1. DaVon Hamilton (DT, Ohio State) should go earlier than a lot of people think. When I spoke to Cesar Ruiz recently he name-checked Hamilton and Raekwon Davis as his two toughest opponents in college. On tape he does what you’d expect a 6-4, 320lbs defender to do — anchor and control. Yet he’s surprisingly effective shooting gaps and making plays in the backfield. I don’t think people realise he had six sacks and 10.5 TFL’s in 2019. His pass rush win percentage (12.6%) is the same as Ross Blacklock despite being 30lbs heavier. At the Senior Bowl his win percentage in 1v1’s was 73% — second among all defensive lineman behind only Zach Baun. If you want a combination of dynamism and stoutness in the interior, Hamilton’s your man. The Seahawks might have to move up a few spots from #59 if they want to land him.
2. There’s something to remember with defensive linemen — the Seahawks place a lot of value on gap discipline. It’s one of the reasons why they’ve never drafted a defensive lineman with sub-33 inch arms. It’s why they’ll look beyond Poona Ford’s height and value his length — because he can keep his frame clean and control his gap. A lot of the players Seattle get linked with in the media are shorter armed guys like Blacklock and Neville Gallimore. They’re more likely to focus on the players with length (+33 inch arms) such as Hamilton, Raekwon Davis, Justin Madubuike and Leki Fotu. It seems inevitable they will draft a defensive tackle next week.
3. This is a very lopsided draft in the range where Seattle will make their first pick. I can count 12 realistic offensive targets compared to just three on defense. It would make a lot of sense for the Seahawks to sign a veteran defensive end before the draft, allow themselves to select an offensive tackle or skill player with their first selection (probably after trading down) and then focus on defense at #59 and #64.
4. It might not be the worst idea to draft someone like DaVon Hamilton or Leki Fotu to replace Al Woods and then consider, if possible, also selecting Raekwon Davis. The Seahawks have stacked their O-line depth and it’s time to do the same on the other side of the ball. Davis played end and tackle at Alabama and has a similar physical profile to Calais Campbell. A front four of Davis, Reed, Hamilton and a veteran (for example, some guy called Jadeveon Clowney) would be tough on early downs. Then Davis could kick inside, as could Clowney, to allow Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin to pin their ears back. I’m not sure they’d want to load up like this, or whether the opportunity to draft both Hamilton and Davis would be available, yet having done so much to add bodies to the O-line it’d be pleasing to see the D-line receive some of the same treatment. Make Rasheem Green and L.J. Collier earn their snaps. Have depth, talent, toughness and a strong rotation. It’s time to fix this problem.
5. It’ll be interesting to see where Tennessee’s Darrell Taylor goes. If you take his top ten plays from 2019 and cut them into a highlights video you’d think you were watching a top-10 talent. The full game tape is a very different experience. He’s clearly athletic and ideally sized for a LEO rusher. There’s an injury history though and he was flagged at the Senior Bowl then didn’t work out at the combine. He was also suspended at Tennessee for kicking a team mate in the face. Taylor clearly has raw talent but how comfortable are teams drafting a player like this who they haven’t visited with or had their doctors look at? He’s just someone to keep in mind if the Seahawks focus on the ‘bigs’ and skill players early and want to take a shot on a speed rusher after their initial selections.
6. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jonathan Taylor are two of the best 25 players in this draft. Both are immensely talented and could easily go in the first round. If they last beyond that, you’re getting a steal. If either is available to the Seahawks after the inevitable trade down from #27, they’ll have a big call to make on whether to pull the trigger or wait on a player like Cam Akers (who might go in the late second or early third round) or Zack Moss (likely day three). I wrote about Edwards-Helaire a couple of months ago and Taylor has already expressed his interest in playing for the Seahawks. Taking either player early will be unpopular with some fans but the Seahawks offense suffered when their running back depth was decimated at the end of last season. On top of that — Chris Carson’s contract situation and health, plus Rashaad Penny’s knee injury — means they might need more than short-term depth. Acquiring a highly talented runner for this offense on the cheap for four or five years (the remainder of Russell Wilson’s peak) isn’t the worst idea in the world. It’d also be a case of talent meeting opportunity. Those situations have delivered recently (Frank Clark, D.K. Metcalf, Jarran Reed).
7. The Seahawks have always tapped into the strength of a class and that won’t be any different this year at receiver. It’s just a matter of when and who? Do they use the depth to their advantage by waiting until rounds 3/4 (and we know they like a fourth round receiver)? Or do they go and get one of the big names early, just as they did in the strong receiver class of 2014? Whoever they select is likely going to need to have some experience or ability as a kick returner.
8. I re-watched K’Lavon Chaisson this week. I still don’t see the special talent many believe him to be. He has short arms, the worst pass rush win percentage in the draft and an injury history. He opted not to work out at the combine despite being healthy. He has occasional wins but that’s it. He’s clearly a charismatic individual, well respected and they don’t just give out the #18 jersey at LSU. Yet after months of seeming like a top-20 lock, you’re starting to see projections where he lasts to #27. I’m not sure the Seahawks would pick him. They might. They could be one of the teams who love the potential and the character and decide they want to try and develop him into something he wasn’t at LSU. Just don’t be surprised if they don’t take him — because there’ll probably be a riot on Seahawks twitter if he’s there and they pass, even though it’s more understandable than some realise.
If you missed yesterday’s interview with Tony Pauline check it out here…
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Tony Pauline is the #1 draft insider in the business. For the last five years I’ve had an opportunity to speak to Tony about the Seahawks and the draft and it’s always a must listen.
In the interview he reveals how many first round grades are on Seattle’s board, provides the latest on Jadeveon Clowney and the search for pass rush and discusses their likely plan during the draft.
