John Schneider made his first appearance on 710 Seattle Sports last Thursday, kicking off a weekly spot that’ll continue until the draft.
Schneider isn’t going to give away secrets when he goes on the radio. However, I’m fascinated why — after 13 years — he suddenly wants to do this now. Is he simply doing a solid for Dave Wyman, a friend and one of the hosts? Is it indicative of an ongoing transfer of power — which will eventually culminate in Schneider being the key man within the franchise as Pete Carroll nears the end?
I think a bit of light-hearted speculation is an enjoyable topic during the off-season and I can’t have been the only one reading too much into what Schneider said. He wasted no time name-dropping scouting missions to watch Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Was it a coincidence? Or was he gently reminding everyone that he liked both players and that perhaps any future QB decision deserves a little faith and trust?
One of the key lines I found interesting was the way he described how he discusses the off-season with Carroll. He praised the Head Coach’s ability to take on information and the differing possibilities that come with a free agency and draft period.
It made me think about the amount of planning that goes on for an off-season. For those of us without first-hand NFL front office experience, it’s easy to come up with a ‘Plan A’ and talk about the benefits of said plan. I’ve never properly considered the sliding doors effect that goes on when certain dominos fall.
The way Schneider talked he essentially portrayed a situation where he would tell Carroll a series of opportunities and how they will pivot if those opportunities do or don’t come off. Basically it sounds like there is never really a ‘Plan A’ but just one bigger vision where you have to be ready to react to circumstances that go for or against you.
It’s a continuous puzzle piece, where you have to fit a lot of things together to build a roster. When you think of it like that — you realise how difficult it is to connect everything.
I think this is one of the reasons why we’re seeing teams cheat by using void years, taking on massive cap debt and pushing problems into tomorrow. It makes the puzzle easier to complete today and you can let the next person worry about the future.
I wanted to break down some of the scenarios that could impact the Seahawks’ thinking. There will be more, of course. These do feel like the obvious questions and challenges they’ll face though, as they prepare for a pivotal off-season.
1. Does John Schneider love one of these quarterbacks?
There’s nowhere else to start. This is the defining question of the whole off-season. For all the talk of Geno Smith’s future and the defensive line — this is where everything begins.
This is a GM who was reportedly prepared to draft Patrick Mahomes in 2017 when they had Russell Wilson. This is a GM who reportedly was willing to trade Wilson for the opportunity to draft Josh Allen. Neither player was the first QB taken in their respective classes. If they’d actually gone through with either move, it would’ve been stunning and unprecedented at the time.
You better believe, therefore, that he’ll be willing to use the #5 pick on a quarterback — irrespective of any other off-season decision — if he sees a player he rates as highly as Mahomes and Allen.
Remember — Mahomes and Allen were viewed as flawed players coming into the league. Lest we forget that Daniel Jeremiah didn’t even include Mahomes on his updated top-50 board less than a month before the 2017 draft, while Lance Zierlein graded Mahomes and Allen lower than he did Drew Lock.
If Schneider loves a quarterback or multiple quarterbacks, he will probably take one at #5. When you look at players like Will Levis, Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud, it’s hard not to think they are exactly the types of quarterback Schneider covets. I wouldn’t rule out interest in Bryce Young, either.
2. Geno Smith’s future
Smith’s future will matter for a number of reasons. It’ll dictate how much you have to spend in free agency. If you don’t re-sign him, you’ll need a quarterback on the roster before the draft who you are comfortable with adding to the competition to start.
With only $19.1m to spend in effective cap space, this is a huge call.
If you don’t re-sign Smith, does a quarterback at #5 become inevitable? Do you even have to consider being aggressive and trading up if there’s one player you feel is especially capable of starting for you quickly?
Does the cap saving also give you a greater opportunity to be more aggressive in free agency on the defensive line? For example, if your intention is to sign Smith to say a three-year deal with a lower year-one cap hit — can you do something similar for a defensive lineman if Smith goes elsewhere? You just transfer that initial cap hit to a DaRon Payne or Javon Hargrave and backload in the same way.
Signing Smith to an extension obviously buys you the opportunity to go D-line first, if that is the preferred route. It would also take the pressure off needing to start a rookie quarterback. We’ve talked a lot about the ideal situation being an Alex Smith/Patrick Mahomes torch-passing scenario.
Of course, Smith isn’t the only bridge option. There are cheaper alternatives available who could do the job but they might not be able to perform to Smith’s level.
Keeping Geno would also be the perfect smokescreen if your intention is to draft a specific quarterback, whether that’s at #5 or later on.
I’ll assume Schneider already knows if there’s a quarterback he ‘has to have’ in this class. With that established, addressing Smith’s future is the second most important factor because it influences everything else you can do or need to do.
I still think the best thing to do is let him establish his market at the combine when the entire league and every agent congregates on Indianapolis. Then you make a call on the price. Thankfully, that increasingly appears to have been Seattle’s plan all along.
3. Is Jalen Carter a Seahawk?
For me this is the third most important question entering the off-season. Schneider spoke on Thursday about the work they do on individuals, then the meetings they have as a staff before determining whether a player has the right character to be graded as a potential Seahawk.
In a separate interview at the end of Seattle’s season, he noted how much emphasis they placed on character in the 2022 draft.
In terms of pure talent, Carter is one of the best defensive linemen to enter the league in the last few years. He is exactly the type of player the Seahawks have needed for a long time. He is someone who can wreck the interior, impact games and be a difference maker. If he isn’t the best player in the draft he’s second only to Bijan Robinson.
As noted last week, however, the concerns over his character are real and should be taken seriously:
While it’s not the case that Carter is a bad person or anything like that — there are legitimate concerns in the league about his maturity, attitude, reliability and punctuality. Unquestionably he’s a very talented player but I would recommend people don’t dismiss what is being said by Todd McShay and Lance Zierlein.
This not only increases the chances of Carter lasting to #5 — it means the Seahawks would have a big call to make if one of the most talented defensive linemen to enter the league in recent years is available, yet they — like others — have serious concerns about whether he has the attitude and application to make the most of his god-given physical gifts.
