We’re counting up to the #12 pick where we’ll extend the options and open up the debate for Seattle. 82% of the votes sent Justin Blackmon to the Rams, well clear of second placed Riley Reiff (9%). Whatever combination occurs in the top six, there’s unlikely to be too many surprises. Things become a little less obvious from #7 onwards.

The Jaguars are difficult to figure out. GM Gene Smith received a new contract and appeared to be receiving the backing of the team’s new owner, yet rumours persist that Smith may leave after the draft. Shahid Khan instructed his staff to negotiate with Denver for Tim Tebow, a move instigated purely by ownership. Just twelve months after trading up for Blaine Gabbert, there is no way Smith had any desire to trade for Tebow. So who’s making the decisions here?

If it’s Smith, expect one of two things. Either he’ll take someone to support his investment in Gabbert (receiver or offensive tackle), or a high motor defensive lineman to improve the team’s pass rush. If it’s Khan, he’ll probably look for the flashiest player who can help sell tickets. The move for Tebow screamed ticket sales, pure and simple.

There may be a happy medium – drafting a receiver to aid Gabbert, while getting a player who will help sell tickets. Justin Blackmon would be ideal but he’s off the board at #6. Swapping places with Tampa Bay or Cleveland is a possibility, but we’re not projecting trades in this mock. Michael Floyd is the next man in line, but will Smith buy into the character issues that have dogged the talented receiver at Notre Dame?

There are Smith and Khan picks on the defense too. Smith may prefer the solid, high motor types in Courtney Upshaw and Melvin Ingram. Khan may prefer the eye-popping physical potential of Quinton Coples. So who’s the pick?

(polls)

An option in rounds 2/3 for Seattle?

Morris Claiborne is headed to Tampa Bay after receiving 86% of the votes for the #5 pick. Justin Blackmon was a distant second with 6%. So far the draft is going according to general thinking, with the top five looking like this:

#1 Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)

#2 Washington Redskins – Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)

#3 Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil (OT, USC)

#4 Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)

#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU)

Let’s move on to St. Louis at #6…

With Justin Blackmon still on the board, most people would expect the Rams to draft the Oklahoma State wide receiver. I still believe it’s quite high for a player not comparable to AJ Green or Julio Jones in terms of physical potential, but Sam Bradford needs a legitimate target. Blackmon has a lot of body control and enjoyed mass-production in college. He’ll tend to have one ugly mistake per game, but he’s also very competitive with that ‘alpha male’ streak you want in a top receiver.

With two picks early in round two, the Rams need to weigh up whether they can still find a top receiver later on. Of the other options listed here, no others scream better value than Blackmon. Expect the Rams to contemplate further trade options to accumulate more picks ahead of a major rebuild.

If they don’t move down and just aren’t interested in Blackmon, Jeff Fisher could look to bolster both lines. They need an interior defensive line presence to compliment the edge rushers they’ve drafted in recent years. Dontari Poe could be asked to lose weight to fit into a three-technique role in the NFL – it might actually be his best position. I prefer Fletcher Cox as a pure 3-4 end, but he could still receive interest in the 4-3. Riley Reiff is the best tackle left on the board and would provide a book-end for Roger Saffold. Right tackle at #6? Seems a bit of a luxury, but Fisher always had great offensive lines in Tennessee.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Rundown: Nicknamed “The Hammer” for his bone crushing hits, Ronnell Lewis was a junior year defensive end for Oklahoma.  He is a projected outside linebacker in the NFL.

Age: 21  (September 17, 1990)

Height:  6’2″

Weight:  253

40 time:  4.69

10 yard split:  1.61

3 cone:  7.09

Vertical Jump:  31″

Compilation Videos:

vs. Texas

vs. Florida St.

