In a year where there are seemingly no conspicuous talent dropoff points, perhaps nothing defines the parity level of the 2013 draft more than it’s remarkably strong class of small school prospects.  Typically, these kind of players are late round picks or go undrafted.  John Schneider has dabbled with small schools from time to time- spending a late pick on Mark Legree and signing Josh Portis in free agency.  Occasionally you’ll see a Brian Quick or Jared Veldheer grace the top 3 rounds, but it’s hardly a regular occurrence.

Given the incredibly unsettled nature of the first four or five rounds this year, it’s a prime opportunity for small school players to break into the conversation.  Already, we’re hearing a lot of insider talk that this is exactly the case.  First, it was scouts raving about Louisiana Tech’s Quinton Patton at around the time the Senior Bowl happened.  Patton went from a likely late pick to a likely 2nd rounder.  You have Robert Alford and Jordan Mills who I highlighted yesterday.  Many scouts believe there is “no doubt” that Alford will be a 2nd round pick, as he’s expected to put on a show at the NFL Combine.  There is talk that Mills could go in the 3rd round.

And then you have Eric Fisher out of Central Michigan- a player who is already considered a 1st round lock and could go top ten.  Florida International’s Jonathan Cyprien is ranked as the second best strong safety by NFLDraftscout.com and has a real chance to be a top 50 pick.  Cyprien’s teammate, defensive end Tourek Williams, has received glowing mention from some circles as well (you can even find two full game compilations of him on youtube).  A 340 pound defensive tackle out of Missouri Southern named Brandon Williams turned some heads when he flashed dominance on the final day of Senior Bowl practices, and some (sources from Rotoworld.com) have now said that his stock has risen as high as the early 2nd round.

One of the fastest rising tight ends is Vance McDonald out of Rice.  He’s drawing comparisons to the Gronk, whether that’s fair or not.  It is now widely believed that he will be off the board in the top sixty picks, barring a disaster at the combine.  Perhaps you’ve heard of Zac Dysert?  He’s out of Miami of Ohio.  Western Kentucky’s Quanterus Smith is among the better LEO options in the middle rounds.  And then there’s Marshall’s Aaron Dobson, who’s slowly been working his way up the pecking order of wide receivers and may find himself going in the first two rounds.

But by far my favorite of these players are two that have been talked about very little in the media, and who have completely unpredictable draft stock.  And as luck would have it, these players play positions of major need for Seattle:  pass rusher and wide receiver.

You’ve probably read the name “Tony Pauline” quite a few times on this blog.  The Sports Illustrated writer runs draftinsider.net and has been a favorite of both Rob and I for a few years now.  He gets information straight from anonymous scouts and executives, which has proven remarkably accurate.  Last year for example, most people thought that Courtney Upshaw and Zach Brown were likely mid to late 1st round picks, until Pauline revealed a consensus big board from several NFL GMs that listed neither on the top 32, and the data seemed to indicate that Seattle would have a real shot at Brown even at the 43rd overall pick.  Upshaw turned into an early 2nd round pick by the Ravens, and Brown lasted until the Titans at the 52nd overall selection.

As the Senior Bowl was wrapping up, Tony Pauline led off one of his updates speaking of a “super sleeper” at wide receiver.

The name making the rounds in the scouting community as one of the biggest sleepers at the receiver position is Courtney Gardner of Sierra College.  The 6-foot, 3-inch/220lb pass catcher was expected to play for Oklahoma in 2013 but opted for the NFL draft after academic “difficulties”.  We hear scouts have been raving about the physical skills Gardner brings to the field.  Besides his large frame the big pass catcher also has the speed (10.7 sec in the 100 meters) to match.  Even college coaches in the area are awed by his ability on the field but focusing at the task at hand seems to be an issue.

Gardner’s compilation video:

While it’s clear that Gardner still has a lot to learn, you can see where the scouting community’s enthusiasm is coming from.  Gardner has the movement talent of someone like Golden Tate or Percy Harvin, but in a 6’3″, 220 pound body.  He claims to have run a 4.38 forty (unofficially of course), and the speed on tape certainly seems to back that claim up.  However, he comes from pretty much the lowest level of competition possible, a junior college, and struggled with academics for a long time, which perhaps hints at a lack of work ethic (especially since it was a two year degree type college).  Curiously, Gardner was not given an invitation to the combine.  That may indicate that Gardner is destined to go undrafted, even if his tools are the stuff of legend.

Finally, I’ll end with the guy in the picture.  Armonty Bryant.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhStcILkeL4

I found it interesting that when asked if he’d been in contact with any NFL teams, he mentioned several, but there was one that leapt to his mind instantly.  You guessed it- the Seahawks.

Bryant made headlines for his dominating display in that Texas vs. Nation game by the way, which featured prominent players from major Division I schools.

Bryant has 35.5 inch arms, good size, undeniable athleticism, excellent pass rush technique, and a knack for getting to the quarterback.  In a recent interview Bryant mentioned that “people keep telling him” that he reminds them of Demarcus Ware.

Yet despite giving a pretty good camera interview and seeming like a good kid, he was busted last season for dealing drugs- during practice.  That’s about as flagrant of a criminal red flag as it gets, and that coupled with his coming from division II could double whammy his draft stock.  Regardless, Bryant remains an extremely intriguing prospect.  Like Russell Wilson last year, he deserves a post all to himself (which I never got around to writing last year, d’oh!).  I’ll probably wait until after the combine for that one.  In the meantime, this is a player to keep an eye on in Indy this weekend.  I included Bryant’s highlight reel below.

Take it for what it’s worth- the Seahawks have been connected to two little known small school prospects in the past few days.  Seattle showed interest in many players they did not draft last year, and often teams show interest in the players they don’t want, while never talking about the ones they do.  They did interview Russell Wilson at the Senior Bowl last year, and there were reports that they showed interest in players like Korey Toomer and Jeremy Lane last year, which was the only reason I even knew enough to mention them before that draft.

