We have another (longer) podcast dropping tomorrow going through a few different Seahawks topics. However, here’s a quick 25-minutes on my recent three-round mock draft with Brandan Schulze…

Seahawks Draft Show: It’s "Mock Draft Monday" as @seahawkerspod and @robstaton talk about how N’Keal Harry’s pre-draft visit could lead him to Seattle as their top pick https://t.co/umcnKTazfY pic.twitter.com/U8pPmkfV8R

— Field Gulls (@FieldGulls) April 8, 2019

It was interesting to see another report on the NFL Network this week discussing the future of Doug Baldwin. There were a few hints at the end of the regular season that he might call it a career. Recently that talk has intensified.

Ian Rapoport mentioned something that was brought up a couple of weeks ago. This is a very different team now. Many of Baldwin’s closest friends have moved on or retired. It’s a new locker room and perhaps, along with the injuries, that is playing into Baldwin’s thinking.

If the Seahawks believe he will retire — wide receiver becomes a much greater need. It was a need anyway because Baldwin isn’t likely to play for another 3-4 years. But if he’s not with the team in 2019 it increases the need to support Tyler Lockett and Russell Wilson with another key weapon in the passing game.

It also makes you wonder if the official-30 visit with Jace Sternberger is any kind of indicator too. He’s currently much more of a receiving tight end than a blocker. Losing Baldwin would be a big deal — in the red zone, on third down, in general play. He won’t be easily replaced by one player. It might take a couple.

I was planning on doing a three-round mock draft anyway but I’m going to use this story to represent the possibility of a bigger need at receiver. I’ll have a few notes on Seattle’s picks below and a seven-round Seahawks projection. I’ve only included trades involving the Seahawks to avoid the mock becoming overly complicated with teams in various rounds switching places.

First round

#1 Arizona — Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma)
#2 San Francisco — Nick Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
#3 New York Jets — Josh Allen (EDGE, Kentucky)
#4 Oakland — Quinnen Williams (DT, Alabama)
#5 Tampa Bay — Devin White (LB, LSU)
#6 New York Giants — Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
#7 Jacksonville — T.J. Hockenson (TE, Iowa)
#8 Detroit — Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
#9 Buffalo — Noah Fant (TE, Iowa)
#10 Denver — Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)
#11 Cincinnati — Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State)
#12 Green Bay — Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
#13 Miami — Jonah Williams (G, Alabama)
#14 Atlanta — Montez Sweat (EDGE, Mississippi State)
#15 Washington — Daniel Jones (QB, Duke)
#16 Carolina — Andre Dillard (T, Washington State)
#17 New York Giants (via CLE) — Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
#18 Minnesota — Jawaan Taylor (T, Florida)
#19 Tennessee — Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
#20 Pittsburgh — Devin Bush (LB, Michigan)
#21 Kansas City (via SEA) — D.K. Metcalf (WR, Ole Miss)
#22 Baltimore — Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)
#23 Houston — Cody Ford (T, Oklahoma)
#24 Oakland (via CHI) — Byron Murphy (CB, Washington)
#25 Philadelphia — Brian Burns (EDGE, Florida State)
#26 Indianapolis — Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State)
#27 Oakland (via DAL) — Greedy Williams (CB, LSU)
#28 LA Chargers — Kaleb McGary (T, Washington)
#29 Arizona (via SEA, KC) — Marquise Brown (WR, Oklahoma)
#30 Green Bay (via NO) — A.J. Brown (WR, Ole Miss)
#31 LA Rams — Jeffery Simmons (DT, Mississippi State)
#32 New England — Will Grier (QB, West Virginia)

Second round

#33 Seattle (via ARI) — N’Keal Harry (WR, Arizona State)
#34 Indianapolis (via NYJ) — Rock Ya-Sin (CB, Temple)
#35 Oakland — Irv Smith Jr (TE, Alabama)
#36 San Francisco — Justin Layne (CB, Michigan State)
#37 New York Giants — Johnathan Abram (S, Mississippi State)
#38 Jacksonville — Josh Jacobs (RB, Alabama)
#39 Tampa Bay — Lonnie Johnson (CB, Kentucky)
#40 Buffalo — Erik McCoy (C, Texas A&M)
#41 Denver — Dawson Knox (TE, Ole Miss)
#42 Cincinnati — Dre’Mont Jones (DT, Ohio State)
#43 Detroit — L.J. Collier (DE, TCU)
#44 Green Bay — Chris Lindstrom (G, Boston College)
#45 Atlanta — Josh Oliver (TE, San Jose State)
#46 Washington — Deebo Samuel (WR, South Carolina)
#47 Carolina — Darnell Savage (S, Maryland)
#48 Miami — Chase Winovich (EDGE, Michigan)
#49 Cleveland — Greg Little (T, Ole Miss)

#50 Minnesota — Jerry Tillery (DT, Notre Dame)
#51 Tennessee — Trysten Hill (DT, UCF)
#52 Pittsburgh — Juan Thornhill (S, Virginia)
#53 Philadelphia (via BAL) — Garrett Bradbury (C, NC State)
#54 Houston (via SEA) — Dru Samia (G, Oklahoma)

#55 Houston — Isaiah Johnson (CB, Houston)
#56 New England (via CHI) — Kahale Warring (TE, San Diego State)
#57 Philadelphia — Marquise Blair (S, Utah)
#58 Dallas — Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (S, Florida)
#59 Indianapolis — Taylor Rapp (S, Washington)
#60 LA Chargers — Bobby Okereke (LB, Stanford)
#61 Kansas City — Deandre Baker (CB, Georgia)
#62 New Orleans — Dalton Risner (T, Kansas State)
#63 Kansas City (via LAR) — Joe Jackson (DE, Miami)
#64 New England — Zach Allen (DE, Boston College)

Third round

#65 Arizona — D’Andre Walker (EDGE, Georgia)
#66 Pittsburgh (via OAK) — Emmanuel Hall (WR, Missouri)
#67 San Francisco — Amani Hooker (S, Iowa)
#68 New York Jets — Elgton Jenkins (C, Mississippi State)
#69 Jacksonville — Jachai Polite (EDGE, Florida)
#70 Tampa Bay — Jaylon Ferguson (EDGE, Louisiana Tech)
#71 New York Giants — forfeited (supplemental draft)

#72 Denver — Deionte Thompson (S, Alabama)
#73 Cincinnati — Mack Wilson (LB, Alabama)
#74 New England (via DET) — 
Christian Miller (EDGE, Alabama)

#75 Buffalo — Hakeem Butler (WR, Iowa State)
#76 Green Bay — Anthony Nelson (DE, Iowa)
#77 Washington — Joejuan Williams (CB, Vanderbilt)
#78 Carolina — Jace Sternberger (TE, Texas A&M)
#79 Miami — Nasir Adderley (S, Delaware)
#80 Atlanta — Tytus Howard (T, Alabama State)
#81 Cleveland — Julian Love (CB, Notre Dame)
#82 Minnesota — J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (WR, Stanford)
#83 Tennessee — Trayvon Mullen (CB, Clemson)
#84 Pittsburgh — Renell Wren (DT, Arizona State)
#85 Seattle — Charles Omenihu (DE, Texas)
#86 Baltimore — Michael Jordan (G, Ohio State)

