I'd bet that Marcus Lattimore will bounce back, but will he dominate?

I don’t know if any team drafted a higher number of “big name” prospects last weekend than the 49ers.  If you thought Jesse Williams was the best pick Seattle made, you’d love the 49ers draft, as it’s filled with similar draft decisions.

Regarding the Jesse Williams pick, I mirror Rob’s thoughts on it.  The selection of Jesse Williams isn’t some stroke of genius that required keen talent evaluation or deep insight.  Drafting a nobody like Richard Sherman coming out of Stanford and turning him into one of the NFL’s top players is what a stroke of genius looks like.  Everyone in the NFL knew how talented Williams was.  Seattle was just the first team to be in a comfortable enough position to gamble on Williams’ health.  It was a business decision that happened to cost a draft pick.

Maybe that’s why I’m just not that taken aback by the 49ers draft.  Think about Seattle’s amazing success in the draft, then think about how many of those players were not household names before those drafts.  The Seahawks go mining for hidden gems.  I’m not seeing anything like that in this 49ers draft class.  To me, it’s just a series of business decisions for well known commodities, most of them with high risk.

Round 1:  Eric Reid, S, LSU
Round 2:  Cornelius Carradine, DE, Florida State
Round 2:  Vance McDonald, TE, Rice
Round 3:  Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn
Round 4:  Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech
Round 4:  Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina
Round 5:  Quinton Dial, DE, Alabama
Round 6:  Nick Moody, OLB, Florida State
Round 7:  BJ Daniels, QB, South Florida
Round 7:  Carter Bykowski, T, Iowa State
Round 7:  Marcus Cooper, CB, Rutgers

Eric Reid was one of the most notable late risers in the 2013 draft process.  Whenever you see a guy that’s a late riser, it’s almost always a player with questionable tape that “tested” well (at the combine or pro-day).  I put on Reid’s compilation against Texas A&M from last season, and the negatives stack up while the positives are few and far between.  He lacks instincts, lacks timing, clumsily drew unnecessary penalties, takes on blocks poorly and often appeared apprehensive about taking on contact or making tackles.

Ironically, the hype for Reid originates from a league wide trend to emphasize upside with players this year, especially with players that fit a “Seahawk” blueprint.  Standing 6’1″, 213 pounds with the longest arms and the best vertical/broad jump among the 2013 safety group, and having no shortage of issues to nitpick him on, Reid looks quite a bit like a typical “head scratcher” Seahawks pick that turns into a star.  Clearly, this pick was made not because of the player Reid currently is, but what evaluators hope he might become.  It’s a lot like the Rams selection of Alec Ogletree.

Whether the Reid becomes worthy of his draft stock is on Harbaugh’s shoulders as a talent developer.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Reid makes a future pro-bowl on draft reputation, ala Patrick Peterson, but I don’t expect him to be a player that causes opposing coaches sleepless nights.

I was never a big fan of Cornelius Carradine, at least not in the role he played at Florida State.  Carradine did not participate in speed tests this winter as he’s recovering from a knee injury, but it’s been estimated that he has 4.90 speed and the eyeball test backs that up.  Carradine is no more of an edge rusher than Jesse Williams is.

What Carradine does do well is defend the run and never give up on plays.  He uses his 35″ arms well to control gaps while anchoring well.  Occasionally, he’ll take advantage of poor pass protection and use his arms to turn the corner.  His package of skills and size is a little bit like Courtney Upshaw, though he’s slower than Upshaw and lacks the intangible “spark” to his game that Upshaw had.  Another comparison might be Lawrence Jackson, who was good at everything in college but was too reliant on strength as a pass rusher and who’s sacks were nearly always of the “cleanup” variety, rarely forcing pressures for others.

I don’t buy the talk that Carradine was a top 15 pick before his injury.  His measurables and tape just simply don’t add up that high.  Not for me.

Though I’d probably grade Carradine in the 3rd round, I don’t think he’s going to bust for the 49ers, unless his knee problem resurfaces.  He’ll provide most of his value in run defense, while getting a few hustle sacks here and there.  What he’s not is a good replacement for Justin Smith.  Justin Smith’s arm combat makes him a pain to block- and makes him a much rarer talent- which is why he was taken 4th overall in the 2001 draft.  If the 49ers ever do find a good replacement for Justin Smith, it probably won’t be with a second round pick.

Vance McDonald is the one pick I’m not sure how to react to.  On tape, McDonald doesn’t look as fast as his impressive forty time, he struggled badly with drops, and he comes from a lower level of competition.  On the other hand, McDonald has the tall yet somehow bulky bowling ball type build to run over would be tacklers with ease.  He has the upside of becoming another Rob Gronkowski, himself a second round pick.  If McDonald so much as becomes a poor man’s Gronk, he could easily be considered the best pick the 49ers made when looking back in a few years.  Vance McDonald wasn’t necessarily a favorite of mine, but I respect this pick for what he could become.  Even if he became no more than TJ Duckett the tight end, he could be a nifty NFL contributor and worthy of this kind of investment.

