The more I watch of Zach Ertz, the more impressed I become. It’s not that he’s a physical freak of a tight end like Jimmy Graham. He’s not going to enter the league and dominate like Rob Gronkowski. What he is going to do is provide excellent run blocking qualities with the ability to make key, consistent catches.
Without a big-name receiver expected to go in the top ten next April, we could see a player like Ertz move swiftly up the boards. Teams like Miami and St. Louis need to build around their quarterbacks and find some weapons. Ertz isn’t going to offer a Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green type of aid, but he will provide a safety net while his run blocking will keep him on the field for any play call. The Rams in particular make a lot of sense here. With two first round picks in 2013 and 2014 following the RGIII trade, the Rams could theoretically draft a left tackle (Luke Joeckel?) and Zach Ertz within the top fifteen picks. And that would make a lot of sense.
Ultimately his stock will be judged by how much of a difference maker he can be. As nice as a good run blocking tight end can be, nothing compensates for difference making ability in the passing game. It helps that Ertz lines up all over the field – split out wide, in the slot – and he’s shown the ability to create separation and make plays. For the year he has 818 yards and six touchdowns – both team highs. In fact he has more than double the number of catches, yardage and touchdowns to the second most productive pass catcher at Stanford – fellow tight end Levine Toilolo. But he needs to prove he has what it takes to repeat this production at the next level. Teams will want to see how he tests at the combine, as the position itself is largely defined by athleticism and size.
So what about the Seahawks? Although the tight ends in Seattle haven’t featured much in terms of receptions, they have actually played a pretty significant role under Pete Carroll. While the more modern day tight end is being asked to run routes rather than pass protect, the Seahawks aren’t running a particularly modern offense. They want to run the ball, they want to protect the quarterback and limit turnovers. Carroll also seemingly wants to make quick strikes in the passing game as a compliment to the run. Unless you do find that dynamic downfield tight end, it’s pretty difficult to find a home-run hitting player at the position.
They do run a lot of play action though and the tight end’s production might increase as young quarterback Russell Wilson becomes more familiar with the system. Already in recent weeks Zach Miller has seen his number of targets rise. In the last three games, Wilson has thrown at Miller 14 times. In the first three games of the season, he had just eight looks. As things open up, Miller’s role could increase further.
Miller’s presence on the roster also has to be taken into consideration when considering the draft. According to Sportrac, he’s set to take up $11m of cap space in 2013. Whether that sum is negotiated down in the off-season remains to be seen, but it makes any further big investments at the tight end position a bit of a luxury. It is also worth considering the teams pursuit of Kellen Winslow though – and clearly they were open to the idea of adding another tight end who can factor into the passing game. Likewise, they’ve tried to get Anthony McCoy more involved with inconsistent results so far. If they believed they could split Ertz into different positions to create mismatches and if they felt he was enough of a difference maker he could be an option. As with the teams in the early first round – if Ertz lasts to the Seahawks pick, he might be a more favourable pick-up than any of the receivers.
Of course there’s always the counter suggestion of ‘waiting’ given the investment in Miller. The Seahawks don’t desperately need a tight end. They could theoretically wait to draft a Gavin Escobar out of San Diego State for example – a player with the kind of athletic potential to be a productive pass-catcher if not a great run blocker.
Even so, I sense Ertz is one to watch. The Seahawks apparently showed a fair amount of interest in another Stanford tight end in Coby Fleener, as noted by Eric Williams here. Ertz is a more rounded prospect and certainly a more attractive run blocker for me – and that could appeal more than anything to Seattle’s front office. There are no character issues and he’s quite a mature and grounded individual, unlike some of the receivers eligible for 2013. If he lasts until the Seahawks pick, he could be on the radar next April.
Receiver watch
Elsewhere today….
Cordarrelle Patterson possibly played his last game for Tennessee in a win over Kentucky. He led the Vols with 88 receiving yards and scored this touchdown. He also added 38 rushing yards from two carries and totalled 32 return yards. He has a lot of strings to his bow and will be a playmaker at the next level. The question is, can he mature and find a level of consistency?
Brandon Coleman at Rutgers only had one reception in a 27-6 defeat to Pittsburgh. Thankfully, it was an 11 yard score which you can see by clicking here. Coleman’s production has been mediocre, but his upside and potential is off the charts. The Seahawks have had scouts at multiple Rutgers games this year.
