There are still issues in Seattle that can’t be ignored
Perceptions change quickly after a couple of wins and we’re seeing that with the Seahawks. In the last 48 hours I’ve seen more than one person suggesting it’s plausible for the Seahawks to go on a run in the post-season. Meaning, they achieve more than just making up the numbers in the playoffs.
I view this two ways. Firstly, sure. It’s possible. The NFC isn’t very good. The 49ers are still the class of the conference even if they took a shot to the jaw yesterday against the Ravens. San Francisco’s roster is well beyond anyone else’s in the NFC, they are well coached and regardless of the Baltimore game, it’s hard to imagine anyone in the NFC preventing them from facing the Ravens again in the Super Bowl.
The Eagles are massively flawed and don’t look very good at all. They appear quite similar to the Seahawks during their recent four-game losing streak. They have offensive power but the defense stinks, especially in the secondary. They’ve lost their way and their coordinators appear overmatched.
The Lions are very beatable and the Seahawks seem to have their number. Dallas have all the characteristics of a paper tiger and they’re exactly the kind of opponent a proper team loves to meet in a NFC Championship or divisional round game. You can get after them, rough them up and they rely on a handful of very good players to win.
The NFC South poses no serious threat to anyone. Then there’s the Rams — perhaps the one team capable of upsetting the 49ers. Even then, McVay’s record against Shanahan isn’t great (even if they won the most important matchup between the teams two seasons ago to reach the Super Bowl).
You can run through every possible playoff contest with the exception of the 49ers and make a case for the Seahawks winning a one-off game against anyone. Thus, a ‘run’ isn’t preposterous.
The context here, though, is twofold.
Firstly, none of these teams are going to be particularly concerned about playing the Seahawks either. It’s still more likely than not the Seahawks, either as the #6 or #7 seed, lose their first game against the Eagles, Lions or Cowboys and it’s season over.
After all, here are the three scores the Seahawks ‘managed’ against the Ravens and 49ers this season: 37-3, 31-13 and 28-16. That’s indicative of how far off they are from the league’s best. All three of those scorelines could’ve been worse, too.
Secondly, and most importantly, the fact that the NFC is extremely poor and littered with flawed teams shouldn’t validate or excuse the issues we’ve been discussing. Neither should it prevent us from having serious conversations about the future.
I’m going to keep making this point. You are either on the right path to contention or you’re not. I don’t look at this Seahawks team and feel like the 2023 season, led by Pete Carroll and these coordinators, is the latest step of a journey to Super Bowl contention. I think they are what their record this season and last shows. They are a 9-8, 8-9, 10-7, 7-10 type team. Each year they’ll have an opportunity to be in that bracket. They’ll be in the playoff discussion, mostly because of the ridiculous introduction of a seventh seed. Yet this is often a deceptive and frustrating place to exist. You’re never good enough to feel truly energised or hopeful but not bad enough to consider serious change. Often anyone brave enough to bring this up is accused of being ‘spoilt’ because, well, the Panthers are really bad or something.
A possible playoff run is more to do with a weak NFC than any strength of the Seahawks. I’m concerned that this is going to be a convenient distraction, forcing some pressing issues off the agenda.
Case in point — you can tolerate being flawed when the issues are of a certain nature. If Seattle’s main problem was an over-reliance on youth with accompanying growing pains, that’d be palatable. If your quarterback is a bit hit-and-miss when we can all see he is a bridge and not a long term solution, that’s easy to stomach provided they address the position in the near future.
There are issues in Seattle though that are far more unacceptable than this and they need to be discussed.
For example, the Seahawks spent the entire off-season discussing how unacceptable their run defense was last year. It was a major point of focus. Yet in the last five outings, they’ve given up at least 135 rushing yards per game. They’re ranked 27th in the NFL for rushing yards-per-game (129.6) and 27th for total yards (1944).
This isn’t the first time this staff led by this coach have been upfront about an issue that needs to be fixed and yet they’ve failed to do anything about it. It feels like the run from 2019-2021 where the pass rush was eternally talked about, never sufficiently addressed and it cost the team opportunities to be a serious threat.
Then there’s the overall defensive performance. The Seahawks are now ranked 24th per DVOA. They’ve regressed from 20th (2021), to 22nd (2022) to 24th in a three-year run. That’s despite the massive investment they’ve made in the unit, with top-five picks, free agent splurges, obscene contract extensions and expensive rental trades. They’ve pushed all their chips into the middle of the table for the defense and they’re getting worse.
Identity. Initially it was a staple of what enabled Carroll’s Seahawks to succeed. Now they say they want to be a running team but can’t run the ball. Combine that with the badly performing defense and the ‘complete circle’ Carroll has often cited as his main aim is more like three separate straight lines, all pointing in different directions.
They have the 29th most rushing yards this season and the 29th most rushing attempts, despite spending two second round picks on running backs. How has this happened? It is malpractice, frankly, to invest that much in the running back position and then run the ball the fourth fewest times among all teams.
This would all be tolerable if it was in order to promote a consistent, dynamic passing attack where D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are routinely fed the ball, exposing weekly matchup weaknesses in opponents. Alas, no. Lockett is 25th and Metcalf 27th for targets this season. Against the Eagles it took them until the final drive to realise Metcalf versus the struggling, ageing James Bradberry was a potential advantage. Until that final drive, Metcalf had one catch for eight yards. This isn’t how you use a receiver earning $24m a year.
It’s not unfair to suggest they’ve lost all sense of what they want to be on offense and/or don’t know how to make the most of their most dynamic (and expensive) weapons. Heck, Carroll even admitted on the radio a few weeks ago they were struggling to work out the best way to max-out certain players on offense because they had so many options. Meanwhile, the defense just isn’t very good despite unrivalled investment.
Do we forget all this now because the Seahawks managed to pull a couple of last-gasp wins out of the bag? Will further wins against two other average/bad teams further shift the narrative away from relevant concerns and onto a ‘run it back’ campaign?
There’s one other thing I want to mention. Watching the Ravens beat the 49ers yesterday, I was struck by how Baltimore asked questions defensively of San Francisco.
Admittedly they have a good defense. This isn’t Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis though. In fact I think they have a similar overall talent level to Seattle in terms of personnel. They’re just utilised better. They get every sinew out of someone like Jadeveon Clowney. They’ve turned Justin Madubuike into a force. Their big trade — a second rounder for Roquan Smith — looks like great value (and isn’t just a rental or a major overpay in terms of compensation). They’re built sensibly, they have a plan and they play fast and physical.
They’re a million miles away from the Seahawks and yet, I’d put that down to the way they are structured. It isn’t because they lucked out in the draft with Nick Bosa or Myles Garrett. It feels like a well-crafted, schemed and motivated group.
When they came up against Kyle Shanahan’s powerhouse offense — they had answers. They challenged the Niners.
When the Seahawks play the 49ers, they trot out the same old stuff, get beat in the same old way and then come back for more in the rematch. All five of San Francisco’s wins against Seattle in the last two seasons have felt the same, just with varying degrees of ‘suck’.
It’s no different against McVay. Over and over again, the Rams exploit the same weaknesses in the defense. Whether it’s familiarity, an inability to adapt or a combination of both — Shanahan and McVay have Carroll’s number. The results prove that. After 14 years, why is anything going to change in 2024 or 2025? It didn’t change this year.
I appreciate the Ravens aren’t a common opponent for San Francisco and thus, it might’ve been easier to plan some surprises. Yet it was fascinating to see Mike McDonald challenge the Niners. Throw a few punches. Force turnovers. Make life uncomfortable. Make the 49ers, it has to be said, want to go home and open presents from Santa Clause instead of continuing the Santa Clara beatdown on Christmas day.
If we’re going to have a defensive-minded Head Coach and snub the modern trend of offensive playcallers cooking up creative ways to feature star playmakers and score points, I want a defensive-focussed team that will do what Baltimore did yesterday. Their defensive DVOA ranking is #2. Seattle’s is #24. There’s the stark difference — and Seattle’s defense cost so much more.
If you’re going to lean defensively — tap into the Ravens mentality. The Ravens way, if you will. They’re doing what you’ve always wanted to do in a way you can only dream of currently. The Seahawks might want to be like this but they’re nowhere near — as their own beating in Baltimore showed.
Offensive coach, defensive coach. Just give me something different. Have a side of the ball you can hang your hat on. Be really good at something. Go into those Rams and Niners games next year with an air of intrigue and mystery, rather than resignation that the same old zones will be beaten by the same old plays, with the same old players producing the same old results.
If you’re going to go 1-3 or 0-4 against the two other good teams in your division, short of one of the teams suffering catastrophic injuries (as the Rams did last year) — forget about ever being taken seriously as a contender.
All of these things remain really important to highlight and discuss. They can’t be pushed to one side because the Seahawks ‘just’ beat a Tennessee team missing a bunch of starters with nothing to play for. The end result might’ve been OK in the end but that Titans game summed everything up. It took far too long for the offense to click against a depleted opponent missing its entire secondary and their best defensive lineman. Defensively, they were bullied in the running game despite that likely being the whole focus during the week (it wasn’t going to be Ryan Tannehill’s deep-ball, was it?).
A win against a collapsing Eagles and potential further wins against a Steelers team that is woeful offensively (although admittedly excellent on defense) and the 3-12 Cardinals shouldn’t mean all of these important issues are forgotten.
It might be inconvenient for some to discuss these things and I’m sure I’ll face the usual accusations of being spoilt, negative, suffering mental health issues or hating the Seahawks (pick your preferred insult). Yet at the moment, any talk of a ‘playoff run’ can only be placed alongside a serious conversation about the matters raised above. We can’t avoid this.
There are five other quick things I want to raise today…
— John Harbaugh was a special teams coach back in the day. It means during his long tenure as Ravens Head Coach, he has entrusted and empowered his offensive and defensive coordinators. That was talked about again yesterday during and after the 49ers demolition. I think Carroll can still succeed in Seattle but only if he was prepared to follow this path. ‘Carroll ball’ couldn’t be further from what we’re seeing at the moment. Why not just embrace a different way of doing things if he intends to carry on coaching in 2024? Go and get the best two coordinators money can buy and let them run the show tactically. Be the overseer. Appointing ‘his guys’ to execute ‘his vision’ hasn’t worked for years.
— I think the world of Carroll, as I’m sure the vast majority of Seahawks fans do. I don’t take any pleasure in discussing his future or hoping for change. I just think coaches generally have a shelf-life and Carroll has reached his in Seattle. Fourteen years is a very long time. I’ve had two kids in that period. I think the same about Bill Belichick in New England and Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh. I actually think it’d be great for everyone to know this playoff chase was to be a ‘last dance’ of sorts for Carroll, bringing everyone together to see the legendary coach off into the sunset, like the ending of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. Instead I fear he’s already gone on too long and will continue to go on, making more fans long for change and tarnishing the great memories he deserves to be remembered for. Those of us in England know what that’s like, having seen it happen to Arsene Wenger at Arsenal. It’d be crushing to see Carroll become an increasingly divisive topic in the future, simply because he continued until the bitter end. Why not go out with all the good will on offer and allow the franchise to begin a necessary new era, rather than working to a strict 2025 timeline when Carroll’s career presumably will come to an end?
— I’m fascinated by the fallout of the Chiefs loss to the Raiders because talk of accountability has been discussed. Patrick Mahomes mentioned recently he felt like they lost some of that when Eric Bieniemy, known as a bit of a headbanger, departed for Washington. Hearing the Chiefs talk so openly about this was a real ‘head in the hands’ moment when I remembered that Carroll, when asked who holds him accountable two years ago, answered ‘Nate Carroll (his son) and Tater (Carl Smith, long-time Carroll assistant)’. That answer, now more than ever, symbolises part of the problem. If Mahomes and the Chiefs think they need someone on the staff who’s prepared to ruffle a few feathers, I’ll take that as gospel for most teams. At the very least, Carroll needs someone on his staff who is going to deliver accountability. I’m afraid his son and a pal with a potato-based nickname simply aren’t cutting it.
— I think there’s something in the whole ’49ers struggle against mobile quarterbacks’ narrative. Russell Wilson always did well against the Shanahan Niners. Lamar Jackson looked very good yesterday, even if there wasn’t that much scrambling. I just wonder, with a player like Jayden Daniels in the draft in 2024, whether the Seahawks need to give a lot of thought to finding a way to acquire him. It wouldn’t just be because he can move around. Daniels is also a very good deep-ball passer and I’ve seen enough evidence on tape of progression work to feel like it can become a staple of his next-level game. Having a quarterback who can move around and keep a defense in contain is a big plus anyway — I would like them to explore this possibility more, particularly with Daniels’ availability in the next draft.
— I was a big fan of Lamar Jackson at Louisville, as regulars will know. He had special qualities. He only lasted until the 32nd pick in the 2018 draft because of a catastrophic pre-draft process which included refusing to do much at the combine and being a pain in the arse to contact for meetings/workouts because he insisted on his mother being his agent (a problem that extended into contract talks with the Ravens, too). I think it’s a reminder that when discussing drafting a QB, you’ve got to look for those special qualities and not focus too much on negatives. Lamar had unreal ability as a runner to go with a tremendous arm and skill as a passer. He had first class traits. These are the players you take a chance on. It’s why I liked C.J. Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson so much this year. They had traits you can work with to enhance. Special qualities. They might not work out — but those types of players give you the best opportunity to find a difference maker at a vital position. It’s also why I continue to believe Spencer Rattler is someone to keep in our minds. If Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye are going to be long gone by the time Seattle picks, Rattler won’t be. His arm talent is special. There’s a reason why he drew comparisons to Mahomes when he was being touted as a potential #1 pick three years ago. He’s a changed man at South Carolina — he plays within structure, he’s matured greatly and he retains all of that special arm talent. If he lasts, as previous very talented players have done (Lamar, Russell Wilson) — just keep his name in mind. I’m glad nobody talks about him but there’s a reason why he turned pro when the rest of college football’s big name quarterbacks bolted for a big pay-day in the portal. I think Rattler’s getting much more positive NFL feedback than people realise.
