Amid the fear of an underwhelming appointment that may or may not be coming next week in Seattle, I do think one thing is pretty clear. John Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback. I think whatever happens with the appointment of a Head Coach, adding a new QB is going to be a priority, together with pairing the player with a strong developer of quarterbacks in one form or another.
Schneider’s lukewarm assessment of Geno Smith at his press conference was a major shift in energy from Pete Carroll’s unwavering support. With the team facing a cap-crunch this off-season, and with a degree of resetting required post-Carroll, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility they’ll just move on from Smith. Especially if they can’t work out a way to lower his $31.2m cap hit in 2024.
It’ll all come down to how Schneider feels about this class of quarterbacks. There are six prominent ones, who could all go in the top-50. The top-three of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye (who’s a bit overrated) will likely go in the top-10. After that, it’s a fluid situation. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix and J.J. McCarthy find a home in round one — with plenty of QB-desperate teams — or see any of them last into day two.
I do think at #16 they Seahawks will have options. If Schneider likes someone outside of the ‘big three’ he should be able to land them one way or another, even if it involves some movement. In this latest mock, I want to represent that possibility. It’s a two-round mock. Obviously the Seahawks don’t start with a second rounder but there are trades involved, so scroll down to find out what happens (with a full explanation after the mock).
Round One
#1 Chicago (v/CAR) — Caleb Williams (QB, USC)
Williams will be the top pick and Chicago would be mad to trade out of this spot. In this scenario, they move Justin Fields to another team — Atlanta perhaps?
#2 Washington — Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)
I think Daniels is the clear QB2 in the draft and with Lamar Jackson set to win MVP and potentially the Super Bowl, there’ll be little reason for the Commanders not to be inspired by their near neighbours in Baltimore and take Daniels.
#3 New England — Marvin Harrison Jr (WR, Ohio State)
Pass on Drake Maye? Yes. There will be mixed opinions on Maye. The Patriots instead decide to select the best overall talent in the draft, then trade back into round one later to get their QB.
#4 Arizona — Rome Odunze (WR, Washington)
Odunze might be the safest pick in the draft. A++ character, body control, speed, hands, consistency and professionalism.
#5 LA Chargers — Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia)
The ideal pick for Jim Harbaugh and his offense.
#6 NY Giants — Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina)
As mentioned, Maye is going to be a lot more polarising than people realise. Some teams will really like him, others will be less enthused. But he’ll go in the top-10.
#7 Tennessee — Malik Nabers (WR, LSU)
I think he’s similar to A.J. Brown. Time to rectify an all-time error by the Titans.
#8 Atlanta — Jared Verse (DE, Florida State)
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cardinals took him at #4. He’s the complete pass rusher.
#9 Chicago — Chop Robinson (DE, Penn State)
In terms of quickness and bend off the edge, Robinson is off the charts. He’d create an incredible double-threat with Montez Sweat.
#10 NY Jets — Tyler Guyton (T, Oklahoma)
Every time I watched him I was wowed. He’s incredibly light on his feet for his size but still packs a punch.
#11 Minnesota — Dallas Turner (DE, Alabama)
I think he’s a bit overrated, his frame worries me and he’s not as electric to make up for it as Chop Robinson. Still, the league needs pass rushers.
#12 Denver — JC Latham (T, Alabama)
Incredible talent. As with Guyton, he’s so light on his feet despite his massive size. They are both brilliant prospects.
#13 Las Vegas — Taliese Fuaga (T, Oregon State)
There’s nothing graceful about Fuaga. He’s a beast. He’ll line-up and hammer you.
#14 New Orleans — Olu Fashanu (T, Penn State)
I think he’s overrated by draft Twitter. All of the physical tools are there but he’s far from the finished product and needs plenty of technical work.
#15 Indianapolis — Terrion Arnold (CB, Alabama)
A fun person with great character and his coverage skills are very impressive. I’m not sure any of the CB class deserves to go this early but it’s a premium position.
#16 Green Bay (v/SEA) — Joe Alt (T, Notre Dame)
I think he’s too tall and I was always left wanting more but the rush on tackles forces Green Bay to leap up to ensure they don’t miss out.
#17 Jacksonville — Amarius Mims (T, Alabama)
He is factory-built to play the position, with minimal body-fat despite his enormous size. His potential is through the roof but he needs to stay on the field.
#18 Cincinnati — Laiatu Latu (DE, UCLA)
Technically very gifted and he uses his hands well but he’ll need to be strong at the POA and there are some medical concerns to check out.
#19 LA Rams — Troy Fautanu (G, Washington)
The Rams can bring him in and try him at tackle or guard.
#20 Pittsburgh — Spencer Rattler (QB, South Carolina)
I get the sense he will have a great draft season and elevate up the board due to his natural talent. He’s so much more dynamic than Kenny Pickett and has a Steelers swag to his personality.
#21 Miami — Graham Barton (C, Duke)
A great blocker who may be unspectacular as a pro but he’ll play for a long time, probably at guard or center.
#22 Philadelphia — Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson)
They desperately need more in the secondary.
#23 Houston (V/CLE) — Byron Murphy (DT, Texas)
I like him based on physical tools and potential but he’s undersized, kind of maxed out and he played in bursts in 2023 — he wasn’t a week-to-week dominant force. Testing will put him in round one though.
#24 Dallas — Jer’Zhan Newton (DT, Illinois)
I think he’ll be dinged for his size and length but there’s no doubting his impact and ability to disrupt.
#25 Seattle (v/GB) — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
I just get the sense John Schneider is set on drafting a quarterback. After trading down, he takes the plunge. Schneider was enamoured with the arm strength of Mahomes and Allen and Penix Jr, despite having flaws, has similar arm talent.
