Month: December 2021 (Page 3 of 3)

Curtis Allen’s week thirteen watch points (vs San Francisco)

December 4, 2021 /

Note: This is a guest post by Curtis Allen and the latest piece in a weekly series. Curtis looks at the Seahawks and their opponents and discusses key factors…

The Pete Carroll era in Seattle is tortuously grinding to an undignified end. The Seahawks sit at 3-8 and all proclamations – from the head coach down to the players – about competing and winning are ringing hollow. The NFL is a results-driven business and they have failed to deliver results.

How badly? It is Week Thirteen and the team has one win at home. The last time anything like this happened? 1992, when they beat Denver on…Week Thirteen. Everyone knows that season as the one the team bottomed out with a franchise-worst 2-14 record.

To make matters worse, just like last week, the Seahawks are facing a foe that is riding a three-game winning streak of impressive performances.

San Francisco has been playing extremely clean and effective football in wins over the Rams, Jaguars and Vikings in their last three games. A quick look at the reasons behind their success:

Those are fantastic numbers and they spell real trouble for the time-of-possession challenged Seahawks. In order to succeed, they will need to find a way to break the patterns they find themselves in.

How can the Seahawks deliver a win and begin to build some momentum in order to close the season with at least some positivity? We’ll have a look in this week’s watch points.

Note: Several themes are culled from Week Four’s post against the Niners, which is fitting since the Seahawks are still struggling with many of the same issues raised.

Curtis Allen’s week four watch points (vs 49ers)

Do not allow easy yards on defense

One of the real keys to the Niners’ success in the last three games is they are limiting Jimmy Garoppolo’s exposure. In those three games, he only has 67 passes thrown, or an average of 22 passes per game. That is his sweet spot, as he cannot carry this offense effectively. In that same stretch he only has one interception, and only five passes defended. He also gets good support from his team, from Kyle Shanahan coaching easy throws into the offense and his receivers being among the league leaders in fewest passes dropped.

I wrote this in Week Four:

At this point in his NFL career, the die has been cast with Garoppolo. He is a good quarterback but not a great one. He can work with a system but elevating his team with his play is beyond his capability.

San Francisco has acknowledged this by mortgaging the future to get Trey Lance in the draft.

In the meantime, Shanahan has to work with Garoppolo much in the same manner that Sean McVay had to with Jared Goff. Plan an offense around him that does not ask too much of him, with many short passes that do not require pinpoint accuracy and decision-making.

You will get a few different things — some wildly creative runs set up by motion, a few quick throws behind the line of scrimmage to the playmaking wide receivers and screen pass after screen pass. Shanahan only asks Jimmy to throw past the sticks about 5-7 times per game because he is not accurate and is prone to turnovers, particularly when pressured.

They must force more of the offensive weight onto Garoppolo by minimizing the run and yards after the catch in the passing game.

A primary target for the Seahawk defense will be Elijah Mitchell.

The sixth-round rookie missed the Week Four matchup but has been a revelation this season for the Niners. In the last two games he has 54 runs for 224 yards, eleven first downs and a touchdown. He has supplemented those numbers with five catches for 35 yards, a first down and a touchdown.

He currently sits fourth in the NFL among running backs with at least 100 rushes with 2.4 yards per carry after contact and he has eleven broken tackles.

Deebo Samuel has also been extremely effective in the run game, with a sparkling performance against the Vikings with six runs for 66 yards and two touchdowns. It appears a groin injury will keep him out of Sunday’s game. That is a huge loss for the Niner offense, and the Seahawks will need to take advantage of his absence.

One way the Seahawks can be effective against Garoppolo? Flooding coverage behind the line of scrimmage.

Garoppolo’s numbers against the blitz are sparkling this season:

Every meaningful stat tells us the Seahawks are better off just rushing with the front four (no matter how bad that sounds) and deploying seek-and-destroy weapons like Ryan Neal and Jamal Adams to minimize runs and keep the run and quick misdirection-style passing game in check.

For all of this to work though, the team absolutely must be resolved to playing tough, committed defense.

Plays like this must be avoided at all costs:

Watch George Kittle. He acquires Quandre Diggs like a heat-seeking missile and drives him from the three-yard line about seven yards deep into the end zone.

Mohamed Sanu on Ugo Amadi. Kyle Juszczyk on D.J.Reed. All those blocks are well-executed, and there is only one defender that is completely free to make a play…

Bobby Wagner.

Look at this screen grab here:

As Samuel is crossing the 11-yard line, Bobby has correctly diagnosed the play. He is advancing from the 2-yard line to intercept.

