Georgia's Alec Ogletree is one of three talented prospects that could suffer a fall

Yesterday I wrote a piece asking whether the Seahawks could learn something from the Baltimore Ravens. Today, I’m going to take it a step further.

Baltimore GM Ozzie Newsome has consistently managed to get value out of the draft. One way he’s achieved this is by taking advantage of the mistakes of others. He’s taken calculated risks when others ran a mile, used common sense and snatched at any opportunities presented to him. Newsome was ready and waiting when Ed Reed was still on the board in the mid-20’s. He repeated the act when Ben Grubbs, Michael Oher and Jimmy Smith fell into the same range. He was able to trade down last year and still managed to get Courtney Upshaw in round two. And when he’s been presented with picks in the top-15, he’s drafted Terrell Suggs, Haltoi Ngata and Joe Flacco (after a trade down).

When Tim Ruskell traded up to take John Carlson in 2008, he dealt with the Ravens. Newsome drafted Ray Rice with Seattle’s pick.

It’s not all been perfect — he chose Kyle Boller at #19 overall in 2003. I also appreciate I’m not shocking anyone by simply highlighting one of the leagues best GM’s is actually good at the draft.

The point I want to make here is to highlight the opportunistic way Newsome has gone about his business. He traded up for Ngata, Flacco and Oher. He knew the value on offer when trading down with Seattle in 2008. He’s built a team by sensing opportunity when others sensed danger. When certain players suffered unexpected falls, he’s made the necessary moves to get them to Baltimore. In some cases that meant a small move of just a single position (Ngata). In others it means being a little more proactive (Flacco).

Picking 25th overall, the Seahawks have an opportunity to mimic the Ravens. This draft is going to be so unpredictable, I think we could see two or three players reach the late teens unexpectedly. There may be an opportunity for the Seahawks to seize the initiative and make a small move up the board. That’s something John Schneider will have to judge. They be be able to sit tight but dropping to #25 is a lot more substantial than say #17-19.

Newsome has proved that sometimes you have to be proactive. The Seahawks are yet to trade up in a draft in the Carroll/Schneider era. This could be the year to do it.

So who could fall into a position where such a move is likely? Keep an eye on guys with character concerns. When the combine kicks off later this month we’ll start to find out who interviewed badly and who is a concern for scouts and GM’s. Baltimore’s previous picks are a great example of the types of players that can fall. Micheal Oher was a storied prospect made famous by a book and (in my opinion) a lousy film. Character concerns saw him drop from top-ten certainty to late first rounder. Jimmy Smith is one of the best cornerback prospects I’ve ever scouted. He also fell due to character concerns. In both cases, the media speculated they would fall. As it happens, they fell right into Ozzie Newsome’s lap.

Both players offered supreme physical talents with limitless upside, but there was enough suspicion with their character to provoke a fall. There are more than a few players who could also fall for similar reasons in 2013. Here’s three examples:

Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia) — (see tape vs Kentucky below) He might have the biggest upside in the 2013 draft and his tape against Ole Miss will get anyone buying into his potential. However, he’s missed games due to drug related suspensions and he has quite a passive off-field personality. It’s a limited sample size, but he comes across quite distant in interviews and he’s not the kind of confident talker you see with Khaseem Greene. Some teams will decide he’s more upside than proven production and might be turned off by his personality, forcing a drop. Those suspensions also need checking out. Personally I still think he’s a top-15 lock, but I thought the same about Jimmy Smith. He’d make a great WILL in Seattle’s defense and it’d be very difficult to pass up the chance to bring him to the North West.

Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) — Another player with the athletic potential to get anyone excited. He’s a brilliant three-technique with a relentless motor and he should be a top-ten pick on talent alone. Richardson also had to play JUCO football because of bad grades, flip-flopped over his decision to attend Missouri despite a previous commitment and was suspended at a crucial time in the 2012 season for violating team rules. His personality might rub some people up the wrong way — but as a three technique you kind of want to see a bit of fire and brimstone. ESPN notes on his draft profile: “Mental capacity and maturity level are being closely investigated by NFL scouts.” He’s unlikely to get past the Cowboys if Monte Kiffin has any sway in Dallas — he tried very hard to recruit him for USC. It might cost only a third round pick to get above Jerry Jones if he falls, however.

Sam Montgomery (DE, LSU) — This isn’t a suggestion necessarily for the first round, but he’s a player to monitor in rounds two and three. At times Montgomery has looked the part of a dynamic pass rusher alongside Barkevious Mingo. Yet there are so many lingering issues with his attitude and work rate. He started the season on the bench as a wake-up call from the coaches and then an image started doing the rounds on the internet that wasn’t exactly flattering. I’ve seen Montgomery listed in some first round projections but he’ll need to flash big time at the combine to get over these concerns. Even so — the Seahawks are likely to consider adding another LEO following Chris Clemons’ ACL injury. At 6-5, 260lbs they could get a bargain in the second or third round if they’re willing to take a shot on a talented but floored prospect.

