With the combine in the books I have updated the horizontal board, making adjustments based on testing, further tape review, fresh study and information gathering. The board is unlikely to change too much between now and the draft. Tweaks are possible but I’m pretty comfortable where I have the players separated. The biggest changes will come from watching players I’m yet to study and adding them to the board.
Here’s the update (click to enlarge):
A few explanations. The players in red either have current injuries, are recovering from injury or have injury histories. I separate the players in the way I have on the board to create graded tiers. The best in class are in the blue-chip category and I part them from the rest of the players I’d take in round one.
This isn’t about slotting 32 players in the first round range, 32 in the second round etc. It’s about individual grading. Some of these players will go earlier/later than I’ve graded. I’m now going to run through some of the key talking points.
Quarterbacks
I feel pretty good about these rankings and will probably keep them as they are until draft day now. I’ve long thought there was a Caleb Williams tier on his own, Jayden Daniels was QB2 and then it was about working out how the rest follow.
I have Michael Penix Jr as QB3 because of his supreme arm talent. I think it’s the biggest X-factor trait among the remaining quarterbacks. I do have reservations about his elusiveness and improv, the fact he had an eight-game stretch where his completion percentage dropped by 15% and I wonder if he’s too reliant on shot-making downfield. However, he makes throws the majority of quarterbacks can’t even consider. I think he’s worth taking a chance on and although I have him in round two on the board, that’s a reflection of the pro’s and con’s. I understand why a team would select him in round one.
Spencer Rattler is QB4 and I don’t think this will be seen as an ‘out there’ take by some in the league. Having watched all of his 2023 games, you can see a multitude of reasons to be upbeat about his pro-prospects. He’s the only player who played in anything like a pro-style system with a prior NFL play-caller. His offensive line was so bad, combined with competing in the SEC you were given a glimpse of how he’d handle a next-level pressurised environment. There are plenty of examples of anticipation throws, out-of-structure completions, high-level arm strength, extending plays, making conversions with his legs and other such positives. Situation matters and while Rattler’s numbers were not of the level of a Bo Nix or Penix Jr, he did enough on an individual level to impress.
The concerns with Rattler come down to size and how teams view his difficult spell at Oklahoma. They’ll need to analyse whether he has truly developed as a person, or whether he’s simply done what he needs to do to extend his career when things appeared doomed two years ago. That’ll likely make or break his stock because the natural talent is very much there. He’d be an excellent pick for someone like the Rams in round two.
Drake Maye has a lot of the tools you look for in a quarterback but he simply isn’t consistent enough with his technique and decision making. I think you can justify taking him a round earlier than I have graded but he’ll need time and development. He has a high ceiling but I think starting early could cause issues.
J.J. McCarthy has genuine intangible qualities and I’m receptive to the importance of his third-down numbers and completion percentage when scrambling. However, I don’t believe he’s a difference maker as a passer and I think his tape generally is unspectacular, as is the arm strength. You see occasional flashes of brilliance but not enough of it consistently. There are also some head-scratching moments on film. Thus, I think a round two grade is fair all considered — but again, I understand why some teams will consider him a round earlier.
Bo Nix I really struggle with. He played well within himself all week at the Senior Bowl and then did the same during the combine throwing session. He didn’t seem to throw with any anticipation or let it rip in Indianapolis. There are throws on tape where he’s shown he can launch passes with velocity across his body so I’m not sure why he’s been so reserved. I fear that Oregon’s system, which was incredibly protective and user-friendly, has created a player who wants to play it safe and pick his moments when to attack. That’s fine and there are systems in the NFL that won’t mind that. I just prefer players who can improvise and play in the moment. I worry Nix can excel but only in a system that is quite strict and sets things up for him and that he won’t ever be an inspired difference maker.
There aren’t any later round quarterbacks that I’d be inclined to draft after this group is off the board.
Running backs
It’s not a special group but there are players I think could justifiably be taken between picks #55-80. Trey Benson’s physical profile hints at major upside potential and it’s the same with Jaylen Wright. With the way Blake Corum tested, I do think in the right system he could be quite an effective high-carry option. It won’t be surprising if the Chargers invest in him. Jonathan Brooks clearly has talent but the injury is a concern.
I also think Marshawn Lloyd, Ray Davis and Braelon Allen offer early day-three value and that in the final few rounds you might be able to find a gem or two. There’s nobody I’d be running to the podium for, though.
Wide receivers
I’ve never had a positional list as long as the 2024 second round receivers. To have 13 graded in that range speaks to the strength of the position — and several of the players have an excellent opportunity to quickly develop into pro contributors.
I think Brian Thomas Jr’s combine workout separates him from the pack as WR4. There was evidence on tape of an ability to separate downfield and make intriguing plays but I didn’t anticipate a testing session like he delivered.
The biggest movers post-combine are Keon Coleman, Ricky Pearsall and the two Texas receivers. Coleman, despite running a slow forty, looked excellent during on-field drills. His game has never been about pure speed and while there’s definitely some lingering concern about his ability to separate at the next level, I think there’s enough on tape to believe his talent will shine beyond this question mark. I think Adonai Mitchell is a superior player to Xavier Worthy, despite Worthy’s record-breaking forty. Pearsall is a far better athlete than I ever anticipated.
I think we might see a mad rush at this position in the top-60 then a fairly steep drop-off.
Tight ends
There’s a decent crop of ‘worth a shot’ types in this group based on the decent testing numbers (10 yard split, agility testing). However, it’s also not a group where you can feel confident of sufficiently addressing a pivotal need. For example, I doubt the Seahawks with their current situation at the position are banking on solutions with this class and will undoubtedly sign at least one veteran next week.
The biggest riser for me is Ben Sinnott. I thought he was one of the most fun and entertaining players to watch in 2023 — yet in the media, there wasn’t even a hint at the testing profile he showed at Indianapolis. When you then discover he has a similar set of physical traits to Sam LaPorta, it brings a whole new perspective to the tape. I think he’ll go in the top-45, possibly even very early in round two.
Offensive linemen
There’s no doubt in my mind that Taliese Fuagu and Troy Fautanu are the best two offensive linemen in the draft. They’re very athletic, well sized, aggressive, extremely physical, versatile and explosive. Although I think Joe Alt and Olu Fashanu deserve to be taken in the final third of the first round based on talent — I’ve never seen either as the top players at their position within this class. Alt is very tall and rigid and I think will suffer some of the same issues as Mike McGlinchey. Fashanu needs major technical work.
I’ll be very surprised if Fuagu lasts to #16 and I think it’s increasingly likely Fautanu won’t make it that far either.
Caedan Wallace is someone I’ve just recently watched post-combine — I think he presents a chance to get a very solid starter in round three and warrants more attention. He’s extremely solid and fundamentally sound — and that’s kind of what you want up front.
At guard, I think there are a lot of attractive mid-round options. I was really impressed with Trente Jones and Trevor Keegan at the combine. Christian Haynes, Jarrett Kingston and Dominick Puni all have starter potential and I really enjoyed watching Mason McCormick’s tape this week — he’s highly athletic, loves to hammer opponents and he’s a very explosive lineman.
I think the round 3-4 range is a good area to look at the center position. Tanor Bortolini, Dylan McMahon, Beaux Limmer and Charles Turner all have very appealing traits. If you want to go earlier, Zach Frazier is the best ‘no-nonsense’ hit you in the face type with supreme grip strength and tone-setting ability. Sedrick Van Pran had a good on-field display to remind everyone of his talent. I thought he looked great at his 298lbs weight. I like Jackson Powers-Johnson I’m just not sure about a 330lbs center.
There’s a strong possibility the best player available at #16 will be an offensive lineman — and that could be the direction the Seahawks take. However, I would also stress that, as the board shows, there are attractive ways to add talent, depth and competition to the offensive line without necessarily having to use a first round pick.
It’s also worth noting that the top O-line prospects are tackles. Some of them are being projected to move inside — but they excelled at tackle. It’s hard to know how the Seahawks will approach this without knowing how they feel about Abe Lucas’ health, or his ability to move inside. That’s a nugget of info that will dictate a lot of the decision making with the top pick, should they not be planning to focus on the future at quarterback.
Defensive linemen
Braden Fiske had one of the best combine performances I’ve ever seen. He was absolutely electric in drills, showed twitch and explosiveness with his testing numbers and he’s just ticking off boxes. He’s high character, his tape is good and he was very disruptive, he’s an elite athlete, he performed well at the Senior Bowl. Yes, the 31 inch arms are a concern and length matters. However, everything else makes up for the lack of length. The only concern is the report from Tony Pauline suggesting he had poor medical results. That’ll need to be monitored. Otherwise, he’s a unicorn as a physical specimen and deserves to be graded as such.
