Month: April 2019 (Page 3 of 4)

I couldn’t decide whether to include a Frank Clark trade or not in this projection.

Poona Ford, Rasheem Green, Quinton Jefferson, Branden Jackson, Nazair Jones, Jacob Martin, Jamie Meder, Nate Orchard, Cassius Marsh, Jarran Reed.

That’s Seattle’s D-line without Frank Clark.

There’s a pass rush problem for the Seahawks if they trade Clark. A big problem.

And that’s why I still think that unless they get a fantastic offer he’ll play on the franchise tag (or sign a new contract) in 2019.

Even so — Michael Lombardi is the latest voice this week to say he’s hearing rumblings of a potential trade. We’ve been here before of course — with Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman. Will things be different this time?

It’s still hard to believe. Only a few weeks ago Pete Carroll was defiantly stating Clark would be a Seahawk. Nothing has really changed since then. The franchise tag was expected, Demarcus Lawrence and Trey Flowers getting paid big money was distinctly possible and the Seahawks would’ve hoped to get a deal done with Russell Wilson.

Even with a great D-line class this year it’s difficult to imagine Seattle’s average pass rush not taking a step backwards minus Clark.

For that reason I think any deal likely has to include second round compensation plus a swap of first round picks. The Seahawks need to be within range of the top pass rushers in this draft to move Clark and they need to be able to pad out their board.

I decided ultimately not to include a Clark trade. Here’s the mock in full with details below:

First round

#1 Arizona — Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma)
#2 San Francisco — Nick Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
#3 Green Bay (via NYJ) — Quinnen Williams (DT, Alabama)
#4 Oakland — Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
#5 Tampa Bay — Devin White (LB, LSU)
#6 New York Giants — Josh Allen (EDGE, Kentucky)
#7 Jacksonville — T.J. Hockenson (TE, Iowa)
#8 Detroit — Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
#9 Washington (via BUF) — Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)
#10 Denver — Jonah Williams (T, Alabama)
#11 Cincinnati — Daniel Jones (QB, Duke)
#12 New York Jets (via GB) — Andre Dillard (T, Washington State)
#13 Miami — Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
#14 Atlanta — Montez Sweat (EDGE, Mississippi State)
#15 Buffalo (via WAS) — Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
#16 Carolina — Devin Bush (LB, Michigan)
#17 New York Giants (via CLE) — Jawaan Taylor (T, Florida)
#18 Minnesota — Cody Ford (T, Oklahoma)
#19 Tennessee — Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
#20 Pittsburgh — Byron Murphy (CB, Washington)
#21 Kansas City (via SEA) — D.K. Metcalf (WR, Ole Miss)
#22 Baltimore — Erik McCoy (C, Texas A&M)
#23 Houston — Chris Lindstrom (G, Boston College)
#24 Oakland — Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State)
#25 Philadelphia — Brian Burns (EDGE, Florida State)
#26 Indianapolis — Rock Ya-Sin (CB, Temple)
#27 Oakland (via DAL) — Greedy Williams (CB, LSU)
#28 LA Chargers — Noah Fant (TE, Iowa)
#29 Arizona (via SEA) — Marquise Brown (WR, Oklahoma)
#30 New York Jets (via GB) — Garrett Bradbury (C, NC State)
#31 LA Rams — Josh Jacobs (RB, Alabama)
#32 New England — Jeffery Simmons (DT, Mississippi State)

Second round

#33 Seattle (via ARI) — Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State)
#34 Indianapolis (via NYJ) — N’Keal Harry (WR, Arizona State)
#35 Oakland — Irv Smith Jr (TE, Alabama)
#36 San Francisco — Justin Layne (CB, Michigan State)
#37 New York Giants — Will Grier (QB, West Virginia)
#38 Jacksonville — L.J. Collier (DE, TCU)
#39 Tampa Bay — Lonnie Johnson (CB, Kentucky)
#40 Buffalo — Dawson Knox (TE, Ole Miss)
#41 Denver — Johnathan Abram (S, Mississippi State)
#42 Cincinnati — Kaleb McGary (T, Washington)
#43 Detroit — Juan Thornhill (S, Virginia)
#44 Green Bay — A.J. Brown (WR, Ole Miss)
#45 Atlanta — Dalton Risner (T, Kansas State)
#46 Buffalo (via WAS) — Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)
#47 Carolina — Darnell Savage (S, Maryland)
#48 Miami — Dru Samia (G, Oklahoma)
#49 Cleveland — Greg Little (T, Ole Miss)
#50 Minnesota — Jerry Tillery (DT, Notre Dame)
#51 Tennessee — Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (S, Florida)
#52 Pittsburgh — Deebo Samuel (WR, South Carolina)
#53 Philadelphia (via BAL) — Dre’Mont Jones (DT, Ohio State)
#54 Houston (via SEA) — 
Tytus Howard (T, Alabama State)
#55 Houston — Isaiah Johnson (CB, Houston)
#56 New England (via CHI) — Kahale Warring (TE, San Diego State)
#57 Philadelphia — Marquise Blair (S, Utah)
#58 Dallas — Trysten Hill (DT, UCF)
#59 Indianapolis — Taylor Rapp (S, Washington)
#60 LA Chargers — Bobby Okereke (LB, Stanford)
#61 Kansas City — Joe Jackson (DE, Miami)
#62 New Orleans — Deandre Baker (CB, Georgia)
#63 Kansas City (via LAR) — Elgton Jenkins (C, Mississippi State)
#64 New England — Zach Allen (DE, Boston College)

The trades explained

Green Bay trades #12 & #30 to the Jets for #3
The Packers make a bold move to go up and get an elite talent from this draft (Quinnen Williams) to complete their defense. The Jets are reportedly desperate to move down.

Washington trades #15 & #46 to Buffalo for #9
The Redskins are going to spend the next two years paying a fortune to Alex Smith. They need to add a young quarterback. Rather than trade for Josh Rosen, they move up here to get Drew Lock.

Kansas City trades #29, #93 & #216 to Seattle for #21
The Chiefs have a big call to make on Tyreek Hill and might decide to jump ahead of Baltimore to ensure they get whoever is their preferred receiver in this class. D.K. Metcalf’s downfield speed would be a good fit with Patrick Mahomes.