Determining whether you would be prepared to take Carter at #5 is a big call. If you decide that he’s not a character fit for your locker room, then it impacts how you approach the #5 pick in a significant way.
Will Anderson will likely be very much considered a ‘Seahawk’ because there are no questions about him. It’s also been reported by Jeff Howe in the Athletic that generally speaking, the league sees a ‘top-three’ at quarterback (Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud & Will Levis).
If the three quarterbacks and Anderson end up making up the top-four — you have a big decision to make. Are you OK taking Carter? Do you take Anthony Richardson to draft and develop? Do you trade down with a team wanting the opportunity to select Richardson or Carter? Do you have another player you’re willing to take at #5?
It will certainly make life a lot easier for all concerned if Carter can convince teams he will apply himself like a professional and be a more mature person when drafted. That way the Seahawks can either draft him, filling a huge need, or someone else will draft him in the top-four, sending Anderson or a top-three QB to Seattle.
This isn’t the only consideration though. If you’re not prepared to take Carter at #5, then you need a plan to improve your interior defensive line. Is it possible to do that at #20, #38 or #53 at a sufficient level? Can you add a key free agent (especially if you’ve re-signed Geno Smith)? If DaRon Payne is tagged by Washington, can you trade for him? Can you afford him?
Carter influences so much of your draft and free agency thinking.
4. If you take a quarterback at #5 how do you fix your defense?
Given Seattle’s glaring defensive issues — if Schneider is insistent that he’s found the next great quarterback and can get him at #5, he’ll need to produce a plan to help the defense in other ways.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Seahawks view Will Anderson as a big target at #5 (if he lasts) and would then look to pivot to Will McDonald if he’s gone.
I’ve said it a few times since the Senior Bowl but McDonald is the prototype pass rusher for the Carroll Seahawks. The length, the explosive traits, the balance and bend. He’s what they go for.
Their main round one defensive focus could easily be based around the two players named Will — Anderson at #5 or McDonald at #20.
I fear McDonald will rise up boards after the combine when he puts on a show for the ages. At the very least, he might end up being just out of range — as Brian Burns was in 2019. That would be gut-wrenching because increasingly I think he could be an excellent option for Seattle at #20 — whether they go quarterback at #5 or not.
Any plan will obviously have to go beyond one player. McDonald just feels very ‘Seahawks’ though and could be the primary alternative to Anderson with the other pick in round one.
There are other questions to consider here.
Is the arm length for Calijah Kancey a deal-breaker or not? Obviously Kancey isn’t Aaron Donald — but they share a very similar physical profile. Donald led Brandon Staley’s league-leading defense in LA. Is it totally out of the question that Kancey could similarly play beyond his size? I like him a lot but it’s hard to create expectations on anything like a Donald-level. Still, he’s another player Seattle will surely do a lot of work on. They do talk a lot about length on the D-line though and Kancey is expected to measure with short arms.
Can Adetomiwa Adebawore or Keion White produce enough impact as rotational players for the defensive front?
Are the second-tier defensive tackles good enough to really excel? Is there anything special about Keeanu Benton, Cameron Young, Zacch Pickens, Moro Ojomo, Siaka Ika and Byron Young (Alabama)? How is Mazi Smith’s arm length and do you factor that in if he tests as well as any defensive tackle not named Jordan Davis?
How do you combine a draft pick (or picks) with free agency?
I’d like to see a splash — and think one is warranted. One of the key benefits of trading Russell Wilson should’ve been the flexibility to go and land a key free agent or two this year. This will be almost impossible if they give Geno Smith a big contract, even with a lower year-one cap hit.
Thus, we can all appreciate that the best we can probably hope for is another Uchenna Nwosu level signing. Who fits that bill? Two names that spring to mind are Derrick Nnadi and Zach Allen. Neither will tilt the balance but they can produce. It does just feel like the Seahawks need more up front, however.
That’s why it feels to a lot of people that it could end up being — re-sign Geno Smith, go defense at #5 (and maybe #20 or #38). Or — go quarterback at #5, get someone who knows your scheme and can start quickly (eg, Will Levis) and then add some veteran D-liners. To be fair, you can build cases for both plans. I think one has greater potential for short-term growing pains and long-term success (quarterback at #5) but the other likely makes you more of a shorter-term threat with questions about the future at quarterback (and whether you will be good enough to actually be anything more than playoff also-rans). The Seahawks might need to pick their poison.
5. If you don’t go quarterback at #5, how do you add to the position?
The obvious answer is Hendon Hooker. I think there are enough doubts about his deep accuracy, age, injury situation and helpful Tennessee scheme to wonder whether the Seahawks (and other teams) will be that interested in him. I have reservations. Yet he also has a high degree of physical upside, maturity, college production and traits (huge hands) that teams like the Seahawks pay attention to.
I can well imagine a scenario where the Seahawks are inclined to go quarterback at #5 unless Will Anderson lasts. Feel free to add Jalen Carter’s name too, provided they get the necessary character reassurance (and trust me, they will seek it).
If they take that mindset, they might pivot to taking Hooker to make sure they add a signal caller later on.
This situation meshes better if the Seahawks retain Geno Smith. Hooker almost certainly won’t be ready to compete to start in 2023 and will need to continue rehabbing his knee, before learning a new system and getting back to 100%. He’s a redshirt draft pick and if you need to open up a competition at quarterback, he probably wouldn’t be part of it this year.
If Smith comes back he would be the unchallenged starter to begin the season and it would give you a chance to just sit Hooker, let him learn and recover and be part of the competition in 2024.
It’s not a stretch to imagine:
1. The Seahawks sign Geno Smith to a new contract
2. They take a defender at #5
3. They plan to draft Hooker on day two
It wouldn’t be a major surprise if the Seahawks used the 53rd pick on Hooker — the exact same pick the Eagles used on Jalen Hurts.
