Here is my post-combine updated horizontal board. It now includes 227 graded players. I will keep adding and adjusting as the pro-day data comes in.
Click the image to enlarge the board and I’ve got some notes below…
— It’s a top-heavy tight end class. I think if you don’t take one in the top-65 you probably miss out but there are seven TE’s who could justifiably go in that range, which is unheard of.
— I’ve been doing the rounds since the combine asking about positional strengths and a source in the league told me it was a really good safety class for depth. Upon reflection, as you can see on the board, the numbers are definitely there. It’s also worth noting that at the combine the safeties showed better hips and change of direction than many of the cornerbacks. It’s also a really well-built group with good size. There are some serious options here.
— Rounds 3-5 should be where the interior linemen become acceptable. There are some intriguing options but not many. This will likely concern teams in need of interior blockers and it might be why we see the likes of John Michael Schmitz and Luke Wypler get a bump up some boards at center. It’s also likely why the Seahawks moved quickly to re-sign Phil Haynes.
— It’s a strange ‘edge’ class because there are certainly a lot of names on the board but few really stand-out on tape (or their testing was average). We might see some reaching here but it looks like a lot of early day-three types to me.
— Interior defenders? Oh dear. The depth falls off a cliff very quickly. Fill your boots early or risk missing out. The good news is there are good players available early but not many.
— The numbers are really there at cornerback but there’s not a sure-fire top-five pick this year. I think it’s a position you can wait on and get a player who you can mould to be as good as the top guys.
— It’s a very thin offensive tackle class and that could mean we see reaching in round one as teams desperately try to address a premium position.
— Receiver has been a loaded position for a number of years but not this year. It’s a far weaker group. There are some good players but once you get into round three there are a lot of question marks and the position veers towards ‘average’ very quickly. I think it’s a 10 receiver draft where if you don’t get one, you probably just leave it and see what’s left among the veteran pool.
— Running back has depth and there’s a bit of everything depending on your positional preferences — speed, power, explosion, receiving threats, short-yardage. The Seahawks should have no problem adding a couple to their depth chart.
— It’s top-heavy at quarterback. The top-four are assured to go in the top-10, I’m led to believe, with a strong chance four go in the top-five. Hendon Hooker might join the group due to the attraction of the fifth year option, although he’d likely be a late first rounder. Then, there’s no middle tier. All of the middle-tier quarterbacks returned to school. If you’re thinking Seattle can take a flier on someone in the middle rounds, no dice I’m afraid. I have two players in the fourth round but that’s purely because the arm talent is decent. They’re both about 190lbs. There’s not a lot of potential to start in the NFL.
— I’ve interviewed some of the players and I’ve watched press conferences and interviews with most others. I’m pleased to say, with a few notable exceptions, this is a high-character, engaging class of players. There are a lot of very good talkers, a lot of inspirational speakers and many alpha-types — which makes a nice change. From that stand-point, I think teams will be very happy.
Player spotlights
I wanted to touch on some players I’ve revised and re-watched in the process of writing this board.
Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
His stock might be falling a bit because he didn’t run at the combine or his pro-day. There are fears he’s a 4.5 runner and that could damage his stock. What I will say though is the guy is an absolute psycho on the field (in a good way). He is a taker of souls. There isn’t a tougher, harder hitting player in the class. Furthermore, he just carries himself with this unbelievable swagger. He is going to go out there and compete, leave a mark and he will upgrade the physicality on your team from minute one. I don’t think the Seahawks are going to take a cornerback in round one, especially one who likely runs in the 4.5’s. However, if he lasts to #20, you can make a realistic argument that he’d easily be the best player on the board in that situation. I’m seeing more and more mocks dropping him into the late teens.
Zacch Pickens (DT, South Carolina)
What an underrated player. He was tremendous at the Senior Bowl, he ran a 4.89 at 291lbs and he has 34.5 inch arms. Pickens has a fantastic thickness to his lower body. Big, heavy thighs full of power. He carries almost no bad weight and he’s a pure athlete. In Mobile he would straight-arm to leverage then swim away from contact. He was too quick during team scrimmages and shot gaps numerous times. He can play as a three-technique or a 3-4 defensive end. I get the feeling in four years we’ll be asking ‘how did this guy last as long as he did in the draft?’
Sydney Brown (S, Illinois)
Fantastic character, range, hitting, playmaking. Brown has it all. He flies around the field and gives absolutely everything. He showed off great athleticism and versatility at the Senior Bowl and then ran a 4.47 at the combine, adding a 40.5 inch vertical. Don’t be surprised if he goes a lot higher than people are projecting. You can play him in numerous positions and he’s going to quickly develop into a heart-and-soul type in the locker room. There are several players at this position who ooze ‘alpha’ and Brown’s one of them.
Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
Why isn’t he talked about more? He has great size (6-2, 220lbs) with huge hands (10.5 inches). He ran a 4.46 and posted a 40-inch vertical. He was gliding at the Senior Bowl, easily creating separation. On tape he can line up as a big-slot or split out wide. He can break off big plays downfield and he tracks the ball superbly in the air. He runs such good routes and knows how to gain position or create subtle separation to make plays on the shorter stuff. He can box-out with his frame and he can win contested catches with his explosive athleticism. Mingo also has soft hands and just looks like a class-act. It’s crazy why he doesn’t get more attention.