Arizona trades #33 & #104 to Seattle for #29
The Cardinals trade in front of the Jets (who could be in the market for a weapon for Sam Darnold) to reunite Kyler Murray and Marquise Brown.

Thoughts on the Seahawks

A lot of the top defensive line talent is gone by the time the Seahawks are on the clock. Thus, they have to look at receiver and nickel. This isn’t a big problem considering the depth on the D-line and options available throughout this draft (plus in this projection they keep Frank Clark).

The Seahawks also invited Allen Bailey, Corey Liuget and Al Woods for a visit. They previously met with Nick Perry. This could be a market they tap into after the draft.

They’ve shown interest in N’Keal Harry and his 22% scoring rate on deep targets is an appealing statistic for this offense. However, this time I paired them with Terry McLaurin. He’ll have an immediate impact on special teams, he loves to block, he has a fantastic attitude and he performed exceptionally well at the Senior Bowl and combine. McLaurin has a first-rate personality and could be Doug Baldwin’s heir apparent. They already share an agent.

It’s difficult to judge McLaurin’s range. Many have him graded in the middle rounds. There’s also been talk of him going in round one. It’s pretty likely the Seahawks like McLaurin given his playing style and athletic profile but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll value him this early. That said — the player drafted at #20 will have a similar rating to the player drafted at #50 this year. It’s that type of class. You just have to pick your poison.

Urban Meyer had the following to say about McLaurin’s special teams value:

“Terry might have taken over the title as the best (gunner) I’ve had… It’s with great reverence I say that. You go back all the way to Brad Roby, to Devin Smith, to Denzel Ward, Gareon Conley. Terry is as good as there is.”

And here’s the view of an anonymous personnel man:

“He is like the anti-wide receiver… Zero diva. He understands special teams, and that’s how you get on the field. It’s just his whole mindset. Some guys say that and it’s bull—-. This kid really gets it.

“He’s sharp. He’s at a different level. He’s so far above most college players when it comes to how he presents himself. There’s no way you miss on this guy. I don’t know if he’ll ever be a Pro Bowler (at wide receiver) but he’s going to be a really dependable player for a long time. There’s no downside.”

One thing that’s interesting is the sheer number of defensive backs that are visiting the Seahawks. Justin Layne took an official-30 visit today (the final day for visits). Darnell Savage, Juan Thornhill, Corrion Ballard, Derrek Thomas and Sean Bunting also made a trip to Seattle and we know they met with Chauncey Gardner-Johnson.

The Seahawks don’t take defensive backs early but they do need more depth, competition and quality. It could mean nothing but it’s worth raising.

Seven round Seahawks projection

R2 (#33) — Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State)
R3 (#85) — Charles Omenihu (DE, Texas)
R3 (#93) — Marvell Tell (S, USC)
R4 (#104) — Armon Watts (DT, Arkansas)
R4 (#125) — Kaden Smith (TE, Stanford)
R5 (#160) — Greg Gaines (DT, Washington)
R6 (#216) — Derrek Thomas (CB, Baylor)

Notes on each pick

R2 (#33) — Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State)
Special teams dynamo, willing blocker, fantastic athlete, playmaker.

R3 (#85) — Charles Omenihu (DE, Texas)
He has the size and length to play base-end and his short shuttle (4.36) will appeal.

R3 (#93) — Marvell Tell (S, USC)
Fantastic agility testing and length makes him an appealing hybrid DB.

R4 (#104) — Armon Watts (DT, Arkansas)
Terrific length and power to anchor vs the run with plus pass-rushing upside.

R4 (#125) — Kaden Smith (TE, Stanford)
One of the few TE’s in this class to run a sub-7.10 three-cone.

R5 (#160) — Greg Gaines (DT, Washington)
The Seahawks are reportedly interested in Gaines.

R6 (#216) — Derrek Thomas (CB, Baylor)
A converted receiver, Thomas looked like a Seahawks corner at the combine.

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Seattle’s next big decision is about Frank Clark

A full stop on the Wilson contract saga

I’d recommend this piece from Michael Silver reviewing the moments that led to Russell Wilson agreeing terms with the Seahawks. It highlights how both sides compromised to get a deal done and how the Seahawks, while clearly committed to keeping their star quarterback, were unwilling to change the face of NFL contracts forever. They stuck to their plan and it worked.

What happens with Frank Clark?

Let’s get one thing straight. If the Seahawks want to pay Frank Clark, they can.

An increasing number of people are trying to convince you that there’s only one way to succeed — their way. That all you have to do is follow their rules. Follow their formula. Their way of playing offense. Their way of team building.

This isn’t the case. Not in football and not in many other sports. There’s no ‘one size fits all’ blueprint. Getting rid of your good players and trying to replace them with cheap, unproven rookies is fraught with just as much danger — probably more in fact — than building around a small core of extremely talented players.

There are consequences. You will have to make savings somewhere. The Seahawks have a Head Coach with a track record of developing defensive backs. They could churn through young talent at corner and safety in order to save money.

You also have to draft well. The Seahawks did a fine job picking the likes of Frank Clark, Tyler Lockett and Jarran Reed. They found a franchise quarterback in round three and previously built a legendary defense on the cheap.

The idea that paying quality players is a death knell for your chances of succeeding is an illusion. And with so many young quarterbacks set to be paid over the next three years, most of the NFL will be facing the same challenge.

It’s possible the Seahawks believe the price is too high for Clark. He’s an excellent young pass rusher with further room to grow. He’s not, however, a game-wrecker like Aaron Donald or Khalil Mack. The next contract he signs will put him in their pay range. Yet weaker players such as Trey Flowers are earning $18m a year. This is the going rate these days.

My prediction is that Clark will play out the 2019 season on the franchise tag and won’t sign a new deal or be traded.

The cost for a defensive end isn’t likely to change too much in the next 12 months. With Wilson signed, it’s possible the Seahawks could franchise tag Clark again in 2020. If he takes another step forward in 2019, you might be more inclined to pay him elite money next year.

