Well, it was nice while it lasted.

A four-game winning streak provided a month of excitement. The Seahawks were the feel-good story of the league. Geno Smith was being talked about as a possible MVP candidate. The defense appeared fixed.

Could they win the NFC West? Were they even in a rebuild any more?

It turns out — yes they are. Very much so.

But it goes far beyond the need to keep adding talent.

The Seahawks defense has been a shambles for weeks now, returning to the early season disaster zone it was showing to be. It raises all sorts of questions about the future.

For example — if you’re going to build a defense, are you best adding talent to fit this particular scheme? If this is the wrong plan, will you make the situation worse doubling-down on a bad system?

For weeks now, despite the glaring problem and the very clear need to fix it, teams just run on the Seahawks with ease. You can’t keep playing this way. It can’t be this easy for a team to come to Seattle — especially a team like the Panthers — and ram it down your throat.

The Seahawks look brittle, finesse and soft. They have done since Germany. Look at the last couple of drives by Carolina. A 10-play, 74-yard churn including 68 rushing yards that took 5:26 off the clock in the fourth quarter, ending in a touchdown.

Then, to finish things, Carolina ran all over Seattle to allow time to expire.

They ran for 223 yards despite having a very unexciting passing game to balance things out.

On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks can’t run the ball themselves. Sure, the injuries didn’t help this week. But what about previous weeks when Ken Walker was healthy?

Pete Carroll’s philosophy is completely broken if you can’t run the ball or defend the run. It’s a broken formula that creates what we’re seeing currently. A mess.

It gets worse. The Seahawks are now 3-3 at home this season. Since 2018, they are 23-15 at home. That’s a problem that still warrants a broader question. Why has one of the previously most difficult venues to come and play in, actually become quite a welcoming stopover for many teams?

Amid all the relentless ‘pay Geno Smith’ talk on Twitter, a game today is why you wait it out. Games with multiple interceptions won’t help his marketing pitch. Yes, there’s a lot on his plate at the moment with the defense being dreadful and no running game. If you want to be a $30m man, however, you’ve got to find a way at home against the Panthers.

The Seahawks, as we’ve talked about quite a bit, have money tied to players next year who aren’t getting it done. Case in point, Quandre Diggs — who has an $18m cap hit in 2022. How can you justify that? Yet if they move on, they just start collecting dead money again. A habit that has been way too prevalent in recent years.

There’s a lot to do here. The 2022 draft class was a nice start to a major rebuild. The four-game winning streak occupied our minds for a while. This arse kicking was an embarrassment that exposed many warts. It hints that a back-door playoff run would simply spoil draft position — which is back on the menu as the priority with games like this.

We were hoping the Seahawks might be pushing forward, as the Lions are currently doing. Instead, they are regressing badly.

Making the matter all the more worse was Fox constantly advertising the World Cup semi-finals.

Hey, at least Denver lost and Seattle currently owns the #2 pick as a consequence. The way they competed against the Chiefs, however, suggests that might only be a temporary benefit.

If you’ve enjoyed the work and want to support the blog so that I can consider options for the pre-draft coverage in the new year, please consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. Apologies for the late posting, I had a rough Saturday night with England losing. After the game today tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel

The Seahawks need to look at this game as an end of one segment and the beginning of another.  Why?

This game finishes a tough quarter for the team.  After badly disappointing losses in Germany against Tampa and in Seattle hosting the Raiders, they went to Los Angeles and handled the Rams to give themselves a chance to split the quarter at 2-2 with a win this week against the Panthers.

It also starts the stretch run in which the Seahawks have four of their last five games at home.

In the old days, that was a big advantage.  The Seahawks were nearly unbeatable at home.  In recent years they have faltered.  They are 17-13 at home since 2019 and were a Pete Carrol-era worst 3-5 last year.

It is time to reclaim that identity and it starts on Sunday.  Can they do it?

That depends on if they can defeat the same opponent that they have been playing for the last three weeks.  What do I mean by that?

The Panthers are oddly similar to Tampa, Las Vegas and the Rams.  Consider:

• They are playing better than their record indicates and should not be taken lightly 
• They have an underrated running game the Seahawks will have to contend with
• Their quarterback position is not having the best season, but he can be effective if not bothered by the pass rush
• They have a defense you can move the ball and score on but has some dangerous players that can flip the game if you are not careful

One last factor has nothing to do with who they are playing:  With all due respect to their opponents so far this quarter, the Seahawks are just as responsible for their losses as the other teams are for their wins.  They have struggled with their own standards for good play, particularly on their defensive line.  

In the last three games, the Seahawks have had only five sacks, fourteen quarterback pressures and have given up 615 rushing yards.  That performance has led to them conceding an average of 28 per game.

Those numbers are unacceptable.  And in view of what the defense accomplished earlier in the season, are greatly due to their own poor game planning, coaching and play on the field.  

They can and must do better.  It must start Sunday against Carolina if they are to build up some momentum as they push to make the playoffs.

As they have a similar opponent, the Watch Points will not be too unfamiliar to regular readers.  

We will start with looking at where most games are won or lost – in the trenches.

The Panthers have won two of their last three, sandwiching wins against Atlanta and Denver around a loss to the Ravens.

What has been the difference?  Carolina’s lines on both sides.

The Seahawks Must Get Better Play from the Defensive Line

In their two wins, the Carolina offensive line has conceded only two sacks and a grand total of five pressures.  The team also gained 417 yards on the ground.  

Their loss to Baltimore?  Four sacks, seven pressures and only 36 rushing yards.  Baker Mayfield had to carry the offense and threw two interceptions in the loss.  (side note:  36-year-old Calais Campbell recorded a sack by absolutely manhandling Austin Corbett and then accelerating to Mayfield.  It was amazing.)

The Panthers have had a rising offensive line this season.  They are in the top-5 ranked units by PFF in pass protection, and every lineman has a PFF grade above 62.

Last week against a pretty good Broncos defensive front they kept Sam Darnold clean, not allowing a single sack and only allowing three pressures on 19 dropbacks.  The running backs carried the offense with 185 yards.

Now you see why I say this pattern is familiar.  The Seahawks have been unable to either stop the run or consistently bring pressure on the quarterback in recent weeks.  The Panthers controlled the line of scrimmage on offense and it showed.  

Do not let the Panthers’ coaching change or the revolving door at quarterback lull you into a false sense of confidence that this team is in shambles.  They are doing the best thing a team in their state can do:  running the ball a lot, protecting the quarterback and avoiding mistakes.  The defensive line has a tall task on Sunday.

D’Onta Foreman has been performing nicely for the Panthers since they traded Christian McCaffrey.  He is averaging 18 carries for 83 yards for a nice 4.59 yards per carry and .80 touchdowns in the span.  To give you a gauge, that is roughly what Dalvin Cook is averaging this year over 12 games.

Foreman has demonstrated a great vision in finding holes to run through.  He reminds me of Josh Jacobs in a way.  Even when he is contained, he still falls forward for three or four yards.  And when he finds an open lane, look out.  He is going to pick up some yards.

The challenge is, while he can run between the tackles effectively, his best runs this year have been exploiting the edges, an area where the Seahawks have been very poor.  Last week against the Rams, Sean McVay attacked Bruce Irvin on the right side mercilessly.  Irvin was frequently unable to establish the edge as he was either out of position or outmuscled by a blocker.

The Panther offense is not as creative as the Rams’ is – not many can say they are – but they have a more direct approach to running.  ‘This is what we’re going to do, and we’re going to move you out of our way.’  The defensive line needs better scheming and better play Sunday.  Success in the running game plays right into the Panthers’ success:  It eats the clock up, keeps Sam Darnold from having to carry more than he is capable of, the Panther pass rushers rested and the Seahawks’ explosive offensive players off the field.

It is critical that the Seahawks’ front seven play better Sunday.  Putting pressure on Sam Darnold to carry the offense will be job number one.

The Seahawks’ offensive line faces a similar task.

The Offensive Linemen Need to Control the Line of Scrimmage

In those two Panther wins, their defense recorded eight sacks and 29 pressures.  Their loss?  They did sack Lamar Jackson three times but only had four pressures.  Jackson was 24 for 33 but his receivers dropped five balls.  The point being, the passing game was not largely affected by the pass rush, as Jackson had enough time to go 29 for 33 in passing.

