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Updated mock draft – 15th March

The Seahawks did exactly what they set out to do — improve the pass rush. Pete Carroll made it clear as soon as the 2012 season ended. That was the #1 priority. And while most of us assumed they’d find a solution in the draft, who would’ve guessed they’d find what they were looking for in free agency?

Here we are, days into the new league year, and there are high-profile players seemingly sat at home waiting to make even their first visit. The market is shot. And it’s worked to Seattle’s advantage. Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett were expected to get mega deals, but the offers never came in. So they signed modest contracts with a contender to enhance their earning potential in the future. It’s win-win.

Avril fills the prospective hole left by Chris Clemons while he recovers from an ACL. Bennett almost certainly replaces Jason Jones as a hybrid pass rusher. He’s like Jason Jones+ — he can play the nickel three technique position but he can pretty much line up anywhere. If the Seahawks have a two-score lead in the fourth quarter, why not switch to an orthodox four man front with Bennett and Avril playing the edge? I suspect we’ll see him all over the line. He’s more versatile than Jason Jones but essentially, he fills that void.

Imagine if Clemons makes a recovery and what kind of options will be open to Seattle then? Avril, Bennett, Clemons and Bruce Irvin. Scary.

Danny Kelly at Field Gulls has a great piece on how Dan Quinn might look to use all the weapons at his disposal. This could be a much more attack-minded defensive line going forward. Not so much because there’s going to be any great ideological changes — but with an explosive offense capable of building big leads, Quinn and Carroll will have more opportunities to attack.

The two key need areas remaining are defensive tackle and linebacker. I do think we’ll see further moves in free agency to address at least one of these needs (Alan Branch?). Releasing Ben Obomanu today brought some cap relief, so there’s room for a modest addition at least. I think we’ll see further moves on the way too. What it all means is the Seahawks can pretty much do whatever they want at #56 and I wanted to emphasise that in this week’s mock. I haven’t gone for a prospect who will fill one of the two key needs. I haven’t gone for a player I think they’ll definitely be monitoring. It’s a pick that kind of emphasises that anything could happen now. The roster is good enough to justify any move.

I went for Tennessee’s versatile lineman Dallas Thomas. He’s a player I’m very fond of — athletic, strong and he gave Jadeveon Clowney a run for his money in October (he’s one of the very few who did last season). He’s capable of playing guard or tackle. He has the kind of height Seattle has looked for on the offensive line (6-5) and he has good size (around 310lbs). At #56 I wondered who might be the pure best player available at a position we might not really consider. I came up with five names — Thomas, Tyler Wilson, Robert Woods, Markus Wheaton and Marcus Lattimore.

I’ve debated with several people on here the teams likely satisfaction with the depth and quality of their offensive line. So what better way to express that anything can happen than to pick a guard/tackle in this mock? Thomas is certainly good enough to warrant the choice. Is it likely? Maybe not. But the Seahawks can feel comfortable doing it if they wish.

I wouldn’t rule out any of the other names either. John Schneider worked on a Green Bay front office that drafted Brian Brohm in the late second round despite having Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers on the roster. If Carroll feels drafting Woods or Wheaton to spell Percy Harvin on kick off’s is the best move, so be it. And if they want to bank Marcus Lattimore for a redshirt year knowing what he’s capable of when healthy, why not?

I’m at the stage now where any player at any position really is on the table. Seattle has the quality and depth to do whatever they want. So sit back and enjoy.

There are several trades in the first round again this week. We know we’ll see moves and given the way free agency has played out, I felt obliged to include some deals again. I will go back to a conventional mock next week. Unless people prefer seeing trades?

Buffalo trades from #8 to #2 with Jacksonville (estimated compensation — 2nd + 2014 second rounder)
The Bills just cut Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tarvaris Jackson is the next man up. Buddy Nix said it during the regular season — it’s time to go and get that quarterback. This front office has taken a first round prospect they’ve had come in for a visit for the last three years. It was revealed this week that Geno Smith will take a trip to Buffalo. The Jags are content to move down in this scenario.

San Diego trades from #11 to #6 with Cleveland (estimated compensation — 2nd round pick)
The Browns don’t have a second round pick so this makes some sense. The Chargers move up to get Eric Fisher. They have to come out of this draft with a left tackle.

Dallas trades from #18 to #14 with Carolina (estimated compensation — 3rd round pick)
Jerry Jones always seems to go after the guy he wants. He might see Jonathan Cooper as the answer to his problems at center. Cooper is good enough to make the switch. Trade up for a center? Again, Cooper is good enough.

Atlanta trades from #30 to #26 with Green Bay (estimated compensation — 4th round pick)
The Falcons, seeing Bjoern Werner fall, make a small move up the board to add a pass rusher that can start immediately.

San Francisco trades from #31 to #24 with Indianapolis (estimated compensation — 4th + 5th round pick)
The 49ers can afford to make a move like this, they have enough picks. They go after Datone Jones here. Indy is happy to move down and target Travis Frederick to play center or guard.

Tampa Bay trades from #43 to #29 with New England (estimated compensation — 3rd + 3rd round pick in 2014)
We saw discount moves at the end of round one in last years draft and we could see the same here. The Pats love a trade down and Tampa Bay moves up to guarantee they get a cornerback. They moved up to get Doug Martin last year and that worked out pretty well.

Arizona trades from #41 to #32 with Baltimore (estimated compensation — 3rd + 3rd round pick in 2014)
The Cardinals move back into the first round to draft a quarterback.

Note — picks involved in a trade can be identified by ** after the player’s name.

There are no trades in round two. This thing is convoluted enough as it is. And in this projection, the Seahawks re-sign Alan Branch.

First round

#1 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
They can pretty much do whatever they want here, but Joeckel probably makes the most sense.
#2 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) **
Jumping above Oakland and fending off interest from Cleveland, the Bills make sure they get their guy.
#3 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
The Raiders have to start building a core of talent, they have nothing right now. This is a long, painful rebuild.
#4 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
He’d make a nice fit in Philly’s new 3-4 scheme as a five-technique.
#5 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
The complete cornerback prospect and a fine addition for Detroit if he goes here.
#6 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) **
I don’t think the Chargers will mess around hoping one of Fisher or Lane Johnson falls to #11.
#7 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
They decide a tackle is best value here.
#8 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) **
Gus Bradley spent the last three years with Pete Carroll. So he’ll know Barkley’s worth.
#9 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
Rex Ryan’s future beyond 2013 is unclear, so go back to running the ball. A solid pick with no long term issues if there’s a coaching change.
#10 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU)
Someone’s going to fall in love with his upside.
#11 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) **
Ray Horton had Darnell Dockett in Arizona. Meet the second coming.
#12 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
In a draft like this, Austin going in the top-12 wouldn’t shock me at all.
#13 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
Corner is a big need, but Lotulelei could be too good to pass here.
#14 Jonathan Cooper (G/C, North Carolina) **
Jerry Jones seems to really go after guys he likes. He might consider moving up for Cooper, who could play center for Dallas.
#15 Jarvis Jones (OLB, Georgia)
Some teams will still be cautious, but if Jones’ back injury really isn’t as serious as feared — he should be a top-15 pick.
#16 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
A good fit for player and team.
#17 Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
He looks like a Steeler or a Raven in the making.
#18 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee) **
The Panthers could use some cheap points on offense. This perhaps takes some of the pressure off Cam Newton.
#19 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
The Giants appear to be starting again on defense. That could mean going after an athletic pass rusher.
#20 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
They’d probably like to keep building their offensive line. Fluker could play guard or tackle.
#21 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)
Someone will take a shot on this guy in round one I think.
#22 Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
Steven Jackson is off to Atlanta, so they’ll need another big, physical runner to win in the NFC West.
#23 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Minnesota)
He just seems like the kind of receiver Minnesota will go for. Consistent, reliable, driven. A nice partner for Greg Jennings.
#24 Datone Jones (DT, UCLA) **
The 49ers surely don’t think Glenn Dorsey is the answer? They have enough picks to move up and do this.
#25 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
Rick Spielman has already hit on two other Notre Dame players. Will he try and make it a hat-trick?
#26 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) **
The Falcons move up to get an impact pass rusher.
#27 Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
This is probably a need-meets-value type pick.
#28 Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
This secondary needs more than just Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie.
#29 Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington) **
The Buccs move up into the late first for the second year in a row.
#30 Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee) **
They move down and grab a pass-catcher. This is a need considering they’ve lost both Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.
#31 Travis Frederick (G, Wisconsin) **
Maybe Indy’s biggest need?
#32 E.J. Manuel (QB, Florida State) **
I think this would be ill-advised, but he’s done a lot to help his stock this off-season.

