Month: December 2021 (Page 2 of 3)

I’ve been putting this off for a while.

I’ve been writing this blog since 2008 and I’ve never found it harder to craft a mock draft. A lot of this just feels… wrong.

And a lot of it will be wrong. It’s a mock draft, after all. Yet the distinct lack of obvious first round prospects this year make it even more of a guessing game than usual.

I think testing is going to have an even bigger impact than ever. Players with the potential to test brilliantly at the combine will fly up boards.

I also think we could see multiple first round picks traded for veteran players. I think teams will view 2022 draft stock as more disposable than in previous years because the value simply isn’t there in the first frame.

This mock is an attempt to portray a lot of these scenarios. I haven’t included any trades — there’ll be plenty of time for that down the road.

I’m also publishing this today because on Wednesday I am flying to Lapland and I’m not sure if there’ll be much of an opportunity to write before I return. So I’m hoping this will create a bit of debate for a few days.

A few notes before the mock…

— Increasingly it appears Aidan Hutchinson is trending towards being the #1 pick. He has the physical profile and will test through the roof. He’s had an exceptional season and probably should’ve won the Heisman (I would’ve voted for Hutchinson or Kenny Pickett). Plus it’s Detroit picking first overall — I’m pretty sure keeping him in-state will be seen as a thing internally.

— There are already reports that Houston are hoping to lose their way into the top-two. It appears a consensus is emerging that we’ve been discussing for a while. Hutchinson and Thibodeaux are the two really coveted players in this draft, then there’s a steep drop off.

— I don’t have any quarterbacks graded for round one and I think there’s a decent chance all of them will remain on the board after the first frame. I also appreciate the importance of the position could dictate at least one is taken.

Here’s the mock in list form, with notes below:

#1 Detroit — Aidan Hutchinson (DE, Michigan)
#2 Jacksonville — Kayvon Thibodeaux (DE, Oregon)
#3 Houston — Derek Stingley Jr (CB, LSU)
#4 New York Jets — Evan Neal (G, Alabama)
#5 New York Giants — Trevor Penning (T, Northern Iowa)
#6 New York Giants — David Ojabo (DE, Michigan)
#7 New York Jets — Kyle Hamilton (S, Notre Dame)
#8 Carolina — Bernhard Raimann (T, Central Michigan)
#9 Atlanta — Treylon Burks (WR, Arkansas)
#10 Philadelphia — George Karlaftis (DE, Purdue)
#11 Philadelphia — Jordan Davis (DT, Georgia)
#12 Minnesota — Jalen Catalon (S, Arkansas)
#13 New Orleans — Jameson Williams (WR, Alabama)
#14 Las Vegas — Logan Hall (DL, Houston)
#15 Pittsburgh — Abraham Lucas (T, Washington State)
#16 Denver — Devin Lloyd (LB, Utah)
#17 Cincinnati — Charles Cross (T, Mississippi State)
#18 Cleveland — Drake London (WR, USC)
#19 Washington — Kenny Pickett (QB, Pittsburgh)
#20 Buffalo — Kyler Gordon (CB, Washington)
#21 Philadelphia — Sauce Gardner (CB, Cincinnati)
#22 Miami — Jermaine Johnson (DE, Florida State)
#23 LA Chargers — Jalen Wydermyer (TE, Texas A&M)
#24 Detroit — Garrett Wilson (WR, Ohio State)
#25 Baltimore — Daxton Hill (S, Michigan)
#26 Dallas — Tyler Linderbaum (C, Iowa)
#27 Kansas City — DeMarvin Leal (DL, Texas A&M)
#28 Tampa Bay — Devonte Wyatt (DT, Georgia)
#29 Tennessee — Trey McBride (TE, Colorado State)
#30 Green Bay — John Metchie (WR, Alabama)
#31 New England — Chris Olave (WR, Ohio State)
#32 Arizona — Andrew Booth (CB, Clemson)

Notes on each pick

#1 Detroit — Aidan Hutchinson (DE, Michigan)
He’s reportedly capable of a 4.07 short shuttle which would be elite-level agility for the position. He’s also managed a 36 inch vertical jump at Michigan and a 4.64 forty. He has 14 sacks in 2021 and would be a popular pick in Detroit.

#2 Jacksonville — Kayvon Thibodeaux (DE, Oregon)
Thibodeaux is long, quick and explosive off the edge. He’s a prototype — with seven sacks in 11 games this season barely telling the whole story of how dynamic he is. He ran a 4.30 short shuttle at SPARQ but appears capable of testing even better.

#3 Houston — Derek Stingley Jr (CB, LSU)
He has ideal size but his testing at SPARQ was remarkable. He ran a 4.30 forty, jumped a 42 inch vertical and achieved a sensational 142.74 overall score.

#4 New York Jets — Evan Neal (G, Alabama)
Evan Neal plays left tackle for Alabama but he has a frame that looks ideally suited to guard. He’s incredibly strong and powerful at the POA but might have issues dealing with the speed rush at the next level. He can bench press 475lbs and squat 650lbs.

#5 New York Giants — Trevor Penning (T, Northern Iowa)
Penning squats 625lbs and cleans 385lbs. He’s projected to run a 5.00 forty. He sets the tone up front and the only question mark will be the level of competition he faced at Northern Iowa.

#6 New York Giants — David Ojabo (DE, Michigan)
He has great quickness off the edge, provides a solid counter when engaged and he can threaten with a great get-off and burst. He has 11 sacks in 2021.

#7 New York Jets — Kyle Hamilton (S, Notre Dame)
Despite being listed at 6-4 and 220lbs — he isn’t a thumper. He covers ground superbly, has better than expected range for his size and a nose for the football. Hamilton is reportedly capable of a 42 inch vertical and a 10-8 broad jump.

#8 Carolina — Bernhard Raimann (T, Central Michigan)
He has an ideal left tackle frame and all of the expected testing numbers for a high draft pick — 9-8 broad jump, 1.56 10-yard split, 450lbs bench press.

#9 Atlanta — Treylon Burks (WR, Arkansas)
An exciting combination of great size and speed, he also has freakishly big 10.75 inch hands. Burks has the look of a #1 target at the next level.

#10 Philadelphia — George Karlaftis (DE, Purdue)
He has only five sacks this season in 12 games. Yet he’s 6-4 and 275lbs, he can jump a 10-1 broad and a 37 inch vertical. He’s been timed running a 4.69.

#11 Philadelphia — Jordan Davis (DT, Georgia)
Davis is 6-6 and 340lbs but he will be one of the stars of the combine. He will run quicker than anyone expects and make headlines.

#12 Minnesota — Jalen Catalon (S, Arkansas)
e can play deep safety, he can come up to the LOS and make plays against the run. I can imagine him collecting picks at the next level. He plays a lot like Quandre Diggs.

#13 New Orleans — Jameson Williams (WR, Alabama)
Suddenness and quickness is king at the next level and he has that natural ability to separate downfield and stretch a defense, while also being able to create early separation on shorter routes.

#14 Las Vegas — Logan Hall (DL, Houston)
Exceptional, high-ceiling talent who can play inside/out. He is a 375lbs bencher and manages 365lbs in the clean. He combines that explosive power with great quickness and size.

#15 Pittsburgh — Abraham Lucas (T, Washington State)
Abraham Lucas looks like the most athletic, agile and mobile right tackle to play in college football since Tyron Smith. It shouldn’t be a surprise — he ran a 4.30 short shuttle at SPARQ and a 5.03 forty.

#16 Denver — Devin Lloyd (LB, Utah)
He’s had an incredible 2021 season with four interceptions, 22 TFL’s, eight sacks, six pass breakups.

#17 Cincinnati — Charles Cross (T, Mississippi State)
I thought his tape was a bit so-so and not particularly exciting. Teams will take a chance on anyone who looks the part at this position, however.

#18 Cleveland — Drake London (WR, USC)
He can jump a 38 inch vertical and played basketball as well as football at USC. If he runs well, he could be a first rounder.

#19 Washington — Kenny Pickett (QB, Pittsburgh)
I think Carson Strong is the top draft-eligible QB but a knee injury could push him down the board. Pickett is fun to watch — a gunslinger with plus athleticism. Small hands are a concern.

#20 Buffalo — Kyler Gordon (CB, Washington)
He’s capable of a 42.5 inch vertical and a 3.87 short shuttle. You better believe that’ll give him a shot at round one.

#21 Philadelphia — Sauce Gardner (CB, Cincinnati)
Smooth and sticky cornerback. Testing will be big for Gardner but his tape showed a very polished performer with decent size.