Meanwhile, yesterday I made reference to the Senior Bowl pass rush win percentages and how they might influence Seattle. Here are the top numbers in case you missed them:
Zack Baun — 75%
DaVon Hamilton — 73%
Jonathan Greenard — 71%
Anfernee Jennings — 71%
Josh Uche — 67%
Bradlee Anae — 67%
Cam Brown — 67%
Marlon Davidson — 63%
McTelvin Agim — 58%
Terrell Lewis — 57%
Javon Kinlaw — 57%
I was then asked in the comments section about last years percentages. For example, how did Seattle’s two defensive line picks (L.J. Collier & Demarcus Christmas) perform?
Both players were listed in the top-10 with Collier’s score at an outstanding 90%.
It perhaps sheds further light on why they were so impressed with Collier in Mobile. It also points to the possibility of Seattle showing interest in someone like DaVon Hamilton who led the defensive tackles this year.
Something to keep in mind.
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My latest interview in our lockdown series is with PFF draft analyst Mike Renner. I would recommend checking out his coverage, including his excellent draft guide, by clicking here. A big thank you to Mike for his time.
I wanted to draw attention to some information provided within the PFF draft guide, which you can read below the interview…
Included within Renner’s draft guide are the win percentages for each player in the O-line vs D-line 1v1 drills at the Senior Bowl. It’s important to note who performed well here, given the likelihood of Seattle investing in both lines.
For a number of years the Seahawks have placed a high value on excelling at the Senior Bowl. L.J. Collier had an outstanding week in Mobile last year. Marquise Blair also attended. In 2018, Rashaad Penny performed well in the Senior Bowl game.
Here’s the list of participants they’ve drafted in the first three rounds since 2010:
First round
James Carpenter
L.J. Collier
Rashaad Penny
Second round
Bobby Wagner
Jarran Reed
Ethan Pocic
Marquise Blair
Third round
Russell Wilson
Jordan Hill
Tyler Lockett
It’s a fairly significant list. None of the group had any kind of character flags either. The Senior Bowl is an opportunity to get to know these players, see them compete and that’s undoubtedly appealing to a culture-strong team like Seattle.
So who performed well in the 1v1’s? Who might’ve impressed them enough to join the list above?
Zack Baun had the highest win percentage of the pass rushers (75%). I went back and watched the North practises this week and that number is legit. Baun was superb and clearly the most natural attacking the edge. You could see his 1.54 10-yard split on show. The problem for Seattle is he’s 238lbs and he’s fairly maxed out. Whereas someone like Josh Uche (67% win rate in Mobile) can carry 250lbs — Baun can’t. So it’s unclear if he’ll be able to rush from the line or whether he’s strictly suited to playing outside linebacker. Both players delivered at the Senior Bowl though — on top of pass rush win percentages during the season of 27% (Uche) and 20.1% (Baun).
The second best performer in Mobile was DaVon Hamilton (73%). Again, this showed up re-watching the tape. He won mostly with power and heavy hands but he’s also very capable of shooting gaps. For all the talk of Ross Blacklock being a good pass rusher — Hamilton had the same pass rush win percentage score in 2019 (12.6%). Hamilton will go earlier than many realise.
Here’s a list of the top performers:
Zack Baun — 75%
DaVon Hamilton — 73%
Jonathan Greenard — 71%
Anfernee Jennings — 71%
Josh Uche — 67%
Bradlee Anae — 67%
Cam Brown — 67%
Marlon Davidson — 63%
McTelvin Agim — 58%
Terrell Lewis — 57%
Javon Kinlaw — 57%
Both Uche and Anae also tore up the game. We know the Seahawks like to draft from Michigan and Utah too. The big question mark with Anae is the physical profile. Can he continue to be a productive sack-artist at the next level with his moderate level of athleticism?
There were no real shocks on the O-line. Lloyd Cushenberry and Damien Lewis excelled from day one onwards so it’s no surprise they were near the top. Tyre Phillips had a much better week than he was given credit for and Keith Ismael was very consistent.
Lloyd Cushenberry — 75%
Keith Ismael — 75%
Tyre Phillips — 73%
Damien Lewis — 69%
Calvin Throckmorton — 67%
Ben Bredeson — 62%
Ben Bartch — 58%
Josh Jones — 54%
Matt Peart — 54%
The pass rush stats are probably more relevant for the Seahawks and it validates projecting Uche and Hamilton for Seattle — as I did in my recent two round video mock draft:
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Josh Uche’s pass rush win percentage is second only to Chase Young
Free agency to fill needs, then draft for talent. You hear that a lot.
The reality is, most teams have a key need to fill going into the draft.
Even the more active teams in free agency have needs. The Eagles badly need a wide receiver. The Bengals need their quarterback, O-line reinforcements and a linebacker. The Cardinals need more help on their O-line. The Dolphins have holes everywhere.
Ideally you address as many areas as possible and match up your remaining needs with the strength of the draft. This is why the Eagles are in a strong position. They’ve set themselves up to take a receiver with their first pick, tapping into the strength of the class. They filled other needs in the veteran market.
The problem for the Seahawks this year is they have a long-ish list of needs.
While they’ve padded their O-line depth and added a much needed cornerback, they’ve struggled to add a serious influx of talent to the defense. The pass rush remains pitifully weak. They need a defensive tackle. They don’t have any long term answers on the O-line despite all of their new additions. Russell Wilson deserves more talent at the skill positions too.
They do have an extra second round pick this year to try and fill some of these needs. Yet picking in large numbers hasn’t necessarily worked out for the Seahawks in recent drafts.
This is also the first draft in recent memory where the Seahawks haven’t matched up their biggest need (D-line) with the strength of a class.
They might not be able to let the draft come to them. That’s arguably where they’ve done their best work in recent years. Capitalising on elite athletes Frank Clark and D.K. Metcalf falling to the late second round. Correctly identifying two terrific players in Jarran Reed and Tyler Lockett who were worth trading up for. None of these players, at the time, filled ‘glaring’ needs.
That mix of opportunity and proactiveness has worked well.
Hopefully they will get a chance to do that again in 11 days time. They do have some serious holes to fill though.