Assuming they can get a deal done with Bobby Wagner — and that should be fairly straight forward given his importance to the team — there’s no real reason to rush on anything with Clark. That’s the bonus of knowing the franchise tag is available next year following Wilson’s extension.

Signing him to top-level money seems premature given it still feels like we haven’t seen the absolute best of Clark. There’s more to come. If he proves it in 2019, he’ll fully deserve a big extension.

Despite rumours to the contrary, trading Clark still seems unlikely for two key reasons.

Firstly, this is an outstanding draft class for defensive linemen. Every team in the league is trying to find a financial advantage. Trading a high pick, giving up the chance of owning a cost-effective rookie and claiming the chance to pay Clark +$65m guaranteed isn’t logical unless the Seahawks are willing to give him away like the Chiefs and Dee Ford.

Secondly, Seattle’s pass rush wasn’t that great in 2018 anyway. Trading away their best defensive lineman would create a serious hole.

For all the people saying ‘just trade him’ — you can’t force teams to make a great trade offer. It’s possible the offers aren’t there — plus the desire to pay him a long-term extension isn’t there. If that’s the case, there’s no other option but to play out the 2019 season.

What kind of a trade might work?

Forget about a high first round pick. Forget about conservative GM’s like Chris Ballard in Indianapolis being prepared to give up first round picks.

The kind of scenario that could potentially get this done is the one we proposed in early March.

Essentially it would involve a swap of first rounders.

The Seahawks would need to pick in the top-12 to justify trading Clark. That’s their only chance to replace him with a top-tier pass rusher from this rookie class.

My original proposal involved the Bills and I’ll continue to use them for the purpose of this example. You might prefer an alternative team.

Here’s the idea — the Seahawks get #9 and the Bills get #21. Buffalo then gives the Seahawks their second round pick (#40) and possibly a fourth round pick (they have two this year).

That way the Bills still get a chance to spend a first rounder to build around their young quarterback. They also acquire a quality pass rusher. The Seahawks can try to replace Clark with a top-10 pick and they get the opportunity to fill out their draft board with extra picks in rounds two and four (taking their total to six instead of four).

They could draft someone like Rashan Gary or Montez Sweat (or trade down and look at Clelin Ferrell) while gaining the #40 pick to spend on a receiver or a nickel hybrid.

Of course if they simply keep Clark they can trade down from #21 as many times as they want and collect a receiver, nickel or another pass rusher anyway.

Thoughts on the draft

It’s still difficult to project what might happen considering the Seahawks are destined to trade down from #21 to acquire more picks. They’ll probably trade down more than once too.

The biggest need is arguably adding to the pass rush but the depth of the D-line class offers some possible relief there. If they want to they can wait on that area. It depends who lasts into range. If they trade Frank Clark this becomes a much greater priority.

It’s a top-heavy receiver class. While there’s some relative depth later on, the best players will go early. With Wilson’s contract signed the Seahawks might feel obliged to provide him with another weapon — especially with uncertainty over Doug Baldwin’s future.

The nickel/safety/hybrid position is equally a bit top-heavy. And while many still think the Seahawks are looking at these players to replace Earl Thomas — I maintain they’re looking to replace Justin Coleman. Seattle played a lot more nickel last year and utilised Delano Hill as a big nickel. The safety hybrid’s in this draft are running in the 4.3’s and 4.4’s so can easily handle nickel duties. Plus many of them (Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Juan Thornhill, Darnell Savage, Amani Hooker) lined up at nickel in college.

These are the three areas to focus on with the first pick.

I’ll have a new mock out tomorrow.

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For the #Seahawks and QB Russell Wilson, it’s a 4-year extension worth $140M, source said. He beats Aaron Rogers as the highest-paid player in the NFL.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 16, 2019

Deadlines spur action. Crisis — and a longwinded saga — averted.

According to Tom Pelissero the structure hasn’t changed, there’s no percentages tied to the deal.

Both sides had to compromise. The Seahawks had to be willing to make Wilson the highest paid player in the league. Wilson had to be prepared not to change the NFL’s pay structure forever.

In the end common sense prevailed and thankfully, finally, this is resolved.

So what now?

We can move on and end any thought of a quarterback being drafted early. That’s no longer necessary. There’ll be no Wilson-to-the-Giants talk in the media any more.

The Seahawks will have to prove the naysayers wrong that you can’t win a Super Bowl paying top dollar for a quarterback. It’s a lot easier to win with a fantastic quarterback than it is to build a super-team capable of making up for a substandard QB.

Drafting well is the key. The Saints have been highly competitive while paying Drew Brees due to the way they’ve drafted — finding solutions at receiver, running back, left tackle, cornerback and pass rush without needing to tap into the free agent market.

There’s also a bit more pressure on Wilson now. His contract will receive more attention than ever. The Seahawks will also be under further scrutiny to get the best out of their prize asset. If you thought there were too many people criticising Pete Carroll’s (Super Bowl winning) football identity last year — wait and see what’ll happen moving forward.

Every future signing will need to be calculated. They’ve got a big call to make on Frank Clark, Bobby Wagner and Jarran Reed. Mike Garafolo says Wilson’s deal could lead to a Clark trade (which was on hold during negotiations with the quarterback). Replacing Clark as a pass rusher and one of the young leaders on the team won’t be easy. This is a great D-line class but the Seahawks, currently with only four draft picks, are not in position to target one of the best. And if they acquire a high pick for Clark — you could argue the merits of simply swapping him for a cheap, unproven rookie are questionable.

Still, many people will tell you that you can’t pay everyone. As positive as the Wilson news is — if they lose Frank Clark, a mediocre pass rush unit could be even worse.

The franchise tag will be available to the team in 2020 which is good news. This means they can realistically keep Wagner on the tag if they don’t want to agree terms on an $18m deal that usurps the mega-contract signed by C.J. Mosley. If they don’t trade Clark, back-to-back tags is a possible solution in the same way Dallas co-operated with Demarcus Lawrence.

As for the draft — that first pick is wide open. They will trade down from #21, inevitably. Then they have to weigh up the class. They’d need to replace Clark if he’s dealt and probably replace Dion Jordan and Shamar Stephen too. That wouldn’t be easy — but the D-line class is deep enough to offer some later round relief. With Wilson being paid big money they might feel obliged to further invest in the quarterback with another receiver. The nickel hybrid role also brings some value this year in a range where the Seahawks are likely picking.