Positives:

• Big
• Fast for his size
• Powerful
• High football IQ, reads plays well and has a nose for the ball
• Doesn’t give up on plays
• High motor
• Sub-elite edge rush ability
• Big time special teams contributor
• Hard hitter
• Great tackler

Negatives:

• Tweener label
• Essentially no experience at LB
• Coverage ability is an unknown

Ronnell Lewis is a first round talent who could take quite a tumble on draft day, all for one innocent and unfortunate problem: his coaches played him at the wrong position in college.  Lewis played defensive end at Oklahoma, but he physically resembles a stud SAM linebacker.  Watching Lewis I was quickly reminded of scouting Aaron Curry three years ago.  Lewis has a big frame and looks like Aaron Curry physically (both are 6’2″ and Curry is just a pound heavier).  Lewis is not quite the freak athlete that Curry was, but he’s an above average athlete especially for his size and is equally as powerful, though Lewis stays in control and plays with more intelligence than Curry did.  Its kind of funny how they contrast in a way- Curry was the rock solid linebacker who was a total unknown as a pass rusher, where Lewis is a capable pass rusher who is an unknown at linebacker.

Lewis is a well rounded player with many positives and no real negatives save uncertainty.  The reason he won’t be a first round pick is because of the dreaded tweener label.  Lewis is too small to be a 3-4 end, he is slightly undersized for the strong side end role in a 4-3, he’s not quite quick enough or skilled enough as a pass rusher to be a weak  side end, and while he looks the part of a 4-3 SAM linebacker, he has no experience at the position really so his effectiveness there, particularly in coverage, is an unknown.

Above I linked two of Lewis’ game compilations, and you will see that he pretty much plays defensive end in every snap, with a few special teams plays thrown in for good measure.  I can only guess how well Lewis’ skills will translate to outside linebacker, but I really like his tape.  He uses his speed and strength well in the pass rush, he gets hustle sacks and makes a lot of difficult do-or-die tackles in space.  I love how he wraps up so well yet still throws his opponent to the ground with force- just to be sure.  At least from this sample, his mental mistakes seem to be minimal, and he almost always seems to know when it is wisest to wait and wisest to attack.  In many ways, he’s like Kam Chancellor the defensive end.  Just a solid contributor every snap who wins you over with consistent quality play.

In Conclusion:

Sometimes the tweener label can lead to a team finding a bargain value.  Brandon Mebane was thought to be too big to be a 3 tech but too small to be a nose tackle or 1 tech.  Seattle drafted him late in the 3rd round, much later than his talent deserved, and found he could be a very effective 1 tech after all.  Kam Chancellor was thought to be too slow or too stiff to handle the coverage responsibilities of a strong saftey, but was also unproven as an outside linebacker.  Seattle took him in the 5th and found a way to work around Chancellor’s weaknesses, making him an immediate pro-bowler at strong safety.  Ronnell Lewis could very well become a pro-bowler for some lucky team in the mid-2nd round, a team that is willing to take a chance on the uncertainty of Lewis’ NFL future.

Relative to his draft stock, Lewis is one of my favorite 2012 prospects.  Sadly, I don’t think Seattle will draft him under normal circumstances.  Seattle already has an able SAM ‘backer in KJ Wright, and while they could move Wright to Mike to accommodate Lewis, I sense that the Seahawks want more speed and more coverage out of the Mike than Wright can provide.  If Seattle drafts Upshaw or Ingram in the first round (which is likely), that would further complicate things if that first round selection plays a DE/SAM hybrid role, which is pretty much exactly what Ronnell Lewis is and would make his selection redundant.

Probably the only way Lewis becomes a Seahawk is if Seattle is given a great offer and trades so far out of the #12 pick that they miss out on all of Coples, Ingram, and Upshaw.  If that happens and Seattle goes a different direction in the first round, they could take Lewis in the 2nd round and use him in a very similar manner to how a guy like Upshaw or Hightower would be used- a hybrid DE/LB.  If Seattle takes Upshaw or Ingram in round 1, then that probably eliminates Lewis later on.  At this point, Lewis is probably only a contingency option for Seattle.  Which I think is a darn shame.  I know it wouldn’t be easy, but if Seattle could find a way to find a role for Lewis in round two, I’d be pretty excited about it.  He’s a risk, but there is a good chance he could become one of the NFL’s better SAM linebackers.

