If you are a fan of well written articles and an evaluator who just “gets it”, I’d recommend The Rookie Scouting Portfolio by Matt Waldman.  I like him personally because I watch tape on prospects and invariably come to the same conclusions he does.  Like me, he’s one of a few charter members of the Russell Wilson NFL fanclub that staked their claim before last season.  If you read the Studying the Asterisk article that made the rounds last year, then you are already familiar with his work.  I guess this has nothing to do with the topic at hand, but do yourself a favor and bookmark his blog if you haven’t already.  It’s great.

I try to check in with his site every couple of weeks. It’s useful as a double check for my own analysis; to see if there are nuances he picked up that I missed.  It was during my most recent visit that I noticed a link to a peculiar draft website that has apparently gotten a lot of pub in social media circles.  The site is titled “Bill Walsh: How I Evaluate Each Position.”  The site is a clever idea- a compilation of various written analyses by Walsh covering every starting position.  Walsh, one of the greatest and most influential NFL coaches of all time, was an intellectual above all else, and his analysis remains relevant all these years later.

As Danny Kelly is fond of pointing out, Pete Carroll is a bit of a Bill Walsh protege, having been San Francisco’s defensive coordinator in the mid-90s while Walsh served as a consultant.  In Win Forever, Pete Carroll says himself that Bill Walsh was a major influence in how he evaluates and handles his players, specifically at quarterback.  That proved valuable as Carroll mentored one star quarterback after another at USC, only to see most of them flounder when leaving Carroll’s side for the NFL.  Reading Bill Walsh talk about quarterbacks, you’d think he was talking future tense about Russell Wilson, when he’s actually talking past tense about Wilson’s boyhood idol, Joe Montana.

I’ve often thought that Carroll was the 21st century equivalent of Walsh:  brilliant, unique, creative, and easy to learn from.  His boyish exuberance stems not from some mystical fountain of youth, but a mind that never tires of new ideas and new challenges.  Walsh was stern if not prickly, but his passion for the game burned just the same.  Both have proven masters at building dynastic rosters on the fly from spare parts and savvy drafting.  If you know where to look, you can see Walsh’s fingerprints in many of the things that Pete has done.

I can’t say for sure if Pete and Bill would see eye to eye on defensive tackles, although reading Walsh’s breakdown of the position, it sounded exactly like the kind of player the Seahawks need:

Ideal size: 6-2, 290

Must have the girth, strength, ballast to hold off the guard, or to step into a tackles’ block without being knocked off the line of scrimmage.

Quick, strong hands to grab and pull are critical. This is common with the great tackles. The hands, the arms, the upper body strength and then the quick feet to take advantage of a moving man, just getting him off balance.

You are looking for somebody who can move down the line of scrimmage and make a tackle, pursuing a ball-carrier. That would be lateral quickness in a short area, being able to get underway and move over and through people. If you get knocked off the line, or get knocked sideways or knocked off balance, you cannot play this position. You must be able to work your way through people, so that kind of strength is a must.

The best defensive tackles move the offensive guard back into the quarterback. (emphasis mine) They won’t have nearly as many sacks as others, but if they can move the guard back into the quarterback, then the quarterback has to avoid his own lineman as if he were a pass rusher before he throws the ball. So this is a key ability.

On a few occasions already, Rob has highlighted pass rush at defensive tackle as Seattle’s biggest need.  Derek Stephens voiced similar sentiments at his blog during his roster analysis.  But here is where I interject: with respect to Seattle’s needs, guys that can provide production from the interior are extremely rare and ridiculously valuable.  The Seahawks registered 36 sacks last season, tied with Buffalo for 18th in the NFL.  They were 16 sacks behind the league leaders Denver and St. Louis.  If the ultimate goal is to reach the 50 sack plateau, Seattle has a long way to go, and even Geno Atkins wouldn’t add 16 sacks on his own.  The Seahawks actually produced 9 total sacks from the defensive tackle position last season anyway- so it’s not like the group was a pile of crap by any means.

Of course, there is so much more to pressure than sacks, and this might be more true at defensive tackle than anywhere else.  Which is good, because I really doubt we are finding an interior 10+ sack a year monster in this draft class.  If a scheme is built to have the 3-tech play the role of the cleanup hitter, it wont work unless you have a hall of famer at that spot.

But Walsh ends his analysis with something hopeful.  Most people judge a 3-tech by how often he’s getting into the backfield: how many sacks and tackles for loss he accumulates.  Walsh says the great defensive tackles aren’t racking up stats, but rather they are pushing the guard into the quarterback and forcing him to move.  John Schneider, when talking about Bruce Irvin in his combine interview today, also used that term.  He specifically mentioned that Irvin was forcing the quarterback to move.  (On a related note, he singled out Jason Jones as a free agent they want to “keep an eye on” in free agency).

I really doubt we’ll find the next Geno Atkins this year, but we might find a component pass rusher: a player that can be the table setter.  Finding the next Derek Wolfe might prove to be enough.  Not enough to reach 52 sacks of course, but a positive first step in that direction.