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I wasn’t following Seahawks Twitter’s recent “most hated Seattleites” bracket all that closely, but if Pete Carroll wasn’t on there, he might be soon.

Seattle’s head coach, architect of two of the franchise’s NFC championships and its lone Lombardi trophy, is now considered by some to be the reason Russell Wilson deserves better than Seattle and is thus unlikely to stay.

The necessary rationalization has already taken place. Folks are already prepared to dismiss Carroll’s success as luck and a one-off, the casualty of an offensive system that is somehow outdated now but not five years ago, and has made Wilson incompatible with Seattle. They are conjecturing like mad telepaths on Wilson’s motives for his hardball approach: that the run-heavy Dallas game was the last straw, that Wilson wants to challenge himself by throwing more, and that he is pricing himself out of Seattle to get such an opportunity.

You’re seeing two versions of this: “Wilson deserves to play for a team that will utilize him”, and “Seattle shouldn’t pay 35 million a year for a QB in a run-first offense.”

Neither of these arguments makes much sense, or ever did.

Supposition #1: “Wilson deserves to play for a team that will properly utilize him.”

It’s typically assumed especially amongst sports media, that Wilson will be better utilized if he is asked to throw more.

It’s a superficial take that forgets one glaring aspect of Wilson’s game: his conservatism. Wilson is as conservative a thrower as Pete Carroll is an offensive coach.

How, you ask, might Wilson look in the kind of byzantine, pundit-praised mad-bomber offensive system that Seattle fans so envy? He might look in many ways like he does now. Wilson has always been a cautious, conservative thrower (until the 4th quarter). That’s not something Pete had to beat into his brain during his rookie camp. He came with it. He believes in ball security, and it’s one reason you could argue that he is already as much at home philosophically, in Seattle, as he ever will be.

How are people missing this? Wilson has never been a gunslinger. He doesn’t want to be. You’re talking about a guy who drops back, refuses to throw into coverage, waits for big separation, scrambles while waiting, and generally would rather take a sack than risk a throw where there’s no opening. It’s hard to argue. The resulting lack of turnovers is what’s helped keep Seattle competitive in all but two games in Wilson’s seven-year career.

Are there systems out there that could enable more throws for Wilson? Yeah. But it’s not just about passing more. You’d need a team whose offense is largely devoted to creating separation, and that brings up the specter of a team that’s invested big money in its guards, receivers, and tight ends – and might not have a ton of room for Wilson’s megadeal. It would also be relying on a cheap and green defense. Sounds like the Saints, right? Well, they’ve had a bottom-five defense almost perennially since their Super Bowl win, the only exceptions coming when Seattle was around to escort them out of the playoffs.

I know some are a fan of that approach to the point of blind faith. I am not. Wilson might balk as well.

If Sean Payton got a hold of Wilson, he’d want that ball to be actually leaving Wilson’s hands every once in a while, and Wilson doesn’t like that without a somewhat high degree of certainty. Some coordinators want a straight-up riverboat gambler. That’s one very simple reason his skill set does not automatically translate to just any pass-heavy team. Some fans might think they’re doing Wilson a favor by urging him to another team, but they might not be.

Supposition #2: “Seattle shouldn’t pay 35 million a year for a QB in a run-first offense.”

This one is just sort of weird, because it assumes the difficulty of the quarterback’s job is dependent on volume. It isn’t.

It isn’t. It’s hard because championships require a quarterback who can improvise, and those throws don’t get easier just because there are fewer of them.

Every once in a while, no matter how strong the running game and defense, there will be moments where the quarterback has to create on third down. That was true for Wilson’s NFC championship runs, and it’s true for every other run. The question of “who really created our Super Bowl season – Lynch, Wilson, or the defense” is a distraction. You need a complete team. Seattle had one, and it included a franchise QB who produced when the chips were down. Indeed, few QB’s in the league’s history have excelled at this quality, much less entertained fantastically with it, like Russell Wilson. It’s why he’s elite, despite only one Super Bowl ring. (Unless you think Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers’ one ring disqualifies them from elite status, too. And no, you didn’t think that until you read this paragraph.)

Seattle’s offense could feature a 70%-30% run-to-pass ratio and those tough throws would still be absolutely mandatory to a championship season. They don’t get easier because there are fewer of them.

Will a game manager like Tarvaris Jackson, or a rickety veteran like Eli Manning, or a career backup like Paxton Lynch make those clutch throws? I highly doubt it. Maybe one or two, but you’re massively narrowing the margin for error there. Teams win or lose Super Bowls by that margin.

A quarterback coming cheaper doesn’t make him a “better fit for Seattle”. I would say “that logic is absurd”, but it doesn’t deserve to be called logic. It’s really just passive-aggressive frustration with the Dallas game.

So, is Russell Wilson, even in Pete Carroll’s relatively run-heavy offense, worth $35 million a year? You bet he is. Yes, even if he’s not throwing as much. Simply because the sheer skill requirements of the position will never permit a lesser QB to succeed.

If you don’t like this, you’re free to speak to the NFL. They’re the ones who have made the quarterback position (and its natural predator the edge rusher – re: Frank Clark) so earth-haltingly important through the slow shifting of its offensive rules. It’s the way things are now. Just how complete an NFL team can be once Wilson (and Patrick Mahomes after him) blast the market open is a fair question, but make no mistake, Wilson – or a QB of his caliber – will be needed.

Letting passing volume dictate contract size would be failing for cheaper. It’s time to start cutting that out of the discussion.

1. This has been as ugly as expected

Threats to call off talks indefinitely, threats of breaking off talks altogether, rumours about trades to New York and mystery about Wilson’s desire to stay in Seattle.

This was always going to be a contentious affair. Both parties appear willing to do their bidding through the media and so it has proved.

The big question is — was it all posturing? An attempt to gain whatever leverage was available? Trying to win the PR battle? Or is there a serious disconnect here?

