Could Arthur Brown be an option at #25?

It’s a subject we touched on in this weeks mock draft and also the conversation I had with the guys at Field Gulls. Are you more likely to take the ninth or tenth defensive lineman with the #25 pick? Or are you more likely to try and fill a different need?

There’s a lot of other teams needing to improve their pass rush. It’s a deep class for defensive tackles. There’s some quality at end and outside linebacker. If you’re a Seahawks fan hoping the team gets a first round pass rusher, you could be sat there mid-way through the first round having watched most of your preferred options leave the board.

If the plan is to go defensive line early, there will be a tipping point for the Seahawks in round one. Well, unless they’ve identified another guy nobody else is focusing on. You can never rule that out. It may even be probable. But there’s at least a chance there’s going to be better options at other positions by the #25 pick. Assuming that’s the case for the purpose of this article — what would you do?

You might disagree but for me the two other greatest needs are a big, athletic target at receiver/tight end a WILL linebacker to replace Leroy Hill. I’m not sure how many run-ins with the law Hill can afford before he starts getting lengthier suspensions. He’s 31 in September and while there’s still a chance he’ll return for another year in Seattle, his latest arrest could be a deal breaker. It also stands to reason that the Seahawks will try to get faster at the WILL — speed within the front seven remains a key feature for this team.

Inevitably Seattle’s group of receivers and tight ends looked a lot better as Russell Wilson grew into his rookie season. Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and Zach Miller were all productive, it just seems all three hit their peaks at different times. Doug Baldwin’s year was severely hampered by a lingering pre-season injury. Look for him to bounce back in 2013.

I think there’s room for at least another target. Why else were they looking at Terrell Owens in pre-season? Or trying to rekindle Braylon Edwards’ career? Why did they trade for Kellen Winslow? There’s a hole in that roster for a big, athletic target. Whether’s it’s a tight end who can play a little receiver, create mismatches and exploit coverage or a receiver who wins 1v1 battles, goes up to claim the ball and compliments Rice and Tate — it’s a need.

While the options at defensive tackle or end might be limited by #25, it could be a good range to look at pass catchers and linebackers. When the first receiver leaves the board, we could see a domino effect. The first might not go until the 20’s. By the time Seattle’s second round pick comes around, five or six could be gone. Getting the pick of a pretty good bunch in round one is enticing.

It’s unlikely prospective top-15 pick Alec Ogletree will be around (shame) but he might be the only 4-3 outside linebacker prospect off the board early. Arthur Brown and Khaseem Greene stand to be of interest to Seattle. Both are athletic, instinctive players who can get sideline to sideline. Greene is stockier and a better blitzer with safety speed, while Brown is smaller and more agile.

All of the tight ends could be on the board. While Anthony McCoy did a good job as the #2 tight end, the Seahawks could still look for a hybrid type who can line up in the slot, out wide and at the line of scrimmage. Zach Ertz featured all over the field as Stanford’s leading receiver but also worked within a run-heavy offense that utilised a lot of two tight end sets. I still think he’d be an ideal weapon for this team. He’s also the most likely tight end to go before the #25 pick.

Gavin Escobar has great size but didn’t do a great deal of blocking for San Diego State — he could develop into a real difference maker as a receiver. Tyler Eifert is more of an orthodox tight end in terms of frame but his blocking is seriously hit and miss. Jordan Reed is gaining momentum as a joker-style receiver and could be one of the stand-out performers at the combine.

Of the highlighted needs, the WILL could be the biggest ‘must fill’ need. If Hill isn’t re-signed they’ll have to do something. At the same time, is it possible Brown or Greene could be available in round two? It’s not unrealistic. Could you even consider trading down if that’s your target, given they’re unlikely to be snapped up by any of the teams picking right after Seattle? Carroll and Schneider have also done a good job filling linebacker needs later in the draft — Bobby Wagner was drafted in round two, K.J. Wright was a fourth round pick. Malcolm Smith may get the chance to replace Hill and he was a seventh round choice.