Here are how some of the best defensive tackle options stack up as pocket pushers:

Star Lotulelei:

Though inconsistent and under-developed, I’d wager that Pete Carroll and Dan Quinn salivate when thinking about what they could do with Lotulelei’s raw ability.  I saw one play against USC’s stellar run blocking line where he drove back a double team straight backward and pancaked both blockers- and this was on a rushing attempt.  I have literally never seen that before.

Lotulelei is quick off the snap and possesses near Suh levels of pure strength.  He tends to keep his arms locked on the target and seems almost completely foreign to the basics of arm technique: almost no attempts to body control, yanking to defeat balance, rips or swims.  He seems perfectly content to treat most guards like lineman sleds.  And often, it works.

At Utah, Lotulelei was not a consistent pocket collapsing force.  He could be in the pros.  He has by far the most untapped potential at the position in the 2013 draft.  He will likely be a top five overall selection, and barring a buddy-buddy trade with Jacksonville at #2, I really doubt we’d have a shot at him.  And yes, that trade would cost way more than just Matt Flynn.

Sharrif Floyd:

Floyd is a lean 303 pounds and probably the best pure athlete in this DT class.  (I consider Ansah to be a 5-tech with interior versatility).  Floyd’s first step and arm use are median level at best compared to his peers, but he still creates pressure by never giving up.  He never stands still or concedes- his constant thrashing and fighting reminds me of watching a rodeo bull.

Floyd tracks the ball very well and I’d easily say that he’s better against the run than he is at disrupting the pass.  After watching several of his games, I wasn’t shocked at all to learn that he’s tallied just 4.5 sacks over 3 seasons.  Floyd just isn’t a very good pass rusher, despite being a gifted and versatile athlete.  Reminds me of Kentwan Balmer when he came out of North Carolina in that regard, though I think Floyd will have a better career.

Florida mixed 3-4 and 4-3 looks.  I saw Floyd play every position possible on both of those fronts, which is pretty impressive.  He has long, strong arms and can disengage from run blocks well enough that I think he can make a good NFL career as a run stopper, which is why I think he needs to play either a 5-tech or a 3-4 defensive end position in the NFL.  Playing in such a role gives him more space to use his athleticism, and doesn’t require him to bag tons of sacks to be considered good.  I think his hype level is a little out of control, but then again 3-4 defensive ends have been known to go early and there aren’t a ton of them at the top this year.  The former GM who first highlighted Floyd as a top 10 pick was Scott Pioli, who drafted a 3-4 defensive end himself in the top three picks just 4 years ago.

Sheldon Richardson:

Richardson is a well balanced defensive tackle who’s most prominent feature is his speed and pursuit capability.  Mike Mayock might have said it best when he observed that Richardson moves like a linebacker at the defensive tackle position.  Richardson is a red-ass that keeps after the play even when it’s far away from him, and can be seen chasing down tackles from 20 or more yards away several times a game.  He collapses the pocket by far the most often out of the known 2013 defensive tackle options, mostly because guards cede so much ground out of respect for his speed and explosiveness.

I had to retire from Division II because of people who played the game like Richardson does.  I couldn’t protect my body with my short arms and defensive tackles would rip me forward to execute the swim move and I just couldn’t stop it.  Ceding ground with a backpedal helped, because it’s harder to swim someone when they are moving away from you.  Of course, doing so came at a cost as I was essentially walking the defensive player into the pocket.  This is why a pocket can only last so long, as guards and tackles are often ceding ground strategically while protecting themselves from their assignments next sudden attack.

This is what Richardson does to guards.  He has a strong upper body with violent arms, and guards have to respect his quick step and ability to crash a gap with his speed.  I tallied a very high number of plays where Richardson got 3 yards deep in the pocket in little time despite doing very little to earn it because the guard was appeasing him with real estate.

Richardson only had 4 sacks last season, and just 2 sacks the season before, but those stats don’t tell the story of how he impacts the pocket.  He had a ton of near sacks and quarterback hits, too.

I think Richardson will probably go in the top 14 picks- I just can’t see him getting past Carolina barring a disaster.  Richardson stands so far ahead of his peers at collapsing the pocket that I’d say he’s worth trading up for, even though it will mean losing picks in a draft where a 2nd rounder feels an awful lot like a 1st.

Kawann Short:

Short is maybe the draft’s “craftiest” defensive tackle- an expert at exploiting mistakes and sneaking through the smallest of gaps to gain backfield penetration.  He’s particularly effective on running plays against a zone blocking scheme.  Zone blocking scheme tends to move it’s blockers one direction in unison like a wave.  Short seems to have figured out a way to jump those gaps at the start of those runs, as I saw him break into the backfield far more against zone runs than anything else.

Short has by far the best college production among this group (excluding Brandon Williams from Division II), posting six or more sacks each of the last three seasons, with 49.5 total tackles for loss during that span.  And until I read that Bill Walsh analysis, Short was my favorite defensive tackle in this draft.

The problem with Short is that despite his polish and skill, he’s more of a mistake exploiter than a pocket collapser.  He’ll scatter a few quality plays from time to time, but I would estimate that he pushes the pocket with about half the frequency that Sheldon Richardson does.

