The two big revelations come in the first two tweets. First, Warmack not being available at #14 is an eye opener. He’s good, don’t get me wrong. But if both he and Jonathan Cooper are expected to go early, where do they fit? I’m struggling to find two teams who might go guard in the top-13 before Carolina picks. Tennessee is one possible destination. Would the Jets do it? San Diego? Having assumed for a couple of weeks that Warmack might fall, it might be time to reconsider.
Secondly, Ryan Nassib at #8. It just seems too obvious. Miami re-connected a college coach with his quarterback at #8 last year. Will it happen again? I’m still sceptical. Yet it would be a very ‘Buffalo’ type move. And a mistake, in my opinion. Others are saying it’s a two-horse race between Nassib and Matt Barkley:
Nassib to the #Bills is the toast of draft rumor talk right now, but don’t forget about Barkley. They like him a lot, too. Two-horse race.
John Idzik has seen it all before. A quarterback earning a boat load of guaranteed cash, sitting on the bench holding a clipboard. It’s not unusual.
In his final season in Seattle he was part of a front office that signed Matt Flynn and gave him $10m. In return, they got a backup. The reason? A much cheaper rookie quarterback was simply superior. Both in the short and long term, it made sense to take the financial hit and move on.
History could be about to repeat itself.
By trading Darrelle Revis to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a similar situation could be unfolding. The deal will give the Jets at least the #13 overall pick on Thursday to go with the #9 selection. The Jets also own the seventh pick in round two. That’s a veritable bounty for a franchise that needs to get better, younger and cheaper.
People are already suggesting the Jets could use their two first round picks on a pass rusher and a replacement cornerback. I don’t buy that. What was the big problem last year? It was the titanic white elephant of an offense that destroyed any chance the Jets had to be competitive. They ended the year a laughing stock.
Part of this was down to the way they handled the quarterback position. The Tim Tebow experiment was a disaster, Tony Sparano was an odd choice to replace Brian Schottenheimer and the whole plan served only to undermine Mark Sanchez, who’d just been re-signed to a hopelessly flawed extension. They had no serviceable running back and a dearth of talent at receiver. It was a shambles.
If that team wants to get back to relevance, the offense has to be the starting point. Rex Ryan can put a defense on the field that is respectable. That’s why he’s even in New York. Everything points to an offensive rebuild in the draft.
There are two schools of thinking when it comes to Sanchez. Most people have written him off. Others believe he’s been harshly treated. After all, he’s had nothing to work with in New York. No talented pass catchers. No running game. Nevertheless, it’s time for the Jets to move on. Giving him one last chance will simply add to the soap-opera style drama we’ve seen with this franchise the last two years. The guy was booed mercilessly in the Knicks-Celtics playoff game last night when he appeared on the big screen. The same thing will happen every time he throws a bad pass or makes a basic error. It’s passed the point of no return. Rightly or wrongly, you can’t live with that kind of atmosphere.
The Jets won’t be able to move him until next year when he becomes a free agent. A guaranteed salary of $8.25m secures his place in New York for one more season. But that doesn’t stop the Jets spending a high pick on a quarterback. The cheap cost of a rookie makes it palatable to draft a replacement at #9, #13 or #39. Look at the salaries of the players drafted in those positions last year:
#9 Luke Kuechly — 4-years, $12.58m
#13 Michael Floyd — 4-years $9.97m
#39 Janoris Jenkins — 4-years, $4.99m
Kuechly’s cap hit as a rookie in 2012 was $2.285m. That’s the kind of cost the Jets will face if they draft Sanchez’s replacement with the #9 pick. It’d be even cheaper if they waited until #13 or the top of the second round.
This has to happen. And having made that choice, they need to start bringing in some skill players to support the new quarterback. So what kind of scenario could we see?
Buffalo are picking one place above the Jets at #8. Until we hear differently, I expect the Bills to draft a quarterback with that slot. It could be Geno Smith. It could be someone else. Right now, I actually think it’ll be Matt Barkley. It’s a hunch. A hunch that a few people have. Maybe it’ll prove to be misguided, but I suspect the Bills will be one of the handful of teams that look beyond the physical limitations and see an effective game manager that can start quickly. I don’t think it’ll be a great spot for Barkley, but I can see it happening.
If they do take Barkley in that slot, the Jets should take Geno Smith. I can’t see him going to Jacksonville, Oakland or Cleveland. New York will get a shot if Buffalo passes. And they should pull the trigger.
Rather than following that up with a pass rusher or any other defensive player, they should race back to the podium and take Tavon Austin at #13. Instantly Smith gets a receiver he’s familiar with. The Jets get a difference maker, a guy who can put points on the board and make chunk yardage. Basically, something they’ve not had for a long time.
Immediately, there’s some kind of plan on offense. A spark. They can move beyond the Sanchez era. The fans in New York aren’t used to patience, but rest assured they’ll be willing to stomach growing pains for a Smith-Austin combo much more than another year of watching Mark Sanchez.
At #39, I’d continue the trend. Go after a running back (Eddie Lacy, Jonathan Franklin, Montee Ball, Christine Michael). Keep building that offense. If Lacy’s there it should be a no brainer. Geno Smith, Tavon Austin and Eddie Lacy. The Jets have an offense all of a sudden.
It basically comes down to these scenario’s for me:
If Geno Smith goes in the top eight — #9 Tavon Austin, #13 Jonathan Cooper/Chance Warmack, #39 Ryan Nassib/Matt Scott/Tyler Wilson
If Geno Smith is available — #9 Geno Smith, #13 Tavon Austin, #39 Eddie Lacy/Jonathan Franklin/Christine Michael
Sure, they’d still need a pass rusher in either scenario. They might have to coach someone up. And? Who’s to say a player like Corey Lemonier, Jamie Collins or John Simon wouldn’t be available in round three? There are still veteran pass rushers on the open market. They can also target cornerback replacements later, with Logan Ryan, Sanders Commings, Marc Anthony, Will Davis, Jordan Poyer and David Amerson providing plenty of mid-round depth in the secondary.
If they take Barkevious Mingo and D.J. Hayden at #9 and #13 they’ll be the same old Jets next year. That offense needs a revolution. Benching Sanchez and his gigantic guaranteed salary would be no different to the benching of Matt Flynn in Seattle. Costly, but necessary.
Unlike most NFL prospects, Stefan Charles did not play his college football in the United States. He starred for the University of Regina and is a native born Canadian. I briefly covered Stefan Charles in the not so distant past. It’s hard to scout Charles from his available footage, but what I saw of him in drills he looked like a special athlete. The way he moved I assumed he was 280 pounds. He played at 324, and posted a mind-blowing 37″ vertical at that weight. I bet his feet hurt.