The receivers and tight ends might have the biggest impact early. Russell Wilson developed into a big-time playmaker as the 2012 season progressed. Keeping him stocked up with a strong arsenal is key. He deserves as much help as possible. Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and Doug Baldin have all suffered their fair share of injuries. There’s not a great deal of depth out there and a bit like the cornerback position — you can never have too many good pass catchers. Aaron Rodgers is a fantastic quarterback, but he also benefits greatly from a loaded receiving corps. The Packers know who their superstar is. Wilson will only get better the more targets he has to aim at.

On the other hand, none of Rodgers’ receivers or tight ends were drafted in round one. Green Bay has a history of success targeting those positions in round two. And the depth at receiver in this class means the Seahawks could get a good one at #55.

So what direction do you go if defensive line quickly becomes an unattractive option at #25? Maybe you have a different suggestion? Below you’ll find tape of the guys highlighted in this piece.

He’s probably the most talked about draft prospect, and he’s the player I get the most emails about. It seems every NFL fan, whichever team you follow, is wondering whether they’ll take a chance on Tyrann Mathieu.

In 2011 he recorded 71 tackles, 1.5 sacks, five forced fumbles (two returned for touchdowns) and two interceptions. He had two further scores via punt returns. Mathieu was the very definition of a game changing playmaker. That’s not easy for a 5-9, 180lbs cornerback.

Beneath all the stats and game changing ability lay a fierce competitor. There’s no real secret to Mathieu’s success — he plays the game his way. With attitude, style and ferocity. He takes superb angles when challenging for the ball, he’s quicker than fast covering space and he’s instinctive. He can be a walking highlight reel.

That enamoured him to the TV cameras, while the ‘Honey Badger’ nickname he inherited became increasingly over-used as announcers began to mention it every time LSU’s defense was on the field. The attention worked and he was a Heisman finalist — losing out to Robert Griffin III.

The fact he had become the face of LSU’s football program perhaps masked some of the glaring issues within his game. What is he at the next level? His back pedal simply isn’t good enough to warrant serious consideration as a natural corner. Size is a major concern against the bigger receivers in the NFL. You can throw in behind Mathieu because he struggles to locate the ball when it’s not played in front. His balance is surprisingly poor given he’s compact and short. I don’t like his footwork at all.

He’s going to be a nickel corner with limited responsibilities. I understand why that makes him intriguing to Seahawks fans because the position caused a lot of problems in 2012. However… how could you possibly trust this guy at the next level?

Mathieu’s career was on life support when the Tigers basically kicked him off the team for ‘violating of team policy’ (aka, drug use) prior to the 2012 season. Rather than transfer to a small school like Janoris Jenkins, Mathieu wanted to wait it out. See if he can repair the damage at LSU and play football again in 2014. He promised to seek help and learn from his mistakes.

This had been a pretty serious issue for Mathieu previously. He’d already served a one-game ban for violating the teams drug policy. He ignored that warning before finally being dismissed Les Miles.

Time for the wake up call, Mr. Mathieu.

In August he entered a drug rehabilitation program in Houston. So far so good. He was saying the right things, he was getting support from his family. He made all sorts of vows and promises to learn from his mistakes. Could he get his career back on track? Remember, it’s hanging by a thread. Then on October 25th, he and three other LSU players were arrested for possession of marijuana. Here we go again.

Ask yourself this… at what point does a player become too much of a liability? If he’s prepared to keep ignoring warnings, continues to make the same mistakes — don’t you have to sit up and take notice? LSU were pretty emphatic when they’d had enough. Now you’re going to pay him and potentially move him to a state where Marijuana was recently legalised? I’m not sure about that.

I think he’ll ultimately prove to be the kind of player you let somebody else worry about. Let another team take a shot. Is it really worth disrupting the harmony in your dressing room, adding a bad influence and a guy who hasn’t shown he can stay away from drugs all for the sake of a nickel corner? Not for me.

There are teams in the league — such as the Cincinnati Bengals — who appear to thrive on taking little gambles like this. Vontaze Burfict is a great example and he had a terrific rookie season. But that doesn’t mean Mathieu can also perform well and stay away from trouble.

