It caught my eye a few weeks ago when Tony Pauline cited a source saying USC defensive lineman Tui Tuipolotu could go in round one.

I’d spoken briefly to Tony about Tuipolotu and we both agreed he was an incredibly difficult player to grade. In my horizontal board I went for round three simply because I was really struggling to balance out the pro’s and con’s.

He’s listed at 6-4 and 290lbs. He had a tremendous 2022 season with 12.5 sacks and 21 TFL’s.

Yet he’s also the reason why the word ‘tweener’ was invented.

There are a couple of players I really want to see testing results for. One is Tuipolotu and the other is Jared Verse the Florida State pass rusher. I don’t think I’ll be able to give a serious grade on either until after the combine.

I did want to share some thoughts on Tuipolotu though after re-watching three games today.

He has a Euro step. He has a cross-chop. He can win with a fake to the inside before exploding back to the edge. He can bend and straighten. There are wins with a bull-rush where he drives the tackle back into the quarterback. His get-off is good enough to put a tackle on skates. He fights through attempted blocks with good hands — swiping away from the tackle and ripping through contact. He converts speed to power. He can crash inside to attack the B-gap and fill in versus the run. His motor is generally good. He does a lot very well and his repertoire is impressive.

There are also inconsistencies on tape. As impactful as he is, there are stretches where he’s too easily blocked or washed out. He can’t press consistently to keep players away from his frame and you don’t see much of a long arm to stay clean and read the play. He plays in bursts. This is indicative of the key question mark.

He’s such an in-between player. He has the build of a smaller, specialist interior rusher but he rushes the edge well enough to play most of his snaps outside. His pass rushing grade per PFF is 80.6. He’s effective and I think he’s a better player at defensive end.

Yet he lacks the traditional long frame to play the edge. His arm length looks short too and I worry about his ability to keep blockers off his body at the next level consistently. He’s so quick at times and he has some bend and flexibility. Maybe his agility testing and burst will signal a unique talent? Yet his frame doesn’t lend itself to defensive end and I’m not sure a permanent move inside would work either.

Then you come back to the production and assortment of different pass rush wins and you want to rate him extremely highly.

He’s one of the hardest players I’ve tried to work out in a long while. I can well imagine him coming into the NFL and being a little bit inconsistent but finding a way to grab 8-12 sacks a season as a versatile piece who moves around the D-line. I can also imagine him being an ineffective tweener who just feasted on substandard PAC-12 teams and while he looked great rushing the edge in college — there aren’t really any players succeeding with his body type at the next level.

He’s a brilliant test case. If he does test well I can see a team taking a chance in the top-40. I can also see him being there in round three.

His brother Marlon plays for the Eagles. Incidentally, the Eagles defensive coordinator, Jonathan Gannon, has been touted as a potential candidate to replace Pete Carroll this week. Benjamin Allbright re-emphasised this week and even doubled-down on his initial speculation, suggesting John Schneider was ready to work with a new Head Coach.

I don’t think a Carroll-led defense would draft someone like Tuipolotu. A different coach might feel differently.

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This is also available via ‘The Rebuild’ podcast streams

I had a tweet exchange with Joe Fann yesterday and it got me thinking…

Can build an argument for it being best for all concerned

— Rob Staton (@robstaton) December 16, 2022

I hadn’t really considered the possibility of Pete Carroll walking away at the end of the season. Admittedly there’s a distinct possibility he will carry on.

The old saying is, though, that there’s no smoke without fire. And there’s a little bit of smoke blowing through the air at the moment.

Benjamin Allbright tweeted a list of potential teams looking for a new Head Coach earlier this week. He had the Seahawks on that list. When he was challenged on it, he mentioned a ‘possible retirement’.

Today he went a step further, declaring that Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon could end up being Seattle’s ‘top name’ to replace Carroll if he does indeed depart.

Admittedly it’s all speculation at this point but I don’t think it’s as unlikely as some people believe.

For starters, let’s refer back to everything we talked about yesterday. Carroll has struggled for years to establish his core philosophy in Seattle. The defense has been consistently poor, the running game stalls as soon as the latest running back injury happens and they’ve relied too much on the quarterback over the last few seasons, whether that’s Russell Wilson or Geno Smith.

At what point do you admit defeat and hand over the keys?

People like to paint Carroll as a stubborn coaching lifer who will see out his current contract no matter what. That could prove to be the case. Yet it’s often forgotten that five years ago, leading NFL insider Jay Glazer reported that Carroll was considering retirement at the end of the 2017 season — before his contract was due to expire. He then signed an extension in December 2018, during a largely positive season that had the Seahawks trending in the right direction — both in terms of his philosophy and results (wins vs Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, for example).

It’s not beyond the realms of possibility he’s in a similar head-space now, contemplating whether to carry on. He might decide to return once again, just as he did in 2017. Yet if he is thinking of walking, this would be a good time.

Carroll has nothing left to prove. His status within football history is secure. He will always be known as a Seahawks legend and there’s something to be said for walking before you’re pushed.

It’s simply not realistic to just keep on going in the hope that you’ll win a Super Bowl to have a fairytale ending. You’ve got to have a team capable of writing that story. The Seahawks are a long way off and Carroll is 72 next year.

If he goes at the end of the year he’ll do so as a celebrated, much-loved figure in Seattle sports. He’ll be able to recharge and consider if he wants to coach again. If not, there are so many areas where Carroll’s skills as a motivator, culture-builder and leader would be valued.

The Seahawks could launch a fresh start with a haul of picks to help the new Head Coach create a new vision. It would help pave the way for a smoother transition than you’d typically expect when a long-standing coach departs.

If Carroll remains and they use the picks to build around the Clint Hurtt and Sean Desai-influenced defense, which is struggling badly, what happens if the results stay the same? Not only would the team be in a bad place but it’d be a horrible situation for a new Head Coach to inherit in the future. It could lead to another major rebuild being required down the line, without the benefit of a Wilson trade to pad out your stock.

