Stop me if you’ve heard this already — but I’m ready and prepared for a tough season. You’ve just got to embrace it.
2022 is about college football. It’s about quarterbacks. It’s about getting to the end of the NFL year and treating it like it’s a half-marathon you’ve not really trained for.
I fear, however, that some Seahawks fans are seeing things differently. That while they’re not quite getting their hopes up — they’re allowing themselves to view the roster Seattle announced yesterday as worthy of some optimism.
I feel the opposite.
It looks bad.
So much work needs to be done.
I think the roster is some way off what they had even in 2011.
That shouldn’t be a surprise. This is year one of the rebuild. It was year two in 2011. The difference this time is they weren’t starting from an expansion franchise-level team they inherited from Tim Ruskell. Yet the depth and gold-standard talent is missing and they haven’t drafted or signed the entire LOB, added Marshawn Lynch or brought in the likes of K.J. Wright and various others.
I’ve seen several people argue in the comments section here and on my YouTube channel about what the Seahawks have.
A chap called Aaron, for example, posted the following:
“Every skill position on the offense minus the QB has star power in the starters. I understand there’s a depth issue here, but you have to give them the offensive talent. It’s there. You put any true top 10 QB on this squad and the offense becomes elite.”
The word ‘elite’ is used so liberally these days.
When you strip it down, things become a bit more realistic.
I’m not for a second suggesting everyone is rubbish or there isn’t any hope for the future. Yet I think we need to analyse what they actually have.
Let’s start with the offense.
D.K. Metcalf is an excellent player but I still think he has a ways to go to reach the top of the game at his position. Tyler Lockett is clearly an excellent and reliable player. Yet these two — who aren’t supported by much else at receiver — will be reliant on Geno Smith throwing the football in 2022.
Arguably Seattle’s two best players will be hamstrung by the quarterback situation and this could hamper their impact potential.
The tight end group is very much a question mark. Will Dissly may be a solid blocker but in 31 games over the last two seasons he’s accumulated only 482 yards and three touchdowns. Noah Fant has had an underwhelming career so far and Colby Parkinson has shown very little in the game time he’s been afforded.
I’m excited to see if Rashaad Penny can continue his form at the end of last season and I really like Ken Walker. Yet Penny still has to prove he can stay healthy and produce for a longer period than a brief flourish at the end of his contract year. Walker has a hernia that Pete Carroll is being worryingly evasive about. Right now, I just want him to be available.
It’s been pleasing to see Travis Homer and Deejay Dallas look brighter in pre-season than previous years but it’s hard to muster much enthusiasm if either is thrust into extended playing time.
On the offensive line there’s plenty of promise at offensive tackle but that’s what it is. Promise and hope for the future. This is fine — you don’t expect any more than that from rookie tackles. Growing pains are inevitable though and there might be some ugly moments this season. We just have to give them time and hope they can develop into good, quality players. They will probably not start their careers at that level — probably far from it.
And then there’s the quarterback situation. I know some people have convinced themselves that Geno Smith can be adequate. The cold, stark reality is Geno Smith is still, believe it or not, Geno Smith. The only alternative remains Drew Lock. The people suggesting this is the worst quarterback room in the league have a valid point.
That’s the offense. If we were reflecting on this unit for a NFC West foe, we’d be grinning from ear to ear.
It’s all about the rookie tackles bedding in and a running game being sustained to set the table for the future. That has to be the hope and the aim. If the running game isn’t strong and consistent, this unit could have major, major problems and the quarterback — unlike previous years — will not be there to bail you out.
On defense, the unit lacks stars. The hope is that someone like Darrell Taylor can emerge as one but the truth is we just don’t know. He showed tremendous promise in 2021 but going from what we saw last year to even a 2018 Frank Clark level player is a big step. Let’s hope he can show it.