Deadlines often bring results. We’ll see if both parties are willing to compromise. It’s on both parties though. The Seahawks have to be willing to make Wilson the highest paid player in the league. Wilson has to be prepared to not change the face of NFL contracts forever.

2. Will they trade him if they can’t sign a deal today?

It seems virtually impossible. How many potential suitors are there? And how many are willing to pay a kings ransom in trade compensation then offer the kind of deal Wilson is seeking?

The New York Giants have the picks but don’t have a competitive roster. They’re seemingly prepared to roll with Eli Manning for one more season. They need to use #6, #17 and #37 to build their team. Next year, with Manning almost certainly done in New York, it would make sense to consider a big splash at quarterback. Currently that doesn’t seem likely and they may prefer to draft a young, affordable signal caller anyway.

There aren’t any real alternatives. The Raiders reportedly didn’t have the cash to put Khalil Mack’s full guarantees in escrow. Why would things be any different now? The Chargers are more likely to consider a move when Philip Rivers moves on. Twelve teams have drafted young quarterbacks in recent history. Several others have established starters while the Vikings signed Kirk Cousins a year ago and Jacksonville just paid Nick Foles.

Adam Schefter put together a report for ESPN earlier highlighting the issue:

“As for suggestions that the Seahawks could trade Wilson if he does not sign a new deal, there are no obvious teams willing to surrender draft picks or pay Wilson what he is seeking, sources said.”

If Wilson cuts off talks with the Seahawks an eventual trade becomes more likely but not this year.

3. So what would happen?

In all likelihood there’d be a dose of damage limitation from both parties, knowing there’s no alternative but to play out the 2019 season. This would become the status quo until a development emerged (either a serious trade offer or fresh contract talks).

We’ve been saying since the end of the 2018 season — if anyone was going to bet on himself it was Russell Wilson. The aggressive talks and seemingly improbable demands (eg wanting a percentage of the cap) are probably a sign of this. For Wilson it could easily be a case of make me an incredible offer or I’ll do a Kirk Cousins.

The Seahawks and Wilson might both be comfortable with that situation. It’s likely the team would prefer to bide their time rather than commit to a league-changing contract. Wilson would see the tag as a step closer to reaching the open market.

And while fans may say the Seahawks would be better off trading Wilson than rolling through a slow-dance of uncertainty — you can’t force a team to offer three first round picks. Essentially, both parties are stuck with each other for now.

4. What does this mean for the draft?

Maybe nothing. It all comes down to how they view the quarterback class. If they don’t fancy it there’s not much they can do. I’m going to keep mentioning the name Will Grier though. He does what the Seahawks offense needs. He makes downfield throws, manages the offense and he elevated West Virginia.

For more on Grier’s potential fit click here.

Since December I’ve been touting Kyler Murray and Grier as the two players I can imagine John Schneider admiring. It’s no surprise he attended the Oklahoma vs West Virginia game in person. Murray will go #1 overall. It’s unclear where Grier will land. Some think round one, others round three or later.

For the purpose of this piece let’s say he goes in the #25-#45 range. When the Seahawks trade back from #21 — if they like Grier as much as I think they might — they have to consider drafting him.

If Wilson and the Seahawks aren’t going to talk about a long term contract after today — they have no choice. They have to start identifying quarterbacks to draft. Because if Wilson won’t talk contract he’s either going to be traded in the next three years or he’ll eventually hit the open market.

They can’t and won’t sleepwalk into that. And while everyone will wring their hands about the pick, hammer the front office and complain they didn’t draft an ‘impact’ player — it’d actually be a wise investment for the future.

If/when Wilson leaves you don’t want to hand the keys of the franchise to an unprepared novice. ‘Having one in the chamber’ — as Schneider would put it — is important.

So don’t be shocked if the Seahawks draft a quarterback early this year if Wilson and the team don’t agree on an extension today.

5. What’s your prediction?

It’s been consistent from the day after the Dallas game. Wilson doesn’t agree a new deal this year, will back himself to play on the tag and in 2020 the team will have a major call to make about their next move. I think they will strongly consider drafting a quarterback, possibly Grier, as insurance for a potential divorce.

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Frank Clark won’t be leaving Seattle

According to Jay Glazer, trade talks concerning Frank Clark have died down. Glazer originally suggested teams were calling about Clark back in March. He name-checked the Bills as a suitor, before the team denied the link.

Now Glazer says the likelihood is Clark will stay with the Seahawks. This isn’t a surprise. With a fantastic 2019 defensive line class in the draft and the need to pay Clark at least $65m guaranteed after giving up a high pick, a trade became increasingly unlikely. Now the question is can the Seahawks get a long term deal done before July 15th or will he play on the franchise tag and become a free agent in 2020?

Russell Wilson wants out of Seattle?

Another weekend, another load of weird drama in the Russell Wilson contract saga.

Firstly, Jake Heaps tweeted that John Schneider and Mark Rodgers had been spending hours together trying to work out a deal. Many saw this as a breakthrough, although Heaps had only 24 hours earlier suggested there was an alarming lack of traction in talks.

Then Mike Florio wrote an article, seemingly from the Seahawks perspective, that the team isn’t sure Wilson wants to stay in Seattle:

“Per a league source, the Seahawks think that Wilson would like to play elsewhere, even if he hasn’t and wouldn’t ever say it. They also believe that this unspoken dynamic will cause Wilson to drive a harder bargain with them than he would with another team.”

Shortly after, NFL insider and intrepid reporter Tyrann Mathieu tweeted the following:

Russ wants New York. But you ain’t heard that from T.. https://t.co/AWGBUAjaWj

— Tyrann Mathieu (@Mathieu_Era) April 14, 2019

Then today Florio opined on Wilson again — hinting strongly that he’s looking for a percentage of the cap per year:

“If the Seahawks want to avoid embarking on a year-to-year franchise-tag dance with Wilson, which would culminate in a one-year tender of $52.43 million in 2022, they likely will need to be willing to give Wilson insurance against spikes in the cap and, in turn, growth in the market that could result in players like Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, and Baker Mayfield leapfrogging Wilson while he works through the years of his third NFL deal.”

Although not quoting any sources, this reads like a direct response from the Wilson camp to Florio’s earlier report about the Seahawks thinking the player would like to play elsewhere.