John Michael Schmitz (C, Minnesota)
I really studied him last week after the links connecting him to Seattle. Schmitz does a tremendous job shooting his hands inside. You want all players at his position to do this but many have to redirect and regain positioning. I was impressed how consistently Schmitz puts his hands in the right place. It’s so advantageous for him when engaging front-on. That’s where he excels. He can get his hands inside, leverage and he has the strong back to bunny-hop to regain control when he’s shoved backwards. Where he struggles at times is when he’s attacked at an angle. He lacks the athleticism to cut off from the sides and I think it’ll be best for him to play next to bigger guards to clog up that space. He’s not the athlete Luke Wypler is but he’s better technically with his hands.
Some Seahawks thoughts
I still think the key to Seattle’s draft is Arizona’s decision at #3. I don’t think they’re going to get an attractive enough offer to move down (unless the Colts basically flip picks at #4). Do they take Tyree Wilson instead of Will Anderson, as projected by Daniel Jeremiah? Wilson is arguably a better scheme fit for Jonathan Gannon but Anderson is the culture re-setter the Cardinals need.
If C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young and Will Levis are the first quarterbacks off the board — which I think is increasingly likely — my prediction continues to be it’ll come down to Anthony Richardson at #5 or Will Anderson if the Cardinals pass on him. I think the Seahawks would take Anderson in that scenario because he’s an ideal scheme fit, he’s an A+ alpha and he can be someone you build around on defense. I don’t think he’s a special talent but he can be a very good player and it would be a safe pick for Seattle.
If that happened, they would likely — in my opinion — push the quarterback situation into the future and embrace a scenario where they have to go fishing for middle-tier options in from 2024. Or they could look at Hendon Hooker, who has some serious fans in the scouting community (I know, having spoken to some of them).
If Anderson is gone and they take Richardson, they will have to address their defensive line in the #20, #38, #53 range, possibly with two picks. Those options will dry up otherwise. If they want an ‘edge’ type they could pivot to Will McDonald instead (he had been training with B.T. Jordan) or they could wait to tap into the depth later. The interior D-line options will run out quickly.
Jalen Carter will not be an option for the Seahawks in round one. I don’t like writing stuff like that because typically you set yourself up for a fall. On this occasion, I am 100% confident. Carter will not be a first rounder for Seattle.
I’m also not convinced Tyree Wilson is a scheme fit. It will depend on testing whether they believe he can play as a bigger OLB/EDGE.
I think what they’ve done so far pretty much sets up the scenario I’m talking about at #5. They haven’t signed another ‘edge’ rusher. They do have Uchenna Nwosu, Boye Mafe and Darrell Taylor but there’s room for one more and Nwosu is a free agent next year. I also think the quarterback situation lends itself perfectly to Richardson.
I don’t know why anyone thought the Drew Lock signing made a QB pick less likely. The whole point with Richardson is he needs to sit for a year. That means a redshirt, not being the backup. Not being a play away from starting at any point in 2023.
You were always going to need a backup quarterback if your plan was to draft Richardson, so he can have his proper redshirt season. Lock, on a cheap one-year contract with minimal guarantees, is perfect. He knows the offense, he knows the team. He can start if Geno Smith gets hurt without the rookie needing to ruin his redshirt season.
Meanwhile Smith’s contract is perfectly structured to move on when the new quarterback is ready, whenever that is. They’ve set-up the ideal situation — the Alex Smith-to-Patrick Mahomes crossover.
I’ve also seen it argued that they can’t justify spending so much on the quarterback position to have someone like Richardson sit for a year. Really? They are literally paying Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams $36m. On top of that, they’ve now added Julian Love and retained Ryan Neal. Are we honestly going to try and suggest you can pay well over $40m for the safety position but can’t carry a redshirt rookie contract at the most important position in football? That’s ridiculous.
The table has been set for either Anderson or Richardson at #5. Personally, I’d be happy with either.
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YESSSSSS!!!
“Today’s the day! The updated horizontal board day!”
Peter doing an impersonation of Rob doing the Georgia pro day recap video.
All is right in the world when I have Rob’s newest board. Thank you.
“It’s a top-heavy tight end class.”
I’ve been hoping the depth at the top end of this TE class could help Mayer slide a little but he probably won’t make it down to 20. For me, getting one of these Day 1/2 TE’s is a way bigger priority than getting a WR in the first 2 days. This TE class is better than this WR class, the Seahawks already have 2 great WRs, and the Seahawks like using one or more TEs more than most teams seem to.
Agreed. I think it makes a ton of sense to tap into this class in round 1 or 2.
At that point they could potentially trade Fant or Parkinson for a late round pick.
I’m with you Matt, I think one of the top 3-4 TEs in this draft would make a massive impact on the offense. We play with TEs on the field so often that it creates more options than what the WR3 would. Mayer would be perfect but even if here’s there, it seems like there will be many other temptations at #20.
I think I would disagree with you if it came down to Downs or a top TE (other than Mayer). Like if I can draft lockett 2.0 with the #20 pick, im doing that every day possible.
