The Seahawks need Geno Smith to be great or, sadly, the opposite, in 2023
I have a slight concern about Geno Smith this season.
I’m not worried about him playing badly. I think he’s shown he’s a talented player who deserves to lead the offense. He also has a fantastic set of weapons to throw to, a running game loaded with talent and he’ll play behind an offensive line rich in upside.
The chances are he’ll thrive and this will all be a moot point.
My concern isn’t that Smith will perform poorly in 2023. What troubles me, only slightly I might add, is the consequence of a season where he’s only ‘decent’. Average, or just above average.
Per the terms of his contract, Smith has a $31.2m cap hit in 2024.
He’ll also get an extra $2m every time he ticks off the following incentives:
Passing Yards — 4,282
Passing Touchdowns — 30
Completion percentage — 69.8%
Passer Rating — 100.9
Wins — 9
It means he can earn as much as $41.2m in 2024 based on how he performs this year.
If Smith plays very well and collects all of those incentives in the process, fantastic. There will be no discussion, no questions, it’ll be business as usual.
Equally if he struggles, it won’t be too hard to move on. There’s a strong ‘out’ in the deal where the Seahawks can save $22.5m if they need to move on.
It’ll be a dilemma, however, if Smith is somewhere in-between the two outcomes.
What if he’s only OK?
The incentives above are very achievable even if Smith doesn’t play that brilliantly. Nine wins? Even the 2010 Seahawks won seven games. Smith’s thirty passing touchdowns were fourth most in the NFL last season but that same tally would’ve ranked only 10th in 2021 and 11th in 2020. It’s not a daunting task in the modern game.
It won’t take much for $31.2m to become $35.2m.
On top of that, as noted a few days ago, Smith had great fortune last year with turnovers. Only 48% of his turnover-worthy plays actually resulted in an interception when a typical average is approximately 81%. He would’ve had 25 interceptions last year if his numbers aligned to the league average. Even if he’d had a still well below average 65% conversion rate he would’ve led the league in turnovers.
If, in 2023, he simply experiences a more typical turnover-conversion rate — it’s perfectly reasonable to think he could match his statistics from last season in terms of touchdowns, wins, passing yards and maybe even completion percentage to hit some of his accelerators — while also having a much higher number of turnovers.
That’s when $35-40m starts to look quite expensive.
This is why things could become tricky. You could end up in a situation where in back-to-back years Smith actually produces some attractive numbers. Yet if he has more typical luck when it comes to turnovers, it becomes a bigger question mark over his suitability as a player who can lead this team to where it ultimately wants to get to.
Adding to the dilemma is Seattle’s cap situation in 2024. Currently, according to Over the Cap, they only have $975,664 in effective cap space for next year after pushing some of Jamal Adams’ salary into 2024.
They can easily create $5.9m by cutting Bryan Mone (an inevitability) but there aren’t many other levers to pull. Cutting Quandre Diggs would save $11m but comes with a $10m dead cap hit after re-working his deal. Cutting Adams would only save $6m and comes with a $21m dead cap hit now. They can save $4m by parting with Will Dissly — not a massive amount. Cutting Nick Bellore saves $1.7m. That’s pretty much it.
Two of these cuts can be post-June 1st to shift some of the dead money into 2025 — yet it’s worth noting that Seattle has the fourth lowest amount of projected available cap for 2025. Things are tight now and in the near future.
Essentially at the moment they have no capacity to do anything in free agency next year, they can’t afford a 2024 draft class, they have no money to extend free agents like Bobby Wagner, Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Damien Lewis, Jordyn Brooks, Phil Haynes, Colby Parkinson and several others.
They are not in a good position with the cap. They’ll need to create money. Difficult decisions are going to need to be made.
This is why a $40m quarterback needs to actually be worth $40m, even if that’s the perceived market value for the position these days. Every dollar and cent is precious to the Seahawks at the moment.
This is why clarity for 2024 would be ideal.
The absolutely best case scenario is a glorious season for Smith, confirming his place as a top-passer. The Seahawks have given him every opportunity to make that happen. He will lead a loaded offense — easily one of the most talent-rich in the league. He has an assortment of fantastic weapons to throw to, talented running backs ready to provide a productive ground-game and a young O-line with upside for days.
Few quarterbacks in the league have a supporting cast like this. An outstanding job has been done to create such a potent looking arsenal.
If Smith excels in a big way, he’ll simply be viewed as an essential keep and they’ll need to find money in other ways.
If that doesn’t happen though, this team isn’t in a position to pay $31-41m for ‘so-so’ at any position.
I’m sure people will suggest they could negotiate with Smith to lower his cap hit or re-work his deal. That’s possible. I’m not sure how likely it is though, given how hesitant they’ve been to arrange a pay-cut with Jamal Adams. Until yesterday he was the highest paid player on the team in 2023 despite the fact he’s barely played in two years and it’s unclear when he’ll return or how he’ll perform when he’s back on the field.
Assuming a negotiation with Smith is viable might be optimistic, although it is certainly plausible.