What are the chances Bobby makes that tackle and keeps Deebo out of the end zone?

From Wagner’s rookie year up until 2018, 99.99%. Bet the house.

In 2019-2020? 75%. Very solid bet.

This year? The number is dipping fast.

Bobby’s attempt here is so uncharacteristic it is shocking. You expect him to lay the wood on this play – Samuel is perfectly lined up and Wagner has all the room in the world to wind up and lower his shoulder and punish him for daring to run into his area, let alone try to score a touchdown.

Instead, he appears to jog in, goes for his feet, and Samuel powers right through and fights into the end zone. The lack of emotion displayed after missing a tackle so badly, again, is strangely uncharacteristic.

I do not know what the issue is. Fatigue, an undisclosed injury, some lack of motivation due to their dreadful season, or something else. Maybe he is anticipating Ugo Amadi comes off that Sanu block better and eases up in pursuit?

But it is emblematic of the defense we have been seeing lately. To have a chance at success, they must tackle with more effort and keep the Niners from protecting their glaring weakness at quarterback.

Give Russell Wilson some assistance

The offensive line this year has been challenged to keep Russell Wilson clean. Facing a tough San Francisco pass rush provides a serious roadblock to throwing the ball and moving it effectively.

We all saw that happen in Week Four. Here are the game highlights:

Wilson was sacked three times and chased from the pocket by the pass rush several times in the first half alone. While he will occasionally escape the onslaught and make a breathtaking play (7:20), the Seahawks would be wise to devise some plays to help him be not so much of a sitting duck in the pocket.

When they got a slick little leak-screen play to Collins (4:26) the offense got going. They then let Russell roll out and give him time to assess his options and then run for a first down (5:26).

And Russell’s ‘fine I’ll do it myself’ touchdown run was a thing of beauty (6:30).

As I wrote last week, getting Russell’s legs and some adrenaline involved early in the game can only benefit the Seahawks. It can open up all kinds of options.

One of those options is play-action passes. Have a look at NextGen Stats’ analysis on Russell’s play-action success against the Niners in Week Four.

Is play-action success predicated on first ‘establishing the run’ as Pete Carroll often alludes to? No it is not:

The play-action pass is the best play in football

If the Seahawks insist on rolling out an offense that continually puts Russell Wilson in harm’s way and makes him the only option for success as a team, they are dooming themselves to repeat this cycle they seem locked in.

Another way to help Wilson out is by running the ball more effectively than they have been.

Attack the middle of the defense

This is another callback from Week Four’s watch points:

San Francisco has a defense that makes excellent use of their top players. They are creative and are schemed so well they appear to have twelve players on the field at times. They can simultaneously blitz and have deep support. They can rely on their front four to cause problems for the quarterback and flood coverage to clog the throwing lanes. They have options and a creative defensive coordinator.

However, there is a demonstrated spot in this defense that can and has been exploited so far in 2021 — right up the gut. And the Seahawks are well positioned to attack it.

The Seahawks had some success rushing inside on the Niners in Week Four:

They should have some opportunities to build on that with word that linebacker star Fred Warner is out and Dre Greenlaw in serious doubt to play Sunday.

The team must be able to exploit these missing players. Kyle Fuller was the center for that game, as Ethan Pocic was still recovering from injury. He has been a slight upgrade, and a good game from him would be a godsend this week. Hopefully Damien Lewis can return this week at Left Guard, and the Seahawks can open some holes for the runners to get to the second level and take advantage of the backups playing.

Get D.K. Metcalf on track

The Seahawks have tied themselves in knots with Metcalf.

Clearly, not getting the ball to your rising superstar until the fourth quarter – as they did last week against Washington – is unacceptable. Pete Carroll has no answers. He says they had ‘looks’ for him but they were not advantageous.

The problem here is that he is clearly a talented player and able to change the face of how the defense plays the rest of the game. Yet by waiting until late in the game to start targeting him, they both frustrate the player and could disrupt their rhythm by forcing throws his way that may not be there.

As well, by forcing a throw to Metcalf after ignoring him for the bulk of the game, they telegraph their intentions and open themselves up for real trouble:

To avoid all this, they need to get Metcalf involved early and often.

Look at some of the highlights from Week Four:

At 4:40, we see the Seahawks lined up on third and 1. Metcalf gives Emmanuel Moseley a little jam as if he is run-blocking and then takes off on a simple crossing route, leaving Moseley in the dust for an easy-as-pie Russell Wilson throw for a nice gain.

The next play at 4:50, Metcalf is lined up in the slot over a linebacker. Wilson wipes the drool off his mouth, lets Metcalf shimmy him out of position and then power over Jimmy Ward for a touchdown. The Seahawks absolutely need to move Metcalf into the slot more often to find these kinds of mismatches.