#22 Miami — Jermaine Johnson (DE, Florida State)
He recorded 11.5 sacks, 17.5 TFL’s, 12 quarterback hurries and he returned a fumble for a touchdown. Length, a lean frame, get-off and speed.

#23 LA Chargers — Jalen Wydermyer (TE, Texas A&M)
He is very athletic and well sized, providing the kind of mismatches teams crave in the modern NFL. He can break the seam, get up on linebackers and safeties to exploit opportunities and he can be a red zone threat.

#24 Detroit — Garrett Wilson (WR, Ohio State)
He had a strong 2021 season but the concern with both Wilson and Chris Olave will be whether they can run fast enough at the combine. Speed matters at this position.

#25 Baltimore — Daxton Hill (S, Michigan)
Hill ran a 4.30 forty at SPARQ and a 4.13 short shuttle. He jumped a 44 inch vertical and his overall score was 143.76. His play is coming along — he had two interceptions and 4.5 TFL’s this season.

#26 Dallas — Tyler Linderbaum (C, Iowa)
A player overrated by many but still a top-40 pick. Linderbaum is an undersized brawler who was a skilled wrestler in High School — defeating Tristan Wirfs. He’s extremely agile and has been timed running an outstanding 4.22 short shuttle

#27 Kansas City — DeMarvin Leal (DL, Texas A&M)
Leal is a player you want to love but end up only liking. He has 8.5 sacks this year and he has an intriguing physical profile. He’s 6-4 and 290lbs and plays inside/out.

#28 Tampa Bay — Devonte Wyatt (DT, Georgia)
One of the most underrated players in the class. He has 7.5 TFL’s in 12 games and is capable of running in the 4.8’s while jumping a 9-3 broad and a 31 inch vertical.

#29 Tennessee — Trey McBride (TE, Colorado State)
McBride’s agility testing will determine how early he goes. He loves to block and he’s a YAC machine. He attacks the seam with long-striding acceleration but can also run corner routes and he challenges defenders with a competitive spirit when the ball’s in the air.

#30 Green Bay — John Metchie (WR, Alabama)
Tearing an ACL will be a concern for teams but the talk is many consider him a first round talent. Therefore, teams could hunt for value here.

#31 New England — Chris Olave (WR, Ohio State)
Olave is a really intelligent, skilled receiver. Yet if he runs slower than a 4.4 forty — the simple fact is he’ll stay on the board.

#32 Arizona — Andrew Booth (CB, Clemson)
Cornerback is a premium position and Booth has shown to be a talented, sticky corner that teams tend to try and avoid.

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Last week, Jordan Schultz reported that Russell Wilson would be prepared to waive his no-trade clause in the off-season to join the Broncos, Giants or Saints.

He also referenced a recent Adam Schefter report, claiming the Eagles were also on the list.

Wilson distanced himself from the report when quizzed during a press conference. Yet on Sunday, the NFL’s in-house reporter Ian Rapoport validated Schultz’s claim:

“Schultz, who has ties to Wilson’s camp and is the son of Seattle businessman Howard Schultz, the former Starbucks CEO, reported that Wilson would strongly consider waiving his no-trade clause for the Broncos, Giants and Saints. A source later confirmed the information, while Wilson didn’t deny it.”

So what’s going on here? Why is this being talked about now?

I have a theory.

I’ve long thought Wilson has little desire to leave Seattle. He places a big focus on legacy. Playing for one team for your entire career is special. He has put down roots in the Pacific Northwest. If given the choice, I think he would 100% choose to play many more years in Seattle.

However, it’s also very clear he no longer believes in Pete Carroll’s philosophy. You only have to listen to Greg Olsen to understand what he thinks about it.

I also think he wants and expects a greater say in personnel decisions and has lost faith in the front office to make the right choices to build a contender.

So as much as Wilson prefers to stay in Seattle, he won’t stay at the cost of future success and an opportunity to max out his peak years. He wants to win — and wants to play for a team he believes is giving itself the best chance to succeed.

Further to that, I think the relationship between John Schneider and Mark Rodgers is particularly frosty, creating another issue. I’ve long felt that Wilson would’ve been dealt last off-season if the decision had been left up to Schneider.

Thus — Wilson’s preference might be to stay in Seattle but he’ll only want to do so with major changes at the top.

If he or his people want to nudge ownership in a new direction, you can’t wait until the season is over to do it. By January 10th, the day after the season ends, the Seahawks will need to have known for some time what they’re planning to do.

It’s no good creating media talking points then. It’s too late. Those kinds of conversations have to happen now. If you want to influence decision makers, there’s no time to lose.

It’s the same for any team. Contrary to what many people think, most firing decisions aren’t made on a whim. You’re not ‘waiting to see’ how a couple of games go. It’s about now when you’re finalising future plans for your franchise.

My hunch is that what happened last week, Schultz’s report backed up by Rapoport, is the Wilson camp reminding ownership of his dissatisfaction and preference for change. His press conference also served to let it be known he’d rather stay in Seattle. It might be a bit of a jigsaw to put together — but overall the message is clear. I want to stay but also want change. Make those changes or I’m going to ask to go somewhere else. And if you are moving me on, these are the teams I’ll consider.

People can say what they want about timing with the Seahawks now on a two-game winning streak. The reality is a playoff run is still highly improbable. Seattle has already lost tiebreakers to Washington, Minnesota and New Orleans. The only team ahead of them in the playoff hunt where they hold a tiebreaker is San Francisco — and they’re already two games ahead of the Seahawks, with four games to play.

Further to that, Seattle’s NFC record is 2-6. With the Eagles at 4-4, that’s another tiebreaker they would currently lose if records are equal.

I would suggest if you intend to squeeze into the 7th seed with a 9-8 record you need to have key tiebreakers in your pocket. Seattle doesn’t. They also need to end the season on a six-game winning streak, including wins in LA and Arizona. Given the way they’ve played the Rams over the years, the playoff dream could well be left in tatters within seven days — making upcoming home games against Chicago and Detroit a moot point.

In a fantasy world where everyone puts everything on hold until the improbable playoff run is officially ruled out, you simply give up the best possible opportunity to initiate change or set the table for a proper departure.

Believe it or not — I also think it’s possible to cast half an eye on the future while still being sufficiently focused on performing to a high level on a Sunday. I didn’t see anything against the Texans, or against the Niners, to suggest there’s any kind of distraction here.

It’s just business. And a player of Wilson’s caliber is more than capable of letting his team handle his future, while he focuses purely on the football.

I also think it’s indicative of the secretive nature of what is being discussed and perhaps being prepared in the background. If my theory is correct, I’d suggest Wilson (and therefore everyone else) is probably non-the-wiser as to what Jody Allen and Vulcan are thinking.

What is clear, however, is that significant change of some form is coming. At least one of Carroll, Schneider and Wilson won’t be in Seattle by the start of the 2022 season.

I discussed this further in last night’s instant reaction live stream:

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Seattle won back-to-back games for the first time this season.

Yet it was hard to muster too much enthusiasm for a win against an opponent very much going through a tanking process.

The Seahawks added gloss to the scoreline late on, making what was actually quite a tepid encounter look like a hammering.

The reality is it was quite nip and tuck until the end.

Russell Wilson continues to return to form, that’s a big positive. He wasn’t flawless by any stretch but the disaster-zone performances against Green Bay and Arizona are clearly in the rearview mirror. Rashaad Penny had a really impressive game in a ‘look what could’ve been’ type display. Good for him. I hope he can finish strong and earn a fresh opportunity for 2022.

Seattle kept Houston alive longer than was necessary. It was a six-point game deep into the second-half.

The whole thing felt very up and down until Houston imploded.

On offense — creative runs, motion and Wilson on the move. There were throwbacks to week one in what we thought would be the norm. Yet there was also some frustratingly conservative play-calls, missed opportunities and a lack of killer instinct.

On defense — Darrell Taylor continued to flash as did Al Woods. The unit had success on third down again. They also continue to show total inability to defend screens properly, they give up too many easy conversions and just play, too often, with a bit of a passive nature.

A collection of highlights from the game will be fun to watch because there were enough attractive plays to enjoy over multiple watches. I must confess though — there were long stretches in the game where I had to fight against nodding off.

33-13 doesn’t feel like a fair reflection of what we saw. While I’m happy to accept it, given the way other games have gone this season, it just felt a bit ‘meh’.

