Upgrading the defense is the priority going forward
The Seahawks have things to work on with the offense. They’re too inconsistent on third down. They’re 1-5 in one-score games despite chances to win all six in the fourth quarter. They’ve had big turnovers at key moments — the pick-sixes against the Bears and Chargers, plus the fumble yesterday against the Rams.
Really though, these all correctable issues. We’ve seen a Russell Wilson-led Seahawks offense avoid key turnovers, he’s won more games in the fourth quarter than every quarterback other than Matt Stafford and he’s been efficient on third downs.
They can improve. Easily.
We often overlook the positives. Here’s three big ones so far…
1. The Seahawks lead the NFL for rushing yards per game (152.2)
This is a major achievement considering where the running game has been for the last couple of years. Their stated priority of fixing the run has been accomplished.
2. Russell Wilson is on course to throw 37 touchdowns and he has a 110.2 passer rating
Both would be career highs. His current 66% completion percentage would be the second best mark in his career — after his tremendous 2015 season.
3. The offensive line is now a team strength after years of toil and struggle
It’s shaping the identity of the team. The attitude of the five guys up front is setting the tone. They’re thriving in this offense, they love running the ball. They’re producing and they’re punishing opponents.
Imagine how you would’ve reacted in the summer if you knew those three things were going to happen?
These are all big steps forward. As we’ve already acknowledged, there are things to work on. But this is an offense heading in the right direction. However much we want to quibble about 2-minute drills, empty sets and avoidable sacks — Seattle’s offense is producing results.
When they last made the Super Bowl in 2014, they were averaging 24.6 points per game on offense. They’re currently at 24.3.
Here’s the big difference between the two years statistically. Seattle’s defense gave up a league leading 15.9 PPG in 2014. This year they’re giving up 21.3.
It’s worth noting the offensive explosion that we’re witnessing in the NFL currently. The Saints, Rams, Chiefs and Steelers all average over 30 points a game. Most defenses are conceding more points.
However, it’s still a not insignificant jump.
Seattle’s defense has played valiantly this season. Let’s not forget, they’ve gone through major changes. There’s no more Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Cliff Avril, Sheldon Richardson or Michael Bennett. All five players were on the roster last year but are now long gone. They also lost Earl Thomas to injury and K.J. Wright has been missing most of the season (and clearly still isn’t 100%). Dion Jordan has missed time, Mychal Kendricks has been suspended. Even Bradley McDougald’s hurt.
This is a tsunami of change. Most teams couldn’t handle it.
What Pete Carroll has garnered from his new-look group is highly impressive. They’re not a team of stars any more. Some of the current starters would’ve struggled to make the cut in 2013 and 2014. Players are raising their game, giving absolutely everything. It’s impressive and encouraging.
But they’re still giving up points. They’re still struggling to sustain consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They’re making mistakes in the secondary.
It’s all to be expected.
As frustrating as some of the offensive errors have been recently, the path to a better Seahawks clearly runs through a bolstered defense. They just need more bodies and talent.
They don’t have Bennett, Avril and Frank Clark as a trio any more. Can they find a couple of new guys to compliment Clark, either via the draft or free agency? Can they get some more depth and talent (and competition) for the secondary? Are they going to be able to re-sign Mychael Kendricks, get K.J. Wright back on a team-friendly deal or find a new WILL to provide the kind of speed needed to combat this exciting and prolific Rams offense?
They’ll struggle to match the LOB years and we shouldn’t expect to see a defense consistently leading the league year after year in PPG. However, it’s not unreasonable to think they can match Baltimore’s current rate of 17.8 PPG or Dallas’ 19.0 PPG.
Yes — the offense has had some frustrating moments. Yet imagine this running game, this quarterback and the level of production we’re seeing from the unit partnered with a defense that has a bit more talent and better depth. That would be a formula for a much more competitive 2019 season.
Something to remember about quarterbacks
We often see discussions about the future of Russell Wilson on Seahawks twitter. I tend to think all the flirting John Schneider does with quarterbacks in the draft (plus the leak about interest in Patrick Mahomes) is a combination of two things:
1. The Seahawks doing due diligence and simply liking some players
2. The Seahawks trying to gain leverage when they next talk contract with Wilson
After all, they never had a hope of landing Mahomes. He was the #10 pick in 2017. Seattle picked at #26. Them liking him is actually encouraging because Mahomes is an exceptional talent. There was never any realistic prospect of them actually being able to draft him though. It’s easy to say you might’ve drafted a player… ‘if only he hadn’t gone 16 picks too early’.
So while Seahawks twitter contemplates the possibility of Carroll and Schneider making the unprecedented move of getting rid of a franchise quarterback to save a few bucks, here’s something else to consider:
1. So you want a cheap quarterback? Who exactly?
2019 will be a shocking class for quarterbacks. It’s not a patch on the last 2-3 years. There simply isn’t an attractive early round option. So unless you’re willing to gamble on a mid-round quarterback being more Wilson than Nathan Peterman, what exactly is the plan here? Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence isn’t eligible until 2021. Tua Tagovailoa can’t turn pro until 2020. Both could be the #1 pick and therefore practically unattainable. What exactly is the proposal here?
2. What about a different veteran?
There’s no such thing as a cheap veteran quarterback. If the Seahawks wanted to find a game manager type, how much will it cost? 34-year-old Alex Smith just signed a contract worth $23.5m a year. Sam Bradford signed a two-year deal worth $20m a year. Are you willing to pay that much for a Bradford type just to avoid paying Russell Wilson $30m a year? I like Alex Smith a lot but he’s not on the market anymore. Who else is there? Teddy Bridgewater? Are you willing to give him $20-25m a year?
The Seahawks are always looking for a competitive edge. They wouldn’t be doing that if they weren’t at least contemplating the alternatives at a very expensive position.
But the reality of them actually pulling the trigger, especially in the current environment, appears to be practically zero. A bad quarterback draft, average quarterbacks getting paid millions.
I’m pretty sure they’re not ready for the Mike Glennon era just yet.
Where are the Seahawks currently slated to pick?
According to the brilliantly named ‘Tankathon’ website, they currently own the #14 overall pick. That would be their highest pick since 2012, when they owned the #12 pick after a 7-9 season before trading down to #15 and selecting Bruce Irvin.
There are going to be a lot of quality pass rushers available in the teens in 2019.
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