#26 Las Vegas Raiders (v/TB) — Bo Nix (QB, Oregon)
Fearing they’ll miss out on the QB’s, the Raiders move up to secure Nix — who feels like a player who could go either way in his pro-career.
#27 Arizona (v/HOU) — Bralen Trice (DE, Washington)
Once Trice tests well at his size, he’ll get a lot more buzz in this range.
#28 Buffalo — Xavier Legette (WR, South Carolina)
Legette has the frame and his speed to be special, especially if Josh Allen is his quarterback.
#29 Kansas City — Jacob Cowing (WR, Arizona)
He’s such a technically gifted player, I think he’ll go earlier than many think.
#30 Detroit — Kamari Lassiter (CB, Georgia)
It’s the position on defense they need to address the most.
#31 San Francisco — Cooper DeJean (S, Iowa)
A versatile chess-piece of a defender who will test well at the combine.
#32 New England (v/BAL) — J.J. McCarthy (QB, Michigan)
The Patriots trade back into the first round to take McCarthy.
Round Two
#33 Carolina — Kingsley Suamataia (T, BYU)
#34 Baltimore (v/NE) — Kool-aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama)
#35 Arizona — Sedrick Van Pran (C, Georgia)
#36 Washington — Jordan Morgan (G, Arizona)
#37 LA Chargers — Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo)
#38 Tennessee — Cooper Beebe (G, Kansas State)
#39 NY Giants — Jackson Powers-Johnson (C, Oregon)
#40 Washington (v/CHI) — Patrick Paul (T, Houston)
#41 Green Bay (v/NYJ) — T’Vondre Sweat (DT, Texas)
#42 Minnesota — McKinley Jackson (DT, Texas A&M)
#43 Atlanta — Troy Franklin (WR, Oregon)
#44 Tampa Bay (v/LV) — Keon Coleman (WR, Florida State)
#45 New Orleans (v/DEN) — Brian Thomas Jr (WR, LSU)
#46 Indianapolis — Jeremiah Trotter (LB, Clemson)
#47 NY Giants (v/SEA) — Brandon Coleman (G, TCU)
#48 Jacksonville — Chris Braswell (DE, Alabama)
#49 Cincinnati — Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE, Texas)
#50 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Edgerrin Cooper (LB, Texas A&M)
#51 Pittsburgh — Malachi Corley (WR, Western Kentucky)
#52 LA Rams — Jonah Elliss (DE, Utah)
#53 Philadelphia — Jalen McMillan (WR, Washington)
#54 Cleveland — Tez Walker (WR, North Carolina)
#55 Miami — Ladd McKonkey (WR, Georgia)
#56 Dallas — Charles Turner (C, LSU)
#57 Tampa Bay — Ennis Rakestraw Jr (CB, Missouri)
#58 Seattle (v/GB) — Payton Wilson (LB, NC State)
#59 Houston — Ruke Orhorhoro (DT, Clemson)
#60 Buffalo — Kalen King (CB, Penn State)
#61 Kansas City — Xavier Worthy (WR, Texas)
#62 Detroit — Zak Zinter (G, Michigan)
#63 San Francisco — Zach Frazier (C, West Virginia)
#64 Baltimore — Christian Haynes (G, Connecticut)
The trades explained
Green Bay trades with the Seahawks in round one
The Packers want to move up and secure one of the top offensive tackles, so lean on their relationships in Seattle to move up nine spots. Per the trade chart, the Packers would owe 280 points. They have two second round picks so give the Seahawks #57 (330 points) and Seattle in turn gives Green Bay their fourth rounder, pick #118 (56 points).
The Raiders trade back into round one with Tampa Bay
Las Vegas needs a quarterback and having bolstered their line with their top pick, they move back into round one to get a QB. This costs them approximately 240 points according to the trade chart, so they give the Buccs their third rounder at #77 (205 points) and their fifth rounder at #148 (31.8 points).
The Patriots also trade back into round one for a quarterback
New England opts to take Marvin Harrison Jr at #3 and wait on the quarterbacks, pouncing to tap into the Michigan QB pipeline again for J.J. McCarthy. They do a deal with Baltimore, moving from #34 to #32 to get the fifth year option. The jump of two picks costs them a fifth rounder (#137).
Thoughts on Seattle’s two picks
Firstly, the trade. I think the lack of depth beyond round three in this class — given all the players who stayed in school — makes a trade down like this with Green Bay appealing. It suits both parties because the Packers have two second rounders and might want to be aggressive to secure a franchise offensive tackle for Jordan Love. For the Seahawks, they get back into round two.
As noted earlier, I think Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback. So why Michael Penix Jr, given in this scenario he trades down and QB’s #4-6 are all still available? The medical checks are important but Penix Jr ticks a lot of boxes for Schneider. Firstly, the arm talent is right up there with Mahomes/Allen who he previously rated highly. Penix Jr helped elevate his team to contender status and has a ton of starting experience in college, two things he’s often payed attention to. Schneider’s background is Green Bay and a big-play, gunslinger style of football — not methodical dinking and dunking. What Penix Jr lacks in subtlety and intermediate precision, he makes up for with dynamic power to thread the ball into tight windows downfield for key explosives.
Some teams will turn their noses up at Penix Jr and I maintain he could go anywhere from rounds one to three. It’s not just the injuries — it’s the inconsistent streak he had in the middle of the 2023 season, the pre-determined nature of the offense and being left-handed is a bigger issue than many realise. I do think, however, Schneider will see the appeal here provided he gets a full medical green light. In the right system, he also might be able to compete to start quickly.