#87 Houston — Damien Harris (RB, Alabama)
#88 Chicago — Maxx Crosby (DE, Eastern Michigan)
#89 Detroit (via PHI) — Nate Davis (G, Charlotte)
#90 Indianapolis — Khalen Saunders (DT, Western Illinois)
#91 Dallas — Ed Alexander (DT, LSU)
#92 LA Chargers — Drew Sample (TE, Washington)
#93 Seattle (via KC) — Marvell Tell III (S, USC)
#94 New York Jets (via NO) — Miles Boykin (WR, Notre Dame)
#95 LA Rams — Connor McGovern (G, Penn State)
#96 New York Giants (via NE) — Chuma Edoga (T, USC)
#97 Washington — Ben Banogu (EDGE, TCU)
#98 New England — Bobby Evans (T, Oklahoma)
#99 Jacksonville — Riley Ridley (WR, Georgia)
#100 LA Rams — Justice Hill (RB, Oklahoma State)
#101 Carolina — Miles Sanders (RB, Penn State)
#102 New England — Mecole Hardman (WR, Georgia)
#103 Baltimore — Oshane Ximines (EDGE, Old Dominion)

General notes on the draft

— I think this mock represents three likely ‘runs’. Initially we’ll see a run on the top defensive linemen. At the end of the first round and start of the second I think we’ll see a run on receivers. Then we’ll see a run on tight ends.

— Three fits I like are Emmanuel Hall to Pittsburgh (with the pick acquired in the Antonio Brown trade), Christian Miller to New England (as an eventual replacement for Kyle Van Noy) and Kyler Murray to Arizona because he’s the most talented player in the draft by a stretch.

— The Seahawks will want to trade down. They have one big thing working in their favour. Draft position. Being ahead of Baltimore is an advantage. Neither team has a second round pick so both will likely want to move down. By being ahead of the Ravens, the Seahawks are the team you talk to first. Plus, Baltimore has clear, defined and obvious needs at receiver and interior O-line. Whether it’s a center (Erik McCoy or Garrett Bradbury), guard (Cody Ford) or receiver (pick any of about 5-6 options) — teams with similar needs will fear who the Ravens might take.

Notes on the Seahawks

— The first trade down sees Kansas City jumping ahead of the Ravens to take D.K. Metcalf. The Chiefs have an issue to resolve concerning Tyreek Hill. Metcalf’s deep-speed and size would be an ideal match for Patrick Mahomes. According to Tony Pauline the Ravens are very interested in Metcalf. The Chiefs have two second round picks so they might be willing to part with their third rounder. They also own two sixth round picks and might be willing to add one to sweeten the deal. That would give the Seahawks six picks instead of four.

— The second trade down involves the Cardinals. You might argue teams in the same division won’t trade with each other. However, that’s exactly what happened two years ago when the 49ers gave the Seahawks a fourth round pick to move from #31 to #34 so the Niners could select Reuben Foster. If the Cardinals get a chance to reunite Kyler Murray and Marquise Brown they should take it. In this scenario they jump ahead of the Green Bay Packers to make sure it happens, giving the Seahawks a fourth rounder (and seven picks in total):

R2 (#33)
R3 (#85)
R3 (#93)
R4 (#104)
R4 (#125)
R5 (#160)
R6 (#216)

— I was torn on the first pick of N’Keal Harry. The Seahawks have only drafted two receivers who ran slower than a 4.4. One was a seventh round flier (Kenny Lawler) and the other was Chris Harper (a fourth round pick who ran a 4.50). They clearly value quickness and the one big concern I have with Harry is acceleration and suddenness. He’s not going to sprint downfield on a go-route and win with pure speed. That’s something they’ve consistently sought even from their bigger receivers. Harry is more of a possession receiver with surprisingly good YAC ability for his size.

— The reason I paired him with Seattle is for two reasons. One, he’s still a tremendous athlete with a fantastic looking frame. There may be some untapped potential and we know the Seahawks want to develop upside first and foremost with their top pick. Pete Carroll has wanted a dynamic big target for a long time and Harry has the size to fill that role. Two, he has exceptional character and a competitive spirit. Harry is close friends with Washington cornerback Byron Murphy and they’re both very similar personalities. Teams will have zero concern about either players’ will to succeed. Harry had an official-30 visit with the Seahawks recently.

— Having taken a receiver with their first pick it was vital to focus on defense with the two third round selections. It appears the Seahawks want a base-end type to start across from Frank Clark. There are several options. Remember — previously the Seahawks have drafted players with length and excellent short shuttle times. In this class the likes of Zach Allen, Anthony Nelson, John Cominsky, Charles Omenihu and Kingsley Keke fit that profile. I’ve gone with Omenihu here for his rare length (36 inch arms) and his 4.36 short shuttle at 280lbs. That’s a rare combination. N’Keal Harry would be an attempt to fill the void left by Doug Baldwin. Omenihu would be a replacement for Dion Jordan.

— It also appears the Seahawks are very keen to add a hybrid defensive back. Someone capable of playing big nickel, conventional nickel and safety. They’ve already met with Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and arranged official-30 visits with Juan Thornhill and Darnell Savage. They could easily draft this type of player with their first or second pick. They’ll work out the best way to address all their needs, they always do. If they leave this position to round three the options will be fairly thin but Marvell Tell remained on the board here. He has impressive height (6-2) and length (33 1/8 inch arms) and tested exceptionally well in the agility tests (6.63 three cone, 4.01 short shuttle). In the nickel position, short-area quickness and agility is vital. Tell is also high character and only really scratched the surface of his potential at USC.

— This projection doesn’t have the Seahawks taking a quarterback but that still remains a distinct possibility considering the uncertain future of Russell Wilson.

Seven round Seahawks mock

R2 (#33) — N’Keal Harry (WR, Arizona State)
If the Seahawks lose Doug Baldwin they’ll need to consider a high pick at receiver.

R3 (#85) — Charles Omenihu (DE, Texas)
He has the size and length to play base-end and his short shuttle (4.36) will appeal.

R3 (#93) — Marvell Tell (S, USC)
Fantastic agility testing and length makes him an appealing hybrid DB.

R4 (#104) — Armon Watts (DT, Arkansas)
Terrific length and power to anchor vs the run with plus pass-rushing upside.

R4 (#125) — Kaden Smith (TE, Stanford)
One of the few TE’s in this class to run a sub-7.10 three-cone.

R5 (#160) — Greg Gaines (DT, Washington)
The Seahawks are reportedly interested in Gaines.

R6 (#216) — Derrek Thomas (CB, Baylor)
A converted receiver, Thomas looked like a Seahawks corner at the combine.

With the Dallas Cowboys re-signing DeMarcus Lawrence to a five-year, $105 million extension with $65 million guaranteed — the market has been set for Frank Clark.

