Today’s pre-draft interview is with Lance Zierlein. He does an outstanding job compiling scouting reports on hundreds of prospects for NFL.com (viewable here).
Regulars will know we’ve rated both players in this range for some months now. I want to speak specifically about Wilson. The Seahawks love huge, hulking offensive linemen with power, an edge and run blocking ability. They also like explosive linemen — and Wilson ranked second only to Tristan Wirfs in weighted TEF.
Don’t be surprised if the Seahawks decide to spend a high pick on Wilson, potentially at #27 (although trading down seems likely again). Minnesota at #22 or #25 is another option. Tennessee and Miami are possible options too.
I think it’d be a great pick. Wilson has major potential. The signing of Brandon Shell feels like a hedge more than a definitive move to replace Germain Ifedi. The Seahawks under Carroll and Schneider have regularly targeted linemen early.
“He is one tough, nasty guy… He’s the right tackle but I guess you could play him on the left and get by. He needs to learn to use his hands more. He’s strong and really nasty.”
“I think people are asleep on him… He could play on the left side. He’s enormous. He’s just not as clean of a package as Thomas. Thomas is a cleaner kid. But there’s film of Wilson where he looks every bit as good as Thomas.”
If they finally draw a conclusion to the Jadeveon Clowney saga and potentially find a way to add Everson Griffen too — they’d have optimal flexibility in this draft to tap into the strong areas — namely O-line and the skill positions.
And if you’re not sold on Wilson — go and watch Jake Fromm tape on YouTube. You’ll notice he has an obscene amount of time in the pocket. That’s on Wilson and Andrew Thomas. They were both superb in 2020.
If you want to add a physically imposing offensive tackle — he’s the next best on the board after Mekhi Becton.
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Before I get into the notes, check out my latest interview with a NFL draft prospect. This time it’s Michigan center and future first round pick Cesar Ruiz…
Are the Seahawks trying to use the draft to their advantage?
As we edge closer to the draft and with Seattle’s pass rush need still mostly unaddressed, I’ve been trying to figure out what the plan is.
Could they be trying to use the draft as leverage?
The event on April 23rd provides a deadline of sorts without having to spell it out.
For example — Jadeveon Clowney might think his options will be better in a few months. However, teams who end up spending picks on defensive linemen will be less inclined to make a move. There aren’t going to be many teams with the cap space and potential to contend willing to pay him what he’s currently being offered.
That doesn’t excuse Seattle’s inactivity. They called Clowney a ‘huge priority’ and consistently stated their desire to fix the pass rush. Just because he received a cold market doesn’t mean he has to accept whatever the Seahawks offer. He’s well within his rights to think he carried Seattle’s D-line in 2019 and that he’s a superior player to Dee Ford and Olivier Vernon — two players paid an annual salary at about the rate he’s now asking for.
The Seahawks are still risking losing him and weakening their team in 2020. For the sake of getting him at their value and padding the roster with journeymen — that warrants a critique.
Even so — it stands to reason that both parties will want/need this sorted by April 23rd. The Seahawks don’t need to set a deadline and neither does Clowney. One exists in the form of the draft. If nothing is resolved three or four days beforehand, they’ll possibly move on.
What about other options?
Everson Griffen’s quiet off-season seems to indicate he’s being particularly selective on his next move. Understandably so, given his recent mental health struggles. It feels a little bit like that option will always will be there for Seattle and it could be that Griffen signs anyway, whatever happens with Clowney, either before or after the draft.
I do wonder if Yannick Ngakoue remains a possibility too. A few teams might be playing the game a bit here. With both the player and team seemingly prepared to move on — now it’s about Jacksonville trying to get maximum value. And while they won’t give him away (just like Seattle refused to give away Earl Thomas) — there will also come a time when they understand they’ve got to get the best possible return this year. As we saw with Clowney in Houston, Ngakoue’s value will only decrease if this goes beyond the draft.
The Seahawks might still be willing to do a deal similar to the one Tony Pauline suggested. That would mean trading #27 to Jacksonville and then swapping #59 for #42. The Jaguars get another first round pick but they also move down a bit in round two. The Seahawks get Nagkoue and still pick twice in the first two rounds.
Any trade will almost certainly depend on what happens with Clowney. Plus you’d have to wonder why they’d be willing to pay Ngakoue a big contract but not Frank Clark or Clowney. The Seahawks aren’t going to go into next season with Benson Mayowa, Bruce Irvin, Rasheem Green, L.J. Collier and a rookie as their pass rush though. They just aren’t. And if the Clowney deal doesn’t work itself out — then Ngakoue probably remains an option.
A year ago the Frank Clark trade happened two days before the draft. That’s when things ramp up. It could be that Nagkoue is similarly dealt in that timeframe. The Jaguars will have exhausted all avenues and they’ll know what’s on offer. As long as someone is making a reasonable proposal (which is probably a late first or second round pick), then a trade remains very possible.