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Thank HEAVENS the producers of that particular franchise knew when to call it quits.
Making more Indiana Jones movies would have been a disaster and really sullied the reputation of one of the greatest franchises in movie history.
I mean – literally riding off into the sunset? No better way to say goodbye to a great franchise.
😂😂😂😂😂
10/10 for sarcasm
10/10 for hitting it out of the park with the point you made
I pray we don’t get Pete Carroll and the Dial of Destiny.
“Pete, you’re my density”.
Is that where Pete Carroll tries to go back in time to 2012 and ends up in 1992?
“get” is future tense.
We have gotten Pete Carroll and the Dial of Destiny.
Carroll’s more a dial of density.
If we’d lost out, we may have seen Pete “drink from the wrong chalice” by way of Last Crusade, also. Instead, he’s the last of the Crusade knights, perpetually hanging on despite all logic.
He has discovered the Kingdom Of the Crystal Peacock though.
Wait, isn’t that Big Mike’s line?
Rob, that history pull you did a couple years ago would fit this piece perfectly.
How many NFC teams have made it to the NFCCG since the Seahawks last did? There were like only two if I recall.
Since the last time Seattle played in the NFCCF the following teams have played in it:
Carolina
Arizona
Atlanta
Green Bay x3
Philadelphia x2
Minnesota
LA Rams x2
New Orleans
San Francisco x3
Tampa Bay
Teams who haven’t played in it since then:
Detroit
Dallas
NY Giants
Washington
Chicago
Seattle
really hope dallas gets comfortable on this list
Imagine being a defensive coach and preaching the need to run the ball and your team is pathetic attempting either even with ample investment.
comPete is such a liar (we will play great defense, we will run the ball, bla, bla, bla) and I’m sick of his lies. They done nothing to make me think they’re “close”.
In three games against the cream of the NFL crop the Seahawks have lost 37-3, 31-13 and 28-16. And for anyone who watched those 49ers games – the final score actually made the games look closer than they really were.
Seahawks have the fourth fewest rushing attempts in the NFL. If Pete thinks he is cunningly bluffing opponents over the play calling plan, they are not going to buy it (well, maybe one or two exceptions…)
Nailed as usual Rob. I always get this knot in the pit of my stomach watching us play. Like we get blown out of the water by elite teams and against mediocre ones we lose or win by a hair.
Just missing or just sneaking into the PO’s every year to lose in the first round sounds miserable.
The nfc is weak argument is my new favorite.
Oh yeah. It’s weak. You don’t say. Is it weird that we’re struggling to be one game above .500 with so many of our losses coming within the nfc and our own division.
Wait a second. Are ‘we’ one of the weak teams dragging down the overall level of confidence in the division?
A coworker recently said ‘the NFC is weak!’ as an argument for a deep Seahawks playoff run.
I replied “yes, we sure are.”
His face – I’m not sure I’ve said only 4 words that have had such an impact on someone recently.
Trying to picture this coworker and if they know about your great writeups.
I would say since it’s weak it is all the more reason to make a coaching move and draft a QB. Get ahead of other teams that are weak and middling and become a bully at the top then. As Rob mention outside of QB, which i know is a big thing, this team only needs a couple pieces here and there to be better. It’s underachieving because of way over priced veterans that need to be cut and coaching. Get that QB of the future in the draft, new coaching staff and cut the safeties with Bobby and this team can make some noise next year.
This is the move right here. Kept hearing about the demise of Stafford and Ridgers being in the AfC and it all being wide open. Seems like that’s both untrue and could be made possible by bring bold.
Fortune favors the bold.
I don’t disagree with your analysis, yet with the Seahawks a near-lock for the playoffs, it’s difficult to imagine any major changes among our coaching staff after the season. And with Carroll’s contract going through 2025, even with the worst season imaginable next year, it’s hard to fathom Jody firing a legend with only one year left on his contract. Feels like for good or ill, we’re with Pete, and his assistants, for two more seasons.
“If we beat a team, that team is bad” is a fallacy known as petitio principii. A 10-7 season is by no means bad, and a progress compared to a 9-8 against a weaker schedule if we get there. Shanahan doesn’t have “our number” (though McVay does), Pete has a winning record against Kyle.
The Seahawks beat 3 different double-digit win teams this year, no one else did that. The Seahawks won games with a patchwork oline, the 49ers are 0-4 whenever Trent Williams missed a snap.
No, it’s not all roses. The issues you mention about run game and run defense are real. The continued slide of the defense in DVOA is worrisome. But the picture is much more nuanced than “we suck and we’re not competitive”. We had the 6th hardest schedule in the league and we hold a winning record. We didn’t lose against losing teams — unlike in 2022.
And it’s rather curious that you talk about shelf life of coaches after praising Harbaugh, who has been with the Ravens longer than Pete with the Seahawks, and spent many seasons in the so-called “purgatory” after winning the Superbowl (one year before Pete).
It’s also something that was never said at any point in this article.
If you’re going to pushback, at least pushback against things I actually said.
I guess we can call this the strawmanio strawmanii fallacy.
Ok, now address the relevant points I made in the article with regards to the team instead of creating a different argument about a record that I never touched on.
He’s 5-0 against Carroll in the last five games, all cake-walk wins.
We can talk about what used to happen five years ago if you want, but it doesn’t seem relevant to the here and now — which is Shanahan having our number, clearly.
Well that’s me convinced, we’re clearly better than them.
Except I haven’t written in this article, “we suck and we’re not competitive.”
I’ve actually gone to great lengths to explain and detail my arguments, providing ample ‘nuance’.
You, on the other hand, keep putting words in my mouth and reducing the relevant, detailed arguments to unlettered strawman counters.
Perhaps if you’d actually read the arguments I’ve detailed, you’d notice I also explained why I think Harbaugh succeeds where Carroll fails — his willingness to oversee rather than control, emboldening his coordinators to lead tactical game-planning and identity and reaping the results as a consequence. I even wrote that I think Carroll can succeed if he took this approach but I do not believe he is prepared to do it.
I am always happy to debate my arguments, views and points raised in the articles I write.
You’ll have to do a lot better than this I’m afraid, Luis, if you want to debate them seriously.
1. You dismissed the win against the Eagles (because they lost against the Seahawks, it seems). That’s not the most important, but it gets tired that every win this year is followed by a comment saying that the other team is bad. When we lose, “Pete must go”, when we win, “this will distract us from the fact that Pete must go”.
2. You said that a 10-7 season is a bad spot to be (I don’t think so). I think 10-7 is a great spot to be this season with a tough schedule, after going 9-8 against a weak schedule in 2022. Your argument is that a team that goes 10-7 stays 10-7 forever (“You’re never good enough to feel truly energised or hopeful but not bad enough to consider serious change”). But it’s not. The 10-7 teams are the ones that surge when the right pieces fall in the right places and go win it all. Just look at… Baltimore (who finished 10-7 in 2022).
3. Shanahan went 5-0 in the last 5 games. He was 2-8 before that, coming from a 4 game losing streak. 3 of those wins came in a rebuilding year (Geno starter after 7 years, rookie tackles, dead cap for Russ).
4. “Well that’s me convinced, we’re clearly better than them.”. Sound argument after complaining that I put words in your mouth (which I didn’t, but I am going to your quoted words in this comment because paraphrases are not welcome).
5. Again, you said verbatim: “I just think coaches generally have a shelf-life”, the very next paragraph after praising Harbaugh, who has been with the Ravens since 2008. I haven’t even met my wife in 2008, we have had (considerably) more than 2 kids by now.
6. “Harbaugh succeeds where Carroll fails”. Really? Since the Ravens went to the Super Bowl, how many playoff wins they had? This is a common complaint on this blog about Carroll, isn’t it? One and done, no playoff wins, etc. How many playoff wins did “successful” Harbaugh had since he went to the Super Bowl? Two. One plus one. “Failed” Pete went to the following Super Bowl (2014 season), then lost to the Super Bowl runner up twice in the divisional round (2015 and 2016), then the LOB was dismantled and he made it back and had another win in the 2018 season (“against a 40 year old washed QB yada yada yada”), and two more years of playoffs.
I would imagine Harbaugh would be the poster child of what you DON’T want. Defensive-minded coach with repeated 8 to 10 win seasons, one and done in the playoffs if they even make it, keeping his job around because his team never sucks too much. But you use him to say “look at him, he’s succeeding where Pete’s failing”. Really, Rob? He’s having a great season, and he’s a great coach. But his history with the Ravens and Pete’s with the Seahawks are highly comparable. It doesn’t make sense anymore. Pete is a nail and everything is a hammer.
I didn’t dismiss the win against the Eagles. I called them ‘the collapsing Eagles’ which is a perfectly fair reflection of what they are, currently. They lost three games in a row and did not play well against an awful Giants team yesterday. Everyone can see they have clear issues and don’t look like the team from last year, or even earlier this season. The Philly fans want their OC fired and the DC has already been fired. Their DB’s are atrocious. John Middlekauff, only half-jokingly, said ‘what if they fired Sirianni if they’d lost yesterday?’ This is just the reality of what the Eagles are. They are collapsing.
No, I didn’t say that. This is literally what I wrote:
“I don’t look at this Seahawks team and feel like the 2023 season, led by Pete Carroll and these coordinators, is the latest step of a journey to Super Bowl contention. I think they are what their record this season and last shows. They are a 9-8, 8-9, 10-7, 7-10 type team. Each year they’ll have an opportunity to be in that bracket. They’ll be in the playoff discussion, mostly because of the ridiculous introduction of a seventh seed. Yet this is often a deceptive and frustrating place to exist. You’re never good enough to feel truly energised or hopeful but not bad enough to consider serious change. Often anyone brave enough to bring this up is accused of being ‘spoilt’ because, well, the Panthers are really bad or something.”
You asked for more nuance in your last comment. My words above are nuance, explaining the position. I do not believe this is the latest step on a journey to contention. I think with this staff, they are destined to be in this realm and change is required. I’ve explained why I believe this in detail within the article. You putting words in my mouth and creating quotes I didn’t say, this is the exact lack of nuance you were referring to yourself.
Please, stop with the strawman stuff and stop putting words in my mouth.
Nope, this isn’t my argument at all.
My argument is this team, led by Carroll and his coordinators, is good enough to annually be in the 7, 8, 9 or 10 win range but isn’t capable of progressing beyond that.
It’d be nice if you could actually debate my points.
So they’re 5-0 against Seattle in their last five games.
As I said, they have their number.
Yes, you literally tried to put words in my mouth and are continuing to do it. And there’s a difference between that and a sarcastic response, like the one I posted.
And again, I explained why Harbaugh is succeeding, why the shelf-life argument is not with him yet, why I think Carroll can equally extend his shelf-life but won’t.
Yes.
Exhibit A — this season.
Exhibit B — last night’s game.
Harbaugh is not a defensive minded Head Coach.
Yes and I explained why in the piece and in two replies to you.
I am ending this exchange now. I’m not wasting any more time addressing strawmen arguments or you claiming I’m saying things not even remotely touched on in the article.
When you’re ready to properly address the points raised in a 3000 word article, I’m here for it and will happily debate as I am with all people, any time.
But if people aren’t going to actually discuss the article and just invent positions and arguments I haven’t voiced, that’s of no value to anyone.
You wrote: “Go and get the best two coordinators money can buy and let them run the show tactically. Be the overseer. Appointing ‘his guys’ to execute ‘his vision’ hasn’t worked for years.”
The Ravens’ current DC and Wink Martindale were both internal promotions (“his guys”). All Pete’s OCs since Bates have been outsiders. Waldron is a McVey disciple which seems like exactly what you’re looking for. Your criticism of Pete, especially in comparison to Harbaugh, doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. It depends entirely on your subjective, unsupported assertion that he doesn’t “empower” his coordinators.
You are creating a bad faith argument, seemingly in an attempt to find ‘anything’ to pushback on.
It doesn’t matter how Harbaugh came to his coordinators, how that compares to Carroll or whatever.
The point is simply this — Carroll appointing his guys to run his vision hasn’t worked for years. So he should go out and appoint the best coordinators he can and cede some control, acting as an overseer. The comparison is that Harbaugh is already an overseer. That’s it.
Harbaugh has never been tied to any vision, unlike Carroll. He has frequently adjusted and adapted with the players he has, or to the current predicament of the team. For example, appointing an expert with running quarterbacks that can execute a gameplan for Lamar initially, now pivoting this year by instead hiring a college OC with some league experience who can take them (and the QB) to a new place.
The internal appointment stuff doesn’t have to directly apply to Harbaugh either. The point is it hasn’t worked for Carroll. Clearly, with Wink Martindale and Mike McDonald, it has worked for Harbaugh. If it worked for Carroll — we wouldn’t need to discuss it. But it hasn’t.
This is all about Carroll doing what he should’ve done years ago, adopting the role that Harbaugh has as an overseer. I believe that would provide an opportunity for the Seahawks to succeed in a way they cannot with Carroll’s current approach.
By the way — ‘Carroll’s guys’ doesn’t have to ‘just’ mean internal appointments. All of the OC appointments have been underwhelming, with the idea that they run Carroll’s offense.
If you think that any of these coordinators aren’t calling Pete’s offense for him, I have some magic beans to sell you.
There’s ample evidence out there, notably Carroll’s own words.
