where they may be headed with this draft, and the answer is QBotF or bust.
As far as Geno in 2024, he either gets cut, or restructures for a lower hit and continues as a bridge. I’m 100% certain they will roll with a bridge QB, even if it is Drew Lock.
Came here looking for same said article.
As of now, my big 2 prospects for Seattle (in terms of who I think they will target) are
Rattler
Ewers
Neither will go in the first group of QBs. Rattler should be available at our R1 (assuming we don’t win the NFCC), and Ewers probably a round later.
Watched a lot of the kid from K St while I was laid up… looks very Seahawky. Round 3 seems right, but if he blows up pre-draft, could be higher.
Rattler and Ewers are also on brand. I’m not ruling out Leonard either.
I think Leonard goes in the first group. Too expensive for Seattle. Otherwise 100%
Early uninformed guess.
Ewers is transferring. They need to play Manning or he’ll transfer. Ewers has something to him. He’s also a projections projection. Injuries. 17 games. Not an all world specimen like Allen or Anthony Richardson. Not amazing or even great production. I think he’ll recieve a third round grade.
I wonder if Washington would try and get him in the fold as they will still have Polk and possibly McMillan plus some other intriguiging wideouts. If nothing else to showcase his arm ability to the fullest extent even if its a limited offense in terms of translating to the NFL. He has shown he can run a more pro offense even if he is pushed out.
Makes a lot of sense
I would say that they ARE taking a quarterback, but I just can’t get over all of these years where they have done nothing and just neglected the position. Just for me, I don’t have much hope in John and Pete (probably almost entirely Pete, I think John knows that it’s time to pay the price).
I really want them to take a Quarterback in Round 1 and get the best available. Looking at the Seahawks recentt history of not drafting Quarterbacks high, I do not believe that they will.
Totally get this perspective, but…
I’m reminded of the story about the RW draft, JS was in him, PC had to be sold and still made JS wait a round to take RW.
I believe following 2021 there was a power shift and JS now has greater say in player selection (speculation, but there is smoke to this effect).
I’ve got a soft list of QBs that I believe JS was in on, but either had to wait a round because of PC, or wasn’t allowed to move up for…I also think that PC did not want a move up with RW in house (RW’s fragile ego has now been put on display).
I have not been sure who is calling the shots. Did JS covet Williams but PC did not and that explains why Carroll looked unhappy in that Press Conference? Is PC the big Chief and thinks he can win with any QB in his system so why spend capital there?
You may be on to something about not wanting to harm Russ’s fragile ego as to why they hadn’t invested picks into a backup QB or QBOTF for years.
Not another person saying they won’t take a QB in round one based on flimsy evidence 🤦♂️
They had RW for a whole era!!
This is a perfectly valid thought. However, we said the exact same thing about CBs for years.
Hey Rob + others,
Is there a world where PCJS felt like we could have been 1 defensive tackle injury away from the basis of our defense falling apart and wanted to make sure we could withstand a blow like that, with the potential of getting something done longer term? Before the trade if Reed or Jones went down it would have felt catastrophic. Just looking for some insight, thanks!
Like it, hate it, indifferent this is 100% the reason for the trade. There is no “next man up,” from Reed or Jones. If we are going to make noise this year it almost had to be done.
that’s what I think too. wish we had some other way of making the money work so we didn’t have to give them the 2nd. I’m going to worry about the draft in the off-season…curious to see how LW plays.
Personally, the thing I fear the most about this trade (other than a missed opportunity to us the 2nd rounder on a QB), is that this turns into a Jamal Adams situation, where they feel *compelled* to sign LW, simply because they traded so much to get him.
Remember how we criticized not having a deal in place with Adams? And that he had so much leverage, based upon the trade compensation?
Clearly this trade isn’t as bad as the Adams one… but I could see them overpaying for Williams in order to “justify” the trade.
to further the above thought…
What if he clearly outperforms Dre’mont Jones?
Are we going to give Williams a better contract than him?
What are the cap implications if we cut or trade Jones, I wonder?
They pick up about $4.8 and eat $13m dead.
Hard to see that happening.
Here’s a what if going through my head…
Reed outperforms them both and LW is looking for decent money and Reed is getting way less than Jones. I’ve always liked Reed the player but we’ve had contract problems with him before.
Great point, Peter.
If Reed keeps playing at his current level, he is going to want a substantial raise.
He’s probably already thinking he deserves more than Jones.
I don’t know how much justifying a R2 pick costs, but it can’t be anywhere near the cost of justifying 2 R1s and a R3
Not sure these are the same situation
Perhaps not… which is why I noted “Clearly this trade isn’t as bad as the Adams one”…
but Pete *has* come out already and stated that they want to re-sign him.
And there *has* been discussion in the media about the Seahawks overpaying… or getting “fleeced”.
It’s not difficult for me to imagine them wanting to appear “right” with this trade…especially in light of past head scratching contracts they’ve offered players.
They are in a somewhat awkward situation with this trade, really.
*If* Williams plays poorly or just ok, like Sheldon Richardson, for example, they likely won’t re-sign him, and the deal for a 2nd rounder will be disasterous.
If, on the other hand, Williams does what the hope for, and he plays well… or even great… then they will be compelled to offer him a very large contract in order to re-sign him.
That’s why I brought up Jones and his deal.
If Williams plays at a pro bowl lever for us, or close to it, he’s going to want more money than Jones… unless Jones surprises us with pro bowl level play we haven’t seen from him yet.
Can we afford 2 defensive tackles making 17 million a year?
Really, the only way I see this deal being viewed as a success, is if we make the Super Bowl.
The reality is, that we won’t be able to re-sign Williams at all… unless he plays so poorly that his market completely crashes. And then… do we even want him?
For me, if he plays a significant role in getting us to the NFCCG I’d view that as a success.
I think so. The Seahawks have had a MLB and a safety making that much before. Why not plus up the impact of the whole defense by spending on the DL? And they’ll get big value from Boye Mafe and (hopefully) Derrick Hall, and the corners so it’s easily justified.
I agree, I’d rather have those resources placed in more impactful/valuable positions like the defensive line. And if you are suggesting that we would, perhaps, jettison some of the larger contracts at safety and/or linebacker, so as to invest in the trenches, that makes total sense… assuming that Jones and Williams are worth it, of course.
Brocks take on LW trade – https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1768699/seattle-seahawks-gave-up-more-leonard-williams-49ers-chase-young/
If this trade forces the team to release Mone, Diggs and (restructure) Dissly in favor of resigning LW…
Then everyone here should be celebrating this trade as a MASSIVE win.
Sure but that has to happen first, it’s just a bunch of if’s for now
You left out Adams
Notwhenyoubundle’em!
https://youtu.be/-EGmQUUHYA8?si=9KSXehSI-TDPdzkK
Video from Colt McCoy analysing Shane Waldron’s playcalling. Perspective from an NFL Qb.
Some pretty creative plays.
Echoed what we said. Great running team, needs to run more. Pass builds off from the run. Geno needs to play better. Waldron giving Geno answers before the snap.