Second round

#33 Jacksonville – Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)
#34 San Francisco – Jonathan Cyprien (S, Florida International)
#35 Philadelphia – Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
#36 Detroit – Tank Carradine (DE, Florida State)
#37 Cincinnati – Matt Elam (S, Florida)
#38 Baltimore – Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
#39 New York Jets – Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
#40 Tennessee – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#41 Jacksonville – Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
#42 Miami – Larry Warford (G, Kentucky)
#43 New England – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#44 Carolina – Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
#45 Cleveland – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
#46 St. Louis – Ryan Swope (WR, Texas A&M)
#47 Dallas – Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
#48 Pittsburgh – Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#49 New York Giants – John Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
#50 Chicago – Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#51 Washington – D.J. Swearinger (S, South Carolina)
#52 Minnesota – Jamie Collins (LB, Southern Miss)
#53 Cincinnati – Jonathan Franklin (RB, UCLA)
#54 Miami – Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise State)
#55 Green Bay – Giovanni Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#56 Seattle – Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
#57 Houston – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#58 Denver – Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M)
#59 New England – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#60 Atlanta – Justin Pugh (G, Syracuse)
#61 San Francisco – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#62 Baltimore – Phillip Thomas (S, Fresno State)

Seahawks sign Michael Bennett to one-year deal

Ladies and gentleman… here is your upgraded version of Jason Jones. This new model is healthier and recorded nine sacks last season.

Percy Harvin. Cliff Avril. Michael Bennett. With a draft to come. The Seahawks are playing free agency like a boss. They’re letting the market come to them then beating the crap out of it.

Cliff Avril doesn’t get the mega money he’s looking for, so he signs a two-year ‘prove it’ deal in Seattle. Why? Because he knows this team will give him the opportunity to do just that. Prove it.

Michael Bennett doesn’t get the mega money he’s looking for, so he signs a one-year ‘prove it’ deal in Seattle. Why? Because he knows this team will give him the opportunity to do just that. Prove it.

This isn’t the kind of reckless ‘dream team’ spending that created a mess in Philadelphia. This is cold, calculated domination. If these deals don’t work, they move on. The length of contract in both cases means neither player will have any impact on the teams ability to re-sign Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas or anyone else in the future.

This isn’t blowing $7m on inside linebackers (Miami), multi-millions on Paul Kruger and Desmond Bryant (Cleveland), over-paying for Ricky Jean-Francois, Donald Thomas and Eric Walden (Indianapolis), or giving Mike Wallace $30m guaranteed (Miami again). This is patience and execution. This is opportunism. Playing the market, not being played by the market.

And it helps when you can attract these kind of deals because you already possess a young, vibrant roster.

There will be naysayers who claim you don’t win anything in March. That is true. But again, this isn’t a reckless splurge chasing a dream. Other teams ploughed into free agency and as a collective washed away over $200m in one day. The Seahawks instead traded for Harvin and solved their greatest need (pass rush) with two of the best available free agents at a knock down price. And what an incentive for Avril and Bennett to make the most of their time in the Pacific North West.

Seattle might not win the Super Bowl next season. But they’re positioning themselves for one hell of a run.

So far they’ve added one of the best playmakers in the league, replaced Chris Clemons (ACL) with a top-tier free agent and now upgraded the nickel three-technique position swapping Jason Jones for Michael Bennett. I’m half expecting a trade for Darrelle Revis tomorrow for a stick of gum and some old socks.

Cross off another need on your list. By my count that leaves two — starting defensive tackle and WILL. Will Alan Branch now re-sign? It makes a lot of sense. Take a WILL in the draft? Again, it makes a lot of sense.

This confirms Seattle’s trust in the role Jones played in last year and almost certainly suggests they’ll continue to use size at defensive tackle for the base defense. While a multitude of teams fret over finding a quarterback, or a cornerback, or a pass rusher, or all three… Seattle’s biggest need is merely one giant space eater.

And what about that pick at #56? They can pretty much do whatever they want now. Offense. Defense. Kicker.

Win Forever? They just might.

Michael Bennett’s nine sacks from 2012: Clip 1, Clip 2, Clip 3, Clip 4, Clip 5, Clip 6, Clip 7, Clip 8, Clip 9.

Meanwhile in other news today…

Tyrann Mathieu still worries me

He appeared on NFL AM this morning and conducted a slightly bizarre interview. It all started well enough and to be fair he took a bit of a grilling and opened up about his drug use. Yet there were some really worrying quotes that slipped out near the end.

He admitted he needed to get away from Louisiana after the incident that led to the end of his college career, and he travelled to stay with Patrick Peterson’s family in Florida. Yet when asked about the possibility of being drafted by New Orleans, this was his response: “They’d have to come up with a pretty good plan to keep me out of harms way.”

Excuse me?

He was then questioned about his four reps of the bench press at the combine (why even do it?) and he admitted it hadn’t been his focus going into the event. His focus had been “staying clean”. When pressed on this, he admitted he was still battling to keep away from drugs. That it was a “struggle” to stay away from marijuana. I find it pretty alarming that he’s still having issues there, to the point it seems to have impacted his combine preparation.

Near the end of the interview he said he’d been smoking weed from the age of 12-13 and was introduced to it by a family member. It just seems like this has been a part of his life for such a long time now, he’s really struggling to leave it behind. It’s ingrained into him. Almost like a compulsive smoker who struggles to quit because it’s become second nature.

You want to hear that he’s taken the wake-up call after his departure from LSU and kicked the drugs for good. You don’t want to hear he’s still battling those demons. A team isn’t going to want to babysit him through this struggle. He was a fun player to watch in college and I sincerely hope he can get his life and career back on track. But I can’t draft the guy on this evidence. If he can’t even be trusted to go back to Louisiana — his words — then I think you let somebody else deal with this. It’s a shame, but it is what it is.

Keenan Allen – what’s going on?

He didn’t work out at the combine. He was expected to work out at his pro-day today. But he didn’t. He didn’t do a single drill or work out.

This is starting to get worrying and it’s why I’ve had him as low as the late second round in previous mock drafts. You’re talking about a receiver who’s underdeveloped because the passing game in California was so inept. He basically spent a career running short digs and curls, constantly coming back to the quarterback. It’s hard to project how fast he is but I’m sceptical — he looks like a 4.5 guy to me which is unremarkable. And despite being billed as a big receiver, he’s one inch taller than DeAndre Hopkins with smaller hands and a smaller wingspan.

And now he’s a serious injury concern because this knee injury is just lingering and lingering. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he drops like a stone. It’ll take a pretty big leap of faith to see him go as early as some are projecting.

Harvin and Avril reflect Seattle’s unique perspective on value

Percy Harvin is the epitome of a John Schneider wide receiver

It’s funny how memory works.  One of the impressions I had from Seattle’s meeting against Minnesota last year was how unstoppable Harvin seemed.  Earlier today, I looked at Harvin’s game log to see how he did.  He had 10 yards receiving on six targets.  He added 24 yards on 4 rushes.  Was I smoking crack?  Why did I think Harvin was carving us up?

After reviewing that game a bit more, I realized how many close calls our defense had against Harvin.  Passes that just missed, passes caught that were just barely contained, and rushes that might have gone big if not for an ankle tackle here and there.  He may not have had a great game statistically before leaving with injury, but Seattle didn’t have the speed to cover him.  If he had been paired with a better quarterback and if he had played the whole game, I suspect he would have been a nightmare for our defense.  Harvin was on pace for 1334 receiving yards on 120 receptions before that fateful game at Century Link.  There was talk around midseason that he could end up an MVP candidate.

Pete Carroll once called Harvin “arguably the best football player in America” in reference to Harvin as a recruit from Landstown High School in Virginia.  The competition for Harvin as recruit came down to just USC and Florida.  Carroll made a big push, but ultimately lost Harvin to Florida, probably because Harvin wanted to stay on the east coast.  I don’t think Carroll ever forgot about Harvin.  If there is one thing you can count on- it’s that Pete Carroll doesn’t forget the one that got away.  Marshawn Lynch, Richard Sherman, and Bruce Irvin can testify to this.  Now Percy Harvin can as well.

But just as importantly, I think Harvin had a special place in John Schneider’s heart as well.  In Green Bay- where Schneider served as Thompson’s right hand man for many years- they had tremendous success in the draft with receivers.  They followed a system that targeted fast receivers with quick feet and yards after catch ability.

In Seattle, that trend continued, with the team targeting quick receivers like Golden Tate and Kris Durham, as well as acquiring Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Ricardo Lockette and Phil Bates, all of whom ran in the 4.4’s or better.  The slowest receiver Schneider has acquired from the draft process is Lavasier Tuinei, and even he ran a 4.53.  The two biggest successes of that group are Tate and Baldwin.  Tate is famous for his ability after the catch, and Baldwin is no slouch himself.  A very common comparison for Tate is a poor man’s Percy Harvin.

After a pair of sneaky strong 2012 seasons from Golden Tate and Sidney Rice, it made sense that Seattle would target an upgrade in the slot over Doug Baldwin, who finally showed the same struggle to remain healthy that made him an otherwise undeserving undrafted free agent in 2011.  Harvin led the NFL in yards after catch per reception last season, and has the kind of rare quickness out of the slot that you will only find a few other places in the league.   Not only did Harvin’s profile perfectly fit Seattle’s preferences, but his ability as a slot weapon, kick returner, and wrinkle in the rushing attack fit perfectly into Seattle’s 2013 offseason needs.