I disagree with your premise.
On defense it’s been well documented that toward the end of KNJ’s run they shifted toward more 3-4 fits, which continued under Hurtt. Pete also brought in Desai to install of-the-moment Fangio schemes on the back end.
On offense they’ve changed run blocking schemes multiple times, notably ran more 3 TE sets last year based on personnel, and made other less obvious adjustments under each OC.
You keep accusing people of bad faith arguments but your core argument against Pete appears to be entirely baseless. If there’s “ample evidence” please show it because all you’ve given so far is opinion presented as fact.
I have never claimed that Pete’s way is strictly cemented to specific defensive formations. He has used 3-4 personnel within a 4-3 scheme, now he’s adjusted to more orthodox 3-4 scheming. It’s not a massive change, or a shift in ideology.
Also on offense — again, at no point have I suggested that the Seahawks have kept a specific failing run blocking system. Again, it’s the broader ideology (which is repeated constantly by Carroll about how he wants to build) and need for control.
What I have done is list all the areas where Carroll has failed or is failing in this article.
Maybe we could discuss the points I’ve actually raised? There’s a novel concept.
The fact that you are so unwilling to is a classic misdirection. I see this all the time. You haven’t actually got any real answer to the points raised. So just accuse the arguments of being baseless or that I’m presenting opinion as fact.
When I note the failure of the defense and the DVOA rankings (a system Carroll persistently references), these are facts not opinions. When I reference how much they talked about improving their run defense then explain statistically that they have failed, these are facts not opinions. When I detail they run the ball fourth fewest among all teams despite committing so much to the run game in terms of resource and identity, these are facts not opinions. When I talk about the records against Shanahan and McVay, facts not opinions. When I note that the team has not been able to make best use of exploiting opponent weaknesses with their expensive star playmakers, this is a clear concern that even Carroll himself has conceded.
It’s impossible to push back against this so all you’ve got is to resort to baseless accusations to form a smear. We see right through it.
So a friendly recommendation. Debate the points. Stop deflecting. Stop accusing people of talking ‘nonsense’. Lose the attitude. Embrace that relevant concerns can be raised even if you’d rather not focus on them.
Until you start doing that, I’m going to move this along. We’ve wasted too much time arguing over things not detailed in the article.
The Ravens are the culture model Pete Carroll says he wants. Always be competing? They weren’t willing to settle for good enough at quarterback. They had Flacco and consistently won 8-10 games after winning the Super Bowl when they drafted Lamar.
Running back a 9 win team isn’t competing for the Super Bowl. You’re either competing or you’re not.
💯💯💯
So what exactly is your point? Are you saying that the Seahawks are a good football team and that you have confidence they’re on the track to being legit contenders for a Super Bowl? If so, I’d truly appreciate you explaining how you came to that conclusion because clearly we’re watching different games week in and week out.
I (and many others) see a team with a lot of talent but with no clear direction or a direction that has been passed up by the league.
By now we all know what a Pete Carroll led Seahawks team looks like. I’m ready for something different. Do you really expect this or next season to be any different?
Something, something, doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
You are kind of proving the article: excuses of getting into the playoffs are going to let this derailed train continue.
You know what they say about putting lipstick on a pig…and a lot of people are trying to get that swine dressed up in the last few weeks….
two things can be true at the same time… we are not a contender, but we’re in contention!!
I’m not in a good faith mood this morning, so I’m apologizing to Rob, et al. in advance
One of the worst parts of the social experience online has been the proliferation of experts in argument and argument structure. Much like like the vast number of unknown medical experts filling up Facebook, and legal experts dancing on TikTok. If you aren’t a philosophy professor, speech writer, lawyer, or engaged in a like profession that uses logical fallacies and adjacent fallacies on a daily basis, better to stick to your day job.
By front loading yours with one, and then choosing to use the Latin version petito principii, I figured you were the laughed at the the irony of how many real fallacies you managed to cram into your post. I almost wondered if it was performance art. I’m no expert, but allow a layman to help you be better.
You come off like a college student who has just learned about a new philosophy and are going to use it as a cudgel to beat others with your own superiority. I promise you, Seahawk fandom is filled with PhDs, lawyers, and really smart people of every walk of life. Rob is a professional journalist, he writes opinion pieces on a blog for fun – a safe bet is that he knows how to frame arguments, and do it well. A little humility goes a long way, unless you are me and it is part of your schtick to have none.
Petito principii is an informal fallacy otherwise known as begging the question, why did you choose to use the Latin phrase instead of the common English one? The obvious answer is appeal to authority (or argumentum ab auctoritate if you prefer) – by choosing to use Latin you are suggesting you have superior intellect, or should be afforded some form of deference. Rob correctly points out your strawman (no Latin here, so maybe you don’t know it). But you chose to include a Red Herring, equivocation, Hasty Generalization, False Dilemma, Appeal to Ignorance, Circular argument, Appeal to Pity, Causal Fallacy, and impressively an ad hominem. You couldn’t figure out how to squeeze in Appeal to Hypocrisy, Slippery Slope, Sunk Cost and Bandwagon Fallacy so the kiddos at home could yell BINGO?
My apologies for not typing out the Latin phrases, my thumbs are fat and talk to text doesn’t like Latin.
Since Rob pretty much took you to the cleaners and back again, I’m going to give you a tip to bring back to whatever give you typically inhabit. Unless it is your profession to argue, don’t approach something you disagree with as an argument that you want to win. Approach it as a discussion where you want to understand the opinion of another, even if you disagree, especially if you disagree. Rather than looking for what you perceive to be the weakest part of their argument, find the strongest part and test it.
I’ll leave you with Proverbs 27:17… ferrum ferro acuitur et homo exacuit faciem amici sui
Post of the year, Lou.
🔥🔥🔥
Right up there for sure
Sapienter dictum, LouCityHawk
I was thinking the same thing you just put it much more eloquently than I ever could have. From my philosophy, logic 201 course almost 20 years ago, I too am an internet expert! I don’t know how Rob has the patience, but I absolutely appreciate his passion in delivering this free to anyone blog.
Thanks Chris
Thanks for the compliment! All those typos kind of spoil the soup though.
My parents were obsessed with me getting a classic education that included Latin practice and lots of defend your position in Bible study. I keep waiting for alcohol and age to kill those brain cells off.
Oh thats Latin. Evidently LouCity is an educated man
Pretty sure I was supposed to take over my dad’s business and make an empire to rival Bechtel or some damn thing…went my own way.
Nice comment Lou.
Unfortunately the internet is proving vox populi vox dei sadly correct.
Nec audiendi qui solent dicere, vox populi, vox Dei, quum tumultuositas vulgi semper insaniae proxima sit.
Indeed
This has been one of the finest exchanges on SDB. Lou’s response was priceless. (Pricelessium?).
I don’t know Latin, but I’d have added something about a rectum.
BOOM, y’all just got lit up!!!!
The analogy of Arsène Wenger at Arsenal is how I describe our situation to any friends here in Liverpool that are interested, I think it’s very apt! Hope this can be the last dance kind of situation but fear it’s unlikely. I’d be happy for Carroll to stay if he handed over responsibility to a top OC and DC but I sadly don’t see that being the case either! Either way hopefully we keep winning and can have some fun highlights along the way at the very least! Loving reading the blog every few days, thanks for all the hard work!
I was also thinking “aha the Lions, we might get a win there, and perhaps get lucky with the Eagles”. But this is wishful thinking, not relying on something that works. We got nothing to show, the only thing keeping us alive is a combination of luck and don’t give up mentality.
Probably we’ll have to trade up to get a QB, so it might not be possible to do what I suggest, but I think getting on the Ravens path would require us to go QB with our first round pick and OG and DT with our 3rd rounders. We need a LB with coverage skills and we need a S so we can finally get rid of Yikes but we could do with a Julian Love/Ryan Neal kind of move there and finally set focus on the running game, both sides of the ball.
Seeing as they already beat both those teams I’m not sure it’s “wishful thinking” to believe they could potentially do it again. Seems very logical actually
“I’m afraid his son and a pal with a potato-based nickname simply aren’t cutting it.”
Too funny.
(though… not funny)
Embarrassingly funny, more like it..
When the Seahawks lost to the 49ers two weeks ago everyone blasted the defense. The Hawks defense gave up over 500 yards. However, they only allowed 28 points to maybe the best offense in the NFL. The 49ers have been rolling. They have had a number of blowout victories over good NFL defenses. If you recall the week before the 49ers dropped 42 on the Eagles. So why was everyone shocked that the Hawks gave up 28. As you recall the first two touchdowns were on big plays. Well actually McCaffery set up the first TD with a 72 yard run. The second TD was a 54 yard pass to Deebo Samuel where Jamal Adams(who got burnt in coverage) and his 18mil salary was trying in a futile effort was trying to catch Deebo Samuel. On that touchdown by Deebo the only thing I could think of was watching Adams and his 18mil salary following Deebo to the end zone. The final TD was a 44 yard pass from Purdy to George Kittle. The Hawks gave up 173 yards on the ground. But 72 came on the McCaffery run. So for the last 59 minutes the Hawks only gave up 101 yards on the ground against the 49ers. Which isn’t the worst thing in the world.
My point is that the defense of the Hawks seems to be going in the right direction. They played the last two games with out Jamal Adams and his 18+mil dollar contract. In the last two games against Philadelphia(Home) and Tennessee on the road the Hawks defense was stingy they only gave up a combined 34 points. Which is pretty darn good. That was without their best player on defense Devon Witherspoon.
The big play against the 49ers is what killed the Seahawks. The Hawks were actually ahead 10-7 until the blown coverage of Jamal Adams. So on defense the Hawks need to prevent the big play. It’s funny that Riq Woolen had one of his better games after getting benched the week before. Coincidence? I don’t think so.
This Sunday the Seahawk defense will be tested. They are playing the Steelers. The Steelers just came off of their best offensive performance(by far) this year. So we will see. Win or lose. The Steelers are always tough and just plain physical.
Nobody was shocked the Seahawks gave up 28 points to the Niners.
A bad performance on defense is not limited to ‘how many points did you give up compared to X team’
Just a small point…if I remember right, the 9ers ended the game taking a knee in the redzone. So, it could have been 31 or 35 had they wanted to run it up. I don’t think it matters either way though, we were clearly not in the same class during either game.
Rob, lazy scouting report on Rattler 🤦🏼♂️
https://www.fantasypros.com/2023/12/2024-nfl-draft-scouting-report-spencer-rattler-qb-south-carolina/amp/
You’re going to see a lot of that, right up until one national guy says something like, ‘teams like him more than you think’
Then we’ll see the tune change, as per usual
Thanks for the link. It’s always worth reading a multitude of scouting reports, if only to get a sense of what the broader community thinks. I’d run, not walk, to pick him in the 4th. He shouldn’t last that long. But a second — should the Seahawks acquire one — might do it.
“Drops his eyes against pressure and needs to stay in the pocket better.”
Idk what to say, it’s just flat wrong. It’s like looking at Josh Allen and saying that he’s short.
Search all instances of the number “2023” and replace with “2024”
Search all instances of the phrase “Will Levis” and replace with “Spencer Rattler”
And…post!
Most QBs that dropped in the draft were not considered elite throwers.. but if you have arm talwnt, that will propel almost anyone to the top of the draft.. russell wilson fell because of his height.. lamar fell because his pre draft stuff and odd throwing motion..
List goes on and on about why fan favorites QBs fell in the draft.. but the elite throwers in josh allen and mahomes didnt last past pick 10.. because teams will still go for the big arms.
Maybe rattler doesnt quite have the arm they do.. he is definitely a better passer than bo nix and penix.. we all just have to wait for the combine and the “buzz” to start.. thats when QBs will start to seperate themselves..
If rattler shines.. theres no reason he cant find himself back in the first or second round..
What’s funny is Mahomes was projected as a 2nd round pick because of his poor footwork and the fact he played in an Air Raid offense. People had Rosen and Darnold ahead of Allen and Jackson. Rattler has a pretty good arm and has made more nfl type throws than both Nix and Penix. Rattler is the closest to being a Schneider QB. I agree Rattler can improve his draft stock with a great senior bowl, scouting combine, and pro day performance.
Shane Norton Jr is currently the OC because he received the ‘Russell Wilson Stamp of Approval.’ Of the candidates presented post-Schottenheimer, he was the least bad.
Clint Hurtt is currently the DC because he’s one of Pete’s “guys.” He was already here when KNJr was cut loose – an easy transition for Pete.
If both of these guys were fired tomorrow, there seems little chance that either would get so much as a sniff at their current position with any other team.
If both of these guys were fired tomorrow, it’s highly improbable that Pete could or would replace them with better coaches. No up-and-comer is going to hitch his wagon to a 73-year old coach who’s over a decade past his glory days.
In summary, it probably is what it is until it ain’t no more. Pete surely realizes this, but it’s hard to walk away from complete control and $12.5m per year.
(Also, thank god for the Indiana Jones where he got blowed up – blowed up real good – but rode it out in a refrigerator.)
Similar conversations were being had about John harbaugh and now the ravens look like the the best team in the NFL. He switched up coordinators and now look at them.
Do you, we, really think Pete is going to get great coordinators to do their thing?
People feel a certain way about Schottenheimer but we had a top 10 offense every year he was here and Pete gave him the axe.
Flacco to Lamar could not be different bey Harbaugh has changed.
On the note of Lamar is Seattle and more importantly, Pete, prepared to find the best quarterback he can?
I have a lot of geaitation about Harbaugh but he’s doing the hardest thing. Reinventing his game. If Pete got a Schwartz for defense and someone besides Waldron ( not his son btw) to be OC I’ll shut up.