You would still get three years of quality cap control out of Hooker. If he was PUP’d for 2023 you could also get an extra season of manageable RFA protection, just as the Seahawks are going to receive with Darrell Taylor.
This isn’t necessarily what I would do because I much prefer the four quarterbacks at the top of the board. I also think there are enough good defensive players at #20 and #38 to feel like you can take one of those QB’s at #5. That said, it’s possible the following occurs in a pattern leading the Seahawks to Hooker:
1. The market comes to Seattle with Geno Smith
2. The D-line market goes against Seattle in free agency
3. They discover it’s likely that three QB’s come off the board in the top-four
4. They decide to take one of the top-two defenders at #5
5. They target Hooker in order to make an investment at QB
This approach would probably mean the Seahawks taking further ‘shots’ at the quarterback position in future years in a similar range. That’s something, for example, the Packers have done and that’s Schneider’s background.
Again though, it comes down to the first question. Does Schneider see a quarterback at #5 he has to have?
Overrated talking points
What will they do at center?
I think this has become a bit of an obsession among Seahawks fans. There aren’t actually that many quality centers in the NFL and the way people go on about Creed Humphrey you’d think only the Seahawks passed on him. He lasted to the 63rd pick.
Do the Seahawks need to be better at center? Yes. Have other teams ‘plugged guys in’ using this scheme? Yes.
Do they need to force things with a high draft pick? No, absolutely not.
I don’t think this is a particularly exciting center class and with Sedrick Van Pran returning to Georgia, they’d be best served looking for a solid veteran. John Michael Schmitz has become a trendy round one projection for Seattle but as I noted here, I think that would be a big reach.
I continue to think Garrett Bradbury would be the ideal solution based on profile. To me he’s another ‘Uchenna Nwosu’ level free agent in terms of price and potential.
Can you get a center later on? Yes — and I think the man I interviewed yesterday, Penn State’s Juice Scruggs — could be an option there.
What do they do at right guard?
If there was an opportunity to draft a top-level guard I’d be all for it but I don’t see any in this class, contrary to what’s being suggested in the media. The Seahawks can find scheme fits later on and should be able to follow what worked for the Rams — shifting college tackles inside to execute the system.
Let’s not forget — LA’s offensive line led the league in a number of categories for a few years before injuries decimated their unit in 2022.
If they see an opportunity they can’t miss — then fine. I think it’s at least possible they could view someone like Dawand Jones as the clear BPA at #20. That could lead to a shift inside for Abraham Lucas. However, Lucas is one of the big success stories from 2022 and they’ve already moved enough linemen around.
I would guess this is a situation that could be resolved by re-signing Phil Haynes (EDIT — the Seahawks just announced they have re-signed Haynes to a new one-year deal) and then drafting someone. Matthew Bergeron, Jordan McFadden and Tyler Steen could be solid guard converts. Nick Broeker, Nick Saldiveri and McClendon Curtis could also produce value. I also think teams might view Joe Tippman as a guard and he is going to be one of the best testers at the combine — at any position.
Get another cornerback!
We’ve seen too many mocks projecting the Seahawks take a cornerback early. This will likely be dealt with in the usual way — draft and develop in the middle or later rounds. It’s a deep group at corner so there’s little need to draft a player early. It’s likely Michael Jackson will be back anyway.
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Personally for me the best free agent signings that we could do that seem like they could happen is Dremont Jones and Garret Bradbury. Seems like the kind of second wave that they like to get in on. If we do go QB at 5 I still think that Bryan Bresee could be an option at 20. I know he kind of underwhelmed but when you read about what that guy went through his junior year do you give him a pass. What he went through creates character and grit and that is something the Seahawks love in players and he would be a fall back to Carter.
Excellent strategic thinking, Rob. Thanks.
This both worries and encourages me.
I don’t want the Seahawks to react. I want them to act.
Their track record of not acting boldly early enough in the offseason is hideous, and has proven to be very expensive.
They need to make a move on defense they can build around. They can’t wait for Geno to decide on a contract. There is time to make all this work out with the salary cap later in the year. Don’t worry about the effective cap space, that’s way down the priority list right now. Forget it. Be bold.
They need to signal to Geno they’re serious. Go get a defensive player. Let Geno establish his market but signal to him he needs to fit in their plans. Establish a deadline to get something done. And it has to be within a couple weeks of free agency. No messing around. If they are not going to try to bring in a hedge like Drew Lock early on, they need to get going on one if/when Geno prices himself out of town. They cannot wait while Geno tries to make up his mind.
They need to be talking with Jamal Adams’ agent right now. They cut Percy Harvin loose after all his injury plagues and personality nonsense. They have endured 2+ seasons of that with Adams now. The old Seahawks would not have tolerated all this. (nor would they have given a devastatingly injured Diggs such a huge contract). Adams has to agree to a renegotiation that works for the Seahawks and frees up a good chunk of cap this year or he can find a new employer.
They need to be talking with Harris’ agent right now. They have a $2m roster bonus due Mar 22, and he has a huge $12.2m cap hit this year with a juicy cap to gain if he is cut outright.
Why am I encouraged?
They traded Russ, cut Bobby, added a great value play in Nwosu, had a great draft and resisted panicking at QB last year.
I want more of 2022’s offseason and less of 2017-2021’s please.
Not saying I disagree about the polarizing figure of Adams. But I think the comparison to Percy Harvin is inapt. Harvin was a locker room nightmare.
And contrary to the majority of us here at Rob’s site, I believe the team likes Adams. My own concerns about Jamal Adams are ones articulated frequently here: not the childish one calling Adams a “peacock” (high end pro athlete ego stuff is hardly unknown) but the concern about Adams’ scheme fit and the incredible resources devoted to a hybrid position. I guess I’m also leery of Adams’ ability to ever, uh, run fast again! So I’m with you cha.
Not gonna lie, this is speculation on my part but I think Pete is tired of Adams. His answers to questions about Jamal down the stretch were little more than shrugs.