I think Byron Murphy also deserves his first round placing for a strong combine showing. His thick lower body is very appealing for the position — but upon tape review this week, I just wish he was a bit more consistent and could learn how to finish. He also has shorter arms. Ruke Orhorhoro, for me at least, isn’t that far behind the top-two and has Justin Madubuike level potential.
There are high upside defensive tackles on the board in rounds 3-4. These are players with physical tools who didn’t quite excel as much on tape. I think the Seahawks, if they don’t re-sign Leonard Williams, should be able to find a defensive tackle they like in this draft.
I dropped Bralen Trice a round as I didn’t expect him to weigh 245lbs and his 40 and 10 times were disappointing having dropped weight. He didn’t do any agility testing or jumps either.
In terms of edge rushers — there’s a clear top-four who will all likely go off the board before the end of the teens. Personally I didn’t think Dallas Turner’s tape was that impressive, which is why I have him as my third edge. There are obviously injury history concerns with Laiatu Latu too. However, it’s clear all four players have plenty of upside and potential and given the premium nature of their positions, they won’t last very long.
Another thing that’ll play into possibly all four being gone potentially before the Seahawks are on the clock is the lack of alternatives in a second tier. There’s a decent gap between the top four and the rest.
Linebackers
Good luck. This isn’t a draft class to imagine you’re going to solve problems here. The Seahawks, with no starting options currently on the roster, have to look at the veteran market. There are players who could appeal but are you going to be able to target players with starting potential? I would imagine that alongside re-signing Leonard Williams, this will be a priority position next week — unless they’ve decided to place minimal importance on it. That seems unlikely given how critical Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen were in Baltimore for Mike Macdonald — but some teams have gone cheap and cheerful here.
I’ve moved Jeremiah Trotter into round four after a disappointing combine where he looked middling and small. Payton Wilson had an exceptional combine but the injury concerns linger. Junior Colson not doing any workouts was disappointing. I won’t be surprised if a linebacker-needy team without a lot of holes over-drafts Edgerrin Cooper given how well he tested.
Cornerbacks
This is a consistent class with pockets of talent for each round. The thing that excites me, though, are the options later on. I think Ryan Watts has a physical profile, including 34.5 inch arms. Kalen King had a shocking Senior Bowl and didn’t run fast — but he showed in drills he can’t be totally written off.
Quinyon Mitchell is the clear CB1 for me but I thought Kamari Lassiter was the big combine winner thanks to excellent drills and blazing agility testing.
Safeties
Perhaps lost amid all the ‘end of days’ veteran cuts recently is that teams probably see this as a sneaky good safety class. I now have eight graded for day two. With the league moving towards a lot of two-high and three-safety looks, versatility is king. This is a class full of versatile, intelligent, scheme-diverse players.
Javon Bullard running a 4.47 nudged me to go and re-watch his tape and I moved him up a round. He can cover, he can hit, he can play deep or move up and make a tackle. He’s likely a second rounder. Dadrion Taylor-Demerson has been a favourite of mine since the start of the 2023 season — I just had no idea how well he’d test. When I saw those results, combined with the prior tape review, I think he’s a second round talent who might be available a bit later than that. I also thought Dominique Hampton had a superb combine and is capable of doing a job at the next level. He might not go as high as I have graded — but I personally think this range is fair.
Overall thoughts
The depth of talent at offensive tackle and receiver is well advertised. I think there are also good options at safety and the quarterback class will have mixed opinions — but we could see teams prepared to take chances on upside/potential knowing the numbers are thinner at the position for the early rounds next year.
It’s not a deep class at tight end or linebacker and that could shape some of Seattle’s free agent decision making next week.
At the top of the page (desktop version) you’ll find a ‘horizontal board’ tab so you can get easy access to the board. On a mobile device, you need to select the three bars to produce a menu, where you’ll find the same option.
Rob, has there been anything more specific about the Fiske medical?
Thanks for all your hard work!
I saw somewhere that Fiske only missed one collegiate game in 6 years and that was for Covid. He looked pretty healthy to me.
‘Looking healthy’ isn’t comparable to detailed, lengthy medical examinations though
Fantastic work Rob!
It’s so cool to watch the board evolve over the season. I really appreciate the format more than the typical Top 100 or whatever lists. Being able to see where tiers are at positions adds much needed context to how a team would approach things. Also seeing the WR depth vs DE for example is stunning.
Thank you for continuing to set the bar! Great stuff as always.
Super helpful, thanks.
One question: didn’t you at one time also italicize or otherwise distinguish players that were potential scheme fits and/or targets, or am I daydreaming about that? Let me be clear that I my intention is not complaining or asking you to do even more work, just checking my sanity. I know you already do comprehensive prospect summaries like the one you just recently published.
Amazing quality as always Rob, I’ll 100% be referring to this board during the draft. Also appreciate your thoughts.
At least if we resign Williams it won’t hurt quite so much that we don’t have a 2nd as we can imagine that 2nd as an instant impact dlineman but man what a stacked second round for receivers incredible.
This is great Rob. Well done.
And thanks for putting an explanation at the top of how a horizontal board works. I think there are several people out there who style themselves as draft-savvy who honestly do not grasp it.
If I can suggest it – cut+paste that explanation on every updated board post up until draft day.
Also, that picture header is great, but I really think you should photoshop Superior Linen’s corporate logo over the Bud Light logo. 🙂
That’s great about the superior linen logo!
Rob should also make an FAQ about all his drafts which are either 1. Thought experiments or 2. As he gets closer to the draft and he drafts for all 32 teams not a personal reflection of his hopes and dreams for the team but a testament to where he thinks a player is going and why.
Just look at the post combine (over)reaction to mccarthy. Rob never said a word about him magically being better than anyone but rather he got a sense….flash forward about 2-7 days and a ton of national mocks had him top five and now Brock thinks JJ is the bestest boy.
Done! Just tell me where to send it! Seriously. If Rob wants it, took me about 30 seconds to do.
Looks like we picked the wrong year to quit using 2nd round picks
If at first you don’t succeed try (harvin,) try (graham,) try ( richardson), try ( clowney) try (adams) try ( williams) again….blind squirrel using a broken clock and all that.
😫😖😣😤😡🤬🤯
Ah, but see, odds are the more times you fail your next chance of success goes up. That or this is the definition of insanity.
Duane Brown was when that broken clock found a nut.
But remember? They got bamboozled on that one too.
They dumped Jeremy Lane’s salary in the trade but the Texans nixed the deal because he couldn’t pass their physical. So they ended up having to give more picks to get him.
I don’t know. We may have been a bit culpable in that aspect too. Lane was out of the league after that year. Might have been peddling damaged goods.
Looking it up, it was originally: 2 + 5 = Brown
Lane removed changed it to a: 2 + 3 = Brown + 5
And Brown quite possibly added more to our team than all of those guys combined, regardless of spend.
May the odds be in John’s favor at some point.
Rob, great work. The noise of Maye falling is getting louder. Brock Huard mentioned not being super high on him on 710, and also said that he had a longtime QB coach tell him some not so positive things in regards to Maye. Not sure if that was on Tuesday or Wednesday, can’t find the link.
Now Mel Kiper Jr is saying McCarthy could be QB3. The noise is definitely getting louder.
https://twitter.com/obvlon/status/1766126305647460785?s=19
The amount of time/effort you’ve put in to this shows. Thanks for all the great content.
Step 1: Trade back into the end of R1 and pick up an R2 and maybe a bit more
Step 2: Draft a QB with late R1 (Rattler, Penix, JJ, Nix, Maye)
Step 3: draft Ruke (even if you have Williams) in mid-late R2 or early R3
Step 4: draft Wilson and hope his medicals work out for the future (sign a couple FA LB too)
Step 5: draft an iOL in R3
Step 6: draft an S in R3
This way you get 2 high upside players (Ruke, Wilson), you roll the dice on QBOTF, get OL help when the draft is still good for the position and get a not too high investment but potentially good S for a need.
They have money to sign LBs and S for OK money so would have vet backup plan if the rookie can’t start.
If Ruke goes earlier I’d be willing to roll the dice with Sweat. If he can control his weight he could be a great middle anchor for us
I’m at the point that I think Payton Wilson won’t even be on their draft board. I was scared of his injuries before the combine and to hear that his medicals were ‘ugly’ and the worst of the combine… I don’t think John takes the chance at a position where we’re already thin, unless he does a Maurice Hurst-like fall to day 3.