I’m sure some of the media and fanbase will begin to talk about a late playoff run. I can’t see this version of the Seahawks going to LA next week and winning. In fact I think it could get quite ugly. And that’s when, officially, the season will be over bar the shouting.

I’m ready to see something else. Some new ideas, a new approach.

In the live stream I will again discuss the lingering elephant in the room. Ian Rapoport validated Jordan Schultz’s Wilson report from earlier in the week. I have a theory on this to discuss, watch the video at the top of the article for more.

I also have to say — given what was eminently possible next off-season, I don’t know why Seattle didn’t take a shot on Kellen Mond or Davis Mills in the draft. I think Mills showed he has talent in this game and generally did about as well as can be expected given the appalling supporting cast he has to work with.

It’s not like the Seahawks are making the most of their Dee Eskridge investment anyway.

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Note: This is a guest post by Curtis Allen and the latest piece in a weekly series. Curtis looks at the Seahawks and their opponents and discusses key factors…

The Seahawks are coming off an exhilarating win against San Francisco and now they are preparing to face a team in Houston that is trending for a top pick in the 2022 draft. Hopes are rising that the Hawks may win back-to-back games for the first time this season.

The Texans have been battered by injury and rocked by losing their best player to a scandal — and the numbers are showing it. They are in the bottom four in the NFL in every major stat (rushing and receiving yards and scoring) on both offense and defense, save for pass defense yards allowed (they are 15th).

They are coming off what might be any NFL team’s worst performance in a game this season — a 31-0 loss to the Colts. They only managed 141 yards on offense, conceded 389 yards and possessed the ball for only 18 minutes.

The Seahawks certainly have a talent advantage but the way they have played this season, a game like this could become a struggle very, very quickly.

This game should be over by halftime. How can they assure that?

Win in the trenches

No doubt, the Texans are a proud team. They will be smarting from a demoralizing loss and will come out of the tunnel with some energy. The Seahawks will have to manage that early in the game, and not just assume their superior talent will convey them to an easy victory.

As with all football fundamentals, it starts up front.

The Texans’ pass rush is better than the Seahawks’. They are attaining about the same pressure rate (21.2% vs Seattle’s 22%) but with significantly less blitzing (87 blitzes vs Seattle’s 131).

Jacob Martin and Jonathan Greenard are good bookend pass-rushers that will cause trouble for the Seahawks given the opportunity.

Watch them working together (along with the defensive backs) in order to keep Kyler Murray contained:

Greenard with ANOTHER two-sack game. pic.twitter.com/qOePmwgqYh

— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) October 24, 2021

Greenard particularly needs to be accounted for. He has eight sacks in 325 snaps this year, making him one of the most efficient pass rushers in the NFL. His 84.3 overall PFF grade this season shows he has a rounded out game and is able to help contain the run game as well.

He wins with power and a great motor. Watch this play from Week Five against the Colts. For some reason, Indy feels comfortable lining up tight end Mo Alie-Cox over him on a pass play. Greenard flattens Alie-Cox to the ground and accelerates to Carson Wentz:

Jon Greenard sacks Carson Wentz, who looks very mobile pic.twitter.com/kAzXAgwtqS

— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) October 17, 2021

And here he is moving 330lb Morgan Moses out of his way and chasing Zach Wilson down for a strip sack:

Jon Greenard strip sack, but it flies out of bounds. pic.twitter.com/J6chZ50sA9

— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) November 28, 2021

He spends most of his time lining up over the right tackle. The Seahawks are vulnerable there, with Brandon Shell limited in practice with injury and Jamarco Jones on Injured Reserve. Jake Curhan may get the start Sunday and that will be a matchup to watch.

We know what Jacob Martin brings to the game — a spark of speed in a rushing role that could disrupt the passing game. Watch him slide right past George Fant and power through a feeble blocking attempt by Ty Johnson to get a key sack of Zach Wilson to hold the Jets to a field goal try:

Jacob Martin sacks Zach Wilson on third-and-goal, Jets have to settle for a FG pic.twitter.com/SzQ3wzOZHa

— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) November 28, 2021

The Seahawks’ tackles will have a job on Sunday. Duane Brown and either Shell, Curhan or Stone Forsyth will need to be on their game in order to keep Russell Wilson clean. If the Seahawks line up a tight end to block, it better be Will Dissly — and they would do well to have someone like Travis Homer ready to chip.

One thing that will help — and this is something we have talked about several times — is Russell Wilson’s pocket sense.

Watch all of those sacks again. On all of them — yes the pass rushers make great plays — but the sacks are entirely preventable if the quarterback makes a decision to throw or scramble more quickly instead of hesitating.

Russell Wilson will need to be decisive. He was sacked four times and lost 50 yards last week against San Francisco. That cannot happen again.

Nobody is going to confuse Jonathan Greenard with Nick Bosa. Yet playing a foe they do not see regularly, the Seahawks do not have the advantage of scheme familiarity that they do with a team like San Francisco. They will need to be sharp.

On defense, they will need to control the line of scrimmage. Again, if there were ever a week for this defensive line to step up and play effectively, this would be it.

How so?

The Texans have very, very little in the way of a running game. Very little.

They have more games this season where they have failed to rush for 50 yards (four) than they have where they rushed for 100 yards (two).

Mark Ingram is still their leading rusher. He has not been a Houston Texan since October 24th.

David Johnson, Rex Burkhead and Philip Lindsay are averaging 2.8 yards per carry as a group. There just is not much in the cupboard.

What about the pass protection?

Houston will still likely be without star tackle Laremy Tunsil, who is still working through his injury. The pass rush should be able to take advantage.

With Tyrod Taylor suffering from a scary wrist injury, Davis Mills will get the start on Sunday.

Mills is one of the NFL’s most-often-sacked quarterbacks. He has been sacked once every 10 pass attempts this year (22 times in only 223 pass attempts).

The defensive backfield can be a big help to the pass rush in this particular game…

Keep Mills from connecting with his first read

Mills has been a real mixed bag for Houston in his rookie year, which is not wholly unexpected given the lack of talent on the roster. It is commendable that he followed up a disastrous game against Buffalo in Week Four (zero touchdowns, four interceptions, a 23 QB rating) with an extremely clean game against New England in Week Five (three touchdowns, zero interceptions, a 141 QB rating).

Let’s take a look Mills’ performance in the Patriots game to see what we can expect of him:

There are definitely some things to like there. He has decisiveness to his throws, an accuracy and finesse, with some real arm strength displayed.

A good chunk of his success here is a function of the quick-passing game plan the Texans installed for this game. It minimized the pass rush and allowed Mills to just have one read. Rarely was Mills called on to improvise or go to a third read early on in the game. Once the Patriots adjusted, Mills struggled and ultimately the Patriots won the game, despite Houston being in control for three full quarters.

Mills has had 2.2 seconds per throw to get the ball out on average this year. That is both a function of poor pass protection and this quick-throw game plan that keeps him upright. Expect the Texans to employ more throws in this manner.

They will do everything they can to generate some offense. Fly sweeps to Brandin Cooks, flea flickers, and trick plays on special teams.

One area the Seahawks will have to key on to avoid letting the Texans get any offensive momentum: passes to the running backs.

The Seahawk defense is the worst in the NFL this year on yardage allowed to running backs in the passing game. They have allowed a whopping 826 yards, nearly 10% more yards than the 31st defense.

Watch the Texans send David Johnson on a route, with the tight end acting as a natural pick that results in an easy touchdown:

Easy touchdown pass to David Johnson. Jags are reeling. pic.twitter.com/OMsUbP2CmZ

— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) September 12, 2021

This is the type of play they could run all day on this Seahawks defense. Jordyn Brooks, Ryan Neal and Bobby Wagner must provide tight coverage in order to allow them to move down the field.

If they can bottle up the run and short passing game, they will be able to rush the quarterback and create all kinds of havoc.

Most importantly, they can keep the Texans’ best player from impacting the game…

Contain Brandin Cooks

Cooks is the only Houston player on offense with a PFF score that is worth mentioning at 72.5. He has been a consistent player in a dark season for the team, producing not too far below his typical levels despite playing with a rotating cast of quarterbacks and little to no run game to speak of.

Watch what happens when the pass rush doesn’t get home and the quarterback has time to find him:

Brandin Cooks burned em, 38-14, the comeback is on. pic.twitter.com/R55vt6kbkl

— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) October 31, 2021

Brandin Cooks deep TD catch, great throw by Taylor, Texans up 14-3 pic.twitter.com/SgnbedRxpZ

— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) November 28, 2021

D.J. Reed, Sydney Jones and Quandre Diggs will have their hands full on Sunday keeping him in check. If they allow him to get loose, this game could turn into a real contest very quickly.