He has more career sacks than Lawrence (35 vs 34) and he’s younger (27 vs 25). Clark had a more productive year in 2018 with 13 sacks compared to Lawrence’s 10.5. Athletically Clark is a superior talent. There’s no realistic argument for him being awarded a cheaper contract.

So what are the Seahawks going to do?

Lawrence, Khalil Mack and Aaron Donald are the only three defensive players averaging more than $20 million per season. Mack and Donald are game-wreckers and game-winners. Lawrence is a quality pass rusher but doesn’t have the ability to take over a game like Mack and Donald. Neither, currently, does Frank Clark.

The Seahawks have to determine how much potential remains with Clark. He doesn’t turn 26 until June and with an elite physical profile — it’s possible he could become more consistent and more dominant in the coming years. He’s always had the potential to develop into one of the leagues best defensive ends. If that’s his trajectory over the next few seasons — it’d be a real shame to miss out on his prime having spent four years carefully bringing along his talent.

Last season was his first year as the main man. Previously he’d played in a rotation with Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett. Gaining 13 sacks was a nice start for Clark as the focal point of the pass rush.

The other thing to consider is the rapid growth of the salary cap and player salaries. For all the hand-wringing some members of the media do about the CBA — players have never been wealthier. The earning potential has exploded in recent seasons.

$20m a year for Clark today sounds like a kings ransom. But how will it look in two years time when Myles Garrett and Joey Bosa get paid? And when you consider Trey Flowers is on $18m a year, C.J. Mosley $17m a year and Za’Darius Smith $16.5m a year — doesn’t that put a potential Clark contract into context?

While he probably doesn’t warrant a deal similar to Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack — Clark is a better player than Flowers, Mosley and Smith.

For me there are two realistic scenarios here:

1. Pay Clark the going rate and build with a player you’ve already accepted is part of your new core

2. Let him play out the 2018 season on the tag, just as the Cowboys did with Lawrence, and see what the situation is in 12 months time

People will rightly question the first scenario because of the cost. Yet, as noted above, $20m a year might seem like a bargain in two years time if salaries continue to increase and Clark turns into a star.

The second scenario is a gamble because you run the risk of losing Clark in free agency in 2020. That could easily happen. However, the Seahawks seem to want to exhaust all possibilities with their players. They didn’t take the best offer for Earl Thomas and were happy to risk losing him in free agency. They haven’t traded Clark despite knowing it would cost a fortune to keep him long term. I think there’s a realistic chance they’ll run the risk of losing him for nothing more than a third round comp pick next year — simply to give themselves the longest possible window to tie him down.

You can make a compelling case for trading Clark now, getting more than a possible 2021 third round comp pick and being able to draft a rookie to replace him at a team-friendly price.

Sounds great, right?

But what if nobody wants to trade for Clark?

Mike Garafolo said it’d take a high first round pick. Is that what the Seahawks want — or is it what teams are actually willing to pay?

Here’s the thing — the 2019 draft class is loaded with defensive line talent. Why would anyone trade a high pick for Frank Clark to pay him $20m a year with $65-70m guaranteed when you can draft a pass rusher in round one at a fraction of the cost?

It’s not realistic. Not this year.

Perhaps a team in the late first round might consider it? There’s no guarantee though. And if teams are only talking about a second rounder at best — the Seahawks might think they’re better off keeping Clark and trying to extend his contract this summer rather than giving up for just a second rounder.

After all, who thought the offers for Earl Thomas would be so weak a year ago? Their best offer was a third round pick. It’s easy to say ‘trade a player’ — it’s a lot harder to make it happen for a fair deal.

When the Bills were being linked a few weeks ago I proposed a trade that included swapping #21 for #9 and Seattle getting Buffalo’s second rounder (#40). I think that’s about the best you could hope for. You’d have a shot at one of the top rookie defensive linemen and you make up the gaping hole in round two.

Again though — how interested are Buffalo in a deal like that? Especially now you’d have to pay Clark a mega-contract with massive guarantees.

A trade just doesn’t seem likely at this stage — because of the cost of the contract and the talent in the draft. And if that assertion is correct — the Seahawks have to make a call on whether they want to pay the market rate or wait this out.

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Today the Seahawks signed Cassius Marsh (meaning I get the chance to mispronounce his first name again during podcasts) and Nate Orchard.

Seattle’s free agency period has been extremely focused. They’ve protected their comp picks and they were determined to try and keep the O-line together. When they lost J.R. Sweezy to Arizona — a deal that happened surprisingly quickly — they swiftly signed Mike Iupati. Apart from that, it’s been quiet. Modest moves, no big swings and additions — like Marsh and Orchard — who don’t impact their 2020 comp picks.

They have lost starters though. Justin Coleman is the most notable. Shamar Stephen is another along with Dion Jordan. While Jordan wasn’t exactly a force for the Seahawks last season, clearly they were hoping he could provide a dynamic book-end to Frank Clark.

They’re currently meeting with available free agents to see where they can find value and provide a hedge for the draft. Marsh and Orchard won’t necessarily replace any of their lost starters. They’re cheap and can provide competition in camp. They may well make other signings like this.

Ultimately though the moves they haven’t made are telling. No replacement at nickel. No defensive tackle or base-end additions. It means all three are likely draft priorities.

We’ll keep discussing the possibility of drafting other positions too. A quarterback early remains a wildcard because this Russell Wilson contract saga isn’t going anywhere — especially if/when an agreement isn’t reached by April 15th.

However, if they’re satisfied a positive conclusion will come with Wilson or the quarterbacks they like simply aren’t available — this looks like a plan. Prioritise replacing the players you lost at nickel, defensive tackle and defensive end. Increase the depth and competition at other positions (eg TE/WR) and plan ahead.

The nickel position

We talked about Byron Murphy earlier this week. He might be the best defensive back in the draft. He’s certainly the most naturally skilled defensive back. He’s a terrific fit for the nickel given his coverage ability, run defense, tackling, willingness to deliver a blow and short-area quickness. He’s gritty and has the competitive spirit the Seahawks will love.

However, they’ve consistently targeted players with traits with their first pick. That doesn’t mean a SPARQ monster. It simply means a player who either fits a prototype or preference — or has a particularly unique skillset. Malik McDowell had amazing length, power and a unique ability to win with speed and hand-use off the edge then kick inside to play nose tackle and anchor against two blocking linemen. Rashaad Penny had exceptional speed and quickness for his size and an ability to impact the game as a runner, receiver or returner. Germain Ifedi looked like the Hulk with longer arms. Paul Richardson has excellent suddenness and looked a lot like DeSean Jackson.

Nothing particularly stands out in terms of traits or uniqueness about Murphy. He just has a combination of skills — plus a heap of tenacity and skill — that makes him an excellent football player. Whether that translates to the next level remains to be seen. And that’s why traits matter. If you have physical limitations at the next level they will be exploited. If you have an elite athletic profile — good coaches will back themselves to make the talent translate.