30 year old Lockett 1.0 is already a fantastic compliment to DK Metcalf and I believe he will age (relatively) well.
I think Lockett will age well but a receiver from this class would likely have a 4 year contract. Will Tyler be what he is in 2027?
Tyler Lockett is currently entering his age 31 season. There’s almost zero chance Tyler Lockett will still be as effective in 2027 at 35 years old. WRs trend to drop off a cliff in their early 30s, and if the few that don’t, almost every one is a sure first 1st ballot all time great type WR.
It may not happen this year, but his replacement needs to come soon, and we will soon need to enjoy whatever he gives us instead of counting and relying on him as we do now.
What if you could draft a Kelce 2.0 at #20?
If you hit a HR with the pick, I don’t think it will matter if it’s a WR, TE or EDGE.
I’ve been watching some Laporta vids today. I’m not sure he has the size Seattle likes but man is he awesome in the passing game. And if you watch iowa’s offense it looks a lot like ours at times. A lot of rollout crossers and heavy use of the te’s.
Does anyone have a link to a site that has updated workout numbers from the pro days? Thanks.
I assume the WORST case scenario would be, Will Levis and Jalen Carter are available at pick 5 and they don’t like Will Levis (Jalen Carter is totally out) in this case I really wouldn’t know which player they would select, Tyree Wilson as Rob mentions doesn’t fit.
They might really like Levis. I could see JS being really high on Levis.
Well, I think John Schneider will love Levis.
And it’ll never come down to Carter as an option at #5. He won’t be an option.
I suspect they’d actually prefer Levis to Richardson so… Nightmare might be Bryce Young, since physically he’s not the ideal, though they certainly had no problem with Russ.
Watching tape on that guy, it would hardly be a “nightmare”…
Good to hear, I haven’t watched much tape on him since I always figured he’d be taken.
Levis is easily the best pick at #5 and that is considering the potential of all 4 top quarterbacks. Pair Levis with Mayer and this offense is set for 10 years. Although, I highly doubt this is even possible
To Justaguy: had the exact same thought when I saw their combine interviews.
Levis & Mayer would be a great duo for the next 5-10 years. Together with metcalf, lockett and walker III =Super bowl offense
Man, if Anderson and Richardson were both there at #5, I’d have a hard time not taking the QB.
It just feels like there are DL options at #20 or early in round two. Whereas there are zero options for QB.
If you’re looking at the theoretical options being Anderson & Hooker vs Richardson & McDonald I’d take the second pairing every time.
We are not likely to be in a position to draft a top QB anytime in the foreseeable future. Take the opportunity. What a gift it would be for a team that will be competing for the playoffs every year to get their QB of the future.
If they take Anderson at five, I pass on the QB’s personally
I 100% agree and it would make me sad. Not coming out of the Wilson trade with a QB to continue the rebuild would be tough. Kicking the can and looking for mid-tier options in 2024 and 2025 would be a pothole filled road. Love everything you are doing Rob! Now to deep dive into the horizontal board.
Agreed, not coming out of the RW trade with a potential long term answer at QB just feels underwhelming. If I’m the Seahawks I’m not passing on Richardson for an edge rusher that doesn’t even project to be an elite talent.
Not even a flyer on Hooker if he is there in the 2nd round?
I don’t really see the point. He’s a year younger than Lock with an acl injury. Didn’t play in a pro style offense. Lock has been here for a year. Knows the offense. Was productive in college. Also a 2nd round pick. Has all the tools you want.
I know youre fine with Anderson at 5, but if Richardson is on the board and you punt on a QB, that just seems like a whiff and a missed opportunity to get a potential long term answer at QB which is the most important position on the field. DE can be addressed with later picks. The only decent prospect after the top 4 is Hooker and hes old and has a torn acl….
Exactly. And it’s much harder to find a franchise QB and it’s the literal most important position in football.
Indy trading up to #3 really makes a lot of sense. They assure themselves their choice of the two remaining qbs, and Arizona assuring themselves of their favorite non-qb, presumably Anderson, while also adding some draft capital from the Colts.
Rob, what would the cost be for them to move up from 4 to 3?
In 2017, the Bears moved from #3 to #2 on draft day for the #67 pick (R3) and #111 pick (R4) plus a third rounder in the following draft.
I suspect something like that could get it done, to make sure they get the QB they want and nobody else can jump in.
That’ll depend on the Colts though. Something spooked the Bears in 2017 to feel like they had to get up to #2. Indy might be more restrained.
Wouldn’t that mean somebody else had an offer and they had to beat? Unless the team was bluffing. It’s hard to figure out what exactly teams know under these scenarios.
Also if AZ had an offer from the Raiders, but weren’t sure about moving down that far, would they go to the Colts and say, “Hey, we got an offer from the Raiders we are strongly considering, you want to make a deal with us to make sure you get your quarterback?” Kind of a win/win.
Makes sense, thanks
Yay! Awesome stuff…so many options! John has shown his moxy these past 12 months…keep it up JS!
Are you even considering a trade back at this point?
No trade scenario makes sense to me to consider it a worthy topic
They already have 10 picks. Time to build a roster.
