File this in the thinking out loud cabinet for now — but could the way the Rams have re-worked their offensive line influence the Seahawks?
This article in the Athletic outlines Sean McVay’s schematic transition over the last couple of years. The gist is, McVay ran an outside-zone run scheme and meshed it with a lot of play-action. They focused on cheaper, more mobile/athletic linemen for the system.
In 2022 they had a starting line of Brian Allen, Austin Corbett, Rob Havenstein, David Edwards and Joseph Noteboom. Only Havenstein had any serious size. The two guards — Edwards and Corbett — were converted tackles. Allen was an undersized center. None of the players were big-money investments or high draft picks.
Jourdan Rodrigue writes in the Athletic article that, “McVay’s run game became increasingly one-dimensional after the departure of Todd Gurley in 2019. The Rams went from the top of the NFL in production there to near the bottom.” Rodrigue also notes a ‘finesse’ reputation had been developed. Thus, McVay decided to make drastic changes.
Per Rodrigue:
So in spring and summer 2023, McVay committed to adjusting his scheme to feature more gap- and man-blocking concepts — a favorite run became “duo” — with plenty of motion and sifting from tight ends and receivers (they still ran mid- and outside-zone as well, mixing horizontal stretch with downhill power), and GM Les Snead committed to the type of personnel up front it would take to run the more physical plays.
Here’s what that means. They drafted Steve Avila in round two a year ago, he’s 332lbs. He’ll convert to center next season. They traded for and subsequently spent big money on Kevin Dotson, who is 321lbs. They just paid a sizeable sum to Jonah Jackson, who is 311lbs. Rob Havenstein, the right tackle, is 330lbs. Alaric Jackson, who started at left tackle last year, is 330lbs.
That’s an enormous O-line. The Rams have certainly committed to varying their scheme. It makes me wonder if the Seahawks will do something similar.
Now, it’s worth repeating what we’ve already said about the current staff in Seattle. Washington, under Ryan Grubb and Scott Huff, preferred smaller, more athletic centers. The Ravens, where Mike Macdonald coached defense, drafted a similar undersized center in the first round in 2022 (Tyler Linderbaum). The Seahawks have also favoured smaller centers the last two years in Austin Blythe, Evan Brown and Olu Oluwatimi.
However, the Seahawks have faced similar problems to the Rams. They’ve also earned a ‘finesse’ tag, along with — if we’re being honest — ‘incapable’. The run game has collapsed.
They have just appointed Jake Peetz from the Rams to be their passing game coordinator, which suggests they are conscious of what McVay is doing in LA. He’s obviously not involved in the run game but he might share some of McVay’s ideas from last season with Grubb and Huff.
Again, it’s worth noting what Huff had in Washington. There were too very athletic tackles who weren’t massive in size. They had a center listed at 275lbs. The two guards were 327lbs and 311lbs. It would be a pivot to now mimic LA and bring in a monster O-line.
That said, prospective starting right guard Anthony Bradford is 332lbs. There are other accomplished interior offensive linemen in this draft who are in that size range. For example, I’ve been saying Jackson Powers-Johnson might be less likely to land in Seattle than elsewhere because he’s 330lbs. If the Seahawks were leaning towards copying the Rams, though, he would fit the size profile.
So my point really is I’m going to be more open minded about what they might do. It’s not out of the realms of possibility they copy the Rams and go for size. This is a copycat league, after all. Plus the Rams ran well against Mike Macdonald’s Baltimore defense last season — producing 128 yards on the ground.
At the moment, short of any unexpected big splash in free agency, I’d think everything points towards the Seahawks focusing on three possible areas in the draft — quarterback, O-line and pass rusher. If they see a potential long term franchise QB, that has to be a firm focus. That might be tricky with the top-three teams positioning themselves to go QB, with the Giants, Vikings, Broncos and Raiders also in the market. If a quarterback isn’t possible, selecting the best O-liner or pass rusher at #16 (or after trading down) feels a near certainty.
After reading about the Rams, and acknowledging how much Grubb has already talked about creating a line that’ll beat people up in the trenches, it stands to reason the Seahawks might also seek to get bigger and more bullying on their offensive line.
And Grubb has said that the offense is going to be physical. Will they trend back toward “road grader “ offensive linemen and if so what would that mean for the future of Charles Cross in Seattle.
I’d be fine with trading him. He’s not very good. Okung was a huge disappointment, and he was better than Cross.
Sucks to see the Rams bulk up the line. Now they just need a back that will run through an MFers face to ruin my day.
McVay self-scouting and adjusting his approach? Wow, what a novel concept. As a Seahawk fan I’m used to “we just line up and beat you”.
Sure hope Mike Mac is like this.
Pete carroll football wasted 10 years of my life
I wonder if part of it had to do with pass protection and Stafford getting sacked quite a bit in 2022, eventually leading to his injury?
Interesting thoughts. One of the things that excites me most about the draft is that we’ll finally have a clearer picture of what types of players they want and what kind of scheme we think they’ll run. Right now we are so in the dark with a rookie HC, OC, and o-line coach. I think I took for granted how relatively predictable our draft prospects have been, having the same coach for 14 years. The next 6 weeks will be a very fun learning experience!
Nothing would make me happier and more excited about the Seahawks than seeing them trying to assemble an elite OL.
It all starts in the trenches. Go out and get some maulers!