Shoulder and knee injuries aren’t the same as broken bones (Zak Zinter).
Great work, Rob! As always, I like the logic and depth behind your answers. Wow probably not the biggest concern for our team, I really wonder what tight end is gonna look like for us. After seeing Dalton Schultz (3/$36M), Jonnu Smith (2/$10M) and Hunter Henry (3/$27M), I wonder if Fant is somewhere between Smith/Henry. At that rate, I would assume he’s gone.
The free agency TE class is kind of meh to me, but I also don’t know what MM and Grubb would be looking for. I’m guessing we will get someone in the fourth round or later?
Makes you wonder if they are trying to re-sign one of Parkinson/Fant so they don’t get caught out. A bit similar to LB last year when it felt like you could slow play the position and they all signed in the first couple of days of FA.
Thank you for sharing Curtis. It appears that tight end this year could be the Safety market from a few years ago. These guys sticking two and three year deals for guaranteed money now does make sense. I think Fant is gone because he will get a good deal and I even wonder if Parkinson will make some decent money as well.
Not TE-related, but similar thinking, seeing Dotson gets his extension from the Rams yesterday, it looks like Damien Lewis could be in line for a big contract.
I think both Fant and Parkinson are gone. Both will be much too expensive for the return they provide. And this will be the smart move by Seattle and Big Mac Mike. They need as much new blood as possible! Especially when the old blood is overly expensive. No more overpaid players!
Eventually landing spots run out though, and there’ll be deals to be had
That is what we thought would happen at linebacker last year, and we ended up with all the FAs signed elsewhere and an overpriced Bobby + Devin Bush. I hope they start at least a borderline starting TE in free agency.
Yeah, unless Fant’s agent is a complete idiot, he reaches FA and gets paid.
I don’t see Schneider spending on TE before he gets Williams and Brooks cleared up, unless it’s a backup for cheap. Not a huge priority, even though the room is empty.
I completely agree with what you’re saying. If we’re not showcasing it tight end like the Travis Kelce in our office, overpaying Noah Fant is a horrible idea in my opinion.
There is an outside chance that all 32 teams’ “tight end budgeted dollars” are spent now with this flurry of deals and Fant cannot find value.
He’s 26. A one-year deal and a good bet on himself could reap him a nice payday in 2025.
The FA TE class in 2025 is very poor (I’m assuming Atlanta 5th year tenders Kyle Pitts this summer). Noah could be the belle of the ball next year with a 60-70catch, 5-8TD season.
Maybe a 1-yr/$6-8M with incentives? Would that still be too rich for us? In our current roster state, I would say probably.
They could give him say a $2m bonus, $2m salary and $3-5m of incentives. They’d be classed as NLTBE and if he got them they’d hit the cap in 2025 if they wanted to go in that direction.
Especially if his agent lands him a spot on a team that targets the TE a lot more than Grubb has. Currently Seattle is an unknown for Fant and he could languish, again, and not have the showcase opportunity to up his stats.
I can see Fant signing a contract with the Bengals to for the chance to play with a great QB to maximize his value, vs. coming back to Seattle and the unknown. Parkinson is the one that I think Seattle will ending up retaining.
I think Parkinson is ready for a fresh start
A hunch
Time will tell. It will be one or the other (or both?). Fant went to college in the Midwest. Parkinson has been a West Coast guy. Both are young and will be commanding more $$ than I think we all want to admit.
I would say there’s a very good chance Parkinson moves on. Just saying…
So what you are saying without saying it Rob, is that you may or may not have heard something that is leading you to have the opinion that Parkinson will be taking his talents to another team next season.
He is a David Shaw TE, which makes me think the Chargers might place a very high value on him. Shaw did run Stanford’s offense when Harbaugh was the HC there.
But that is just me purely speculating and not trying to read between the lines of what Rob was saying at all.
Remember when they had Parkinson on the roster for 2/3 of the year and he couldn’t be a gameday active because they had Luke “vibes” Willson on the roster for his 6 special teams snaps?
Curtis remembers.
So does Mike, sadly.
To quote Smiling Jack Ross in A Few Good Men — “Parkinson’s gone. There is no Parkinson.”
I believe that was Markinson.
However to quote the lady at my deli “Had some just last week, but sorry. No Colby.”
Please don’t remind me of the few bits of roster malpractice I’ve somehow managed to forget…
I know one team who should still have money left for TE, unless Tyler Mabry & Dissly’s dead cap was our total budget.
I don’t really even want Brooks back. He can’t cover in the passing game, is a poor pash rusher, makes very few wow/big plays overall and definitely can’t be counted on to play middle linebacker. All of his flaws are especially bothersome playing the 9’ers and the Rams.
I am hopeful the new coaches see that he is’nt a player they should bring back unless it were a pretty cheap 1 year type deal. Let him see if he has a market while letting him know you’ll have him back for the right deal.
This is fantastic. Thanks, Rob!!!
I think you deserve all the credit in the land for being ahead of the curve in recognizing Maye’s limited talents. Now everyone else is catching up.
Someone please explain to myself why he was ever hyped as some super stud maybe better than Caleb Williams? Does he just have the best agent and PR team? Because he was very meh and mid his entire career at UNC. Nor were his teams any good! Such a dubious blunder by the mock draft industrial complex.
This is why SDB is the superior site for draft news and insights! Way to go, Rob!
It’s not limited talents. He is more raw and inconsistent. The talent and high ceiling is there. There is no PR campaign.
It’s not a blunder, it happens every year with prospects, especially qb’s. No one but Rob is watching the tape all year so he’s on it sooner than anyone else.
FWIW, Florio just posted the betting community still has Maye at #2 QB ahead of Jayden Daniels.
Thanks so much for this Rob. Can I assume your final horizontal will be published just before the draft as usual? I refer to it a lot it while watching.
How about drafting both ex Husky TEs? 4th/5th/6th round?
Don’t have a draftable grade for Michael Barrett?
I can understand the reasoning why, but I think he could very well end up being a solid pro. Perhaps as a late round or UDFA for the Hawks.
A scenario I would propose considering Seattle has two 3rd round picks this year:
If Seattle doesn’t trade up, and if a player drops to #16 that Seattle really likes, they should stick and pick. If not, then I would like to see Seattle trade back twice…ending up with a pick around #28-32. They should be able to pick up at least a couple of 3rd rounders (if not a 2nd rounder and some other picks). With their late 1st round pick, I’d like to see them take Zak Zinter. Then with the two 3rd round picks + whatever draft capital they pick up with the trade backs, maybe Seattle can get back into round 2 to get a QB like Rattler, Penix, Nix, Maye, etc.
Penix is going to be long gone before round 2. My gut feeling is 5 QBs go in the top 15. Nix might be a late 1 or early 2, Rattler, 2-3. After those 1st 7 I think you are gambling big on hoping you hit on one of these guys. Jordan Travis is a bit of a wild card, due to his injury and not being able to see him work out.
I bet Picks 1-3 are QBs, Cards could trade out of 4 to and some one moves up to grab a QB. If Maye is slipping he could last until 16, but some other team is going to see the positional value and raw skills to take a chance.
With such a lack of top end defensive talent in this draft, I think the first 15 pick will be very offensive heavy. Up to 5 QBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, no less than 2 OLs. With Chop Robinson and Jared Verse being the only two defensive players. Throw in 1 more OL and you are looking at 13 of the 1st 15 picks being on the offensive side of the ball.
Denver and Vegas may be looking for quarterbacks too.
I like your thoughts about trading back. I’m not really worried about the QB position. If one falls to them fine. But I’m also content just to work on the rest of the team while letting the cap reset more in the Seahawks favor.
After all, they do have Geno Smith for two more years. LOL
Per John (this is all snark): he IS a quarterback that is on the team as of 3/8/24.
I can’t believe the Geno stan-types were shouting the MM interview from the rooftops about Geno yesterday, ‘confirmed is the starter.’
If you read the text of what he said, he was specifically asked if he was the starter and wouldn’t answer that. He also said ‘we’re trying to make our team better’
He just didn’t pivot to Drew Lock this time.
That’s it.
Arizona just signed LJ Collier. This is the first time I’ve ever wanted to see him on the field.
You really have to be kind of impressed. His biggest skill seems to get people to sign him (or draft him) while never actually being on the field for one reason or another.