Markus Wheaton had another productive day for Oregon State, this time against rivals Oregon. Despite losing the game, Wheaton recorded 98 yards from seven receptions. He’s flying under the radar and warrants much more hype.
DeAndre Hopkins had one catch against South Carolina – a 43 yard touchdown. Click here to see it. Few players have Hopkins’ level of control, catching ability in traffic and smooth route running. Like Wheaton, he deserves more hype.
And finally…
Georgia linebacker Alec Ogletree did this today. I’ll be watching the Georgia Tech vs Georgia tape on Sunday.
Keenan Allen is one of the toughest guys to work out. He definitely looks the part. Allen’s listed at 6-3, 210lbs by ESPN, although Scout.com had him at 6-2 during recruiting. Either way he’ll handle the physical nature of the NFL and shouldn’t have too much difficulty competing with the bigger corners we’re seeing in the pro’s.
He came into the 2012 season being touted as a likely first round pick. The thing is, he was never going to get there with production. California’s passing game isn’t even mediocre and Allen was fortunate to register 737 yards and six touchdowns before picking up a season-ending knee injury. Has he shown enough quality within a limited passing offense to warrant a first round grade? The jury’s out.
Size is good, but you have to be able to do something with it. If a receiver can’t get downfield or create separation, he’s going to be pretty limited at the next level. Allen’s a good route runner which helps and he’s been able to find space with crisp breaks and a suddenness off the snap. What he hasn’t shown is that ability to consistently break off big plays in the open field or make downfield completions. His biggest play of the year was a 69 yard catch and run against Washington State for a touchdown (click here). Apart from that? In four games this season his biggest play failed to top 25 yards. His touchdown against Washington State is the only play of 50+ yards this year. The highlight reel would be pretty short.
Of course i’s not all about big plays or statistics and again – we have to keep stressing how weak the offense has been at California. It’s cost Jeff Tedford his job as Head Coach. A lack of explosion is a legitimate question mark with Allen though – is he special enough to warrant the high pick? Does athleticism match frame? Jonathan Baldwin had similarly poor production at Pittsburgh and also seemingly had a rare combination of size and speed. However, Baldwin flashed multiple big plays even within a bad offense at Pitt. And when he got to Indianapolis, he did enough to convince the Kansas City Chiefs they needed to spend a late first round pick on his services.
Allen’s lack of pure speed is the biggest concern as well as balance. On too many plays he appears to stumble and lose balance quickly. For a player who is very controlled and crisp with his routes, there are quite a few missed opportunities where he trips up trying to make YAC. As for the speed, Scout.com listed his high school forty yard dash as 4.57. They graded him as a five star safety prospect who also played receiver, but raised questions about his closing speed in the secondary. “Not incredible speed, but more than enough to get the job done” is how they put it.
Allen had a lot of admirers in high school, including all the big talent recruiters – Alabama, Clemson, North Carolina and Oregon. He turned down the chance to stay in state with UNC or Clemson to join his half-brother Zach Maynard at California. Here are the positives as I see it – frame, good hands catcher, very competitive individual on the field, route runner and for a receiver he comes across as a humble and hard working team mate. There are plenty of reasons why you’d consider drafting Allen in the first or second round.
However, few prospects have as much to gain (or lose) from the combine. The list of positives above look very good alongside a 6-3, 210lbs receiver who runs something like a 4.45. With straight line speed like that, you can work on his open field running and feel a little more confident he can offer something downfield at the next level. He’s added about 20lbs since high school when he supposedly ran a 4.57. If he gets to Indianapolis and matches that time – or even gets into the 4.6’s – that will have a big negative impact on his draft stock.
There are other receivers eligible for 2013 (such as Markus Wheaton and DeAndre Hopkins) who lack the size and frame of Allen, but have all of the same route running skills, the hands, the attitude – but they also have deep speed and an X-Factor that’s been lacking in Allen’s game. It might be a year where we don’t see a receiver leave the board in the first round, but eventually it’s going to get very competitive with multiple players at the position leaving the board quickly. Flashing big-time athleticism at the combine is key for Allen and will make or break his stock. It’ll determine whether he goes in the late first like Jonathan Baldwin, or whether he ends up being the 5th or 6th receiver off the board.
Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins could go earlier than people think
This is actually turning into a pretty interesting receiver class. John Schneider admitted he wasn’t too enamoured with 2012’s group, but I wonder what he’ll make of this one? There’s a lot of range, a lot of different body types and skill sets. You would think there’d be a player or two of interest.