Tony Pauline had an interesting blog post today at DraftInsider.net, discussing Seattle’s possible draft plans on April 26th:

“What will the Seattle Seahawks do? Separate sources told me today the team hopes to move out of the 12th slot and trade into the later portion of round one, where they will then draft linebacker Donta Hightower. If they can’t move the pick they are seriously considering Hightower’s teammate, safety Mark Barron, at that slot and Kam Chancellor would then move to outside linebacker.”

Pauline’s sources are worth noting, especially when it comes to teams in the NFC. His Dallas sources have proven impeccable in recent years. On this one however, I’m not so sure.

Pete Carroll loves safety’s, which is pretty understandable given he played the position in college at Pacific. Carroll made an upgrade at the position one of his top draft priorities in 2010, alongside a new left tackle. Initially, they’d hoped Eric Berry would be available at #6 and Trent Williams would be there at #14. As the process played out, it became clear neither would be available – Williams in particular enjoyed a late surge into the top-five picks. The desire to go OT/FS remained though, evident by the decision to draft Russell Okung and Earl Thomas.

Seattle’s defense puts a lot of emphasis on winning the battle at the LOS, while having a secondary capable of capitalising on turnover opportunities. The safety position has taken a prime role, so the team’s desire to go big on the position shouldn’t be a shock. An alleged interest in Barron equally shouldn’t be surprising.

However… here’s the thing. Kam Chancellor is a pro-bowl safety. He’s the player the Seahawks sent to model the team’s new uniform in New York. He’s one of the big success stories of the Carroll/Schneider era to date. So why would you move him to linebacker? Sure, in the process of the 2010 draft he was considered a possible linebacker project. It’s not a completely ridiculous suggestion. Even so, what if the switch doesn’t work? If he didn’t adapt to the linebacker position, fans and pundits alike would be right to ask, “what was the point?”

Filling a hole at linebacker and making a success of Kam Chancellor would become secondary factors behind the desire to draft Mark Barron. I like Barron, he had a tremendous 2011 season and made a lot of necessary improvements. He’s rangy, he’ll make plays and he’s easily the best safety in this class. But is he that good that you just can’t pass at #12?

It’d be a huge gamble, without much tangible gain. If Barron or Chancellor fail, the move would be ridiculed. Both would have to succeed – and noticeably – for it to be considered a success. Would it be a satisfactory way to address the needs at the linebacker position? And are two first round picks on the safety position really necessary? If the Seahawks did draft Barron, that would be two first round picks on offensive tackles and two on safety’s. When exactly would it be time to concentrate on other key areas like the pass rush, receiver or you know… maybe a quarterback?

For all of the reasons listed above, I just find this information too far fetched. And if you’re doubting the second part about Barron, can you truly believe the bit about trading down for Dont’a Hightower? It wouldn’t shock me if the Seahawks did like Hightower – he’s a tough, physical linebacker with a good field IQ and he’ll be a solid pick for someone in round one. If a deal can be manufactured which enables the Seahawks to move down and possibly acquire draft stock for 2013, I could see it. You’d be looking at a bold trade though, one similar to the deal that allowed Atlanta to move up twenty places last year to claim Julio Jones. Would a team in the 30-35 range make such an offer? It seems pretty unlikely.

And I keep coming back to one particular area of the defense – the pass rush. The number one priority for this draft. If you want to draft a linebacker this year, there are going to be (good) options beyond round one. If you want to draft a pass rusher, the options are far weaker beyond the first. There are situations where maybe the team’s preferred options leave the board before the #12 pick, forcing them to look elsewhere. But only in that scenario can I envisage a situation where they look beyond the pass rushers in this class.