The constant injuries, having to bungy him to the bench while he’s still hurt, the waving guys into the end zone, the missed tackles, obliterating teammates with friendly fire tackles, terrible in coverage, not able to intercept balls thrown at his face, and then getting badly badly hurt again. All the while running his mouth about being great.
It’s the Seattle paradox. The attitude that makes them great also makes them absolutely unbearable when they’re not great.
I think it’s also what Brock Huard hinted at on the radio recently.
They thought they were getting a person who was incredibly passionate for the game and his team — and what they got was a person who was passionate for #33.
I try not to take victory laps very often but…
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/how-the-seahawks-can-justify-the-jamal-adams-trade#comment-515949
Plenty of us have called him peacock God of Thunder including Rob, because the label fits 100%. Hell, Rob presented a video with a peacock in reference to him. It was utterly apropo. So I’ll wear “childish” if you like. Anyone else wanna join me?
I’m just a kid at heart. I’m in, though I prefer “teacup” since he is so fragile.
I have an actual peacock on property. Just showed up one day.
Unreal how similar JA and my bird are.
Full feathers strutting around like a dumbass getting roasted by female wild turkeys. So stupid he’ll bloody himself attacking his own image if he catches it in my trucks bumper.
Then like some reverse story of the Phoenix rising when he loses his plume every year I can’t find him because he looks like a scrawny little oversized pigeon as he hides in the rafters until the feathers cone back so he can repeat the cycle.
It’s basically like hawks fans waiting for JA to get back to his all pro form which was almost a NFL average career ago.
The childishness is Jamal constantly trash talking after he makes a crappy play or pounding his chest and saying he’s the best in the NFL when he’s not.
Fantastic post cha. Proactive rather than reactive would be nice return to the early days of this regime.
The reactive part John is talking about is simply that you don’t win every bid. If they put in a bid for someone they like, but get outbid because they don’t think the player is worth it, then they react by moving on to the next set of options.
Maybe they want to spend bigger at C for Bradbury, but if he’s not available, they could take the extra money “saved” and go look for someone more expensive at another position.
This seems like a normal process to me, nothing to worry about because they’re obviously going to be proactive in targeting what they feel are the best players for the team. We may disagree and they may be wrong, but the process makes perfect sense.
Schneider seems so relaxed, its scary.
The man has all the ammo and seems to have taken the reigns back from Pete.
In other words, the best place he can be.
Do we see a double dip in QB for Hawks (assuming no Geno & Lock this FA)? Say CJ Stroud #5, and Hendon Hooker #83?
Thanks as always for excellent continuing content Rob. You have frequently mentioned hooker as an option and while I don’t disagree with your logic, I really hate the idea of Seattle spending a pick on him before the 3rd day. To me his age, injury status, and shortcomings that you have pointed out are major issues. What about him makes you think he’d be considered over other lower tier qbs like McKee or DTR?
Nice analysis of options. Thanks.
“A tale of two options” — I see a number of mocks, as Rob says, with the Seahawks taking a corner. Can’t see it happening. Sloppy/lazy mocking. We know the front office’s predilections.
On the other hand, I also see a lot of mocks where Tyree Wilson is drafted by the Seahawks at 5. Now that makes my ears prick up. Why are there so many, if not reputable mockers then at least well known ones, mocking Wilson to Seattle?
Assuming Young and Stroud are gone quickly I think if JS doesn’t like one of the QBs — Richardson too raw; Levis error prone — and there are character issues with Carter, then Anderson or Wilson could be taken, assuming they are there at 5. Wilson could test really well and thus he could move up a number of boards.
Tyree has the freakish body that fits what they want at DE spot. L. J. Collar was a bust.
I’ve been wondering though…does he have what you described?
In as much as what they want. They just let Carlos Dunlap go last off season who was Tyree’s exact size. Maybe not as long arms. But a 6’6″ frame with 34 5/8″ arm length is pretty damn freaky.
Dunlap is older and he cost more. A cap casualty.
My comment was more that Dunlap was and is an ideal fit in a 4-3. Cincinnati, Seattle, and now KC all run base 4-3 concepts.
Wilson is a killer size as a 4-3 end. Its not a great size for Wilson as an OLB. Unless his tape is wrong and he’s Travon Walker levels of freak.
I’m not saying he couldn’t do it but a lot of 3-4 ends are about 2 inches shorter and 10 plus pounds heavier.
On the note of cap I don’t know. Maybe.
I agree with you on a lot of this but I’m really tired of the middle of our line getting blown up or not able to move the line at all. I don’t think the team should go center at 20 like some mocks suggest, but investing at center a little earlier could finally stiffen up the middle of this line. Recently we’ve seen guards leave Seattle and have more success. Thos could be a lot of reasons but I wonder if poor center play is effecting the guard play. I don’t know enough about blocking schemes I’m sure someone else around here will be able to back me up or refute me with better or more specific arguments.
I feel like a trade up in round one is important. Either the 5 pick or the 20, but I feel like the value on both picks might end up being just before where our picks are. I’d way rather get a couple studs that the teak feels great about than just more lottery picks. With the extra capital make damn sure you get your guy.
Picking at 20 is a nightmare. The 1st round talent is gone and it feels like your reaching for the round of talent. I keep looking for trade down get the guy I want. I keep looking at LB and think Brook may not start and Barton is a FA who we have left? ILB could be as important as DE and DT this year.
Love 20th pick. The d line depth there will be bad, but it’s a great spot for a corner / receiver
I don’t know if this was discussed here already or not but it would appear the team is not moving either of the safties or will disley this off-season. Friday was the cutoff before some guaranteed money hits so they would have had to make the decision before then. I assume that money still applies to a post June 1st cut. I didn’t think they’d cut dissley he actually had an OK season, and Duggs might be better than he looked if the front 7 played a bit better. Really wish they would have just said buy to adams though and let both sides move forward.
Adams is still in play. His guarantee was guaranteed for injury so it didn’t really change anything when it hit.
$8.44m gain if they designate him a post-June 1.
Awesome thanks Cha.