Getting back into the late second round is also important for Seattle given their lack of cap space and multiple needs. I have them selecting Payton Wilson, who I’m a big fan of. As with Penix Jr, medical checks will be key. He’s stayed healthy for the last two seasons which is reassuring. Plenty of people won’t like the two picks due to the medical issues associated with both players’ history. Yet Wilson and Penix Jr present rare opportunities to get elite skills (Penix Jr — arm strength, Wilson — remarkable speed/pursuit/motor). I wrote more about Wilson in my horizontal board piece recently and have him graded as a blue-chip player. Here’s a recap:
Wilson is incredible. When he rushes off the edge, he can be extremely effective. When he settles in at linebacker, there’s some Luke Kuechly to his game. He flies to the ball-carrier like every single snap is the last one of his life. He’s an outstanding athlete, running in the 4.4’s with a 4.21 short shuttle and a 35.5 inch vertical. His pursuit is elite as is his closing speed, he hits like a hammer and his motor never stops. His missed tackle percentage in 2023 (4.7%) was the second lowest among linebackers in college football. He also ranked second in defensive stops (tackles that constitute a ‘failure’ for the offense). He had three interceptions, ranked second for batted passes and he recorded six sacks. His run-stop percentage (16.3%) ranked first.
He’d be ideal to place next to Jordyn Brooks (or someone cheaper) as a roaming playmaker who could quickly establish himself as one of the leagues best.
You tell me what you see from Wilson…
Let me know your thoughts in the comments section (just keep it civil)…
Good mock.. i think it his on most teams realistic needs at position/players
As we all know, teams will throw their wrenches in and affect the top of the board wirh crazy trades or grabbing a different player at the same position..
Concerns of mine for Penix is his durability and technique. He didnt have the bug injury like he has had outside of washington. He didnt get sacked a lot and the hits he took appeared to take affect when facing the better talented teams down the stretch. Im not sure he can handle NFL defenses hits and sacks just yet.
And then his throwing motion makes for a bit inaccurate medium throws. Had a few throws sail which one was picked off in the championship game. Its reminiscent of a vince young to me. It would be interesting if he is taking the time with any QB gurus to work on his throwing motion in preparation to the draft.
If josh allen could improve his throwing ability and utilize his arm strength better, so should penix..
We’ll see
1) I like the trade down. Feels almost inevitable.
2) I’m torn on the Penix pick. It will be a pretty good QB situation if you decide to keep Geno. I’m pretty concerned with Abe Lucas’ knee. I think when it comes to overall talent — I think one of the OTs are better. I think Cooper DeJean as safety is better.
3) Payton Wilson is one of my favorite players to watch in the whole draft. I had a similar “holy crap” reaction when I watched Devon Witherspoon last season. The instincts and hustle are lacking on this defense. You get a pillar for the defense in the 2nd round? That would be great! I just hope he doesn’t shoot up draft boards and he can stay healthy.
4) There are some options in the 4th round for OLine and DLine so going QB first is not going to prevent the team from beefing up. But then again…they also picked 2 each from both sides of the ball last season.
They traded their 4th to GB in this mock.
Damn…
Is Penix really worth the first round selection then? I think I rather just build up the team and take another crack next season at QB. Penix has more arm talent but realistically is he an upgrade over Geno in 2023? Is the upside worth it? I don’t know. I understand the pick though. If JS feels a way about Penix then I’ll accept it.
I think I would still trade down but take the best OT left. Or take Cooper DeJean, Jer’Zhan Newton, Byron Murphy if they are still there.
Just me but I dint see Penix beyond age and cost any upgrade from Geno. Different talents a lot if the same issues in college.
Rob is crushing it but I’d like Penix more with an addendum on Free agent and later round olinemen upgrades.
Damn you are spoiling us this week all while being on vacation.
Trading back and getting a quarterback AND Payton Wilson? Hell yes.
Having them miss out on Rattler and getting Penix instead? I see that as a decision that the team will regret. I might be higher on Rattler than anyone else, but to me he’s ready to come right in and take off, nowhere near the red flags of any other draftable qb in a while (maturity issues are gone for me). And also as much physical as anyone else as well.
I’ve got to prepare myself to not be getting my way and to realize how the whole team could be getting better. And to think: would I rather have a rookie qb, or no one at all. I want Payton Wilons no matter what though. There is your defensive leader for a decade.
Nice first go, Rob. Gotta say, though….
As much as I LOVE the idea of Payton Wilson on the Hawks, I hate the idea of Penix on the Hawks. I think I’d rather roll the dice on Pratt in Round 3 or 4 than blow a first round pick on a 23 yo, twice ACL repaired, long ball reliant QB like Penix. Add in the OL and offensive adjustments that would be required of selecting a lefty QB, this seems more like a Pete reach (though he’d likely have taken Braswell or Brade at #16).
Can’t wait for the Senior Bowl and Combine to arrive so that we can separate the QB wheat from the chaff.
I’d take the trade down if the value is good, but I wouldn’t be a fan of rolling the dice on the health of both of these players. Especially Penix, he has the talent but Michigan shows what his NFL future will be like unless he has a top 5 oline. Payton has tons of promise but his injuries also scare me, I’d rather go for players with less of an injury history.
Good point about BOTH of them.
I feel better on Payton since he’s been fine for a few years. I’m worried that Penix’s injuries won’t give him a long career. And that he is injury prone, that o-line was just too good at Washington.
I’m honestly surprised you had the Seahawks picking a Penix in late round 1, but the logic is sound. I have the same questions, and I’m a huge Huskies homer.
