I’ve just finished putting together an updated mock draft (for the first time this will include two rounds). Expect to see it live on Monday.
Here are some preview notes before the big reveal…
— After watching the day three practise footage from the Senior Bowl (see above) it seems clear that Nick Martin (C, Notre Dame) was the best offensive lineman in Mobile. He could easily be a top-40 pick and could go in the first round. That will be represented in the mock draft tomorrow. The only key difference between Nick and Zack Martin is footwork/quickness. That’s why Zack was a left tackle in college and Nick played center. That’s pretty much it between the two. Like Zack, Nick can start immediately and should enjoy a long, successful NFL career. It’s close between Nick Martin and Shon Coleman for the most underrated player in this class.
— There isn’t another player like Noah Spence (DE, Eastern Kentucky) in this draft class and for that reason he could go in the top-15. There’s even a chance he makes it into the top-10. Teams love quick-twitch pass-rushers who can beat a tackle in many different ways. Spence wins with speed off the edge, change of direction, speed-to-power, excellent hand use and he explodes to the ball carrier. Vic Beasley was the #8 overall pick a year ago and there’s no reason why Spence can’t also go in that range. He just needs to reassure teams he’s a changed man after his departure from Ohio State. Someone will take a chance on him.
— The receivers in this class might suffer a fall — with none going in the top-20. There are some good wide-outs available but a mix of different needs and a large number of premium players at OT, DL and CB could mean only three go in the first round. Who could be the first receiver off the board? Notre Dame’s Will Fuller is in with a shout due to his electrifying downfield speed and excellent character. Baylor’s Corey Coleman is also a big-time playmaker with a fantastic athletic profile. They might jump ahead of Ole Miss’ reliable and less athletic Laquon Treadwell.
— Increasingly I think we’ll see the top three quarterbacks go in the top-10. Cleveland at #2 are definitely going to take one. They’ll have their pick of the bunch unless Tennessee finds a willing trade partner. San Diego and Dallas should consider ‘heir apparent’ picks for Philip Rivers and Tony Romo. There’s also a chance Los Angeles and Philadelphia look to trade up. Paxton Lynch, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff all have their pro’s and cons — but the drop off once they leave the board is significant. In my latest mock all three were off the board in the top-10 — Lynch to the Browns, Wentz to Dallas and Goff to the Eagles.
— In tomorrow’s projection, five offensive tackles were off the board before Seattle’s pick at #26 — Tunsil, Decker, Stanley, Conklin and Coleman (in that order). It’s not an unrealistic scenario. The only thing preventing Shon Coleman from being an established top-15 talent is his age (24) and the need for teams to do a thorough medical check following his successful fight against cancer. Even if Russell Okung departs in free agency, the Seahawks don’t need to force this need. There is some depth to this offensive tackle class. As bad as Texas Tech’s Le’Raven Clark looked in Mobile (and when I say bad, I mean horrendous) — the Seahawks have shown a willingness to draft raw size ideals and coach them up. If they’re willing to take a defensive lineman and turn him into a starting right guard or a tight end and turn him into a starting tackle — there’s every chance they back themselves to take Clark in the middle or later rounds with his ideal size, frame and length (36 inch arms) and try to coach him into a starting NFL left or right tackle.
— The big challenge the Seahawks might face is finding a left guard in this class. They have a size ideal at the position — they want ‘massive’. They have consistently used 325lbs, tall and long offensive linemen at left guard. It’s unlikely they’re going to go away from that now. The problem is, there aren’t even many tackle converts that could kick inside and fill that need. It could push them to look at outside free agents to compete with Justin Britt in camp. Alternatively they could draft someone like Arkansas’ Sebastien Tretola and accept his lack of length (30.5 inch arms) for the sake of adding a gritty, physical run blocker with surprising mobility. They have conceded on ideals before (I doubt they planned to draft a 5-10 quarterback, for example) but the player generally has to excel in so many other ways to counteract the deficiency. Tretola’s size and playing style ideally fits their desire to become tougher in the trenches.
— Pete Carroll spoke about improving the pass rush, noting (and I’m paraphrasing), “We’ll see what happens in the draft”. After putting together a two-round mock, it might not be the easiest thing to accomplish. There could be two waves of value on the defensive line in rounds 1-2. An early rush that will see the likes of Joey Bosa, DeForest Buckner, Noah Spence and Sheldon Rankins leave the board in the top-20. The second wave arguably comes between picks #35-50 where a host of defensive lineman will likely be taken. The Seahawks own the #56 pick. If this proves to be the case, it might push them towards the veteran free agent market again. The Seahawks have had a lot of success finding defensive linemen at great value on the open market. That might be their best chance to upgrade the pass rush this year too.
Deion Jones (LB, LSU) had a terrific first half. On one play he lined up at middle linebacker, read the quarterback and reacted to a scramble by Carson Wentz. Jones flashed incredible closing speed to reach the sideline and drop Wentz for a short gain. He also showed some special teams value, excelling as a gunner on one punt to reach the return man and drop him for a short gain. Jones is a sudden, fluid athlete who is light (219lbs) but has some length and physicality. He looks a lot like Telvin Smith at Jacksonville — one of the more exciting young defensive players in the NFL and a pure playmaker. Jones wouldn’t look out of place as a second round pick for the Seahawks if they need to replace Bruce Irvin. He looks like an ideal fit for the WILL position.
Nick Martin (C, Notre Dame) lined up at center and left guard and looked comfortable throughout. At center he was immovable and held position nicely. He hustled to recover a Carson Wentz fumble early in the game. At left guard he helped convert a fourth and one by pulling to the right and hitting the linebacker to create a running lane. On a similar play two snaps later he buried Alabama’s Jarran Reed, driving him on his back into the turf. That’s not easy to do. Martin led the way on a Cody Kessler QB-sneak at the one-yard line. Martin and Dahl came together for a fantastic partnership at center and right guard (more on that later). He looks mobile, stout and powerful. He looks every bit a top-50 talent and could be a lot closer to his brother Zack than a lot of people realise. The Seahawks might only get one chance to draft him — at #26.
Sebastien Tretola (G, Arkansas) really stood out in the first half. He’s a massive, physical guard but the most impressive thing so far is his mobility. On the game’s first touchdown he pulled from right guard to open a lane that the running back exploited for a long score. He also pancaked Notre Dame’s Sheldon Day with 11:36 left in the first half. Day was flattened on the deck. The Seahawks like size at left guard and Tretola is showing today he’s also mobile enough for the ZBS. He’s one to monitor for sure and could be available between rounds 3-5.
Vernon Butler (DT, Louisiana Tech) is one of the more intriguing players in the class. He trashed Missouri center Evan Boehm on a bull rush to sack Jake Coker. Boehm’s as tough as nails and Butler just overwhelmed him. On another play he darted into the backfield with a nice rip/swim move. He’s not a quick twitch pass-rusher at 325lbs but he combines power, great hand use and length (34 inch arms) to create pressure. Mike Mayock compared him to Linval Joseph and Muhammed Wilkerson. The thing is — he looks like he could actually add some tone to his arms and become even stronger. It wouldn’t be a shock at all if he lands in the top-25.
Noah Spence (DE, Eastern Kentucky) has to convince teams he can be trusted after his departure from Ohio State — but in terms of a skill set it’s increasingly obvious he warrants a place in the top-20. He waltzed beyond Stanford tackle Kyle Murphy with an inside move that just looked too easy. He had a sack off the edge, swiping away the right tackle with great hands and showed an explosive finish. On one second half sack he easily beat Jason Spriggs to the edge. He doesn’t have ideal length (arm length seemingly adjusted to 32 inches following an error) but he’s quick-twitch and there just aren’t many players in the league with this type of agility working the edge.
Graham Glasgow (C, Michigan) came into the game midway through the first half and dominated Penn State’s Austin Johnson — manhandling him several times. On one occasion he just drove him downfield about five yards beyond the LOS. He had some issues battling Louisville’s Sheldon Rankins during the week — but Glasgow is building off a good week at the Shrine practises in the first half here. He played right guard in the second half where he didn’t look quite as comfortable. If the Seahawks want size (6-6, +300lbs) at center, Glasgow has the toughness they’re looking to add up front. He could work into a role at left guard. He looks like a very solid third round pick.
Kyler Fackrell (LB, Utah State) is extremely underrated. He’s a splash-play artist and impacts so many snaps. He was too quick for Le’Raven Clark on one early sack, beating him with an inside move from the edge. On another pressure he darted to the inside before countering on a stunt that also had Clark struggling. He might not be quite the all-world athlete the Seahawks seem to like at linebacker (he missed one tackle in space but had the understanding to gain position) — but there’s no reason why he can’t work as a complimentary pass rusher. He could make the late first round as a 3-4 OLB.