Never underestimate the perception of a ‘sure thing’ versus a risk. GM’s, scouts and coaches love high character players with big time potential. Nobody is talking about Rutgers’ Khaseem Greene at the moment, but wait until he impresses at the combine. Not only will he flash the athletic qualities befitting a converted defensive back, he’ll also blow teams away during interviews. And that could potentially put him ahead of a guy like Alec Ogletree who has a higher ceiling, but also a much lower floor.

Despite thinking that one or two players could fall in the draft, I can’t bring myself to express this in a mock draft. When you pair the Seahawks with a player expected to go much earlier, it just looks like wishful thinking. You almost want to see other people making those projections so you can refer to it and make it seem that little bit more possible. Let’s just say it’ll be a nice surprise if it happens. In tomorrow’s mock though I will have a team ahead of the Seahawks falling for Khaseem Green, and that’ll mean a different pick at #25.

Following Baltimore's lead might not be a bad idea

Learning from the Champs

The Baltimore Ravens didn’t have an elite defense during the regular season. While Seattle’s unit ranked fourth overall according to Football Outsiders, Baltimore came in at #19. The Seahawks had the third best pass defense, Baltimore’s was 13th best. And despite the presence of Haloti Ngata up front the Ravens only ranked 26th against the run. Seattle finished 12th.

For years they had one of the league’s most daunting defensive unit’s. Yet in the year Ray Lewis finally crumbled and chose to retire, Ed Reed looked human and Paul Kruger became pretty overrated, they finally won another title.

We’ve gone over Seattle’s need to improve defensively this off-season. And yet here are the Baltimore Ravens, with their rank average defense from weeks 1-17, becoming World Champions.

The thing is, they were anything but average in the post season. They recorded nine sacks — four more than the second best playoff team (Washington had five). The Ravens had an incredible SIX post-season interceptions, forced five fumbles (four were recovered for turnovers) and had 308 total tackles. In all four key defensive categories, they ranked #1.

It helps that they played more games being a wild card that won it all. Even so, they came up against some high power offenses along the way. Indianapolis at home, Denver (Peyton Manning) and New England (Tom Brady) on the road. Then the 49ers fresh from destroying Atlanta and Green Bay. That’s not exactly the route you’d pick to win a title.

So how did they turn a middling defense into a Championship?

On reflection, they played without a hint of erraticism in the post season. They didn’t lurch into big deficits, they didn’t put too much pressure on either side of the ball. They remained balanced and took their chances.

San Francisco and Seattle are often compared favourably. And they both seemed to suffer from the same issue — they were both patchy in the post-season. The Seahawks put themselves in a hole with a slow start against Washington, but managed to overcome a 14-point deficit (just). A week later they trailed 20-0 at half time in a game they had no business trailing 20-0 in. The 49ers similarly made hard work of their meeting with the Falcons, going 17-0 down almost immediately. They also put themselves in a gigantic hole in the Super Bowl before launching a late but ultimately fruitless comeback.

The Ravens never encountered such problems. Sure, they trailed in games. They faced uncomfortable and even fortunate moments. Without the worst defensive play in recent post-season history against the Broncos, they don’t even make it to the conference finals. But by playing it close in every game and minimising huge momentum swings, they put themselves in position to get maximum benefit out of any fortune being offered.

Seattle still won eleven games in 2012 and if the offense continues to grow there’s no reason why 12-14 wins isn’t achievable next season. Yet even if they win just ten games — like the Ravens in 2012 — they just need to find a way to mimic Baltimore’s post season. Play things tight. Avoid great big deficits and the need for brave comebacks. Play solid football.

Baltimore appear to have been built to compete with the Pittsburgh Steelers. That seemed to be the starting point for that franchise. If they wanted to win it all, they first had to be able to stand toe-to-toe with the Steelers in the AFC North. Neither team is flawless, but they are balanced. And it’s no surprise that over the last few years their rivalry has been the catalyst to Championship wins. Pittsburgh and Baltimore have both won Super Bowls. And they’ve both spent a lot of time kicking the crap out of each other.

Rather than contemplating how the Seahawks can improve this off-season to get back those agonising defeats to Detroit and Miami, perhaps the best thing to do is focus closer to home? What are the moves that will help the Seahawks beat the 49ers in order to have a shot at not just a division title, but multiple home games in the playoffs? Own the NFC West first. Without doubt Seattle’s best chance at making another Super Bowl is to play as many games at Century Link in the post-season as possible. The team is good enough now to win a certain number of games in a regular season. So are the 49ers. Divisional records within the NFC West are going to be crucial going forward, particularly the two games against San Francisco.

