There’s only one type of free agent deal worth having. It’s the ‘Bennett and Avril’ type. You get a player who is weirdly underestimated by the league on a cheap contract, they come in and play fantastically well and you wonder how on earth it all happened. This is rare.
Apart from that, free agency is just full of pitfalls and disappointment. The Seahawks will likely not find any serious solutions to any significant problems next week.
Free agency is where second tier (at best) players get first tier contracts. Lesser players come in on cheap deals and fans convince themselves they’ve got a bargain, only to realise that there was a reason all along why that player was available on such a ‘great’ deal.
Fans online will pick their favourites and hope for the dopamine hit that comes with a breaking news alert from Adam Schefter. More often than not, though, they’re out of range in terms of salary and/or they don’t justify their price tag.
A year ago I really wanted the Seahawks to be active in free agency. Looking back, it’s probably because I just wanted some hope as the Pete Carroll era became increasingly stale. When they splashed out on Dre’Mont Jones it was exciting. Look how that panned out in year one.
It’s a reminder that nothing truly gets solved at this time of year. It’s exciting to play matchmaker and see where certain players end up. But unless you’re snagging Chris Jones from the Chiefs, you aren’t adding elite talent. You’re probably just adding a bad contract.
Reflecting on last year has helped shape my thoughts on free agency and team building. I think the only veteran market worth a dime is the trade market. Not expensive trades, either. Calculated deals. The kind that gives the 49ers the NFL’s best left tackle for a mid-round pick and the best running back/swiss army knife in the league. The kind that gives the Seahawks a generational heart and soul playmaker capable of creating seismic activity.
Non-elite picks for blue-chip talent might sound fanciful but it’s amazing how every now and again those opportunities present themselves. Sticking to those types of deal and avoiding the horrendous overpay (see: Jamal Adams, Russell Wilson) or the lousy expensive rental (Sheldon Richardson) is the key.
It’s not even so much for top-level talent. The Browns just took a shot to nothing on Jerry Jeudy, giving the Broncos a ham sandwich to see if their excellent offensive-minded Head Coach can kick-start his career. Previously, they traded a slightly larger ham sandwich to Dallas for Amari Cooper. Those opportunities are out there, they’re low-cost, low-risk, high-upside tosses of the hoop.
I think aggressive trades to push you over the tap are worth considering, provided you have a proper grasp of whether you’re in position to consider it. The Rams, when they dealt for Von Miller, very much were. The Seahawks, overreacting to a three-game losing streak for San Francisco and a fortunate win over the Browns, were very much not in a position to start trading second round picks away last season, only to get blown out by a legit contender (Baltimore) days later.
Other than smart trades, team-building is all about the draft. And you need to have fundamental team building philosophies and targets to set up the kind of teams you need to be successful.
For me, that means the following. You’ve got to find a difference maker at quarterback, give them some weapons and protection. Then you’ve got to find a difference making pass rusher. If you can acquire those ingredients, you can be very competitive. Once you have those key areas filled, you can work around other needs.
At the moment I think the Seahawks only have the weapons box ticked. They need a long term answer at QB. They need better protection. They don’t have a star pass rusher.
I don’t think free agency will provide any answers. This is a draft dilemma for the Seahawks. Their long term quarterback will need to be drafted, possibly after moving up. The interior O-line market has already exploded, with Kevin Dotson getting $16m a year. Good luck acquiring sure-fire solutions there with $33.8m in effective cap space. Pass rushers? Aside from Jones, who’s destined to stay in Kansas City, there isn’t anyone capable of winning you a game.
The Seahawks need to start turning a few singles into grand slam home runs. They’ve had a couple of good drafts, delivering core talent. Yet they need to find some stars in unlikely places, which is incredibly difficult, admittedly, but no less true. They need to find a Maxx Crosby type in round four. They need to go and get that guard in the middle rounds who plays well beyond his draft placing. They need to find their next franchise quarterback.
Chuckling, shrugging and saying, ‘good luck with that’ might be the auto-pilot response — but it’s the only way they’re going to get back into serious contention.
For that reason, I couldn’t care less if the Seahawks spend money next week. If they save money, avoid bad contracts, repair their cap (it’s been broken for too long and littered with bad/dead money) and let the market come to them — that feels like a good idea. You still need to set out to be as competitive as possible and there’s no benefit to being mediocre or bad in year one under Mike Macdonald. Yet if the big personnel additions for the team need to come from the draft and/or opportunistic trades in the future, there’s little sense splurging next week.
That doesn’t mean spending no money either. Leonard Williams is a good football player and bringing him back would be a positive — it just can’t be for a Justin Madubuike contract. It needs to be a deal that chimes with a soon-to-be 30-year-old defensive tackle in the ‘good not great’ category. He needs a ‘good not great’ salary.
Ditto Jordyn Brooks. This is a lousy draft at linebacker. Panicking and throwing money at Brooks and/or Patrick Queen would be an error. Some Seahawks fans might love it — but I don’t think swapping out a bunch of bad money at safety and shifting it to linebacker would be wise.
Big contracts, from now on, need to be reserved for top players — or players with the potential to reach the pinnacle at their respective positions. Prioritise key positions. Third contracts need to be treated with extreme suspicion.
If you can create the structure of quarterback-weapons-protection-pass rusher, you’ll find the overall performance of the team likely elevates, allowing you to ‘fit’ players in. Especially if you have a good staff — and I think most people would agree that the Seahawks now have a good staff.
Thus, I’d sit out the first wave of free agency and a decent chunk of the second and wait for the market to come to Seattle. Opportunity should be the order of the day. I’m not excited for an aggressive tilt at the market.
When I read NFL.com’s list of the top-100 free agents, I started at 100 and worked back. That’s how I’d approach this.
For example, instead of splashing out on Geno Stone — how much will Alohi Gilman cost? He’s #88 on the list but had an 86.1 PFF rating last season. He’s a good tackler, he’s versatile, he has a nose for the ball. PFF projects a two-year contract worth $3.75m a year. That sounds like a deal that could work.
How much would it cost to poach Jordan Fuller from the Rams? He’s #66 on the list and PFF says he could get $4.6m a year on a two-year deal. He’s another good tackler with range and playmaking ability. He’s in the ‘he can do a job’ category at a possible reasonable price range.
Rather than throw big money at Brooks and Queen, what about adding Blake Cashman? His PFF grade was 83.7 in 2023 and he’s projected to earn $4.25m a year for two years. He excelled under DeMeco Ryans. He can rush the passer, he missed only 7% of his tackles (among the best in the league) and his coverage ability is underrated.
The Seahawks need to draft a tight end who can provide value and mismatch opportunities but they also need depth. Rather than splurge to keep Noah Fant, could they just go and get someone like Austin Hooper for a cheap $2m deal to pair with a rookie? He’s 29 and won’t move the needle but again — this feels like a position where they’re going to need to draft someone to save money and try and find an impact skill-set.
If the guard market is exploding, why not try and find a ‘type’ at value? John Simpson hasn’t graded well in Baltimore but he absolutely hammers people. That’s what Ryan Grubb says he wants. Are you prepared to take a hit on overall performance to deliver violence? PFF projects he’ll earn $5.25m a year.
Of course you always look for reclamation projects too. Jeremy Chinn and Devin White have seen their stars fall. Mike Macdonald feels like a good coach to get them back on track, if their markets are weak.
Macdonald also turned late summer additions in Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy into ultra value contributors. That approach feels like it could be what the Seahawks need this year, even if it doesn’t work out.
Look at how the Ravens have been built. They traded up for a franchise quarterback when they sensed an opportunity to strike. They found a playmaking tight end in round four. They found a pass-rushing defensive tackle in round three. They were opportunistic in the Roquan Smith trade. They found value on the market. Everything else has since come together.
What do I think the Seahawks will do? Schneider says they’ve prioritised Leonard Williams. That, in the past, has still meant setting a limit. It sounds, however, like they’re determined to keep him. They’ve created a lot of cap room, including re-working Tyler Lockett’s deal this weekend. Is this to be financially aggressive in a competitive market? I sense it’s because they’ve got a lot to do — with starting roles to fill and depth to improve. I also wonder if their aim is to try and solve as many needs as possible because, as discussed, their intention might be to trade up for a quarterback.
The key to the off-season isn’t next week. It’s the draft. It’s being clear as to whether you see a potentially great quarterback in this class who is acquirable. If so, exhaust all opportunities to get him. If not, then you pivot to getting the best trenches player and they need to hit on some mid/later round guys.
Let other teams win free agency. It’s more important for the Seahawks to find franchise cornerstones via the draft.