In 2008 no receivers were taken in round one, but when Donnie Avery was selected at #33 overall it created a scramble. Ten wide outs were taken in the second round, including the easily forgettable Devin Thomas, James Hardy, Dexter Jackson and Limas Sweed. Also among the group were Jordy Nelson and DeSean Jackson. I suspect something similar will happen next April, perhaps just a little earlier.
There’s unlikely to be a receiver drafted in the top ten, unless of course Brandon Coleman turns pro and puts in a star turn at the combine. I’ve been including Coleman in my mocks through sheer hope rather than expectation – because he really should go back to Rutgers for another season of college football. Even if he does turn pro, he’s still no lock for the top ten. He does have the size (6-6), speed and catching ability to generate major interest as a high pick, but he’s only a redshirt sophomore and plays to his level of experience at times.
Assuming Coleman stays at Rutgers, you could be looking at the first receiver leaving the board in the 20-25 range. The teams that list a receiver among their greatest needs (Miami, St. Louis) will pick in the top ten and will probably wait until round two or use free agency. Those currently projected to pick in the middle of the first round (Cincinnati, New Orleans, Arizona) will prioritise other positions. There are exceptions, such as the New York Jets, who could make light work of this suggestion. However, value meets need best for the receivers at around the #20 overall mark as things stand.
One player who could yet change things is California’s Keenan Allen. He didn’t have an amazing year for Cal, but then he was severely limited playing within a mediocre passing game. Jeff Tedford has been fired as a consequence and a player like Allen hasn’t been able to max out his potential during college. It’s easy to forget he had offers from all the big schools – including Alabama – but chose Cal to play with his quarterback brother. It’s a nice family story, but unfortunately the working relationship hasn’t paid off. Allen had just one 100+ yard receiving game this year before getting injured – against struggling Washington State.
Nobody can deny Allen looks the part. He’s a prototypical big receiver at 6-3 and 210lbs. He looks fluid running routes and isn’t heavy on his feet despite a filled out frame. He looks primed to deal with the physical approach of the NFL. But is he special enough? We didn’t see many explosive plays this year, just a lot of coming back on a route to bail out the quarterback. He fits, he chips away. Allen has that rare intensity and spirit in a receiver that has certainly helped A.J. Green make a quick impact in the league. Yet he’s going to need to prove he also has athletic potential to match the size. A great combine and Allen could be a top-20 pick. If he runs a slow 4.5 – you’re talking second round.
Whenever the first receiver is drafted next April, there could be a mad rush. Like 2008, I think we might see as many as ten receivers quickly leave the board. Admittedly it’s still very early in the process and difficult to make a completely accurate projection when draft order hasn’t even been decided. However, we are approaching the end of the college season and have a good idea of the talent level available.
For example, teams looking for a dynamic playmaker will monitor a guy like Tavon Austin. He’s shown he does have the speed and range to warrant comparisons to Percy Harvin. On Saturday he rushed for 344 yards from 21 carries out of the pistol formation, flashing the ability to out-run the fastest Oklahoma defensive backs and break off huge gains. He’s going to be a first round pick, mainly due to his speed and range as a multi-faceted playmaker. Cordarrelle Patterson also has that home run-hitting ability and has scored touchdowns on kick and punt returns, receptions and rushes. As soon as either leaves the board, don’t be surprised if another team gets impatient about making sure they don’t miss out on the other. They could leave the board shortly after each other.
Markus Wheaton and Robert Woods aren’t anywhere near as ‘flashy’ and won’t score quite as many cheap points, but both should leave the board no later than the early second round. They have enough speed to create separation, but may struggle against physical cornerbacks. Woods is a little sturdier and has better production at USC, but Wheaton is quicker and a more important fixture for his team. Both a superior players to A.J. Jenkins, who was drafted at the end of the first round last April.
Justin Hunter could still have an impact if he declares – he’s rated by many as a potential high pick. It’s hard not to appreciate his controlled routes and likeness to A.J. Green physically, but the truth is he’s had a poor year with bad drops and not enough explosion after recovering from a bad knee injury. I’ve never been truly sold on Terrance Williams at Baylor – he looks like a product of his environment without stand out physical tools. Da’Rick Rogers remains an interesting case after being kicked out of Tennessee and being forced to play at Tenn. Tech. Keep an eye on DeAndre Hopkins who could go much earlier than most people expect, while Coby Hamilton has enjoyed some big performance for Arkansas and certainly looks the part even if he lacks consistency.