Maintain that killer mentality

Pete Carroll surprised many by calling the most aggressive game of the season.

From allowing a fake punt to be called deep in his own territory:

.@travishomer4 took the fake punt 73 yards and they never even touched him 😎

📺 #SFvsSEA on CBS pic.twitter.com/7JpudOsbLI

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 5, 2021

To actually attempting a deep pass on third and 14 instead of calling the running back draw and punt play:

Throw it up to DK and let him do the rest 💪 #ProBowlVote @dkm14

📺 #SFvsSEA on CBS pic.twitter.com/CH9hCZF7ER

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 5, 2021

You could even argue that this third down throw in the red zone to Tyler Lockett was aggressive given the Seahawks have so often settled for field goals:

Back corner. Too pretty. @DangeRussWilson ➡️ @TDLockett12

📺 #SFvsSEA on CBS pic.twitter.com/6MK4cCnMqA

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 5, 2021

Carroll even tried a long field goal instead of punting and admitted after the game that he has confidence in Jason Meyers from that distance.

Where did this aggressiveness come from all of the sudden? The Seahawks certainly had their backs against the wall, coming off a three game losing streak, and needed a spark. It calls to mind the teams’ play against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week Eight, also when they were coming off a three game losing streak and needed a spark.

There will be a strong temptation to try and control the ball and not take too many chances and let the Texans beat themselves with their hapless play. It is arguable that the Seahawks could gain a world of confidence with a thorough whipping of a lesser opponent. Jumping out to a quick lead and then stepping on the gas and never looking back.

At the very least, a big fourth quarter would give the Seahawks a chance to audition some players for 2022. Dee Eskridge could use some more snaps, as could Colby Parkinson. They could even give Stone Forsythe some snaps to give him a chance to get his feet wet in the NFL.

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Rob Staton & Matt Mikolas discuss the big Seahawks topics.

Join us live from 5pm PST…

Having posted a breakdown of +70 players I think warrant first, second or third round grades, I wanted to focus on 20 specifically who I’ve enjoyed studying.

I’ve not included the likes of Kayvon Thibodeaux, Aidan Hutchinson and Derek Stingley. I could’ve listed more names but wanted to stick to 20 for now.

Jordan Davis (DT, Georgia)
The feeling is that Alabama stymied Georgia in the SEC Championship, opening up a defense that had previously been dominant during the 2021 season. I re-watched the game this week and that certainly wasn’t the case regarding Georgia’s two stud defensive tackles who both excelled. Davis is a unique player. He’s 6-6, 340lbs and absorbed double-teams even against Alabama. Yet despite his size and incredible power to control the POA and drive blockers into the pocket, he has extreme quickness and athleticism to shoot gaps, disengage and explode to the quarterback and chase down ball-carriers. He is a rare talent and only a notch below Vita Vea’s potential when he entered the draft in 2018.

Trevor Penning (T, Northern Iowa)
I think he’s the best left tackle prospect in the draft. Penning plays with violence and aggression and gets after defenders. He is the opposite of passive as a blocker. His initial contact is often a jolting punch that shifts a lineman off the spot and he’ll frequently knock someone out of contain in the running game. He’s a people mover. He’s one of the best ‘finishers’ I’ve watched since starting this blog in 2008. When he connects there’s very little hand-fighting and calling it a day. Penning wants to drive you into the turf. He has an 83.5 inch wingspan and can dunk a basketball too.

Evan Neal (G, Alabama)
A lot of people are projecting Neal as a top-five pick at left tackle. I think he could be tried at left tackle but his natural fit, in my opinion, is moving inside to guard. His frame appears suited to that switch and I think that’s where his skill-set matches up. Neal is a powerhouse. He’s around 350lbs and I don’t want him trying to protect the speed rush off the edge — working against much smaller, quicker defenders. I want him lined up inside 1v1, hammering people off the snap. He’s big, explosive and physical with the potential to be an elite guard.

Bernhard Raimann (T, Central Michigan)
Raimann is a special tackle prospect with all of the physical skills you’d expect from a first round pick. He’s 6-7 and 305lbs and runs a 1.56 10-yard split. He can jump a 33 inch vertical and a 9-8 broad. Raimann shows very athletic footwork and it allows him to recover and counter when things don’t go entirely to plan. He handles the speed rush with a good kick-slide and he’s capable of being a ‘dancing bear’ to seal off the edge. He’s able to bench-press on contact by getting his hands inside to stone speed-to-power rushes. His powerful hands connect and lock-on vs the bull rush and he can plant the anchor against bigger rushers.

Abraham Lucas (T, Washington State)
Watching him control and handle Kayvon Thibodeaux was enough to have me sold but the more I watched the more I liked. I don’t think I’ve seen a right tackle since Tyron Smith look so comfortable operating in space, blocking 1v1 in pass-pro. His footwork to handle stunts is incredible and he reads them well. He doesn’t get too deep in his drop but he’s athletic enough to be able to stick with top speed rushers and contain. So many players are terrified at facing a player like Thibodeaux that they cede so much ground off the snap and invite pressure. They’re playing defense. Lucas is an offensive-minded tackle who backs his own physical profile to win on the front-foot. He ran a 4.30 short shuttle at SPARQ — an incredible time.

Dameon Pierce (RB, Florida)
This is a player I would put a big ring around and bang the table for. His limited role at Florida, which was bizarre, likely keeps him on the board longer than his talent warrants. He is a tone-setting runner and exactly the type of player Seattle’s running game misses when Chris Carson is out with his latest injury. He has ideal size at 5-10 and 215/220lbs. He has the kind of explosive traits you need at the position (37 inch vertical). His cuts are electric. He runs a 4.50 and benches 390lbs. He is a monster who just needs an opportunity to deliver on his immense potential.

David Ojabo (DE, Michigan)
Prototype edge rusher with the initial burst and quickness, length and lean frame (6-5, 250lbs) teams look for. He possess great balance to challenge offensive tackles with speed and then bending at the arc. He’s able to keep his frame clean and explode to the passer. You see evidence of speed-to-power and spin moves — so he’s not a one-dimensional rusher. His motor is good and while it’s certainly helped playing across from Aidan Hutchinson, he’s not succeeded purely from the attention Hutchinson demands. He scored a 106.74 at SPARQ.

Tyler Linderbaum (C, Iowa)
I feel like I’ve been forced to play down Linderbaum this year — but only because draft media keeps elevating him too high. He’s not a top-10 pick, as some are projecting. He deserves to be considered a top-40 pick with the potential to go in round one. He’s slightly undersized (290-295lbs) and we’ll need to see his arm length and explosive testing. There are snaps where he’s pushed back and he could be overwhelmed by bigger linemen. However, he has an impressive wrestling background (beating Tristan Wirfs in High School) and you see that in the way he battles up front. He’s athletic and said to be capable of a 1.55 10-yard split and a 4.22 short shuttle. The obvious comparison is Garrett Bradbury.

Logan Hall (DL, Houston)
One of my favourite players to watch so far and a player capable of emulating Houston team mate (and former SDB interview subject) Payton Turner and going in the first round. He is a typical inside/out threat with a ceiling to be as good as any in the league. How so? It’s his range. He can line up inside and push interior linemen into the quarterback. On another snap he’ll swim into the backfield, showing quickness and agility. He can play off the edge and win with speed or speed-to-power. He has very few limitations. He’s 6-6 and 275lbs and had 13 TFL’s this season. Keep an eye on Hall because he has bags of potential.

Jermaine Johnson (DE, Florida State)
The former Georgia defender transferred to FSU and put on a clinic in 2021. He registered 17.5 TFL’s and 11.5 sacks. He has classic edge size at 6-5 and 262lbs but is a candidate to play SAM snaps as well as feature at outside linebacker or as a 4-3 end. He ran a 4.5 40-yard dash in high school and could go quicker with the right training. His first-step quickness is impressive and he has a repertoire of moves including an effective swim, spin and bull-rush. He’s a former JUCO standout, after being deemed academically ineligible. He then went to Georgia before transferring to Florida State.

Devonte Wyatt (DT, Georgia)
I mentioned earlier that Jordan Davis impressed for Georgia against Alabama, despite the result. Wyatt was equally impressive. He consistently burst into the backfield, created pressure and had an excellent game. He is quickly becoming the forgotten man of this class and deserves to be rated very highly. Reportedly he can run a 4.87 forty and jump 31 inches in the vertical and 9-3 in the broad. He’s well sized (6-3, 315lbs) and will be a disruptive interior force at the next level.