As much as we’ve critiqued the off-season so far (and rightly so because at the moment the biggest need remains unaddressed) — there’s still an opportunity to get this right. That’s necessary because while there are some pass rush options in this class (likely between picks #35-75) this is very much a draft where you want the freedom to target skill position players and offensive linemen.
Don’t forget to check out yesterday’s two round mock draft with detailed commentary on each pick…
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I’ve put together a two-round video mock draft. It’s not like the other mock drafts on the internet. Check it out. Kill an hour. Tomorrow I’ll post my latest interview, this time with Michigan center Cesar Ruiz.
Firstly though, I want to talk about the latest instalment in the tiring Jadeveon Clowney saga…
From @SportsCenter earlier: Cleveland Browns have shown interest in Jadeveon Clowney, and some people around league believe Cleveland got closer with Clowney than other suitors, though nothing ultimately happened from recent talks. Seattle's offer hasn't been what Clowney wants.
Maybe both parties are sat at home right now wondering how it’s come to this? Probably so. But the reality is if Clowney isn’t interested in Seattle’s current offer it’s about time they sort this out one way or another.
The Seahawks can’t go into the draft without clarity. How do you know what to do? Do you have to go heavy on pass rushers or not? Do you need time to negotiate fully with Everson Griffen and organise a physical?
Neither party is coming out of this well. Neither party has the upper hand either. Yet the main losers are the fans. They’re desperate for good news at a time when there’s precious little to enjoy in the world.
Both the Seahawks and Clowney are serving up a frustrating stalemate.
Some fans (not all) will question the plan, the direction and the execution of what was seen to be a vital off-season. Some will feel despondent. This is no longer a team in the middle of a reset. They had money and draft picks. It might be premature — but the Seahawks haven’t addressed their greatest need or retained the player they stated was a ‘huge priority’. They’ve done little to make up for it elsewhere. There’s been no reassuring words — just radio silence — despite other GM’s and coaches conducting conference calls with the media recently.
So the saga continues. It’s a bit more Indiana Jones 4 than Raiders of the Lost Ark, unfortunately.
Clowney has more or less exhausted all of his options by now. He knows what’s out there. And while teams might be willing to offer him a better deal weeks or months down the line when he might be able to do a medical — he also runs the risk of that not being the case. And if he’s not careful — he’ll be forced to take whatever offer remains rather than picking a destination.
The Seahawks aren’t exactly in a champion position either. The pass rush hasn’t been fixed. They run the risk of having to fight the draft as it’s a far greater class at the skill positions and on the offensive line. They went into the 2019 draft without an adequate pass rush and ended up with Cassius Marsh, L.J. Collier and Ziggy Ansah. The Houston trade for Clowney came out of the blue right before the season. You can’t bank on a gift like that emerging two years in a row.
If the Seahawks don’t get the pass rush sorted, we could be here again in 12 months time talking about the same things all over again. It shouldn’t be acceptable to anyone for this team to have a pass rush issue for three consecutive off-seasons. Especially if the season ends up being a rehash of what we’ve seen since 2015 — good but not good enough to seriously contend.
A resolution is required. It can’t be allowed to drag on much longer.
Here’s the mock draft…
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Today’s conversation is with LSU guard Damien Lewis.
We discussed his upbringing, his journey to LSU where he won a National Championship, teammates Lloyd Cushenberry, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Rashard Lawrence and how he’s preparing for the draft during the Covid-19 crisis. He also confirmed he had a formal meeting with the Seahawks at the combine.
You’re going to really like him. Have a listen below. He had a fantastic Senior Bowl and could easily be on Seattle’s radar.
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My understanding is, from Seattle's perspective, Jadeveon Clowney doesn't seem quite ready to make a decision but need to continue conducting business; thus deal to sign DE Benson Mayowa. I'm told move cd adjust budget for possible Clowney return. Team still thinks highly of him.
— ig: josinaanderson (@JosinaAnderson) April 2, 2020
This situation remains confounding.
The implication in this tweet is that the Seahawks are saying to Clowney — you’ve waited too long and we’ve had to sign another player. So now we don’t have as much money to offer you.
At the combine Pete Carroll told John Clayton that re-signing Clowney was a ‘huge priority’. Both he and John Schneider acknowledged the striking need to upgrade the pass rush.
Yet here we are. Nearly three weeks into free agency. They’ve still not sealed a deal with Clowney. And now they’re dropping notes to the media saying their budget to get a deal done is smaller, while they continue to add journeymen types to pad out their roster.
Here’s a reminder of the 2019 stats:
— The Seahawks finished with 28 sacks, second fewest in the league behind only Miami (23)
— Their sack percentage was 4.5% — third worst overall
— The Seahawks produced a sack or quarterback hit on just 14.4% of opponents’ pass plays — worst in the NFL
— They had only 126 pressures, sixth fewest in the league behind Detroit (125), Oakland (117), Houston (117), Atlanta (115) and Miami (96)
— Seattle’s pressure percentage was the fourth worst in the league (19.3%) behind Detroit (18.9%), Houston (18.1%) and Miami (16.7%)
— Seattle hit the quarterback 68 times — fourth fewest
— They had 52 TFL’s — fourth fewest
— They gave up 55 explosive running plays on defense, seventh most in the NFL
— Their explosive run play percentage (14%) was the third worst overall behind only Carolina (16%) and Cleveland (15%)
— They gave up 4.9 YPC — fourth most overall
— They had 131 during the regular season — fourth most.
Players like Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin are decent depth signings if they compliment starting talent. They themselves are not starters. They themselves are not going to fix any of Seattle’s issues above.
This off-season required an injection of talent into the defense. Offensively, they were a top-five unit per DVOA. The draft was loaded with receivers and offensive linemen. They could’ve added even more support for Russell Wilson in three weeks time.
It’s not a strong draft for twitchy pass rushers. And yet the Seahawks now face the prospect of having to potentially fight the board to fix their greatest weakness.
Despite calls from the quarterback to add ‘superstars’ — they haven’t signed a premier pass rusher. They’ve not got a deal done with Clowney. They’re continuing to try and win a negotiation tussle with their one star player on the D-line. If he departs elsewhere, they’ll have weakened their greatest need, not strengthened it.
Bringing in Everson Griffen as a replacement isn’t enough. You can’t have two 33-year-old book end pass rushers complimented by 29-year-old Benson Mayowa, while hoping any rookie additions have more impact than Rasheem Green, L.J. Collier and Frank Clark had early in their careers.
Worst of all, at this rate we’ll be talking about the same issues in 12 months time. They’ll be in the exact same situation.
Sometimes you have to pay the going rate. The Seahawks shirked at the idea of paying to keep Frank Clark and moved their one reliable pass rusher for a haul from Kansas City. A year later they’re now shirking the opportunity to pay Clowney.
Eventually, you have to keep your D-line talent. Even if it means spending a bit more money.
It’s especially peculiar seeing as Seattle’s scheme is predicated on being able to rush with four. They’re not an aggressive, blitzing team like Tampa Bay or Baltimore. You’d think, if anything, they’d place an extremely high priority on the position financially.
It doesn’t matter if Clowney’s market was cold elsewhere. Is it worth risking wasting a season for the sake of sticking to your guns? If the Seahawks never return to true contention, in five years will we bemoan their willingness to pay for talent? Or will we complain about their lack of activity to fix a glaring need?
Is this saga with Clowney really worth it? All for the sake of Luke Willson, Jacob Hollister, Chance Warmack, B.J. Finney, Cedric Ogbuehi, Phillip Dorsett, Brandon Shell and keeping Justin Britt and K.J. Wright’s full salaries on the books?
Whether it was signing Clowney or moving on to other options — Dante Fowler, Yannick Ngakoue, Robert Quinn, Matt Judon or anyone else — the need had to be addressed.
When things start being played out through the media, it’s often a sign that things are moving. We saw that with Wilson a year ago.
Time is running out though — and so is the cap space.
L.J. Collier had a healthy pass rush win percentage of 18%. That was in the same range as Brian Burns (18.5%) and Chase Winovich (18%). They eventually brought in Jachai Polite for an extended trial on the practise squad. His win percentage was 20.4%.
It’s not the be-all and end-all of course. They chose not to draft Jaylon Ferguson despite his win percentage (26.6%) ranking second only to the #7 overall pick Josh Allen (30.3%).
Even so — I feel like it was a topic worth returning to now that we’re on the road to the draft.
I didn’t really anticipate having to look at this class as much as we are doing. Instead of Reagor, Hamler, Aiyuk, Wilson, Ruiz and others we’re looking a lot closer at a weaker than usual D-line group.
It’s such a priority now that they probably can’t wait until pick #59 to address this. Trading down, acquiring a pick to fill the gap between #64 and #101 and taking the guy you want in the 30’s feels realistic. I’ll represent this approach in a two-round video mock draft tomorrow.
So who could be ‘their’ guy? That’s where it gets tricky. There are so many players who don’t fit what they ideally look for — whether it’s shorter arms, slower speed or weaker agility. There are also several players who didn’t work out fully or at all at the combine.
That’s why I highlighted Jabari Zuniga a few days ago. He has an appealing physical profile, he’s played inside/out, his pass rush win percentage is a healthy 20% and he flashes on tape (even if he’s inconsistent). His arms are 32 7/8 inches long. I’m going to guess, this year, they might be able to look beyond that 1/8 of an inch.