The trenches are very important but you can’t win at an elite level without a top QB
Rob – when the FA dust settles, I would like to see your assessment of what the Seahawks might have to give up to move up in the draft to snag someone like Daniels vs. what they might get in return by moving down to end up with a second-tier QB like Rattler or Penix. Related question: is there evidence that the Seahawks tried to move up in the first last year, but couldn’t find a willing draft partner? If so, how can JS revise his strategy so we are more likely to find a willing partner this time around? Thanks.
Just a quick thought. I don’t think small OL correlates with soft or finesse necessarily. My memory is that the Mike Shannahan broncos always had small athletic OL (especially OG). I don’t think anybody complained they were soft. (My memory could be wrong on their size)
I think 290lb with no bad weight gives a lot of advantages compared to 320lb. Reach blocks, getting to the 2nd level, picking up blitzes/stunts. It just takes a plan in the cases where there are big DL and help needs to be planned in some cases to prevent somebody from getting pancaked. Also increases the importance of running play action to prevent a pure bull rush.
If nasty athletic explosive OL are under valued because everybody wants 320+ lb refrigerators then I’ll happily take them
I didn’t argue you have to be finesse with smaller O-liners. Just saying that was how the Rams broke away from finesse (going bigger) and the Seahawks might do the same
Yeah I didn’t mean to be attacking you at all. It was an interesting article documenting a clear shift in approach by another team.
I was just trying to make the point that both styles can work. I’d rather our GM fill the team with elite players and then the coaches figure out how to take advantage of their strengths than get average talent which fits a body type (within reason).
For example, we have DK and Fant who are athletic and big. Kenneth Walker should be running to the outside to take advantage of his speed and explosion. Let’s get an explosive OL which can help with that.
If we had a statue like Stafford then maybe you do build the great wall. Both can be good ideas. I just want our staff to evaluate what they have instead of copying what they see others do. I I’m hopeful from everything they say but want to see it happen.
Rob I have been thinking a lot about the video where you hilighted that in order to be a championship team you need 4 things.
-Legit Franchise QB
-Protect the Passer
-Offensive Weapons
-Game wrecker on the DL
With that in mind how about this trade idea. Between Seattle and Mike McDonalds good buddy Jim Harbaugh.
SD Trades
#5
Joey Bosa (who may be a casualty if not)
Sea Trades
-DK (I know no cap savings)
-1st 2025
-1st 2026
SD gets Herbert a young offensive weapon they desperately need and 2 first round picks
Seahawks take a flier on a potential game wrecker off the edge of healthy. They use #5 on Maye or JJ Mcarthy. Use #16 on Troy Fautanu.
This could potentially solve 3 of the 4 things you need to be an elite team and then they just need to find another weapon to replace DK as the young QB develops. Hopefully they use Fant more as a big pass catcher to take some of DK’s targets.
Not sure SD would do but if they plan to let go Bosa anyways then basically it is DK and a couple of 1st round picks for #5.
I’m glad you’re not our GM. For what it’s worth, Over The Cap estimates that Bosa will fetch a 2nd and 3rd. Also, why does everyone want to trade DK?
JSN may be more appealing given Metcalf’s high end salary and Harbaugh’s preference for run game focus.
I’d prefer Mack over injury prone Bosa, especially if Mack would take lower new contract at age 33-35
Both Bosa n Mack may get cut in next week before their roster bonus gets locked in. Great timing to strike!
Both have high upside but high risk due to age/injury history. I would be very nervous about investing heavy resources into either.
Damien Lewis could have fit this philosophy change at 326, but so many options to replace him in the draft for a more reasonable cost.
I know he’s raw but would love Mims if we go the enormous line route.
Not sure if this was already linked in a prior thread, but OTC has a useful comp pick tracker and keeps track of the cancellation chart for current FAs. Currently have Lewis, Brooks, Colby as 4/5/6 though that will change.
https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks
If the Seahawks keep playing it smart, they’ll get some in 2025.
Their big expenditures were re-signings so they don’t count.
And they don’t have much money left to free spend, so they might just pick up guys that don’t qualify to eliminate the players lost.
What are your thoughts on Anthony Bradford? He is massive but from what I’ve seen I’m pretty worried he might not have the mobility to deal with fast interior DL, picking up blitz stunts, and effectively blocking at the 2nd level. It looks like he has to be a starter next year but I’m worried what that might look like.
There is reason to be worried. The Seahawks will find options. I’m pretty confident that, if Bradford has a significant role, he will have earned it. We will learn a lot by the time the draft is over.
A switch of this nature would be a 2 year project…
I’m having trouble seeing who is signed and who is not. I do think it is notable that none of the top Tackles have signed yet.
Note: Not much safety action yet, it appears the league as a whole is in course correction.
Derrick Henry 2y/$16m up to $20m with $9m guaranteed seems very un-Ravens like.
That’s top-10 RB APY for a 30 year old RB.
Henry led the NFL in carries last year and had his lowest per yard average, least broken tackles and his first downs gained were his worst since he was job-sharing a few years back.
Yes he had 1166 yards and 12 TDs but at 30 do you expect a bump from those numbers? Really?
They must be banking on Lamar and the OL making him much more effective.
Ravens usually let players age out and leave, not bring in highly-paid best-years-behind-them types like Henry.