How (I think) I’d rate the receivers today:
#1 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers)
#2 Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State)
#3 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
#4 Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#5 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
#6 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
#7 Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#8 Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#9 Coby Hamilton (WR, Arkansas)
#10 Terrance Williams (WR, Baylor)
Of course, if you want a player who can make 1-2 huge plays in a game and can be used in many different ways, you’d push Patterson and Austin nearer to the top. And if Keenan Allen runs a 4.4, you become a little bit more excited about his potential. So there’s still a lot to be decided between now and April. But you knew that already.
I included Markus Wheaton at #33 on the updated top 50 watch list yesterday, a sign of how keen I am to see him in Oregon State’s final couple of games. He’s not the biggest receiver at 6-1 and around 185lbs, but he’s up there with DeAndre Hopkins as one of the more under rated receivers eligible for the 2013 draft.
For the season he has 68 catches for 977 yards, including ten touchdowns. Wheaton’s a senior and put up similar numbers last year (73 catches, 986 yards) but he’s become a much greater scoring threat, having only made one touchdown in 2011.
He’s a consistent option who might not make too many big, explosive plays – but he has got the deep speed and he’s a consistent hands catcher. I’ve watched Wheaton a few times now and there are a few things that keep cropping up. Firstly, he’s a very willing blocker in the second level. He anticipates the running back finding the hole and will look to make blocks downfield to enhance a gain. Secondly, he does a fine job creating separation. Time and time again he’ll create space with a crisp route or a double move. He’s one of the smoothest route runners you’ll see in college, no doubt down to the fact he’s a senior and has had the time to work on his game.
He could end up being a surprise late first rounder like A.J. Jenkins and anyone who drafts him in round two is getting a bargain. I’m not sure what the Seahawks are looking for if they want to add another receiver, and it may be that they want that big bodied target who can be physical while still getting downfield. I’m getting to the point where I’d consider Wheaton in round one even if he doesn’t have elite size. You know what you’ll get with this guy. He might never be Calvin Johnson, but who is?
I’ve included tape of his performance against UCLA above, courtesy of JMPasq.
A month ago we had a look at some of the players to keep an eye on as the college season progressed. As we get closer to the finish line, it’s time for one final list.
1 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)
Huge potential and upside as an athletic outside linebacker in the NFL. He plays inside at Georgia but will likely switch to the WILL or SAM in a 4-3 at the next level. Minor character issues will concern some teams but Ogletree can do it all – pass rush, cover and read an offense.
2 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
He could move to offensive tackle and some teams will consider a Branden Albert-type switch. Cooper has elite pass protection skills and he pulls and gets to the second level better than any other guard in college. The best zone blocking lineman to enter the draft in a long time.
3 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
Road grader type who specialises in run blocking. He consistently turns opponents with great technique, opening big running lanes for the Alabama tailbacks. He’s not quite as athletic as Cooper but he’ll play left guard for 10+ years and be a regular All-Pro.
4 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
It’s hard to ignore some of the opponents he’s faced this year, such as the duo at LSU. The SEC is filled with productive pass rushers, yet Joeckel and book-end Jake Matthews have looked superb. In a league where left tackles are valued second only to quarterbacks, Joeckel could be a contender to go first overall. For tape of his performance against Alabama, see the video above.
5 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
Fantastic cornerback prospect who does it all. Milliner is physical enough to play up at the line and he’s terrific in run support. You need to have recovery speed, deep speed and an eye for the ball to be a top-level corner in the NFL and Milliner has the entire package.
6 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers)
No receiver in college football has Coleman’s level of upside. He doesn’t have the production of some other players, but he’s 6-6 and 220lbs with the speed to get downfield. He’s also a pure hands catcher who can be more consistent, but he’ll get there. If he declares he’ll be an early pick.
7 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M)
Moore has 12.5 sacks this year to lead the NCAA. This isn’t just a one-off great year either, he’s had a major impact in pretty much every win for Texas A&M. He’s capable of playing in any scheme and should be a top-five pick in April.
8 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
Notre Dame doesn’t have a lot of star players, but they have a great team capable of grinding out wins. Te’o has played such an integral part as the emotional leader of the group. It’s easy to forget he has six interceptions this year.