He’s doing all the right things — he visited the Senior Bowl in Mobile as part of a full-court press on the leagues reps attending the event. He managed to secure a place at the combine. He’s going to have to work extremely hard to get a team to trust him whatever he does. He has to prove he’s a changed man.

Is the upside great enough to warrant a pick on the first two days of the draft? I’d argue not. He might fall to day three (rounds 4-7). Like Burfict he might be an UDFA.

Personally I’d need to be extremely convinced he was over his drug problems to even consider taking a shot. Completely over them too this time, not over for two months. It’s not even so much him I’d be concerned about, it’s that he might drag others down with him. The Seahawks like a challenge as much as anyone — but they haven’t been reckless in selecting their players. Mathieu would be a much bigger gamble than trading for Marshawn Lynch, drafting Bruce Irvin or giving a trial to Terrell Owens.

For the sake of a decent nickel corner, I’d probably just look elsewhere. Remember this — there’s a reason Les Miles dismissed a star player and a Heisman finalist. And it’s not because he’s the ‘mad hatter’.

John Schneider and Pete Carroll didn’t rate the 2012 class of pass-catchers, ignoring the group completely. Instead they tried out Terrell Owens, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. Edwards lasted a little while on the active roster before getting cut. Owens and Winslow didn’t make it out of camp.

I guess it was worth a try?

Of course they also made other moves — Jermaine Kearse ended the year on the active roster and Charly Martin saw snaps early in the season. Yet the amount of work put into this position — not to mention the turnover — suggests the Seahawks weren’t completely satisfied. Some form of draft (or free agent) investment seems likely.

So what are they looking for?

One of the first things Carroll did in Seattle was to invite Brandon Marshall on a sea-plane for a weekend’s visit. Marshall was a restricted free agent and could’ve been signed for a first round pick (Seattle had two in 2010). The Seahawks clearly didn’t think much of the price tag and probably hoped to get a deal done for their high pick in round two — #40 overall. Marshall eventually went to Miami for a pair of second rounders, while the Seahawks used their second round pick in the Charlie Whitehurst trade instead.

There were some rumours about interest in Vincent Jackson during his hold out in San Diego, although no offer was forthcoming when he eventually hit free agency last year. The Seahawks got two seasons out of Mike Williams, one more successful than the other. All three players have one thing in common — size.

Owens (6-3, 224lbs), Winslow (6-4, 240lbs) and Edwards (6-3, 215lbs) are all big targets. And it’s a hole the Seahawks never really filled. Despite spending big money on Sidney Rice (6-4, 205lbs) — he’s more tall and lean than physical.

Seattle’s options at receiver seemed to look brighter every week with Russell Wilson growing into a franchise quarterback. By the end of the season, Rice, Golden Tate, Zach Miller and Doug Baldwin were featuring regularly. Anthony McCoy got a lot of focus in certain games where he was a bigger feature in the gameplan. Wilson was spreading it around nicely.

Yet despite all of that, you can’t help but watch him throwing to Larry Fitzgerald and Vincent Jackson in the Pro Bowl and just wish he had that big bodied, physical receiver for the redzone. It’s the only thing missing within a balanced and talented offense. They’ve got speed, power, a good offensive line and a tight end playing as well as any in the league at the end of the season.

You’re not going to find another Fitzgerald in the draft any time soon, perhaps not even for a generation. Jackson has also proven to be one of the more productive receivers in the NFL. But that doesn’t mean the Seahawks can’t still find their own version.

Is a big target more likely than some of the other wide-out options available in this class? Someone who will consistently win in single coverage? Someone who can move despite playing above 6-0? A difference maker on the field because he’s difficult to match-up against, you need height, strength and power to combat his skill set? A player with strong hands who can act as a safety net?

I could spend every day until April telling you how good Robert Woods, Markus Wheaton and DeAndre Hopkins are. All three share similar characteristics when it comes to attitude, competitive nature and an ability to make big plays. Woods and Wheaton have speed and agility, Hopkins is Mr. Consistent. I could write an article tomorrow saying why all three would be great picks for Seattle.