Rob nice job on the updated horizontal board. Hey guys here is something interesting. The Seahawks have four coaches that have come directly from the college ranks. Two of those coaches have come from Michigan. Jay Harbaugh and Chris Partridge. The other two are Ryan Grubbs and Scott Huff. I think Jay Harbaugh and Chris Partridge pretty much have an inside scouting report on Michigan players(especially J.J. McCarthy). Jay Harbaugh saw McCarthy everyday at practice. Harbaugh knows more about McCarthy then any scout in the NFL. Plus he knows the Michigan offensive players. And Chris Partridge having coached the Wolverine linebackers pretty knows the Michigan defense. Then you throw in Grubb and Huff from Washington and you have a fantastic head start on NFL prospects. Not only does these coaches know their own prospects they have a good idea of the talent throughout the Big Ten and Pac-10 conferences.
Definitely. They should also have the inside info on Penix and Zinter’s injuries. Grubb may have some info that never left the building regarding Penix and his stretch of bad play. There was talk of an undisclosed injury, and Grubb is one person who would know for sure either way.
As you say, a different level of game film watching and prep for the teams in the BIG and PAC as well.
With the high number of quality WR’s available especially in the 2nd round, is there a chance that a few of them could fall into the 3rd or even the 4th rd? It would be great if Seattle could pick one up in those later rds., especially if Lockett decides to retire.
Unlike some years there are going to be some incredible options at 16-25 unlike some other years.
I hope the Hawks either trade up to get the QB they really want or trade back to the 20s and try to pick up a 2nd or another 3rd.
If they came out of RD1 with any of the following guys I would be excited.
QBs – Mcarthy, Penix or Maye in JS we trust when it comes to QBs
#1 Troy Fautanu- my favorite non QB player for the Hawks. True Tone setter who can play anywhere on the OL and will be a pro bowler early and often IMO.
#2 Quinyon Mitchell- Hawks don’t really need a CB and focus should be trenches but love this guy. He won’t be there at 16 anyways.
#3 Jared Verse- Legit top end pass rusher who can also play the run. He is a stud.
#4 Talise Fuaga – monster who is athletic as well.
#5 Chop Robbinson – They simply don’t make many athletes like this who can rush the passer. Off the charts upside.
#6 JC Latham- Beast that can play RT or G a lot like Fuaga
#7 Brock Bowers – Could he really fall to 16 and how do you pass on him if he does .
I agree with everyone on that list. When I do mock drafts, it gets harder to trade down past early 20’s. Feels like the real tier drop off is around 20. While I like Quinyon Mitchell, I hope 3-4 CB’s go in the top 20 pushing down OL, QB and DE.
The names on your list seem like a lock for the top 20. I prefer a trade down to add picks in the meat of the draft but am afraid of passing on a name from above and instead taking an interior OL type + a pick in the 90’s.
If the team manage to keep Leo Williams, I’m not really for trading down at all, however, if Williams moves on, there might be an argument for trying to get the 2nd round pick back.
What would the risk be to move down into the mid twenties with Green Bay or Dallas for a 2nd round pick and then try and trade back up again with Miami with a 3rd or 4th round pick. With the cap situation the Dolphins find themselves in, with having to cut players and not having a 3rd round pick, it might be a trade the Dolphins are interested in?
My mock drafts are all quite different, with who falls to the end of 1st. This last one was odd because no one seemed to pick DTs…
Just as a note, I enter every draft with the goal of getting a 2025 1st. I think they should focus on beef in 2024 and look at QBoTF in 2025, once he had a line to protect him. To that end, having two #1s provides firepower.
Trade with TB:
SEA sends 16, 81 to TB
TB sends 26, 57, 2025 1st to SEA.
26.
Byron Murphy II
DT Texas
57.
T’Vondre Sweat
DT Texas
78.
Sataoa Laumea
OT Utah
117.
Tyler Nubin
S Minnesota
151.
Tanor Bortolini
OC Wisconsin
191.
Luke McCaffrey
WR Rice
235.
Sione Vaki
RB/S/ATH Utah
Pending:
2025 TB 1st
My predictions for the QB carousel.
Bears – Caleb Williams
Commanders- Jayden Daniels
Patriots – Justin Feilds
Seahawks – JJ Mcarthy (Trade up to 3 or 5 )
Giants – Drake Maye
Falcons – Kirk Cousins
Vikings – Micheal Pennix
Broncos – Bo Nix
Raiders – Geno Smith
Steelers – Russ
Bucs – Baker Mayfeild
A lot of that makes sense.
What would be the comp for Raiders to Seahawks for Geno you think? Maye in a Giants jersey is easy to envision with a year behind DJ. Can’t wait for the Free agency portion of the QB carousel to shake out so we can better speculate on the draft!
I don’t see the Raiders trading for an aging average (and possibly below average) QB. They’d just have to revisit the QB position within a year or so.
If everything goes the way you listed, then I think the Raiders give Aidan O’Connell a chance to start the season and take a shot on Spencer Rattler and hope one of the two cheap options pan out.
I’ve never posted one of these but I thought it would be fun. Went through a mock draft on Sportskeeda and came out with this after a couple trades back in the 1st round.
(31) Michael Penix, QB
(59) Ruke Orhorhoro, DT
(63) Benn Sinnott, TE
(76) Roman Wilson, WR
(78) Malik Mustapha, S
(119) Jordan Jefferson, DT
(151) Trevor Keegan, OG
(176) Jordan Travis, QB
(194) Xavier Thomas, EDGE
(233) Emani Bailey, RB
Using Sportskeeda for a mock draft, not sure how realistic this is, but I wouldn’t be mad if this was the Hawks draft. I made multiple trades suggested by the program so i will just list the picks I ended up with.
36. Cooper DeJean – Just screams being the kind of all over DB that fits in Macdonald’s system. He and Spoon together could move all over the place.
40. Troy Fautanu – doubt he will still be on the board at this point in the real draft, but getting him at 40 is a steal.
49. Graham Barton – anchors the middle of the interior OL for the next 10-12 years. Tough going with him with Sweat and Colson still on the board, but Fautanu and Barton become the young anchors of the O-Line to go with Cross and Lucas.
81. McKinnley Jackson, stout anchor to put in the middle of the defense with Cameron Young.
98. Tyler Nubin – adds young safety depth.
119. Cade Stover – with no TEs currenty on the roster, Stover comes in as a move TE to help the passing attack. Many say Grubb’s offense didn’t target the TEs much, but with the top 3 receivers they had Westover and Culp still got a fair amount of targets.
122. Jaylen Harrell – late round pass rusher, can never have too many of those.
233. Dominique Hampton – Special Teamer who could covert to LB in Macdonald’s scheme, able to cover and play well in space.
Like I said not sure how realistic that most of these guys fall to where I got them, but it would be a pretty good influx of talent.
Dejean will instantly be one of the top returners in the NFL the moment he steps on the field.
He won games for Iowa himself, just with punt returns (says a lot about Iowa, but also that he was a big part of the offense without actually being on the offense). W E A P O N.
3 Beavers in the first 4 rounds on the Horizontal Board. 🥲
I really don’t know what I want. I want to trade back for more picks but if Fuaga, Fautanu, Chop or Maye are there I’d be hard pressed to pass. As of now I think I’d be ok with a lighter haul with bigger talent, trades be damned
No one is talking about this and I have thought about it for awhile so I’ll just say it here. I have long liked Mo Kamara and want the Hawks to take him somewhere in the middle rounds to play a specific role.
I want a certified edge rusher like anyone else but it’s not always a reality. You have Nwosu coming back, you have Mafe, and have invested in Hall. However, Darrell Taylor was depended on to be a pass rush specialist. He didn’t deliver.
Mo Kamara is one of the most natural pass-rushers in this draft. Dude is a real technician with the bend and speed to boot. He has short arms though. I want him to be the pass rush specialist because I think he’ll actually be a monster doing that specific role. Get him in on 3rd downs against tired linemen and I think he’ll provide you at least a handful of sacks with a bunch of pressure.
Dreams:
– Hawks commit to getting comp picks every year
– Hawks resign Leonard Williams
– Hawks trade Geno & Lockett
– Hawks take advantage of cratered FA market, a la RB, LB, S
If you want comp picks, you should root against keeping Williams.
I’d rather have Williams than a comp pick.
I’m still thinking the best scenario is trading back in R1 for an additional top 45 pick. R1: OL/DL . R2: Rattler.
I use these lists more to make sure I didn’t forget certain guys who will be available than I care about who is ranked where.
https://www.nfl.com/news/top-101-nfl-free-agents-of-2024-who-are-the-best-players-available
But it’s still interesting to see where an outsider ranks players.