Joe Dahl (T, Washington State) lined up at right guard and did a really good job. Dahl’s technique as a pass-protector really translated inside — he kept his hands nice and tight and fought well against the interior pass rushers. Dahl and Nick Martin combined nicely on a couple of double teams. It looked like a really natural fit for Dahl and he and Martin made for a good looking partnership. He pulled to the left on one snap and made a nice block at the edge. Dahl can’t play tackle at the next level due to his lack of length but right guard might be his best spot. If J.R. Sweezy departs and Dahl lasts long enough — it’d be intriguing to see the Martin/Dahl partnership together again as the Seahawks possibly rebuild their interior O-line.
Players who didn’t impress:
Jason Spriggs (T, Indiana) — it’s difficult coming up against Noah Spence but Spriggs didn’t win this particular battle. He’s a tall, long, athletic tackle and teams love that. He has to do a better job against the speed rush to convince teams he can play left tackle at the next level though.
Le’Raven Clark (T, Texas Tech) — he had a rough week in practise and that just continued here. He is the ultimate project. At 6-6, well over 300lbs and nearly 36-inch arms — he’s a perfect looking left tackle. Technically though he’s a complete mess — a genuine start-from-scratch project. The Seahawks, having tried to convert defensive linemen to the O-line in the past, might not be put off taking on this challenge. He’s far from an early round pick though on this evidence and warrants a day three grade at best. Even Sheldon Day, a defensive tackle, beat him for a sack working the edge. Another really rough day for Clark.
Other notes:
Brandon Allen (QB, Arkansas) impressed among the quarterbacks. He has sub-9 inch hands and that’s an issue — but he made accurate downfield throws and had a nice scramble called back on a holding penalty. He looks like a natural passer.
Carson Wentz (QB, North Dakota) had a bit of a reality check. Wentz looked antsy in the pocket, quickly came off his read to try and scramble and was largely ineffective. He’s a toolsy, athletic quarterback but Paxton Lynch and Jared Goff might be better prepared to start early.
None of the receivers had a good day. Too many drops across the board. Nobody looked as good as Tyler Lockett did a year ago, that’s for sure.
Darian Thompson (S, Boise State) made a couple of instinctive, athletic plays in the secondary. There’s room for a safety to make a charge up the boards and go in the top-45 and Thompson could be that guy.
Miles Killebrew (S, Southern Utah) also had a nice day working in coverage and delivered one signature big hit in the backfield.
Jack Allen (C, Michigan State) barely had any game time. Unless I’m mistaken, we didn’t really see him until late in the fourth quarter. That might be a review of his stock. I’ve seen him graded as a day three pick.
Sheldon Day (DT, Notre Dame) is a player I’m going to have another look at. He’s small (6-2, 285lbs) but looked sharp and quick here.
Jarran Reed (DT, Alabama) isn’t a great pass rusher but he’s disruptive. He’s tough to move, works to the ball carrier and plays with a relentless nature. Late in the fourth quarter he impacted three consecutive snaps to force a turnover on downs.
Aaron Burbridge (WR, Michigan State) caught a hail mary to end the game but was virtually anonymous apart from that.
Final thought
It’s impossible to overstate how good Nick Martin and Joe Dahl looked playing next to each other. If the Seahawks are prepared to spend three picks on the O-line (possible?) I’d be comfortable naming that pair on this evidence as two players I’d want to come away with — even if that meant having to find an offensive tackle or left guard by different means. If a player like Phil Loadholt is available as a cap casualty in Minnesota and you can plug him in at right tackle — a line of Gilliam-Tretola-Martin-Dahl-Loadholt would provide a nice blend of size, athleticism, grit and physicality.
LSU linebacker Deion Jones also made a good case to be a second round option for Seattle.
There are some good, hard-nosed center’s in this draft class. That’s a good thing for a Seahawks team looking to get physical. And while it’s unclear what they intend to do at the position (draft, free agency?) it does seem likely they’ll be adding a new center at some point.
Seattle’s line play improved dramatically when relative novice Drew Nowak was replaced by Patrick Lewis. Nobody would argue Lewis is a top-tier center — but his knowledge of the position, understanding and ability to make the right line calls was pivotal in a mid-season offensive turnaround. Solidifying this position over the short term (veteran signing) or long term (rookie) could be an off-season priority.
The overall depth available (you might be able to find a starter in rounds 3-4) could push the Seahawks to address other needs early. That said, I’m starting to wonder if Notre Dame’s Nick Martin might be underrated.
He’s the brother of Zack Martin (the #16 overall pick by Dallas in 2014). Zack played left tackle for Notre Dame and was pretty much considered a future first rounder the minute he walked on campus and so it proved. He’s since moved inside to right guard where he’s established himself as one of the best in the league.
He was considered a clean prospect. Not overly spectacular but a nice mix of athleticism, grit, maturity and dependability. When I sat down last night to really study his brother Nick — I saw a lot of the same characteristics. Nobody will argue they’re the same player — Zack is more athletic — but there’s not a million miles of difference.
The video above is against Ohio State — the toughest opponent Notre Dame faced last year. Take a look for yourself. I didn’t see a single snap where he even looked flustered. Some of the play calls were dubious (a lot of shifting the protection which felt unnecessary) but Martin just excelled throughout. There were a handful of occasions where the rest of the line dropped 2-3 yards behind the LOS to protect while Martin remained at the line blocking his guy better than anyone else. He knows how to work an opening up the middle in the run game and his pass protection is sound.
He can move around and pull when required — plus after watching three Notre Dame games in the last 24 hours he’s certainly willing to get to the second level. Like his brother appeared to be going into the NFL — he’d be a nice fit in the ZBS. He’s a block-finisher which is good to see and he plays with an edge. He plays with balance, setting his position and locking-on. These are all things the Seahawks are almost certainly looking for.
There really isn’t much to nitpick here. Like his brother, Nick Martin is just a really solid future NFL starter.
A serious knee injury in 2013 appears to have taken away some of his explosion and perhaps is the separating factor between Nick and Zack. That said — if you’re after a really dependable interior blocker with the bloodlines, attitude and ability to start quickly — this feels like a wise choice. For a team like the Seahawks that suffered so much uncertainty at the position — you’d know what you were getting from your center with this guy.
So how early could he go?
I’ve seen him ranked predominantly in the middle rounds although interestingly Tony Pauline gave him a first or second round grade last week. That might be about right actually. He’s going to be a multi-year starter. He has decent size (not too big but not as squatty as Jack Allen or Evan Boehm) at 6-4 and 296lbs.
He could easily go in the top-50 picks.
If you imagine a scenario where the top offensive tackles are off the board by #26 (and the best pass rushers) taking a good center might not be such a bad idea for the Seahawks. They’d still have to draft or sign another tackle and find a replacement at left guard — but this is also a deep draft at tackle and the veteran market might provide a solution at either position. They might be able to trade down from #26 (as they’ve been known to do) and still look at a guy like this.
It’s something to consider. Martin wouldn’t necessarily be a flashy pick but if the Seahawks want a player they can trust to start in week one and be a solid starter — they could do a lot worse.
I suspect a few people will cringe at the idea because he’s perceived not to be a first or second rounder. The league might be judging this player differently though. And if you knew a lot of NFL teams were looking at Martin early — would that change your perception?
I sense Nick Martin is being underrated in some quarters and don’t underestimate the power of bloodlines. Even if he doesn’t end up going in the top-50 — he might be a coveted center at the end of round two. If the Seahawks were able to add a first round tackle or guard and come back in round two with a center like Martin — they could feel pretty good about their O-line going forward.
Sheldon Rankins (DT, Louisville) has had quite a week. He’s flashed quick feet and get-off plus a relentless motor, combining technique (a spin move to die for) with power and leverage to be one of the big winners in Mobile.
However, I challenge anyone to watch this video (his performance vs Florida State) and see the same kind of success…
This is the dilemma with Rankins for me. How much is he ideally suited to have a Senior Bowl impact and how likely is he to recreate the success we’re seeing in the drills at the next level?
It doesn’t mean the Seahawks will necessarily draft him at #26 if he’s available. There’s also every chance he’ll be off the board if the Mobile hype is legit. It is another example though on why Pauline is a must-follow at this time of year. Twelve months ago he suggested the Seahawks were interested in little know San Diego State lineman Terry Poole (drafted in round four). He previously pegged Seattle with first round interest in Aaron Donald and Odell Beckham Jr. — at a time neither prospect was being thought of as a top-15 lock.
So whatever your view on Rankins — you can take it to the bank that the Seahawks have given him a first round grade.
As noted earlier I wanted to write down some thoughts on a handful of prospects at the Senior Bowl today…
Joshua Garnett (G, Stanford) — he seems to have competed with a real intensity this week and you do see flashes of an edge. In terms of the Seahawks he might be working from an initial disadvantage as a pure guard. They’ve not taken one of those early since John Moffitt in 2011. Instead we’ve seen long, hulking tackles like James Carpenter and Justin Britt converted to left guard — while the right guard spot has been filled by more athletic, mobile, aggressive players like J.R. Sweezy and Mark Glowinski. Garnett doesn’t fit either mould. He’s 6-4, 317lbs and has 33.5 inch arms. It’s not a million miles away from their size ideal at LG — but you have to wonder how they’ll view his upside. He might ultimately go too early for them. Tony Pauline tweeted that he’s had another really good day in Mobile. Are the Seahawks willing to take a pure guard in round two? I have my doubts. It would go against their recent trends. They seem more likely to convert a mid-round tackle with genuine size/length to the position. Yet such is the dearth of options at left guard, you wonder if they’ll consider an early pick this year to try and provide some extra bite. It feels like they have to do something after a rough year for Justin Britt after moving inside.
Vernon Butler (DT, Louisiana Tech) — his lack of pass rush skills maybe limit his value to the Seahawks. That said, I can imagine they will be interested in his length (+34 inch arms), size (6-4, 325lbs) and agility. He carries the weight well. Comparisons to Muhammad Wilkerson are not quite as unrealistic any more (Wilkerson had +35 inch arms and weighed only 315lbs). If the Seahawks were minded to think, ‘if only we could afford Wilkerson in free agency’ — Butler might be a cheaper alternative. However, how does he fit? If it’s to rotate with Mebane and Rubin — is it worth such a high pick if he’s playing a low percentage of snaps? If it’s to replace either player, wouldn’t it make more sense to keep them at a relatively small price and spend your top pick on someone else? Or just plug in another cheap outside veteran as you’ve done for multiple years? We need to believe in trends — and the Seahawks have avoided going for big, physical run stuffers early.
Jason Spriggs (T, Indiana) — The Senior Bowl is an ideal place for interior defensive linemen and athletic offensive tackles to dominate. Every report I’ve seen has Spriggs boosting his stock this week. Tony Pauline tweeted today that Spriggs has likely cemented himself in the late first round. So basically, into the range the Seahawks are picking. He’s a very similar size to Garry Gilliam with +34 inch arms at 6-5 and a half and 301lbs. Like Gilliam he’s also a former tight end. If they want to plug in two athletic tackles and create a tougher interior line — Spriggs is definitely a viable candidate. There seems very little reason to count him out. Teams will wear out the tape studying his performance against Ohio State and Joey Bosa. They will be impressed, it’s good tape. The question is — like so many athletic tackles before him, will his time in Mobile provide a boost that actually moves him into the top-25 and away from Seattle’s pick? And how prepared are they to go early on the O-line after identifying players like Glowinski (round four) and Gilliam (UDFA) without the big investment?
Le’Raven Clark (T, Texas Tech) — the reports on Clark so far have been fairly negative. It’s not a total surprise. When you watch him on TV tape he just looks bad for the most part. His performance against LSU was frankly embarrassing and made a mockery of projections like this one considering him a first round talent (to the Seahawks no less). Here’s the thing though — if you had to design a frame for a NFL left tackle, you’d draw him up to look like Le’Raven Clark. He’s pushing 6-6 in height, weighs 312lbs and has 36 and a quarter inch arms. That’s world class size and length. The Seahawks have developed the belief that all rookie offensive linemen have to learn their technique from scratch. It’s why they’ve been shooting for athletes with unique traits. If you have to train guys up from scratch — why not a player like J.R. Sweezy or Kristjan Sokoli, even if they come from a defensive background? Technique is very much the issue with Clark (that and some much needed upper body strength work). They might decide that his frame is worth taking a chance on. They might believe they can coach him up to succeed and that the upside is incredible. And if they hold that belief — the only question is what range are they willing to take him? I’ve seen him graded in the late rounds (it’s what his tape performance deserves) — would they consider him as a left/right tackle project in rounds 3-4? Allowing them to address other needs earlier?
The center group — I’m intrigued to see what the Seahawks plan to do at center. I suspect they’ll be adding one at some point. They started Patrick Lewis virtually as a stop-gap measure. Pete Carroll continues to talk up Kristjan Sokoli as a developmental project for the team. They also seem to be fascinated by the idea of a highly athletic center. That said, they can’t go into next season with uncertainty here. The improvement when they switched from Drew Nowak to Patrick Lewis was clear to see. If they can’t afford to go the veteran route in free agency, they might have to draft one. This actually looks like the year to do it anyway. Cody Whitehair (Kansas State) provides an early round option with a combination of great balance, size and consistency. Nick Martin (Notre Dame) has the bloodlines, temperament, technique and physical qualities to be a better player than I think we realise. Don’t be surprised if he goes a lot earlier than anyone expects. He has impressed this week and could join Whitehair in going in the top-45. Jack Allen (Michigan State) is just a classic tough guy in a year where the Seahawks want to get tough. He has the wrestling background Tom Cable likes. He’s only 6-1, 297lbs with 31 and 3/4 inch arms though — is he too squatty for the Seahawks — or athletic enough? Graham Glasgow (Michigan) is tough and physical too with better size (6-6, 306lbs) but he’s struggled this week against Sheldon Rankins. How much is that down to Rankins being on it and how much is it down to Graham? There are others to mention too — Evan Boehm (Missouri), Joe Dahl (T, Washington State) could move to center and Ryan Kelly (Alabama), who chose not to attend the Senior Bowl, is another tough-as-nails interior blocker. They might need to compromise on their desire for athleticism (and in some cases size) — but if they want to toughen up in the trenches, they’ll consider taking one of these center’s.
Louisiana Tech DT Vernon Butler could go in the first round
Before we get into the Senior Bowl highlights from yesterday, here are some observations I made watching games yesterday:
— Vernon Butler (DT, Louisiana Tech) is the most intriguing interior defensive linemen in the class. I watched him against Rice and Kansas State and you could see him playing for the Seahawks. His gap discipline is excellent and that’s a big deal for Seattle. They preach doing your job up front and it helps them dominate vs the run. There aren’t many DT’s with length (34 inch arms), size (325lbs) and this type of mobility/athleticism. They like unique players — Butler has a rare physical combination. He carries the size well with a nice blend of lower/upper body power. He’ll soak up a double team on one play allowing the linebacker to break through on a blitz. On the next down he’ll stretch out a run play and work to the sideline. Here’s the thing though — he isn’t a great pass rusher. He just isn’t. And that’s underlined by a poor stat-sheet against some below-par opponents in 2015 (three sacks). So while he has the potential to become a very impressive, solid pro-DT at the next level — is he likely to improve upon what the Seahawks already have? That said, I’m not sure there’s a DT I’d want to take earlier than Butler in the entire class.
— When I do my next mock draft, Kyler Fackrell (DE/OLB, Utah State) will be in the top-25. I can see why PFF graded him as one of the most underrated pass rushers in college football in 2015. Unlike Vernon Butler, his middling statistics (four sacks) don’t do him justice. He’s a splash play artist — constantly impacting snaps and forcing mistakes. He’s a relentless rusher responsible for so many bad throws, picks and poor decisions. Whether you want to use him in the 3-4 at linebacker, off the edge in a 4-3 or in a Jamie Collins type role — he’ll be able to make plays. He’s one of the most fun players you’ll see in this class — with the attitude, intensity and football character that will make him incredibly attractive to teams. If the Dallas Cowboys wanted to draw a line under the ugly Greg Hardy episode, Fackrell would be an ideal replacement. They won’t take him with the #4 pick — but if they trade down with a club looking to draft one of the top QB’s, it could be possible.
— Sheldon Rankins (DT, Louisville) is getting a lot of attention after what appears to be a terrific first day of practise at the Senior Bowl. I saw one clip where he embarrassed Graham Glasgow with a fantastic spin move. It was quick-twitch, fluid technique at its best. He apparently had a similar move against Evan Boehm. I recall not being overly impressed with his tape — so I went back yesterday to review that initial take. And I came away unimpressed again. Perhaps the nature of the drills and the 1v1 nature of the plays suit Rankins? There’s no denying he has an attractive combination of quick feet and compact size (6-2, around 300lbs) that you want to see in an orthodox 4-3 three technique (not that the Seahawks feature that type of player). Yet on tape he doesn’t beat anyone with the spin move, he doesn’t shoot gaps and penetrate. He hasn’t got that first step quickness to work into the backfield. He doesn’t get pushed around and he looks strong at the POA, he’ll hold his ground and occasionally force running backs to bounce outside. He can move along the line. But he’s not going to the NFL to be a run-stuffer. And there has to at least be some concern that he’ll always look great in these Senior Bowl drills — but will it translate to the NFL? I’m not overly convinced — but will try and watch another couple of different games soon.
Senior Bowl highlights
Jon Ledyard says Charles Tapper (DE, Oklahoma) had a good day (among his extensive notes). “His hands are deadly when he utilizes them, just has to get precision down. I thought Tapper had an impressive all-around day, and his thick build lends itself to a strong-side 4-3 defensive end who is pretty immovable against the run.”