I think Murphy will be just fine in the NFL. He’s a quality player. But it’s something to consider as we discuss what the Seahawks might do with their first pick.

It’s interesting that Tony Pauline linked the Seahawks to Juan Thornhill in his new podcast today. It’s already been revealed that he’ll be one of Seattle’s official-30 visits. Like Murphy, he projects to the nickel. Pauline connected the Seahawks to Thornhill as a cornerback (which I take to mean nickel). He was a playmaker last year with six interceptions and he has the outstanding athletic profile they go for. If it’s not Murphy, there’s every chance the Seahawks could target Thornhill to act as a big nickel and a Coleman replacement.

A lot of the big name safeties in college are playing nickel full time or mixing their snaps. It’s the way the game is going. The Seahawks used three-safety looks last season and Justin Coleman played over 60% of the snaps. Finding someone who can act as a corner/safety hybrid in that role seems to be something they’re considering having also met or visited with Darnell Savage and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson as well as Thornhill. Marvell Tell and Amani Hooker are possible options too.

This could all be a big smokescreen of course but Coleman is the one key starter they lost this off-season. Replacing him could be a bigger priority than we initially anticipated.

The defensive end position

Dion Jordan was playing anywhere between 275-285lbs for the Seahawks. It’s a shame he could never stay healthy. There were flashes of ability. Now they need to find a player of a similar size to fill that role.

This draft class is loaded with options in that regard. If they don’t take a nickel defender with their first pick — it could be a five-technique type to bookend Frank Clark.

We know TCU’s brilliant L.J. Collier had an official-30 visit scheduled. He’s 283lbs. His tape was exceptional and his Senior Bowl performance even better. He didn’t test particularly well at the combine in terms of agility (4.78 short shuttle) but he was highly explosive. He also has the drive and gritty backstory they like.

Collier has been a riser since the Senior Bowl and might go too early for them, especially if they prioritise replacing Justin Coleman with their first pick. The great thing about this draft class is the options keep on coming. There’s a reason why John Schneider called it the best D-line draft in his 27 years of scouting. They might use that to their advantage. If they can get a D-line starter in round three — that gives them the opportunity to go nickel with the first pick (or quarterback if they — ahem — need to).

In our combine preview we noted the Seahawks appear to key-in on the short shuttle with defensive linemen. Rasheem Green (4.39), Quinton Jefferson (4.37), Jordan Hill (4.51), Jaye Howard (4.47) and Malik McDowell (4.53) all tested superbly in the short shuttle.

The following players tested very well in the short shuttle and could provide some five-technique potential:

Anthony Nelson (271lbs) — 4.23
Rashan Gary (277lbs) — 4.29
Zach Allen (281lbs) — 4.36
Charles Omenihu (280lbs) — 4.36
Daniel Wise (281lbs) — 4.36
John Cominsky (286lbs) — 4.38
Keke Kingsley (288lbs) — 4.46
Dre’Mont Jones (281lbs) — 4.53

Rashan Gary will likely go in the top-10 but they should have an opportunity to consider the other names. And if they’re not completely tied to the short shuttle as a factor — Joe Jackson at Miami is another name to monitor.

Of course it’s just as possible Rasheem Green at 275lbs is being earmarked for this role. For that reason they might be willing to draft an EDGE instead — which seemingly is the role Cassius Marsh and Nate Orchard are coming in to compete for. Justin Hollins, Ben Banogu, Brian Burns (who I still think might last into round two despite his excellent combine and pro-day), Christian Miller and D’Andre Walker are some of the names they might consider if they do decide to roll with Green as a five-tech type and try to add some speed instead.

That said, Hollins’ tape leaves you wanting so much more. Banogu is more elite athlete than consistent football player at this point. Burns might be long gone. Miller and Walker have both suffered injuries recently that has impacted their ability to test.

The additions of Marsh and Orchard aren’t significant enough to eliminate a position group as a high-pick contender. Yet two similar signings perhaps indicate they are looking for a bigger DE to play across from Frank with a high-ish pick rather than going for the EDGE. And with Collier, Omenihu, Allen, Nelson, Keke and others — they should be able to find someone they like.

The defensive tackle position

Shamar Stephen could be replaced full-time by Poona Ford. Yet the Seahawks are light at defensive tackle and so far haven’t made any additions. It’s likely they’ll draft a defensive tackle — but at what point?

Recently we considered the prospect of UCF’s Tyrsten Hill being a target (possibly with their first pick). Arguably no player had a better drill workout at the combine than Hill. His movement, change of direction, power and work in space was incredibly impressive for a 308lbs defensive tackle. He tested as well as the top defensive tackles in the draft in terms of agility and explosive power.

If you want a top-20 physical profile without spending a top-20 pick — Hill is pretty much the guy to go for.

He won’t go as early as perhaps he should because some teams appear to have reservations about his final year at UCF. He was essentially benched by the new coaching staff as he didn’t see eye-to-eye with them. The best player on defense under Scott Frost — now Hill had been relegated to a rotational role.

It was possibly a bit petty by the coaches. UCF beat Memphis in their Championship game but only after getting into a major deficit with Hill watching from the sidelines. As soon as he was introduced he took over. The Knights won. Hill was the defensive MVP.

The Seahawks have never been put off a challenge and to be fair — Hill seems perfectly personable and intelligent in interviews. Sometimes a face doesn’t fit somewhere but it can excel in another destination. He doesn’t seem like a bad dude — reports say he’s quite opinionated. Seattle’s roster has always carried opinionated players. The fact is Hill is incredibly talented with massive potential and a good coaching staff will see an opportunity here to land a potential star. He’ll probably go in the top-60 if not much higher.

Aside from Hill (who could easily be the sixth defensive tackle off the board in a great class) — Jerry Tillery (who has his own character question marks) also has the traits they seem to like. There are some questions about his fit though — can he play defensive tackle full time? He didn’t rush the edge at Notre Dame and might be pigeon-holed into acting as a full-time 3-4 DE like another former Notre Dame lineman Stephon Tuitt. Dre’Mont Jones was a prolific pass rusher for Ohio State and an impact player. He might be more suited to the inside/out role than full time DT.

If Hill and the rest end up going too early for Seattle — or if they prioritise nickel and defensive end first — it won’t be an issue. This draft is deep at defensive tackle.

Armon Watts is an underrated impact-player with the power to anchor against the run but still offer some pass rush (with a great frame too). It’ll be interesting to see where Renell Wren lands. Tony Pauline noted earlier this week the Seahawks like Greg Gaines. Albert Huggins can play early downs against the run. Khalen Saunders is incredibly raw and needs to be spelled but he flashed on tape and at the Senior Bowl. Daniel Wise was a rocket at Kansas and could be a specialist interior rusher or inside/out type.

They might be willing to wait until round four for a defensive tackle. Even if they do — they should be able to find a good one in this draft.

Of course there are other positions they could target early. Receiver is a possibility. Mike Garofolo reported today that N’Keal Harry will make an official-30 visit to the Seahawks. Quarterback as we’ve discussed. Maybe even tight end. The need at receiver will become even greater if they lose Doug Baldwin. They might want to add a big target anyway.