Seahawk notables:
#10 DL Leonard Williams
#17 LB Frankie Luvu
#18 G Robert Hunt
#19 LB Patrick Queen
#20 C Lloyd Cushenberry
#28 LB Jordyn Brooks (the comments are hilarious)
#30 LB Lavonte David
#32 DE Jadeveon Clowney
#55 G Kevin Zeitler
#59 LB Devin White
#63 LB Bobby Wagner
#65 S Jeremy Chinn
#69 S Geno Stone
#71 TE Noah Fant
#73 LB Willie Gay Jr
#75 LB Josey Jewell
#77 QB RW
#89 S Micah Hyde
#92 LB Blake Cashman
#94 G Andrus Peat
#100 DT Sheldon Rankins
Not ranked: Quandre, Jamal, Dissly, Lock
Or Damien Lewis, Mario Edwards, Evan Brown, Phil Haynes for that matter
I find it hard to believe Russell Wilson is all the way down at #77. I would think that at least one team out of Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Minnesota or the Raiders would be be excited to get Russ.
And this list has Jacoby Brissett at #21??!! Really? And Tyrod Taylor at #88.
I think RW might have the same problems Cam Newton had getting a job.
If he’s not the outright starter, you’ve got a huge distraction. If doesn’t win the starting job, the first time the starter doesn’t have a good game, the fans will lose their minds, and the coach will get Q’s about whether he’s thinking of a change.
And if he is the starter, if you want him to be successful you have to change your offense to fit his skillset. And that isn’t as easy as snapping your fingers.
Yeah, I’m sure that’s right. But how could Russ not win the job in Atlanta and Minnesota? Those teams have nothing. I guess Aidan O’Connell is a bit more than nothing, but seems like he’d only have a 20% chance or less of beating out Russ.
Pittsburgh is the only team where they really want to give Pickett every chance to succeed before they give up on him.
It is too easy to rip any of these kind of top 100 lists apart. Jacoby Brissett ( 18 Wins 30 Losses!) who is in his 30s, and has been mostly mediocre, ahead of Mayfield, Tannehill, RW, Minshew and even Tyrod seems bizarre. I would even like Lock’s upside over Brissett.
That Brooks write-up is damn funny. A true backhanded compliment.
He earned his money… I hope LW isn’t thinking about anything near that.
Not putting Leonard Williams in his class, but damn… LW ain’t sniffing that!
https://bleacherreport.com/post/nfl-rumors/0e8b3155-a53a-4f0a-91e7-63aee0dfb5ef
Diggs really complaining about the “exodus of safeties.”
The fact that 4 of the highest paid safeties were all cut and you can’t figure out why (or don’t want to acknowledge it)….
It’s the same as Bobby Wagner feeling disrespected for being cut.
Gee, you’re 31, your cap number is huge for the upcoming year, and PC steps to the podium at the combine and won’t commit to saying you’re back with the team the next year.
Who’da thought it would ever happen?
safeties will be the RBs on defenses easily replaced for cheaper players
Whatever you do, do not look at next year’s awarded comp picks. Not unless you want your day ruined entirely.
Seattle continually outclassed in this regard absolutely every season.
Because they have to fill out the roster. It’s not something to be banking on.
The Rams have had (back to back) a 12-5 Super Bowl winning team and a 5-12 bottom of the barrel team and been awarded 4 picks for players lost in each case.
Running out to ‘fill out the roster’ with Austin Blythe, Artie Burns, Akhello Witherspoon, Gerald Everett and Kerry Hyder is the reason we didn’t get any picks in the same time frame. (Bruce Irvin, Benson Mayowa, Brandon Shell, BJ Finney before that).
These guys don’t move the needle and don’t need to be signed in March. All they did was cost too much, cancel comp picks and keep young guys on the bench. It is something that can be banked on, you just need to fill out your roster with:
A. Players who were cut (overpay if you want)
B. Draft Picks
C. Trades or
D. FA signed in May or your own FA
^^^^^^^^ THIS
(also, sometimes, for half-decent contracts that resulted in dead money)
On 710 today, Wyman described both Leonard Williams and Dre’mont Jones as D-linemen that you have to gameplan around and that teams would have to eliminate a large % of running plays because they are “immovable”.
What was our run defense ranked last year, again?
I think with the right guidance, both could be incredibly disruptive and dynamic. I believe Mike Macdonald can be the man to unlock them. But immovable in the run game isn’t how I’d put it
I think you’re being kind Rob though Mike Mac might be able to unlock more than I am guessing is there. I’d be happy with a league average run D tho.
Yeah, I’d agree.
They are both potential disruptors/penetrators.
I’m hopeful that the new defense can utilize Jones better than last year.
But neither are particularly stout in the run game.
We still need a big body on the DL.
Would be fun to get Sweat to fill that role, but that doesn’t seem to be a position that they will prioritize.
It’s a tough position these days
They tend to play a low % of snaps and even the really talented, freakishly athletic nose tackles are coming into the league and not really doing much. Vita Vea’s are so rare. It really is a position where I think you’ve just got to find the toughest, biggest BAMF at the right cost and let them play
I like Sweat, a lot, but I would take a high upside guard or center around the same pick he’s projected to go at. A player who may only be a 2 down contributor isn’t what they should use that high a pick on. Hell, I’d take a really good WR at that spot, should a gem be sitting there, instead. It would make a Lockett separation much easier after the draft as a post 6/1 release.
Dave Wyman won’t be going the John Lynch and Ozzie Newsome path into a GM role.
I like some of his commentary about being an NFL player, but he played in a completely different era and his takes on today’s NFL can be downright bad, at times.
Apologies if this has already been discussed, but is there a clear case reason to sign LW over Wilkins at this point? I’d be happy to have either, but so long as we’re talking free agency and we have cap room now, is LW that much cheaper cause of age or better scheme fit?
I think Wilkins will be a lot more expensive
How does McCarthy compare to Mac Jones as a player? They both seemed bland as players coming out. What was Mac Jones college 3rd down rate?
In terms of stand out skills — I can see why some might compare the two players. However, McCarthy is much more dangerous with his legs running and throwing. So from that aspect — they aren’t comparable.
Mac Jones was the better passer coming out of Alabama and it’s not even close. McCarthy averaged about 150 yards less game than Jones, because Alabama trusted Jones to perform at that level of QB play while Michigan trusted McCarthy to perform at his level of play. They were both trusted to do what they were good at, it’s just one was trusted to throw more and the other was trusted to hand the ball off more.
Jones could’ve been scary in the Shanahan system
Agreed. The Trey Lance mess may well have cost them a Lombardi
But was capped because he couldn’t do much on the run or playing off-script.
Playing off-script? Alabama won the 2021 NCAA Football championship! I guess Jones could have played better though…
I don’t know if you understood what I said.
I see some similarities between Jones and McCarthy but I also see some major differences. One being McCarthy being able to utilize his legs to run and throw. That was something that has capped Jones’ potential so far in the NFL.
Jones would have done well in a more controlled offensive system that allowed him to work with tempo and timing. McCarthy might be able to run more offenses because he adds an extra element with high legs.
But at the end of the day, they are both 2nd or 3rd round talents with a lot of warts.
The playing off-script comment is confusing to me as Alabama dominated all of their opponents that year, which demonstrates, at least to me, that Jones operated right on script with Alabama’s offensive game plan.
The idea that McCarthy is a scrambling QB is a bit of a reach as he never took over a game with his legs, or his arm for that matter, he managed the games as was asked of him.
I remember thinking that the Patriots may right the ship when they drafted Jones but you’re right about that not working out so far.
I’m not sure what you don’t understand. How about outside of the play structure? That was and continues to be something Jones can’t do very well but McCarty can. The term off-script is pretty commonly used in the football world.
Ah there it is. You’re comparing Jones the player he is now to McCarthy, not the prospect Jones was from college.
Do you think he’ll match Madubuike’s deal?
Meant as a reply to Rob re: Wilkins
I do
I think the coaching staff’s college connections on here are being a bit overstated by commenters on here. John is in charge of the draft room now and he will trust his scouting team with their job. Incoming coaches are going to be focused on implementing their new system, not on giving draft recommendations. It can never hurt having more knowledge on particular guys but I don’t see John going to his coach and asking him who the good Big 10 players are. The coaches weren’t even in Indianapolis when they have been in the past.
You might be correct….however, if it’s true that Pete being fresh from college was a major advantage to those early drafts as has long been speculated, John will know from experience such an advantage is worth giving much consideration to.
To be fair, they are the two teams from the national championship game, so even if they didn’t have coaches from those teams now on the staff, they’d still have plenty of those prospects on their big board.
I think if he was seriously considering making a move for either Mccarthy or Penix he would consult his coaches, sure. But he would already have to be in the position of liking them first.