I’ve included game tape videos below of Mark Barron and Dont’a Hightower:

The obvious option for the Buccs at #5?

Trent Richardson to the Browns? That was the decision yesterday in the SDB community mock draft. The Alabama running back received 60% of the votes ahead of Justin Blackmon (16%), Ryan Tannehill (13%) and Morris Claiborne (11%). The first four picks are now in…  

#1 Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)  

#2 Washington Redskins – Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)  

#3 Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil (OT, USC)  

#4 Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)  

It means the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now on the clock…  

With the Browns taking Trent Richardson, it makes the Buccs decision at #5 a bit of a foregone conclusion. Cornerback and linebacker are the team’s two biggest needs and only the prospect of an elite runner such as Richardson would potentially lead the team to other positions.  

Claiborne would be the overwhelming favorite in this scenario, but it’s worth considering what alternatives may exist. Despite adding Vincent Jackson, would the Buccs consider adding another dynamic receiver in Justin Blackmon? Or is that need now completely addressed? What about a right tackle such as Riley Reiff, or a pass rushing compliment off the edge for Adrian Clayborn in Quinton Coples?  

All the other options really are shadowed by Claiborne, but it’s up to you…  

(polls)

Written by Kip Earlywine

Rundown:  Sean Spence is a senior linebacker from the Miami Hurricanes.  He played most of his snaps at middle linebacker.  He was the ACC defensive rookie of the year in 2008.  He has 47.0 career tackles for loss, the second highest career total among 2011 players.

Age:  23 (January 17, 1989)

Height:  5’11”

Weight:  231

40 time:  4.71

10 yard split:  1.59

3 cone:  7.08

Vertical Jump:  33.50″

Compilation Videos:

vs. Clemson (2010)

vs. Kansas St. and Florida St.

Positives:

• Fast
• Aggressive minded, attacks gaps and makes plays behind the line of scrimmage
• Has the burst and closing speed to become a potentially useful blitzer
• Built to excel in coverage
• Capable of delivering hard hits and impressive tackles
• Textbook hand use / fights off blocks well

Negatives:

• Undersized
• Mistake prone
• Occasionally gets sloppy with tackling technique

Sean Spence ran a disappointing 4.71 forty time at the combine, which is straddling the line between average and below average.  Its actually a slower time than those clocked by Leroy Hill (4.65) or even David Hawthorne (4.69 at his pro-day).  As said before, track speed is not the same thing as field speed, and to my eye Spence plays with above average field speed, perhaps a touch less than Bobby Wagner, who clocked a 4.45 time.  I don’t think general managers are going to put much stock into Spence’s 40 time.  They know how fast he is from tape study.

Spence wasn’t quite the linebacker I expected when I watched his compilation videos.  I was expecting a player like Bobby Wagner: consistent, mistake free, and boring.  Spence is different.  He made some splash plays.  He had a sack.  He attacked the first level with good timing which led to many tackles for loss.  I’ve seen a lot of scouting reports that sing praises for Spence’s instincts, and I’d like to as well, but I just can’t.  Not from this sample.  He missed tackles that led to extra yards gained.  He took poor angles in pursuit that turned what could have been a moderate gain and turned it into a big one.  On the second play of the Clemson compilation, he misread and over pursued his run responsibility which directly led to a 71 yard touchdown run.  Spence is erratic.  In this sample it felt like he had more negative plays than splashy ones.

For all of his ugly plays, Spence does occasional show some pretty tackles.  It seems like when Spence has a chance to square up, he can hit and wrap as well as Seattle’s #31: Kam Chancellor.

Spence is undersized, but I’m not sure how much that matters when projecting to the NFL.  His size was not an issue at Miami.  He uses excellent hand technique to almost instantly shed blockers.  Its not every day that one of the smallest linebackers is also one of the best at shedding blocks.  If I had to pick one thing I like about Spence the most- it’s his hand use against blockers.