I see Short as an excellent option for a 4-3 team that likes to blitz.  Spread the blocking lanes out with blitzers and he’ll exploit that extra space.  Problem is, Carroll’s late season actions indicate that he wants to reduce his blitz count going forward and rely on a four man base rush instead.  Since Pete has come here, he’s had to blitz to get sack production and guys like Irvin and Clemons have typically struggled without that boost.  Drafting Short will give us a weapon, but it might also increase our dependency on the blitz to get the most out of him.

Or to put it another way, I see Short as a guy that is a clean up hitter more than a table setter.  He doesn’t make the players around him better per se, but if you help him out a little, he’ll get you some production.

Sylvester Williams:

Williams is a complete defensive tackle who at times can be quite dominant.  He’s bigger than most 3-techs at 313 pounds, and holds up very well against the run with a strong anchor and good rush awareness.  He could easily transition to the 1-tech if needed, or Red Bryants “big 5-tech” role for that matter.  That versatility holds a lot of appeal for John Schneider who prizes versatile players, so it should hardly be a shock that a Seahawks scout was seen talking to Williams at the Senior Bowl.  If Seattle allows Branch to leave in free agency it could potentially telegraph an intention to select Williams, as there aren’t a ton of versatile defensive tackles in this draft that are quality options.

Williams’ best asset is his fast first step, which is by far his best tool for achieving penetration and push.  Brandon Mebane once had 5 sacks playing as a run stuffing 1-tech in 2008.  He did it because a 310+ pound man that explodes into a gap before you’ve even fully left your stance is something that’s really hard to stop.  Mebane’s 2008 season was so impressive that Seattle moved Mebane to the 3-tech hoping to optimize his talent during the following two seasons.  It didn’t work out, and drafting a similar player like Williams carries the risk of repeating history.

Which isn’t to say that having an excellent first step is a bad thing, and fortunately Williams also possesses a strong upper body and active hands.  Yet strangely, for a player with size, power, fast hands and fast feet, Williams does not push the pocket as often as I would have expected.  With Williams you know whether he will be successful or not within the first second.  If he doesn’t succeed exploding into a gap and a chance for a swim move doesn’t present itself, he’s often content with a stonewall.  It may be partially due to his short arms- which are just 32 ⅝” long.  When I watch Williams I see a lot of effort with his hands but not a corresponding amount of results.

Williams is a good, well rounded player, and displays I think the best awareness of any defensive tackle in the draft- rarely will you see a defender that can sniff out and anticipate a screen faster than Williams can.  I see him as being a long term quality starter in the Alan Branch mold, but not a difference maker in the pass rush and not a consistent pocket collapser.

Brandon Williams:

Brandon Williams is the most unique defensive tackle in the draft.  Looking like a “chiseled” 340 pounds, Williams is a better athlete than most players his size.  Based on what I saw of him during the Senior Bowl and practices, he has a fast first step and at time shows the best pure power in the draft outside of Lotulelei.

What surprised me the most was how good his arms were- he is surprisingly one of the best defensive tackles in the draft at shedding blocks with his sudden arm moves and substantial upper body strength.  What surprised me even more was how bad he was against the run despite weighing 340 pounds.  He can get bulldozed by double teams and pushed back even by single blocks, often because of high pad level and an inability to easily locate the ball while being drive blocked.

You would think at 340 pounds Williams would be a pure nose tackle, but his strengths and weaknesses align ironically with the 3-tech role instead.  Williams played mostly 3-tech for Missouri Southern, a Division II school, and currently holds his school’s all time sack record with 29 sacks over 3 seasons.  Williams was up and down at the Senior Bowl, though he turned heads with a strong final day of practice.  People often say that Senior Bowl practice matters more to evaluators than the game itself, and that strong practice has helped remove some of the level of competition fears surrounding him.  It’s been enough for some to suggest he could be a potential top forty pick, and it’s considered unlikely that he’ll get out of the 3rd round.

Williams is a strange prospect, and Carroll does like “unique” talents.  Yet as the slowest member of this defensive tackle group I’m not sure how Carroll would react to that; since he worships speed.  Bill Walsh was pretty big on speed too, and in fact it was a crushing defeat to Walsh’s team during Pete’s early coaching days that served as the formative moment of that philosophy.  At least, that’s how Pat Kirwan remembers it.

I’m not sure if Williams fits, but he can push the pocket better than most, and is a better pure pass rusher with his technique than you would think.

Jordan Hill:

Hill isn’t very big nor does he anchor well, but he is probably good enough against drive blocks to be a non-specialist defensive tackle.  He partially makes up for this by being consistently very fast off the snap, and keeps a good pad level.

Hill’s uses his arms a lot like a 3-4 defensive end would, excelling at disengaging via extension, not unlike Greg Scruggs but with shorter, weaker arms.  He has excellent backfield vision and tracks the ball well.  If I had to highlight Hill for being the best at anything out of this group, I think he might have the best short area quickness.  He can cover two yards side to side very fast, and despite being weak to interior drive blocks he’s actually an asset against slower developing stretch runs because he can disengage and cover short areas of grass very quickly.  Not only is he very quick, but he’s exceptionally instinctive and knows where to move to keep a runner in front of him while keeping his shoulders square.