Indeed! From Feldman’s Freak List 2022, where Tippmann is ranked #28 out of 100:
You’re going to love Julius Brents
What a great guy
Interview landing tomorrow
Yes! I had already penned him in for us day 4 just based on profile and Senior Bowl performance, so this is great to hear if he fits the new Seahawks’ culture.
They made a small IOL start by extending Phil Haynes one year. IMO the probability is now greater that Jackson will be released or traded.
It’s nailed on Jackson is gone
Good stuff, and a lot to think about in the coming months.
Who are some potential players who could be value picks at #20 if they drop, who are NOT at positions we recognize as positions of need?
For example, if TCU WR Quinton Johnson were to drop to #20, might he be too good to pass up? Maybe players like ND TE Michael Mayer? Alabama S Brian Branch? Who might be some potential surprise picks that you could imagine John Schneider saying “we didn’t expect him to be there… he was just too good to pass up” during his post-draft press conference?
If Carolina came calling for the fifth pick, would you take 9 + 39 + 61 for it?
Only if at 5 we aren’t happy with what QB we can draft, and Will Anderson is gone too.
Good scenario. It’s what I’m driving at.
What if the QBs are gone but Anderson is available?
You could pass on Anderson to take Will McDonald at 9 and pick up the two R2 picks.
Not sure the difference between the two Wills is worth say a Josh Downs/Tucker Craft/Ade Ade/JL Skinner and a Derrick Hall/Cameron Young/Hendon Hooker (if Schneider likes him)/Israel Abanikanda.
Or pick your early/late R2 prospects of choice.
No – they *have* to acquire a 2024 1st otherwise we are going to hamstring ourselves in finding a young QB. I hope that’s a hard/fast rule for PC/JS. Any move down off #5 has to be accompanied by a R1 next year.
This is a great point. It’s the only thing that still gives you options at qbotf while building the team now.
I agree, if Anderson is gone I would take the deal. Might be able to get AR15 at 9. Some of that depends on if you sign Geno but the value is there.
No. It appears to me that the need for DL down linemen is greater than for OLB edge rusher types. Carter may very well not make it to #5. Rob had a very pertinent question. Are second tier defensive linemen good enough to be an improvement over what we have? And their track record of bringing in studs in free agency is not that impressive.
I’d want #9 and 2024 1st round pick, and send bk 2024 3rd pick to Carolina
Welcome back, Phil Haynes!
Good to see him back and hopefully means them moving on from Gabe Jackson.
I read somewhere that cutting Gabe Jackson will save 6,500,000.
1-yr contract extension. Hedging their bet it looks like. I like Phil and glad he is back, will there be any cap advantage with this move? Also seems that might spell the end for old Gabe.
They can get that $6.5m freed up from Gabe Jackson and still have the position covered, so they can go and not have a gigantic hole at RG when the dust settles.
Will be curious to see what they paid him. They tendered him at $2.5m last year.
Depending on the money for Haynes you think Jackson is for sure gone (which he probably was anyways). Then they try and bring in a rookie to compete with him. If the money is low it could just be a depth piece.
Looks like a $4M deal with incentives that could boost it to $5M. Still saving some $ vs Gabe Jackson
https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1628177629030281217
I find this equally surprising and positive..a homegrown guy, he will probably be the guy with a probable Gabe Jackson cut.. I’m good with this..only wonder if Lewis goes bk to RG and Haynes goes
LG
Please no. Lewis turned a shambolic switch into a positive.
Phil did not play well last year but I like the move depending on the cost. You can give Jake Curhan and Greg Eiland a chance to compete for the starting job. But you have a veteran who is familiar with the system and if he loses the competition to start, he can backup both guard spots for a year. Seattle probably adds a Day 3 T/G.
Let’s figure it out cutting Jackson is 6.5 million saved. Haynes pay last year was 2.8 million keeping him cost us 1.2 million or 2.2 million. I believe we will save 5.3 to 4.3 million in cap space.
One of the hardest parts for me about trying to figure out the draft, who will be there at #5, and what the Seahawks might do is that I don’t feel like we have a good read on what the Cardinals will do at #3. It seems very unlikely they trade Kyler and take a QB (though that would be a ballsy and probably wise move), and obviously they could be a team that trades down if one of the other QB-needy teams wants to come up, but we just have so little info on their new GM and head coach that it’s really tricky to figure out how they’ll approach the draft.
Also, I tend to think that wide receiver is a position where adding a player on Day One or Day Two makes a lot of sense if there are some good players available – would love more thoughts on the WR class.
To be honest I think it’s fairly obvious Arizona will take Will Anderson if he’s there
I would think they take Anderson at 3 as well. The player matches the need. I guess they could fall in love with Carter but just dont see it and dont think they even think about Tyree Wilson. The Colts could try and trade up to 3 to secure a QB which would give the Cardinals the same player at 4 they would have taken at 3. Not sure they want to go back to 7 or 9 unless they get blown away.
Using Rob’s big board I’m going to throw out mock which has 2 trades. First Seattle trades down from 20 with Buffalo 27&59. The second trading 59&156 for Texas 65&104.
5 Will Levis QB
27 Drew Sanders ILM
37 J.L. Skinner S
52 Keion White DE/DT
65 Keena Benton DT
83 Chris Rodriguez jr. RB
104 Jordon McFadden OG
123 Rick Stromberg C/G
153 Karl Brooks DT
198 Nikki Remigio WR
Tough draft to fill all the holes on front of the defensive line.
I’d love it.
My gut says switch white for Skinner and then go white, benton, Skinner and that’s my guess for how they go.
Skinner won’t be at 52 and I’m already to move on from Adams. If Whites gone at 52 we Byron Young from Alabama.
I see a ton of mocks raving about Skinner and some that are pretty luke warm.
Like you I’d love to see us get real about Adams.
With quandre getting 2023 last friday i feel skinner is unlikely… but like the other 5 of first 6 (again based on the Staton info).
Btw with Mr Staton wTching every gamebof 21 & 22 of the QBs and multiple games of others i feel any draft that says “in a couple of games i watched X was good/great/poor” is effectively worthless – massive thanks Rob.