They could go out and make moves to try and improve the pass rush, but neither the Ravens (37 sacks) or the 49ers (38 sacks) dominated in that area during the 2012 season. The team at the top of the sack rankings — St. Louis with 51 sacks — blitzed all year and that comes with a consequence too. The Seahawks could use an extra pass rusher or two but the Ravens got by without any stars. They also got by without an elite run defense. And when the post-season came around they played the percentages. The Seahawks didn’t beat the 49ers 42-13 because of pass rush and they didn’t lose the earlier fixture 13-6 because of a lack of pressure. The way both teams are set up, it’s always likely to be a physical battle won equally in the trenches and with the speed of the offensive and defensive playmakers.

Rather than trying to create the ‘perfect’ roster that includes a franchise quarterback, a dominating pass rush, elite secondary and fantastic running back — perhaps they need to concentrate on creating the perfect roster to beat the 49ers and win the NFC West? A division which is starting to look increasingly like the old AFC North. While we agonise over pass rushers and three techniques, the thing most likely to help the Seahawks beat their greatest foe might be size up front to combat San Francisco’s power running game, speed at linebacker to limit Kaepernick and the read option, plus more offensive fire power.

You can’t expect to dominate every game. You can’t expect the pass rush to be fantastic every week. Perhaps a little more creativity in certain situations is needed, or at least some better production from specific role players. But more than anything, the Seahawks have to win their division. And when they get to the post-season, they have to play less erratic football. This team will win more close games than it loses. This team will pulverise certain opponents, just like we saw in the three game stretch against Arizona, Buffalo and San Francisco. They can beat anybody. They just can’t necessarily do it if the other guys get a 20-point head start.

The key to emulating Baltimore might start with finding a way to top the Niners for the divisional crown. And that might lend some strength to going for size over pure pass rush at defensive tackle. It might mean focusing on increased speed and playmaking at the WILL. It might also mean continuing to top up the playmaking element of the offense too — because this is a rivalry that will compliment graft with plenty of big plays.

What Vick signing in Philly means for the draft

Michael Vick agreed a new contract with the Eagles today, giving him a chance to be a starter in Chip Kelly’s offense. I suspect Kelly has decided he can begin to install his offensive vision with Vick acting as a place-holder. And with both offensive tackles returning from injury and a few good weapons remaining at the skill positions, it could push the Eagles towards defense at #4 overall. They have a complete dearth of talent in the secondary so could look at Dee Milliner. But perhaps more likely is a stud pick up the middle, particularly if they plan to switch to a 3-4. Star Lotulelei and Sharrif Floyd are unlikely to last long because of their upside and diversity. There’s a pretty good chance one of those two will be playing for the Eagles next year.

Welcome to silly season

Here’s a polite warning. We’re entering the time of year where everyone is a draft expert. Pundits and bloggers who barely watched any college football last season are suddenly putting together big boards because their editors are asking them to. Or because they know the draft sells and a good old rankings piece or mock draft generates hits.

We also start to see outrageous projections and opinions as people battle to be loudest among many voices. When the 2013 draft is long in the past, nobody will remember what is said at this time of the year. Nobody is ever held to account. So while someone gets placed in front of a camera to do this years version of ‘Russell Wilson is the worst pick in the entire draft’, rest assured that person will not need to justify such a lousy opinion in the future.

Today I noticed this Tweet..

RT @joeluu8 What about Matt Barkley? Where do you think he’ll go? … 3rd-round talent. Suspect he’ll go mid/late 2nd as clear backup.

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) February 11, 2013

… and nearly fell off my chair. This opinion on Barkley is typical for the time. We’ll see where he goes in the draft. I’d beat against it being the late second round.

A great example are the two Oregon games from 2011 and 2012. Last year it was Barkley’s performance against the Ducks that generated talk of a top-ten grade. This year he scores 51 points against the same unbeaten opponent, throws for five touchdowns and 484 yards and loses because the Trojans defense allowed 62 points. And it’s Barkley’s stock that takes the hit?

I’m willing to wager that most people knocking his stock this off-season haven’t even studied the tape. They’ve looked at the fact he returned to USC, not accomplished what he set out to and just offered a thumbs down. After all, why concentrate on the way Marqise Lee gave up on a route for a costly pick in the first half? Or that Barkley’s response on the subsequent drive was to throw a long downfield bomb to the same receiver for a touchdown? He lost, his team had a bad year, so he falls as a consequence.

How about another perfect downfield pass to the corner of the end zone was dropped poorly by Nelson Agholor? Or at 4:17 in the first video below where he does a great job extending the play before throwing a perfect touchdown pass to the opposite corner?