Carson Strong (QB, Nevada)
Strong is a superb anticipation thrower to the sideline. His speed-outs are nearly always thrown with timing and velocity. He has excellent arm strength and the ability to go through progressions and fit passes into tight windows at an elite college level. Strong’s technique is solid and his shoulder is often aligned to the target. Once he makes his decision to throw there’s no wasted movement. He has a superb, compact delivery. His whip-like release generates velocity. The ball pops out of his hand and he has a very smooth throwing motion. The problems are two-fold with Strong. One, he has a knee issue that will need to be thoroughly investigated. Two, he is a statue in the pocket. Thus, he takes an incredible number of sacks and has very little ability to improvise or extend plays.

Kenny Pickett (QB, Pittsburgh)
Pickett has developed into a gun-slinging dynamo with underrated athleticism that didn’t receive enough attention until his famous ‘fake-slide’ touchdown run in the ACC Championship game. He’s adept at subtle pocket-movement to buy time and deliver throws. He can make plays downfield, he’s good throwing on the run and he’s similar to Joe Burrow in that while he’s not an amazing runner — he’s capable of making some gains when the play breaks down. There are issues, though. His hand size is said to be 8 1/2 inches which is tiny — and he throws wearing gloves. He’s also too hesitant at times in the pocket, rejecting open plays as called to take off and extend. He’s fun to watch, though. He ran a 4.25 short shuttle at SPARQ and jumped a 35 inch vertical. He’s an athlete.

Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)
Ridder delivers ‘wow’ moments as a passer, is an excellent athlete and has driven Cincinnati into the college football playoffs against the odds. However, he’s also frustratingly inconsistent and capable of ‘WTF’ moments to go with the magic. He has a skinny frame which could be a problem with the pro-punishment forthcoming. However — he just has X-factor talent that will give him a shot to make it in the NFL. The inconsistency probably keeps him on the board until rounds two or three but someone will take a chance and they could be rewarded spectacularly.

Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA)
Pass protection is an underrated quality among running backs. Several, including Alabama’s admittedly skilful and explosive Brian Robinson, aren’t very good at it. Zach Charbonnet is the best I’ve seen so far. It’s an added quality that should enable him to start quickly at the next level. He’s a former four-star recruit for Michigan who transferred to UCLA. He’s 6-1 and 220lbs and combines explosive running ability and the ability to run through contact with agility and quickness. He’s a capable receiver. Assuming he’s a mid-round pick, he provides an opportunity to get a starting, productive running back at value.

Phidarian Mathis (DT, Alabama)
He doesn’t have the same level of upside as Devonte Wyatt but he’s an extremely active, busy defensive tackle who plays with the kind of physicality you’d expect from an Alabama lineman. His testing numbers could be a concern. He ran a 5.38 forty at SPARQ and only managed a 24 inch vertical. He’s added over 30lbs since High School and seems to have upped his game. This year he has eight sacks and 10 TFL’s. He’s 6-4 and 320lbs with an 84 inch wingspan. Whether it’s gap control or shooting into the backfield, he has an intriguing skillset and looks ready to go to war at the next level.

Trey McBride (TE, Colorado State)
I’m not sure if tight end will end up being a ‘need’ for Seattle in 2022 but it’s the deepest position in the class so it’s worth tapping into. McBride will need to show off his agility testing to warrant a top-40 grade. The short shuttle and three cone are very important at TE. His YAC ability is seriously impressive — as he drives through contact and finishes runs. There’s no doubt about his willingness to block. He’s not the biggest at 6-4 and 260lbs but he gives everything at the LOS. His footwork enables a strong base, he keeps his feet moving to drive on contact and there are flashes of violence where he buries opponents into the turf, playing until the whistle. He’s the type of player you can build around.

Matt Bedford (T, Indiana)
Some are slating him to switch inside to guard but I thought he looked really good at right tackle. He has tackle size (6-6, 310lbs) and does a terrific job blocking with power. His lower and upper body work together and he’s in control — avoiding over-extending. He puts himself in a position to engage and work defenders. He’s a mauler who can drive off the snap and be a force in the running game, while holding his own in pass protection. The Seahawks are probably going to be in the market for a right tackle this off-season and depending on how he tests, Bedford is a terrific day-two option.

Jake Ferguson (TE, Wisconsin)
We’ve been talking about Ferguson for three years and it’s never truly come together for him at Wisconsin. There have been flashes in the passing game but frustratingly they’ve never been able to feature him in a way his talent suggested was possible. He’s a good blocker and has the ability to operate as a plus, mobile pass-catcher — with dynamic red zone potential. His ball skills are strong and if his lack of college production sends him down the board, he could be a terrific value pick. As noted earlier, agility testing is huge at tight end. At SPARQ, Ferguson ran a 4.15 short shuttle.

Derrick Deese Jr (TE, San Jose State)
I’m a huge fan of Deese, while admitting his fit will be a tough one to workout for the next level. He’s about 235-240lbs and if you want him to line up and grind things out as a blocker, there are better options in this class. Neither is he very likely to run a 4.50 at the combine and blow everyone away with his speed. Yet when you watch the tape — he’s just such a reliable catcher. He shows strong hands, excellent ball-tracking, body-control and the ability to position himself to get a jump on defenders. He’s physical enough and competitive. I think he could be one of those players who is effective and works out a role at the next level.

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A lot of people have discussed the prospect of trading Russell Wilson to rebuild Seattle’s roster. It’s a conversation worth having but too often the true reality of what it means is overlooked.

Wilson’s list of prospective destinations earlier this year included New Orleans, Dallas, Chicago and Las Vegas.

The Cowboys have since signed Dak Prescott to a huge extension, ruling them out.

The situation with the Raiders has changed significantly, with a chaotic last few weeks sending Las Vegas into an unknown future where replacing Derek Carr is the least of their worries.

Chicago traded their 2022 first round pick to move up and select Justin Fields. So they’re out.

It leaves the New Orleans Saints as the one clear option of the original four.

Adam Schefter appeared on Philadelphia radio recently and stated Wilson would waive his no-trade clause to join the Eagles. In 2019, prior to signing his new contract, there was also plenty of talk in the media (including from those with connections to the Wilson camp) that he would be interested in the Giants.

By firing offensive coordinator Jason Garrett recently — and with GM Dave Gettleman on the way out — major changes are on the cards in New York.

I’m going to add three other teams into the mix.

Mike Tomlin has already stated he has little interest in trying to move forward with a rookie after Ben Roethlisberger retires. The Steelers appear primed to enter the market for a veteran signal caller.

The Broncos are also positioning themselves to make a move — likely coinciding with Vic Fangio’s departure as Head Coach, with an offensive minded replacement installed.

David Tepper, the Carolina owner, is desperate to find an answer at quarterback. If he misses out on Deshaun Watson — seemingly his top target — he could turn to Wilson.

So this is a somewhat realistic list of potential trade partners:

New Orleans
Philadelphia
New York Giants
Pittsburgh
Denver
Carolina

It’s plausible others could be added but I think we can rule out the Lions, Jets and Texans. I suspect Miami will either stand by Tua Tagovailoa or trade for Deshaun Watson.

Now let’s look at the draft stock in the first three rounds for each team on the list of potential suitors, as the draft order stands today:

New Orleans — #10, #42, #98, #99

Philadelphia — #12, #13, #17, #45, #76

New York Giants — #6, #7, #38, #69, #77

Pittsburgh — #18, #50, #82

Denver — #14, #48, #56, #79, #88

Carolina — #9

Right off the bat, we can rule out the Panthers. They simply don’t have the stock to make this happen and would need to be willing to trade players to prop up the limited 2022 returns.

Knowing the Seahawks as we do, they might be willing to tempt Seattle by dangling Christian McCaffrey and three first round picks. The problem is, Carolina would wipe out their resources for the next three years to build around Wilson. Plus McCaffrey has spent the last two years injured, so his value on the field would be difficult to justify based on the cap hits remaining on his contract.

With the Saints and Steelers, they too would only be able to offer modest returns in 2022. They would be expected to add their first round picks in 2023 and 2024 as part of any deal. They might be prepared to do that, as both teams are very much aiming to compete now. The Saints in particular could live through not having a first round pick until 2025 because they have a generally strong roster and have shown a degree of skill in manipulating their cap space.