They need to address the following positions as a priority:
Pass rusher Defensive tackle
This will be the case whether they re-sign Jadeveon Clowney or not. The difference between the 2019 pass rush being terrible and the 2020 pass rush being stronger will not be Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin replacing Ziggy Ansah and Quinton Jefferson. They’ve not replaced Al Woods at defensive tackle and are currently only holding Jarran Reed, Poona Ford, Demarcus Christmas and Brian Mone on the roster.
They have two secondary needs:
Offensive tackle Running back
Brandon Shell’s contract screams draft hedge. Duane Brown turns 35 this year. It’s not a bad class to try and add someone who can potentially compete with Shell to start in 2020 and eventually replace Brown. Chris Carson’s injury history and contract situation warrants monitoring — as does Rashaad Penny’s knee injury. Plus let’s not forget how Seattle requires depth at the position to function. Pete Carroll has always sought a stable of backs.
There are two other potential needs to be addressed:
Wide receiver Linebacker
It’s a quality receiver class and it’d be pretty remarkable not to take one in the first four rounds. The addition of Phillip Dorsett takes the pressure off a bit to take one early but you also don’t want to miss out. The Seahawks need speed and quality at linebacker. Their two starters are older and expensive. Cody Barton didn’t play well as a rookie and Ben Burr-Kirven appears to have been drafted for special teams.
It’s unlikely the Seahawks are going to be able to draft all six positions in a wholly satisfactory way. Some of these areas will need to be addressed after the draft — such as a year ago when they traded for Jacob Hollister after not drafting a tight end and signed Ziggy Ansah to try and help the pass rush.
A few people have requested I put together a horizontal draft board. This is how teams actually draft. A vertical board is essentially just a long list of players in order. A horizontal board does a better job breaking down players by position and grade.
I’ve given it a go but I’m not completely satisfied with the effort. For starters — I have barely any information on players that will be targeted on day three. There are no pro-day numbers. Usually by now we have a list of players who’ve visited the VMAC too. Now teams can talk to any player on FaceTime. There are no ‘official 30’ visits. It’s a crude attempt at a horizontal board on my behalf.
So while I can project the first few rounds, the later rounds are an abomination. And this will be the case for any person who writes about the draft and tries to do this. We have even less information than we usually have. If you showed my board to someone who works for a team, they would probably laugh. But I won’t be alone.
Here’s my initial attempt (click to enlarge):
The players in red have either current injuries that they’re still recovering from, missed significant time in college with injury or have been reported to have issues teams cannot reconcile before the draft.
As you can see, I have 19 first round prospects. That feels about right for this class. I’ve been really strict with the receivers. I suspect a lot of teams won’t have Jonathan Taylor and Clyde Edwards-Helaire in round one either. But a fair projection of 15-20 genuine first round grades seems about right.
My takeaways from putting this together would be the following:
— The Seahawks could consider spending their first pick on a running back, receiver or offensive tackle. It’ll be their best chance to get a top talent from this draft. Whether they can justify it though with a glaring D-line need remains to be seen. They’ve also invested a lot of cap space in the O-line in free agency, the positional value at running back is always challenged and they do have young talent at receiver already.
— The sweet-spot for defensive linemen in this draft appears to be round two. That likely means either trading back from #27 into the 30’s or using your picks at #59 or #64 to solve those needs. They could also trade up from #59 or #64 to target a specific player — especially with an extra fourth rounder in their back-pocket.
— The board remains really thick at receiver in rounds 5-7. Recently Eric DeCosta suggested you could find a contributor in the fifth round. I’m not saying it’s definitely going to happen or should happen — but there’s at least an opportunity here for the Seahawks to wait for their favourite range (fourth round) to draft a receiver and focus on other needs. Of course, you can also make a great argument for targeting the likes of Jalen Reagor, K.J. Hamler, Brandon Aiyuk or Denzel Mims with the top pick.
— They need to add a defensive tackle badly. They could do that after the draft. Some options remain available — such as Damon Harrison, Marcell Dareus, Brandon Mebane or Caraun Reid (who they took a look at a year ago). It’s hardly a glorious list though. Players near the end of their careers, players who have flirted with retirement and journeymen. However — that’s often the market they’ve shopped in at defensive tackle. Not signing anyone prior to the draft, however, suggests they at least have some younger players in mind first and foremost. It’s one of the few positions they haven’t hedged in the build up to the draft.
— What are the DT options? As you can see on my board — there aren’t many. If they’re looking for an Al Woods replacement in the first three rounds — I’ve only got DaVon Hamilton and Leki Fotu in an acquirable range. Hamilton is a fringe second round talent who might need to be taken at #59 or #64 — or after a small trade down. Fotu is more of a third or fourth round type. At three technique the options are limited to Raekwon Davis, Justin Madubuike, Marlon Davidson and Rashard Lawrence. I listed Ross Blacklock and Jordan Elliott but they both have sub-33 inch arms (and the Seahawks have never drafted a defensive tackle with sub-33 inch arms) and are unlikely targets (the same goes for Neville Gallimore). So what do you do? If you want to address this position, it probably needs to be with one of your high picks. Otherwise you’re dipping into that veteran market.
— One of the big unknowns is also what kind of range you’ll need to take someone like Raekwon Davis or Marlon Davidson. Davis has early round talent as a defensive anchor with power and versatility plus untapped pass rush potential. Yet there are reports that some teams are worried about his maturity and lack of production. Davidson was a top-level recruit with massive physical potential and he has unnatural quality as an edge rusher despite his three-technique frame. Yet Auburn also took him out on running downs a lot — and that’s a concern for a player who should be an every-down contributor at that size.
— It’s a similar story with pass rushers. They need to take one. They need to come out of this draft with someone who can get after the QB. Yet the options are somewhat restricted and the value is best in round two. If you don’t take one with your first three picks — you might miss out. The board is not thick here. If you want the speed and quickness they lack you’re really looking at Josh Uche, Julian Okwara or K’Lavon Chaisson. If you want strength and power it’s Terrell Lewis. If you want someone really athletic and versatile it’s Jabari Zuniga. Yetur Gross-Matos is about potential really but he leaves you wanting more on tape. Curtis Weaver had an outstanding short shuttle and his pass rush win percentage is exceptional but it’s difficult to project his body type (and lack of length) to the next level.