At the same time, are they going to improve Seattle’s receiving group substantially to warrant the high investment? Do they bring a different skill set to the table?

Wheaton and Woods aren’t going to win many battles against big, physical corners. You’ll have to manufacture their production slightly, using a lot of WR screens, bubble screens and shorter routes. You’re looking to get them the ball in space, set up blockers. You’ll try deep shots but it’s very difficult to run in behind a modern NFL secondary, so can they compete in the air if they have to come back for the ball? Golden Tate has shown he can do that despite his size. He’s also a playmaker with the ball in space. Do the Seahawks necessarily need another?

Hopkins has superb hands and body control, but he could do with adding some size. Roddy White is around 10lbs heavier than Hopkins. If he can get bigger without it impacting his mobility and speed, then he could be great. Whether he can have an impact at his current size remains to be seen. Sidney Rice has some of the characteristics you see in Hopkins, although Rice is three or four inches taller and he’s faster. Hopkins could be a route runner at the next level and he finds ways to get open. He’d be a reliable target for Russell Wilson, but is he crying out for reliability? Apart from the game at San Francisco, Seattle’s receivers were pretty consistent catching the ball in 2012.

There aren’t many big targets available in this draft class unless you look at the tight ends, but there is one player who could be of some interest. I’m not a big fan — as noted in this article back in November. He’s 6-2 and around 210lbs. He plays with a competitive edge. He will go up to get the football. He has strong hand and looks like a solid possession receiver with some athletic qualities. And he could offer another dimension to the passing offense.

For the last few weeks I’ve been grading Keenan Allen as a second round pick. I still think he probably will be a second round pick, but you look around the internet at the ‘high profile’ draft personalities and a lot of them rank Allen among the top juniors. Only this week Scott Pioli listed him among his favourite underclassmen this year.

Undoubtedly Allen suffered due to poor quarterback play at California (although it was his decision to play with his brother, he had plenty of alternative options). He’s an athletic player who could’ve gone to play safety for Nick Saban in Alabama. He’s extremely competitive and with a competent NFL signal caller we might see his best football at the next level.

However, a lack of elite speed (he was only running a 4.57 in high school and has since added weight), injury concerns that ended his season prematurely and needs elsewhere could push him down the board. I think round two, others think high first round. It could end up being somewhere in the middle — as in the late first.

The Cal quarterback Zach Maynard is so limited as a downfield passer, we rarely got to see Allen tested on deeper routes or competing in the air. Cal essentially had Allen run a lot of shorter, inside routes almost always coming back to the quarterback. When Maynard was asked to throw deep, he really struggled for accuracy and velocity. In the video above you see him missing Allen downfield against USC, unchallenged when he was wide open. We might not get a full appreciation of Allen’s potential until he takes the field as a pro.

There’s a good chance the Seahawks will wait until later in the draft to add a receiver, particularly given the needs on defense with the pass rush. I still wanted to throw Allen’s name out there tonight. I don’t think it would’ve gone unnoticed how good Wilson looked throwing to those big targets in the redzone in Hawaii. If they want to add a different type of receiver to this roster, then Allen could be one to monitor. Personally, I’d wait to see if he lasts until round two.

Penn State's Jordan Hill could be a mid-round sleeper

Scott Pioli ranks the underclassmen

Either Daniel Jeremiah knows Scott Pioli, or we’ve just had validation that Sharrif Floyd could be a top ten pick. Jeremiah tweeted last week that an NFL executive had guaranteed Floyd would be drafted early. Yesterday Peter King interviewed Pioli and managed to get his top ten underclassmen. There were a few surprises. Here’s the list in order:

1. Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
2. Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
3. Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
4. Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
5. Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
6. Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
7. Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia)
8. Keenan Allen (WR, California)
9. Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)
10. Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)

No Damontre Moore or Sheldon Richardson. It’s an interesting list, but perhaps focused towards the 3-4 defense Pioli was scouting for before he got fired. Floyd would make a fine five technique while Johnathan Hankins is a classic space eater who takes up blocks but offers very little pass rush. Bjoern Werner and Jarvis Jones are capable of rushing the edge in the 3-4, in fact Werner could play end or outside linebacker. Sheldon Richardson looks like an ideal fit for 4-3 and you have to believe it’s the main reason he isn’t part of the list. But maybe we have to start considering Floyd — with his massive upside — as the #1 defensive tackle in this class?