My favorite pick the 49ers made was Corey Lemonier in the 3rd round.  Lemonier struggled with production down the stretch last season, but he tested extremely well at the combine and I thought looked the most fluid in drills of any pass rusher.  Lemonier’s explosiveness off the snap is about as good as you’ll find, and he combines that athleticism with one of the more complete pass rush repertoires in this draft among the more athletic prospects.  Had Seattle not gone crazy in free agency, I’m pretty sure Lemonier would be a Seahawk right now, as he fits their LEO profile very well.

I wasn’t a big fan of Quinton Patton before the draft, as I think he’d need to carve his niche out as an elite possession receiver in the NFL to justify his media hype, and that would only be possible if he landed with the right kind of quarterback.  If Colin Kaepernick ends up being the same passer that he was last season, I don’t think Patton landed in an ideal spot.  Kaepernick locks onto receivers and forces passes.  He’s still an athlete playing quarterback who achieves success through pure physical ability.  I expect Kaepernick to grow next season, but I don’t really see him turning into a surgeon on offense any time soon.

Still, it’s hard to argue with a well rounded talent like Patton in the 4th round, especially one with the kind of competitive intangibles that make you think he’ll be an NFL over-achiever.   This was a solid pick by the 49ers; their first pick in the draft that I wouldn’t label a “high risk” selection.

Marcus Lattimore is no stranger to injury at South Carolina, and he saved his most brutal injury for last.  You have to be impressed with the character Lattimore has shown through this whole experience, and the incredible work he’s put into his recovery.  Lattimore’s running style reminds me a little of a poor man’s Marshawn Lynch, and it seems both have a big heart for the game as well.  Betting against Lattimore based on his intangibles alone seems like a fool’s errand.

Marshawn Lynch comparisons are passe, but Lattimore earns them much more than most runners do. Both are runners who have top shelf agility, power, balance, and resilience with NFL average speed.  Both excel as first down rushers for possession oriented offenses and both only rarely create explosive plays.  You put on the tape and you see a lot of five yard runs, but hardly any rushes that go for 15+.  I think Lynch is better than a healthy Lattimore for a few reasons: he’s a better athlete overall and he’s more consistent week to week.  Lattimore’s game log looks like Shaun Alexander’s, huge numbers one week and then quiet numbers the next.

Of course, if Lattimore does recover, he’s still a massive injury risk going forward.  The 49ers team is built in a very similar manner to Seattle: primarily around the running game.  How would you feel building your entire offense around a guy with Lattimore’s injury history, being backed up by a pair of 3rd down running backs (LaMichael James, Kendall Hunter)?  This could end up being a great pick by the 49ers, but it doesn’t get much higher risk than this for a 4th rounder.

Even if Lattimore does turn into a good player long term, it doesn’t worry me much as a Seahawks fan.  The Seahawks have done very well against physical backs in the recent past.  I think Lattimore is likely to be a solid pro more than the star that his fan reputation belies.  A common forecast among the more enlightened fanbase is a Willis McGahee career path.  The more I think about it, the more that projection feels right.

Quinton Dial impressed me with what little I saw of him before the draft.  He moves very well for a big man and would be an ideal prospect for a Red Bryant type role.

There isn’t much out there for Nick Moody.  He’s a converted DB who possesses Khaseem Greene type speed.  He’s said to be strong in coverage and every video I find of him shows him to be a big hitter.   This is the first pick the 49ers made that I hadn’t heard of.  I don’t know much about Moody, but on the surface he seems to have all the tools he needs to be an NFL starter at linebacker.

BJ Daniels was my favorite late round quarterback for a read option offense.  This was the one pick the 49ers made that felt like a gut punch.  Of course, Daniels has a steep mountain to climb and is more of a fun prospect to follow rather than a guy who’s likely to be the next Russell Wilson.

Carter Bykowski is a flier pick in the late rounds.  Possessing a Tom Cable lineman type height/weight ratio (6’7″, 306), it’s a little surprising to me that Bykowski ran only a 5.30 forty.  There isn’t any tape available, unfortunately.  Like Seattle’s late round picks at O-line, Bykowski is presumed to be fighting an uphill battle to make the 49ers’ roster.

You would think that standing 6’2″ while running a 4.45 at corner for a solid program like Rutgers would get you drafted before the 7th round, but that’s where Marcus Cooper (a projected UDFA) wound up.  Cooper will probably be the 49ers’ equivalent of Byron Maxwell and contribute mostly on special teams.

Overall impression:

The 49ers most successful draft in recent years was headlined by two “head scratcher” picks in Aldon Smith and Colin Kaepernick.  Since then, the best player Trent Balke has pulled out of the draft was Kendall Hunter in the 4th round that same year.  The 49ers were the NFL’s only team to log zero rookie starts last season.

In previous years, Trent Baalke drafted under the radar prospects with mixed results.  This year, he loaded up on several well known, big name prospects with high risk.  My quick takeaway is that the 49ers just drafted a bunch of NFL average players, with a handful of wildcards mixed in such as McDonald, Lemonier, and Lattimore.  I’m not particularly bullish on the 49ers’ performance on days one and two, but I thought they had a fairly strong day three.

Last year I had no doubt that the Seahawks had the best draft not only in the division, but in the NFL.  To say I was a huge fan of the Wilson pick would be an understatement, and I was thrilled by the addition of Irvin too, even if it was much earlier than I anticipated.