Maybe they’ve accounted for that already? A possible willingness to be flexible? I actually think Smith might be receptive. Yet this is a team, per Curtis Allen in the tweet below, that has arguably not managed its cap very well in recent years:
PSA: The #seahawks now have $57million cap dollars invested in the safety position for 2024. $58million if you include Coby Bryant. 22.8% of their total cap. Just saying.
— Curtis Allen (@curtis93969) September 7, 2023
$57-58m on the safety position is obscene when you have a thin looking defensive line yet this is how they’ve managed their defensive spend. It’s hard to feel that optimistic about how they’ll handle the coming financial challenges.
I’m not bringing this up to be negative right before the start of the season. I think the Seahawks will win well on Sunday against the Rams and I think there’s a lot to be excited about in Seattle.
I also think Smith’s contract is something worth raising before the season begins. We could really do with knowing by the end of the year whether Smith is fully deserving of a $40m deal or whether the team has to move on, save money and look for a cheaper alternative.
A season where Smith is only average instead of good or bad could create a headache-inducing dilemma not easily solved by a couple of Paracetemol.
We discussed this topic (and many other topics) on our Seahawks season preview stream yesterday. Check it out below:
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Since the Seahawks are stuck paying Jamal Adams a lot of money, could they extend the contract for several years so as to to just have a small cap hit.
Kind of like the Bobby Bonilla contact where he gets $1 million dollars per year from the Mets decades after he retired.
Could the Seahawks just pay Adams $1 Million per year until like 2080 when Russell Wilson’s great granddaughter is the Seahawks starting QB?
At this rate it kind of feels like we’ll be paying Adams until 2080
I’m sure Decker will kill that replicant.
Blade Runner 2080- “A 137 year old Harrison Ford returns as the infamous Replicant hunter. Harrison swears that this will be his last action movie, but nobody believes him.”
Where is Roy Baty?
https://x.com/rapsheet/status/1699933980240298275?s=46&t=jJY5PzfRfqxlTnRLJklz5g
Walker with a groin issue. What is it about RB health with this coaching staff?
Hope Walker isn’t going to be a player where there’s always ‘something’
Gods help us if Deejay Dallas is taking the lion’s share of snaps this year. Really need Zach to be ready as 1B.
Walker man….sigh
I’m still hopeful that this isn’t a lingering issue and that Walker continues being the bellcow back for the Hawks.
But if he does end up missing games, I’ll be shocked if Dallas is next in line. They spent a second round pick on Charbonnet for a reason and he’s the perfect backup to step in and be the 3 down back until Walker can return.
Like Rashaad Penny?
Someone needs to tell Jared Goff that the Ryan Gosling look is a little weird after the Barbie movie.
Haha! My friends at our local sports bar were saying the same thing…that he looked like a less smart Ryan Gosling.
If Jamyr Gibbs wasn’t tackled by the turf on that play it would have been an easy touchdown.
That Detroit OL and run game are going to be scary. Week #2 we will find out a lot about the Hawks defense and run defense in particular.
Yep
Agree. Their O looks very good
…and just like that big errors on consecutive plays.
Cost them a sure 3
Neither of those errors was on Goff.
Goff looks like a more athletic Geno.
Mahomes has gotta be from another planet. That throw between 2 defenders on 3rd and 17 was other worldly.
That was incredible. Geno can’t do that, sadly. But there’s never been anything like Mahomes, to be fair.
Trent McDuffie having a big game being a physical tackling machine at cornerback.
Missed six weeks with a hamstring injury last year.
One can only hope.
I know some scouts thought there was little difference between Aidan Hutchinson and George Karlaftis, and that was a great play there by George, but…
Now that they are on the same field at the same time, I think it’s obvious Hutchinson brings more to the table.
Brian Branch to the house!!!
Does anybody else notice it looks like the chiefs tackles are so far back they almost look like there lined up in the backfield more so the right tackle then the left
Yep. The announcers even said that to be considered on the line, the helmet has to line up with the center’s waist. Assuming that is true – and I would assume it is – then it is stunning that the refs were not calling it. Between that and the RT leaving pretty close to early on every pass play snap I don’t know what they were looking at.
https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/status/1700213985117876247
Note to self: David Montgomery led the NFL in broken tackles a couple years back.
Boy does KC miss Chris Jones. He’s making money tonight.
Boy does KC miss Chris Jones. He’s making money tonight.
Boy does KC miss Chris Jones. He’s making money tonight.
The 49ers look smart now for extending Bosa before first game.
Note to Hurtt and Carroll: what cha said ^^^
I wonder if we couldn’t get from Drew Lock what we’re getting from Geno. Unless he convinces us otherwise this year, I would let him go. Another tough bullet to bite might be Tyler Lockett. We save about 17 mil with a post-June cut. Also, spotrac says the dead hit for Diggs would only be 4 mil, so I would totally look into that.
Game’s not over yet, but the Lions are looking good today.