I accept that this all might be as far from Carroll’s mind as anything. He might see the picks as simply a great opportunity to build a new defense. He might even be able to pull it off. As I said though, there’s no smoke without fire. Those tweets from Allbright describe a situation where some people in the league think Carroll isn’t necessarily of the mindset that he’s definitely coming back.

I do think there are reasons to think a change is needed. Carroll has unmatched talent as a motivator and leader but too many of the other things simply haven’t been good enough for too long.

He hasn’t been able to properly deliver his vision for this team for a long time. He hasn’t been able to create a proper defense for years and the play over the last couple of seasons in particular is a major cause for concern. The Seahawks are not a good home team (23-16 since 2018 and 16-15 at Lumen Field over the same period with fans in the stadium). Their playoff “success” since the Super Bowl loss to New England is merely three wins — a fluky Blair Walsh-inspired victory in Minnesota, a win against the Lions and a closer-than-it-should’ve-been win at Philadelphia who had to play a backup quarterback in his 40’s.

There hasn’t been an obvious sign of progress for a long time now. When one threatened to emerge this season in the form of a four-game winning streak, the next five games blasted that hope into the stratosphere with some of the worst defensive and complementary football we’ve seen — the two things that are supposed to be Carroll’s bread and butter.

Yes, the team is rebuilding. Yes, there have been positives this season — namely the play of Geno Smith and performances of certain rookies. I’m not sure we’ll ever see a great Carroll defense again though. I’m not sure we’ll ever see peak-Carroll football. It’s been too long now. The attempts to bring it back have failed.

Even in a rebuilding year, the defense and running game haven’t been consistently good enough. And let’s not pretend like the defensive unit they’re currently fielding hasn’t seen major investment in terms of picks and money over the last few years. The fact it isn’t good enough is an indictment of their spending.

A coaching change might not work out and I appreciate people will challenge why anyone would hope for that. What’s the alternative though? To never have anyone other than Carroll coach the team simply due to fear that the next guy might be no good?

There are risks with any coaching appointment. I would argue persevering with a coach who hasn’t been able to deliver his vision, his philosophy, a good defense or post-season success for multiple years is just as much of a risk as giving a new man an opportunity to come in and take this team to another level.

People will talk about experience and yet what was Carroll’s experience, with the Jets and Patriots, before he came to Seattle and made a success of it?

If you are minded to hope for change, what are you actually saying? That you want a change now — when the new coach gets to use a bunch of great picks to shape his team — rather than in 2025 when Carroll’s contract runs out and he’s 74-years-old and potentially unlikely to sign another? Are three more years of Carroll really that pivotal? Are they that likely to win a Super Bowl by 2025 or is this a longer term build anyway?

There’s one other thing I want to speculate on.

Why did in-demand Sean Desai take a job in Seattle as an associate Head Coach? Why, after the big meeting with Jody Allen that was downplayed by the media, did Ken Norton Jr lose his job and suddenly we see a move towards appointing Vic Fangio protégés with a defensive scheme change?

It felt like Carroll was ceding some control but what if it was more than that? Is it that out of the question that the new defensive plan and the staff appointments were with a view to the future? A view where Carroll’s scheme and ideas would be less prevalent because he wouldn’t necessarily be here much longer?

Was it part of a succession plan that could be brought into action within the next 1-3 years?

Maybe it’s 2+2=5 but Carroll hasn’t been a big advocate of bringing in outsiders to his coaching staff over the years. Neither has he really wavered on scheme — yet here he was, doing just that.

Or perhaps he was just told to do something different? Or actively suggested it to improve his standing in a meeting that felt bigger than it was reported, given what followed (coaching changes & the Wilson trade).

Again, this is a lot of speculative talk on my behalf. It does feel like a transition has begun though. I think John Schneider gained greater control after the meeting with Allen, for example. It would’ve been great to be a fly on the wall there, to find out exactly what was said and by whom.

I don’t really like writing about this subject because it’s a hot-button topic that makes people angry. There are plenty of Seahawks fans who don’t know what life is like without Pete Carroll. We’re coming up to 13 years since he was appointed. People have grown up with Carroll as Head Coach of the Seahawks and don’t even remember Jim Mora Jr or Mike Holmgren, let alone anyone else.

I think we’d do ourselves a disservice though, as a group of passionate Seahawks followers, to not at least consider possibilities.

People used to mock any suggestion that Russell Wilson would be traded. That continued right up to the point the deal with Denver was announced.

My suggestion would be don’t rule anything out. Do I think Carroll will depart? I wouldn’t bet any money on it. I do think it’s probably more of a possibility than some people think, however.

The next four games could have a big impact on what happens next.

If you’ve enjoyed the work and want to support the blog so that I can consider options for the pre-draft coverage in the new year, please consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

I remember it like it was yesterday.

23rd December, 2012.

The moment it became realistic to dream about winning it all.

The Seahawks hammered the 49ers. After three consecutive defeats to Jim Harbaugh’s crew, this felt like a turning point. A 42-13 obliteration. Even though the Niners went to the Super Bowl that year, we could all see what the Seahawks were becoming.

12 months later, they were on the road to a title.

The 2012 Niners game was immortalised in the brilliant ‘Rain City Redemption’ series. Included was a clip of Red Bryant firing his team-mates up pre-game.

“We run the ball, we win. We stop the run, we win”

Bryant barked out the line with gusto. It was a sign that everyone on the team knew what they were trying to achieve. What they intended to be.

That identity carried the Seahawks along. When it began to shift away from ‘run the ball with Marshawn and defend the run with physicality’ — the cracks began to form. We get to relive the fall-out on a nearly monthly basis thanks to Richard Sherman’s podcast.

The thing is, the Seahawks have tried for some time to get back to what they were. It’s years now since John Schneider told the media it was their intention to become the bullies again. They’ve re-set the roster twice — in 2018 and in 2022.

At no point have they been able to become what they intend to be.

Pete Carroll’s much debated philosophy remains a distant dream. An intention but not a reality.

Has a franchise ever been so clear in what it wants to be and so consistently failed to achieve it?