However, as the posters have also posted, I am wondering if Rattler is the better pick later (unless he rockets up the board), and a guard would be a better pick with how deep the O-Line class is this year, especially if the Seahawks trade down.
Rattler was gone at #20
Shoot, I missed that, that’s my bad.
Trading down to miss out on a better quarterback to settle for an inferior one seems old school Schneider. The kinda mistakes they used to make, rather than sticking with their draft board. Of course this is all assuming they’d rate Rattler over Penix. If they do, this would be a big mistake. You shouldn’t be getting cute when it comes to selecting the most important position in football. If they do rate Penix higher, and pick up a second, this would be the way to go though.
Payton Wilson would immediately upgrade LB- assuming the medicals check out.
Personally would love to see him paired with Cedric Gray. I think that would be ultradynamic.
Penix in the first would be very frustrating. I met Penix when he was at IU, his likeability is off the charts, he’s who Russell Wilson wishes he was. I don’t think he is a NFL starter, I see him as a round 3 backup, fringe starter with potential for more.
Side note: Verse to Cards and DeJean to 9ers would be a swift kick to the nuts. Verse is so talented, and DeJean is a better version of Kyle Hamilton.
Bonus point: if the picks fell this way there would be some interesting DLine help at the top of R3.
I didn’t look that deeply. Dejean to the 9er’s would make me sick…. Why do they need another uber-weapon from Iowa?
Right? I think he is top 15.
We will see.
Also I was targeting All in R4, speaking of injury risks.
I would love All in the 4th. Just like everyone (except for Fant), he blocks and can catch.
And I’m tired of seeing the top tight ends today: Hockenson, Kelce, LaPorta, Kittle. Take out Kelce and there is a trend. Never understood why Seattle shied away from any of them from Iowa in the draft.
And curiously brought one in from Iowa in a trade.
The only one that CAN’T block at all is the one they have gotten….
Fant’s been pretty much what I thought he would be.
AND in this mock Rob has the Cards getting Odunze early 1st and Van Pran in the 2nd. 🙁
Rob is clearly trolling me personally
I’m with you on Penix. Way too many concerns on every front but his arm strength really. He’s old, his health/toughness is a concern, he’s played on a team with a superior o-line and weapons in a weak conference, as you said has some mechanical issues that may need real reworking in the NFL and lastly to me he seems mentally fragile, what happens if he starts and gets best to heck physically and plays terribly and looks bad all around – I could see him as the type that never really recovers…
I find the age knock on Penix to be really peculiar. Yeah, he’s 23, but look at the other QBs declaring this year who are also 23:
Jayden Daniels
Bo Nix
Spencer Rattler
Jordan Travis
Taulia Tagovailoa
Joe Milton
Austin Reeves
Among others.
With NIL, stars are staying in school longer, getting paid to improve their draft stock
Brian Thomas over Jacob Cowing? I mean even I love me some Cowing but I just don’t see it. Thomas was so explosive in the Redzone. What, 9 TD’s?! Plus AD Mitchell had 7 RDZ TD’s, and he’s 6’4!
I know a lot can change before the draft, but I just don’t see that on tape.
🤷♂️
I like the trade down scenario, however. I would like it a lot better if Rattler was selected as the QB over Penix. So, using the same trade and picks received, a mock with Rd-1 Rattler and Rd-2 Wilson, I would like that a whole lot.
Wilson looks insane! that’s Fred Warner type athleticism. We would have to circle back to find some interior OL in the following few picks. Luckily, the class is deep in OT than can convert to OG.
Penix checks the QB boxes Schneider likes for big hands, arm strength… He’s not as mobile as a Mahomes, Allen, Wilson but I would not say he’s a statue. In an ideal world, we can wait to round 3 for Rattler/Penix.
I liked Wilson’s seeming ability to understand the play, diagnose what was happening, patrol the middle… cerebral as well as that incredible closing speed.
With all due respect to Warner but Wilson’s athleticism is another gear. PW chased a RB down DK Metcalf style and hitting over 23 MPH while doing so.
I’ve seen clips of him starting on one side of the play and running a ball carrier down to the opposite slide line while limiting said ball carrier to 3-4 rushing yards.
Dude is an alien.
1) Alien
2) Freak
3) Football player
I would be concerned if that’s how it went down. Not with respect to Wilson. I’m fine with that pick. But I think the difference between Rattler and Penix is considerable. Not in terms of raw talent. But in terms of being able to make plays beyond the scheme. When coverage is tight and protection breaks down. Unless you build a superior OL in front of him, I worry about Penix’s ability to succeed, or have consistency succeeding. I’m not opposed to a superior OL. It’d be nice. But with limited draft capita and cap space, where’s it coming from Add in the change to a left handed QB, turning Cross into what exactly? A finesse strong side OT?
Since Rattler is gone in this mock, and I don’t see another prospect worthy of that pick, I’d advocate one more trade down. I think there’s more value from two picks in R2 than one pick in late R1. You’d have to package two of the three R3 picks to move back up but you’d still have a R3 pick.
I listened to a podcast this morning featuring Jim Nagy and he also highlighted Tyler Guyton as his top tackle candidate, highlighting his agility. Interesting take versus the initial consensus boards out there that have Olu Fashanu as the undisputed premier OT. Anxious for the draft already, this will be a fun offseason!
I think Guyton has one of the biggest upsides in the whole draft. Dude is a dancing bear at the OT position. His feet are so smooth.
It feels like to me the trade back is reactionary to having spent their native R2 pick. I assume they don’t make this trade if they still have theirs, and they can still land Wilson. So, I think you’ve shown us what is probably likely and even necessary in order to secure more talent.