I don’t think Spotrac has updated his numbers since he restructured his deal to free up cap space this year. They still have his 2023 cap hit at $18.1M, while Over The Cap has it as $11,937,500. I believe the latter is correct, and his dead cap charge next year would be $10,262,500.
I think you’re right.
Lockett: what are the parameters of considering a cut to Lockett? He’s averaged 1000 yards and 9 tds for five straight years.
If he does that again can’t see the benefit of cutting him.
Agree, Peter! As long as Lockett keeps producing, $10 or $11 million a year for an effective productive receiver is a good deal!
I would only consider cutting him with a huge drop in production, or equivalent production from a rookie with a much lower salary – JSN.
The STRENGTH of the Detroit Lions is their offensive line. The Lions LOVE to run the football. The Lions have massive beef along their OL. The Lions have some big nasty dudes on their OL. Guess who the next opponent is for the Detroit Lions? Yes you guessed it. The next opponent for the Lions will be the Seahawks. The Seahawks run defense will be severely tested. If not shredded.
While the Lions get a few more days of rest, thankfully we get a few more days to look at the tape. That tape shows us how to keep a high-powered offense from (completely) running all over us without an elite defensive “nose” tackle like Chris Jones.
Aiden Hutchinson’s half-time adjustments in the scheme?
Say it ain’t so Joe?
We got six edge 3-4 guys and a hole at the Pillar of Hercules position. But, this tape from the Chiefs suggests that it is not hopeless, even without Chris Jones.
Patrick Mahomes is everything-everywhere-all-at-once. But even his Jedi ability to control space and time cannot overcome three drops from Toney.
We should immediately trade Eskridge for him after the broadcast showed the grudge list that Amon-Ra wrote down of receivers who were drafted before him.
If Geno puts up decent numbers, but not spectacular, could he be traded? If we could get a late first or early second, and we could unload his salary, opening up additional draft capital, I’d be down. Not sure how realistic that is, though, or if another team would value Geno as much as Seattle.
805 ” If Geno puts up decent numbers, but not spectacular, could he be traded? If we could get a late first or early second, and we could unload his salary, opening up additional draft capital, I’d be down. Not sure how realistic that is, though, or if another team would value Geno as much as Seattle.”
805 Hawk: Their are two chances of the above statement happening. 1)Slim 2)None: And none just went out the window.
As I said, I’m not sure how realistic that is. A guy can dream, though, can’t he? Throwing out scenarios (even wild ones) for discussion is kinda part of the fun, right?
I meant. SLIM went out the window.
BTW: Mariners beat Tampa Bay 1-0.
I would feel a lot better if we just one of Al Woods or Shelby Harris still on the roster, bummer!
One thing not many people are talking about is the potential for Q Diggs to return to form this year. He was decent last year, but left some plays on the field. If he can tick up level of play just a little bit that would be huge.
Lions have 3 extra days rest before playing us. I’d say our only advantage would be that they’re going to be the toast of the NFL/media for beating KC and that might make them less than focused. Then I remember who their Head Coach is. Ain’t gonna happen.
I like your thoughts.
Old Dan Campbell I think will have them firing like the revenge game it is.
Plus while tons of media have Seattle pegged to a better season most still have the Lions, our doppelganger, as a try hard in the North. I still see pundits saying Green Bay who has shown nothing with Love as that division winner.
I fully understand what you’re getting at with this concern, Rob. I can easily see how it could become an issue. Personally, however, I feel pretty good with JS managing the QB contract situation. It just feels to me that he (and PC) are pretty good at knowing their QB values and keeping a finger on the pulse of QBs in the draft and free agency.
Ross I’m just joking a bit here…but John and Pete managing contracts immediately sets up:
Three safeties walk into a bar and the barkeep says “what will it be?”
To which they reply “22+% of the cap space.”
I specifically mentioned the “QB contract” because I think different positional groups are probably managed differently
That is effing brilliant! I am absolutely stealing this one.
Both funny and clean. The rare double whammy.
We have a 32 year old journeyman quarterback with one good half of a season and a kid that has never beaten another quarterback out, is 26, his own qb coach didn’t want him when he left, and a horrible Broncos team didn’t want him.
We’ve drafted 2 quarterbacks in 11 years, and one was a 7th round pick. Their backups have been guys with no threat of starting.
Geno can get expensive fast and Lock is on a 1-year deal.
I think the position has been woefully neglected. It’s almost a black eye for Pete and John. They have pretty much lucked into their past and current situations, with this year and upcoming offseason really showing where they are at.
Lucked into is how I am with it. Great situation to be in. Most teams as we can all see struggle to find one qb let alone give a back up tons of years to get good.
Extremely fortunate that prior to finding Geno when the other qb was getting killed, both by his own doing AND by the teams incompetence by treating the oline like a joke, he never missed time.
I don’t see it that way at all. I don’t know how to properly quote, but…
“We have a 32 year old journeyman quarterback with one good half of a season and a kid that has never beaten another quarterback out, is 26, his own qb coach didn’t want him when he left, and a horrible Broncos team didn’t want him.”