It says it all that yesterday, people on Twitter were actually crediting Seattle’s defense for not being so bad. They only gave up 170 rushing yards after all and 55 of those yards came on one play at the end! What an improvement from the previous few weeks.

The defense has allowed 1008 rushing yards in the last five games.

Stop the run and we win? No wonder they’re 1-4 in that stretch and were very nearly 0-5.

This has been a years long issue now. According to Football Outsiders — since the initial re-set in 2018, the Seahawks rank 22nd in defensive EPA per play and they haven’t finished a season ranked better than 17th in defensive DVOA.

Go beyond the analytics. In 2018 the pass rush solely relied on one player — Frank Clark. Then they traded him away. Since then, we’ve heard numerous mentions of prioritising this area for improvement. Year after year they fail to put together anything like a consistent, coherent, acceptable pass rush.

They’ve tried different co-ordinators, different schemes and different players. Carroll has appeared to be more hands-on at times and then this year, there was evidence of him perhaps ceding some input to the Vic Fangio-crowd. The results never change.

The Seahawks have a defensive-minded Head Coach and the defense is consistently dreadful.

Now the running game. If Marshawn Lynch needs an argument to be formed about his Hall of Fame candidacy — he just needs to point to the period of Carroll football where he hasn’t been the feature back.

In the Lynch days, the running game was consistent and set a tone. Even when the yards weren’t there — the attention Lynch demanded created opportunities for the passing game.

Since his initial retirement, what have we seen? Fluctuating form at best. At times Chris Carson shone and produced the balance Seattle craves on offense. Yet too often he would get injured and that would be that. Ditto Rashaad Penny. The occasional flash of brilliance, such as at the end of last season, but then more injuries. Ken Walker has shown moments of genuine quality this year. He too has had a couple of injuries already and is too often found looking for a home-run, rather than letting the blocking guide him to the right area.

Let’s look at the numbers for Seattle’s leading rushers over the last three seasons. Remember — this is a team determined to run as a focal point:

2020 — Chris Carson 681
2021 — Rashaad Penny 749
2022 — Ken Walker 696 (with four games remaining)

Run the ball and we win? The Seahawks’ running game deserves to be viewed as inconsistent at best. A more fitting description might be ‘not fit for purpose’ — at least not for a team so focused on making it a feature.

The one thing that has remained consistent since 2018 is the over-reliance on the quarterback. Between 2018-2020 the team basically lived and died on the arm of Russell Wilson. Now, the situation is exactly the same. Geno Smith carries the team instead. He gets almost no help from the defense or running game. Good luck Geno and if you don’t play like a Super Hero, we’re probably going to lose.

Unsurprisingly it isn’t working out for the QB.

There are plenty of teams out there who depend on the quarterback and are content living in that space. The Seahawks actively work hard to avoid becoming a one-man team and yet year after year, they find themselves relying on the QB.

We need to talk about this more.

Look — it’s not about calling for heads to roll or for people to be fired. I just think if we’re going to have all of the articles, tweets and attempts to serve crow when the going is good — we also need to have frank conversations about issues when they emerge too.

People were writing articles calling for apologies to be sent to Pete Carroll during the four-game winning streak. Perhaps, now that the team is on a 1-4 run and playing poorly, we can have a more serious debate about why we’ve seen the same problems re-appear for years?

I’ve no doubt the point will be made in response that they just need the benefit of a bounty of picks, courtesy of the Denver Broncos, to rectify the problem. That’s fine and perhaps that will prove to be the case. Yet we shouldn’t act like the Seahawks’ top brass have been a hapless bystander for years — handcuffed to a bad defensive unit.

They have created this group.

People talk about the D-line. It’s full of players they’ve drafted in the early rounds (L.J. Collier, Darrell Taylor, Boye Mafe), players they paid to retain (Poona Ford — with the highest cap-hit on the roster — and Bryan Mone) or retained over numerous years (Al Woods). This is their bunch of guys.

They’ve also spent a first round pick on Jordyn Brooks, a third rounder on Cody Barton, paid a high price to keep Quandre Diggs and a kings ransom to acquire and retain Jamal Adams.

A massive resource spend has created this group. Another massive resource spend isn’t guaranteed to do anything unless they get it right.

This is especially the case when you select someone like Mafe early in round two and then give him considerably fewer snaps than ‘signed off the couch and on the brink of retirement’ Bruce Irvin. I mean, look at the difference here:

vs Tampa Bay — Mafe 37.3%, Irvin 62.7%
vs Las Vegas — Mafe 35.1%, Irvin 68.8%
vs Carolina — Mafe 15.6%, Irvin 77.8%
vs San Francisco — Mafe 35.9%, Irvin 53.1%

Irvin’s PFF grade is a 62.2 and Mafe’s grading at 60.5. They both have two sacks. If their performance levels are almost identical — why is Mafe, a potential long-term piece for the defense, sitting and watching Irvin gobble up a bulk of the snaps?

It just doesn’t make any sense.

We’ve seen this before haven’t we? With the unspectacular Benson Mayowa regularly preferred to Alton Robinson over the previous two seasons.

As noted yesterday — there are big questions to be asked about whether the Seahawks need to bin-off the scheme they adopted this year. It isn’t working in Minnesota with Ed Donatell either, or in LA with Brandon Staley. It appears unless you have Vic Fangio, the Fangio defense just doesn’t work.

Also noted yesterday — the importance of being ruthless in the off-season. You cannot pay Diggs and Adams $36m combined in 2023. They shifted resource away from linebacker by cutting Bobby Wagner this year. They need to do the same at safety now — relying on younger, faster, healthier players and pumping extra money into the trenches. Ryan Neal is a perfect example of why spending big at safety isn’t necessary and there are safeties in the upcoming draft who can provide cheap value.

It’s also really important to be firm in asking — when are things going to change? When will a team that sets out to run and defend the run brilliantly, actually manage to pull it off?

How many years of failing to do so is acceptable?

At what point does the whole, ‘this season has been better than anyone expected!’ stop being used as acceptable blanket to cover all ills?