One of these players of interest is a 5’10” corner from Southeastern Louisiana by the name of Robert Alford.  You can watch his tape above.  That a player like this even has a 9 minute compilation video on youtube is pretty amazing.  I really have to commend youtube users for working overtime this year.  It is greatly appreciated.

Here is the article, and the quote that links Alford to Seattle:

“There’s no question he’s going to blow the Combine out of the water,” Golding said. “He’s a Combine guy. As far as running and agility and drills, he’ll be one of the top corners if not the top corner.”

Golding’s concern was how Alford would perform at the Senior Bowl with a totally new defense and new responsibilities. The reports were positive. Many NFL scouts are telling the coach that there’s “no doubt” Alford will be a second-round pick. Seattle, Cincinnati and Baltimore have particularly shown interest.

Alford plays far off the football, struggles with blocks and at times lacks physicality.  He wasn’t challenged very much though, and most of his tackles were on screens or passes that targeted other defensive players.  I hate the term “raw”, because it’s both vague and overused, but I think it’s safe to say that Alford isn’t yet impressive.  Or as Pete Carroll would probably think, Alford’s best football is still ahead of him.

Judging athleticism from a video isn’t a perfect science.  “Sneaky fast” isn’t just a cliche, field speed can be notoriously tough to quantify.  Consider Leon Washington, who doesn’t explode so much as glide, and yet he is one of the most prolific return men in NFL history.  His speed is real, even if he looks like he’s running slower than he’s capable of.  Alford has a similar gliding style of acceleration and speed, and wouldn’t you know it, he’s an effective kick returner himself, and his opponents know it.

I’m not excited about Alford, but I am interested to see what he does at the combine.  I don’t think Seattle would take a corner in the top two rounds, but it never hurts to do you homework.

The other player connected to Seattle was right tackle Jordan Mills from Louisiana Tech.  This information was second hand and came from the twitter page of Scott Bischoff.

Hearing that Seattle likes Louisiana Tech RT Jordan Mills a lot, earlier than you would think. He fits their running style perfectly.

— Scott Bischoff (@Bischoff_Scott) February 18, 2013

Hard to know what “earlier than you would think” means exactly.  Mill’s stock ranges from 3rd round to 5th round.  It’s not much, but below is a short video that shows 3 plays by Jordan Mills.

Obviously, I can’t scout from so little, but physically he reminds me of James Carpenter- very similar size and more of a mauler than an athlete.  Shows pretty good technique on the cut block and uses his arms well.  Feet seem slow, but then again he’s up against Damontre Moore in this clip.  He plays for the same team as Quinton Patton, so it could be worth checking out his pass protection in those videos.

Of course, it’s lying season, so it’s hard to tell if this interest is real at all.  I tend to lean towards “legit” ever so slightly, if only because we’re talking about a classic “coach him up” raw athlete at corner who fits Pete well, and a bulldozer at right tackle seems to fit Tom Cable’s modus operandi.  Where they actually end up drafted, who knows?

If nothing else, we can probably now deduce that corner and tackle are areas the Seahawks are looking at.  Either they really are interested in these players, or they are creating a smoke screen to distract from the players at those positions that they really like.  If they wanted to distract us with false interest, they wouldn’t use a corner to distract from a safety or a linebacker.  The tactic goes beyond simple deception- it’s main purpose is to help encourage players they are less interested in get selected ahead of players they are more interested in for a given position.

Last year John Schneider talked up Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, and even Austin Davis and Chandler Harnish, but rarely if ever talked about Russell Wilson.  I even said at the time that I thought that Schneider was probably talking up those players to help them get drafted before Wilson or Cousins.

It’s possible we could be seeing the same thing here- with Pete and John trying to muddy an already murky draft pool.

Or, we could be looking at two future Seahawks.  I guess we’ll find out.

Firstly, please welcome Kip Earlywine back to the blog. His latest article is now available so check it out by clicking here.

Mike Mayock said via conference call today that Cincinnati pass rusher Walter Stewart would be a top ten pick if healthy. It’s an interesting angle. I’ve posted his tape vs Pittsburgh above. I’ve not spent a great deal of time studying him, in part due to the injury issues. For more information, check out this piece by Jeff Darlington. Essentially, he has a rare back issue that could end his career before it’s really begun.

Mayock also mentioned today that he’d “bang the table” for Alec Ogletree as a top ten pick without the off-field issues, claimed Sheldon Richardson had “the movement skills of a linebacker” and projected Barkevious Mingo to go in the 25-40 range. Could he be an option for Seattle as another LEO prospect? Is he too similar to Bruce Irvin? Mingo might actually be a great option for Gus Bradley and Jacksonville at #33, presuming they go defensive tackle at #2.

Matt Barkley will not throw at the combine. This isn’t a surprise. In fact, I’m not sure why initial noises suggested Barkley would throw. He had nothing to gain aiming to unfamiliar guys in shorts in an unnatural environment, particularly as he’s still recovering from a shoulder injury. Instead, he’ll throw to Robert Woods at the USC pro-day. Wise decision.

Mike Florio reports that Barkley sent letters to all 32 NFL teams explaining his decision not to throw in Indianapolis.

Tony Pauline has updated his top-160 draft board today. A great sign of the depth available this year is the fact Pauline ranks Steadman Bailey and Robert Woods at #68 and #69 respectively. For me, Bailey is a fantastic and underrated prospect. I’ll have a piece about him on the blog tomorrow. He’s a top-40 player for me. I totally underestimated him during the season.

Danny Kelly at Field Gulls has put together a piece on what the Seahawks might be looking for during the combine work-outs: “Weeding through the vast amount of numbers won’t be easy, but here’s a quick little refresher course on what to keep an eye on, as it specifically relates to the Seahawks and their unique and mysterious grading scale.”