I’d love to see it. But Pete’s got a big ego and for 14 years thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room.
Hesitation…wt heck phone
Just playing devil’s advocate here, Rob mentions in the post that we’re league bottom feeders in both rushing attempts and yards– doesn’t this mean he’s already sacrificing his principles and empowering a coordinator? Waldron is a Mcvay guy after all, not a Pete yes-man who is known for running the ball like Bevell and Schotty.
You might be right.
Seriously. We are pass first and they may be a Waldron decision.
Similar dynamics with Rivera-Bienemy, who is forcing Sam freakin Howell to throw 45 times.
I honestly don”t buy the narrative that Pete restricts his OC to archaic offense, and forbids to do the cool horizontal and other stuff with lot’s of motion like Mcvay, Reed, Shanahan or McDaniel. Another thing is that our OC is incapable of doing that. Same RB motion to the side and back to know if it’s man or zone, and we are good to go. Same thing was with Schottenheimer. I find this almost comic at this point. Also, it seems our OC has no feel for the game. Maybe that’s not so easy after all. When i watch Payton’s Broncos, I see a boring offense as well.
Re: Payton
Russ has fallen way off. The qb makes the WR’s and the WR’s make the qb. He us playing the driest football imaginable and frankly all of Denvers recievers would be battling for that coveted Bobo slot if they were in Seattle.
Will not be surprised if they take a qb with their first pick. Also will not be surprised if they identify a mid round WR that will be much better than what they currently have.
Additionally I don’t think Pete restricts his OC. I just think our OC would not be one for any other team after this run.
I don’t believe the OC in Seattle has ever been given the keys to the offense.
That doesn’t mean they don’t input on game planning. But neither are they trusted to take full control. Carroll is on top of everything. He has stated as much.
I have listened to two pieces of audio this week detailing how much Harbaugh emboldens his coordinators to dictate tactical decision making. Every Head Coach has a say, of course. Some need to know when to take a step back and oversee.
Sten — I think it’s simply more indicative of a team that has lost its way. Otherwise they wouldn’t be spending R2 picks on RB’s. That in itself was a commitment to run that they have failed to deliver.
I worry Pete has already gone the manegerial route and is letting Waldron and Hurtt do what they want, and this is the result. Problem is he’s just bad at picking coordinators.
As a commenter who has called this team a contender to win playoff games since the beginning of the season, I’ve always understood that to be an indictment of the NFC.
I’ve often played the game with people when comparing conference to conference (in any sport), of trade team X for team Y, now who would be doing better/worse.
Or rather, reseed the teams by record, but have a competition committee make adjustments so that if Tua goes down in the last game you don’t rank the Dolphins as highly.
Yuk. A competition committee to subjectively decide playoff ranking? Please God no.
Makes more sense than division winners getting a home field.
I totally disagree. Winning divsion games are the toughest, you can throw records out.
There is “bad blood” between rivals, and even though you should be up for all teams,
going against the same personnel twice, brings out the best….haha or not (9ers) maybe the 3rd time will be a charm.
I disagree rather vehemently with a player going down causing a team’s rank to change. I understand reseeding by record and maybe even adding a degree of strength of schedule to it; however, I think adjusting due to a player going down just fully goes the route of what is best for ratings rather than what is best for the competitive fairness. It’s why I think committees are not actually better than division winners getting a home field. Intrinsic bias will never be avoided, so at least there is an unchanging precedent with the division winners getting a home game. I would have no qualm with reseeding based on an objective formula, but adjusting by committee would lead to intrinsic biases opening up. The intrinsic biases can clearly be shown by who wins the NFL MVP award; however, that is fine on the basis that the MVP award is largely meaningless in the sense of the competition. Let me know if I am misrepresenting your view, please.
Rob – Well reasoned and presented discussion. Your thighs give depth to a summary I posted on another site this morning. I look at the Seahawks and feel constantly conflicted. I grew up in the PNW and have been a Mariner and Seahawks fan from inception. Playoff runs are fun, but it just doesn’t change much and I worry it keeps the discussion off the table. I believe the team is 24-25 going back to 2021. Poor tackling dates back the prior coordinators. I just feel the team keeps treading water.
At least it’s college basketball season and I have the Gonzaga Bulldogs to keep the winter months moving forward!
HUGE Gonzaga fan here too. Not sure they have the depth or the outside shooting to keep that string of Sweet 16s alive this season I’m afraid.
An interesting thought experiment: let’s assume the Seahawks have some miracle run in the playoffs and actually win at least a game, how far in the playoffs will they have to make it for faith in Carroll to be restored? How much time does it buy Carroll if we go to the NFCCG and lose to the 9ers? I wouldn’t be impressed by a single win followed by a loss
Well….
Practically there is no time line. He’s here through 2025.
Faith? Get me two wins……and…..
Be competitive next year. Try beating teams. I’m over the 4th quarter comebacks. Try being legit good somewhere on the field. Create a team where I don’t hear two ( more?) Years of excuses.
The refs, the oline, rookie tackles, bad scheme, if only this happened, ….
It’s tiring. It’s like people forget we used to be an actual good team. Under Pete. He wasn’t always this way. We used to crush teams.
Much would depend on the circumstances.
A scraping win against a battered depleted MASH unit of a team? Not worth much
A balanced, well schemed gutty win on the road against a superior opponent? Now we have something to discuss.
Earlier when the 2nd round pick was traded for L.Williams I said the Seahawks needed to at least make the NFC championship game, with contributions by Williams, for the trade to make any sense to me whatsoever (paraphrasing myself).
That would therefore represent an absolute bear minimum for me. Anything less than the NFC championship game this year I would view as yet another, in a long string of, organizational misuses of resources.
I wouldn’t say an NFC championship appearance would necessarily “restore my faith” in Carroll/Schneider, but it would be the point at which I could BEGIN entertaining those thoughts as a possiblity.
Meanwhile the 49ers sign Sebastian Joseph-Day. The kind of move they always done, that’s how you stay successful.
The whole “he switched up coordinators” and give them total control is the entire point Rob is trying to make. But it’s unlikely to happen because Pete demands absolute control and as the saying goes absolute power corrupts absolutely and the current Seahawks are the result in living color.
It’s kind of funny you cite the Ravens because for the past several seasons they have been the exact same type of mediocre team as the Seahawks. Since winning their SB (the year before Seattle) they’ve missed the playoffs multiple times and had multiple losing seasons. They were one-and-done the year Lamar was MVP. By your logic they should have moved on from Harbaugh and rolled the dice on some hot new coach years ago. But, fortunately for Baltimore fans, they didn’t and here they are.
They found their quarterback and were legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Then they used the time and resources to fill out the roster. They have had some very good seasons and some that weren’t up there.
But to say that they are where we are? Kind of a bad joke. Rob laid out the difference with the Ravens. I don’t think people read the article.
Rob’s asserted “difference” is nonsense (see my reply in the exchange with Luis above). Look at each team’s records since their SB wins. Prior to this year they hadn’t been “legitimate Super Bowl contenders” since at best 2014.
And yet now they are.
And they destroyed the 49ers.
And the Seahawks consistently can’t get to this level and haven’t for years.
So much for that ‘nonsense’ eh…
The fact that the Ravens hired talented coordinators and Harbaugh allows them to run their branch of the team is nonsense? Both coordinators are going to get job interviews. Coordinators for them in the past have gotten hired away. Pete’s guys fail and become scape goats. Harbaugh stays out of their way and has been a success. You’re right, sounds nonsensical….
They went 14-2 a few years ago and we’re the best team. They’ve been able to reload and adapt. Find their quarterback, hit on their draft picks, bring in successful free agents. They have been competitive, found a brand of football, and then succeeded in playing that way.
You have some weird agenda or hill that you are trying to die on with your argument it’s just not working.
I believe Luis and Seahawksfan1201 are the same person.
I’ve cross-checked this and they aren’t — they are different posters and don’t use multiple user names within the community
🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
I literally pointed out why Harbaugh has succeeded and how Carroll could too by emulating his approach
I wish people would actually read the words in the article
Ravens:
#1 scoring defense
#4 scoring offense
Seahawks:
#23 scoring defense
#19 scoring offense
Instead of getting stale and probably realizing it’s been as long as us plus one year since winning the Superbowl, Harbaugh changed important things.
The end. This is not that tricky. It’s only difficult to grasp if people actual try to not grasp it.
💯💯💯💯
It’s annoying stuff like this has to be pointed out
Peter this is a great comment.
I’d like to piggyback on it and expand it just a hair if you will allow.
This year’s Ravens results are impressive. Mightily so.
What impresses me though, is how they got to the results.
In 2021, DC Wink Martindale was fired. Here are the results in the last 4 years of his tenure:
2021 #19 in scoring
2020 #2
2019 #3
2018 #2
2021 the Ravens put all 3 of their starting corners on IR at some point and lost Derek Wolfe for the season. Doesn’t matter. This is a results business. The Ravens dropped horribly and needed a fresh start. Wink resorted to blitzing at one of the highest rates in the NFL (#8) but couldn’t make it work with his other pieces and only achieved the #24 ranking in terms of pressure %. They got burned for blitzing regularly (sound familiar?).
Seahawks?
2023 currently #23
2022 #25
2021 #12 (Norton fired after)
2020 #15
2019 #22
****
In 2022, OC Greg Roman decided to step aside after talking with family and Harbaugh. Here are the results in the last 4 years of his tenure:
2022 #19 in scoring
2021 #17 in scoring
2020 #7 in scoring
2019 #1 in scoring (Lamar MVP year)
2022 was a disaster for injuries on offense. Lamar, Dobbins, Staley, Bateman all missed major stretches. Doesn’t matter. This is a results business. The offense was stagnating and Roman could not balance his offense to attack his opponents unpredictably (sound familiar?).
Seahawks?
2023 currently #19
2022 #19
2021 #9
2020 #8 (Schott fired)
2019 #9
If Seahawks fans applied their attitude to the Ravens, Wink would be a living legend who can stay as long as he wants for putting those defenses together, and Roman would be the genius who delivered a Lamar MVP and just had a bad run of injuries in his last year and both would be granted passes with ‘we will get ’em next year. We know where we have to improve and we’re gonna spend the offseason talking about improving it.’
Expand away. This is such great detail. Thanks, Cha.
they would have to comprehed first
I have this recurring nightmare in which the Seahawks win out. The town is overwhelmingly delighted. They get blown out in the Wildcard game. Pete Carroll gets a vote of confidence from Mother Jody. Geno Smith is retained and his contract extended. Lock is re-signed as a backup and the Hawks do not draft a QB. Carroll says Geno just has to play his game.
This forum is way too negative. The Seahawks are 8-7. But if you read the comments you would think they are 2-13.
That sound that you are hearing is weeks, months, and years of points being made about the team that you have either not been reading or listening to, or just flat out ignored.
If you want to enjoy your Potemkin village, then go ahead. Don’t complain about the alternative takes that people have.
People on this forum want the Seahawks to win a Super Bowl, or at least genuinely contend for one. Do you find being playoff meat for better teams satisfying? Because I find rooting for the team in its current state to be, at the end of the day, a factory of sadness.
They are 8-7 but they aren’t really competitive. They do somethings well, but otherwise are completely overmatched in others. They have a winning record most years, but they’re not really a true competitor, they haven’t won a playoff game since 2019. They are unlikely to win one this year, though they could, they haven’t put a complete together in YEARS. Do you want to win or do you want to be the Mariners, because doing just enough is mariners style.
I hope we finish 10-7. My problems aren’t with the results, but with the way we play and the way we got them. There are other stats than winning and losing, and we don’t look good there. I don’t think our record can be sustained unless major changes happen, at the level of coaching, roster construction, individual players. In other words, we can’t always be that lucky, and we are exposed as soon as we play with a contender.
Sampras, I’m not interested in reviews of the blog comments section
If you don’t like the content, there are plenty of other places to go and talk Hawks
Either debate the points in the article or I’ll move this along
good job rob
👍🏻
Examples?
Because by my read the overwhelming majority of commenters think this team is average to slightly above average, and they are frustrated because they want to be excellent or elite.
There are a lot of real life corollaries here: if your child has ‘clean the house’ as a chore, and they consistently do an above average job but always mess up the mirrors, windows and tile, is it negative to point out what they missed and figure out how to correct it? If an employee is turning in above average work, but you know they are capable of so much more, are you wrong to point that out?
Not everyone loves the idea of participation trophies, my nephew’s team consistently finished 4th in state the 3 years he was there, that sucks. Winning a majority of the time isn’t something everyone wants. That doesn’t make it negative.
Lou’s on fire
I too hate to read negativity on any website, however, there is a difference between –negativity– and reasonable and factual –constructive criticism–.
Past performance analysis is critical to improvement as many areas of weakness are identified, discussed in detail and suggestions for improvement are identified. The detailed discussions involved on this fan website are perhaps beyond the knowledge and understanding of the typical “bandwagon” fan.
💯
Great post!!!
Rob, the amount of people who don’t realize that the Seahawks are not a true contending team is staggering. This defense is ranked near the bottom of the league, and the offensive is wildly inconsistent. How could a team with both of those issues compete for a Superbowl?
Look at Point Differential if you want to find the good teams. Despite a winning record, the Seahawks Point Differential is negative.
We’ve won two games
As if by clockwork, people are now feeling confident enough to start pushing back against relevant concerns. Sadly, they can’t help but resort to debating everything other than those exact relevant concerns. Because they can’t.
It took one game against a reeling team to wipe everything away for some to say that “we’ve found our quarterback” and “finally, we’re back on track!”
It took one more win (against a team that gave up weeks ago and had a backup starting) for a lot of fans to buy right back in and the talk of deep playoff runs and the future looking bright to come back.