– Geno was a success story last season. We’ll see how he does in ’23 but most people would rank our current starting QB in the top half of the league. As for Lock, most teams’ backup QBs are not starting QBs. Again, for a backup, I think Seattle is in better shape than most.
“We’ve drafted 2 quarterbacks in 11 years, and one was a 7th round pick. Their backups have been guys with no threat of starting.”
– JS has addressed this already. They wish they had drafted QBs over the years, but with RW’s durability and our relative weak pick position, it hasn’t worked out. I don’t disagree that the lack of drafting QBs is a concern, but Seattle is in a much different position now so I don’t think the last 10 years applies anymore.
“I think the position has been woefully neglected. It’s almost a black eye for Pete and John. They have pretty much lucked into their past and current situations, with this year and upcoming offseason really showing where they are at.”
– There are other areas that can be seen as a black eye for PC/JS, but QB isn’t one of them IMO. It’s entirely unfair and disingenuous to attribute their great to good QB situation over the past 10 years to ‘luck’. They drafted and developed RW. They acquired Geno and developed him. They acquired Lock and, while the jury is still out on him, he’s a backup. As Rob has mentioned in the past, and I agree, I think they did not expect Geno to be as good as he was in ’22 and had planned on a QB in the ’23 draft. Geno played pretty well and plans changed. I think JS is ready to draft a QB in ’24 regardless of Geno’s performance this year.
Still a bit of luck for me. They did indeed develop Geno. It’s a bit fortuitous that the whole league looked at him for years and said “nah, we’re good,” so he and the team got the chance to develop. While the retreads played musical teams every year, the darnolds, McCoy’s, etc, no one gave a thought about him.
Then in a weird bit of furtinate business when anyone could have rolled out the brinks truck for Geno’s mostly great season again the league said “we’re good.” And Geno signs an all timer of a team friendly deal.
Just so I’m clear. Yes they developed him. Yes, I believe there was some luck involved.
Per the other qb….feels like history will show they didn’t really develop him. He came into the league waaay better than most all rookies ever and both parties played backyard football til he couldn’t and the team was finally found out.
I mean, there is some luck involved with every team that wins. Draft choices working out, player health, etc. IOW, i don’t think PC/JS were more lucky than other winning teams. Also, wrt Geno, it’s literally part of the job of a good GM to uncover guys who they believe in when other teams don’t.
All true. And the last part is especially true. It’s cool they were able to do it at the most important position. We’re going around the may pole here:
1. Great gm acumen. Patience. Development.
True.
2. I can’t recall the last or in fact any other player they kept around for 3 years who then turned into a probowler at their position with almost zero games under their belt. Sort of feels lucky if you can do it at QB but can’t replicate that at any other position. Even the DB whisperer has he ever stashed and developed a cb for multiple seasons then unleashed a top performer?
I can’t think of any either, but i attribute that to RW and his performance and durability (and the fact that there’s only 1 starting QB on a team.)
My take it coming off harder than I wanted it to. For me, I don’t give them that much credit with the qb situation over the years. They did ride Russ until he broke and were lucky that it took so long, but there was never any back up plan.
With the drafting, almost every other team drafted at least 4 qb’s in the time period I mentioned, even the Packers and Pats. Some teams are just more apt to do that either way.
Geno was a success story, but we don’t know to what extent. He’s fully tapped out in what he can be talentwise, it’s down to what he can do leading the offense. He’s perfectly fine and good for this year, maybe next year.
Lock is most likely the best backup in the league and there is some intrigue there. But I want a competition with him in the future, nothing handed to him. To me, he still needs to prove everything and hasn’t done anything worth while in his career. Not that he still can’t turn it around.
They were smart with Russ, I’ll give them credit for taking that chance and his career being what it was. Other than that Russ, is my problem. I don’t know how much they did with Geno. I feel that he was just “close to Russ skillwise” which led to him being comfortable in the offense and with the team. He’s still been fine and I am expecting him to lead the team well this year.
To me, there should have always been another route when they decided to go with Geno. I’m pretty sure that they were going to take a quarterback last year no matter what, they just all went RIGHT before we picked.
I agree with you, I think John is biting at the bit to finally draft HIS guy. Sounds like that’s his draft focus.
So I will back track on my harshness. Russ was a revelation, Geno was comfortable for them and it’s paid off, Lock is a capable backup. To me, the future of the position is still the biggest need of the team.
With regard to JS drafting his guy at QB, this early in the season it’s important to remember that it really a moving target-we don’t know where the Hawks will end up in the draft order and we don’t know which college QB’s will improve their draft stock. Of course, it’s possible that they already have someone in mind who, they believe, will most likely be thought of as a reach by the rest of the league.
It seems to me though that their best draft classes come when they don’t try to be too tricky.
Great call here Rob- it gets interesting when you look at the 2024 cap hits for all QBs- it’s not an unreasonable number compared to other QBs. Stinks that the Hawks have put themselves in the position to not be able to pay a competent QB a market salary.