For the offense it’s a surprise to see Eddie Lacy that high but there’s every reason to believe he will be an effective running back at the next level. All being well he should be the first runner off the board. Pioli took Jonathan Baldwin in round one so it’s not too surprising to see he ranks Keenan Allen highly. Personally I think, like Baldwin, he’s only worth a second or third round grade. Gavin Escobar ranked as the top tight end above Zach Ertz and Tyler Eifert is a big headline, but even more striking is that he’s in the top ten at all. He’s a thoroughly modern tight end — big, fast, gets downfield. He offers no blocking qualities but he’ll be a pass catching force. There’s every chance he could work his way into the first or early second round.

We’ve talked a lot about how unpredictable this draft is going to be and Pioli’s list is another great example of that. Last week Desmond Trufant was an expected third round pick. Tony Pauline quoted league sources that he’d be a first round lock. Now several other members of the media are falling over themselves trying to claim they knew all along. It was a surprise, there was a tone of surprise in Pauline’s Tweet. It was just the latest chapter in a story that’s going to keep us guessing right up to April 25th. This will be the hardest draft in years to call.

Whatever your view of the players listed or Pioli as a talent evaluator, it’s a great insight into how teams might be looking at this draft class. And it might indicate while the likes of Dee Milliner and Sharrif Floyd are unlikely options for the Seahawks at #25, maybe it isn’t completely impossible after all that a player like Sheldon Richardson or Zach Ertz comes into range?

Who is Courtney Gardner?

Apparently he’s one of the biggest draft sleepers in the 2013 class.

Again I refer to Tony Pauline — the quintessential draft insider — had this to say about Gardner today on his blog:

“The name making the rounds in the scouting community as one of the biggest sleepers at the receiver position is Courtney Gardner of Sierra College.  The 6-foot, 3-inch/220lb pass catcher was expected to play for Oklahoma in 2013 but opted for the NFL draft after academic “difficulties”.  We hear scouts have been raving about the physical skills Gardner brings to the field.  Besides his large frame the big pass catcher also has the speed (10.7 sec in the 100 meters) to match.  Even college coaches in the area are awed by his ability on the field but focusing at the task at hand seems to be an issue.”

I managed to find the video below for some highlight footage. The quality is awful, but it gives you an idea of his on-field talent. His stock will be pretty limited given he never even left the JUCO ranks, but he might be one to keep an eye on. Meanwhile Pauline also had some pretty interesting information on Ziggy Ansah: “We are now hearing Ansah is a definite mid-first round choice and should be selected anywhere between picks 14-to-18.”

I don’t like Wednesday’s

Wednesday is mock draft day on Seahawks Draft Blog — and I want to keep pumping out different scenarios. I wouldn’t ever try to fool anyone into thinking my mocks are any great insight into what will actually happen. I just want to create debate, present options and see how this thing shakes out. If I did the same prediction every week, I’d be trying to tell you I knew what was going to happen. And nobody knows that. So we’ll keep coming up with different ideas.

The problem is, the draft this year is pretty confusing. It just looks so wide open. My suspicion is that the Seahawks are going to have an unexpected player fall into their direction. Maybe more than one. And if that happens, they still might pick a guy like Khaseem Greene anyway and get another D grade from Mel Kiper. It could be one of those drafts. Again.

There’s a clear need to add a pass rusher or two — will the first round of the draft fill that need? We could see 7-8 defensive lineman leave the board before the #25 pick. Maybe more. So unless they trade up or turn to free agency, the Seahawks could be picking through the remains of a defensive line carcass. So what is the second or third options? A receiver? Tight end? Linebacker?

Every now and again little pieces of information come out — such as the sudden league-wide interest in Sharrif Floyd or Desmond Trufant. You peel back the layers and learn more. But even then, you’re really only scratching the surface.