Man everyone better stop with this Levis talk. He’s not good like people are saying he is bc he’s a player who turns the ball over which Pete doesn’t like and might end up already injury prone before taking a snap as a 24 yr old rookie. He doesn’t really have pocket awareness and that’s why we see his bad decisions. He thinks he’s a gunslinger like Brett farve but isn’t. And one season under rams scheme also doesn’t mean he’s got it fully down. For all we know the other QB’s in this draft could learn the offense quickly.
With respect, I’ve watched and studied every game Will Levis has played in college. I’ve written numerous articles, some as long as 3-4000 words, detailing my thoughts on him and why he warrants a high pick.
So you’ll need to provide a more convincing argument than what you’ve just written there to try and make out he’s ‘not good’ and ‘stop with the Levis talk’.
His 2021 tape when he wasn’t injured is really good. He’d be a great fit for Seattle and start Day 1. I’m not sure why you think he isn’t good, let alone better than the other QB prospects. The drop off after the first 6 picks seems pretty large, so I’d rather take a shot at getting a franchise QB at #5 than chance getting a bust at some other position. At least QB is the biggest upshot to saving money in FA.
Levis had 10 INTS last season and 13 the season before. You know two guys. that had 15 in a season while they were in college? Mahomes and Josh Allen.
Looking foraward to the reaction pod to DJ’s latest pile of poop… sorry Mock draft 2.0. 🤣🤣
Saw the link and didn’t even bother to check it out. What for? I already know what I’m going to find there…
Brents highlights. Check out the aggressive tackling and hits.
Julius Brents Kansas State Career Highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=739qP0yDfaw
Good lord.
I love how he always tries to hit low and wrap up the legs.
As I’ve been suggesting for a few weeks, DaRon Payne will be tagged
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/02/21/commanders-are-virtually-certain-to-franchise-tag-daron-payne/
So if you want him, you’ll have to trade for him
Having a bonus R2 pick could help a lot here
Go get him
I know PFF grades can be quite strange at times, but I was surprised to see how low they rated Payne last year. Does that grade concern either of you Rob or Cha?
I’m just surprised to see a DT with 12 sacks rate that low. Anyone else more knowledgable than me (or with a PFF sub) know why they have him with a 58.4 rating?
I’ll take a bad PFF grade if we get a 10-12 sack defensive tackle
I don’t have the PFF sub to know the more specific stats.
But PFF loved him as a run stopper his first three years. And he produced great counting stats as a pass rusher last year. I can justify that he has shown enough to be elite in two categories – the only two that really matter for a DT. He just hasn’t done them at the same time. Yet.
And at his age and with his ability to take a big volume of snaps, I can justifiably feel his best football is in front of him.
They definitely don’t like him or Hargaves as run-stoppers this past season. It makes me wonder why…
Also, Payne may regress to the mean and end up with 4-5 sacks. While that’s not bad, I am a little concerned about a major investment in him. But it’s certainly a better investment than Geno, so I’m in on the bold move.
In what world did we need to pay Phil Haynes 4 million with the possibility of it being 5 million with incentives, was he really going to get 4 million from another team this seems insane
Wow. They definitely consider him a starter, that’s for sure.
That $1m in incentives better be playing time and not just game day roster bonuses.
And Jackson is a goner.
That is mid-range starter money. A bit more than I was thinking he would get. But, it is a 1-year deal so no lasting damage if he doesn’t work out.
I’m fascinated by the sheer number of combinations/permutations at the top of the draft. If we stick with the assumption that the top 6 picks will be the four qbs (Stroud, Levis, Young, Richardson) and the two top defensemen (Anderson, Carter), there are 720 different ways to arrange the order of those picks. And that doesn’t account for some team, for example, ranking Wilson over Carter; nor does it account for some team selecting this year’s equivalent of Clelin Ferrell. It’ll be a blast to see how it unfolds.
Anybody else slightly worried Seattle is right back on their BS and overpaying their guys……
Slightly worried
Don’t know what they paid Haynes. We’ll see what they do with Dissly, Diggs, Adams. Much will become clear and yes, there is reason to be slightly worried.
I mean… When were they not? Diggs last year.
Yeah I know. Maybe it’s a fine signing. I think many of were hoping they would maybe take a look at themselves and not necessarily pay guys who have never shown to be consistent starters starter money.
Yes. Encapsulated in a picture:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Seahawks/status/1628144605651947520
I must admit, it’s hard to imagine him hitting the market and getting $4m
Who else is paying that???
On the plus side no more O’Cyrus Torrence at #20 nonsense
Not so fast. M-S Dugar mocked him there again.
Good grief
Get out of here with that
Honestly, it’s probably a bit of an overpay by a little but it seems like they want to keep there offense together and draft heavy on the defensive side. Get the little crap out of the way before free agency and the draft and focus on the main thing which is QB/defense
5 career starts in 4 NFL seasons.
Thats about what I thought it was going to be which means starter money. They might bring in a rookie to compete but at that money they plan on him being the starter.
I don’t get the signing at that price either. While it’ll save about $2.5M compared to Jackson, I think we overpaid.
What do you think a Bradbury contract would look like?
Probably $6-7m a year?
Well they are notorious for overpaying their guys.
I’m not too worried with $4m to Phil Haynes. He’s basically taking on the Blythe contract.
If at this point they use the Gabe Jackson money to sign Garret Bradbury, then I think the O line will be in a good place going into the draft. Still in a position to take a Guard with a high pick if at that point the player in question offers the best value. You’d then have an O line, which isn’t expensive with two Rookie contract tackles, but with a certain amount of depth, which the Rams, Bengals and Chiefs can all vouch for being important.
But should ‘the Blythe contract’ even be a thing?
Especially if their next move is to… extend Blythe
If they use the Gabe Jackson money on Garrett Bradbury, I’d be OK with that.
It’s amazing though that they’ve already almost run out of money — in a year when we all thought they’d have loads to spend
Absolutely, everything is about their next move on the Offensive line.