The Seahawks are 7-7 with a powder-puff schedule. We might not have expected Geno Smith to excel this year — but neither did we expect the Rams and Cardinals to be a shambles.

Seattle’s strength of schedule is just .450 compared to Detroit’s .550, Washington’s .545 and New York’s .550. Of the four teams in the race to be the crappy team who gets the seventh seed, the Seahawks’ schedule has been far more favourable.

Frankly, had they only won 4-5 games to this point — it’d actually be really bad given the opponents they’ve faced.

And I’ll mention again — Seattle is just 23-16 at home since 2018 and that’s with a 7-1 2021 record when they played a full year without fans. When the 12’s are actually in Lumen Field — since 2018 the team is only 16-15. That’s crazy.

These are all inconvenient truths that we can’t shy away from just because Geno Smith has played better than expected because aside from that, a lot of consistent problems remain.

If we don’t talk about them — if the media doesn’t talk about them — when will anything change?

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Well, that was hard to watch.

It’s certainly true that the 49ers have a very good roster that are a tough opponent for anyone. This was always going to be a big challenge for a slumping Seahawks team.

That said, the Niners came to Seattle without Deebo Samuel. Javon Kinlaw and Jason Verrett are on injured reserve. They’re onto their third quarterback — an undrafted rookie playing in his first road game.

This was also a do-or-die night for the Seahawks. The division would be lost. The playoff chances would take a massive hit. They had to bring their A-game, gather together and find a way.

What we saw, however, was the complete opposite.

As has been the case for weeks now, the Seahawks looked unprepared for this contest. On offense they started with a bunch of three-and-outs. Defensively it felt like they were clinging on throughout.

The close scoreline — 21-13 — barely tells the story.

Before half-time Seattle delivered a comedy of errors so bad it would’ve been fitting to play the circus march in the background. Quandre Diggs drops an easy interception. Travis Homer fumbles the ball on offense. The Niners punch in a touchdown.

Then to make matters worse — at the start of the third quarter, an appalling piece of coverage by the defense to leave George Kittle of all people wide open downfield. A disgusting attempted tackle by Diggs. A massive, back-breaking touchdown to effectively end the game as a contest.

It’s week 15. The plan for a new defensive scheme has gone so badly that it appears the players still don’t know what they’re doing. How can something as basic as the linebacker carrying one of San Francisco’s best players downfield be an issue at this stage, in a game of this importance?

We’ve been talking about Diggs for weeks and this really should be the exclamation point on his future. You cannot pay him $18m next season. It’s as simple as that.

He’s not the only mistake that needs reversing though. They need to get rid of this scheme. I don’t want to see a war-chest of picks pumped into this system.

Before they appointed Sean Desai and Clint Hurtt — Pete Carroll was busy recruiting old pal Ed Donatell. The Vikings have more talent on defense and guess what? The fans and media are trying to run Donatell out of town because they are failing badly on that side of the ball, undermining the offensive production.

Throwing rookies into a system that the likes of Jordyn Brooks seem to be struggling with isn’t the answer. I’ve seen enough. This isn’t the system to build around. It’s too easy to play against, too easy to run against and creates no pressure. Move on.

And no — there isn’t going to be anyone available at #2 or #3 in the 2023 draft who can do what Nick Bosa did today. Sadly.

It’s not just the defense though. The offense didn’t really seem to have any idea how to combat the challenge of the Niners’ defense. The running game was again non-existent. Days after admitting he’s been too aggressive recently — Geno Smith was back to mixing in some nice passes with some ‘oh no…’ throws. He was massively fortunate that a pick-six was called back at the start of the second half on a dubious roughing penalty and was lucky on some other throws that could’ve been snared.

Smith is really the only shining light though — along with the two key receivers (when they aren’t collecting dumb taunting penalties). No quarterback can thrive with no help and no protection. The rookie tackles struggled. They can’t run to save their lives. It’s tough to watch.

The playoff dream is unravelling, as is any real feel good factor from this season. The warm glow of the unexpected is disappearing. They’re 1-4 in the last five with the only win a closer-than-it-should’ve-been win in LA.

The Seahawks have seven wins, with hindsight, against a bunch of bad teams. Two wins against the Cardinals, a win against Denver, a win against the Rams’ backups. They were lucky enough to play Detroit without key players before they got hot. The Giants are imploding in a similar way to the Seahawks.

Perhaps it is still possible to say we never expected to be 7-7 at this point. But in the context of how their schedule has turned out — and how the NFC West has folded with the exception of San Francisco — is it really that much of an achievement any more? Do the Arizona, Rams and Broncos wins really give you much optimism for the future?

The Lions are 6-7 with a loaded strength of schedule at .552. The Commanders (.543) and Giants (.552) are in the same boat.

Seattle’s strength of schedule is .450. That’s a big difference.

The Seahawks are also 3-4 at home this season and 23-16 at Lumen Field since 2018. That’s a topic few people seem to want to embrace. Remember — that 23-16 record also includes a 7-1 record in 2020 when the games were played without fans due to Covid. So since 2018, with fans in the stadium, the Seahawks are 16-15 at home.

Right now it’s difficult to invest faith in the defense without major structural and schematic work. They don’t have the cap space to splurge because a lot of it is committed to players like Diggs, Jamal Adams and the defensive linemen currently on the roster.

I don’t want to watch this team in the playoffs. It would be a futile exercise and might simply mean another crushing loss to the Niners as a bad seventh seed.

They’ll be 7-8 when they lose to the Chiefs on Christmas Eve (what a game to have to face next). They might as well save themselves the bother of a playoff one-and-done and have a better draft pick in each round. Not that the Seahawks will see it that way, or should think that way. But we can. We can be honest about it.

Perhaps of more pressing concern is the total lack of identity this team has and the inability of the coaches to fix problems.

We’re watching Kyle Shanahan’s offense basically just run through quarterbacks and they don’t miss a beat. For the Seahawks, their defensive staff (including the Head Coach) can’t even get the players to avoid blown coverages against a key tight end.

How many more years of bad defense and an inconsistent running game are we going to see? Especially when the clearly defined identity calls for both to be the focal point of the team?