Here’s the full list of reported official-30 visits so far:

Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)
L.J. Collier (DE, TCU)
Dre Greenlaw (LB, Arkansas)
Darnell Savage (S, Maryland)
Juan Thornhill (S, Virginia)
Darwin Thompson (RB, Utah State)
Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
Jace Sternberger (TE, Texas A&M)
Corrion Ballard (S, Utah)
Derrek Thomas (CB, Baylor)
N’Keal Harry (WR, Arizona State)

It was also reported that the Seahawks met with Chauncey Gardner-Johnson but it’s unclear if this was a VMAC visit.

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It’s all becoming a bit clearer now.

According to Adam Schefter, the Seahawks have known about Russell Wilson’s contract deadline since January. The following report from Ian Rapoport sheds even more light on the situation:

From Up to the Minute Live: #Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has set an April 15 deadline for a new contract and if one doesn't happen… tune in next offseason for the tag and more. pic.twitter.com/MznDJFX79X

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 3, 2019

Throughout this off-season we’ve seen what appears to be a very aggressive approach from the Wilson camp. Revealing to Schefter during Super Bowl week that there hadn’t been any talks. The Giants rumour via Colin Cowherd. Jimmy Fallon, the sage of football, asking Wilson about his contract and the Giants rumour. Now news of the deadline being revealed through the media.

Here’s what I think is going on:

1. The Seahawks have a schedule for talks, they have other priorities currently (the draft) and prefer to wait until later in the year to begin serious negotiations (possibly because they’ll be able to gain some leverage that is not currently available).

2. Wilson and his camp want talks now, they don’t want to work to Seattle’s schedule and they are very willing to play on the franchise tag (thus, this early deadline).

3. Wilson wants to stay in Seattle but he also wants a deal structure that may be prohibitive for the Seahawks moving forward. So compromise is needed between both parties to make this happen — otherwise a potential divorce in the future is possible.

Rapoport’s note spells it out. If no deal is agreed by April 15th talks are over according to Wilson and his representatives. If he sticks to his guns, that means he’ll play out this season and inevitably be franchise tagged in 12 months.

It’s always felt like Wilson would be comfortable with that. Why would anyone be surprised that he’s willing to bet on himself? He wants talks now to get on with things. Receive Seattle’s best offer, make a call and then move on.

But at the end of the day it all comes down to how willing are both parties to compromise? For example — if Wilson wants a fully guaranteed contract and the Seahawks aren’t interested in that — can they find a middle ground?

If they can’t — this saga will drag on into the next off-season. As predicted. As expected.

Wilson won’t be traded before the 2019 draft. But as Rapoport notes — if it gets to next year and he’s tagged, the Seahawks face a big call. A contract extension at that point would be even trickier to negotiate. They might have to trade him in 2020.

So here we go. Can both parties compromise on a deal before April 15th? If not, is Wilson really going to shut down talks this early in the process?

And if they go beyond April 15th without a deal does it increase the chances of the Seahawks looking to draft a quarterback early?

Mike Florio has some interesting info in this video, seemingly given to him from the Wilson camp (he references text exchanges while he’s live on the show). Florio mentions Wilson potentially wanting a salary that is determined by a percentage (eg 25% of whatever the cap is) or at least a deal that accelerates as the quarterback market grows. And if that’s what he wants the future is bleak:

Meanwhile Joel Corry thinks a sticking point is Seattle’s unwillingness to fully guarantee the second year of the contract.

And this video involving Adam Schefter, Chris Mortenson and former Seahawks scout Jim Nagy is very interesting…

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Firstly, if you missed it earlier please check out the piece on Byron Murphy and the Seahawks. It’s not often I post two articles in a day but this felt like a worthy moment.

Bob Condotta at the Seattle Times is reporting the following:

Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has given the team an April 15 deadline to complete negotiations on a new contract, a source with knowledge of the discussions has confirmed.

April 15 is the day the Seahawks will begin their official offseason workout program, and Wilson is thought to want the deal done by then. It’s also thought the two sides have had some negotiations in recent days with Wilson hoping to get the contract done quickly.

We’ve been writing for a few months now that the Wilson contract saga could get ugly, will be frustrating and will dominate the off-season.

This is simply the latest move in a game of chess.

After Mike Garofolo shared some details from the Seahawks perspective last week, it seems this could be the reaction. If the team wants to try and bide their time, wait until the opportune window to negotiate (which would be just before training camp) — this is Wilson’s counter.

He doesn’t want to play to their schedule. He doesn’t want to wait until after the draft to negotiate (when they might draft someone to offer some minor leverage). He wants their best offer now — not in August.

It benefits the Seahawks to set a deadline right before camp. Then the pressure really is on. There’s no wiggle room when training camp starts. You’re in season mode. You get serious with talks and both teams are pressured to compromise with the clock ticking.

If Seattle offers a league-high contract and he says no — it’d create an awkward dynamic in the locker room. It’d only be human nature for some of his team mates to wonder how committed and dedicated he is to them. Turn down the best deal in NFL history because you want even more? While we’re busting our tails on a much lower salary? It’s not a good look. The fans would notice that too.

A hard deadline like that motivates people to compromise. A soft deadline like April 15th is very different. There’s months until training camp. Where’s the pressure here for either party to compromise?

And make no mistake — both sides will have to compromise.

Had the Seahawks set a deadline like this Wilson’s camp likely would’ve brushed it off or flat-out rejected the team making such an aggressive move. Now the Seahawks have to decide how they want to act. They could call Wilson’s bluff and say, ‘talk to us after the draft’. If they do that it’ll be up to Wilson’s camp to decide whether they want to stick to their guns. The game would continue.

It’s hard to imagine either party, in less than two weeks with no immediate pressure other than a Wilson-imposed and non-binding deadline, will find common ground. It’s not impossible. But is it likely? And before anyone says… ‘just pay the man’. No, just don’t say it. It’s never as simple as that.

If they can’t strike a deal before the deadline — what then? The saga continues presumably. As predicted. With both parties battling for scraps of leverage. With a team determined not to cripple itself financially and a player hoping to max-out his earnings.

April 16th will be a fascinating day.

The #Seahawks and Russell Wilson have been talking contract, and Seattle has the future cap flexibility to get a big deal done … but Wilson’s not the only one they want to extend. @nflnetwork @NFLTotalAccess pic.twitter.com/gQe6UNKw3l

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) April 2, 2019

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By now we know the Seahawks generally don’t draft cornerbacks early. Shaquille Griffin (round three) is their earliest pick at the position in the Pete Carroll era. Aside from that the norm is to wait until day three and find their prototypes.

The chances are that will be the case again this year.

Yet a couple of things have just made me pause on that thought…

Last week I was listening to Brock & Salk. Brock Huard does a daily segment called ‘Blue 42’. He answers three football questions on various topics. In this particular edition he was asked by Salk which position might be a target with their first pick. I was expecting a pretty standard answer (eg pass rush). Huard suggested cornerback.