Like others I’m conflicted by the Penix selection. Yes, he has a nice arm, but does he have good decision making, and even average escapability and mobility? Let alone trying to dissect the long injury history.
Been looking forward to this! I won’t comment on the picks, as so much is likely to change in the months ahead, and I haven’t done enough homework yet. Just want to say thank you. This first mock and the horizontal board tend to really be jumping off points on who to look at for me.
I appreciate that you do your own (exhaustive) work and form your own conclusions. Not just in the draft, but as it relates to our team overall. When so many so-called journalists in the ‘media’ are copy/pasting a dozen tweets and calling it an article, it’s nice to have some thought-provoking, well reasoned content to spend my limited time digesting.
I very much hope that you and your wife are enjoying your getaway.
I don’t hate it. I’m not doing cartwheels either, but I might be if there were a way to make the selections Rattler and Wilson. That’s beyond my pay (and awareness) grades on how to figure out, but I’d sure like to see it.
Rob: You have Schneider taking Penix in the first round. Let’s say both Rattler/Penix are both on the board. Who do you think Schneider would take?
Also from reading all your comments on Rattler. I get the feeling you prefer Rattler over Penix.
Lance Zierlein seems to think Nix is going much higher than people expect, saying he’ll go in the top 10 (on twitter).
I’d be surprised to see both Rattler and Penix go before him, and Penix in the first at all.
I have also watched all but a few of Nix’s games for Oregon and I don’t get the hype
Not going to lie, I don’t even see a second round player with Nix. Rattler and even Penix are quite a bit beyond him.
He can (and probably will) go higher than he should, but I keep thinking Christian Ponder with him.
Like the trade. Would rather have Rattler, but if it’s between just Rattler at #16 or Penix and Wilson? No brainer, give me the next Russ/Bobby.
Curious as to why you don’t have Kamren Kinchens in the first two rounds? If the Hawks could get him at #76 with Penix/Wilson !!!!!
I see a stud in KK.
We’ve got to seriously be considering multiple linemen around then.
Hard pass on penix he’s overrated
Very interesting mock. Makes a good deal of sense.
My only sticking point is if Rattkers a riser for any reason ( and should be,) it’s Mcvay for me. His play translates all the world to me as a future Mcvay passer. And they need one moving forward.
That sounds about right. It is always surprising how early the quarterbacks go. It is possible the New England, Atlanta, Minnesota, Denver and New Orleans consider taking one in the first round.
If the Seahawks want a specific guy they will likely need to be aggresive. I like the value in the trade down and would prefer restocking and taking a QB next year to selecting Penix.
Put me down for a Hard Penix Pass.
All the teams you listed plus if they weren’t the jets they should do it.
What’s 41 year old rodgers going to realistically do against Allen, Lamar, burrow possible, a reinvigorated Herbert, and of course Mahomes?
Most likely nothing. Based on his time as the nfc’s premier passer for going on a decade before he switched divisions.
Also if McVay gets rattler whether we trade down or don’t I’m going be sick to my stomach.
Yeah. Btw. I get why Rob is doing this because there are some reasons to it….penix…. but if you don’t have that oline and coaching ( that he had for forever) I have some big doubts on him.
Rob, I like this. I’d prefer to get Rattle however possible. Question: is there any way to trade a current roster player to a) move up and/or get a 2nd round pick? We need one.
Ugh. To me Penix is to QBs in this draft what Dan Quinn is to HC hires. I’d try to talk myself into it but I’d be really bummed going into the season.
This feels like a draft where they either go QB or OL with their first pick. It’s a tough decision without a QBOTF while also needing to invest significant resources in the trenches. Payton Wilson is a beast. If Macdonald becomes the HC, he would maximize Wilson’s versatility.
I’m not sure I’d know what to do with myself if the Seahawks finally got another linebacker who can cover.
In this scenario I hope that there are real OL and DL difference makers available in R3 and R4. Penix needs a good OL in front of him. Any QB wants a good OL. We don’t know what our defense will be, but it will likely benefit from DL upgrades, obviously.
More on Ben Johnson to Washington.
https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2024/01/26/ben-johnson-washington-commanders-nfl-head-coach/72370360007/
What a crushing disappointment if it happens
If I were John — fly over to Detroit on Monday, don’t take no for an answer about a meeting. If you can even do this. Make him an offer he can’t refuse.
I’m bored of watching defensive fronted football, while Shanahan and McVay clock up successful season after successful season
It seems to me that JS is deliberate about his decisions and will risk the train leaving the station before he arrives. Thoroughness matters,
Rapoport talking like Ben Johnson isn’t even in consideration for Seattle at this point, like it’s all perhaps about Quinn:
https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1750942069256790244
In fairness he did a spot on KJR earlier and sounded like he had no idea what was happening in Seattle
Spouts nonsense while talking like he knows it all. It’s a neat little trick.
That clip was more about the Commanders opening than anything else.
Like Rob said, he was on with Furness earlier today and said Schneider is enjoying the process.
I get feeling he is just fine waiting it out and then picking his candidate. Schneider could be sitting back and all of a sudden hire Bobby Slowick or Mike LaFleur out of no where, even though they haven’t been mentioned much or at all in the interview process.
Pennix is probably on the LV Raiders radar – next coming of Kenny Stabler? Left handed, down the field, gunslinger. Really interesting mock. Very offensive heavy (QB/OL/WR). Good time to bring on an offensive minded head coach. Thanks Rob – this week has been a daily treasure trove of content!