For the Seahawks though, it’s not a very attractive prospect is it? They’d save cap space in 2022 but would need to replace Wilson. Neither the Saints or Steelers have a replacement quarterback to offer in return as a stop-gap. With Pittsburgh, the Seahawks would be getting only a pick in the second half of round one. New Orleans’ at #10 is more attractive but it’s nowhere near high enough to get at the limited pool of blue-chippers in this class.

This is why I think Sean Payton might fancy a change of scenery next year. It’s potentially easier for him to go to a team with a quarterback, than it is to acquire one for the Saints.

The Eagles and Giants are far better placed to make a move with their multiple high picks this year. With this looking like a down year in the draft, they can afford some short term pain without blowing up their resources until 2025. Swapping picks in 2022 for a big name quarterback carries some appeal.

However, there’s also something else to consider.

Philadelphia’s picks become less attractive with every passing week. They are winning football games and so are the Dolphins and Colts. Instead of having three selections in the top-10, those picks are currently #12, #13 and #17 (and rising).

This would still enable you to control the middle section of round one and you can make a case for players who might go in that range. Jordan Davis for example — or one of Trevor Penning, Bernhard Raimann or Abraham Lucas if they last that far.

Yet without the ability to draft a player with the potential to be a true game-changer, it’s hard to imagine trading away a franchise quarterback and not getting at least one elite-level prospect in return.

Sure, you might be able to pair picks #12 and #13 together and tempt one of the top-two to trade down. But why would the Lions or Texans want to take themselves out of range for Kayvon Thibodeaux and Aidan Hutchinson? Or Derek Stingley?

Having picks #12, #13 and #17 might be a nice thought but you’d be picking in what I’d describe as the worst section of the 2022 draft. You basically have a small group of top-level prospects then the players going between #8-50 might have very similar grades.

I hate to say it but the chances of landing another Germain Ifedi, L.J. Collier or Jordyn Brooks with those picks is realistic. What you really need is someone who gets on the field and makes an immediate impact. You need someone who can be top-five at his position. Think Nick Bosa or Quenton Nelson. Otherwise, why trade Wilson?

The Giants picks are a bit earlier in the first round (#6 and #7) and they could throw in an early second rounder (#38) and perhaps another pick in 2023. John Mara, the Giants owner, is under severe pressure to turn around his floundering franchise. A bold move for Russell Wilson would likely win round the fans, at least temporarily.

You still face similar problems though. Who are you taking at #6 and #7? The objective needs to be to get quality players, not simply address perceived needs.

An argument can’t be ‘just draft an offensive lineman and a defensive lineman’. If you whiff on these picks and Wilson enjoys a new lease of life in New York, it’ll be a disaster for Seattle.

Swapping Wilson for, say, Aidan Hutchinson and then one of Evan Neal or Trevor Penning, is an argument that carries some weight. You’d still need to find an answer at quarterback but you’d be, at that point, embracing a long, potentially painful rebuild. Two players of that caliber would be a good start.

Simply selecting from whatever’s left won’t cut it. A Wilson trade has to be the launch pad for a new era, not simply an opportunity to generate some fun chatter during the combine.

The rumoured/touted deal with Cleveland in 2018 would’ve given Seattle picks #1 and #4 in the draft. That’s the kind of return you’d need in this class to set yourself up in year one of a major rebuild. It’s hard to build a case for life after Wilson, if you can’t get anywhere near the top eligible players.

This is what ownership has to be aware of. Embracing a future without Wilson needs to be fully understood. Just as life without Pete Carroll would equally need to be studied and evaluated. Who’s out there? Who wants the job?

Having draft stock is fine but eventually those picks have to become quality players. Especially if you’re entering a world with no franchise quarterback on the roster.

They should already know what direction they’re going. These discussions should’ve already taken place. The next month should be about putting your ducks in a row, ready to act at the seasons end. Let’s hope this is the case.

Otherwise you end up making desperate, ill-timed moves. Such as the Jamal Adams trade.

That deal, which is a fireable offence in itself, could cost this team a higher pick than any they’ll get from a Wilson suitor.

And with it announced today that Adams will miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury, the whole debacle just gets worse and worse. A trade that looked horrible from the minute it was announced continues to dog this franchise.

This blog made a strong case for dealing Adams last off-season, even if it meant taking a severe hit in trade compensation. Seattle’s first error was to make the trade. The second was to double down — keeping Adams and then paying him a huge contract.

He ends the season with a 60.1 PFF grade.

Here’s his season breakdown:

Colts — 70.7
Titans — 63.6
Vikings — 63.6
49ers — 49.4
Rams — 36.6
Steelers — 62.4
Saints — 52.2
Jaguars — 75.2
Packers — 79.6
Cardinals — 44.5
Washington — 75.9
49ers — 28.9

Four good games.

It’ll cost the Seahawks $28.4m to move on in the off-season, per Over the Cap. Thankfully, the year after, a window opens to ship him out.

The Adams trade is the headline act of a disastrous rebuild since 2018. A win against San Francisco can’t mask that. Seattle’s ownership has to be ruthless, bold, ambitious and prepared for what is next. And it can’t be the status quo.

Edit —- since publishing this article, the following report has emerged.

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There are going to be two parts to this article. Firstly, I’m going to separate the 2022 draft prospects I have studied by grade. Then I’m going to analyse what this class means for the Seahawks and their potential future.

Grading the 2022 draft

These grades will change and adjust following the Senior Bowl and combine.

Here are some general thoughts on the class before I get started:

1. There is depth and value to be had in the middle rounds but I can’t recall a draft where there were so few obvious players deserving of a top-15 grade.

2. The Senior Bowl and combine is going to have a bigger impact than ever. With so little clarity on who deserves to be a first round pick this year, the week in Mobile and testing in Indianapolis will be a king maker.

3. We may see a record low number of players given legit first round grades. Expect this to be a draft where the player taken at #12 might have a similar grade to the player going at #50.

Legit top-10 picks (3)

Kayvon Thibodeaux (DE, Oregon)
Aidan Hutchinson (DE, Michigan)
Derek Stingley Jr (CB, LSU)

These three players arguably would warrant a top-10 pick in most drafts. They combine college production with superb athleticism and upside.

Thibodeaux is long, quick and explosive off the edge. He’s a prototype — with seven sacks in 11 games this season barely telling the whole story of how dynamic he is. He ran a 4.30 short shuttle at SPARQ but appears capable of testing even better — combining balance, lean, change of direction and acceleration.

Hutchinson has been a terror for a long time at Michigan with a relentless, rounded game. He’s reportedly capable of a 4.07 short shuttle which would be elite-level agility for the position. He’s also managed a 36 inch vertical jump at Michigan and a 4.64 forty. He has 14 sacks for the season and will compete with Thibodeaux to be the first player taken.

Derek Stingley has battled injuries recently but he exploded onto the scene as a freshman during LSU’s Championship run. He has ideal size but his testing at SPARQ was remarkable. He ran a 4.30 forty, jumped a 42 inch vertical and achieved a sensational 142.74 overall score. Teams will want to dig deep on some perceived minor character concerns but he is a blue-chip talent at a premium position.

Likely first round prospects (7)

Kyle Hamilton (S, Notre Dame)
Jordan Davis (DT, Georgia)
Trevor Penning (T, Northern Iowa)
Evan Neal (G, Alabama)
Bernhard Raimann (T, Central Michigan)
Abraham Lucas (T, Washington State)
David Ojabo (DE, Michigan)

This group are a tier below the ‘big three’. In other drafts they might struggle to justify going in the top-15. However, due to the limited top-end talent in this draft, they could all find themselves elevated as high as the top-10.

Kyle Hamilton is a gliding, silky smooth safety. Despite being listed at 6-4 and 220lbs — he isn’t a thumper. He covers ground superbly, has better than expected range for his size and a nose for the football. Hamilton is reportedly capable of a 42 inch vertical and a 10-8 broad jump.

Jordan Davis is 6-6 and 340lbs but he will be one of the stars of the combine. He will run quicker than anyone expects and make headlines. He is a classic nose-tackle who absorbs blocks and controls the interior yet he’s equally capable of shooting gaps and impacting the passing game. He’s not as good as Vita Vea but he’s not miles behind.

Trevor Penning is an outstanding left tackle who doesn’t just pass and run block well — he’ll demolish you by judo-tossing you to the turf. Penning squats 625lbs and cleans 385lbs. He’s projected to run a 5.00 forty. He sets the tone up front and the only question mark will be the level of competition he faced at Northern Iowa.