So if I read the board correctly. There are only 7 or 8 true blue-chip prospects in the 2024 draft. I had thought there were closer to 10-15 the way “people” have talked about the draft. TE Bowers is going to be a game changer on the team he lands on…..
I’m actually pretty excited there are some 2nd-4th round rated Safety prospects to get fired up about, if Seattle were to pick them. Mustapha, Oladapo and Bishop are incredibly intriguing and bring something to the table.
Good stuff.
I don’t care the grade or testing.
Give me some Jack Westover pls.
I’m curious how you would rank this year’s QBs compared to what we had last year, ignoring whatever they have shown (or not shown) since being drafted? E.g. how does Michael Penix compare to Anthony Richardson or others? Is the overall level of QB talent better or worse than last year?
Me personally:
1. Williams.
2. Stroud.
3. Richardson.
4a. Daniels.
4b. Rattler.
Pretty big gap.
5. Maye
6. Levis (I think his floor pans out fairly easily compared to Penix’s ceiling).
7. Penix.
8. Young.
9. Nix.
Then it doesn’t really matter.
Last year’s big 3 (and the short 1) put that year pretty far ahead of this class. Much higher floor with pretty high ceilings. This year has a lot of boom-or-bust players, a lot of players that don’t have the base ability of the position (weird circumstances: juggernaut offenses, systems, bad tape with what matters). I don’t think there will be a lot of good qb’s with this crop when we look back 5 years later.
I don’t want to throw next year’s crop in. I think they will be ahead of this year as well; more or less the same reasons: better general qb play, safer, higher floors. More alpha’s.
Kind of fun to look at them together now that I’m doing it.
That’s a good horizontal board of sorts haha. I think Stroud has the highest ceiling followed by Daniels, but with Daniels the bust potential is higher than Williams. I think Williams will be a good to great QB, but Daniels could be middling to great due to his body-type; Daniels should bulk up in legs, but I feel that way about Rattler too
Daniels needs to get on Mccarthy’s dirty bulk and make leg day everyday.
If I didn’t have doubts about his frame he’d be my favorite qb in this class. And yet he nearly still is.
For me coming out:
—R1
1. Stroud
2. Williams
3. Daniels
4. Levis
5. ARich
—R2
6. Penix
7. Hooker
—R3
8. Rattler
—R4
9. AOC
10. Tanner McKee
11. Maye
12. Nix
13. McCarthy
Note: I don’t consider Young to be a NFL player, his size made him not even a UDFA in my book.
Hindsight being 20/20, I’d bump AOC up a round.
I’ve become cool on Williams personality and rumors of an entourage that would be better suited for a reality show. Stroud had none of that and was a clear (to most) top tier prospect.
Daniels is to me, a potential evolution of the position, he could blow up. He is much more polished than ARich. Daniels’ running style is unlike Jackson or Allen or Vick…but has elements of each. His arm is strong and polished.
I was tempted to drop McCarthy to R5, but that is probably an overreaction to the obsession some have with him.
I like both of your lists quite a bit.
I would rate Nix higher than both of you. Like Rattler I like that he played a ton of games in two different systems and had to reinvent himself. I get that scouts and GM’s with their “pick me” energy would like Mccarthy as they project themselves hanging around the coolest guy on campus.
In contrast I think a lot of coaches will like Nix and his ( not a pejorative) Alex Smith like attitude of taking what’s on offer and just going to work with it.
Do I think he’s some slept on gem? No. 60 games and you’re not hidden. I just don’t see him being the problem on a team. Probably not the answer either. See: purdy, brock
Maye? I really don’t know. In a draft randomizer where we knew who really was the best QB I think he’d be a later first round pick. Size and age but a squint and see it level of play.
If jj mccarthy was mm jcarthy and played for any other team in the Big 10 and threw 8 ( 17+ attempts/game average) passes in a game we’d be talking about how he’s a select and sit third rounder.
The meditation would be as cool as mayo in coffee. Now apparently he’s a dangerous runner? ( palms up, shrug shoulders, question mark face)
Yeah, I knew that you were higher on Nix than me and LouCity wasn’t as high on Rattler as I am.
Looking at this, I don’t feel good that this is the year that we have to take a qb, especially with as close as we were last year (FTColts), and how I think of next year’s class.
At least we all agree on McCarthy haha!
Rattler is like 75% of what I want. His arm isn’t a cannon, his throws are just almost there, he moves good in the pocket.
If you combined Josh Allen and Joe Burrow you’d have my prototype QB. Rattler is like 3/4 of each of those guys. R3 grade is right because he is frustrating
This feels right. Can’t wait to find out how he looks 2x a year on the rams.
I’m much higher on Rattler. I think he’s just such a weird dark horse. I’m big on his do not GAF gameplay and forgets the bad plays and getting drilled in the face by the time he gets back to the huddle.
Nix. What you see is what you get. I don’t think you need to reinvent the wheel with him or hope he gets more accurate or wonder what happens if he needs to throw the ball at least 20x a game. I don’t have concerns about his size or durability. I don’t have to guess if he can move if need be.
I might be unfair to nix. I thought the Red Rifle comp was a good one.
He just gives me that vibe of ‘not the guy’.
Maye to me I just don’t view as terribly different than a Tanner McKee.
McCarthy to me is the antithesis of what I want at QB, I get the love some folks have. If the Jets didn’t have ARodg-I’d fill in the link with ink.
Dalton, smith, etc.
I don’t have high hopes for Nix. I don’t have low hopes for him either. I like him now better than I’ve ever liked Carr, per example.
I have no allusions he’s going to transcend anything. I just think he does more things well than quite a few in this draft. Right system and all that.
Nix has started for 5 seasons. I feel like you’re getting what you see at this point. There is promise that he can learn to air it out and pass with anticipation, but that’s going to take some work and may never develop.
Rightous abuse of the Seahawk FO over the Adams extension courtesy of KJR and one of the best commenters on local Seattle sport news Hugh Millen:
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/59-dave-softy-mahler-and-dick-25095845/
Starting about 7:10 (ironically)
I was already on Robs side on this but the facts here are outrageous.
I don’t live in market, but as I’ve said before I cannot understand why anyone in the greater Seattle area would listen to 710. Hugh tells it like it is most all of the time from the comments here and from listening when I’m up that way. Contrast that with Wyman’s cheerleading/years long defense of Adams among other crap on that station and I just don’t get listening to 710. Yeah I know, Softy gets annoying but he’s still tolerable.
A great segment…he totally breaks down how the team manufactured all of Adams’ sacks in his “big year” with us.
Right after, Hugh talks about the Geno situation, too.
Excellent analysis.
Consistently good analysis from Hugh Millen
Just found this. I was looking for who Millen thinks the Seahawks should draft as QBOTF. Could not find it.
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/bravo-hugh-millen
As usual, Rob was a few steps ahead of the rest of us.
Is it worthwhile to go through Maye’s 2022 tape to compare to 2023? I wonder how the impact of losing Longo (OC), Downs and Green (WRs) had on him.
I reflect on what you mention when evaluating college QBs and thinking more of what they could be opposed to what you can purely see on tape. Our environment is right for Maye to sit a year and none in that tier have the same physical traits.
So then the question is whether the flaws are more correctable than with the others. Inconsistent footwork and throwing technique (he seems to pat the ball before throwing it) should be correctable. Decision making is a lot tougher.
I would go ahead and watch it. He had more and better weapons last year. Worst case, you can see if/how he improved between the two years.
Maye is one that I look at what he CAN do. And that gets me excited for Seattle taking him. We might be able to get away with someone with a bit less spot on decision making with Pete Carroll gone.
If you want a more complete picture, yes of course.
And with Geno’s contract being what it is, I would draft any qb with the thought of sitting them for a year. This gives the new coaches time to iron out their schemes too. Unless of course the rookie lights it up in preseason like Russ did.
Sneaky-smart move: Seahawks renegotiate D’Wayne Eskridge’s 4th year of his rookie contract, take his salary down $400k or so and if reports are correct, it’s still not guaranteed.
Let’s see if the new regime actually has a brain and will use Eskridge correctly.
By correctly you must mean in situations where he’s less likely to have that small frame injured……i.e. something besides WR sweeps.
Someone needs to make sure the medical tent and staff are ready for 17 games.
Nobody in the know has confirmed this, but there is word on X that Eskridge is playing on a split salary.
Meaning – if he ends up on IR, he doesn’t get his full paycheck. He gets less.
And since there is no guaranteed salary, they can cut him tomorrow, after the minicamps, and before the 53 cutdown without any penalty.
This is about as buy-low as it gets.
That all makes a ton of sense if indeed true.