Dan Kadar at Mocking the Draft has an updated mock draft. The Seahawks take an interior pass rusher with upside. A player USC recruited during Pete Carroll’s tenure. And a guy who could continue to boost his stock at the combine this week.

Adam Schefter reports that Eddie Lacy won’t work out at the combine. A bad hamstring is not good news for a running back with first round potential:

After injuring his hamstring last week, Alabama RB Eddie Lacy now hopes to perform all drills at Alabama’s Pro Day on March 13. No combine.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 18, 2013

Gil Brandt names his top-25 players for the 2013 draft. No quarterbacks are named. The Seahawks pick at #25 with DeAndre Hopkins listed as the 25th best player. Interestingly, Sheldon Richardson is only at #19. I’d also argue Keenan Allen (#13) is too high and Eric Fisher (#22) is too low.

Albert Breer has a great piece on the changing ways of the combine and wonders if competitive drills are part of its future. The draft is becoming increasingly popular, and not just among over-anxious 20-year-old’s with self appointed ‘Senior Analyst’ titles. The combine is getting to be as big a deal as the draft itself. And as more and more people tune in, expect it to continue to adapt to a wider audience.

New Kansas City Chiefs GM Jon Dorsey had some high praise for Russell Wilson this week: “The most impressive interview I’ve ever had in the last 25 years of doing this? Russell Wilson. Wasn’t even close. You could feel that guy as a person, how strong he was, how intellectually deep he was, how mentally tough he was, that he had the charisma to lead other players. I always try to look at kids like I’m in the locker room and I’m a teammate. It was easy to see this guy leading a team.”

I’ve had a few people ask about a ‘big board’ type post and I’ve always been loathe to do those. Nothing makes me tune out more than hearing people refer to their ‘top-300 boards’ like anyone really cares who they have ranked at #277. For example, you will probably find the following sentence on a website such as B******r R****t shortly after the draft: “This is a bad pick because he’s only the 7th best safety on my top 300 board.”

Instead I decided to just throw down a list of my favourite players. I’m not going to pretend that I know who the 9th best punter is in the 2013 draft. I might even have missed a couple of names I’d want on there. These are a few guys that I like. There’s no specific order even though some of the more familiar names are at the top. I didn’t include certain positions — there’s only one quarterback because the Seahawks don’t need a quarterback, there’s no left tackles because the team doesn’t need a left tackle. There are a few safety’s listed but they are guys not necessarily going to go in the first or second round.

This April, roughly 255 amateur players will be drafted into the NFL.  Many hundreds more will be signed to post-draft contracts.  The amount of time required to sort, study, analyze, and choose among these options is staggering.  The process is urgent, challenging, sophisticated, and above all else:  guarded.  Like the sports world equivalent of the Manhattan Project.

And yet, for a process with enough information to fill a section at a library, draftniks and draftertainers find a way to boil it down to the most binary of terms, every year, without fail.  That distillation?  The draft is either “elite” or it isn’t.  And by elite, I mean elite in the top ten picks, which comprise just 4% of all the selections that will be made on draft weekend.  While GMs know perfectly well the value of a good 2nd round pick, draftertainers tend to display a laser focus on those high picks, as if to seriously suggest that those choices define the draft.

Pouring over this draft has been like pouring over a bag of dimes trying to figure out which ones are the shiniest.  But here’s the thing- it’s a really big bag of dimes.  While it’s true that relatively little separates the 3rd pick from the 33rd pick, there’s also little that separates the 50th pick from the 100th pick.  I haven’t been doing this forever, but I don’t believe I’ve ever seen a draft that was stronger top to bottom than this one.

It reminds me a little of 2009- some unremarkable yet over-hyped players dominated the top ten, and a lot of the talk before that draft was how it wasn’t a great draft.  Indeed, the first dozen picks of that draft were about as bust-laden as they come.  But for as bad as those early picks were, that draft recovered in a hurry.  After an atrocious top twelve, the next 50 picks took off, among them Clay Matthews, LeSean McCoy, Jairus Byrd, Brian Orakpo, Brian Cushing, Josh Freeman, Malcolm Jenkins, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Pettigrew, Percy Harvin, Alex Mack, Max Unger, Michael Oher, Vontae Davis, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, James Laurinaitis, Andy Levitre, Phil Loadholt, William Moore, Paul Kruger, and Sean Smith.  For good measure that draft also produced Mike Wallace in round three and Henry Melton in round four, and someone named Arian Foster went undrafted, thanks in part to Jim Mora.  And if you don’t know that story, take it from me, ignorance is bliss.

If there was ever a draft that made the obsession with top 10 picks look silly, it was that one.

I see history repeating itself in 2013.  Star Lotulelei will be like this year’s Aaron Curry, a guy who’s raw physical ability will entice enough to trump common sense and assure himself a selection in the top five picks.  Sharrif Floyd will be this year’s Tyson Jackson, who went from a 2nd round pick at the start of the year to a top 3 pick in late April.  It’s even possible they could be selected by the same team.  Matt Barkley is obviously this year’s Matt Stafford.  Mike Glennon and Ryan Nassib will battle for the honor of being this year’s Mark Sanchez.  EJ Manuel could very well be this year’s Pat White, and Geno Smith could end up having a similar up and down career to Josh Freeman. I never said this draft would be without it’s ugly parts.

But some early headscratchery aside, this draft will get awesome in a hurry.  You are going to see 1st round names going in the 2nd round, 2nd round names going in the 3rd round, and some 3rd round names going in the 5th round.  This draft is as unpredictable as anyone has seen in recent memory.  And the reason it’s unpredictable is because there might be 60 players who get talked about as top 32 round picks, and maybe 150 players who get talked about as top 60 picks.

The receiver and tight end class are incredibly deep.  As many as six tight ends could carry top 60 grades, and the list of top 100 receivers grows by the day.  Stedman Bailey and Markus Wheaton are great prospects.  They could go 25th overall, or they could go 125th overall.  There is just a sea of viable receivers this year.