Schneider has done the math on salary cap impacts from trading back to 9 so there is some thought about the possibilities in the Seattle FO. And he has a background of trading back. Especially if they might be able to add some draft capital in 2024.
Honestly if it’s Bryce Young or trade back at 5, I would prefer a trade back.
Plus, having extra picks could allow you to move around (ie, up) more and grab a guy you don’t want to miss out on in rounds 2 or 3, perhaps.
People are making more of that than they need to
The reason he knows the math is simple. They picked ninth overall a year ago. They know how much Charles Cross cost. They know how much the #5 pick will cost. It’s not like they’ve done any homework here.
The thing I come back to over and over in this odd draft….
What player falls to five, that Seattle does not want, and/or what is the player at say 5-8 that Seattle doesn’t want…but some team between Chicago at nine and say pick 14 covets so badly that they NEED to get ahead of other teams for?
It’s not just dollars. It’s matching value. If there were tackles this would make a ton of sense. Houston “needs,” to jump vegas for say anderson as an example…it just doesn’t pencil out.
It’s like the trades back at 20. Who does it? Why? And who is that high third or very late second round pick player that makes it worth it?
Say we move back from 20 but giants get smart and trade in front of us and we now miss Macdonald, jms, white, ade ade, Washington. (20 to 25) and now we’re left with “lj collier face?”
If Bryce Young is the QB who slips to 5 there are teams that would trade up for him. Half the teams have him as the top QB on their board.
There are some teams rating Tyree Wilson on par with Will Anderson. I don’t think Wilson is a scheme fit for Seattle but I could maybe see a 4-3 team interested in trading up.
If you got a pick in the 10-15 range, you would get a great player and the extra Day 2 pick would be nice. There will be DL, WRs, C, LB, Edge, and TEs on the Board.
No, no, no
Just to play devils advocate, if someone offers 3 first round picks plus, you might have to do it just based on pure value. not my preferred route but if someone gets desperate/crazy then that could be the move. I put it at a low likelihood tho
That isn’t going to happen though is it
http://mrwgifs.com/so-youre-telling-me-theres-a-chance-in-dumb-and-dumber-gif/
I think it could – with Washington having new ownership they might want a QB or Tampa could want a QB that much and have to give up that much to get into top 5
There is zero chance
If they are planning that, they would move up to #3, not #5
I’m just going to join in piling on the praise for Mingo.
I just re-watched all the Senior Bowl WR/DB 1v1s and he was on another level compared to everyone there, almost like Deebo was in his year. (not comparing him to Deebo, just saying that’s the kind of distance there was between him and the other WRs there)
One of my favorite reps. Look how quickly he eats up the cushion. Look at the explosion out of his break. The nice body control on the acrobatic catch. Compare it to Iosivas’ rep right after. Even though on paper he tested similarly, he looks like he’s running in slow motion compared to Mingo.
https://youtu.be/VivA7J7nXAM?t=229
10 3/8 mitts, too!
During the last podcast, Rob asked Robbie what scenario at pick #5, would make him mad.
I’ll answer this question: If Richardson is available at #5 and we pass on him… that will really piss me off.
Anderson might not even be the best pass rushing edge in the draft. I love his character and he’ll likely be a good to very good player…
…but how can you pass on a QB with the potential of Richardson if he falls into your lap?
Especially for and edge who doesn’t project to be an elite player?
My biggest *fear* is that only Young and Wilson will be available to us at #5.
If this scenario happens, I’d hope that they strongly consider trading back.
I agree completely. There will be good pass rushers avaible at 20. Perhaps even Will McDonald who I think could be as good or better than Anderson.
There will not be good QB options at that point or any point later in the draft.
Why do people think taking a QB at 5 is a bad idea but taking Hendon Hooker at 38 is a good idea. There are lots of good position players in Rd 2 there are no good QB options so this make no sense to me. Hooker is only a year younger than Drew Lock for god sakes and he is a developmental project.
If Richardson, Stroud, Levis or Young are there then make the pick. Get a potential QB of the future then worry about the OL / DL at 20, 38, 53.
This is where Im at as well. Anderson just doesnt move the needle much for me, and I think passing on a QB with as much upside in Richardson for a good not great edge rusher, just seems like a huge missed opportunity and a whiff…..
I don’t think Young makes it to us, but I think we’d be crazy not to take him if he does.
A couple more Senior Bowl 1v1 notes:
Dang, Jayden Reed can play! Fast and quick. Plus returner. Strong hands. Plus YAC and tough to bring down/runs through arm tackles. Intrigued to go watch more and see if his potential can match his 2021 season production.
Jayden Reed 🔥 Scariest WR in College Football ᴴᴰ
https://youtu.be/e5m8g7OQl5o
Rob mentions Sydney Brown. He won almost every rep at the Senior Bowl.
The QBs were horrific. Bummer that the WRs didn’t even have a chance to make a play on about 1/3 of the balls…
Seems like a good, likeable guy too.
Jayden Reed | Spartans All-Access | Michigan State Football
https://youtu.be/yQLmrnFPSzI
Rob thank you so much! I also appreciate how you’ve slightly adjusted up Hendon Hooker’s grade. I really like him as an individual who fits the high chacracter theme of last year.