Whatever happens the Seahawks are going to get a good player at #25. This is a better draft class than maybe most people expected going into the new college season. The hard part is working out what the Seahawks — a team that appears to take pride in thinking outside of the box — is going to do next.

We’ll have another go tomorrow.

Jordan Hill could be one to watch

The three technique position is difficult to judge. If you look over the last few years, so many players have been drafted in round one and it hasn’t worked out for whatever reason. And then you have Geno Atkins — the best three technique in the league — going in round four of the draft. Henry Melton was also a fourth round pick. Darnell Dockett went in round three. So there’s no exact science to finding that elusive interior pass rusher.

The Seahawks can’t be too cute given their extreme need at the position. The roster has developed quicker than anyone expected and finding a pass rush this off-season could be the difference between being winners or merely contenders in 2013.

Having said that, you can’t force the issue. And picking 25th overall makes it difficult to say, “we’ll solve this problem in round one of the draft’. They might have to look seriously at free agency and get the cheque book out. Or they might have to search for that next mid-round steal. If they can find a franchise quarterback in round three, why not a good, pass-rushing defensive tackle?

Out of all the players I’ve looked at so far, Penn State’s Jordan Hill is one of the players to keep an eye on in those mid-to-late rounds.

So what does he do well?

He’s 6-0 and 295lbs and plays with good leverage. If he gets a sniff of a gap he often takes advantage, using his speed to get into the backfield. In a 1v1 match-up he holds his own in the run game, holding his position with surprising power at the point of attack even against top offensive line opposition such as Wisconsin.

Hill’s a fighter — a relentless bundle of energy who defined his teams attitude last season. He chases outside of the tackle box, doesn’t give up on plays and often executes via the second effort. In the Senior Bowl he struggled a bit to generate pressure against a double team, but it was testament that the lineman even in that environment were consistently locking onto him and trying to shut him down. Although he didn’t challenge the quarterback against the double team, he more than held his own and managed to hold position. The Seahawks don’t have enough players on that defensive line right now that warrant a double team.

He doesn’t flash a great bull rush and he could do a better job finishing — his closing burst is average and when he gets into the backfield sometimes, he pressures rather than finishes. His hand use is adequate but not exactly aggressive, while sometimes he takes too long to shed blocks. On the other hand he’s shown an effective lunge to avoid contact, a nice swim move and he’s agile enough to beat a man with a quick first step and break free.

There’s very little injury concern here and he’s an exemplary character off the field. At a time when Penn State needed warriors, Hill stepped up to the mark.

I don’t expect him to be the next great pass rushing three technique. It’s one of the most difficult positions to grade. Take away the sheer importance of the quarterback position and projecting three techniques might be the hardest thing to do in the draft. There really does seem to be a ‘born to do it’ type aspect to it. Even a guy like Gerald McCoy — who looked like the most perfect three technique you’ll find — hasn’t played up to the extreme quality he showed at Oklahoma. You kind of need to be made a little differently. Be edgy.

Hill might be restricted to a nickel role at the next level, working on passing downs and using his agility to create pressure. Even so, I’d still consider taking a shot on the guy. He’s a baller and the type that might just surprise you at the next level. If he can try and get a little stronger in the upper body and work on his closing speed, there’s no reason why he can’t find a home in the NFL and feature on early downs.

Note – He wears #47 in the Penn State videos below and #97 in the Senior Bowl tape

Sheldon Richardson will leave the board quickly in round one

Sheldon Richardson, Star Lotulelei, Sharrif Floyd, Kawann Short, Sylvester Williams.

Five defensive tackles, all of which could be on Seattle’s radar with the #25 pick — especially if they’re unable to address this need in free agency. But how likely is it they’ll be available? Which are the teams capable of making life difficult for the Seahawks?