— The linebacker position will be really thick and attractive from #27 going into round two but then it drops off a cliff. Unless Willie Gay Jr hasn’t convinced teams about his character and he lasts. It could be that this is a position they avoid because the need vs the availability range doesn’t match up. They do need youth, speed, talent and ferocity at this position though.
You always have to make compromises. I sense that will be an even bigger discussion point for the Seahawks this year.
It comes down to a few questions:
— What exactly is the plan with Chris Carson? Recent history says don’t pay big money to running backs, especially ones with an injury history. Yet they seem to love what he brings to the team. So how much do you want to target a Jonathan Taylor type early, if he’s available, knowing he’s everything you want at the position and has star potential? Yet if you do that — you’re avoiding the top offensive tackles and you’re putting a lot of pressure on #59 and #64 to find defensive solutions. How big is the drop to Cam Akers in the late second or early third? And how big is the drop to Zack Moss, James Robinson and A.J. Dillon? Or are you putting your trust in Carson/Penny, knowing you have the likes of Isaiah Crowell or Marshawn Lynch to potentially add down the line?
— Do you have to go defensive line first up and address that need? You might run the risk of reaching. Or if you trade down into a more comfortable range you might pass on better players just to fill a need. It’s the one position capable of pulling the Seahawks down so you need to get this right. If you wait too long — you could end up in the same position as a year ago, missing out on the best options and having to settle.
— How motivated are you to draft an offensive tackle first up that might be a redshirt? For example — if you take Austin Jackson or Ezra Cleveland, are you comfortable investing a first round pick in a player to simply be the future? It sounds great on paper. Securing an important position for the long term. Yet the Seahawks are a team trying to win now. Spending your first pick on a player who doesn’t play in year one can be problematic. With early picks you typically want a return.
— How much belief do they have in Brandon Shell? Or is he simply a physical fit that they took a low cost gamble on? They could target someone like Isaiah Wilson to be the long term future at right tackle. Yet he’s a pure right-sided blocker. And if training camp is delayed, shortened or there’s less time for a rookie to learn the ropes — do you again run the risk of spending a high pick on a redshirt if Shell is in pole position to start? It might be better finding out where Robert Hunt is slated to go and focusing on a player like that who also has great positional versatility.
— There’s also been a different O-line approach recently. They’ve signed a lot of veterans, not just this year but for the last three off-seasons now. They seem to prefer experience on the offensive line and then drafting to develop in the mid-to-late rounds. Will that continue to be the case in this draft? It’s not a thick board at offensive tackle after round one but it’s very thick in the interior.
Tony Pauline recently reported the Seahawks would focus on the lines early and often. I suspect that will end up proving to be the case. Whether it’s an offensive tackle first and then a focus on the defense line — or an acknowledgement that they need to sort the pass rush out first before turning to other needs.
In my latest video mock draft (see below) I had the Seahawks taking Josh Uche (pass rusher), Robert Hunt (OL) and DaVon Hamilton (DL) with their first three picks. It’s equally possible they go OL-PR-DL first up. And if they’re willing to draft to develop for the O-line later on, we could see a focus on DL and one or both of the skill positions (RB/WR).
The key is going to be solving as many of these needs as possible, rather than necessarily selecting the best players. That’s where the current Seahawks are.
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Once again I’ve put together a mock draft using the Pro Football Network simulator. It’s a full two-round projection including trades (although the simulator wasn’t playing ball with many of the trades I wanted to make).
Let me know what you think in the comments section. And don’t forget to check out all of the interviews on the YouTube channel if you missed them last week. In the next couple of days I’ll be adding an interview with PFF’s Mike Renner and I’ll be speaking to Tony Pauline this week too.
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The latest interview in our ‘lockdown’ series is with the former NFL GM Michael Lombardi. We discussed the impact of coronavirus on the NFL draft, the Jadeveon Clowney stalemate, how teams have become familiar with Seattle’s scheme and how the Seahawks can take the next step to return to the Super Bowl.
It was a great opportunity to speak to a vastly experienced NFL decision maker and one of the most interesting media personalities. Don’t forget to check out Michael’s work — including the GM shuffle podcast and his articles for the Athletic.
This weekend I will publish the next interview (with PFF’s Mike Renner). Plus I’ll have some thoughts on why the Seahawks should aim for upside in the draft. If you missed our new podcast this week, click here.
Brandan I spent 90 minutes discussing Seattle’s off-season so far and looked ahead to the NFL draft in two weeks. There’s a lot of detail, some big views and it’s worth checking out below.
The latest interview in our ‘lockdown’ series is with the former Seahawks senior personnel executive and Redskins/49ers GM Scot McCloughan.
As one of the most respected scouts in the NFL, it was a privilege to spend time speaking with Scot. He shares some insider knowledge on life in a NFL draft room, discusses his time with the Seahawks and explains why he thinks it would’ve been best to delay the draft due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Listen to the interview below and if you missed any of the others in the series, check out my YouTube channel for conversations with Jim Nagy and Lance Zierlein — plus players Cesar Ruiz, Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt. I’ve got two more interviews on the way this week with Michael Lombardi and Mike Renner so stay tuned.
I’ve been thinking about how to respond to yesterday’s comment from Mike Garofolo that Seattle’s chances of re-signing Jadeveon Clowney were ‘slim to none’. It could, of course, be the latest instalment in an attempt to negotiate through the media. That was prevalent during the Russell Wilson saga last year.
But then I decided it doesn’t really matter whether it’s a legit comment or not. Either way, as of today, the Seahawks have not addressed their biggest need.
Let’s review Seattle’s last 12 months when it comes to the pass rush.
They ended the 2018 season with a striking need on the defensive line. That wasn’t a big concern at the time because a great draft for defensive linemen was on the horizon. Frank Clark and Jarran Reed had both enjoyed successful seasons but they needed more. They needed to try and get a rotation of rushers and improve their defensive tackle depth.