Harvin also brings an added element:  he changes the way defenses have to game plan our offense.  Consider this video where Vikings offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave talks about the impact Harvin has on defensive formations:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji9kxcbjimM&feature=youtu.be

Harvin’s speed and threat after the catch will not only limit the number of looks defenses can show pre-snap, but it will also force defenses to cover him in the slot with safeties and corners.  If you have a corner on him, that probably means using a nickle defense package.  Nickle packages tend to fare worse against the run, which is pretty nice considering that Seattle led the NFL in rushing percentage last season.  If you cover Harvin with a safety and are not using a nickle package, that means you only have one safety deep, which invites big plays on the deep ball.  If memory serves, Russell Wilson was the 4th highest quarterback in the NFL last season in deep ball throw rate.

It’s very unlikely that Harvin would post 120 catches for 1334 yards in our offense next year.  However, even if he posts Sidney Rice or Golden Tate type production, Harvin could bring a lot of hidden value to the rest of the offense based on his ability to change the way defenses play.

Regarding the trade itself, I don’t think it was a bad trade by any means, but I do think Seattle overpaid.  It was widely assumed just one month ago that Minnesota had no leverage and would be fortunate to get a 2nd or 3rd round pick.  One anonymous NFL GM even went so far to say that he’d be “shocked” if Minnesota even managed a 3rd.  I think Harvin’s $11 million a year contract is reasonable, but it is still a lot of money to invest at receiver in an offense that spreads the football.  And as Kenneth Arthur recently noted, Seattle owns the NFL’s most expensive offense, despite having a star quarterback making about 1/40th what he deserves.

Even the 7th round pick Seattle surrendered shouldn’t be taken lightly in this loaded draft class.  It’s very possible that the draft picks alone could have turned into two or three good players, and then you have the money aspect which would cover two more good players as well.  So for the price of one Harvin, Seattle gave up four or five contributors- and there is a chance one or two of them could be the next Richard Sherman or Bobby Wagner.  That’s a lot to give up.

Of course, Seattle’s roster is so stocked right now that many draft picks are going to waste anyway, but I don’t think that should be used as an excuse.  You always need more young talent to come in to replace the previous young talent that will inevitably lost to free agency in the coming years.

That said, I also thought Zach Miller was an overpay, and I couldn’t be any happier to have Zach Miller on my team.  I think everyone agrees that Joe Flacco is overpaid, but Baltimore is far better off with an overpaid Joe Flacco than without him.  Being an overpay does not make the Harvin transaction a burden by any means.  Quite the opposite, I think Seattle just got their version of Wes Welker.  The Patriots got Welker for a 2nd and a 7th, and a lot less money, but had they paid a Percy Harvin type price, they obviously wouldn’t have regretted it.  Not that I expect Harvin to post Welker type numbers, but I do think our offense will have a comparable leap forward.

Another trade comparison is Julio Jones.  The Jones trade cost far more in picks (two firsts, a second, and two fourths), but Harvin cost $7 million more a year in salary.  Even at the steep cost of the Jones trade, most people agree that the deal has been justified by Jones’ performances.  I don’t think Harvin is the kind of pure receiving threat that Jones is, but in terms of total contribution (receiving, rushing, special teams, the way he changes defenses) I think it could be argued that he’s at least in the ballpark for total value.

I don’t think this trade proved anything about Seattle’s priorities.  They could have acquired players like Greg Jennings, Mike Wallace, or Wes Welker for far less total cost.  The fact that they paid this much with some excellent cheaper alternatives just shows you how highly they value Harvin.  They clearly view Harvin as a 24 year old, MVP type difference maker for their offense.  I don’t think this was a case of buying high because of a need.  I think it was a case of buying high because they felt that Harvin specifically was a “must get” player.

Of course, all the worries about Harvin’s migraines and character risks shouldn’t be brushed aside (although to be fair, Harvin busts his ass on the field and is exactly the kind of “character risk” that would fit in around here).  We’ll see how that works out with time.  If nothing else, Seattle’s emphatic trade for Harvin crystallizes the idea that Seattle highly values speedy, yards after catch receivers.

John Schneider loves black sheep free agents

John Schneider’s modus operandi in free agency has always been “wait and see.”  In 2011, he made a shocking acquisition of Sidney Rice on day four of free agency.  Rice, a one time 1300 yard receiver, drew essentially no interest in the open market.  Seattle saw an opportunity for a potential #1 receiver on a reasonable deal, and pounced.  A few days later, more than a week into free agency, Seattle made an even bigger surprise signing with Zach Miller, who had far less interest than expected on the open market.  The deal for Miller wasn’t the potential bargain that Rice was, but Seattle was hunting for talent for their two tight end sets and Miller fits our multi-dimensional offense about as well as you could ask for.

In 2012, Seattle seemed disinterested in quarterback Matt Flynn, that was until his market didn’t materialize as many expected.  Teams avoided Flynn, unconvinced by his lack of track record and late round tools.  It probably didn’t help that everyone just assumed he’d get “Kolb money”, this during a time when Kevin Kolb was considered a cautionary tale.  Flynn ended up with almost zero market, and Seattle’s view changed.  They ended up swooping in to nab him at 3 years, $19 million, a move that probably would have looked brilliant if not for the thunderous emergence of Russell Wilson.

Of course, this tactic extends beyond big money darlings in free agency.  Black sheep come in all shapes and sizes.  Guys like Brandon Browner, Chris Clemons, Marshawn Lynch, Leon Washington, Raheem Brock, Brandon Stokely, Anthony Hargrove, Kellen Winslow, Terrell Owens, and Braylon Edwards.  Some of those acquisitions were strikeouts and some were home runs, but all were low cost gambles that on the whole provided the team with a great return on investment.

This year’s black sheep acquisition is Cliff Avril.  Widely believed to be the top pass rusher available, Avril did not generate the market that was expected.  Perhaps citing a lack of run defense, or the theory that Ndamukong Suh acted as Avril’s benefactor, teams seemed wary to hand Avril top pass rusher years and money.  With Clemons being paid nearly $18 million for his age 32 and 33 seasons, coming fresh off an ACL, and with Irvin appearing to be far away from being a true 3-down LEO, adding another pass rusher at end made all kinds of sense for Seattle at the right price.  It’s no surprise then that Seattle was the first team to invite John Abraham for a visit after his release from the Falcons.

When it was announced that Seattle had signed Avril, I was surprised.  When I saw the details, I was stunned.  Fifteen million dollars over two years?  Seriously?  What a great buy low move and as early as day two of free agency no less.

Avril’s game is a bit of a mix between Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin.  Avril’s size, speed, and physique is extremely similar to Clemons.  And like Clemons, Avril can manage against the run without having to sell out for it.  Where he’s like Irvin is how he’s very much an edge rusher that isn’t the same on inside moves.  Avril thrives on attacking the edge and swatting at quarterbacks as he passes by.  This is where I think the Suh concern is very real, because most of Avril’s production occurs because quarterbacks are afraid to step into the pocket.  And without a 1st round pick, or any real answer in free agency, Seattle will find it very challenging to create interior pressure next season.  Of course, Seattle is not done with the offseason, and there are a few rays of hope in the 2013 draft to complete Seattle’s pass rush ((cough) John Simon (cough) (cough)).

For many teams, I don’t know if Avril made sense even at 2/15, but for Seattle’s LEO role he’s a great fit.  I would have happily seen the Seahawks sign him for 5/50 last offseason before he was franchised.  Our defense is built to minimize his issues against the run, and while we probably won’t generate the interior pressure he’s depended on, he didn’t exactly have a secondary quite like ours behind him in Detroit, either.

Of course, this acquisition raises questions about Chris Clemons’ future.  Will Seattle pay almost $18 million over the next two seasons for a 32 year old player fresh off an ACL when cheaper, safer, and frankly, better alternatives are available?  Clemons has been one of the most valuable defensive ends in the NFL, but I doubt he’d bring as much value in 2013 on a bad knee as a healthy John Abraham or Osi Umenyiora would.  Is a healthy 26 year old Cliff Avril worth less than a 32 year old Clemons fresh off an ACL?  With Avril acting as needed insurance, we might see a restructure attempt heading Clemons’ way.

Obviously, nobody expected Seattle to blow the doors off in the first two days of free agency.  But in retrospect, their actions seem almost predictable for how well they fit the established mold.  While the amount is shocking, the fact that Seattle went for Percy Harvin is hardly surprising.  While it was highly unexpected that Avril would find his market so lacking, it is not surprising that it was the Seahawks who took advantage of it.  So far, this has been nothing if not a very John Schneider type offseason.  The Seahawks do not handle free agency like most teams do, and it’s part of the reason they’ve risen so quickly as an NFL superpower.

Seahawks sign Cliff Avril

Hands up who thought the Seahawks wouldn’t do all that much in free agency?