I offered some video thoughts on this subject which you can check out here…
Long time reader, I have never agreed with you more. This is the way.
Indeed – This is the way!
Rob – always such a clear-eyed thinker and spot on analysis on such questions. Thanks for all the work you do.
I agree.
At this stage of the team, I want them to build properly. I’m excited about the new coaching staff because all of the main coaches (Head, OC, DC) are known to elevate guys. So, can we tap into free agents that can be turned from average to good or good to great?
I’m really hoping they fill out the roster with good players that have much more in the tank. This, I feel like has always been John’s best trades or signings.
Well…how about that Chris Jones contract eh???
It’s the beginning of the end for the Chiefs. I give them two more years before they get bogged down with injuries to players with expensive guaranteed contracts. After that it will be a slide down to the Cowboys level.
It’s probably worth it since they have multiple championships.
Not gonna happen unless the greatest QB in the NFL suddenly turns into Dak Prascott. Or vise versa. Both of which are just as likely.
One thing I would add to this — I don’t think it was very attractive for defensive players to play in Carroll’s defense. None of them put up big stats, the units were struggling and Carroll was giving off a vibe of being a spent force for some time
I suspect a LOT of players are going to be very intrigued to play for Mike Macdonald and his defense which has just given a bunch of players timely careers year’s in Baltimore leading to big pay-days
But do you mean players who will cost the team money and count against the comp pick formula? It so, I hope not. Just wait til after the window closes, and fill out your team then.
Ian, they have to sign players
You need to let this comp pick obsession go
There are three legitimate scenarios.
1. Fantastic low- to medium-cost player(s) can be signed on a second contract. Players(s) you will gladly build around. Compensatory picks be damned!
2. Panic sign overrated expensive vets that affect your comp pick formula. You feel like you need to compete in year 1.
3. You fill out your roster with 3rd wave free agents that are willing to wait until after the comp pick deadline. 1
Option 1 is clearly best. Option 2 is rsky and usually blows up. We shouldn’t discount option 3, especially in year 1 of a rebuild.
Imagine going into 2025 with extra 3rd to 6th round picks, a young roster, and no anchor contracts for 30+ year old vets.
Getting a third round comp pick ‘and others’ isn’t realistic. I don’t think people realise what this actually means. It means sitting on your hands with massive holes everywhere and hoping weeks later players are still available
That ain’t happening
This is the kind of tactic you can do when you have a fairly complete roster, can replace 2-3 pieces in the draft and call it a day
Seattle can’t go into the draft having missed out at filling the LB and TE spots as those positions evaporate in FA. Last year the LBs went immediately (leading them to make two poor 1 year signings and being back in this position). This year there have been reports that teams are teams are concerned about the TE market, thus the spate of early signings.
And, that is what I hope they do … lean into Mike Macdonald as a strength and as a draw. He said he would adjust his scheme to the players he has and he seemed at his best scheming pressure w/o having stud pass rushers. Do that. Seattle already has some promising players. I want to see what he can do with them plus some strategic additions.
Since they absorbed the dead money from their cuts this year leaving more for next, I’ve been optimistic that John and Mike would be cautious in year one, see what they can do with what they’ve got, and use the money next year to re-sign keepers and “fill in the blanks”.
Question for Draftmaster Rob (or the Statonites):
Do you have a feeling about any players that are currently on the roster that you think MM can coach up to a noticeable difference? Perhaps players that weren’t being utilized correctly? I’m hoping Hall is one.
Mike Morris worked with Mac before so he might benefit from that. I have high hopes for Bryant, Jerrick Reed, Woolen and even Darrell Taylor.
Anyone on defense frankly
I think Carroll’s staff were poor and they’ve underachieved for a long time
The “scheme” has been bananas for years. Going to be a breath of fresh air to have a coach that tailors the scheme to their players and opponents.
But… but… Top Billin’ says Clint Hurtt is the bomb and he’s never wrong.
The fact people listen to that person is incredible
Hurtt was lucky to get a job as a DL coach. He’s one banana peel from having to go back and coach DL in the college ranks for peanuts.
Only thing that explains that characters popularity is that many people want someone else to do their thinking for them.
Dear Rob,
I’m not sure this is an accurate take. Plenty of players had career years in PC’s defensive system with HOF’ers to boot. Defensive coaches have gone on to be HC’s too. I think moving forward doesn’t have to be a “referendum” on PC.
The plan you’ve laid out is precisely what PC subscribed to as highlighted by your mention of Beast, Avril, and Bennett via trade. I would add Coleman, Clemons, Clowney, among many others…yes, some FA signings didn’t work and trades but your article speaks of rolling the dice which he did. He crapped out on bad trades for high draft pick players (Harvin, Adams, Graham..etc) but it worked in other cases too.
Plenty of players left PC’s defense to sign high profile contracts too. Has McDonald earned that cred yet, not sure, we will find out shortly. Personally, I think McDonald’s strengths are with the front 7 and Brooks could easily thrive in his system the same way Queen has. I think Brooks could be a keeper. I think Seattle has already hit on pass rushers in the mold you e spoken of. Nwosu and Mafe are prime examples. I wouldn’t sell their production short, especially w/o both having a chance to play together with Leonard Williams.
My hope with McDonald’s is a few tweaks with his scheme can improve on what’s already here on defense. QB of the future could very well be in this draft but I think the QB we have now with an improved defense and the cap room made can win 12 games this coming season. Seattle has a very good roster and building through the draft is the right way as you’ve stated. They’ve hit on plenty that’s there!
You’re talking about a decade ago though
Nobody in the last few years has had a big statistical year other than linebackers collecting tackles
The units have struggled massively
Pass rushers don’t stack up sacks, the safeties don’t collect turnovers, the mystique of Seattle’s defense is long gone
It isn’t 2014 any more. Since the 2018 reset there’s been very little reason for anyone to want to come and play for Carroll’s defense
Reed last year, Darrell Taylor 2 years ago, Nwosu before injury, and Mafe last season all had great statistal years at bargain prices and post 2018. Same could be said for Woolen, or DJ Teed for that matter. PC has had players put up breakout years since the rebuild.
I agree in large with your offseason approach, I just don’t think it’s that dissimilar than PC’s. He crapped out on big trades by misalocating resources to fringe positions like TE (Graham), Harvin (HB/WR), and Adams (SS). In retrospect, Harvin was really Deebo Samuel’s before Deebo, and PC thought Adams could Kam with more versatility…Graham was suppose to a mismatch for his star QB. Those moves didn’t pan out SF trades could’ve backfired too. I just respect the positional allocation more with low draft capital being offered. But SF also failed miserably with Lance…hitting on a 7th QB cures a lot of ills.
My take is, I think with a good (not great, but very good) roster McDonald could take this unit over the top. Same with Grubbs. The LB position has been shit since KN left and I always wanted KJ to assume that role under PC. But McDonald has proven he can get great LB in his system. Seattle is just missing one 330 DT clog in the middle for early downs and a replacement for Wagner.
Come on, these are NOT ‘great’ statistical years
While I agree that free agency rarely provides value, it sure seems that we’re setting ourselves up to spend.
That makes sense. Does that mean fill our defense through free agency where veterans choose Seattle and revive their careers and the offense through the draft? Would we be comfortable starting say 2 rookies on the interior OL? And another rookie at TE?
I’d love to see Jeremy Chin and Devon White revive their careers in a Hawks uniform next year!
Anyone else we should keep an eye out for?
I’m thinking Zinters from Michigan will be starting at guard for us next year.
Go Hawks!
Great writeup Rob and agree 100% with this approach.
Those year should be for Mike McDonald and his staff to install their system and culture, figure out what they have and need. Save as much cap space as possible for next year so you can be flexible.
Most imporantly find your QBOF in the draft and determine who are going to be the new leaders of this team that they can build around going forward.
Love the moves JS has made this off-season so far and it gives me hope they are on a new track not the same old resign a bunch of average guys and use up your cap space without improving the team.
I can live with starting a rookie in a year that is slightly more focused on building up this Mike Macdonald team. I’m more concerned about them feeling like they need to draft a particular position, instead of drafting the best available players.
Comp picks, comp picks, COMP PICKS!!!
I am beyond disgusted that LA and SF will both have SIXTEEN draft selections next season. Meanwhile Seattle will once again have ZERO!!! Every year LA and SF add better players than Seattle, but some how come away with as many comp picks as humanly agreeable. Every year Seattle bumbles and blunders away valuable comp picks by signings a bunch of mediocre scrubkins. I am so sick and tired of this. This is the one place where John Schneider has been routinely outclassed by his division rivals. All so he can sign doofus level players like Bruce Irvin, Cedric Obungewe, and PJ Phinney. How on earth can SF and LA both have 32 combined draft selections next season?!?!?! It makes me want to violently vomit. I just may have to boycot next year’s draft. It will be vomit inducing watching those two already superior teams draft 2.5 times per round!!!! This along with bungling away 1st and 2nd round picks like they are worthless garbage is why I still feel Schneider should have been sacked along with grandad Pete. Prove me wrong Schneider.