Matt Barkley was not worse in 2012. The USC Trojans defense had an atrocious year, but Barkley did not. Don’t take my word for it either, check out this detailed piece which brings metrics to the discussion. Negative hype reigns just as supreme as positive hype at this time of the year. He threw more picks, but then he was being asked to chase more games. He would’ve beaten his touchdown total for 2011 had he not picked up a shoulder injury. And Max Wittek’s performance in relief shows what he was up against.

There are too many teams in the NFL who need a quarterback like Matt Barkley. Not all offensive schemes will suit him, but some will. And within those offenses, he will prosper. Don’t trust my view? The two Oregon games are below. You tell me what the difference is. It’s certainly not the difference between consensus top-ten and the third round.

Percy Harvin to Seattle? I can't see it

I had an email today from a reader called Chris. Thought it might create an interesting discussion…

Rob, I read today on Rotoworld that Percy Harvin is on the out. They say a second rounder and change. With the Hawks having so many picks, what about offering our second rounder and a 5,6, or 7? The only thing I wouldn’t like is that I thought we would be looking for a big receiver, rather than adding another 5-11 receiver. With that said, it’s Percy Harvin and could be reunited with Darrell Bevell. I would say that with Sidney Rice and Golden Tate on the outside along with Harvin in the slot, that would be a formidable trio. Thoughts?

Harvin is a truly dynamic receiver. Very few players enter the league with his playmaking talent. We’ve seen all kinds of prospects compared to Harvin — most recently Tavon Austin at West Virginia. The reality is nobody gets close. He plays bigger than his 5-11, 185lbs frame, gets off press and can stretch the field. He’s competitive. He has tremendous YAC value, is capable of handling a few snaps in the backfield and he’s one of the best kick returners in the league. He constantly finds ways to impact games and he’s been relatively productive despite awful quarterback situations in three of his four seasons in the NFL.

When you watched him at Florida, you knew he was a star in the making. Throughout his college career he just looked better. And despite concerns over drug use going into the 2009 draft, it wasn’t a big surprise he still ended up as a first round pick (#22 overall to Minnesota).

Age-wise he’s still young enough to warrant a decent contract. He’ll be 25 in May but still has at least four years of excellent production in his locker. He’s the quintessential scorer of cheap points. There aren’t many better than Harvin for making big momentum changes in a game. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the leagues best receivers, playmakers and all-round football players.

So why wouldn’t I make the trade?

For everything that’s good about Harvin, there’s nearly always a bigger negative. The report from Rotoworld quoted in Chris’ email refers to a piece by CBS Minnesota:

Sources tell WCCO’s Mike Max that the No. 1 reason Percy Harvin left the team this season was not his injury, but it was motivated by a blowup he had with Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier.

Multiple sources tell Max that Harvin had an embarrassing tirade directed toward Frasier, disrespecting the coach during the season when Harvin was sidelined with an injured ankle.

Teammates were present, and Max was told that is when Harvin left the team and was put on injured reserve.

Sources say teammates were disappointed in Harvin’s actions and the organization has moved toward less tolerance for that behavior.

Harvin apparently had a similar incident when Childress coached the team.

The Vikings will try to trade him, Max reports, as Harvin does have market value.

One of the key mantra’s within Seattle’s locker room is you have to be ‘all in’. They want players to buy into Pete Carroll’s vision. That doesn’t mean they’re bringing in robotic yes-men towing a party-line that isn’t working. It’s about putting the team first and so far it’s working. The Minnesota Vikings won ten games in 2012 and made the post-season. Yet Percy Harvin is trying to show up the coach? Why? It’d be partly understandable if they were destined for 2-14. The Vikings actually had a pretty remarkable season. But Percy’s not happy.

Me. Me. Me. Me. Me.

Ok — he’s been after a new contract. I get that. But you do your complaining in campe, make the point and then get on with the job. Right at the point Harvin should’ve been doing his best to enhance Minnesota’s playoff ambitions, he was doing the polar opposite. Not good.

The fact he also had tear-ups with Brad Childress also suggests this isn’t a one-off, contract based wrangle. Seattle has a pretty harmonic dressing room right now and the last thing they need is Percy Harvin acting as a distraction. We saw some of the playmaking qualities he possesses at Century Link in 2012 but cast your minds back. What else do you remember? That’s right, Percy screaming at his coach on the sideline. In a close game. Whether it was a legitimate gripe or not, there’s a time and a place.

Then there’s the injury history. In 2009 and 2010 he suffered severe problems with migraine’s and was constantly listed on the injury report as a consequence. He’s also suffered many other issues including ankle, hamstring, hip, shoulder and finger injuries. In 2009 he was listed as questionable seven times. He was on the injury report eight times in 2010, seven times in 2011 and five times in 2012 before being placed on injured reserve (missing Minnesota’s last five games). He’s competitive for his size when he’s actually on the field, but he’s also been quite brittle.