The Raiders and Steelers were so cool back then.
https://x.com/RichEisenShow/status/1751027529585250401?s=20
Pelissero says Washington not in compliance with Rooney Rule yet, will meet with Detroit guys Tuesday.
Also pushes back on the Quinn to Seattle is a lock thinking. Says JS and the team are loving the process and are hearing all kinds of theories and ideas about the league.
Kinda puts some cold water on Vrabel to Seattle too.
A lot of the conversations around Mike Macdonald are so lazy
There are serious positives to his candidacy and there are also other things to consider in counter to his candidacy
Plus he didn’t slow down or shut down Shanahan or McVay in 2023 as many are suggesting
The way he’s being portrayed on Seahawks Twitter reminds me of a QB like Malik Willis having a big throw on a pro day in swim shorts. Nobody has watched his tape or knows much of anything about him. But you better believe they are going to tweet endlessly about him and then kick off if the team doesn’t bring him in
Kind of bored of this
Purdy was also out vrs the Ravens wasn’t he?
Perfectly understandable, I’ll admit I’ve been on the Macdonald bandwagon and reading your articles has tempered my expectations. I feel like the coaching cycle has been a rollercoaster, I’ve gone from loving to hating candidates on a daily basis 😂. There are absolutely valid concerns with Macdonald, but if he’s hired I will talk myself into it and trust that John really thinks he’s the man for the job. Same applies to Johnson, Slowik, and Vrabel.
Macdonald has a lot of positives. You wouldn’t know it though because most of the stuff on him has been people just tweeting they want him, and/or referencing false takes on how his defense played McShanahan and/or refusing to acknowledge the significance of the Ravens structure and decision making or the presence of Lamar on the roster
People aren’t stating a case, it’s akin to a High School crush
I feel your original comment. It’s like if fans say his name 3x he’ll magically appear with the ravens roster.
Jeff simmons tweet plus Corbin did a pod talking a bit about “the next big thing, ” coordinator/coaches.
https://www.threads.net/@adamschefter/post/C2lTB69Jqol/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==
Michigan names Moore as Harbaugh’s successor. McDonald is officially in play, should one of the offensive guys not be John’s preferred candidate.
John should make it his priority to land an offensive guy.
Who is going to be MM’s OC? Of the names being talked about for OC vacancies at the moment, who do people think is actually appealing?
I’m not even sure Kafka is all that good for the role if that’s their plan
To be clear, not advocating for Macdonald. The rumor that he may hold out for or had been favored for the Michigan job existed. This news shows that story no longer holds water.
I’d prefer Johnson, as well. Not going to hold my breath, as WSH has much more going for it at the moment.
One of the things that stuck out for me about Penix in the Championship Game was his poor footwork after the snap. He was laissez-faire with his drop and didn’t get back there quick enough on multiple occasions. I know that no college qb is perfect, especially beyond the top 3, but he didn’t feel as athletic, movement-wise, as a qb needs to be in the modern NFL.
Did I read this correctly, but does Jayden Daniels have more TDs beyond 20 yards than Bo Nix has total completions beyond 20 yards? I’ve looked at all the final mock drafts in 2022 and all of them had Malik Willis in the top 20 in some capacity since it was assumed “some team will fall in love with his ability.”
Basically, these experts don’t know what the heck they’re talking about.
That is correct. I know it’s the offense, but I always felt like they hid Nix a bit by dinking and dunking.
Hard, hard pass.
If there was any interest at all in Penix, I would think that Frank Smith would be on the 2nd Interview list. First hand knowledge of what moving to a lefty takes, the pitfalls, the little things that make big differences, so on.
Good football coaches will figure it out obviously. And there’s more than 1 way to gather that knowledge. Just something that popped into mind.
Long post about Macdonald….or…..
“What is a raven?”
I looked from 2003 to present day. In that time the Ravens defensive points allowed rank has had only four seasons that were not top ten.
14 times the Ravens defense has been top five in points allowed.
Since Lamar Jackson was drafted only one time was the defense not top five in points allowed. Two things happened in that year. Coach Mike went to Michigan -and- Lamar did not play a full season.
Macdonald most likely is very good as a coordinator.
But when Rob is talking about “what does it mean to be a Raven,” for two decades part of that is having a top tier defense for years and years regardless of coach. This timeline has two different head coaches and a few DC’s.
Would love to see them come away with Wilson, great player and a big need especially in our division.
I don’t think a trade with Green Bay works for those picks though I do agree John will try to trade down somehow out of 16. Green Bay has always come out on the better on trades for picks with John and I don’t see them being on the end of giving up a second rounder and getting a fourth back to even it up and there really isn’t another way for us to trade with them that works. I just hope if John does trade that we do end up with a better pick like the second you opine otherwise I’d just as soon he stay and pick for better talent.
I am of the camp that you hope a Rattler or Penix falls farther than you expected and you pull a DK type trade to move up into the second to take a shot at a possible developmental QB and get a much better player picking for positional value aligned with your board in the first round. Then clear players/contracts/cap constraints and take your lumps for a season next year and trade up a shorter distance to hopefully get your QB of the future with a high pick.
The trade with GB is a perfect points match per the trade chart. Win win all round
I’ve mentioned this before, but I’m a bit sus on Schneider and QBs. Think he’s developed a weirdly risk-averse streak about drafting them, easy not to lose if you’re never in the game. I don’t know if it’s a conscious decision to preserve his reputation as a QB guy, or if he’s eternally waiting for the perfect player at perfect position, but it doesn’t really matter what the motivation is.
Wouldn’t love the Penix pick, can’t deny what he’s done but also feels like the sort of player who’s going to need a lot put around him structurally to succeed. Maybe he’ll get that and turn into a flamethrower, but, from an organisation that’s done a pretty ordinary job of coaching and team building over the last decade, it feels like a more uphill journey.