Another 172 rushing yards given up tonight, compared to Seattle’s paltry 70 yards.

In many ways the 2022 Seahawks feel a lot like the 2018-2020 Seahawks. Then, they were carried by the quarterback. Now, they’re carried by a different quarterback.

It’s not supposed to be this way. How long are we going to keep ignoring that?

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. After the game today tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel

Pete Carroll’s record at home against the San Francisco 49ers is a sparkling 10-2. Those two losses were extremely close as well, losing by a field goal late in the game in 2011 and by a couple inches as a fourth-down pass to Jacob Hollister with twelve seconds to play netted four yards when the Seahawks needed five to win it.

That is about as good a stretch against one opponent – particularly a division opponent – as you are likely to find in the NFL.

I point this out not in some vain attempt to guarantee a win or engender unreasonable expectations for the Thursday game but as a way to demonstrate that current-year records and trends can at times take a backseat when games against division opponents appear on the schedule. Particularly when you consider this game is a must-win for the Seahawks to punch their ticket to the playoffs by winning the division. Absent that, it is scraping for a wild-card spot and relying on other teams to lose.

As a straight up head-to-head matchup, this looks like an incredibly tough game for the Seahawks.

San Francisco has been on a roll, winning six consecutive games.

It is not just the wins though; it is the way they are winning that spells so much trouble for Seattle. They are actually doing what Pete Carroll wishes the Seahawks could do. They are running the ball at will and stopping the run on defense.

In the last six games the Niners have run for an average of 142 yards per game. Their defense? Allowing an average of 57 yards per game.

You read that right. They are out-gaining opponents on the ground by a whopping 85 yards per game.

The Seahawks’ last six? They are floundering at 3-3 and have been getting out-gained by 92 yards per game on the ground.

The math is just too convenient. It points to a big disparity and portends that the Niners should completely control this game.

So that is the only real watch point. The Seahawks have to at least get closer to keeping this game even on the ground if they are to have a chance.

Kenneth Walker appears ready to come back. It is entirely possible that the team felt he could have played against Carolina but decided to save him for this game. They will need everything he can muster. The recent streak he has been on of ‘dancing indecisiveness’ looking for daylight will have to be put behind him. The team will take any game-breaking runs they can get but at this point just a solid ground game that takes some pressure off Geno Smith and the defense would be a major step in the right direction.

On defense, the only thing I can suggest to improve their rushing defense is to bring Bob Newhart in as a sports consultant. The time for scheme questions and talk about run fits is over. The team has to execute. They must stop the run in order to have a fighting chance.

The rest is minor details. But here a couple factors that could really play out in this game…

Win the Turnover Battle

This has been a big key to the Niners’ resurgence. During their six-game winning streak, the team has been an astounding +9 in turnover ratio. They have absolutely dominated opponents in this area, with 12 turnovers against only three giveaways.

Eight of those turnovers have been interceptions, coming from seven different defenders.

Meanwhile, their offense has only thrown two interceptions in six games.

Geno Smith has really struggled with decision-making recently. With the absence of a solid running game and a defense on track to once again be on the field for the most plays in the NFL, he has taken some chances on offense that he should not and it has burned him.

He actually came out and said this in a recent press conference:

Geno Smith says “I think I’ve been too aggressive of late.”

Says he needs to get back to taking what defenses are giving him and the Seahawks. Usually, that means check-downs over forces. pic.twitter.com/2w5U2KxEom

— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) December 13, 2022

It is a nice moment of honesty from Geno about his recent play. There is a reason he has led the league in completion percentage this season while still pushing the ball downfield: he has made good decisions and been able to execute them. If the Seahawks are to have a chance on Thursday, Geno will need to once again find that slim margin between safe and aggressive.

Fumbles and ball security will also be critical for the offense. D.K. Metcalf has two fumbles this season. Now would be a time for him to keep control of the ball and dominate the game.

On defense, forcing turnovers would go a very, very long way towards winning.

Tariq Woolen is their star ballhawk. Another interception Thursday would be a tremendously impactful.

However, as the Niners are likely to run heavily, chances are those turnovers will have to come in the form of fumbles.

That may provide an advantage for Seattle – the Seahawks are tied for third in the NFL with ten recovered fumbles. However, they have hit a bit of a dry spell. Their last recovered fumble was in Week Nine against the Cardinals. If there would be one game where they desperately need to pick that trend back up, it would be this one.

Turnovers are extremely hard to predict. Sometimes they come in the form of a little luck, sometimes it is all hard work and desire. One of those ways the Seahawks can control. The team has been miserable and beaten up on defense in recent games.

In a way, a Thursday game could actually prove beneficial. A way for the team to not stew on their troubles for a couple days but put their head down and get back to work. A return to Turnover Thursday would be just what the doctor ordered.

Involve the Tight Ends in the Offense More

This one is a tall order. San Francisco are one of the NFL’s best teams in defending tight ends. Their two safeties are allowing only a 58% completion percentage on 69 targets this year. Fred Warner is allowing only 62%.

Indeed, the Seahawks only gained 11 yards on four targets to the tight ends in that Week Two loss. What has been a big weapon all season for the Seahawks was effectively neutralized in that game.

The Niners players are experts at clogging the middle of the field and quickly closing windows to tight ends in the seam. The result has been only two touchdowns conceded and the third-lowest yards in the NFL conceded to tight ends all year.

Shane Waldron is going to have a real job ahead of him. We have seen some creativity in the offense this year. Ways to get guys open for pretty simple completions.

The boot play has been an extremely effective tool at getting the offense in gear with some easy yards. It works as an occasional substitute for an ineffective rushing game. No doubt the Niners have seen its effectiveness and are scheming up ways to counter it.

So, it is a chess match. The Seahawks will definitely want to use a play like this early in the game. Show the Niners what they can do here and establish a little rhythm. But also, they need to build off of it. Add a wrinkle or two and try to catch the defense over-pursuing a little.