Days after making a blockbuster trade for Percy Harvin, Pete Carroll and John Schneider have gone out and landed one of the premier free agents on the market. Detroit’s Cliff Avril was being linked with moves to Cleveland and Indianapolis early in the process, two 3-4 teams hunting for pass rushers who can work in space. Avril’s best fit was likely in the 4-3 and he’s en route to Seattle to pen a two year deal (according to ESPN).

Here’s what you need to know — he’s hitting his prime age (turns 27 in April) with 29 sacks and nine forced fumbles in the last three seasons. He’s 6-3 and 260lbs, so he’s in that LEO range. He ran a 4.51 at the combine in 2008 with a 1.52 split. That kind of speed will appeal to this front office. He’s a former third round pick coming out of Purdue.

Yes, he’s benefited a lot from the presence of Ndamukong Suh. This will be a big test to see if he can replicate those numbers without a dominating interior rusher. Yet the Lions thought enough of him to franchise him last year and offer a deal worth $10m per season over three years. He rejected those terms. It’s not clear yet how much he will earn in Seattle.

It’ll be interesting to see how much he’s earning, given Harvin’s new contract. The Seahawks suddenly look like a team chasing a title, sensing a window. They could’ve probably made a cheaper and more modest addition with John Abraham, Dwight Freeney and Osi Umenyiora all on the market. They would’ve all been stop-gaps, however. This stands to be a longer term move.

My initial thought is what does this mean for Chris Clemons? He’s taking up $8.1m in 2013 and might not even be able to make it onto the field. Avril has some similarities to Clemons, he’s kind of a younger version. Can they afford to carry both players plus Bruce Irvin? Perhaps a more relevant question is if they’re all healthy during the season, can they be creative to get all three involved? Could they use more orthodox 4-3 looks, with Avril and Clemons rushing the edge? I suspect if they can afford to keep all three players, they will do. This is a team that appears to be leaving nothing to chance.

It’s probably a nod to the importance of Clemons in Carroll’s three years with the team. They’ve relied almost exclusively on him to create pressure in base defense. Losing him was a bigger blow than maybe we initially considered. Today’s news suggests they almost felt obliged to be aggressive here. They couldn’t afford to go into the season without a proven starting edge rusher.

Carroll consistently mentioned the pass rush needed improving. This hopefully takes care of one aspect — replacing Clemons’ production if he can’t go. It won’t solve the issue alone, however. Seattle still needs to either replace the departed Jason Jones (who ironically has signed for Detroit today) or add a pure-three technique who can start and collapse the pocket.

The signing of Avril also probably ends the concept of Bruce Irvin as the ‘ideal LEO’. Avril’s only signing for two years, but Irvin is already in his mid-20’s. He appears destined to remain a specialist. And that’s fine. He’s at is best with his ears pinned back rushing the passer, not over thinking the play call and selling out to defend the run.

In terms of how this impacts the draft, it could open the door for a weakside linebacker to be drafted early (Khaseem Greene? Arthur Brown?). Perhaps a defensive tackle like John Jenkins or Brandon Williams, or a smaller (!!!) guy like Kawann Short or Sly Williams? Maybe they go offense again? I wouldn’t completely rule out the tight end position, particularly if one of the top three (Ertz, Eifert, Escobar) falls to #56.

Once again Carroll and Schneider keep everyone guessing. In an off-season where nobody really expected Seattle to be big spenders, they’ve been ferocious. In an off-season of surprises, who knows what the next move will be?

In other big free agency news today, Wes Welker made a stunning $12m move to Denver. Tom Brady is writing a letter to ask for his Ugg’s back as we speak. In response, the Patriots quickly snatched up Danny Amendola as a replacement on a $31m deal. He’s requested Ugg’s bearing his initials. And yeah, the Patriots were willing to pay Amendola more than Welker. Jake Long appears to be choosing between the Rams and Dolphins. Louis Delmas is also meeting with St. Louis, while it was revealed they’re paying Jared Cook an astonishing $16m guaranteed. San Francisco added Glenn Dorsey.

Wednesday is usually mock draft day. We’ll do it tomorrow instead. Today is Cliff Avril Wednesday.

Free agency live thread (and how it impacts the draft)

Percy Harvin is officially a Seahawk

Free agency as it happens, with reaction to how each (major) signing impacts the draft.

Andy Levitre (G, Buffalo) to Tennessee
This signing, and the aggressive nature of the Titans’ approach, suggests they won’t draft for the interior offensive line with the #10 pick. Having been linked with Jonathan Cooper (good fit for their zone blocking scheme), the addition of Levitre should allow Tennessee to look elsewhere. And I suspect one of their biggest priorities will be to add one of the best interior pass rushers, such as Missouri’s Sheldon Richardson. UPDATE — The deal is worth an incredible $46.8M over six years with $13M due in 2013 alone.

Mike Wallace (WR, Pittsburgh) to Miami
The Dolphins know they need to surround Ryan Tannehill with talent. They re-signed Brian Hartline and will now add downfield speedster Mike Wallace. The contract is speculated to be hefty, so they’ll need an instant return. They could still add another target with the #12 pick (such as Cordarrelle Patterson) but what seems more likely is they’ll bolster their ranks with a second or third round prospect. Ryan Swope would be perfect, due to his familiarity with the playbook and quarterback. Miami has two second round picks due to the Vontae Davis trade with Indianapolis.

Paul Kruger (DE, Baltimore) to Cleveland
Wonder how this one will go down in Baltimore? Kruger switches teams within the AFC North for a reported $41m contract. The Browns have added a pass-rush partner for Jabaal Sheard and should be able to get their 3-4 defense rolling with Ray Horton on board. They have two quality outside linebackers now. I think they could still target a 3-4 end with pass rush ability, just as Horton used Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett. Ziggy Ansah remains an option, but Richardson could be the second coming of Dockett.

Louis Vasquez (G, San Diego) to Denver
Another player moving within the same division, Vasquez jumps ship after only a middling attempt by the Chargers to keep him. This will ensure Peyton Manning stays well protected and the Broncos have a blossoming, young offensive line that should also set the stall for a productive run game. This shouldn’t impact the Broncos draft plans too much. They need to upgrade that secondary.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB) is cut by Buffalo
They really wanted rid, huh? This saves only $450k but it goes to show that teams will take on any kind of saving to just move on from a non-starter. The Bills need a quarterback. And this adds weight to the suggestion they’ll trade up for ‘their guy’ in the draft (as noted in last week’s mock). Despite all the negative press around Geno Smith, Matt Barkley and co, teams will identify guys they like. And in some cases they’ll be aggressive to get them.

Martellus Bennett (TE, New York) to Chicago
The Bears were an option to go tight end at #20, but this gives them some security. Their main priority is to rebuild a rancid offensive line. Gabe Carimi was a bust waiting to happen in round one and the Bears tried to add Phil Loadholt before he re-signed in Minnesota. Jake Long is headed to St. Louis for his first visit, not Chicago. Does he get out of the Rams complex without a deal? If they go into the draft without a left tackle then moving up to get at the trio of Joeckel, Fisher and Johnson seems a strong possibility. UPDATE — apparently they’re speaking to Jermon Bushrod (T, New Orleans).

Delanie Walker (TE, San Francisco) to Tennessee
Replacement for Jared Cook? I for one will be pleased to see Walker out of the NFC West. He always seemed to perform well against the Seahawks. Whether that same success translates to the AFC South, I’m not sure. The Niners found a niche role for him. They are a very creative offense. Tennessee’s is not.

Seattle’s deal for Percy Harvin is now complete!!!

Round-up
In terms of other news so far, Kansas City defensive lineman Glenn Dorsey is visiting with the 49ers. The Buccaneers are being strongly linked with a trade for Darrelle Revis. Nnamdi Asomugha and Antoine Winfield were cut today. The Packers are considered the clubhouse leaders to sign Steven Jackson. If you missed it earlier, Leon Washington was released by the Seahawks.

Pete Carroll speaks
He just did a spot on Sirius FM with Pat Kirwan, pulling out of a free agency meeting to conduct the interview. He described the deal for Percy Harvin as trading up in the draft to get the best receiver. He denied speculation that Sidney Rice could be cut, insisting that wasn’t an option. Carroll left the door open for Leon Washington to return to Seattle on reduced terms. He also insisted they will continue to compete during free agency and will be open to further deals.

And for those wondering…

Dannell Ellerbe (LB, Baltimore) to Miami
Wow — maybe the first big shock of the day? Baltimore is really feeling the effect of signing Joe Flacco to a mega-deal. First they lose Paul Kruger to a division rival, now Dannel Ellerbe heads to Miami for $35m. While the media wax lyrical about Anquan Boldin’s playoff performance, Ellerbe was just as much of a factor on defense. This loss will be felt. Whether he can continue to perform at a high level remains to be seen. The consolation for Baltimore is they’ll be stocked with compensatory picks in 2014. In terms of this years draft — after losing Kruger, Ellerbe and watching Ray Lewis retire, it surely makes linebacker a huge need at #32?