This was kind of my thought. I’d be fine overpaying a bit for an average qb. 50 + million in safties is unacceptable. If 40 of that is freed up no one is near as concerned about what the team spends on the most important position in sports.
Agree with this. Totally get Rob’s thoughts. Maybe it’s just that qbs get paid I’d be more comfortable paying Geno than what’s going on with the other side.
I get it. Should you pay near great qb money for not quite great qb play? No. I get I’m just used to it.
Rob you are spot on to consider this scenario with Geno and so should have the Hawks. That is why IMO they should have drafted a QB and had him understudy this year to protect us from entering QB mediocrity and purgatory.
For as great a GM Schneider is, the Hawks have managed the cap TERRIBLY for years.
I feel like the general consensus is missing the boat big time on the KC loss last night. Absolutely Travis Kelce might have made the difference. Yes, dropped passes were bad. Sure.
But Chris Jones was huge.
Jared Goff had time to throw. He was sacked once. The KC pressure stats haven’t been published but I’d wager they are not extraordinary.
David Montgomery only got tackled behind the LOS once.
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/single/all/team/2023/week/david-montgomery/MON487374
We all know the Detroit OL is very good. They controlled the LOS with Chris Jones not in and it was a huge difference in the game.
Fair point, but Detroit did not have a particularly strong day on offense even with Jones out:
Scored 14 points on offense
5/15 on third downs; 1/3 on fourth downs
3.5 yards per carry rushing
Even without Kelce, Chiefs probably win by 10 or more if Toney just doesn’t have all the drops.
#72 The right guard. Was consistently getting to the second and third level with his blocks.
Just in case anyone sees this and thinks it’s real. It’s not.
It is a brilliant photoshop job.
https://twitter.com/NFLonBread/status/1700178062573216122
Breadman strikes again!
Rob. Small thanks. I know folks think your takes can be gloomy. But I think they are reasoned.
Been listening to a bit of hawks brain talking heads this week. Lots of positivity. And there generally should be.
But sometimes…damn….I just tried listening to a podcast that thinks the offense can be 20% better. While awesome if that happened that would mean:
Seattle would have more total yards than KC last year and 80 plus more points putting them #1 in total yards and #2 in points scored. Mind blown. Again cool as heck if that happened, realistically that might be too big a serving of “hope-ium.”
This is the same thing as people saying ‘we were 10-7 last year but if you flip a couple missed field goals, if our star player wasn’t hurt and that one running back didn’t fumble we’d have been 13-4!! OMG SUPER BOWL THIS YEAR! HERE WE COME!’
Yup. Every bad bounce and break will break our way this year. Guaranteed, book it.
I feel this. I think the team is absolutely trending up. Though I still think there’s a lot to see still.
I think often how in 2012 they finished the regular season on a five game win streak including three maulings.
11-5, to me, feels a bit higher of a jump off point than 9-8 and some sleight of hand to get into the playoffs.
10-7 and a playoff win feels about right this year. People say tge NFC is wide open. Seems it’s about as open as last year. When we look back and see how it actually shook out.
Agree with you 100%. Feels like a tough schedule this year with Phila, @Cinci, @Dallas, and @Detroit, not to mention Pitt, @Balt. I think/hope Purdy will be exposed a little bit but SF is good enough to be a threat regardless.
I’m at 9-8 but I’m Hardy Har Har to everyone else’s Lippy the Lion so no surprise
(If you get that reference, you are either old, a 60s cartoon aficionado or both)
Lippy’s perfect cause he was always scheming and that’s how some of these folks are with their calculations.
This would be insufferable. Broncos radio seems much more grounded in reality and mostly critical even of success, despite regularly having high expectations for the franchise.
The nearsightedness though is what ultimately breaks me in media and fandom. A week ago, no one, and I mean no one believe Colorado Buffaloes would win more than 5 games. A week later, all games sold out and half the radio and fans think they’ve got a good chance to best USC and Utah and play for the Pac12 championship.
That would be the coolest story in football if CO did that. Not very realistic.
Kenny McIntosh and Jamal Adams ruled out for Sunday on the injury report.
Damien Lewis & Devin Witherspoon are questionable. Lewis missing the Ram game would not be ideal.
Bright side, Morris, Taylor, Hall, Walker not on the report. Apparently good to go.
JSN not on the report either. Insane.
Will he be the next to be designated a “remarkable healer” by PC, ala Luke Willson…?
Some can play through injury. Some can’t. Or won’t.
Not good news about Lewis. If they start Olu as Rob has suggested they will, he’ll need help with Donald and Lewis would likely be the best guy for that. Of course Brown would need help too I’m sure.
Lewis would be terribly missed. They might start Olu at C and Evan Brown at G, or Evan Brown at C and Ben Brown at G. Curhan at G seems less likely to me.
Stand down red alert, situation normal.
We’re all fine here now. How are you?
Very good news
Awesome news!
OSU & WSU files suit today to stop the other 10 schools and that jackass Kliavkoff from dissolving the PAC-12 and dividing the assets.
I am rooting for the Beavers and Cougars and hope they get to keep the Pac-12 brand.