If we actually are drafting a QB, and he’s available, Rattler is my kind of guy.
I’m not a fan of Penix. He’s had too many injuries and struggles under duress. But, I could see Penix if we hired Slowik. Those two would seem like a fit.
I like the Hawks trading down and landing:
* T’Vondre Sweat DT
*Peyton Wilson LB
*Zac Zinter G
If Rattler or Penix drop to round 2, adjust and go get one.
This I can deal with if it’s Penix but I’m just not thinking JS is Pete and wants someone actually dual threat but strong arm IF needed.
Didn’t Zinter break his fibula and tibia in November? That’s a pretty serious injury
He seems to think he will be ready potentially for rookie mini camps.
Apparently at the end of December he was up walking around.
Good job putting all this together Rob. Hope you have a good vacation.
Under this scenario I would rather stand pat at #16 to get Spencer Rattler.
While I like Penix, I agree with other posters that he needs good protection. The offensive line isn’t there yet.
Of course it’s tempting to get a second round pick, but I don’t think it makes up for getting the Quarterback you want. If they aren’t going QB right away, then the trade back makes more sense to me. They could make that linebacker and linemen. Or another receiver and a center/guard. Lots of choices.
Please be you JS and get an actual QB like Rattler or just please build your lines. Don’t you see Detroit and San Francisco? They are very good but Baltimore or Kansas City will destroy both given they both have elite quarterbacks.
I don’t like forcing QB. Teams do this often and usually regret it. Yes, it’s the supreme position in all of sports and therefore reaching is excused, but not when the trenches are still in disrepair. To your credit, you traded down and then selected a QB but priority should be adding more size, skill and grit to the offensive and defensive lines. Fortunately this is a great draft to address those needs.
Still need a quarterback. Good luck finding 5 good linemen all under contract at the same time and then getting a talented qb.
No matter what qb is a top priority. Otherwise you aren’t winning a Super Bowl.
Josh Allen says hold on a darn second……….
Not everyone great is going to get a ring. Would Buffalo even be in the mix is they had a lesser qb?
Because of the mahomes effect there’s a chance that all the big guns in the AFC retirexwithout a ring. But they still need a great qb to get there.
This wouldn’t be forcing a QB
Great mock, and great trade idea.
Regarding Penix… I feel, he is pretty maxxed out and has no first round market. Same goes for Rattler and Nix. Those old guys look good when they play the young guys’ game. But the NFL will quickly devour them, relegate them to backup and spit them out.
I’m not prepared to spend a scarce first round pick on another huge question mark with abysmal results. We had too many of them.
It would also pose major questions barely a season after snuffing on Will Levis. Wasn’t drafting for top talent, in our case a nickel and a slot receiver, while snuffing on a QB despite a need already the changing of course? Or was it only a temporary step away from the getting-cute era? The fact that we cannot answer this question easily is a problem.
I wonder if both Johnson and Slowik will point to this insane state of indecision this franchise lives in. It’s a genuine question I would ask.
IMO, if we stand true to the principles laid out in the last two drafts, we have two choices:
1) Bolstering the trenches best player available in this draft, playing Geno on a below market premium 31m contract, taking a chance on a guy like McCarthy in round 3 with possibly surprising results (guy has an arm, precision and is still only 21), keeping the powder dry waiting for Quinn Ewers in 2025
2) Staging a coup to get an elite QBotF this season, with Jayden Daniels being the target.
The arm and the success gives him a potential R1 market, even if my grade is lower
For you saying Rattler, Nix, and Penix being old, they are the same age as Jayden Daniel’s.
And you could argue that the undersized cornerback and the OSU receiver coming from an injury and a year that he kind of took off himself were also huge question marks.
And I would bet money on McCarthy leading to abysmal results. Hasn’t shown anything to be in this conversation. The other guys all outclass him fairly easily.
LOL.
Here’s a possible Twitter/X conversation for you if you want, Rob…
These are the same “experts” who have Penix McCarthy Nix and May rated higher because of the hype. Steve Smith SR was right when he said they’re all lazy at scouting.
But Lance is not lazy, that’s the point.
I’m not getting involved
I love Lance’s work
But I disagree every year with him on QB’s (and that’s fine)
Cool. I wasn’t suggesting a Twitter fight or anything like that anyways, but fair enough. He can read your blog if he wants to know your opinion. 😉
Hey, the pro scouts and GMs employed by teams disagree every year as well, as we see each draft. That’s just the way it is with scouting.
Rob, with the way people are talking about Rattler is doesn’t sound like he’s projected to go in the 1st round. Sure maybe that will change with a really good senior bowl performance, combine, and pro day.
You think Penix is a QB Schneider would draft?
I could definitely see them trading back to get a 2nd rd pick back. (Thank you Pete for that)
I do
We already knew this, but feels like progress anyways as we continue to wait.
People still asking a lot of QB questions, I feel like they have been covered very well on this site. Someone needs to put a link together that lists them all out.
I’m not feeling the 2024 draft class. Maybe the senior bowl will change that. I’ve got a long thesis about why I don’t want a 1st round QB this year and would prefer to target QB in the 1st in 2025. (Which is opposite of everything I usually say)
I see 4 QB (only) with starter potential (Williams, Daniels, Rattler, Penix in that order) and the remainder of the class is backup – sure maybe they are a Brady or Purdy type – pick them after r4 type. People don’t agree, some team will pick Maye in r1, some team will overdraft McCarthy, these things happen.
Williams is going to the Bears.