At 6:16, they set up a simple screen play, bring Duane Brown out to lead the way and Metcalf has a nice gain. Moseley diagnoses the play and breaks on it and smartly tries to tackle Metcalf low but misses.

All of these plays are makeable for the Seahawks, especially early in the game. They just cannot treat Metcalf like any other player on the roster. If he gets going early, the defense is forced to adjust and that opens up all kinds of options, even in the run game.

Of course, not all of this is on quarterback or the offensive playcaller. Metcalf needs to establish himself as a stone-lock reliable target. That includes fighting for contested balls. See 5:38 in the video. Wilson slightly underthrows Metcalf but that is a catchable ball. Moseley knocks it away to kill a drive.

Contested balls are currently Metcalf’s kryptonite. He needs to come down with more of those to truly take the next step in his ascension.

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Friday notes: Debating is fun, plus more draft/Seahawks

December 3, 2021 /

Robust debate is always best

It was brought to my attention this week that I was called an arse hole by Nathan Ernst during an episode of ‘Real Hawk Talk‘. The two people co-hosting appeared to agree.

My crime, at least in this instance, was to post a YouTube video revealing what I thought was a lack of effort from Jamal Adams and Bobby Wagner on a handful of plays, while highlighting their combined average salaries are $35.5m a year.

Not being one to let a barb like that lie, I felt obliged to write a response.

Firstly, I’ve disagreed plenty of times with the Hawkblogger crew. I’ve said as much on some streams or comments — or I’ve tweeted them directly (especially Brian). I like to think it’s always presented as argument vs argument — even if some of those challenges are robust. I always think you’re better off just cutting to the chase — although I’ll happily admit that striking the right tone in 220 characters is not a strong point for me and I’m a better ‘debater’ as a talker.

Ernst used a slightly different debating tactic here, opting for the two-word (rather than one-fingered) salute. He justified it by suggesting it was outrageous to question effort (seemingly ever) because these players play a particularly physical sport professionally. He ended by telling me to ‘shut the hell up’.

So in the case of Wagner — if a player has an excellent career, good enough to earn a deal worth $17-20m on the cap — you’re never allowed to question their effort on certain plays simply because of the sport they are playing? Even if what you see on tape points you in that direction?

It’s basically putting a shield around the players.

The thing is — let’s say I’d simply used the word ‘performance’ instead of ‘effort’ in the video. If I’d said — ‘is this performance good enough?’ and then shown the clips, does it really make any difference? The evidence implies a lack of effort. That would be the conclusion you’d come to watching the plays.

I don’t think this is a taboo subject. You can both admire the warrior-like achievements of players and then question whether their effort matches their salary down the line.

I don’t watch all-22 tape very often. I did go back and watch Wagner in particular for multiple games and I noticed a trend that he was hesitant on plays. He seemed to be avoiding contact a lot more than I expected to see.

He was not playing with urgency. There’s one play against Jacksonville for example, which isn’t in the video, where he’s reading a bootleg, sees it’s a carry to the opposite side (no PA). He’s peaking at the ball carrier. There’s a lineman who peels to the second level to make a block. Wagner can still see a clear route to the ball-carrier yet he just stands there. You watch it and think, what’s the thought process here?

Here’s one from the last game. Is it wrong to expect a bit more from a player earning $17,150,000?

I don’t think Wagner is a bad player. I do think his play has regressed, I think there are increasing instances on tape where he avoids contact (for whatever reason) and I don’t think you can justify — in any way, shape or form — his 2022 cap hit of $20m.

I also know there are people who understand football a lot more than I do who feel the same way.

No name-calling from me in response. I’ve have had two members of that show on my streams. We’ve not always agreed on everything but we’ve been able to have mature, detailed discussions which, in my opinion, were as good as any Seahawks content available on the internet.

Robust debate may just get us all through the difficult next few months (or it’ll make us all hate each other, one or the other).

Thoughts on two 2022 pass rushers

In the continued search to find out more about the upcoming draft class, I spent time today studying South Carolina’s Kingsley Enagbare and San Diego State’s Cameron Thomas.

Enagbare reminds me of a bigger Yannick Ngakoue. He runs the same move — engaging with his hands, hopping to the side then thrashing out a chop/swim to disengage.

There is a size difference. Enagbare is listed at 265lbs and Ngakoue was 252lbs at his combine. Their body types are different and it’s not a physical comparison. It’s more how they play.