Some of the best pass rushers are among the least heralded:  Jordan Hill, John Simon, Quanterus Smith, Armonty Bryant, Brandon Jenkins, Tank Carradine, David Bass, Corey Lemonier, Alex Okafor.  The first round will be dominated by defensive lineman, but the options remain deep long after despite that.

In a draft like this, a late first could look like Kawaan Short, a late second could look like Khaseem Greene, a late 3rd could look like Markus Wheaton, a late 4th could look like Jordan Reed.  Even in the 5th and 6th rounds, you’ll probably continue to hear familiar names get called.

And that is pretty damn exciting.  The homerun potential in this draft from start to finish is like Barry Bonds’ home run potential hitting off a tee in a little league game.

Who needs to tank a season for Julius Peppers at #2 when you can get Clay Matthews at #26?  Sure, it’s not that simple.  But elite talent rarely is.

Most people consider the first two rounds to be their “starter” rounds.  Let them think that.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks will do their thing from rounds 3-7, and celebrate a job well done.

Oh and hey, I’m back.  I hope you all are as jazzed as I am for this draft.

In my updated mock draft last week, I had the Seahawks taking Alec Ogletree at #25. He only lasted that far due to possible red flags over a four-game suspension in 2012 for a failed drugs test. His chances of making it into the 20’s (or later) increased this weekend with the news he was arrested and charged with DUI in Arizona a week ago.

Ogletree’s agent Pat Dye told Mike Florio at PFT:

“Last weekend, my client Alec Ogletree was pulled over for speeding and a lane violation in Arizon. After the officers smelled alcohol, they conducted tests and also cited him for DUI. Although Alec regrets this incident terribly, he is thankful that there was no accident and that no one was hurt. Because this matter is still pending, we cannot comment further publicly at this time.”

Quite aside from the rampant stupidity of drink driving, what on earth was Ogletree thinking? He’s currently in the middle of the biggest job interview of his career. You’d expect a person in that situation to be dedicated to their craft, working hard to be 100% for the combine. At the very least, you don’t expect him to be drinking — let alone drinking and then getting into the driver’s seat of a car.

I’m a big fan of Ogletree’s on-field performance and his upside is through the roof. He could be a sensational player in the NFL. Yet stuff like this makes you want to run a mile. Can you trust a guy who jeopardises his college career with a failed drugs test, gets arrested as a freshman on a misdemeanor theft-by-taking charge and now this?

The interview process at the combine just became a lot harder for Ogletree. He’s going to have to explain his actions to anyone who’ll listen. But how do you explain them? Some GM’s and coaches won’t be prepared to listen and will presumably strike him off their boards immediately. If it was a one-off, you might be prepared to see through this. With an ever growing list of incidents, he runs the serious risk of falling much further than his talent deserves.

I suppose the question is, would the Seahawks take a chance? He’s undoubtedly skilled, appears perfect for Seattle’s defense and could be a star at the next level. There just aren’t many linebackers with his range, coverage skill and ability to play the edge as a pass rusher. He’d be a dynamic counter to any team looking to use the read option against the Seahawks while also potentially improving the teams third-down defense. He’s not a perfect player and you’d like to see more consistent effort. Yet there’s still so much to like about his game.

It’s also worth noting that Seattle’s front office hasn’t completely avoided players with perceived character issues. Bruce Irvin and Marshawn Lynch were both considered ‘risky’ investments. The team also coveted Brandon Marshall and had a look at Kellen Winslow and Terrell Owens. John Schneider and Pete Carroll aren’t afraid of a challenge.

Then you compare him to a player like Khaseem Greene — a picture of professionalism, an engaging character and a good enough athlete to usurp Ogletree on a lot of draft boards. Given the choice of the two, I suspect the Seahawks might choose Greene. They’d have to really appreciate Ogletree’s upside to see past the red flags. Greene is a saint in comparison.

Many players have had incidents like this and moved on. There’s nothing to say this won’t be a much needed wake up call for Alec Ogletree. Sometimes a player needs an epiphany moment to get their act together. If he’s willing to learn from this latest mistake and begin to mature and take responsibility for his actions, rolling the dice could prove to be a calculated gamble. He’s a very talented football player. I wouldn’t strike him off my board yet, but I’d want to be one of the first teams to interview him in Indianapolis.

I was going to move Ogletree up to #13 in my updated mock this week, but I’m going to have to consider that idea. Round two isn’t out of the question now. The one saving grace might be that the Bengals — never a team to shirk away from a guy with character red flags — are in need of a 4-3 outside linebacker. With picks at #21, #37 and #53, Ogletree could be saved by Cincinnati. It’s a shame he might have to be saved by anyone.

The other saving grace will be the combine coming up so quickly after this news became public knowledge. Ogletree’s physical qualities should shine in Indianapolis. He could be one of the star’s of the show. If he turns up and dominates in a lot of drills, he’ll take back some momentum. He’s got a lot more work to do though to convince teams he can be trusted.

Players like Ogletree only ever fall because of issues like this and good teams have benefited in the past from overreactions to off-field concerns. It’s not like past and present Seahawks players haven’t dealt with similar issues. You could end up with a defining talent because of stuff like this. I’d recommend keeping an open-mind. As ridiculous as this news is on the players behalf, it could be a turning point. I hope so for his sake that proves to be the case. Ogletree has so much upside and potential, it’s still hard to imagine passing on him.

Mayock publishes pre-combine rankings

Mike Mayock is kind of the thinking man’s Mel Kiper. They both have great presence on the TV, make for terrific entertainment at this time of year and they also seem to do a lot of conference calls. While Kiper relies on sheer enthusiasm, Mayock gets into detail and reels off a series of catchphrases (sneaky athletic, quicker than fast, dancing bear etc). Personally, I think both do a great job. The draft is taken far too seriously these days and people like Kiper get chastised for basically doing what he’s always done — put a face to the coverage. Good for him.