Unrelated q: do you think Anderson is DE1 and McDonald is DE2 for them? As you’ve noted, I just can’t picture a more Seahawky DE prospect than Will McD. The dude is so long and lanky and he started playing football late in life.
Dumb q from me–of course you think he’s #2 in their minds…that’s why you wrote it down in the board. Sorrrrry
Thanks Rob, I’ll def be bookmarking this and returning to it, especially during the draft.
Really interesting to see how thick some position groups are, DBS are just super stacked, RBs and WRs seem to have a lot of depth as well.
Maybe an interesting exercise would be to think of needs, think of the given depth, and then estimate what number of picks they would make per position.
Looking at their current roster depth (thanks previous commenter) https://twitter.com/CorbinSmithNFL/status/1637492671991234560, you can almost guarantee picks at RB, Guard, DT (Woods old), Center (brown good but hedge). Add in QB of the future, DE/Edge help, TE/WR3, thats already 7 picks, and they could double dip on certain positions.
Would maybe make a fun gamble to bet the total number of picks at each position…Robbie already all in with Richardson going #1 but ya fun thought exercise
You could add Safety as another really likely draft pick ASSUMING the plan is to move on from both diggs/adams after this year, throw in a linebacker for competition and thats nearly your whole draft spoken for.
SDB
The gift that keeps on giving.
Rob, given the massive gravity of this upcoming draft, are you planning of doing a full live stream of round 1 or are you going to preserve your energy and sanity, and stick to streaming a recap for R1?
I like to sit and watch the draft so won’t be live streaming during it
But I will do a live-blog as usual and post video reaction when I can, then do live-streams at the end of each day
Al Woods cut. That’s a surprise – where do they go at NT at this point?
I’ve no idea what the plan is here
They have zero depth up front and no nose tackle
This only creates $3.6m so hardly loads to spend
And while there are options, it’s not a deep DT class. Flirting with backing themselves into a corner with the DL in the draft unless they have something up their sleeve
Current depth chart:
DE — Jones, Adams
NT — Mone? Is he even going to be able to play?
DE — Reed
That… is really, really, really thin
Yeah with that depth… only acceptable reason I could see them justifying a release is having concerns over the heel/achilles injury he dealt with last year being one that continues.
“Jalen Carter at #5 confirmed!”
Not because it makes sense or is even preferable but because local media will lead with confirmation bias.
Ugh.
Maybe they feel that Poona’s more natural position is NT and something is in the works there. This must also be indicative of draft plans as well.
Wow. Wasn’t expecting that!
Only way it makes sense is if they already agreed to terms with another free agent. Not sure I like it.
Robinson still on his visit to NY?
Haven’t heard a peep.
It is a curious move, especially since big Al was playing pretty well. I have to trust there is a method to this madness and they have a plan!
They’ve always had a Plan but their Plan sucked from 2013-2020. Let’s all hope McCloughan is having heavy influence on their current Plan, because the pairing of JS and PC had nearly a decade of screwing up and riding Russ’s coattails to early playoff losses to prove they didn’t have The Right Stuff.
And hey, Carrol having less say in the draft is working, let’s hope it continues.
But as for them having a Plan….pardon me whilst I vomit…
This caught me off guard even though his age flagged him as a possible cut. His level of play last year was solid. He was respected by his teammates. His contract seemed reasonable. The plan can’t be Mone and I don’t think bringing back Poona is a scheme fit.
It means Campbell and Buckner, right?
Seattle are going to send Noah Fant and the 52nd overall pick to Tennessee for Jeffery Simmons and the 71st overall pick.
They will then target Cameron Young with that 71st pick.
That’s their plant at NT.
The difference in cap hit between Fant and Simmons is Al Woods’ $3.6m
Jeffrey Simmons would cost, at a minimum, the same as Frank Clark
Likely more
There’s no way they’ll get him for Fant and a 20-pick drop
Simmons is a top-tier defensive tackle in a league desperate for them. He’s going to be paid in Tennessee and kept at all costs.
I am fuzzy on the details. Maybe it’s pick 37 plus a 2024 R2/3.
Maybe Al Woods is retiring?
They’ve handled this offseason so smartly so far that I’m going to believe they have something in the works with a FA and won’t back themselves into a corner at NT (though it seems even more likely now they’ll draft one as well).
Mazi Smith?
Hope so my man.
Get smith great. Miss on smith…..not sure I’ve seen any obvious NT I like.
2 steps forward, 1 step back is better than previous years of 1 step forward, 2 steps back
If you don’t think Anderson is a special talent I don’t want him at #5. Rather we trade down or get QB. Don’t mind trading back in mid teens if it means a 1st for 2024.
Side note what happend to Andseron I read multiple articles last year he was a better prospect Nick Bosa, Myles Garret and Von Miller. Maybe he didn’t go as hard fearing injuries or he was found lacking?
He’s never been a better prospect than those three and there’s no shame in that — they are elite level players
This is kind of where the disconnect is for me and why I hope AZ takes Anderson at 3. I don’t want the Hawks to blunder this opportunity by punting on a QB and settling for merely a “good but not elite” edge rusher. A long term answer at QB is more important and harder to find than a good edge rusher. If Richardson is on the board at 5, I don’t care if Anderson is there, u take the damn QB and address the edge rusher later. You aren’t getting another opportunity like this likely ever again.
