The Seahawks will trade down from #21. We all know that.
It’s very difficult to project a trade (we had to do it for a full draft season last year). I’m going to offer the same proposal here that was involved in our latest mock draft. It’s a deal with Buffalo.
Ultimately the team, the terms and the scenario don’t matter. Really this is just an exercise to fill out Seattle’s board for a projection.
Here’s the deal…
In our last mock we had Buffalo trading down in round one (going from #9 to #12). They acquired a third round pick. This gave the Bills two picks in the third, fourth and fifth round. It seems ample stock to try and trade back into round one to try and build around young quarterback Josh Allen. So we had them trade from #40 up to #21 for Jonah Williams. The Seahawks, for moving down 19 spots, receive a third, fourth and fifth round pick.
Here’s what they’d end up with:
R2 (#40)
R3 (#76)
R3 (#85)
R4 (#118)
R4 (#125)
R5 (#148)
R5 (#149)
I have no idea whether this is realistic or not. The Seahawks might not want to trade down that far in one go. The Bills might not want to aggressively trade back into round one. It’s difficult to make sense of what could happen — especially this early in the process.
For now, this is what I’m going with.
If something like this did happen, it’s possible the Seahawks could trade down again from #40. This feels like a draft with some day three value. With Pete Carroll emphasising a desire for competition rather than any specific positional need, collecting day three picks seems like a realistic target.
At this point it’s also worth remembering the Seahawks only have 47 players contracted in 2019. Only three teams have fewer and that includes the Los Angeles Rams (who are yet to sign anyone to a futures contract because their season is yet to be completed).
While some are suggesting the Seahawks can make a significant free agent splurge — the reality is they have to prioritise retaining their own, find a solution to the Wilson/Wagner/Reed/Clark dilemma and fill out their roster. There’s not enough money to do all of those things and add a $15-20m free agent. They’re going to need to look for value and let free agency come to them.
It also means they’re going to need a decent collection of draft picks. Thus, the potential to trade down more than once.
It’s probably not the most exciting thing to consider for fans. Some will want a splash. They want to see a couple of big names added, believing it could push Seattle ‘over the top’. The Seahawks already have most of the pieces to contend. They need some of their younger players to take a big step forward in 2019, they need greater depth on both sides of the ball and they need competition.
If Anthony Barr’s market is chilly when free agency begins — that could be an opportunity to repeat the Bennett/Avril heist of 2013. Aside from any prospective moves like that, the biggest free agent acquisition they might make is a quality kicker. And who would argue with that? Their one ‘splurge’ could be to sign Stephen Gostkowski away from the Patriots. It could be to go and get Robbie Gould from the Niners. They’ve had three inconsistent years of kicking. It’s time to sort that out.
Anyway, back to the mock. It’s a post-Senior Bowl projection so it’s heavily influenced by what happened in Mobile (and to a lesser extent, the Shrine Game). The combine will change things of course. We’ll do another seven-rounder after that to see how things have changed.
R2 (#40) — Will Grier (QB, West Virginia)
I firmly believe the Seahawks will target and draft a quarterback this year. We’ve gone over the reasons why, relating to Russell Wilson’s contract. Why Grier? I wrote a more detailed explanation here. He was the best deep-ball thrower in college football for the last two years and specialises in explosive pass-plays on go-routes. He elevated West Virginia and led them to significant wins (eg Texas on the road). John Schneider attended the Oklahoma vs West Virginia game in person. It’s possible Grier could be available in round three. It’s possible they could trade down again from this spot and land him later in round two. Regardless, I believe they will strongly consider drafting a quarterback early.
R3 (#76) — Khalen Saunders (DT, Western Illinois)
I like everything about Khalen Saunders. He dominated at a small-school level. He’s strong enough to toss linemen to the ground, he controls the POA, he can shoot gaps with quickness and swim/rip to the backfield. You see him working down the line to stretch out runs and he even took some snaps at DE. He can do back-flips at over 300lbs. He’s a sensational athlete with massive potential and great character. He was a ‘wow’ performer at the Senior Bowl. The only thing that makes me pause is arm length. The Seahawks nearly always draft defensive linemen with +33 inch arms and Saunders’ are listed at 32 3/8 inches. The short shuttle will be big for for him. If he runs it in the 4.5’s — that’s Seattle’s ball-park.
R3 (#85) — L.J. Collier (DE, TCU)
Collier is a fantastic prospect. I’d bang the table for him. He stood out at the Senior Bowl. Right off the bat in practise #1 he drove Dalton Risner to the turf and it set the tone for a fantastic week. He won with a bull rush, won with a speed rush. He used hand-technique to disengage, he extends his arms to keep his frame clean, he converted speed-to-power and showed a good dip and bend to attack the edge. On tape he consistently found a way to make splash plays. In the Bowl game against California he had this one play where he absorbed a double team then just powered his way through both blockers to hammer the running back for a four-yard loss on a stretch run. He has nearly 35-inch arms and an 81 1/4 inch wingspan which is freaky length for a 6-2 lineman. We’ll need to see how he tests at the combine but if the Seahawks can’t get a pass rusher with their first pick — Collier could be a great alternative here.