Brian Burns stands as a great young pass rusher with ten sacks so far this season.  Both offensive tackles will have to be sharp in order to keep him from wrecking the Seahawks’ plans on offense.

Derrick Brown is coming into his own as a run-stopping force in the middle.  He is sporting a very robust 85.5 PFF grade, and is sixth in the NFL in tackles for interior linemen with 50.  Austin Blythe and the guards will have their hands full trying to keep him in check.

And yet, there is a yin-and-yang quality to this defense.  Burns is a great pass-rusher and that is very impactful.  But he has yet to round out his game, as he has not been able to attain at least a 70 PFF score on a season.  He is still learning when to explode up the field and when to read the play and stay home and help in the running game.

And Brown?  He has provided disruption for other players but has really yet to reach the pass rush plateau he projected as the #7 overall pick in 2020.  He has only one sack and ten pressures this year.

Further:  Those two weeks where they won games and were rushing the passer well?  They gave up 259 rushing yards on 44 attempts for an ugly 5.88 yards per carry average.

On a season level, they are in the bottom ten for sacks and pressures, and have conceded 100 yards rushing in every game except two.

This defense is a work in progress, and there is a formula to having offensive success against them.

It does start with the boys up front.  You can look at stats for a year stretch and a three-game stretch and project all you like.  But in the moment, those things melt away when you are lining up across these two talented players.  The whole line will need to execute to keep them from severely altering your offensive game plan.

But it is also up to the Shane Waldron and the staff to unlock that formula.

Use the Offense to Control the Game

This is not a new topic.  The defense has been wanting this year, while the offense most often has been the one to propel the team forward.

Absent a much better performance from the defense on Sunday, it will fall on the offense once again to deliver a win for the team.

They have done incredibly well this year, and yet at times because of the defense, we find ourselves needing just a tad bit more.  A turnover here, a penalty there, or a lack of a consistent run game that we are used to can be the difference in a tough game like this.  Their execution will need to be on point.

Geno Smith has reached the point where surprise at his excellent performance on the field has morphed into consistent high expectations.  Fans already anticipate another 70% completion game where Smith spreads the ball all around the field.  Last week he took another step forward, answering the ‘but he has not led a game-winning fourth quarter drive yet’ concern decisively.

This week?  As all players know, past successes need to be relegated to the background of their mind and proper focus needs to be placed on the task at hand.

He will need to execute Waldron’s gameplan at a high level once again.  This week, it may mean picking up the slack for a run game that cannot get untracked, or making a quicker decision than he would like because a pass rusher is in his face.

It may mean targeting C.J. Henderson, who is allowing a 76.8% completion rate and a 110 QB rating, as opposed to rising star Jaycee Horn (51.2% completion and 48 QB rating).  Or it may mean trusting his wide receivers when Horn is covering them and making accurate throws that give them a shot.

There will be a balance that is needed, one quality that Geno and the offense have excelled at so far.  Using the tight ends, the run game and taking shots to the wide receivers for big plays will all be needed to be sprinkled into the game liberally.  A ‘let’s play conservative and see how the game unfolds’ approach the Seahawks have at times deployed will not be the easiest path to success.

The Seahawks need to take the field and clearly demonstrate why they are stretching forward to the playoffs while the Panthers are once again looking forward to the draft next year.  A 14-0 lead early in the game would be just what the doctor ordered.  It would take the Panther offense out of their comfort zone and help the defense pin their ears back and get aggressive with some sacks or forcing some turnovers.

There is potential that this game could propel them into their Thursday night matchup against San Francisco with gusto.  They will need all the momentum they can muster if they are to contend for the NFC West division title.  A win on Sunday could be the start of something big.

Further to my point earlier in the week about how people view the quarterback class, I wanted to raise another point.

I’m seeing a lot of weird and wonderful projections at the moment regarding Florida’s Anthony Richardson. The thought of him lasting into round two seems a bit fanciful to me — but we’ve been here before.

For some reason the mainstream media consistently struggles with the unpolished or players that emerge without years of limelight games in college football.

If you play for Alabama for two or three years (see: Tua Tagovailoa, Bryce Young) then a lot of possible flaws will be overlooked. In other cases — extreme talent will be dismissed as ‘raw’ or ‘needing a lot of work’.

There are two glaring examples of this.

Whatever you think of Kyler Murray today — it was clear at Oklahoma that he was a special player. He did things we haven’t seen other players do. His talent was, frankly, outrageous. He was an outstanding playmaker with arm talent, creativity, scrambling dynamism and he was destined to be a very high pick.

The mainstream media instead focused on the potential of him playing baseball for longer than was necessary and when he eventually committed to football, it was the norm to see him being mocked in the late first or early second round.

In this article, Mel Kiper had him listed below a cluster of other quarterbacks — including Ryan Finley and Jarrett Stidham.

He was picked in the first round in the MLB draft and got a $4.6 million signing bonus with the Oakland Athletics. The reason Murray is on this list? There’s at least a small chance that he tries to play both sports or gives up baseball for football. If he commits to football — and gives up that guaranteed money from the A’s — McShay believes he will be a first-round pick, while Kiper thinks he’d go on Day 2 in April. Murray is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback, but his true height is an issue for football. Not so much on the baseball diamond.

It soon became very clear that Murray was going to the Cardinals with the #1 pick and the media changed its tune. Kiper was not alone, however, in projecting Murray to the second round.

There’s an even more glaring example.

Patrick Mahomes wasn’t even listed in Daniel Jeremiah’s top-50 prospects in his February list ahead of the 2017 draft. That wouldn’t be so bad — but in an updated version in April, Mahomes still wasn’t listed in the top-50.

Deshone Kizer, however, was ranked on both occasions.

In Jeremiah’s April 2017 mock draft, he eventually did include Mahomes in round one — at #27 overall. Deshaun Watson wasn’t included in the first frame. They ended up being the #10 and #12 picks respectively.

Mahomes himself revealed he was given a second round grade by the draft committee.

The excellent Lance Zierlein graded Mahomes at a 6.30 — a lower grade than Drew Lock (6.40). In his report, Zierlein noted:

Mahomes will be a work in progress, but he’s a high ceiling, low floor prospect.

Which, funnily enough, is exactly what is being said about Anthony Richardson.

None of this means Richardson is guaranteed to go in the top-10 as I suspect he will. It definitely doesn’t mean he’ll go first overall — which I think is a possibility.

What it does show, however, is that the mainstream media has previous with underrating extreme potential due to a perception of players being ‘raw’ or simply not being seen as ‘big names’ in college football for long enough to earn some hype. The evidence, in fact, shows that teams are prepared to invest in players with a big upside. Especially at the most important position in the sport.

If you’ve enjoyed the work and want to support the blog so that I can consider options for the pre-draft coverage in the new year, please consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

“That won’t happen”

The immortal words uttered every year at this time, whenever anyone dares to think outside of the box relating to the draft.

The truth is there isn’t an obvious #1 overall pick for 2023. There’s no Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck. There’s no Myles Garrett. It’s a wide open, fluid situation — just as it was this year.

Travon Walker was not even being discussed as a potential top pick 12 months ago. He finished his final season at Georgia (the National Champions) with six sacks. He only recorded 9.5 sacks in his three-year college career.

If you suggested last December that he was destined to go first overall, people would’ve scoffed at the suggestion.

Many pundits liked him but he wasn’t even a consensus top-10 pick. He was #15 on Daniel Jeremiah’s first top-50 board, published in January. Mel Kiper mocked him at #24 in his first mock draft. It wasn’t until the combine that people even started to consider he might go in the top-five.

I don’t think anyone’s going to make a rise quite like that in 2023 but there are a cluster of potential #1 overall picks and it’s to be determined who are the serious contenders for the top pick.

Group think is rampant among the NFL Draft community. It’s not surprising either. The overwhelming majority of people don’t have the time to watch the necessary amount of tape to get a proper angle on a draft class.

As such, people copy the opinions that are widespread. Especially now that we’re entering a period where draft articles get a lot of traction, in particular mock drafts. Journalists who have watched little or no tape and simple peruse the content online will begin to talk about options for the teams they cover.

I am not for a second claiming I have all the answers, as I don’t. But I do watch tape every day, including for several hours every weekend. I embrace this is all very geeky.

The amount of time I spend watching players is equal to that of a full-time job. It’s a gruelling commitment and you have to love doing it, especially when you already have a full-time job and family commitments. You also need a saintly wife who is supportive and laid back about a husband’s nonsensical obsession.