Enagbare doesn’t have top-end speed off the edge but neither did Ngakoue (4.75 forty, 4.50 short shuttle). What he does have is great hand use. He can dip and rip to win at the edge. He uses the push/pull effectively. He times inside moves nicely and he knows how to create pressure and keep himself clean by using his hands.

That alone should earn him a chance to succeed in the NFL. It’s just whether he has enough speed to really challenge NFL blockers.

His speed/power move lacks polish and he often gets tied up in the block. His production is modest — 4.5 sacks in 12 games and seven TFL’s. It’ll be interesting to see how he tests.

I didn’t see a player worthy of some of the top grades people are offering online but that’s starting to feel like the norm with this class. Enagbare is another player who appears destined to be the type of player you’d love to take a chance on during day two but without great testing, it’ll be difficult to bang the table for him any earlier. Lots of potential — but someone you perhaps will ‘like’ not ‘love’.

Cameron Thomas does have the big production this year (20 TFL’s, 10.5 sacks). He’s 6-5 and 270lbs and he does a terrific job when he lines up inside or delivers a stunt. He has a great swim move and shows good hand usage.

He’s incredibly powerful and seems to understand leverage. He has a knack of having bursts of splash plays. In one game I watched, he basically ended the first two drives single-handed by bossing his way into the backfield by combining technical quality with his hands and using speed to finish when the opening emerged.

The one question I have is whether he has a speed rush off the edge. It doesn’t look like he has the club in the bag. That’s the thing that stops you falling for him. His power inside and technical skill are great points — but he’s too small to make a permanent switch to tackle, I’m not sold on him being a 5-tech and he’s going to line up as a power end who reduces inside sometimes.

To pitch him in round one you’d need to see that burst — that raw speed. And it never really comes. There’s a lot to like with Thomas and his production is really impressive in 2021. The difference between him being a day two pick and a first will be testing.

A quick note on the Blazers firing their GM

I wouldn’t read too much into Vulcan Sports making a big call in Portland. There may be similarities between the Blazers and Seahawks but there are also big differences.

I will say this though. Increasingly it feels, to me at least, like there’s some clarity on what is developing here…

1. I think this will be Pete Carroll’s last year. I don’t see him launching what could be a long rebuild, especially given the 2017 reports that he was considering retirement even before the previous reset. I think this will be his final season and despite everything going on now, he will depart a hero.

2. I think if John Schneider stays, he will be of the mind to trade Russell Wilson for picks. I think the aim will be to acquire a young ‘stop-gap’ quarterback in return, as a new search is launched for a long term answer. Yet I also think the Seahawks will ‘be in on any conversation’ for the other veteran quarterbacks available — namely Aaron Rodgers (who, according to Jason La Canfora, has a connection to Schneider due to the Green Bay links). Schneider only signed a new deal last off-season so unless he prefers a change of scenery, ownership might prefer to defer to him as they embark on a post-Carroll era.

3. It’ll be up to Jody Allen and co to decide whether they want to fall in behind Wilson and move on from both Carroll and Schneider (Wilson may prefer a fresh start anyway, making this a moot point). I think the Saints are going to find it difficult to jump into the veteran QB market this off-season and that might nudge Sean Payton to another club — as has been rumoured in the recent past on more than one occasion. A bold move like that could satisfy Wilson and the fan base — and it’s the kind of move you could imagine Paul Allen making — but admittedly it seems overly ambitious today.

4. If Wilson does depart — the Giants and Eagles seem like obvious destinations given their haul of picks in 2022 and the ability to throw in a young quarterback. The only problem is — neither are in range to offer a top-two pick to get one of the elite DE’s and it could mean you’re picking twice among a pool of players similar to the top-end of the 2013 draft (if not worse). You could always trade both picks to move up for Kayvon Thibodeaux or Aidan Hutchinson — but that would be a big move.

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Some thoughts on Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder

December 1, 2021 /

Desmond Ridder has enjoyed a successful career at Cincinnati

I don’t like that we’re having to break down quarterback tape again but here we are. With the increasing possibility that this team is going to make major changes in the off-season, we’re duty bound to at least look at what’s out there.

Today it’s Desmond Ridder’s turn to get an extended review.

Firstly, he has great velocity on his throws. When he needs to let it rip he does so effectively. He generates power by planting his feet to drive the football into tight windows and into the right areas on an intermediate and deep range.

Of all the quarterbacks in this class, Ridder makes the prettiest throws to chop up and make into a highlights video. Carson Strong has some ‘wow’ moments too — but Ridder is the one who makes completions that raise an eyebrow. He reads a defense well, throws with anticipation, velocity and placement and if you’re looking for special qualities in that regard — he can be exciting at times.