And people wonder why Pete is still here, the media never asks hard questions, and mediocrity is welcomed….
💯💯💯💯
Every single team in the league looks beatable any given week. Eagles, 49ers, Cowboys have all lost multiple games in a row. Chiefs offense is a massive struggle, Bills were terrible all year but do look to be improving end of season. Jags have fallen apart, Cleveland is relying on their 4th QB fresh off the beach who’s throwing 2-3 INTs a game.
The Dolphins are a shell without Tyreek, but their defence has improved over the season (they were bad early on).
The only team who hasn’t been brutal for stretches this year is the Ravens. I’m not a Lamar believer, but they do have a stifling defence, a top OL and more weapons for Lamar finally. That being said, still not a single WR anywhere near 1000yds. Their top TE is out, and their explosive RB is out.
That’s the point of the “Seahawks could go the distance”. Technically, you could swap Seahawks with any team who still has their starting QB or top players. Health is one of the biggest factors this season.
No one has played well consistently, and saying the Seahawks could is more about the fact we’re already here in-season, so why not root for the team to win? It’s more fun to watch than a loss. It isn’t always about the future.
Just because other teams have issues, it doesn’t qualify any of the concerns brought up in this article
I’m replying to Romeo’s comment, not your article.
And Romeo is referencing the concerns in the article, to note that the Seahawks are not a true contender
The weakness of the NFC generally shouldn’t mask the issues within the team
Now look at it this way: out of all of the teams that you mentioned, who has a better coach than Pete? X’s and O’s, runs the team better, etc. Because if he is better, we are going to lose. He doesn’t beat anyone who is better.
Now look at their rosters. Are their overall rosters better than ours? Because if the answer is yes, we are going to lose. Eagles are the exception and the are REELING. There are articles out there of “what is wrong with the Eagles.” Both coordinators are already on the hot seat. There is talk of locker room issues.
If a team has both, we get blown out and odds are, embarrassed. Guess what. We will have to play one of those teams to get in the Super Bowl, and another to win it.
It has nothing to do with rooting for the team to win or lose. That comes down to just ignoring the issues saying that. They are where they are today, and the future isn’t any better as of right now. They aren’t competing in either time frames.
It is getting annoying having to justify the realities of this team and organization when the answer is “shut up and enjoy that they won, you aren’t a fan otherwise.”
(Last bit isn’t you, but it is EVERYWHERE after every game now; can’t critique the team, how dare we).
The Seahawks are just scraping by very beatable teams while not being terribly competitive against the undeniable good teams they have faced, SF and Baltimore.
Many on this blog want to see a team that is capable of a future SB run, but we cannot that with this coaching staff, QB and overpriced veterans.
Although I am firmly in the this team is mediocre camp, I continue to show my fandom and support for this team. I received a whole bunch of new Seahawks gear this weekend. If you see someone on an icy rooftop of a school, apartment or office building in the PNW fixing an antenna system wearing a brand new Seahawks Jacket and Beanie, it might be old Romeo.
How so many conversations go with articles like this…
— details arguments clearly
— someone doesn’t like the inconvenient content
— they create strawman arguments, put words in your mouth, accuse you of being ‘baseless’ in your views, do everything but argue the actual points made
— you moderate the comments because this is about as much use to anyone as a chocolate teapot
— they then piss and moan because they haven’t been given Carte Blanche to do everything but argue the actual points raised, while spewing bile in the process
So tiresome
If people want this level of debate, there are plenty of other places to go to bang your head against a wall. This isn’t the place.
If people want to actually debate the points in the article, or indulge in a proper conversation about the team without the smears, strawman stuff etc. I’m here for it. Everyone can see how much time I spend in the comments debating. Plenty of people disagree with me and we do it in an adult way and move on after.
But that doesn’t mean I have to waste time debating with people putting words in my mouth, deflecting, or smearing. It’s no worth in this community.
As much as I, personally, like the longer articles I think many people skim rather than sit down and read. Or rather, read till they find something they disagree with and immediately jump to comment. The longer the post, the more fertile the ground for such things. On the opposite end, I think you lay things out so very thoroughly, with so much to chew on, I find it hard to comment.
Concerning the team, I think really it boils down to two fundamental problems:
1. A coaching staff that’s failed to adapt to the modern NFL. I love Pete, and will be forever be grateful for the Super Bowl he brought, but that was 10 years ago and he’s so obviously fallen behind.
2. We’re stuck in QB purgatory/mediocrity and many refuse to acknowledge it.
Righto.
I’ll just hop over to Reddit to complain about you Rob.
Great article again Rob ……. That’s why in some articles written previously I mentioned MacDonald, he is 36 years old, I find him super interesting as long as you have a very good OC
I’m intrigued but still very much prefer an offensive minded HC
I think my concern with an Offensive HC is that the defense will probably still be lacking, personally i enjoy a physical style of game. I do not enjoy 43-40 games, and quite frankly the last few years have featured more of those than the other. We’ve been 7 years without a net positive defense, a new coach maybe more of the same, can we please just fix the defense.
I know people don’t want Quinn, but at least i’d get a competent defense (more than likely) and he was tuned in enough to hire Shanahan, he’s young enough and hopefully not set in his ways enough to bring in younger coaches.
Well, let’s be right — Quinn’s Dallas defense has not looked good recently. And he wouldn’t be able to bring Micah Parsons with him.
My preference is an offensive minded HC and then going and spending big on an experienced DC. That would be the best of both worlds.
I like physical football too and don’t think having an offensive HC means you can’t be physical. I want us to be creative and tactically excellent on offense because that’s shown to be the best way to contend currently. The best chance of that is an offensive identity supported by a complementary defense.
My only knock on him (and it might be a big one, not sure) is that I want to be completely cut off from Pete. No ties to him, no way for him to have any more influence. I feel that he would pick Quinn and I don’t want that.
He might have a system or style that he wants to play (and if it is ground and pound, tough defense, that is what I want) that would be ideal, just not sure how easy it is to be constantly replacing good OC’s compared to your OC being tied to the team as a head coach.
Him and MacDonald are the only defensive minds that should be an option.
I share that concern
I don’t want continuity Carroll
Sounds like the worst action figure ever.
Continuity Carroll, complete with gum for him to chew on! Help him save the day and find his run defense!
(been watching a lot of Toy Story with my toddler).
All right — I’ll bite.
At this point in time, who would you choose to replace Carroll?
Rob wrote a nice article a week or two ago, going through candidates and thoughts about the job, what should be looked at.
Thanks — I will go back and read it.
One interesting point on the Carroll critique, what if he were to:
1. Hire Brian Fleury (9ers tight ends coach) as the OC and give him complete control of the offense?
2. Hire Anthony Weaver (Ravens associate head coach and defensive line coach) as the DC and cede complete control to him.
Carroll remains the coach in charge of good vibes and feels. Suddenly he would have two coaches from wildly different systems, no ties to him, and each with their own desire to be a HC. What if Carroll decided that part of his legacy should be imparting the Carroll way and mystique onto the next generation, encouraging his coordinators to poach the best and the brightest, assume they will all be leaving for new jobs.
Would that version of Carroll necessitate a regime change?
Sadly, I’d still argue yes, in this era an offensive minded Head Coach appears the only way to move your team forward. The above combo with a Rattler or Daniels added in might get you to the next level, but the seats are hot across the league and unlike Shanahan and McVay – Carroll has to fight the stigma that he doesn’t groom Head Coaches (like Belichick)
I’d be open to giving it a go if Carroll has to stay
I just don’t see any scenario where Carroll’s actually willing to cede identity and ideological control, however bad he’s shown to be at controlling it
And that is the point, that is the version of Carroll we haven’t seen.
And my guess would be that he would rather retire or go back to the college game, rather than have to metamorphose himself into that type of coach.
Which is, unfortunately, why he needs to part ways with the Seahawks.
This X1000. I’m not the smartest football guy in the world, hell I’m not even the smartest guy in my own family but I am smart enough and trained in the field enough to understand the psychology and behavior of ego and Carroll’s is obvious and out front. It is in control of his actions and by extension in control of this franchise in large part because it’s been allowed to be.
I’m not ruling out that he can change, just that there is no evidence he will change.
I have to wonder, if PC stays thru his contract in 2025 and retires (heaven forbid), what would be the left to the next new owner and the next head coach? Would PC/JS really select a QB in the 2024 draft? On the one hand, having an exciting top rookie QB might be attractive to a new coach, but on the other hand, he may not use a system that favors that QB and want to pick his own?
One of the things with Pete is that his philosophies are in contention. On one hand he wants a defense that will give up short plays in favor of stopping big ones, and an offense that takes shots down the field. That generally leads to the other team executing more plays. On the other hand he has his magical “52 plays on offense and you likely win” number. That basically only works if the other team is prone to mess up, and good teams generally mess up less. It’s a formula to be a team that is just above average.
A separate point, but one I want to make clearer than I have in the past.
The Allen hires have all been out of a position of opportunity, rather than desperation.
Dennis Erickson was fine, but Holmgren was available. Holmgren was a legendary coach, but had stayed maybe one season too long, Mora was considered a steal, but really was a placeholder while Carroll was transitioning to the job, part of Mora’s complaints were that Carroll had his job early on.
Carroll’s tenure has been wildly successful, and had the NFL not changed the rules in him, I’d argue even more successful. I suspect Allen will move not out of necessity, but out of opportunity.
This is why the more I look at Ben Johnson the more I think he is the successor in waiting. He has rehabbed Jared Goff into a near elite QB, since 2021, the Lions have fielded a competent offense. I pulled a Rob and watched every offensive play of the lions from 2021 through the present. This is a special coach.
Now look at this timeline…2023 off-season is underway, Tepper and the Panthers have tipped their hand that Ben Johnson is their number one choice, Wild Card weekend happens – January 14 … 41 to 23. January 17, 2023 – Johnson’s agent announces that he is withdrawing from all interviews and will return as OC for another year in Detroit.
The other teams to lose that weekend: LAC, MIA, MIN, BAL, TB…only one of those was in for a change at HC, but I doubt LAC would have changed Johnson’s mind to wait out Staley.
The Seahawk’s position was unique, multiple draft picks, an established but aging head coach, but also incentive to delay firing/hiring. Johnson would have nothing to lose, and everything to gain by going back one more year, Seattle is still completing a reset that is going to be painful and needs to get salaries off the books. Seattle’s leverage exists only so long as it is the prettiest belle at the ball.
If Detroit makes a deep playoff run, and Seattle does not, I would not be shocked at all to hear of a Carroll retirement, or maybe a return to the college game to work with younger players (which he finds more fulfilling), and subsequently Ben Johnson being introduced as the new HC.
Now, tell me you wouldn’t be excited for a 2024 Seahawks squad led by Ben Johnson, with all new coordinators, having shed a ton of salary and getting right with the cap, looking forward to a camp competition between Geno Smith and Jayden Daniels (or your QB of choice). Only making the throwbacks permanent would make me happier.
Oh man this would be awesome if it happened. If you’re correct, I will strongly encourage you to purchase a reasonable level of lottery tix for about the following year or so.
Not locking it in, but there is a lot of smoke that would support Ben Johnson wanting to sit out a year and take the job next.
Forget for a moment that the team is obviously not viewing the Payton’s or Gruden’s or even Quinn’s as improvements.
Ben Johnson has a young family, Schneider raised his kids in King Co, so did Holmgren if memory serves. My friends in the area assure me that King Co and surrounding counties still are great places to raise a family even if Seattle has turned into a tent city downtown.
Allen publicly stated the team may not be sold for 10-20 years this off-season. It is a stable franchise with a dedicated fan base and solid history. The local press is chill and tends to respect the privacy of athletes and coaches.
Not only has Carroll not been extended, the team has not swiped the credit card beyond the 2024 season
There are already leaks about where Bienemy will end up, and others, but none re: Johnson. Except that any talks need to start at $15mil per season, know who makes $15 mil per season? PC. That is called getting in offers now (and some franchise being pissed and leaking that number so their fan base won’t revolt).
Ben Johnson when asked about head coaching name drops Lions DC Aaron Glenn as a better candidate than him (taking pages out of Andy Reid’s book already).
Johnson was big at Mobile this last offseason, I’ve read that the Seahawks brought everyone but the grounds crew to Mobile…
It is a bit more than a hunch, but it is a considered opinion, Johnson is as blue chip as they come, for a franchise that wants to build on a history of 3 HoF coaches, who would look better?
Yes please. Serve me a hot dish of that! I would suddenly have a little hope again.
What a refreshing way to view the management of the franchise under Allen. There’s a lot of Jodi hate but she’s been involved since day 1, her brother trusted her enough to leave the team in her hands, and apparently she helped convince Paul to buy the team in the first place. It makes sense she would operate under the same structure that they always had: the franchise has been incredibly successful. It was probably with her hand that we saw more of John Schneider last off-season than we have all combined off seasons past. Also makes sense as to why Pete seems so sentimental lately, the Eagles game had a sendoff kind of feel to it with him sticking around on the field after the game, soaking it all in. The team keeps it’s cards incredibly close to the chest though, so even if the new hire is Johnson we won’t know until it’s already done, who knows who the successor could be.
As much as I like Pete and his style. AKA pound the ball and play defense ALA Chuck Knox whom I followed to Seattle, the NFL has evolved, to my disapointment into a passing (PI penalties), high score game for the enjoyment of fans.😕
Unfortunatly, In see no major changes until organation is sold.
We do have the recievers to accompany this approach,although Lockett is getting a little long in the tooth.
Our largest problem is the OC, in my opinion. All throws are at the line or deep, which Geno does ok as long as he gets plenty of time (not often) where are the 3 step drop and throw. JSN and tight ends.