Unfortunately, Hill can’t seem to use his shed ability to actually swim past defenders, which I theorize is from a lack of functional upper body strength.  If he had it, I think he’d be using it.  He also lacks lower body strength and is impotent as a bull rusher.

Hill is a bit like Kawann-Short-lite as a 3-tech.  He can sometimes slip through exploitable mistakes but he doesn’t force guards back.  He could be a serviceable 3-tech, but not a star.  I like him more as a 3-4 defensive end, where he can use his quickness around the edge more and will get more mileage out of his talent for two-gapping and reading the football.  Then again, Hill stands just 6’1″ and doesn’t appear to have the longest arms, so he’d be a bit of a gamble in such a role.  Those factors might explain why he’s expected to be drafted in the mid to late rounds despite having some talent.

So who’s the best?

I would say that the only great pocket collapsing defensive tackle in this draft is Sheldon Richardson, and I’d say he’s far ahead of second place.  I think Star Lotulelei comes next, followed by Brandon Williams, Sylvester Williams, Kawann Short, Sharrif Floyd and Jordan Hill.  Every one of these players has something he’s special at, but Richardson is the guy who will disrupt the passing game the most.  His speed is a huge bonus for our speed obsessed front seven as well.

Walsh’s criteria is illuminating when it comes to sorting the great players from the good ones.  I could envision scenarios where all of these options could become worthwhile component pass rushers, with Richardson being the clear best choice to be an impact player for Pete Carroll’s needs.  I think Short grades out better overall than his ability to push the pocket indicates, and could be a great pick if Seattle is willing to design a more aggressive defense that can create enough confusion for Short to exploit mistakes and hesitation.

I’m working on a piece covering the defensive tackle class, which I should have posted very late tonight.  In the meantime, PatrickH mentioned this article in the comments yesterday which links the Seahawks to Cumberland University tight end B.J. Stewart:

Stewart came to CU as a wrestler, reaching the No. 1 ranking in the nation in the heavyweight division for two weeks during the 2009-10 academic year. He posted a 40-24 overall mark in two years and finished his sophomore season ranked 10th nationally…

“NFL scouts love former wrestlers. If he had played four years at even a Division II school, he might be up there on some mock draft lists right now…”

Three scouts called me from Montgomery after watching him practice there. The Seahawks have shown the most interest and have been on him the longest, but I’ve recently sent film to the Falcons and the Lions…

After starting two years at defensive end, Stewart led the 2012 Bulldogs with 21 receptions for 396 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 18.9 yards per catch.

There are some videos of Stewart on youtube.  I remember watching game film in high school that was filmed better, but if you have a lot of patience it’s out there.  Stewart is even skinnier looking than this 6’5″ 253 listing indicates- I’m going to assume that Seattle probably views him as a Joker/H-back type.  Could be a player to watch in the very late rounds or undrafted free agency.

In a year where there are seemingly no conspicuous talent dropoff points, perhaps nothing defines the parity level of the 2013 draft more than it’s remarkably strong class of small school prospects.  Typically, these kind of players are late round picks or go undrafted.  John Schneider has dabbled with small schools from time to time- spending a late pick on Mark Legree and signing Josh Portis in free agency.  Occasionally you’ll see a Brian Quick or Jared Veldheer grace the top 3 rounds, but it’s hardly a regular occurrence.

Given the incredibly unsettled nature of the first four or five rounds this year, it’s a prime opportunity for small school players to break into the conversation.  Already, we’re hearing a lot of insider talk that this is exactly the case.  First, it was scouts raving about Louisiana Tech’s Quinton Patton at around the time the Senior Bowl happened.  Patton went from a likely late pick to a likely 2nd rounder.  You have Robert Alford and Jordan Mills who I highlighted yesterday.  Many scouts believe there is “no doubt” that Alford will be a 2nd round pick, as he’s expected to put on a show at the NFL Combine.  There is talk that Mills could go in the 3rd round.

And then you have Eric Fisher out of Central Michigan- a player who is already considered a 1st round lock and could go top ten.  Florida International’s Jonathan Cyprien is ranked as the second best strong safety by NFLDraftscout.com and has a real chance to be a top 50 pick.  Cyprien’s teammate, defensive end Tourek Williams, has received glowing mention from some circles as well (you can even find two full game compilations of him on youtube).  A 340 pound defensive tackle out of Missouri Southern named Brandon Williams turned some heads when he flashed dominance on the final day of Senior Bowl practices, and some (sources from Rotoworld.com) have now said that his stock has risen as high as the early 2nd round.

One of the fastest rising tight ends is Vance McDonald out of Rice.  He’s drawing comparisons to the Gronk, whether that’s fair or not.  It is now widely believed that he will be off the board in the top sixty picks, barring a disaster at the combine.  Perhaps you’ve heard of Zac Dysert?  He’s out of Miami of Ohio.  Western Kentucky’s Quanterus Smith is among the better LEO options in the middle rounds.  And then there’s Marshall’s Aaron Dobson, who’s slowly been working his way up the pecking order of wide receivers and may find himself going in the first two rounds.

But by far my favorite of these players are two that have been talked about very little in the media, and who have completely unpredictable draft stock.  And as luck would have it, these players play positions of major need for Seattle:  pass rusher and wide receiver.