The problem was — they had some big decisions to make. Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner needed to be paid. Clark was a free agent and received the franchise tag. The Seahawks did well to secure Wilson and Wagner’s futures. However, they were unwilling to pay Clark the $21m a year DeMarcus Lawrence had just been given by the Dallas Cowboys.
At the time a trade was understandable. Financially it would’ve been a huge commitment to Clark. As well as he played in Seattle — was he one of the very best players in the league? It was a players market they were bidding in. With only four picks in the 2019 draft they made the trade with Kansas City — acquiring a nice return of a first round pick and a future second round pick.
Again — at the point of the trade it didn’t feel remotely like a crisis. They had an opportunity to spend two high picks on the defensive line in a great D-line draft if they wished. It was clear though that they needed to do something. In 2018 Clark was as isolated as Chris Clemons was in 2011. Now they’d lost Clark — and with him any kind of serious edge threat.
There’s been plenty of speculation about what happened during the draft that left Pete Carroll and John Schneider looking so despondent in their press conference after round one. There was a total lack of energy in the room. Both individuals sounded dejected.
Had they hoped (as many expected) that Rashan Gary would last to #21? Or Brian Burns? Was Johnathan Abram the backup plan? Did they miss out on Gary and Burns then err by trading out of range for Abram?
Who knows. I’m speculating. It isn’t healthy. We can all second guess things with hindsight. I was a big fan of L.J. Collier’s TCU tape and it’s perfectly plausible they were always comfortable taking him at #29. Or did they feel they’d missed the boat on the first rush of top linemen and now needed to take the best remaining player on their board to make sure they didn’t miss out completely? Especially with an even greater need at defensive end following the Clark trade?
Did they, in other words, ‘reach’?
They didn’t draft another defensive end and instead signed Ziggy Ansah as soon as it wouldn’t cost them a comp pick. Ansah had received no interest in free agency due to a shoulder injury and persistent questions about his desire to carry on playing.
It was obvious during pre-season that Seattle’s pass rush was inadequate. Collier hurt his ankle and wasn’t available. Ansah was re-habbing. Jacob Martin, Cassius Marsh and Barkevious Mingo were rotating in. The results were what you’d expect.
The Houston Texans gifted Seattle a solution in the form of a barely believable Jadeveon Clowney trade. Even with his addition, the pass rush still wasn’t good enough. Clowney ran a one-man show some weeks. Ansah’s goose was cooked. Martin and Mingo left for Houston as part of the trade. Marsh was cut. Collier couldn’t force his way into the rotation and was usually inactive. Quinton Jefferson did his best but was never a true X-factor. Rasheem Green made some progress but it was limited and from a position of Collier-level inactivity the previous year.
So the Seahawks entered the current off-season in virtually the same position as the last. They had one capable pass rusher who was out of contract. They needed to add to what they had. Only this time, they weren’t approaching a great D-line draft.
History has otherwise pretty much repeated.
As with Clark, they don’t want to pay Clowney the going rate for a top defensive end. Despite having cap space they’ve used most of it on depth signings — adding a mix of journeymen and former first-round busts. They’ve lost Quinton Jefferson but retained Jarran Reed. They’ve signed Bruce Irvin and Benson Mayowa.
The big difference is — unlike with Clark they’re not going to get any picks for Clowney. In fact if he leaves in free agency they won’t even get a comp pick due to the additions they’ve made dwarfing the number of players they’ve lost.
Mayowa-Irvin-Collier-Green might be better than Mingo-Marsh-Jefferson-Martin — but can anyone be sure?
There’s still time to make further moves. But let’s consider the options. You could pair Everson Griffen (33 this year) or Clay Matthews (34 this year) with Irvin (33 this year) and Mayowa. You’ll have the oldest pass rush in the NFL (possibly ever) which might not do much for the other glaring issue on defense (defending the perimeter run).
Or you could trade a first round pick for the opportunity to negotiate a massive contract for Yannick Nagkoue. Essentially trading a key asset to give Ngakoue the money you wouldn’t offer to Clark or Clowney.
The other trade option is to spend a lesser pick for Matthew Judon but still pay him $15.8m for this year (the Ravens tagged him as a linebacker). If you want to extend his contract, presumably you’ll also need to offer him the money you weren’t willing to conjure up for Clowney and Clark.
Judon also comes from one of the more creative blitzing defensive schemes in the league. He’s not used to rushing with four consistently and needing to create pressure in more conventional ways.
If none of these moves appeal — there’s always the draft. Yet as mentioned — it’s not a good D-line draft. You’d likely have to fight the board to spend your top pick on a pass rusher. There are players who could fit in Seattle’s scheme — but there’s not a cluster of twitchy speed rushers or dynamic, agile five-techniques. The combine workouts for the defensive linemen this year were the least impressive we’ve seen in years.
If they did force a D-line pick early — would it be a repeat of the Collier selection? A case of needing to address a massive need and taking ‘the best player remaining at the position’ rather than tapping into the superior options that will be available on the O-line, at receiver and at running back? I can tell you the pro’s and con’s of players like Josh Uche, Julian Okwara, Jabari Zuniga and others. Can I tell you they’re fixing a pass rush in 2020? Absolutely not.
Worse still — there’s a realistic prospect that we’ll be here again in twelve months. The pass rush problems will still not be resolved long term.
For a well run franchise like the Seahawks to have a need as big as fixing the pass rush last three off-seasons — that would be quite staggering.
It’s especially confounding considering Seattle’s desire to rush with four players. They’re not like the Buccaneers who blitz almost every down. They’re not like the Ravens with their different looks and creative ways to bring pressure. The Seahawks want to simply line up and beat you with four. You need talent to do that and a good rotation. Yet it’s the one area, over the last two off-seasons, where they haven’t been willing to pay for it.
It also seriously jeopardises their ability to take the next step on the field. Since 2015 they’ve been stuck as a perennial playoff team who never gets beyond the divisional round. Russell Wilson asked for ‘superstars’ for a reason. The Seahawks needed an injection of talent this off-season and to fix the pass rush. They’ve added depth, potentially lost their best defensive lineman and not become obviously better aside from the Quinton Dunbar trade (and even he will need to be a rare outside-cornerback-who-fits-in-the-system).