Why is kliavkoff a jackass? He just was he one to be given the keys to a burning building. You cant expect miracles when Larry Scott has mismanaged the pac12 for the last decade. After USC left, the writing was on the wall, nothing to do with Kliavkoff. You can literally replace him with the best CEO in the world and he still couldn’t have stopped this.
It is a fair statement that Larry Scott really screwed up, but Kliavkoff had a year before USC and UCLA left.
With four schools remaining – California, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State – Kliavkoff and the Pac-12 issued a statement late on August 4 that its new focus is “securing the best possible future for each of our member universities.”
And now he is siding with the 10 defectors.
To me Scott is by far the most responsible for this but ol’ George has some responsibility as well. So do at least some of the university presidents.
https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2023-08-16/pac-12-collapse-decisions-realignment-ucla-oregon
What of the plan is to move on regardless of geno’s play? He plays well then you move him for picks – he plays poorly you cut him and call it a day.
They clearly didn’t expect to even have him for 2 years at the time of the Russ trade. He’s not winning a superbowl so I’m just eager to get to the next guy that could
Maybe. Are you the first to suggest this? I was think something like this.
I hate to disagree with Rob, but….what he called the best case scenario could use some adjustment/ addition.
“The absolutely best case scenario is a glorious season for Smith, confirming his place as a top-passer. The Seahawks have given him every opportunity to make that happen. He will lead a loaded offense — easily one of the most talent-rich in the league. He has an assortment of fantastic weapons to throw to, talented running backs ready to provide a productive ground-game and a young O-line with upside for days.”
Seahawks, behind Geno, have a great season and win the Superbowl. In the game or two that Geno is out, the backup (likely Drew Lock)plays good enough to give the Seahawks the confidence to promote him to starter next year, but not good enough to create compitition for his services and raise his asking price. Seahawks trade Geno and get a draft pick that helps the Seahawks draft the QB of the future.
Well, he did say “best case scenario”. Also, if we are talking best case scenario, the overpriced safeties both make the pro bowl and both get mentioned in defensive player of the year conversations. The run defense is enough and several stars emerge from the last few drafts and a couple of free agents shine.
Here is a nightmare scenario for you regarding Geno
He starts out hot going 4-0, then Charles Cross has a bad game where Geno gets cracked ribs missing 6 weeks. Drew Locke then goes 2-4 white he is on the mend. The Seahawks are 6-4 and on the bubble in the playoff race. Geno comes back and goes 5-2 in the remaining games. We are an 11-6 wild card team, as the 49ers go 12-5 to win the division.
His bonus targets are as follows:
Passing Yards — 3,250 yards – MISSED
Passing Touchdowns — 25 – MISSED
Completion percentage — 62.1% – MISSED
Passer Rating — 99.5 – MISSED
Wins — 9 -EARNED
He then goes on to win the wild card game at home, then goes on the road and gets blown out by the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles. He has one of the worst games of his career in Philadelphia.
His cap hit is now $34.2 Million Dollars.
This is the kind of scenario I was thinking of when I super-chatted that he would be just disappointing enough to stick around.
I thought that was you when I watched it on YouTube.
That’s kind of my biggest worry: he’ll just be ‘eh or alright, and for Pete that is good enough. They miss out on anything else or any upgrades by settling. Playing it safe. Thinking that they can get by. Not turn dirt into gold but just fool’s gold.
But at the same time the team is 9-2 while he is playing in this scenario. If these are his stats in 11 games minus the much lower completion % than last year, these actually look pretty good. During a 17 game schedule these would translate to:
5,022 yards
38 TD
62.1% comp. %
99.5 PR
If he has 18 turnovers in these 11 games in the process that would extrapolate to 27 turnovers then we have a different conversation, but otherwise I would be pretty pleased with this stat line over 11 games.
I didn’t add turnover because I know this board is reliable and somebody would bring it uo.
up
Less nightmare, more mundane. Geno plays well. But not well enough to force a team to the big one. The examples that come to mind:
Kirk Cousins whom I think many respect his play but wouldn’t be thrilled if he was our QB.
Or more analogous. Much of this blog is pretty indifferent to Jared Goff who ( in stats that matter) was Geno Smith last year. Yes I know Geno was more accurate however the yards, tds, ints were all same enough to be the same player. And I’m not sure any of us here would be that stoked if the team was paying Goff around 36 million or so.
Less than 48 hours to game time. I’m not trying to be too dour. Hope Geno balls and things look good at time of writing. I totally agree with Rob that there’s a chance he earns 36-40 million and the net results won’t move the needle if he hits the incentives.
I 100% bracket Goff and Smith the same.
Both have been given all the weapons to perform at a high level. It’s up to them to do that now.
I think the crucial thing for both is how far they can take their teams.
If Geno barely hits his incentives but is clutch and say gets us the NFC title game we all OK with that?
Very interesting way to reframe it.
In the end that’s the thing that matters most. It’s really not Geno’s fault the team lost to the niners in the playoffs. Unfortunately that’s how football is though. That the qb is considered the player most in control the outcomes.