I am disappointed in this Eskridge move. I get that the renegotiation is possibly a shrewd business decision.
However combine his lack of on field production with the domestic violence suspension, and the Seahawks should have just cut dead weight. Too much trouble for a very replaceable WR5.
They’ve never shown a predilection to cut players for DV, so I wouldn’t hold my breath anytime soon, no matter their apparent “character” stance.
As for the renegotiation, I doubt he makes the final roster, especially if Lockett restructures. The contract they just renegotiated screams “last chance”.
They’ve got DK, JSN, Lockett?, Bobo, Young under contract.
I can see them grabbimg a cheap FA for competition and possibly a day three on a prospect with decent college production and high upside. Imagine the name McCaffrey on the back of a Hawks jersey?
Apparently Eskridge was a JS pick. Otherwise his useless ass should be gone.
I’ve never seen any non-qb look less like a football player than Eskridge. Even Adams at his worst was better than that. Pretty much every play but one down field pass last year that actually got a first down has been a screwup if the ball went Eskridges way…for three years.
Hard to use a player who can’t get on the field
How do you use a guy who’s just bad at football correctly?!
From three years of watching him, I’ve seen he can’t run anything but a sweep or go route, he can’t catch, he can’t block, he can’t do Special Teams. He fumbles if you hand him the ball as a runner, and he can’t break tackles.
He’s a waste of a roster spot as far as I can see. Bo Melton is finally figuring it out in GB, but we drafted him. Should have kept him to develop, and dumped Eskridge years ago.
Eskridge is a waste of roster spot, salary or not. Find some hungry dude..
He might be that hungry dude
If he isn’t, he’ll be out of the league.
Fantastic work as always and invaluable as a tool for fans trying to gain an understanding of the draft. This always draws the most envy from my friends who follow other teams.
On the board itself.:
QB: I Rattler as R3 and Maye/Nix/McCarthy as R4. I’ve done some more study on Maye, and wouldn’t be mad in R3, the first round hype is crazy. This will be another year of breaking from common thought on QBs.
RB: this feels right
WR: I think the two Texas WR are first round, especially after the combine. Corley, Legette & McConkey are 3 WR that scream ‘how did they fall to the second’ potential.
TE: almost every blog of other teams I have checked covets Ben Sinott. Cade Stover couldn’t be more under the radar.
OLine: I think this is close to right: Fuaga is a blue chip to me, Guyton looks more R2 and I would rank Alt higher based on his tape. Dylan McMahon is one of the more attractive players to me. Frazier has become a crush – watched him with some focus – the toughness he showed. If he lasts to the 3rd that is a no brainer.
DLine: to me, Fiske’s move up is an overreaction and Sweat’s drop is too. Really thinking about Newton -he doesn’t look good unless he has a space eater next to him. I think with Sweat, I’d consider him R1 with a character flag (for weight and conditioning). I’ve been higher on Wingo all season and think he should maybe be a round higher. If the Seahawks came away with Wingo in the 3rd I’d consider it a win.
Edge: if not for the miserable LB showing at the combine this group would have gotten a bigger drop. Turner, to me, is not a R1. Verse then Chop, then Latu (but injuries). The depth doesn’t have a Bryce Young type (at least not that I’ve spotted yet).
LB: so let’s sign two vets. I think everyone here could be dropped one round, safe Wilson (who has flags on his flags).
CB: this seems right, and what is nice is that there are attractive names in each round.
Safety: if I was asked preseason I would have ranked DeJean 1 and Nubin 2. Both R1. I still feel that way and would be excited at the the Seahawks landing either. Bishop is a player I think needs more love, his tape was great, and after his testing has to be one to watch.
——
What Id like to see:
A veteran guard – Simpson of Balt is my preference now that Dotson signed.
2 veteran LB: Luvu and Dodson, or another favorable combo that is price conscious
1 veteran Safety: if the price is right (Love range) I’d like Curl from the Commies.
Draft a QB: whispers are forming that Commies may be signing Cousins and looking to trade out (Daniels), a reach for Penix at 16 would turn my stomach – but I ultimately think he works out. Rattler in the 3rd would be fine. I’ve steeled myself for the possibility that there won’t be a new QB this year and understand why.
Focus on the line, but not at the cost of ridiculous drops. If Legette is sitting there in R3, I think you have to take him.
A safety.
Idea draft (using Rob’s board): trade back to 20s to get 2nd. R1. Graham Barton (such a good fit for the Seahawks); R2. Michael Penix; R3. Wingo; R3. Cade Stover; R4 Cole Bishop; R5. Greenfield; R6 Johnny Wilson; R7. Ulofoshio
— —
I’m not following the thread for a lot of fans. Queen and Brooks would be horrible combo, Huff is a better managed Darrell Taylor, McKinney is not some master chess move.
Other than the TE market heat, early days of FA have played out well for the Seahawks. Guard depth is there, LB depth is there, Safety depth is there if they want it. DT is a bit concerning – it will be a test of their resolve for sure.
Great stuff, LCH. I agree with most of your takes, and with Legette in a major way. This WR class is so loaded — he’s a Rd 1 talent any other year who will be an absolute steal in the seond (or even early third if many online mocks would have you believe) if he’s still there.
In terms of eventually replacing Lockett, guys like Anias Smith, Jacob Cowing, and Luke McCaffery fit the mold. But I can’t help but salivate at the thought of DK and Legette out wide with JSN working the slot at some point in the future. That could be absolutely filthy.
Still too early first 15, but I’m starting to think the concern of 5-7 QB going in the first is overblown. I also really need to think about who will pull the trigger on Bowers in the top ten, because someone will.
1.
Caleb Williams
QB USC
2.
Jayden Daniels
QB LSU
3. DEN
J.J. McCarthy
QB Michigan
4.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR Ohio State
5.
Taliese Fuaga
OT Oregon State
6.
Rome Odunze
WR Washington
7.
Troy Fautanu
OG Washington
8.
Jared Verse
EDGE Florida State
9.
Malik Nabers
WR LSU
10.
JC Latham
OT Alabama
11. Dallas
Olumuyiwa Fashanu
OT Penn State
trade
12. Pats
Amarius Mims
OT Georgia
trade
13.
Quinyon Mitchell
CB Toledo
14.
Joe Alt
OT Notre Dame
15.
Brock Bowers
TE Georgia
In this scenario, you hope that Seattle runs up and turns in Chop’s card. I would also advocate for trading back into the end of the first for Penix here – or work the phones like crazy to figure out where you could trade up to in the 2nd to grab him.
I believe Cooper Beebe would be a perfect fit for us at left guard to replace Damien Lewis. I wish we could get him in R3, but I think he’ll go in R2.
Would love Beebe….
In all honesty, there aren’t a lot of quarterbacks after Williams that have me enthralled.
Maye just looks all over the place when trying to navigate the pocket and he makes so many erratic throws. Bo Nix shows a lot of the same signs that Mac Jones did. He always plays within himself. When he had to play against Washington, he wasn’t able to elevate his cast to match Washington’s output. I was initially really in on both Penix and McCarthy. Statistically, they were both great while navigating muddy pockets and also during 3rd downs. They both led winning teams over the past two years and have all the intangibles. But the more you look at the tape, the more you see htat McCarthy just doesn’t have the passing instincts you see in QB prospects that end up becoming great – he’s always just one hitch too late when getting the ball out to a receiver. In college, his arm bailed him out in that regard but NFL-caliber DB’s won’t allow him that benefit. Penix does showcase more conviction in his throws in terms of hitting windows before anyone else sees them but it also seemed like he needed a clean pocket in order to make those throws. He won against Texas and Oregon-level pressure but that was his limit. Michigan-level pressure is the closest thing I got to see to NFL-level pressure on Penix’s film and the same mechanics that got him to the National Championship seemed to be the same mechanics that held him back from throwing efficiently over the pressure he faced against Michigan over the middle.
I haven’t watched enough of Rattler or the other prospects but, all in all, I just don’t know if this QB class has as much juice as others have been touting.
Every year is like this and any QB in range is going to have flaws. Waiting for perfect and drafting only 2 qbs in 14 years is not an answer to our current problem.
Hearing casual rumors and theories that Daniels may drop into the later Top 10. Nothing I’ve seen in print, mind you, but off the cuff remarks on programming from talking heads/analysts on the national sports networks. In the case that WSH sticks at #2 and buys the hype on McCarthy or Maye enough to make one of them their guy, is anyone else completely down with calling NE to trade for #3 and make Daniels our QBOTF? After a year learning the ropes as a backup, I think he could have a long and distinguished career in Seattle.