Also I still continue to not care about next year’s (or the year after) record. I hope Seattle are terrible. Best case scenario is Pete like 9 win seasons ans maybe sneaking in for a wild card round loss. No thanks! This is why we all rightfully wanted to get rid of Pete. Continuing his legacy is the worst thing ever. It will continue our mediocre draft position, no comp picks, and inability to ever get TQBOTF!! I recall the phrase Suck for Luck. I say suck for no more mediocre picks! Please sign no one!!!
PS – I am incredibly disappointed in Schnieder restructuring Lockett. Just a continuation of more Pete “good guys/good vibes/leadership” sentimentality that has led to eternal mediocrity. This team need to be ruthless, not sentimental. I’m sure Tyler is a nice boy. But he’s only helping Seattle stay mediocre, and continuing Pete ball.
1. Why do you keep saying they have 16 draft picks each next year? Free agency hasn’t even started yet. Nobody knows who’s getting comp picks next year, aside from the coaching/GM hire related ones. The Rams get comp picks for Morris and that’s it
2. It’s very easy to say ‘get comp picks’ but people don’t actually understand what that means. It means basically waiting for a deadline after the draft to sign players, to avoid cancelling out potential comp picks. You can maybe do this for one or two spots, but not 6-8. It’s just not realistic to set the aim of ‘protect comp picks at all costs’ and neither has it shown to be any precursor to successful drafting
3. The Lockett restructure is a great deal. Now instead of paying him to play somewhere else, they’re paying him to play here while saving cap. Win-win
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39686283/49ers-rams-get-5-selections-compensatory-picks-handed-out
“The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams each received five additional selections Friday”
Yes, because of staff hires from a year ago, and they don’t have 16 picks next year each
If it’s “easier said than done” to get comp picks, why are SF and LA so good at it every year?
SF has been able to replenish good-to-great players from the draft and from trades, so they do not need to sign or re-sign expensive players in free agency. The Rams has significant amount of their cap tied up in a few elite players (Stafford, Donald, Cooper Kupp, etc.) and don’t have the money for other good players in free agency.
Because they have drafted well and teams go after stacked rosters. It happened to Seattle in 2013-2015. Nobody is going after Seattle’s free agents lately because we haven’t had good drafts. Also, SF has gamed the system on minority coaches getting hired.
Between the past 2 drafts and recent changes in leadership, the Hawks are trending towards a club that will have plenty of comp picks in the future. It’s one of the marks of a well run franchise which the Hawks hadn’t been as Pete’s power/control increased. There were little to no comp picks the last several years, along with a habit of overpaying for underperforming familiar players.
Everything that’s happened so far this offseason should inspire confidence that they’re headed in the right direction. Exciting times to be a Hawk fan!
It may be controversial to say. But I think it’s pure poppycock that Mike McDaniel counted. I know that’s not “PC” to say. But come on now. Pure poppycock.
It’s always nonsense that a team like Seattle can give a guy like Robert Salah a shot, but not get any reward. Only the team who hired him after?
Because they have staff who are being poached who are diverse candidates
That’s how they do it
I’ve been wondering why the Hawks didn’t get an extra pick this season for losing Sean Desai prior to last season. Must not have qualified for it in some way.
You only get comp picks for losing staff to HC or GM jobs
Got it. Thanks.
Yes! The Lockett restructure is good. Without Lockett, WR depth is a problem AND we get more cap room. This could affect free agency and the draft. A win-win indeed.
The comp pick obsession was comical before, now it has become lunacy.
And the Lockett take is absolute rubbish. The guy had a down year where he STILL had nearly 900 yards. You do not throw that out the window. Helping them stay mediocre? Good god, he’s a damned locker room leader who elevates his teammates. Sentimentality? It’s sound fiscal responsibility is what it is.
The absolutes people have come to stand behind this year have been off the charts.
Completely agree.
Why don’t we worry about getting a good roster first then maybe the magic comp pick fairy will smile at us.
Because I’d rather have that money under my pillow, that’s why!
You can bank on that. 20 times.
I am pleased to read about Lockett”s restructure. They were never going to be able to trade him with a $27 Million cap hit. Also he is still too productive of a player to cut outright. Let him play out the next 2 years in Seattle.
I don’t understand how the comp picks work, but if you sign can sign a contributing player in Free Agency, who cares about potentially losing a 5th Round pick.
But how do you know you’re signing a “contributing player” and not Cedric Obungewe?
Yeah. That’s why you need to identify good dudes that fits what you want to do on both sides of the ball. In addition, guys that the coaches can develop.
The solution isn’t to simply not sign anyone.
It ultimately comes down to identifying talent…whether that is in free agency or the draft (comp picks).
Or rather drafting LJ Collier? Both ways is a crap shoot. Signing FAs generally mean you have gotten to at least see them play at the NFL level.
You mean Cedric Ogbuehi? And BJ Finney above?
We didn’t suck because of those two FA misses, but they were no help.
Can’t understand how people are so quick to decide Locket is washed, and no blame for last year falls on Waldron, Carrol, or Geno. Especially considering Seattle has been desperately seeking a third WR who can play more than 10 games a season and contribute consistently since we lost Tate and then Kearse, and we finally put 3 on field and everyone wants to blow that up?
I’m glad Locket is here, I think DK, Locket, JSN are going to tear it up this year and next. I’m excited.
Not unless we get a better QB to get those three the ball when they’re wide open.
I was advocating for a Lockett cut just a few days. But its hard to see how this restructure is anything but a major win for the Hawks.
You really need to lay off the Mountain Dew.
Ian is 1000% right here. With the latest comp pick releases the 49ers have received 16 comp picks over the last 3 years. If you’re just going by the standard number of picks per draft(7 picks). That’s 2 extra draft classes added. Hard to compete when you’re getting 0 year in and year out. It’s also not good that the Rams are getting good at accumulating comp picks given how well they draft.
Like it or not the Seahawks are in the same boat as the Raiders and Broncos. They all are in a division with 2 Goliath Organizations. The only way to have a serious shot at beating the Chiefs, 49ers, Rams and Chargers(with Herbert and Harbaugh) is to burn it down and fully reload. Half measures are just going to keep you in the Jeff Fisher 9-8/8-9 zone or worse.
1. Ian isn’t right as he said they had 16 picks each next year
2. The 49ers have done nothing with their comp picks. They are basically, at best, early fourth round value picks. They get them for having front office and coaching staff hires. NOT because they just sit out signing anyone into July
3. No, you don’t have to burn it down and reload to compete with the Rams and 49ers
I don’t think anyone is going to look at the Seahawks, Raiders, and Broncos and pull the ‘ol Pam Beasley: “it’s the same picture.”
It’s a nice thing to happen, but there are much, much bigger things to worry about when it comes to fielding a good roster.
Absolutely agree. Tyrel Dodson and Jordan Fuller types over Geno Stone and Frankie Luvu types. As much as I want to feel good about the team short-term the main thing I want is simple. I want to see the team trending the right direction, developing their identity, and being smart.
They ain’t signing Tyrel Dodson
I think people have forgotten his backstory
Has he had a recurrence of DV or incidents since? I am not aware of any when I looked earlier this year.
I tend to think people deserve second chances, live it with my own business.
I’ve known a lot of young men who have had their lives altered because of bad decisions with women that landed them unfairly with DV charges when they weren’t the aggressor, but someone had to go to jail.
Unfortunately the real abusers get away with years or decades of abuse without charges.
One bad night followed by 4 clean years? I’d at least do some diligence.
No recurrence is necessary to come to my initial conclusion
Thanks Rob. I appreciate your stance on this.
You are in a rebuild / retool year. Not spending big money on over the hill or possibly over the hill guys would be a wise move. They have to clean up the books for the 2025 season, then 2026 they can go hog wild.
If Seattle went 9-8 in 2024 but had a top 20 defense and lost some close games while showing progress in stopping the run and increased QB pass rush (sacks)…. then I would be satisfied.
I do not expect any moves day 1 of FA…. unless they bring back one of their own FA.
My name is Curtis and I endorse this article 100%.
That said…
If the Chargers do release Khalil Mack as rumored, the Seahawks have to place a call and buy him a steak dinner.