Twitter, blogs (like this one) and websites like B*****r R****t are giving more and more people a voice, and everyone thinks they’re more qualified to talk about the draft than the next person. We/they aren’t. Call yourself ‘Senior analyst’ of a self-made draft website if you want. We’re all a bunch of fans and some of us are sad enough to spend our free time watching lots of college football. That doesn’t qualify us to work in an NFL front office. It perhaps gives us more motivation to put down a few words on a blog. But that’s about it. Most people don’t even write any more, they take the 140 characters on offer on Twitter and settle.

I was a little surprised to see some of the (mostly quarterback related) angst directed at Mayock’s pre-combine rankings yesterday. I expect Kiper to get abuse these days, even though most of it is unjustified. But hey, that’s the way the world is going right now. Some guy might think Matt Barkley is a bum who deserves a fourth round grade (he doesn’t). Others think Tyler Wilson is the greatest thing since sliced bread and are more than happy to ram that opinion down your throat. Everyone has a right to an opinion and a right to disagree. I thought Von Miller was overrated. I’m comfortable admitting that was an epic misjudgement. I just wish people wouldn’t take their own views so seriously sometimes.

Sure it was outrageous that Kiper had Colt McCoy in his top-25 throughout the 2010 build-up. But he’s always going to have views like that and hey — it gives people something to talk about. He’s a haircut that talks about the draft. And the whole event wouldn’t be the same without him.

(rant over)

Personally, I found Mayock’s rankings refreshing. It was great to see Khaseem Greene rated highly (#3 outside linebacker, ahead of Barkevious Mingo). Cordarrelle Patterson was ranked as the #1 receiver with Tyler Eifert edging Zach Ertz among tight ends. Geno Smith and Matt Barkley were the top two quarterbacks. Sharrif Floyd was the #1 defensive tackle — a trend we’re seeing more and more.

I would’ve had DeAndre Hopkins in the top five receivers (the biggest shock for me) but perhaps Mayock just hasn’t got round to the Clemson tape yet? I also would’ve liked to see him separate the rush linebackers (Mingo, Jarvis Jones, Dion Jordan) from the orthodox 4-3 guys (Greene, Arthur Brown). Yet overall Mayock provides a solid list. And without doubt when the combine roles around this week, he’ll be compulsive listening on the NFL Network. Just like Kiper and Todd McShay will be with their ‘First Draft’ podcasts. They are ‘draft entertainment’. Let’s appreciate them for what they are.

Vance McDonald tape

One of the players generating some hype pre-combine is Rice receiver/tight end Vance McDonald. He’s 6-5, 260lbs and had a solid week at the Senior Bowl according to reports. The suggestion is he’ll shine in Indianapolis this week despite his size and possibly push his stock into the second round.

Personally, I can’t tell how good or bad he is on tape.

The Rice offense is such that he isn’t running many conventional routes. In the tape below he basically lined up in the slot and took screen passes from the quarterback. I guess it’s indicative of his athletic potential if they’re trying to put the ball in his hands in space — that’s pretty unique at 260lbs. Yet one of the things I like so much about Zach Ertz is you can see him run pretty much a full route tree in college. He gets downfield, he works over the middle, he runs the post and the slant. You know what you’re getting.

With a guy like McDonald, there’s much more of an unknown. He needs to impress at the combine to prove he’s worthy of the investment, so you can get him into your roster and work him into a joker tight end. If he doesn’t flash the kind of athleticism people are talking about, I’m not sure the hype will be justified. I’ve seen Jordan Reed find an inch of space, explode and run from third to fifth gear quickly. It gets you excited, you start to wonder how good he could be. McDonald needs to prove he also has that ‘wow’ factor.

One thing that does bother me are his hands. He seems to bobble a lot of passes, or at least paw at them. He was responsible for a bad pick-six in against Baylor because he just bats the ball straight to a defensive back. The pass wasn’t great and thrown slightly behind, but I didn’t think much to the catching effort. He had a couple of bad drops in the tape too. On the plus side, he managed to get pretty open on the second touchdown in the same game and he showed sure hands on that occasion. I also liked a difficult catch McDonald made over the middle against Houston for a decent gain.

At the moment there are four tight ends I’d be willing to draft in the first two rounds — Ertz, Escobar Reed and Eifert. In that order. I wasn’t thrilled with Travis Kelce’s tape — he rounded off a ton of routes, looks better as a blocker than a receiver and maybe the long, dramatic touchdown in his final play as a college player has boosted his stock a little too much. He’s a mid-round pick for me and more of an orthodox tight end compared to the likes of Ertz or Reed.

Two quarterbacks will go early

Pat Kirwan has an insightful video on CBS Sportsline considering the drafts ‘risers and sliders’. He makes a fantastic point about Geno Smith and Matt Barkley.

Essentially, teams without quarterbacks are not going to wait and see how things pan out and risk missing out. You can win in the NFL with Smith and Barkley. If you’re Arizona and you pass on a quarterback at #7, what happens if 2-3 players leave the board unexpectedly before your second round pick? Are you then trying to force an expensive move up the board for a player you don’t really want? Settling for someone you don’t want at all? Or are you facing another year of John Skelton? There is no way — NO WAY — the Cardinals aren’t proactive with this position.

You could say the same for Kansas City and Buffalo too. One way or another, at least two quarterbacks are likely to go in the top ten. And the two most likely to go in that range are Smith and Barkley. Compounding the issue is the lack of elite defensive talent. There are some good players and a ton of depth in the 2013 draft. But there aren’t players that are going to make quarterback-needy teams avoid their greatest need.

Free agency could change things, particularly if the Kansas City Chiefs pursue possible trade-target Nick Foles. Buffalo could look at Alex Smith as a stop-gap while Ryan Mallett has done enough in New England to warrant trade consideration for a team like Arizona. Roll on March 12th when the new league year opens.

