This is a guest post by Curtis Allen
At 3-0, Mike Macdonald has the Seahawks accomplishing something that not many other teams have done — winning games while breaking in an entirely new coaching staff with new systems on both sides of the ball. To be sure, growing pains have been present. Yet skill, hard work in practice and determination are compensating for those challenges and then some.
It’s very easy to look at their first three opponents and dismiss their success as the result of a soft schedule. What can easily be overlooked is the rate at which this team is beginning to gel. Whenever Macdonald is asked to comment on their success so far, he quickly pivots to the truth. They have a long way to go as a team and he has them not resting on their laurels of success but using that as a springboard towards future growth.
Based on everything we have seen in training camp, the preseason and the first three games, I think we can trust this coaching staff to identify and work on their issues in a progressive manner. The status quo will not be tolerated. The message is being sent loud and clear — success is built on hard work and an understanding that attention to detail and keeping the fundamentals in front of you are core principles they will adhere to.
Which brings us to this week’s matchup against a familiar foe: the Detroit Lions have been a regular part of the Seahawks’ schedule. This will be the fourth year in a row they will play each other. And 2025 may be the fifth, depending on the division place both finish in.
The Seahawks have won all three games.
We have consistently identified ways to beat this Lions team (click here and here).
It begins and ends with containing this powerful offense – particularly in the run game – while taking advantage of a middling defense to apply scoreboard pressure and forcing Jared Goff win the game for them.
Fact: in every Lions’ loss from 2022 on, their run/pass mix on offense has favored the pass.
Fact: in only two of the Lions’ 25 wins in that same stretch have they asked Goff to throw more than 60% of the time. And one of those wins? Week 11 last year against Chicago? They needed to throw to get back into the game in the fourth quarter because… Goff had thrown three interceptions, one in each quarter.
Side note: How Goff has parlayed his performance into a 4-year extension with $170 million guaranteed is Exhibit A that the NFL has gone crazy for Quarterbacks.
Anyway, at the risk of copying and pasting once again, here is our previous explanation of why they need to rely so heavily on the running game, and how to exploit that vulnerability on defense:
Their offense is working because they consistently call for Goff to get rid of the ball as soon as he possibly can.
The Lions have found something that works with Jared Goff’s limited abilities. Hand it off to your explosive runners and let them move the ball downfield. Run some play action with designed pass plays that are one-look and throw and let them gain yards after the catch with their athleticism. Take the snap and throw quick slants.
it is remarkable how much he telegraphs his intentions by not even looking at anyone but his primary target. He practically must throw to his first read for the play to be successful. Anything else is an adventure.
If that is the case, the strategy is obvious. Get the corners up on their men. Press them, take away the easy catch and run and make Goff hold onto the ball and think. Safeties and coverage linebackers, read his eyes. I would be comfortable gambling by instructing the defenders to break on his first read and make him pay for his lack of vision.
Make Jared Goff beat you.
Watch a textbook example of this:
TARIQ WOOLEN PICK-6 🔥 @_Tariqwoolen
📺: #SEAvsDET on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/CvE1Ql7jkg pic.twitter.com/8HvNHlDLra— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2022
The coverage team is doing their job. Goff is having to wait and scan the field before throwing. His quick target is not immediately open. His feet get a little happy, and he throws to Sam LaPorta. Riq Woolen has read his eyes and with his track-star speed, closed the gap quickly and stepped in front of the throw and returned it for a touchdown.
To get to this point, the defense needs to contain the running game, and the offense needs to score to apply pressure.
The most complete example of this strategy was delivered by the Baltimore Ravens in their Week 6 beatdown of the Lions. This is how the first eight series went:
Ravens: Touchdown in 4:23 (4 runs, 3 passes)
Lions: 4y Run, Incomplete Pass, Sack, Punt
Ravens: Touchdown in 5:46 (4 runs, 7 passes)
Lions: 2y Pass, 4y Run, Incomplete Pass, Punt
Ravens: Touchdown in 3:57 (1 run, 7 passes)
Lions: 3y Run, Sack, 13y Pass, Punt
Ravens: Touchdown in 2:56 (4 runs, 2 passes)
Lions: Seven passes, no runs, ball turned over on downs
In a quarter and a half, the Ravens had completely short-circuited the Lions’ game plan on offense and made them one-dimensional. They cruised to an easy 38-6 win, with Tyler Huntley getting a series at the end of the game.
Can the Seahawks pull off something similar?