Jared Cook (TE, Tennessee) to St. Louis
The Rams make a big splash. It’ll be interesting to see the terms of the deal. Jeff Fisher knows the player from his time with the Titans. Cook is more potential than production so far, but it’s another weapon for Sam Bradford. They almost had to do something after Seattle’s move for Harvin and San Francisco’s move for Boldin. You need to keep up in this division. Considering the likely size of Cook’s contract, they better hope he delivers on all that promise. This allows the Rams to concentrate on receivers, offensive linemen and defensive backs in the draft. They could also target an outside linebacker. Some names to consider: Tavon Austin, Alec Ogletree, Lane Johnson, Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper.

Jermon Bushrod (T, New Orleans) to Chicago
Chicago had to act. They had to improve that line. At least now they have someone who can play tackle. Bushrod joins on a five-year deal. They won’t have to contemplate trading into the top ten. They have a bit more flexibility in the draft. It’s tough needing a franchise left tackle when you’re not drafting in the top ten. The Bears have signed a tight end and a tackle today. In the draft, that could help them improve at guard (Cooper?) or linebacker (Te’o? Minter?). UPDATE — Bushrod’s deal is worth $35.965M with nearly $18m guaranteed. I’m not a fan at that price tag.

Percy Harvin contract news starting to filter through

So that’s $14.5m fully guaranteed in 2013 alone, with $25m guaranteed in total. In comparison, Miami is paying Mike Wallace $30m in guarantees with $13-14m per year. The Seahawks are taking a significant cash hit in year one, but it’ll be interesting to see how much of that is bonus and how much is cap. Front loading with a signing bonus will probably make it easier to re-sign others in the future. If it takes up a lot of cap room, it hampers the teams ability to roll cap into 2014 without serious cuts. And it would also hurt their chances of any moderate free agency moves.

Sammie Lee Hill (DT, Detroit) to Tennessee
The Titans are reportedly close to adding another free agent in the form of a defensive tackle. Some had asked whether the Seahawks would show interest here, but it’s hard to know how good Lee Hill actually is. He didn’t feature all that much behind Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. Tennessee addressed two big needs with a guard and a tackle. I still think Sheldon Richardson is a good fit at #10.

Philip Wheeler (LB, Oakland) to Miami
The Dolphins keep on rolling. First Mike Wallace, then Dannell Ellerbe and now Philip Wheeler. Jeff Ireland is going to town. I’m not sure if it’s such a great plan — how many teams fall flat on their faces after going crazy in free agency? Wheeler spent one year in Oakland after starting his pro-career in Indianapolis. The Dolphins still need a pass rusher and improvements to the secondary on defense. You can’t help but wonder what they’ll do next?

Isaac Sopoaga (DT, San Francisco) to Philadelphia
The Eagles, who are switching to a 3-4, needed a nose tackle. This fills a big need on a contract worth $12m with $5m guaranteed. What’s more, Philly is also bringing in fellow Niner Ricky Jean-Francois for a visit. San Francisco will have something like 14 draft picks next month, but they have a lot of needs on defense. They’ll need to hit on a few players at this rate. They already lost Delanie Walker today to Tennesse. They could lose Dashon Goldson. Defensive line, cornerback and safety are big needs for the Niners. Shame.

Darrius Heyward-Bey & Michael Huff are cut by Oakland
This isn’t a big surprise. The Raiders are basically looking at a multi-year rebuild. They didn’t have a pick in the first two days of the draft last year, despite introducing a new front office and coaching staff. This year, they don’t have a second rounder as part of the Carson Palmer trade. They have nothing — and I mean nothing — to build around. I sincerely hope the guys in charge get the time they need, but somehow I doubt it. The Raiders are a mess.

Desmond Bryant (DT, Oakland) to Cleveland
A lot of Seahawks fans wanted Desmond Bryant. I was less enthused. He seemed like one of those ‘nearer 30 than 20’ types who gets pumped up a lot but is probably already in his peak. He was a good enough run stopper but not a great pass rusher. And he (probably) just got paid by Cleveland within hours of free agency opening. The Seahawks, in my view, are better off re-signing Alan Branch to a modest deal. Keep the band together, man. Then use the #56 on a pass rusher. Whether that’s a three technique, a Jason Jones replacement or a LEO. In terms of impact on the draft, this increases the chances Oakland takes a Sharrif Floyd, Sheldon Richardson or Star Lotulelei at #3. They currently have no starting defensive tackles. It also possible weakens the chances of Cleveland adding to their front seven at #6. However, Ray Horton enjoyed the benefits of Darnell Dockett in Arizona. I wonder if he sees Richardson as a similar type of player? UPDATE — It’s a 5-year, $34m deal for Bryant in Cleveland, including $15m in guarantees. No way the Seahawks were paying that.

How does the Percy Harvin trade impact Seattle’s draft?

Note — I don’t usually post multiple articles in a day. I don’t want to flood you with material and most of the Percy Harvin-trade discussion is going on in the other article. If you want to check it out, it’s a piece on the pro’s and con’s of the trade. And yes, we’ll still be doing a live chat on day one of the draft this year!

So… now that there’s no first round pick any more, what are we going to talk about for the next few weeks?

First of all, let’s put the Harvin trade into context here. A few people have brought up — not unfairly — the point that Seattle’s greatest need (pass rush) is now unlikely to be resolved early in the draft. Here’s the thing though. Let’s assume Sheldon Richardson, Star Lotulelei and Sharrif Floyd leave the board early next month. Let’s assume Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones, Ziggy Ansah, Datone Jones and others also disappear quickly. What are you left with?

Kawann Short? Sylvester Williams? Are they really going to solve this big need?

What about the other receivers? I’m a big fan of DeAndre Hopkins, but is he going to offer explosive playmaking skills? Can you rely on Keenan Allen or Justin Hunter to stay healthy and have an impact at the next level?

Yes the Seahawks need height at receiver and will now field a corps involving 5-10 Golden Tate, 5-10 Doug Baldwin and 5-11 Percy Harvin. But what was the alternative? Allen is 6-2. Hopkins is 6-1. Hunter is 6-4. Are any of those guys likely to have the kind of impact Harvin could have? Very, very unlikely.

I’ve agonised over the last 7-8 mock drafts I’ve done trying to find that ‘unique’ talent the Seahawks would probably look for and most of the time came out empty handed. It’s difficult to find defining difference makers in the late first round. It just is.

Simply put, Harvin was better than any of the options available. I’m sure that’s how Pete Carroll and John Schneider saw this. They looked at the class, looked at who might be available at #25. Then they decided Harvin was that much better than anyone else they could bring in.

Ask yourself who you’d rather have the day after the first round of the draft concludes — Percy Harvin, Kawann Short, Sly Williams or DeAndre Hopkins. I suspect most people will say Harvin. He’s the only player likely to scare the living the daylights out of the rest of the NFC West.

If anything, the trade makes the draft even more intriguing now. It’s a deep class and the Seahawks will still be able to get a good player at #56 (if they keep the pick). What’s more, we’ve kind of been given a direction now. They almost certainly won’t be drafting a receiver in round two. Given the need to address the defensive line and WILL position, it’s pretty safe to assume that’s what they’ll do in round two. Although you never know with this front office.

Of course, free agency could change things even further. For now, let’s look at some of the options at #56.

At defensive tackle, don’t rule out the possibility of Kawann Short or Sylvester Williams making it into the late second. Both players are slightly older (24 and 25 respectively during their rookie seasons) and lack the kind of explosive, difference making skills to guarantee an earlier selection. Right now I have both going in the top half of the second round. The depth at defensive tackle and possibility of ‘the big three’ going in the top-15 could force others down the board as demand lightens. Don’t be surprised if Jesse Williams, John Jenkins and Johnathan Hankins also suffer as a consequence. Hey, there’s every chance all five of these players go in the top-40. Just don’t be shocked if they last a little longer than expected.

Beyond that, Brandon Williams has shown enough athletic potential at 341lbs to combat his small-school upbringing. He’s intriguing. A little inexperienced in some cases and he might need to learn a few extra counters. Yet he moves unnaturally well for a guy at that size. USF’s Cory Grissom similarly impressed during the Senior Bowl work outs and the combine. Montori Hughes has a laundry list of character issues but there’s just something about him that looks right. Jordan Hill remains a favourite of ours on tape although he did look limited athletically in Indianapolis.

As much as improving the pass rush is important, I suspect the Seahawks want to keep size up front. Harvin makes the offense more explosive. They’re going to be leading in a lot of games anyway, which in turn helps the pass rush. Playing stout against the run early on could be more important than ever. It’s easier to ‘tee off’ on the pass rush with a healthy lead.