9 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
This has been a bitterly disappointing season for USC and Barkley. However, he still ranks as the best quarterback eligible for 2013. A team like Kansas City – which has a lot of weapons on offense and a not terrible line – could really use a quarterback who specialises in control, accuracy and production.
10 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
A recent team-imposed suspension is a concern as Richardson is an intense character who might turn off some GM’s and coaches. Even so, he’s such a dynamic player. 100% effort on every down, he never gives up on a play. Ideal three-technique.
11 Matt Elam (S, Florida)
Playmaking safety with the build and speed to be a perennial All-Pro. Not enough people are talking about Elam this season and what he’s done for the Gators. In a year where the safety class is pretty thin, expect Elam to make a big move up the boards if he turns pro.
12 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
You’ll struggle to find a better run blocking tight end in college. He showed against Oregon he can lead an offense as a receiver too, making over 100+ yards and scoring a key touchdown with 90 seconds to go. A lack of top-end receivers will put the focus on Ertz, making him a likely top-15 pick.
13 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
Will the speed translate to the next level? At 6-5 and 240lbs, he’ll need to prove at the combine he’s more Von Miller than Aaron Maybin. He’s had a good year despite only getting four sacks, but I think he needs to feature in the 3-4.
14 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
Nobody can deny how special this guy looks when he’s at his best. On any given snap, he can destroy a lineman to break into the backfield to make a splash play. Unfortunately, he’s just as capable of being dominated himself. Teams will love his upside, but not his inconsistency.
15 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
He’s looked like a proper defensive end this year. At 6-7 and 240lbs, he’s a good combine away from making a giant leap up the draft boards. Any team running a 3-4 scheme and needing a pass rusher who can drop into coverage will show a lot of interest here.
16 Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU)
Another athletic defensive lineman who could line up outside on standard downs and inside for passing situations. Ansah only has four sacks for the season but he’s looked better on tape. Like Jordan he’ll benefit from a strong combine.
17 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
He lost a lot of weight during the summer to try and max out his ability as a speed rusher, but I think he played better with the weight last year. Twelve months ago he looked like a J.J. Watt clone. That’s how much potential he has.
18 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
Impressive three-technique with the size to play every down. Williams flashes a great swim move and the ability to consistently make plays in the backfield. He’s played most of the year with a bad ankle, making his production even more impressive. He’ll turn 25 as a rookie next year and had some work ethic issues in high school and the JUCO ranks.
19 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
One of the more impressive individual performances you’ll see this year came when Thomas met South Carolina and Jadeveon Clowney. He flashed exactly why he could move back to tackle at the next level, showing great athleticism and power at the point of attack.
20 John Simon (DE, Ohio State)
He’s not a flashy player, but he just finds a way to have an impact. Blue collar pass rusher who had four sacks against Wisconsin on Saturday.
21 C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama)
Every week Mosley makes a big play. It could be an interception, a sack or just a jarring tone-setting tackle. He could line up at inside or outside linebacker and might be a top-20 pick.
22 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
It could be time to start considering Austin as a Percy Harvin type after all. On Saturday he rushed for 300+ yards against Oklahoma – from the tailback position. Austin has elite speed and the ability to score any time he gets the ball in space.
23 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
Very strong at the point of attack and looks comfortable at nose tackle. Williams could play the one, three or five technique. He also has the ability to develop into more of a pass rushing threat. You sense there’s more to come from this guy the more he plays the game. Australian born and still learning.
24 Jake Matthews (T, Texas A&M)
He’d be higher if it wasn’t for the fact he’s playing right tackle. Ideally you want to see him protect the blind side, but he’s done a good enough job against some top pass rushers to warrant a first round grade. For tape of his performance against Alabama, see the video at the top of this piece.
25 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia)
Explosive, amazing, stunning athlete. Yet being diagnosed with spinal stenosis is a concern and has to come into consideration. Some teams will strike him off the board completely. He might only play for 4-5 years.
26 Robert Woods (WR, USC)
He needs to land on a team that spreads the field out and uses a lot of 4WR sets. In Green Bay or New Orleans, he’ll be a terror running across the field. You can’t expect him to be a true #1, but he’ll excel in an air-raid attack.
27 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
Sturdy linebacker who plays with intensity and great range. He’ll go sideline-to-sideline effortlessly. He isn’t asked to do much pass rushing which is a slight knock, and his decision to quit Miami and return home makes you wonder if he’s adaptable.