Kirwan also touches on Jarvis Jones’ stock and suggests he’ll fall due to his spinal stenosis issue, an issue we discussed in some detail in November.

Freeney leaving Indy, is he an option in Seattle?

The Indianapolis Colts today revealed they won’t offer a new contract to Dwight Freeney. It’s not a complete shock. The five sacks he contributed last year cost the grand total of $14.035m. Even if both parties had the motivation to get a new deal done, the Colts weren’t in a great bargaining position considering his 2012 salary.

Inevitably people will wonder if he fits in Seattle. Let’s say he doesn’t not fit in Seattle. After all, Freeney is better suited to the 4-3 rather than the 3-4 he played in last year. I’m not overly excited about the idea of getting Freeney. If it was a really cheap, throwaway deal to cover Chris Clemons I’d consider it. Anything more than that and I take the stance that Freeney’s better days are in the past. He’ll turn 33 in four days time and his production has gradually been declining.

The thing is, the Seahawks almost have to consider a move like this. They face a tricky situation over the next few weeks. While Clemons is out, they need another LEO — whether Bruce Irvin gets to start or not. You need two LEO’s. Cliff Avril will generate a deal worth around $10m per year, Osi Umenyiora could also be costly and Michael Johnson might get a surprisingly high contract. I’m not sure Michael Bennett is a scheme fit.

One player who might be worth monitoring is Connor Barwin. Houston are notoriously tight and Barwin doesn’t turn 27 until October. He’s 6-4 and 268lbs. He’s not a dominating pass rusher but he has good length and could work into a LEO.

Freeney might present the best value for money in comparison, but that should be the case given his age and declining skill set. Yet given the circumstances you can definitely make an argument for bringing him in. It just depends what he’s asking for. If he has unrealistic ambitions of getting even half of the $14.035m he earned in 2012 then you move on. If he’s willing to take a Raheem Brock-style contract, that’s palatable.

I might feel differently about this when contract demands emerge, but I’d like to see the Seahawks entertain the possibility of adding a proven defensive tackle (Henry Melton, Randy Starks). That really opens up the draft so you can look at guys like Khaseem Greene, Arthur Brown and maybe Alec Ogletree if he falls. You can also consider a tight end or receiver at #25. Investing big in a LEO might be harder to justify given Clemons’ salary and Irvin’s first round cost. Finding a stop-gap such as Freeney, if he’ll play for a modest deal, might be the best option if doubts remain over Clemons’ availability.

Keenan Allen isn’t all that

According to Tony Pauline, Keenan Allen, “Has not looked anything special in combine training nor has he separated himself from the almost dozen wide outs he’s working out with in Florida.”

This isn’t a major surprise. In November I wrote a piece questioning whether Allen deserved all the top-15 praise he was getting. He won’t run well at the combine and I suspect his measurements will be fairly average too. The offense in California was so bad, it really limited his ability to develop and polish up his technique. So you’re basically getting a non-spectacular athlete without the ability to flash crisp routes or safe hands.

While it’s been assumed Allen will be a first round pick, I think there’s a good chance he’ll dip into round two. And I’ve thought that for some time. Don’t forget he’s also returning from injury.

Right now Pauline is the defining draft insider. He consistently comes out with little nuggets of information with a proven track record and his site DraftInsider.net should be a daily visit. In his latest blog post he also praises the potential of Steadman Bailey, Ryan Swope and Gavin Escobar. He’s also hearing negative things about Tyler Wilson: “Last week I was told several teams had a third round grade on Wilson. Teams are seemingly concerned with Wilson’s small hands, which measured 8.58-inches at the Senior Bowl. Sources told me most teams have a cut off at 9-inches for quarterbacks and Wilson was the only one in Mobile under that number.”

Would the Seahawks really draft another injured pass rusher?

Josh Norris updated his mock draft today and had the Seahawks taking FSU’s Cornellius ‘Tank’ Carradine at #25. It’s an interesting mock on the whole, but I have serious doubts about the projection for Seattle.

It’s bad enough that the team is going to be sweating over Chris Clemons in 2013. They’re scheduled to pay him $8.17m this year and $9.66m in 2014. I don’t have the guaranteed totals and breakdown information to determine how likely it is he’ll get that salary over the next two seasons, but the fact is he’s due to earn a lot.

The risk factor just seems too strong to then go and take a player with the exact same ACL tear and hope that either or both are healthy by September. Improving the pass rush is too important for this team. Relying on two players with ACL injuries would be incredibly unnerving and borderline foolish, both financially and production-wise.

John Schneider and Pete Carroll have so far tried to draft immediate starters in the first three rounds. Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, James Carpenter, John Moffitt, Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner and Russell Wilson all started straight away in some capacity. The one player who took a little while to adapt was Golden Tate — which isn’t a total shocker given the amount of technical improvement he required after leaving Notre Dame.

Drafting Carradine in round one would go against their philosophy so far. I’m not sure he’s good enough to justify the long term planning plus the obvious risk involved.

The dream draft?

Hunter Ansley published a four round mock draft today. The Seahawks get Sheldon Richardson in round one and DeAndre Hopkins at #56.

Yes. Please.

I may well compile a ‘big board’ this year, something I haven’t done in the past. I feel it’s maybe a little more justified this season with the Seahawks picking 25th overall rather than in the top-15. If/when I do compile that big board, Sheldon Richardson and DeAndre Hopkins would both be in the top ten.

I’d settle for either being available at #25, let alone both.

Charting the unpredictable

The above mock from Ansley may sound a little idealistic, perhaps even unrealistic. But the fact is nobody can call how the 2013 draft will play out. It’s going to be more unpredictable than ever before. Could the Seahawks really get Sheldon Richardson and DeAndre Hopkins? I wouldn’t rule it out.