I suspect they’ll continue to lean on the ‘Jason Jones role’ as a situational pass rusher. Datone Jones appeared the most likely fit here but he’s unlikely to make it to round two. We’ve discussed Margus Hunt many times on the blog and he could be in play at #56. He’s not a polished, orthodox pass rusher. He’s still an athlete playing football. Yet physically he has a ton of upside and he kind of feels like the type of player this team would love to draft. It’s a little boom or bust, but you can see him working inside on third down and playing some edge too. His 4.6 speed and 6-8, 277lbs frame remains intriguing. He could be a first rounder based on upside or a sixth rounder based on the fact he’s a discus thrower chasing a football. His stock is impossible to predict.

In terms of defensive ends or LEO’s — Corey Lemonier’s combine performance makes it unlikely he will be available. He could be a mid-first rounder. Tank Carradine is having his tire’s pumped a little too much recently (in my view) but his ACL injury will push him back. Possibly to #56. It just depends on whether the Seahawks want another pass rusher coming off a serious injury.

Alex Okafor could be there in the late second — not an obvious LEO due to a lack of initial burst and speed, but he has excellent technical skills and hand use. John Simon is a favourite on this blog and could be an asset even in round two.

The best value might come at linebacker. If Khaseem Greene or Arthur Brown last into round two, don’t be surprised if Seattle makes a move in that direction.

Other players who could be on the radar later: Armonty Bryant (Kip’s favourite, LEO), Quinton Dial (DT or five technique depth), Abry Jones (DT), Michael Buchanan (LEO), Lavar Edwards (Jason Jones), Travis Long (LEO), Devin Taylor (LEO or Jason Jones), Cornelius Washington (LEO), Everett Dawkins (DT), Josh Boyd (DT), Jamie Collins (LEO or WILL), Brandon Jenkins (LEO).

There’s always the chance for further trades too, be it up or down the board. We might not have much to get excited about on day one of the draft this year, but there’s plenty to discuss over the next few weeks. Does anyone really expect it’ll be a boring draft with Pete Carroll and John Schneider in control? I didn’t think so.

Percy Harvin links

Danny O’Neil reports that the 2014 pick heading to Minnesota is likely to be a 3rd rounder. For a team that found a franchise quarterback in that range, they sure like to trade away third round picks.

Jason Cole writes that Harvin’s lack of trust in Christian Ponder help drive his desire for a trade. “Percy Harvin wanted two things this offseason: Money and a better quarterback.”

Mike Sando says the NFC West would rather prepare for the #25 pick in the 2013 draft than face Percy Harvin: “Harvin… is a threat to score as a receiver, runner and kickoff returner. Harvin has 20 touchdowns as a receiver, four as a runner and five as a kick returner.”

ESPN has quotes from Golden Tate on the news of the trade. Tate: “The Seahawks are trying to do whatever they think is necessary to put together a Super Bowl quality team. If this is one of the steps they think works to accomplish that, then that’s their choice. I don’t think it will impact any of our work habits. We are still going to grind and let the cards play out the way that they will.”

Marc Sessler notes the size of the story: “It’s a stunning move that will strengthen an already powerful Seahawks roster with a premier wide receiver and return threat, while simultaneously ending Harvin’s often rocky four-year tenure in Minnesota. It’s a bitter pill to swallow for Vikings fans. Harvin was the Vikings’ most exciting player, with the ability to scorch defenses as a pass-catcher and pick up devastating chunks of yardage in open space.”

Gregg Rosenthal believes it’s a great move by the Seahawks: “Coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider have been nothing if not bold since arriving Seattle three years ago to re-make the Seahawks. They think different. They build different. They aren’t afraid to take chances.”

Brock and Salk react to the news today with Tim Hasselbeck and Adam Schefter.

Adrian Peterson isn’t happy:

In other news, the 49ers traded a 6th round pick for Anquan Boldin’s four regular season touchdowns.

Seahawks trade for Percy Harvin

So, who expected to see this today?

The Seahawks will acquire Percy Harvin from the Minnesota Vikings for the #25 pick in 2013, a seventh rounder this year and a mid-round pick in 2014. Life is never dull with Pete Carroll and John Schneider in town.

Firstly, Harvin is a tremendous playmaker. Without doubt one of the best in the NFL. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell worked with him in Minnesota for two years (his rookie season in 2009 and the following year). Pete Carroll also tried to recruit Harvin for USC in 2005. He met with the Gators and the Trojans and nobody else. He chose Florida, which isn’t a total shock given he’s an east coast guy (he’s originally from Virginia). Basically, they aren’t making this deal without deep inside knowledge in the player.

You can put him anywhere on the field and he’ll make plays. Receiver, runner, kick returns. He’s a nightmare to match-up against. If the Seahawks want to persist with the read-option within their offense, Harvin can be effective there too. He certainly was for the Gators in college. Speed, power, game-changing skills. He has the works.

Carroll and Schneider want unique players. Difference makers. Playmakers on both sides of the ball that possess rare qualities that you just don’t find every year in the draft. Harvin doesn’t just fit the bill, he’s the poster boy. There isn’t another Percy Harvin in the league. There isn’t another Percy Harvin in this draft class. That’s why he fits in Seattle.

Then there’s the other side of Percy Harvin…

His fall out with Minnesota was ugly. Very ugly. It was reported he clashed with Head Coach Leslie Frazier in front of other staff members and players. He was seen visibly screaming at his coach in the Vikings defeat to Seattle in November for no obvious reason. ESPN’s Tom Pelissero reported on the fall-out at the end of the season:

TV cameras caught Harvin waving his arms and screaming at Frazier on the sideline over his frustration with the Vikings’ struggling offense.

According to four NFL sources, Harvin and Frazier had another heated exchange weeks later in front of some players and staff members, fueling speculation about a deteriorating relationship that could spell the end of Harvin’s four seasons in Minnesota.

Details of that altercation remain clouded, though it is believed to have begun in the training room at the Vikings’ facility.

CBS Minnesota offered this take:

Multiple sources tell Mike Max that Harvin had an embarrassing tirade directed toward Frasier, disrespecting the coach during the season when Harvin was sidelined with an injured ankle.

Teammates were present, and Max was told that is when Harvin left the team and was put on injured reserve.

Sources say teammates were disappointed in Harvin’s actions and the organization has moved toward less tolerance for that behavior.

Harvin apparently had a similar incident when Childress coached the team.

The Vikings will try to trade him, Max reports, as Harvin does have market value.

It was quite a bizarre situation given Minnesota’s successful season where they made the playoffs. Really, what was there to complain about?

Harvin’s had two Head Coaches in his pro-career and fallen out with both. Will Carroll be the hat trick?

There’s also a substantial injury history.

In 2009 and 2010 he suffered severe problems with migraine’s and was constantly listed on the injury report as a consequence. He’s also had ankle, hamstring, hip, shoulder and finger injuries. In 2009 he was listed as questionable seven times. He was on the injury report eight times in 2010, seven times in 2011 and five times in 2012 before being placed on injured reserve (missing Minnesota’s last five games). He’s competitive for his size when he’s actually on the field, but he’s also been quite brittle.

According to Jason Cole, Harvin is also targeting ‘Calvin Johnson’ type money:

While the Vikings and Harvin’s agent, Joel Segal, have yet to exchange contract proposals, it’s believed that Harvin wants money closer to what Calvin Johnson got from Detroit in 2012 (eight years, $132 million) than to Jackson or Bowe. That’s an average of $16.5 million per year compared to a little more than $11 million for Jackson and Bowe. As one person put it about Harvin, he considers himself a “special” player and executives around the league have fed that attitude by telling people close to him how difficult it is to cover Harvin.

The Seahawks will have the framework for a new deal agreed before any trade is completed. However, this will not be cheap. And it makes you wonder if other players — like Sidney Rice ($9.7m cap hit) or Zach Miller ($11m cap hit) — will be asked to re-work their deals given their substantial salaries in 2013. Cutting Rice would potentially save $6m in cap money — does that become an option? What about releasing Leon Washington (due $2.875m) given Harvin’s quality as a return-man? And surely moving Matt Flynn now becomes even more of a priority?

Then there’s this article by Jeremy Fowler to consider, where he notes other concerns about Harvin:

Percy Harvin “epitomized the climate” of player entitlement under coach Urban Meyer at the University of Florida, according to a Sporting News report posted online Monday, April 9.

Harvin, who played for the Gators from 2006-08, reportedly was one of three players who missed the 2008 season opener after allegedly failing drug tests for marijuana – penalties dictated by university policy – although Meyer publicly blamed an injury for Harvin’s absence.

Harvin also refused to run stadium steps with the rest of the team during offseason conditioning before the 2007 season, according to the Sporting News, and once allegedly threw wide receivers coach Billy Gonzales to the ground by his neck.

Harvin reportedly wasn’t punished for either of those incidents, according to the report, and was treated differently as a member of Meyer’s “Circle of Trust.”

Harvin told strength and conditioning coaches while boycotting stadium runs, “this (expletive) ends now,” according to the report, and the team played basketball as conditioning the next day.

It makes you wonder how this undoubtedly talented but also flawed player will respond to a big new contract. Will this play to Harvin’s entitled nature? Or will he be able to buy into Carroll’s ‘all-in’ philosophy and knuckle down? He’s not managed a 1000-yard season in his career yet, which is incredible given his talent-level. He needs to stay healthy and stay away from drama. If he can do that, he’ll be among the league’s best.