Life’s never dull in Seattle. And don’t say we didn’t warn you. This latest saga is already well past the Earl Thomas drama from a year ago.

So what can we make of all this?

It reads like the two parties continuing to play out negotiations through the media — a staple for both since the end of the season. Battling for the upper hand is normal in negotiations of this nature. Public opinion also matters.

Deadlines force action. We’ll see if both sides are willing to compromise in the 11th hour. By Tuesday this could all be a load of hot air from both parties in the middle of a heated negotiation.

That said, it really looks like Wilson is coming at this from two positions:

1. Re-set the quarterback contracts market as a Seahawk

2. If the team won’t do that, play out on the tag and follow a similar path to Kirk Cousins

If that’s the position — it’s no wonder Adam Schefter, Jack del Rio and others are at least touting the possibility of a trade. The Seahawks aren’t going to sleepwalk into a scenario where Wilson walks as a free agent in 2022. If he shuts down negotiations after April 15th — they basically have one more off-season to work this out. Get a deal done or make a trade.

Let’s speculate for a moment and consider the possibility that the Seahawks are willing to make Wilson the highest paid player in the league based on APY. If Wilson’s response is to continue to ask for a league-changing percentage of the cap guaranteed — it’s no wonder they might start to question his desire to remain in Seattle (thus, Florio’s report and all the trade talk).

Compromise from both parties was always going to be necessary. Are both willing to compromise?

We’ll probably find out in the next 24 hours.

My prediction hasn’t changed. I doubt Wilson signs a new contract before April 15th and will play the 2019 season in Seattle. Then in the 2020 off-season he will be tagged and the Seahawks will be left with a big call — either give in to Wilson’s demands or trade him.

And I’ll say it again for the 456th time this off-season. If there’s no deal before the draft and if this is heading to a stand-off in 12 months time — they have to seriously consider spending a high pick on a quarterback.

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Chauncey Gardner-Johnson made several TFL’s at nickel

The Seahawks will set out to fill as many needs as possible. Some are more important than others. They need to bolster the defensive line. They could do with adding another nickel defender having lost the impressive Justin Coleman. Doug Baldwin’s possible retirement increases the need at receiver.

And of course there’s quarterback. It has to be a consideration early if the right player is available and Russell Wilson’s contract remains unresolved by the draft.

There are also lesser needs where some extra competition or forward planning is needed — such as tight end and outside cornerback.

Identifying players in different ranges who can fill these needs is the key. They might spend their first pick on their biggest need (arguably the D-line) but they could also use the extreme strength of the defensive line class to their advantage.

For example — if they want to add a base end to replace Dion Jordan (someone in the 270-285lbs range) there are several strong options. We know the Seahawks like their defensive linemen to have length, quickness and agility. Several of the bigger base ends and five-technique types in this class excelled in the short shuttle. So while they’ve shown interest in two earlier round prospects (Rashan Gary and L.J. Collier) there are plenty of others who could be available in the rounds 3-4 range.

The recent additions of Nate Orchard and Cassius Marsh, coupled with a strong first year for Jacob Martin, could lessen the need for an EDGE. It’s not a particularly deep EDGE class. Not compared to DE and DT. It’s possible someone like Brian Burns lasts longer than many of the media are suggesting and he could be a target. Failing that, they might wait on the position or ignore it all together if they can get a pass rushing base end.

If they wait on the defensive line it opens things up with the first pick. They recently met with N’Keal Harry and are meeting with Parris Campbell. There are other receivers who could be appealing in the #20-50 range. The Seahawks might be inclined to strongly consider taking a receiver first. The depth is weaker than it is at defensive line. Again, this is about adding as many impact players as possible and filling several needs. The draft is a puzzle and you need to work out the right range to target specific positions.

While receiver is a possible early round option, quarterback and nickel could be too. We’ll see what happens with Russell Wilson and not go over old ground there. The one quarterback we’ve latched onto is Will Grier as a fit for their offense. Grier won’t be sitting in the middle rounds. If they want to take him, they’ll have to consider doing it early.

Then there’s the nickel position. It’s similar to the receivers. There are a cluster who could go in round two. If you wait until rounds 3-4 you might miss out. So again, it’s something to consider. If you want a playmaking defensive back with versatility you might need to go in that direction with the first pick.

The Seahawks have visited with a number of defensive backs. While a lot of people think the Seahawks are trying to replace Earl Thomas, I think they’re trying to replace Justin Coleman.

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Juan Thornhill both did a lot of work lined up at nickel. Eric Galko linked the Seahawks to Byron Murphy in a mock draft. Lance Zierlein describes Darnell Savage as, ‘a day-two hybrid defender offering early starting potential as a two-high zone or slot cover talent‘.

All have experience working as a nickel, ‘big nickel’ or hybrid defender.

You might argue — ‘but the Seahawks don’t utilize a big nickel’.

You’d be surprised.

During the 2018 season, Delano Hill played 32.29% of the defensive snaps. He only started two games in relief of Tedric Thompson. Justin Coleman played 67.81% of the snaps. This tells us a couple of things. Firstly, the Seahawks played nickel in base for most of 2018. Secondly, they used Hill as a big nickel in various situations (or at least used three-safety formations).

The Patriots nullified the Rams in the Super Bowl by lining up safeties at the LOS to combat the sweeps and misdirection. The NFL is a copycat league and teams will try to mimic a lot of what the Rams do on offense. Having the personnel to handle this — and specifically the Rams — will be important. It’s even better if you can find a hybrid defender, capable of switching to various positions and roles. One week you might need to match-up against a tight end. The next you might have the responsibility of playing read/react against the Rams. Another week you might have to fill in at safety.

The great thing about the 2019 safety class is many of the players have experienced playing multiple roles and most have the necessary speed for this to translate to the next level.

I’ve said before that I think the Seahawks like their existing safeties more than the fans and media. Pete Carroll in particular seems to really like the potential of Delano Hill. He had a strong end to the regular season. Bradley McDougald has become one of the most important players on the team. Tedric Thompson provides some depth. They traded for Shalom Luani. Competition is required — but forcing Hill to the bench isn’t a gigantic problem that needs fixing.