Al Woods released. Must be pretty confident they can get someone like Mazi Smith.
Will Anderson / Keanu Banton / Schmitz/Wypler / M. Smith would be ideal. I do like the idea of Hendon Hooker if we miss out at QB on 5, but think its pretty necessary to address C/NT and the talent seems to be in the second for those spots.
Would love to see the Hawks add the QB of the future then focus on the trenches early. Then find a legit WR3 and add RB depth later in the draft.
#5 Anthony Richardson – Highest upside QB in years
#20 Will McDonald – I think he is the most natural pass rusher in the class with incredible bend.
#38 Mazi Smirh – Athletic Freak and true NT the Hawks need.
#53 Luke Wypler – Hawks get the Center they need.
#84 Johnathan Mingo – Perfect WR3 and potential steal in Rd 3
#123 Moro Ojomo- Ideal DE for the Hawks scheme
#151 Dorian William- Fast and aggressive LB
#153 Roschon Johnson- Solid RB who played behind Bijan
#198 Evan Hull- Power Back to go with Walker and Johnson
#237 Terrel Smith – pro type Hawks developmental CB
Pretty solid Trevor
I could definitely get on board with this as things stand now.
I would love this draft Trevor.
Don’t know the plan yet but I love that they are attacking change in the front 7.
Been too many stop gaps for too long on the DL
Excited to see what they do with Woods gone.
I’m happy to attack change
But the depth is looking dangerously thin
And they barely have any money left
Totally Agreed. Must have a plan. Mini cap hell makes it even more interesting…
Thanks for putting this together.
How the front office continues to address the DLine will be interesting to see. The system needs 4 edge rushers and 6/7 DLinemen (4 DEs & 2/3 DTs) for gameday. So — like you said — there’s room for 1 more on the edge (McDonald/Ojulari), then 2 DEs (Kancey/Ade²/Young) and 1 or 2 DTs (Smith).
The Hawks will also need to go heavy on RBs. If they take 2, I’d like to see Charbonnet in the 2nd and if we could land Tucker past the 4th that would be a steal. They both meet the the size parameters that Hawks would ideally like to see in their backs and have really good speed. Charbonnet adds a dynamic element to the passing game, while Tucker leaves a lot to be desired on that front.
Here is hoping that the draft falls in our favor. Cheers!
Hawks cut Woods
Release Jamal Adams
Extend Nwosu
Sign A’shawn Robinson,
Bring back Shelby Harris on cheaper deal
Draft Mazi Smith
Draft Moro Ojomo
2023 DL Rotation
DT – Robinson, Smith, Reed, Harris, Ojomo , Jones
That would be a really good group IMO.
Calais Campbell or Harris. Either or.
Sounds good to me.
Feels inevitable there going to move on from Jamal adams after drafting a safety, especially if his recovery isn’t going well.
Seems there looking for building guys in the younger core defense. That Jamal trade happened well before the rebuild started
Bucc’s restructured Vea’a contract and if I’m understanding correctly he’d be quite cheap this year. And we can certainly afford him going forward if we have a rookie QB…he’s only 28yo and NT is really important to this scheme. Pete said he wanted to get bigger and stronger…
Dammit. I fat fingered it again. This wasn’t meant to be a reply but a normal post. Sorry
Your thumb moves like Jalen Carter in bag drills.
You’re not……lying. Sorry. Had to take a break while typing that
😂
That was hella funny Palatypus
Lol
It would cost the Buccs $21m for him to play for us
So it’s not happening
Woods released – Seattle trades for:
*Quinnen Williams?
*Jonathan Allen?
*DeForest Buckner?
*Grover Stewart?
My guess – signing A’Shawn Robinson?
I’m guessing Vea and I’d be hyped.
My guess —- Poona Ford
Never thought of that. Sure can see it
Definitely a draft pick too
That is my guess too and I don’t like it. Poona did not play well at NT (or any other position) last year.
Resign Harris?
Hey Cha… if you’re floating around I’ve got a question. Looking at Vea’s current contract on spotrac. Do I understand correctly he’s only making a base salary of just over 1 million this year with a cap hit of 6.5? I feel like we could cover that
The dead cap hit for Tampa Bay is $21m
So they can’t trade him
Disappointing. Would’ve been something that really raised the bar if it was feasible.
You do, but hit the dropdown menu and select trade.
$21m dead cap hit and it would cost them an extra $15m on the cap to trade Vea. They’d be in violation of the cap limit if they traded Vea. They’d have to cut or trade more players just to get back under the cap. Major net negative.
Ah didn’t see that. New to playing with the salary cap sites. Thanks! That’s disappointing. Would’ve really amped up my excitement with a trade like that
I have 2 questions for you Rob.
1. How far do you think Jalen Carter falls? Are we talking to the point of UDFA? Are we talking the 2nd round? What is the realistic range he could go?
2. At what point do you think, if at all, Seattle would take a chance on Carter if he were to fall?
1. I don’t know
2. Probably at no point
Grumpy as I am, I’m not totally out of it. JS and PC are up to something, and hard put to do much due to cash flow limitations because of the Teams slowly pending sale and their own cap bungling: but they aren’t going into the draft without a NT at least.