If you don’t have time to watch hours and hours of tape every week — and you are writing articles or mock drafts — of course you’re going to resort to the consensus. It’s understandable. But does it achieve anything other than to drive a false narrative?

Plenty of people rely on big name pundits for their info. That in itself is problematic. I don’t want to pile on Daniel Jeremiah but he provides the best example. He published a top-50 prospects article on NFL.com before the 2021 Senior Bowl which didn’t include big-name prospect Boye Mafe. He then attended the Senior Bowl, broadcasting daily for the NFL Network. The week after the Senior Bowl, he tweeted he’d watched Mafe tape after an impressive showing in Mobile and decided he was a first round talent.

This begs a lot of questions. Why is Jeremiah publishing a top-50 board if he hasn’t even extended his study to someone as well known as Mafe? Why isn’t he studying Mafe’s tape before going to Mobile, given he was one of the biggest name players attending the Senior Bowl and Jeremiah was providing commentary on the event? How much tape study does Jeremiah actually do during the college football season when these players are providing weekly showcases of their talent?

Is it unfair to expert a leading draft expert to actually have a firm grasp of the big name prospects before the draft season begins?

There’s a consensus view that the affable and charismatic Jeremiah is a leading voice on the draft and his opinions are often taken as gospel. I thought the Mafe situation, though, was illuminating.

I suppose the point of this opening ramble is to make a plea to keep an open mind. When I write that I think Jalen Carter, Anthony Richardson or Will Levis could be the #1 pick — it’s not an attempt to be dramatic. It’s based on a humungous study of this class and league trends. It will go against the mainstream consensus but it doesn’t mean it won’t happen. We’ve been here before — talking about how Kyler Murray would go first overall when the mainstream thought he’d stick to baseball or be a late first rounder, or projecting Joe Burrow #1 when the world was still fixated on Justin Herbert and ‘Tank for Tua’.

I would encourage everyone to do their own research and come to your own conclusions. I hope this blog mainly just gives you some names to seek out. I’d also stress to think outside of the box. The consensus view online often isn’t how things end up playing out.

Moving on…

Georgia’s comfortable win over LSU was quite an interesting game to follow. Jalen Carter was typically disruptive — again showing off his ability to win with an electric rip/swim or just blow through blocks with sheer power.

Carter has everything needed to be a highly disruptive interior force. These types of players are increasingly rare. At times he reminds me of a shorter Calais Campbell at his peak. He has positional flexibility and can play across the line. You can move him around to attack from different angles.

It won’t be a surprise if he is graded higher than anyone else come draft time — or possibly second only in terms of pure talent to Bijan Robinson. That will squarely put him in the #1 overall pick equation. These types of players don’t come along very often and if the Texans are not completely sold on the QB class — they might opt for a more long-term view. After all, their roster is a shambles. They could decide to start their next era — presumably with a new coach (and maybe a new GM) by building up their defense. Especially if they fall for Carter — which is possible.

If he doesn’t go first overall, he will leave the board as soon as a team not in need of a quarterback is on the clock. If Chicago sticks at #2 overall, they will take him. He is a better prospect than Will Anderson and will be the first non-QB drafted, short of any unexpected injury or character flags.

That’s not to say he’s a flawless player. I do think there are a couple of quibbles. LSU moved the ball effectively early in the SEC Championship and kept Georgia’s defense on the field. Carter looked absolutely knackered after the first series. I did wonder a little bit about his conditioning but in fairness after a breather (and when Georgia’s offense started to dominate) he came roaring back. It might be, however, that he needs a bit of time to get up to speed with the physical demands of the NFL — something that isn’t unusual for bigger defenders.

There’s also some inconsistency to his game and he does take some snaps off. It’s not a massive issue, just something worth pointing out. In college he is a better athlete than most of his opponents. When that isn’t the case in the NFL, he’ll need to become more rounded and find a base level of performance and effort. That’s not a reason not to take him though, you work on that when he’s in the building.

He was constantly disruptive against LSU and will go in the top-two, I think. Unlike Will Anderson — who has had an underwhelming season, lacks great size and is more of a developmental project — he is a player teams will believe is ready to come and have an impact immediately.

Two other quick comments on Georgia players. Safety Chris Smith — a fine player — had a heads-up play to return a field goal for a touchdown. He also had a bit of a whiff on a Kayshon Boutte touchdown — making up for it later on with a nice interception.

Cornerback Kelee Ringo continues to misjudge throws and doesn’t track the ball consistently enough. While he’s a superb athlete with great size — he simply isn’t a great cornerback at the moment. Is he too big? He makes some good plays but gets beaten on others. He’s a real mystery for the next level and it’s tricky to judge his stock.

I also watched the ACC Championship game in what proved to be a bit of a damp squib as a contest. However, despite Clemson dominating North Carolina, I thought it was another majorly disappointing showing by the Tigers’ vaunted D-line.

I just don’t get why nobody is talking about Myles Murphy’s underwhelming play? Yes he’s a good athlete and has decent size. That’s fine. He plays with almost no aggression though. I’ve said it numerous times — he’s a pussycat defending the run and he’s hardly a ‘hair on fire’ dynamic pass rusher either.

Murphy finishes the season with 6.5 sacks in 13 games. That’s it. He had eight sacks in ten games last season, so his production has actually gone down. He also has three fewer TFL’s than last year (11 vs 14.5). It was embarrassing watching him get his arse kicked by Notre Dame a few weeks ago and he’s not had a bounce-back performance since. I’ve watched all of his 2022 games and just came away underwhelmed.

I think there’s a legit fear that he’s a big-time recruit who has found High School easy because of his physical profile and in college he’s also athletic enough to get by. At the next level, he’s going to need to show so much more. His body lacks muscle definition and he just gives off a vibe of never really having to work at his craft. That ends the minute he comes into the NFL. Teams will need to believe he is prepared to go above and beyond to become great because to me he just seems like an athlete at the moment, not a football player.

His team mate K.J. Henry has been far more aggressive, consistent and disruptive this season.

Meanwhile, Bryan Bresee continues to be spelled constantly. I will say, he had a few impactful snaps against North Carolina. Some of the aggression, power and speed that Bresee clearly has jumped off the screen as he barged his way into the backfield. The flashes he showed reminded me why I initially had him rated higher than Jalen Carter at the start of the season. Bresee clearly has talent.

The problem is he hasn’t put together an actual season. A year ago he suffered an ACL injury. This year he had the sad passing of his younger sister, a kidney problem and then strep throat — all of which kept him off the field or stuck in a rotational role.

Bresee makes for a really difficult projection. I can well imagine him having better fortune in the pro’s and just shining as a dominant player. In High School, as I’ve said a few times, he had the Jadeveon Clowney vibe of looking like an adult playing against kids. You even see some of that in college at times. Bresee’s physical talent is freakishly impressive.

He might last on the board into the teens and be the steal of the class. Or he might never be able to stay healthy or find the consistency that will elevate him to elite status.

Bresee will potentially split opinion in draft rooms around the league because knowing the right range to take a chance on him will be a tricky square to circle. The talent is clear. If only he’d had a good solid ten-game run to feel confident he can stay healthy, productive and consistent.

The Clemson defenders are so much of a challenge this year. Everyone loves Trenton Simpson but he had a poor college season, failed to make enough plays and aside from his expected testing results, has not performed like a first round talent. The aforementioned K.J. Henry has been really active and is a former five-star recruit who is seen as an emotional leader on the defense. However, he only finished the season with 3.5 sacks and nine TFL’s despite looking disruptive all year. Is he enough of a finisher? Or do you buy-in based on the disruption?

I do really like Clemson left tackle Jordan McFadden as a guard convert. He has the size of a guard but has played well at tackle. I think he’s a top-50 talent pre-testing.

If you’ve enjoyed the work and want to support the blog so that I can consider options for the pre-draft coverage in the new year, please consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

Earlier today Anthony Richardson confirmed what Tony Pauline has been reporting for several weeks — that he is going pro and declaring for the 2023 draft.

The response on the internet has been predictable because the narrative on Richardson has been set in stone for a long time.

“He’s too raw”

“He’s not ready”

“He needed to go back for another year”

Too many people, particularly in the mainstream media, seemed to make their mind up about Richardson three games into the season as he struggled against Kentucky and USF (having excelled against Utah in week one).