The Seahawks have to fill the holes left by Justin Coleman and the two departures on the D-line (Shemar Stephen, Dion Jordan). If they can replace Coleman with a hybrid defender and not a one-dimensional player — even better. It’ll only help the defense.

Gardner-Johnson, Thornhill and Murphy have all shown an ability to take the ball away. That’s something else the Seahawks need to replace. There’s an assumption they’ll be able to fill the nickel vacancy with ease, given the way they plucked Coleman away from the Patriots. Yet Coleman made big plays — three interceptions and three touchdowns — during his time in Seattle. Finding someone who can make up for that and maybe add more takeaways would be a plus.

Thornhill had six interceptions in 2018 while both Murphy and Gardner-Johnson had four.

Being a strong run defender is also very important at nickel.

Murphy stands out in that regard, as we noted in our review of him a couple of weeks ago. He hits like a hammer when given the chance, is sudden and quick to the ball-carrier and he can tackle.

Thornhill tested superbly at the combine and I think this best shows up on tape when he’s reading the play, running to the ball carrier and tackling. There are examples where he runs across the line, works through traffic and makes a tackle behind the LOS.

Murphy had four TFL’s in 2018 while Thornhill had 4.5.

But if you really want a player who excels in this area Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is your man.

I watched four of his games yesterday and the one thing I didn’t notice when watching him during the season is the way he sheds or avoids blocks to break to the ball carrier and tackle. He does it time and time again. Any throws to the flat, any screens or stretch runs — he’s very good at either avoiding blocks with agility/speed or simply bench-pressing the blocker and winning with power. College receivers couldn’t contain him.

This shows up in the stat sheet — he had 9.5 TFL’s in 2018.

I’d probably describe the trio this way — Murphy is more sudden and talented, Thornhill the fastest and most explosive and Gardner-Johnson the more complete. Strictly viewing all three as potential hybrid nickel defenders, Murphy is the best player. Thornhill has the most upside. Gardner-Johnson is the most likely to adjust to the league quickly given the way he handles the dirty work at the nickel (taking on blocks, defending the run, making plays behind the LOS). It’s probably not surprising given he made the full-time switch to nickel at Florida.

All three players are strong candidates to be a hybrid defender and all three could go in the top-50.

If they opt to pepper their D-line and pass rush with additions from the middle rounds onwards, adding a playmaking defensive back feels like a possibility. It doesn’t mean it will happen. However this year, unlike last, it feels like there are a few options for the Seahawks.

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Two things today. I was invited onto the Waxing Lyrical podcast to talk about the Seahawks and the draft. By bit starts 17 minutes in. Check it out below. Plus Adam Schefter has also been giving further thoughts on the Russell Wilson situation today…

Great show this week, ⁦@Mainzey7⁩ and I were joined by the great ⁦@robstaton⁩ to talk #Seahawks and a whole host of players he likes heading into the 2019 #NFLDraft . https://t.co/R3SU7nWjaD

— Neil Dutton (@ndutton13) April 11, 2019

I’ll start this piece by apologising to those who are tired of the Russell Wilson talk. I will say though — this is the defining story of Seattle’s off-season. It’s going to be the big old elephant in the room until it’s resolved one way or another. I’m ready for a conclusion as much as anyone but with five days until Wilson’s self-imposed contract deadline expires, how can we pretend like it’s not the big talking point? Everything — the draft plan, the direction of the franchise, the players we look at — is determined by what they do with Wilson.

I don’t think the Seahawks will trade Russell Wilson in 2019. Next year? It’s a lot more likely if a long-term extension isn’t agreed.

It’s quite simple why a deal is highly unlikely this year.

Firstly, the Seahawks will want to exhaust the possibility of keeping Wilson. Trading him now is just giving up. Seattle’s main motivation, surely, is to keep their franchise quarterback. They have to let the process play out before conceding defeat.

Secondly, they don’t have an alternative option on the roster. If they feel a divorce from Wilson is highly possible in the future — they should try and draft a quarterback they like first. It might not be possible. If it is — you make the call. You have to. That way you’re not totally unprepared for the future. And if you get a deal done with Wilson the worst case scenario is you’re simply left with a cheap, young backup who might have some trade value down the line.

So no. I’m not buying into the prospect of an earth-shaking trade. That doesn’t mean it isn’t being considered though. There’s a reason why it’s being talked about in NFL circles (and it clearly is). There’s a reason why the Seahawks have been looking at quarterbacks in recent years. There’s a reason why we’ve spent a lot longer discussing players like Kyler Murray and Will Grier during this draft cycle.

We’ve been anticipating this huge stand-off for many weeks now. Wilson’s camp have been extremely aggressive. The Seahawks have dabbled in a bit of ‘negotiation via media’ too. Both sides need to compromise and neither appears willing to currently. Wilson seems fully prepared to use the franchise tag if the Seahawks won’t pay him what he wants. If that happens the team has two choices. Pay him the money he’s asking for — even if it cripples the salary cap — or move him.

With Wilson setting his own deadline for April 15th, it accelerates the process somewhat. If he tells the Seahawks, bluntly, in five days time — ‘I am now playing on the tag until you pay me what I want’ — you might as well see what’s out there via trade. If you’re going to do that in a year anyway, why delay things? It doesn’t mean you deal him necessarily. It just means you see what’s on offer.

That’s my read on the situation. That’s why I think it’s being talked about. I don’t think Wilson will be dealt in 2019. I think potential suitors, such as the Giants or Dolphins, will want to get through this draft and build. In a year they will be able to make a call on whether they want to go all-in on a superstar quarterback.

New York will be a much better team in 12 months if they use #6, #17 and #37 this year to build their team up with young talent before inserting Wilson. The Dolphins need everything — so there’s little point paying Wilson $100m guaranteed now and then not having any draft picks to support him.

Next year both teams would be prime candidates for a trade. There would be others.

If someone did make a fantastic offer next week — say three first round picks and more — they’d have to consider it. Or they’d have to at least turn to Wilson and put to him whether he wants this to happen. Are you prepared to move on or will you compromise on a deal to stay?