Daniels would beat out Geno in camp.
His potential for me is to redefine his position.
So yeah, I’d trade 16, 2025, 2026 R1 for Daniels and forget about it. That’s an A+ walking away.
For a FO that has said they value draft picks, i can’t see that happening.
The D and O line will be built first.
When Schneider sees a QB he really likes, there’s no way he’s not going after him
The same FO who gave two 1sts for a frickin safety then paid them a kings ransom? Gave up a 2nd for a ten game rental DL? They damn well better if they could land a franchise QB.
I think you JUMP at the chance to get him. I really doubt he is getting passed up, but I think John is preparing for it just in case.
Daniels ain’t falling
And I’ve not seen anyone saying that
Daniel Jeremiah (consider the source) had Daniels “falling” to #6 and the NYG taking him in a recent mock. Unlikely, but if he gets past WSH, I’m praying JS is on the phone with Eliot Wolf in NE.
So Jeremiah is a Giants fan then?
I bet if you ask Jeremiah today if he thinks that will happen he’ll tell you no chance
Imagine what the Hawks could look like if we added the following in free agency:
Frankie Luvu or Azeez Al-Shaair – LB
Chris Jones, Leonard Williams or Grover Stewart – DL
A good Safety (there are tons)
If it’s Grover or Azeez, maybe we could also add Lavonte David on a one year deal.
That’d give us a difference maker on defense at all three levels
You also get back Nwosu
Then we followed up with the following in the draft:
Bowers TE
Beebe LG
Tanor Bortolini C
Any of a number of Safeties
Maybe a developmental QB2
Finally, we fill out a LB with what’s left (late draft, other teams’ cuts, a couple UFAs, etc.
I could go to war with that!
For me the FO are going big in free agency for a LB. The draft isn’t the best for that position this year, and looking at how the Ravens D was built and also given that Mcdonald was LB coach for a couple or few years seems to stack up.
If they do, it will be dumb
Would love to see a Devin White reclamation project. As high an upside as anyone available (?), and for much cheaper.
You mean trying to rebuild a different player LIKE Bush, not another year with that non-football player?!
Right?!
Yes. Take a cheap one year flyer on a high upside player who could use a change of scenery.
Ok. Whew! Had me worried you wanted Bush back…that dude was not good.
Here’s some value-based free agents who I’d be interested in considering in wave 2/3 of FA:
Andre James – C
Jordan Hicks – LB
Daquan Jones – DL
Kenneth Murray – LB (could Macdonald fix him like he did Queen?)
Any of the many safeties
My priority outside FA is Robert Hunt. What a beast. Miami may have a hard time retaining him.
Jerry Jeudy traded to Browns for a 5th and 6th. Trade deadline at midseason people reasonably thought he was worth a 4th.
Not saying Jeudy is worth anything (I thought this a good trade for Denver), but one data point on the WR trade market ahead of this draft for anyone thinking we should trade DK or get any value for Lockett.
Not a bad move for the Browns either, that’s about where the draft drops off. They also didn’t have many picks as it was and now don’t have to spend higher one on a receiver.
Yeah they had extra 5th and 6th and got Cooper and Moore for picks also. Both sides think they won the trade which is a good indication of value.
Juedy, Cooper, Chubb, Willis are on the last years of their contracts in 2024 and the Browns have no more juice to squeeze out of Garrett’s and Njoku’s contracts.
I suppose they could restructure Watson again. Actually I would love to see him playing on a $93m cap hit in 2026.
This is pretty much it. Do or die, fellas.
I always thought Jeudy was a poor man’s Calvin Ridley/Amari Cooper, a cut below those two. He’s had misfortune at QB for a couple years. But, he’s about what I expected.
Not surprised with the Browns’ interest, but I don’t see him as a true difference maker.
So much potential. He puts in zero effort when not getting the ball, won’t block. Had a clean slate with Peyton and complained to the team they were withholding throws to him to keep his stats down and avoid paying him top of market money despite never playing like a top WR. Broncos opted to restructure and pay Tim Patrick who hasn’t seen the field in 2 years instead of keeping Jeudy which says enough about him. Fresh start with Browns now to prove everyone wrong I suppose.
I wonder if we will ever know what the Fiske red flag was for? Did he have many prior injuries that could lead to a situation like Gurley? Was it actually a red flag or did the rumor mill blow it out of proportion?
Tony said it was medical and players every year get flagged on medicals
Rob what are your thoughts on James Williams safety out of Miami. Huge guy I didn’t watch a whole lot of Miami football this year and DB is not a position that I can really tell if someone is good or not
I thought he was ok. Someone you want around the line not in coverage. Day three, kind of meh on both Miami safeties. There are far better safeties elsewhere for me
Beginning to be a part of the trade-back cult, unless absolute franchise changing talent is there waiting.
Just mocked this:
22. Joe Alt OT
78. Ja’Tavion Sanders TE
81. Michael Hall Jr. DT
97. Christian Haynes IOL
Been trying to get Fautanu on a tradeback, becoming my dream “Seattle Seahawks select” player this year.
NFL insiders haven’t tweeted anything in a few hours.
I’m imagining them playing in the yard with their kids and then having one last dinner with the family before entering their office fortresses, replete with an espresso machine, a fridge full of energy drinks and multiple phone charger cords for the next few days.
Lockett news!
Mike Garafolo
@MikeGarafolo
·
1m
#Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett is remaining with Seattle on a restructured deal, source says: Two years, $30 million with a max value of $34 million with nearly $13 million guaranteed this year.
Is this a new deal? Or they did they just move around the cap hit over 2 seasons.
We need a little more info to get it right.
My guess is they pick up $7-9.5m.
Depends on how aggressively they structured it.
My prediction for the Hawks in free agency.
#1 Leonard Williams hits the open markets and gets a deal the Hawks can’t match. Instead they sign Grover Stewart, Johnathan Hankins or ideally DJ Reader.
# 2 Hawks sign Jordan Brooks on a short term team friendly deal. They also add another veteran free agent at LB like Willy Hay Jr. Bobby does not resign and retires as a Hawk and 1st ballot HOFer.
#3 Jeremy Chinn is signed to come in and play the hybrid safety role Kuke Hamilton played in Baltimore.
#4 Hawks sign at least on veteran on the OL. Jonah Williams would be the perfect fit at he could be insurance for Abe Lucas at RT and slide inside ideally if Abe is healthy. Think they bring back Evan Brown and Jake Curhan as well.
#5 Resign Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson at TE
If they were to add
-Chinn at Safety
– Gay Jr at LB
-Hankins at DT
-Jonah Williams OL
Resign
-Parkinson, Fant at TE
-Brown and Curhan at OL
-Brooks at LB
Then focus on the trenches in the draft and add some youth at LB and S.
Use this year as a building year and clean out all the deal cap $ etc to really go for it in 2025 when the coaching staff knows exactly what they have and want.
I don’t see how this sets you up to ‘go for it’ in 2025 though
There are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the Seahawks….. in 2024.
However, I wouldn’t trade the Seahawks FO for the Bronco’s FO dumpster fire.
First you cut RW and take a BIG hit on the cap. Now you trade WR Jeudy for a bag of balls. If someone (GM) doesn’t get fired by the end of 2024 in Bronco land… I’ll be shocked.
At least I can understand what Seattle has been doing, unlike the “high” club.
Jason La Canfora said we could have interest in Jeremy Chinn from the Panthers as a player most similar to Kyle Hamilton. Thoughts?
It would make some sense, sure
Chinn is a little Hamilton-like with his size. However he is probably closer to Jamal Adams than Kyle Hamilton. Chinn isn’t good in coverage and got benched by the Panthers last season. In fact, Chinn gave up one of the highest completed rates in the league for as safety his first couple of seasons at a near 70% clip.
Locket just restructured 2 years 30 13 guaranteed
Really need Cha expertise here. Not sure what that means. But Tyler is just cool player and even better person.
scroll up a little ^^^^^
Right so from 27 mil to 15 mil cap hit? So he took pay cut or contract extension. May be will have to wait for more info.
I commented on this a while ago. I thought they’d give him more total guaranteed, but add a couple extra years to spread that guaranteed money over that time. Void years will have a few million each in dead money, but nothing prohibitive.
It should be a great deal for both parties. Lockett gets to retire a Hawk while getting more guaranteed money, and the Hawks get to keep a good player, while lowering his cap hit. They now have no real news at WR, except for rotational guys down the depth chart and camp competition.
The best possible outcome if the contract is structured that way.
Great news about Lockett and a new YouTube video! Seahawks Saturday it is! Thanks again for creating this community Rob!