As far as QB goes, we do need to take a chance and hopefully hit on a young gun, we have offensive personnal to allow him to succeed, with the right OC.
We have many BIG holes to fill on D. LB and Safety primarily. I like Williams and hope we retain.
Witherspoon is a game changer and Ric will hopefully round back in form.
Go Hawks
Russell Wilson BENCHED!
More info here: https://www.nfl.com/news/broncos-benching-qb-russell-wilson-for-remainder-of-2023-to-preserve-financial-f
Makes sense.
still….ouch. it is what it is – but it’s sure a blow for the guy. thought he’d been mostly been playing fairly well this year.
He’ll be cut after the season. This is Derek Carr with the Raiders at the end of last season 2.0.
Payton should’ve held out for the Chargers job. Add Denver as another team that will be looking to draft a QB this offseason.
And btw, I’m guessing Payton will love Rattler. Can you imagine how excited he’d be to work with a QB taller than 5’10” and that has the other qualities that mark a guy for possible success? Seattle WILL have to trade up to get “their guy” imo. Will they? Color me skeptical.
Thing is though i’m not entirely convinced that Payton is a great coach, he had a good run with a talented QB but they won 1 championship together in a very long stretch, only made one superbowl. He has not yet shown that he can develop a qb beyond brees. Thus far in denver he hasn’t shown he can adapt to his personnel, it’s his way or the highway, and right now the biggest issue on that team is the defense. So getting rid of russ just gives him a scapegoat for the inadequate coaching job he’s done this year.
Good possibilities. We shall see
They’re doing it to avoid the potential injury guarantee from biting them in the salary cap butt next year.
*cough* Geno *cough*
Exactly. On the surface, shows how these 2 franchises view their starting QB and direction of the team.
If we make the playoffs, there’s NO WAY Geno isn’t back next season. I’m already resigned to having him start next year. They may cut him and renegotiate his deal to bring him back under a better cap hit but he’s back.
It’s hard to enjoy much schadenfreude right now, as we also shat the bed with our own trade and extension for Yikes McPeacock. Just glad we could recoup SOME value for Wilson.
Broncos country let’s ride THE BENCH
What are the odds Pete goes and signs Russ back on a cheaper deal if he’s cut? 10:1, 20:1?
Nil I would say
The next contract Russ should sign with Seattle should be the 1 day type so he can retire a seahawk.
It’s equally “Russ signing with Pete” and equally unlikely viewed from that aspect.
Excellent write up Rob!
Sadly, Pete will stay until the end of his contract. After we get bounced out of the playoff’s, big changes should be coming. This is what they should be-
1. We hire the very best Offense and Defense coordinators possible-the Offense of Coordinator will be groomed to take over when Pete is gone, assuming he has proven himself to be exceptional
2. Pete is no longer allowed to mettle in the Offense or Defense, EVER
3. When time outs are called and when the red flag is thrown-only the coordinators can do this
4. JS can take care of the drafting and low level trades, ONLY
5. The best cap management person is hired and will not allow big contracts for avg players-no more overpays, EVER
6. No more trades that involve 1st round, 2nd round or 3rd round picks, EVER
7. During the process of any trades, the incoming player must sign an extension BEFORE the trade is finalized
8. The roster is cleaned up by cutting most all of the expensive players. We already know who should be cut and who we should keep
What Rob said was chilling. The talent level on the Seahawks is similar to the Ravens. COACHING!!!!
Great article! Same old same old had proven to not work. Mismatches are not recognized and exploited. They should give Nathan Rourke a chance. Mature, good arm, mobile, smart, great leader. He lit up the CFL. So did Warren Moon and others who were great NFL QBs.
The best article I’ve read (and will perhaps read) on the state of the team and what they should do (but will they?) going forward. Well done, Sir! The fear, and it is a fear, is that sans Adams, they will run it back under Carroll for 2 more years, with perhaps a new OC and DC but the same ‘meh’ under PC’s hammer of predictable football.
As far as RW goes: I’m not surprised as I’ve watched most of Denver’s games. He got what he wanted in $$$ and a head coach, but he’s a ‘head’ case with a skill set that just isn’t gittin’ ‘er done anymore.
Thanks James
I’m all for trading firsts, because we need to trade up in 2024! Or trade back if things go horribly wrong.
LCH QBR:
1. Caleb
1a. Ewers (waiting for the Husky game, when most Seahawks fans see him play for the first time)
1c. Jayden Daniels – if Ewers doesn’t declare I’m inking in Daniels as the next QB off the board
2. Rattler – I’m not as concerned about everything everyone else seems to be concerned about – I want to see Rattler at the Senior Bowl and combine.
…
Waiting to see what is out there for round 4 and beyond in case of disaster.
Do not want list: McCarthy, Nix, Penix, Maye
Meant for Stuart. Reply fail.
Narrative is a funny thing. You say the Eagles are collapsing, and you’re not alone. They seem to believe it themselves. But I can say with equal confidence that their skid is only really “bad” if you think the Seahawks are crap, because the other two losses were against the Niners (which happens to the best of teams) and to the Cowboys in Dallas (which also happens to the best of teams). You also say the win against the Titans is weak because they’re bad. But another notable Hawks blogger can and did point out that Tennessee is a tough matchup at home, and even the mighty Ravens only managed a one score win there. You can say that DK is being used poorly and even bring data to the table that supports that and someone else can use these recent come from behind wins as proof that when we really needed to score, we fed DK like a true alpha dog and he delivered.
Not saying I disagree with you on anything you’re saying. My feelings are a little mixed on the recent play of the Hawks. I’m just pointing out how divergent the feelings are on even the fundamentals of how to tell the story for these Seahawks. I think the only thing everyone agrees on at this point is Jamal should be fine as a Hawk and the defensive scheme sucks wet ass.
Jon, this is a massive over-reach.
The Eagles weren’t ‘just’ beaten by Dallas and San Francisco. They were embarrassed. On Christmas Day, they almost blew a game against the hopeless Giants, who changed their QB at half-time. I also watched the Eagles against us. They were mostly awful, especially when trying to close out the game with a lead.
On top of this, they have fired their defensive coordinator and the fans are carrying pitchforks and torches to the stadium calling for the offensive coordinator to go. ‘Frank Reich’ is trending on Twitter constantly, because Eagles fans are demanding he return and replace the current OC.
None of my review of the Eagles is because I ‘think the Seahawks are crap’. Me calling them the ‘collapsing Eagles’ is fair because they do, in fact, appear to be collapsing.
I’m a bit tired of people telling me what I think/mean, rather than simply discussing my actual words.
Here’s what I literally said about the Titans in the article:
They can’t be pushed to one side because the Seahawks ‘just’ beat a Tennessee team missing a bunch of starters with nothing to play for. The end result might’ve been OK in the end but that Titans game summed everything up. It took far too long for the offense to click against a depleted opponent missing its entire secondary and their best defensive lineman. Defensively, they were bullied in the running game despite that likely being the whole focus during the week (it wasn’t going to be Ryan Tannehill’s deep-ball, was it?).
I called them a “depleted opponent” — a cast-iron fact. Their entire starting secondary was out. They IR’d Jeffrey Simmons before the game. Their O-line is decimated (and bad anyway). The quarterback had to miss the game. It is accurate to call them depleted.
I also questioned Seattle’s performance, as noted in the quote above, and detailed the issues I had specifically. It was obvious Tennessee would need to run the ball to succeed. The Texans did a great job handling the run the week before. We gave up 160+ yards, the fifth game in a row where we’ve given up 135+ yards vs the run. It also took us until the fourth quarter to start moving the ball on their backups in the secondary.
I did not say anything about it being a “weak” win. All of the points raised are indisputable.
I am really, really bored of people putting words in my mouth.
So you concede I have a point — then illustrate we are capable of feeding Metcalf and exploiting weaknesses but only do it at the end when the game is on the line.
This argues my point for me.
Here’s an idea — instead of waiting to feed Metcalf when you’re trailing and need a 90+ yard drive to win, do it earlier so you aren’t relying on a last minute 90+ yard drive.
Imagine that…
Hey Rob, I’m not here to argue with you or even disagree with you on any of these points. I’m just pointing out that we’re in a very strange place narratively with this team and it’s striking to me that lots of people writing about the Seahawks whose opinions I respect can read the same facts on the ground so differently.
No issue with that Jon
But I’d rather people debate what I’ve actually written, not assert other things
Not sure if you are referring to me, but you might re-read the article and avoid cherry-picking.
My issue with PC returning is 2 fold, first that his message has grown stale and given the amount of time since the team has been a true contender that younger players have no real reason to buy into him being able to get the most out of the talent on the team, secondly and maybe even more importantly he’s out of touch with the young and up a coming coaches, he doesn’t share a social circle with any of them, his beliefs are if not impractical certainly are antiquated and don’t afford the opportunity for coaches to really shine. If the defense looks good, it’s Carrol credit, if the offense turns over the ball they get publicly humiliated and told to never take a chance at being great. Carrol isn’t out having beers with the great new minds in the league, isn’t sharing a coaching tree with anyone having success in the league. We get retread coaches, or guys that nobody else was interested in and it’s just not good enough.
I love the guy, and he’ll be a hero in Seattle forever given he doesn’t over stay his welcome bye dragging the team thru a couple more years of mediocrity. Even in my own career I can say it was easier to find good help 20 years ago when I knew who had talent and it wasn’t just throwing darts at a board.
Yes, PC can still coach and recognize talent buuuut none of the new generation elite would ever dream of being his underling. I firmly believe that getting rid of Wilson first was absolutely necessary but the 2nd step of moving on from PC is every bit as important to turn the page. We’ve been trying to run it back over a decade now and for close to that long the right answer has been to start new. Cut the fat, lose the underperforming and over paid, and throw an obscene amount of money at getting a fresh new approach. Coaches don’t count against salary cap, so offer an absolute bag to get PFF Bobby. A good coach is worth more than a good QB so 50 million annually should be the baseline for an elite coach.
Parse as you will.
Don’t know why they need to be coy about it when Denver is out there telling the world it’s over with Wilson.
Another side effect of two scraping wins and everything is wonderful.
The press gets playful, snarky Pete.
Please God no
because seattle respects it’s players more than payton respects his. It may be over for Jamal, but pete is who he is right or wrong, they don’t throw guys under the bus. It’s not their style.
I will be appearing on VSIN Primetime today at 4:30pm PT
You can listen live here https://www.vsin.com/listen-now/
2024 Draft?
Or Seahawks playoff odds?
Or both?
Seahawks vs Steelers chat
Wouldn’t it be the ironic if the only way for Pete to step away from the team is if JS brings back RW? Won’t happen, but I think most realistic fans would take a one year deal (multi-year deal dressed up as a one year deal) with RW if they draft a QB and it forces Pete out the door.
The last person who’d want to bring Mark Rodgers back into his world is John Schneider
I remember how much John Clayton absolutely despised Mark Rosgers. It makes me smile when seeing Russ not being able to live up to Mark Rodger’s huge contract extension. Seahawks sold their RW Stock at a perfect time.
That being said, once Russ is done playing, which seems sooner rather than later, I hope he is immediately placed into the Seahawks Ring of Honor and acknowledged for his immense contributions to the Seahawks Organization.
I do agree with most of the mian article.
But I don’t think its very fair to categorize this team as a 7,8,9,10 win team.
They are very likely to end up a 9 or 10 win team. So If you are giving them 2 to the down side they should be given 2 to the upside.
Saying they are between a 7 and 12 win team makes more sense or even 7.5-11.5 You can’t only give them the downside.
They almost beat the Bengals, Rams 2nd game, and Cowboys.
They won some close games, but they also lost some close games.
Having three really good wr’s I feel like we always have a shot. Keeping Adams out, or barely playing is a key. I like the secondary without him.
I don’t have to give them two games in the slightest.
Carroll’s record without a star quarterback in Seattle:
7-9
7-9
9-8
8-7
I don’t have to say they are a seven to 12 win team.
They need to show they are a 12 win team to achieve that. They haven’t come close to showing that, as the points in the article demonstrate.
Great article Rob. I feel this part is especially important.
“This isn’t the first time this staff led by this coach have been upfront about an issue that needs to be fixed and yet they’ve failed to do anything about it. It feels like the run from 2019-2021 where the pass rush was eternally talked about, never sufficiently addressed and it cost the team opportunities to be a serious threat.”
Another year of Pete will be the same. Pete has finally aged out and he no longer resonates with his players. Add to that the rules changes made in the last 5 years in the NFL and the bruising style of football we used to play is not even a possibility anymore. For these reasons you have finally convinced me we need an offensive minded HC. We have tools on offense. It will be interesting to see what someone new can do with them. JS please draft a QB and let’s see what happens. I would rather be 7-10 with an exciting young team than 10-7 knowing I will be just good enough to make the playoffs, get bounced and end up drafting mediocre players in the middle of the draft forever.
Rob not sure why there is any push back on what you have been saying. It has never been more clear in my all my years as a Hawks fan as to what this team is and needs.
They are an average team with a legendary HC whose time is up and they have no long term answer at QB.
They will be hoovering around 9/8 or 8/9 till they change the coaching staff and find a long term answer at QB. To be honest I have been saying the exact same thing since 2021.
Simple 3 Step Plan
-New Coaching Staff
-Draft QB until you hit on one
-Allocate resources to OL/D not Safety, LB, RB
That is what is giving me headaches: SIMPLE 3 step plan.
Bring in young, talented coaches (or head coach).
FINALLY get a young, talented, high-ceiling quarterback in the draft.
Move the resources to literally what everyone else is doing. Get young, mad, and hungry.