Now I’m curious…
Great work as usual Rob. Thanks.
Once again I am wishing the Seahawks had 4-5 2nd round picks. How can this be arranged? I will settle for the same number of 3rd and 4th round picks the 49ers have!
Based on Rob’s notes and the board above, draft a QB at 5 if there is one. Get a TE, DT and Center before the end of round 2. Then get a RB, G, Edge and LB before the end of round 4. Then pick up what is still needed in 5-7.
That general and very loose plan is subject to opportunities and special talents. Also, I have three of the first four picks spent on offense if a QB is there.
Devon Witherspoon sounds like an improved version of Richard Sherman. Maybe a hybrid of the legion of boom. No testing might be a blessing and if he drops the Seahawks might benefit.
I’ve praised the Seahawks a lot but also, we have to note this
They are now scrimping for money
They are paying Quandre Diggs $18m this year
While the safety market collapses and guys like CGJ have to settle for one year deals for half the price of Diggs
Not to mention the Dissly deal
And signing a bunch of player they had to cut a year later, wasting dead money
They have put themselves in unnecessary cap trouble
I have to believe more cuts are inevitable
There’s only one player left to realistically cut
Cue dramatic music.
Duhn, duhn, duhn duhn !!!
Let’s get it done then!! And while they’re at it, pull another one of those levers by extending Nwosu!
https://media.giphy.com/media/8gX3QNtSeZyVVdfnk8/giphy.gif
Meant to reply to Rob’s 1 player left to cut post with a NBC peacock gif, defaults to home page.
Did they have to cut Woods to clear cap for the Love and Bush contracts? I haven’t seen the numbers on those 2 contracts, yet.
No. They would need to make some cuts at some point to cover for injuries during the season. But, they had enough for the current roster and their draft picks.
Tennessee asked Kevin Byard to take a pay cut to reduce his $19m cap hit this year.
He hasn’t missed a single game in his professional career to injury and is an excellent player. The Titans still think he’s too expensive.
Remember when the Texans shipped Oswieler off to the Cleveland Browns. It cost them a second-round pick to have the Browns take that contract. I think you are looking at a similar situation if you want to dump Jamal Adams and his contract. Not sure if there would be any takers, though.
Bramal Adamsweiler?
Different issue. Houston needed to unload $16m of guaranteed salary.
Adams only has $2.56m guaranteed on the rest of his contract.
See you highlighted Pickens Rob and said some positive things about him. Also see you have a 3rd round grade for him. I’m reminded that many drafts back, the Seahawks got a fine DT in round 3 in Brandon Mebane. Does Pickens compare favorably to him and can you see them targeting him there? If my old guy mind isn’t totally shot, I think I remember you saying before that draft that selecting Mebane was close to inevitable. Any chance you have that sense with Pickens in light of the release of Woods?
I have a R2 grade on Pickens
I think they’re very different players — Pickens more lean and more of an athlete
Quick clarification if you don’t mind.
How does a redshirt year in the NFL work relative to the collegiate level? Is it to save a year on the rookie deal from accruing sort of deal? Is there a maximum number of snaps threshold where the player burns the redshirt?
What is the difference with the NFL redshirt?
Thanks
It’s just a term we use to describe not starting a player in year one
Cha, I believe we were in the Red with our Effective Cap Space prior to the Woods release.
Is that correct?
I’m including practice squad.
More or less, yeah.
So to improve before the draft we need to move some money around.
Extending Nwosu and asking Adams to take a pay cut would be the next 2 steps I’d choose so we can add a younger NT.
Without doing something it feels like our Free-agency is about done.
The Al Woods release does seem strange…
I wonder if they expect someone to get released on another team. I remember John mentioning that they have to anticipate who could get cut.
Or they just figure Mazi Smith at 20.
But yes, Diggs and Adams look like albatrosses right now.
The timing is all off for the draft. There has to be another signing somewhere.
A’shawn Robinson will be signed bu the end of the week. At 6-4 330lbs with 34 1/2 inch arms he is the ideal NT in the 3-4 scheme the Hawks want to run. He had been really solid against the run and only 28.
Reed , Robinson, Jones starting at DT would be a massive upgrade over last year.
This. I really hope this means A’Shawn is in the works. Sounds like he left the Giants without a deal.
And yes, what a huge upgrade that would be. Add another couple of quality DL prospects int he early rounds of this draft and we will have a complete overhaul in one offseason,
Would seem like a fit
Robinson def seems like the best option. The only other NT I see available is Derrick Nnadi.
I love how your takes are not just regurgitated from other sources like most every draft analyst. For example, you called out O’Cyrus Torrence pre-combine and have consistently been lower than most everyone on Trenton Simpson. Thanks for all the hard work.
I’m curious on your take on Jack Campbell being rated at round 3 after he blew up the combine. Does it come down to the devaluing of the position? Is he too big? I know round 3 is still high but his production and measurables are enticing.
Maybe you mean round 4?
He didn’t blow up the combine though. He tested better than expected but his numbers were not other-wordly. And they don’t show up on tape where he’s stiff as a board and not a free flowing linebacker at all
“Captain Jack” seems slow and lumbering…like the huge kid in middle school was noticed for his size but slow.