I don’t have the exact quote to hand or a link to the audio but the gist is Huard wondered whether this would be the year they take a corner early. He suggested if there was a really talented player at the position available in the late first round they might feel obliged to pull the trigger.

At the time I found it pretty surprising. Then I read this mock draft by Eric Galko. I’m not sure how connected Galko is to the Seahawks or anyone who would know their thought process — but he paired Seattle with Washington cornerback Byron Murphy with the following blurb:

“Often linked to Murphy by league people, he fits what they need now. Potential surprises would be Delware’s Nasir Adderley or Maryland’s Darnell Savage. They have interest in both.”

So at the very least people ‘in the league’ are talking about the Seahawks and Byron Murphy.

This could all just be a red herring of course. They might just take a pass rusher with the first pick. That’s where the safe money is. Receiver, quarterback and a couple of other positions might be in the running. However — I still want to consider the thought process just in case there is some truth to this.

The Seahawks have essentially lost one key starter since 2018 — Justin Coleman. You could argue Earl Thomas but we all know they’d pretty much moved on from Earl a year ago and played most of the 2018 season without him anyway.

They’ve already replaced J.R. Sweezy. They re-signed K.J. Wright, Mychael Kendricks and D.J. Fluker. They’ll need to replace Shamar Stephen but they can do that in this draft class (John Schneider said on 710 ESPN yesterday he’d not seen a D-line class like this in 27 years).

Coleman is the one quality player they’ve lost.

Pete Carroll stated at the end of last season that he felt they have a competitive roster capable of contending. It just needed a bit more development and competition. If he truly believes that — replacing Coleman and then using the depth at D-line could be a possible plan. Here’s Galko’s line about Murray: “He fits what they need now.”

Even while writing this I have to check myself. They plucked Coleman from the Patriots and turned him into a big-money free agent. They just re-signed Akeem King to try and develop as a replacement (and he’s not the only corner competing for that role currently on the roster). If there’s one position they can draft and develop it’s cornerback.

But what if Huard’s point is crucial here? What if they’re willing to consider replacing Coleman with their first pick if a truly standout cornerback is available?

That’s where Murphy comes in. He’s a quality player. I’ve been a fan of his for a long time and felt he was the most natural defensive back in this draft class. Here’s what I wrote about him in mid-October:

I spent some time watching Washington corner Byron Murphy last week and was wowed by his potential. I just wonder if he’d make a fantastic safety. He’s not the biggest (5-11, 182lbs) but he has that gliding running ability, he’s so quick to the ball. He’s physical and will deliver a jolting hit. Every snap I watched at corner — I kept thinking, ‘I’d love to see him at safety’.

And there was this note from November:

Murphy is undersized at CB but he’s sudden, quick to the ball and extremely physical. I’d love to see if he can convert to free safety.

When you watch Murphy you certainly see the kind of sudden athlete the Seahawks like. He’s incredibly physical despite his lack of size and a real force defending the run. There are some snaps where he competes for the ball and knocks it loose that are very reminiscent of Chris Harris Jr. He made plays on 31% of his targeted throws over two years and recorded seven interceptions and 20 pass-breakups in just 87 career targets.

PFF graded him as a the top cornerback in college football in 2018:

In addition to his top-ranked overall grade, Murphy ranked inside the top-20 in forced incompletion percentage (24.2) and yards allowed per coverage snap (0.66) among the 189 cornerbacks with 50-plus targets in 2018. He also ranked inside the top-20 in passer rating allowed (54.5) and yards allowed per target (5.16) among the same group.

Isolating Murphy’s play to just targets of nine or fewer yards, he led the nation in forced incompletion percentage (26.7), ranked tied for third in yards allowed per reception (5.0) and fourth in yards allowed per target (3.3). He ranked tied for fifth in coverage grade (90.1) when targeted in that area of the field, as well.

Numbers aside, Murphy dominated the short and intermediate areas of the field – both in coverage and when playing the run. He earned an impressive 86.7 run-defense grade and logged eight run stops this past season, an aspect of his game he holds in high regard.

Here’s how PFF compared Murphy in various aspects to the ‘average’ for the 2019 draft class:

He loves to tackle and deliver jarring hits:

This is why I thought he might fit at safety. You don’t want him matching up on the outside against taller, faster cornerbacks. Put him inside in space and let him fly to the ball and tackle and he can be a major factor.

Increasingly we’re seeing safeties switch to the ‘big nickel’ in college and I wonder if that’s Murphy’s role at the next level. If the Seahawks are prioritising replacing Coleman with a dynamic hybrid defender — Murphy fits the bill even if he isn’t their prototype for outside corner.

Then you have to factor in his grit, his maturity, his exceptional character. Murphy has the attitude and the motivation (already a father) to succeed. The Seahawks will likely love his personality and the way he plays the game.

What about his testing? At the Washington pro-day yesterday he reportedly ran a 4.15 short shuttle and a 6.83 three cone. Had he worked out with the other safety/big nickel types at the combine — that would’ve been the fourth quickest three cone (behind only Marvell Tell, Amani Hooker and Taylor Rapp). It would’ve been the eighth fastest short shuttle but he was only marginally slower than Darnell Savage (4.15) and he was quicker than Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (4.20).

For those reasons — I’m inclined to not totally rule out Murphy-to-Seattle with their first pick. They’ll be trading down from #21 and it’s possible he won’t be there when they make a selection. If he is though — he might be a name to keep an eye on.

It also fits in line with some of the other players they’re meeting with. Galko linked Darnell Savage and Nasir Adderley to Seattle. They’re two more physical, tenacious defensive backs who could fit the big nickel position. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson met with the Seahawks and he switched to nickel for the 2018 season. Juan Thornhill is a former cornerback converted to safety and could also be viewed as a big nickel. They’re looking at guys who can play this position.

Murphy is a better player than the names above. He’s a better fit for this specific position. I think people look at the safeties visiting the VMAC and believe they’re looking for an Earl Thomas replacement. We’ve been saying for a few weeks — it’s probably more likely they’re looking for a versatile nickel.

It’s something I hadn’t really considered with their first pick but I’ll be keeping a more open mind going forward. Murphy to Seattle? Or one of these nickel prospects? Possibly. The game’s changing. Justin Coleman played 67.81% of the defensive snaps last year. The Seahawks play nickel in base like everyone else. Finding someone who can fit that role while defending the run and being able to tackle isn’t easy. That’s what Murphy can do. He’s not a burner, he’s not an outside corner. He’s a guy who will fly around and hit you while also having a knack for making big plays.

Their draft history says it’s unlikely but don’t dismiss Murphy being picked first up.

The counter to this? The fact they’ve done absolutely nothing to upgrade the defensive front and have actually lost players (Shamar Stephen, Dion Jordan) from last season. It’s possible they intend to fill out their D-line in the middle rounds but it’s risky. They need more up front. More pass rush, better run defense.

Seahawks interested in Greg Gaines?