Emphasising how unpredictable things are, here’s a nice piece from Kenneth Arthur at Field Gulls. He highlights how contrasting people’s views are, with the quarterbacks proving to be the most divisive. This quote sums it up perfectly, “The funny thing about this years draft is that its common to have a polarizing quarterback. It’s less common to have five of them.”

Jon Gruden quarterback camp 2013

In what has quickly become a draft tradition, Jon Gruden will again be hosting his ‘QB Camp’ series this year. Matt Barkley, Tyler Bray, Zac Dysert, Mike Glennon, Landry Jones, E.J. Manuel, Ryan Nassib, Geno Smith and Tyler Wilson will take part.

There’s a twist for 2013, however. Luke Joeckel, Marcus Lattimore and Manti Te’o will also be appearing. It’s not the first time Gruden’s interviewed non-quarterbacks — he spoke to Earl Thomas amongst others prior to the 2010 draft.

Gruden was less critical in 2012 with the quarterbacks and I hope he continues to grill the players rather than revert to his ultra-positive MNF persona. It’s good to see these guys out of their comfort zone in an extended feature where they can’t just reel off scripted cliche’s. It’s also good to get the players working the white board. One of the more memorable moments in 2011 was seeing Ryan Mallett put together his favourite play with ultimate detail. Expect Tyler Wilson — another former Bobby Petrino quarterback — to similarly stand out here.

It’s a good move by Lattimore’s representatives to get him on the show. You’ll struggle to find a more engaging character in football and I guarantee right now he’ll be the most impressive player from the group appearing on the show. Matt Barkley will be a close second.

For nostalgia’s sake, here’s Russell Wilson’s appearance from last year:

Free agency kicks off on March 12th and truly, anything could happen. The Seahawks were big players the year they added Sidney Rice, Robert Gallery and Zach Miller (they also re-signed Brandon Mebane). In 2010 they wined and dined Brandon Marshall. Last year things were a little quieter apart from the re-signing of Red Bryant and the addition of Matt Flynn.

So what happens in 2013? Will they go big to try and improve the pass rush? Will they take a back seat and concentrate on the draft? With the team so close to reaching the NFC Championship, do you make the big splash to try and get over the line? Or do you recognise how many teams have chased the dream — failed — and then been left to face the consequences?

The Rice and Miller signings were seen to be jump starts — moves that would increase the speed of the rebuild. Let’s not forget just how bad this roster was when Pete Carroll and John Schneider took over. Now that it’s in a much healthier position, do they really need to go big in free agency again? Perhaps, but only for the right player.

The one that probably stands out more than any other this year is Henry Melton in Chicago. A running back in college, Melton made the unusual transition to defensive end and then eventually to tackle. Somewhat against the odds, he’s been among the leagues best three-techniques in recent seasons. A staple in Lovie Smith’s Tampa-2 scheme, he’s looked the part within a star-studded Bears defense.

A lot has changed in Chicago recently, including Smith’s departure. Perhaps priorities have changed too? Despite fielding a top-ranked defense, the Bears couldn’t protect their main asset. Jay Cutler doesn’t usually need any encouragement to start carelessly winging the ball into coverage, but that reckless nature’s been stoked by a lack of time in the pocket. The Bears’ offensive line has been a revolving door of mediocre talent. And when they finally decided to address the issue, they wasted a first round pick on Gabe Carimi.

Great job, guys.

Failing to sufficiently protect Cutler prompted the changes in Chicago. After all, they spent a small fortune on a quarterback thinking he’d win a title or two. Having leaned on the defense and managed only one NFC North title in the Cutler-era, the new plan appears to be offense-centric. Marc Trestman is an intellectual, offensive mind. He’s already made it clear his priority is to do a better job protecting the quarterback. The entire offensive line could be set for a rebuild.

Jake Long, for me, looks like a Bear in the making. He’ll be the top rated left tackle hitting the market if he gets out of Miami. Surprisingly, despite a decent chunk of cap room (+$30m), the Dolphins have shown little motivation to speak to any of their pending free agents. If Trestman is serious about protecting Cutler, they can’t rely on a tackle being there with the 20th overall pick. The three top left tackles — Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson — could all be off the board by San Diego at #11. Signing Long would put the Bears in a strong position and allow them to target the two guard spots in the first round.

Long + Jonathan Cooper = better Jay Cutler… Probably.

The only problem is, Chicago has just $13.3m available in cap space. There’s not a ton of wiggle room if they want to go chasing big name free agents. Long could generate a contract worth up to $9-10m per year. They can structure the deal to lessen the hit in 2013, but when you’re paying big contracts to Cutler, Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Julius Peppers and others, you can put yourself in a big hole if you keep signing expensive free agents.

Going back to Melton, if the Bears want to franchise him it’ll cost $8.3m. That’s not an unreasonable sum but it’s big enough to take the Bears out of the free agency market for several other players. As the franchise moves in a new direction, they could be prepared to take a hit by losing Melton. What is more important to the franchise? Keeping Melton, or going after Long? It could be an either/or situation.

It’s worth noting that while I referred to ‘change’ earlier, one thing that won’t change is Chicago’s defensive scheme. New coordinator Mel Tucker has already revealed he’s sticking with the 4-3 and won’t even be changing the terminology used under Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli. If Melton leaves, it won’t be because the Bears don’t want or need him. I suspect they’d love to keep him, but it’s all about priorities.

So what about the Seahawks? He’ll turn 27 in October so on a four-year deal you’d be fairly confident about getting at least three years of peak performance. He recorded thirteen sacks in his last two seasons. He’s really the kind of player Seattle has lacked so far — an interior penetrator who consistently collapses the pocket. It helps that he’s had the chance to play on the same line as Julius Peppers. How much has it helped? Would he be the same force in Seattle’s defense?

Essentially that’s what it all boils down to. If you’re paying top price for a free agent, you want instant gratification. That’s hard to find, whoever you are.