Football coaches like to talk about “mesh points.”
I see a lot of mesh points on this horizontal board that could create carnage. Mass hysteria. Dogs and cats living together.
Why wait until now to cut Al Woods? Makes little sense unless there is an imminent replacement signing.
Bring back Shelby Harris?
Suh is still available, no?
Rob, it seems like throughout the off-season you have been the low man on Ringo and the high man on Brents. So I was a little surprised to see you have Ringo one spot ahead of Brents on this latest big board. Just out of curiosity, would love to hear more details behind that ranking. Thanks!
I wouldn’t read too much into that. I don’t do ‘rankings’ I just do ranges. Those two players have very high upside and similar issues to work through
couple things…did a’shawn ever meet with seattle?
and i’ve seen a few times since the mccloughan interview that he’s been consulting with pcjs. i may have missed it but i only heard him say he’s been working with tampa bay. can anyone confirm?
Do you see any scenario where Houston or Indy do not take a QB at pick 2 or 4? Might be a good exercise to good over some draft scenarios if that were to happen.
Houston yes. Indy no
It’s worth noting the Eagles and Bengals, who the blog has looked at in earlier posts regarding a template to follow for roster building, both carry 6 or 7 Interior Defensive Lineman on their rosters. It allows them to put out different fronts depending on what the opposition is playing or how to exploit oppostion offensive weaknesses. IDL with a range of strengths is important in the modern game.
Seattle need to be adding not subtracting.
Those two teams are fully win-now mode teams though. We’ve just seen with the Eagles that when you build a start D-line on short-term contracts, then there’s a bunch of churn the next year… you basically need to clear them all out and start again.
That target is fine if you think you’re ready for a Superbowl run that year. Are Seattle? No. We’re 1 year away – at least.
Looking at those two teams, plus the Rams in their SB year – the strategy seemed to be to stack the D-Line as the final veneer on the roster, the cherry on top… to push you over the edge.
Al Woods and Shelby Harris etc. are more likely to have retired by the time we are ready for the big game next – so I don’t mind losing them and getting younger on the D-line.
BUT – it’s just a numbers thing at the moment – it’s thread bare thin! Hopefully we’re worrying for nothing and Robinson signs as some are suggesting above.
Contending or not
The Seahawks are dangerously thin up front
At the moment, this defense will not improve unless they find a way to add depth pronto
It can’t just be down to rookies
Curious about Hendon Hooker.
When he drops back in the game against Georgia, he literally just stands like a statue and doesn’t move his feet at all. I’ve never seen any QBs do this before. Is that because he only makes one read? Its so visible who he is staring down each play. I found it really strange.
If they don’t sign A’Shaun what are they possibly going to do at NT? The draft class at the position is terrible. Everybody saying Mazi but he weighed in under 310 at his pro day. Siaki Ika? Looks like a lot of bad weight. Who else? In FA or the draft.
Mazi weighed 323 at the Combine and 319 at his pro day.
https://twitter.com/UMichFootball/status/1636840200620974082/photo/1
Jerrod Clark from costal carolina and Brodick Martin from West kentucky look to have right kinda size for nt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkNA1xEdODE
Former Seahawks LB KJ Wright on QB Anthony Richardson & Jalen Carter
KJ breaks it down in a little over a minute with Brock and Salk. Surprised how Brock shakes his head when KJ praises AR.
Did anyone else hear KJ on Brock and Salk? They talked draft picks and thought Will Anderson would be amazing paired with Uchenna. Anthony Richardson would be his second choice. He talked about two things a lot, bringing back Bobby and drafting anyone but Jalen Carter. He mentioned the red flags, throwing millions of dollars away showing to his pro day out of shape and not finishing, the fact that Tony Dungy just crosses these kinds of players off of his draft board and finished with how the locker room perceived the McDowell fiasco. Really interesting listen. If anyone else heard it, what did you guys think?
Saw this. KJ is the rare explayer who seems to think like a GM snd not a fan.
I’m sorry for Al Woods, but you can’t keep him to play 10 snaps a game. On the other side, you also can’t keep Bellore just for special teams and pay him 4 mil and you can’t keep Jamal Adams for a game every season and pay him 18 mil. I expect us to trade Fant, hopefully extend Nwosu and perhaps also restructure Lockett.
Yup, he was Jalen Carter esque on with his snap counts last season
Rob. Awesome big board, well done 🙏🏻
Immediately curious about your thoughts on where players might go relative to your tiering?
Am sure JS and Team will be doing a league big board and trying to figure out what range they can get certain players.
Would it be possible to estimate a pick range for some of the SDB favorites?
Just a thought that keeps buzzing in my head
Rob, maybe you’ve mentioned this before and I missed it, but which of those day 3 CBs have the height, arm length, and speed that JS/PC look for?
Having seen Tyson Bagent, QB (Shepherd) at the Combine, I expect he fits somewhere on your board. I thought he looked better than most in your 5-7 group.
Rob,
How would compare Anthony Richardson’s throwing ability to other relatively recent “run first” QBs coming out of college? (ie Fields, Hurts, Lamar, Newton). Is he miles off or just a little ways off?