I’ve watched every game he’s played for Florida, just as I’ve watched every game for each of the top quarterbacks in the 2023 draft.

I’m not going to try and argue that Richardson doesn’t have room to grow or clear areas where he can improve. It’s not unfair to say he would’ve benefited from another year at Florida. I don’t think the inaccurate throws he’s had this season are down to serious technical flaws. I suspect it’s just about game experience, timing and getting comfortable with playing the sport at a high level.

Plenty of the other big names have their own flaws and concerns that aren’t talked about as often. Bryce Young’s unique size (5-10, 185lbs) for example or C.J. Stroud’s intermediate accuracy and dependency on the talent and scheme at Ohio State. Those kinds of issues. They come up — but not at the same rate as ‘Richardson’s too raw’.

What he lacks in experience he makes up for with extreme physical brilliance — the kind that we’ve only seen with the likes of Josh Allen in recent history. That’s not to say it’s an apples for apples comparison. For example, Richardson is an even better runner.

Here’s what he’s capable of:

HOLY PUMP FAKE ANTHONY RICHARDSONpic.twitter.com/g0XwwWcUAM

— uSTADIUM uNIVERSITY (@uSTADIUMCollege) September 4, 2022

Anthony Richardson is such an interesting prospect. But regardless of any shortcomings he works through, he puts a tonnnnn of high-level stuff on tape.

Like sliding away from the slant, feeling out pressure, and aligning his front shoulder and feet in sync with his eyes. pic.twitter.com/YtjJlkdinz

— Cory (@realcorykinnan) December 3, 2022

Exhibit A (well..Exhibit Q for how many I have already seen from Anthony Richardson) pic.twitter.com/n90wvdWCTs

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2022

The declaration of Florida QB Anthony Richardson for the 2023 #NFLDraft is so interesting. Freak physical talent (w/ arm + legs) that only really started 1 season and has a lot to work on all while putting up similar numbers to Will Levis. Can do this: pic.twitter.com/EF9QbXsdGr

— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) December 5, 2022

Not only that — he’s actually played in a system (unlike at Ohio State, Tennessee and Washington etc) where he’s required to make protection calls, adjustments and play in something akin to a pro-style scheme.

We get into the habit of forgetting how other players entered the NFL in a similar, rough-diamond state. I’ve posted this a few times over the last few months and it’s worth another review:

— In Patrick Mahomes’ final year at Texas Tech he had a run of six straight games with an interception. He lost seven games in 2016. He had 25 interceptions in his final two seasons in college.

— In Andrew Luck’s final year at Stanford he ended with a run of six straight games with an interception. He lost two games in his final year despite playing on a loaded Stanford team. He had eight games with 256 passing yards or fewer.

— Josh Allen had 21 interceptions in his final two years in college. He had a completion percentage of just 56.3%. He had three games in 2017 with sub-100 passing yards and he started his final season with six picks in his first seven games.

— Russell Wilson had 25 interceptions in his final two years at NC State. He never had a completion percentage above 60% at NC State. He had 11 games at Wisconsin where he threw 255 yards or fewer — including six sub-200 yard games. He also lost three games in his final season at Wisconsin.

Essentially, some of the highest rated players in the NFL today and in the recent past had problems with turnovers, consistency and needed to improve at the next level. You can add to this list too. Justin Herbert never truly delivered at Oregon while stuck in Mario Cristobal’s wretched offense. Who thought anything of Joe Burrow when he flopped at Ohio State and landed at LSU, where he got to throw to Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson? Jalen Hurts was benched for Tua Tagovailoa and had to transfer.

Richardson needs work but so does every quarterback who enters the league. Even golden-child-status players such as Trevor Lawrence.

None of them are the finished article.

As such, teams are left to play the percentages. Who is best prepared for the next step in terms of football education (not reliant on being over-coached or coddled by scheme)? Who has the physical tools to be among the best in the league? Who is elevating their team, versus riding the coat-tails of great recruitment?

Richardson made a badly rebuilding Florida watchable at times this year and didn’t get the creature comforts available at other schools.

He isn’t alone. For some reason people are increasingly tone deaf about the benefit of certain schemes and environments. It’s the big argument nobody is prepared to make for Will Levis — who didn’t get a wide-open, half-field read scheme with either great pass-pro, receivers or a system designed to get the ball out quickly.

Here’s an updated list of the sacks given up by each team in college football possessing a big name QB:

Oregon — 4 sacks in 12 games (0.33 per game)
Georgia — 7 sacks in 13 games (0.54 per game)
Washington — 7 sacks in 12 games (0.58 per game)
Ohio State — 8 sacks in 12 games (0.67 per game)
Florida — 12 sacks in 12 games (1.00 per game)
Alabama — 20 sacks in 12 games (1.67 per game)
Tennessee — 23 sacks in 12 games (1.92 per game)
Kentucky — 42 sacks in 12 games (3.50 per game)

As you can see — who you play for (and with) matters.

Florida had no dynamic weapons destined for the first two rounds of the 2023 draft. They aren’t supported by a great defense. The cupboard is bare as they start to build under a new coach.

Despite all of that they’ve had a quarterback who has being throwing 60-yard touchdown bombs and then a series or two later running an 80-yard scramble for a score. They’ve had a quarterback being clobbered in the pocket, somehow staying on his feet and delivering a pass. They’ve had a quarterback able to keep them in games, striving to compete and looking every bit the superstar in the making — just with some inconsistent play mixed in to temper the hype.

Statistically he has 26 total touchdowns and nine interceptions. Let’s compare that to three others praised for their production:

C.J. Stroud — 37 touchdowns, six interceptions
Bryce Young — 31 touchdowns, five interceptions
Michael Penix Jr — 33 touchdowns — seven interceptions

These three get a lot more hype than Richardson online. All have far better environments to play in. Stroud and Penix Jr play in schemes that are favourable with better weapons and you can see the sack numbers above.

Put Richardson in a different situation and I think his numbers would be even better. I am not convinced Stroud, Young or Penix Jr would’ve succeeded at Florida this year.

As the process goes on — and I’ve been saying this for a few weeks — I think there’s a chance the NFL will fall in love with Richardson’s potential and he could go #1 overall. He has by far the biggest upside of the quarterbacks at a time where players like Josh Allen are the talk of the town.

Ideally he goes somewhere and sits for a year behind an experienced QB — just as Mahomes did behind Alex Smith. It shouldn’t be a surprise, however, if someone throws him in at the deep end as Buffalo did with Allen and they just endure two years of growing pains.

But what about the Seahawks?

They currently have the #3 pick courtesy of Denver — behind only Houston and Chicago.

It’s hard to imagine they go any higher than #3. The Texans are clearly the worst team in the league. The Bears play the Eagles, Bills, Lions and Vikings to finish the season and will probably lose-out.

Again — having studied this draft class extensively — I think there’s a chance Houston takes Jalen Carter with the top pick. Increasingly he looks like that rare thing — a disruptive interior pass rusher. They have a second high pick courtesy of Cleveland and might be prepared to wait on a QB, trade up or even skip until next year. This is clearly a long process for the Texans and they have a shell of a roster.

The Bears will go defense. This will be Carter’s floor barring anything unforeseen and it’s the likely landing spot for Will Anderson if the Texans take the defensive tackle.

You can make a strong argument for Carter or Anderson to Seattle. I see no realistic prospect of Carter reaching the Seahawks — which is a shame given his ideal fit status. Anderson is far more of a project than people think. He’s not a Bosa brother or Myles Garrett. He is a 245lbs DE/OLB and given how poorly Seattle has utilised those players (apart from Uchenna Nwosu) there has to be some worry that he’d simply get caught in the wash as we’re seeing with Darrell Taylor and Boye Mafe — two other young players deemed to have a lot of potential.

The rest of the pass rushers are overrated. Myles Murphy is an athletic pussycat and Bryan Bresee hasn’t played enough. Tyree Wilson is intriguing but you don’t want to go down that road at #3 ideally.

If Carter is gone — or Carter and Anderson — or even if they’re not, a quarterback should still be considered.

It’s fantastic that Geno Smith is playing so well and the Seahawks will try to keep him. We also need to be realistic about a player who turns 33 next year and has, so far, enjoyed one good season in his NFL career. The Seahawks will view picking as high as #3 a bonus. A gift from Denver. It won’t be anything they intend to do again any time soon.