Charles played for the same school that produced mid round defensive lineman Akiem Hicks last season. And not that it has anything to this, but it’s also the same school that Jon Ryan played for.
I like Charles quite a bit, but I’m hesitant to make a declarative opinion on him as I’ve seen so little. In terms of athleticism though, I think he’s probably one of the better options in this draft, at least on par with Montori Hughes, John Jenkins, and Brandon Williams, if not superior. If Seattle selected Charles in the 3rd round, I would not be shocked.
Duke Williams
Williams was a minor star on the Nevada Wolf Pack defense the last couple seasons. Despite being one of the lightest strong safeties in this draft (190 pounds or 203 pounds depending on who you ask), the 5’11” defender is among the biggest hitters. I doubt he’d ever dominate physically as Kam Chancellor does, but there is a lot to like about a strong safety who can run in the 4.4s and play a physical brand of football. Williams is fundamentally sound, explosive in small spaces, and a sure tackler. Not only do I think he’s likely to start in the NFL if given a real opportunity, but I could even envision him as a starter in a future pro-bowl. He’s undersized, but he has a lot of talent. He also makes a lot of “splash” plays that get noticed by fans, and he’s got quite a bit of swagger to his game.
Williams would be a good pick in the middle rounds, though I think he’s perhaps more like Jeron Johnson than Kam Chancellor, though Williams is faster than both.
Kevin McDermott
Kevin McDermott is a longsnapper. I could probably just stop there, but I’ll add one more thing: don’t do a google image search for Kevin McDermott. Unless you like that kind of thing.
Luke Batton
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIIGWFWRz8I
I was surprised when I saw Batton make the visit list. His tape is pretty good, don’t get me wrong. But at 5’10¾”, 228 pounds. He’s very undersized. He also ran a 4.74, making him one of the slower linebackers in the draft. It’s very tempting to compare Batton to Lofa Tatupu, who had similar measurables when he came out but made up for it with sound fundamental play, a burning intensity and natural leadership. Batton seems like a Tim Ruskell type pick.
Batton probably won’t be drafted. Perhaps Seattle views him as competition for Heath Farwell on special teams. Maybe they want depth at middle linebacker?
Datone Jones
I have to assume they had this visit before trading for Percy Harvin. All it really tells us is that Jones fit the profile at defensive tackle that Seattle was seeking at the time. I like Datone Jones as he has great upside- the best defensive tackles are usually very fast- so this visit instills confidence that Seattle is looking in the right places on the defensive line.
Tyrann Mathieu
Aside from having an ongoing drug problem and having the fashion style of some generic bad guy from Streets of Rage or Final Fight, there are sane reasons why Seattle would use one of their team visits on the troubled defensive back. Consider this interview he gave back in January. It may not be entirely coherent, but you can sense a heart for the game in Mathieu’s words and a passion to pursue an NFL dream. By bringing Mathieu in and talking to him face to face, they might get a better feel for whether he’s capable of growing out of his drug problems and immaturity. Having Mathieu in doesn’t necessarily mean Seattle has interest; if anything it’s a means to gauge interest.
I consider myself neutral on Mathieu. I never bought into his hype during his Heisman nominated 2011 season, but I didn’t jump on the hater bandwagon when his problems surfaced in 2012, either.
As a prospect, I think he’s probably worth a 4th round grade, at best. Even during his 2011 season, most of his big plays were fumbles that slipped out inexplicably or bounced right into his hands. Am I to believe that he has a talent for making offensive players play badly, or making the football bounce right into his hands? He also had quite a few impact kick returns with what turned out to be so-so speed (Mathieu ran an official 4.50). It’s unlikely that he’ll continue to be a difference maker in the return game against NFL teams, especially since I think his field speed looks slower than his combine forty would indicate.
You take away those big plays, which seemed more fortunate than forced, and you are left with a close to average defensive back, in my opinion. A defensive back that stands just 5’8¾”. Out of 60 defensive backs that attended the combine, only Greg Reid from Florida State measured shorter. Seattle proved with the Antoine Winfield signing and their alleged interest in Robert Alford that height is not an absolute requirement, though Winfield plays with more physicality than most six foot corners do.
Mathieu relies on arm tackles too much, and while he plays physical, the lack of size and strength shows up on tape and I think could be an area where he gets exposed in the NFL. There are also times when he seems to shy from contact on runners that are going full speed. He’s nothing amazing in coverage, and looks like he’d get eaten alive against big receivers with jump ball skills. Mathieu’s speed is actually below the median in this cornerback class, too.
Mathieu is not a terrible player. He was a solid college player that was overhyped because he was involved in a lot of splashy big plays. I guess my worry with Mathieu is that he’ll suffer from the NFL jump more than most players would because he’s already playing at his physical ceiling, and even at that level I’m not left seeing stars. Slightly above average college players become career backups in the NFL unless they have remaining physical upside to tap into.
Even if I am wrong and Mathieu finds a way to improve his game enough to offset the jump to the NFL, he will almost certainly be a nickle corner only with a profile like his. Remember how tiny Kelly Jennings seemed when covering big outside receivers? Kelly Jennings was 5’11”.
Notice how I’ve barely talked about Mathieu’s drug problem? This is why I wouldn’t be terribly shocked if Mathieu went undrafted. Reputation may matter to fans and to awards ceremonies, but it doesn’t matter to scouts. All scouts see is a good college player with very little untapped upside, a low NFL ceiling, and massive character risk. If he’s drafted before the 4th round, I’d consider it an upset.
Brendan Melanophy
6’0¾”. 209 pounds. 4.56 in the forty. Played strong safety.
I think the video above tells you all you need to know. The video, a “highlight tape”, is dominated by special teams plays. Fans that make highlight videos almost never include special teams plays, because fans usually don’t care about them. So why are they in there? It’s specifically to appeal to NFL franchises searching for a special teams ace. As soon as I noticed how special teams heavy the video was, I immediately checked to see who posted the video. It was posted by Brendan Melanophy. Yup, it all makes sense.
I hope that didn’t sound condescending, because I like what Melanophy brings and I like the implied sense of humility that he’ll do what it takes to make it in the NFL. Seattle has had one of the best special teams units every single year under Pete Carroll and a big reason for that is how he values special teams specialists on his roster. Seattle also needs more roster churn at strong safety, and Melanophy has the size and physicality that Seattle likes in the defensive backfield. I doubt Seattle would draft Brendan Melanophy, but he’d be a good get in undrafted free agency and bringing him in for a visit helps Seattle’s chances.