Yes, I understand that it isn’t that easy. But why are we the only team in the NFL that has shirked all three and not even tried those routes? For years? That is the recipe to success, a true contention window.
The Seahawks have won two games, emboldening people to try and quash anything not 100% positive
It’s as simple as that
The problem in todays game is making it through a full season with enough of your key roster in tact to still compete come playoff time.
Half the league is on backup QBs. The only way those teams have a chance is many offensive weapons and a good defense.
Young, Stroud, Richardson and Levis have all been injured this season. All 4 top picks have missed time due to injury. Think about that for a second. You mortgage the future, get you guy, and he misses a quarter of the season. You’re in the same boat, relying on the rest of your team to hold you up.
You’re still better off having a solid team. I think it makes way more sense to be patient, pay less, get more.
Our OL is cheap because its mostly rookie contracts, we have invested a lot in it in terms of draft picks.
Our DL has seen a big investment as well.
It’s a good job the Chiefs didn’t think ‘nah, let’s not move up’ otherwise they wouldn’t have gone to three Super Bowls, winning two…
Trading up for a QB is perfectly viable and can be franchise changing if done properly. It’s nothing to fear either, provided you have a GM with a track record. We do.
The Chiefs paid a reasonable price at the perfect time.
They were already a top 5 O and top 10 D in back to back years with a fierce DL, All-Pro TE, CB and Safety with a top 5 OL and Tyreek Hill and a solid vet QB to run the team and give Mahomes time.
I am PRO QBOTF, because this is the right time, but it needs to be a reasonable price.
Mortgaging the future like the Panthers is silly. They have no weapons, a mediocre defense and no one to block for Young. They’re going to be bad for years unless they can swing some killer FA signings.
The Lions, Jets and Browns did the same thing time and time again and it never worked.
The Seahawks are right on the edge of being good enough and the cap structure is clear they are setup to draft a QB in 2024 or 2025 and can be patiently opportunistic.
Two 1sts and a 3rd is the most I’d pay to move up, and only because I believe they will be late round picks.
The Panthers didn’t ‘mortgage’ their future.
It looks worse because they have failed this year and will give another team the #1 pick
But the actually trade compensation was not problematic at all. If they hadn’t bungled their coaching hire and had actually taken the real QB1 (Stroud) nobody would bat an eye lid.
Case in point, the Texans also traded up to ensure they got Stroud.
Trading up is fine, it won’t cripple Seattle or most other teams.
Giving up 5, technically 6 top level talents/picks isn’t mortgaging the future?
They were basement dwellers and had an awful OL and mediocre defense, and then sold all their best offensive weapons.
The Panthers gave up:
-McCaffrey
-a late round 2nd (from McCaffrey trade)
-an already top 10 pick
-a future likely top 10 pick (again 3/4 years only 5 wins, it was highly probable)
-DJ Moore (mr 1000yds)
-and a 2025 2nd (I thought it was 2024, so this is less bad)
Houston used their original pick on Stroud, they also had a top 5 OL. They traded up for Will Anderson.
Also HOU has drafted 9 times in the 1st to 3rd rounds in past two drafts. Carolina has just 11 total picks in that time. CAR have only 6 picks in 2024
They essentially have to rely on FA, but their OL jumps to top 5 in cost next year, so either big dead cap to replace, or really need a turnaround from a consistently bad unit.
They didn’t give up McCaffrey in this deal. They dealt him regardless, in October, months before they knew if they’d even have to move up for a QB. They had a 1-5 record when they dealt him and it was merely the process of the early stages of a reset. The only reason they had to move up in the end is because they won five of their last eight games, thanks to an improbable run under Steve Wilks that nobody saw coming. They moved McCaffrey because it saved money, allowed them to acquire stock and, although they’d never admit it, increased their chances of being in a position to select a QB by weakening the roster. Wilks and the team shifted the dynamic. So it’s wrong to say ‘they gave up McCaffrey’ in the deal for Bryce Young. That was a separate transaction and it just so happens one of the acquired picks was used in the trade.
The actual terms of the trade were this:
They swapped the top pick for the 9th overall pick in 2023 (their native pick which they would’ve used anyway).
They gave up the following to do this:
2024 first round pick
#61 pick in 2023
2025 second rounder
D.J. Moore
It’s a highly expensive trade, most definitely, made worse by the fact they’ve been so bad this year they’re going to give the Bears the top pick (something I’d suggest wasn’t that expected 12 months ago, when they finished the year as strongly as they did). But nothing has been ‘mortgaged’ here. This is an overly used phrase. If Young can’t turn things around they’ll simply move on in the next two years as many other teams have done and have another go. If it works out, it’ll be viewed as a snip for a great QB.
The phrase ‘mortgaging their future’ implies they’ll be ruined for years to come. In reality, it’ll be viewed as a crap, costly trade, a bad decision not to select Stroud instead and they’ll get hammered until they make things right. But their future won’t be mortgaged, they’ll have ample opportunity to turn things around and make amends.
As multiple people have pointed out already, they traded up to ensure they could get the QB. It might’ve been a move to get both — but the deal was struck to ensure nobody else got in on Stroud and it was tactically brilliant.
Why? If the Texans had taken Anderson at #2, any of the other QB-needy team could have called the Cardinals to make a deal to move up to #3. The potential to be outbid in that instance would’ve been a serious risk. A bidding was for QB2 was extremely plausible, nobody was creating a bidding war for Anderson. This is especially the case given the Texans had the #12 pick and Arizona could’ve dealt with Seattle (#5), Las Vegas (#6) or Atlanta (#7) and got the same deal, picks higher than the Texans were offering. Or, another team could’ve outbid Houston beyond the #12 pick. Or maybe nobody would’ve jumped in? Either way, Houston made the right decision to tilt the odds in their favour. They eliminated the possibility of being out-bid by taking Stroud at #2 and then moving up for Anderson.
It was a genius move by Houston — stomping cold the trade market and then exploiting it. Now Arizona couldn’t take any calls from QB needy teams. The only offer in town was from the Texans, who were in an unnatural position picking right in front of Arizona to secure the QB, then get the guy who was top of their board after manipulating the market in their favour.
But they were moving up, no two ways about it, to ensure that Stroud was a Texan and not playing somewhere else.
Serious question: Does Geno Smith carry any trade value? His contract, while easy for us to get out of this offseason if the FO is so inclined, is less than most “big name” QBs earn. He’s a tick over average but not a franchise guy. If the Seahawks want to move on and draft a QB but don’t want to show their hand by cutting Geno before March, could they opt to retain him with the intent to trade him for draft capital? Would trading him saddle the team with too much dead cap, negating the benefit?
I’m feeling that Pete won’t move on from a safety blanket in Geno until Geno is either: 1) injured, 2) showing massive signs of regression or 3) expendable due to a much better option having presented itself at reasonable cost. I doubt that happens, but still…. could Geno be a trade chip to a team that wants improvement at QB at a lesser cost than FA would likely demand? *looks directly at the Atlanta Falcons*
They’d pick up only $4.2m in cap benefit for 2024 if they went that route. $2.2m if he does indeed earn that $2m playoffs/80% escalator.
But he’d be off the books for 2025 and have a draft pick to show for it, so //shrug.
The acquiring team would have him for
2024 $12.7m salary + $200k workout bonus = all $12.9m virtually guaranteed for his age 34 year
2025 $14.8m salary + $10m roster bonus + $200k workout bonus = none of it ($25m cap) would be guaranteed for his age 35 year
I would not get too excited thinking that there’s a big market for him.
I would call the Broncos to see what they would offer, but i would not expect anything, maybe a third day pick?
Between Earl Thomas, Russ and getting a third for moving up 25 spots in the third I would imagine the Broncos have blocked the Seahawks’ number.
A third round pick for Geno and Jamal Adams sounds like a sweet deal to me.
I agree that the Broncos should not accept phone calls from 425 or 206 areas codes
Plus the trade up for Brock Osweiler. My wife was on the phone with her sister and her brother-in-law (Broncos fan) took the phone to ask what they just traded for.
so funny :))
Meh. The Seahawks walked away with Germain Ifedi and Nick Vannett.
Not sure anyone won that trade.
I’ve addressed this year in other comments, so I’ll just focus on the one thing you’ve been saying for weeks.
This idea you have of expensive or unrivalled investment in defense is so weird.
The contracts are max flexibility, with options for 2024 out, or 2025. It’s fantastic cap management.
-All the 2023 FAs have a 2024 out
-Nwosu is about the only player signed long term and he’s only 16-25th positional salary depending on LB or EDGE
-We’ve also spent more draft picks on O than D in top rounds and overall
-99% or ~$22m in dead cap is off the books in 2024
The cap tells us a story, and that story is short-term flexibility. Path 1 is build on a good thing. Path 2 is roster, coaching or scheme changes.
This talk about the safeties being $50m blah blah is irrelevant, those are backloaded contracts that literally every team has eventually. For comparison, the 49ers have 9 players that go from $72m to $199m in cap in 2024, that’s 83% of the ENTIRE cap in 9 players. That doesn’t even include Bosa or Greenlaw, add them and its 91% of the cap in 11 players (5Off, 6Def)
We have plenty of cap to work with in 2024, and it opens up further in 2025.
Based on this, we can change the coaches or adjust the roster strategy without much problem. Then we can take advantage of opportunities in draft and FA instead of trying to force it.
There’s nothing remotely ‘weird’ about it.
Three second round picks on pass rushers, big contract extension to Nwosu, big free agent deal for Dre’Mont Jones, bringing back Jarrad Reed, spending a R2 on a 10-game rental of Leonard Williams, first round pick on Jordyn Brooks, bringing back Wagner, top-five pick at cornerback, massive salaries at safety plus the major Jamal Adams trade.
This is an extremely significant resource spend.
No it isn’t. When you are committed to that much at a non-premium position, with major dead money connected to both contracts for next year, this isn’t irrelevant. It warrants serious focus about how they’re spending and investing their money and which positions they are choosing to pump resource into. It’s even more relevant when the investment is squandered by the performance of the players in question.
And we all know Jamal is about as worthless of an investment as there has been in team history!
*Three second round picks on pass rushers, big contract extension to Nwosu, big free agent deal for Dre’Mont Jones, bringing back Jarrad Reed, spending a R2 on a 10-game rental of Leonard Williams, first round pick on Jordyn Brooks, bringing back Wagner, top-five pick at cornerback, massive salaries at safety plus the major Jamal Adams trade.
This is incredible resource spend.
*
-All the 2023 FAs have a 2024 out
-Nwosu is about the only player signed long term and he’s only 16-25th in positional salary depending on LB or EDGE
-We’ve spent more draft picks on O than D in top rounds and overall (see below)
-You have to fill the roster to play football
-Offense outspends defense $89m to $81.5m (full roster spend)
HAWKS COMPARE TO BENGALS and VIKINGS- I picked randomly
Last 4 Drafts (2020-2023)
TOTAL PICKS: 31 CIN vs 42 MIN vs 30 SEA
OFF: 12 CIN vs 20 MIN vs 17 SEA
DEF: 17 CIN vs 22MIN vs 13 SEA
SPT: 2 CIN
SEA spent less overall and proportionally on defense comparatively.
DEF SLOTS:
CIN (1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 4th, 5th, 5th, 7th, 7th, 7th, 7th)
SEA (1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 4th, 4th, 5th, 5th, 5th, 5th, 6th)
MIN (1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 4th, 4th, 4th, 4th, 4th, 5th, 5th, 5th, 6th, 6th, 7th, 7th)
SEA spent same amount of 1st, one more 2nd but substantially fewer 3rds
BENGALS vs HAWKS
CIN 5x DE (1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th)
SEA 6x DE (2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 5th, 5th, 5th) *Taylor is listed as an OLB on roster, but as a DE in draft
MIN 3x DE (4th, 4th, 7th)
CIN 1x DT (4th)
SEA 1x DT (4th)
MIN 5x DT/DL (3rd, 4th, 5th, 5th, 6th)
CIN 5x LB (3rd, 3rd, 4th, 7th, 7th)
SEA 1x LB (1st)
MIN 3x LB (3rd, 3rd, 4th)
CIN 6x DB (1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th)
SEA 5x DB (1st, 4th, 4th, 5th, 6th)
MIN 11x DB (1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th)
The positional bias usually coincides with roster turnover, but even still, it’s not particularly out of line and it’s in those premium areas you keep talking about.
********
This talk about the safeties being $50m blah blah is irrelevant
No it isn’t. When you are committed to that much at a non-premium position, with major dead money connected to both contracts for next year, this isn’t irrelevant. It warrants serious focus about how they’re spending and investing their money and which positions they are choosing to pump resource into. It’s even more relevant when the investment is squandered by the performance of the players in question.
********
You’re just flat-out wrong Rob, on every level imaginable when it comes to the cap stuff.
Your entire argument hinges on hindsight outcomes and because you insist on pulling Safety out from Secondary. It also completely disregards where the Elite veteran players on the roster are or what year in their contract they are. You can literally scan the positional cap numbers and instantly tell where the Elite or Vets are on every roster because the numbers spike.
*All numbers from spotrac*
TOP SECONDARY spend full roster
BUF is $52.9m
DAL is $44.5m
SEA is $38.9m
DEN is 36.8m
NYJ is 36.2m
NE is 34.2m
BAL is 33.8m
AVG is $29.2m
This is as much of a leading indicator of success as DL or OL spending.