Spence has fluid hips and has the athleticism to be an excellent coverage linebacker.  As far as how good he actually played in coverage, I really can’t say from the footage I’ve found, although the consensus among scouting reports is very positive.

In conclusion:

Sean Spence is often mocked in the 3rd or 4th round, and after finally scouting him, I feel that’s a pretty fair appraisal.  He has a knack for making plays.  He had 14 TFLs last year and 17 TFLs the year before.  Very few linebackers can boast those kind of numbers.  Bobby Wagner had less than half that many TFLs when playing the 4-3 Mike role from 2009-2010.  But Spence also makes a lot of mistakes.  He’s the kind of guy that can win the game for you on 4th down, but lose the game for you the next week on a crucial late game play.  Both Spence and Wagner can cover and have speed.  Does Seattle prefer the safer version or the gambler?  My gut tells me that Seattle would rather have the safer player, especially if they rely on just two linebackers in a 5-2 front with any consistency.

Regardless of Seattle’s preferences, I’d be a little surprised if they didn’t have both Wagner and Spence on their radar somewhere.  Perhaps Spence could be an insurance policy in rounds 3 or 4 depending on what happens at #43.

Seattle's new look for 2012

New duds

Before we get onto the usual draft talk, today was a big day for Seahawks fans with the introduction of the team’s new uniforms. We might not know who the team are going to draft later this month, but we do know what they’ll look like when they eventually take the field in September. Opinion is mixed, but I think it’ll be a look that grows particularly when fans get to see the new uni’s live rather than in studio-based photographs. I’m also interested to see how Seattle will use the possible combinations of navy, grey and white. I’d recommend watching the video below to get a taste for the enthusiasm within the team for the new look and to also get a feel for what they look like in person.

Hawthorne moves on to New Orleans

David Hawthorne today agreed a 5-year contract with the New Orleans Saints. I think it was apparent Seattle wanted to move on at the position using the draft. Even when the market dried up and reports suggested both parties were talking, Seattle’s interest in keeping Hawthorne appeared lukewarm. Many will now speculate on the increased likelihood that the Seahawks will draft Luke Kuechly, perceiving this as a ‘blow’ with a new hole that must be filled. I strongly disagree with that line of thinking.

I’d guess it was always the team’s intention to move on unless Hawthorne’s market was so limited he could be re-signed on a modest one-year deal, making him expendable. The team appears to be going in a different direction at linebacker, I suspect emphasising speed and coverage ability. Win the war in the trenches at the LOS and have the kind of physical, rangy coverage that will allow such an aggressive approach up front. Hawthorne was always more of a hitter and he became a fans favorite for those talents. But as this team is shaped over time, we’re starting to see new wrinkles emerge.

I expect the Seahawks will draft a linebacker in the first three rounds and I think that player will have ‘coverage’ firmly at the top of his list of positives. For those reasons, I imagine they’d love Zach Brown to fall into round two. A lot of people don’t like that idea, but the guy can flat out cover. He’s not a great pass rusher who delivers fierce hits, but he can go toe-to-toe with a receiver or tight end even on a deep route. Brown plays sideline-to-sideline, he can shift laterally and he covers a ton of ground. He truly is a rare athlete at the linebacker position, and that’s something a lot of teams are looking for these days. Don’t be surprised if he goes earlier than most people expect.

In my mind that’s the kind of prospect the Seahawks will be eyeing, rather than the Luke Kuechly’s of round one. A lot of people ask about Kuechly and he continues to be a hot projection in many mock drafts. Here’s why I don’t buy it. I think the Seahawks intend to be dominant at the LOS, which is why they’ve emphasised size up front and re-signed both Red Bryant and Brandon Mebane as priorities. I expect the team will use it’s first pick on a further compliment to the pass rush and run support, giving Seattle the opportunity to consistently win battle’s up front. Pete Carroll talks a lot about controlling possession, turnovers, and I think he’ll see pressure up front and a suffocating defensive line as a means to create that. It also means having players in the secondary and at linebacker who will allow such an aggressive approach.