They have a collection of big-bodied interior defenders but lack a truly disruptive pass rusher in the middle. I’m not convinced Uchenna Nwosu will be a difference maker. Alton Robinson deserves a chance to (finally) show what he can do but will he ever get it? Boye Mafe — while filled with talent and potential — will likely experience the same ups and downs as the young offensive tackles.
There is a chance in the future that Taylor and Mafe could be a frightening double-act. Again though, it’s more hope than guarantee at this point. The Seahawks are trying to develop players to solve a long-lasting problem (X-factor pass rushers). It’s good that they have two projects but the reality is they won’t start the season with a proven blue-chip defensive lineman.
Linebacker depth is bizarrely thin. Big things are expected of Jordyn Brooks but I still think he has a lot to prove — especially now that Bobby Wagner has moved on. If he was to get injured, it could be a crisis without an obvious solution.
In the secondary, the cornerbacks are already banged up and hurting. Michael Jackson has been the big winner in pre-season and should get a start. The two rookies — Coby Bryant and Tariq Woolen — are showing promise. Yet, once again, there’s very little proven quality here. It’s just more hope and optimism that answers will emerge.
At safety you have a very solid, dependable player in Quandre Diggs but not someone who is going to necessarily tilt games in your favour. Then there’s Jamal Adams — a player who might well have already had the best days of his career. He’s often injured and facing a make-or-break season. It’s fair to call that trade an expensive disaster so far. It’s hard to invest any faith in Adams staying healthy, let alone providing the big impact his price-tag demands.
As with the offense, there’s some young hope for the future but not enough big-time talent to feel confident projecting this as a unit that can have major success. Throw in a rookie defensive coordinator and some changes to the scheme — and it might also be some time before everyone settles into a rhythm. It’s been so long since the Seahawks rushed the passer properly and turned the ball over regularly you’d be forgiven for wondering if they remember how to do it.
Finally, special teams. Jason Myers continues to hint that his one-good year in 2020 was an outlier while the kick coverage was appalling in pre-season. For a team looking to play close to the vest this season, this wasn’t a good sign.
For me this roster looks ripe to struggle. I suspect this team is somewhere between 2010 and 2011. Remember — in 2010 they already had Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Chris Clemons and Marshawn Lynch. They had experience at quarterback and a few other experienced players. But it was year-one of a rebuild so they had some big weak areas too (a bit like this year).
They won seven games in 2010 but let’s not forget four of those wins came from within a division Seattle won at 7-9. They also defeated the 2-14 Carolina Panthers.
They have no such luxury this year. The NFC West is much harder. There probably won’t be four wins to claim. They might be able to find them elsewhere against the likes of the Lions, Falcons, Jets and Giants — although it’s a stretch to think they’ll win all of their perceived ‘winnable’ games.
Contests against the Chiefs, Buccs and Chargers could be terrifying experiences.
For what it’s worth — and I may live to regret saying this — I kind of fancy them in week one against Denver. I could see them pulling off an upset. Admittedly, I can also see a very long evening too. It should be a fascinating game.
This roster has the look of a team primed to pick in the top five or six in 2023 and I don’t think first or second overall is out of the question.
I’m perfectly comfortable with that. They need another draft to add more talent because there simply isn’t enough right now. Short term pain for longer term gain has always been the best approach this year after trading Russell Wilson. I’m tempted to give them credit for committing to it by sticking to their guns at quarterback. It would’ve been easy enough to make some half-baked trade to marginally upgrade. This almost looks like a stoic, disciplined commitment to mediocrity. Either that or complete misplaced confidence.
I sense fans overly familiar with certain players are elevating the roster to a level that is unwarranted and I fear those same fans will react accordingly when things don’t go as they expect.
They need so much more. This could be ugly.
My suggestion would be to embrace it and look forward to the return of college football and the start of the biggest draft season this franchise has arguably ever had.
If you missed it yesterday check out my piece on the non-quarterback prospects eligible for the 2023 draft.
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