Did the entire league forget the lessons learned about old, expensive rb????? When did this happen?? What am I missing? It appeared that everyone had come to agreement that you don’t pay old worn out rbs? That you use them, discard, and draft them in mid to late rounds. I thought it was agreed upon that paying old name rb was a fools old time way of looking at the game. What changed overnight? Is this rb class that awful, Rob?
The elephant in the room is the knee of Abraham Lucas. Just how healthy is his knee? Not only is Abraham Lucas an excellent football player. But the guy is really a good dude. So hopefully Lucas can overcome his knee issues.
I hope we get Jeremy Chinn….i know his 2023 wasnt great, but there is somethign about his physical profile + positional flexibility that makes me think he would be a great piece in the new scheme. He should be cheaper than other options, and a nice project for MacDonald. On the same note, I think Mike Morris will shine under new management….
If Rob is correct and draft focuses on QBotF, OL, Edge, DL. We should probably focus on LB in FA. Slim pickens it seems.
There are still some decent LB options out there
I hope we land Devin White. Best cover LB available by a country mile. Among LBs targeted at least 20 times, White was 1st in yards/target, 2nd in completion %, and 4th in passer rating allowed. He also had the 3rd most blitzes of LBs. He could really do some damage in a scheme like MM’s where they heavily disguise coverages and obscure the 4th rusher.
Deejay Dallas signing with Arizona.
I’m…Meh.
I wish him the best… He did what was asked of him by the Seahawks. 🫡
Hopefully McIntosh stays healthy. I really wanted to see more of him last season. One of those late, sneaky picks that easily surpasses the round they went in.
Arizona’s new PR/KR
Wait, who?
if it turns out that they are playing the comp pick game, rob might be spot on with his 2025 ewers-schnieder take.
loading up for a massive 2025 trade up…
I thought I read that, so far, the former Hawk FAs that were signed only equate to 4th, 5th and 6th round comps.
which would help soften the blow of a massive trade up, no?
Per Schefter, Patrick Queen intends to sign with Pittsburgh for 3 years / $41M. So many fans still thought we’d be in on him after re-signing Williams and Fant so I’m quite happy to finally put this one to bed.
We didn’t have the money, so I don’t know what fans expected? Sure, they might have gotten him, if push came to shove, but then they’d have nothing left for anyone else, unless they started going the route of New Orleans and their misery.
The casual fan does not have any understanding of effective cap space. They still think we have $30M+ cap room not realizing a good chunk of that is accounted for with draft picks and RFAs. Or they think we can just magically “restructure” and reduce the cap hit for any player we want. Or they want to be the Saints and fit any player under the cap by dumping it all into the future. By far my most frustrating experiences with Seahawks fans have been around anything cap related.
On the other hand, we have more cap room than some people are thinking as well.
We probably have 15 Million in realistic cap space left after RFA and Rookies. And the AAV of Williams and Fant are going to be lower than equal AAV that their contracts are being reported on.
Wait, what?
Seahawks fans spent soooo much energy on the idea that Queen, Madubuike and Stone were locks to come over.
I’m shocked – SHOCKED I SAY – that none of those things happened.
Devastated.
I was told under no certain terms that with a new coach they can select up to three players to come on over from their former team.
The red rover clause as it’s known..
For what it’s worth, it wasn’t just SeahawkX fans. It was lazy hack national media like Jeremy Fowler telling them to expect the entire Baltimore D to follow Big Mac Mike. 🙄
Patrick Queen to Steelers. 3yrs/$41M
Whew. Glad that’s over.
No Patrick Queen
No Geno Stone
We need to address those two positions, but let’s get new names in the mix
Drew Lock to the Giants
Figured he was gone, all the talking him up was weird. He might actually have a shot at starting there this year.
IMO they were talking him up in case they got an offer acceptable to them for Geno and needed him to be the bridge QB. When nothing developed on the Geno trade front.
If the price is right (day 3 Pick) anyone got any interest in a Geno Smith/Justin Fields QB competition?
A 2025 conditional 6th-round pick? Okay, count me in.
The key phrase being “conditional”.
Perfect.
I’d trade a 5th for Fields.
Then trade down from #16 and gobble up all the value in the 2nd/3rd rounds.
Guess Seattle now has a glaring hole at QB now. 😉
Yes, and his name is Geno.
Drew Lock is reportedly signing with the Giants. Haven’t seen any details on numbers yet.
New York Giants are giving former Seahawks QB Drew Lock a one-year deal worth up to $5 million,
1yr/$5M
I don’t understand this narrative that several people on this board keep parroting about “glad we put this to bed” regarding the possibility of signing Queen. We likely entered free agency with about $55 million. I understand the need to reserve for draft picks (although we need less since we don’t have a 2nd round pick), but we have likely only spent about $22-23 million so far. We couldn’t afford Queen at under $12M per year on a 3-year deal (with a likely cap hit in the $8-9M range)? We have no linebackers.
I am feeling less bullish about the decision to keep LW. Putting ourselves in a position where we spent draft capital, have no leverage and have to overpay is amateurish, and admitting that publicly is even worse. GMs should be master negotiators for the amounts they are paid.
They don’t have as much money as people think. Approx $40m in effective space but that doesn’t account for draft class, practise squad etc.
So Queen signing was unrealistic IMO
Good DL makes LB better.
Seahawks have built from outside in for the last 5 years and what has it gotten them?
A shiny new coaching staff.