Kuechly is pretty good in coverage – a little stiff which isn’t a big surprise (or a big deal at linebacker), but overall he’s sound in that area. However, he’ll always be at his best when the play is developing in front of him. I’ve not scouted a linebacker before with his instinct to track the ball carrier – he gravitates to the ball with such ease and was a great ‘safety net’ in the second level for Boston College after the almost inevitable initial penetration. As good as he is, I’m not sure the Seahawks want that kind of linebacker. As I mentioned above, I think they’ll look for an athlete who’s primary talent will be coverage ability. Using Kuechly in that way is probably a waste of what he’s good at – you don’t want him tracking a TE or WR most of the time because he’s so good at read/react and playing the ball carrier.

Neither do I think the Seahawks will plan to spend the #12 pick on a player who will predominantly make second-level tackles and not improve the pass rush. If they are looking for a linebacker with plus coverage, do you really need to spend a first round pick? Especially with greater priorities such as the aforementioned pass-rush compliment? Whatever your views on the 2012 group of pass rushers, the options are much weaker beyond the team’s first pick. There could actually be some healthy alternatives to Kuechly beyond round one that fit the criteria suggested above.

Sure, there’s an element of guesswork involved here – but that’s just how I view the Seahawks approach to this. Hawthorne moving on does guarantee linebacker will be a target position in the draft, but that was always likely to be the case. Not much changed today and I wouldn’t presume this paves the way for Luke Kuechly at #12.

Seattle looking for late-round gems?

A lot of teams use their allocation of pre-draft visits on the top prospects. Whether it’s designed to cause a smokescreen or just take a look at the premium players, every year you’ll hear a lot about a high-profile quarterbacks schedule. Since John Schneider and Pete Carroll moved to Seattle, they’ve done things slightly differently.

Although there have been meetings with higher profile players (most notably last year with Ryan Mallett, a player not included on the team’s board), the Seahawks tend to use these visits to look at priority UDFA’s and mid to late round gems. I get the impression that tape wins out a lot with Schneider when it comes to the evaluation process, and that combine meetings and subsequent visits are designed to learn more about the person or give the hard sell for those frantic moments after the draft. It’s paid off for Seattle – last year they claimed Doug Baldwin, Ricardo Lockette, Josh Portis and Jeron Johnson as free agents. They’ve also found value in the later rounds of each draft, with Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and KJ Wright becoming key starters.

I’m not sure if there’s any validity to this next suggestion, but I wonder if the Seahawks almost put an uneven amount of time into those late rounds at this stage in the process? Everyone knows about the top-guys by now, but there’s always bargain’s to be found in the mid to late rounds. Maybe one of the ways Seattle has tapped into that talent pool is by dedicating itself to the quest of finding starters in unconventional areas of the draft?

Tony Pauline revealed today that Seattle is meeting with Boise State safety George Iloka and Boston College cornerback Donnie Fletcher. Iloka is 6-3 and 216lbs, while Fletcher comes in at 6-1 and 195lbs – no surprises there given Seattle’s penchant for size in the secondary. Jeremy Lane (CB, Northwestern State) will also visit, he’s another 6-1 cornerback while Ron Brooks (yep, 6-1) is also expected to meet with the Seahawks. Other prospects that have been speculated to be visiting the team include Adrien Robinson (TE, Cincinnati), Derek Carrier (TE, Beloit College), Danny Trevathan (LB, Kentucky) and Matt Conrath (DE, Virginia). The one big name that has been speculated about a visit to Seattle is LSU’s defensive tackle Michael Brockers.

Below I’ve included game tape for Donnie Fletcher and Ron Brooks, and a highlights package for George Iloka: