It’s very important to establish why certain statistics exist.
Listening to the radio and Pete Carroll’s press conference yesterday, there were several references to the ‘good’ run defense and the number of pressures and QB hits the Seahawks are delivering.
Stats can be deceptive, however. In isolation they don’t always tell the full story.
So let’s do some fact checking using Pro Football Reference.
“The Seahawks are hitting the quarterback a lot and this is good news!”
Seattle leads the NFL in QB knockdowns after three weeks (18) and their knockdown percentage is 11.6% (sixth best).
They also rank second in the NFL for pressures (37) although their pressure percentage is only middle-of-the-road (22.4% — 16th in the NFL).
Without context, these stats suggest Seattle’s defensive line is doing a better job than many people think.
A more extensive look at the stats tells a different story.
If you blitz often, you will manufacture pressure.
If you send six or seven defenders to take on five blockers — you will have players in the backfield and you will hit the quarterback.
Seattle’s blitz percentage is 36.4% — fifth highest in the league. In comparison, last year they blitzed only 26.9% of the time and in 2018 the number drops to 18.4%.
The Seahawks are currently blitzing more than Gregg Williams (32.7%). They have blitzed 60 times, second most in the NFL behind only the Steelers (65).
Jamal Adams has blitzed 33 times so far — the second most among any player in the league behind only Shaquill Barrett (37). Had Adams finished the game on Sunday, the chances are he would be leading the NFL in blitzing.
The high number of pressures and QB knockdowns are simply a result of Seattle’s increased blitzing this year.
For example, the Pittsburgh Steelers have by far the most pressures in the NFL after three games with 59 (22 more than second placed Seattle). They also blitz 51.2% of the time — way more than anyone else. It’s 7.4% more than the second heaviest blitzers (Tampa Bay — 43.8%).
The reason the Steelers have so many pressures is directly because they are blitzing on more than half of their snaps.
Seattle’s QB knockdowns and pressures are equally manufactured because they are blitzing more than they’ve ever done under Pete Carroll.
It’s not indicative of defensive line improvement or success. It’s simply a byproduct of a more aggressive approach.
The key to success when blitzing is sacks — not pressures or knockdowns. If you are bringing the house you have to get home. If Jamal Adams bursts into the backfield and hits the quarterback but the pass is complete — that counts as a pressure but it can still lead to a big play (as we are seeing).
Seattle’s sack percentage, despite their blitzing, is just 3.1%. It’s the fifth worst in the NFL. That is the problem and that is the key statistic to focus on.
Let’s look at the five worst teams for sack percentage and how often they blitz:
Carolina — 1.7 % sack percentage, 14.4% blitz percentage
Minnesota — 2.8% sack percentage, 32.7% blitz percentage
Las Vegas — 2.9% sack percentage, 23.1% blitz percentage
Detroit — 2.9% sack percentage, 22.9% blitz percentage
Seattle — 3.1% sack percentage, 36.4% blitz percentage
With the exception of struggling Minnesota (who are missing Danielle Hunter), none of the other teams are blitzing anywhere near the rate the Seahawks are. Seattle’s sack percentage is comparable to Detroit and Las Vegas but they are playing so much more aggressively to try and sack the quarterback.
This is a failure.
They are producing sacks at the rate of teams who rarely blitz — and yet they are one of the heaviest blitzers in the NFL.
Let’s go back to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who lead the league is blitzing. Their blitz percentage is 51.2% but their sack percentage is 12.3% — also the highest in the league. That is what it’s supposed to look like.
Tampa Bay, who blitz 43.8% of the time, have a sack percentage of 9.7%.
The simple fact is there’s no comfort to take from Seattle’s increasing pressures and knockdowns. That is an inevitability of blitzing at the rate the Seahawks are. The problem they have is despite being so aggressive in bringing heat, their sack percentage is poor.