For that reason, it would be sensible to consider re-signing Smith and adding a quarterback with immense potential who can learn and develop in the background. It would be the same as Smith/Mahomes — a plan that we can all agree has worked rather well.

It’s also worth saying given all the reported interest John Schneider supposedly had in Mahomes and Allen — Richardson shares some physical similarities.

I’m quite comfortable with either situation. If they add a defensive player to improve a terribly performing unit, that’s a good plan. If they invest in a quarterback, that’s also a good plan.

One other thing to consider is that with only $29.9m in effective cap space for 2023 — the Seahawks simply might be priced out of the Geno Smith market if he receives good offers from other teams. I’m not convinced he will do but I suppose Nick Foles parlayed his Super Bowl run into a hefty four-year contract worth $88m with the Jaguars — including $50m guaranteed. That was also in 2019 — the financial situation has improved dramatically since then.

Smith probably isn’t going to win Super Bowl MVP to max-out his market like Foles. However, it’s not totally unrealistic that needy teams (Washington, Atlanta, Houston, Indianapolis, the Jets) might swoop in and make the situation tricky (and expensive). In that instance, we’ll be having a very different conversation.

Either way — I think drafting Anthony Richardson to draft and develop should be a strong consideration by this team.

If you’ve enjoyed the work and want to support the blog so that I can consider options for the pre-draft coverage in the new year, please consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. After the game today tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel

The mighty have fallen. The Rams host the Seahawks with a 3-8 record and are on track to be one of the worst teams in NFL history in the season following their championship.

They shockingly have one of the worst offenses this year, standing at 29th in scoring (16.2 ppg), #31 at rushing yards per game and total offensive yards per game.

The defense has not experienced as big a decline as the offense but their aggressiveness has had to be tempered significantly as they have not had big leads to play with nearly as much.

What is happening to this team overall? They have been hammered by injuries.

Their offensive line has been a revolving door this year. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp have also missed significant time and now it appears that even Aaron Donald is not immune as he is set to miss the game Sunday with a high ankle sprain.

Still, if I was a Rams fan, I would be relieved at seeing the Seahawks on their schedule Sunday. They have won eight of the last ten games against Seattle and while you can definitely point to the top talent they have on their team as a big reason, Pete Carroll and the Seahawks have always struggled to mount an effective attack against the Rams in both phases of the game.

The other reason is the Hawks are playing horribly. They have played down to their opponents in losses to Tampa Bay (4-5) and Las Vegas (3-7), particularly on defense. Seattle has simply not been the same since going to Germany.

Pete Carroll has commented that it took the team until Thursday this week to have practices to show him they are up to snuff for this game. It took three days to get over the loss to the Raiders. You are free to interpret that as you like but you should know he made a similar comment about the team after getting manhandled by San Francisco in Week Two and they could not rebound in time to play effectively against the Falcons in Week Three.

How can the Seahawks break out of their slump and beat a division foe that has dogged them for years? Let us have a look at some of the factors.

With the Seahawk defense a mess and the Rams missing many of their core players, there really aren’t too many locked-in patterns or styles to analyze. Just a collection of thoughts the Seahawks need to be aware of on both sides of the ball.

When the Rams Have the Ball

John Wolford will start at quarterback for the Rams on Sunday and the offensive line may roll out a new front five of players yet again due to injuries.

The circumstantial evidence strongly suggests that the Rams will employ a quick-passing and a run heavy approach to this game. That is not a major departure from what the Rams have done in the past, there is just a high likelihood that downfield attacking passes will be in fewer supply than normal.

So, the first thing the Seahawks will need to do is cover Tyler Higbee effectively. Wolford last started the Week Ten game against the Cardinals and Higbee was his top target. He caught all eight of his targeted passes for 73 yards and had one explosive play. Higbee was their offensive catalyst, as Wolford found him on first and second down frequently and gave the Rams a short third down — something every undermanned offense badly needs.

The Seahawks are one of the worst teams in the NFL this year in defending tight ends. They have given up the second-most yards (711) and the fourth-most touchdown passes (6).

For a comparison, Travis Kelce is the leading tight end this year with 912 yards and 12 touchdowns so far. Mark Andrews is the second-best at 601 yards and 5 touchdowns. Therefore, the Seahawks are every week conceding an amount of production from tight ends that rivals the best at their position in the NFL. I seriously doubt the Rams have not noticed that. That needs to stop Sunday if the Seahawks are wanting to keep the Rams offense from moving down the field.

Controlling the line of scrimmage is something you always want to do. Against these Rams though, it is a goal the Seahawks should be able to accomplish. This is something that the numbers just dictate in plain language that they have the ability to do. The Rams are absolutely battered on the line. The Seahawks have their entire complement of linemen available and have shown that they can succeed in this area in the past.

However, their performance lately has been a horrible regression back to the beginning of the year. Quarterbacks have had pillow-soft pockets and time. Running backs have had holes and inexplicably been able to push the pile forward, even when monster-size players like Bryan Mone and Al Woods are in the game.

There is a perception that Tampa Bay modeled how to attack this defensive line in the running game and the Raiders teed off on them. Pete Carroll has insisted he knows what is wrong and is working to correct it. We will see on Sunday.

Cam Akers and Kyren Williams will be running the ball for the Rams. While they are far from the NFL’s best rushing combo (neither have played big roles this year), the Hawks’ front seven really has something to prove. They have given up a whopping 444 yards rushing in their last two games. Nothing should be taken for granted. Scoffing at the Rams’ offensive line backups playing in unfamiliar positions, with a backup quarterback and one of the NFL’s least productive running back duos is a luxury the Seahawks cannot afford.

This game will tell us a lot about whether this coaching staff can get this defense back on track. Two bad games are a slump. Three in a row is a real trend.

Decisions will need to be made in nearly every defensive area this offseason, from the coaching staff to the line, the linebackers and safeties. The data they collect in the last few games will be invaluable to the team as they enter an offseason with two first-round and two second-round picks.

This game is a contest the Seahawks should rightly dominate on defense. The Rams’ offense might be the weakest opponent they will face this year. And yet, with the division familiarity and the Seahawks’ penchant for playing down to their opponent’s level, our faith is not very high that the team can control this game with a tight defensive performance.

When the Seahawks Have the Ball

The offense put up 34 points last week, which should have been enough for a win. However, at key moments they were not able to move the ball to get in position to win the game. It is hard to fault the offense too much when the defense gives up almost 1000 yards in two weeks, though.

Tampa Bay and the Raiders have been effectively able to bottle up the running game, holding the Seahawks to 104 yards in the last two weeks. The Rams are one of the NFL’s best rushing defenses, ranking in the top 5 of the NFL on yards, yards per attempt and rushing touchdowns. It would seem a natural instinct to open up the passing game a bit and “run the ball” with short passes.

I think the Seahawks need to ignore that instinct and employ a healthy amount of runs on Sunday. In their last five games against the Rams they have run for a very respectable 4.48 yards per carry. That magical 100-yard barrier can be obtained if they keep that pace up and only run the ball 23 times on Sunday.

The point is, they have had success running the ball against LA. In Watch Points of weeks past against the Rams I have made this point several times: you can control the Rams if you commit to running the ball. It keeps their offense (and the Seahawk defense) off the field, gets the offense into a rhythm and allows the quarterback the comfort of knowing he is not carrying the entire game on his shoulders.

All the more so with Aaron Donald out for this game. Looking up and down the Rams’ defensive line, there are not a lot of high PFF scores there. Donald has tormented the Seahawks as much as any player has. They are well within their rights to run the ball up the gut, right at the spot Donald would have occupied and make his replacements do his job.

Geno Smith needs to keep doing Geno Smith things. Watch his great drive against the Rams in Week Five last year. Cue the video to 11:00. You will see Smith doing the things he has been doing this year when he is playing well — being decisive, reading the field and giving what the defense gives him and running when he has yards in front of him. The Seahawks need this kind of performance against the Rams to really keep the offense on schedule and put pressure on the Rams’ battered offense to keep up.

One thing of note from that game: The Rams followed the typical protocol when a backup quarterback enters the game. Call off the blitzing dogs and make him read the field and make good decisions. It did not work. Geno carved them up, moving the offense 91 yards in 5 minutes for a touchdown to pull them to within one score.

On the second drive, the Rams picked up their blitzing. Geno was unaffected. He drove them down the field for a field goal.