I’m already on record that I think 10-7 and one playoff win. I think niners, eagles, and cowboys might have overall better rosters. If Geno does that you pretty much have to keep him and pay him. And I think I’m fine with that. His contract is sort of year to year anyway and if that happens Seattle won’t be in position for a top QB without a big mortgage of the future.
If we don’t win the division we don’t get a get a home game in the first round of the playoffs. I think we could beat the North or South champions on the road though.
CFB
Just watched Tayven Jackson in person, maybe the Seahawks should wait for him 😉
Really surprised by the Ill-Kansas score, has anyone been watching? Jalon Daniels putting up numbers against a great defense
Jer’Zhan Newton looked like the ideal Mario Edwards replacement. He’d be a beast on the other side of Cam Young and Dre’mont Jones.
Is trade in horizon?
https://twitter.com/NFLonBread/status/1700178062573216122?t=bLqf1PcYe2WL3mFdS8VOyw&s=19
Definitely. You should totally be getting your hopes up
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/my-geno-smith-related-2023-seahawks-fear#comment-770445
To be honest I’m happy its not true. Giving a big contract and draft capital and hoping he plays well for atleast 5 years is a big risk. We are still suffering from Adams trade.
Jones is holding a Vintage Logo Seahawks hat!!! At least he has good taste in logos.
Many of us are scarred from the Harvin, Graham, Adams ‘hang nail’ club. They were all finesse types that didn’t fit the culture &/or scheme here in Seattle.
I’m not advocating an ‘all in’ on Jones but knowing that he’s (been) an All Pro DT which is second only to QB in terms of short supply AND that happens to be our position of greatest need, it’s damn tempting to visualize a Seahawks roster with him on it.
https://x.com/rapsheet/status/1700509658547462170?s=46&t=jJY5PzfRfqxlTnRLJklz5g
Looks like Matt Corral needs a home again. Worth an add to the practice squad? Ahlers was a fun preseason story but one would think Corral would be a better long-term project.
Two teams have cut Corral. I think he’s probably just not good enough
We haven’t cut him yet.
…and re-signed him.
…and cut him again.
…and resigned him.
…and cut him again.
re-signed
https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1700518364408418392?t=jM-1u2kxJq3ru26oQvynOA&s=19
Why are the Whiners doing all these restructures when they need the cap space for down the road? Seems odd to me. Unless Lynch knows he’s toast if the Whiners don’t win the Super Bowl and he’s sticking it to his replacement…
Chris Jones? Brian Burns? Chase young?
CB or Safety help? OLine help?
It looks like Colorado still has the receipts.
Sheduer Sanders with another highlight reel today.
Rob, is Sheduer Sanders in the Danger Zone?
Dimetime
Best guess? At least in proximity of the highway to the Danger Zone.
So, he’s at the Sleater-Kinney exit?
Is The Ribeye still open?
I imagine Rob etal will have lots of QB updates as the season goes on, and it’s still early days but is Shedeur Sanders, assuming he stays healthy and hot, likely to be seen as a challenge to Caleb W for the number 1 QB come draft time. And if so will Sander’s pops allow him to enter the draft?
I don’t think anyone will challenge Williams for #1 but Sanders looks excellent
I think he might stay in school to play with his dad for another year and be a high pick in 2025
https://www.seahawks.com/news/seahawks-elevate-artie-burns-jon-rhattigan-from-practice-squad-place-kenny-mcint
Rhattigan, we just can’t quit you. 🤦🏽♂️ Where’s Basil of Baker Street when you need him?
Disappointed about McIntosh
Only four games away. As a seventh rounder, I’m not expecting him to amount to much, honestly. Always though his hype was a bit inflated by the Georgia mystique. Wish him well and I’d love to be wrong, obviously.
Tyler Van Dyke is having an excellent game there actually not holding him back at all today
He has looked really good. He has 1st round physical talent and I think with the right coach / team could be a legit nfl QB.
I have read other posters mention John Schneider type quarterbacks, does anyone have a sense what traits a Shane Waldron type quarterback might have. It seems there are several QBs playing NCAAf this year that might be fits for both Shane and John.
Huskies are up 36-3.
They need two points to cover the spread.
Quinn Ewers with a beautiful deep toss for a TD.
Wow what a bomb by Ewers!! Great throw!
Had me yelling at the TV! Man I am happy football is back, so good
I’ve been able to find some games on YouTube
Dipped in and out of Washington/Tulsa, Miami/A&M and UNC/App State
Now watching Alabama vs Texas
Will have a bunch of notes after weekend
#90 Byron Murphy playing well for Texas
Locally, here in Pensacola, there is a bit of a buzz around the University of West Florida Argos, after outscoring their first two opponents 70-6.
Next up is Florida A&M, which should be a good test.
The referee is bleeding!
Quinn Ewers is my lord and savior! Hook ‘em!!!!