Can the Front Office improve the O line on last season? If they can improve at Center and in the draft, then for what the O line as a whole cost last season, they’ll be better this.
The Seahawks don’t have a top Offensive Line, so running it back (with Blythe) looks like lacking ambition. That would be a massive red flag flapping around the off field leadership.
Blythe was overpayed like many FA signings or extensions before. We pay way too much for medicore to bad players with possilby no big market or reasons for a rising salary. Blythe got 1M for 12 snaps with the chiefs. Why should his market be 4M?
Was Dissly really getting 8M per year elsewhere?
Our well functioning IDL last year all signed contracts before the season:
Al Woods: 2,0 – 2,5 (2017 – 2021) -> 4,5 (2022) for 36% snap count
Q. Jefferson: 3,2 (2021) -> 4,7 (2022) 49% snap count
Mone: 5,5 (2022) 23% snap count
All could/should be cut this offseason.
The Seahawks way seems to be: Sign an medicore player for 150 – 200% of his previous contract and probably market value. If the contract is for more than one year: Possibly cut him the next year
They also gave Bruce Irvin a big pay increase (32% pay rise) from his Carolina salary in 2020
This is despite the player saying publicly he was desperate to come back to Seattle and with no obvious competition for his signature
Friend of the blog breaks a signing!
https://mobile.twitter.com/SeahawkersUK/status/1628191554060918789
Fantastic x1 for UK, x2 as long as bellore isn’t getting Haynes money.
Hard to believe we couldn’t use another young LB or DB there as a special teams ace. Bellore is just under 34 and did terrible the few plays he went in as a LB & ran in the mid 4.8s at the combine in 2011. Bet they overpaid him too at between 2 and 3 mil. for 2023. So now we’re down to about 13 mil. left in effective cap space?
I don’t have a problem with the Bellore signing. He never costs much and always make plays on special teams and works circles around the guys in practice. He’s a great glue guy to have.
$2m for a crusty 34 year old who occasionally pops is what you pay for those types.
Thanks! Pretty cool day yesterday with all of that going on!
Great article, Rob. please take Daniel Jeremiah’s seat on draft day!
Wonder is FA QB market has peaked with too many average, overpaid QBs- Geno, Daniel Jones, Lamar unsigned- reportedly asking for more than $40MM per year. No doubt QB pay will be a topic among execs and agents at the combine.
Teams need to start being prepared to say ‘NO’ when it comes to overpaying for average quarterbacks
Be prepared to take a chance on finding cheaper (and probably better) players
I get what you’re saying but I have a hard time comparing geno and Jones to Lamar. Lamar actually has a reasonable argument as to why he deserves big money, and could potentially carry an average roster to success. I’m not saying he for aude is worth it but there is an argument to be made. With the others they’re definitely bang average and not worth the money.
Definitely not saying they’re on the same footing for contract value, but asking more than their respective teams value them.
The Seahawks have leverage and seem content to evaluate the rookie class, hold firm on price for now, maybe even let the market decide.
The Giants have a good amount of cap space. Daboll is the reason Jones is even being considered for another contract- don’t see him with much leverage either. Daboll might even be able to do more with someone else, who knows.
Ravens/Lamar are in a pickle no doubt given his production. They’ve reportedly offered at least $133MM guaranteed. When looking at the top of the market though- I think only Mahomes and Allen have justified their contracts. The rest of the Top 10 (maybe top 15?) paid QBs look like bad contracts.
The margin for error in paying a QB top 10 money is zero.
There might, might, be a cass being slowly made that Allen like Wilson might not be worth the contracts.
Both kept/keep their team competive but we may be getting to the point where his cost is not quite worth it if they can’t move forward.
I think you can pay a QB and still move forward if you nail your drafts. Kansas is kind of doing it.
But Buffalo seems stuck. I don’t know why but there’s something going on there. He’s amazing but what and where are they going?
Given what Daboll has done with Daniel Jones, it’s not a big leap to think the Bills are having trouble replacing his impact.
I suspect that’s true given Allen’s regression last year without Daboll. I also think Allen makes Buffalo a contender still. He has a big Mahomes/Burrow problem in the AFC unfortunately.
I don’t know about this example, they were easily a top contender in a very tough AFC. Beat the Cheifs in the regular season, could have been the number 1 seed had they won that game that got cancelled and understandably had a lot to deal with going into the playoffs that they couldn’t overcome.
Plus that team’s roster is absolutely loaded despite Allen’s contract.
Allen’s cap hit was 16 million last year.
The next five years it averages in the 40’s.
They have a loaded roster and they are competitive. All that is true. Obviously he is great. Right now before his cap hit ratchets up significantly they are 4-4 in the playoffs.
Denver Hawker: Agree. Only Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have earned the contract.
I too found the John Schneider interview schedule to be notable. Something changed- I’m sure its calculated for some reason. Great observation.
I’m getting fully on board with the Daron Payne train.
This is the current Seattle dline. Snap counts, sacks, tfls, qb hits, and cost:
Mone, woods, q. Jeff, harris, poona ford.
12.5 combined sacks. 24 tfls. 30 qb hits. 46.4% average snap count. Low 30%, high 58%. Total cap hit next year: 27.7 million.
Daron payne: 11.5 sacks. 18 tfls. 20 qb hits. 87% of snaps. Spotrac estimated cost: 19.5-9 million.
Yeah give me the guy who basically did five guys value.
Payne is also a 58.3 PFF rating player, who assembled too many poor games among his handful of good games. Payne is the prototypical “take a break” player.
Does that make him the leader we need upfront, or does this just make him a prototypical Seahawks defender?
And who plays QB?
Currently I am beating the drum for Drew Sanders at #20, if he is there. The way this draft is shaking out, there are 2 positions that you need to take early to get an impact player (recognizing, of course, that impact players and busts can happen anywhere in the draft), and those 2 are QB and LB.