R4 (#118) — Jamal Peters (CB, Mississippi State)
Last month Tony Pauline reported the Seahawks had interest in Peters. He has 33 1/8 inch arms and he’s 6-2 and 217lbs. He looks like a big, physical cornerback and his play matches the profile. He struggled for turnovers in college and it’s what likely keeps him on the board. He needs to learn to track the ball and find ways to impact games. That said, he’s a tough tackler and is willing to lay a hit. The Seahawks are likely to add a cornerback to the competition on day three.
R4 (#125) — Drew Sample (TE, Washington)
Sample had such a good Senior Bowl he might not actually last this far. He did everything well. In catching drills he showed an ability to get open over the middle. I didn’t see him drop a pass in any practise session. In the blocking drills the Raiders had the TE’s block on an island and he even excelled there which was extremely impressive. The Seahawks could do with adding a tight end with Will Dissly returning from injury and Nick Vannett one year away from free agency.
R5 (#148) — Khalil Hodge (LB, Buffalo)
Hodge put up huge numbers at Buffalo, collecting hundreds of tackles. He’s not a dynamic athlete capable of making rangy plays in coverage. However, he fills gaps well in the running game and can sprint to the sideline to lay a hit. There’s untapped potential with Hodge who has the kind of grit and leadership Seattle has targeted regularly. Tony Pauline reported at the Shrine Game that many in the league believe the Seahawks really like Hodge.
R5 (#149) — Alec Ingold (FB, Wisconsin)
Seattle’s offense is set up to feature a full back. They spent most of last season without one. They could put that right in 2019. There aren’t many orthodox full backs in college football but Ingold fits the bill. He’s exactly what you want from the position. He’s physical, he’s effective in short yardage situations, he has decent hands and special teams value. He had one crack-back block in the Senior Bowl that had Jon Gruden marching onto the field to give him a high-five. It won’t be a surprise if the Seahawks go after Ingold.
Full projection
R2 (#40) — Will Grier (QB, West Virginia)
R3 (#76) — Khalen Saunders (DT, Western Illinois)
R3 (#85) — L.J. Collier (DE, TCU)
R4 (#118) — Jamal Peters (CB, Mississippi State)
R4 (#125) — Drew Sample (TE, Washington)
R5 (#148) — Khalil Hodge (LB, Buffalo)
R5 (#149) — Alec Ingold (FB, Wisconsin)
What you’re getting from the class
Depth and competition at key areas on the defense — pass rush, defensive tackle, linebacker and cornerback. You’re getting day three value on offense with a tight end and full back who should be able to contribute quickly. The first pick isn’t an ‘impact’ player but it could be a vital addition considering Russell Wilson’s contract situation.
Players likely to be gone
We’ve talked a lot about Montez Sweat (EDGE), T.J. Hockenson (TE) and Kyler Murray (QB). Currently I’m not expecting any of those players to be available if Seattle trades down. Hockenson and Murray probably won’t make it to pick #21 let alone round two. Parris Campbell (WR) and Andre Dillard (T) could also be gone. We’ll see on Terry McLaurin (WR) too. I think at least 12 defensive linemen and two linebackers will go in round one.
Alternative options
The Seahawks appear set to lose K.J. Wright in free agency (he will get paid) and the future is unclear for Mychael Kendricks. Even if Kendricks avoids jail and is re-signed, they could do with more depth at the position. New Mexico State linebacker Terrill Hanks has an 80 1/2 inch wingspan and similar length to Wright. He had a terrific Senior Bowl with many comparing his performance to that of Darius Leonard a year ago. Hanks will need to prove he has the agility and speed for the next level at the combine. If he achieves that he could be an option for the Seahawks in round two.
Renell Wren is 6-4, 315lbs and reportedly runs a 4.85 and jumps a 34.5 inch vertical. He can also bench 430lbs and squat 600lbs. There aren’t many humans like Wren. He’s built like a tank. You’re always going to pay attention to an athlete like that. He’s being touted as a second or third round pick.
Chuma Edoga (T, USC) was outstanding at the Senior Bowl at left tackle and could be added to provide some quality tackle depth and long term security. He really looked the part in Mobile.
Lonnie Johnson (CB, Kentucky) had an impressive Senior Bowl and has the size (6-2, 220lbs) and arm length (32 1/4 inch arms) that the Seahawks like. Jim Nagy described Marquise Blair (S, Utah) as a ‘Seahawks’ type safety. He’s quick and hits like an absolute hammer. He might be a late round or UDFA target. Seattle reportedly took an interest in Terry Godwin (WR, Georgia) at the Shrine Game. He’s a former four-star recruit with a lot of potential.
Chris Lindstrom (G, Boston College) and Kalen McGary (T, Washington) both really impressed in Mobile. Both players are tough and physical with great attitude. Ben Powers (G, Oklahoma) showed well last week as did Bobby Okereke (LB, Stanford), Charles Omenihu (DE, Texas) and Byron Cowart (DE, Maryland).
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