He had two throws against Notre Dame — one to the left sideline and one right down the seam — that were just perfect. Possibly the two best passes I’ve seen this season.

One area where Ridder really stands out is mobility and movement to extend plays. His footwork is superb. He takes smaller steps but is springy in his footwork, enabling him to glide side-to-side while keeping his eyes downfield. He will keep two hands on the ball and he’s reading the field looking for openings while he’s on the move.

There are various examples on tape where he side-steps to the right, back-pedals to the left, moves back to the right and then throws with accuracy and velocity. He had a tremendous play like this against Eastern Michigan recently from deep inside his own half. He is very difficult to contain, he buys himself time and then he can punish opponents with his arm.

His running ability is an asset. He is a good athlete and can be useful on draws and scrambles. He has a blast of acceleration which is unexpected and he can turn up field to make good gains. You can easily imagine him making some frustrating 3rd and 8 conversions simply by breaking contain and getting just enough with his legs.

I do worry a little bit about his frame. He’s listed at 6-4 and 215lbs but he’s quite lean. I’m not sure how he would take to being hit regularly at the next level, so that may limit his usefulness as a runner. Yet I think it’s a positive and he has the ability to take what is given on the ground.

Ridder does an excellent job attacking the middle of the field. The way he throws to tight ends running the seam is impressive. He’s adept at standing in the pocket and throwing with anticipation to his bigger targets.

There are technical flaws. Unlike Strong, he doesn’t always align his feet and shoulders to the direction the football’s being thrown. When he throws to the left his body can be positioned facing to the right. It means when he uncorks to throw, he has to take a long stride with his left leg, coming across his body to plant and throw. This is wasted motion. At the next level those split seconds can be the difference between a deflection or a sack/fumble. It can be the difference between an open receiver being closed down, or a defensive back reading your body language to anticipate the throw.

Ridder spent considerable time last summer — in his words — to make the lower half of his body work with his upper half. There are still some issues to work through here and it does impact his accuracy. Sometimes these habits are fixable. Sometimes you are what you are and my concern with Ridder is his natural throwing technique will mean that while he’s very capable of sensational, eye-catching throws — he’s also going to have plenty of ‘WTF’ high throws and misses.

You see a steady stream of this on tape. He will throw high when stepping up into the pocket and put too much into a pass. Even on little easy dump-off’s or WR screens he will miss high. It’s frustrating to watch at times and you end up having to consider the two contrasting sides of his game. The beautiful, highlight-reel passes and the absolutely maddening easy misses.

He also has a moderate turnover problem. He’s thrown 28 interceptions in four years at Cincinnati. It’s an average of seven per season. It’s not a major problem but it’s been a consistent feature in his career. You’d like to see gradual improvement where the touchdown numbers rise and the interception numbers come down. For Ridder — he kind of is what he is.

Some of those turnovers are careless, too. He had one against Navy this year where he totally misread the coverage and threw it straight to a defensive back, as if he was the target. In the same game, he almost floated a pass right into the hands of a defender on his own 10-yard for what would’ve been an easy pick-six. The linebacker dropped the pass.

He was pressured early against Indiana this year and started throwing off his back-foot. One throw was off-target, tipped and picked. Another was way off-target and could easily have been another interception.

When you watch him play, I’d say about 20% of his throws every game are inaccurate and frustrating. Another 10-20% are exciting and highly impressive. So this is what you’re ultimately going to get. Someone who is capable of maddening play and sheer brilliance over the course of 60 minutes.

He’s a good athlete with a strong arm. He will take chances, have misses and make errors. Ridder’s effective as a runner.

We have to acknowledge how he has elevated Cincinnati to a new level. You want to see that in college. They’ve been good for some time but in 2021 they’re in the playoff hunt and that needs to be highlighted as a positive. He set a school record for touchdown passes and we’re talking about 136 years of Cincinnati football here. So he has achieved a lot in college. His team are 43-6 in his four years and won Bowl games against Virginia Tech and Boston College. They should’ve beaten Georgia in the Peach Bowl last season.

I don’t rate him as highly as Kellen Mond a year ago and he went in round three. I think that is a fair range for Ridder too — maybe even round four. However, I would rather take a chance on him in the middle rounds, put him with a good coordinator and QB coach and try to develop him — than spend a first round pick reaching for one of the other quarterbacks in this class.

There’s something to work with. The upside and potential is clear. There are technical and accuracy issues that need work to make the most of what he does well.

He’s an intriguing prospect. The Senior Bowl is often a king-maker at the position and Ridder has accepted an invitation to Mobile. A strong week could deliver a major boost to his stock.

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