Queen had his best year because the guys in front of him had a great year.
Do you believe the guys in front of Queen will match that in 2024 without Williams?
They couldn’t afford both, and I’m certain Schneider was more than happy to leave the defensive version of Peteball in the past, where it belongs.
Queen looked like a bust until they brought Roquan Smith in. And he had a ferocious DL in front of him. Neither of which will be here for him in Seattle.
He’s a risk in that regard – has he really found a new gear or will he fade back into mediocrity in a less ideal situation? Too rich a contract for that gamble, IMO.
They are gonna have to sign a slew of guys in the later rounds of FA to help fill all of our holes, so I can see why they are keeping their powder dry. Lock surprises me – seems we could’ve matched the Giants on that deal.
If this was a decision based on McDonald’s view that Queen isn’t the LB he wants for this defense, then I totally get that. Or the arguments about collecting comp picks. I don’t buy the cost angle though. The details on Queen’s contract came out – $6m cap hit for 2024. I hope we don’t end up paying roughly the same amount (or just a little less) for an older, less exciting vet.
Joseph Jewell can plug a cheap gap at LB and can certainly tackle.
The Justin Fields to Seahawks talk is weird. Not because of even his fit, but my god the hot takes on Seahawks twitter that Fields is somehow a better QB that Geno, and I’m not even a huge Geno fan.
If his market has bottomed out to the point where he is truly cheap I could see taking a shot on whether you can develop him while he spends a (cheap) year on the roster. But that seems unlikely.
Dregur & Patrick,
Unless it was for a 5th rd pick, I don’t see the point. I understand we’re installing a new system, so Geno doesn’t have the same edge, but feels has shown inconsistency through different schemes, and I don’t see him getting it together all of a sudden. 🤷🏻♂️
I don’t want him period. Will need to be resigned, has showed that he can only turn the ball over.
We have moved on from bringing in retreads. It’s a wasted resource no matter what we would give up.
I’d rather they use that late day 3 in a trade on a QB draft pick.
The Bears are being unrealistic, anyway. What they want for Fields isn’t what the rest of the league is willing to give up.
Exactly. He’s failed and you clearly don’t want him. So why is anyone going to give you anything meaningful? You get offered a used bag of footballs, be lucky that you even got that offer.
Honestly gotta say I’m glorying a little bit in the fact that the press has finally got smacked with a wet fish that Fields isn’t the next great QB. Or worth pursuing with vigor.
For those who haven’t read me type this:
38 starts
38 fumbles
30 interceptions
135 sacks
His 61.4% comp last year was his career high.
But sure, he makes a cool highlight 3x a year with a crazylegs play, so…he’s gotta be worth a fortune right?
Right?
Exactly cha. I would think that CHI’s ask for him has to be the laugh of the league. At least we’re not the butt of this joke. Lol
Rapaport just went on NFLN and said with the straight face that the Bears haven’t traded Fields because they’re still “assessing their options at #1”
I know you gotta pay the bills a little Ian, but my goodness…
Unless Chicago just found some thing, they hate about Caleb Williams, that report is beyond hilarious.
He can’t believe that people are that stupid, can he?
From various sources…
All 32 teams are represented at Oregon’s Pro Day, but two have a sizeable contingent.
Patriots: QBs coach T.C. McCartney, College scouting director Camren Williams, National scout Tony Kinkela, Area scout J.T. Hill.
Bears: Head Coach Matt Eberflus, Offensive Coordinator Shane Waldron, Wide Receiver Coach Chris Beatty, Offensive Line Coach Chris Morgan.
Prospects: IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson, QB Bo Nix, WR Troy Franklin, RB Bucky Irving, CB Khyree Jackson, DT Popo Aumavae.
Ian Rapoport reported on NFLN that the Bears are going to take their ”
full contingent to Caleb Williams’s pro day in two weeks (and presumably others) and will not trade Justin Fields until they determine ‘for sure which quarterback they are going to select’.
Happy to pass on Queen at almost $14m apy.
But we need LBs, and the draft isn’t deep enough at that position, nor do we have the capital, to plug the hole without FA help.
Watching for Devin White, Isaiah Simmons, Tyrell Dodson. Also maybe a cheaper player like Josey Jewell, Nicholas Morrow, or Willie Gay.
I would be totally fine with two cheaper LBs and see if the draft falls the right way for us to draft one to come in and compete.
MacDonald is probably the key to any vet signing here.
Queen would have been approximately a $6m cap hit for 2024. Hardly prohibitive.
Mortgage the future on a mediocre talent like Queen. Can’t see it. Unless Pete were here. That’s the kind of boneheaded move I’d expect of him.
Lol at all the fans saying the season is over already because Queen and Brooks signed elsewhere. This just confirms that MM and JS are hunting for LB and safety in the draft
Tells me that a lot of fans fall victim to car salesmen and people calling about their extended warranties….
More likely that they will be hunting the value section over the next few days IMO
Could Tyler Huntley be a possible free agent signing and complete with Geno and a drafted QB for the starting job?
Seems very possible. The backup QB market is pretty thin at this point. It’s pretty much just Huntley, Dobbs, Flacco… Mason Rudolph? It’s a bit bleak, really.
I’m surprised they let Lock walk for what the Giants offered. Assuming they must have another backup QB in mind from the FA pool. Huntley maybe?