Daniels is probably going to the Commies (but their blogs seem to posit that Johnson is coming there, in part, because of Howell, and Harrison is the pick at 2). Regardless, Daniels if going top 10.
The thing about Rattler and Penix is I’m not sure enough about either of them to feel they are R1 QBs (R2, R3 respectively). They can both change this during the process for me.
QB comparisons can be sloppy, but are a useful tool for getting an idea of who the prospect you’re watching really is.
Mine currently.
Caleb = Mahomes
Daniels = no real comparison Jackson, RG3, Dak, may capture 50%.
Rattler = mini Mahomes
Penix = left handed Geno Smith (Tua comp is lazy)
—
The backups getting buzz Maye/Bradford, Nix/Rosen, JJ/PurdyZachWilson,
—
I won’t be getting on people saying we should wait in QB this year. If Daniels is within striking distance- grab him. If Rattler/Penix improve their stock during the process, grab them, otherwise – take them in the appropriate round and draw from a fat pool.
For your perusement:
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/tuesday-quarterback-notes-daniels-travis-leonard-more
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/what-im-thinking-about-the-2024-quarterback-class
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/a-thought-on-15-different-draft-eligible-quarterbacks
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/the-seahawks-need-to-draft-a-quarterback-in-2024
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/will-the-seahawks-trade-up-for-a-quarterback-in-2024
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/yes-the-seahawks-still-need-to-draft-a-quarterback
And there are many more, you can use the sites search feature to find articles on specific QBs (Penix).
In this scenario are you suspecting/hoping a trade for a future first?
Geno has proven he’s 9-8 qb. With the 7th seed as a thing that puts you anywhere between 15-22 in the first round.
Is 2025 the year we make a big move for qb?
I have not watched many USC games. I have watched countless highlight reels. On Wiiliams I see a guy with a better arm than I would imagine from his size but….I see a TON of stuff that does not translate to the pros. Everyone now does cross body throws or the ‘wilson-esque’ tuck and spin.
To me neither is a predictor of success. One thing that I see is he holds in to the ball forever waiting for a splashy moment. I see a lot of instances when you are not playing the pac-12 where guys with pro level closing speed are going to kill him.
It’s a bit odd where one qb is a mahomes comp and the other a mini mahomes comp. I assume (?) You mean in ability and not size. Williams and Rattler are listed at the same size. I actually think Rattler is his listed size and Williams will be 6′ and 1/2″ ( or less) and if I had to predict will be 15 pounds lighter than his listed weight of 217.
A trade for a future one would be ideal, but not necessary, the bench of QBs is deep enough in 2025 that there should be a quality name available throughout the Round.
I was referring to the imperfect Mahomes comp – not the size of the player – but that you have to squint to see it. He also has some elements of Baler Mayfield, and a couple others.
Daniels is interesting to me, because he presents a unique opportunity
Daniels is the one I’d probably most like them to move in in round one.
I know this isn’t news and lots of people called it at the time of the trade. But man, this team could really use that number 47 pick they traded away. Just such a pick gap and that pick would have been such a great spot to add a tough contributing player at DL, OL or LB. So many holes, not enough draft/cap to fill properly this offseason (without being real smart and a bit lucky).
Like they could have made that same GB trade and gotten two solid prospects at 47 and 58. Would be really nice to grab a round 2 OL. Again, not productive thinking. But I will continue to be sad about the lack of 2nd round pick all off-season.
It really changes how JS is going to need to trade down/trade up to manipulate what he has.
It is crying over spilled milk, but if Leonard Williams walks in free agency, this will have been a total disaster of a trade. Especially when you consider the Montez Sweat and Chase Young deals. Williams should have cost us no more than one of our two 2024 3rd rounders but being cash strapped and out of salary cap tricks forced an overpay in draft capital.
The way this year’s draft class is looking, that 2nd round pick is even more valuable than usual.
I think many fans will be relieved when Seattle resigns LW; however, if he signs elsewhere that trade will have been a complete waste of picks. Resigning LW is another high priority for JS this offseason.
Folks aren’t joking when they say this is a primetime moment for JS to show the football world what he’s about.
I try to see it as giving Pete every opportunity to win before firing him. From that light, I can accept it. But it definitely stings.
Maybe the way our cap is this year, John will try to play the compensatory pick game and get something from losing LW.
Whoops this was meant as reply to previous post
Perhaps, but to me it seems more likely the new coach is going to want to bring in a bunch of new guys that fit the style he is looking for, which would mean no comp picks.
EXOS here in Pensacola reminding us there are only four more weeks to go until the combine.
https://www.instagram.com/p/C2kop1ovmAW/
Actually, now that I took a second look at it. This video is from their Texas facility.
I don’t watch college football, but based on what I read, I’m not a fan of Penix nor that pick too much. I’d rather stay put and pick Rattler. But if JS rates QBs close or rates Penix relatively high then the trade is awesome especially with the bonus in R2 (Wilson). While the Hawks pushed a ton of resources into LB+S, we need better play in both positions. So either an upgrade in FA (that doesn’t break the bank) or in the draft is a must imo.
I’d like to see the Seahawks trade down in the first, get the best center in the draft, and Rattler.
I haven’t seen much of Payton Wilson, but his coverage reminds me of Kam Chancellor. Not the big hits of Kam, but how both men would go for a pass break up, but still be ready to tackle if the receiver still gets the ball. They go for the splashy play, but are so strong in their assignments that they can still make the tackle if the receiver somehow is able to get the ball.
Wilson slides and moves like a classic linebacker, yet he’s able to combine that with studly coverage skills reminiscent of Chancellor.
Go Hawks.