You’ve probably read the name “Tony Pauline” quite a few times on this blog.  The Sports Illustrated writer runs draftinsider.net and has been a favorite of both Rob and I for a few years now.  He gets information straight from anonymous scouts and executives, which has proven remarkably accurate.  Last year for example, most people thought that Courtney Upshaw and Zach Brown were likely mid to late 1st round picks, until Pauline revealed a consensus big board from several NFL GMs that listed neither on the top 32, and the data seemed to indicate that Seattle would have a real shot at Brown even at the 43rd overall pick.  Upshaw turned into an early 2nd round pick by the Ravens, and Brown lasted until the Titans at the 52nd overall selection.

As the Senior Bowl was wrapping up, Tony Pauline led off one of his updates speaking of a “super sleeper” at wide receiver.

The name making the rounds in the scouting community as one of the biggest sleepers at the receiver position is Courtney Gardner of Sierra College.  The 6-foot, 3-inch/220lb pass catcher was expected to play for Oklahoma in 2013 but opted for the NFL draft after academic “difficulties”.  We hear scouts have been raving about the physical skills Gardner brings to the field.  Besides his large frame the big pass catcher also has the speed (10.7 sec in the 100 meters) to match.  Even college coaches in the area are awed by his ability on the field but focusing at the task at hand seems to be an issue.

Gardner’s compilation video:

While it’s clear that Gardner still has a lot to learn, you can see where the scouting community’s enthusiasm is coming from.  Gardner has the movement talent of someone like Golden Tate or Percy Harvin, but in a 6’3″, 220 pound body.  He claims to have run a 4.38 forty (unofficially of course), and the speed on tape certainly seems to back that claim up.  However, he comes from pretty much the lowest level of competition possible, a junior college, and struggled with academics for a long time, which perhaps hints at a lack of work ethic (especially since it was a two year degree type college).  Curiously, Gardner was not given an invitation to the combine.  That may indicate that Gardner is destined to go undrafted, even if his tools are the stuff of legend.

Finally, I’ll end with the guy in the picture.  Armonty Bryant.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhStcILkeL4

I found it interesting that when asked if he’d been in contact with any NFL teams, he mentioned several, but there was one that leapt to his mind instantly.  You guessed it- the Seahawks.

Bryant made headlines for his dominating display in that Texas vs. Nation game by the way, which featured prominent players from major Division I schools.

Bryant has 35.5 inch arms, good size, undeniable athleticism, excellent pass rush technique, and a knack for getting to the quarterback.  In a recent interview Bryant mentioned that “people keep telling him” that he reminds them of Demarcus Ware.

Yet despite giving a pretty good camera interview and seeming like a good kid, he was busted last season for dealing drugs- during practice.  That’s about as flagrant of a criminal red flag as it gets, and that coupled with his coming from division II could double whammy his draft stock.  Regardless, Bryant remains an extremely intriguing prospect.  Like Russell Wilson last year, he deserves a post all to himself (which I never got around to writing last year, d’oh!).  I’ll probably wait until after the combine for that one.  In the meantime, this is a player to keep an eye on in Indy this weekend.  I included Bryant’s highlight reel below.

Take it for what it’s worth- the Seahawks have been connected to two little known small school prospects in the past few days.  Seattle showed interest in many players they did not draft last year, and often teams show interest in the players they don’t want, while never talking about the ones they do.  They did interview Russell Wilson at the Senior Bowl last year, and there were reports that they showed interest in players like Korey Toomer and Jeremy Lane last year, which was the only reason I even knew enough to mention them before that draft.

One of these players of interest is a 5’10” corner from Southeastern Louisiana by the name of Robert Alford.  You can watch his tape above.  That a player like this even has a 9 minute compilation video on youtube is pretty amazing.  I really have to commend youtube users for working overtime this year.  It is greatly appreciated.

Here is the article, and the quote that links Alford to Seattle:

“There’s no question he’s going to blow the Combine out of the water,” Golding said. “He’s a Combine guy. As far as running and agility and drills, he’ll be one of the top corners if not the top corner.”

Golding’s concern was how Alford would perform at the Senior Bowl with a totally new defense and new responsibilities. The reports were positive. Many NFL scouts are telling the coach that there’s “no doubt” Alford will be a second-round pick. Seattle, Cincinnati and Baltimore have particularly shown interest.

Alford plays far off the football, struggles with blocks and at times lacks physicality.  He wasn’t challenged very much though, and most of his tackles were on screens or passes that targeted other defensive players.  I hate the term “raw”, because it’s both vague and overused, but I think it’s safe to say that Alford isn’t yet impressive.  Or as Pete Carroll would probably think, Alford’s best football is still ahead of him.

Judging athleticism from a video isn’t a perfect science.  “Sneaky fast” isn’t just a cliche, field speed can be notoriously tough to quantify.  Consider Leon Washington, who doesn’t explode so much as glide, and yet he is one of the most prolific return men in NFL history.  His speed is real, even if he looks like he’s running slower than he’s capable of.  Alford has a similar gliding style of acceleration and speed, and wouldn’t you know it, he’s an effective kick returner himself, and his opponents know it.