I wonder if he thought that he has a better chance beating out Jones and/or a rookie instead of Geno.
I tend to believe that this is more of an accurate statement than us letting him walk away. Contracts are a two-way street I think.Lock knew it would be an uphill battle with Geno getting $26M+ this year
Which is exactly why I thought it unwise to pick up Geno’s contract. I think Schneider thought Geno was worth more in trade than he is. Once no one offered enough, Lock realized his chances of starting had declined precipitously, no matter how many times Mcdonald and Schneider spoke his name.
What’s sad is I see no reason Lock couldn’t have won as many games as Smith, plus offer an outside shot that he could develop into a true franchise guy. If he plays well in New York, Seattle’s gonna be kicking itself — hopefully in the nuts, good and hard.
That’s a pretty reasonable belief, really. He knows Daniel Jones will be gone in a year, and is likely to get benched if he repeats last season. Geno is the unquestioned starter this year for us and he probably read the writing on the wall that we are seeking a long-term QB in the draft. He’ll get much more playing time in NY and could parlay it into a starter’s contract in 2025.
Man, I’m a bit bummed over missing out on Lock. I have long thought they should have rolled with him right away instead of Geno. I have never bought that Geno was that much better. I think we would have rolled with Lock this year had it not been for all the dead money we have.
Well, good luck to him. I think we could regret this. He has a lot more promise than Paxton Lynch ever did.
Pretty much exactly what I was thinking, except that I figured there was a reasonable chance he could win the starting job. The Geno cap hit is spent. Doesn’t matter whether he starts or sits.
💯
Would you trade 16 + 78 (or a 2025 R2) + Geno Smith to Chicago for 9 + Fields?
Absent trades, Giants are probably the only team between #3 and #9 who might pick a QB, so trading up and bypassing MINN, DEN, LV, and NO would give Schneider his pick of QB 3 or 4.
I would trade 16 and Geno for Fields and 9. On draft day, if who we want is right there.
We might very well see Schneider doing cartwheels on camera in the war room, if he pulled that off.
Remember when Mel Kiper said Atlanta was going to trade #8 overall to Chicago for Fields?
Ha! Kiper should know better than that….
Kiper says some really stupid stuff. His genius was as a marketer of the draft. He’s PT Barnum in that sense. As a draft analyst, he’s Barney Fife.
https://twitter.com/JimNagy_SB/status/1767584440354574794?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Interesting for Seattle has a level of interest in Nix.
I expect them to be at each workout for the top guys.
Question is, will there be selfies? Tik Tok videos? Someone put into the top 8?
If you want to keep it secret put it on MySpace. There ain’t no Russians on MySpace.
MySpace? Does it still exist?
Yes. Believe it or not, it has more users than Truth Social. Look it up.
It’s our Offensive Coordinator Ryan Grubb, not just some area scout.
It’s one hour of flight time from King County Airport to Eugene.
I’d be shocked if Grubb didn’t attend.
In a cruel world, the Seahawks select Nix and Penix goes to the Rams.
I really would not be shocked.
The rams are trying to set their oline. E ery team would love a great oline but a few can benefit more. Stafford is at a great spot to actually still win a big one and be a bridge.
Seattle now at 4 projected comp picks:
https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks
4,5,6,6
Knowing how much JS loves draft picks, you have to think he will prioritize keeping at least a few of these. Maybe at this point of the game he rationalizes signing two more free agents that would cancel out the two 6 round picks and use that to fill holes at safety and linebacker. And maybe he hopes that a few more of our FA get signed, but at the moment looking pretty good!
I doubt they sign more than one guy who would qualify and cancel out a comp. They’re lean on money and need to fill too many holes to splurge, even a little.
Yup, like Rob said, try to sign players that people cut from here on out.
ya I was meaning that as a max. ideally they don’t cancel the picks out at all, sign cut guys or wait til may, but if they feel they HAVE to have someone then i would think they might be ok cancelling out one or two, but you have to think its a top priority to at least preserve the 4 and 5 at this point
I’m liking that we’re stocking up on compensatory picks. They could be very useful if we pull the trigger and go all out for our QB this year. With the cap room and picks we would have a good amount of options despite not having a first round pick and/or second round pick for a couple of years. I like this possible strategy a lot.
Yup really feels like it empowers us to trade up if thats the goal and not feel naked future years, or just really stock the team, or move up or down as needed. really no downside to lots of comp picks so im sure he will try to protect all of them.
Rayshawn Jenkins and Eric Kendricks are candidates.
Actually they should be at 5 cause DJ Dallas signed elsewhere
4 is the max you can get in a year and they have to be over ~$2.4M/yr to be part of the calculation
Word didn’t know that thanks.
Although I think you can get 5 if a coach is part of the equation right?
I think that’s right, but not 100%.
I know you can only net 4 from players lost. The rules for losing minority coaches feel like they might operate independently.
Great piece and appreciate all your work Rob!
This is off topic, but it seems like in some of these recent articles you aren’t mentioning future class position strengths as much as years past (i.e. I believe you mentioned last year that this year’s QB class was going to be stellar, prior to many staying in school, so the Seahawks should wait on the position).
Just wondering if players staying in school more is influencing including less of that, because there’s more incentive to stay and thus harder to predict?
Thanks!