Pauline also praised Noah Spence (DE, Eastern Kentucky), Malcolm Mitchell (WR, Georgia) and Jordan Jenkins (OLB/DE, Georgia) on his Twitter timeline. On Jenkins: “(He) has been unstoppable. A man among boys.”
Todd McShay thinks Braxton Miller (WR, Ohio State) can have an impact this week. “Miller showed great play, speed and savvy. He can still work on getting a cleaner release against press coverage, but he really caught the ball — even when the throws were off-target. And you saw his ability to create big plays after the catch.”
Jihad Ward is 6-5, 295lbs and would add some competition inside
I used Tony Pauline’s rankings to try and piece together a range for each prospect. The idea was to try to enhance the pass rush, the physical toughness/size in the trenches and deliver an edge.
This projection follows a free agency period where the Seahawks let Russell Okung and Bruce Irvin walk. I’ll leave it open for you to decide what happens with the rest. I want to focus on the prospects not necessarily the fate of the free agents in this discussion.
Round 1 — Shon Coleman (T, Auburn)
He’d bring an instant edge to the O-line that has been missing since Breno Giacomini left for New York. He punishes linebackers at the second level and he’s chippy. He’ll have a word in your ear after driving you downfield six yards. There are so many passive college offensive linemen — not Coleman. He has the attitude the Seahawks are looking to re-establish in 2016. They could open up a competition to see who starts at left tackle between Garry Gilliam and Coleman. He has the length and size they like and they haven’t been put off by age in the past (he’s 24, the same age as Bruce Irvin when Seattle took him with the #15 pick).
Pauline has given Coleman a round two grade, meaning he was available to pair with the #26 pick here.
Round 2 — Noah Spence (DE, Eastern Kentucky)
If the Seahawks want to upgrade their pass rush, this could be an option. They generally haven’t drafted bigger, power ends early in the draft. It’s hard to imagine them going after a Shaq Lawson type to play the edge. It’d be equally surprising to see them draft a defensive tackle who doesn’t have unique physical or athletic traits. They have placed a premium on speed and athleticism in their front seven early. Frank Clark was a monster athlete. Spence wouldn’t replace Bruce Irvin at the SAM — but he would replace his role as the extra pass rusher on key downs. He could also be trained to be a long term successor to Cliff Avril, who turns 30 in April.
Pauline has given Spence a third round grade, meaning he was available for the Seahawks at the end of round two.
R3 — Graham Glasgow (C, Michigan)
I’m not totally convinced the Seahawks will look to draft a center early. The red shirting of Kristjan Sokoli suggests they are willing to give that project time. Their decision to start Drew Nowak also indicates they’re keen to have a truly athletic center at the heart of the O-line. They could add a veteran ‘place holder’ for 2-3 years to solidify this position. Glasgow could be moved to left guard. He plays with a real determination and edge. He isn’t going to back down at the next level. He stands his ground, plants his feet and stones interior rushers. He’s capable of driving people off the line and put on a clinic at the Shrine game practises. If the Seahawks want to add tough guys to their O-line, Graham is a good candidate. He could add 10lbs and be close to the ideal size for their left guard preference (they seem to like ‘huge’ at LG). Adding Coleman and Glasgow to the O-line, with a veteran too preferably, would instantly upgrade the toughness of that unit.
Pauline has given Graham a fifth round grade but admitted he improved his stock (possibly by two rounds) at the Shrine game. We’ll say he’s available for Seattle’s first pick in round three.
Round 3 — William Jackson (CB, Houston)
The Seahawks haven’t taken a cornerback prospect this early. Walter Thurmond is their highest corner pick in round four. That said, it might time to replenish the depth of this group and make an investment of sorts. If Jeremy Lane departs it’ll increase the pressure on Seattle to find another gem in this draft. Jackson, who pulled out of the Senior Bowl at the last minute, is 6-1 and 197lbs with long arms. He had five picks in 2015 (two returned for touchdowns). He’s not a speed demon but he’s a fluid mover — Seattle seems to be comfortable with their CB’s running in the 4.5’s. With a nice batch of corners available earlier, it might be possible for Jackson to slip into range for Seattle’s comp pick here.
Pauline has given Jackson a fourth round grade, meaning he was available for this mock.
ALTERNATIVE ROUND 3 PICK — Paul Perkins (RB, UCLA)
If the Seahawks decide to do what it takes to keep Jeremy Lane — they might be satisfied with their depth at corner with DeShawn Shead and Tharold Simon returning along with a crop of young players. In that case, this could be a sweet spot at running back. For me the Seahawks need a third down back to compliment Thomas Rawls and compete for #2 snaps with Christine Michael. Perkins has the pass-catching talent to be a dynamic receiver out of the backfield. His blocking needs work but that’s the same for most college RB’s. He also has a fantastic cut-and-run ability with superb balance. He doesn’t go down on first contact either despite a lack of great size. Perkins is also a well-spoken student of the game. He’d look great in Seattle.
Pauline has given Perkins a third round grade
Round 4 — Rashard Higgins (WR, Colorado State)
If Jermaine Kearse joins a new team in free agency, the chances are the Seahawks will draft a receiver at some point. They’ve drafted three receivers in the fourth round since 2010 — Kris Durham, Chris Harper and Kevin Norwood. Although none of those three picks worked out, it’s unlikely to dissuade them going WR in this round again. Higgins has nice college production (something they value) and has shown the ability to separate and play with suddenness (another thing they like). He might not last until the late fourth but there will be plenty of other options.
Pauline has given Higgins a fifth round grade, making him available for this pick.
R5 — Jihad Ward (DT, Illinois)
In this little scenario we’re playing here, the Seahawks maybe lost Okung, Irvin, Kearse and Lane. Which would make some free cash available to make some choice additions in the free agent market. That doesn’t mean a splurge. More likely some savvy veteran experience to bolster the trenches, be it at center, left guard or the defensive line. They’ve consistently found pieces on the interior D-line to their credit — whether it’s Clinton McDonald, Athyba Rubin, Kevin Williams, Tony McDaniel and others. They know what to look for and should be able to enhance their rotation without breaking the bank. This pick might just add to the competition even if the player doesn’t make the team in year one. Ward is 6-5 and 295lbs and built to add some presence. He had 11 tackles (9 solo) against Rose Bowl finalist Iowa. He isn’t McDaniel in terms of persona but he’s similar in size and could turn into a comparable piece of the rotation. The oldest child in a single-parent household, Ward became a father figure for his siblings.
Pauline has graded Ward in the fifth or sixth round.
R6 — Fahn Cooper (T, Ole Miss)
There were two options here. Cooper — who I like a lot and don’t think will be available in round six — and Le’Raven Clark of Texas Tech — who might be one of the more overrated players in the draft. Pauline grades him as a seventh rounder and while that might be extreme — I’d certainly lean more towards that than the current first round projection (to the Seahawks no less) by NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein. Clark’s tape against LSU was frankly embarrassing and showed a player with almost no future at left tackle in the NFL. He has the footwork, length and agility but almost no punch or counter, his set is inconsistent and he looks like a major project. Cooper is much more polished and accomplished. He held the fort at left tackle for Ole Miss during Laremy Tunsil’s suspension. He’s a born leader who speaks like a pro. I’d want him on my team and if I can get him this late in the draft — even better.
I suspect he will end up going in the middle rounds — yet for now Pauline has him graded in round six so I took him.
R7 — Travis Feeney (LB, Washington)
This follows on from the thought yesterday that the Seahawks might not prioritise filling the SAM spot in the draft if Bruce Irvin departs. Opening up a competition involving a draft pick, maybe an UDFA and the likes of Eric Pinkins, Kevin Pierre-Louis and Mike Morgan might be the way to go. It allows them to focus on upgrading the trenches and other areas. Feeney has had multiple shoulder surgeries and that could be enough to put him into the UDFA pool. That might be the preferred route for the Seahawks and they’ve successfully recruited former Huskies in free agency in the past. It’s unlikely he’d start in 2016 at the WILL but he could see some playing time while contributing on special teams.
Pauline is currently projecting Feeney as a sixth or seventh round pick.
R7 — Ronald Blair III (DE, Appalachian State)
I want to see what this guy can do at the combine. I’m trying to work out how and why he ended up at Appalachian State having seemingly drawn a fair amount of interest from the SEC at High School. He’s a really disruptive pass rusher who can work inside or out. For me his best role might be to gain another 10lbs and act as an orthodox three-technique (not the Athyba Rubin type). His performance against Clemson in 2015 showed he can do it against the best in college football. If you’re looking for a sleeper pick who can maybe act as an interior disruptor — Blair III could be your guy.
Pauline is projecting he will go undrafted.
Senior Bowl weigh in notes
— Vernon Butler (DT, Louisiana Tech) and Adolphus Washington (DT, Ohio State) both have really nice length. Both players are pushing 6-4 in height with 34 inch arms. Butler is 325lbs (!!!) and Washington 295lbs. It’s a bit surprising to see Butler is carrying that much weight.
— At 6-4, 299lbs and sub 33-inch arms, Joe Dahl (T, Washington State) is definitely moving inside to guard or center.
— I’ve never been a fan of Sheldon Day (DT, Notre Dame) but he measured in at 6-0 and 286lbs which is incredibly small and light.
— Le’Raven Clark (T, Texas Tech) has 36 and 1/4 inch arms at nearly 6-6 and 312lbs. He has a fantastic tackle body. It’s just a shame his tape is so disappointing (see notes above)
— Cody Whitehair (T, Kansas State) is best suited to center. That was confirmed today when he measured only 31 and 3/8 inch arms. He’s a T-Rex. He took some snaps in practise today at center.
— According to Tony Pauline, some teams are put off by Graham Glasgow’s height. He’s 6-6 and 306lbs with 33 and 1/8 inch arms. The Seahawks aren’t concerned by height at center. Max Unger is 6-5, Drew Nowak 6-3 and Kristjan Sokoli 6-5. Glasgow could play guard for Seattle too (see above).
— Noah Spence (DE, Eastern Kentucky) has to look electric and fast because he isn’t long. He’s under 6-3 and 254lbs with only 31 inch arms.
— Charles Tapper (DE, Oklahoma) is a shade under 6-3, 276lbs and has +34 inch arms. There’s a lot to like about his ability to rush inside and out.
— Deiondre Hall (CB, Northern Iowa) has nearly 35 inch arms (!!!) at a shade under 6-2 and 192lbs. Intriguing.
Here’s what I’m going to be looking for from certain players on both squads:
North team
Braxton Miller (WR, Ohio State)
He’s so good in space so let’s see some of that during drills and in the game. He was underused by the Buckeyes — will he get a chance to shine here?
Carson Wentz (QB, North Dakota State)
He’s generating a lot of buzz and rightly so — but this is his chance to cement his placing in the top-15 with Paxton Lynch and possibly Jared Goff. Can he look like he belongs playing next to a better standard of college talent?
Miles Killebrew (S, Southern Utah)
There’s no doubting Miles’ passion for the game, his speed and pursuit. Further tape study showed too many missed tackles and a few bad angles. Can he iron out the wrinkles here? And will he get some looks at linebacker?
Kyler Fackrell (LB, Utah State)
This guy is very intriguing. V12 made a comparison to Jamie Collins and it’s pretty fair. He can rush the edge or be more of an orthodox SAM. His forty time, 10-yard split and overall combine performance will determine how likely he is to be a Seahawk. Could they turn him into a pure edge rusher?
Joshua Garnett (G, Stanford)
Quite simply — what shape is he in? He looks big on tape.
Joe Dahl (T, Washington State)
Firstly — is he 100% recovered from the foot injury? Secondly — where is he used? Does he stay at tackle? Will he be tried at guard and/or center?
Nick Martin (C, Notre Dame)
He’s not his brother but neither is he the total opposite of Zack. There are things to like about his game — the question is will he ever be 100% after a serious knee injury that clearly impacted his explosion. Can he impress enough to live up to Tony Pauline’s first or second round projection?
Jason Spriggs (T, Indiana)
He’s tall and long and looks like a tackle — but will he be comfortable in the 1v1 drills in pass-pro? He needs to avoid the inside counter and use his length.
Aaron Burbidge (WR, Michigan State)
Can he perform as well in the game as Tyler Lockett did a year ago? He moved the chains for MSU in 2015. Can he have a nice, consistent week?
Sheldon Day (DT, Notre Dame)
I was never overly impressed with Day in college but the Senior Bowl is ideal for linemen on both sides of the ball to improve their stock. Can he swim/rip naturally and show some flair?
Adolphus Washington (DT, Ohio State)
He has the potential to go off in Mobile. He’s a terrific interior rusher when he’s on it. The problem is — he’s very streaky. Of all the DT’s here he might be the one who leaves with the biggest boost IF he performs consistently.
Vernon Butler (DT, Louisiana Tech)
Perhaps the most interesting guy to monitor. Is he as good as some will have you believe? We’ll find out.
South team
Deion Jones (LB, LSU)
He’s a terrific athlete and a really fluid runner who would be a natural fit at the WILL. He has limited starting experience — can he prove he’s ready here in Mobile?
Sterling Shephard (WR, Oklahoma)
He has everything going for him — production, the bloodlines, the right attitude. Can he show some suddenness and explosion out of his breaks?
Jacoby Brissett (QB, NC State)
There were flashes in his college career where you could be forgiven for wondering if he was a first round talent. It didn’t happen enough. How will he look next to Dak Prescott?
Dak Prescott (QB, Mississippi State)
Speaking of which — if the Seahawks are looking for a cheap, mobile backup for Russell Wilson — should we keep an eye on Prescott’s performance this week?
Jeremy Cash (S, Duke)
How good is he? I’ve never quite been able to settle on Jeremy Cash. This will be a nice test for him.
Jalen Mills (CB, LSU)
Another player I’ve never quite settled on. How long is he? where do they use him?
Eric Striker (LB, Oklahoma)
How big is he for a start? He always looked undersized but played big. He’s an intense, sparky athlete who makes constant plays. He should thrive in Mobile with a chance to impress.
Cody Whitehair (T, Kansas State)
Do they instantly kick him inside to guard (his natural NFL position) or even center? Or does he get looks at tackle first? He could leave the week with a top-20 grade if he performs.
Connor McGovern (T, Missouri)
The next Mizzou left tackle who is likely to move inside. Justin Britt has flopped but Mitch Morse had a very good rookie season. McGovern likely plays guard or center.
Le’Raven Clark (T, Texas Tech)
His tape against LSU from 2015 is so bad you want to slam down your computer screen. Yet the Senior Bowl is made for long, nimble left tackles to make money. Can he use his natural bend and athleticism — plus his length — to prove he deserves a chance to be someone’s left tackle?
Graham Glasgow (C, Michigan)
Following reports of a productive Shrine week, can Glasgow follow it up here and continue his ascent up the board?
Evan Boehm (C, Missouri)
Teams are going to love meeting with Boehm and his gritty attitude and desire to finish blocks will stick out. He is top-heavy though and pretty squatty, which will put some teams off.
Charles Tapper (DE, Oklahoma)
He has a genuine talent to rush the passer lining up inside or out. This could be a big week for Tapper who doesn’t get anywhere near enough attention.
Shawn Oakman (DE, Baylor)
The forgotten man. Nobody can deny Oakman’s insane physical appearance — but he plays like a pussy cat. That needs to change. Right now.
Noah Spence (DE, Eastern Kentucky)
The most interesting thing with Spence will be to see if reports emerge on how teams feel about his character and background.
Other notes
— In trying to work out what they do at linebacker next year, I did have this thought. What if they just open it up to a competition? They’re unlikely to find another Bruce Irvin so will they bring in some athletes and let them go at it with Kevin Pierre-Louis, Eric Pinkins and Mike Morgan? Rather than going big to replace Irvin, do they give an opportunity to a Travis Feeney (maybe as an UDFA), a Deion Jones from LSU or a safety convert with speed? I’m not convinced this has to be a position where they go big early in the draft, especially if they want to get tougher in the trenches. It might take a back seat.
— We had a nice reminder this week from community member Steve that John Schneider referenced the Seahawks not exactly being ‘the bullies’ of the NFL this year. That’s probably true. They weren’t far off — but a lack of depth on the D-line and maybe a lack of Breno on the O-line is noticeable. So how do they regain that edge with rookies? I still think Shon Coleman is the toughest, edgiest tackle I’ve seen this year (punishes at the second level, talks trash, finishes blocks). This is a really hard-nosed group of centers with several tough guys. And yet what they really need is a left guard with size who can move people off the ball and hold their own 1v1. It’s a bit harder to find those types in college. Is there a veteran who can do it?
— Likewise on the D-line, it’s easy to point to the 2013 group and try to mimic that. It’s worth noting the number of seasoned vets on the team that are no longer in Seattle. Denver’s D-line is fearsome but again — it’s a veteran group. It’s going to be really tough with the team tight against the cap — but it kind of feels like they need to work that old magic by finding value in the free agent market.
Hsu also calculates the Seahawks will need to save $4-5m for the rookie class and $5m to re-up the four restricted free agents. The $18m also includes having addressed special teams needs.
Pete Carroll made it clear in his end of season press conference that he wanted to keep the team together. They won’t be able to keep everyone, of course. So the first question to consider is — who’s the priority?
They want to try and create a consistent O-line in 2016. If they let Russell Okung walk, they face the prospect of starting Garry Gilliam at left tackle or a rookie. Either way you’re taking a chance.
J.R. Sweezy didn’t have a great 2015 season but he performed well enough to earn praise from Pete Carroll in the two previous seasons. How much of his performance was effected by the overall struggles of the O-line? And if Okung departs, can they afford to lose their two most experienced linemen?
Bear in mind, if there’s only $18m available — there isn’t really the cash to go and bring in any other moderately expensive veteran offensive linemen.
So keeping Okung and Sweezy is the priority, right?
Possibly not.
Keeping one or both and upgrading other positions on the line (eg left guard) would be the best way to retain some level of consistency so there’s little chance of any growing pains going into 2016. But if it costs $8-9m APY to sign Okung and $4-5m to keep Sweezy — there’s not much left to sign your other free agents. With a strong looking O-line draft coming up — it might be an area they once again try to rebuild.
We recently discussed the possibility of Phil Loadholt being an option for the Seahawks if he’s a cap casualty in Minnesota. After missing so much time through injury he might only command a modest salary. He could add some tackle competition and he has the size they like at left guard and right tackle.
If they’re comfortable with Mark Glowinski at right guard (he played well in week 17 but it is only one game) they might be prepared to move on from Sweezy. Likewise their faith in Gilliam to adapt to the left side might tempt them to allow Okung to depart.
If they both leave you still have $18m to try and keep Rubin, Irvin, Mebane, Lane and Kearse.
Mebane and Rubin might be willing to take around $3-4m. That would constitute a raise for Rubin ($2.6m) and a drop for Mebane ($5.7m). It’s unlikely Mebane, who turned 31 on January 15th, would command $5m anywhere else.
Kearse is an interesting case. Doug Baldwin’s second contract in the NFL paid him $4.3m APY and he signed that deal aged 25. Kearse is 26 in February. Unless he gets a really tempting offer elsewhere — a similar three-year contract paying him $3.5-4m APY makes sense. I’m not sure they’d prioritise keeping Kearse over others — but if the money is available it’s worth keeping a player who just makes big plays.
Bruce Irvin is hard to work out. The Atlanta Falcons only have $19m total cap to play with and might not have the cash to throw big money at Irvin. If he wants to be an edge rusher, they also just drafted Vic Beasley. Are they really willing to carry two undersized speed rushers?
There are other potential suitors of course. The Raiders might be willing to play him at DE/LEO and they have plenty of free cap ($60m). The Chicago Bears are rebuilding their defense and have $54m to play with. He’d play OLB in the 3-4 in Chicago.
Age could be an issue (Irvin turns 29 this year). With at least a couple of good years left though he might get an offer too tempting for the Seahawks to match.
If you only re-sign Rubin, Mebane and Kearse you might have as much as $7-8m to spend on Jeremy Lane and any other business you want to do. And that brings us to perhaps the biggest dilemma.
The Seahawks really suffered on defense with Cary Williams in the line-up and the improvement was obvious when he was replaced by Lane and DeShawn Shead. Tharold Simon is set to return and they also seem to like the younger players at corner. Tye Smith for example received a red-shirt year and could push for playing time next season. It’s a risky strategy though — especially with diminished depth in the secondary these days.
Lane is a talented player with the ability to play outside and in the slot. He’s likely to receive a fair bit of attention in free agency. And while he won’t get $10.5m APY like Byron Maxwell, he might get more than we expect.
The best case scenario for the Seahawks is a one or two year deal with the chance to be a starter and really enhance his stock. He’s only 25 and Maxwell received his new deal approaching age 27. It’s not totally out of the question but it’ll only take one team being seriously interested to make it a pipe dream.
They might need to commit here. We could be talking $6-8m APY. And it might be too much. Yet overpaying to keep a good corner and avoiding further issues there next season might be worth it.
That wouldn’t leave much room to do anything else. A deal for Olivier Vernon or Alex Mack would be out of the question. Ask yourself though — would you rather have either player instead of Jeremy Lane? What gives the Seahawks the best chance to win in 2016? Not needing to replace Lane, adding Vernon as a rotational pass rusher or upgrading from Patrick Lewis to Mack?
Of course, if they let Kearse walk they would have enough room to possibly bring Vernon in on a Michael Bennet style contract if his market is lukewarm. Jabaal Sheard is earning $5.5m APY with the Patriots on a two-year deal. His first year cap hit was $4m. Vernon for Kearse? That’s a different story. But there’s nothing to suggest Vernon won’t get bigger offers.
The big counter to this could be Carroll’s comments on the pass rush when asked last Monday. He said he hoped to find some help there — but then said it’d depend on the options in the draft. It’s perhaps another indicator that any big moves in free agency are unlikely — especially if they want to try and keep a large pool of UFA’s together.
Perhaps I’m overestimating the value of the players? Maybe Lane only commands $4m APY, Kearse $2.5m, Mebane and Rubin in the $2.5m-3m range. Maybe. The rest of the NFL isn’t exactly disinterested in Seattle’s free agents though. Look at the deals for Maxwell, James Carpenter and others.
If they sign Lane, Rubin and Mebane (and maybe Vernon, if the stars align) — the draft needs would be pretty clear. They’d need at least a couple of offensive line picks and a linebacker to replace Irvin. They could add a receiver later on to compete with Kevin Smith and Kasen Williams. They will probably look to draft a running back plus further depth on the D-line and at corner.
Signing a veteran O-liner like Loadholt (there will be alternative options) to a modest deal would take some of the pressure off. They’ve done something like this before (signing Eric Winston to compete with Justin Britt). On that occasion it was security against Britt being able to nail down the starting role. Here it would allow them to go into the draft with a little more flexibility — even if they’d probably have to add at least two more linemen in the draft.
It’s also worth nothing they can offer pay rises/contract extensions to the likes of Doug Baldwin and Michael Bennett without increasing their 2016 cap hit.
For the first time since Sunday — I’ve contemplated the Seahawks not taking an offensive lineman in round one.
The reason?
This class has some really interesting hidden gems.
There’s a lot of value to be had here — and that’s a good thing. A lot of the top prospects could be off the board by pick #26. Not having to force anything would be beneficial to the Seahawks. It’s not unrealistic to think five or six linemen could be gone by the time they’re on the clock.
Their philosophy has been to shoot for athletic, upside linemen. I want to highlight two prospects I’ve watched in the last 24 hours that appear to fit that approach.
Alex Lewis (T, Nebraska)
After rave reviews at the Shrine Game, I put on USC vs Nebraska from the 2014 season. Lewis showed excellent hand placement, a more than adequate kick-slide and enough athleticism and mobility. He even scored a touchdown in the game — working as an eligible receiver. He’s had some issues and that will limit his stock. He was jailed for 28 days in 2014. According to ESPN’s Mitch Sherman, “witnesses said Lewis repeatedly slammed the head of 22-year-old Lee Bussey into a brick wall and punched the Air Force cadet, who was knocked unconscious.” He also had a bizarre Twitter rant against Nebraska’s fans in 2015 after they criticised him for a personal foul penalty. There’s no denying his upside though — and he seems to be turning over a new leaf. He’s 6-6 and 302lbs with 33.5 inch arms. He could play right tackle.
Fahn Cooper (T, Ole Miss)
I was blown away by Cooper when I went back and watched two Ole Miss games. He’s a thoroughly competent blocker who filled in on the left side when Laremy Tunsil was unavailable. Watching interviews — he’s a well spoken, intelligent tackle who understands scheme and his role. He’s a good size — 6-5, 304lbs with 34.5 inch arms. He’s an athletic player who’d be worth a look on the blind side. He has a natural knee bend (so does Lewis) and he’s adept at working 1v1. Every year there’s a tackle who just flies under the radar and ends up being a real value pick. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Cooper is that guy. I’m not convinced the drop off from players like Jason Spriggs is all that far. And while you’d rather have a Tunsil if possible — it isn’t going to work out that way for the Seahawks.
When you also factor in the emergence of Michigan center/guard Graham Glasgow — there is a realistic way for the Seahawks to add some depth and competition to their line without necessarily having to force things if the right guy isn’t there at #26. Could upgrades and competition come in rounds 3-5 via players like Lewis, Cooper, Graham, Connor McGovern or others?
It could theoretically allow them to look at a pass rusher in round one — or a cornerback or linebacker. I haven’t done that in this updated mock draft but it’s food for thought.
Contributor ‘bobbyk’ also raised the possibility of Seattle looking at Minnesota’s Phil Loadholt. He turned 30 today and has a cap hit of $7.75m in 2016. He didn’t play a single game in 2015 and missed five games in 2014. Loadholt is a possible cap casualty in Minnesota. Darrell Bevell was on the Vikings staff when he was drafted in the second round.
The Seahawks like size at right tackle (Breno Giacomini was very tall) and they’ve also looked for size at left guard (James Carpenter). Loadholt, if he’s released, could be a relatively cheap, veteran addition.
First round mock draft
I’ve included three trades in the projection…
#1 Tennessee — Joey Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
They already have two top-11 picks on their offensive line (Taylor Lewan, Chance Warmack). They have Marcus Mariota and Dorial Green-Beckham to build around. It’s time to add a defensive focal point.
#2 Cleveland — Paxton Lynch (QB, Memphis)
Teams will believe they can win with Lynch. He’s big, mobile, accurate and led a Memphis team to a winning season against the odds. A poor man’s Cam Newton.
#3 San Diego — Laremy Tunsil (T, Ole Miss)
He missed most of the 2015 season but played well against Texas A&M’s explosive pass-rusher Myles Garrett.
**TRADE** #4 St. Louis — Jared Goff (QB, California
The Rams trade up to try and find an answer at quarterback. They’re moving to L.A. and need to take a step forward. They aren’t doing that with Case Keenum.
#5 Jacksonville — DeForest Buckner (DE, Oregon)
The Jags welcome back Dante Fowler in 2016 and pair him with their answer to Michael Bennett. Buckner is a disruptive force that can line up inside and out.
#6 Baltimore — Eli Apple (CB, Ohio State)
Length, speed and smarts. NFL teams will view Apple as an ideal corner prospect to develop. He doesn’t get beat deep and keeps everything in front.
**TRADE** #7 Philadelphia — Carson Wentz (QB, North Dakota State)
The Niners give Colin Kaepernick another shot and trade with the Eagles. Philly turns the page on the Chip Kelly era by giving Doug Pederson his own QB.
#8 Miami — Mackensie Alexander (CB, Clemson)
The Dolphins need to improve their secondary. Alexander is a fiery competitor who loves to talk. He plays above his listed size.
#9 Tampa Bay — Myles Jack (LB, UCLA)
Jack is an explosive athlete recovering from a knee injury. The Buccs put him next to Levonte David and behind block-absorbing Gerald McCoy.
#10 New York Giants — Darron Lee (LB, Ohio State)
A well spoken leader who looks like a 4.4 runner with great instinct. He could be a big-time riser over the next couple of months.
#11 Chicago — Jaylon Smith (LB, Notre Dame)
He drops a bit due to injury but not too far. Smith is an exceptional player and someone you can truly build around on defense. Could be the top talent in the draft.
#12 New Orleans — Andrew Billings (DT, Baylor)
The Saints need a nose tackle and they’ve been looking for a while. Billings is all brute strength and if he tests well could go in this range.
**TRADE** #13 San Francisco — Taylor Decker (T, Ohio State)
After moving down six spots, the Niners bring in a new tackle. With Anthony Davis retired and Alex Boone likely departing — they need to repair that O-line.
#14 Oakland — Jaylen Ramsey (CB, Florida State)
He’s a tweener. Does he have the hips and quicks to match up with elite suddenness? Or is he a permanent safety?
**TRADE** #15 Dallas — Robert Nkemdiche (DE, Ole Miss)
The Cowboys are never afraid to roll the dice. Nkemdiche might be a head-case but he’s talented. Jerry Jones approves.
#16 Detroit — Ronnie Stanley (T, Notre Dame)
He’s overrated but admittedly there is some pass-pro upside. Someone will take a shot. He doesn’t get to the second level or play with an edge.
#17 Atlanta — Laquon Treadwell (WR, Ole Miss)
Imagine pairing Treadwell with Julio Jones. If the Falcons can upgrade their defense in free agency — they can afford a pick like this.
#18 Indianapolis — Jack Conklin (T, Michigan State)
Just a hard-nosed, blue-collar tough guy who fought his way into this range as a walk-on at MSU. Not an amazing athlete — but someone teams will love.
#19 Buffalo — Leonard Floyd (OLB, Georgia)
A tall, thin linebacker suited to the 3-4. He could easily be another Aaron Maybin. The Bills do need to find players that fit the Rex Ryan scheme.
#20 New York Jets — Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Ohio State)
He could be a superstar in New York. Chris Ivory is a free agent and went off the boil in 2015 after a good start.
#21 Washington — Corey Coleman (WR, Baylor)
The minute they sign Kirk Cousins to a mega-deal, they have to put weapons around him. Coleman could replace DeSean Jackson if he’s cut.
#22 Houston — Will Fuller (WR, Notre Dame)
Fuller is a dynamite playmaker. Picking this late limits their ability to get at the QB’s. Whoever starts at QB might as well throw to Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins.
#23 Minnesota — Shon Coleman (T, Auburn)
Maybe Coleman won’t rise into the top-10 where he belongs? He’s still an awesome lineman. He should go much earlier.
#24 Cincinnati — Jarran Reed (DT, Alabama)
A brutish defensive tackle who excels in the run game. They add another layer of toughness to their defensive front.
#25 Pittsburgh — Kendall Fuller (CB, Virginia Tech)
Their secondary is a mess and needs addressing. Fuller is recovering from injury but has the bloodlines and the talent to go in this range.
#26 Seattle — Cody Whitehair (T, Kansas State)
The Seahawks take the technically gifted, athletic Whitehair and plug him in at either left guard or center.
#27 Green Bay — Kyler Fackrell (LB, Utah State)
The Packers need more athleticism at linebacker and somebody who can cover and rush. Fackrell feels like a Green Bay type of player.
**TRADE** #28 Cleveland — Michael Thomas (WR, Ohio State)
The Browns move up from #32 to #28, swapping picks with the Chiefs, to add a much needed receiver. Thomas is a big target with great agility.
#29 Denver — Germain Ifedi (T, Mississippi State)
Some people think he’ll drop into the middle rounds. He’s very muscular and in good shape. There’s plenty to work with here at tackle or guard.
#30 Arizona — Adolphus Washington (DE, Ohio State)
Flits in and out of games. Goes from impactful to anonymous. Projects well to DE in the 3-4. Fits Arizona’s scheme.
#31 Carolina — Jeremy Cash (S, Duke)
They could use some youth and an upgrade at safety. It’s not a great class overall but Cash seems to be rising.
Some players of interest after round one
Paul Perkins (RB, UCLA)
Eric Striker (LB, Oklahoma)
Marquez North (WR, Tennessee)
Ronald Blair (DE, Appalachian State)
Justin Zimmer (DE, Ferris State)
Zack Sanchez (CB, Oklahoma)
Deion Jones (LB, LSU)
Xavien Howard (CB, Baylor)
Fahn Cooper (T, Ole Miss)
Graham Glasgow (C, Michigan)
Alex Lewis (T, Nebraska)
Joe Dahl (T, Washington State)
Miles Killebrew (S, Southern Utah)
Connor McGovern (T, Missouri)
Braxton Miller (WR, Ohio State)
Charles Tapper (DE, Oklahoma)
Further thoughts on the Seahawks
I sense they had a fair bit of interest in Mitch Morse last year. He was taken by Kansas City a few picks before Seattle were on the clock in round two. Having the opportunity to draft Whitehair would give them a chance to move him inside to left guard or center.
There are some similarities to Zack Martin. At Notre Dame, Martin was the left tackle due to his superior athletic qualities and technical brilliance. Whitehair was put on the blind side for the same reasons — and even though he lacks great length he was still a big success in 2015.
Martin was destined to be a first rounder from the moment he stepped on campus at Notre Dame. Whitehair is more of a self-made man — but that shouldn’t be any concern.
Whether he fits in at left guard (replacing Justin Britt) or center (replacing Patrick Lewis) probably depends on what else they’re able to do. The intention in this mock scenario would be to add possibly two more offensive linemen.
With draft depth on the O-line (and the possibility they will move on from Russell Okung, thus saving money) — they might have the ability to do what they’ve done so well in the past — add a free agent pass rusher. Whether it’s Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril or the failed attempts to land Henry Melton and Jared Allen — the Seahawks have looked to use the market to bolster their pass rush.
Miami’s Olivier Vernon could be one to watch. He had 7.5 sacks in 2015 (and 29 in a four-year career so far). He might command big dollars on the open market. If, like Bennett and Avril, it’s not as hot as he thought — he might consider a one or two-year prove-it deal. He’s only 25 so time’s on his side.
You could argue — why not just use any free cash to keep Bruce Irvin? It could be a combination of age (he turns 29 this year) and a possible desire to adapt that position (do they go for a safety hybrid?). They might also need any free money to put a package together to keep Jeremy Lane. 2015 showed they need cornerbacks that understand the scheme to operate effectively. Losing Lane would be a potential disaster — and if they overpay to keep any of their own FA’s, it might be Lane.
This is going to be the biggest talking point of the off-season. Finding consistency on the O-line is the greatest priority for this team per Pete Carroll — and nobody is going to rush to dispute that.
It’s also a difficult and complex conundrum to solve with Russell Okung and J.R. Sweezy becoming free agents.
Letting Sweezy and Okung walk would probably make a lot of Seahawks fans happy. Be careful what you wish for. Continuity is a almost as important as talent when it comes to forging a good offensive line. Starting over at square one every offseason is not a great way to build a group that can dominate. It is a surefire way to begin the season with a struggling unit once again.
So much about line play, especially pass protection, has to do with communication and recognition. No two players on the Seahawks line this year had played a snap next to the either player that flanked them before this season started. That is about the worst-case scenario.