That is what the Seahawks need from Geno on Sunday. A player that can make decisions, take what his given him and keep control of the game from his spot.

Special Teams Could Decide the Course of This Game

The Seahawks and Rams have a relationship on Special Teams that dictates the coaches of both sides be ready for anything. There have been some wild plays between these two teams.

My favorite might be the Michael Dickson double-punt from last year (9:30 in that highlight video above). That was a tremendous feat of athleticism to scoop the ball with one hand, awareness that he is still behind the line of scrimmage and get a punt away that put the Rams in a hole.

One of the two Seahawks’ wins against the Rams in the last ten games was sealed by a missed field goal try by Greg Zuerlein.

And the Rams have pulled out a fake punt from their bag of tricks last week that got them a first down:

Punter Riley Dixon with the absolute dart! 🎯

📺 @NFLonFOX | 📲 https://t.co/4beUdmlymg pic.twitter.com/onc0wISfD8

— x – Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) November 27, 2022

The Seahawks’ special teams units need to be sharp. The Rams have nothing to lose and they are still dangerous as a division rival. Not many things would make them happier than to win this game without Stafford, Kupp, Donald, etc because somebody fell asleep on special teams coverage.

There were a couple of big takeaways from the South Carolina vs Clemson game. First of all, Clemson’s D-line reminds me of Premier League side Manchester United. Big names, big expectations, lots of hype. Yet they consistently flatter to deceive. I can’t recall a game recently where they dominated. However, that defeat to Notre Dame lives long in the memory where they got their arses kicked in the trenches.

Bryan Bresee continues to be spelled like crazy because of strep throat, Myles Murphy was again missing in action. K.J. Henry is the one who creates the most pressure but he doesn’t finish enough plays with a sack.

Yet if you log onto any draft website you barely ever hear anything negative about Bresee or Murphy. They just get chucked into the early first round and everyone assumes they’re brilliant.

I understand why there’s a chance they’ll both go early. Murphy can reportedly run a 4.5 at 275lbs. Bresee can run a 4.7 at over 300lbs. They are both well sized, fantastic athletes. That can and should be acknowledged. Yet the tape isn’t good. Murphy only has 6.5 sacks for the season despite playing a high number of snaps. I’ve said a hundred times now, I think he plays the run like a pussycat. Bresee has had a difficult year for reasons we’ve discussed in the past — but he’s offered little more than an occasional flash.

So I suppose the question to ask is — for a player like Murphy — why is he suddenly going to turn on the production against NFL linemen, without the advantage of playing next to a loaded, 5-star D-line?

I fear he and Bresee are two players who have simply been far more athletic than anyone else in High School and college and they’ve been able to get by. At the next level, they won’t have the same significant advantage. They’ll need to play with more aggression, better technique and they’ll need to become proper football players. How early are you willing to take a chance on that?

The second takeaway is Spencer Rattler has as much natural talent as anyone in college football. For the second game in a row, after his demolition of Tennessee, he made incredibly difficult throws look easy. The problem is — he continues to have at least one absolutely horrendous decision in him every game. Sometimes, it’s multiple horrendous decisions.

In the Clemson game he threw an awful red zone interception which, at the time, acted like a cold bucket of water over everything else he’d shown to that point. Yet he finished the game strongly.

I hope he returns to South Carolina. Something is brewing there. If he goes back, has a successful season and not just a couple of good games, he can really propel himself back into the NFL discussion. Otherwise you’re still talking about a late day three flier on someone who will essentially be handing NFL teams a two-game résumé.

There are some really nice running backs eligible for 2023 and Kenny McIntosh of Georgia continues to excel. He’s an incredible pass-catching back to go with his tenacious, violent running style. Against Georgia Tech he had a +80 yard reception with a brilliant piece of ball-tracking over his shoulder, before a hefty chunk of YAC down the sideline. He then ran it in for a short-yardage score. He is destined to be a tremendous complementary back at the next level.

I’m really tempted to move Georgia center Sedrick Van Pran to the top of my positional list. He was brilliant again on Saturday. He turned interior linemen to create huge running lanes up the middle. He sprung a massive touchdown run in the fourth quarter by chipping the defensive tackle in a double team with the guard, then progressing to the second level and driving a linebacker off his spot. The running back followed him the whole way for an untouched scoring carry. Van Pran, if he turns pro, will be a high pick in my opinion. I’m not sure what his plans are but he is legitimately someone I think you can make a case for in the top-45.

Anthony Richardson is still being talked about as a raw, unpolished player. I think that is an outdated assessment. He is not the finished article — but who is at this point? Very few players are. While the occasional inaccurate throw still blots his copybook, you’re not drafting a hybrid Josh Allen/Lamar Jackson quarterback to play like Peyton Manning. Whatever he gives up in the occasional miss, he more than makes up for in world class playmaking talent.

Without Richardson I’m not sure how many games Florida would’ve won this year. There’s very little to shout about apart from the quarterback and leading running back. Against Florida State, Richardson was let down by his receivers on several occasions and had to try and desperately keep up with FSU. He had an incredible 3rd and 8 conversion — spinning away from tackles, running through contact to get the yardage. He had some outstanding throws — including one down the seam for a touchdown — but again, some that he missed too. He has amazing potential that just needs to be harnessed. Any coach worth his salt is going to be begging the GM to let him have a crack at Richardson. Especially if you’re willing to be patient with him.

He has 26 total touchdowns and nine interceptions for the year, playing for a rebuilding team in the SEC. Alternatively, C.J. Stroud has the perfect environment to succeed at Ohio State and has 37 total touchdowns and six interceptions. People act like there’s a big difference here but there isn’t.

Before I speak about Bryce Young — a word on Alabama’s Byron Young. Whether he is shooting gaps or just pushing his blocker into the backfield — he is constantly disruptive. He’s so underrated. He’ll not be a big-time playmaker at the next level but he’ll certainly do a job as a 3-4 DE.

Bryce put in a typical Bryce performance. If you can’t pressure him and force him to bail on the pocket, he will sit and pick you apart. He had all the time in the world against Auburn and was able to throw with accuracy, timing and step into downfield throws. It was an easy day and a good showcase for his talent. The thing is, he’ll never get it this easy at the next level. He did throw a dreadful interception over the middle — flat footed, didn’t step into throw, made it easy for the defender to undercut the route. Overall it was a good day but we know what he is by now, strengths and weaknesses. How the NFL judges his size/frame will be a big talking point throughout draft season. As I’ve said a few times — I don’t think anyone is wrong or right about it. If you worry about the frame, that’s valid. If you don’t and would happily take a shot, that is perfectly plausible too.

Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid had another big day (albeit against hapless Colorado). I just get the feeling he’s going to carry on making plays at the next level if he lands in the right offense. He’s quite a talent.

Another tight end, Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer, showed why he should be a top-12 pick with another great performance against USC. He was constantly able to win battles in coverage to make receptions and he had a great TD boxing out a smaller defensive back. He’s a huge red zone weapon, a prolific playmaker and a great safety valve. Mayer is such a consistent, talented player.

Kentucky running back Chris Rodriguez wears #24, says he grew up watching Marshawn Lynch and he runs just like him. He’s so strong, powerful and drives through contact. He would be a great option for Seattle. Rodriguez was so good again against Louisville.

Will Levis also had a decent end to his SEC season, throwing 11/19 for 188 yards and two touchdowns in a key rivalry win. We’ll see if Levis plays in the Bowl game, I would hope he doesn’t given what has happened this season with Kentucky’s O-line. He’s already nursing two injuries and the fact he’s not confirmed for the Senior Bowl yet suggests he might need some surgery or recovery time. Rodriguez has confirmed he’ll be in Mobile.

When I talk about systems and environments giving certain QB’s a big advantage in terms of production, not being sacked and winning — nothing highlighted it better than Tennessee’s win at Vanderbilt. They hammered Vandy — one of the toughest, in-form teams in CFB in recent weeks — despite losing Hendon Hooker to an ACL injury. We all know Ohio State and Alabama will also retain their production next year when their QB’s move on. Ditto Washington. Kentucky and Florida, on the other hand, are going to be in serious trouble. The advantages and disadvantages, experiences and pressure on the different QB’s doesn’t get talked about enough among fans and media. People watch prolific production, pretty (albeit wide-open) throws and jump to conclusions far too often.