This year, I honestly have no idea which team fared the best.  I think in five years time we’ll probably see at least one pro-bowl caliber player drafted by each NFC West team from this draft.  All four teams drafted players I was very high on before the draft.

I think this was a solid draft by the 49ers but it kind of feels like a draft that Mel Kiper could have made.  The only “off the radar” pick they made with much potential to excite is Nick Moody or perhaps BJ Daniels, and both will probably be long term backups.  Actually, I guess I should count Corey Lemonier as being off the radar since most people who do not frequent this blog are likely to be unfamiliar with him.

For the most part, this draft felt more like a series of calculated business decisions more than talent evaluations.  Time will tell how those calculated gambles play out.

In a couple of ways, Tavon Austin's controversy reminds me of Russell Wilson's

Much like the San Francisco 49ers, the St. Louis Rams were highly active movers on draft day and drafted mostly “big name” prospects.  Of the Rams’ seven selections, only two of them were originally owned by the Rams.  The pick used to get Tavon Austin was originally owned by the Bills before the Rams struck a deal to move up.  That deal also involved swapping 3rd round picks.  The Rams traded down from #22 and acquired three picks from Atlanta (and gave up a 2015 7th rounder).  The Rams traded their final two picks (both in the 6th round- one of them from Atlanta) for the Texans’ 5th rounder.

The Seahawks drafted 11 players, 4 of which I had never heard of before and 3 of which I was only faintly aware of.  I recognized every player the Rams drafted.  I think any fan that follows the draft decently well probably would recognize most of their picks.  Drafting big names is a great way to earn draft day awards in the media but isn’t a particularly good long term indicator, as the Arizona Cardinals have proven for years.  Big name players like Barrett Jones, Jesse Williams, Quinton Patton, and Ryan Swope dropped into the later rounds for a good reason, a reason that all 32 teams agreed to as evidenced by not drafting them.  Jesse Williams has 1st round talent, but that does not guarantee that he’s a 5th round steal.  There’s more to it than that.  Just because you recognize a lot of the names drafted, don’t be fooled.  Seattle’s best late round picks in the current regime were all players that made fans say “who?” on draft day.

There is a growing sentiment that Seattle’s long term adversary is not the 49ers, but the Rams.  I find that idea more than a little dismissive of a massively talented 49ers team, but I get it.  The Rams were tied for the NFL lead in sacks last year, they play very tough defense, and they almost went undefeated in the division last year.

But just as important, the Rams have something the 49ers and Seahawks do not have:  areas for potentially significant improvement.  Sam Bradford’s career passer rating is almost identical to Christian Ponder’s.  The Rams offensive line has never truly solidified.  They had an over-the-hill and perhaps unmotivated running back as the focal point of their offense last year.  The Rams best receiver was well below the NFL median in yards per target, could never stay healthy, and departed in free agency.  Yet despite all those issues, the Rams offense last season still somehow ranked 15th in Football Outsiders metrics (The Seahawks ranked 1st, amazingly.  No team threw fewer passes last year than the Seahawks).

Add a couple of playmaking receivers, solidify the offensive line, upgrade the running back spot, and suddenly the Rams offense becomes a group that could surprise people.  The team added Jake Long in free agency to pair with Roger Saffold.  They’ll have last year’s late round steal Daryl Richardson compete with this year’s hopeful steal:  Zac Stacy.  Either one would likely be an upgrade over what Steven Jackson gave them last year.  They drafted two of the best receivers in the draft.  They also signed the physically talented tight end Jared Cook.

The media got it wrong.  The NFC West “arms race” wasn’t between Seattle and San Francisco.  It was between Seattle and St. Louis.

Thankfully, the Rams have invested quite a bit around a quarterback that has been below average in his first three seasons.  Bradford has only thrown 4 total touchdowns in 6 starts against Seattle; throwing an interception in all six contests.  He managed just six points against Seattle’s 32nd ranked defense in 2010 (Football Outsiders weighted defense), dropping what would have been a division winning, playoff clinching 6-16 contest.  Bradford was out-dueled that night by Charlie Whitehurst.

The moves the Rams have made are impressive, though it reminds me of buying a lemon on the used car lot.  You might think you got a deal at first, but the car repair bills quickly add up and you end up with a vehicle that is both expensive and undependable, built around a faulty core.  You’d expect Bradford to improve statistically next season, but don’t expect miracles.  We know what Bradford is and isn’t.  He isn’t an elite quarterback, but I could see him being elevated to average with a better supporting cast.

Imagine the Rams with RG3.  Most people might react to that by saying it’s unfair to expect the Rams to have been such radical forward thinkers in 2012.  But in today’s NFL, you have to be a radical forward thinker to be the best.  If Griffin can learn to protect his body and refine himself as a pocket passer, I suspect many people will question the Rams making that trade in a few years time.  The Rams got a long list of talented players in return, but so did the Browns when they dealt the pick that turned into Julio Jones.

The Rams 2013 draft:

Round 1:  Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
Round 1:  Alec Ogletree, LB, Geogia
Round 3:  T.J. McDonald, S, USC
Round 3:  Stedman Bailey, WR, West Virginia
Round 4:  Barrett Jones, G, Alabama
Round 5:  Brandon McGee, CB, Miami
Round 5:  Zac Stacy, RB, Vanderbilt

My least favorite cliche during the 2013 draft:  “Tavon Austin is just another Dexter McCluster.”  This has been repeated by even some very intelligent football minds.  I get the basis for it.  They compare Austin to McCluster because of usage.  I still think it’s a bullshit comparison.