According to Tony Pauline they are:

“Gaines has watched his draft stock take off since the Senior Bowl and I’m told the hometown Seattle Seahawks like Gaines and have their eye on him.”

It’s an interesting note from Tony. We’ve been discussing Gaines for a couple of years, dating back to the start of his blossoming partnership with Vita Vea. The two were a great double act. Gaines consistently impacted games — he just lacked the frame and traits to stand out.

The Seahawks in the Carroll era haven’t drafted a defensive lineman with sub-33 inch arms in the first two days. Gaines had 31 1/4 inch arms.

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With less than a month to go to the draft, Brandan Schulze and I got together to record a new podcast. Check it out below…

Thoughts on Ben Banogu

It was a little surprising recently to see Tony Pauline suggest Banogu could be drafted in the #40-60 range. Although he had an outstanding combine, he really isn’t much of an edge rusher at all. He lacks technique or any kind of repertoire. A lot of his best plays are incidental (he makes the right choice, an opponent runs in his direction). There’s barely any evidence of any hand placement, speed-to-power conversion or dynamic speed off the edge.

He looks more like a linebacker convert than a productive defensive end or LEO.

Banogu’s a massive project. He’s the very definition of an athlete rather than a football player. He’ll need time and major work to become a sack artist. With so many other DE’s in this class it’s hard to imagine him going as early as round two.

There is one aspect of his game I want to highlight though…

The Seahawks face the Rams twice a year. Los Angeles runs a bunch of sweeps, end-arounds and misdirection. Seattle’s somewhat conventional defense sometimes struggles to come to terms with this. New England shut down the Rams by playing safeties off the edge in space to try and combat the trickery they use and it worked a treat. We’ll see if teams cotton on to that gameplan in 2019 (and it might be one reason why the Seahawks are meeting with so many safeties — to have the option to play multiple safety looks against these high-powered offensive teams).

Banogu excels when he’s playing off the edge then reading and reacting. He’s exceptionally quick to cover ground, can sprint to the sideline and shut down any stretch plays and sweeps surprisingly well for a man his size. Time and time again you watch him cover one half of the field simply playing off the edge in space. It should be an ideal 1v1 matchup for a smaller running back or receiver against a 250lbs defender. Not against Banogu. He plays with great discipline to let the play develop then quickly reacts and makes a tackle. Not many players can do this.

This is one of the reasons why he might be better off working as a linebacker at the next level or at the very least a SAM/LEO.

You’re not likely going to take him in round two just for this one positive. He’s so raw as a pass rusher — he’d need to show more in that sense to warrant a top-60 grade. He could be a useful weapon vs the Rams however. Especially if you’ve got Banogu on one side and some extra safety help on the other.

Seahawks setting up a D-line draft

Whether it ends up being their first pick or not, the Seahawks are clearly setting up for a heavy D-line draft. That’s no surprise given the class. Yet they’ve been completely inactive in free agency. They’ve lost one player (Shamar Stephen) and shown no sign of wanting to keep another (Dion Jordan). They met with Nick Perry and a couple of defensive tackles. Anyone who signs at this stage isn’t a lock to make the roster.

Considering the pass rush and run defense both need help — we could see as many as three picks spent on the defensive line in this draft. They need a Tony McDaniel type or at least a strong, early down defensive tackle to rotate in and help against the run. Armon Watts at Arkansas has the anchor, length and size to adapt to this role (with some ability to rush the passer too). Albert Huggins is extremely powerful. Those are two examples of possible day-three run-defense targets.

In terms of the pass rush — Trysten Hill is too athletic to last too long and presents an opportunity to get an athlete with as much upside as the top-15 prospects albeit at a cheaper cost (although many regard him now as a sure-fire second rounder). Daniel Wise is a smaller, really disruptive pass rusher who impacts games. He could be brought in as a specialist three-technique. They could roll the dice on Ben Banogu or Justin Hollins’ athletic profile. Or they could spend their first pick on a dynamic inside/out type who can provide a perfect partner across from Frank Clark. There are a cluster of attractive five-technique or inside/out rushers.

Either way — their total lack of D-line additions so far is an enormous nod towards their draft intentions. They’re going to stock up on defensive linemen one way or another.

Why the Seahawks probably won’t trade Frank Clark before the draft

Ever since Jay Glazer tweeted teams were calling about Clark (including the Bills, who later disputed the report), there’s been a lingering thought that he might be dealt. A deal doesn’t seem close at the moment. With four key players out of contract next year (Clark, Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner, Jarran Reed) — something has to give. Losing Clark for a 2021 compensatory pick wouldn’t be good value if he reaches free agency next year and leaves Seattle.

However, I don’t think a trade before the draft is likely. Here’s why…

I don’t believe the Seahawks have any intention of losing any of their ‘big four’. Pete Carroll feels they have a competitive roster and a new core. I suspect they will exhaust all possibilities to keep their key players before even thinking about a trade. They are still a long way off having exhausted anything with Clark.

He has until mid-July to sign his franchise tag or opt to hold out. That is a reasonable deadline for both parties. Seattle can make its best offer just before July 15th and apply some pressure. They can put Clark in a position to choose guaranteed wealth and security vs gambling on reaching the market fully healthy and off the back of a great 2019 season. Faced with a ticking clock, it’s hard to turn down guaranteed cash.

In order to create this environment for a deal, however, they need that July 15th deadline. You might say — why not just set a pre-draft deadline? Clark and his agent would reject it. As far as they’re concerned if the Seahawks trade him, they’ll be trading him to a team willing to give him a massive new contract. So actually this would accelerate the process for Clark and he’d be better off financially to be traded pre-draft. The Seahawks setting an April deadline doesn’t come with any consequences or pressure for Clark.

If the team felt an extension was impossible or highly unlikely he probably would’ve been traded by now. Instead it seems like they’re willing to let this process play out, create a realistic deadline from which all parties can reasonably come together and work towards a deal.

If a trade is going to happen now it’ll probably be heading into camp. If Clark doesn’t sign an extension and refuses to play on the franchise tag, the Seahawks might end up dealing him before the season rather than enduring any drama in camp while facing the prospect of losing him for very little in the way of compensation. However — right now we just don’t know how likely that situation is. My gut feeling is Clark wants to stay in Seattle and if the Seahawks make a fair offer in July — he’ll likely agree terms to remain with the team rather than risk playing on the tag.

As with the Wilson negotiations — patience and time is probably the key factor.

A trade scenario that makes sense

The Seahawks need picks so trading down twice to fill out their board is more likely than not. Here’s a trade scenario I might use for the next seven-round projection.

Note — all trade value data came from this chart.

The Seahawks trade #21 to Kansas City for #29, #93, #167 & #214
The Chiefs seriously need to consider drafting a wide receiver given the recent news on Tyreek Hill. D.K. Metcalf’s sensational forty yard dash and ability to run a great go-route makes him an ideal fit with Patrick Mahomes. Parris Campbell’s 4.31 speed and Marquise Brown’s electricity could also appeal. The Ravens are reportedly after a receiver so Seattle’s pick at #21 could become a target for a team like the Chiefs.