His pressure percentage is only 15.8% though and that speaks to the inconsistencies in his game.
There are two other players I want to focus on today.
Joshua Uche is more of a SAM linebacker who can move around and rush from different areas. He does have some impressive burst and bend off the edge though (although he had a rough outing against Tristan Wirfs and Iowa).
Uche’s pressure percentage was 23.3% in 2019. Quite frankly that’s fantastic. He also showed up at the Senior Bowl including a dominant performance in the game:
Considering he has +33 inch arms and is reasonably sized at 245lbs — there’s every chance the Seahawks seriously consider taking him after a trade down from #27 with their first pick. The production and the length is there. We don’t have testing numbers but we see the burst on film. He won’t be a full time EDGE but they need to add players who have shown they can create pressure and he has done that.
They also like Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan guys and I think they’ll like his character too:
On top of his excellent pressure percentage rate, Uche was second only to Chase Young in terms of pass rush win percentage. Here’s the top three:
I suspect the Seahawks are well aware of these numbers. They’ve no shot at Young but they have every chance of getting the next two on the list. Maybe even both?
Okwara, like Uche, is long and lean with +33 inch arms and has the burst, bend, get-off and dynamism they badly lacked last season. His pressure percentage for 2018 and 2019 combined was 19.1%.
Again — he didn’t test. Yet the tape shows he has the necessary quickness. It’s going to be give and take with all of these guys. You’re going to have to take a chance on health, body type or physical profile. Ideally there’d be a clearly obvious target for #27 that you could take, feel great about and all would be good in the world. That’s not the case this year. There’s no T.J. Watt sat at the end of round one like 2017.
So it could be Uche or Okwara after a trade down. Then it could be another pass rusher at #59 or #64. That could be Zuniga if he lasts or it could be Curtis Weaver (who I wrote about here). He was fourth on the list above for pass rush win percentage at 22.9%. He could be in the conversation too — especially given he actually did the short shuttle and tested very well (although he has short arms and a unique frame for the position).
I could keep going. Terrell Lewis had a great pressure percentage rate of 19.8% but Alabama uses a ton of stunts, he has injury flags and I wrote about some of his issues on tape here. Zach Baun combines a 20.1% win percentage with a 16.5% pressure percentage and he ran a 1.54 10-yard split. Yet he’s 238lbs, has short arms and will have to play linebacker. Bradlee Anae had a 20.2% win percentage and plays with fire and brimstone. Yet he’s a modest athlete and he doesn’t possess a high ceiling.
Anae and Baun are both terrific with their hands. That’s a big deal. So again, you’re balancing out certain physical ideals, production, scheme fit and technique.
Alternatively — a lot of people think K’Lavon Chaisson will be a high pick. I don’t think he’s going to go anywhere near as early as some are projecting. One of the reasons why is his pass rush win percentage. It was 13.1% in 2019. That’s the lowest mark by any of the draft eligible pass rushers in this class.
If he lasts to #27 and they pass on him many will wonder why but that could be a reason. They could also buy into his potential and high character. LSU is a talent pool worth tapping into this year.
They could also target the defensive tackles. Jordan Elliott had a very healthy 18.7% pass rush win percentage but he lacks ideal length. Javon Kinlaw ranked second among defensive tackles at 18.1% but he’ll be a high pick. Third on the list was Justin Madubuike with 14.9%. He’s a name to keep an eye on as an ideal one-gapper with some athleticism.
Seattle using their first pick on a long term option at right tackle or one of the great receivers in this class just felt right a month ago. Now — they might have to go D-line early and often. They might be able to squeeze an offensive lineman in at #59 or #64 (by now you know I think Robert Hunt will be a target and don’t count out one of the center’s if they cut Justin Britt) but the other two picks could be about trying to find a rotation of players who can create pressure.
That’s why I think they’re going to focus on these pass rush and pressure rates. Who are the guys who were doing it in college? Bring them in and let them get after it.
They just haven’t done enough in free agency so far to warrant any other plan. And I’m not sure much changes even if they sign Clowney. They lack difference markers. They need much more.
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Yesterday I published an interview with Senior Bowl Executive Director Jim Nagy. Don’t forget to check it out. Today, here’s a conversation with Louisiana-Lafayette offensive lineman Robert Hunt.
We talked about how he’s handling the draft process during the Covid-19 crisis. He confirmed he had a formal meeting with the Seahawks at the combine. He discussed what it’s like to do a FaceTime ‘visit’ with teams. Plus he described the impact he intends to have in the league.
You’re going to love this guy. Have a listen below. He could very well be a key target for the Seahawks in the 2020 draft.
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