And finally there’s this article by Jeremy Fowler at TwinCities.com:

Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin “epitomized the climate” of player entitlement under coach Urban Meyer at the University of Florida, according to a Sporting News report posted online Monday, April 9.

Harvin, who played for the Gators from 2006-08, reportedly was one of three players who missed the 2008 season opener after allegedly failing drug tests for marijuana – penalties dictated by university policy – although Meyer publicly blamed an injury for Harvin’s absence.

Harvin also refused to run stadium steps with the rest of the team during offseason conditioning before the 2007 season, according to the Sporting News, and once allegedly threw wide receivers coach Billy Gonzales to the ground by his neck.

Harvin reportedly wasn’t punished for either of those incidents, according to the report, and was treated differently as a member of Meyer’s “Circle of Trust.”

Harvin told strength and conditioning coaches while boycotting stadium runs, “this (expletive) ends now,” according to the report, and the team played basketball as conditioning the next day.

So it comes down to this — is he worth the hassle?

That’s not to say any deal is impossible. Marshawn Lynch was considered troublesome in Buffalo but he’s been a perfect professional for the Seahawks. John Schneider takes an aggressive approach to team building and he’s made similar deals in the past. He brought in Lynch, traded for Charlie Whitehurst and also found a way to land Chris Clemons in a bargain deal. They seriously considered a big trade for Brandon Marshall — who’s had his fair share of problems.

If Carroll and Schneider feel Harvin helps them get significantly closer to a Championship then maybe this could happen? Someone will show interest after all. Why not Seattle? They’re good enough to start considering the final moves that will push them towards title contention. And just like all potential trades (see: Darrelle Revis) they’ll no doubt do their homework and made an educated decision.

Right now I’d still say a trade to the Seahawks is unlikely. However dynamic Harvin can be on the field, you also need to be able to trust him off it. And as Carroll and Schneider build around Russell Wilson — I think they’ll be looking for guys who share his burning enthusiasm for success and hard work, not guys who are likely to scream at the coaches in the midst of a battle.

Daniel Jeremiah this week gave the Seahawks Keenan Allen in his latest mock draft. I suspect if the Seahawks do try to add a receiver, it’ll be the big, physical target they currently lack. Whether that’s a guy like Allen at 6-2/6-3 with the ability to compete in the air or a mobile tight end who can run a lot of receiver routes and act in the role Kellen Winslow would’ve taken had he made the cut — I think that’s what they’ll set out to add.

If they are willing to consider another receiver in that 5-11-6-1 range, why not go after DeAndre Hopkins? He might not be the most explosive receiver, but he’s reliable, consistent and will make life easier for Wilson. He might not have the same playmaking qualities as Harvin, but he could be more effective for this young offense.

I’ve been away with work today so haven’t got a great deal of time to dedicate to a big piece. I wanted to put some tape on the blog though, specifically of UCLA’s Datone Jones. One of the big issues with Jones is working out what position he’ll play at the next level. Can he get bigger to play early downs at tackle in a 4-3? Is he stout enough to act as a five technique in a 3-4? Is he troublesome enough to play as an orthodox defensive end?

Despite a great showing at the Senior Bowl plus some decent 2012 tape, teams are going to wonder where exactly he fits. It probably doesn’t help that he pretty much lined up everywhere for the Bruins rather than featuring in one defined position.

He might end up being at his best in Seattle’s ‘Jason Jones’ role. Is he purely a nickel pass rusher? I think you could make an argument for that. And it’ll limit his stock if most teams see him as mostly a third down/passing down pass rusher. Right now I’d grade him as a late second or third rounder. If he’s there at #56, do you consider adding him to replace Jones? Or do you think he could potentially act as a three technique?

Jones shows a good burst, an ability to work into the backfield and he can be disruptive. He also struggles to track the ball, finish plays and he’s more disruptive by his presence rather than actually made the key tackle.

Have a look at the tape and let me know what you think.

Very quietly, this is developing into a very strong year for tight ends. Certainly the strongest we’ve seen for a while. Maybe it’s just the current penchant for big, athletic difference makers, but there seems to be a few of those types this year.

While Zach Ertz and Tyler Eifert have received most of the focus, others are starting to get some attention. Florida’s Jordan Reed has unnatural speed for his size, good hands and will create mismatches for slot corners, linebackers and safety’s. I’m looking forward to watching Cincinnati’s Travis Kelce over the next couple of weeks, while Rice’s Vance McDonald is being tipped for a big combine.

There are others who will go a little later that could have some impact at the next level such as UCLA’s Joseph Fauria, Michigan State’s Dion Sims, Tennessee’s Mychal Rivera and Stanford’s massive 6-8, 263lbs Levine Toilolo.