What started as a solvable problem at the end of the 2018 season (add more talent on the D-line to go with Reed and Clark) has turned into a crisis that they continue to struggle to solve.
Here’s a reminder of the 2019 stats:
— The Seahawks finished with 28 sacks, second fewest in the league behind only Miami (23)
— Their sack percentage was 4.5% — third worst overall
— The Seahawks produced a sack or quarterback hit on just 14.4% of opponents’ pass plays — worst in the NFL
— They had only 126 pressures, sixth fewest in the league behind Detroit (125), Oakland (117), Houston (117), Atlanta (115) and Miami (96)
— Seattle’s pressure percentage was the fourth worst in the league (19.3%) behind Detroit (18.9%), Houston (18.1%) and Miami (16.7%)
— Seattle hit the quarterback 68 times — fourth fewest
— They had 52 TFL’s — fourth fewest
— They gave up 55 explosive running plays on defense, seventh most in the NFL
— Their explosive run play percentage (14%) was the third worst overall behind only Carolina (16%) and Cleveland (15%)
— They gave up 4.9 YPC — fourth most overall
— They had 131 during the regular season — fourth most.
It’s not Seattle’s only issue either. It’s quite a few years since John Schneider said on the radio he wanted the Seahawks to become the bully again. That never happened. They have some physically imposing players — such as Duane Brown and Chris Carson. The Seahawks, however, are not bullies. We saw that when Cody Barton was given a prime opportunity to slam Aaron Rodgers into the Lambeau turf during the playoff game but instead allowed Rodgers to execute a block to spring a nice gain.
Quite aside from having to fix this enormous need on the defensive line — they’ve also got to draft some players this year who won’t be blocked by 36-year-old quarterbacks on the perimeter.
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Isaiah Wilson is a probable option for the Seahawks
I’ll preface this by saying these are some of the options. Of course there are others that they could be higher on than I’m suggesting here. Yet we have a decade of evidence to work with in terms of previous decisions. So this is my best current guess.
Options at #27
Isaiah Wilson (T, Georgia)
Austin Jackson (T, USC)
Ezra Cleveland (T, Boise State)
Cesar Ruiz (C, Michigan)
Jalen Reagor (WR, TCU)
Denzel Mims (WR, Baylor)
Justin Jefferson (WR, LSU)
Jonathan Taylor (RB, Wisconsin)
Despite Seattle’s need for pass rushers, the options are severely limited in round one. The best fits in the first frame are at offensive tackle and the skill positions.
There’s clear evidence that the Seahawks value size, explosive power and run blocking in offensive linemen. They want speed and suddenness at wide receiver. They also have a physical ideal at running back that’s in the 5-10-to-6-0 range in height, 225lbs in weight with explosive traits.
At the combine, Isaiah Wilson finished second only to Tristan Wirfs in weighted TEF. That means he’s the second best combination of explosive traits and size in the O-line class. Although a lot of people will try and steer you to focus on things like agility for offensive linemen, there’s much more evidence that the league is focused on explosive traits (as highlighted in our combine preview). The Seahawks are no different in that regard.
Austin Jackson and Ezra Cleveland were also among the most explosive linemen at the combine. All three players, including Wilson, have +33 inch arms. Jackson and Cleveland are more suited to playing left tackle than right — yet all three players fit the typical physical profile the Seahawks have looked for in the Carroll era. Brandon Shell’s contract is more draft hedge that sure-fire solution. Jackson and Cleveland could also be groomed to be long term successors to Duane Brown.
At the moment the Seahawks appear set to carry Justin Britt’s contract and are well stocked with B.J. Finney and Joey Hunt in reserve at center. If it stays that way, they likely won’t spend a high pick on the position. However — Cesar Ruiz is an outstanding player with the size, length, explosive traits, character and leadership to lock-down the position for a decade. Check out my interview with Ruiz here.
The Seahawks have only drafted one receiver in the first four rounds under Carroll who didn’t run a 4.4 or faster. That was Chris Harper in 2013 — who ran a 4.50 and was taken in the fourth round. Quickness, speed and suddenness — regardless of size — has always been central in decision making at receiver. Again, we highlighted why in more detail during our big combine preview.
Jalen Reagor (4.47), Denzel Mims (4.38) and Justin Jefferson (4.43) fit the bill. Reagor’s explosive leaping ability to win contested catches and his ability to create easy separation could be especially appealing. Mims is a chunk play specialist who wins a lot of 50/50 balls. Jefferson is extremely reliable, has a terrific wingspan and according to PFF had the highest contested catch conversion of all draft eligible receivers.
Seattle wants to attack teams downfield in the passing game. It was obvious that Gary Jennings was a fit last year due to his 4.4 speed and ability to win downfield. Reagor, Mims and Jefferson play like Seahawks receivers.
Jonathan Taylor is physically the perfect Seahawks running back. His size, height and explosive testing is an ideal match. The fact he also ran a 4.39 is a mere bonus. He also creates yards after contact, produces chunk plays and is a threat to score any time he has the football. He doesn’t quite produce the physical tone-setting of a Marshawn Lynch, Thomas Rawls or Chris Carson — but it’s still a match made in heaven. There’s a reason Taylor was so keen on the idea of hooking up with the Seahawks.
Wildcard options at #27
K.J. Hamler (WR, Penn State)
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, Arizona State)
K’Lavon Chaisson (DE, LSU)
Yetur Gross-Matos (DE, Penn State)
K.J. Hamler didn’t test at the combine but it’s pretty clear on tape he has the speed and dynamic playmaking quality they seek. Even with an incomplete testing profile, he’s just too good to ignore.
Brandon Aiyuk ran a 4.50 which was slower than he appeared on tape. Yet he’s such a dynamic playmaker either by stretching the field or turning a short pass or screen into a huge gain.