The man is a force of nature.
He’s 33. He played 81% of the defensive snaps last year and had 17 sacks and 21 TFL, 5 forced fumbles and 10 passes defensed.
If there is a midpoint between ‘aging superstar giving a team a break’ and ‘team wanting to add one more good piece’ I say you have to strongly, strongly, consider it.
And it satisfies the comp pick crowd, as he would not count in the formula.
You don’t dip into the Rainy Day fund for just anyone. For Mack? Yeah.
He still has it big time, why would they release him? Cap?
He has a $38m cap number and the Chargers are underwater.
A lot of is isn’t guaranteed and has roster bonus dates in a couple weeks.
If we do make a “splash” move, id much rather have a younger player coming into his prime who could be with us for years. For me, its Robert hunt, if we could get him at market value.
Mack is a great player, but itd be so short term and at a time when we are rebuilding.
Cha, I agree on Mack. If they can get him for a reasonable if high salary, I’m 100% for it. He’s always seemed a pretty complete player to me, if a better pass rusher and run stuffer than coverage guy. Whether they get him in trade, or see if he’s cut, I’d love to have him. Just not at all costs.
But oh yes, Id pay him a good salary and trade a fourth or fifth for him.
I can’t see them making all these moves to free up $50MM cap space and not make a couple splashy moves. Of course I’d like to avoid the overpay like everyone else, but this is starting to feel like they will be buying a couple top 50 free agents
50 Mill will be gone quickly.
18 for Leonard Williams
7 for Jordan Brooks
7 for Noah Fant
After those 3 only 18 Mill left to round out the roster.
If you add a mid level guy like Chinn, there’s another 5-7.
Money for a “splashy” move isn’t there unless you count L. Williams.
That assumes they’ll sign those guys and/or that they’ll sign for those year one cap hits
The biggest thing to effect the Hawks has been the inability to coach up players. They lack of ability to coach up any DL or OL has been disastrous. The inability to coach up safeties and LB has been horrid. The inability to get production from the TE group when loaded has been comical. The only position group the Hawks have had success at is RB and CB.
The ability to coach up and put players in a position to succeed, makes it possible to play the end of the FA Market, rely on your draft class, and spend money at Core key positions when the opportunity becomes available.
Just, please…no ridiculous contracts that we will be regretting a year from now…even for Leonard Williams
“They don’t have a star pass rusher”
The one the thing that gives me hope on biggest issue #2 is how Baltimore, without a star pass rusher, lead the league in sacks. Let’s hope Macdonald can bring that here.
This is where I’m at after the choaching shift
Autocorrect by deer friend 😉
You must of been reading my keystrokes because I was about to ask for this post and then felt guilty asking for anything with all the great content.
I am inclined to agree with this analysis. I touched on it in a comment on the horizontal board, and completely agree on Simpson as a great addition.
Perhaps because I spend most my time on Seahawks boards, I was hearing a non-stop run of Brooks and Queen and a couple other players, so I thought that Luvu may have been had at a bargain, that appears to have been misguided on my part.
Kamren Curl is the safety I have my eye on, I think he would be a good scheme fit. Chinn on a one year prove it would be ok. But I think it is better to just sign one, and rely on the draft for others. (Look at Curl for an explainer).
A prospect that I’m increasingly warming up to as an alternative to L/W is Teair Tart – who looks as good as anybody at times, then maddeningly not. He also clashed with coaches in Tennessee.
Isaiah Simmons and Julian Okwara are two edge candidates I like.
It’s weird to me. Curl and Xavier McKinney seem like players that should be paid well based on their ages and production. But…I wonder what the NFL has to say about that.
Sportsteac says 4/15(per) for Curl. I’m far out at that price!
Thought he might command half that. Or similar to Love.
I appreciate this strategy. Given the primary objective is to solve the QB problem, would you….
1. Trade multiple R1 picks for Jayden Daniels
2. Trade a couple of R1 picks for JJ McCarthy
3. Stick and pick Penix or Maye
4. Trade down for Rattler or Nix
5. Something else entirely
1. Easy.
But that is because I believe Daniels has the potential to be a multi-MVP season QB and represents and evolution of the position.
+1
I think Penix will go top 10, certainly top 13. And he’s my guy. You can’t teach what he can do.
I’m not interested in McCarthy unless he falls, would be intrigued with Maye or Rattler, but Penix is the guy I want to see them trade up for, if anyone, outside of Daniels. And we ain’t getting him.
Not saying Penix is a sure bet, but he’s got the talent. I can’t see any QB worth taking a chance on being a reach in the first round. You take your shots. If it works out, nobody will care how others said you could have waited.
But doing what Niners did with Lance will wreck you.
If JS trades up for Penix, I’ll be excited. If he trades up for Maye or Rattler and passes on Penix, I’ll be freaked out. But they gotta go get a QB they believe in.
First off, bravo Rob. I absolutely agree with your thought process and approach. Another great article that makes a lot of sense and goes contrary to what most folks writing about the Hawks have posited regarding free agency.
I will try to refrain from rehashing my thoughts on comp picks (I can’t), as I have posted quite a bit to that affect recently and don’t want to clog up the board with reiterations.
I will just say this again, in case it was missed. 3 of 4 Rams starting secondary came from comp picks and so did Puka Nacua. They have also netted 4 comp picks in almost every draft for the last 4 years.
It isn’t Voodoo or blind luck. It is a concentrated effort and we can easily replicate it. We have almost 20 FA this year. We can sign guys cheap, keep track of the overall tab and still walk away with 4 comp picks.
I’m not trying to argue with anyone, but when JS shows patience (as Rob talks to in the article) and our media cries out – “All the best FA’s are signing! What is John waiting for?”… Remember this POSSIBILITY. That JS might see that there are free picks to be had for waiting on a ILB who has a PFF grade of 75 vs spending up on one with a PFF of 77 weeks earlier.
Right but the Rams don’t have good players because they’re comp picks, they drafted good players because they’re a good drafting team.
Build up a solid team first and then when you’re contending you can start worrying about things like comp picks to keep a talent flow coming in
They got 4 comp picks the year after they won the SB and they got 4 comp picks the year they went 5-12.
You don’t need to be good or bad to take advantage of the system. Maybe they’re better at drafting, but that doesn’t mean we’re better off w/o having more picks.
“Worrying about things like comp picks” is exactly what I think we should be doing. Though I would phrase it as “Try to take every advantage possible while building your team to contend for the SB”
I say this delicately, but I do see a contradiction when others say, “you first and foremost build through the draft”, followed by “comp picks don’t matter”.
They certainly shouldn’t be the highest priority, but certainly part of a healthy strategy. Most often, not always, they do go to teams that were stacked the year before, and that isn’t the Hawks.
Nobody has said comp picks don’t matter
Obsessing over them is the thing I am pushing back against, or the idea that it’s even remotely possibly to ‘prioritise’ them
I just do not understand why SF and LA are so good at it, and can do it every year so easily, and Seattle can not for it’s life even get one single pick?!?!?!?!?!
Clearly there’s a formula that our 2 biggest rivals have mastered. It compounded with our inability to get any comp picks what so ever, it’s a massive fatal obstacle that Seattle can not overcome. Their 2 biggest rivals are doubling them in draft classes. That means they get more bites at the apple. And then they get players like the Rams got last year and massively leap frog Seattle. Meanwhile SF stays a juggernaut forever thanks to it.
We can’t easily replicate it
We really can. It seems you just feel the consequences are not worth it.
If LW, Noah Fant, Jordyn Brooks, Damien Lewis, Drew Lock, Colby Parkinson, Bobby Wagner, Darrell Taylor, Michael Jackson & Evan Brown sign with other teams in March that is 10 qualifying players.
We could sign Lance Kendricks (LB), Lawrence Guy (DT), Eddie Jackson (S) & Hayden Hurst (TE) who were all cuts, plus bring back Dissly on a cheaper deal. Then you can still sign another 6 players without cancelling your 4 picks.
Say you get LW and DT/Wags don’t sign early, you can still sign 3 guys in March if you want.
It may not be how many think we should approach FA, but it is not hard to do this year.
“Mel Kiper deems J.J. McCarthy could ‘overtake’ Drake Maye in NFL Draft”
This draft will stay spicy long after it is over. The comparisons between every QB prospect before the draft and the after draft handwringing will fill articles and radio broadcasts for months to come (perhaps years).
Feels like the Aaron Rodgers NFL draft all over again.
A quality QB will fall, landing in a team’s lap…. mid to late 1st round.
Seahawks are in this zone…. Coincidence?