One player who could force his way into first round contention is San Diego State’s Gavin Escobar. He’s listed at 6-5 and 255lbs. The tape above (vs Boise State) from Aaron Aloysius is the first full look we’ve been given. It’s never ideal to make snap judgements on one game — however — it’s hard not to be impressed.

Blocking isn’t a major strong point for Escobar, but you’re drafting this guy for his receiving talents and his ability to create problems at the second level. In the tape above he appears to have soft hands and an ability to not only high point catches, but also make difficult grabs. It looks like he can create separation and find soft spots in the coverage. And he has the size and mobility to be a Kellen Winslow type at the next level.

Not long ago former Chiefs GM Scott Pioli listed Escobar as his 10th best underclassmen in the 2013 draft.

“Three-year starter who was hampered this season by a knee injury that he played through. Good height-weight-speed prospect at 6-6 and 255 who right now is more receiver than blocker. I’m high on his ability to produce as an offensive tight end right now in the more wide-open NFL offenses. He’s what we call an “F-type” tight end, a receiver who can play off the line probably more productively than as a blocker right now.”

If you’re wondering what a ‘F-type’ tight end is, it’s another way of saying H-back. Basically they line up just off the line, technically in the backfield and normally as the second tight end in a 2TE set. Norv Turner is the most recent coach to use a lot of this in his schemes, but Joe Gibbs is often credited with being the inventor of this particular wrinkle.

To break it down you’re asking a H or F back to run receiver routes in multiple sets while still incorporating blocking responsibilities on certain calls. The way the game has changed and moved more towards passing, the role of the orthodox tight end has shifted towards more of these H/F back types anyway. However, as we’ve seen with Zach Miller in Seattle, teams that are run-centric still ask their tight ends to do a lot of blocking.

When the Seahawks brought in Kellen Winslow it looked to be a way of getting a productive, bigger receiver on the field rather than a pure second tight end. Obviously he didn’t make the cut and Anthony McCoy in my view did enough as the #2 to warrant some faith. However, with the team still lacking a big target for Russell Wilson outside of Miller and 6-4-but-skinny Sidney Rice, they could look at one of these ‘joker’ tight ends that can act predominantly as a receiver. McCoy would still have a role, but you’re opening up the play book. More 2TE sets, sometimes putting three big targets on the field for Wilson. New England made multiple tight end sets feasible. It’s not a bad lead to follow.

Gavin Escobar might not be the most talked about player but his potential as a receiver is clear. San Diego State were run-focused in 2012 so he didn’t make many big, highlight reel plays or generate fantastic production. At the next level, with a quarterback like Wilson, he could be the league’s next intriguing game changing tight end. If you’re looking for the next Jimmy Graham, this guy has as good a chance as anyone.

The only question is whether the Seahawks would consider making such a pick at #25. Because it’s unlikely he’ll last until #56. During our coverage this year there’s been some interest in Zach Ertz, so why not Escobar? It could be argued Escobar possibly has a higher upside, but Ertz is the more natural receiver and already looks accomplished running different routes and acting as the main focus of a passing game. Daniel Jeremiah mocked receiver Keenan Allen to the Seahawks today. He too is pretty under-developed given the weak passing game at California and the restrictions it placed on the skill players. Escobar is no different really, but again might have better upside.

Have a look at the tape and let us know what you think. I’d also recommend checking out this detail-filled piece on tight ends by Danny Kelly, published today. It’s an incredible read.

Georgia's John Jenkins is a 358lbs monster

On Tuesday a couple of people touted the idea of drafting a big defensive tackle with the 25th pick. Essentially, not an orthodox three technique.

JW commented: “I understand the speed issue, but if you can’t find a pure 3-tech, getting a wide body with good push who will consistently command a double team, and if your 1-tech and 5-tech also demand respect, that pocket is going to be sloppy and the Leo is going to have some shots. I’m not sure how much Branch commanded a double team. I wonder if there’s a paucity of 3-techs and it’s not solved in the draft, the hawks brass might think hard about going to a wide-9 and double three alignment more often in order to get more isolation shots. Their LBs are quick enough, Kam can handle the run, so it mitigates the run gashes somewhat. Might be worth revisiting the alignments in 3rd and long if they can’t satisfactorily address the personnel.”

For the last three years, the Seahawks have used quite a sizeable defensive line. Red Bryant has worked at the five technique despite weighing 323lbs. In 2010 Brandon Mebane (311lbs) started at the three with Colin Cole (328lbs) at the one. In 2011 they inserted Alan Branch (325lbs) into the three with Mebane moving across to replace Cole. That’s how it stayed for 2012.

We’ve talked a lot on this blog about drafting a pure three technique. By definition the 4-3 under utilises a natural pass rusher at the position, traditionally weighing around 285-305lbs. They line up next to the LEO and double up to create pressure on the weak side. Instead the Seahawks have used size at the three with mixed results so far.