How about flipping the script a little? Line up Metcalf in the slot and a Noah Fant or Colby Parkinson out wide and have Metcalf either move the defenders out to clear the field for a quick slant to let the tight end use his size advantage over the corner. Or, if the Niners put a smaller or slower defender on Metcalf, him use his size and skill advantages to win that battle.

Win the Miscellaneous

This is sort of a catch-all for the odd details that often happen to the Seahawks in games this year. They have to come out on the winning end on more of these than not.

That means winning challenges, or Pete Carroll having the wisdom to not challenge sure losses or inconsequential wins.

That means ‘winning’ the controversial calls by the referees more than ‘losing’ them.

That means a strong, mistake-free game from the Special Teams unit.

That means Pete Carroll making good decisions on the field. When to go for it on fourth down, when to blitz, when to call timeouts, and having the wisdom to know when a trick play will work and when to deploy it.

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

Record: 1-3

Thoughts

What a frustrating quarter. The Seahawks entered it on a high note, having completely swept the second quarter. They exit with more questions than answers. That 4-0 quarter now appears like an aberration in a resetting year.

Were they the beneficiaries of poor play by the Cardinals, Chargers and Giants? Or was it a game of perfect matchups and timing, where all the pieces just fell together for one sweet month?

Which Seahawks team is the true one? The first and third quarter one or the second quarter one?

The weight of the evidence suggests the Seahawks are more the former than the latter.

MVP

1.Tyler Lockett

A touchdown catch every single game this quarter. Fifteen first-down catches and 298 total yards, including 107 yards after the catch.

Geno Smith has a 105 QB rating when targeting Lockett.

Again, Lockett is headed toward one of his best seasons as a pro with Smith throwing the passes.

He signed an extension last year and is already outperforming it. He is the 20th-highest paid wide receiver in the NFL. He has been everything the Seahawks could have hoped for when they drafted him.

2.Tariq Woolen

Two interceptions this quarter on only eleven QB targets. Only 54 yards conceded in four games. Only ten yards after the catch allowed. Seventeen tackles – a quarter high for him.

But it is so, so much more than that.

It is the tough tackles. It is the vision and awareness to break off his man and teleport across the field to break up a pass to a wide-open receiver his teammate had blown coverage on in the Carolina game.

Woolen is doing everything asked of him at a high level and more. His star will not stop ascending.

3.D.K. Metcalf

Thirty catches, eighteen of them were first down catches. Two touchdowns, including the winner against the Rams and Jalen Ramsey. 359 yards, nearly 90 per game.

The branching out is still happening. He can be a short, move-the-chains weapon, a go-to receiver in tight spots and a deep threat. And it is not just all feasting on poor corners — he can be productive when matched up with the other team’s top corner.

Honorable Mention: Geno Smith

Ten touchdowns against four interceptions this quarter for a 105.9 rating.

A slight dip in his completion percentage to 68.28% – which if he threw at that rate for the whole season, would still be the best in the NFL.

He has had a couple ‘old Geno’ moments this quarter with some questionable throws. But let’s not forget he had very little run support (he had 67 rushing yards to Kenneth Walker’s 79) and was constantly battling a poor defense and for the most part still delivered.

There has been a distinct air of putting down Geno’s performance of late from fans. Perhaps it is an overreaction to the calls for Geno to get MVP votes all year.

At any rate, he is still playing at a high level. Do not be surprised if the Seahawks move to give him a contract this offseason.

Rookie of the Quarter

1.Tariq Woolen

It is happening. The league is catching on. A season-low eleven targets this quarter, just under three targets per game. He still managed two interceptions.

Teams are avoiding Woolen. Again, I feel it needs to be said — 13 games into the career of this fifth-round rookie, NFL teams are starting to actively avoid him. Unreal.

There are so many poor elements to this defense, why even bother going after the one player who is playing at such a high level?

Everybody Else

Other than Woolen, there was not much that was praiseworthy from the rookies this quarter.

Cross and Lucas have played just about every snap and their play has not dipped drastically but neither have there been signs of progression. Lucas had a rough game against Maxx Crosby and it cost the Seahawks.

Coby Bryant had no game-changing turnover plays this quarter.

Ken Walker hit the ‘bust’ part of a Rashaad Penny-like boom or bust streak. He was constantly very close to busting a big run but kept getting bottled up.

Boye Mafe’s snaps have vastly decreased. Why?

Successes

1.The game-winning drive vs LA

It was a thing of beauty. Geno Smith’s sparkling season had been dogged by one nagging omission: a signature game-winning drive. He delivered wonderfully.

He was 5-for-8 and drew an illegal contact penalty on Jalen Ramsey. He targeted five different receivers and the touchdown-scoring play was a beauty. He glided in the pocket to buy time and threw a perfect pass to Metcalf with Ramsey draped all over him.

The Rams were beat up and fielding a mash unit of a team. The win was more symbolic than something to build on. But beating the Rams and answering that one dogging drive question is always a good day’s work.

2.Two great kickoff returns by Godwin Igwebuike in the Carolina game

Deejay Dallas’ injury was the Seahawks’ good fortune in this game.

Practice squad elevation Godwin Igwebuike put a charge into the team with 105 return yards on three attempts.

He had a 50-yarder and a 35-yarder, as well as a standard 20-yard return.

The Seahawks have been lacking a real return game for years. The offense (with this poor defense) has had to scratch and claw for every yard.

Seventeen of the Seahawks’ 24 points in that game were from drives started by an Igwebuike return.

It would be malpractice if the Seahawks do not elevate him to the team and use him on every kick return from here on out.

3.Jason Myers was perfect

He appears to be back to his high standard of play this year.

He was perfect on both field goals and extra points this quarter.

On the year he has only missed one of each.

It may not be exciting but he is doing everything that is asked of him.

Struggles

1.Run Defense

838 yards conceded on the ground this quarter. That works out to 209 yards per game.

They are conceding 160.5 yards per game on the ground this year.

In the last ten NFL seasons (that is 320 team-seasons) only three teams have done worse on run defense.

Once again, the Seahawks are leading the NFL in a dubious stat: Most snaps faced. The defense cannot get off the field, and their run defense is why.