Dexter McCluster ran an official 4.58 at the 2010 NFL combine.  This time was considered a “head scratcher” by people that assume you must be fast if you returned kicks for touchdowns in college and made the occasional defender miss.  An observer with a keen eye could have told you before that combine that McCluster would run close to a 4.60.  On tape he wasn’t exploding for big runs, and he wasn’t separating from pursuers.  He’d make guys miss and all that, but he had precious little room for error.

Contrast that with Austin, who ran a smooth 4.34 at his combine (including a couple of unofficial times in the 4.2s) and has Barry Sanders type moves in the open field.  John Schneider believes that longer arms improve a player’s forty time in coverage.  In a similar sense, I’d argue that making defenders miss without dropping many MPH is an enhancing factor for speed on offense.  Barry Sanders is not the fastest player in NFL history (among those faster:  Tavon Austin).  What Barry Sanders can claim is that he was the NFL’s most elusive runner of all time.  I think Austin’s speed and elusiveness is in the same discussion with Barry Sanders.  Comparing him to Dexter McCluster, from an athleticism perspective, is ridiculous.  If you are itching for a McCluster comp, set your cross-hairs on Ace Sanders instead.

Austin will play in the slot for the Rams and could move around the formation ala Percy Harvin.  Austin probably won’t rush for over 300 yards in a game like he did against the Oklahoma Sooners last season, but I’m sure the Rams will experiment in various ways.  I do not think Austin is some kind of specialist.  I don’t think NFL teams think that either.  You don’t draft Dexter McCluster type specialists in the top 10 picks, and the Rams were not the only team to consider doing so.

I think the most compelling counter argument against Tavon Austin is the one Rob made comparing him to DeSean Jackson.  Both Austin and Jackson have nearly identical speed and both are excellent “moves” runners with outstanding instincts.  Jackson isn’t particularly durable and might not be the biggest competitor.  That’s where I see the difference.  The next bone crushing hit I see Austin take will be the first.  He has a great sense for avoiding contact and sensing danger over the middle.  I think as long as Sam Bradford has the sense to not hang Austin up to dry, he should be fine.  Press him at the line?  How’d that work for Seattle against small, ultra quick receivers such as Danny Amendola and Wes Welker last season?  Austin is a big time competitor too and I think that probably played a role in the Rams’ decision to also draft Stedman Bailey.

Ultimately, I’ve always viewed Austin as a top ten talent in a small body.  I figured that his stature would drop him into the 2nd round from the same kind of size bias that hurt Russell Wilson last year.  With Wilson you heard a lot of people saying that he’d only be a backup in the NFL, as if to suggest that height wouldn’t be a problem if he only played in short stretches of the season.  I always thought that was odd.  With Austin, you have people suggesting he can’t be a full time player because of his size, even though there are already full time players at his size in the NFL.

I can’t promise that Austin will be a megastar.  He was more of an attraction than a foundational piece even in college.  He was more flash than pure production.  I could very easily see Stedman Bailey beating Austin in yardage, as Bailey did in 2012.  That said, I do think it’s very likely that Austin will be the Rams version of CJ Spiller, Reggie Bush, Chris Johnson or DeSean Jackson: he may not be a rock in the offense, but he’ll get them cheap points when they desperately need them and help them win games that they wouldn’t have won otherwise.

Further, Seattle has struggled against ultra quick players in the recent past.  Seattle’s secondary is not designed to counter them.  Reggie Bush, CJ Spiller, Stevie Johnson, Wes Welker, Danny Amendola, Titus Young (who had just 383 yards last season but had 100 against us), Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson, and Brandon Marshall.  Those were the skill position players who gave Seattle’s defense the most trouble last season.  Gore struggled in his second meeting.  Peterson and Marshall dominated the entire league and Seattle was no different.  The rest were ultra quick players who enjoyed enhanced success against our defense or were consistently productive week to week and were not slowed by our big defensive backfield.

If players like those are a pain for our defense to handle, imagine Austin.  It wouldn’t surprise me if Austin had his two best games of the 2013 season against Seattle.

Some might argue that Austin isn’t worth the investment the Rams made.  Even as someone who thinks Austin is undervalued by many, I understand that argument.  However, the Rams are gunning for the top of the division, and to do so they must build a team capable of exploiting the weaknesses of the alpha franchise.  The Rams already seem to have the 49ers’ number somehow.  Now they just need to solve the Seahawks.  Austin is a potent tool in their arsenal to that end.

Alec Ogletree wasn’t the athlete we thought he’d be when he tested at the NFL Combine, and he lost fans when deeper tape study revealed a player who shies from contact and lacks natural instincts.  Ogletree has a Kam Chancellor type build but otherwise they are nothing alike.  I didn’t like the value with this choice either, as Arthur Brown is at least arguably a better prospect and he went a full round later.  Alec Ogletree also had an arrest for DUI during the week of the NFL Combine, which whispers Koren Robinson levels of poor judgement.  I think the Rams are in for an unpleasant surprise with this pick.