According to the chart the value of pick #21 is 261 trade points. Kansas City’s four picks add up to 256 points:

Seahawks — #21 (261)

Chiefs — #29 (203), #93 (42), #167 (8), #214 (3)

The Seahawks trade #29 to Buffalo for #40, #112 & #131
If the Bills draft an offensive tackle at #9 they’ll be keen not to miss out on the top receivers with their second pick. If the run starts at the end of round one — they’ll need to act. Funnily enough if the Seahawks trade out of #21 to allow another team to draft a wide out, they could kick start the run on the position — making it easier to trade down for a second time. In this scenario the Bills move up for Marquise Brown — jumping ahead of the Green Bay Packers (also in the receiver market).

According to the chart the value of pick #29 is 203 trade points. Buffalo’s three picks add up to 192 points:

Seahawks — #29 (203)

Bills — #40 (149), #112 (26), #131 (17)

In both cases the Seahawks give up some value. They might have to this year with great depth in rounds 2-4 and only a few ‘legit’ first round prospects.

These two trades leave the Seahawks with nine picks. They have to move down 19 places to get from four to nine but that might be an inevitable compromise in order to have a proper draft this year.

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The list of known VMAC visitors is growing. In the last week or so the media has revealed the following players have visited or will visit Seattle for an official-30 visit:

Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)
L.J. Collier (DE, TCU)
Dre Greenlaw (LB, Arkansas)
Darnell Savage (S, Maryland)
Juan Thornhill (S, Virginia)
Darwin Thompson (RB, Utah State)
Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
Corrion Ballard (S, Utah)

Tony Pauline also reported the Seahawks had met with Chauncey Gardner-Johnson but it’s unclear if this was a VMAC visit or a workout/meeting.

A lot of the names aren’t surprising. The likes of Collier, Savage and Thornhill are expected to go in a range Seattle will trade into. They’re always looking for great athletes to take in the later rounds or UDFA and Ballard, Greenlaw and Thompson fit that bill.

Then there’s Rashan Gary.

Despite a lot of negative reports among some Twitter users and bloggers, Gary is a likely top-10 pick.

He was a former #1 recruit in the country and described by some High School scouts as one half of the best D-line duo to enter college football at the same time (along with Dexter Lawrence).

He has an unbelievable physical profile. Think of all the positive press Ed Oliver’s had this week for his pro-day. Rashan Gary is a similar size (277lbs) but he’s faster (4.58), more explosive (tested better in the vertical and they had the same broad jump) and their short shuttle’s are in the same range (4.22 vs 4.29). The difference is Gary doesn’t have short arms or a frame that’s difficult to place in a full-time starting role (nobody’s touting him for a switch to linebacker…).

People talk about his lack of production but schematically he was asked to play a certain role that didn’t involve screaming off the edge as a speed rusher. Even so — our article earlier this week highlighted his pressure percentage was better than pure-speed rusher Ben Banogu’s (15.5%).

Perhaps more impressive than anything though was the way he performed at the combine. Teams had him run the linebacker drills to show off his athleticism. His movement, change-of-direction and agility at 277lbs was unbelievable. He performed better in the drills than most of the 240-250lbs OLB types. Gary looked like a natural working in space (he couldn’t catch a beachball though):

In a loaded class of defensive players, he’s #1 for upside and ceiling. He’s incredibly versatile and can line up as a base-end, he can kick inside, he can play the five technique, you could look at him as a full-time three-technique and he could even work in space on some snaps to rush and contain. He’s a phenomenal talent.

If he had more production — he’d be in the running to be the #1 pick. It’s the only missing piece and again — that was down to scheme more than anything.

Here’s what one of Bob McGinn’s scouting sources said about Gary:

“Looks pretty good to me… Can do a lot of things. Athletic, tough, strong, versatile. Some of that (minimal production) was how he was used schematically. You just have to go by the eyeball test. Just watch the tape. You see everything.”

He won’t be there at #21 and he definitely won’t be there after they’ve traded down. So what gives? How come the Seahawks are meeting with him?

You could have some fun speculating that the Seahawks might be about to acquire a high pick. Mike Garofolo was recently interviewed by Brock Huard. Garofolo said Frank Clark would be worth a high first round pick if the Seahawks decided to trade him. Put two and two together and you’ve got one Michigan defender replacing another albeit at a cheaper cost.

In reality there’s very little to say the Seahawks have any ambition to trade Clark. Pete Carroll said numerous times ‘Frank will be with us’ before he was franchised. Things might’ve changed since but it’s more likely Clark will either sign an extension or play out his final year in Seattle on the franchise tag.

Whether that’s a wise stance to take is up for major debate. Clark has been a consistent producer for Seattle but is yet to turn into the game-wrecker that might warrant a +$20m a year contract. The Seahawks would also be risking losing any meaningful compensation by letting him play on the tag.

However — that’s where the precedent takes us. The Seahawks, under Carroll, have never traded a player in his prime to get optimal value. They’ve consistently tried to keep core players together — even going above and beyond with contract extensions. Is that likely to change now? I’m sceptical — even if you can make a compelling case for a trade this year.

You’ve also got to wonder whether anyone would truly be willing to give up a high first round pick for Clark. It’d probably need to be a top-10 to get Rashan Gary. Even though Clark is only 25 (he turns 26 in June) — it’d be a hefty price to pay given the strength of the draft is defensive line. Dee Ford only gained Kansas City a 2020 second rounder. Clark is a superior player — but is he so much better to warrant a top-10 pick? Probably not.

When Jay Glazer linked the Bills to Clark I thought a fair deal might be swapping #21 for #9 and the Seahawks gaining Buffalo’s second round pick (#40). That gets you into the top-10. But even then — how many big trades like that actually happen in April rather than the first flush of free agency?

So back to Gary’s VMAC visit. What is it likely about?

It’s a boring answer but it’s probably intel for the future. The Seahawks aren’t just planning and preparing for the 2019 draft. They need information on these players for years down the line.

Look at the 2013 class. The Seahawks didn’t even pick in round one because of the Percy Harvin trade. You still need to do your homework on the top prospects because years later they ended up signing or acquiring the following:

Luke Joeckel — #2
Dion Jordan — #3
Barkevious Mingo — #6
D.J. Fluker — #11
Sheldon Richardson — #13
Arthur Brown — #56
Eddie Lacy — #61

If Rashan Gary became available in a few years time — it’d pay to have a dossier of information about him.

Why him over some of the other top prospects? Simple. He’s exactly the type of player the Seahawks love. Former top High School recruit. Extremely good athlete. Ideal length, agility, explosion, speed. Versatile. Fits exactly what they want from a DE who can kick inside. Has shown discipline to work within Michigan’s scheme and get on with the job (important if you’re playing in Seattle’s front seven).

If they get a chance to sign him in the future, they’d probably seriously consider it.

So the VMAC meeting is probably less about a dramatic imminent trade and much more about putting together a complete profile for a player who could be their #1 ranked prospect in the class.

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