Latavius Murray
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJvCTzM2c0E
Similar to Jeremy Wright, Murray has a lot of length (meaning he has long legs), which I generally consider a drawback for a running back. I wasn’t a big fan of David Wilson last year because his long legs robbed him of short area quickness despite having top shelf straight line speed. Murray is a similar story. In tight spaces he looks almost geriatric. But on a swing pass with plenty of green ahead of him his speed becomes plainly evident.
I’m not a fan based on his tape, but it’s hard to argue with Seattle’s interest. Murray is just a shade under 6’3″, weighing 223 pounds, and he ran a 4.38 at his pro-day. He also posted a 36″ vertical and 10’6″ broad jump, both of which are excellent for his size. He’d make an interesting receiver convert, if that’s the angle Seattle is taking.
Ryan Otten
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bWctRkdlKA
Standing 6’5″ but just 230 pounds, Ryan Otten is probably the lightest draftable tight end in this draft class, with even featherweight Jordan Reed beating him by six pounds. That probably explains why Otten has the physique of an Ed McCaffrey. Otten did post a 4.64 forty time at his pro-day, making him one of the faster “tight ends” in this draft, though he’s probably more natural as a big receiver at this point.
If Seattle does view Otten as a tight end, it would hint towards them favoring a pure H-back. If so, that would make Jordan Reed a player to keep a close eye on in rounds 2-4.
Quinton Patton
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G23YpSkbn0s
A couple months back I watched every game compilation I could find of Patton, and to be honest, I thought he was the most vanilla receiver in this draft on tape.
But now I’m watching his highlight videos as due diligence, and I’m surprised by what I’m seeing. Sure, highlight videos are not ideal as a scouting tool, but I’m seeing athleticism and eye popping displays that never showed themselves in the game compilations I watched. Is it possible I just drew a bad sample? Because his highlights (as well as his interviews) paint the picture of anything but a vanilla receiver.
I think Seattle’s interest in Patton is almost certainly legitimate, and I doubt they’d bring him in for a visit if they had a 4th round grade on him. They’d be fortunate if Patton reached their selection in round two, and they’d have to know that.
Patton has good but not elite size (6’0, 204), and he has good but not great speed (4.53). Patton does display excellent concentration skills and body control, and he has good moves after the catch which helps compensate for his ordinary speed, making him a comparable prospect to Keenan Allen.
Though on paper Patton profiles as an NFL average #2 receiver, players like Darrell Jackson and Greg Jennings have posted multiple 1000 yard seasons with near identical measurables and skill sets. Both Jackson and Jennings excelled in west coast offenses due to being great route runners with a strong grasp of the fundamentals. Patton possesses those skills as well.
This leads me to the one thing I actually really like about Patton: his intangibles. His personality has a spark to it that reminds me of Richard Sherman. Playfully cocksure. The jump to the NFL is notoriously difficult; having confidence and self-belief can make a big difference in how far a prospect makes it.
His game tape may be bland, but his highlights impress and his personality makes me want to believe. Though he lacks elite speed, and isn’t tall enough to be a Sidney Rice type, I’d say he definitely fits the John Schneider profile as he has very good yards after catch ability and has excellent possession receiver skills. He also has the kind of playful yet driven attitude that fits in perfectly with Pete Carroll’s team dynamic.
This is the most unpredictable draft I think we’ll see for a good few years. I suspect we’ll have the greatest disparity between teams on a pick-by-pick basis. And that’s leading to a lot of speculation.
There’s going to be very little consensus on a lot of these players and positional groups. There’s going to be a lot more picking for scheme or physical preference. And that’ll make virtually every pick unmissable this week.
It starts right at #1. I’m actually hoping we don’t see any leaks before Thursday. Contract negotiations usually begin in the week between the prospect likely to go first overall and the team picking in that spot. In every draft I’ve ever covered, we’ve known the guy going #1 weeks in advance. Not this year. It’d be pretty cool to see the top picked called out without the usual reveal before hand. We’ll see if that happens.
Tony Pauline is reporting today that some members of the Chiefs’ staff prefer Eric Fisher over Luke Joeckel. For me, Fisher has the higher ceiling. Yet he hasn’t faced anywhere near the same level of competition. Jason Smith had a similar amount of upside (#2 overall in 2009) and struggled to make the step up. Given the choice between the two, I go for Joeckel. Solid, dependable, you know what you’re going to get. He’s faced some of the best pass rushers in college football (SEC and Big-12) and excelled.
The piece I’ve linked to above is basically yet another bashing of the quarterback market. I’ll say this — don’t assume Geno Smith is the first quarterback off the board. When we’re talking about personal preference, this is the position where it matters the most.
A case in point… from what I am led to believe (take that for what it’s worth) a lot of teams would’ve drafted Blaine Gabbert #1 overall in 2011 over Cam Newton (at least those who desperately needed a quarterback). I also believe one of the teams who preferred Gabbert over Newton was Seattle. With hindsight, nobody would second-guess Carolina’s pick. Yet in many other scenarios, Gabbert goes #1 two years ago.
In the same draft, Tennessee took Jake Locker #8 overall when a lot of other teams had him ranked way down in the mid-round range. I believe Washington would’ve loved to get Locker at #10, but rejected the chance to draft Gabbert as an alternative. And Minnesota liked the class enough to tick guys off and still take Christian Ponder at #12 — a player others didn’t rate anywhere near as highly.
That doesn’t mean this will happen all over again and we’ll see a host of quarterbacks flying off the board. But don’t be surprised if the order in which the quarterbacks are drafted contradicts what we’ve been hearing in the media for the last few weeks.
More than half the league might rank Matt Barkley in round two or lower. And he might still be a top ten pick on Thursday. He could be Buffalo’s guy. Do not be shocked. Yeah the cold weather. Blah blah. Ryan Nassib used to play for Doug Marrone. It’s a fair point. Some teams — and I include the Bills here — are going to see value in Barkley. His ability to start quickly, be an intelligent leader from the get-go and facilitate the playmakers in Buffalo. He’ll need more at receiver, but there will be options in round two and three. The Bills can become competitive in the AFC East quickly with solid quarterback play. I can see this happening.
Geno Smith might be the consensus top quarterback as McGinn’s study reports, but he might go lower than expected — just like Gabbert. And players like Nassib and E.J. Manuel — despite having limited ability on tape — might also find they go earlier than we expect, in the same way Ponder did two years ago.
Pick your poison. That’s what teams do. And if you think you’ve found the guy you can win with, you’re not worrying about a talking head in the media saying that same guy is a ‘fourth round pick’ or whatever silliness we’ve heard this off-season.