TJ McDonald was a bit like the Rams’ version of our Jordan Hill pick.  Both have modest measurables and on paper should only be NFL average starters, but both have a lot of polish and effort which makes them strong candidates to be NFL over-achievers.  McDonald sometimes lacks in the physicality department, but he has good instincts in run support and his man-coverage skills were a bit of an eye-opener for me when I gave him a second look.  He almost reminds me of a safety version of Bobby Wagner.  I doubt McDonald makes a pro-bowl in his career, but I could see him being one of those good component players that slips under the national radar.

A technician at receiver who is almost indistinguishable from Robert Woods or a young Bobby Engram, Stedman Bailey was one of the bigger steals in the draft  when the Rams took him in the 3rd round.  Bailey is one of the draft’s best receivers at making his first cut.  He runs smooth routes, has dependable hands and has a nose for the endzone after the catch.  He’s sticks to his blocks well.  He has the tools to continue being a very good possession receiver in the NFL.  It wouldn’t shock me if he proved to be more of a core piece in the offense than his West Virginia teammate.

Someone who’s thoughts I often borrow compared John Moffitt’s blocking style to a forklift.  When I watch Barrett Jones, I see that same exact trait.  Jones is always pushing the defender’s pads up with his arms in pass protection, and relies on similar technique in the running game.  Jones might be slightly below the NFL average as an athlete and chooses to win with technique instead.  I like Moffitt more than most, and I’d consider him to be NFL average; he’s a player who narrowly avoids disaster often and who makes touchdown springing blocks with no margin for error to spare.  Moffitt came from a team that’s an NFL lineman factory.  Barrett Jones is the same story.

As John Schneider would say, Brandon McGee “tested well.”  His results across the board were on the better side of the combine median for corners, with the exception of arm length and broad jump, and neither were bad scores.  Only four corners ran a better forty time and all four went much earlier than McGee did.  McGee’s ten yard split was the best among the entire corner group.

It is a bit of a challenge to watch McGee’s finesse style of play, frequent use in loose man coverages, and lack of ball hawking tendencies and not think about Kelly Jennings.  The fact that McGee wears #21 and played for the Miami Hurricanes probably isn’t helping matters.

Another 5’8″ running back, Zac Stacy continues a trend among our NFC West rivals of adding short running backs.  Stacy weighs just four pounds less than Chistine Michael and both were among the running back leaders on the bench press with 27 reps.  Stacy has NFL average speed, but makes up for it with just about everything else.  He reminds me quite a bit of “complete” college running backs like Chris Polk or Cierre Wood.  Good pick.

Stacy, McGee, and Jones all profile as NFL average players.  I think Bailey will end up as an above average possession receiver.  McDonald is a bit of a Tim Ruskell type defender.  I think he’ll help that team as long as he remains cheap.  Ogletree is the big risk in a draft full of safe picks.  Tavon Austin will be more of a pest than a foundational piece, though unfortunately I think that’s enough for the Rams to present a problem in future head to head matches.

Overall impression:

If you just want starters and reps, I’d probably nominate the Rams as having the best draft in the NFC West, based on what I can determine at this stage.  All seven picks are pretty likely to make the Rams’ roster and I could see several of them starting in 2013.

That said, other than Austin at the top, very little about this draft worries me.  The Rams’ draft is tilted towards safe picks and not upside selections, and the Rams aren’t going to catch the Seahawks by bunting the runner to 3rd base.  Drafting for safer, less dynamic players was a bit of a trend for the Rams last year too, and it shouldn’t be surprising that their best pick was the riskiest one they made (a pick I really liked for the Rams, as I thought Jenkins was clearly the draft’s best corner and character concerns are often blown out of proportion during draft season).  If the Rams want to catch Seattle, they must strive for more than a roster that settles for average starters at most positions.

Michael was the #3 High School running back in 2009 (according to Rivals) behind just Bryce Brown and Trent Richardson. He was a 5-star recruit. Among the teams expressing an interest in his services? USC.

Pete Carroll discussed the advantage of his college experience when he arrived in Seattle. It played a part in the decision to draft Bruce Irvin 15th overall last year. Carroll tried to recruit Irvin to the Trojans before he opted for West Virginia. A few years later, it helped the Seahawks find a level of comfort with Irvin’s background. Other teams feared certain character red flags dating back to his upbringing in Atlanta.

This knowledge hasn’t always led the Seahawks down an obvious path. Pete Carroll reportedly once referred to Arthur Brown as the best linebacker, “he’d seen in seven years.” The Seahawks passed up the chance to draft Brown with the #56 pick this year, trading down so Baltimore could do the honours.

Yet it appears Carroll has some previous with Michael. There’s no way of knowing how deep USC’s interest was during his high school days. Carroll loved to recruit 5-star running backs, making multiple players share snaps as part of an electrifying run game. The chances are he already knows a fair bit about this guy. And that probably factored into the decision to draft him in round two.

I’ve included an interview he conducted with ESPN 710 this week. Below that you’ll see an example of the kind of athlete Seattle added to the roster over the weekend.

Arizona is where good prospects go to die. Will Ryan Swope be an exception?