Unlike the Aaron Rodgers draft, there are the Broncos and Raiders desperate for a QB, and perhaps the Vikings as well if they can’t re-sign Kirk Cousins. Drake Maye won’t fall too far.
Rodgers was selected at 24 and was the 2nd QB taken. Without looking it up, I find it hard to believe there weren’t at least a half dozen other teams in 2005 that also needed a franchise QB.
I recently watched a show on NFL network about that draft. It turned out all the teams between the first and 24th pick had a starter in place (obviously not all are quality starters). Not helping Rodgers was the fact that previous QBs coached by Jeff Tedford had been draft busts.
Agree with most of what you said Rob especially us going for lesser name free agents at better prices – which we kind of have to this go around do due to having so many holes to fill on the roster.
I do believe there are some good players to be had in free agency most years but you will usually have to overpay for them and to me free agency is kind of like the draft – all throughout its a bit of a crapshoot so just lots of risk involved.
I do fear we will overpay for Williams. You have to think John wants to avoid the blowback that would come with not resigning him after coughing up a 2nd and 5th and it is an area of need. Looks kind of like a smaller scale Adams situation (no prior contract extension tied to big resources given up in trade) where John is compelled to resign him giving Williams(agent) massive leverage.
I don’t see either as a crapshoot. You can scout and analyse to make educated decisions. It’s not a random gamble
Looking at Rob’s board, it is obvious that this draft is deep at OL and WR. Not so much for edge rushers, DE, TE, and QB. My logic says that because we could find a starting level OL or WR in later rounds, the first pick should focus on positions that will not have good later round value. Edge rusher, linebacker, TE, and QB should be the early focus whether we trade down or stick and pick. Penix, Verse, Chop, or Bowers, would justify not trading back, although I favor the trading back option.
Okay, I’ve thought about this too.
But… here me out… what if they planned to pick a stud OLineman with #16 (or short trade back)… with then intention of grabbing someone else they highly value way later in the draft??
This idea had me thinking that it might be a solid strategy to build a Great OLine. Sometimes you need to lean in to the strengths of the draft.
Besides Lockett, the Seahawks are also keeping Dee Eskridge around (with a pay cut).
Love it, Rob. This is where I’m at, too. I see getting right with the cap, even ahead of it, as the highest priority. JS used to practice the mantra, “pay as you go”. Each of the past five years or so they’ve stepped over that line more and more.
I also think he’s done a great job not going full slash mode. He cut deep, but kept Lockett at a small pay cut and kept Geno to fend off having to make a desperate move in FA or the draft. And keeping Lockett means they can wait a year to draft a WR, or to see what Grubb can do with JSN, Bobo and the others behind DK.
I’m a Feng Shui clutter-clearer so I tend to error on the full slash mode. I appreciate that JS takes a more tempered approach.
I am more of a Marie Condo type: “If it doesn’t give you joy, get rid of it.”. This roster hasn’t given me joy.
That was the old Marie Kondo. Once she had a baby she suddenly decided it was fine to have junk all over the house.
The amount of times I reference “spark joy” is very high. Such a great saying applicable across so many different domains
I am ready to throw all of the babies out with the bath water! Because the bath water is toxic, and the babies are sub-optimal.
Rob,
As always, thanks for the great writeup and video. Couldn’t agree more with your philosophy.
To zag, what are your thoughts on a potential Robert Hunt (former blog favorite) signing?
Would likely cost around 10 mill, but if we trade back from 16 for a QB or EDGE, it could make sense to allocate cap funds to a quality IOL players like Hunt.
Based on Dotson’s 16m a year deal, I would expect Hunt to be in that range. Thus, I’m out
I luv this off season
New staff
JS with greater influence
What do we look like, who are starters
&
Robs writing
I assume Chris Jones’s deal doesn’t really affect much that the Seahawks are doing, but I’m curious if you think it’s a reasonable deal.
Thanks for the consistent content; you’ve been killing this offseason and I hope you’re still getting occasional sleep.
I think for the Chiefs they just had to keep him
They have a window to do something no team has done before and Mahomes & Jones are the keys to it happening
Agreed. They HAD to keep him. Without him, the defense is probably slightly better than average. He’s exactly what you unload the truck for: elite, blue-chip, game-wrecker. He made one play in the Super Bowl that was either win-or-lose.
And they are going to lose Sneed this offseason. With them both gone…there wouldn’t even the the rumor of a 3-peat.
Technically that’s correct. Indeed no team has ever won 3 Super Bowls in a row. However……….the Packers won the NFL championship in ’65 the year before the first Super Bowl and then won the first 2 Super Bowls so did win 3 NFL championships in a row, something no other team has ever done, NFL or AFL. They also won 5 championships in 7 years, again something no other team ever accomplished. It’s called the Lombardi trophy for a reason.
And it all fell apart because Lombardi put himself and ownership over the team. He refused to pay his stud running back, and actively engaged in dirty pool to keep his salary down. When he finally got free, said RB went home to New Orleans and got paid. Lombardi never won another SB.
Reminds me of a certain Seahawks Coach or two.
Both Holmgren and Carrol got cute with fine players value (Daniels, Sam Adams for Holmgren, where he lost them over peanuts) and began micromanaging while simultaneously failing to innovate and doubling and tripling down on outdated methods.
(Carrol overpaid to prop up bad trades, and wasted 2nd round picks on rental players too).
Would love a Jeremy Chinn reclamation project. Absolutely loved him coming out the draft and he looked like an awesome player to start his career. Gotta think MM is the perfect coach to make use of such a versatile athlete.
Here, Here. Exactly the sort of Free Agent the Seahawks need to target.
Looking at the QBs drafted over the last 20 years. If they were selected in the top 45 picks, there is roughly a 50% chance they become a routine starter that can lead their team to a winning record…the vast majority that worked out were in the top half of the first round.
QBs selected after the 45th pick that became longer term starters, there are only 6 that I can find in the last 20 years: Brock Purdy (7th), Jalen Hurts (late 2nd), Dak Presccott (4th), Jimmy Garoppolo (late 2nd), Kirk Cousins (4th), Russell Wilson (3rd)…a 4% success rate
– If Seattle has a QB they like, they are either trading up for them or staying at 16…they will not trade down for a starting QB…no matter how much they want more draft picks
– If Rattler truly goes after the 45th pick (which everyone is estimating), there is only a 4% chance he becomes a consistent starter in the leaque…do not think JS is building his plan around Ratter or anyone else with a late pick grade, so do not expect a “trade up” into the late 2nd round either for a QB
You can’t judge players in this draft though based on others and averages that have nothing to do with Spencer Rattler and his skill set
Otherwise you’d never take a non early QB and you’d miss out on the diamonds that are clearly out there
Agree…I am not saying do not take a QB in the later rounds…Just saying that you should not build your game plan expecting a later pick to be the QB of the future. If Seattle wants to good chance of upgrading from Geno, they will likely need to use their first round pick without trading down or the player they want will be gone
I keep looking at Schneider’s past behavior when looking for clues regarding what he may do this year. This has been discussed before, but to me it needs to be emphasized. In 2012, when the Seahawks and Schneider were looking for a QBOTF, they signed free agent Matt Flynn (who was Aaron Rodgers backup at GB). And, they selected Russell Wilson in the draft.
I expect that Schneider will be aggressive this time too. This could mean trading up to get his guy, or it could mean signing a free agent QB (Tyler Huntley, formerly backup to Lamar at Baltimore ?) and also drafting a QB at #16 or later (Rattler? Penix?). It could also mean re-signing Drew Lock, but I like Huntley’s dual-threat skills more that I like Lock.
Only time will tell — I just don’t want another year to pass without addressing the need for a future QB.
Statistics when it comes to draft success are interesting…but that is about it.
Some teams are better at identifying talent.
Some teams are better at developing players.
This sort of analysis 50% hit rate, or whatever, is not really useful in identifying what position should be identified when.
Disagree slightly. I like Rattler. As a shot at something. There’s just not that many late round qbs who have hoisted the Lombardi for whatever reason.
Most likely they are never given a shot. But this is just what it is in that regard.
I 100% would take Rattler in the 3rd and think he had the grit to become a successful NFL QB.
If I compare him to Penix, Penix is better. If I comp him to Williams or Daniels….
I don’t consider slot to be particularly relevant.
To the greater point. It is harder to build around Penix in the 2nd or Purdy in the 7th, then it is to target your QB in the first.
Comparing Penix and Rattler is tough to do. Penix played behind a really good OL while Rattler wasn’t so fortunate at South Carolina. If Penix is our pick, we need to significantly upgrade our OL or else I fear that he will have a short career.