2.Run Offense

They had 594 yards rushing in the second quarter.

This quarter? 240.

As much as you could see Pete Carroll’s vision coming to fruition in that quarter, this quarter you can see how much the team struggled when they could not run the ball effectively. The defense saw more snaps than they should. Geno Smith was under more pressure than he should be.

The circle was broken this quarter.

Ken Walker struggled to get on track and then got hurt. Depth players Deejay Dallas and Travis Homer also were banged up and ineffective.

The Seahawks are the 21st-ranked team in rushing this year. They are a bad game away from dropping into the bottom ten.

3.Turnovers

The team was -1 this quarter. They have seven giveaways and six takeaways.

Four interceptions and three fumbles.

When you cannot run the ball effectively, and the defense cannot stop the run, giving the ball back to the opponent is a multiplier that takes chances away from the offense and simultaneously forces them to rely on increasingly riskier plays.

Next Quarter Games

San Francisco TNF
@ Kansas City Saturday
New York Jets
LA Rams

Goals

1.Fix the Defense

I hate repeating myself. It’s lazy that I cannot find something new and interesting to say. But I have to crib my first quarter report card goal:

Something. Anything. Give us something to believe in.

With the way the offense is playing, we do not need the defense to be a top-10 unit. Just middle of the pack.

Start slowly and build.

Have the guys knowing their assignments one week. Minimize the penalties the second. Work on creating some pass rush the third. And so on.

The Seahawks responded and delivered a great defensive second quarter.

They need to respond again. It is the only thing that is going to prevent this fourth quarter from being an unmitigated disaster.

2.Manage the Rookie Wall

College players usually play 12 or 13 games. This last quarter Lucas, Cross and the crew will be asked to go above and beyond for the first time.

Now is when those workouts in June and July pay off. When these young players forego hamburgers and french fries in favor of fresh fruits and baked chicken.

Now it is when their professionalism needs to show up.

3.At least be competitive in the two division games

Is that too much to ask? San Francisco steamrolled the Seahawks in Week Two. The Seahawks must respond.

The Rams? I don’t care if they are depleted, sweeping the Rams after the last five years of absolute agony against them would be an achievement they could take into 2023 to build on.

ESPN analyst Todd McShay has published his first mock draft of the year. Here are a few quick thoughts…

Some of the things we’ve been discussing for a long time are represented. For example, I’ve been saying I think Texas running back Bijan Robinson will top many draft boards in terms of pure grade. In a year without many clear top-10 picks, I’ll be surprised if someone doesn’t take him in that range despite his position. He is just too good and the alternative options will be far less talented.

McShay has Robinson going fifth overall to the Eagles at #5. It’s a perfect match.

There’s also a place for Anthony Richardson at #11. That’s not as high as I’ve been suggesting but McShay has Richardson at #32 on his big board. Thus, he is acknowledging here that there’s a very realistic chance the Florida quarterback will be taken very early — irrespective of how raw he is perceived to be.

I think as we go through this process he will continue to appear in more and more mock drafts and should he have a strong draft season, he will be a firm candidate for the top-five based on his incredible upside. As we’ve been noting for some time — there are plenty of elite QB’s in the NFL currently who were not being mocked in the top-15 when they declared. Patrick Mahomes, as highlighted last week, wasn’t even included in Daniel Jeremiah’s top-50 board just three weeks before the 2017 draft.

McShay has Will Levis at #6. This is validation of how we’ve assessed Levis over the last 12 months and the way we’ve projected him and his situation at Kentucky which, frankly, was horrendous. The lack of weapons, the fact he was sacked endlessly compared to every other big name quarterback in college football and his experience in a pro-system rather than a wide-open, half-field system that delivers mass-production. He’s not had it easy and he’s immensely talented.

McShay also has Michael Mayer going very early (#12) which I think is a lock and he has Myles Murphy lasting to #14. I don’t understand how or why people keep putting Murphy in the top five or six picks. Have they watched Clemson?

I’d be surprised if Peter Skoronski and Paris Johnson Jr go in the top-10. I don’t think either player is deserving of that mark, despite the premium nature and big need for offensive linemen. Skoronski is a guard convert in all likelihood and Johnson Jr just doesn’t jump off the screen.

Seattle’s picks are Jalen Carter at #2 and Brian Branch at #18.

We’ve discussed Carter a lot and he would provide a long overdue interior presence for a struggling D-line. He will be the first non-QB taken barring any unforeseen injury or character issues and a tremendous addition. Whether it’s Seattle or Chicago picking at #2 — Carter will almost certainly leave the board there, unless someone trades up.

Here’s McShay’s blurb:

This pick is higher than Seattle thought it would be when it sent Russell Wilson to Denver in March — and it will have options here. First, if the Seahawks aren’t sold on Geno Smith long term, they can happily select Ohio State passer C.J. Stroud and let Smith walk in free agency. Second, they can trade back with a team that wants Stroud and pick up even more picks for their ongoing rebuild. Or third, they can add a difference-making defender.

It’s still early to project trades or truly evaluate Smith’s future, so I’m opting for the third option — and going with Carter over Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. Seattle has a bigger need on the interior than edge, and I think Carter could be dominant there with a lightning-fast first step and plenty of disruptive power. He reminds me of Quinnen Williams.

McShay is right to highlight the possibility of drafting a quarterback at #2, although it’s nothing to do with being sold or not on Geno Smith. The simple fact is Smith turns 33 next year and has had one good season. Hedging your bets isn’t a negative given recent performances haven’t been as strong:

Geno Smith

Weeks 1-4: 5th in EPA/play, 30.9 total EPA
Weeks 5-14: 18th in EPA/play, 29.7 total EPA

Mistakes have been killers, with Geno losing more expected points to INTs, sacks and fumbles since Week 5 than any other quarterback pic.twitter.com/1GximK1y3v

— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) December 12, 2022

Owning pick #2 would be a rare gift and an unusual, for this franchise, opportunity to select a top quarterback prospect. They would have to strongly consider that, even if they retain Smith as the starter. Quarterback is a critical position. Having a player for today and one learning and developing for the future would be a good plan. If they love Stroud, Levis or Richardson — the three available in McShay’s mock — it should be considered.