28 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan)
I’ve only seen one game, but he’s an intriguing guy. Hasn’t played a lot of top-level opponents but ticks all the boxes as a potential blind side blocker. He could be a late first round pick, just like another former Central Michigan lineman – Joe Staley.
29 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
Nobody can argue this guy is a consistent receiver who will make a lot of solid catches. He’s a pure home run hitter, who will frustrate as much as he excites. Patterson is explosive though and will put cheap points on the board as a runner, receiver and kick returner.
30 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
Nose tackle prospect with massive size (340lbs+) and great mobility. If you’re a 3-4 team looking for a cornerstone, this is your guy. He’s a better overall prospect than Dontari Poe who went #11 overall last April.
31 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia)
He has a lot of the characteristics you look for in a franchise quarterback – decent technique, leader, arm strength. Unfortunately he also struggles to go through his progressions, forces passes and can be streaky.
32 Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan)
Just a solid, no-nonsense lineman in the mould of another former Wolverine Jake Long. He’s not close to the stature of Long, but teams needing a left or right tackle will look at Lewan in the first or second round.
33 Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State)
I like everything about this player. Wheaton isn’t the biggest receiver at 6-1, but he is tough to stop and is making a lot of plays for Oregon State this year. Off the field he’s a modest individual and that will appeal to teams trying to avoid the latest diva prospect at receiver.
34 Jonathan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
Started the season on fire but has regressed a little. He’s still a big, physical corner and that’s what the league is looking for right now.
35 Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio State)
Roby’s having a good year and he’s made some big plays. Teams have started to avoid him. He had a tremendous day against Nebraska with two big interceptions including a pick-six.
36 Shawn Williams (S, Georgia)
Williams could easily end up in round one. He called out the Georgia defense during a slump and it seems to have done the trick. Another good player on a talented Georgia team that could make the BCS Championship game.
37 Levine Toilolo (TE, Stanford)
He’s had some sloppy drops recently and he needs to be more consistent. At 6-8 you expect Toilolo to be dominant in the red zone, but Stanford are looking for Zach Ertz more than Toilolo.
38 Brennan Williams (T, North Carolina)
He’s still a bit raw and learning – Jonathan Cooper is constantly instructing him what to do pre-snap. But it’s hard to ignore his athletic skill-set and potential to protect the blind side.
39 Sam Montgomery (DE, LSU)
He’s not quite as impressive as Barkevious Mingo off the edge and I’m not convinced he can switch to linebacker.
40 Jonathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
He could be a top-15 pick if he wants to be. It’s that flash of brilliance you see every now and again which makes you wonder why he’s so underwhelming the rest of the time.
41 Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas)
This has been a chaotic year for the Razorbacks and Wilson has suffered as a consequence. He doesn’t have an ideal throwing motion and he’s made a lot of basic errors this year – but he’s a gun slinger with surprising athleticism.
42 Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
Everyone’s looking for the next Jimmy Graham and it could be this guy. He’s 6-6 and a pure pass-catcher who will create problems for linebackers in coverage. Don’t expect him to do much run blocking.
43 Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
Another player who has flattered to deceive at times this year. Like Hankins, he has the potential to be so much more. He can be brilliant. So why is there so much mediocre tape?
44 Keenan Allen (WR, California)
I’ve never once watched Allen and thought, “Wow… this guy is going to be great in the NFL.” It’s OK having the size and the pedigree (he was a top recruit and almost went to Alabama). I get that his quarterback situation isn’t ideal (although he chose Cal to play with that QB – his brother). The combine will be huge for Allen and he has to prove he has the upside a lot of people claim he possesses.
45 Montee Ball (RB, Wisconsin)
Without Russell Wilson keeping the offense honest, he’s had some tough games. Even so, a smart team will draft Montee Ball and get a few years of hard running and production.
46 Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia)
His effort at the second level could be better, but that’s a trait we’ve seen a lot with Virginia lineman over the years. In a man-blocking scheme he could be a useful tackle.
47 Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
He’s not looked completely comfortable this year. Whether he’ll ever be 100% again after a serious knee injury remains to be seen. I wouldn’t hang my hat on this guy as a #1 at the next level.
48 Giovani Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
For the first time at the weekend I appreciated the size concerns some people have with Bernard. He’s a good running back, but is he going to carry a heavy work load? I’m not convinced.
49 Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
Solid inside linebacker prospect. Hits hard and gets around the field. Doesn’t have great size but he’s sturdy enough to stay in the middle.