My argument would be that the pass rush hasn’t been good enough during those three years, provoking a need for change. Total reliance has been placed on Chris Clemons for pressure and sacks and you can’t expect one guy to do it alone in base defense. Getting a natural three technique isn’t easy, but it could be crucial for the future success of this scheme.

On the other hand, perhaps Carroll believes the scheme isn’t the issue? Maybe he feels it’s the personnel? Perhaps a bigger body that can be more disruptive will be the order of the day?

If the second part is true, whether it’s likely to succeed or not, it opens up options we haven’t considered previously. A big space-eater like Johnathan Hankins might be in contention. He offered precious little in terms of pass rush for Ohio State and I’m not a big fan of his skill set. But he’s big, stout and has some athletic upside. ESPN’s Todd McShay gave him to Seattle in his updated mock draft today.

What about the massive John Jenkins at Georgia? He’s 6-3 and 358lbs — a monster of a defensive lineman. He moves well for his size even if he tires quickly (to be expected). Could he be used as a heavyweight powerhouse among the interior, capable of being more disruptive than Branch while also improving the teams run defense?

Could Jesse Williams come in to play? Alabama’s Australian import looks best suited to defensive end in a 3-4, but he played nose tackle in 2012. His main strength is run defense and he’s shown very little interior pass rush on tape. He’s also a baller who plays with intensity and attitude and while he does tend to get dinged up in a lot of games, he also had a big outing against LSU in a key ‘Bama victory this year.

None of these three players are pure pass rushers. Funnily enough of the three, the 358lbs Jenkins is probably the most disruptive. But if they did want to keep size inside, these guys would probably be on the radar.

Sylvester Williams and Kawann Short — who are bigger than the natural three techniques but offer more pass rush — could also come back into focus. Particularly Short — an underrated interior rusher. You just wonder about their upside and necessity to hit the ground running. Neither is a spectacular athlete with unique skills. Williams turns 25 this year, Short will be 24.

I still think this is a tough call. Carroll has highlighted the need to improve the pass rush and I’m not sure getting another big guy will solve that. Alan Branch didn’t do a terrible job and certainly the issues with run defense weren’t solely on him. If the objective is to keep the scheme and invest in an alternative to Jason Jones and find other nickel players, why not just re-sign Branch? Is John Jenkins going to be that much better? To the extent the pass rush greatly improves?

The Seahawks simply don’t collapse the pocket enough and more than anything they just need someone who can be in there to move the quarterback out of position, preferably into the waiting arms of the LEO. A big man can do this sometimes with a dynamic bull rush, but more often than not they lack the kind of explosive first step to shoot a gap or knife through. If it’s about combining size with pass rush — draft Kawann Short. He’s the player most likely to get into the backfield and he plays at a comparable weight to Mebane. I’m not sure Jenkins, Hankins or Williams will be enough of a difference maker in terms of improving the pass rush — the key issue highlighted by Carroll at the end of the season.

JW made a good point when he said, “I wonder if there’s a paucity of 3-techs and it’s not solved in the draft.” He’s absolutely right. There aren’t many great three techniques in the league. They’re like gold dust. There’s no exact science to it, but some of the best looking college three techniques just haven’t worked out in the NFL. It’s why I like Penn State’s Jordan Hill. I wouldn’t bank on him being the guy to get Seattle out of this pass rush dilemma, but I’d take a flier in the mid-to-late rounds regardless of what happens with the #25 pick.

The lack of choice and likelihood that Sheldon Richardson and Sharrif Floyd will go in the top-15 keeps pushing me towards free agency. Randy Starks isn’t just an ideal physical match for the three, he’s also an above average run stopper. As far as I’m concerned, that’s the guy this team needs to target. Sign him to a two-year deal and if Richardson, Floyd or whoever isn’t there… keep searching for that next mid-round gem like a Jordan Hill.

Yet I wouldn’t completely rule out a big man being drafted early. As we mentioned, they’ve used three big lineman so far under Carroll. There’s also the San Francisco 49ers factor to consider. The Seahawks need to stay one step ahead of their NFC West rivals. The Niners run the ball so effectively behind possibly the best offensive line in the NFL. Being big, strong and stout up front will be key for the Seahawks in future meeting against San Francisco. The best way to combat the likes of Mike Iupati, Joe Staley and Anthony Davis might be to introduce them to a 358lbs defensive tackle who moves like he weighs 310lbs.

Drafting a big tackle at #25 isn’t something we’ve discussed much so far and I’d be interested to hear what you make of it. I’ve included tape below of the big guys discussed in this piece.

Brandon Williams had a mixed week at the Senior Bowl

It’s difficult to get an angle on who helped or hindered their stock at the Senior Bowl without seeing the mid-week work-outs. Thankfully, ‘footballmixtapes’ has put together two videos charting all the televised work of Brandon Williams (DT, Missouri Southern) and Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina) plus every snap both players took in the game.