Jacksonville Jaguars

It seems like Jacksonville’s pass rush has been terrible for a long time, but it has to be Gus Bradley’s first port of call as he improves this team. A big trade up for Derrick Harvey in 2008 didn’t solve the problem. They claimed Jason Babin towards the end of the season but he turns 33 in May. Rookie Andre Branch didn’t feature much in 2012 and had just one sack. They need a pass rusher. The question is — do they look at the interior rushers (Richardson, Lotulelei, Floyd) at #2 or do they target an edge rusher like Bjoern Werner or Damontre Moore? Improving the edge is a greater need, but the interior talent might be superior.

Oakland Raiders

One of the few strengths Oakland had in 2012 was the defensive line, particular at tackle. Desmond Bryant developed into an effective force while much maligned Richard Seymour did a better job than most are willing to give him credit for. The problem is, both are free agents in 2013 and the Raiders are $4.5m over the salary cap. If they manage to keep Bryant they have the option of moving the talented Lamarr Houston inside and letting Seymour walk. In that scenario, they’ll almost certainly target edge rushers, a quarterback or a left tackle. If they lose both Bryant and Seymour, it increases the chances they’ll consider drafting one of Lotulelei, Richardson or Floyd.

Philadelphia Eagles

Chip Kelly appears set to switch to a 3-4 defense and it opens up the possibility of looking at the defensive line. If Luke Joeckel goes before the #4 pick, the Eagles could go in a number of directions. They could draft a quarterback. They could draft another left tackle, such as Eric Fisher (much depends on the health of Jason Peters). They could draft a much needed cornerback like Dee Milliner. Or they can anchor the 3-4 by going big up front. They don’t have an obvious nose tackle on the roster and could also use some help at the five technique. Lotulelei is more than capable of manning the nose at 325lbs and his excellence against the run makes this a great fit. Richardson and Floyd can both play 3-4 defensive end.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans ranked ninth for sacks and have bigger needs, but they don’t have a great defensive tackle. It really depends what they want to get out of the draft because at the moment they’re drifting into obscurity. They fired Mike Reinfeldt as vice-president but kept the man he appointed to be GM (Ruston Webster). They’re bringing in disgraced defensive coach Gregg Williams to support likely lame duck Mike Munchak. Surely they need an impact player? That could lead them to the tackle class. Chance Warmack plus any of the defensive ends or cornerbacks should also be an option. This could go either way, but ultimately there are people trying to keep their jobs in Tennessee. So which position will provide the greatest return in 2013?

Miami Dolphins

Randy Starks and Paul Soliai created one of the more dynamic defensive tackle tandem’s in the NFL in 2012. The only problem is, Starks is a free agent. There will be greater priorities for the Dolphins — Jake Long is a free agent and appears set to leave Miami, getting better receivers for Ryan Tannehill is crucial and improving the secondary is also important. This will really depend on who’s left on the board at #12. There’s every chance Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher are gone by the time Miami picks, so do they take Lane Johnson? Do they draft a receiver here or wait until round two where they have a couple of picks? If Starks leaves and one or more of Lotulelei, Richardson and Floyd remain on the board, they could come into play.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have two big needs — cornerback and defensive tackle. There’s a lot of talk about Desmond Trufant and Xavier Rhodes being first round picks and teams do love to draft corners in round one. Dee Milliner will be off the board by the 14th pick. With all due respect to Trufant and Rhodes, they’d have to see corner as a pretty significant need to pass on one of the defensive tackles. Expect one to leave the board with this pick.

New Orleans

In reaction to sporting the worst total defense in the NFL last year, Sean Payton is switching to the 3-4. Defensive tackle was a need for the Saints anyway, but it becomes even more crucial now that they’re switching schemes. No — they don’t have any obvious candidates to play OLB and get to the quarterback. But they also lack an obvious nose tackle. That’s usually the starting point for any team switching to the 3-4. This pick shouldn’t impact the Seahawks too much given Lotulelei will likely be off the board at this time, meaning the Saints will either draft a big body like Jonathan Jenkins or Johnathan Hankins — or they’ll take an edge rusher instead.