Rob: Hypothetical question. Let’s say that Geno Smith’s numbers are fairly similar to last year. And the defensive line is ranked somewhere 15-20. Now fast forward to the 2024 NFL draft. The Seahawks are on the clock. The top two players available on the Seahawk board are a DT and a QB. They both have the same grade. The QB has the arm and the accuracy that Schneider loves. The DT is the missing run stuffing tackle that everyone on this blog wants. Which player would you take? Which player do you think John Schneider would take?
There’s too many hypotheticals to answer that. Sorry.
“There’s too many hypotheticals to answer that. Sorry.”
You are right. Too many hypotheticals. But let take a stab at it. John Schneider probably would take the QB.
Too me it just seems that he has a blind spot when it comes to taking run stuffing DTs the draft. The last time John Schneider actually took a run stuffing DT early in the draft was in 2016 when he took Jarran Reed. Take a look at the Seahawk draft history. In 2017 the Hawks traded down and took Malik McDowell. But he was more of a interior pass rush than a run stuffing DT. Coming out of college McDowell only weighed 280 pounds. Not what you call a run stuffer. 2019 the Hawks took a 6th round flyer on DeMarcus Christmas. It turned out that DeMarcus Christmas was not a very good Christmas present. 2017 the in the 3rd round selected 292 pound Nazair Jones. 2018 the Hawks took a light weight DT name Rasheem Green. You have to go all the way back to 2016 when the Hawks traded up in the 2nd round and took Jarran Reed.
So my thought is that Schneider would take the QB over the run stuffing DT. What is interesting note is that Schneider is feeling the pressure about the lack of talent at the DT position. When Schneider that it is getting harder and harder to find big bodies especially at the DT position you know that he is feeling the pressure.
To be honest in the above hypothetical I would take the QB over the DT. With all that I just said. John Schneider (despite the weakness at DT) and the front office has had a couple of outstanding past two offseasons.
PS: Seahawks need Jarran Reed, Cameron Young and Michael Morris to stay healthy.
You take the QB. If you think the QB checks the boxes, you take him…
Quarterback. Easily. Geno isn’t a long term solution and it’s the most important position in the sport. You don’t win without a top qb.
Honestly, any other choice is not having anywhere the same impact on the team.
You take a safety.
Not just any safety, a box safety
Not just any box safety, one you trade up for then pay them significantly more than what the rookie wage scale says
Good win for Texas (obviously)
But that’s the most mediocre Alabama team we’ve seen in a long time
Yup.
Rob, your assessment of Alabama is absolutely correct. Their QB, while a hell of an an athlete, cannot be trusted to consistently move an offense. The OL is also mediocre as compared to the typical Bama standard. Nevertheless, the final score was probably misleading, as Texas dominated this game. Ewers showed some real moxie, the d-line picked it up in the second half, and the skill weapons were on display. Because I think Fant will not be back, I would be interested in your thoughts on TE JaTavion Sanders. He was a 5-star ATH prospect who most had pegged for an edge role, but ended up going the TE route. Some major blocking (and, frankly, willingness to get nasty) issues were exposed tonight, but what an athlete he is. I remember having the same thoughts about Jermichael Finley at Texas, who managed to be a real dynamo at the NFL level before catastrophic injury set in.
Alabama OL got away with some flagrant holds.
Sure did. Still lost!!! 🤘🤘🤘🤘
Agreed Rob. I think Ewers had a good game and the Texas Defensive front put pressure on Bama. I will also say that is the sloppiest I have seen Alabama play overall in probably the past decade
And this makes me so happy here in Flora-Bama, to see all these ignorant rednecks suffer, in the butthole of the SEC.
Schadenfreude!!!
Bama was much sloppier against Texas last year (14 times penalties or so), they just got bailed out by having Bryce Young and Ewers getting injured.
Sloppy seconds are much better.
Hard to ignore the connection with Ewers and us based off Schneider’s comments and Pete being basically Sark’s mentor
Evers showing up against Bama
Can we stop talking about Maye now?
Caleb Williams show, you know who used to coach at USC…
Answer: many old white dudes
Donte Antonio Williams Says Hi!
The correct answer was Pete Carroll, but I guess race baiting is more fun for you?
Rob, I’m not sure if you will be able to watch Texas Tech vs Oregon on YT to break down Bo Nix. His stat line looks very good (32/44 for 359 yards and 2 TDs), but I see a ton of throws into the flat and Oregon’s skill players pick up a ton of YAC or they are to guys that don’t have a defender within 15 yards of them. On the throws that were contested or when he was under pressure, his footwork and throwing mechanics are way off and the ball would be very inaccurate or almost intercepted. I counted at least 3 drops.
I just don’t see the day 1 or even day 2 hype for this guy. Hope you’re able to watch the game!
Rob is like Chuck Norris. He doesn’t sleep…he waits.
I’m buying a Colorado hat
https://twitter.com/Mamba4lif324/status/1700658592507150445?s=20
too early to jump on the sanders to seattle train or ?
Hawks move up this year in the draft and take Shadeur then bring Deion in the following season to replace Pete when he retires.
This is awesome and inredibly refreshing!