It’s particularly helpful when trying to get an angle on Brandon Williams. Missouri Southern tape is hard to come by, but the game against Lincoln from 2012 is available online and it’s a coaches copy too. I’ve watched the video twice and came away completely underwhelmed. However, Williams seemed to get positive reviews at the Senior Bowl after a slow start.

The tape below highlights his improvement as the week went on. In the first few 1v1’s he gets dominated and looks completely ineffective. At the time Tony Pauline, who was in Mobile, commented: “(Williams) has NFL type size and shows a good degree of lower body strength but was easily handled and really needs to elevate his play here.”

In the 7v7 he also had little impact but managed to anchor nicely on a couple of the run plays. Pauline and several others left the Senior Bowl with a much more favourable opinion of Williams and it seemed like he stepped up his level of performance. This is what Pat Kirwan had to say after attending the Senior Bowl:

“A young man that struggled a lot early in the week to the point he didn’t look like he belonged here. Williams was on the ground Monday but was a force by Thursday. He told me he went back to his room Monday night and decided to do a better job for his mom and 3-month-old son. He’s got a fan in me after he recounted how his mother and brother lived in a car for a period of time when things were tough.”

You can see an improvement at the 1:39 mark, presumably tape of the later practises. This time in the 1v1’s he has some success, flashing a brutal swim move at 1:46 to beat Kent State guard Brian Winters. On the very next snap he beats Winters again with a powerful punch to the chest before rounding the corner with a nice burst. At 2:27 in the scrimmage session, he shakes off a blocker to get into the backfield forcing the quarterback to get rid of the ball. At 2:44 he shoves Winters into the quarterback and makes the play. If you were keeping an eye on his play later in the week, you’d come away impressed.

He looked nimble and athletic despite weighing 340lbs. He showed a greater ability to get off blocks than you see on tape. There’s a few occasions when he’s a little slow to react to the snap, but there’s something to work with on this evidence.

However, when you watch the Senior Bowl game tape, Williams seems to go back into his shell. He had virtually no impact and looked like the guy who failed to dominate against Lincoln. A lot of people say the work-outs mean more than the game time, but I think the opposite can be true for defensive and offensive lineman. They have an opportunity to flash power, athleticism and an ability to block or press. It’s the same as any other work out in that regard. It’s tough to judge the skill positions, the corners and even the linebackers in an all-star game, but it’s very easy to judge lineman. While the likes of Kawann Short, Sylvester Williams, Ziggy Ansah, Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson and Larry Warford all stood out, I thought Brandon Williams, Alex Okafor and Margus Hunt were all disappointing.

It’s difficult to project his stock without seeing more tape. I definitely wanted to see him obliterate Lincoln’s offensive line given his size and mobility at 340lbs — and he didn’t manage it. I suspect whoever does draft him will be looking for a mid-round, high upside nose tackle. He could even nip into round two depending on need. Several teams are switching to the 3-4 and there aren’t a ton of nose tackles in this class (Jenkins, Hankins for sure, Lotulelei and Jesse Williams possibly). It might take Williams a year to adjust to the pro-level, but he could develop into an effective nose. Or he could be completely ineffective and out of his depth. It helps that he’s a high character prospect — one of the best in this class. Someone will give him a shot.

We’ve been over Slyvester Williams before but I still think he’s better suited to the one-technique rather than Seattle’s biggest need at the three. He can flash a great swim move and we saw it time and time again in college. But he’s not a constantly disruptive tackle like Kawann Short and he doesn’t have the upside (he’ll be a 25-year-old rookie) to make you run to the podium. He has quite a big frame and might struggle to beat pro-lineman for burst. Having said that, he looked good lined up next to Short in the Senior Bowl game and he managed to knife through a couple of times in the scrimmages and 1v1’s.

I’m increasingly sceptical that Sharrif Floyd, Sheldon Richardson and Star Lotulelei will make it to #15, let alone #25. If they leave the board early, we have to compare the likes of Short, Sylvester/Jesse Williams and others to alternative needs and how the receivers/tight ends, linebackers like Khaseem Greene or other players compare. In an ideal world, this team drafts a great defensive tackle in round one. In reality, there might be better options elsewhere.

Something else to remember — John Schneider and Pete Carroll like Senior Bowl prospects. James Carpenter, John Moffitt, K.J. Wright, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson. They all attended the Senior Bowl. So there’s every chance they’ll be looking closely at the 2013 participants.

You’ll find both videos below. Brandon Williams is #66 and wearing a dark green helmet. Sylvester Williams is #92 and wearing a Carolina blue helmet. There’ll be an updated mock tomorrow as normal for Wednesday’s.