Thanks for this. I’m fairly sick of fans who say “find a gem in the later rounds.”
You’ve got Montana and You’ve got Brady. If I’m missing someone in the last fifty years with multiple rings and they weren’t picked in the first round let me know.
Then Prescott and Cousins can both do a job but have made buckets of cash to do nothing.
Will disagree slightly about trading down and a comment that Blitzy made above.
Time of typing going through a ton of national mocks it feels that Penix could be had without picking at #16. Still a first rounder but generally ( always,) later.
The mccarthy bump is the best thing to happen to hawks fans who are dreaming about Penix.
Thank you Peter. Regarding Penix, if they think he is a true upgrade at QB they will take him at 16. Cannot think of a time that a team intentionally traded down for the QBOTF…to risky
I agree. Just speculating that he’s often penciled in around 25 ish.
Me? I kind of hate this idea that player x is good enough to be on your team but….only if you get them a hair later.
Take penix. If he’s the answer then an extra third rounder won’t matter in any meaningful way. People should review how slim tge KC drafts were due to the mahomes trade up. Did not matter at all for them.
Clearly, the answer is to trade into the 44th pick and then select Rattler.
Apparently the odds of him being a consistent starter would then go up drastically.
haha..it would be awesome to be able to work the system like that. Unfortunely, the success rate of top QB pics would be even higher if teams did not ‘over reach’ becaue they are desperate (see: Steeler’s Kenny Pickett who should have been a 3rd rounder).
The reality is that pro scouts are REALLY good at…scouting. If no team jumps on Rattler in the 2nd round…it is highly likely (96%) that he is a high end back-up QB, not QBOTF. I personally like Rattler as a prospect, but if I have JS looking to upgrade at QB, using the 1st round pick is the only realistic game plan
Or…he gets overlooked. You’re focusing on WHEN someone is drafted. That isn’t the be all, end all.
Russ, Crosby, guys all over get under drafted.
Seattle has had Zorn, Kreig, Kitna, RW. All post 45th and starters. Also Friesz and Kemp. (Shorter termers) We are the home of misfit QBs
Reading through these comments (and some elsewhere) I’m reminded that fans tend to prioritize the offseason based upon their own biases, and impose these values on what their team should do. I’ve identified at least three separate strains:
The Chicken: this fan treats draft picks like a chicken with eggs, like gold. The goal is to obtain as many picks as possible and sit on them. Hoping some of them hatch. They inevitably will refer to the draft as a ‘crapshoot’.
The sentimentalist: they want their team to be like an episode of Cheers, where everyone knows your name. They love talking about ‘our guys’ and want to bring players home. They secretly still believe that player X from their glory days has one more moment of greatness in them, Largent is the piece we need.
The Swiper: this fan is ready to roll and wants a championship now. Non-zero chance they used to roll with a bumper sticker that read ‘earth first, we’ll log other planets later’. They will trade all the picks for player X, they will destroy the cap hit and push it out to future generations. Believed any rookie that isn’t a success in year one is a bust.
There are some off-shoots, and I’m sure other people have their own. I’m still working on exactly what type of fan wanted to sign Jones, Mads, Queen and McKinney. They seem like their own breed
I raise this not to criticize others, but as a reminder to check in with yourself. I happen to be a sentimentalist. I promise you that Beast Mode could ride one more time. And if you doubt it, you probably hate freedom, apple pie, puppies and rainbows
You can spot these archetypes and it helps to understand where they are coming from – and you can see if they have lost touch with rationality. If they were offered CJ stroud today for 3 first rounders would they do a deal? A chicken would not. Would a sentimentalist trade Geno for 3 round ones? Never – he just needs his oline fixed. Are they griping about not wooing Chris Jones?
Who is the fan that thinks coaching was a big driver of mediocrity but has some concerns that by building the team outside in for far too long thinks there’s just a chance that the team is not quote/unquote as talented on paper as they’ve been told?
Well, not the Sentimentalist for sure.
I think either of the other two could arrive at that conclusion.
Just as a chicken and a sentimentalist like both hate the Adams trade.
Their values define them. The Swiper loathes mediocrity, but cannot bother themselves with roster construction, trade for Bosa or Creed and call it a day.
Speaking for myself, the Rams game in Week 1 was almost unforgivable for Carroll, had I been the owner fans would have hated me, cause I likely would have sent him and each team captain packing. I’d gladly cheer for an 0-17 team that competed every play like their lives depended on it, than some 10-7 humdrum with a bunch of players giving 60%. They offended my values – which I am mindful of and tried to keep in check.
As far as the roster, I felt for years that they were making intentional choices based on a system to ignore certain positions in favor of other ones. Early returns suggest to me that is changing by necessity, Grubb’s offense and Mac’s defense have particular needs.
100% agree with your opinion about is game one of last year
That was the end for me even though I saw it coming several years earlier
What would you call a fan who labels other fans?
Kaiju
I had to look that up 😂
Love it Lou. What category would you place fans like me that would be content to really suck for one year if it vaulted the Seahawks into superbowl contention the next year?
I was thinking along the lines of someone who farts in an elevator as they are walking out the door!
ROTFL 🤣
See? There are others out there, I’m trying to categorize them.
This fan is both a chicken and a swiper – but really neither.
This to me is maybe a gambler profile, I’d have to think on it.
Are the Boboists actually Sentimentalists, or a new species?
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/patriots-finalizing-trade-of-mac-jones-to-jaguars-for-sixth-round-pick
So much for the rumored Daniels slide…
I have a very hard time with the idea that Washington passes on Daniels. Never bought into that.
It’s right up there with Stroud falling because of his S2 scores. Teams already have their boards mostly set this close to the draft and stupid media narratives, in either direction, ain’t gonna change that. Maye, for example, could be one in the other direction where he “slides” cos the media has just slotted him in all year as a top 5 pick. I also very much doubt the McCarthy rising up boards talk.
Great article Rob – love the way you are thinking thru the lens of how Baltimore and Gbay build a roster. Those 2 team philosophies have their DNA in the roots of JS and MM and they have been extremely successful. If they follow this strategy, The Hawks build a roster the right way and compete. The only caveat is the QB position. I think they are sitting in no-mans land at #16. Too low, and too many QB needy teams ahead of them. Should be an interesting couple of months. Thanks Rob, for the almost daily content.
Agree about “no man’s land” pick 16.
There are only 2 routes to THQBOF in my mind. Either trade up BIGLY, or sign nobody so you can get comp picks, and suck hard for top picks next season.
Anything less I fear will just lead to more mediocre 8 and 9 win Pete seasons.
In order to get comp picks, you not only need to not sign players in the first couple waves of FA, but you also have to have your own FA’s sign decent contracts with other teams. The only FA’s we have that would most likely result in comp picks are LW, Brooks, and maybe Fant. If we let them all walk you might add a 3rd , 5th, and 7th based on the market for those three players. Best case for the 3rd rd comp pick for LW would result in pick #97. Pick #97 in 2023 was Ricky Stromberg, who played 28 snaps all season. We need to find value in Free Agency and fill out the roster, not worry about getting gifted the opportunity to draft the next Ricky Stromberg.
LA drafted Puka Nucaua with a comp pick.
I am very much looking forward to Rob’s next mock draft.
How about throwing a draft pick for a $12.7m bridge QB in 2024, $14.8m in 2025?
Give that #3 overall young pup a full year to learn and the 2nd year you have tons of options.
Makes sense to me.
If only NE had hired Pete Carroll.
The reaction on any Seahawks fan site would be legendary.
You got that all wrong cha. That bridge QB is actually a franchise QB, and they can have him for a mere 12.7m, all they need do is fork over their #3 overall and next years first. Even then it’s a steal to get the next GOAT.
And he can play for another 10 years remember
Lots of tread left on those tires since sat on the bench for so many years!
With the news that Fletcher Cox retiring, just remember him when thinking about trading down from 16.
Seahawks could have had him instead of Irvin. Not that Bruce had a bad career or wasn’t a good pick, but we should all agree sticking and picking was the smart move.
But how else could we have acquired Jaye Howard and Jeremy Lane?
To be fair, Lane was a decent CB before his body exploded on that interception return
I liked Lane but how many of him would you need to equal one Fletcher Cox?
And you are 100% certain that we wouldn’t have just taken Irvin instead of Cox, anyway?
Am I correct in thinking that, after the cuts, plus Lockett & Eskridge restructures, our cap space is top-10 in the league?
It is but we also have the fewest number of contracted players in the entire league
🫠
Adding back the low cost RFAs I think they are in good shape with snaps that need to be replaced though at non-premium positions save for LW. I’m less concerned with rostered player count than I am premium starters needing to be replaced.