I want to run through some thoughts on what I think the Seahawks will consider doing for the two scenarios — keeping Wilson and trading Wilson.

If Russell Wilson stays in 2019 (without a new contract)

1. They should aim to draft a quarterback as a priority. I know the team has needs at various positions. If they’re in that situation of needing to find ‘the next guy’ — you have to start drafting quarterbacks. You keep looking until you find the one. It all depends on whether the players you like (and they’ll find at least one they like within this class) are available.

2. I still think there’s a very good chance Will Grier will be a target. I won’t repeat everything again but he was by far the best downfield thrower in college football for the last two seasons. He’s a perfect fit for what they want to do (run the ball and take shots). He has mechanical flaws that impact his velocity and he takes too many sacks. Those are fixable issues. What he does well — the downfield accuracy, the ability to hang in the pocket and make big plays, to elevate a team like he did at WVU — is impressive.

3. You back yourself as a coaching/scouting staff to fill your other holes. They will trade down and accumulate more picks. If they can trade down and select a quarterback — it doesn’t mean they can’t find impact players in rounds 3-7. Let’s remember — Frank Clark (late R2), Tyler Lockett (R3), Chris Carson (R7), Tre Flowers (R5), Poona Ford (UDFA) and Jarran Reed (R2) weren’t high picks. And the best defense in team history was built on day three prospects by this GM and Head Coach.

If Russell Wilson is traded in 2019

1. Speak immediately to Indianapolis about Jacoby Brissett. Can you get him for a 2020 second rounder or less? That way you’re adding a player with starting experience, some talent and he’s familiar with Brian Schottenheimer. You would need a hedge for the draft and some competition at QB.

2. Assuming they get at least two extra picks in round one, they need to make up for the loss of a franchise quarterback by building up their defense. If they pick in the top-10 I think Rashan Gary would be their target. He perfectly fits what they look for in an athlete, versatility, scheme discipline and a former #1 recruit. Book-ending Gary with Frank Clark with Jarran Reed in the middle would be a tantalising prospect.

3. If they picked again in the teens they should double-down on defense. Do you add Byron Murphy to cover the nickel spot? Do you see what remains of the defensive tackle class? If you’re trading Wilson it’s to try and create another great defense. They would need to add young, legit first round talent.

4. They could use their native #21 overall to make sure they get the quarterback they like (eg Will Grier) or they could trade down as they currently plan to try and do. They’d need to come away with a QB at some point but the flexibility would be there to build up their defense. Any prospective trade would need to provide the Seahawks with a fuller draft board on days two and three. That would be an ideal opportunity to look at the tight ends and receivers.

Again — this is all just a lot of thinking out loud based around a major talking point involving the Seahawks. If you’re fed up with the Wilson stuff — I’m sorry. But everything around the team is connected to the decision they make with Wilson. If they are destined to part ways — it impacts the 2019 draft significantly.

New VMAC visit confirmed

Idaho linebacker Kaden Elliss will take an official-30 visit to Seattle next week. According to reports he ran a 6.49 three-cone. We now know twelve of Seattle’s confirmed visits:

Parris Campbell (WR)
L.J. Collier (DE)
Dre Greenlaw (LB)
Juan Thornhill (DB)
Darnell Savage (DB)
Darwin Thompson (RB)
Rashan Gary (DE)
Corrion Ballard (DB)
Jace Sternberger (TE)
Derrek Thomas (CB)
N’Keal Harry (WR)
Kaden Elliss (LB)

Podcast

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Trades before the draft?

Regular readers will know what I think the chances of that are.

It’s highly unlikely a team will offer the Seahawks an attractive deal for Frank Clark. He’ll cost at least $65m in guaranteed money. This is a sensational draft class for defensive linemen. You could be looking at a $50m difference in contract guarantees. If the Seahawks were going to deal Clark it likely would’ve been done by now. A much more likely scenario is both parties work towards the July 15th deadline and either come to an agreement or Clark will play on the franchise tag. You can’t force another team to make an attractive offer.

As for Russell Wilson, it’s even more unlikely. You don’t trade your franchise quarterback without a plausible alternative on the roster. They can’t guarantee a rookie quarterback they like will be available in the requisite range. If they try and trade for someone like Jacoby Brissett, the price will be extortionate because the Seahawks will be desperate.

If they believe this is a relationship that can’t last they at the very least need to try and draft a potential replacement first, then exhaust all avenues on a contract extension. Only then would it be right to move on.

That’s my take. Yet something isn’t right.

Adam Schefter isn’t a rumour-monger. Jack Del Rio has no reason to talk about Wilson’s future.

Both indulged in some serious speculating this week:

This is starting to remind me of the Michael Silver piece from just over a year ago. He reported that the LOB era was coming to an end after the week-15 debacle against the Rams. Cliff Avril and Kam Chancellor would retire. Richard Sherman and Michael Bennett were on the way out. Earl Thomas could be moved. It was all true — even though many fought it at the time.

Schefter isn’t reporting Wilson will go but just consider this. He made an appearance on a Mel Kiper and Todd McShay mock draft show. It was all about the draft. Yet Schefter had his own personal segment dedicated to the future of Russell Wilson. He brought up Wilson three separate times in the one-hour special. His body language throughout was interesting too.

Then there’s Del Rio, casually dropping out that Wilson could be moved. His reasoning for it happening was a little flawed and he was a little off on why Seattle has moved on from certain players recently. However — it’s clear there’s talk within the NFL that this could happen. Whether it does or not — it’s still a thing being discussed.

And while I still don’t think Wilson will be traded before the draft (or Clark) — it’d be totally wrong to just ignore this.

It would be a ground-breaking move. It’s hard to imagine they would do this and then simply hope for the best in the draft without a viable veteran option on the roster.

It’s also possible this is just Seattle’s counter in what is increasingly becoming a contract war waged through the media.

It’s set to be an interesting few days as that April 15th deadline approaches. Whether Wilson is traded or not before the draft — there’s a reason we’ve talked up Will Grier. He’s a superb downfield thrower who fits Seattle’s offense. If they can’t get a deal done with Wilson before the draft, don’t be surprised if they spend their first pick on Grier just in case they head towards a parting in 2020.

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