To be honest, I only really talk about next year in terms of quarterbacks. I’ve often pushed back against the ‘next year is better’ rhetoric that seems to pop up annually. I’m aware of a lot more players for next year already because of the NIL situation but there are also a ton of players I just haven’t studied yet
Can next year’s comp pics be traded on this year’s draft?
If so is the FO loading up to move up to grab a QB this year?
No
Mostly no.
But some have tried the “we’ll trade you our 4th round pick, but if we get a 3rd round comp pick you’ll get that one” to sorta circumvent it.
Could the comp picks be a way of stacking up capital to move up?
Haha, I just said similar things right above you. It’s a good strategy. Especially if we aren’t picking in the top two rounds the next two years and with the cap room we’ll have available next off-season to fill holes.
Why is everyone so caught up in comp picks? They aren’t even available until 2025 so they are really irrelevant until FA is over.
They are important because if you care about the draft, it’s getting basically free picks. Yes it’s not til next year but that makes next years draft way more interesting, the ability to move up or down and get more starters is a huge benefit. Puka was a comp pick, you can get great players with comp picks.
If you care about drafting and care about long term health of the team you should care about comp picks imo.
You can care about the draft and not feel like you have to live for a comp pick in the 5th round or a couple of 4th-round picks. You have to lose talent to get a pick and the pick usually isn’t great to begin with. Then you can’t sign players if you are playing the comp pick game. Seattle is in no position to worry about a comp pick in 2025 when they need to fill out a roster.
Except they are in a position to gain comp picks because they can’t afford to splurge on more large signings, whether that’s been keeping their own players or getting new ones. They’ll be bargain bin shopping from here on out it appears and that’ll allow them to hold onto free draft picks.
We’re not even really losing talent anyone here is mad about. And people feel good about the possibilities of replacing some of these players leaving with talent left later in free agency or the draft.
It’s possible and maybe even likely we take a step back, but the idea people have right now is that we now have coaches who will get more out of the players they have/get. That’s why people feel comfortable skipping on Queen and getting someone less expensive, because Queen would’ve been one of those less expensive guys a year ago if he were a free agent, but Mike MacDonald may have been the catalyst along with other players around him to get him that paycheck.
Understood and agree but the obsession with the pics is a bit over the top.
Obsession or cause for celebration for losing players you didn’t want anyway?
At this point, let’s keep those picks. They can be used to trade for players (or allow us to trade our normal picks and not really lose anything) rather than buying expensive free agents.
In my view, the best and most successful teams focus primarily on the draft. Not splashy free agent signings. I hope we play the comp pick game from here on out because 2025 will come and then 2026 right behind it (and so on and so forth). God willing, you and I will be here for a while. Consider it like money in a retirement account. It’s there for your future self.
You can sign players, you just either have to sign cut players or sign players after a certain date.
I agree they have needs, but you shouldn’t throw away a draft pick if you can avoid it. Ultimately its a balance. Throwing away a 4th and 5th round comp pick would be foolish.
Now I know they can’t be traded this year in the draft (thanks Rob) I have to agree to a point.
But this FO have specifically said they value draft picks, so perhaps it is a mid term strategy rather than immediate.
And at 5MM for 1 year….i would take that deal with my eyes closed…oh well
If they’ve only got $10m left, that would be half the cap space
that’s fair….in my mind the Fant deal was the mistake. I understand the rationale and he does have potential, but given all the other weapons we already have on offense, i would have preferred a lower investment in someone like Mike Gesicki for 3-4M, and spend the delta on Chinn or a LB. But i do trust Schneider, lets see what happens…there is a reason why he is a GM and i am not
Felt like Chinn would’ve been a fun add but overall happy that we’re not dumping money into LBs and Safeties. For too long we have been paying premiums for those guys fat off press clippings and waygu steaks served designer platters.
Get some hungry dogs in there that want to make a name and put paint on helmet.
Uhhh more comp pick talk.
Comp picks aren’t as easy to get as people want to believe. There are a few different ways to go about it but all come with a cost of sorts unless you have a super stacked roster and are willing to coast on it. At its foundation you have to draft extremely well for it to work, you lose real talents to get better picks and they all come a year later – which makes them actually drop a round in value.
They just aren’t worth chasing imo unless a team is in a very advantageous position to do so or takes an occasional very calculated year here and there to try to pursue them.
A good number of them will be lower round picks and as I said then coming a year later further devalues them by a round, to top it off you have to withhold from picking up much if anything in free agency yourself.
They just aren’t very practical for most nfl teams to try to bank on and contrary to all the Puka Nucuaa championeers out there most of them don’t end up amounting to much – and for the proof of that all one need do is look at all the Seahawks comp picks drafted under Schneider and you might be surprised at how bad the track record is there…
If they happen to work out here and there in your favor in the natural flow of things great, but there are just too many reasons/situations to avoid aggressively pursuing them imo.
They have the picks in the bank though. They don’t need to aggressively pursue anything.
Why are some people so allergic to talking about this? You’d think they were a bad thing with how many people are hating on them.
Most NFL picks don’t amount to much. That doesn’t mean they hold no value. Riq Woolen, Kyren Williams and Tyron Bland are pro-bowlers who were taken in the 5th round. Six teams with 4th round comp picks passed on them. Does that mean the comp picks were worthless or that they missed on guys?
Our own Malcolm Smith (SB MVP & interceptor of the Sherm tip) was a 7th round comp pick. Matt Hasselbeck was a 6th round comp pick.