50 Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
I just don’t see a great deal of difference between Eifert and the last two big-name Notre Dame tight ends – Carlson and Rudolph. Which is why I have him in the same range as they were drafted. He’ll likely be a solid player at the next level.
Zach Ertz had a big day against Oregon, could be a top-15 pick
Note: I wrote an article for Field Gulls this week titled, ‘Seahawks draft focus: Potential 2013 targets’. Check it out by clicking here.
The first pass catcher off the board next year could be Stanford tight end Zach Ertz. He’s not a freak of nature like Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski or Vernon Davis. But at 6-6 and around 250lbs, he’s a big target and will make plays. Ertz is a terrific run blocker and made several key plays in Stanford’s big 17-14 win over Oregon. He consistently puts his body on the line to break big gains and teams can use him for any play call. He and fellow tight end Levine Toilolo regularly lined up as Stanford’s only receivers against the Ducks, including in the games biggest play for a Cardinal touchdown with 90 seconds to go. Quarterback Kevin Hogan threw a fade to the left and Ertz made an acrobatic catch in tight coverage.
Losing Andrew Luck to the NFL was an inevitable blow for Stanford, but one of the main reasons they’ve stayed competitive is due to guys like Ertz. He’s been a reliable pass catcher all year, recording 11 catches for 106 yards against the Ducks to take him to 747 yards for the year with six scores. If you’re the Miami Dolphins and looking to build around Ryan Tannehill, you have to consider this guy. There isn’t a can’t-miss receiver option early in round one, while some of the better offensive lineman might be off the board by the the time the Dolphins pick. With his ability to line up outside and as a key blocker, Ertz could be a top-15 choice next April.
The race to be the #1 overall pick remains wide open. The top three 2013 eligible quarterbacks all endured further difficulties this week. Matt Barkley picked up a shoulder injury, threw two more picks and suffered a fourth defeat of the season – this time to fierce rival UCLA. Geno Smith lost his fifth straight game against Oklahoma and also had two more interceptions. Tyler Wilson’s miserable season continued with a 45-14 beat down from Mississippi State, including… guess what? Two picks.
Barkley’s swansong is quickly becoming a nightmare. One or two defeats and a solid bowl game probably would’ve justified his return for a final year, even if it was below expectations. USC entered the year as the AP’s #1 ranked team. They’re drifting towards ending the season unranked. Notre Dame visit the Trojans next week knowing a victory gets them in the BCS Championship game. Barkley might not even play due to injury and no amount of school records will make up for this disappointing season. Lane Kiffin and his coaching staff have a lot to answer for – they’ve done a terrible job this year. The consequence is Barkley throwing more picks than even his freshman season, a bad defense and a team playing completely within itself.
Smith started the year on fire with five straight wins, throwing 24 touchdowns and no interceptions in the process. Since then? Five defeats, eleven touchdowns and five interceptions. He’s been streaky, showing a few concerning traits that cropped up last year too. He sometimes struggles to progress through reads, forcing passes into tight areas and trusting his arm too much. For such a mobile quarterback he’s not terribly elusive and doesn’t often extend plays. The nature of the offense at West Virginia is the same as Oklahoma State’s where Dana Holgorsen previously coached. With such a deep quarterback drop and a spread out field, Smith is essentially encouraged to throw for power rather than touch. He’s a hard working, legit NFL prospect. But is he a top pick who’s going to save a bad team?
Tyler Wilson is a gun slinger who takes chances. He’s surprisingly mobile and can make plays with his feet. However, he’s made a lot of bad decisions this year. A lot of this has to be blamed on the chaotic situation at Arkansas and there’s no doubting Wilson would’ve had a tighter season with Bobby Petrino staring down his neck from the sideline. However, this is the tape scouts have to look at. He’s only around 6-1/6-2 tall and has a very slingy release point which will cause some concern. At times there’s a little Jimmy Clausen to his throwing motion, although Wilson is a much more natural passer. Like Barkley he’s thrown twice as many interceptions this year than last. Scouts will also question his decision to slam his team mates following the Alabama defeat – a game he didn’t take part in due to injury. He got a little too emotional there.
With the three quarterbacks all struggling, there’s no automatic #1 pick this year. Barkley or Smith could take it if a team like Kansas City decides it needs to build around a new signal caller. The $22m guaranteed over four years is not terribly problematic and the high reward of finding a franchise quarterback makes it a worthwhile gamble. What about alternatives?