This brings me on to Michael Penix Jr, who I like. He has grown on me over time because of his fantastic arm. Without a question, there’s something to work with there. However, I’m reading all this ‘Penix Jr for Heisman’ stuff and people talking on the radio about him being a first round pick and it just gets so frustrating.

Even Pete Carroll was asked on Seattle Sports about Penix Jr this week. His answer, tellingly, highlighted the great scheme he plays within. And there you go. Carroll nailed it with that answer.

When you operate in a half-field, one-read scheme that makes all the calls for you on the sideline and consistently is able to cook up situations where your receivers are wide open, you will have a lot of success. There weren’t many challenging throws for Penix Jr in the Apple Cup. Granted, he can drive the ball in such an attractive way — you can’t help but be impressed. Even a throw to a wide-open receiver can look amazing if delivered with an eye-catching flick of the wrist.

Yet I feel like I keep repeating myself on this — probably in a futile way, given I suspect people who read this blog already get it. At the next level you need to run through progressions, make checks and calls yourself, you need to make quick decisions and deliver precise throws into smaller windows. None of this is evident in the Washington, Ohio State and Tennessee schemes. The quarterbacks are all babied, given advice from the sideline and often just need to look off the safety and throw to the one-read. If everything clicks — you throw to an open guy most of the time. We’ve all seen what happens when it doesn’t because Stroud, Penix Jr and Hooker have all thrown identical interceptions into triple coverage.

Because of Penix Jr’s arm strength, when the scheme puts people downfield in space and he has all the time in the world to throw, it’s easy. This from Monday’s article highlights how much time Penix Jr has in the pocket…

Sacks conceded per-game in 2022:

Oregon — 0.4
Washington — 0.5
Georgia — 0.5
Ohio State — 0.7
Florida — 1.3
Alabama — 1.5
Tennessee — 1.9
Kentucky — 3.5

So if your guys are open and you have all the time in the world to throw and you have a big arm — production is inevitable.

Kudos to Washington for finding a coach in Kalen DeBoer who is essentially their answer to Josh Heupel. It should mean offensively they are productive for years to come, will regularly churn out prolific QB’s and they will have success provided they can deliver a complementary defense. We should be honest and up front about the scheme though and what it does for the quartetback.

Sadly, when Penix Jr has had to go off script and make decisions — we see things like the horrendous red zone interception he had against Washington State. In the NFL he won’t be able to sit there and just lob downfield to players with five yards of separation from a clean pocket. He will have to process and improvise and go through progressions. I’m not sure we have enough on tape to feel confident about that and as such, it tempers his stock. For me — the arm puts him in the third round range but even then he is a project who will need time to learn the ways of the NFL. When he gets a chance, he’ll need to show he can function outside of the college system he benefits from.

Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey and TCU’s Quentin Johnston didn’t play at the weekend due to injury.

And with that, the college football regular season is over. I will share notes on the Championship weekend and then we’re into the Bowls, where most draft prospects will opt to sit out and declare for the NFL.

I hope you’ve found the last 13 weeks useful. I’ve poured my heart into watching tape this year, knowing it was such a big draft in 2023 for the Seahawks. We’re talking 8-10 hours on a Saturday after I finish broadcasting for my day job, then multiple hours on Sunday with follow up study every week night after I finish work.

I’ve always suggested this has been like a second full-time job for me, running this blog. Since the summer it’s been more like a second and third full-time job. I don’t get everything right and never will but I hope it’s provided a decent overview of the draft in advance of the mainstream media arriving on the scene in January to tell you a load of information without any of the September-December groundwork.

If you’ve enjoyed the work and want to support the blog so that I can consider options for the pre-draft coverage in the new year, please consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

This is also available via ‘The Rebuild’ podcast streams

“They need to add a game-wrecker”

I’ve seen people say this a few times since the Raiders game.

If only it were that easy.

This is partly the problem with the draft. If you don’t have intimate knowledge of a class, it’s easy to be swayed by mainstream opinion (which isn’t always reliable).

I’m not convinced there’s an obvious ‘game-wrecker’ in the 2023 group. A player who might be, Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey, is an afterthought among most draft analysts purely due to his size.

Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter is a very good player and has shown game-wrecking potential in a couple of games since returning from injury. I’m not convinced, however, that we’re seeing someone who can crash the interior with consistency to truly ‘wreck games’. Certainly his numbers this year — two sacks and five TFL’s in 10 games — don’t suggest we’re talking about an unstoppable force.

As a point of comparison, Quinnen Williams had eight sacks and 19.5 TFL’s in his final year at Alabama (15 games).

Will Anderson, meanwhile, has endured a mixed season. After taking college football by storm in 2021 he hasn’t been able to rekindle that form this year. He’s had some really rough games, such as the outing at Tennessee where he was manhandled by Darnell Wright.

Teams will spend considerable time working out how a player with an astonishing 31 TFL’s and 17.5 sacks a year ago only has 17 TFL’s and 10 sacks in 2022.

Let’s be clear — those are still good numbers. They are far better than the other, somewhat overrated defensive linemen eligible for the draft. It’s still a reduction though and he hasn’t been the game-wrecking force we saw last season.

We also need to be clear about what Anderson is. He’s listed at 6-4 and 243lbs. That is a lot smaller than your typical game-wrecking EDGE. For example, Joey Bosa is 269lbs. Nick Bosa is 266lbs. Myles Garrett is 272lbs. They are all considerably heavier than Anderson — and his frame looks relatively maxed out already.

The hope has to be that he can be a Von Miller type. The combine, therefore, will be crucial. Miller weighed 246lbs at the 2011 combine and ran a 4.53 forty, a 4.06 short shuttle, a 6.70 three cone and jumped a 37 inch vertical. These are incredible numbers. Anderson will need to emulate Miller to truly warrant the comparison.

He’s still a quality player. Both Carter and Anderson, within this class, deserve to go in the top-five. Either would be a good pick for Seattle and present a worthy chance to take. But I don’t feel either are shoe-ins in the way the Bosa brothers or Garrett were. It also won’t be a surprise if both experience significant growing pains.

In many ways saying ‘draft a game-wrecker’ is similar to saying ‘draft a franchise quarterback’. It’s not easy to win the jackpot.

Look at the pass rushers drafted in the top-10 between 2017-2021:

2017 — Solomon Thomas

Genuinely looked the part at Stanford, was drafted third overall and was a complete and total bust.

2018 — Bradley Chubb

Recently traded by Denver to Miami, Chubb is a good not great player and while certainly offering plus ability off the edge, he’s not a particularly feared ‘game-wrecker’.

2019 — Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Clelin Ferrell, Josh Allen, Ed Oliver

Bosa is unquestionably one of the best in the game. Williams has needed all four years of his rookie contract to realise his potential and now looks legit. Ferrell was a bust, while Allen and Oliver are fairly middling players.

2020 — Chase Young

Injuries have stalled Young’s career but there wasn’t that much evidence of ‘game-wrecking’ potential when he was on the field. He feels more like a player who can become Bradley Chubb rather than Nick Bosa.

2021 — None

As we can see, the hit-rate isn’t good. It’s worse than the top-10 quarterbacks drafted that have become excellent players (Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert). You also have players who have flashed franchise potential (Murray) and players who could yet reach that level (Lawrence).

It is incredibly hard to find a game-wrecking defensive lineman. Often when you get one it’s through sheer luck. Teams passing on Aaron Donald due to his size. Maxx Crosby lasting to round four. Nobody realising Micah Parsons could play the edge because he focused on middle linebacker at Penn State. T.J. Watt inexplicably lasting until the late first round.

Something similar might happen in 2023 with Kancey, if his immense talent and production translates to the next level. He has, after all, helped Pittsburgh to 45 sacks in 2022 — the most in college football. I’m not sure many people realise that.

Yet it will be difficult for the Seahawks to find the next great superstar defensive lineman — even with a top-five pick.

I think that’s something that frankly just needs to be said at this point, amid the growing clamour to ‘just get a star in the draft’. It really is no different than trying to find the next Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow, I’m afraid, and there’s little to suggest such a player will be readily available when the Seahawks inevitably benefit from Denver’s miserable situation.

I think there are other things to consider here too. As I touched on last night, this can’t just be a ‘talent’ thing. No team should be conceding 300 total yards to a running back, giving up nearly 600 yards of total offense and nearly 300 rushing yards.

The Seahawks are giving up 388.7 yards a game. They’re on course to smash last season’s unwanted franchise record of conceding 379.1 yards a game. Despite all the scheme and coaching changes — they have regressed as a unit.