Harvin’s on-field talents will give Russell Wilson a truly dynamic receiver to target. Off the field though, will he be willing to give up time to work with such an intense character like Wilson, who’s a stickler for detail and putting in the hours?

Despite all the perceived negatives both Carroll and Darrell Bevell know the guy and aren’t walking into this blindfolded. They’re acquiring a player who doesn’t even turn 25 until May. And the fact is nobody is going to look forward to facing Wilson, Harvin, Marshawn Lynch and co.

Finally, what does this trade say about the draft? The Seahawks perhaps feel Harvin is too good to pass up. It could also be a review of what’s available in the late first round range. If they feel nobody gets close to Harvin’s level of talent (and they don’t) you can understand the deal. However, there’s little chance now for Seattle to attack their pass rush problems early. The options at #56 won’t be great. So while the offense continues to improve, there will be some concern that the biggest hole within the team will remain unresolved. Signing Harvin to a big contract won’t leave much room to make many other moves in free agency after all.

Yet think of it like this. Sheldon Richardson, Star Lotulelei and Sharrif Floyd were way out of range. The top pass rushers will be long gone too, perhaps even Datone Jones. So if you’re looking at Kawann Short, Sylvester Williams or Percy Harvin, this is a no-brainer, right? Over the next few days we’ll focus on options with the #56 pick, which presumably will be spent on a defensive player (if they keep the pick).

There’s a lot to get excited about as you’ll see in the video below. It’ll make day one of the draft that little bit less exciting, but the Seahawks just acquired one of the best playmakers in the league. If they can keep him in tow, this could be a defining day for the franchise. It’s a big ‘if’ though.

What do you make of the trade? Let us know in the comments section and vote in the poll below.


The USC backup crew

Might Mike Morgan be the Jeron Johnson of the linebacker corps?

During an interview at the Scouting Combine Pete Carroll talked about the team’s needs, and one of the things that struck me was his seeming ease about the linebacker situation.  He joked about Seattle’s current linebacker situation at weakside linebacker, referring to his “USC backup crew” with a tone of affection.  While upfront about upgrading many areas of the team, Carroll implied that he was only going to seek “someone to compete” with this trio of players.

That group of linebackers- Malcolm Smith, Mike Morgan, and Allen Bradford- all played for Carroll at USC and all ran good forty times.  Bradford had a 4.56 (at 242 pounds), Morgan a 4.46 (pro-day), and Smith a 4.44.  Both Morgan and Smith tilt the scales under 230 pounds, often considered a “cutoff point” for most evaluators.  Bradford was a running back at USC and outside of his time on the practice squad last season, he hasn’t played linebacker since high school.  Factor in Korey Toomer (4.53), a 5th round pick from last season that spent some time on the practice squad, and we have four fast linebackers that can play the weak side already.

We already have a ton of fast linebacker prospects.  Granted, each and every one of them has an issue to deal with.  Mike Morgan is undersized.  Malcolm Smith is undersized and was highly injury prone at USC.  Allen Bradford is learning the ropes again at linebacker.  Korey Toomer was more of an athlete than linebacker last preseason- a player that struggled badly in everything other than his surprisingly potent pass rush ability.

If Seattle acquires another linebacker, and it sounds like they probably will, that player will have to compete with four other players for the final linebacker starting job.  Or maybe Seattle can’t make up their mind and ends up platooning multiple linebackers at the weakside- just like they did last season for Moffitt/Sweezy at guard and Johnson/Guy at big nickle safety.

It wasn’t long ago that I presented the case that Seattle might have to draft a fast linebacker early, because this draft class is thin in that area relative to previous years.  After hearing Pete Carroll’s comments and realizing how athletic our current backup linebackers are, I’m starting to think the opposite might true- Seattle might add a linebacker in the back half of the draft- barring a draft coup at linebacker falling to them in the 3rd or 4th round.  Seattle has the depth and talent to survive a season with a “backup crew” manning the weakside linebacker spot- arguably the least valuable position on our defense- a position where “adequate” is the norm for most 4-3 defenses.

Morgan went undrafted and Bradford was a late round pick by Tampa Bay as a running back that was quickly released that same year.  Seattle signed Bradford off waivers, placed him on the practice squad, and in late December of last year, finally promoted him to the active roster.  Bradford missed most of the 2012 preseason but I personally thought he impressed in his lone performance against Oakland.  His speed and size were plainly evident.  He could lay a hit and played with more instincts than I would have expected.  Toomer was a 5th round pick last year and Smith was a 7th round pick in 2011.  The combined draft expense of these four linebackers was the same as the price the Jets paid Seattle to move down four spots in the second round last year.

As you can see, Seattle is in the business of hunting value at linebacker.  Why does it feel like we’ve seen this before?  It’s because Seattle has used the same scatter shot approach to cornerback and big nickle safety.  Seattle has drafted or acquired via undrafted free agency a corner and a safety in every offseason to date.  That tactic netted us a megastar in Richard Sherman, a pro-bowler in Kam Chancellor, and several quality backups and special teams contributors.

It would appear that so far Seattle is using the same tactic at weak side linebacker.  Malcolm Smith had two touchdowns last season on special teams, and has been no stranger to quality play even though he rarely sees the field.  Mike Morgan filled in for both Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright at times and was a minor star during the 2012 preseason.  He’s a lot like our big nickle safety Jeron Johnson but at linebacker.  Both are players with strong preseason performances and have shown themselves to be adequate or better in real games.  Morgan plays bigger than his 226 pound size and Johnson also plays above his size and speed limitations.  Johnson is a fringe starter (in nickle packages), but a quality one just the same.  Might Mike Morgan be our fringe starter at weakside linebacker in 2013?

If Bradford can build on his good showing in the preseason finale last year, Seattle might already have a fairly robust competition underway for the final starting linebacker job.  And all are fast enough to offer Seattle a fast starter at that position.

Then you factor Korey Toomer’s athletic upside, and you can see why Pete doesn’t seem terribly stressed about weakside linebacker.  He’d still like to add one more, but I no longer think that indicates a priority.  It indicates that he’s in the habit of spending late round picks on scatter shot choices to increase depth and competition, and to perhaps find a diamond in the rough while doing it if he’s lucky.

It’s also possible that Pete Carroll and John Schneider just don’t like this linebacker class very much, and could be holding off for a future offseason which boasts a stronger group, as they did at receiver during the 2012 draft.  I wouldn’t rule that out, especially since this draft isn’t all that great in my opinion for fast linebackers.

With this in mind, I’m going to very quickly post some thoughts on the all the fast linebackers or potential fast linebackers that performed at the combine.  Of course, you will always have non-combine players to watch for (one example being former USC athlete/linebacker Jordan Campbell), so this list won’t be 100% comprehensive, but it should cover all the options that clocked around 4.65 or under (or didn’t run but would be expected to be that fast).  The fastest linebackers run in the mid 4.4s, and the slowest run in the mid 4.8s, so I think 4.65 is a good median to work with.  Remember, these aren’t scouting reports, just quick hits of what I think of each player in a few sentences after watching each of them during the past few weeks:

Zaviar Gooden (4.47): Gooden is the only linebacker this year with clear 4.4s type speed in this draft.  On tape, he is a slight framed looking player but the speed really shows.  I think his instincts are just fine- but he is so aggressive that he often overshoots and misses tackles.  Obviously, with speed like that, Gooden’s upside in coverage is pretty good.  Hands down the fastest linebacker in this draft, but funny enough, he’d only be our 4th fastest linebacker on our team if the Seahawks draft him.  Mid round projection.

Arthur Brown (estimated speed:  4.45 to 4.55 range): Brown did not run at the combine.  Brown has speed and impressive burst, but like Alec Ogletree he is more of an athlete than a linebacker.  Pete Carroll raved about Brown coming out of high school though, calling him the best linebacker he’d seen in many years.  And coming from a guy that ran linebacker U, that’s saying something.  Brown struggled for most of his college career before finally posting a solid season in 2012 for Kansas State.  I don’t think Seattle would draft Brown early, but if he slipped to round three I could see the temptation being there.

Jelani Jenkins (estimated speed: 4.50 to 4.60 range): Jenkins didn’t run at the combine, but you can see on tape that he can cover ground in a hurry.  That’s about the only thing I like about him, though.  He utterly lacks physicality- it’s like watching Kelly Jennings the linebacker.  John Schneider said he thought the underclassman linebacker group was intriguing.  Jenkins is the only underclassman linebacker to possess above average speed (Alec Ogletree ran in the 4.7s).  I’d hate this pick, but it bears watching.  Funny enough, by sheer coincidence both Brown and Jenkins will have their pro days tomorrow (March 12th), so we should get a more scientific idea of their speed by then.  Mid round projection.