Consistency and continuity is the most underrated characteristic of an offensive line. Ploughing high picks or expensive free agents into an O-line isn’t a solution on its own. The Seahawks, for example, have spent as much on their O-line since Pete Carroll arrived in Seattle as any team in the league. Two first rounders (including a #6 pick), a second rounder, a third rounder and two fourth rounders last year. They also signed Robert Gallery in 2011.
People have called for that level of investment again — almost forgetting that the Seahawks have tried, in vain, to create a fantastic line using high picks in the draft.
Talent is important — but an O-line is at its best when five guys function as one. When they have the timing, understanding end execution down to a tee. When that happens — you can have success. Even if you aren’t fielding Zack Martin and Tyron Smith.
Changes up front (losing Unger, Giacomini, McQuistan, Carpenter) have prevented a cohesive unit coming together. And while it might sound attractive to simply replace Okung and Sweezy with picks or a big name free agent — it might just add to further growing pains in 2016.
At the same time, it’s not as simple as going out and re-signing Okung and Sweezy. They’re unlikely to overpay to keep either — and both players might have to enter free agency and talk to other teams to establish their true market. If the price goes beyond the Seahawks’ value — they probably move on. And who could blame them?
That doesn’t mean they’ll be easy to replace. Rookies don’t offer any guarantee to come in and play at a high level. They’re not able to replace Okung with another top-ten draft pick after all. Big name free agents don’t always pan out — and they have to be able to fit Seattle’s blocking scheme.
It’s also worth noting that one of the key free agents people want the Seahawks to sign — Alex Boone — was an undrafted free agent in 2009. You can find pieces for an O-line at any stage in the draft if you know what to look for. The Cowboys and their three first rounders up front are the exception and not the rule — and that supposed elite line in Dallas hasn’t prevented Tony Romo from missing considerable time through injury.
That said — if consistency and improved performance up front is the priority — are you going to start entrusting UDFA’s and late-round rookies to get you there? There’s also no guarantee a lineman taken at #26 will be any better than the guy they took at #25 in 2011 (James Carpenter).
So yeah, it’s a dilemma all right. And one they absolutely have to get right.
Here are three different scenarios, debating what might happen up front…
‘Evolution, not revolution’
Re-sign Okung ($7-8m APY as projected by John Clayton)
Re-sign Sweezy
Draft Cody Whitehair at #26
Draft a guard or center
The line didn’t play too badly in the second half of the year. It’s never going to be possible to shut out Aaron Donald if that is your expectation. This plan builds on what you’ve got while solidifying either the center position long term or replacing Justin Britt at left guard. Whitehair has been compared to Zack Martin. You could draft him and Graham Glasgow and let Glasgow compete with Patrick Lewis. Pete Carroll has expressed a desire to keep their players together. This would go along with that.
Projected O-line
LT — Russell Okung
LG — Cody Whitehair
C — Graham Glasgow or Patrick Lewis
RG — J.R. Sweezy
RT — Garry Gilliam
So what’s the problem?
It’ll be a challenge to keep Okung. He’s in a weird spot as a not-elite-but-still-pretty-good tackle in a league facing a left tackle crisis. He’s suffered a cluster of minor injuries in his career but nothing like a torn ACL. What is his market value? He probably needs to find out before the Seahawks can act.
This is arguably the best way to combine consistency with an upgrade. Therefore it’s arguably Seattle’s best way to achieve their #1 off-season priority. Yet all signs point to Okung moving on at the moment, leaving a big hole at tackle that would need to be addressed one way or another.
‘Blow it up and start again’
Let Russell Okung walk
Let J.R. Sweezy walk
Sign a veteran center (Alex Mack)
Draft a right tackle in the first round
Draft a guard in the middle rounds
This represents a major shift with possibly every position changing from 2015. Garry Gilliam moves to left tackle and is replaced on the right side by a rookie. You’re using the Okung/Sweezy money to put a new veteran at center and starting Mark Glowinski at right guard. By drafting a guard you’re also giving Justin Britt some competition. You’d possibly have to wait until the middle rounds to do so — with tackle being a high priority with Okung moving on.
Projected O-line
LT — Garry Gilliam
LG — Graham Glasgow or Justin Britt
C — Alex Mack
RG — Mark Glowinski
RT — Shon Coleman
So what’s the problem?
It’s a complete overhaul — and that could be a recipe for growing pains. If there’s one thing the Seahawks want to avoid it’s another six weeks of transition on their O-line. You’d be relying on Gilliam and a rookie to secure the tackle spots, Glowinski to prove his performance against Arizona wasn’t a flash in the pan and a rookie to upgrade the left guard spot. Alex Mack would also need to mesh with an incredibly young group of linemen as the richest (and oldest) member of the unit. There would be so many question marks here. Can Gilliam switch to the left? Can two rookies perform?
‘The bit of both scenario’
Let Russell Okung walk
Re-sign J.R. Sweezy
Use the Okung money to sign a veteran center or guard (Alex Mack or Alex Boone)
Draft a tackle early
Draft a center or guard
This plan keeps J.R. Sweezy and Garry Gilliam in the line-up. You’re adding a veteran interior O-liner to upgrade a big need area and using your first round pick to replace Okung. If you sign Mack, you’re looking at guards in the draft to compete with Justin Britt. If you sign Boone, perhaps you draft a Graham Glasgow to compete with Patrick Lewis? This would still be some considerable change but with fewer question marks.
Projected O-line
LT — Garry Gilliam
LG — Alex Boone or Graham Glasgow
C — Alex Mack or Graham Glasgow
RG — J.R. Sweezy
RT — Shon Coleman
So what’s the problem?
How motivated are the Seahawks to make a big splash on an outside free agent? Alex Boone is only 28 and could easily command $8m APY like Mike Iupati. You’d be asking him to play with two rookies, a raw left tackle and Sweezy. It seems like an ill-fit and defies what Pete Carroll said about keeping the team together. They haven’t made a big outside FA acquisition on the OL since Robert Gallery. Their willingness to just plug guys in at left guard (Carpenter, Bailey, Britt, McQuistan) also makes you wonder if center will be a bigger priority if they do bring in an outsider. It’s a shame Adam Bisnowaty seemingly didn’t declare — he could’ve been an ideal mid-round pick.
Other thoughts
It might be wrong to assume they’ll draft an offensive tackle in round one if Okung walks. After all, the starting right tackle in 2015 was an UDFA and we’re discussing whether he’ll switch to the blindside. Who ever heard of Breno Giacomini before the Seahawks made him a starter?
They might look at the interior with a Cody Whitehair type — or even draft a pass rusher or linebacker. There’s at least some chance their next starting right tackle is a long, SPARQ’d up mid-to-late rounder we’re not even discussing yet.
The tricky thing to work out is how do they find the balance between changes and simple improvement? Clearing out most of the existing line and starting again doesn’t seem very likely. Subtle additions with a sense of priority and increased competition appears to be the way forward. That’ll be hard to achieve if both Okung and Sweezy walk because you’re replacing as many as three or four fifths of your line.
My best guess? Sweezy re-signs, Okung gets a nice offer somewhere else. Gilliam moves to the left. They draft either Whitehair or a right tackle in the first round and use some middle round picks to add competition. There’s no reason to completely rule out the addition of a veteran center — especially if they save money on Okung.
Other notes
Graham Glasgow (C, Michigan) continues to shine at the Shrine practises…
WOW. Graham Glasgow/Michigan just pulled across the line of scrimmage and drove Terrance Smith/FSU into the ground.
He’s also not a major athlete and relies on power over quicks. The Seahawks tried to force the Drew Nowak project and kept Kristjan Sokoli on the roster. That suggests they want unique athleticism at the position. The problems on the O-line this year could force their hand to be adaptable and put that plan to one side. Glasgow arguably suits power vs the ZBS — but there’s enough second-level willingness to think he can fit either scheme.
Seattle’s willingness to draft Shrine Game stand-outs makes Glasgow one to monitor. With two late third round picks — that could be the range he leaves the board.
Kyler Fackrell is intriguing
With the likelihood of Bruce Irvin moving on to pastures new, the Seahawks are going to need to fill a hole at SAM linebacker.
Utah State’s Kyler Fackrell is certainly one to monitor.
At +34.4 he is our highest graded 3-4 OLB, with the highest grade as a pass rusher, against the run, and sixth-highest in coverage just for good measure.
He missed most of the 2014 season with a serious knee injury before returning this season. He only had four sacks but PFF seems to like what he did (although some of their grades can be a little hard to fathom). He’s 6-5 and 250lbs.
Based on what I’ve watched so far he gets around the field, has some talent working the edge and getting off blocks. He occasionally whiffs in coverage against quicker receivers but he’s not a lost cause.
I’m going to do a new mock draft tomorrow. There’s also a lot of new content on the blog in the last few days so make sure you head to the homepage and scroll down.