Dallas Cowboys

Dallas going tackle is more likely following the addition of Monte Kiffin, the switch to a 4-3 scheme and the recent arrest of Jay Ratliff. It’ll come down to Jerry Jones’ faith in Kiffin to work with what he’s got. The interior offensive line needs rebuilding and should be a bigger priority for the Cowboys, but the dramatic scheme-switch is a curve ball. They could draft a power end to play across fro DeMarcus Ware (Ziggy Ansah?) or they could draft a pure three-technique to provide interior penetration. It’s worth noting Kiffin came very close to recruiting Sheldon Richardson to play for USC. Richardson played JUCO football in California and almost switched his commitment from Missouri to the Trojans. He cited Kiffin’s influence as the reason he almost made the change.

Minnesota Vikings

Kevin Williams turns 33 in August and the final bricks in the ‘Williams Wall’ are starting to crumble and break away. The Vikings are unlikely to prioritise defensive tackle in round one, especially with bigger needs at receiver, linebacker, cornerback and guard. The concern will be Minnesota picks right before the Seahawks and if one of the upper-tier tackles does suffer a slight drop, they could steal in for value purposes. However, they could have their choice of the receiver class and if Jonathan Cooper slips to #24, the Vikings would be wise to pair him with Matt Kalil on the left side of the offensive line.

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When you see reports suggesting Sharrif Floyd could be a top-ten pick, you start to wonder if NFL scouts and GM’s view the likes of Loutlelei, Richardson and Floyd as superior to the edge rushers and other defensive players in the draft. If they’re rated near the top of most boards, you could see all three go in the top 10-15. It wouldn’t be a ridiculous proposition.

In 2011 the Seahawks benefited from the first offensive tackle (Tyron Smith) not leaving the board until the ninth overall pick. The second (Nate Solder) was the #17 pick. Danny Watkins was drafted two places before the Seahawks took James Carpenter. A rush on the position early could’ve put Seattle’s front office in a position where they had to look elsewhere. Carpenter could’ve been the ‘tipping point’ in terms of drafting an offensive tackle in round one.

I listed nine teams above and name-checked five tackles. If Seattle wants to address this position they’ll probably get the opportunity to do so. It’s a stretch to think Lotulelei, Richardson and Floyd will make it through all nine, however. Not impossible, just unlikely.

Seahawks fans need to hope other teams prioritise quarterbacks and offensive tackles — as has been the case in the past. Whatever anyone says about this quarterback class, the new CBA makes it much less of a gamble taking a chance to find a franchise signal caller. Every team picking in the top ten except Detroit has a question mark at quarterback. In 2012 Justin Blackmon, the #5 pick, signed a contract worth $18.5m over four years. The #10 pick Stephon Gilmore agreed a deal worth $12.1m over four years. Compare that to the #5 pick in 2010, Eric Berry, who’s deal was worth $60m over six years, or the #10 pick Tyson Alualu who signed a $28m contract.

Teams picking in the top ten these days can take more risks. In a year without obvious top-end talent, there’s a chance we’ll see multiple teams reaching for quarterbacks. Seven of the top ten are also breaking in new Head Coaches or GM’s. Will they be looking for ‘their guy’? Do players like Matt Barkley, Geno Smith, Mike Glennon and Tyler Wilson become more attractive on contracts worth around $12-20m?

In that scenario you could be looking at the first defensive tackle leaving the board as late as #14 to Carolina. That’s the best case scenario for Seattle. It’s also probably wishful thinking. Yet there’s enough uncertainty surrounding the early picks that pretty much anything could happen — a rush on quarterbacks, defensive tackles, defensive ends, offensive lineman. This years draft more than any other is going to be completely unpredictable. And it wouldn’t surprise me if a number of unexpected players make it into the 20’s.

I’m going to do a bigger piece on Kawann Short tomorrow. He might be Seattle’s best bet if they want to draft a three-technique with the #25 overall pick. One thing I noticed today though — Short will be 24 in February. Star Lotulelei will also turn 24 during his rookie season, while Sylvester Williams will be 25. On the other hand Sharrif Floyd doesn’t turn 21 until late May. Sheldon Richardson’s birthdate is unknown but he graduated from high school in 2009. That’s quite a difference and I wonder if age will impact how teams approach this group.