Is it grasping at straws? Maybe.
We’ll take any scrap of hope at this stage.
Jimmy Kempski, a well known Eagles beat-writer for Philly Voice, has written an article discussing four possible trade candidates — including Fletcher Cox.
“It sure feels a lot like the collective nucleus that was kept in place from that Super Bowl run just isn’t going to contend in Philly anymore, and with a troublesome salary cap situation upcoming in 2021, it’s not as if they’re going to be able to add outlook-changing pieces to the mix.
But certainly, individual players on the roster from that Super Bowl run could help other teams.”
According to Overthecap.com, the Eagles will be $70m over the salary cap in 2021 if it reduces to $176m.
That’s staggering.
The fact is teams who drop out of contention before the trade deadline on November 3rd will need to be conscious of their cap situation.
The Eagles aren’t the only team in bother. New Orleans (-$83m), Atlanta (-$37m) and Pittsburgh (-$27m) are all facing a difficult situation. Clearing significant money off the books for next year is going to be necessary for some teams.
If the Saints and Steelers are in contention for the playoffs, they’ll probably push this problem into the off-season. The Eagles and Falcons, however, are 0-2.
The downside is fans are turning in Philly — on the coaches and GM Howie Roseman. They might not survive the flying of a white flag. The team has been stuck in neutral since winning the Super Bowl, benefitting mostly from a lousy NFC East to make the post season but not being good enough to seriously challenge.
With the division looking pretty dreadful again this year, the Eagles are likely to stick around in the playoff hunt again. Between now and the deadline, however, they have to go to San Francisco and Pittsburgh in back-to-back weeks then host the Ravens.
Even if they beat the Bengals this weekend, they could easily start 1-5.
That would surely trigger some forward planning.
I’d never really considered that Fletcher Cox would be available. For years he’s been a formidable interior presence.
Here are his PFF grades as a pass rusher over the last few years:
2020 — 82.7
2019 — 84.8
2018 — 91.8
2017 — 90.9
2016 — 78.9
2015 — 89.0
He’s consistently delivered pressure from inside and has the athleticism and flexibility to play inside/out too.
Cox turns 30 in December so he’s not too old, even if he’s perhaps not at his exceptional best. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility he could deliver three more seasons of quality play.
What would the compensation be?
Here’s Kempski’s suggestion:
“…nobody is giving you a 1st round pick for an almost 30-year-old DT whose production is in a downturn, but maybe a 2 for a team in need of D-line help?”
The Seahawks only have one significant asset left to play with and that’s their 2021 second rounder.
Is it ideal going into a draft next year with zero picks in the first two days? No, it isn’t.
However — we could be witnessing the best season in Russell Wilson’s career. If he really is going to go on and win the MVP in 2020, surely you want to make the most of that?
Strike while the iron is hot. If you’re going to aggressively trade for Jamal Adams, you should be prepared to be equally aggressive to fix the flaw that could prevent you from a deep playoff run.
What are the salary cap ramifications?
The Eagles would be forced to eat $28m in dead money which would be a new NFL record. Usually you wouldn’t entertain that. This is a unique situation though. Remember — the Eagles need to somehow raise $70m. Not having Cox on the books when the 2021 season starts immediately clears $22.4m.
The Seahawks would be able to carry Cox this year and would inherit his base salary and roster bonus for the remainder of his contract. That would mean a cap hit of $16m next year and $17m in 2022.
On paper that doesn’t look too bad. The problem the Seahawks have is that while they have about $25m to play with in 2021, they also don’t have many players contracted beyond the end of this season. Neither do they have much draft stock to fill holes. If you want to retain Chris Carson, Shaquill Griffin or Quinton Dunbar — that’s going to cost you. Then you need to retain or replace the assortment of players on short-term deals.
Jamal Adams shouldn’t be a major problem because his salary is already on the books for next year. You can structure his inevitable extension to kick in from 2022 and it’d be smart to backload it, with the hope the NFL economy stabilises in a few years time.
As we saw with Calais Campbell in Baltimore, you can always re-work a contract to make the numbers fit if needed. So a $16m cap hit in 2021 isn’t obscene and might be workable.
Acquiring Cox would undoubtedly improve Seattle’s D-line and give them the interior specialist they’ve never really had in the Carroll era. It’s not the biggest need — that remains speed off the edge and an ability to win 1v1. The Seahawks are not getting any consistent pressure from their defensive ends and the loss of Bruce Irvin didn’t help the situation.
The phrase ‘beggars can’t be choosers’ applies here though. If Cox ends up being available and there’s nobody out there who can rush from the edge, you probably have to accept the situation and make the move.
When Pete Carroll talked about ‘surprise options’ potentially becoming available on cut-down day, I suspect he had the 2021 salary cap in mind. He and John Schneider will know the problems many teams face — and the relative wealth the Seahawks have in comparison.
That never materialised. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that they’re holding out hope of opportunities coming to the fore in the coming weeks.
They need to do something though. As noted yesterday, the number of snaps taken by Benson Mayowa and Jarran Reed is totally unsustainable. Pete Carroll has revealed today that Mayowa could miss the Dallas game on Sunday.
It’s quite incredible that Alton Robinson wasn’t active against New England to share some of Mayowa’s workload. Instead, Luke Willson was active as the fourth tight end on the roster.
Willson played exactly zero snaps against the Patriots.
Would it not have been wise to give Robinson 10-15 snaps? To give him a taste of things and help Mayowa? To see if he can provide a spark?
How on earth was he inactive and Willson dressed? It’d be understandable if they used their fourth tight end even once but they didn’t. They didn’t even use their top three tight ends much in the game plan.
The decision to pick Willson over Robinson is, frankly, incomprehensible.
It’s also been announced today that Rasheem Green has been placed on injured reserve. He’ll be eligible to return in three weeks but we’re all well aware how serious a ‘stinger’ injury can be by now.
Plus, as we also discussed this week, Seattle’s current defensive performance statistically is seriously threatening to undermine all the positives on offense.
Carroll understands better than anyone that a third of your defensive snaps cannot result in an explosive play and something needs to be done about this.
Check out our new podcast below where I make a (compelling) case for making a trade for Ryan Kerrigan. We also preview the Dallas game and discuss the terrifying advanced stats from weeks one and two.
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