Last January the Cardinals cleaned house, firing 11 year general manager Rod Graves and head coach Ken Whisenhunt.  Arizona has been a troubled franchise for most of it’s history, so you’d think they would have opted for as big a change of scenery as possible.  Remarkably, they instead opted to stay in house for their next GM hire, promoting vice president of player personnel Steve Keim.

Keim has been with the Arizona franchise for 15 years, and has been part of several dubious drafts and offseason overhauls.  Imagine if Tim Ruskell had lasted over a decade before being fired, only to be replaced by his deputy Ruston Webster.  That’s basically what Arizona did this past winter.  They also fired a quality head coach in Ken Whisenhunt and replaced him with a coach that’s drawn comparisons to Dick Jauron.  (<— Great article, by the way.)

Regardless, Arizona has turned a new leaf even if it looks uncomfortably familiar for Cardinals fans.  Steve Keim was one of four finalists for Seattle’s GM opening in 2010.  He must have impressed on some level to gain this opportunity.  Let’s see how he did:

Round 1: Jonathan Cooper, G, North Carolina
Round 2: Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU
Round 3: Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU
Round 4: Alex Okafor, DE, Texas
Round 4: Earl Watford, G, James Madison
Round 5: Stepfan Taylor, RB, Stanford
Round 6: Ryan Swope, WR, Texas A&M
Round 6: Andre Ellington, RB, Clemson
Round 7: D.C. Jefferson, TE, Rutgers

Jonathan Cooper is worth the hype.  It’s not often you see a great technician at guard who also boasts top shelf athleticism.  Even hyped guards like Chance Warmack and Mike Iupati were not as polished as Cooper is, and I would argue that Cooper is a much smoother athlete.  Cooper may not have the ultra-rare power that Warmack and Iupati possess, but he doesn’t lack for strength and can move defenders.  This is the highest a guard has been taken in a very long time, but Arizona’s line has been in bad shape since pretty much the dawn of time.  Cooper was part of an unprecedented early rush on lineman in a historically good o-lineman class.

Kevin Minter has NFL-average athleticism and had as many negative plays as positive ones when I scouted him, missing tackles and misreading the run.  I don’t think I would have wanted Seattle to draft him in any round, but if you forced me to put a grade on him for the league I probably would have said 5th or 6th round.  The linebacker class this year was one of the weakest I’ve ever seen- full of slower linebackers with sloppy tape.  That caused some flawed talents to end up being overdrafted.  Minter among them.

Tyrann Mathieu is over-valued because he made some big plays during a 2011 season when his team nearly ran the table for a national championship.  His size, measurables, and the “luck factor” of his tape lead me to think he’ll be an average NFL player at best.  It appears that he may not yet have beaten his demons off the field.  This pick reminds me a bit of Maurice Clarrett in 2005, the big difference being that Mathieu seems like a better person- the kind you want to root for despite his problems.  It’s rare to see a 3rd round pick not make the initial roster.  Clarrett didn’t.  Mathieu probably makes Arizona’s roster, but if his problems continue, it’s conceivable he might not.

The fourth round feels about right for Alex Okafor, despite the fact that he has second round measurables and a surprisingly good pass rush repertoire.  Where Okafor lacks is speed, and he wasn’t really a dominant force at Texas.  I think that’s what scared teams away- the fact that Okafor felt like he was just getting by instead of dominating.  Cerebral analysis tells me that Okafor deserved to be drafted much earlier than this, but my instincts tell me he’s probably fool’s gold.  Okafor is a classic 4-3 end, so it’s surprising that he was taken by a 3-4 team as an outside linebacker.  I think this would have been a solid pick normally, but I think Okafor is miscast in a 3-4 defense.

Earl Watford was one of four players drafted this year out of the sub-division I Colonial Athletic Association (Seattle’s Jared Smith was one of the others).  There isn’t a ton of stuff on Watford out there, but one thing I noticed about him is how trim he looks- he’s almost like a tight end at guard in terms of his physique and athleticism.  Watford’s measurables are very similar to JR Sweezy, and Sweezy is one of the NFL’s most athletic guards.  One thing Sweezy has in his corner though- Tom Cable’s coaching.  The success of this pick is firmly on the shoulders of Bruce Arians’ coaching staff.

Stefan Taylor reminds me of Nick Foles in a way.  Both are players that looked great in college when you see them with a casual eye, but when you put the tape on and view with a scouting lens, a host of problems appear.  Taylor has quick feet and can sometimes make players miss, but his balance was surprisingly lacking and he had no resilience as a runner (meaning that he was usually dead to rights at first contact).  The lack of resilience is a little surprising given his bulk (214 pounds).  He’s also short (5’9″) and slow (ran just a 4.70 at the combine).  His size, speed, and lack of resilience reminds me of former Pac-12 rusher Justin Forsett, though Forsett was more explosive and had better vision.

I’ll have to assume medical concerns caused a drop for Ryan Swope.  I’d argue that his multiple concussions don’t scare me very much given that he played through them without issues or missed time.  That said, I’m not running an NFL team and most general managers view draft picks as business decisions.  Business decisions weigh risk very heavily, I would say too much so.  I’ve said my piece on Swope and I think that if he stays healthy he’ll be one of the biggest steals in the draft.  Matt Waldman recently had an article that echoed similar sentiments and even claimed that Swope might have a more productive career than Tavon Austin.