Schneider and Carroll spent big on an injury prone Sidney Rice and had no qualms about going after Zach Miller. They also had plenty of background on Rice from Darrell Bevell and Tom Cable knew all about Miller and Robert Gallery. Will anyone be banging the table for Melton? And how influential was that vouch-for-factor in dishing out the big contracts in 2011?

One thing that could play into Seattle’s hands is the strong class of defensive tackles in the draft. Potential competitors for Melton’s services might feel confident about entering the Sheldon Richardson/Sharrif Floyd/Star Lotulelei sweepstakes and resist the temptation to offer a big contract. All three would be a lot cheaper, even if they go in the top ten. Unfortunately at #25 the Seahawks have little chance of getting at this talented trio.

It’s rare that a team gets the opportunity to sign one of the leagues best three techniques. The Seahawks have $18.6m in cap space and that will increase if they release or trade Matt Flynn. The key factor could be how it impacts being able to re-sign the teams own free agents over the next few years. Eventually guys like Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Golden Tate and K.J. Wright will be looking for new contracts. This will be off-set by the likes of Zach Miller seeing a reduction in salary, but being in a position to keep throwing unused cap space forward into future seasons is crucial to ‘keep the band together’.

Melton was a fourth round pick. Geno Atkins was a fourth round pick. Darnell Docket went in round three. In a contract sense, the team would benefit explicitly from finding their own version in the draft rather than going after a big name free agent.

Unfortunately, that’s easier said than done. We’re talking about a position that’s notoriously hard to scout. The Seahawks drafted Jaye Howard in round four last year, probably hoping he could be the next mid-round gem. Instead he spent most of the year on the inactive list, even when Jason Jones was placed on injured reserve. Greg Scruggs forced his way onto the field as a rookie, Howard could not.

The search will probably continue this year and there’s a couple of guys that really intrigue me. One is Kaleb Ramsey at Boston College — a player hampered by injury issues. He’s likely to be a late round pick or UDFA because he couldn’t stay healthy. However, I’d take a flier on him with the hope his fortunes change at the next level. Ramsey’s a really talented player who would’ve been a much higher draft pick had he avoided the injuries.

The other intriguing player is Jordan Hill at Penn State. I cannot talk highly enough of this guy. I’ve put his tape on the blog before, but I’ve re-posted the Wisconsin game below for anyone who missed it. He’s solid against the run despite a lack of pure size (6-0/6-1, 295lbs), he gets into the backfield to make plays and he’s got that little spark to his game that you want to see from a three technique. Any defensive lineman at that size who performs well against Wisconsin deserves a ton of credit.

John Schneider and Pete Carroll might decide to trust their ability to find a mid-round prospect like Hill that negates the need to spend big in free agency. Presumably there would also be some concern that a guy taken later in the draft just wouldn’t have an impact (like Jaye Howard). Then what? Another year of mediocre pass rush costing the team wins?

It’s a tough balancing act. Trying to address the problem and failing on a third or fourth round salary won’t cripple the franchise. Spending big and not getting value for money could, especially if it jeopardises your ability to re-sign players who are actually doing their jobs. A conservative approach would be financially sound, but not taking the occasional gamble could cost you the chance to win a title.

I think Carroll is trying to create a culture of reward. You play well for this team, buy in to what we’re doing and we’ll look after you. I’m not sure he’ll be so desperate to reward other team’s players unless they absolutely take this roster to the next level. Will Henry Melton do that? Is he that much of a difference maker?

Don’t rule out Alan Branch re-signing with the Seahawks instead. If they want to keep size up the middle, then he’s an option. He performed fairly well for two years, would be relatively cheap and he’s familiar with the team. Randy Starks is another option and a player Carroll highlighted for praise when Seattle were beaten by Miami during the regular season. Starks plays the run brilliantly for a guy weighing just over 300lbs. He’s also a very capable pass rusher and made the Pro-Bowl this year.

Yet both players lack the kind of star power Melton possesses. If the team really is serious about improving the pass rush, replacing Jason Jones might not be enough. If Chris Clemons doesn’t make an Adrian Peterson-style recovery from his ACL injury, if anything Seattle’s pass rush could be even weaker in 2013. You could argue it’s crying out for a big splash, especially if the best defensive line prospects leave the board early on draft day.

One final note on Melton — during the pre-draft work outs and All-star games he was listed at around 260-270lbs and played defensive end. During the Texas vs Nation work outs he featured exclusively at end. The Bears took him in the middle rounds and moved him inside. He’s since added weight, maintained his athleticism and turned into an interior force. Datone Jones similarly weighed as little as 260lbs at UCLA for a time but got up to around 280lbs for the Senior Bowl. He also has a similar athletic quality to his play and was recruited by USC during Carroll’s time at Southern Cal. Just a few things to remember.

In terms of other prospective free agent defensive tackles, I’m not sure the Seahawks would necessarily look at failed top-ten picks like Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis. Both have been pretty disappointing so far. You could argue Dorsey has played out of position in the 3-4, but in the year he turns 28 can you rely on him to suddenly explode at the three? Ellis has been one of the bigger busts from the 2008 draft. He has history with Pete Carroll at USC and really that’s the only thing that makes this a viable suggestion. The best he can probably hope for is an opportunity to compete.

The Raiders are going to struggle to keep any of their free agents because they’re already over the cap, meaning Desmond Bryant is likely to be available. He’s probably the best option after Melton and Starks with eight sacks in the last two years. Tom Cable will likely give the front office an inside track here. He’s 6-6 and 311lbs meaning the continuation of size up the middle plus a pass-rush upgrade over Alan Branch. At the right price, the Seahawks could show some interest. He’ll turn 28 in December.

Team mate Richard Seymour also had a better 2012 season than most people give him credit for. But with his 34th birthday due in October, he’s unlikely to be anything more than a stop-gap.

Jordan Hill (DT, Penn State) tape vs Wisconsin