It’s churn time again, something this team has long needed to do.
I wanted both Lockett and Eskridge out do as to help cleanse the locker room of Pete players. But I realise that some feel Lockett’s restructure is good value. I disagree. But I can hear the case. Eskridge on the other hand?!! Why in heavens is he still on the roster collecting game checks?!! He has been one of the biggest Pete era busts of all time! Between injuries and getting arrested, what is the point of him at all??? He should’ve been shown the door with Adams and friends. Unacceptable.
I am curious to see how Ryan Grubb plan to use Dee in his scheme.
Not sure how anyone can scheme to use a player who flat isn’t good at football.
Eskridge can’t run routes, catch, block, or take a handoff without fumbling, or break a tackle.
What do you do with that?!
He’s a backend player, you still need guys on the team for camp and the roster. He’s going to cost roughly 1m in money. If you think Grubb can utilize him that’s not unreasonable. Also that money was on the cap because he’s still on the rookie contract. Given that dallas is likely gone and you need a returner it makes sense, that’s to say he even makes the roster. Might as well see if he can contribute anything in camp. You can’t cut everyone.
Seems I can’t go a day without another article out there pumping Patrick Queen to the Hawks. Such a lazy take. “Seattle needs LB help, Queen is a FA, McDonald coached Queen. Easy!”
Spotrac has his market value at 92.6M/5 yrs roughly 18.5M per year. God, what a disappointment that would be.
If they sign Queen to a deal like that I will have my head in my hands
Bellore cut
Interesting that John said he’d hoped to be done with cuts. Maybe tried to restructure and they couldn’t come to terms.
Another common sense move. Giving Bellore that contract was atricious.
https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1766892284308549992
I agree that the Seahawks should not get locked in to any expensive long term free agent contracts. IMO they should only do that for a Franchise QB or if you just need one or two more pieces to compete for a Superbowl. This roster has a lot of holes that need to be filled in the draft and using reasonable contracts.
Bellore gone. Fantastic move! Way too old and way too overpaid for what he gives you. Also one less gritty “good guy” Pete type on the team. Keep the cleanse going!
Interestingly enough, many of the ideas discussed on the blog to get Seattle into a healthy place in cap utilization and/or personnel, have come to pass. The Bellore cut being the most recent example.
The GM is creating a clear path forward, starting fresh with the new HC. It is truly fortunate that we have adults running the Seahawks, unlike the Broncos, Bears, Jets or Raiders. Bright sunny days for the franchise are coming, sooner than later.
I have to say I too am really appreciating the way they are instituting the new regime, especially with the roster turnover/cap clearing – tells me they see the roster for what it was and they aren’t messing around with trying to improve things asap.
Things are indeed looking up in Hawks land. Let’s see some more good drafts and a healthier cap in the next few years along with the new coaches and their vision for it all and we could be looking at a much better team with a bit of time!
It ain’t happening without a good QB on the team.
Long-time reader, first post…great articles here. Re the comp picks, like many other odd-doings with the team these past few years, seems something that could be attributable to Carroll. Just has that feel. Could change in a year or two. Read an article re Panthers having received little interest in Brian Burns due to his contract coming up. Could Seattle get in the same bind with DK next year? Was thinking maybe trade him at the trade deadline to a contender. Get value that way. Then have two 1st rd picks to package for a QB next year.
Good post.
It’s called market value for a reason. In retrospect a team is just as likely to have overpaid for an FA as they have underpaid. On “average” paying market value for an FA is going to create an average NFL roster. To be a great team some parts of roster construction must be done well above average, whether that be drafting, “winning” trades, or consistently under-paying free agents. A concept I don’t think most fans will ever understand is that when simply signing a fantastic player to a huge contract it is roughly as likely to hurt their team as it is to help it if it was a “fair” market deal. It is also likely to pull them toward the middle of the pack of teams.
Of course, teams have a lot of $ available and therefore must sign FAs to fill out a roster, but just like searching for great value draft picks they should also search for great VALUE FAs. Those will rarely be the most expensive ones.
“1. Trade multiple R1 picks for Jayden Daniels
2. Trade a couple of R1 picks for JJ McCarthy
3. Stick and pick Penix or Maye
4. Trade down for Rattler or Nix
5. Something else entirely”
A couple of points. In my opinion is Penix really going to be on the board at 16? He might have the best arm in this draft. He also might have the best deep throw in this draft.
Number two. I think it is going to take more than two additional first round picks for Daniels. The Commanders need a QB. I for one don’t see them trading down to 16 when they have the ability to take Daniels. I don’t see that happening.
When it comes to J.J. McCarthy, Rob and Brock Huard are on opposite sides. Huard has a man crush on McCarthy. Rob has given McCarthy a 2nd round grade. I am pretty sure that McCarthy is going to go in the top ten. As far Penix is concerned. Yes Penix did have an eight game stretch where his completion percentage dropped dramatically. But I still think there is a good chance that Penix will be off the board at 16.
I don’t know what the answer is. But the Hawks need to nail down the QB of the future in this draft. My gut feeling is that between Nix, Penix, Maye and McCarthy it is going to work out. At least while Grubb and Scott Huff are on the coaching staff. With Ryan Grubb and Scott Huff on the coaching staff the Seahawks are going back to the early Russell Wilson days. They will emphasize the run. Grubb is a fantastic play caller. Just think about the fact that Nick Saben tried to steal Grubb away from the Washington Huskies. That tells you all you need to know about Grubb. Under Scott Huff the Washington Huskies had the number one offensive line in the country. Everyone is talking about Grubb. And deservedly so. But let’s throw a few accolades in the direction of Scott Huff. He definitely was a major part of the success that the Huskies enjoyed on offense last season.
I don’t know what is going to happen in the draft. But some how I get the feeling that Schneider is going to show his hand at the right time. Sense Pete Carroll has been fired John Schneider has made many decisions. And I cannot think of one decision so far that I am upset about. John Schneider knows when to hold them and when to fold them. He also knows when to play his cards.
There is a reason that Pete Carroll was let go. And John Schneider continues to be the Seahawk GM.
I just hope Schneider was joking in his press conference last week when he was quoted by Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times as saying that just because Adams, Dissly, and Diggs were cut doesn’t mean that they might be resigned at a later date …… Ouch/Yikes.
I very much hope that was THICK sarcasm….. 😠
Yes, I threw up in my mouth a little bit when I read that.
Personally, I wouldn’t want Diggs or Adams back if they PAID Seattle to be on the team. Dissly is a great guy, but he’s zero threat down field: he’s a player only for short yardage and Red Zone situations.
Diggs still has the ability to be an excellent player, but he’s too full of Hubris: he needs a solid year where nobody wants his services before there’s any chance he pulls his head out of his ass.
In fairness, Rob gave McCarthy a 2rd grade but expects him to go in the top-5 picks.
One other point. As far as Leonard Williams is concern. Don’t want to get into a bidding war over Williams. Yes, the Hawks did pay a high price for Williams. But don’t compound the mistake/problem by over paying for Williams. In 2023 Johnathan Hankins was paid a paltry (by NFL standards) $1,325,000. That is shocking. That has to be the Steal of the century.
Fully agree – I get the feeling we are going in that direction…
If you ask me who I’d want between Williams and a 3rd or 4th round comp pick, it’s a no brain to me!! Comp pick all the day! Why? Because you already bungled and flubbed and threw your 2nd rounder away in a draft with a huge cliff after rounds 2 and 3. But if you can let some other foolish team overpay him, netting a 3rd or 4th will now make the calculus that you traded 2 rounds of position for a half season of Williams. This is not the worst case scenario by any means. Now if you overpay him, or worse let him walk by sign a bunch of Cedric Obungewe and Nick Belloree players to cancel out a compick, it will be that Grandad Pete and Josh Schneider lit a very valuable 2nd round pick on fire and blew their fingers off.
But the Hawks have so many spots to fill, it might be a moot point whether Leo re-signs or not.
Very low chance we sniff at a comp pick this year- too many open roster spots to fill.
Why do you want a fourth round pick? Seattle hasn’t made that much hay with later picks. Around 6% of all of them have been worth anything.
Ian is obsessed with comp picks and it’s getting a bit tiring
the whole shtick is getting tiring….
You have become a one-note tune.
I wouldn’t hate this. Nice haul after trading back twice in the first.
27. Troy Fautanu – OG Washington
51. Michael Penix Jr. – QB Washington
78. Edgerrin Cooper – LB Texas A&M
90. T.J. Tampa – CB Iowa State
93. Zach Frazier – IOL West Virginia
117. Sedrick Van Pran – IOL Georgia
129. Cade Stover – TE Ohio State
151. Jordan Jefferson – DT LSU
191. Luke McCaffrey – WR Rice
235. Dominique Hampton – S Washington
Probably no chance Fautanu is there at #27, but if it worked out that way, I’d be ecstatic.