Arizona isn’t exactly deep at receiver and you can expect a talented young quarterback to arrive there a year from now.  In the meantime, Carson Palmer may not be a good quarterback anymore, but he can still rack up a ton of yards.  Oddly enough, Arizona might have been a better landing spot for Swope than Seattle would have been.  That would be a worrisome thought, if there wasn’t a gulf separating those two franchises now and for the foreseeable future.

Andre Ellington was the centerpiece of my favorite play from the 2012 college football season.  I like that Arizona is grab-bagging running backs to address their running back need.  This is a league where an average running back can be productive in the right situation, see Stevan Ridley or BenJarvis Green-Ellis.  You don’t have to spend a high pick to get solid results.

I like Ellington’s talent more than Taylor’s.  Both runners are 5’9″ and have quick feet, but Ellington is tougher, more resilient, faster, has better balance and has more power.  The only bad thing I can say about Ellington is that he’s shocking bad as a pass blocker, despite being so strong as a runner.

Unfortunately, I couldn’t find much on D.C. Jefferson.  What I can tell you is that he only ran a 4.97 forty at 6’5″, 255 pounds.  Seahawks 6th round pick Luke Willson ran a 4.51 at 6’5″, 251 pounds and he plays the same position.  I’d guess that Arizona brought Jefferson in as a blocking specialist or perhaps a special teams player, but I’d be guessing.

Overall impression:

I’m not saying Arizona had a great draft, but the feel of this draft is surprisingly different than Cardinals’ drafts of years past.  The Cardinals are famous for loading up on big names during draft weekend and earning top honors when draft grades are handed out, only to have those drafts look incredibly overrated in retrospect.  The only player Arizona drafted this year that I’d consider a “big name” pick was Tyrann Mathieu, and he was only a 3rd round investment.  I guess I’d argue Stefan Taylor as a “name” pick in round five, too.  I think they drafted a few over-rated prospects (Minter, Mathieu, Taylor) but they had some really solid picks too (Cooper, Ellington).  Swope in the 6th, if he stays healthy, might be the biggest steal in the entire draft.  Watford and Okafor have the tools to be above average players, though both have obstacles to overcome.

If Cooper and Swope have the careers I think they’ll have, they could make this draft on their own.  Their other 6th round pick could end up starting games at running back, too.

Thoughts, reactions, and reaction GIFs after the jump! Continue reading

Perception can be a funny thing sometimes.

For example, if you were told the Seahawks would come out of this draft with Jesse Williams and Christine Michael, I suspect you’d give it a big thumbs up. Yet I sense a slightly mixed reaction to Seattle’s latest class simply due to the order in which the players were taken.

I had Williams pinned to Seattle at #56 in my final mock draft, but he fell due to lingering concerns over a troublesome knee injury. Nobody really anticipated a fall into round five. Put it down to one of those cases where information within the various front offices never leaked to the media. The Seahawks clearly liked something about him, given they traded up for the first time in the John Schneider era to get the big Australian (and Tharold Simon, corner from LSU).

Michael was one of four players — along with Williams, Quinton Patton and Khaseem Greene — who we slated as possible options for Seattle in round two. Michael was the pick after trading down to #62, but Patton and Greene both lasted into round four (somewhat surprisingly). I’m guessing a few people raised an eye brow at taking a running back so early. Some, not unfairly, believed there were greater needs. Such as defensive tackle. Put Michael in round three after Williams in round two, and people would rejoice. Again, perception can be funny sometimes.

I would recommend forgetting the rounds where certain players were drafted and just look at the class overall. When I look at this group I see players with a legit shot to make what has become a pretty deep roster even better.

Michael will instantly have an impact, which is all you can ask for from a second round pick. At a time when a lot of people expect the Seahawks to open up the passing game and begin to exploit further wrinkles within the read-option, this was a statement to the contrary. Pete Carroll has never wavered from his instance that his offense will be built around the run. It’s time to take that point at face value.

Marshawn Lynch is not a machine and his physical running style will lead to injuries. That doesn’t necessarily mean season ending issues, but the little back problems and foot injuries he seems to have carried for the last couple of years will probably continue. It might not keep him off the field (it didn’t last year) but getting Michael allows the Seahawks to manage this situation even better than they were able to last year. Lynch is so important to this team. They don’t want to wait until he gets a serious injury to address this situation.

Jordan Hill and Jesse Williams significantly upgrade what this team had at defensive tackle (which was very little) — a priority area coming into the off-season. The league is full of big-name busts at the position. Pass rushers who flatter to deceive, showing enough leg to find a home in round one. And yet you can count the number of elite three-technique’s on one hand. The elite guys go early (see: Ndamukong Suh, Sheldon Richardson). Even if the Seahawks had kept the #25 pick this year, the best they could’ve hoped for was Sly Williams. Instead of Williams, they get Percy Harvin, Jordan Hill and Jesse Williams. Think about that for a second.

The best three technique in the NFL is a former fourth round pick weighing 6-1 and 300lbs. While nobody would necessarily compare Jordan Hill to Geno Atkins, Hill’s frame (6-1 and also 300lbs-ish) is very similar. The Seahawks are right to keep searching for the next diamond in the rough. Darnell Dockett was also a mid-round pick. They may never find what they’re looking for, but they’ve given themselves a shot with the two guys taken this year.