It creates a perfect storm of mediocrity. You’re exposing the second and third level of your defense by blitzing so much but by not sacking the quarterback, you’re giving them an opportunity to expose your limited numbers at the back end and find mismatch opportunities.
For example:
A downside to how much the Seahawks are blitzing Jamal Adams is that it can leave situations like this:
A LB ends up having to cover a WR in man coverage due to the pressure rules being the final eligible receiver count (#3 for the LB here) as opposed to a "like body" (RB/TE). pic.twitter.com/0vHPivMZAm
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 29, 2020
Hits and pressures are nice but the Seahawks will continue to give up a NFL-leading 430.7 passing yards per game, 6.6 yards-per-play and will blow-up the league record for passing yards conceded in a season (they’re on pace to give up 6891) unless they turn these blitzes into more sacks or they blitz less and find a way to do a better job rushing with four.
“Seattle’s run defense is really good!”
This is an even bigger mirage.
Teams do not need to run against the Seahawks and the stats make this case very well. Seattle isn’t ‘taking away the run’ and ‘forcing teams to pass’. Opponents are simply ignoring the run and preferring to pass.
There are two reasons for this.
One, the Seahawks are doing a good job applying scoreboard pressure and forcing teams to ‘chase the game’. That isn’t conducive with running the ball and ultimately it isn’t a review of Seattle’s run defense. This is down to the success of Russell Wilson and the offense.
Secondly, teams are passing for 430.7 yards per game and it’s too easy to throw against Seattle. The Cowboys had a three-play, 75-yard scoring drive that lasted 48 seconds on Sunday. Throws for 13 yards, 22 yards and 40 yards had them in the endzone. They then had a three-play 93-yard drive that lasted only 39 seconds. Throws for 52 yards and 42 yards were enough to score a touchdown.
The Seahawks gave up similar drives against both Atlanta and New England.
They’ve conceded more explosive pass plays than any other team in the league. They’ve surrendered 18 pass plays of +20 yards and six pass plays of +40 yards.
Are passing yards against everything? No. However, there’s a difference between giving up slow, time-consuming drives and giving up loads of explosive plays that lead to quick touchdowns. The Seahawks are giving up far too many explosive plays.
Basically opponents don’t need to run. They are saving their running games for short yardage and goal line situations, having thrown to get into position to score.
Atlanta, New England and Dallas only combined to run 67 times against the Seahawks — the third lowest total in the league behind only Pittsburgh (61) and Green Bay (63).
The difference between the Seahawks, Steelers and Packers is quite simple. Passing yards conceded:
Seahawks — 1292
Steelers — 708
Packers — 741
When you combine Pittsburgh’s sack percentage (12.3%), passing yards conceded (708) and running yards conceded (162) you can make a strong case for them possessing a rounded, elite defense. Last week they were ranked #2 in the NFL on defense by DVOA.
The Seahawks are in a totally different situation. Their sack percentage is 3.1%, they’ve given up 1292 passing yards and 200 running yards. This isn’t rounded at all. It’s emphatically weighted towards a negative pass defense.
Teams are having their merry way with Seattle when they throw the ball. It makes the running game a complete irrelevance.
Seattle is giving up, on average, 8.5 yards per attempted pass (second highest in the NFL). In comparison, Tennessee have the worst yards-per-run statistic so far at 5.8 YPC. So even compared to the worst running defense in the league, you’re still getting nearly three more yards per play if you throw against the Seahawks.
Running against Seattle simply makes no sense. Not because they are doing anything right but because they’re doing so much wrong in the passing game.
Media members and fans have been quick to praise Seattle’s 3.0 YPC conceded so far. That’s the third best mark in the league, behind the Steelers (2.7) and Buccaneers (2.9). Again though, this doesn’t come close to telling the whole story.
As noted, teams have only attempted to run against the Seahawks 67 times so far. This includes a combined 18 runs by Matt Ryan, Cam Newton and Dak Prescott — most of which were clear short yardage situations or scrambles.