I each case there are a few good ones at the top and then a drop to about round 4 for the next best players. At QB we have the well regarded 4 players, with the next option being in rd 3 or 4 (Hooker?), while with linebackers, after Sanders, Nolan Smith, and Trenton Simpson, the next best is Henley (using Rob’s board) in round 4.
Perhaps I overvalue linebacker, but I feel that we did not get good play from Barton and Brooks and I found some justification from Cha’s entry that showed how many yards they give up before they tackle. (I still don’t know what SIS is that Cha referenced)
Well, on the flipside, the last time we took one of the top LBs in R1 it didn’t exactly have the impact we hoped it would.
I say we stick with the trenches at #20, unless an elite offensive player is available.
The wildcard position at #20 is tight end IMO
There are three who could/should go in R1
Not a vital need but could be BPA and a nod to the future with Fant/Parkinson free agents in 2024
I think they are going to LOVE Mayer if he runs a good short shuttle and/or three-cone. If all these people predicting a fall for Mayer are right, the Seahawks should be ready to pounce
Meanwhile Musgrave’s upside is other-wordly and Kincaid could be the X-factor receiver the league is looking for constantly
Tucker Kraft is very good too
Perhaps if they go defense at #5, then I could see a TE at #20. But if they find a QB with their first pick, it’s hard not to grab a pass rusher at #20 if available. Sure, there are day 2 options on defense, but not quite with the ideal Seahawky profile a Will McDonald would give you.
Given that there are 3-4 really good TEs, do you think they might wait and see which one of them falls through the cracks into the top of R2. Then they could target him at #38 or even move up a few spots if they think another team snags him before them. As things stand right now, I see that as the most likely plan if indeed they are looking at a TE early. (though Mayer, if available at #20, could be the one that makes them simply decide to throw their other plans out the window)
I would say if we have to spend a high draft pick on defense and rely on him to be the turning point for this defense we failed the Offseason. Our unit was so bad that one rookie won’t fix the issues.
Imo we have to reset our IDL and go into the draft without massive needs.
Something like: Extend Harris (to lower his cap), cut Jefferson and Mone/Woods and replace them with Hargrave/Payne and Tomlinson/Z. Allen/Dre’Mont Jones there would be no need for a DT in this draft but for BPA.
If Meyer is there at #20 he would probably be the BPA and I would love the pick. Maybe we would trade Fant if we get him and get a middle round pick back and save his salary (6,8). Beside Dissly and his hugh cap hit in 2024 we have no TE beyond next season.
No, I wouldn’t advocate for relying on just a rookie to turn around the pass rush. But if we can add a top DT in FA as you suggest and then draft an edge rusher at #20, that could help elevate the whole unit. Maybe Mafe and Taylor make huge strides forward next season, but at this point it may be wise to get the next guy onto the roster as far as our edge rushers go.
That said, I’m certainly not against drafting Mayer at #20 if available.
Trading Fant is definitely an option as well. It seems he does have some admirers around the league. Dissly will likely be extended if they want to lower his 2024 cap hit (which btw is “only” $10m compared to 2023’s $9m, so not that big of a jump up), hopefully for a more moderate sum this time around…
Can we finally see a defense without Bruce Irvin please?
Brock Huard mentioned that the NFL 2023 draft is deep in Tight ends and running backs. Huard mentioned that there are about 7 running backs in this draft that he would love to see in a Seahawk uniform.
The drafting of Aaron Curry and the other things they did was why JS/PC was hired the next year so you can’t blame them for that pick.
Pretty sure he means Brooks.
I also like Sanders and feel LB is one of our greatest needs.
Yes, quality DL to occupy blockers free up the LB to make plays, and I like Brooks who knows how he comes back from injury? Barton to be our best LB to start season….haha, you have to be kidding.
20, from all tghe mocks and simulations I’ve ran is a tough spot, seems the talent 20-35 or so is all equal as far as value for position.
I would hope for a trade down, perhaps get a 2nd rounder and get Sanders at the end of round.
ESPN article matches us with the #3 FA:
Of course, they also have Geno at #5 and say we should run it back with him…
I was trying to think of a way for the Hawks to give the impression they are keeping their options open at #5 while still intending to draft a QB at #5.
The way I see it is signing a young QB whos potential is still “untapped” even if it’s just on the surface.
At the same time we don’t want to over pay for potential. We just want to look like we’ve made a commitment.
So my question is how much would a contract for Drew Lock, Huntley or Gardner Minshew cost?
If we could get them at 2-3 years with the bulk of the contract hitting in 2024 it would open up options at #5 while also not costing us a huge 20-30 m a year. That said, im not even close to understanding contracts. But I really feel like so many people in our area love Minshew that the local fan base would be happy. General media would consider it case closed, the Hawks are going defense or trading back. And most are not even considering a QB to the Hawks. Just some random musings…
Good day all!
I don’t think Minshew would fit in a Carroll offense based on arm strength alone.
Thanks for the write up Rob. Excellent as always.
With the Rams scheme of sliding tackles in to the guard position, what are your thoughts on Jaxson Kirkland? He was a good tackle prior to his injury and slid into guard this last year. Maybe we could pick him up on day three to compete with Haynes and Lewis for a starting job.
I think he’ll be an UDFA. Did ok at shrine game but the injury history is an issue
Just read that Nick Bellore is going to make $3.75 mil this year. At first that made me extremely upset. Then I thought, they no longer have enough money to sign Geno so we will draft a quarterback. Now I am happy. If this is irrational logic please don’t rain on my parade today. It has been a rough couple days. Thanks.
I can see the Seahawks trading back to the Panthers if neither Anderson or Carter become available. I’d pick Will Levis but if the Panthers get outbid by Colts an/or others, it makes perfect sense for Hawks to pick up some picks and restock.
Why does it make perfect sense to let the Panthers draft a QB they want so badly they’re willing to trade up for him… that you can have without trading up?
Sure, seems like 4 million is a lot of money for Phil Haynes. It seems sure like the Hawks are overpaying some of their free agents. For example, the contracts of Haynes, Diggs and Will Dissly. Seem to be on the pricey side.