TOP 10 OL spend full roster in playoffs
DET, BAL
TOP 10 DL spend full roster in playoffs
KC, SF, BUF, DAL
Top 10 OL & DL spend full roster
IND $50.5m OL & $43m DL
CIN $45.1m OL & $59.1m DL
ATL $50.1m OL & $41.3m DL
BOTTOM 10 OL & DL spend full roster
TB $19.3m OL & $16.5m DL
TEN $18.8m OL & $21.1m DL
MIN $26.0m OL & $24.3m DL
SEA $20.2m OL & $26.1m DL (does not include Darrel Taylor or Nwosu, they are listed as LBs)
That’s almost a $40m difference in cap spend, and yet the performance outcome is nearly identical.
Hell, only 4 out of the Top 10 in QB spend are even good teams.
BACKLOADED CONTRACTS:
-Literally EVERY team has them and they always spike. This is where you cut them and eat dead money or restructure.
-91% of the 49ers cap is taken up by 11 players next year when their back-loaded contracts hit
-Cutting Adams alone drops us below the league average in both Secondary spending AND total defense spending
ALLOCATION HISTORY
-We spent around 20% of our cap on the LOB 2015 secondary for 10 players
-We’re currently sitting at approximately 17% of cap on secondary for 9 players
-Random other team with high spend – 2021 Bengals spent 22% for 14 players (you know their SB year)
DEAD MONEY
-we’re 23rd (as in low) in the league with $22m, 99% of which is gone next year.
-Top 10 in dead cap this year were all $50-82m, the average was $37m
-Even if we cut both Adams and Diggs that’s only $21m in dead cap
Lastly, you gotta make up your mind, is investing in DL “expensive” or the “premium position” you want capital allocated.
A-ok you’ve done a lot of research here and I can appreciate that.
But I am not certain you’ve presented your points well nor taken all the real investments in the defense as Rob has stated into account.
I don’t have time to go point by point, but I’d just like to make a few observations.
I’m not going to track them all but I think you’re just counting “pure draft picks spent” and skipping picks traded to acquire defensive players. Jamal Adams cost 2 firsts and a 3rd (got a 4th back). Darrel Taylor cost an extra third round pick to move up in 2020 to take him. The Seahawks converted a franchise QB and $26m dead cap into a package that included Boye Mafe, Devon Witherspoon, Derrick Hall and Shelby Harris.
The 2nd round pick in 2024 in exchange for only paying Leonard Williams league average instead of the $10m remaining on his contract is also very much in play here.
Interestingly, the Seahawks were set to have a $52m spend on secondary this year, right with Buffalo as highest in the league. Except – the Seahawks restructured about $14m and pushed it to 2024.
So now the Seahawks – using your metric – have $68m committed to the secondary in 2024. And only $11m of that is in CBs.
You do understand that Diggs and Adams comprise 19.4% of the projected cap next year just by themselves right?
Also, that both the 2015 Seahawks and the 2021 Bengals you point to had something majorly in common? That they both only spent about 4-5% of their cap on their franchise quarterback, right? RW was the top-rated passer in the NFL that year and had 34 TDs / 8 INTs. Joe Burrow led the NFL with a 70.4% completion rate and had 34 TDs/14 INTs that year.
And that Geno Smith is going to count more than those two QBs in those years combined and then some at 12.6% of the cap next year? Coming off a season of (so far) nearly half their production at 64.8% comp and 17TD/9INT?
Context matters greatly.
Not sure how dead money is to be used as a metric of defensive investment in this discussion. Can you clarify?
No. It’s $31m in dead cap. Guessing you’re looking at Post June1-ing Adams and have neglected to include the 2025 $10m dead cap.
Thanks Cha.
And for what it’s worth, when A-OK said I was ‘flat out wrong’ regarding the spending at safety, there’s nothing remotely wrong about:
— Factually pointing out how much two players are on the books for next year
— Factually pointing out how much it’ll cost to part with both players in 2024
— Noting safety isn’t a premium position
You can’t call facts ‘wrong’.
His final point on ‘make up your mind’ on DL resource spend also doesn’t make sense. There’s nothing wrong with pointing out how much has factually been spent on the DL in terms of picks/money while also preferring they stop spending massive money on safety contracts/spending premier draft stock on safety/linebacker and spend it instead on the trenches (both sides of the ball).
I’m not dismissing the rest, I’m just focusing on keeping my comment shorter.
****
“You do understand that Diggs and Adams comprise 19.4% of the projected cap next year just by themselves right?”
****
You’re taking numbers at face value, that is not how the NFL cap management system works. A portion of future money is imaginary money, or unrealized, because NFL contracts are not fully guaranteed.
Backloading a contract is simply kicking the can. You plan your can kicking around periods of time where you can exit. Hopefully, things go well and you don’t have to exit early and eat substantial dead money. Thats risk management.
It’s a requirement to field a team today, it’s not a requirement to pay a contract in the future.
Every single NFL team has contracts that look like Adams’. He’s only 87th in AAV.
91% of 49ers cap is spent already on 11 players. Guess they won’t be fielding a team in 2024? Or maybe it’s totally normal to have massive contracts on your elite players regardless of their position.
****
No. It’s $31m in dead cap. Guessing you’re looking at Post June1-ing Adams and have neglected to include the 2025 $10m dead cap.
****
I didn’t neglect to include it, I just ignored it because I’m not talking about 2025. It’s a $21m dead cap for 2024. The savings after replacement is likely around $20-24m
I might be wrong, but I don’t think very many teams have contracts like Adams: a SAFETY earning that much money. Looking at 2024, we have the #1 and #3 highest cap number for the position, with Jamal EASILY winning that.
No one else has contracts like that: such an overpayment at a position with such little value. Can’t treat everyone all the same, context matters.
And you also don’t get to exclude the $10 mil for 2025 just because you don’t want to, still dead cap money to account for.
If there is one person that I am not arguing the salary cap with, it’s Curtis. I don’t want to prop anyone up on a pedestal, but if Curtis says it, it’s highly likely that it is right.
@BK26
***No one else has contracts like that: such an overpayment at a position with such little value. Can’t treat everyone all the same, context matters.
***
Firstly, Adams is 3rd highest AAV, and Diggs 10th, so there are definitely other teams paying.
It only sounds bad if you disclude S from Secondary, and disregard how contract structuring works and why their cap hits jump so much in 2024.
The PC defense has ALWAYS placed importance on safeties, because it is the cornerstone of his two philosophies
– dont get beat deep
– play physical (make em hear footsteps)
You can argue its outdated, you can argue you don’t like it. Both are fine, but thats not misallocation of resources, thats just a disagreement on strategy.
Also, we can consider the fact that we have rookie contracts at CB, so they could balance it with expensive safeties.
***
And you also don’t get to exclude the $10 mil for 2025 just because you don’t want to, still dead cap money to account for.
****
It doesn’t count on 2024 so it’s not relevant to the discussion of 2024. If I were talking about 2025 ni detail, I would have to include it.
It’s a misallocation of resources. That can’t be argued. Over the Cap has us accounted for $57,227,866 for safeties in 2024. Next closest team is $33,967,750. That is getting too close to double the cost. For safety. That is the very definition of a waste of resources.
By your logic, if they paid both Adams and Diggs $50 mil per year EACH, that wouldn’t be a waste of resources, just the team having a different strategy than anyone else.
There is a positional value. You don’t just pay the long snapper staring OT money just because you have a rookie center.
This is turning into a weird debate….
***
It’s a misallocation of resources. That can’t be argued.
Over the Cap has us accounted for $57,227,866 for safeties in 2024.
***
They’re called projections because they are not yet real.
NFL contracts have a guaranteed and non-guaranteed portion in most cases.
These contracts are backloaded contracts, you pay off the guaranteed money (dead cap) early, and enjoy a low cap hit. You’re kicking the can.
Then when you reach the back, the cap hit jumps substantially, but it costs you significantly less to cut a player. You would also restructure/extend if playing well.
Cheap cap hit early + cheap cap casualty later = financial flexibility
It is not ‘imaginary money’.
The Seahawks have created the situation cha outlined. We only have to go on Over the Cap or Spotrac to see, factually, how much they are fully on the books for and how much it’d cost to get out of the contracts.
You’re making out like cha or I are saying, “The Seahawks definitely have to pay $50m for two players and that’s that.” No. Nobody has ever done that. We have stated, clearly and repeatedly, how much they the pair are due, how much it costs to cut them and how you can cut them. The facts.
I haven’t written a single article about their combined cap hits for 2024 without also noting how much they’d save and how much dead money they’d take on to cut both. You’re being dishonest implying we haven’t done that, or by suggesting we haven’t got a full grasp of the options.
Nobody has suggested they don’t. It still doesn’t prevent us criticising the amount of investment at safety (salary + the trade for Adams), the situation for next year, the pushing money into 2024 when many of us think they should’ve cut bait this year, the fact it’ll cost them more to cut Diggs & Adams than it’ll cost the Browns in cap space for Myles Garrett next year, or anything else.
Again, at no point have cha or I or anyone else implied what they’ve done with Adams is unique to the Seahawks. That is irrelevant. The point is whether they were right to do it and the implications specifically to the Seahawks of them doing it with Jamal Adams.
11 quality players providing value.
Which is the point.
Seattle is spending an eye-watering amount of money on players who are not providing anywhere close to value and most certainly aren’t elite.
I’m not being funny but you don’t seem to actually understand anything we’ve been discussing and critiquing over the last few months.
****
It is not ‘imaginary money’.
****
What else do you call future money that can be cancelled and never paid and thus technically never existed?
***Nobody has suggested they don’t. It still doesn’t prevent us criticising the amount of investment at safety (salary + the trade for Adams), the situation for next year, the pushing money into 2024 when many of us think they should’ve cut bait this year, the fact it’ll cost them more to cut Diggs & Adams than it’ll cost the Browns in cap space for Myles Garrett next year, or anything else.
***
Cool, let me know when we get the 1st pick in the draft, and can pick up a generational DE.
Myles Garrett is carrying a $50m dead cap which is why his cap hit is so low. That’s literally the point of backloaded contracts and void years.
$20m in dead cap is low, and even if we cut others, we’d still only be at or below this year’s NFL average and that’s with cleaning house.
Jamal was a sunk cost, cutting him last year would have yielded a negative return. 2024 was his structured “out”.
Hence, all the 1+1yr FA contracts we signed to fill holes on defense. We had to try with Adams, maybe he could turn it around and the idea would work.
It didn’t. But because of our limited investment (short term) and intelligent structuring, we have a lot of financial and roster flexibility.
The more I think about it, the more I think the Leo Williams trade is even more telling when combined with the short-term nature of our entire roster.
***
Again, at no point have cha or I or anyone else implied what they’ve done with Adams is unique to the Seahawks. That is irrelevant. The point is whether they were right to do it and the implications specifically to the Seahawks of them doing it with Jamal Adams.
***
You are though, you’re saying $50m on safeties!?? And portraying the situation as wild and crazy.
Also, suggesting they aren’t “premium” positions. Apparently the secondary doesn’t matter in a pass-heavy league?
Premium is about talent and production, not position.
You sign players on projections.
You cut players on hindsight.
You’re just being ignorant at this point to what we’re saying to you. As I said in my last reply, in no article have I ever written ‘the Seahawks MUST pay $50m for Adams and Diggs in 2024’. On every occasion I’ve written about their 2024 cap hit, I have also included how much dead money is attached to contracts, what the cut options are, the full picture. It is still perfectly reasonable to question how on earth the Seahawks have got themselves in a position where any scenario, cut or keep, involves a huge resource spend.
I’m not going to allow you to keep pedalling this false idea that we haven’t discussed every angle on this when we have, or that we don’t know the difference between cap hits and contract value. Every single time we mention these two players, we detail the cap saving for cutting them in detail. It’s perfectly valid to point out how much they are currently on the books for and note that it is eye-watering, while also discussing the savings and actual cost (which is still eye-watering) to move on from them.
Complete strawman.
I never said anything about acquiring a Myles Garrett player. You are just showing yourself up now. I clearly said it will cost more to cut Adams & Diggs than it’ll cost the Browns in cap space for Myles Garrett next year. It’s a comparison about the expense of the two safeties if they depart, to illustrate the financial penalty coming in 2024 if they decide to move on from Adams & Diggs. I’ve said this in articles and on the radio and it rings true — it will cost the Seahawks more to pay Adams & Diggs to go and play somewhere else in 2024, than it’ll cost the Browns to pay Myles Garrett for his 2024 effort. This is simply a good way to show how expensive cutting each player will be, in part because they pushed money into 2024.
I think we’re getting to the end of this conversation now if you’re going to go down this road.
Because it is. And it’ll cost millions in 2024 and 2025 to move on from it.
I’ll say it again. We always acknowledge the cap hit, how much it’ll cost to cut them and what the cutting options are.
In every instance it is preposterous the situation the Seahawks have got themselves in with these two players. $48m in cap hits next year — preposterous. $27.5m cost to cut them both and move on — preposterous. It’s a terrible use of resources, whether they stay or go.
Nobody thinks safety is a premium position in the league.
Nobody thinks Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs are premium players in the league.
We’ve reached the end of this now. In future, don’t try too hard to disagree for the sake of it because frankly, this has been a really terrible attempt to try and make an argument stick that cha and I don’t have a clue what we’re talking about.
Excellent job of clarifying everything Curtis.
Live on VSIN at half past the hour
You can listen here https://www.vsin.com/listen-now/
I’m increasingly concerned about missing out on a draftable QB – stacking meaningless regular wins combined with other teams benching starters. I’m resolved to taking an another linebacker with out playoff blowout loss pick. Cheers.
Great article Rob. The negative responses to your comments baffle me. It seemed like constructive criticism to me.
Whenever the Seahawks win a couple of games, the same thing happens. The trolls return, sending me abuse. And others feel emboldened to start trying to paint the arguments as unreasonable, as we’ve seen, by resorting to strawman counters and putting words in my mouth.