Maybe the most famous – Tom Brady was a 6th round comp pick too.
💯
We’ve traded for Lynch, Diggs and other players with picks worse than the comp picks we have. So it seems a stretch to say they’re actually not all that valuable. The picks offer more opportunities, whether that’s drafting a player or trading the pick away.
You’re right though, it’s not a strategy you can continually embrace without creating talented players that you no longer have room for on your roster. Drafting or trading well is the key along with coaching up cheaper players to greater value and losing them.
Cherry picking rare excellent players that have been drafted with comp picks (as others have like Brodie above) or as you have done with surmising you can just trade comp picks and get great players is really stretching things as reasons to justify all the things that are actually necessary for a team to do and/or have in place situationally to acquire said comp picks imo.
I could pick out and name many, many more players who did’nt become much in the nfl that were comp picks (as I gave evidence to with Schneider’s history with them) so pulling a tiny few out to try and fit a narrative is disingenuous in a discussion imo.
And I never said comp picks are “actually not that valuable” as you claim I did. My point that I said was that they are’nt as easy to get as people think(especially the more valuable 3rd and possibly 4th rounders – seeing as it’s the end of the 4th round) and they just are’nt a very practical thing for most teams to pursue for a number of reasons.
There is nothing truly ‘free’ about comp picks – the whole reason you get them is for real loses to your roster and the odds of replacing someone with a comp pick that would perform as well or better than who you lost are very slim and are put off for at least a year(comp picks given a year later, not to mention how long it takes said rookie to develop). You lose a high end talent that was more than likely drafted in the first or second round to big dollars in free agency – so your left with a sizable hole on your team this year and can’t replace him yourself in free agency (would nullify your comp) and a year later you get a player in the draft who is an end of third or end of fourth round pick. I fail to see how this helps your team that much especially with the odds – (not the cherry picked name from the past nor some rare fortuitous trade) – saying the player won’t amount to much; and I’m giving the benefit of an earlier pick here. You could lose a decent starter for fair money and only receive say an end of 5th or end of sixth rounder in return a year later – and remember it being a year later automatically devalues the pick by one round just as if trading a next years pick has a loss of one round of value due to the wait required.
For me it’s just not a game worth actively playing unless a number of conditions are in your favor to do so, so like I said before for most teams I don’t think it’s something worth actively pursuing. If it all comes together and you are lucky enough to take advantage of it while still be able to keep and/or improve your roster all without affecting comps somehow then good on you but it is harder to truly do this than most people think, most especially with any consistency year in year out.
If a comp pick is bad, that’s on the FO. If, for instance, the Seahawks lost a player and got a 3rd or 4th round comp pick, that can still be useful. There’s lots of quality starters in the league who were day 2 or 3 picks. And the more bullets you have, the more shots you get.
True or not, I generally try to look at comp picks that affect good teams because everyone else are trying to grab players that looked good on their rosters.
Willie Gay to NO for a 1 year prove it at up to $5m.
I wouldn’t be upset if we’d done that deal.
He basically acted as a role player
All of these signings are so ‘meh’ to me
For one year to see if Macdonald can coach him up?
I’m okay he’s a Saint now. Nothing lost. Just getting a little itchy, considering the early shift to prove it deals.
But NO is going to have to cut a player (or players) to make room for him. They had only $1.087 million in cap space (-$2.972 effective cap space) before they made that deal.
Of course, they do plan on trading Marcus Lattimore.
How about Jerome Baker? He was cut. Seems like we could cobble a decent roster together with our own players, players that were just cut, and other signings after May 1.
Okay, Hawks, go get me Reyshawn Jenkins or Justin Simmons, Tyrel Dodson and a year of Clowney.
People on twitter including Seattle Media about to hit the panic button.
We shall be geateful that the Front Office does not suffer the same FOMO as it creates the very contracts that slowed the Seahawks to begin with..
On another note the Commanders signings correctly prove why the majority of the blog was skeptical of a Dan Quinn hire. No new ideas, just bringing a bunch of „his“ guys with him trying to replicate the Dallas D without Parsons and Lawrence.
Very content with the developments since the conclusion of the season!
Ya, the collective hysteria when we haven’t filled out our roster by weeks end is going to be pretty ridiculous.
https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/news-nfl-pro-day-notes-western-michigan-south-carolina-latest-spencer-rattler-edge-rusher-marshawn-kneeland
Kneeland is also interesting. He had good metrics at the Senior Bowl. I thought he would run faster, but 4.75 is fine.
I just watched Nix at his pro day. Definitely looked better than the combine. Obviously he’s relaxed and has his own receivers.
He put more velocity on throws. Threw with more anticipation. Certainly didn’t hurt his standing in the draft. His deep ball took a lot more effort than Penix. He needed the full windup and extension, as opposed to Penix and his effortless flick.
And, I still have no clue where he goes.
As we watch more of these signings occur, it does seem like the Hawks are focusing on accumulating comp picks. This likely means a step back for at least a year or two to inject the roster with youth, rather than hanging on just to compete for wildcard spots. And that is probably a wise decision, as hard as it may be to swallow for fans. I suspect the Hawks will look to sign a LB and safety from among the players that have been cut (i.e. don’t count against the comp formula) and/or wait until after the draft. Entering the draft without solid hedges at LB and S would normally mean pressure to draft these positions (perhaps at the expense of best available player), but if leadership accepts that this team isn’t realistically competing for a division title, that pressure falls away.