Looks too good to be true! That is eerily similar to my favorite attempts.
I like the players but I feel like pretty much all of them on your mock are going to go much higher. McCaffrey going in the 6th round?
Yeah – it’s not very realistic. And that’s even with me passing up several players along the way like Braden Fiske, Ben Sinnott, Xavier Legette, Ricky Pearsall going ‘no way he’ll be there at this point.” Felt the same with McCaffery and Hampton but couldn’t resist.
This was the sportskeeda mock by the way. Hopefully they’ll update their rankings soon so we can get a better feel for where the value might be.
Can someone with a Twitter account verify that Jeremy Fowler has linked Clowney, Queen and Stone all as rumored to ‘follow Mike Macdonald to Seattle’?
A buddy sent this but I don’t have an account, nor do I know how to sleuth out if this is legit.
https://twitter.com/NFL_DF/status/1766864511154172126
That tweet is about the crux of the report.
It could be real, but I think it is a very easy crutch to drum up some competition for those guys and get other teams thinking they need to sign them.
As I’ve said before, Macdonald’s strength is taking spare-parts and picks that haven’t lived up to their potential and making a good defense. Finally getting rid of the millstone-around-the-neck safety and linebacker contracts, it would be incredibly foolish to dive right back in.
I suspect Stone being the most likely target, since he will not be a break the bank type of player.
His market is somewhere around 7M a year, it seems. I think we can do better for less at safety, but I wouldn’t hate it.
You have to figure McDonald knows the real value of those players better than anyone, so if he wants to bring them in and John can live with the numbers, I’m in.
Fingers crossed we highly pay a LB with one standout year and no Roquan smith.
I hope this is just convenient “rumors.” Signing all these guys goes against Rob’s plan, which I feel is the right way to attack FA. Seattle needs to sign players who are underappreciated or who haven’t hit yet. Not try to chase the players who Baltimore was able to do that with, only have to pay them more.
Big contract for Baker. NE still needs a QB
It’s not a horrible contract. But getting your hands on a rookie contract is much much better.
This legitimizes the Geno contract.
Might give teams a second look if they want to see if they can get him from Seattle. Hawks have paid all the guaranteed money except his salary this year.
Agreed. It’s the same deal without the incentive structure. One can debate the worth of each QB relative to their deal, but I think JS looks even sharper for having signed Geno last season and for tidying up his salary to make him tradable if that’s in the plans.
Sounds like there’s another $15m in incentives that could bring it to $115m.
It’s $10m more guaranteed than Geno’s AND the second yr salary is fully guaranteed.
Given Baker is 5 years younger and has won 2 playoff games, I expected a bit more.
Sorry to disagree Cha… but Baker is a better (and younger) QB than Geno and he was available last year (just like Geno) for $20+ million less.
We paid Geno for his 2022 season… over-paid. We paid him because of his story. Probably with little to no competition by others teams who wanted to sign him. It was the exact opposite of a cut-throat decision.
And Tampa paid Baker $4m and told him he’d have to fight for the job last offseason.
That is a good deal for Baker. 50M guaranteed. 3years 100M. Baker had better jump on that deal. Don’t think anyone else is going to offer him that kind of money.
I think it is also a good deal for the Bucs especially after they just resigned Mike Evans.
😆 bucs, have fun being mediocore for awhile
Not so sure about that mate.
Dunno, they were fairly average last season and don’t see contending in their future
Not difficult to imagine Baker turning back into a pumpkin the way Geno did.
https://twitter.com/curtis93969/status/1767211512232382688
I think Geno’s salary is in the 7.5mil range(correct me if I am). So yes that would be a good deal if a team was looking for a one year bridge QB.
That should be (correct me if am wrong).
Hopefully someday we will be able to edit out posts.
Former Jaguars safety Rayshawn Jenkins coming in for a visit per Schultz
This is exactly the player that I want the Hawks to stay away from. He’s 30 and looking for a 3rd contract. He wasn’t good last year and there is very little upside.
If it’s a cheap deal, his leadership could be an asset
Sure.
He’ll have to be super super cheap.
Wouldn’t super cheap deals not come early in FA? I know these “reports” are often drummed up by agents. So maybe this wouldn’t be a right away signing, but one they could get on a deal later.
Super cheap deals for cut players are already being agreed
T minus 12 hours til LW walks…gotta wonder how intense the deal talks are right now between JS and williamns.
If no deal tonight, you have to think he walks and we wasted a 2nd round pick on 10 games, fuck me that’s depressing.
Add it to the wasted rental of Sheldon Richardson as well. (If no resign)
Richardson just wasn’t much of a difference maker in our D. And he left and underachieved everywhere he went. Shouldn’t have traded for him, but paying him big money would have been worse.
Pick is already wasted. Sign him … it’s gone. Don’t sign him … it’s gone.
It’s already gone.
The only value it might provide at this point is if LWs experience here is converted into a below market value contract. Even if he had the time of his life and was willing to sign below market value, I doubt the difference would come near to the lost value of that pick. And I wouldn’t assume for a second he’d be willing to play here for significantly less money than other destinations anyway. Hope to be wrong.
Fireable. Hopefully it was all Pete.
Hmm… that Mac Jones trade to the Jaguars makes me wonder if Trevor Lawrence will be available next year.
They’d never say they’re going to have a QB competition, but I think they’ll give Jones a little more of a look than they’re letting on.
Not sure about that
They needed a backup and they’ve got a cheap backup
Albert Breer is saying that the Chargers are having trade talks on both Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.
Smart move if they can get anything for either.
Packers also released De’Vondre Campbell. He had one good season with the Packers. The new Seahawks LB coach should be familiar with him.
Free agency is important and teams can be winners and losers, not because they spend the most on one or two big name players, but because they get the best value between ability and money spent across the positions of need in the team. It’s particularly important to Seattle this year, as they have the fewest number of players under contract in the NFL. This is clearly an opportunity that Schneider and Macdonald have created for themselves with the creation of cap space, to route out the Avril and Clemons types, to improve the roster. They won’t hit on every position, but because we believe the team has good coaches, it maybe that many of the players they get in, will play better with them than they did with their previous teams, for many reasons.
I’m hoping we’ll see many lower salaired younger players, with upside, who might not yet of been in the best situation for them, rather than older vets who might have had good years but are on the far side of the bell curve.
The players who get the bigger contracts, should be those who’ve already been players with the team, as the staff who cross over (John Schneider) will know them and what their cap value is. It’s why the likes of Leo Williams and Jordyn Brooks, will offer better value to the team on slightly larger contracts than equivalent players from elsewhere, where the fit is less well known. If someone else offers more than their value, however, they’ll have to be let go. That’s the hard part.
The final free agent is one who is prepared to play near a vet minimum, who has played to a high level, but might be coming back from injury or a bad situation. The Clowney type player. Marcus Davenport perhaps. These players are considered very much as part of a rotation, as they are the riskiest group to assess.
The Seahawk now have plenty of cap space. They have released Diggs, Adams, Dissly, Mone, and Bellore, they have also restructured Tyler Lockett’s contract and handed Eskridge a pay cut. They now have over 50mil to (play with) spend. If they can hold off until after the first wave they should be able to pick up some team friendly deals.
The way I look at it. If Williams walks then fine. The Seahawks are not the only team that have made deals similar to the Williams trade. I like Williams. Very good player. Good person. Team player. Also because of the trade he played in 18 regular season games last year. But now that you have all this cap money play it smart. Try to sign him at a fair deal for both the team and the player. However, like I said earlier, don’t want to get into a bidding war over Williams. Same with Brooks. Good player. Good guy. Just don’t want to over pay for his services.
As far as free agency is concerned. Most team will over pay in free agency. Some more than others. However, the smart organizations usually don’t do it very often.
Free agency is a band-aid. Not a cure.
Who would be better if we could get them for the same price?
Leonard Williams or Christian Wilkins?
I’d be okay getting Wilkins to anchor the interior of our line if we can do it. Seems to be more explosive and is younger!
Go Hawks!
I think we all know that we don’t know squat about what MM wants. I’m hoping he and the staff is pouring over film on every team to see what free agents fit what they want to do on either side of the ball. Each of his coaches have insight on players they’ve seen in person, whether college or pro, as well.
The only common traits I’ve heard are active, hard-hitting, and quick. But aren’t the other 31 teams looking for the very same thing?