Cornelius Washington (4.55): Washington was more of a defensive end for Georgia, but he’s so underdeveloped that it’s not a stretch to draft him as a linebacker/end hybrid and see where he ends up.  His combination of size, speed, strength and athleticism is highly reminiscent of Aaron Curry, which is actually a good thing for a potential late round pick.  Pete Carroll was a huge fan of Curry’s potential before arriving in Seattle and discovering the horrible truth.  Washington could be a player to watch as a high upside project at either outside linebacker or LEO.  Mid to late round projection.

Trevardo Willams (4.57): Standing just 6’1″ with 32″ arms, Williams will not see his game translate as a defensive end in the pros.  However, his build, speed, and diagnosis ability paint a promising picture as a linebacker convert.  If viewed as a linebacker, Williams would be one of the fastest linebackers in this draft despite also weighing 241 pounds.

Jonathan Bostic (4.61): Bostic has just okay speed, basically on the good side of average.  His tape leaves a lot to be desired.  He wears concrete shoes in zone coverage, hardly even tries to get off blocks and reads the run poorly.  If Seattle did draft him, I would be shocked if he made the roster.  Played middle linebacker.  Mid round projection.

Ty Powell (4.64): Powell is a rare player capable of playing at all three levels of a defense.  He played safety for a junior college, but has the size to play defensive end and the speed to play linebacker or safety.  Powell played at the lowest level possible, so it’s hard to judge speed fairly, but he looked fast and there’s a little Bobby Boucher in him as a hitter.  Powell could be a player to keep an eye on in the very late rounds as Seattle likes versatile players with physicality.

Jamie Collins (4.64): Collins made a name for himself at the combine with a towering 41.5″ vertical jump and a combine best broad jump.  Collins played mostly standup end and when he wasn’t doing that he was a 3-point stance end.  He plays the position like a linebacker though, which is why he is often listed as one.  Collins doesn’t handle blocks well and plays mentally slow.  He did have good production, but he played in a small conference and his tape hardly wows.  In a lot of ways, Collins reminds me of a slower Korey Toomer.  Mid to late round projection.

Sio Moore (4.65): Moore is a one of the better linebackers in this draft and boasts one of the most compete packages of skills.  He is worth respecting as a LEO type pass rusher, he’s quick to diagnose, he reads a quarterback’s eyes in zone coverage while trying to hide his presence by staying low, and he’s a good tackler.  If only he had Gooden’s speed, he’d be a star.  Unfortunately, Moore’s speed on tape looks as average as his combine number indicates.  I personally don’t think he’s fast enough for Pete (same goes for Khaseem Green who ran a 4.71), but we’ll see.  Round two or three projection.

AJ Klein (4.66): Though average on the track, Klein is sneaky fast and explosive in short areas.  Klein rarely ventures behind enemy lines and makes his living on damage reducing tackles downfield.  Klein takes on blockers willingly without losing himself to them, and has excellent instincts and reaction speed.  He has the short area burst to be an effective zone coverage player.  Klein’s upside is fairly grounded, but he’s a natural linebacker and you might even say he’s a bargain bin version of Luke Kuechly with less speed and less upside.  Played middle linebacker.  Mid round projection.

Now, compare those times to what Seattle already has.  Smith a 4.44.  Wagner a 4.45.  Morgan a 4.46.  Toomer a 4.53.  Bradford a 4.56.  Wright a 4.75.  Seattle doesn’t need another slow run enforcer like Wright (Mike Morgan did a great job in that role during the preseason despite his size, and Bradford has the size and power to be a natural SAM).  The fastest linebacker in this whole draft might not even crack Seattle’s lineup.  Even the undeveloped athletes at linebacker would be less athletic than many of the options we already have.  That says to me that Seattle probably won’t invest big at linebacker this year, instead opting for a late round or undrafted prospect to bring in for competition.  I could potentially see Seattle showing interest in Arthur Brown if he slides.  A selection of Alec Ogletree, Khaseem Greene, or Sio Moore in the earlier rounds would surprise me.  Gooden, Washington, Williams, Powell and Collins strike me as the most realistic options as they will probably be selected in the rounds 4-7 range of the draft.

*(Interestingly, Malcolm Smith is the brother of Steve Smith the lesser (the one who had 1200+ yards with the Giants in 2009).  Steve Smith was a member of the St. Louis Rams last season.  Another linebacker with a famous brother, Arthur Brown is the brother of the Eagles breakout running back Bryce Brown.)

Sunday draft notes

Good news for Jarvis Jones today it seems, but will the NFL agree?

Better news for Jarvis Jones

We expected to have a better idea of Jarvis Jones’ stenosis issue after the combine, but there were no leaked medical reports to confirm or deny what USC had feared back in 2009. So we were left to speculate. Clearly teams will be wary of anything to do with stenosis, particularly if there are life threatening consequences. Yet Jones wasn’t only cleared to play by Georgia, he also had two relatively healthy seasons in the SEC.

Today, Dan Pompei provided the first piece of seemingly valid information on this matter. And it appears to be good news for Jarvis Jones:

Jones’ neck injury is starting to look like it might be a non-issue on draft day, and there is little chance he will fall out of the top 10. In a medical report that was sent to NFL teams, leading orthopedist Craig Brigham refutes that Jones ever had a significant spinal cord contusion. When he was at Southern Cal, the pass rusher was diagnosed with one, and Southern Cal did not allow him to play in 2010. Jones transferred to Georgia and played two seasons with no problems. Brigham concluded that Jones either had a very mild incident of spinal cord concussion or merely a stinger that has long since resolved. Even if another similar injury occurred, Brigham concluded it would not be a career ending issue. After recently examining Jones, Brigham concluded, “Jarvis is cleared to play without restriction.”

Of course, this is only one man’s take. USC and Georgia clearly didn’t share the same opinion on his future. There’s a chance other experts (including team doctors) will diagnose the situation differently than Craig Brigham.

If you want to assume they won’t, then Jones is back in contention to be a top-15 pick. This isn’t a defining report that renders the issue a non-factor. Even so, it only takes one team to make a similar assessment to ensure he is an early pick next month.

Cullen Jenkins update

Anyone hoping he’d be signing in Seattle will be disappointed…


Eddie Lacy still injured

According to Adam Schefter, Lacy will not be able to work out at Alabama’s pro-day on March 13th. He missed the combine in February due to a hamstring problem. He will conduct an individual work out at some point but no date has been set.

It’s not been a great off-season for Lacy so far. He turned up at Indianapolis 11lbs heavier than his listed playing weight, then admitted he’d not necessarily kept in shape since the Notre Dame game.

He ended the season on fire, making the most of Alabama’s top-tier offensive line. For teams like St. Louis that’ll be looking for a power back, he makes some sense even in round one. Yet if the injury issues linger, if he can’t work out before the draft and if teams are concerned about his conditioning, he could easily drop. Plenty of teams find viable runner’s later in the draft. And while there’s always an Alfred Morris or Arian Foster to be had, a bad off-season can have an impact.

Personally, I’d like to avoid facing Lacy twice a season. The Rams are going to need a productive back to compete with Seattle and San Francisco in the NFC West. Lacy fits the bill, but is he working his way out of first round consideration?

Revisionist history

Bucky Brooks – March 2013. He was asked where Geno Smith would rank among the 2011 quarterbacks (Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder):

“I like him better than I liked Jake Locker. I think I liked him a little more than I liked Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert I wasn’t a big fan of. ”

Bucky Brooks – March 2011. He had Gabbert at #5 in his mock draft:

“You (Arizona) better take Blaine Gabbert at five. Big, athletic quarterback. Strong arm. Can make all the throws. Ken Whisenhunt will build an offense around his skills and I think the Arizona Cardinals offense will get back on track.”

Kawann Short unimpressive against Wisconsin

Watching a defensive lineman competing against Wisconsin is always a good benchmark. The Badgers consistently churn out big, aggressive, dominating run blockers who do a decent job protecting the quarterback.

It stands to reason that any defensive tackle drafted by the Seahawks is going to need to be able to defend the run. They have to be stout. While the teams biggest priority is to improve the pass rush, they can’t afford to walk into two games against the Niners with a weak interior defensive line. For all of Colin Kaepernick’s athletic ability outside of the hash marks, they’re still a power running team.

Purdue’s Kawann Short is a decent pass rusher, with good finishing speed and a decent swim move. He exploits gaps and works well into the backfield. At the Senior Bowl he was probably the most productive defensive lineman on the field after Ziggy Ansah.

Yet against Wisconsin (see below) I think he struggled. And that’s not a particularly good sign for anyone hoping to see Short in the Pacific North West.

My offseason plan

It’s spring forward tonight, meaning that we all lose an hour of sleep.  I was going to do my Tyler Eifert writeup tonight, but in the interest of getting some sleep I’ll just link this offseason plan– rife with rosterbation- that I just completed on the Seahawks.net forums.   It’s a long read but if you are into this kind of thing you might enjoy it.  I think it’s extremely doubtful that Seattle will draft a tight end in round 1, but if they did, I think Eifert would be the perfect match for our offense.

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