I do think it’s very possible the Seahawks draft a safety in the first two rounds. They have to be ruthless with Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams and can’t justify committing $36m to the pair in 2023. I’m not sure they’d do it at #18 though — or for Brian Branch. He is, as McShay notes, more of a hybrid slot/safety. At times he looks like a Rolls Royce gliding across the field but he can also pack a punch. He’s not an eraser or a strong safety though.

McShay:

It’s all defense in Round 1 for Seattle, after it took Jalen Carter at No. 2 — and Branch can impact every area of that side of the ball. You’ll see him down near the line of scrimmage trying to make a run stop, blitzing through gaps, holding up in coverage and showcasing his range and instincts on the back end. He fits this system and would be a great complement to rookie corners Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant. Jamal Adams is turning 28 next season, while Quandre Diggs will be 30, so adding to the safety room would be prudent. But Branch has played quite a bit of slot corner, and that’s where I’d expect him to make an impact early in his career.

Boise State’s J.L. Skinner looks a better fit and might be available early in round two. He is the closest thing I’ve seen to Kam Chancellor since Kam retired.

A quick final note — the updated draft list has Seattle now in possession of #17, not #18.

If you’ve enjoyed the work and want to support the blog so that I can consider options for the pre-draft coverage in the new year, please consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

1. It’s clear for all to see the defense needs a talent injection. It’s critical that improvements are made in the next draft and some difficult decisions need to be made on underperforming, expensive veterans already on the roster. They need to be ruthless in the off-season.

2. It’s also vital that the Seahawks are investing talent in the right scheme. Nothing about what we’re seeing this season suggests the changes for 2022 are worth persevering with. Fair play to them for trying something different but doubling down on a mistake would be a critical error. They should seriously consider going back to the classic Carroll defense, while ever he remains Head Coach, and drafting for that system. If that means further coaching changes, so be it.

3. If you’re running a Vic Fangio-style defense without Fangio on your staff — it probably isn’t going to work. See the Seahawks, Vikings and Chargers. Meanwhile Dan Quinn, Robert Salah and DeMeco Ryans are running schemes with a lot of Carroll DNA attached. To me it’s obvious if you’re adding talent, especially in the top-five of the next draft, you should put that talent in a system that is working within the league. Carroll isn’t hiring Fangio — so the Seahawks shouldn’t run a scheme influenced by him. It’s showing to be very difficult to re-create the success Fangio typically produces. If Fangio is a Rolex Watch, the Seahawks, Vikings and others seemingly bought a cheap knock-off on a street corner and are trying to pass it off as the real thing. Clearly, nobody’s having it.

4. Speaking of coaches — there was a Sunday Splash report suggesting San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans is a hot name for a Head Coaching role next season. It would be the third consecutive season a Niners coordinator was given a promotion. One thing we don’t talk enough about is how limp Seattle has been in this area. They have not added quality coaches with the talent and upside to progress through the ranks for many a year. There has been, however, some nepotism and cronyism. Admittedly they’ve also gone outside of the Carroll comfort zone to get Shane Waldron and Shaun Desai and credit to them for being prepared to do that. They need to keep looking though because the Niners are churning out candidates, the Rams have churned out candidates and the Seahawks have been badly lacking for some time. It appears they need more talent on their staff.

5. For all the talk of needing more talent on defense, here’s a quick reminder. Jordyn Brooks and LJ Collier were first round picks. Darrell Taylor and Boye Mafe were second round picks. Cody Barton is a third round pick. They paid to retain Poona Ford and Bryan Mone and Ford has the biggest cap-hit on the team this year. Uchenna Nwosu is the most expensive outside free agent they’ve ever signed. They re-signed Al Woods and brought back Quinton Jefferson. Next year, Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs are set to account for $36m of Seattle’s cap space. Nwosu and Shelby Harris combine for $25m. This is a defense that has been built and frankly, resources have been squandered. That should be remembered as we discuss whether this is just a situation that can be fixed by these decision makers simply adding more players. They need to do a much better job than they have been doing.

6. I feel like, as a fanbase, we’re on the brink of entering a really crap debate. I’m seeing it on Twitter today. It’s becoming ‘team draft a QB’ vs ‘team draft defense’. Here’s a suggestion — keep your options open. If they see a quarterback they love in this class, of course they should consider it — even if their intention is to re-sign Geno Smith. There’s nothing wrong with investing in that position and keeping Smith. If they love one of these QB’s, nobody should criticise them for taking that player. Equally if they aren’t enamoured with the early first round QB options and love a defensive talent — that’s fine too. Avoid a braincell-killing debate and just keep an open mind. There’s no right or wrong pick — QB or defense. Both are fine.

7. With the way the Seahawks are playing it’s hard to imagine them beating the Niners or Chiefs. Any given Sunday (or Thursday) and all that but if they lose both, they’ll be 7-8. Both the Jets and Rams games are winnable but the Jets are competing for the playoffs and the Rams seem determined to finish on a high despite their injuries. My prediction is they lose the next two and I think they win at least one of the Jets or Rams games to finish the season on a small high. The Lions have a reasonably favourable final four games (Jets, Panthers, Bears, Packers) and I think they’ll make the playoffs — meaning it’ll be one spot for the Seahawks, Giants and Commanders. Really, none of that trio belong in the playoffs — making a mockery of the nonsensical ‘seventh seed’ back-door qualifier which should be scrapped ASAP (but won’t be).

8. I don’t study every team of course — but is there another team with such a clearly defined preference on what they want their identity to be — but so consistently dip in and out of actually owning such an identity?

9. When you have a problem as serious as failing to stop the run — plus an inability to run the ball effectively yourselves — and these aspects are critical to your identity — when do some serious questions need to be asked about the total inability to scheme around such weaknesses to even limit the damage (or improve your situation) on even a minor level? Especially when you’re struggling against some of the weaker teams in the league?