I’m not excited about Alford, but I am interested to see what he does at the combine.  I don’t think Seattle would take a corner in the top two rounds, but it never hurts to do you homework.

The other player connected to Seattle was right tackle Jordan Mills from Louisiana Tech.  This information was second hand and came from the twitter page of Scott Bischoff.

Hearing that Seattle likes Louisiana Tech RT Jordan Mills a lot, earlier than you would think. He fits their running style perfectly.

— Scott Bischoff (@Bischoff_Scott) February 18, 2013

Hard to know what “earlier than you would think” means exactly.  Mill’s stock ranges from 3rd round to 5th round.  It’s not much, but below is a short video that shows 3 plays by Jordan Mills.

Obviously, I can’t scout from so little, but physically he reminds me of James Carpenter- very similar size and more of a mauler than an athlete.  Shows pretty good technique on the cut block and uses his arms well.  Feet seem slow, but then again he’s up against Damontre Moore in this clip.  He plays for the same team as Quinton Patton, so it could be worth checking out his pass protection in those videos.

Of course, it’s lying season, so it’s hard to tell if this interest is real at all.  I tend to lean towards “legit” ever so slightly, if only because we’re talking about a classic “coach him up” raw athlete at corner who fits Pete well, and a bulldozer at right tackle seems to fit Tom Cable’s modus operandi.  Where they actually end up drafted, who knows?

If nothing else, we can probably now deduce that corner and tackle are areas the Seahawks are looking at.  Either they really are interested in these players, or they are creating a smoke screen to distract from the players at those positions that they really like.  If they wanted to distract us with false interest, they wouldn’t use a corner to distract from a safety or a linebacker.  The tactic goes beyond simple deception- it’s main purpose is to help encourage players they are less interested in get selected ahead of players they are more interested in for a given position.

Last year John Schneider talked up Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, and even Austin Davis and Chandler Harnish, but rarely if ever talked about Russell Wilson.  I even said at the time that I thought that Schneider was probably talking up those players to help them get drafted before Wilson or Cousins.

It’s possible we could be seeing the same thing here- with Pete and John trying to muddy an already murky draft pool.

Or, we could be looking at two future Seahawks.  I guess we’ll find out.

Firstly, please welcome Kip Earlywine back to the blog. His latest article is now available so check it out by clicking here.

Mike Mayock said via conference call today that Cincinnati pass rusher Walter Stewart would be a top ten pick if healthy. It’s an interesting angle. I’ve posted his tape vs Pittsburgh above. I’ve not spent a great deal of time studying him, in part due to the injury issues. For more information, check out this piece by Jeff Darlington. Essentially, he has a rare back issue that could end his career before it’s really begun.

Mayock also mentioned today that he’d “bang the table” for Alec Ogletree as a top ten pick without the off-field issues, claimed Sheldon Richardson had “the movement skills of a linebacker” and projected Barkevious Mingo to go in the 25-40 range. Could he be an option for Seattle as another LEO prospect? Is he too similar to Bruce Irvin? Mingo might actually be a great option for Gus Bradley and Jacksonville at #33, presuming they go defensive tackle at #2.

Matt Barkley will not throw at the combine. This isn’t a surprise. In fact, I’m not sure why initial noises suggested Barkley would throw. He had nothing to gain aiming to unfamiliar guys in shorts in an unnatural environment, particularly as he’s still recovering from a shoulder injury. Instead, he’ll throw to Robert Woods at the USC pro-day. Wise decision.

Mike Florio reports that Barkley sent letters to all 32 NFL teams explaining his decision not to throw in Indianapolis.

Tony Pauline has updated his top-160 draft board today. A great sign of the depth available this year is the fact Pauline ranks Steadman Bailey and Robert Woods at #68 and #69 respectively. For me, Bailey is a fantastic and underrated prospect. I’ll have a piece about him on the blog tomorrow. He’s a top-40 player for me. I totally underestimated him during the season.

Danny Kelly at Field Gulls has put together a piece on what the Seahawks might be looking for during the combine work-outs: “Weeding through the vast amount of numbers won’t be easy, but here’s a quick little refresher course on what to keep an eye on, as it specifically relates to the Seahawks and their unique and mysterious grading scale.”

Dan Kadar at Mocking the Draft has an updated mock draft. The Seahawks take an interior pass rusher with upside. A player USC recruited during Pete Carroll’s tenure. And a guy who could continue to boost his stock at the combine this week.

Adam Schefter reports that Eddie Lacy won’t work out at the combine. A bad hamstring is not good news for a running back with first round potential:

After injuring his hamstring last week, Alabama RB Eddie Lacy now hopes to perform all drills at Alabama’s Pro Day on March 13. No combine.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 18, 2013

Gil Brandt names his top-25 players for the 2013 draft. No quarterbacks are named. The Seahawks pick at #25 with DeAndre Hopkins listed as the 25th best player. Interestingly, Sheldon Richardson is only at #19. I’d also argue Keenan Allen (#13) is too high and Eric Fisher (#22) is too low.

Albert Breer has a great piece on the changing ways of the combine and wonders if competitive drills are part of its future. The draft is becoming increasingly popular, and not just among over-anxious 20-year-old’s with self appointed ‘Senior Analyst’ titles. The combine is getting to be as big a deal as the draft itself. And as more and more people tune in, expect it to continue to adapt to a wider audience.

New Kansas City Chiefs GM Jon Dorsey had some high praise for Russell Wilson this week: “The most impressive interview I’ve ever had in the last 25 years of doing this? Russell Wilson. Wasn’t even close. You could feel that guy as a person, how strong he was, how intellectually deep he was, how mentally tough he was, that he had the charisma to lead other players. I always try to look at kids like I’m in the locker room and I’m a teammate. It was easy to see this guy leading a team.”

I’ve had a few people ask about a ‘big board’ type post and I’ve always been loathe to do those. Nothing makes me tune out more than hearing people refer to their ‘top-300 boards’ like anyone really cares who they have ranked at #277. For example, you will probably find the following sentence on a website such as B******r R****t shortly after the draft: “This is a bad pick because he’s only the 7th best safety on my top 300 board.”

Instead I decided to just throw down a list of my favourite players. I’m not going to pretend that I know who the 9th best punter is in the 2013 draft. I might even have missed a couple of names I’d want on there. These are a few guys that I like. There’s no specific order even though some of the more familiar names are at the top. I didn’t include certain positions — there’s only one quarterback because the Seahawks don’t need a quarterback, there’s no left tackles because the team doesn’t need a left tackle. There are a few safety’s listed but they are guys not necessarily going to go in the first or second round.

This April, roughly 255 amateur players will be drafted into the NFL.  Many hundreds more will be signed to post-draft contracts.  The amount of time required to sort, study, analyze, and choose among these options is staggering.  The process is urgent, challenging, sophisticated, and above all else:  guarded.  Like the sports world equivalent of the Manhattan Project.

And yet, for a process with enough information to fill a section at a library, draftniks and draftertainers find a way to boil it down to the most binary of terms, every year, without fail.  That distillation?  The draft is either “elite” or it isn’t.  And by elite, I mean elite in the top ten picks, which comprise just 4% of all the selections that will be made on draft weekend.  While GMs know perfectly well the value of a good 2nd round pick, draftertainers tend to display a laser focus on those high picks, as if to seriously suggest that those choices define the draft.

Pouring over this draft has been like pouring over a bag of dimes trying to figure out which ones are the shiniest.  But here’s the thing- it’s a really big bag of dimes.  While it’s true that relatively little separates the 3rd pick from the 33rd pick, there’s also little that separates the 50th pick from the 100th pick.  I haven’t been doing this forever, but I don’t believe I’ve ever seen a draft that was stronger top to bottom than this one.

It reminds me a little of 2009- some unremarkable yet over-hyped players dominated the top ten, and a lot of the talk before that draft was how it wasn’t a great draft.  Indeed, the first dozen picks of that draft were about as bust-laden as they come.  But for as bad as those early picks were, that draft recovered in a hurry.  After an atrocious top twelve, the next 50 picks took off, among them Clay Matthews, LeSean McCoy, Jairus Byrd, Brian Orakpo, Brian Cushing, Josh Freeman, Malcolm Jenkins, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Pettigrew, Percy Harvin, Alex Mack, Max Unger, Michael Oher, Vontae Davis, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, James Laurinaitis, Andy Levitre, Phil Loadholt, William Moore, Paul Kruger, and Sean Smith.  For good measure that draft also produced Mike Wallace in round three and Henry Melton in round four, and someone named Arian Foster went undrafted, thanks in part to Jim Mora.  And if you don’t know that story, take it from me, ignorance is bliss.

If there was ever a draft that made the obsession with top 10 picks look silly, it was that one.

I see history repeating itself in 2013.  Star Lotulelei will be like this year’s Aaron Curry, a guy who’s raw physical ability will entice enough to trump common sense and assure himself a selection in the top five picks.  Sharrif Floyd will be this year’s Tyson Jackson, who went from a 2nd round pick at the start of the year to a top 3 pick in late April.  It’s even possible they could be selected by the same team.  Matt Barkley is obviously this year’s Matt Stafford.  Mike Glennon and Ryan Nassib will battle for the honor of being this year’s Mark Sanchez.  EJ Manuel could very well be this year’s Pat White, and Geno Smith could end up having a similar up and down career to Josh Freeman. I never said this draft would be without it’s ugly parts.

But some early headscratchery aside, this draft will get awesome in a hurry.  You are going to see 1st round names going in the 2nd round, 2nd round names going in the 3rd round, and some 3rd round names going in the 5th round.  This draft is as unpredictable as anyone has seen in recent memory.  And the reason it’s unpredictable is because there might be 60 players who get talked about as top 32 round picks, and maybe 150 players who get talked about as top 60 picks.

The receiver and tight end class are incredibly deep.  As many as six tight ends could carry top 60 grades, and the list of top 100 receivers grows by the day.  Stedman Bailey and Markus Wheaton are great prospects.  They could go 25th overall, or they could go 125th overall.  There is just a sea of viable receivers this year.

Some of the best pass rushers are among the least heralded:  Jordan Hill, John Simon, Quanterus Smith, Armonty Bryant, Brandon Jenkins, Tank Carradine, David Bass, Corey Lemonier, Alex Okafor.  The first round will be dominated by defensive lineman, but the options remain deep long after despite that.