On defense, Tank Carradine had his work out today, as he continues to return from an ACL injury. Chris Mortensen has the details…
Florida St DE Tank Carradine, 135 days post-ACL surgery after 11 sack yr, had good private workout for teams: 4.75-4.85 in 40 at 273 lbs
I’m not a huge fan of Carradine, unlike some others. He might prove to be one of those players who just has a natural knack of getting to the quarterback. Maybe. Yet I think he has a lot of ‘easy’ sacks on tape and I’m always sceptical of pass rushers out of Florida State. I’m not sure he or Bjoern Werner will go on to have great careers in the NFL.
Carradine tries to swipe away blockers and side step to the edge. He doesn’t mix it up or use a great speed rush and his hand-use could be better. I’d challenge my tackle to let him dip inside and run into traffic. Show him the inside route to the quarterback. I don’t think he has the speed to capitalise on that and could end up looking pretty pedestrian if you take away his swipe move. He doesn’t explode out of the blocks. He has got a good motor though and prototype size.
My top three at #56 remain the same for now:
1. Khaseem Greene
2. Quinton Patton
3. Christine Michael
However, this is assuming there’s going to be a rush on offensive and defensive tackles, limiting the options for Seattle. I’m going to re-watch some Sio Moore tape tonight. Of course, you never know who might fall or what the Seahawks are planning. I could just as easily see them going for a Vance McDonald — athletic, out-there, Seahawky. Only a few more days to wait and find out.
Have you ever seen the back of a football, on weed?
According to Davis Hsu, Seattle met with 7 of their 10 eventual 2012 draft picks before the draft took place. Here is an unofficial list of players Seattle has brought in for visits or met with so far in 2013 (special thanks to Scott Allen and Chris F):
Matt Scott, QB, Arizona
Jeremy Wright, RB, Louisville
Russell Shepard, WR, LSU
Martel Moore, WR, Northern Illinois
Aaron Mellette, WR, Elon
Tyrone Goard, WR, Eastern Kentucky
Rufus Johnson, DE, Tarleton State
Stefan Charles, DT, Regina
Duke Williams, S, Nevada
Kevin McDermott, LS, UCLA
Luke Batton, LB, Kent State
Datone Jones, DL, UCLA
Tyrann Mathieu, DB, LSU
Brendan Melanophy, DB, Fordham
Latavius Murray, RB, Central Florida
Ryan Otten, TE, San Jose State
Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech
David Quessenberry, OL, San Jose State
Sheldon Richardson, DL, Missouri
Eric Rogers, WR, Cal Lutheran
Michael Williams, TE, Alabama
Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas
Dontra Peters, CB, New Hampshire
Craig Wilkins, LB, Old Dominion
Perez Ashford, WR, Northern Illinois
Kyle Juszczyk, FB, Harvard
Mike Catapano, DE, Princeton
Ryan Jensen, OL, Colorado State
BJ Daniels, QB, South Florida
Jeremy Harris, CB, New Mexico State
Quinn Sharp, K/P, Oklahoma State
Brian Watkins, CB, Oregon State
Michael Brooks, DT, East Carolina
Ryan Robertson, QB, Central Washington
Justin Veltung, WR, Idaho
Zac Dysert, QB, Miami-Ohio
Anthony Watkins, SS, Oregon State
Greg Herd, WR, Eastern Washington
Semsi Tokolahi, DT, Washington
Justin Glenn, FS, Washington
Isaac Remington, DT, Oregon
Cooper Taylor, SS, Richmond
Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M
Additional players who were approached by a Seahawks scout (that I know of):
Brice Butler, WR (CB), San Diego State
Denard Robinson, RB/WR, Michigan
Sylvester Williams, DT, NC State
Armonty Bryant, DE, East Central
…
That’s a pretty long list of names, and I’m sure there are many other players that Seattle met with that went unreported. Overall, this list is mostly made up of players that are very likely to go undrafted, which is fairly typical as far as team visits go. Teams prioritize projected undrafted free agents with visits so that they can build relationships which hopefully give them an edge when the signing frenzy begins after the draft concludes.
Of course, there are plenty of draftable names on this list too. I won’t write a book on every one of them, but here are some quick thoughts as I rattle down the list:
Matt Scott:
I’ve been saying since last September (mostly at Seahawks.net) that Matt Scott was someone to keep an eye on. He made a very strong impression on me immediately last season with his quickness, arm talent, and improvisational ability. It’s true that in some ways he’s a little Colin Kaepernick mixed with a little Russell Wilson, but I feel a better expectation level might be something like Seneca Wallace or Aaron Brooks.
The tools are there, but he has some mental inconsistency and decision making issues. I don’t know if that’s related to inexperience or if he’s just got a low ceiling as a decision maker. Like Wallace and Brooks, Scott is a good improviser despite making dumb choices too often. To be fair, it’s not ideal to judge a prospect from his first year as a full time starter. Perhaps he can be coached into being a smarter player.
Scott doesn’t have a good frame for taking hits and was constantly injured last season. He’s one of the toughest quarterback’s you’ll ever see, gutting through an entire season banged up, even puking on the sidelines before running back out there on one occasion.
Scott has a natural point guard at quarterback skillset, he has elite quickness and good speed. He has excellent arm talent. Yet he needs time to develop as he lacks experience. He fits Seattle’s criteria about as perfectly as he can, so I’m not surprised at all to see the Seahawks bring him in for a workout. Reports were that Scott nailed that workout in Seattle which helped elevate his stock with teams across the league. Ultimately, I think Scott will leave the board before the Seahawks are comfortable drafting a backup quarterback. However, should he last longer than expected the Seahawks could become significant players for his services.
Jeremy Wright:
All I’ve seen of Wright is what there was to glean from the Khaseem Greene video that Rob linked earlier this week. Based on that, I’d say that he looks like a fringe NFL RB that could stick to the back end of a roster for a few years. He not very elusive but has a lot of length and power. He doesn’t dance behind the line of scrimmage- he just hits the hole and gets what he can. The immediate comparison I thought of was Vick Ballard. Ballard averaged just 3.9 yards per carry last season, but ended up being the Colts’ featured back anyway. Seattle isn’t as desperate for a starting running back as Indy is, to say the least, so I think Wright would probably be more of a bubble player on our roster.
Russell Shepard:
You can never have too many players named Russell right?
Shepard is a terrific athlete who looks like Percy Harvin in the above highlight clip. LSU lined him up at both running back and reciever to capitalize on his rare athleticism (4.5 forty at 6’1″, 38.5″ vertical jump) and for his ability to make tacklers miss. Shepard never really broke into LSU’s offense as a full time player, though it’s not uncommon for LSU backups to end up NFL players.
What I find most interesting about Shepard is that apparently he was approached by six different teams asking if he could convert to defensive back despite never playing the position before. Given that Seattle found great success with Stanford receiver convert Richard Sherman and has approached Brice Butler with the same proposal, it’s not unthinkable that Seattle could have been one of those six teams to view Shepard as a potential defensive back.
Martel Moore:
I used a goofy picture of Moore in the header and paired it with a Half Baked reference, but in all seriousness, his tape looks pretty good. On a side note, NIU quarterback Jordan Lynch will probably persuade some interest from the Seahawkswhen he’s done at NIU.
Aaron Mellette:
I’m not surprised Mellette got a visit. Being 6’3″ while running a 4.45 will get Seattle’s attention for their desired depth behind Sidney Rice. He also has long arms and big hands. His tape isn’t great, but Seattle isn’t afraid to gamble on coachable players with tools.
Tyrone Goard:
It’s not everyday you see a receiver who’s 6’7″. Goard also ran his forty in the 4.5s. He’s got a lot in common with Lavasier Tuinei, a guy Seattle brought in during undrafted free agency last year.
Rufus Johnson:
Another “man amongst boys” prospect from the lower divisions, similar to Armonty Bryant or Luke Marquandt. Rufus Johnson is highly comparable to physical defensive ends with untapped upside such as Lavar Edwards, Joe Kruger, and Maliciah Goodman, though Johnson is likely to be drafted several rounds later than those guys, if he’s drafted at all. Johnson also impresses in this interview posted on youtube. It’s hard to project small school players, but there is a lot to like about Rufus Johnson. I’m a fan.
I might do this a couple of times before next week, but I just woke up today and wanted to change my mock. So I did. And here it is minus the graphics:
#1 Kansas City – Luke Joeckel
#2 Jacksonville – Dion Jordan
#3 Oakland – Sharrif Floyd
#4 Philadelphia – Eric Fisher
#5 Detroit – Lane Johnson
#6 Cleveland – Dee Milliner
#7 Arizona – D.J. Fluker
#8 Buffalo – Matt Barkley
#9 New York Jets – Tavon Austin
#10 Tennessee – Jonathan Cooper
#11 San Diego – Star Lotulelei
#12 Miami – Ziggy Ansah
#13 New York Jets – Geno Smith
#14 Carolina – Sheldon Richardson
#15 New Orleans – Barkevious Mingo
#16 St. Louis – Kenny Vaccaro
#17 Pittsburgh – Jarvis Jones
#18 Dallas – Chance Warmack
#19 New York Giants – Datone Jones
#20 Chicago – Tyler Eifert
#21 Cincinnati – Alec Ogletree
#22 St. Louis Justin Pugh
#23 Minnesota – Bjoern Werner
#24 Indianapolis – Desmond Trufant
#25 Minnesota – Manti Te’o
#26 Green Bay – Jesse Williams
#27 Houston – Robert Woods
#28 Denver – Sly Williams
#29 New England – Arthur Brown
#30 Atlanta – D.J. Hayden
#31 San Francisco – Matt Elam
#32 Baltimore – Margus Hunt
So yeah, that’s a offensive lineman going early. Part of this thought is based on what Tony Pauline reported last night. Part of it is me wondering why Miami are suddenly being aggressive in pursuit of Brandon Albert. One logical reason is if they don’t even think they can secure D.J. Fluker (the fourth best tackle apparently) without moving up, why not spend one of those two second round picks on Albert? That makes sense. Trading up likely costs them one of those picks anyway if they want to get into the top 5-6. It could be the reason they’re looking into that deal with a little more aggression all of a sudden.
Here’s a version containing a handful of trades (traded picks are in bold):
#1 Kansas City – Luke Joeckel
#2 Jacksonville – Dion Jordan
#3 Oakland – Sharrif Floyd
#4 Philadelphia – Eric Fisher
#5 Detroit – Lane Johnson #6 Atlanta (from Cleveland) – Dee Milliner
#7 Arizona – D.J. Fluker
#8 Buffalo – Matt Barkley
#9 New York Jets – Tavon Austin
#10 Tennessee – Jonathan Cooper
#11 San Diego – Star Lotulelei #12 Dallas (from Miami) – Sheldon Richardson
#13 New York Jets – Geno Smith
#14 Carolina – D.J. Hayden
#15 New Orleans – Ziggy Ansah
#16 St. Louis – Kenny Vaccaro
#17 Pittsburgh – Jarvis Jones #18 Miami – Tyler Eifert
#19 New York Giants – Datone Jones
#20 Chicago – Chance Warmack #21 Indianapolis (from Cincinnati) – Desmond Trufant
#22 St. Louis Justin Pugh
#23 Minnesota – Bjoern Werner #24 Cincinnati – Alec Ogletree
#25 Minnesota – Manti Te’o
#26 Green Bay – Jesse Williams
#27 Houston – Robert Woods
#28 Denver – Sly Williams
#29 New England – Arthur Brown #30 Cleveland – Blidi Wreh-Wilson
#31 San Francisco – Matt Elam #32 Philadelphia (from Baltimore) – E.J. Manuel
In terms of Seattle, I’m still struggling to identify the defensive tackle who would interest them at #56. I really can’t find that guy. I’m not sold they’ll take Kawann Short if he’s there. They want length, size, run stopping abilities. Who is that? I think it’s going to be a struggle to see them target this particular need in round two. Short, Brandon Williams, John Jenkins — I’m not sure any of that trio will fit the bill in terms of what they’re looking for.
The two players I keep coming back to — for now — are Quinton Patton and Khaseem Greene. I think personality wise they fit like a glove. They’re both ultra competitive types who will light up a meeting room. Greene takes the field immediately and would quickly establish himself as a leader on the defense. Patton would be forward planning, albeit not an immediate need. Neither is a brilliant, dynamic athlete. However, we can get caught up a little bit too much with that sometimes. First and foremost I sense the Seahawks want competitive players who will ’tilt the field’. And it’s not like these two are lethargic sloth’s who sail around the field at a snails pace. Patton has certainly grown on me the more tape I’ve watched. He’s not an incredibly consistent production machine, but he’s got a spark to his game. A playmaking spark.
(Update) I’ve just watched the Utah State vs Louisiana Tech game from last year to watch Patton again. Will Davis the corner at Utah State did as good a job covering him as anyone I’ve seen so far. I’ve not watched any of his game’s specifically. That’s a guy I need to look at before next week. He’s from Spokane, too.
I can see a situation where a lot of other guys leave the board and Christine Michael becomes a greater option. I suspect they’d like to stock pile running backs. The offense will continue to feature the run prominently. At USC Pete Carroll found a way to do that by bringing in 5-star recruits and letting them share snaps. I could be wrong, but that might be an idea they return to in Seattle. Marshawn Lynch is an elite runner, but he won’t last very long under his current heavy workload. If the right player was available, I think they’d take him and feel pretty happy about it.
I also think they’ll look at the offensive line and it really depends who’s there. We might see a bit of a run on the group in the early second round. Kyle Long, Terron Armstead, Menelik Watson. If they go early, it maybe limits the options that fall to #56. They might feel like they can get some tackle depth later on with players like Luke Marquardt, Brennan Williams or Jordan Mills. Or who knows, maybe another defensive tackle from NC State they can convert to the offense?
I agree with those suggesting there’s likely to be a quick run on cornerbacks and running backs in round two. It seems like almost a formality based on the needs of teams picking in the first quarter of day two.
The Seahawks re-signed Steven Hauschka today. That perhaps makes it less likely they add a kicker in the draft.
And what about later on for Seattle? Jayson Dimanche is an intriguing prospect based on the video below. Remember – this is a highlight session and not tape. It’s also against a certain level of competition. But he gives off a ‘Seahawks’ vibe. One to monitor, perhaps…
John Schneider held a press conference yesterday to discuss the Antoine Winfield signing and look ahead to next week. Understandably he gave little away regarding this years draft. He did say it was unlikely the team would trade back into the first round and he didn’t give off a vibe that suggested he’d move up at all. He also played down talk of the team having fewer needs this year and how that would impact the way the team is approaching the draft.
The most interesting nugget of information was the talk of 2010. Schneider admitted they went into that first draft in Seattle with a little anxiety. They needed to get a left tackle, but were unsure who they would land. He name-checked Trent Williams, Russell Okung and Charles Brown.
I found the Brown mention interesting and re-assuring. A former USC tackle, he looked like an ideal fit for the Alex Gibbs zone blocking scheme. Tall, athletic, strong in pass protection and keen to get to the second level. I watched many USC games trying to get an angle on the guy and gave him a top-15 grade in the end. There weren’t many players I enjoyed watching more than Charles Brown in 2010.
Both myself and Kip had been given the nod by a little birdie that the team wanted to come out of the 2010 draft with a starting safety and a left tackle. I’m led to believe that at one point there was a feeling Trent Williams could be available at #14 — possibly allowing the team to target Eric Berry at #6. Williams wasn’t considered a top-five lock until the combine. He significantly boosted his stock in Indianapolis and never really looked back. That kind of ended any chance he would come to Seattle and he was subsequently drafted fourth overall by Washington.
When Brown dropped deep into the second round (#64 overall to New Orleans) I was a little surprised, but more cursing my own apparent poor judgement that he could be a first round alternative in Seattle. Then it was revealed he’d got some lingering injury concerns that provoked the fall. So at least there was that.
Hearing yesterday that he was on the teams radar was reassuring (and yes, I appreciate how self-indulgent this article is to this point).
He might not have necessarily been an option at #14, but then Schneider has touched on the chance they had to move down in round one. Things worked out perfectly for Seattle in that they got their tackle (Okung) and safety (Earl Thomas) and both players have since featured at the Pro-Bowl. It’s fun to consider the alternative scenario though. Had Kansas City passed on Eric Berry, he could easily have been the pick at #6. His talent factor would’ve probably won-out over going tackle at that spot. And that could’ve put Brown on the map, even if his NFL career so far has been pretty stop-start.
Schneider has been pretty forthcoming in discussing previous drafts recently. It wasn’t that long ago he name-checked Jabaal Sheard and Andy Dalton as alternative options with the #25 pick in 2011.
Looking back now, could you imagine a Seahawks roster with Dalton under center, Charles Brown at left tackle, Berry and not Thomas in the secondary and a couple of other tweaks here and there. It’s far from a ridiculous scenario.
Some other headlines from the press conference:
– No real news on Chris Clemons yet. Schneider described him as a fast healer, but says the PUP list is still an option.
– Schneider called James Carpenter the “strongest” player on the roster and says confidence is a key factor for the former first round pick as he recovers from another injury setback.
– Brady Quinn is described as a “football junkie”. The Seahawks feel he’ll work well with Russell Wilson.
– Schneider says they don’t go best player available if current projected starters force the board in a different direction. Essentially, it’s a more scientific way of saying that sometimes ‘need’ has an impact on the way things shape out. A lot of teams gives their own players grades and then match it up to the draft board to see where they can make the greatest improvements.
In other news…
It appears Miami are trying to get a trade done with Kansas City for Branden Albert. Once again, the Dolphins front office makes a completely baffling move. They let Jake Long walk because they didn’t want to pay him, and will now have to pay Albert the same (if not more) all while coughing up a second round pick.
There’s a reason why some franchises are perennial struggler’s. Hey, Albert’s not a bad tackle. I just think you’ve got an opportunity to spend three early picks and nail down your left tackle to the long term. Instead, you throw money at a one-dimensional receiver in Mike Wallace and two linebackers. You franchise tag Randy Starks. And you let Long sign in St. Louis. Now you have to scramble around to get Albert with one of those high picks instead of rebuilding the secondary.
There doesn’t appear to be much of a thought process in Miami. Kind of like someone shouts out, “Let’s do this!” and everyone dances a jig. The New England Patriots must sit there every year, look at the rest of their division and let out an enormous belly laugh.
Mike Mayock did a conference call today where he expressed the opinion that Geno Smith would be a poor fit in Buffalo. He was talking strictly about the weather, a view which I’m not a huge fan of. Even after his neck injury, Peyton Manning didn’t appear to suffer any kind of drop off playing in Denver compared to the indoor facilities in Indianapolis. But then I guess he is Peyton Manning.
Even so, it makes you consider the possibility of Smith falling past the #8 pick.
Would the New York Jets double up with the West Virginia quarterback and his former wide-out Tavon Austin? Assuming they complete a trade with Tampa Bay for Darrelle Revis. I’d be more tempted to go after Stedman Bailey later on – a player who went to high school with Smith and shared a lot of chemistry at WVU.
If Geno falls beyond the top ten he could sink like a stone. It could help trigger a quarterback rush in the late first and early second. That wouldn’t be such a bad thing for Seattle, as it increases the chances of other players falling to #56.
A report surfaced recently suggesting a hotel room belonging to two players at the combine had been trashed. Adam Schefter is reporting today that the room belonged to receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Mark Harrison.
The NFL has managed to keep the wonderlic scores under wraps for the most part this off-season. However, that has been one leak today. Tavon Austin apparently scored a 7 on the test.
Could this man be an option for the Seahawks at #56?
This is my penultimate mock draft. My final projection will be next Wednesday, the night before the first round begins. That is also the projection I’ll be sending to the ‘Huddle Report’ so I can secure 93rd position again this year.
Seattle’s pick at #56 works alongside the seven-round mock I created for the team a few days ago. There are more immediate needs than receiver, but most of the top WILL prospects were off the board and several of the defensive tackles had gone too. It’s worth remembering that Golden Tate is a free agent in 2014 and Sidney Rice’s contract doesn’t shrink in the same way Zach Miller’s does. So while receiver isn’t an immediate need, there could be some forward planning here — particularly if a prospect they really like is available.
I’d also highlight the way Green Bay seem to constantly re-load at receiver, something John Schneider might have latched onto.
The Seahawks need to pick their battle’s. They’re going to need to start paying some members of the existing roster. They’re going to have very little cap room to play with as a consequence. Players like Richard Sherman and Russell Wilson by theory could be easier to sign if they continue their elite-level performance. You pay them as the best players at their respective positions. It’s guys like Golden Tate that become harder to judge.
What is he worth to Seattle? Or the rest of the league? On the one hand he’s become very close to Wilson and had a breakout year in 2012. He made some big plays and helped the Seahawks to some key victories. He’s become a household name because of the whole ‘Fail Mary’ incident. Yet his greatest season of production in the NFL is 688 yards and seven touchdowns.
Another team might be willing to pay him as a ‘name’ player — and we’ve seen a handful of receivers get overpaid in the last two years. It could be very difficult for the Seahawks to justify making a deal unless he has a tremendous 2013.
Rice is due a cap hit of $9.7m this year, a further $9.7m in 2014 and $10.2m in 2015. If he stays healthy and productive, then it’s not such an issue. Yet he’s earning true #1 money and if he does miss further time or surrenders some of his production to Percy Harvin, can you justify such a massive contract? Again, it’s a moot point if he succeeds this year, just like Tate. If he doesn’t, he might be a necessary sacrifice in order to keep others on the roster.
The Seahawks are essentially paying two guys (Harvin and Rice) elite contracts at the position, while also giving their starting tight end (Miller) a hefty sum. I’m not sure going forward they’ll want to be pumping that much money into their receivers. Being smart in the draft is key here, because they also don’t want to stunt Russell Wilson’s growth or diminish the talent level of his targets.
Being able to plan ahead, save money where possible and maintain quality is crucial. There’s no room for sentiment. So while receiver isn’t a great defining need this season, it might be a wise move for the long haul to look at a guy like Quinton Patton in round two.
First round
#1 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
They’re keeping their cards close to their chest. Some believe it could be Eric Fisher.
#2 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
They need a pass rusher. Pure and simple.
#3 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
This will be a long rebuild.
#4 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan)
Even if they are getting guys back from injury, Philly’s line hasn’t been good enough for a while.
#5 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU)
Plenty of options here for Detroit. Ansah, Milliner, Johnson. What about Tavon Austin?
#6 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
If they get Milliner, they can feel pretty good about this off-season.
#7 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
This is far and away the teams biggest need following the Carson Palmer trade.
#8 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia)
They could move up to make sure they get Smith. They can’t rely on Kevin Kolb.
#9 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
They need a spark on offense.
#10 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
Too many people are saying this will be a guard, despite the addition of Andy Levitre.
#11 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
With the top left tackles off the board, they’re forced to look elsewhere.
#12 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
A lot of men in that Miami front office like road grader-style tackles.
#13 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
It seems certain this pick will be traded by Tampa Bay for Darrelle Revis.
#14 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
Fantastic value for Carolina if this happens.
#15 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
Local connections plus they need a pass rusher.
#16 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
Safety could be a target area.
#17 Jarvis Jones (OLB, Georgia)
He could sink in a bad way, but he is the prototype fit at outside linebacker in Pittsburgh’s scheme.
#18 Sly Williams (DT, North Carolina)
Switching to a 4-3 could put a fair amount of emphasis on the DT position.
#19 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
Terrific little player.
#20 Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
I have a feeling they’ll still be open to drafting a tight end this early.
#21 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)
Someone will bit. It’s not like Cincy hasn’t made moves like this in the past.
#22 Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
They must have a physical runner in this division.
#23 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
Consistent but not an explosive athlete.
#24 Justin Pugh (G, Syracuse)
A huge need for the Colts.
#25 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
They hit on Rudolph and Harrison, so why not go back for the Notre Dame hat-trick?
#26 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
It’s easy to forget just how much San Francisco abused Green Bay’s defense in the playoffs.
#27 Robert Woods (WR, USC)
Receiver looks like a strong option here.
#28 Tank Carradine (DE, Florida State)
The Elvis Dumervil saga leaves them needing another pass rusher.
#29 Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise State)
Gives off a Bill Belichick-pick vibe.
#30 Datone Jones (DE, UCLA)
They could move up to do this.
#31 Matt Elam (S, Florida)
Hard-hitting safety, would look good in this defense.
#32 Margus Hunt (DE, SMU)
Who knows where this guy will be drafted? This isn’t out of the question.
Second round
#33 Jacksonville – Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
#34 San Francisco – Johnthan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#35 Philadelphia – E.J. Manuel (QB, Florida State)
#36 Detroit – Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington)
#37 Cincinnati – Jonathan Franklin (RB, UCLA)
#38 Arizona – Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
#39 New York Jets – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
#40 Tennessee – Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
#41 Buffalo – Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
#42 Miami – Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
#43 Tampa Bay – D.J. Hayden (CB, Houston)
#44 Carolina – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#45 San Diego – Terron Armstead (T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff)
#46 St. Louis – Kyle Long (G, Oregon)
#47 Dallas – Travis Frederick (C, Wisconsin)
#48 Pittsburgh – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#49 New York Giants – Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)
#50 Chicago – Larry Warford (G, Kentucky)
#51 Washington – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#52 Minnesota – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#53 Cincinnati – Eric Reid (S, LSU)
#54 Miami – Jonathan Cyprien (S, Florida International)
#55 Green Bay – DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
#56 Seattle – Quinton Patton (WR, Louisiana Tech)
#57 Houston – John Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
#58 Denver – Christine Michael (RB, Texas A&M)
#59 New England – Sio Moore (LB, Connecticut)
#60 Atlanta – Darius Slay (CB, Mississippi State)
#61 San Francisco – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#62 Baltimore – Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
Other Seahawks picks: R3 – RB Denard Robinson, R4 – DT Montori Hughes, R5 – T Luke Marquardt, R5 – LB Zaviar Gooden, R6 – DT Stefan Charles, R7 – K Dustin Hopkins, R7 – WR/CB Russell Shepard, R7 – B.J. Daniels, R7 – TE Michael Williams
I’ll be honest, I’ve been pretty surprised by some of the comments I’ve read on the blog this week.
I kind of feel like there’s been a re-writing of history. As the Seahawks have succeeded in building a terrific young roster, we’ve also discovered quite a substantial revelation. Some people knew it all along.
No crystal ball. No message imprinted on the morning toast. No signal from the gods. Just pure, footballing brilliance.
I had to delete the following comment — which is a shame, given the author is quite clearly a genius: “I advocated for the Seahawks to draft him and after the draft, I stated *for a fact* that Russell Wilson would be our starting quarterback and would most probably be our starting quarterback for the next ten or fifteen years.”
It’s funny that I didn’t recall that message twelve months ago. A lot of people liked Russell Wilson. Perhaps none more so than our very own Kip Earlywine. In fact if you’re ever thinking of running for president, Russell, you might want to see if Kip will run your campaign. He’d do a good job if last year was anything to go by.
Yet I think it’s fair to say most others shared my slightly different opinion. I saw Wilson’s height as an issue and I couldn’t see beyond that. It was a titanic error on my behalf, yet an understandable one. I was blinkered by conventional wisdom, unwilling to think outside of set guidelines as to what does and doesn’t work in the NFL. I was one of those old farts in the film ‘Moneyball’ telling Brad Pitt how to do his job in the war room.
It’s why I wrote this piece in August, laying out why I’d got it wrong on Wilson. I made the following statement after the Kansas City pre-season game:
“As good as Kip looks because of his sound judgement, I’m not afraid to admit I didn’t do a good enough job looking at Wilson. We published some tape, broke it down and I answered the occasional question, but he clearly warranted more than that. We’ve seen that in pre-season and in two weeks time he could be a starting NFL quarterback. It’s not so much missing on a player because you can’t expect to get them all right, but having dedicated so much time to the quarterback position in general… Wilson deserved more time.”
I think it’d be fair to say a lot of fans probably share that sentiment in hindsight. The height factor was such a turn-off, we all literally turned off.
Thankfully, there are people in our midst to remind us that they knew all along Wilson would be fantastic (see anonymous commenter above). We should celebrate that fact. They are clearly really great individuals when it comes to the old football analysis.
Sarcasm aside, there is a wider point to this piece. I feel like we’ve begun to talk in very ‘matter of fact’ terms. I’ve seen a lot of comments where people have stated a certain player “won’t” be drafted. Funnily enough, the guy who was so bold to tell us he’d always known Wilson would be a roaring success also posted on the same day, “There is no way in God’s green earth that the Seahawks will select Christine Michael – and that’s a fact, whether you like it or not.”
I’ve been very careful this year not to rule anything out, and rule very little in. I’ve written more about what I think the need area’s are and tried to study up on the scheme. Of course, ignoring Wilson wasn’t the only error I made last year. I’d received some information from a trusted and proven source suggesting certain players were popular within the front office. I threw my lot in with one particular player and when he fell to the early second round, my decision was rightly questioned.
Yet when I look back to last year (and 2011 for that matter) I remembered how surprised I was — stunned even — when I heard, “With the 15th pick in the 2012 draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Bruce Irvin.” The same source that had given us the names told us it would be a pass rusher in round one. It was a foregone conclusion. And yet the name still shocked me, even if he was indeed a pass rusher. Irvin very specifically fit Pete Carroll’s off-season desire to improve speed within the front seven. The pick was staring at us right in the face and still drew gasps on the day.
Likewise I was surprised to hear Wilson’s name so early, although with hindsight that could be the greatest draft pick ever made by a front office in Seattle. But to most fans, it was a shock. An intriguing shock.
James Carpenter was also a surprise at the time, even if some of us (hey, I’ve pointed enough things out that I got wrong) had Carpenter posted as a top-25 selection throughout the process.
As Seattle’s picks have become proven commodities, there’s maybe a tendency to look back with hindsight and feel those picks weren’t so shocking after all. Simply because they were justified. I think that’d be inaccurate. A re-writing of history. They were surprising and unpredictable to anyone outside of a NFL front office. They’ve just proven to be less of a gamble than we initially thought.
So I guess what I’m trying to say here is, let’s keep an open mind. Anything could happen next week. Regular visitors will know how tedious I find the endless discussions about Tyrann Mathieu. Yet I accept it’s not implausible he’ll go much earlier than I expect, possibly even to Seattle. I think we could see a complete unknown drafted at #56. I think we could see a household name fall to the Seahawks. I think we could see moves up or down the board, or even further trades for veteran players.
Whatever does happen, I expect to be surprised. Again. This will be the fourth draft under Pete Carroll and John Schneider. Even though they’ve gone after fairly obvious needs every year, they’ve still managed to do it in their own little way. The only guaranteed thing next week is whatever they do won’t be boring. Or predictable. It’ll just be very Seahawky.
Christine Michael is an interesting case. He could easily be a second round pick based on talent. He’s been talked about as such during the off-season. He turned up at the East/West Shrine game and stuck out like a sore thumb. He dominated, looking like he didn’t belong at the game. Observer’s seemed to be impressed with his combine too, where he ran a 4.54 at 220lbs. He also had the best vertical jump (43 inches) ever recorded by a running back.
“His talent is crazy. … I have trouble seeing him getting out of the second round just because his physical traits are so good.”
Then there are the reasons why he might fall. His season ended early in 2010 due to a broken leg and he picked up an ACL in 2011. When he eventually returned in 2012, he quickly worked his way into Kevin Sumlin’s doghouse. He was suspended for the SMU game for violating team rules and was ejected from another for punching an opponent. It’s safe to say coach and player never saw eye-to-eye.
And if that wasn’t enough, he overslept at the combine and missed two meetings with teams.
Despite all of that, he’s still a 220lbs runner with nice cut back ability, lateral agility, vision and balance. One of my favourite players in the league is Chris Ivory. If I was the St. Louis Rams, I’d be trying to work on a trade to get him out of New Orleans where he’s sorely underused. Michael’s running style reminds me a little of Ivory’s and for that reason, I’m a fan.
The Seahawks might not consider drafting Michael early. He might be considered a value gamble later on. However, he’s someone to keep an eye on next week. It stands to reason that they will add a running back at some point and Carroll regularly stockpiled talent at the position in SoCal. Take a look for yourself (tape below) and let me know what you think.
You can also hear a Sirius interview with John Schneider conducted today by clicking here.