Williams’ health will be key, although Pete Carroll has already pegged him as a three-technique speaking during the press conference today (see above). Hill can play the one or the three. There’s good depth along the line now. And who’d bet against either Hill or Williams starting this year or next?

Chris Harper is a player I have mixed feelings about. Watching Kansas State games last year, I developed a passing interest without really studying him. Once I sat down to focus solely on his play, my interest waned a little. He’s stocky rather than tall (he’s 6-1 and close to 230lbs) but the Seahawks clearly want to use him predominantly on the outside.

Harper’s very clever at shielding the receiver and using his frame to his advantage. I like that about him. He competes for the ball and is capable of making difficult catches in double coverage. But it seemed too often on tape there were more negative plays than positive. Little mistakes, an unwillingness to improvise when a play breaks down and no outstanding characteristics made for a frustrating watch at times.

The Seahawks have been looking for what you’d call a ‘possession’ guy for some time. A physical receiver who compliments the rest of the group. They’ve tried Mike Williams, Kris Durham and Braylon Edwards. Harper is the next man up. There’s plenty of tape out there so we’ll get into him (and the others) over the next few days.

Cornerback Tharold Simon is the type of guy you want to love, but can’t make the full commitment. He has great length, fluidity and the ability to stick in coverage. Despite that, he doesn’t seem to play with any great physical quality or intensity. He’s one of the players the LSU coaches publicly listed as not making the most of his opportunity to be great. An arrest during the draft for intimidating a police officer wasn’t great news either.

Having said all of that, you look at him in pads and think “Seahawks corner” immediately. He has the potential. He has the size and length. He had 22 pass break-ups and seven picks in three years at LSU, despite playing with production machine’s like Patrick Peterson, Morris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu. He’ll have to battle with a deep crop of corners to win a place on the roster. Who’d bet against him being the next big thing though? We’ve seen this team work their magic on Richard Sherman — a player who looked far from convincing at times for Stanford. I wouldn’t be shocked if Simon was starting for the Seahawks by 2014/15.

I’m not going to pretend I have anything to offer on Luke Wilson, Ryan Seymour, Ty Powell or Jared Smith. Apparently they plan to try Smith — a defensive tackle in college — at guard. He is the second coming of Sweezy. Spencer Ware, a running back at LSU (and also on that list I mentioned earlier) will be transformed into a full back and special teams, errr, specialist. Don’t rule him out as a runner though. His tape is pretty good.

A lot of people talked about a need at offensive tackle. Consider this off-season a vote of confidence in Breno Giacomini. Not that he needed one, he had a terrific 2012 season apart from a spate of early penalties. Giacomini gets a raw deal from the fans for some reason. Perhaps he’s a bit of a scape goat? I don’t know. But the fact Seattle waited until round seven to draft a tackle (NE Oklahoma State’s Michael Bowie) suggests they don’t think this is a major need. After all, they passed on Terron Armstead, Brennan Williams, David Bakhtiari, Jordan Mills and a long list of others.

They didn’t draft a linebacker, which shows a degree of faith in the players already on the roster and gives a nod to the way the defense will line up this year. Expect a few creative looks with an extra pass rusher playing the SAM. It’s something we talked about when discussing Courtney Upshaw last year, and Pete Carroll has been pretty vocal about Bruce Irvin and Cliff Avril featuring in adaptable roles this year.

Is it me, or did John Schneider seem a little agitated during the press conference today? It’s maybe nothing. Or perhaps he missed out on a player or two he really wanted during this draft?

What was the biggest shock on day three? For me it’s Tyler Bray and Matt Scott going undrafted. Shocker. Bray’s always had character issues and his play can be wild and erratic. But for nobody to draft the guy is still a little surprising. Scott was maybe overrated during the process but must have had lingering injury concerns to become an UDFA. There was a time when he was considered a possible day two pick.

Prediction: Matt Barkley wins a starting job in Philly. Maybe even this year.

I think the Jets had an incredible draft. Sheldon Richardson and Dee Milliner — for me — were the two best players available in 2013 They’ll set up that defense for years to come. Geno Smith will almost certainly become the new starting quarterback. Brian Winters and Oday Aboushi will solidify the offensive line and Winters in particular is a great pick. And to top it all off, they trade for Chris Ivory. Bravo, John Idzik. Bravo.

Baltimore, unsurprisingly, finish in a close second for me. Their first five picks were Matt Elam, Arthur Brown, Brandon Williams, John Simon and Kyle Juszczyk. At least in Juszczyk’s case, we don’t have to worry about spelling (or saying) that name over and over again.

San Francisco also had an awesome draft. Sorry, but they did. That team isn’t going away. Seahawks fans can dream about Super Bowls if they want, but the first step is overtaking the Niners in the NFC West. And that will not be easy.

Nobody seems to have asked this question or done any digging, but I still want to know if San Francisco moved ahead of Seattle in round two because the Seahawks were planning to draft Vance McDonald at #56. Given the interest in both teams right now, I’m surprised nobody’s gone after that one.

You can keep track of the UDFA’s signed by Seattle here courtesy of Field Gulls.

Tomorrow we’ll get into the drafted guys and find out more about them. I’ve also already compiled a list of 2014 players to watch so we’ll get into that too.