I don’t understand what player they cut or left in FA that was a crucial part of being a winner. They still have every weapon on the offense. The defense shed two shit safeties, and the LB room will be what it’s been for a good while. Just, meh. And the best safety on the team is still under contract.
This is how they build for the future. Dump crap contracts, crap players, let low ceiling players walk and not overpay on a position that’s blown up in free agency. Now they can sign a few disgruntled vets and focus all their energy on the draft.
Spend wisely, pick accordingly and properly utilize what you’ve acquired.
While yes we need players, people act like we had a top 10 defense and not one of the worst in the league for years.
Agree completely
I am curious how you read my post as complaining about who they were dropping? Where do you see that?
The “step back” comment was related to not targeting players in free agency who might help them now. Notwithstanding all of the firm comments on this board, they had enough cap space to pick up a LB and a S if they wanted to. They chose not to. The upcoming draft isn’t particularly strong at either position, and picking from what is left over among cut players and/or after the draft isn’t likely to turn this team into an instant contender.
But thanks for the lecture anyways!
I took it as agreeing with you and speaking to your line “as hard as that may be for fans to swallow.”
I personally was agreeing with both of your comments.
Paying large amounts for what was out there wouldn’t have made us a contender either though. So overpay and suck, or collect comp picks, get better value and suck?
Take your pick, we weren’t going to be an instant contender… unless our coaching turns things around.
I agree. That is why I think this was probably the right choice. But, it may involve a step back from the mediocrity of wildcard contention for the next year or two. At least, it seems like it may play out that way on paper, but I have been surprised before.
Good grief with comp picks. Glad I didn’t make a drinking game out of it.
They aren’t going through free agency shooting for comp picks. If it happens, terrific. But they are trying to fill out a roster with limited cap space. That is why they will have to so many if things ended today.
But why not at this stage of a rebuild? The focus is shedding large, underperforming contracts and fixing the cap by spending wisely and not overspending for mediocre players in FA anyways, which is exactly the way you also happen to… get comp picks.
And if we trade a haul to move up for a QB this year or next, having 4 extra picks at least gives you some quantity to help offset the cost a little bit.
No, comp picks are not the be all end all, but I don’t see why you are rolling your eyes at them.
Because every sixth comment is about comp picks and now it’s been the goal?
Right now it’s either freaking out because we haven’t signed anyone or it’s keeping track of comp picks we might pick and complaining that any signings take away from that.
At this point, I just don’t really get the LW signing. If we are gonna do the comp pick thing, why not get a third or fourth for him too? Why not invest in guys with more years left in their career?
Because they aren’t just going to wave the white flag. Without him there is no leader in defense and no top talent other than a 2nd year qb.
Are we really worried about signing a very good player, the best player on the defense last year, and that we lost out on a 3rd round pick?
I’d just rather either really go for it or take a conscious step back and reload for 2-3 years down the road, seeing if we can tap into some younger, upside players. This just feels like a recipe for another 7-10 win team, where we are neither an actual contender or able to draft blue chip players. LW is a great player, but the concern is by the time we are actually ready to compete, he is declining.
On the other hand, maybe we will find a lot of diamond-in-the-rough types and be surprisingly competitive.
Agree
Comp picks are the only thing “free” about free agency.
The way FA is going I think JS/MM have kind of shown their hand. Schneider said that the team underperformed last year. So, obviously he thinks we should have been more like an 11-win team than a 9-win team. It would then make sense that they want to keep the good core players who have appropriate value and fit whatever scheme is going to be deployed whether on offense or defense. They are making solid, not showy moves within a limited budget. Usually they fill enough holes so they don’t have to draft for need. There’s no reson to expect anything different this year, in fact the contrary.
I think it’s pretty telling if they don’t sign a FA quarterback before the draft.
Our guards were already maulers. Phil Haynes 322 lbs and Damien Lewis 327 lbs. Not to even mention the other LSU boy Anthony Bradford 332 lbs. His issues were with pass pro, but I did see him drive DTs 5-10 years back. Not much finesse in that trio. The tackles were not that differrnt. Abe Lucas has prototypical size 6’6 322 pads. Admittedly, Cross is just a little smaller at 6’5 311 lbs. Stone Forsythe is a giant at 6’8 but a tad bit skinny as he weighs the same as Olu. But almost the same. Center than has been a different story that Evan Brown and OluOluOluOlu are a few inches shorter, but Brown is 320 lbs and Olu 310 lbs. None of them are Nate Newton huge, true. Checked that the average NFL OL size is 6’4 and 315lbs. Guards and centers a little smaller than tackles. Given that, our OL was quite average in size. A little above average in fact. Not seeing finesse there, just looking for standard size. Bradford is already on the larger side. I would not be against going for way above size, especially inside. Just that the too guys have average size. A few too OTs, like Mims and Latham, are legit 340 pounders, but even Joe Alt has Stone Forsythe size. Maybe the better focus would be on bench reps.
It’s not just about size
I doubt anyone watched Seattle’s OL and thought ‘maulers’ in 2023
Fair. And that’s just it. Strength and explosiveness. Lucas and Bradford have some. Cross, Haynes and Brown very little. Forsythe absolutely none. Dissly far more. I agree that we need more power beyond just size.