K’Lavon Chaisson has the lowest pass rush win percentage of any EDGE in the draft class. He suffered a torn ACL in 2018 and he doesn’t have +33 inch arms. I suspect he will last on the board longer than the media is currently predicting. Would the Seahawks take him? I’m dubious. They might be willing to roll the dice on his upside — which is also a bit of a mystery seeing as he chose not to do anything at the combine.
Speaking of picking and choosing at the combine, that brings us on to Yetur Gross-Matos. He did all the positional drills and the two jumps. Yet he didn’t run a forty or do any agility testing. Why? There was no injury. He just wanted to perform on a faster track at pro-day. That’s never a good sign or a good look. So while he looks the part with great size and length — and he’s explosive — is he quick enough to win as an EDGE? Or is he more of a developmental five-technique?
Josh Uche didn’t test at the combine so he carries an incomplete physical profile. However, he had a stunning Senior Bowl performance where he showed off a relentless ability to bend and straighten as a pass rusher and create constant pressure. His pressure percentage mark for the 2019 season is outstanding (23.3%) and his pass rush win percentage (27%) is only 0.2% behind Chase Young.
He also has 33 inch arms and comes from a school they have a lot of respect for. It might be a bit rich to take Uche in round one but if Seattle’s priority is to add a complimentary pass rusher with their first pick — Uche could easily be the man.
Julian Okwara has ideal size for a LEO pass rusher and although he didn’t test at the combine, he reportedly ran a decent 4.60 at a recent ‘pro-day’. Okwara was third in pass rush win percentage (23%) behind only Young and Uche. He leads all players eligible for the draft in pressure percentage in 2018 and 2019 (19.1%).
Jabari Zuniga ran a 1.61 10-yard split at 264lbs and he’s the third most explosive defensive lineman in recent history behind only Myles Garrett, Ben Banogu and Solomon Thomas. In terms of weighted TEF (which accounts for weight + testing) he’s in the same range as Cesar Ruiz and Ezra Cleveland. He reportedly ran a 7.03 three-cone at Florida. His pass rush win percentage is 20% and he rushed from both end and tackle in college. He’s inconsistent and his arm length is 1/8 of an inch below the 33 inch threshold — but there just aren’t many players in this class with his physical profile, speed and upside.
The Seahawks have targeted two types of linebacker — incredible athletes and players who run elite short shuttle times (expressing outstanding short area quickness). Willie Gay’s combine performance was eerily similar to Bobby Wagner’s display at his pro-day in 2012. They ran the same 4.46 forty, the same 39.5 inch vertical and the difference in their three cone and short shuttle times was 0.02 seconds. There are question marks about Gay’s character but Willie McGinest has gone to bat for him recently (and he’s someone Carroll could consult pre-draft). Gay also ticks other boxes — he defends screens and the perimeter run very well plus he’s a playmaker who creates turnovers. The only question is whether the Seahawks view linebacker as a priority need with their first pick, which is debatable.
Josh Jones is not as explosive as some of the options discussed for the #27 pick. He didn’t fair particularly well in TEF or weighted TEF. Yet he has a demeanour on the field the Seahawks will like, he matches the size profile they want and he’s very capable of being developed to play either tackle spot or guard.
Wildcard options after trading down from #27
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, LSU)
Prince Tega Wanogho (T, Auburn)
Raekwon Davis (DT, Alabama)
Terrell Lewis (DE, Alabama)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is one of the best players in the draft at any position. He’s insanely explosive and physical. His ability in the passing game as a receiving option is about as good as you’ll see from a running back. He energised LSU during their title run and his jump-cut, acceleration and shifty agility is on a par with Barry Sanders (seriously). He doesn’t fit Seattle’s size ideals for the position and it’d be some move to take a running back first up. Yet Edwards-Helaire has everything you want at the position and he plays with a chip on his shoulder because of his height. Sound familiar?
Prince Tega Wanogho is the forgotten man of the draft class after injury kept him out of the Senior Bowl and combine. Don’t sleep on him though. He’s a very athletic and physical offensive tackle who moves well in space and could provide real value outside of the first round.
Raekwon Davis is a difficult player to work out. Physically he looks like a first round pick. The way he plays the run and solidified Alabama’s interior line also warrants early-round consideration. He shows flashes as a pass rusher too — hinting at untapped potential. Yet we’ve seen players fall due to a lack of sack and pressure production and Davis also has some maturity question marks according to reports. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he went in the top-40 or dropped deep into day two. Either way, he’s a physical force who fits the Calais Campbell mould Seattle has been searching for.
Terrell Lewis has a great pass rushing frame (although he’s a little high-cut) and his pass rush win percentage (19.8%) and pressure percentage (19.8%) are both impressive. Yet Alabama uses so many stunts and he has a tendency to want to dip inside all of the time and rarely tests an offensive tackle with speed off the edge. He handles his business in the running game and can drop into coverage. Yet there’s a significant injury history and you just want to see him win a bit more with pure quickness and speed.
Options at #59 and #64
Robert Hunt (T/G, Louisiana-Lafayette)
Damien Lewis (G, LSU)
Lloyd Cushenberry (C, LSU)
Matt Hennessy (C, Temple)
Nick Harris (C, Washington)
Hakeem Adeniji (G, Kansas)
Cam Akers (RB, Florida State)
Justin Madubuike (DT, Texas A&M)
Hunter Bryant (TE, Washington)
Kyle Dugger (S, Lenoir-Rhyne)
Matt Peart (T, Connecticut)
Robert Hunt is everything the Seahawks look for in an offensive lineman. He’s tough, physical, well sized, a tone-setter in the running game, he has positional flexibility, he’s faced football adversity and succeeded and he’s a terrific character. Don’t be surprised if he’s one of their ‘got to have’ guys in this class.
Damien Lewis has had to go through so much to get to the NFL. He is the definition of grit. He’s also a tremendous guard who shone at the Senior Bowl and dominated for LSU during their Championship season. He has the length and explosive traits they like but he is somewhat limited in terms of positional flexibility (he’s a guard only). Even so — he’s very underrated and warrants consideration on day two.