Evan Neal plays left tackle for Alabama but he has a frame that looks ideally suited to guard. He’s incredibly strong and powerful at the POA but might have issues dealing with the speed rush at the next level. He can bench press 475lbs and squat 650lbs. There’s no reason not to try him at left tackle first — but he just looks tailor made to switch inside and be a terrific interior lineman.

Bernhard Raimann is originally from Austria. He has an ideal left tackle frame and all of the expected testing numbers for a high draft pick — 9-8 broad jump, 1.56 10-yard split, 450lbs bench press. Penning, Raimann and the next name on the list all delivered ‘wow’ moments on tape. They play with attitude and a high level of athleticism.

Abraham Lucas looks like the most athletic, agile and mobile right tackle to play in college football since Tyron Smith. It shouldn’t be a surprise — he ran a 4.30 short shuttle at SPARQ and a 5.03 forty. He can handle 1v1’s off the edge and looks like a candidate to switch over to left tackle.

David Ojabo has had a sensational season, combining with Aidan Hutchinson to help guide Michigan to the Big-10 title. He has great quickness off the edge, provides a solid counter when engaged and he can threaten with a great get-off and burst. The question throughout the process will be how much Ojabo and Hutchinson benefitted each other. For Ojabo — can he be ‘the guy’?

Potential top-40 picks (15)

Logan Hall (DL, Houston)
Daxton Hill (S, Michigan)
Jalen Catalon (S, Arkansas)
Jameson Williams (WR, Alabama)
George Karlaftis (DE, Purdue)
Tyler Linderbaum (C, Iowa)
Jermaine Johnson (DE Florida State)
Treylon Burks (WR, Arkansas)
Jalen Wydermyer (TE, Texas A&M)
Trey McBride (TE, Colorado State)
DeMarvin Leal (DL, Texas A&M)
Bryan Cook (S, Cincinnati)
Devin Lloyd (LB, Utah)
Drake London (WR, USC)
Devonte Wyatt (DT, Georgia)

This group will be a mix. Some of these players will be first rounders. Some will likely be available later and provide good value.

I was very close to including Logan Hall in the second tier. His ability to win with power or speed is exciting. There are series’ in games where he takes over. You can line him up inside and he can push lineman back into the pocket to disrupt the run or pass. He can kick outside and work off the edge. I really like him.

Daxton Hill has the potential to be special. He ran a 4.30 forty at SPARQ and a 4.13 short shuttle. He jumped a 44 inch vertical (!!!). His overall score was 143.76. His play is coming along — he had two interceptions and 4.5 TFL’s this season. He has star potential and just needs the right guidance.

Jalen Catalon has missed time with injury but when he was on the field for Arkansas he was a dynamic playmaker. He can play deep safety, he can come up to the LOS and make plays against the run. I can imagine him collecting picks at the next level. He plays a lot like Quandre Diggs.

Jameson Williams is the top receiver in this draft. Suddenness and quickness is king at the next level and he has that natural ability to separate downfield and stretch a defense, while also being able to create early separation on shorter routes. He has 1445 yards and 17 total touchdowns this year.

I’m torn on George Karlaftis. There are flashes on tape where he wins off the edge with great quickness and you see speed-to-power too. Yet he drifts in and out of games and his production is extremely average. He has only five sacks this season in 12 games. Yet he’s 6-4 and 275lbs, he can jump a 10-1 broad and a 37 inch vertical. He’s been timed running a 4.69. Those numbers get him into round one comfortably.

Tyler Linderbaum is a very good prospect — he’s just not as good as some of the people on the internet are suggesting. He’s not a top-10 pick and there are examples on tape where he can be knocked back by power and he’s undersized (approx 295lbs). Yet he’s extremely agile and has been timed running an outstanding 4.22 short shuttle. He’s also a top wrestler and even beat Tristan Wirfs in a key High-School match.

Jermaine Johnson transferred from Georgia to Florida State and looked every bit a NFL EDGE. He recorded 11.5 sacks, 17.5 TFL’s, 12 quarterback hurries and he returned a fumble for a touchdown. Length, a lean frame, get-off and speed.

Treylon Burks is a bit of a freak of nature. He has 10.75 inch hands. He’s a bigger receiver (6-3, 225lbs) but he plays smaller than that. He can burn-off defenders on downfield routes and he does a tremendous job tracking the football, contorting his body and making high-pointed catches. How he runs at the combine will determine how early he goes.

Jalen Wydermyer had a surprisingly quiet start to the season but then exploded to help Texas A&M defeat Alabama. He is very athletic and well sized, providing the kind of mismatches teams crave in the modern NFL. He can break the seam, get up on linebackers and safeties to exploit opportunities and he can be a red zone threat.

Trey McBride’s agility testing will determine how early he goes because everything on tape is superb. He loves to block and he’s good at it. He’s a YAC machine. He attacks the seam with long-striding acceleration but can also run corner routes and he challenges defenders with a competitive spirit when the ball’s in the air. He’s a sure-handed and reliable catcher even in traffic.

DeMarvin Leal is a player you want to love but end up only liking. He has 8.5 sacks this year and he has an intriguing physical profile. He’s 6-4 and 290lbs and plays inside/out. When he kicks inside he can be forceful and slip gaps to break into the backfield. But he’s inconsistent. You’re always left wanting more.

I loved watching Bryan Cook. He’s an animal. His hard hitting, great instincts and ability to play either as a big nickel or at strong safety make him a player to covet. Testing will be big for him but there’s a lot to like here, including his size (6-1, 210lbs).

Devin Lloyd is slightly undersized (235lbs) but that’s the modern game. His frame lacks definition and he could maybe add a bit of size without impacting his game. However — he is just a pure playmaker. Four interceptions, 22 TFL’s, eight sacks, six pass breakups. He’s had an incredible 2021 season.

Drake London has missed time through injury but when he was healthy, he made a real impression as a bigger receiver who can dominate defenders with his size and ball-tracking. He can jump a 38 inch vertical and played basketball as well as football at USC. If he runs well, he could be a first rounder. It won’t be a surprise if he lasts into round two and provides tremendous value for someone.

Jordan Davis has received a lot of attention at Georgia (and rightly so) but Devonte Wyatt is the forgotten man. He has 7.5 TFL’s in 12 games and is capable of running in the 4.8’s while jumping a 9-3 broad and a 31 inch vertical. He can shoot gaps but at 6-3 and 315lbs he can be on the field for any down/distance.

Potential second rounders (22)

Andrew Booth (CB, Clemson)
Sauce Gardner (CB, Cincinnati)
Ikem Ekonwu (G, NC State)
Charles Cross (T, Mississippi State)
Trent McDuffie (CB, Washington)
Kyler Gordon (CB, Washington)
Carson Strong (QB, Nevada)
Kenny Pickett (QB, Pittsburgh)
Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)
Drake Jackson (DE, USC)
Channing Tindall (LB, Georgia)
Derrick Deese Jr (TE, San Jose State)
Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA)
Dameon Pierce (RB, Florida)
Kenneth Walker (RB, Michigan State)
Chris Olave (WR, Ohio State)
Garrett Wilson (WR, Ohio State)
Rasheed Walker (T, Penn State)
Phidarian Mathis (DT, Alabama)
Kingsley Enagbare (DE, South Carolina)
Cameron Thomas (DE, San Diego State)
Brian Asamoah (LB, Oklahoma)
Nakobe Dean (LB, Georgia)

Some of these players, in my opinion, are overrated by draft media. They may well find their way into round one due to the class but their natural home would be day two. That’s the pre-combine grade I’ve given them.

Some highlights from this group…

— Carson Strong is the most talented quarterback in terms of mechanics, arm strength and general talent. However, there are serious concerns about a long-standing knee issue that has lingered since High School. Kenny Pickett has, reportedly, 8 1/4 inch hands. He throws in gloves. He’s a talented gunslinger and he showed at the weekend he’s more athletic than people realise. That hand size though. Desmond Ridder might end up providing the best combination of value and talent. He has delivered ‘wow’ throws this season, can create and extend plays with his legs and has elevated Cincinnati to a new level.

— You won’t see many draft analysts putting Dameon Pierce in round two. However, he has ideal size (5-10, 215-220lbs), he’s explosive (37 inch vertical) he can run (4.50 forty) and he is an absolute BAMF. The Seahawks badly need a tone-setter like this. Florida didn’t use him anywhere near enough. He won’t go this early but he’ll provide tremendous value later on for a smart team. Pierce is my RB2 behind only Zach Charbonnet — a complete running back who drives through contact, catches the ball nicely and is better in pass pro than any other back I’ve seen this year.

— Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are lower than most other website have them listed for one reason only — I need to see them run. I am not convinced either will run as well as some think. Anyone running slower than a 4.50 runs the risk of dropping down the board.

— Not enough people talk about Channing Tindall. He flies around the field, hits like a sledgehammer and has a big future in the NFL. Likewise Derrick Deese is a catching machine at San Diego State with good size. He doesn’t get anywhere near enough attention.

— A lot of people love Charles Cross and Ikem Ekonwu. I was a bit underwhelmed watching Cross. He looks the part but didn’t excite me. Eknowu might be playing tackle but he’s a pure guard. I like his physical playing style and like a lot of NC State linemen (OL and DL) he’ll test well. I just think this range suits him and he’s being elevated because people are struggling to fill out their mocks.

Potential third rounders (26)

Kaiir Elam (CB, Florida)
Matt Bedford (T, Indiana)
Greg Dulcich (TE, UCLA)
David Bell (WR, Purdue)
Jahan Dotson (WR, Penn State)
Jake Ferguson (TE, Wisconsin)
Brian Robinson (RB, Alabama)
Kenyon Green (G, Texas A&M)
Darian Kinnard (T, Kentucky)
Sean Rhyan (G, UCLA)
Matt Corrall (QB, Ole Miss)
Rachaad White (RB, Arizona State)
Jeremy Ruckert (TE, Ohio State)
Sam LaPorta (TE, Iowa)
John Metchie (WR, Alabama)
Haskell Garrett (DT, Ohio State)
Travon Walker (DE, Georgia)
Alex Forsyth (C, Oregon)
Jaquan Brisker (S, Penn State)
Nicholas Petit-Frere (T, Ohio State)
Christian Harris (LB, Alabama)
Roger McCreary (CB, Auburn)
Nate Landman (LB, Colorado)
Jerome Ford (RB, Cincinnati)
Breece Hall (RB, Iowa State)
Josh Vann (WR, South Carolina)

This is a group mixed with some of the more overrated members of this draft class and a collection of players where testing will have a big influence on their stock.

Some highlights from this group…

— Kaair Elam and Kenyon Green are regularly mocked early in round one but I just don’t see it. Elam takes too many chances and looks more of a great athlete than a competent cornerback. With Green, I feel like I’m watching a different player to everyone else. At right guard he was… fine. But not at the level Damien Lewis showed at LSU. Some people are projecting him in the top-10 and that is mind-blowing to me. He’s not a dominant physical talent, he doesn’t have great feet or agility.

— Matt Bedford played right tackle for Indiana and I think he’s very much a player to keep an eye on. People project him to guard but I think he has the footwork, length and agility to make it work at tackle. Greg Dulcich is a highly talented tight end with major upside.

— One or two big names fall into this range due to physical issues. Brian Robinson at Alabama is high-cut in his frame. Roger McCreary has short arms. There are question marks about Josh Vann’s speed. All of the tight ends are good players but they have to show they can test well in the key areas (agility — short shuttle, three cone).

— Matt Corrall is a difficult one for me. He’s 6-0 and 200lbs and playing in a spread system that makes life as easy as possible for him. He does flash arm talent but his mistakes, when they happen, are glaring. I fear he’ll end up like a lot of the old Oklahoma State quarterbacks — hyped up in college, nondescript at the next level.

What does all this mean for the Seahawks?

There are three scenarios — a future with or without Russell Wilson, plus a situation where Wilson is replaced with a big name veteran.

The future with Wilson makes a lot of this article moot, short of finding value later on. They won’t acquire extra first round stock without making a different big trade (eg — D.K. Metcalf). They would have some money to spend but a lot of holes to fill — including both tackle spots.

It’s impossible to justify Bobby Wagner’s $20m salary in 2022. They should make a difficult but necessary decision to shift that investment to the lines — making a big push for someone such as Terron Armstead or a proven quality pass rusher.

If you’re going to spend a first round pick in 2020 on a player who played middle linebacker in college, you might as well start him there and add a cheaper WILL.

Such a scenario would likely see big changes in terms of coaching and possibly the front office. I recently wrote that this would be a model similar to the one devised by Green Bay when they moved on from Mike McCarthy. Or perhaps the Seahawks could make a bold move to pair Wilson with Sean Payton— only in Seattle, rather than New Orleans.

The second scenario is Wilson departs via trade and the Seahawks acquire major draft stock — potentially two top-10 picks and another high pick in 2023 from one of the Giants or Eagles.

If they went down this road, it would be a ground-zero rebuild. You might as well see what else you can get for players such as Metcalf. Paying a receiver between $20-30m a year might be viable given the reduced cost at other positions (particularly quarterback) but it’d arguably be a waste of money if you spend the next three years chasing your tail looking for a new QB.

In this situation, it’s tempting to want to fix every problem immediately. That’s not possible. There should be a plan formed to work on specific areas year-by-year — meshing what is available in the draft with priority planning.

The first priority should be to improve the trenches. That would be possible here.

One option would be to hope to be in a position to draft Evan Neal early, either to play left tackle or, his better position in my opinion, left guard. I don’t think Tyler Linderbaum is going to go as early as many people think. You could, potentially, trade back into the late first using your second rounder to select him.

That could create a situation where you have a young interior core and a foundation to build from. Perhaps Duane Brown could be retained to offer veteran leadership, with your other first rounder used on one of these impressive tackles (Trevor Penning, Bernhard Raimann or Abraham Lucas — although Penning could easily be the first lineman off the board).

That would establish an offensive line that is highly athletic, tough and plays with a brutality the Seahawks currently lack. Add a good running back in the middle rounds (Charbonnet? Pierce?) and you’d be creating the foundation to run the ball with greater consistency, if nothing else.

The thing is, I get the sense the current Seahawks regime prefer veteran linemen. They’ve certainly moved towards that in recent years. Installing three rookies into your O-line could be a recipe for disaster and could impact future careers if rookie seasons leave scars.

If there was an opportunity to select either Kayvon Thibodeaux or Aidan Hutchinson it should be taken. You could even build a case for trading up for one of them. Yet as they’re likely the #1 and #2 picks — they probably won’t be in reach, given the Lions and Texans (two places Wilson won’t go anywhere near) are slated to ‘earn’ the first two picks.

If the focus was to go D-line early, there are options beyond these two. Jordan Davis could anchor the line but the Seahawks have traditionally gone cheap up front (and had a degree of success adding bigger defensive tackles at a tiny cost). Logan Hall is an incredibly exciting player. David Ojabo playing across from Darrell Taylor would challenge opposing tackles.

You could also mix and match. A first rounder on both lines, complemented by some bold free agent moves with the extra cap space created. Either way — fix the trenches and deliver a consistent running game. That’s your starting point.

This would be a similar situation to the one in New England. They spent brilliantly in free agency, splashing out on Matt Judon who has 11.5 sacks. They’ve done a good job complementing draft picks with veteran additions. They also found a quarterback they can build around. Of course, things are always easier when you have Bill Belichick, ably supported by Josh McDaniels.

The final scenario would see the Seahawks trade Wilson and replace him with another veteran. Jason La Canfora speculated Seattle might have interest in Aaron Rodgers, due to John Schneider’s connections in Green Bay. It’s fanciful but an option.

Rodgers clearly remains a genius on the field and shows no signs of slowing down. However, his price tag would likely match Wilson’s. He’s just turned 38, so it’s an extreme short-term move.

That said, you could still move Wagner to create cap space to shift investment to your lines. And Rodgers would likely enjoy throwing to the weapons in Seattle.

If Pete Carroll departs — I still think he will after this season — and Schneider picks, say, Nathaniel Hackett the Green Bay offensive coordinator to replace him — that could set the table for a wild quarterback double deal, where Wilson is dealt to someone like the Saints, Giants, Eagles or Broncos before the Seahawks strike a deal with the Packers.

There’s a lot to digest here and we’ll flesh out these scenarios more in the coming weeks. The only certainty, though, is we’re less than a month away from the end of the season. And that’s when change of some form will occur and a new era of Seahawks football — one way or another — will begin.

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Join Rob & Robbie now to have a good laugh at the 49ers…

Hi all — I am working on BBC national radio again tonight for Pittsburgh vs Baltimore so won’t be able to dedicate my time to the Niners game. There will still be a post-game live stream but there won’t be an immediate ‘instant reaction’ blog post.