These types of runs are not intended to lead to big gains. A small sample size can easily be impacted if you have teams running mostly in short-yardage situations. If the max-gain on a play is a couple of yards, you’re not going to see a high YPC average.
In comparison, Pittsburgh’s 61 runs faced include two rushes by Jeff Driskel, four runs by Daniel Jones and one run by Deshaun Watson for a total of seven quarterback carries — 11 fewer than Seattle has faced.
The Packers have faced only five quarterback carries (four by Kirk Cousins, one by Matt Stafford). Without the high number of quarterback carries in their first three games, the Seahawks would’ve faced by far the fewest runs in the NFL.
Zeke Elliott ran only 14 times against the Seahawks on Sunday. Three of those runs came on one drive on first and goal (one from the five-yard line and two from the one-yard line, leading to a touchdown). A further carry came on fourth and 1 (converted) and another carry came on 2nd and 1. He also ran the ball from his own end zone leading to the safety, with the Seahawks wisely guessing the play-call and bringing the house to score two points.
Nearly half of his carries were in situations not conducive with big gains. So again, this impacts YPC.
Pro Football Reference has a statistic called ‘expected points contributed by rushing defense’. The Steelers lead the league with a score of 13.64. This means their run defense is helping them gain the value of a couple of touchdowns per week. Tampa Bay, who are blitzing at a similar rate to the Seahawks and have conceded a similar number of yards in the running game (200 vs 211) are gaining 10.94 points of benefit from their run defense per week.
The Seahawks are only gaining 3.22 points from their run defense.
It perfectly highlights the difference between a ‘good’ run defense and an ‘irrelevant’ run defense.
So what about the passing game? Pro Football Reference also projects ‘expected points contributed by passing defense’. Seattle’s passing defense is contributing -47.16 points per game — third worst in the league behind only Jacksonville (-53.57) and Atlanta (-48.06).
It means that Seattle’s passing defense is so bad that it’s giving opponents a near 50-point advantage week-to-week. Only the brilliance of Russell Wilson is enabling them to survive this so far.
The Seahawks’ run defense isn’t bad. It’s just totally irrelevant because the passing defense is atrocious. You don’t need to run unless you have to (short yardage). If you throw, you will be able to move the ball with ease and you will get explosive plays.
That’s the context of what Seattle’s defense is I’m afraid.
“Seattle’s secondary will make up for a bad pass rush!”
This was a common refrain during the off-season. The reality is very different.
Shaquill Griffin leads the NFL in yards given up (319). Quinton Dunbar is second (212) despite missing the Dallas game. Jamal Adams is seventh (209).
Tre Flowers has only started one game but he’s already been credited with 146 yards conceded. Quandre Diggs has given up 84 yards.
Both Adams and Diggs are among the league leaders in receiving yards per target (14.0 and 13.9 respectively).
Griffin is responsible for giving up three touchdowns — the most in the league by a defensive back. He’s also being picked on with 29 targets — second only to Darqueze Dennard (32).
Teams are completing 78.6% of their passes thrown at Flowers, 75.9% thrown at Griffin, 73.3% at Adams and 61.9% at Dunbar.
Quarterbacks have a 133.9 passer rating throwing at Flowers and a 131.2 rating throwing at Griffin.
Adams also leads the team in missed tackle percentage with 11.5%.
The second coming of the Legion of Boom? A group capable of making up for a terrible looking defensive line?
Not really.
I suspect the numbers would improve if the Seahawks weren’t having to blitz so much. Jamal Adams is a good blitzer and it’s a big part of his game but the total reliance on him as a pass rusher so far doesn’t seem to be doing him any favours.
If the Seahawks could rush with four 10% more of the time and actually win some 1v1 battles up front, then this would probably help the secondary in a big way.
However, this doesn’t excuse some of the numbers above — particularly in the case of Griffin and Flowers. They’re simply not doing a good enough job.
Rather than the secondary prop up the defensive line, the Seahawks need to improve their pass rush to take the pressure off a struggling secondary.
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