Promising players like Darrell Taylor have become total non-factors. They seem incapable of creating pressure. At times it feels like they’re playing without edge rushers. I’m not a X’s and O’s expert but I’ve wondered a couple of times whether the ‘OLB’ responsibilities thrust upon Seattle’s edge players are preventing them from just getting their heads down and having a blast at the quarterback.

The run defense is a shambles, the linebacker play isn’t good (despite what people tell you about Jordyn Brooks, including the Pro Bowl voting). Quandre Diggs is having a rotten season.

Seattle’s defense has been fairly miserable for a number of years but they’re in danger of plumbing new depths. While this is a group that certainly is in need of a talent injection, I’m wondering whether we should rue the fact they can’t draft a well organised scheme or a good defensive coordinator.

After watching the last two games I’m also returning to the thought that if you want to run the Vic Fangio defense, you better hire the man himself. Otherwise you’ll end up with a pale imitation. Or worse — you’ll watch a defense giving up 600 yards to a 3-7 team.

It also has to be said that a reasonable amount has already been spent on this group. L.J. Collier and Jordyn Brooks are both first round picks. They spent two firsts on the injured Jamal Adams. Boye Mafe and Darrell Taylor cost second round picks. Cody Barton cost a third rounder. Poona Ford has the biggest cap hit on the roster this year. They just paid Quandre Diggs a fortune, plus Adams a year ago. Uchenna Nwosu was the most expensive outside free agent they’ve ever signed.

For anyone thinking plunging picks and resource into the unit will be a cure-all — that’s not necessarily going to be the case.

Until they can get the scheme sorted, organised and functioning — with the team at least able to not be a shambles defending the run and rushing the passer — any optimism for the future will be checked somewhat.

I mean, does anyone really want to see Will Anderson essentially reduced to an ineffective role as an OLB within this scheme?

So how do they do move forward? They’ve tried different coaches and ideas. They’ve spent picks. The Head Coach clearly isn’t going anywhere. So how does this work?

This brings us back to the broader outlook for this team. Where exactly are they?

The 2023 draft might be the only time in this window the Seahawks get to use a top-five pick, thanks to the Broncos. How they approach the draft will shape the future of the team and determine so much.

Is Geno Smith good enough to win a Super Bowl? Is he good enough to justify avoiding the quarterback position with a high pick next year?

These are questions we must discuss in more detail.

As the team has been winning and succeeding, it’s been easy to imagine pairing a prolific offense with a better defense and Seattle growing within a muddled NFC.

Yet, as we’ve seen, it’s difficult to draft and create a great defense. It’s not unimaginable to think they could spend high picks on the defense next year (which I’m not opposed to at all) but we see little immediate return for that investment (rookie growing pains) and the team doesn’t really improve from where it is now (6-5). In the meantime, Geno Smith will turn 33 and while it’s quite fun watching him succeed this year on a $3.5m cap hit — how will we feel watching the same kind of results when they’re paying him, say, $30m?

Smith was probably one of the few bright spots yesterday against the Raiders but it was also clear he was throwing a few more riskier passes and he was responsible for an interception and possibly a fumble on a botched run/pass option.

The Seahawks undoubtedly will want to keep Smith beyond this year unless he implodes down the stretch. Yet they’re going to have a once in a generation (for this franchise) opportunity to pick very, very early in round one — with a reasonable quarterback class on deck.

If we take the view that perhaps this team isn’t as close to contention as we thought three weeks ago — it might be a wise decision to invest in a potential heir apparent to Smith and try to find defensive solutions with your other picks.

The ‘Alex Smith-Patrick Mahomes’ transition plan, if you will.

Such a decision might be thrust upon Seattle anyway.

The current top four in the draft are:

#1 Houston
#2 Chicago
#3 Detroit (via Rams)
#4 Seahawks (via Broncos)

On first viewing it’s easy to assume the Texans and Lions will both draft quarterbacks, leaving one of Jalen Carter or Will Anderson for the Seahawks.

I’m not so sure about that.

For starters — C.J. Stroud has not had the kind of year to justify the almost unchecked praise he receives on the internet. I think it’s possible teams will view him with suspicion mixed with intrigue. He has the arm talent for sure — but like all Ohio State quarterbacks he has been babied by the scheme and the talent around him. We hear all about Will Levis’ 10 interceptions (one of which was a clear sack/fumble against Florida) but Stroud has thrown six picks in a much better environment — with better weapons, easier opponents and superior protection.

Levis himself has not had a fun time this season. Kentucky’s O-line has been an abomination. They’ve given up 3.5 sacks a game — ninth most in college football. That’s with a recent improvement too — that number was nearer the 4-5 sacks per game mark a few weeks ago.

Here are some important comparisons as you form your own opinions on the quarterbacks in this draft…

Sacks conceded per-game in 2022:

Oregon — 0.4
Washington — 0.5
Georgia — 0.5
Ohio State — 0.7
Florida — 1.3
Alabama — 1.5
Tennessee — 1.9
Kentucky — 3.5

Of course, stuff like this rarely gets mentioned in the media. It’s an important statistic to know, along with the schemes these teams use. For example — put Michael Penix Jr behind Kentucky’s O-line and let’s see how he gets on. Ditto Bryce Young for that matter. I’m sure Will Levis would’ve enjoyed some of those wide open throws Penix Jr managed in the Apple Cup, plus the half-field read offense. And that’s not to diminish Penix Jr, who has a great arm and has achieved great things this year. But an apples for apples comparison you cannot make between all the signal callers entering the league. Their environments, schemes and situations are all terribly different.

Even so — Levis has no momentum going into draft season, unless you want to count momentum moving him into the medical room. He’s played with shoulder and foot injuries all year due to the battering he’s received. I still think he will be the first quarterback taken due to his extreme physical skills, experience in a pro-offense and winning character but it’s hardly a shoe-in. Neither is it a slam dunk he will become the next Justin Herbert or Josh Allen, as some are suggesting he could be.

Bryce Young is great but as we’ve said a few times — he’s 5-10 and 185lbs. That might not matter to people on the internet but it will matter to GM’s needing to justify their jobs and their owners’ faith and millions of dollars.

Then there’s Anthony Richardson — far from the finished product but an insane physical specimen who at times looks like a Josh Allen/Lamar Jackson hybrid. He could be the #1 pick or the #20 pick next year. I think as the process goes on teams will fall in love with his potential and think less about the slightly inaccurate throws (too many just behind the receiver or making the target work for the ball). Again though — there’s no guarantee that happens.

As such, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Texans decide their best course of action is to let GM Nick Caserio ring his old buddy Jimmy Garoppolo and decide their intention is to roll with a quarterback who has been to one Super Bowl and a separate NFC Championship game while building up their defense. Especially if Carter and Anderson test well at the combine.

Chicago will go defense at #2 given the lack of options on the offensive line. The only thing stopping that would be an attractive trade down option.

What I’m saying is — don’t be shocked if the top two picks are the top two defensive players. You might scoff at that now but try telling anyone a year ago that Malik Willis wasn’t a high first round pick. You’d get the same response.

If the top two defensive linemen are off the board when Seattle picks — I don’t think there’s another you can justify taking that early. Neither do I think trading down to acquire more stock is a great idea either. We’ve seen that show before — getting loads of picks and not doing anything with them. It should only really be a consideration if the compensation includes future firsts — and it’s too early to know how likely that is.

Aside from Anderson, Carter and the top four quarterbacks — the only two players I think you can legitimately justify taking in the top-10 are a running back (Bijan Robinson) and a tight end (Michael Mayer). As such, I think it creates the extra incentive to just stash a QB if the top two defenders are gone.

Frankly, it should be a consideration even if the defenders are available. This is still a quarterback league — even if you do need to support them with complementary offensive and defensive pieces.

Can Geno Smith lead Seattle to the promise land? That’s a big question. If not, you have a duty to ask whether others in the draft can. I do think the likes of Levis and Richardson look like the kind of big, strong, athletic, impressive types John Schneider tends to be wooed by.

That said, the Seahawks need to be able to win in the trenches to play their brand of football. At the moment, they are failing miserably to do that.

Peter Carroll admitted on the radio this morning:

“We didn’t win the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball and that was really devastating.”

At least, it seems, they know where their priorities lie for next off-season. With or without a high quarterback pick thrown in.

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