They can. Perhaps not to the extreme degree that the Ravens did. But it is within their grasp.
How?
Take Advantage of the Lions Defense
Detroit’s defensive backfield has performed poorly so far this season. Cornerbacks Terron Arnold and Carlton Davis are among the league’s worst-performing players (in 44 targets they have zero interceptions and one – one! – pass defensed among them) and excellent safety Brian Branch has appeared on the injury list with an illness and may not play.
The Lions reached the NFC Championship game last year, but that is more a tribute to their coaching and their ability to implement their offensive game-control vision than their defense. They were in the bottom-10 of the NFL in points allowed and passing yards allowed.
Their rushing defense was a top-five unit, and while anytime you can be in the top-five of any statistic, that is good, it is a bit of a red herring. Their ability to run their offense successfully set up the opponent to have to take to the air to keep up. They faced the third fewest number of rushing attempts and were rarely tested on the ground.
With Ken Walker back and Zach Charbonnet coming off a good week against the Dolphins, the Seahawks should be able to use the rushing attack to balance out the offense and keep the ball out of the Lion offense’s hands as much as they would like.
They have done it before, more than once.
But what about the passing game? Aidan Hutchinson stands as the solitary obstacle in the Seahawks’ way to running their game plan however they like. He already has 6.5 sacks and is looking like he is putting together a case for Defensive Player of the Year. How can the Seahawks keep him in check, particularly when he lines up the bulk of his snaps against the Right Tackle? With the Seahawks running out their third choice there in Stone Forsythe?
Look to the game last year, when Hutchinson played 68 snaps against Forsythe and Jake Curhan and did not record a sack. How did they do it? Have a look at the tape.
You will see the Seahawks offense using every trick available to them — double-teaming him with a tight end or running back, having a tight end chip them on their way to a route, dialing up quick passes to get rid of the ball before he can get home, and moving the offense away from his side of the field.
They also occasionally got creative. Watch 3:22 where they bring in three tight ends and double him with Dissly and Parkinson, while Geno Smith throws to Noah Fant for a nice gain.
To be fair, Hutchinson still had an impact on the game. At 3:33 you see him bullying Curhan right into Smith’s lap and making him throw the ball away (followed by Myers wildly missing a field goal try). At 11:16 you see him as a key part of the pressure that has Smith taking a very ill-advised sack late in the game that allowed the Lions to kick a field goal and force OT.
Hutchinson is going to have his plays. But the Seahawks need to make sure they have him covered for the bulk of the game, as they did last year.
If Ryan Grubb and Scott Huff can make this happen, the game should be well in control.
Keep the Lions Running Game in Check
This would appear troublesome, with the Seahawks missing some of their best run defenders to injury in Leonard Williams, Boye Mafe, Uchenna Nwosu and rookie Byron Murphy tonight.
But consider this point from earlier this week:
Last year against the Lions, the #seahawks sacked Goff 2x and pressured him 10x/27% with:
Nwosu, Dre, Reed at NT, Edwards, Taylor, and rookie Hall.
Boye Mafe didn’t play.
It was Witherspoon’s NFL debut. He didn’t blitz.
Bobby Wagner didn’t record a pressure in 4 blitzes.
— Curtis Allen (@curtis93969) September 28, 2024
Dre’Mont Jones and Jarran Reed are ready to play. Derick Hall has taken a big leap in his second year. Mafe didn’t play last season, Leonard Williams was not yet a Seahawk and Edwards and Taylor have been replaced with Johnathan Hankins, Mike Morris, Trevis Gipson and (likely) Tyus Bowser.
At Linebacker, Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks have been replaced by Tyrell Dodson and (possibly) Jerome Baker and a backup combo of Tyrice Knight and Drake Thomas.
That team last year held the Lions to 3.78 yards per carry and one explosive run.
Can this year’s team hold to that standard? Or do even better?
Remind me – who coached that Ravens defense that kept the Lions clamped down last year and constantly gave the ball back to their offense?
This game will be the biggest test yet of Mike Macdonald’s defensive acumen. Playing without four key defenders along the line will require quite a bit of his scheming and play calling skills. Also helpful is the Lions will be without Center Frank Ragnow – one of the NFL’s best – for this matchup.
We saw this game before the season started as a test of two good teams. Injuries have altered that somewhat. It is now a test of good coaching and scheming.
And so, this game will show us another element of this new Seahawks regime. Can they win a tough game on the road against a quality opponent without a good chunk of their best players available?
I would not bet against them.