Damontre Moore could go first overall – he has 12.5 sacks for Texas A&M this year and looks every bit a top NFL pass rusher who can feature in any defensive scheme. Another Texas A&M prospect – Luke Joeckel – is the best pure offensive tackle in the class and is another option to go first overall. Jarvis Jones has the talent to be the #1 pick but being diagnosed with spinal stenosis will cause some concern to NFL teams. Star Lotulelei has the upside to warrant the pick but nowhere near the consistency. Barkevious Mingo at LSU could come into contention.
There’s no obvious candidate and it could filter all the way through round one. We could see a lot of early low-cost trades next April. And if a quarterback doesn’t go first overall, we could see the same again in 2014 when the likes of Jadeveon Clowney, Marqise Lee and Cyrus Kouandijo will be eligible to turn pro. It is still a quarterback league, though, so don’t be surprised if we see a guy like Barkley go first overall despite his disappointing senior year.
There isn’t a player in college football like Cordarrelle Patterson. On Saturday he took a punt 81 yards to the house – completing a quartet of ways to put points on the board. He now has nine total touchdowns for the year – four receiving, three rushing, one from a kick return and one from a punt return. At one point Patterson was bottled up and heading to the turf but somehow stayed on his feet, kept his balance, spun away from the tackle and managed to run it in for a score. He also led Tennessee in receiving yards (52 yards, three catches). You can see the touchdown by clicking here. He’s not the most polished receiver, but he’s a natural home run hitter who will consistently put cheap points on the board.
Tony Pauline speculated last week that Patterson wouldn’t declare for the 2013 draft. He also suggested quarterback Tyler Bray and fellow receiver Justin Hunter would turn pro. I think as a trio they should make a pact – all return or all declare. Tennessee fired coach Derek Dooley today, mainly because the team is 0-7 in the SEC. Learning a new system could have a detrimental impact on Patterson ahead of his final year in college, especially if he’s playing with a new untested quarterback. He might not be a ten-catch-a-game guy at the next level, but he’ll find creative ways to score touchdowns. For a team that’s good enough to justify drafting a flair player like this, Patterson will provide a dynamic weapon in the NFL.
North Carolina guard Jonathan Cooper was again superb against Virginia. Any zone blocking team in the NFL will have this guy right at the top of their draft board. Cooper shows unnatural athleticism for his size and positions and flashes really quality in pass protection. He pulls and gets to the second level better than any guard you’ll see in college. In fact he’s such an athlete we could see a move to tackle, similar to Branden Albert when he was drafted by Kansas City in 2008. Cooper and Chance Warmack are 1a and 1b when it comes to the best offensive lineman in this class. Either could leave the board first, but both shouldn’t get out of the top 10-15 picks.
Fellow Tar Heel Sylvester Williams deserves more attention than he gets. A lack of work ethic in high school and the JUCO ranks might put a few teams off, but nobody can deny how good he’s been for the Tar Heels. The light has switched on it seems and suddenly he looks like a dominating defensive tackle. He’s been playing with an injured ankle the last few weeks and was visibly struggling during the Virginia game. He’d got a lot of tape on the ankle and hobbled a bit after some plays. And yet he still dominated. It was a masterful performance, flashing an elite swim move to dodge blockers and break into the backfield. Williams had a big sack (you can see it by clicking here) and multiple tackles for a loss. Like Bruce Irvin he’ll turn 25 during his rookie season, but he has to be an option for the Seahawks as a possible every down three technique.
Brandon Coleman had a 41 yard reception for Rutgers against Cincinnati, in a squalid 10-3 victory. You can see the play by clicking here. It’s still presumed Coleman will be returning to Rutgers next year. He’s only a redshirt sophomore with 53 career catches. Yet in a draft without a receiver likely to go in the top fifteen picks, Coleman’s massive 6-6 frame and #1 potential could tempt him into turning pro. He finished with two catches for 49 yards against Cincy and has eight touchdowns on the year.
One final note – keep an eye on receiver Markus Wheaton at Oregon State. Teams will like his personality and attitude, plus his production this year has been excellent. He has ten touchdowns and 977 yards and could be a second round pick. He lacks elite size or speed and is listed at 6-1, 182lbs. However, a smart team with a good passing game will draft Wheaton and he’ll be a productive player. Not flashy, just productive.