In a draft like this, a late first could look like Kawaan Short, a late second could look like Khaseem Greene, a late 3rd could look like Markus Wheaton, a late 4th could look like Jordan Reed.  Even in the 5th and 6th rounds, you’ll probably continue to hear familiar names get called.

And that is pretty damn exciting.  The homerun potential in this draft from start to finish is like Barry Bonds’ home run potential hitting off a tee in a little league game.

Who needs to tank a season for Julius Peppers at #2 when you can get Clay Matthews at #26?  Sure, it’s not that simple.  But elite talent rarely is.

Most people consider the first two rounds to be their “starter” rounds.  Let them think that.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks will do their thing from rounds 3-7, and celebrate a job well done.

Oh and hey, I’m back.  I hope you all are as jazzed as I am for this draft.

In my updated mock draft last week, I had the Seahawks taking Alec Ogletree at #25. He only lasted that far due to possible red flags over a four-game suspension in 2012 for a failed drugs test. His chances of making it into the 20’s (or later) increased this weekend with the news he was arrested and charged with DUI in Arizona a week ago.

Ogletree’s agent Pat Dye told Mike Florio at PFT:

“Last weekend, my client Alec Ogletree was pulled over for speeding and a lane violation in Arizon. After the officers smelled alcohol, they conducted tests and also cited him for DUI. Although Alec regrets this incident terribly, he is thankful that there was no accident and that no one was hurt. Because this matter is still pending, we cannot comment further publicly at this time.”

Quite aside from the rampant stupidity of drink driving, what on earth was Ogletree thinking? He’s currently in the middle of the biggest job interview of his career. You’d expect a person in that situation to be dedicated to their craft, working hard to be 100% for the combine. At the very least, you don’t expect him to be drinking — let alone drinking and then getting into the driver’s seat of a car.

I’m a big fan of Ogletree’s on-field performance and his upside is through the roof. He could be a sensational player in the NFL. Yet stuff like this makes you want to run a mile. Can you trust a guy who jeopardises his college career with a failed drugs test, gets arrested as a freshman on a misdemeanor theft-by-taking charge and now this?

The interview process at the combine just became a lot harder for Ogletree. He’s going to have to explain his actions to anyone who’ll listen. But how do you explain them? Some GM’s and coaches won’t be prepared to listen and will presumably strike him off their boards immediately. If it was a one-off, you might be prepared to see through this. With an ever growing list of incidents, he runs the serious risk of falling much further than his talent deserves.

I suppose the question is, would the Seahawks take a chance? He’s undoubtedly skilled, appears perfect for Seattle’s defense and could be a star at the next level. There just aren’t many linebackers with his range, coverage skill and ability to play the edge as a pass rusher. He’d be a dynamic counter to any team looking to use the read option against the Seahawks while also potentially improving the teams third-down defense. He’s not a perfect player and you’d like to see more consistent effort. Yet there’s still so much to like about his game.

It’s also worth noting that Seattle’s front office hasn’t completely avoided players with perceived character issues. Bruce Irvin and Marshawn Lynch were both considered ‘risky’ investments. The team also coveted Brandon Marshall and had a look at Kellen Winslow and Terrell Owens. John Schneider and Pete Carroll aren’t afraid of a challenge.

Then you compare him to a player like Khaseem Greene — a picture of professionalism, an engaging character and a good enough athlete to usurp Ogletree on a lot of draft boards. Given the choice of the two, I suspect the Seahawks might choose Greene. They’d have to really appreciate Ogletree’s upside to see past the red flags. Greene is a saint in comparison.

Many players have had incidents like this and moved on. There’s nothing to say this won’t be a much needed wake up call for Alec Ogletree. Sometimes a player needs an epiphany moment to get their act together. If he’s willing to learn from this latest mistake and begin to mature and take responsibility for his actions, rolling the dice could prove to be a calculated gamble. He’s a very talented football player. I wouldn’t strike him off my board yet, but I’d want to be one of the first teams to interview him in Indianapolis.

I was going to move Ogletree up to #13 in my updated mock this week, but I’m going to have to consider that idea. Round two isn’t out of the question now. The one saving grace might be that the Bengals — never a team to shirk away from a guy with character red flags — are in need of a 4-3 outside linebacker. With picks at #21, #37 and #53, Ogletree could be saved by Cincinnati. It’s a shame he might have to be saved by anyone.

The other saving grace will be the combine coming up so quickly after this news became public knowledge. Ogletree’s physical qualities should shine in Indianapolis. He could be one of the star’s of the show. If he turns up and dominates in a lot of drills, he’ll take back some momentum. He’s got a lot more work to do though to convince teams he can be trusted.

Players like Ogletree only ever fall because of issues like this and good teams have benefited in the past from overreactions to off-field concerns. It’s not like past and present Seahawks players haven’t dealt with similar issues. You could end up with a defining talent because of stuff like this. I’d recommend keeping an open-mind. As ridiculous as this news is on the players behalf, it could be a turning point. I hope so for his sake that proves to be the case. Ogletree has so much upside and potential, it’s still hard to imagine passing on him.