If the Seahawks need to draft a center and part ways with Justin Britt, there are three great options in the second or third round range. Lloyd Cushenberry and Matt Hennessy both had tremendous Senior Bowl performances and Nick Harris’ tape is far better than anything he showed in the 1v1 drills in Mobile. All three players are mature, high-character, high-intensity linemen. Hakeem Adeniji is a sleeper for round two as one of the most explosive O-liners in the draft. He played lights-out at the Senior Bowl too.
If Jonathan Taylor is the physical prototype at running back for Seattle, Cam Akers isn’t far behind. He ticks all the boxes for size and explosive traits. The Seahawks need to bolster their depth at running back in this draft so don’t be surprised if they take Akers in round two. It’s possible it could be Taylor early or Akers as the fall-back. But the likes of D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins and of course, Edwards-Helaire, warrant consideration. It’s a top-heavy running back class with five great options early.
The Seahawks have a certain way of doing things at defensive tackle. You have to be disciplined in the one-gap system, you have to do your job and ideally you have the athleticism and power to make plays within the scheme. You can’t freelance and move around and be reckless. Madubuike is intriguing for many reasons. Firstly, on tape he’s the ideal one-gapper. He plays off the shoulder of the offensive lineman very well, he stays clean and he’s difficult to shift in the running game. He has +33 inch arms and he does a great job with leverage. His pass rush win percentage of 14.9% was third best among defensive tackles in this class (behind only Javon Kinlaw and Jordan Elliott). And yet it feels like there’s more to come from him as a rusher. He ran a superb 4.83 at the combine and looked tremendous during drills — moving with great fluidity and ease.
Kyle Dugger is an alpha male. If you want to talk about grit and character — he has it. He possibly won’t last to #59 or #64 but his combination of speed, physicality, character and special teams value could be appealing. I’m not sure Seattle will prioritise the safety position though. That’s why I didn’t include Antoine Winfield or Jeremy Chinn in the first two groups. They have Quandre Diggs and Bradley McDougald plus they’re only a year removed from spending a second round pick on Marquise Blair. There’s not much point collecting young safeties only to have them sit on the bench.
Matt Peart performed well in TEF, had a strong showing at the Senior Bowl and his measurements are first class. He’s 6-7, 318lbs and he has 36 5/8 inch arms. His coaches speak positively about his willingness to be coached. He’s experienced at right tackle but could be groomed for either side of the line. He has enormous potential.
Wildcard options at #59 and #64
Curtis Weaver (DE, Boise State)
Bradlee Anae (DE, Utah)
Laviska Shenault (WR, Colorado)
Logan Wilson (LB, Wyoming)
Bryan Edwards (WR, South Carolina)
DaVon Hamilton (DT, Ohio State)
Curtis Weaver has an uncommon body shape for a pass rusher and he has short arms. Yet all he did at Boise State was provide sacks and pressures. His pass rush win percentage was fourth best in this class at a very healthy 22.9%. His pressure percentage in 2018 and 2019 combined (18.2%) was second only to Julian Okwara. There’s one test to keep an eye on — the short shuttle. This is a position where the Seahawks seem to value a good short shuttle time. Weaver ran a superb 4.27. As noted in my write-up on Weaver a month ago — that puts him in good company. I’m not sure the Seahawks will take a punt on a player who is so unlike every other player at his position in terms of frame — but he has the production and they need someone who can get after the quarterback.
Bradlee Anae has short arms, he ran a 4.93 at 257lbs and he only managed a 7.44 three cone and a 4.43 short shuttle. Nothing about his physical profile says high pick or Seahawks selection. Yet the results go against everything that profile tells us. His pass rush win percentage of 20.2% was superior to Zach Baun (20.1%), Jabari Zuniga (20%) and Yetur Gross-Matos (18.9%). He was a terror at the Senior Bowl. He was a captain at Utah — a school they often draft from — and he plays with his hair on fire. They might stick to twitch after L.J. Collier’s rookie season but I’m loathe to rule out Anae completely.
For Laviska Shenault, the consistent injuries are a major concern. So is the inability to properly medically clear him in the lead up to the draft. However — a year ago the Seahawks took a shot on upside at the position at #64 and delivered one of their best draft picks over the last few years in D.K. Metcalf. They might be tempted to take another shot if Shenault falls — which seems increasingly likely. The better question might be — how much upside does he actually have after running a 4.58?
Logan Wilson had a tremendous combine. He was a three-year captain at Wyoming, a constant playmaker and he’s a calm, mature character. He moves very well in space, does a terrific job working against the perimeter run and unlike some Seahawks rookies — he knows how to get off a block and make a play. He didn’t run a 4.10-4.19 short shuttle to put him right in the mix but his 4.27 time is still good — as is an impressive 4.63 forty. For more on Wilson click here.
There are three big, powerful defensive tackles who might appeal to the Seahawks as cheap, serviceable run blockers. Leki Fotu at Utah is one. Rashard Lawrence at LSU is another. DaVon Hamilton arguably has more upside. He flashed real presence in 1v1’s at the Senior Bowl and then had a good combine in terms of explosive testing. 37.5% of his tackles in 2019 were TFL’s. He’s a plug-in-and-play tackle who could create a really physical duo with Jarran Reed.
Meanwhile — the latest on Jadeveon Clowney is Mike Garofolo says the chances of him re-signing in Seattle are ‘slim to none’. If that’s true, then they need to move on pronto and go and make some other moves. They cannot see a weakness in the pass rush, lose their best defensive lineman (and self-confessed huge priority) and then believe they adequately dealt with the situation by signing Bruce Irvin and Benson Mayowa, before handcuffing themselves to defensive linemen in the draft.
Whether it’s Everson Griffen, Yannick Ngakoue, Matt Judon or someone else. This needs to be addressed.
Don’t forget to check out yesterday’s interview with Lance Zierlein. I’ve got two more interviews scheduled for Wednesday. Stay tuned for details…
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